Election Junkie

Pelosi, Bush Battle

2008-07-18T17:59:00.001-07:00

For President Bush: I can't say you are the perfect person to challenge congress on their failures, however it is a reasonable point. And as much as Pelosi would like to blame you for everything bad that happens in the world, you are right, America DOES deserve better.

For Nancy Pelosi: Ok, admittingly it is too easy to explain Bush's faliures as president, when he challenges congress own problems. But, as much as you love to poke fun at Bush's 30% approval rating, it is much easier to poke fun at congress'9% approval rating. I mean seriously, what have you REALLY accomplished? Bush can at least say he brought two democracy's to middle east countrys either ruled by a ruthless dictator, or by the tailban. And YOU have a hard time getting minimum wage passed. You are more pathetic than the president. Bless your heart!

For Americans: They both suck. Neither have helped gas prices go down, settle any conflicts, or made our everyday lives any better. How about you take time off from the stage and Wolf Blitzer Tonight and get something accomplished in bother your misrable terms.

Obama Extends Lead, New Insider Truths Feature

2008-07-18T10:39:00.001-07:00

The latest projection is there for your viewing pleasure up on the top bar. Barack Obama extends his lead 3 more points, with the phantom poll in Montana pushing the Electoral Vote total to 309 to 229 in favor of Obama. In national polling, McCain continues to be statistically tied with Obama. The battleground states remain extremely close, but Obama has the advantage in most cases.

New feature for Insider Truths as of yesterday. Every thursday I will be posting a video to will range from either debates, hot topics, funny political videos etc. Right now, I have a video of people burning the American flag, and I'm intreasted to see your reation to the paticular subject.

John McCain Rising

2008-07-13T20:29:00.000-07:00

If you take a look at recent polling trends, especially the day by day trends, you will see that McCain has quietly moved to a tie in the latest Rasmussen Reports Poll. In the Gallup, McCain has moved to within 1 point. And Newsweek, who gave Obama a 12 point lead a month ago, has moved the race to just 3. We will have to see if this will also be reflected in the state to state polls (usually it does).

Liberals will sure be in denial about this, but I think Obama's message is starting to fall apart. He keeps changing his mind about things, not to mention he has had to retract several statments that he has made in order to appease certain people. And as hard as he trying to win over the Christian vote, it is not likely to work.

Here is also something that is sure to rattle some left wing cages. With all the media attention, which is 95% positive, in his favor...it is really saying something that he is still is in a tie with John McCain. McCain is forced to hold the party of a President that has left most people in disgust, and yet he is getting stronger and stronger...not weaker. If fact, I would make the case that by the start of september, it will McCain, not Obama with the advantage going through the heart of the election season.

Projection Moved to Friday, New Insider Truths Argument

2008-07-07T15:08:00.001-07:00

Due to another day of either worthless or no polls at all, I am going to wait until the end of the week to post my next projection.

New argument in the Insider Truths section, make sure to check that out as soon as possible!

When asked about Obama's accomplishments...

2008-07-06T09:46:00.001-07:00

Ummm, can anyone add to that?

Next Projections, Insider Truths Update

2008-07-04T15:36:00.000-07:00

I am planning to make an updated prediction so make sure to keep on the lookout. Right now, there will not even be a change in the projection due to a lack in polls, and if that is the case I may move it back to Friday.

Thus far I have been pretty impressed by the response to Insider Truths. I was worried it would draw little response, but it has done pretty well to this point. Please continue to comment and continue to spread the word! I will have a fresh debate in store for monday, so be ready!

Happy Birthday America!

2008-07-04T15:24:00.001-07:00

May you continue to be the greatest country in the world forever! Let us not forget all those who died to create and protect the United States...God Bless America

New: Insider Truths

2008-07-02T16:08:00.000-07:00

You will notice on the above Link Bar, that there is a site called Insider Truths. Years before I even created a projection site, my daily dose of politics consisted of entering other's webpages such as Election Projection and C.H. Truth and picking arguments with anyone that would respond all day. It was fun, and I really miss doing it, so I have decided to create a page just for that purpose.

The concept is pretty simple. I will throw out a topic, and every diehard democrat or republican, liberal or religious right, Indpendent or completely dependent...it doesn't matter. The most signifigant part of this plan is let you say pretty much anything you want. I want real arguments and true feelings so little should be held back. Please check it out, because I would hate to have to get rid of it! It is already up and running, and many features will be added as time goes along.

New Projections are Here...

2008-07-02T14:51:00.000-07:00

I'm refreshed, and unlike McCain in the polls, I'm doing great as well. The projections are here and just to assure, it is currently only a rough draft of what I hope to make the projection pages look like. So hopefully I can continue to expand on the site.

So here is the deal for my lastest projection. Barack Obama continues to pull away from John McCain, but despite those numbers, I think John McCain shouldn't feel down in the dumps. There actually are encouraging things to look at for him. Here are some...

1. Despite a recent 'out there' poll by Survey USA, three straight polls have showed John McCain with a moderate lead in Indiana. This is a state that is too reliable for me to believe it could make that signifigant of a jump.

2. He continues to hold a narrow lead in Nevada. Pretty good sign considering he is in his roughest polling trend to date.

3. Missouri is doing much better for McCain as of late, I think he will be fine...but beware, Obama is ready to steal this state away.

4. Florida has consistently polled well for him..look for him to take this state.

5. All the states that McCain needs to be close are. Colorado is within 2 point, Ohio is within 2 points, Pennsylvania is with 4, Michigan is within 4, Oregan within 4, and Iowa within 5. Expect Virgina to jump ship back in favor of McCain at some point.

For Barack Obama, there is really only two you can really say.

1. You have the huge lead in both state by state polling, and national polling.

2. You are keeping many solid southern states such as Virgina, Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana pretty close. And even though you may lose every single one of these states, all the money McCain is forced to pour into these states is money he won't be putting into Ohio, Michigan, Oregan, Colorado amoung others.

I'm Back

2008-06-26T13:10:00.001-07:00

I'm am very sorry for the delay and such. I'm going through a tough time in my life and I needed a few days to think things out. I don't want to really get into it but it was tough on me and my family, but I'm thankful to God for helping me though these tough times and I feel good about the future. I did recieve a couple of e-mails wishing me the best, and I appreciate that and it did mean a lot to me.

Now moving forward, McCain is not looking good early on in his bid for president. Just as I expected a month ago, Obama is soaring since he secured the nomination for president. Once my next projection is up and running you should see Obama picking up Michigan, Missouri, and Virgina. If the current trend continues by the next projection look for Indiana, Nevada, and Florida to follow. It is a tough time for McCain at the moment, but don't make the mistake of thinking Obama isn't vurlnable to a fallout.

Short Break

2008-06-23T15:03:00.000-07:00

I am very under the weather right now, and I am finding it hard to focus at this very moment. I am hoping not to be out long, but I simply can't do it right now. I will update soon.

Quick Updates Coming, Upcoming Vaction

2008-06-12T05:59:00.000-07:00

I am in the process of updating the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages today. I am actually tied up today, but I am working hard to complete them by the middle of the day. The presidential race has actually been updated, but the map I had been using was deleted by accident, so I am looking to find another one, hopefully a better one at that. Although I plan to have the actual pages completed, the state by state pages will have to be updated later.

I thought I would let you know I am planning a short vaction to South Carolina next week. I may be leaving Monday, but I am considering leaving a couple of days later. I will wait and see. I shouldn't be gone more than a few days.

State to State Races: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming

2008-06-10T10:36:00.000-07:00

We have reached the end of the 'State to State Races' tour. I actually got this done rather quickly considering the amount of imformation I was forced to put down. It took me just a month before I made it through 50 states and the District of Columbia and today we come to a close.

Washington- I can't wait to see the Governor rematch between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. If you don't know that story by now, you have missed quite a bit. After a few recounts showing both candidates with a win, Gregoire was the one given the Governor's mansion, and a huge rematch is brewing.

West Virgina- I pretty much expect John McCain to pull off a narrow but safe victory in this state, but the Democrats will dominate the rest of the board.

Wisconsin- George W. Bush was very close to taking this state twice, but came up short both times. John McCain will certainly be competitive in this state but the jury is out on if he can capture enough votes to win.

Wyoming- Due to the passing of Craig Thomas, there is two senate seats up for grabs this time around. Both will be taken by the Republican, as the GOP should take the whole board in this state.

Stay tuned for: A wild and crazy election season!

Next Presidential Analysis

2008-06-10T10:30:00.001-07:00

I am ending my 'State to State Races' tour within the hour, so I thought is was a good time to tell you that I will be updating my presidential anaylsis tommorow. I guess I'll let off a hint and tell you that Barack Obama will again be leading John McCain, but actually by a smaller number than my intial projection. I plan to put it on there around noon tomorrow, so keep on the lookout.

State to State Races: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina

2008-06-10T08:33:00.000-07:00

This is my next to last update, the other one will be up in just a few hours so be sure to check out the end of the whole thing. Today, we will start with...

Tennessee- I think Tennessee will fall easily into the GOP's hands, and I think Lamar Alexander will retain his seat in the senate will a comfortable win. If Bob Corker, who narrowly won his senate seat, wins despite the blue wave, I think Alexander will hold his seat as the incumbant.

Texas- The mega state of Texas will be won agian by the GOP, and the senate should be close but comfortable in 2008.

Utah- The GOP's most conservitive state, will remain that way once again in 2008 as the GOP is VERY safe all the way down the board.

Vermont- The Democrats will be very comfortable in this state, save the Governor's race where James Douglas (R) should cruise to a victory for the GOP.

Virgina- This state has been trending democrat lately and thus far polls have been close. However, McCain will win this state and take it's electoral votes. Farther down the list, presents good oppurtunities for the Democrats to take a senate and house race.

Stay tuned for: Washington, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Wyoming

State to State Races: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota

2008-06-09T20:39:00.000-07:00

Wow, we are getting closer and closer to the end. In fact, by tomorrow night we will have reached the end of the tour. Were not there yet though, so lets keep going to...

Pennsylvania- Don't count out this state for the GOP. Bush has kept this state close twice and McCain should do the same. One of the big rays of hope for the GOP came during the Democratic primary, when 1 in 4 of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama was on the ballot. Another large number said they would not vote. Obviously I don't buy that going into November, but if there could be 'just enough' votes trailed away from Obama, McCain could pull the upset.

Rhode Island- What can you possibly say about this state? All democrats are safe down the board, and they will have little challenge from the GOP.

South Carolina- Expect the Democrats to com closer than in past elections in the national election, but don't expect things to be very competitive. Early polls do shows things closer than usual, but I don't see much coming from it.

South Dakota- On the national scale at least, the GOP will win quite easily. Akward that a state that votes so strongly for the Republican would have little representation under it. I do expect Democrat Tim Johnson to garner some sort of challenge, but I have a hard time believing that he will lose. The democrat in the house is also safe.

Stay tuned for: Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virgina

Third Party Factor

2008-06-08T20:23:00.000-07:00

I just had a thought thinking about the upcoming election, and that being the factor that the third paties will have on this election as opposed to previous elections. Everyone know about Ralph Nader, who is running again as an Idependent, and how he made an impact on the 2000 election. Not to mention how bad Republicans faired due to the large impact of Ross Perot in 1992, and 1996. Independents and third parties can make a big difference in the election, and for some reason, I get the feeling it may play a role again in 2008. Take, for example, a recent poll by CNN that includes both Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate. Barack Obama leads McCain by a 47% to 43% margin. Nader draws an astounding 6%, and even Barr draws a modest 2% in that poll. Without those candidates, it is a 49% to 46% win for Obama.

Bob Barr, a former Republican from Georgia, may take votes away from John McCain. Ralph Nader may take away from both. As seen, when those candidates are included, McCain is the one that really suffers the most. Nader and Barr may both fall off the map as time goes along. Nader had the same trend going into 2004, and as he failed to make the ballot in many states, the less affect he had on the overall election.

So logically, we could run into another 2000, where one party feels cheated due to the prospects of the third party candidates. But moving forward, is John McCain the one that would really take the bigger hit? Ralph Nader is far left, as is most of the Libertarian Party, so it seems like Democrats unhappy with Obama would be the ones trailing to a third party. Then again, maybe right-of-center Republicans will cling to Bob Barr, a former Republican.

Intreasting to think about as November draws closer and closer...

State to State Races: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon

2008-06-08T12:47:00.000-07:00

I only have three states lined up for today, but granted I have been obviously busy this week so lets continue on with a couple of big states.

First let us start with the great state of Ohio. Ohio was a disaster for the GOP in 2006. They lost their senate seat, governor seat, and a big house seat as they threw out the scandal-ridden GOP candidates. So we move on to this election, and Ohio seems to be up in the air once again. Bush narrowly took the state in 2000 and 2004, but again with the recent nationwide rise of the Democratic party, it will be difficult for McCain to retain the state.

Oklahoma doesn't offer very much for the 2008 election. John McCain will easily win the state, and all of it's senators and house members are safe for now.

And then there is Oregon. People seem to little remember how close George W. Bush was to winning this state in 2000, and even though John Kerry stretched it to a four point win, this isn't a lock for the democrats. This one may be a close battleground by the time of the election.

Stay tuned for: Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota

What a Day!

2008-06-07T14:26:00.000-07:00

I have made so many changes up to this point that I think my head is getting ready to explode...and still I have a ton of work to do, most apparent in the President, Senate, House, and Governor pages. For some reason all of those links were transfered into the new link bar, and I have not figured out a way to put them into links. If I am unable to do so, I will have to go in and do manually, which requires hours of work. Either way, I plan to have it all done by Sunday night. Keep on the lookout!

UPDATE: Turns out I was able to go in and get it all done last night, so all the pages have been updated. I would certianly like to expand on the new design, and so I will continue to do work. I am very happy with how the page turned out, and I am excited about it looking forward.

Overhaul

2008-06-07T09:26:00.000-07:00

I am trying to do some updating to the graphic design to the site, and as is obviously seen, it is a real mess right now. Hopefully I will have this worked out by days end. Again sorry for the mess!

A Few Notes

2008-06-06T16:48:00.000-07:00

For those asking about how I will do updates with the presidential elections, along with the rest of the projections, my plan is to update every month until about September. Once September roles around I will do weekly updates up until election day.

Another point I wanted to point out is that I am slightly changing a part of my election formula. In the 2006 races, I gave far too much benefit to the incumbant. As 2006 came to a close, it was obvious that it did very little for the numerous Republicans that feel victim to the Democratic wave. I will not be taking it out of the formula, only drawing it a back a bit so that it is much more accurate to the polls. I add a section to my page showing how I do my formula soon.

State to State Races: Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota

2008-06-01T10:20:00.000-07:00

We continue on today, as we closer and closer to the end, with a look at states from midwest, New England, South, and Great Plains.

Well start with Nebraska. Like Maine, it is split into districts that represent electoral votes. And as Maine's districts will all go to the democrats, all of Nebraskas will go to the GOP. The GOP's senate seat should be safe, and there are no competitive house races.

Next there is Nevada. Intially, I projected that the Democrats would pick this seat up. That is the current projection you will find on that page, but poll after poll indicates that John McCain is doing very well in this state and is the favorite to win this state. Other than it's battleground status, there is no senate, governor, or competitive house races.

And then the battleground of New Hampshire. It is nearly the oppisite of Nevada. I intially thought this would be a great chance for a win for the GOP, but polls now indicate that Barack Obama has had the slight advantage. A huge race is brewing in the Senate, as Republican John Sununu is in serious danger of losing his seat to the democratic challenger. There is also a competitive house race.

We move on to New Jersey. For a time in 2004, New Jersey seemed to be polling close. I doubt that will ever be the case in 2008. The democrat should easily win the race. In the house, two open seats that the GOP may lose, are on the table this year. The GOP will be glad if they can keep at least one of those seats.

On to New Mexico. Yet another battleground state that may go down to the wire, I expect this state to change colors time and time again as the election draws near. New Mexico is another state the GOP may lose a senate seat.

The mega state of New York follows. You can't say much about New York, other than it is very safe for the Democrat. They have four house races to look into though.

And then there is North Carolina. North Carolina may not be as safe for Republicans as it should be, but don't expect anything dramatic this coming election.

Finally we reach North Dakota. The GOP will domintate the presidential race here, along with the Governor race, despite how much they have lost in the senate and hosue.

Stay tuned for: Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregan

New Poll

2008-06-01T10:17:00.000-07:00

New poll up now. It is a generic ballot asking you to make your choice for the next president of the United States. Have at it!

State to State Races: Maine, Maryland, Massachusettes, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana

2008-05-29T16:19:00.000-07:00

All of the M's are in store for you today as we take a look at 8 states in the upcoming election. We can start with...

Maine- Maine's split districts will go to the democrats in 2008, with little worry. In the senate, Republican incumbant Susan Collins will have the fight of her life. That is certianly a race you should look at.

Maryland- There is little to talk about in Maryland this time around. It's 10 electoral votes are safe for the upcoming election, and there are no senate, governor, or competitive house races.

Massachusettes- Similar to Maryland, there is little to be said of this state. The GOP has little chance to win in Massachusettes, despite a couple of polls showing the race is close. In the senate, John Kerry (yes, that John Kerry) will also cruise to a victory.

Michigan- This state is expected to be a big battleground in this election cycle. Polls are tight, and candidates will pour money into winning this state. I give the democrat the slight edge. As for the senate, Carl Levin (D) will tag another easy victory for the Democrats. There is a house race to look at in district 7, where Tim Walberg (R) will try to defend his seat.

Minnesota- I don't think the GOP will put up a strong fight in the presidential race in 2008. The real races happen in the senate and house. In the senate, republican Norm Coleman will fight to defend his seat. Many pundits have this race really close, and is yet another race the GOP will be forced to fight to defend. Also a big race in district 3 you should pay attention to.

Mississippi- A good place for the GOP in the next election, it's 6 electoral votes are safe for them. It has two senate races this year, but both will likely go to the GOP.

Missouri- A place that the GOP is starting to lose it's grasp on, it should still hang on to win the presidential race. However, I expect a DEM win in the Governor race.

Montana- For the presidential and house races, the GOP is in great shape. In the senate and governor race, the Democrats are in great shape. Little more can be said of the state.

Again, if there is any incorrect or old information that I has been included to the pages, please let me know so that they can be corrected.

Stay tuned for: States that start with the letter N

State to State Races: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana

2008-05-20T13:56:00.000-07:00

This time around we got a few probable GOP wins in the presidential race, and along with more wins in the senate and house.

First lets take a look at Kansas. The GOP has to love Kansas for the upcoming year. It's six electoral votes, while small, and no doubt in the GOP hands. In the senate, Incumbant Pat Roberts looks to be secure in his battle againist Democrat Lee Jones. It also represents a steller chance for the GOP to retake a seat from the demcrats in District 2. Freshman Congress memeber Nancy Boyda has the fight of her life againist Repubican Jim Ryun.

Update: Thanks to some help from the comment thread, I have made some modifications to the Kansas page. I was a bit of a victim of old information, and so changes have been made such as Jim Slattery will challenge Lee Jones for the Dem nomination in the senate, and Lynn Jenkins has been added to the mix in the House race. If you should find any other old or misused data, I would be thankful if you could let me know. Thanks!

Next take a look at Kentucky. Much like Kansas, it's electoral votes look safe, as does Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell. And agian, there represents a possible pickup oppurtunity for Republicans, as another freshman congressman, John Yarmouth will battle to retain his seat.

Then there is Louisiana. This is a state that has the potential to be intreasting. It's nine electoral votes should be in John McCain's hands, but the senate seat is where the real fun is. A lot of people are expecting a big battle, as Democrat Mary Landrieu, who narrowly won her last two terms, seems to face rough competition in the next election. Not to mention that many Democrats are believed to have relocated to other states in the country. Only time will tell how this one will shape out.

I am tyring to get a whole heap of states done in the next two weeks, so stay tuned for that in the next few weeks.