Little Blog In The Big Woods

All is swell; with police.

2008-07-15T14:20:00.004-05:00

Just a quickie. Thank goodness IndyMac is "back in business!" (according to CNN) - but things still seem a tad dicey- since they needed police today, to keep "angry customers" in line-

Just a little minor note there in the news.

And here Oliphant's input - on AuntFannie, etc-

So how do they keep up the fantasy, when our official court jesters proclaim the truths so loudly? It's a mystery.

I'm on my way out of town for several days- so input here will be slender; though ya never know, I might manage one from the road.

Hang in there.

Media cahoots

2008-07-12T09:26:00.010-05:00

8:30 AM This is a time sensitive post; I'm sure the links here will look differently in a few hours.

But right now we've got a spectacular example of how the Mainstream Media is indeed in cahoots with the "financial sector"- they're not just reporting the news- they do tweak it, a bit.

Right now their action is perhaps admirable- so they think, anyway. They are trying to fight off a real full-blown PANIC in the stock markets.

Take a look here; at the NY Times Business section-

It's all about how the two huge quasi-governmental mortgage corporations, known as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; crashed so hard on the stock market yesterday that the US federal government was hours away from "nationalizing" them- (though we don't call it that here, of course). And trumpeting how this disaster was avoided. (Teresa, you'll find more than you want to know about Fannie and Freddie there.)

Do you see, anywhere, any mention of another huge mortgage company; Indy Mac?

Shortly after the stock markets closed on Friday - it WAS "seized" by the government, as being completely insolvent and dysfunctional-

According to Reuters, "The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said."

Golly, that sounds like a headline to me. But it's totally buried under the constant reassurances that "all is well! don't panic! NO REALLY!! DON'T PANIC!!"

Maybe we should panic?

But you can't find a trace of this story on the front pages of the major US newspapers- yet. Though it happened last night.

(And, sure enough; shortly after I posted this; if you really dig, you now CAN find the story on the front page of the NYT - in the tiniest font they use, a link elsewhere, not a story.)

(ah, and now, 15 minutes later, the Washington Post; likewise, tiny font link on front page; to a nice reassuring story: "But John M. Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, said IndyMac's failure was a 'unique' incident that 'does not signal a direction for the industry as a whole.' ")

--------------------------

1:30PM (CDT) - the BBC has finally put the story up as an "Other Top Stories"; in middle font; still following "Pope to apologize for sex scandal", though.

The whole story has now disappeared from the NYT front page- it's not only inobvious, but if you search for "indy" the result is - 0; it's not there at all. It's barely visible in Business; tiniest font, very obscure, as "mortgage lender seized"; which is also the language of The Washington Post.

The Google News compiler has been varying all day- right this second- the story is NOT findable; but it was a half hour ago.

------------------

2PM - FINALLY! CNN- headlines it in the Business section, though still not screaming on the main front page- "may be the most expensive bank failure ever..." nah, what story?

---------------------------------

4PM - Story is now gone from BBC front page, though the Pope is still apologizing for Australian pedophile priests in exactly the same place; the collapse of Indymac is now only to be found on the Business page; replaced in "Other Top Stories" by: "France Rejects Veiled Muslim Wife". Cute eyes.

--------------------------------------------

Next day- CNN wins the spin prize! NOW, it's the top front page feature; big photgraph- "Back in Business: IndyMac Reopens Monday!" No, it's not back in business, it's still in collapse. Yes, the doors will reopen, but it's mostly going to be for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to start paying newly printed money to depositors- since IndyMac was broke. The FDIC wants to find a buyer for IndyMac within 90 days- but at the moment, no one is offering a dime for it.

BBC now has "Key US mortgage lender collapses" as a subheading under Business.

NYT - no mention at all on front page; no mention at all on Business, to my astonishment; but if you go to the "whole paper" Most Popular page; under Most Blogged - it's #1 - and I don't think that's my fault. :-)

Progress

2008-07-11T11:13:00.003-05:00

It seems to be a day for head-shaking over human foolishness- what with Wall Street and Fannie-Freddie on greased skids and all- so this just really seems totally appropriate to add to the soup-

New Wearable Feedbags Let Americans Eat More, Move Less

At last! :-)

Garden Triage

2008-07-09T12:32:00.008-05:00

A couple weeks ago Sharon generously exposed herself in public- as a backslider in the garden. She had let her weeds get out of control... again...

Any old-time food gardener got a good chuckle out of that piece. Yes, indeed, we all do it. Pretty much every year. There are plenty of gardeners out there who do have weedless, spotless, picture perfect gardens- but I will guarantee those folks either don't really need the food; or they have secret help sneaking in by moonlight; or they're just not doing anything else with their life; at all.

What do you do when the weeds have taken over? That's not a trick question- you can, easily, do the wrong thing, and lose even more time and energy.

When my boys were small Spouse and I ran a garden every year that consisted of 7 blocks, each one 50 feet square. One would be all corn; one all potatoes, one tomatoes/peppers, one all vines; etc. And we rotated plantings each year, to decrease disease, etc. Plans in the computer, year by year.

My point being- I've killed a LOT of weeds in my life; I'm good at it, and know how.

When Spice got here, she was eager, frothing, fulminating, to have a garden. Totally in love with the idea; days spent with seed catalogs, compiling lists; computer diagrams; seed packets, 15 kinds of tomatoes... and no real experience.

Spice grew up at high altitude in Colorado; family runs a big ranch. Her mom had a garden there, when she was growing up. I took her aside, as gently as I could and told her- "My dear, I love gardens too, but you really need to understand something. I'm serious; very very serious. Are you listening?" She assured me she was.

"We have two things here in Minnesota that you do not have in Colorado; that make running a garden very different.

" We have soil. And we have rain."

Ha ha ha, I hear you laughing, but believe me, it's caused a lot of tears over the years, and still does. Don't turn your back on the quack grass- it will eat you.

Part of this is the curse of good soil. Really good soil. Those of you suffering with poor soils, I recommend you do NOT google "Fayette silt loam" and get the technical aspects; it will break your heart. I've got some of the very best agricultural soils in the world here; which is not an accident; that was the deciding factor when Spouse and I bought the place.

So our weeds really tend to take off; and take over, if you give them any chance at all. Every year, year after year, they DO get that chance, one way or another. Maybe it will rain for a week straight, making it impossible to work the soil. Maybe you'll break your little toe; making it nearly impossible to spend any real time on your knees. Etc.

Now- "How To Garden" - is a topic that people write whole books about. Really! You didn't know that? I'm not going to shoot for covering the entire topic in this post; I want to make ONE point; just one.

Many beginners, faced with a garden section buried in weeds, will do exactly the wrong thing; partly out of guilt; partly out of ignorance. They'll try to weed it.

And where will they start weeding? Obviously- where the crop is smallest, weakest, and needs the most help.

Poor wittle potato plants; they're buried under the foxtail and pigweed; totally stunted. You need my love, more than those big potato plants over there..

Wrong, wrong wrong wrong wrong.

Are you putting in all this hard work because you need the food? Yes? Harden your heart- and put your work into making your very strongest plants stronger. Weed the best of the patch first.

Look- the fact that you've got a big chunk of garden out of control is pretty definite proof that you've bitten off more than you can currently chew; fantasies and intentions aside. You have not been able to keep up.

The overwhelming probability is that you're not going to be able to keep up next week, either.

If you put your work into boosting your best plants- they should make food for your family; the better you care for them, the more food.

If you start trying to rehabilitate your puniest plants- a) they're puny right now; it may well be too late for them to produce anything this year, even if you get them cleared; b) the shock of getting full sun after weeks of all that nice shade from the lambsquarters may set them back; c) their root systems are so tiny that pulling all those healthy weeds nearby is quite likely to harm your crop plants significantly; d) chances are you're going to be interrupted in this chore before you get around to weeding the good parts of the patch, good intentions notwithstanding-

So the upshot is, you will sweat like the dickens, release a few plants which cannot respond, and the good plants will get buried deeper as they struggle along with no help- so you'll lose any crop they might have had, too. And all your sweat.

Here's the rule: Save the best first.

IF if if you find yourself with lots of time available, you can try to save some of the weaker stuff. As soon as possible, though- you will benefit from facing reality; and plowing under the lost parts; either replanting to a fall crop, or cover crop, or whatever you do to keep those weeds from going to seed.

Tender hearts are good in lettuce, cabbage, and artichokes; but pity for puny vegetables is a waste. Plow 'em under.

(And so why am I writing about this just now? Spice, it turns out, has good tender maternal instincts...)

:-)

The Future of The World... Illustrated.

2008-07-05T17:54:00.008-05:00

Today and recently the blogosphere is dripping with blog producers and blog consumers lathering about - The Future. And if there is one.

This is entirely understandable, and believe me, I'm not smirking at all those silly people.

We are, indeed, standing on the edge of the cliff here. Read Sharon; read Ilargi and Stoneleigh.

The thing is, I've known this for a long long time. I do believe in physics, I do, I do. And if you do- this collapse of industrial insanity has been inevitable for a very long time.

But how, forsooth, to explain that? Lucidly, and convincingly, to folks who have not spent decades looking and listening, and studying. What we are all taught, growing up, is that "progress" is glorious, inevitable, and endless- and good. They pound that in hard. It's not easy getting folks to the point where they can see it's a dogma based on fallacies and illusions. And it's not fun.

Luckily for us, California has produced several years of completely clear data. It isn't necessary for you to understand "the science of economics" (ROTFL!); or physics, or the chemistry of global warming. You just need 4th grade arithmatic.

California is burning, yes? Badly. Happened last year; and the year before. And what are they doing about it all?

Not planning, that's for sure. Here it is: the reaction to the entire state burning down- the reaction of the wealthiest, most forward looking people on the planet.

Cost of firefighting in California; by year:

Can you say "impotent"?

The fact is; our world governments are all in this state at the moment; utterly unable to cope with reality. The various forces at work are able, time and again, to prevent action.

Manifestly- California needs to agree- fires are more costly than they used to be; we must budget more for dealing with them.

Manifestly- the state of California has failed to do anything about the problem, year after year.

Reality, physics, will prevail; every time. Which is why California is on fire again.

Another litany of years of inaction is here; NYT: Asleep At The Spigot.

This is perhaps the largest problem I see for humanity at the moment- regardless of how or why we got here- our joint decision making processes are universally paralyzed.

Yes?

Universally paralyzed.

Pick a disaster; any disaster- as the pundits are sifting through the rubble, you will find this phrase, over and over: "repeated warnings were ignored..."

How we got here; why; and what happens next- is tome material; cannot be crammed into a blog.

What do you need to do about this? Realize- you're on your own.

Technology will not save us. Because any truly revolutionary technology will be fought tooth and nail; and subverted, and co-opted; by the same forces that have paralyzed our states.

Policy will not save us. Ditto. They'll be holding policy discussions at our funerals.

What might save us is- us.

Communities, working to stick together, and face realities.

The best initiative I know of there is Rob Hopkins' "Transition Towns" -

Tons more on his website; and in video/audio.

There's hope there; if you're willing to roll up your sleeves.

Python wisdom

2008-07-05T08:46:00.004-05:00

I know I've been remiss here in the past days; please stick with me, I'll be back.

The problem is a lack of time, and personal energy (got plenty of electricity, since the sun is shining daily just now) - and my personal curse, which my sister the shrink calls an "educated disability"; i.e., the inability to give a short version - of anything.

There's no shortage of stuff to write about; the problem is that when I start thinking about a post; it gets longer, and longer,- can't leave THAT aspect out... oh, and , it connects over here...

Just currently stuck in that rut. I'll work it out.

Meanwhile; here is nice story, relevant in many many ways to today's changing world- about the floods- and dead fish.

Tsk, tsk; all that flooding and now there are tons of fish rotting on the lawns. Hard not to giggle.

As the article points out- "Carp are rich in phosphorus and nitrogen, so they also can be buried in gardens or used in composting if you can stand the smell."

It's a free resource, folks! La Crunchella DeSpill has been subverting the masses to get folks to hoard the family pee- and recycle it through the tomatoes- obviously, in this changing world, we can't afford to just toss away all that fertilizer. And it's obviously, also, a gift, for heaven's sakes, from the Universal powers, that we shouldn't spurn. Obviously.

I have this trick brain that sometimes just fills in the blanks for me; way ahead of where I'm asking it for input, and in this case, it flashed here, to the brilliant bit in "Monty Python And The Holy Grail".

It's perfect. "Bring out your carp!"

Clang.

Man, somebody in Janesville Wisconsin really needs to DO this.

Counterweight-

2008-07-02T07:56:00.003-05:00

Can't go work on the soddy just this second; intense little thunderstorm passing just north at the moment, with wet edges- so I was poking around on the news, and found this. An encyclopedia for simple living.

I haven't dug through it all yet- but so far, I really really like these people and what they're doing. You can buy the books; or get a CD - or- it's all available for free download. Hm. I don't think they're in it for the money.

And they seem very careful about checking and re-checking their information; and about having actually tried everything they write about (so it seems).

And the section of potties has a couple versions that look like the THWASPCO; a little, though mine would be the rolls royce version.

Where did I find it? A tiny note in the New York Times science section, right beside the huge, noisy thing on "are undersea volcanoes REALLY melting the arctic ice!!??". (The answer, astonishingly, is , duh, no.)

So here in the midst of the crumbling world- there are still some good folks- and they're still doing good things- for you and me.

I feel a little better. :-) Just a little; but it helps.

Hank- you're in Berkeley; are these folks as wonderful as they look to be?

More gallows humor

2008-07-01T16:53:00.002-05:00

I've been out and down for a few days, hence the long dry spell. Going to be working hard in the next few days on the soddy- which actually makes it more likely I'll get a good meaty post up here soon.

Meanwhile, for your amusement: $47,000,000.00 for...?

Cripes, I wish somebody would pay me for MY bellyflops. Not that I've ever had any as big as his.

Why is this even legal?

sigh. Ah, well, incredulity is more fun than mourning, so that's the reaction I recommend.

busy busy

2008-06-23T09:19:00.004-05:00

We had a lovely Whole Planet Picnic; and generated a lot of nice ashes for the crops. Attendance was down just a tad- I'm thinking it may well have been the price of gas, in fact. More people than usual had responded "sure, we're going to try to come" - and then didn't. And it may have been the realization later that it was just crazy expensive to drive 80 miles, now.

That's fine, of course, though we missed a bunch of folks. We're assuming they had their own version at home - though it likely didn't match our spectacle-

Hope yours was as nice! By all means, let us know here. I still think this is a tradition that has legs- more folks will join us each year.

Right now- I'm off to lay sod in the cool of the morning; boy it's sweaty work in the noonday sun. Pics of our "barn-sinking" coming up soon.

Too too utterly!

2008-06-17T17:13:00.002-05:00

Wow. Just got this from Deb, in a comment on Whole Planet Picnic Day- and it's way too wonderful to stay buried there-

---------------------------------------------------------------

I couldn't resist taking at stab at a Whole Planet Picnic song to the Teddy Bear music. Just rough but feel free to edit.

"The Planet Picnic"

If you wander through Greenpa’s woods today, you’re sure of a big surprise
If you wander out in the woods today, you better go in disguise
For every Greenee that ever there was
Will gather there together because
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

If you partake of the fun today, and make the way through the bog
Folks trickle in, old and young, Smidgens, teenagers, dog
And run and skip and play and dance
With guitars, flutes, harmonicas per chance
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

And when the da-ark is creeping in, you better go grab your stick
For the biggest bonfire you’ve ever seen, will flame up in the nick
Weenies, marshmallows and S’Mores,
Jokes, guffaws, and ghostly stories
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

Don’t bring those things that pollute the world, no paper plates, plastic spoons
We’ll have more fun without that stuff while celebrating 20th June
And all the time we’ll breathe clean air
And twirl around with nary a care
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

If you meet Greenpa just pinch your nose or he will water your eyes
For he gave up baths for this Earth-Lent and now he’s attracting flies
For every Greenpa that ever there was
Will find a way to effuse because
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

As the evening deepens down, you’ll see all the fireflies
The frogs will hop, the children hunt, you’ll see the Frisbees glide
And homemade music will fill the air
And create traditions for the next year
Today’s the day the Whole Planet has their picnic.

As the big party starts to end, you’ll wonder how you survived
Without this reminder now and then that happiness is alive
It’s a lovely clear and summery day
And surely most of them are that way
Everyday the Whole Planet has a Picnic!

At midnight all will pull out their sleeping bags and go to bed
Because they’re tired little Greenee folks.

Deb
--------------------------------------------------------------------

:-) Wow! Deb, my dear, you totally get it. Many many thanks.

This should provide inspiration for additional verses, don't you think?...

Humor. maybe.

2008-06-17T13:06:00.005-05:00

Now that T.Boone Pickens has announced oil has in fact peaked, there's hardly anything left to talk about right now.

So, I got this in my email yesterday- and it did indeed crack me up. So I thought I would share it with you- maybe it will make your day brighter- in some twisted way.

---------------------------------------

From: efcc.financial.refund@gmail.com
Subject: Mr. Robert S. Mueller, III (Director)Federal Bureau of Investigation
Date: June 16, 2008 2:44:05 PM CDT
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Reply-To: efcc-financial.refund@webmail.co.za

Mr. Robert S. Mueller, III (Director)
The Federal Bureau of Investigation
Telephone: (206)-339-7444

Attention: Fund Beneficiary,

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Has discovered through our intelligence Monitoring Network, that you have an on going transaction with a Financial Institution in Nigeria, as the owner of the said sum $1,500,000.00 USD.

So the Federal Bureau Of Investigation (FBI) Washinton, DC in conjunction with The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Has screened through our various Monitoring Networks and has been confirmed and notified that the transaction you have with the Financial Institution is Legal and you have the Lawful Right to claim your due fund. We advise you to go ahead with the transaction as we are monitoring all their services and networks. Be advised that any letter or claims notification received from anybody or company should be forwarded to us with immediate effect.

Meanwhile, you are advised to follow the procedure of the Financial Institution. They have their own legal procedure which we have examined and confirmed legal. Follow their instructions while you keep us updated for more details. You are advised to contact the necessary office for more details of transfer as we are monitoring every move now.

Please, be advised and be aware that your funds had been insured and the necessary charges would be taken care of by you, as confirmed by the Monitoring network. For your own good you are advised to confirm any transaction or lottery promo you have either involved yourself with in the past to enable us trace this scammers. Only the Financial Institution has been confirmed Legal any other are still under investigation, and so many others are scam, most especially from Nigeria and Africa.

You are to contact the Director of Operations Mr. Ibrahim Lamorde with the information below in regards to more details on your funds.

Mr. Ibrahim Lamorde (Director of Operations)
Phone: +234 1 742 1060
E-mail: efcc-financial.refund@webmail.co.za

If you need to contact me at any stage please do not hesitate to call.
(206)-339-7444

Sincerely,

Mr. Robert S. Mueller, III (Director)
The Federal Bureau of Investigation

---------------------------------------------------

One is, almost, tempted to call that phone numbers, and inquire.

Now I ask you, is that just totally hilarious, or not?

Simultaneously, I do find it sad, and disturbing- because-

A) There are people in this world who are SO DUMB that they think there are people out there, SO DUMB that they would fall for such astonishingly transparent bullpuckey.

and

B) The people in A- are correct. Yes, there are people so dumb they will believe this.

Clearly, my mind has boggled. But I don't see where.

Whole Planet Picnic-2008

2008-06-16T14:56:00.003-05:00

Time marches on, regardless of floods, famines, fires, and fools. (and yeah, it's seriously scary how many other links are available to put there...)

We've reached the middle of 2008 already. The growing season seems to be barely begun, but Friday June 20 is the Summer Solstice- half the year's sunlight will be gone by.

Time for The Whole Planet Picnic. We're having our usual one, which means a big bonfire. It's a cold year; the heat will be welcome. And we're not wasting anything- the wood is in the way, and actually we're adding some excess pines to it this year specifically to generate some available potash- fertilizer. Can't afford to buy it- but we can harvest our own. The bonfire ash will be carefully swept up when it's cool, and put on our crops, which need it badly.

The whole exposition on what and why can be found here, in the posts for last year's huge event.

It's a community building event, we hope. And community may be where most of the hope lies.

Please consider hosting a Picnic of your own, for your own neighborhood. Spice is busy making phone calls to roust folks out of their ruts. Wish you all could join us!

Time to relax- a little, anyway, and just watch the fireflies and kids; listen to the frogs and the nighthawks. Anyway.

lies and damned lies- and models

2008-06-15T08:53:00.014-05:00

Stoneleigh, over at The Automatic Earth, cites some articles with a bit of discussion about macroeconomic models yesterday, pointing out some of the limitations there. (Among the basic assumptions in the most accepted models; consumers are rational!!!! - and - all have the same preferences!!!! Yeah, right.)

I'd like to add a bit of insider info on "models", per se. I started writing this as a comment on TAE, but it kept growing-

---------------------

The advent of computers got plenty of academics, in all disciplines, excited. Hey, we can use Big Math! And arrive at New Truths! Look at how many things we can throw into the soup, and still calculate! Man, you can correlate everything!

The reality, of course, remains the old bit about "Garbage In, Garbage Out." And the increasing complexity of "models" has made it both much more likely that there will be a bit of garbage in the model somewhere, and hugely less likely that anyone will ever find and remove it. Who actually examines the math- bit by bit? In truth; virtually no one, except the author; not even the academic reviewers will put in the hours, days, necessary to truly proofread these monsters.

I've published some calculations on carbon cycle stuff- with surprising conclusions; and as far as I can tell, no one has ever even checked my multiplication. I got two kinds of reactions- with no checking: "wow, cool!"; and "I don't believe it." Check the math? Check basic assumptions? nah- why?

But "models" still carry a great cachet of believability- in the Congressional hearing, "but the model says..." will trump any expert opinion to the contrary.

Math does not lie- we so desperately want to believe.

Disraeli nailed it long ago; "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statisics." I greatly fear that models may constitute a 4th kind; with a power even greater than statistics.

This first became obvious to me when I acquired my first Macintosh computer (1984, 128K). MacPaint was such a breakthrough program; absolutely astonishing. I was hopeless as an artist with pen and ink; but here, the computer will keep the lines straight; and- you can go back and fix anything, pixel by pixel if necessary.

One of the first things I did was make a diagram of a biological/genetic project I was working on at the time. Took me half a day (no time at all, compared to finding an artist, teaching them what I wanted it to show, etc.) and looked totally professional when done.

And totally convincing. Wow- this looks like- The Truth. Neat, clean, and logical.

And I knew damn well it was NOT a proven hypothesis; there were plenty of doubts possible, and remaining; but I'd made the diagram up as an argument, and they didn't show. Everybody who looked at it was convinced. And on totally inadequate information.

I was so impressed- and frightened- by the power of the Pretty Diagram that I immediately, made up another:

Just clean up the presentation- and it will look like the absolute truth.

My insider's info: the mathematical models used to describe the dynamics of salmon populations- are junk. And most relevant fisheries biologists, and plenty of ecologists, know it.

Primary evidence- uh, they don't work; the salmon fishery in California is closed, this year, since the number of returning fish dropped to 5% of normal. Catastrophic. In fact, the mathematical ecologists have known for decades that the original salmon models are junk.

Once launched, models take on a life of their own. A major purpose for them is to communicate with lawmakers. Having acquainted the lawmakers with Model A- it's almost impossible for an agency to go back to the legislature the next year, and say "oh, incidentally, we've discovered that Model A is total crap."

So what you do is refine Model A. The problem being, Model A still contains crap; and arguably, crap, multiplied by anything, is still crap.

Models, regardless of the field they are applied to; whether economics, ecology, or global weather patterns- are like all technologies. They have no intrinsic ethics; they are true only to the extent their inputs are accurate, and honest. And that's assuming that the model has any chance of reflecting reality in the first place; by no means a given.

They are a particularly powerful tool for liars- because there are so few people who are qualified to refute them. And they are very seductive even for those with the best of intentions. Young scientists get sucked into the worlds of modeling constantly- becoming enamored of the power, and promise- and gradually becoming apologists for the entire process. And; well; this model right here- which they helped write...

One more technology where the potential for abuse and misuse is immense- mostly unrecognized- and not policed.

The salmon models are blindingly simple, compared to macro-economic models.

One somewhat objective way of looking at it:

Salmon models can be tested, and possibly refined. Did the predictions turn out true-ish?

Global warming models also- can be tested.

Economics models- uh- we're immediately out of the realm of hard numbers, into the worlds of fantasy and opinion. Are the premises true? Opinion. Numbers true? No physicist, or ecologist, would accept the kinds of measurements economists claim as accurate. There are simply too many assumptions, ifs, maybes, blatant guesses, and we hopes in all those economic data. And lies.

Ah, but the model shows- this is true.

And I can make a model to show anything I want.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok. So why, I hear you cry, is this discussion of any value to me? I come here for information on how to build potty houses, for crying out loud. And the occasional bit of stunningly wonderful poetry.

One of the basic problems we face is the increasingly difficult task of figuring out who is telling us the truth about our world, and its possible futures.

There's really no way of escaping the need to be able to judge your source's veracity. You need to know how to guess; is this person lying? a fool? misinformed?

It's not easy; and is not going to get any easier. Perhaps it will be useful to realize- if they're basing their claims on some complex and unexaminable "model" - and they're quite vehement about how this proves their claim- beware, oh, beware.

------------------------------------

Update, 6/16; an article in the Washington Post today contains this bit of comment, regarding the mortgage bubble collapse- " 'Nobody had models for that,' said David E. Zimmer, then one of the executives at People's Choice, a subprime lender based in Irvine. 'Nobody had predicted people going into default in their first three mortgage payments.' "

So- models- that did not work- were being used to guide actions. Result? Millions of foreclosures- suicides- etc, etc.

just can't help myself

2008-06-13T09:41:00.008-05:00

It finally got to me. I have NO time for this, but I just can't stop myself.

The Stock Market- the "financial sector" - is entirely populated with absolute idiots.

And, just for fun; most of them are certifiable gambling addicts, to boot. Self-deluding, in the extreme.

Two stories, running simultaneously in the New York Times, right now; prove this beautifully.

Story 1; "Oil and Food Push Prices Higher".

Gasoline prices rose 5.2 percent in May and were up 21 percent compared with a year ago, according to the report, released by the Labor Department on Friday. On an annual basis, inflation ran at 4.2 percent compared to May 2007. The rise in the index was slightly more than economists had forecast.

Food prices rose again in May as Americans paid 5 percent more for foods and beverages than a year ago.

... Minus the cost of food and gasoline, inflation was 0.2 percent for the month.

Ok, got that?

Story 2; "Stocks Up After Inflation Data." This is the entire story, here; a note;

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is extending its gains in early trading after a pair of economic reports point to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates stable when it meets later this month. The Labor Department's report on core inflation, which measures price increases but strips out volatile food and energy costs, met investor expectations.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for June has fallen to 56.7 from 59.8 last month. The market had expected the reading would remain unchanged.

Taken together the reports seem to make the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, rather than raising them, when it meets June 24-25.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up about 124 at the 12,266 level.

Oh. My. God.

So- the market is ignoring the real inflation rate- by stripping out food and energy. Why? Because they want to, is why. It makes them feel better. And they're ignoring the fact that their pundits thought wrong on consumer "sentiment" (otherwise known as "consumer confidence", a measure of how willing consumers are to believe in the future, and spend money).

Pundits right? Yay! Pundits wrong? Yay!

My jaw is just dropped, right on the floor, at how anyone can claim, with a straight face, that these morons know what they're doing.

The only possible action from a responsible government would be to move in with troops, and lock 100% of the inhabitants of the "financial sector" in a loony bin. Or maybe Guantanamo? They're about to go out of business there, I understand. We could consider it a Federal employment Initiative; keep that facility working.

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On the good side: also in the NYT right now: Speculators Become Targets.

Legislators are aware that constituents are angry about speculators driving up food prices (and fuel prices). And they're starting to call, seriously, for action.

Did your emails and calls a couple weeks ago have anything to do with that?

YOU BET THEY DID!!! I guarantee it. It's quite possible that your email was the first one that staffer read, and they kind of blew it off. But then they got another one. And another. Hey, it's a trend. And the talk started- and here is a nice fat article in the NYT- and rising awareness.

Thanks, guys, and congratulations.

Be kind to your web footed friend

2008-06-10T09:51:00.002-05:00

For the duck may be somebody's mother...

Old campfire song. Lots of need for webbed feet around here these days.

Just quick; we got another 2.5" of rain; on totally saturated ground; wound up with 2 feet of water in the cellar. Big mess. Pumped it out, which took more than half a day with our little pump.

That cellar has been dry for 20 years. It's on a hilltop, for crying out loud- so it would stay dry (not attached to the Little House). Trying to figure out how to keep it dry.

More rain on the way, storms predicted tonight, Weds, Thurs, and Fri- running in to town for supplies while the sun shines. Sheesh.

re-pre occupied

2008-06-08T09:00:00.007-05:00

Flooding. Again; here. For those not aware, last fall we lost our walking tractor in the floods (a 20 year old Mainline, worked fine). But it wasn't on our farm; it was in town, undergoing pre-harvest maintenance; and the water came over the dikes, so that, and our other commercial mower (17 hp diesel) were totally underwater for 3 days. Not worth fixing.

This time, the new Grillo is under a roof, on our farm; and oddly enough I didn't build anything here on flood plain; so it's perfectly safe.

Our neighbors are not, however; rain's still falling, scheduled to do so for another 24 hours. We've had a measly 4" so far; to the south, they've had 10 so far-

We did spend an hour in the root cellar last night- tornado warning; the real thing, and tracking right towards us. It missed, though I haven't been over the farm yet to see what-all happened. busy busy! Hey, the DSL is still working!

I'm feeling bad for the neighbors. All their newly planted corn and beans are going to be under water or washed out, with deep gullies cut in the newly plowed fields sitting there naked in the rain. My own fields will be unaffected; but the creek down in our valley is now running high and dark brown, carrying the neighbors' soil away.

Traditional row crop agriculture is now going to be much less tenable, as global warming proceeds, for a flock of reasons. You hear about drought, and change, as problems; but the one I see as devastating is the great increase in torrential rainfall- the rapid runoff cuts right through those nice "conservation tillage" practices; cutting gullies, stripping soil.

Farmers find those gullies embarrassing; a sign of poor stewardship- so mostly they tend to hide them. Plow over, pretend it never happened. But that soil is now gone, forever. And the fertility.

Farm exports! For decades, we've crowed that we feed the world! The strength of our wonderful farm economy!

Apart from any quibbles about that- what we actually export, when we ship soybean oil to China is- our soil. Our children's future.

Now, faster than ever; much faster.

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So, after getting out, during a break in the rain- hey, we've got a foot of water in the "root cellar"- also the storm cellar, and our seed cellar- not good. Got a little electric pump running on the backup generator- but it's a major pain. The cellar is like on the top of a hill- should it be flooding? Heck no- but the ground is so wet it's sheeting off; and it is finding its way down the entryway (which was badly designed; long story).

Other than that- it's wet, the food garden is fine; we've got a ton of frogs singing in the pond that were quiet yesterday; trees are fine except for a few showing leaf damage from high storm winds hitting soft new leaves.

never a dull.

polit icks, forsooth-

2008-06-04T16:42:00.003-05:00

Just a peep. I begin to have hopes, for Obama. He's pretty darn smart. He's just managed to dodge Hillary's attempt to muscle into the Vice President's job.

According to the BBC; he's appointed a "panel" of 3 heavy duty Democrats to do the "search" for the veep, and make the formal recommendation. One of the panel members is Caroline Kennedy.

Ok, this is like really, really smart. They're not going to recommend Hillary (my god, what an insanely bad idea); not in a million years. And now, Obama can just point and say "see, it wasn't me, at all."

What will the panel say about Hillary?

Here's my prediction: "Of course we gave long thought to Ms. Clinton, but we quickly agreed that she is simply too dynamic an individual, and too important to the future of this country and the Democratic Party, for her to be buried in what is, after all, a post with uncertain and unclear responsibilities. She will be of far greater value to Mr. Obama's administration in some other post; and he will be asking for her input on that point soon."

Wanna bet? :-)

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oh, and; I'm inside resting my feet from my mowing orgy- the new Grillo is here, and in spite of an owners manual in 6 languages, apparently translated into English from Servo-Spelunkian, went together with great simplicity, and cuts like a dream, using virtually zip for fuel. I'm in heaven. Short break, water, more mowing.

life intrudes

2008-06-02T12:49:00.004-05:00

Way back there, I promised a next post with deep meaningful philosophical delvings.

I lied. Ok, didn't lie, I missthought myself. (If you can misspeak, why can't you missthink?) I thought I could, but my thinker didn't, and is going to stay there for awhile.

My reasons for temporarily abandoning the deep post- good questions and good speculations require full mentational power; right now mine are, perforce, focused elsewhere on two farm urgencies (on top of all the normal stuff.)

1) We bought a new tractor. It's due any minute; I'm writing this waiting for the freight trucker to call on his cell phone and say "I'm 5 minutes away".

Stuff hardly gets more exciting than a new tractor, right?

Particularly this one, I think. It's not a John Deere (already have one) - it's a Grillo.

Walking tractor. With a 7.5 horse Yanmar diesel engine. You can google them; I don't want to provide links here and have people wondering if I'm cahooting around.

There's a ton of Sussy (thank you Sara!) stuff to say about this walking tractor- a whole post's worth, at least. We'll get there. Major points- this is the machine we need. Primary use will be mowing, with a sickle bar, for access to tree crops for harvest. There are LOTS of other potentials; you can even get a serious hay baler for this thing. And it's a diesel. I can actually grow my own fuel for it- which is no longer trivial or ludicrous.

Very inciting, as Rudyard Kipling put it.

2) We've pretty much decided we're going to build a dugout sod chicken coop. Quick. We're still picking 6 ticks a day, per person, off each other, and 20 off Bruce. Insane. So we need the guineas. They need lodgings. We really need them to start chasing ticks in April- which means we've got to keep adults over winter. It's cold here. And, we're broke. so...

Digging around on the net, the amount of hard info on soddy construction is slim- but not non existent. Two things are obvious- it's a pretty forgiving technology; and if they're well made, and the roof maintained- they easily last 100 years.

So. The tractor is shipped disassembled. Gotta put it together, and not screw up. And the chicken cellar needs to be designed. Carefully, and thoughtfully.

Brain's busy.

Islands first-

2008-05-28T11:10:00.005-05:00

Way back there, I commented on somebody else's blog that one of the best places for new sustainable changes to be encouraged would be islands. Everything is just a little more urgent, a little more obvious there- it should be easier to convince people of the need for substantive change.

So- here's a great island to watch in the next days and years - Zanzibar has been without power for 8 days now. They're learning fast.

Everybody complains that photovoltaic power is "too expensive".

You know, it's really not. At the moment, hotels in Zanzibar are running diesel generators- and it's costing them 20% of total income, daily- just for fuel and water.

Could have paid for a good solar array with that money. All you have to do to get your economics calculations to swing around towards solar is: factor in a real power outage from the grid, sometime or other. A month or so of "business is still working", compared to the same time period of "business totally shut down" - really changes the bottom line. It's been very very hard to get people to listen to that- the idea that "power" could go "out" for more than a few hours has been unthinkable in the developed world for decades now. They thought it was unthinkable in Zanzibar too, 8 days ago.

The tricky part is- the panels will NOT put out as much power as the generator can. So you have to learn to USE less. That's where folks refuse to change.

But you know- if you live on Zanzibar right now- I'll bet it's making a lot more sense to you, that you really don't need some of those frills.

It may be this is how people will learn. Keep using- right up until the day all the power is cut.

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Update June 5- the power in Zanzibar is still out. And it going to stay out for a month, apparently. Here's a story from a shopkeeper; and one that explains the power situation. Basically, their power situation is/was unique- the island gets its power from a hydro plant on the mainland- through 38 kilometers of undersea cable. Um. What? It's the cable that's broken- it's 28 years old.

A month? or more. Talk about incentive for change.

Hm.

2008-05-28T10:19:00.004-05:00

Not sure what it is, but recently the New York Times has been a little cranky about accepting my comments- am I ticking somebody off? Today I commented on an Op-Ed, about the world food crisis. Two hours later; 2 other sets of comments have been added- but mine has not. (update, 1 hour later; they did finally post it- but boy they thought about it for a long time.)

Hey, it occurred to me- I have my own blog! So; I'm putting my comment here. Tell me what you think.

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Lots of heat in the comments- evidence of strong convictions- but little light, or full system analysis. World hunger has multiple causes; can we start admitting that up front? Unfortunately multiple causes gives the various factions the quick ability to point their fingers at the others. And prevent action. Can we be a little more adult than "but he started it!"?

Fact- yes, people are dying, now, because they are hungry.

Fact- index funds, college endowments, and hedge funds have dumped MANY BILLIONS of dollars into the ag futures markets in the last 2 years. Is that an upward pressure on prices? Yes.

Fact - profits for food (and oil) speculators have been record highs recently.
Fact- all around the world, anti-poverty programs had been making progress; millions of people were "being taught how to fish", instead of just being "given a fish" today. All that work, progress, and hope- is gone.

The profits for the hedge funds come right out of the pockets of the poorest people on earth.

How much longer will we have to point fingers, and discuss who is most to blame- before we roll back the futures market regulations to what they were 2 years ago?

What's more important to you- the profits of the financial sector? Or food in the bellies of the starving?

ALL causes of hunger should be dealt with- as soon as possible. Speculation in food should be the easiest cause to deal with, immediately. Then- let's deal with the others.

Meanwhile- maybe Wall Street could get together, and toss one of their spare billions - just one, out of the trillions- to the UN, so they can buy food.

Hey, guys- you'll get it right back- they'll be buying your food, paying your prices. And you might sleep better.

— Greenpa, Minnesota

And Mexico wins the rationing lottery-

2008-05-27T08:54:00.004-05:00

No, this isn't quite rationing- but it's the first move in that direction.

From the BBC today: Mexico's poor get food cash boost

Interesting that it's in the Business section, isn't it?

"The Mexican government is to give its poorest citizens a monthly cash payment of 120 pesos ($11.55; £5.85) to help them cope with rising food prices."

Basically, their decision so far, is to continue paying speculation inflated food prices- spending taxpayer money to prevent a few folks from actual starvation. (And quite certainly not preventing a few others.)

The gutsy government move would be to A) prohibit food speculation (and hang a few speculators to show you're serious), and B) initiate actual rationing of basics - to ensure that no citizen actually starves - starves - due to financial shenanigans.

Not quite there- but moving in that direction.

Within the financial community, there is growing admission that it's the speculators who are pushing oil prices up. This is from the Washington Post today: Crude Analysis

Much of the article deals with the question of "how much does it drive the price of oil up when a big player "predicts" much higher prices?" - which is certainly an interesting question. But it ends with this casual bomb:

"Roger Diwan, a partner at the consulting firm PFC Energy, adds that people speculating about rising prices don't have to hoard oil in traditional ways. He says the financial players -- such as pension and hedge funds or firms like Goldman -- that are driving the market now don't need to own ships or tanks; they can just bid up prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where they can buy on margin. 'The paper market is infinite,' he says, 'and you don't have to pay for storage.' "

Like, duh, everybody knows- it's the "financial players ... that are driving the market."

EXACTLY THE SAME THING IS TRUE OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES - otherwise known as "food".

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In case you're worried, it's not really my intention to become a "financial doom" blog here. What I'm still trying to focus on, and am still furious about, is the world food supply, and prices. Right this second, the news train is focusing on oil, though, so it may be helpful to point out that the problem is parallel- and works exactly the same way.

Any responsible government needs to ACT. Right quick. And the new laws, and new regulations, need to cover food, as well as energy.

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Meanwhile; back at the farm. We're planting garden, and trees, as fast as we can. Which means we're pooped out a lot. That's going to be a factor for some time yet. Today, I get to dig trees to ship to customers. Used to have a couple employees to share the work... but, uh... can't afford them any more. Price of gas, and all that... gosh, it's all connected, somehow... (did I say that already?) :-)

cheer up, Brian! - #2

2008-05-24T13:27:00.008-05:00

So as not to leave you all feeling too desperate and hopeless:

This is a song I've known for ... gads, decades, now.

The message to take away- he is not kidding. None of these people are, and the song never was.

But.

They survived. And they still smile. So can you. Bad times- really bad times- are a long way from new in this world; or even in this country.

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The first version I learned was this one:

“Dirt Farmer” (Tracy Schwarz) lyrics:

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lost all his corn
And now where’s the money to pay off his loan?
The loan that he signed to pay off his corn
To pay off his loan.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he’s dry as a bone
And the only thing growin’ is a ten-pound stone
And when it gets round he'll roll it on down
To the tax man in town.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lives all alone
His wife and kids left him, and took all he owned
And on the next round, they took all they found
That wasn’t nailed down.

Now the poor old dirt farmer how bad he must feel
He upset his tractor, got caught in the wheel
And now his head is the shape of the tread
But he still isn’t dead.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lost all his corn
And now where’s the money to pay off his loan?
The loan that he signed to pay off his corn.
To pay off his loan.
To pay off his corn.
To pay off his loan.
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Folks survive. And smile. We need to decide to survive; and still smile, sometimes.