Euro 2008

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2695028.post-47576568496365864702008-06-27T11:10:00.003Z2008-06-27T11:21:06.693ZEuro 2008For <a href="http://www.euro2008.uefa.com/">Euro 2008</a> I tracked the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds">odds</a> of any of the teams winning over time. It makes a kind of fun <a href="http://code.google.com/apis/chart/">graph</a>: <img src="http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lc&chs=600x500&chxt=r&chxl=0:|0|11&achtt=Euro+2008+Sweepstake+Pot+Valuation&chd=t:3.20,3.20,3.56,3.56,3.56,3.56,3.56,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,4.00,6.15,6.15,6.15,5.82,10.18|3.56,3.56,2.67,2.67,2.67,2.67,2.67,2.67,2.67,4.57,6.15,6.15,6.67,6.67,6.67,8.00,7.11|0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.16,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.76,1.60,1.45,1.45,1.45,1.45,0,0|0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,1.23,1.23,1.23,3.56,3.56,3.56,3.56,4.00,0|0.47,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.62,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|0.84,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|1.07,1.07,2.00,2.00,2.00,2.00,2.00,2.00,2.00,2.00,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|1.23,1.23,1.23,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0|1.45,1.45,1.45,0.94,0.94,0.94,1.23,1.33,2.67,2.67,2.67,2.91,0,0,0,0,0|2.46,2.46,2.46,3.69,3.56,3.56,3.56,3.69,3.56,3.56,4.00,0,0,0,0,0,0|2.67,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,2.91,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0&chds=0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11,0,11&chdl=SPAIN|GERMANY|AUSTRIA|SWITZERLAND|POLAND|TURKEY|GREECE|RUSSIA|ROMANIA|SWEDEN|CZECH%20REP.%20|CROATIA|FRANCE|ITALY|HOLLAND|PORTUGAL&chco=E34234,000000,800000,FF0050,CC3333,8A2BE2,00DDDD,DAA520,FCC200,FFFF00,ff0000,B7410E,73C2FB,0000FF,FFA812,F984E5" width="600" height="500" alt="Graph of odds over time for the teams in Euro 2008"/> The y-axis shows the odds (screen scraped from a betting web site... not doing that again), converted into a probability, and multiplied by 16. Why multiplied? To give a kind of "value" to each team: if you'd purchased a team for £1 in a sweepstake, then you can plot a kind of value for it over time by multiplying the odds of winning by the size of the pot (£16). Kind of.Richardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13961558038549366975noreply@blogger.com