NFL football betting

2008-03-27T13:34:00.000-07:00

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2007-08-29T13:37:00.000-07:00

There are basically two parts of pro football games on which you can gamble - the 'totals' and the 'sides'. While 'totals' are bet with the goal of determining whether the final combined score of a game will be over or under a specified number, 'sides' can be bet using either the point spread (picking a team to 'cover') or the money line (picking a team to win the game outright). These types of wagers are generally referred to as 'straight bets'. There are, however, other wagers, called 'exotic bets,' which are based upon a combination or variation of straight bets. Since not all types of exotic wagers are accepted by all sportsbooks, we'll only discuss a couple of the more popular ones (as they relate to football) here.
Parlays are a popular type of wager, mainly because they sport a higher payout than the standard 10-11 odds offered by straight bets against the point spread. As a result, this makes them quite enticing to gamblers who want to get rich quick. Of course, the reason the payouts are higher is because the chances of winning are lower. Parlay bets involve wagering on a group of two or more games in which your pick in each game must beat the point spread or the 'total'. If just one pick loses, the entire parlay loses, while if one of your wagers ends in a 'push' (tie), the 'push' is thrown out as if the bet was never placed and the parlay reverts to the next lower level parlay. Sportsbooks vary on their payouts in regards to parlays, with the most generous payouts in Las Vegas. However, using the conservative payout table below, we can see that if you placed a $100 wager on a two team parlay and won, you would make $260 on your $100 bet. If one team covered and the other 'pushed', your bet would revert to the next lower level bet, which in this case would be the straight bet paying 10-11 odds. Because the other team covered, your 'straight bet' would result in you winning $91. However, if either team failed to cover, you would lose your original $100 wager.As you can see by the chart, your winnings can accumulate rather quickly when you are successful at parlays. Simply by wagering on just two teams, you can more than double your money if both cover. In addition, parlays can actually lessen the total amount of money you put at risk when compared to straight bets. For example, assume you bet a $100 two team parlay on the Eagles and Steelers. If both teams cover, you win $260 on the $100 you risked. In contrast, if you placed two individual $100 straight wagers (risk $200 total) on the Eagles and Steelers and each team covered, you would have winnings after vigorish of $182 - much less than what you would have on a two team parlay.
Now you can see why parlays are so enticing. So what's the problem?
For starters, your chances of losing the entire amount of your wager are much greater with a parlay than on straight bets simply because all teams must cover in order for you to win your parlay. Therefore, you must be able to handicap games with some appreciable degree of accuracy, especially the more teams you parlay. For this reason alone, it is generally recommended that you never wager on more than a three team parlay.
Another problem with parlays is that as you climb the parlay ladder and include more teams in your bet, the amount of vigorish the sportsbooks take increases, resulting in the payout to you becoming a mere fraction of the risk you are taking. For example, with a two team parlay there are four possible outcomes: both teams cover the spread; the first team covers and second one doesn't; the second team covers and the first one doesn't; or neither team covers. Therefore, the actual odds of winning a two team parlay (assuming an equal chance of all outcomes based on 50% handicapping) are 3-1 (25%). The corresponding payout for the two team parlay is 2.6-1 (13-5). With a four team parlay, the odds of winning are 15-1, but you only receive a payout of 11-1. By the time you get to a six team parlay, there are 64 possible outcomes, but if you win, you are paid at the rate of 31-1. So, although more glamorous than a straight bet, the payout you receive from a parlay does not completely reward you for the amount of risk you must take (depending upon your average handicapping percentage) - especially once you get past a three to four team parlay.
Another downside is that since the odds of you winning a parlay are stacked against you (3-1 in the case of a two team parlay), you must have a much more sizeable bankroll with which to wager in order to be able to withstand the losses you will incur between winnings. Of course, as with straight bets, the quality of your handicapping can significantly impact your success. For example, an average 60% handicapping on straight bets can reduce your chances of losing a two team parlay to just under 2-1, which is better than the odds the sportsbooks pay on that type of wager.
So, the bottom line on parlays really comes down to how serious of a gambler you are. If you are in it for the long haul, your bankroll can withstand the losses you'll incur between winnings, and you don't overextend your handicapping ability by wagering too high up the parlay ladder, you should realize a greater return on your money betting parlays regularly versus straight bets. On the other hand, if you enjoy wagering occasionally, or your bankroll can't withstand a series of losses before your next win, then a straight bet is the better way to go.
A teaser is basically a modified parlay. This type of wager consists of a selection of two or more teams in which the point spread is adjusted in your favor anywhere from 3 to 7 points. In return, you agree to accept a lower payout that is ultimately determined by the number of teams and points selected. As always, it depends on the sportsbook, but generally a push and a win on a two team teaser results in a return of your money and is treated as if the wager never occurred. A push and a loss are treated as a loss and any push on a three or more team teaser causes the teaser to revert to the next lower level teaser similar to the parlay. Keep in mind that the odds and rules can change based upon the sportsbook, so you'll want to make sure what the exact rules are before you place any wager.
Thanks to the "teased" point spread, teasers certainly help to lessen the amount of risk you take when combining several wagers into one. However, you really don't start seeing returns that exceed the straight bet's 10-11 odds until you wager on at least a three team teaser. In the end, when compared to parlays, you should win on teasers more frequently, however, the amount you win per teaser will also be substantially less. In addition, pushes basically count against you as they negate any win you might otherwise realize had you bet a parlay instead.
Futures involve wagering on some event that will be determined in the future. In the NFL, futures regarding the individual teams usually involve betting on how many games a team will win during the season, what a team's chances are for winning their division and who might win the Super Bowl. Futures usually offer higher odds for bettors and change throughout the season. However, once you've placed a future wager, your odds are locked in and do not change. The value of future wagers can be hard to assess because of the length of time before the outcome is resolved, the lack of relevant information at the time the wager is placed, and the many unpredictable events that may occur. For instance, when you consider placing a wager on a team for the upcoming weekend, you are aware of the recent history and any significant injuries or circumstances that may affect the team's performance. Based on that knowledge, you may elect to wager or pass on that particular game. However, once you've placed a future bet, you're in for the long haul, come what may. Another drawback of futures is that if you have a limited bankroll, making a future bet ties up some of your money, making it unavailable for any wagers you might otherwise make throughout the season.

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