Bizarro Joe Lunardi

NBA Draft Review

2009-06-27T20:05:00.000-07:00

Every year I decide grading the draft on (or shortly after) draft night is silly because the draft is just one part of the off-season. We don’t know what will happen the rest of the way. With that in mind I’m doing more of a “grading the off-season thus far” thing than a “grading the draft” thing.

Atlanta Hawks

Jeff Teague
Sergey Gladyr
Jamal Crawford

Prior to draft night the Hawks gave up Acie Law and Speedy Claxton’s decaying body for Crawford. That trade doesn’t sound all that bad, but in reality the trade might be more like Law and Mike Bibby for Crawford. That doesn’t sound quite as good. Even without Bibby drafting a point guard would be a decent idea. Instead the Hawks took a guy in Teague that really isn’t a point guard. I think they would have been better off going with Maynor. It has not been a a disastrous off-season thus far, but they probably have gotten a bit worse than last year.

Grade: C-

Boston Celtics

Lester Hudson

Perhaps it’s lazy to say a guy that once got a quadruple double is attractive because he can do it all, but Hudson can really do it all. He is definitely a big time scorer, but he can rebound from the guard position and he’s not a bad distributor either (although it’s tough to know just where that skill level is due to the skill level of his teammates). I don’t know that he’ll make the Celtics team, but this is great value for a guy late in the second round.

Grade: B

Charlotte Bobcats

Gerald Henderson
Derrick Brown
Cash

In what is a common theme in this draft, I don’t love Henderson, but I’m not sure they could have made a better pick there. He was somewhere around the best player on the board and he fits a need. Brown was really good value in the second round.

Grade: B+

Chicago Bulls

James Johnson
Taj Gibson

The Bulls made two reasonable picks, even if neither was great. Like pretty much every other team in the NBA, DeJuan Blair would have been a good fit. Still, Johnson is a guy with a fairly high upside that could be really good if he develops some perimeter skills. However, he’s athletic and long enough to get away with some time at the power forward position while he waits for those to develop. Gibson is probably just about a finished product and he may be forced to provide some minutes, particularly if Tyrus Thomas gets dealt. The Bulls are likely not done this off-season. They probably will not retain Ben Gordon and talks have been going about trading Kirk Hinrich. If they lose Gordon and Hinrich they will need some more players in the backcourt. This was an OK start to the off-season, but the potential still exists for it to be a disaster.

Grade: C+

Cleveland Cavaliers

Christian Eyenga
Danny Green
Emir Preldzic
Shaquille O’Neal

I’m in favor of the Shaq trade. On ESPN, Mark Jackson was criticizing it by saying that the Cavs really struggled to defend the pick and roll and Shaq is a terrible pick and roll defender. That may all be true, but this off-season is not over yet. But Jackson is correct that the Cavs need more bodies. With that in mind, Eyenga was a poor pick for the Cavs. Regardless of whether he ever turns into anything good, the Cavs maybe more than any other team out there could use immediate help. Eyenga will not be there. The only thing I can think of is that they want to save that money to spend on a veteran. Green was a good pick for them in the second round. I am not necessarily convinced that he is skilled enough to make the team, but Green is probably pretty close to a finished product and has a better chance of making the team than a lot of other second round picks.

Grade: B-

Dallas Mavericks

Rodrigue Beaubois
Nick Calathes
Ahmad Nivins
Two second round picks

Beaubois may have been a bit of a reach for Dallas, but if he was the man they like then I don’t have much of a problem with that pick, particularly considering I doubt there were many guys available that could have helped immediately. Dallas might as well take a high upside guy that they don’t need to pay now but may be available in a few years when they need to start rebuilding. They were pretty busy with dealing second round picks. They picked up a couple (one which turned into Ahmad Nivins) from Portland in the trade prior to the draft and they picked up another as they picked Mullens for Oklahoma City and got Beaubois back. Then they used a second round pick to get Calathes. That was a pretty good use of a second round pick because Calathes is another guy that might be able to help them after he gets some more work abroad.

Grade: B

Denver Nuggets

Ty Lawson

I probably like Lawson a bit more than the basketball community. Denver could use a point guard behind Chauncey Billups so this was a trade that makes a lot of sense for them. The first rounder they gave up for Lawson was actually a Charlotte first rounder. That makes it a bit risky because if Charlotte sucks that could be a pretty good pick (although there is some protection and I don’t know what that protection is).

Grade: A

Detroit Pistons
Austin Daye
DaJuan Summers
Jonas Jerebko
Fabricio Oberto
Second round pick
Cash

Of all teams that deserve an incomplete thus far for their off-season, Detroit would have to be towards the top of the list. That’s lazy though, so I’ll end up grading them anyway. Let’s see where they stand. First of all, they traded Amir Johnson for Oberto, whom they will likely get rid off. That will provide them even more money, which they will throw at some free agents. Ben Gordon is widely considered to be one of the targets. Who will be the other? Carlos Boozer? Hedo Turkoglu? Either way, the couple free agents they get will go along with Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, as well as draft picks Daye and Summers. I am not sure how well it will work, but it might be fascinating. Neither Daye nor Summers are likely to be stars in the league, but they might both be able to contribute a couple minutes (especially as Detroit figures to have some roster spots available). The off-season thus far is probably going as well as Detroit could have hoped.

Grade: B+

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry
Acie Law
Speedy Claxton

That trade that netted them Law and Claxton’s insurance money for Jamal Crawford was good because it probably saved them money and got Crawford off the team. They are probably not getting any production from that trade, but that is most likely OK. Curry in a backcourt with Monta Ellis is not a wonderful thing, but Curry was still the most obvious pick there. Like the Pistons, it is much too early to give the Warriors a grade with any confidence because of the possible trade for Amare Stoudemire. I’m pretty happy with how things are thus far for Golden State.

Grade: A

Houston Rockets

Chase Budinger
Sergio Llull
Jermaine Taylor

R.J. Anderson on Beyond the Boxscore had an interesting take on Houston’s draft. Noticably, the Rockets traded or bought their way into the second round three times. Daryl Morey is one of the smartest, most progressive general managers in the league, so it is possible that the Rockets have noticed that second round picks are undervalued in the NBA. Then again, it might just be a situation where the Rockets needed bodies to fill out a roster and this is the cheapest way to do it. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the Rockets approach the draft in future years. Either way, the Rockets picked up some intriguing players in the second round. Budinger could have gone in the late first round without being a crazy pick and Taylor was a reasonable pick early in the second. It would not be stunning to see either make a roster, and they were able to take another guy they can stash overseas. I am inclined to believe that Morey might be onto something here.

Grade: A

Indiana Pacers

Tyler Hansbrough
A.J. Price

I’m not going to kill the Pacers for that Hansbrough pick. Sure, it seems early to take him in the late lottery, particularly ahead of guys like Earl Clark, James Johnson, and DeJuan Blair. But this is the 2009 Draft. I know a lot of people figured they would go point guard, and that would have been reasonable as well, but they are still OK there (and you can even argue they addressed that with Price, but I don’t imagine Price making the roster). Hansbrough will probably never be a good starter in the NBA, but he is probably good enough to eat up some minutes and I’m not sure they could have gotten much more than that at the 13th pick in this draft.

Grade: B

Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin

There is not a lot to be said about here. The Clippers had one of the easiest decisions to make in draft history and they got it right.

Grade: A

Los Angeles Lakers

Chinemelu Elonu
Two second round picks
Two cashes

The Lakers played this draft the right way. They did not have a need for more bodies, so they picked up money (twice) and a second round pick (twice). They picked up Elonu at the end of the draft, but I imagine that is only because there is not much value out there for the second to last pick in the draft. I cannot imagine he makes the team.

Grade: B+

Memphis Grizzlies

Hasheem Thabeet
DeMarre Carroll
Sam Young
Quentin Richardson
Cash

I think the best thing the Grizzlies got out of this draft was the cash in the Darko Milicic trade. Thabeet is probably going to turn into a great help defender that will be incapable of much else. That’s not great to get out of the second pick in the draft; this draft was weak, but it was not that weak. Carroll might be a good defensive and energy player if he can keep his liver in check. Young is actually my favorite of all their draft picks. He is a relatively ready small forward that should defend well and not be a drain on the offensive end. In fact, he might have been a better fit on a team that could use some ready help where his help might accomplish something.

Grade: D-

Miami Heat

Robert Dozier
Patrick Beverley
Two second round picks

My favorite thing that they did was get a couple of second round picks from the Hornets. There was not a lot out there for them at that point and those picks might come in handy to move up in a future draft to get something they might want. I am not a big Dozier guy as I don’t think he provides much other than athleticism. I’m intrigued by Beverley because he does have talent and I would like to see how he has progressed since leaving Arkansas. Likely he will amount to nothing, but the intrigue is worth it at this point.

Grade: B

Milwaukee Bucks

Brandon Jennings
Jodie Meeks
Bruce Bowen
Kurt Thomas
Amir Johnson

I get what Milwaukee was trying to accomplish with the Richard Jefferson trade (even if I am pretty surprised they couldn’t get anything at all back for him). So, they wanted to clear up money to keep Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions around (or maybe bring in some other free agent). The problem is that as nice as Villanueva and Sessions are, can you really build a contender around them? I’m dubious. This might be especially true regarding Sessions when they decided to take Jennings in the first round. I don’t know that we’ll see a lot of Jennings next year, but I’m excited to see how he plays. I do like the Meeks pick. His scoring ability is good enough where I could see him sticking. I get what the Bucks are trying to do, but I just can’t imagine it will work.

Grade: C-

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio
Jonny Flynn
Wayne Ellington
Henk Norel
Etah Thomas
Darius Songaila
Oleksiy Pecherov
First round pick
Second round pick

David Kahn was at least entertaining. I did not like their trade to Washington at first. I thought Foye was still a bit too good to give up for the fifth pick in a draft like this. Then they were unable to trade up to the second pick to get Rubio. Miraculously the rest of the league lost their minds and Rubio fell to the Timberwolves. I also like Kahn’s attitude towards Rubio thus far. Sure, you can listen to offers from teams like the Knicks, but Kahn has said that the Timberwolves aren’t going anywhere the next year or so anyway, so they are in position to wait a year or two for Rubio if necessary. I completely agree and I don’t want a guy like Rubio to be able to dictate where he goes. It takes guts to sit on him and wait, but I’m happy to hear they are willing to do that. I like Flynn as well, but I am definitely on the bandwagon that Flynn and Rubio do not make a ton of sense together. Rubio probably would have been a better match in the backcourt with Stephen Curry, and I would have absolutely loved this draft if the Timberwolves took Curry. The other big addition was Ellington. I am not positive he can be much more than a shooter in the NBA, but hopefully for Minnesota, the new point guards combined with a good low scoring threat in Al Jefferson will open up some outside jumpers. It would have been tough to do much better than Ellington at the spot they drafted.

Grade: B

New Jersey Nets

Terrence Williams
Courtney Lee
Rafer Alston
Tony Battie

I have no problem with that Vince Carter trade. I’m not sure if a team with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Lee, and Williams is any good, but I’m kind of excited about finding out. Terrence Williams figures to be a pretty good fit for the Nets. Trading Carter will likely mean this team is not all that good right now, but they’ve set themselves up to be players in the 2010 free agent class. The direction the Nets are headed right now is interesting.

Grade: A-

New Orleans Hornets

Darren Collison
Marcus Thornton

I like the Hornets and I want to think of something I like about their draft day, but I can’t find anything. Taking a guy like Collison that can really only play point guard does not make sense for the Hornets. I understand their desire for a better backup point guard, but this is not a team that is a back up point away from doing anything. They lack any depth inside and their wings are all getting pretty old (outside of Julian Wright). Thornton would be good value at 43 and it would even be reasonable to give up a second rounder for him. I don’t understand giving up multiple draft picks for him though. This is a pretty good position for Thornton. Not only does he get to stay home in Louisiana, but he goes to a team that he might make and he gets to play with the best point guard on the planet. If Thornton cannot succeed on this team, it’s not going to happen.

Grade: D

New York Knicks

Jordan Hill
Toney Douglas
Darko Milicic

I don’t think I would have done anything different with the 8th pick, but they have got to be kicking themselves that no one slipped to them. If I were the Knicks I would be spending an awful lot of time on the phone with Minnesota seeing if I could find a way to get Rubio. I’ll be interested to see if Douglas makes it. I like him a lot as a player, but I question how well his game at his size translates to the NBA. The thing with the Knicks that I am most excited about is how this (perhaps final) chapter of Darko’s career goes. The idea that D’Antoni is excited about getting a chance to work with Darko and use him in his system makes me excited. I doubt it works, but it was worth the price.

Grade: C

Oklahoma City Thunder

James Harden
B.J. Mullens
Robert Vaden

Outside if Blake Griffin, Harden was probably the best fit for the Thunder. That doesn’t mean I think it was a smart pick, because I think Rubio will have the better career. That said, I can understand the Harden pick even if I don’t really agree with it. I think my most excited moment of this draft was when Dallas took Mullens for Oklahoma City because I was terrified he would slip two more spots to the Bulls and the Bulls would be tempted to take him. That kind of spells out my thoughts on Mullens. Vaden is a pretty good shooter, but I’d be surprised if he makes the team.

Grade: C-

Orlando Magic

Vince Carter
Ryan Anderson

I don’t really like Carter. I don’t think you ride Carter to a championship. Luckily for the Magic he is probably at the point in his career where he won’t feel like he needs to carry a team (especially a team with some other good talent). The Magic were not going to be bringing back Hedo Turkoglu so they needed to make some kind of big splash to stay amongst the best in the East. I don’t anticipate this working, but it was probably the best option available to them. For that, I give the Magic credit.

Grade: B+

Philadelphia 76ers

Jrue Holiday
Jason Kapono

The 76ers have to be pleased. I was not that high on Holiday going into the draft, but that’s at least in part due to the fact that he could have been a top 10 pick. It is a completely different story at 17. He’s clearly still a gamble at 17, but virtually everyone would be a gamble at 17 and at least the upside with this gamble is very high.

Grade: A-

Phoenix Suns

Earl Clark
Taylor Griffin
Ben Wallace
Sasha Pavlovic
Second round pick
Cash

I liked the Shaq deal for Cleveland, but I also like it for the Suns because they got his money off the payroll. If Phoenix wasn’t going anywhere last year they definitely will not be going anywhere this next year. The Clark pick was a solid one because of the high upside there and he is probably a good fit in Phoenix’s system (assuming they play the same way still under Alvin Gentry). It was a brilliant pick to take Blake Griffin’s brother. Now they can wine and dine Taylor, show him how wonderful they are, and then as soon as Blake can escape from Los Angeles his brother can tell him how great it is in Phoenix. Well done Suns!

Grade: B+

Portland Trailblazers

Victor Claver
Dante Cunningham
Jeff Pendergraph
Patrick Mills

Their trade with Dallas to move up two spots prior to the draft was confusing. By most accounts the Kings were interested in Omri Casspi (and the Kings did in fact take Casspi) so the only guy that really made sense for Portland to take after that trade would be Casspi. Instead they take a guy in Claver that seemingly would have been there at their original pick. Surely Portland knows something the rest of us don’t, but that was odd. I wonder if Portland anticipates one spot for Cunningham or Pendergraph and plan on letting them battle it out for that spot. Mills slipping to the end of the second round is insanity. We already know he can compete with some of the best in the world. Sure, there are questions about his size and questions about whether he is more of a scoring guard in a small point guard’s body. I am not claiming that Mills is going to be an All Star point guard, but if he cannot play in the NBA in some capacity I will be stunned.

Grade: C+

Sacramento Kings

Tyreke Evans
Omri Casspi
Jon Brockman
Sergio Rodriguez
Cash

I think if Evans had stayed at Memphis another yaer or so he probably could have worked himself into a lottery quality player. I’m stunned the Kings actually decided he was there this year in the high lottery. Evans might not be a terrible player, but passing on Rubio is still shocking to me. I like the rest of their day though. By most accounts Casspi will be a pretty decent pick for them in the 20s getting a guy with Sergio Rodriguez’s talent along with a horse like Brockman with the first pick in the second round is pretty reasonable.

Grade: C

San Antonio Spurs

DeJuan Blair
Nando De Colo
Jack McClinton
Richard Jefferson

This has already been a fantastic off-season for the Spurs. The Jefferson trade was fantastic and alone put them back amongst the favorites in the West. Then they somehow had arguably the best rebounder in college basketball history fall to them at pick 37. That is phenomenal for the Spurs. Taking De Colo was a savvy Spurs-like move. I don’t love the pick of McClinton (I would have preferred to see them take another foreigner), but despite his small size he is probably one of the top couple shooters in this draft. That might not be enough to make the team but it is worth a shot.

Grade: A+

Toronto Raptors

DeMar DeRozan
Reggie Evans

Ideally you’d get someone with a bit more polish in the top 10 but ideally there is more talent available in the draft. DeRozan’s upside is still off the charts, particularly if he ever learns to make a jumper. His length and athletic ability might allow him to be a contributor even if he never reaches his massive potential.

Grade: B+

Utah Jazz

Eric Maynor
Goran Suton

A lot of people may have criticized the Jazz for taking a point guard in Maynor when they have Williams. I look at Maynor as a guy with true point guard skills but also a well-developed, broad range of skills that would allow the Jazz to get away with playing Maynor and Williams on the floor together from time to time. I’m not suggesting Maynor should be their starting shooting guard or anything like that, but the Jazz could play them together a bit. The Suton pick was kind of interesting because he kind of reminds me a little of Kosta Koufos. Suton’s lack of athleticism probably keeps him out of the NBA.

Grade: A-

Washington Wizards

Randy Foye
Mike Miller
Cash

Washington appears to be going for the strategy where they just will try to outscore people. That is probably not a winning strategy, but I’m not sure if they had any other options here. Adding Foye and Miller to Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison may not work as a championship contender, but I’m pretty excited to see them try. If they can stay healthy we at least shouldn’t see them in the lottery again.

Grade: B+

2009 NBA Mock Draft

2009-06-23T21:22:00.000-07:00

I put together a fairly lengthy two round NBA mock draft. Obviously I put this together prior to the Washington-Minnesota trade and made the fifth pick with a projected trade in mind (just not knowing who the trade partner might be). Anyway, I'm always pretty bad at this, but here it goes anyway.

ROUND 1
1. Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma

I’m trying to find the last time the number one pick was so cut and dry. I might say 2003, but remember there was actually some talk that Darko could have gone ahead of LeBron. I suppose you can go back one more year to 2002 and Yao was pretty much a lock. I don’t expect Griffin to have the career of LeBron and probably not Yao either. His status as a lock at number one is as much about the strength of the rest of this draft as it is about Griffin. All that said, I love Griffin. His ability to play above the rim and finish was unparalleled in the college game. Even if his offensive game never expands beyond dunks and put backs, he is explosive enough and a good enough rebounder that he should still be a productive NBA player.

2. Memphis Grizzlies

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut

It’s tough to say what the Grizzlies are going to do here. Rubio is probably the second best prospect in the draft, but it seems unlikely that Memphis goes in that direction. Instead I’m guessing they go with Thabeet. Picking a guy like Thabeet with the second pick is a huge gamble, and one I wouldn’t consider making. It is pretty much agreed that Thabeet doesn’t have much of anything on the offensive end. Thabeet deserves a lot of the praise he receives on the defensive end. However, most of his defensive greatness is as a help defender. His ability as a one on one defender is questionable. A lot of attention has been paid to his match up against DeJuan Blair, and rightfully so. Against someone with his strength, Thabeet really struggled. Blair might be stronger than most NBA players, but Thabeet will be facing a lot more guys with that ability. It is going to be a rough transition for Thabeet, one he might never quite get through. Although it’s clear that I don’t buy that Thabeet hype, I understand why it exists. There are not many guys in the NBA that can match his size, and of those that come close, few can match Thabeet’s athleticism. Outside of his tremendous shot blocking ability, he does not seem like a 7-foot-3 player as he can keep up with smaller players from an athleticism standpoint.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

Ricky Rubio, Spain

The concerns with Rubio in Oklahoma City seem to center around how well Rubio and Westbrook will play together in the backcourt and I think those concerns are legitimate. Both have good size for the point, but neither is a good enough shooter or big enough to be an ideal off guard. On the other hand, I’m not sure I ever bought Westbrook as a point guard. Harden would make a lot of sense here (and he is who I would peg for the Thunder if Rubio goes second), but Rubio is the second best prospect in this draft and I would hope that they would go for the best available prospect.

4. Sacramento Kings

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

I may be putting too much faith in Chad Ford’s report that Sacramento has narrowed their choices down to Rubio, Evans, and Flynn. Assuming Ford’s information is true, with Rubio off the board, Sacramento is down to Evans or Flynn. I just can’t put Flynn here, even though it kind of goes against my general philosophy. Flynn is more likely than Evans to have an NBA career, but Evans’s upside is much higher. In cases like that I usually would go for the surer thing. The thing that brings me to Evans over Flynn is that Flynn’s surer thing isn’t really a sure thing. Flynn is maybe 6-feet tall, does not have much of a jump shot, and I question his ability to play a true point. I still don’t know that Evans is a point guard. Evans is another one of those guys that is a solid athlete and has great size at the point, if he can stick there. I like his ability to finish at the rim even if he can’t finish from 8 feet out. If Evans can learn to knock down a jump shot he should be a really good pro.

5. Washington Wizards

Stephen Curry, Davidson

It seems like since the lottery there has been talk that the Wizards are trying to trade this pick. Curry seems to be crawling up the draft boards. If a trade occurs it will probably mean Curry or Harden go here. Considering Curry has a more secure floor (he’s not dropping past 8), I think teams have more incentive to trade up for Curry than Harden. I love Curry. He will play in the NBA and he has the ability to score. He can create space to get his shot and he has a lightning quick release. He could probably play a bit of point in a pinch, but I don’t think he’s a point guard. In fact, playing him at the point removes one of his greatest strengths, which is playing off the ball. He kind of reminds me of a Rip Hamilton with greater range in that regard. I’m not even sure he is a starter in this league, but he figures to be a very dangerous scorer off the bench. I’m again not convinced he is a good match in Washington in the backcourt with Arenas, but that is why I’m saying if Curry goes here it is likely with a trade.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

Jrue Holiday, UCLA

Minnesota needs to find a way to get a point guard out of this draft. Considering point guard is so deep it might be smart to go another direction here and pick up a point guard at 18. Despite the fact that that’s the direction I would probably go, I am giving them Holiday here. I am not all that convinced that Hill would be a great fit here (and he is not the best player available anyway). If I were running the Wolves in this situation I would take Harden and be thrilled that he fell this far, but I don’t really see that happening. With Holiday you’re gambling that the UCLA system was not great for him and we’ll see more of that tremendous natural ability that made him such a highly sought after recruit. That’s really scary for the sixth pick in the draft, but everyone has big warts now.

7. Golden State Warriors

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

This is a need pick for the Warriors as a point guard should be a priority. I already mentioned a few thoughts on Flynn, but he might be the best point guard on the board right now. He is extremely quick and a good finisher for a player of his small stature. Despite really disliking Syracuse, I couldn’t help but be impressed by Flynn. Sometimes he seems to be more interested in scoring or just dribbling than distributing (which may be why Syracuse continually underperformed to its talent while he was there) and that is particularly scary going to a team like the Warriors, but perhaps that is what he was asked to do at Syracuse.

8. New York Knicks

James Harden, Arizona State

No one is picking Harden to go here, but that’s mostly because no one has Harden falling this far. It seems like most people are suggesting that the Knicks are most interested in Curry and Hill, but Harden is definitely a better prospect than Hill and possibly a better prospect than Curry. Truly, it is very unlikely Harden falls this far; in fact, he is probably more likely to go second than eighth. Harden has always been interesting for me to watch because he is one of those guys that sometimes can score seemingly at will, but you don’t always know how he does it; he kind of has an old man’s game. I can’t decide how I think that transfers to the NBA. Still, despite the fact that his scoring ability jumps to the forefront, he is also a capable rebounder and passer, particularly for an off guard. I do have a couple concerns. The first, and much more legitimate concern, is that the left-handed Harden never really seemed to get comfortable going to his right. The second concern is with regard to his final three games of the year. He was horrible. I know taking a three game sample over the rest of his career is really stupid, but it’s hard to block that memory.

9. Toronto Raptors

DeMar DeRozan, USC

DeRozan makes a whole lot of sense for a Toronto team that might be losing players like Shawn Marion and Anthony Parker. It would still be a major stretch to claim you could have any idea what you’re getting with DeRozan, other than a boatload of potential. His size and athleticism will play in the NBA, but it is unclear if the rest of his game will. He is not a very good shooter, but he seems to realize it as he does not take a lot of outside jumpshots. As it is, he shoots a good 52% from the floor, but the shots are not likely to be as available at the next level. He also commits more turnovers than assists, which is unfortunate. Regardless, whichever team takes DeRozan is likely to get frustrated by his rawness and he’ll probably get pretty good right around the time his first contract expires.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Jordan Hill, Arizona

The Bucks would be thrilled if Hill would fall this far, and that would be pretty unlikely. Hill has the size and athleticism to contribute one way or another. There isn’t any reason why he should be a solid defender and a very good rebounder. It’s funny because people seem to report that he has gotten better offensively but his field goal percentage has dropped every year as has his points per shot. Both drops were modest from freshman year to sophomore year, but pretty sizable from his sophomore year to this past year. I really don’t watch enough of Arizona basketball to know exactly why that is, but some of the scouting reports of his improvement don’t seem to jive with his numbers. I would not expect much of Hill on the offensive end of the floor, but he should still be a decent contributor on the defensive end and on the glass.

11. New Jersey Nets

Earl Clark, Louisville

So far in this mock, this has been the most difficult pick for me. I don’t have a clue which direction the Nets will go. Rod Thorn seems to want a big guy, but I’m not convinced that is their biggest need. I would probably go for Gerald Henderson or maybe Brandon Jennings here, but I decided to compromise with Thorn and take a tall guy that isn’t really a big (which probably makes it even more incorrect). I don’t really like Clark though, and the reason is just because how good he should be. I’ll watch about 5 minutes of a Louisville game and be blown away by his raw ability and then realize he really was just a good college basketball player but he certainly wasn’t great. I don’t get it, but I also don’t believe that is a good sign for his NBA career. If he manages to put his ability together and reach his potential he would be an absolute steal here, but I didn’t see the signs at Louisville that that is likely.

12. Charlotte Bobcats

Gerald Henderson, Duke

This is a popular pick across several mock drafts, and it is pretty easy to see why. Charlotte has a need on the perimeter and Henderson is pretty clearly the best wing on the board. Henderson is a guy that seems to have improved over his career at Duke. I don’t think he is ready to be a high impact player immediately, but the upside is there with continued improvement to be a decent starter in the NBA. He seems to be a pretty bright player, he has good athleticism, and he has demonstrated a willingness to work. Those factors suggest that even if he never really gets it offensively, he should be a pretty good defensive player. I could see a first year impact for Henderson kind of like what we saw from Courtney Lee in Orlando. You could do worse.

13. Indiana Pacers

James Johnson, Wake Forest

Earlier in the year when I turned on a Wake Forest game it was often more to check in on Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu. Often Johnson turned into my favorite player on that team. Then again, at other times he, like the rest of his Wake Forest team, just seemed so stupid. Johnson has a load of basketball skills (although shooting does not seem to be one of them). Like the entire Wake Forest team, I often wondered why a player of such great physical gifts would hang out on the perimeter and shoot jump shots. With his physical ability he is terrifying when he attacks the basket. What does all that mean for Johnson? I don’t know, but I’m not confident that it’s good. All the physical ability in the world won’t do a whole lot of good if he doesn’t know how to use it. I would have loved to see him back at Wake Forest next year.

14. Phoenix Suns

Brandon Jennings, USA

Point guard is the number one need for the Suns, but Jennings is pretty far and away the best prospect available right now. Well, I guess I think that’s the case. The problem with Jennings is that not many people really know how good he is. After playing in high school he goes to Europe and barely plays. Now he hopes to be a lottery pick. Any team that takes him will be taking a big leap of faith. He is even more of an unknown after he decided not to play at the Reebok Eurocamp. He can work out for all the teams he wants, but those are still workouts and not 5-on-5 games. The ability is certainly there but there is no way to know the likelihood that he reaches his massive potential.

15. Detroit Pistons

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest

When rumors came out that B.J. Mullens had a promise in the top 16 initially people assumed that meant the Bulls at 16. That rumor slowed down and then people thought perhaps it was from Detroit. Mullens makes a bit of sense here, but the need for a point guard is greater. The only problem with that is that Teague is probably not really a point guard either. Teague is a very good scorer and can certainly hold his own as a shooter. Unfortunately he is not a very good distributor and he is somewhat turnover prone. I don’t buy Teague as a point guard, but I do buy him as an scoring-minded combo guard. I’m not positive that’s what Detroit wants with Teague, but that doesn’t mean they can’t use him.

16. Chicago Bulls

DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh

If this happens, the talk of a Mullens promise in the top 16 would be false. Mullens does not seem to be part of the Bulls M.O. The Bulls recently seem to be fonder of college players that have actually done something than the high potential players. Blair would fit that mold and fit in well with the Bulls current roster. In the post he can play the horse to Thomas and Noah’s gazelles. The question is whether Blair can score in the NBA when he will mostly be playing below the rim. He has shown in his match ups against Thabeet that the ability is there. He probably will never be a huge scorer in the NBA, but he will certainly be able to rebound effectively.

17. Philadelphia 76ers

Eric Maynor, VCU

The 76ers could use help at the point (where Andre Miller is a free agent) as well as on the wing. Terrence Williams would be a reasonable pick, but I expect them to stay at the point. Maynor is the best available point guard and a personal favorite of mine. Maynor is another guy that has improved thoughout his impressive four-year career. Maynor’s upside may not match that of most of the other point guards in this draft, but Maynor might be the safest bet of them all. Maynor has the ability to do it all. He can score, he is a capable shooter, he can distribute, he is a decent rebounder, and he is a solid defender. He may not excel at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything. His main weakness is that he is weak. He could benefit from a trip or two to the weight room, but even without that he should be pretty solid.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves

Terrence Williams, Louisville

I was thinking maybe Minnesota would have been better off going for wing help with the sixth pick but instead gave them a point guard. That would work out pretty well if Williams is truly on the board at 18. Williams is an intriguing player. He has pretty decent size and he is a solid athlete. He has demonstrated an ability to rebound and distribute the ball. Unfortunately his scoring numbers have never been all that great because he is a pretty poor shooter and is inefficient when he shoots the ball. Athletically he looks like he should be good, and there are a lot of things he can do to contribute to a basketball team, but shooting really is not one of them. He could be a liability on the offensive end if he can’t turn that around.

19. Atlanta Hawks

Ty Lawson, North Carolina

I guess I understand why Lawson won’t go a whole lot higher than this. He is undersized. He really has only played at one speed. Would he be as effective playing more of a halfcourt game? He is coming off a recent injury. However, despite his lack of size, he has pretty solid finishing ability around the rim. He has really improved his outside shot (he shot over 47% from three point range this past year). For the speed he plays, he has done a decent job of keeping turnovers down. His productivity at North Carolina was phenomenal. For an Atlanta team needing a point guard with the 19th pick, they really could not ask for better than Lawson.

20. Utah Jazz

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

When I started this mock I was not planning on having Hansbrough go at this pick because everyone seems to place him here. I could see Hansbrough going earlier, but I have a hard time seeing him drop much beyond here. It was funny to read so many people be stunned that he tested well athletically at the combine. Throughout his career his heart and grit and hard work and intangibles had been talked about to the point that it kind of became a punch line. Listening to that type of analysis you would think Hansbrough was a 5-foot-8 paraplegic or something. I never really understood that. All of that talk about intangibles completely overshadowed the fact that Hansbrough is actually a talented basketball player. He’s still going to be a below average NBA athlete, but that’s OK. His basketball skills should make up for that and allow him to be a productive player.

21. New Orleans Hornets

Wayne Ellington, North Carolina

New Orleans is at the point that they should just take the best player available, even if that player happens to be a point guard. Paul could use a more capable backup to give him a bit more rest. They could use more post depth and on the wing they are getting old (outside of Julian Wright, anyway). They could use another shooter to help open the floor for Paul and help slow the double-team down to West. Ellington fits that bill. (Also, that is three straight Tar Heels in this mock. Interesting!) I’m not sure Ellington does anything other than shoot, and for a guy with a one-dimensional profile I wish his shooting numbers were a bit better. Still, his stroke is pretty nice and he should be able to get his shot off in the NBA, even with a height disadvantage. It would not be stunning if Ellington busts (or slips a bit beyond this point).

22. Dallas Mavericks

B.J. Mullens, Ohio State

Mullens is unlikely to drop this far, but he really should drop at least this far. Mullens has legitimate 7-foot size, he appears to be a pretty good athlete (at least during those moments during a game where Thad Matta decides he is good enough to play), and is probably strong enough to play in the league. Just physically Mullens appears like he could be an NBA player. It’s just unfortunate that you can watch a good chunk of an Ohio State game and not even realize he is on the team (and sometimes that’s even when he is on the floor). I am not going to criticize the guy for going pro. He’s locked into getting a first round contract; if I were him I’d probably go pro too. It’s just a shame because I wonder what he might become if he were to stay at Ohio State a bit longer.

23. Sacramento Kings

Austin Daye, Gonzaga

Although Daye is not typically the type of player I like, I do like Daye. He actually has contributed some for Gonzaga; the disappointment is that he has not done more. He is a pretty good shooter, a decent rebounder, and his outrageous length provides him with the possibility of becoming a frustrating defender. It has not all come together yet, but the signs are there. The big concern is obviously that the guy is nearly 7-feet tall and can’t top 200 pounds on the scale. That’s a problem, and he’s going to need a lot of time in the weight room.

24. Portland Trailblazers

Omri Casspi, Israel

This is Portland so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them not pick here. By most accounts, Casspi has done fairly well in the workouts, although he isn’t all that strong. His lack of strength doesn’t prevent him from being willing to get inside and wrestle around for position or a rebound. He sounds like the type of player that opposing teams and their fans will hate. The skill level is probably not elite, but it appears to be good enough to stick. With no glaring needs, Portland can go for depth at any position they would like, and small forward is a reasonable decision.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder

Chase Budinger, Arizona

After taking Rubio in the first round, the Thunder would probably like to go big here. The problem is that there are certainly no worthwhile centers available and the power forwards are borderline at this point (like Taj Gibson or Derrick Brown). The first time I saw Budinger was in a slam dunk contest his last year in high school. The guy is incredibly explosive and he’s a pretty good shooter. His numbers at Arizona were pretty solid as well. He rebounds pretty well and averaged about 3.5 assists per game. But why is it that a guy with his incredible physical skills seems so content with being merely a jump-shooter so often? And why does a guy with such wonderful size for an off guard (or even good size for a small forward) hate defense so much? At this point in the draft a guy like Budinger is pretty solid. He might end up with a disappointing career, but he should at least be a capable shooter in the NBA.

26. Chicago Bulls

Patrick Mills, St. Mary’s

There has been some talk that the Bulls are interested in getting a point guard so they can play Rose off the ball some. I’m not sure I love that part of the logic, but I do like the idea of getting a backup point guard. Getting another big guy would also make sense, but Mills is much better than any big man available. The competition for best player available would include guys like Sam Young or DaJuan Summers but I’m not sure that either is a good fit for a team that already has Luol Deng and John Salmons. The promising thing about Mills is that you know he has the ability to play with the elite players from his experience in international play with Australia. He has great quickness and finds a way to score. The problem is it is tough to see how he does it sometimes. He is not much of a jump shooter, he’s pretty small, and sometimes has trouble scoring inside. As a point guard, he is not a very good distributor. If it weren’t for his Olympic performance I would not see him going this early. Is that basing too much on a fairly small sample size of games? It might be.

27. Memphis Grizzlies

Sam Young, Pittsburgh

Memphis can pretty much go in any direction here. Even after taking Thabeet, it would not be crazy to go for more size. They have Conley at point, but they’re thin behind him. On the perimeter they have Gay and Mayo, which is pretty nice, but they could use more depth behind them. Young would fit that bill. I love that one of the criticisms of Young is that he’s already 24. Teams love youth, even if that youth will not be good until their contracts are up and they move on somewhere else. Instead, with Young, you get a guy that can probably come in and contribute some immediately. It’s true that he’s probably not going to be a star, but it is also unfair to say he has maxed out on his potential. He has improved a huge amount from his first couple years at Pitt, perhaps most notably with his jumper.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves

Jonas Jerebko, Sweden

I don’t know that the Timberwolves can find room on their roster for three rookies. If anyone can it would be Minnesota, but it still makes sense to take a foreign player and hope he doesn’t come over immediately. I don’t know that Jerebko is not planning on coming over immediately, but if he would stay abroad it would be nice for Minnesota. By most accounts Jerebko is long, athletic, and raw, so even if he comes over it seems unlikely that he would be able to play anytime soon anyway. If we don’t see a Minnesota trade, I would be surprised if we don’t see a foreigner at this point in the draft.

29. LA Lakers

Taj Gibson, USC

The Lakers can really go in any direction here. It would not be crazy to take a point guard, especially with Fisher getting super old. It would not be crazy to get Kobe another player on the wing. It would not be crazy to go big, especially if they anticipate losing Odom. With that last piece in mind, I have the Lakers keeping Gibson in LA. Gibson’s stock has taken off since the end of the season, which is a phenomenon that always scares me. His athleticism and length are pretty remarkable. He’s another guy that, like Sam Young, is getting penalized for not being 19. Still, this is a guy that improved throughout his time at USC, is a pretty good rebounder, and an efficient scorer. He could stand to put on a bit of weight, but Gibson is a good gamble at this point in the draft.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers

DaJuan Summers, Georgetown

The important moves the Cavs make this off-season will not be happening in this draft. They need another legitimate contributor on a championship contender, and that’s just not going to happen at this pick. Instead, at this pick, they need to just take the best player available and hope they do the rest of their work well during the rest of the off-season. At this point Summers is the best player available. Summers has improved offensively in his time at Georgetown, primarily as a shooter as he was able to develop three point range. At the combine his size suggested he could probably play a bit of power forward in the NBA. If he were to do that he would need to find a way to be a better rebounder; he’s just not very good at that right now. Summers is an intriguing player that has probably underplayed to his ability thus far in his career. It seems unlikely that that would turn around in the NBA.

ROUND 2
31. Sacramento Kings

Derrick Brown, Xavier

I wonder if Brown would have returned to Xavier if Sean Miller hadn’t left for Arizona. Now he’s squarely on the first round bubble. Brown is a good, strong athlete with great length. He has developed pretty good range on his jump-shot and his natural athletic ability allows him to be pretty solid around the rim. He is one of those players whose production does not match his talent. The upside is pretty good, but it is pretty unlikely that he reaches that big potential.

32. Portland Trailblazers

Darren Collison, UCLA

I have a hard time believing Portland keeps all of their second round picks, but assuming they do, they will probably just go with the best available player each time. Collison is a good shooter and super quick, but he is pretty small and lacks a good assist to turnover ratio (although I’m willing to listen to an argument that Collison would look a lot better if he went somewhere other than UCLA). As you would expect for someone that played under Ben Howland, Collison is solid on the defensive end of the floor.

33. Washington Wizards

Marcus Thornton, LSU

Honestly, Thornton is probably not a great fit in Washington because he really thrives as a scorer and that is tough playing alongside Arenas (not to mention Jamison and Butler). Thornton is the best player on the board at this point due to his explosive scoring ability. He has shown the ability to score in a variety of ways, with a solid outside jumper as well as from the foul line.

34. Denver Nuggets

Toney Douglas, Florida State

Billups is getting older as a point guard so they could use some younger help there. Douglas may only be a point guard in size, but his explosive scoring ability is impressive and could be enough to provide some minutes off the bench for offense. Unfortunately he does not really do anything other than score.

35. Detroit Pistons

DeMarre Carroll, Missouri

Carroll is probably nothing more than an undersized, effort, tweener type of player. I suppose in the second round there is nothing wrong with that and the Pistons are a team that might have minutes available.

36. Memphis Grizzlies

Rodrigue Beaubois, France

I don’t think it’s a bad idea to get someone to back up Conley. It sounds as though Beaubois probably is not ready to do that at this point, however. He is basically described as a long, toolsy, raw point guard with a low basketball IQ.

37. San Antonio Spurs

Nick Calathes, Florida

This seems like the type of pick the Spurs would make. Calathes will probably end up in Europe for a year and the Spurs can re-evaluate him during that time as they plan their roster for the 2010-11 season. Calathes is a smart enough player that he should be able to overcome any athletic limitations to play some in Europe. I’m unconvinced that it will play in the NBA, but the Spurs can watch him and take another year so make that decision.

38. Portland Trailblazers

Victor Claver, Spain

If Portland keeps picking they’re going to take some foreign players. Claver is a guy that will get late first round consideration. He lacks strength and experience but has the height and athleticism to be intriguing.

39. Detroit Pistons

Nando De Colo, France

De Colo has intriguing size at the point guard position although he does not wow people with athleticism or quickness. He is a capable shooter and reportedly displayed a good basketball IQ at Eurocamp.

40. Charlotte Bobcats

Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona State

Pendergraph is a guy that I always thought deserved a bit more NBA consideration than he receives. He may not be all that strong, but he’s got good size, he is an efficient low post scorer, and he is a pretty good rebounder. In such a weak draft he probably deserves to go earlier than this.

41. Milwaukee Bucks

Jermaine Taylor, Central Florida

Taylor was a big time scorer at Central Florida, but he completely dominated the ball to do that. He is a bit undersized for a 2-guard and is not an incredibly efficient scorer. He is a pretty good shooter and rebounds well for a guard, but once he gets the ball he usually does not give it up.

42. LA Lakers

Patrick Beverley, USA

The former Arkansas guard dominated Eurocamp. The physical ability is there, and it was there at Arkansas too. If he has learned how to play as a point guard this could be a steal, as long as the Lakers don’t ask him to write any term papers.

43. Miami Heat

Dionte Christmas, Temple

To be truthful, Christmas did not live up to expectations his senior year. With decreased efficiency on the offensive end, he seems to have leveled off some. Still, he can really score. As long as not much else is expected, this is a reasonable pick. His athleticism will prevent him from doing a lot more in the NBA.

44. Detroit Pistons

Emir Preldzic, Slovenia

Detroit will head back overseas if they keep drafting here in the second round. Preldzic is a small forward playing in Turkey whose production probably has not matched his ability at this point in his career. While I think that means something in college, I don’t think it necessarily means anything professionally abroad.

45. Minnesota Timberwolves

Sergey Gladyr, Ukraine

Gladyr is playing in a Ukrainian league that is not highly regarded. He is also fairly young, but he is performing well. It will probably be a couple of years before he’d consider coming to the NBA, but that makes him valuable at this point.

46. Cleveland Cavaliers

Josh Heytvelt, Gonzaga

Whereas a lot of teams are probably looking for guys that will not play for them immediately, the Cavaliers would probably love to find someone that can contribute. Heytvelt’s athleticism for his size is impressive and he has shown to be capable of scoring both from midrange and by the basket. On a team that could be losing a lot of their post presence, Heytvelt might be able to be a contributor (as long as someone can keep him away from the shrooms).

47. Minnesota Timberwolves

Henk Norel, Netherlands

Norel is not close to ready, but he’s got potential with good height, length, and athleticism. Minnesota probably does not have a problem with that at this point, with five draft picks.

48. Phoenix Suns

Danny Green, North Carolina

Green is not great at anything but he’s not terrible at anything either. He won’t ever be better than a third or fourth player off the bench, but the likelihood of him becoming that is probably better than typical at the 48th pick.

49. Atlanta Hawks

Dante Cunningham, Villanova

Cunningham lacks ideal size or athleticism for a power forward in the NBA, but he made pretty good strides from the time he entered Villanova to the end of his senior year. I like Cunningham, but probably as a college player more than a pro.

50. Utah Jazz

Jodie Meeks, Kentucky

It is pretty absurd that Meeks is going to go so late. His scoring ability was phenomenal this year and he is not a terrible defender. Sure, he is undersized, and sure, he’s a poor distributor. Guys with similar knocks are projected to go a lot higher, and a lot of those guys weren’t 23 point per game scorers at Kentucky. I wouldn’t say Meeks is going to be a great pro or anything, but I’m confused as to why he is not considered more highly as a prospect.

51. San Antonio Spurs

Christian Eyenga, Spain

The Spurs have a couple of late picks in this draft and if they keep them I would assume they would go with guys overseas. Eyenga is young and raw and is a good pick for this point in the draft.

52. Indiana Pacers

A.J. Price, Connecticut

It’s tough to know what could have been with Price, had he not decided to steal laptops and destroy his ACL. He is still a talented point guard with a pretty decent jumper. I don’t know if his point guard and distributing skills are NBA caliber. Probably not.

53. San Antonio Spurs

Slava Kravtsov, Ukraine

Kravtsov is a 7-footer with pretty good athleticism. I think he’s terrible at basketball at this point.

54. Charlotte Bobcats

Paul Harris, Syracuse

Harris is very strong and athletic. His only skills that are NBA ready at this point are probably rebounding and dunking. None of his other skills show a lot of promise.

55. Portland Trailblazers

Milenko Tepic, Serbia

Tepic’s game and body are not nearly NBA ready, and Portland would be OK with that at this point.

56. Portland Trailblazers

Sergio Llull, Spain

Llull has good size for a point guard and is fairly athletic, but it will be a few years before he makes it over.

57. Phoenix Suns

Jeff Adrien, Connecticut

Adrien has a skill that could be NBA quality as he can rebound. I doubt that skill will be good enough to let him stick.

58. Boston Celtics

Jerel McNeal, Marquette

McNeal is a guy that might be undersized, but he can score inside and out and he is a good defender. He is another guy that I like more than the rest of the basketball community.

59. LA Lakers

Jack McClinton, Miami

McClinton is another guy that is a 2-guard in a point guard’s body. He can score and he can really shoot with all kinds of range. I don’t know that he does enough to make it in the NBA, but that skills is good enough that it may be worth a look earlier than here.

60. Miami Heat

Jon Brockman, Washington

There are rumors that Brockman has a promise somewhere in the second round. I don’t like him more than a few people that I had go undrafted, so I had no where to put him. However, if he was promised to be drafted I had to put him here before the draft ended.

College Basketball Odds and Ends

2009-03-25T20:49:00.000-07:00

Overall, the NCAA Tournament has been hashed and rehashed to death, so I am going to try to avoid doing that too much. Still, there have been a few college basketball notes from the past week worth addressing.

A lot has been made of the amount of chalk in this tournament, and that has led to some talk about whether the NCAA Tournament is now fundamentally different. There is no part of me that believes that is true. There have been a number of close games that has lead to where we stand right now. Just take a peek at the close calls that the teams seeded 1-3 had to get where they are now.

In the Midwest, Louisville nearly lost to Siena. Michigan State could have lost to USC. Kansas has rolled pretty well, although they struggled a bit in the first round against Ben Woodside.
In the West, Connecticut has rolled, but Missouri easily could have lost to Marquette and Memphis might have lost to Cal State Northridge had Roburt Sallie not randomly become incredible.
In the East, Pittsburgh could have lost either one of their games. Duke had a close call with Texas and Villanova was down by double-digits at halftime.
In the South, North Carolina had a struggle for 35 minutes against LSU, Oklahoma was fought pretty well by Michigan, and Syracuse pretty much rolled.

I look at it this way. The 1-3 seeds have done a remarkable job of winning games that could have been lost (and have been lost every other year of the tournament). That sets up some fantastic Sweet 16 match-ups, but the odds of all of these teams reaching this point were really long. In fact, if you believe the wonderful vegaswatch.net, the odds were a about 1 in 140, or even less likely than East Tennessee State reaching the Sweet 16. Two pretty chalky years do not necessarily indicate a trend, although it is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple years.

I am saddened a bit by the Nate Miles/Connecticut controversy because I do not really care about it. It is a shame that a cheating story like this is broken and I could not care less because I assume it is happening virtually everywhere (at least at the big time basketball schools like Connecticut). I am not going to pretend to know what kind of punishment the NCAA might throw at Connecticut, but my guess is that the overall result of this story will be nothing. This will not bother Connecticut this year, even if the timing of this story was interesting. This will also likely not bother Connecticut in the future.

I was disappointed to hear Seth Curry was leaving Liberty because anything that broadens the scope of interest in college basketball is a good thing. Curry transferring to some ACC school will not result in anyone paying any more attention to ACC basketball; they get plenty of attention as it is. At the same time, it will be real interesting to see where Curry ends up and how he performs against greater competition, but the kid can obviously score and teams should be beating down his door to pick him up.

Speaking of the Currys, Seth’s brother Stephen has a tough decision ahead of himself as well. I have a hard time imagining that Stephen’s stock will vary much if he comes back for his senior year. Considering the Curry family is well off financially and Curry genuinely seems to enjoy his time in college, it would not shock me to see him return to Davidson. While Curry’s stock seems fairly solid regardless of when he comes out, this year’s weak draft could result in some interesting players testing the NBA Draft waters. With a weaker draft we could see a greater number of fringe players thinking they could sneak their way into a first round contract that might not make it in a future, stronger draft. Obviously this would not affect someone like Blake Griffin that is going at the top of the draft regardless, but there are a number of guys that might leave that could impact the landscape of the college game next year.

We already have a start to the coaching change season as Andy Katz is reporting that VCU’s Anthony Grant is Alabama’s only target and that Georgia is going to go after Missouri’s Mike Anderson (why Anderson would go for this I have no idea). The biggest coaching news is not official yet, as Billy Gillispie might be done after just two years at Kentucky. Gillispie getting fired at Kentucky could start a huge domino effect. Kentucky would obviously be going after a big name, perhaps first Florida’s Billy Donovan. Should Donovan end up at Kentucky, I imagine Grant would be at the top of the list at Florida, which would obviously impact the Alabama search. If Kentucky is able to somehow pull John Calipari away from Memphis, then Memphis would be picking someone wonderful off some other school. The impact of a Gillispie firing could be fascinating stuff, not just at Kentucky, but also around the nation.

Previewing the South Region

2009-03-17T20:53:00.001-07:00

I am putting together a little overview of the first round of the tournament with a brief preview of the rest of the tournament. You will probably get a good sense of what my bracket will look like after this.

SOUTH REGION
1 – UNC vs 16 – Radford

North Carolina was the overwhelming favorite going into the season and the injury bug has bitten them a little. Their best defender, Marcus Ginyard, got injured and will miss the year. Tyler Hansbrough missed four of the first eight games. Now Ty Lawson missed the ACC Tournament with an injury. I consider this pretty simple; if Lawson is healthy and 100%, this is the best team in the tournament. The scoring options in the starting lineup are frightening. They can score inside, via penetration, and from the outside jumper. There is not a weak link offensively, but defensively is another issue. They are not horrible defensively, but it is definitely the weakness. If Lawson isn’t 100% the team is not nearly the same, but I am assuming he will be pretty good and they are the favorites.

That means Radford stands no chance, obviously. The only story here will be Artsiom Parakhouski. He is a big guy and averaging about 16 and 11. It will be fun to see if he matches up with Hansbrough at all. On the outside Kenny Thomas is a capable scorer, but this team is woefully overmatched.

8 – LSU vs 9 – Butler

LSU is an athletic team led by Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell. They are a couple of athletes that Butler will have all kinds of trouble matching up with. Combined they average about 37 points and 13 rebounds, so they will clearly be critical to LSU’s chances. LSU is not a particularly big team as their tallest player is the rail thin Chris Johnson. They could be given some trouble by a good big man. LSU is legitimately the best team in the SEC, for whatever that’s worth (hint: it’s worth nothing).

Matt Howard is not a huge big guy, but he’s plenty talented to hurt LSU inside. The LSU athleticism will definitely give Butler problems, but Butler is probably better in the half court. Brad Stevens has done a remarkable job with this really young team; Butler starts three freshmen, a sophomore and a junior. For as much as Butler is a team that always seems to be here in March, that is not necessarily true for this particular group of Bulldogs. Perhaps some of that youth is an explanation that Butler is just 4-3 in their last seven games (with a couple close calls amongst the wins). I expect LSU to win this game, but neither team can challenge North Carolina.

5 – Illinois vs 12 – Western Kentucky

Illinois has four players averaging 10 points per game (yes, I’m rounding Trent Meacham’s 9.6 up), which is pretty incredible when they only average 35 points per game as a team. Jokes aside, Illinois is pretty bad on the offensive end. They do, however, play good defense (4th in the country by Pomeroy’s rankings). Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale provide good height in the post and Demetri McCarney and Meacham are pretty good guards. They will miss Chester Frazier’s defense and they will need to find someone else to play his 33 minutes. That is especially troubling for a team that does not play a very deep bench. They are going to get tripped up sometime early in the tournament because they simply struggle to score.

I figure Western Kentucky will be that team to trip them up. This is obviously a different Western Kentucky team than last year as Courtney Lee is with the Orlando Magic and Tyrone Brazelton is gone. Still, their backcourt is fantastic. Orlando Mendez-Valdez was the Sun Belt POY as he has taken his game up a level with the increased minutes. You could still argue that he is not their best guard, however, as A.J. Slaughter is excellent. It will be critical for them to avoid foul trouble as they really only go 7 deep (but probably prefer to go just 6 deep). Western Kentucky is going to be horribly outsized in the post, but their perimeter play should be enough to pull the upset. If Frazier were healthy it would be questionable as to whether he would take Slaughter or Mendez-Valdez. Without Frazier I don’t know who takes either.

4 – Gonzaga vs 13 – Akron

Gonzaga’s top six players are very good, but they do not like to go beyond those six. Still, those six are all dangerous and all average at least 9.2 point per game. Micah Downs and Austin Daye both present big match-up problems. The key will probably be Josh Heytvelt (insert your favorite mushrooms joke anytime here) as he, and Daye to a lesser extent, need to stay out of foul trouble because Gonzaga has no size behind them. If Gonzaga plays well and uses their great balance to get everyone involved they are a really tough team to defend. This is a team physically capable of making a run.

Akron is probably not going to score a ton of points, so they are going to need to rely on a pretty decent defense. They are actually lead in scoring by Brett McKnight, who comes off the bench. In the starting lineup Nate Linhart is a good defensive player that averages 10.3 points per game and Brett McKnight’s brother Chris is also a capable scorer. A critical flaw in this Akron team is the fact that their point guard, Humpty Hitchens, has more turnovers than assists on the year. That is also a big red flag, but so is the overall lack of size. If Gonzaga focuses on getting into the post, Akron is going to have a tough time doing anything about it.

6 – Arizona State vs 11 – Temple

Arizona State has a really good starting five. James Harden is obviously one of the best players in college basketball. I never quite understand how he scores so often considering he might as well play with his right hand tied behind his back at times, but the guy is incredible. On the inside Jeff Pendergraph plays very well and has some explosive athleticism. Point guard Derek Glasser and Rihards Kuksiks are both excellent three point shooters. Ty Abbott has a place on the roster, but that place is not the offensive end. Arizona State might as well put Abbott in a lawn chair in the corner on offense, but the rest of the Sun Devils score well enough that they would be OK with that. Any time you have a player as good as Harden you have the possibility of making a pretty good run.

What Temple does will be largely dependent on what star guard Dionte Christmas does. He is a fully capable scorer, but he has been less efficient in his senior year than he was his sophomore and junior years. He is going to need to make the most of his scoring opportunities to keep up with an excellent Arizona State scoring attack. Temple’s second best player is the 6-9 Lavoy Allen. He is their second best scorer and the team’s best rebounder. Sergio Olmos may be a 7-footer starting for Temple, but he is still unlikely to grab as many boards as Allen. There is not a lot of depth on this Temple team and for them to advance they will need someone to help Christmas on the offensive end. Allen is a candidate for that, as is Ryan Brooks. Brooks is the player you need to watch most closely from three-point range. I am not expecting Temple to beat Arizona State, but if Christmas plays well that would change everything. He could single-handedly push Temple past Arizona State if he plays well.

3 – Syracuse vs 14 – Stephen F. Austin

All year Syracuse has not been as good as they were in the Big East Tournament. So, what should we expect? Should we expect that Syracuse team or the still very good Syracuse team that played the rest of the year? I would expect regression. Frankly, looking at the roster it is a mystery they are not better than they are. Jonny Flynn is one of my favorite point guards in the country. Eric Devendorf is extremely dangerous, especially if you are a female’s face. Paul Harris, Andy Rautins, and Arinze Onuaku are also capable scorers. Those five, plus Rick Jackson, are really all the guys Jim Boeheim wants to play. Syracuse has the talent to beat probably anyone in the country; last week proved that. However, I don’t trust them on a consistent basis and a first weekend loss would not be surprising.

Stephen F. Austin is a terrible offensive team, but they play good defense and will try to slow down Syracuse and force them to take bad jump shots. They are capable of doing that for a little bit. Ultimately, their inability to score will catch up with them. They do have two guys that will try to put up some points. Last year guard Josh Alexander was the Southland POY and he can shoot from outside and he is capable of getting to the line as well. Over the course of his career his three point percentage has continued to fall from 48% as a freshman, to 44%, to 41% and this year to a still respectable 35%. Whereas last year Alexander was the conference POY, this year his teammate in the post, Matt Kingsley, took home the honor. Averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds a game, Kingsley could pose some problems to the Syracuse frontline, perhaps even getting Onuaku in foul trouble. Alexander and Kingsley will probably play well for stretches, but they will not have enough help to scare Syracuse.

7 – Clemson vs 10 – Michigan

Clemson is a pretty good offensive team. Trevor Booker is a load inside and averaged about 15 point and 10 rebounds. Terrence Oglesby is a fantastic shooter that does virtually nothing else. K.C. Rivers can score and he is a pretty good rebounder from the wing, but he is not a terribly efficient scorer. Demontez Stitt is a quick point guard that is solid as long as he avoids trying to shoot the ball. Clemson likes to pressure full court but they are not a great defensive team. This was a typical Clemson year where they started 16-0 before finishing the year 7-8. This is not a team playing very good basketball and it would not be surprising to see their season end before the weekend starts.

That would be good news for Michigan. Of all the Big 10 bubble teams, Michigan had the best pair of wins as they beat UCLA and Duke. I really like Michigan in this game, not only because Clemson is playing so poorly, but also because I absolutely trust John Beilein in the NCAA Tournament. His offense creates good looks from three-point range and the 1-3-1 defense tends to give fits to teams without much prep time. Offensively Manny Harris is the key guy. He is not a particularly good shooter (which someone needs to tell him; he shoots deep shots far too often for his ability level) but he does an excellent job of getting to the foul line. DeShawn Sims is Harris’s running mate and he is fully capable of scoring and is a good rebounder as well. Sims, like Harris, also shoots far too often from the outside. To make a run Michigan will need to be hitting their outside shots, because they take a ton of them. Guys like Laval Lucas-Perry, Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Kelvin Grady are going to need to be knocking down their jumpers. I actually trust that that could happen.

2 – Oklahoma vs 15 – Morgan State

I am going to try to prevent this from becoming a love letter to Blake Griffin, but it is going to be tough. He is completely ridiculous. His numbers are insanely good. He scores about 22 points per game with an incredible 1.70 points per shot thanks to his 63.5% field goal percentage. Imagine if he could hit free throws! That is pretty much the lone weakness in Griffin’s game. He is an absurd rebounder. Somehow, even with Griffin on the team, there are more numbers to go around. Willie Warren had a very good freshman year. I might argue that Warren should grab more rebounds, but considering Griffin, and his brother Taylor, average over 20 rebounds a game combined, I am not sure there are any more rebounds to go around. The Griffins just grab them all. Tony Crocker is a pretty good three-point shooter and Austin Johnson has done a pretty good job at the point guard position for this Oklahoma team. Oklahoma has the best player in this field. The only concern I have is whether the rest of his team is good enough to consistently get him the ball. If they play a team with a tough to figure out defense that could frustrate their guards and a unique offense that opens up the floor for three-point shooters, Oklahoma might end up going home earlier than they would like (and maybe earlier than I would like, because I really like watching Blake Griffin; maybe I’ll get to see him play for my Bulls next year).

You could point out that Morgan State was able to win at Maryland. That’s true. However, that would be neglecting to mention that at times Maryland is absolutely horrible. Reggie Holmes is an OK scorer, but he falls in love with the three point shot more than he should. His teammates are going to have to try to find a way to help him score, because it is unclear if he can do it himself and he is definitely not going to help his teammates score as he averages a whopping 0.5 assists per game. Somehow Marquise Kately, Kevin Thompson, and Rodney Stokes are going to have to find a way to control the Griffins on the boards. I don’t know how that would happen.

Previewing the East Region

2009-03-17T14:55:00.001-07:00

I am putting together a little overview of the first round of the tournament with a brief preview of the rest of the tournament. You will probably get a good sense of what my bracket will look like after this.

EAST REGION
1 – Pittsburgh vs 16 – East Tennessee State

Pittsburgh is a completely legitimate pick for national champion. Surprisingly, Pomeroy ranks their offense better than their defense (2nd versus 34th). Their offensive ability starts with their guards. Levance Fields and Jermaine Dixon each post good assist/turnover ratios. Sam Young is a dynamic offensive player and DeJuan Blair is a beast. Despite not being particularly tall, this is the best rebounding team in the nation. You are going to have to beat this team because they will not beat themselves, with the notable exception of at the foul line where the Panthers struggle. If Blair can stay out of foul trouble, Pittsburgh will be an incredibly tough out and despite a lack of a successful tournament history, it is hard to imagine a Final Four without this team.

East Tennessee State obviously will not beat Pittsburgh, but their three starting guards (Courtney Pigram, Mike Smith, and Kevin Tiggs) are all pretty good scorers. This is not a bad scoring team and if they are shooting well they might hang alive with Pitt for 5-10 minutes. Still, eventually Blair will eat them alive.

8 – Oklahoma State vs 9 – Tennessee

Oklahoma State is a very good offensive team, led by point guard Byron Eaton and forward James Anderson. Oklahoma State loves to shoot the three, which they need to do well because they are a pretty small team. In Anderson, Obi Muonelo, and Keiton Page, the Cowboys have plenty of options outside that shoot it very well. If Oklahoma State gets past Tennessee it should be interesting to see Blair battle down low against Marshall Moses. Both Blair and Moses are not the tallest pot players, but while Blair is incredibly strong, Moses is pretty thick too. While Oklahoma State’s three-point shooting ability could make for an intriguing match-up against Pitt, should the Cowboys get past Tennessee, it is hard to imagine Oklahoma State competing enough inside to get past the first weekend.

Tennessee is a confusing team. They still have some fantastic athletes and they do use them to run and try to force an up-tempo game. However, far too often they decide they want to use their great athletes in a game of horse. When Tennessee attacks the rim they are tough, but they seem to fall in love with the jump shot; that is something they have no business doing. Scotty Hopson is the only one that should have the green light, and even then he should be selective. The fact that two terrific athletes with good size like Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism have combined to shoot over 210 three-point shots is inexcusable. Ultimately I expect this to be the difference in this first round game. Oklahoma State knows who they are and Tennessee sometimes does not seem to. If the Volunteers take advantage of their superior athleticism to force a quick game and if they attack the rim, they likely win. I see little evidence that they will be able to do that.

5 – Florida State vs 12 – Wisconsin

Ultimately Florida State’s chances are going to come down to Toney Douglas’s ability to score. Florida State plays very good defense, but their options are limited after Douglas. Luckily for the Seminoles, Douglas is a fantastic scorer with the ability to get to the line and make free throws as well as knock down the outside shot. Fellow senor Uche Echefu is a solid second option capable of knocking home double figure points. Super freshmen Chris Singleton and the 7-1 Solomon Alabi have great potential even if they lack big time numbers. The Seminoles go pretty deep, but ultimately their success will be tied to the success of Douglas. That should be enough to at least get though one round.

Wisconsin is not all that different from Wisconsin teams of the past. They are in the Big 10 so you know they don’t like games where points are scored. They lack a big time scorer and will likely have trouble scoring against a good, athletic Florida State defense. They will probably need to have some luck knocking down outside jump shots with Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon. I would be surprised if they hit enough to beat Florida State.

4 – Xavier vs 13 – Portland State

Xavier is playing probably their worst basketball of the year right now as they have lost 5 of their last 10 games. Xavier plays pretty good defense and they get pretty balanced scoring from B.J. Raymond, C.J. Anderson, and Derrick Brown. However, they can only score when they are not turning the ball over. That is something they do far too often. It is unlikely that an overseeded Portland State team can take advantage of this, but Xavier may have trouble when they are faced with the athleticism and defensive ability of Florida State.

Portland State is a pretty lousy defensive team, but they can score, led by the tiny yet fun Jeremiah Dominguez. Portland State may have beaten Gonzaga earlier in the year, but frankly they are lucky that Montana State knocked off Weber State in the conference tournament. Weber State had owned Portland State this year and Portland State was going to have to earn the automatic bid on Weber State’s home floor. Ultimately this is not a particularly strong 13 seed and I do not expect them to pose too much of a threat to Xavier.

6 – UCLA vs 11 – VCU

UCLA is probably a bit whiny about having to go to Philadelphia and play Villanova in the second round at the Wachovia Center. Frankly, if they are not a bit whiny they should be. UCLA’s offense has actually been fantastic this year, although you wouldn’t know if it you watched them play USC in the Pac 10 Tournament. Their starting 5 is very talented and they are led by point guard Darren Collison, who is likely a first round pick. Collison, along with Josh Shipp and Nikola Dragovic, is a very good three-point shooter and Alfred Aboya has had a very good year on the perimeter. If Jrue Holiday plays up to his elite ability UCLA may be able to make a run that I frankly do not see happening right now. This UCLA team is missing that truly elite talent the Bruins have had in previous years, and that is why we see them as a 6 seed. This is a beatable team that may not even get the opportunity to face Villanova.

While Collison is a terrific point guard and a likely first round NBA Draft pick, he is the second best point guard on the floor when UCLA plays VCU. There is not much that can be said about Eric Maynor that has not already been said, but Maynor is just a fantastic player capable of putting a team on his back and pulling off a victory. You know that this is going to be an extremely popular upset pick and it is for good reason. Maynor is not alone on this team as Joey Rodriguez is a capable scoring backcourt mate and Larry Sanders is a good defensive big man that is the team’s second leading scorer. I’m not quite as confident as others seem to be about VCU winning this game because I think UCLA’s defense is good enough to give VCU fits (even if Maynor gets his). I would say this first round match-up is just about a toss up.

3 – Villanova vs 14 – American

Villanova is a very good sleeper pick to reach the Final Four. I would be surprised by anything but a Villanova-Pittsburgh regional final and remember that in their lone game this year Villanova beat Pittsburgh by 10. Scottie Reynolds is the big name on the team that is capable of putting up some huge numbers, but the real story here is Dante Cunningham. Villanova has been heavily guard oriented over recent years, but Cunningham has lead Villanova in scoring from the post this year. The problem for Villanova is that outside of Cunningham the only real post guy on the team is Antonio Pena. If they get in foul trouble down low they will get in trouble. Still, even if that happens Villanova has a fantastic set of guards that can overcome a lack of post game against most teams.

One of those teams would be American. I was excited to see who American would get matched up against because I saw them as a potential upset pick. That ended when they got matched up against Villanova. Garrison Carr is clearly American’s best player and is capable of scoring plenty of points against Villanova. He will need help from Derrick Mercer (Mercer and Carr combined to make up a very short backcourt that combined do not come close to reaching 12 feet tall) and Brian Gilmore in the post. American is a good enough team to compete with Villanova for a brief amount of time, but a double-digit loss is almost guaranteed.

7 – Texas vs 10 – Minnesota

Doqus Balbay is the key to Texas because he is clearly the weak link in the starting line-up. We know A.J. Abrams can shoot, we know that Damion James is a great scorer and rebounder, we know Dexter Pittman is a huge man, and Justin Mason is a pretty quick perimeter player and a solid defender. Balbay needs to be able to do something to bring this team together. This could be the reason why they simply do not score the ball very well.

That could be trouble against a Minnesota team that defends pretty well. Brian Westbrook’s cousin Lawrence is a capable scorer and the only double-digit scoring Gopher. (Westbrook, combined with Ralph Sampson’s son, makes Minnesota possibly the team in the tournament with the best athletes in the family; I might be wrong, but I am not sure who would compete with them.) Minnesota is a deep, young team that figures to be better in future years. Still, I expect them to be good enough this year to get past Texas. If this game is close late, Blake Hoffarber has a history of some ridiculous buzzer beating shots (go to Youtube).

2 – Duke vs 15 – Binghamton

In previous years Duke has had some big time post players like Carlos Boozer and Mr. Candace Parker. A problem Duke would have in those years is that those guys, who were such critical parts of those teams, would get in foul trouble and the whole team would be messed up. They seemed to have solved that problem by not having any post players on the team. Duke can shoot the ball and is a very good offensive team and they play very good defense. That’s all fine and good, but at some point they are going to miss that interior scoring presence as they struggle to score inside. That probably will not be fatal in the first weekend, but I have a hard time seeing them get past a more well rounded Villanova team.

America East coaches may not have liked that D.J. Rivera was automatically eligible to play at Binghamton after transferring from St. Joseph’s, but they also might just be bitter because Rivera was pretty good. Rivera lead the team in scoring at 20 points per game, but Malik Alvin, Emanuel Mayben, and Reggie Fuller also score double digit points. Fuller is the team’s tallest starter at 6-6 (but a svelte 195 pounds). They obviously have very little size, but they are playing Duke, so that’s OK. Binghamton can score well enough that it is possible they could be competitive for a little bit, but they are not going to beat Duke.

Previewing the West Region

2009-03-16T20:36:00.001-07:00

I am putting together a little overview of the first round of the tournament with a brief preview of the rest of the tournament. You will probably get a good sense of what my bracket will look like after this.

WEST REGION
1 – Connecticut vs 16 – Chattanooga

This Connecticut team is good and I have no problems with them as a #1 seed. Still, keep in mind that this is the same team (-Jerome Dyson but +Kemba Walker). Sure, that was last year and this was this year (and this year’s version put together a much better version than last year’s version that may have been lucky to get a #4 seed). Connecticut’s fantastic defense is lead by the huge Hasheem Thabeet and Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrien pose an impressive front line. There will be a lot of pressure on A.J. Price, Craig Austrie, and Walker to help out the post play. I have no doubt that the defense will be solid, but I fear there will be games where the points become hard to come by and Connecticut struggles at the foul line. That, combined with a hot shooting team, probably keeps Connecticut from winning a national title.

Chattanooga was probably the fourth best team in the Southern Conference (behind Davidson, College of Charleston, and The Citadel). Davidson or College of Charleston could have been a fun team to watch in this tournament, but Chattanooga will not be. They also do not get to play Connecticut at home, as they did their conference tournament. Perhaps if they got Connecticut at home they would be able to keep this game within 30 points. As it is, that would be quite a moral victory.

8 – BYU vs 9 – Texas A&M

BYU is pretty strong both offensively and defensively. Offensively they are smart and are able to create good shots through the offense, which allows them to have one of the best team shooting percentages in the country. Defensively they seem to not take too many chances as they do not force many turnovers. They will try to force misses and clean up on the boards. They are not very deep and feature a big three of Lee Cummard, Jimmer Fredette, and Jonathan Tavernari. All three are very capable scorers and all three can knock down an outside jumper. At some point they are going to run into someone that can really defend and their shots are not going to fall. Frankly, if they beat Texas A&M that will likely happen against Connecticut.

They probably will beat Texas A&M though. The Aggies are not a great defensive team, although Bryan Davis and Chinemelu Elonu make a pretty good frontline. Josh Carter is a solid scorer and he and B.J. Holmes are pretty good shooters. They have pretty good depth as well, as they are capable of going 9 deep, with pretty good balance in their starting rotation. Obviously it would not be a stunner if they beat BYU, but I do not expect it to happen.

5 – Purdue vs 12 – Northern Iowa

Matt Painter’s team is very strong defensively. I would say overall this year has been a slight disappointment for the Boilermakers, but that mostly happens on the offensive end. If Robbie Hummel’s back is healthy and he and teammates E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson can provide some scoring punch, they will be tough to beat. Hummel is back to playing plenty of minutes and they will need him to really get the offense going. If Purdue is getting scoring, they can make a run.

Northern Iowa is not a flashy, exciting team. They would kind of fit in well with the Big 10 teams except for the one flaw that they do not excel defensively. They are OK defensively, but not wonderful. That may work out OK going against an offensively challenged Big 10 team like Purdue that may not be able to score that easily against an average defensive team. One key for Northern Iowa will be the 7-1 Jordan Eglseder. Eglseder has ability and scores and rebounds at a good rate, but conditioning keeps him at only 19.2 minutes per game. Eglseder may need to play more like 28 minutes of good basketball to have a chance. In addition to Eglseder, they will need good play on the glass from their best player, Adam Koch, and the Valley’s 6th man of the year, Lucas O’Rear. Also, Northern Iowa does not have great shooters, but Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Ali Farokhmanesh, Johnny Moran, Travis Brown, and Kerwin Dunham can all knock down an outside shot. Those shots are going to have to be dropping to get them past Purdue. These are all things that can happen and makes this game worth watching, but they are unlikely.

4 – Washington vs 13 – Mississippi State

Washington is capable of going 9 deep but really relies on four guys. Those four guys are very good though. They are probably better if Isaiah Thomas is a bit more selective with his shooting and allows the more efficient Justin Dentmon, Jon Brockman, and Quincy Pondexter be greater scoring options. They are also best if they get the tempo up and going and attack the rim rather than settle for jumpers. Really Dentmon is the only guy to trust from three-point range (much to the dismay of Thomas). This team really is good though. Although both Purdue and Washington are capable of losing in the first round, a second round game between the two would be a lot of fun.

Mississippi State’s Adjusted Defense rank from Pomeroy is 59. That is pretty horrible for a team with a force like Jarvis Varnado inside. Varnado could easily be the best defensive player in the country and he leads the team in scoring too. On the perimeter you need to guard Barry Stewart, Ravern Johnson, Dee Bost, and Phil Turner (Bost, in particular, impressed me in the SEC Tournament). Ultimately this team is not good enough, even with Varnado’s awesomeness. They looked like an NIT team and, frankly, that is where they belong. I do not see them beating Washington.

6 – Marquette vs 11 – Utah State

The big story with Marquette will be the loss of Dominic James, and for good reason. Since he was lost for the year Marquette is 1-4 and their one win is against St. John’s. The fact that those losses were competitive shows that Marquette has plenty of talent remaining. Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, and Lazar Hayward are fantastic. Over the course of the year offensively Marquette was one of the best teams in the country. It is tough to know what that means without James. Defensively they were OK, but again, that was with James. Because of a lack of size, they like to play up tempo and force turnovers. Their lack of depth, lack of size, and lack of a point guard (sorry Maurice Acker) will catch up with them eventually, preventing them from making a big run.

Gary Wilkinson was a deserving pick for WAC POY. He provides a tough post presence and he is better inside than anything Marquette has. Utah State does not play very good defense, but they will need to slow down tempo and make this a half court game to prevent Marquette from just running them out of the gym. If they can do that, Utah State’s offensive efficiency could pose Marquette all kinds of problems, especially in the post with Wilkinson and Tai Wesley. It will be the job of Jared Quayle, Tyler Newbold, Stavon Williams, and Pooh Williams to stay competitive with Marquette on the outside. Ultimately I respect the talent of McNeal, Matthews, and Hayward too much to think Utah State will win, but if they do win it would not be too much of an upset.

3 – Missouri vs 14 – Cornell

Missouri uses their deep roster and their athleticism to run teams out of the gym. The Tigers are blessed to have a couple of big guys in DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons that (decided not to stay in the NBA Draft last year) can play in such a system. Typically in March I like talented teams that play unique, difficult styles, and Missouri certainly fits the bill. If they can control tempo and hit a few jump shots, Missouri could be a reasonable sleeper team to make a Final Four run.

Unfortunately for the Cornell guards in this game, they do not do a wonderful job of taking care of the ball. There will be a lot of pressure on juniors Louis Dale and Geoff Reeves to avoid turnovers that turn into easy Missouri buckets. If Cornell is going to provide a first round surprise, they will need big games from Dale and Reeves, but they will also need Ryan Wittman and Jeff Foote to have the game of their lives. Wittman is a quality outside shooter that isn’t shy from outside the three-point line. In fact, he took 19 threes against Syracuse this year. If the game can slow down, the seven-footer Foote can give the undersized Missouri frontline some problems. However, I do not see the Cornell guards being able to control tempo and this should turn into a pretty easy Missouri win.

7 – California vs 10 – Maryland

Mike Montgomery has done a real nice job with this Cal team because they are not that wonderful. However, they have been playing very well, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. Cal has been the best three-point shooting team in the country this year, shooting an incredible 43.4% from outside. They move the ball around well offensively to find an open look and they hit those shots at a pretty remarkable rate. Cal will need Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, and Theo Robertson to be nailing those outside shots. That should be good enough to get past a mediocre Maryland team, but it is unrealistic to hope for much more success than that.

Maryland’s complete lack of consistency might be the sign of an overrated coach (who is, at the very least, a douche bag). They were able to put together wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Michigan State, but they also managed to lose by 22 to Gonzaga, 27 to Georgetown, 1 to Morgan State, 41 to Duke, and 29 to Clemson. I am still not completely convinced they are a tournament team, but they were definitely right there on that bubble. Greivis Vasquez is capable of doing a lot of things. He’s a decent rebounder and he shares the ball pretty well. However, despite scoring 17.2 points per game that is more a product of a high volume of shots than actual ability as he averages a poor 1.13 points per shot. Still, he is their most dangerous player and Maryland will need him and a few others to be knocking down shots that maybe they usually don’t knock down in order to beat Cal. Due to Cal’s over-reliance on the three-pointer that is certainly possible. However, it is very difficult to imagine them knocking off Memphis.

2 – Memphis vs 15 – Cal State Northridge

According to Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive rankings, Memphis is by far the best defensive team in the country. That alone should get them out of the first weekend. Their length and athleticism should give teams fits. Beyond that they are going to need to find a way to score points consistently. Memphis has athletic players that can get to the rim (including star freshman Tyreke Evans), but if they run into a team that is capable of preventing them from driving and forces them to take jump shots Memphis will get in trouble. Outside of Robert Dozier and Roburt Sallie, Memphis should not want any of their players taking threes (and someone needs to give that memo to Evans and Doneal Mack). This should not pose a problem to Memphis this weekend as Maryland is just not very good and Memphis is a tough match up for a Cal team that does not guard against dribble penetration all that well and that might be stymied on the perimeter by Memphis’s pressure defense. This could potentially set up a fascinating Sweet 16 match-up against Missouri.

Cal State Northridge actually plays pretty good defense, but they sometimes really struggle to score. That poses a lot of trouble against a team like Memphis. They like to play an up tempo game and Memphis will allow that. They will need a ton of easy baskets created from their defense to be remotely competitive against Memphis. Although a few are possible because Memphis does turn the ball over a bit, it does not figure to be near enough to make this game competitive.

Previewing the Midwest Region

2009-03-16T14:01:00.000-07:00

I am putting together a little overview of the first round of the tournament with a brief preview of the rest of the tournament. You will probably get a good sense of what my bracket will look like after this.

MIDWEST REGION
1 – Louisville vs 16 – Alabama State/Morehead State

I totally buy Louisville as having earned the #1 overall seed in this tournament. They earned the #1 seed in the conference tournament for arguably the best conference in America, and then they won that tournament. With North Carolina’s loss early in the ACC Tournament, Louisville seemed to me to be the only choice. After giving all that support to Louisville, I would not argue they are the best team in the country. Balance is nice, and Terrence Williams and Earl Clark are pretty wonderful, but there are several potential match-ups in the field where the opponent will have the best player. It also disturbs me that a team with guys like Williams, Clark, and Samardo Samuels does not do better on the glass. Their three biggest losses on the year (Western Kentucky, Connecticut, and Notre Dame) had them beat on the glass by a combined 41 rebounds.

As far as the play-in game goes, I think we have two possibilities. One is that people will get to talk about the giant monstrosity that is Chief Kickingstallionsims (he is more than a fun name; the dude is 7-1, 265!). The other possibility is a lot of immature Morehead jokes. I would recommend getting those fellatio jokes ready to roll.

8 – Ohio State vs 9 – Siena

Ohio State relies pretty heavily on Evan Turner, Jon Diebler, and William Buford. That’s OK though because those guys are pretty good and provide good punch from the perimeter. The Buckeyes would be much more dangerous if they could get something out of B.J. Mullens, because he is really the only post scoring presence Ohio State has. Dallas Lauderdale is a good defensive player and a wonderful shot blocker. This first round game could obviously go either way, but I have a hard time seeing Ohio State getting past Louisville.

If B.J. Mullens is ever going to have a big game it may be against Siena. Siena is a really fun team to watch with an incredibly good starting five, but they lack a lot of size. Ryan Rossiter has played well this year as their big man, but he is 6-8 227, a far cry from the size Mullens brings to the table. Outside of point guard Ronald Moore, Siena probably turns the ball over a bit more frequently than you would like, but the big three in the rotation are pretty wonderful. Ohio State will have a tough time with Kenny Hasbrouck, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin. This first round match-up is about as tight as can be. I am not sure who I will eventually pick to win, but I am not convinced either team has the post presence to take advantage of Louisville in the second round.

5 – Utah vs 12 – Arizona

Expect to see no more than 7 Utes see the floor next weekend but the size of Luke Nevill might make it seem like 10. Nevill is an efficient offensive player and a good rebounder and shot blocker. Utah has other capable scorers, particularly Lawrence Borha and Shaun Green, but to make any kind of run in the tournament they will need Nevill playing well. I fear Utah’s perimeter quickness and the fact that they’re turnover prone (I don’t think they have a good, true point guard) will eventually be their undoing.

The problem Arizona has in trying to stop the Utah offense is that Arizona does not really stop anybody’s offense. Arizona’s chances in the tournament are pretty clear, and they revolve around Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Nic Wise. Hill and Budinger are likely lottery picks and Wise is a fringe NBA player. Anytime you have that kind of talent on the floor, you stand a chance. The problem is that the NCAA Tournament is not a 3-on-3 battle. It is this lack of depth and the inability to play defense that has turned Arizona into a #2 seed in the NIT this year.

4 – Wake Forest vs 13 – Cleveland State

Wake Forest might be the most talented team in this entire field. Jeff Teague is a great guard (even if he is not a great point guard), Al-Farouq Aminu is a possible #1 NBA Draft pick whenever he decides to come out, and James Johnson might also be a first round pick. If Wake Forest gets into an up and down game and can use their incredible post athleticism (and avoid having to showcase their basketball skills), I am not sure if there is anyone that can beat them. Unfortunately, this Wake Forest team is still young and controlling tempo may not be easy. Earlier in the year when Wake Forest was playing well, I considered Wake Forest a potential national champion team. I now think they lack consistency for that, and in fact, if they play like they did against Maryland (lazy) they will not get past Cleveland State.

Bubble teams were upset when Cleveland State went into Hinkle and beat Butler for the automatic bid. That really was not all that surprising as Cleveland State was probably the most physically talented team in the Horizon League this year. They play solid defense and are not a bad rebounding team, despite being undersized. As a pretty bad shooting team, sometimes points can be hard to come by, but if J’Nathan Bullock can score on the inside and get some help on the perimeter from Norris Cole and Cedric Jackson, I give the Vikings a chance. The only way they will get this chance, however, is to control tempo. If they can keep Wake Forest from running and turn it into a halfcourt game, Cleveland State’s defense could keep them in this game and maybe give them a win.

6 – West Virginia vs 11 – Dayton

West Virginia can pose teams problems with their size. They are not huge in the post, but 6 of the 7 guys they will play are 6-6 or taller. Pomeroy loves this team, with a defensive ranking of 7th, an offensive ranking of 15th, and an overall ranking of 8th. They could be a pretty good sleeper pick as a 6 seed. If they can get good perimeter shooting from Darryl Bryant, Alex Ruoff, and Da’Sean Butler, they will be very tough to beat. It would be fun, and not all that surprising, if this tournament turns into a coming out party for the spectacular freshman Devin Ebanks. I think I like this team making a run.

Dayton is a solid defensive team with good athletes. They can pressure the perimeter and force a bunch of steals. Chris Wright is a huge talent that can play with anything West Virginia will put on the floor. As far as Dayton’s offense goes, they play pretty good defense. I am excited to get to see Chris Wright maybe get matched up a bit against Ebanks and Marcus Johnson is a pretty solid player too. I just don’t see how this team scores enough to keep up with West Virginia.

3 – Kansas vs 14 – North Dakota State

Bill Self has rightly gotten a bunch of consideration for national coach of the year. He has done a really good job with a team with just one senior (little used Matt Kleinmann) and he spread around his minutes well. This team should be ready for a really good run in the NCAA Tournament next year. Kansas lacks the consistency you would like to see out of 3 seeds, losing games to teams that were unable to put together an NCAA Tournament worthy resume, including Massachusetts, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Arizona. Athleticism and rebounding should serve them pretty well, but I am not convinced it will be enough to get them out of the first weekend. In fact, they might even get a scare from North Dakota State.

Kansas better have on their defending shoes when they face North Dakota State. Ben Woodside is a stud and it would be fun to see him put up another 60 on the Jayhawks. However, check out the numbers on not only Woodside, but his teammates Brett Winkelman, Mike Nelson, and Michael Tveidt. If Kansas fails to guard the three point shot, the Bison will hang in this game longer than you would think. A win would certainly be surprising, but it would not be the biggest upset in tournament history.

7 – Boston College vs 10 – USC

I could talk some about Rakim Sanders, and how he is a dangerous player in the backcourt. I could talk about how Joe Trapani was a really good freshman at Vermont before transferring to Boston College and continuing what figures to be a solid college career. I could talk about how the four sophomores in the starting lineup mean Boston College has a pretty solid future ahead of them. And all of that would be true. Honestly though, it comes down to Tyrese Rice. If Boston College does anything in the tournament it will be because Rice is awesome. You might look at their schedule and wonder how they lost to teams like St. Louis and Harvard. Rice did not play well in those games. Boston College does not play well enough on the defensive end of the floor to overcome a bad game from Rice.

USC is going to get a ton of minutes out of Taj Gibson, Dwight Lewis, DeMar DeRozan, and Daniel Hackett. After those four they will mix and match with that final spot in the lineup. There is talent in that big four, but this is still not a very good offensive team. They do not have very good shooters and they do not take good care of the ball. I would have a hard time putting a lot of faith in this USC team because for much of the year they simply weren’t all that good. However, the guys they have on the floor should be better than the guys Boston College will put on the floor (with the big, notable exception of Rice). If they play well, this USC team could escape the first weekend, but I would expect them to probably beat Boston College.

2 – Michigan State vs 15 – Robert Morris

Not surprisingly, Michigan State brings it on the defensive end and on the boards. What separates them from the rest of the Big 10 is that they have scored more than 35 points in every game this year! This Michigan State team is pretty deep. Kalin Lucas had a good year at point guard and Raymar Morgan is an NBA talent (although I think he might be the only one). There are enough questions about this team that I hesitate to have them advance too far in the tournament. What happened against North Carolina (and I get Goran Suton did not play)? What happened against Maryland? What happened against Purdue? None of those losses are all that bad, except the margin of victory for their opponents was a shocking 23.7 points. But, what happened at home against Northwestern and Penn State? I have a hard time seeing a deep run from this team. In fact, a second round loss would not be shocking.

A loss in the first round certainly would be shocking. It would be fun to see Jeremy Chappell and Jimmy Langhurst knock down a ton of threes and keep them in the game, and I suppose that is even possible for a brief period of time. Even if they are able to find a way to get some open shots, they are going to get killed in rebounding. Still, this is a team that lost by 8 at Miami (and trailed by just 2 with 6 minutes to play). There is some talent here, but not enough to put a legit scare into the Spartans.

Selection Sunday LiveBlog

2009-03-15T14:44:00.000-07:00

Let's do this!

Selection Sunday LiveBlog

Chad's Bracket Projection

2009-03-15T14:27:00.000-07:00

1 - UNC, Pitt, Louisville, UConn

2 - Memphis, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan St

3 - Syracuse, Missouri, Kansas, Wake Forest

4 - Villanova, Washington, Illinois, UCLA

5 - Gonzaga, Xavier, Arizona St, Florida St

6 - W Virginia, LSU, Purdue, Clemson

7 - Utah, Ohio St, Marquette, Tennessee

8 - Oklahoma St, Texas, Cal, Butler

9 - Texas A&M, USC, Dayton, Boston College

10 - BYU, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland

11 - Wisconsin, Temple, St. Mary's, Utah St

12 - Sienna, Mississippi St, Cleveland St, VCU

13 - W Kentucky, N Iowa, Binghamton, American

14 - Stephen F Austin, N Dakota St, Akron, Robert Morris

15 - Portland St, Cornell, E Tennessee St, CS Northridge

16 - Morgan St, Radford, Morehead St, Chatanooga, Alabama St

The Bubble

2009-03-15T12:44:00.000-07:00

I know Chad will be putting up his bracket soon, but I want to throw my thoughts on the bubble. I'll be curious to see what Chad says. I have 2 spots for 11 teams (and I was pretty generous considering some of these bubble teams). So, here is how I look at the bubble. And yes, this is in order.

Maryland

San Diego State

----------CUT LINE---------

St. Mary's

Creighton

Arizona

Penn State

New Mexico

UNLV

Virginia Tech

Auburn

Providence

Come back during the selection show for the liveblog!

LiveBloggin' the Selection Show

2009-03-14T17:06:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow during the Selection Show head over here to chat with us. We'll be discussing it all as it is unveiled.

I Hate the Eye Test

2009-03-14T09:14:00.000-07:00

Watching Hubert Davis talk about the "eye test" nearly killed me. That sounds like a wonderful idea. Let's do everything we can to increase subjectiveness and bias. Fantastic. By my eye test the Missouri Valley should get 10 teams in the field. You can't say I'm wrong because that's what my eyes say.

In order for someone's eye test to have any validity they must have seen every team play. Unless you have seen an adequate sample of each team (Malcolm Gladwell be damned), you cannot compare these teams using an eye test. No one, not even Davis, has seen all 347 teams enough to do this. I won't believe it.

A Fun Friday in College Basketball

2009-03-14T07:30:00.001-07:00

The only loser in the Big 10 that I imagine is in trouble is Penn State. Their resume stands up OK with other bubble teams, but I could see them getting punished for their horrific non-conference schedule (and for the record I would be 100% on board with that punishment). I cannot wait to see how these Big 10 schools fare next week.
In the SEC, this has to be the end of Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina, right? The stunning thing is that three of the teams in the SEC semifinals are SEC West teams. Does that mean the SEC West is better than I have been giving them credit for all year? Of course not. All it means is that the SEC East is nearly as bad as the SEC West. If there is any justice in this world, the SEC will be two-bid league.
It will be fascinating to see what the committee decides to do with St. Mary’s. I am torn on this myself. I do think that with Patty Mills at 100% St. Mary’s is a tournament team. He did not look 100% in he WCC tournament. Then they added the game yesterday against Eastern Washington. There are two problems with this. First, nobody could see it so who knows how Mills looked. Second, it was against Eastern Washington. If Mills looked good, does it even matter? St. Mary’s wouldn’t be facing any Eastern Washingtons in the NCAA Tournament.
I am not too sold that either UAB or Tulsa had a shot at an at large bid with a loss to Memphis in the final. With that said, even though UAB is the sexier team with the better computer numbers, Tulsa has a better shot at knocking off Memphis. UAB at their best is probably better than Tulsa at their best, but UAB is much less likely to be at their best. Now if Jerome Jordan can stay on the floor and out of foul trouble and Ben Uzoh and Ray Reese can get hot, some bubble team’s dream may die.
Who would have guessed we would see Temple and Duquesne in the A-10 final? Xavier and Dayton are in good shape for getting into the tournament, but they did not leave a good final impression for seeding (or prognosticating once I see them in the field).Xavier had a huge scoring drought at the end of the game and Dayton cannot seem to score points if you can slow them down.
North Carolina better hope this week is long enough to fully heal Ty Lawson because they do not look like a #1 seed without him. With him I still think they are the NCAA Tournament favorites, but they keep proving that the preseason hype was a bit overblown.
Staying in the ACC, Wake Forest looked atrocious. Congratulations to Maryland for getting into the field, but that was one of the more lazy defensive performances I have seen in a while. Wake Forest seemed disinterested in closing out on shooters and using their incredible athleticism to compete on the glass. While I call their defensive play lazy, their offensive play (settling for threes far too often) could also be described as lazy. I don’t care if they still nab a #3 seed, if they play like that they could lose the first round. (And the most frustrating thing is that if they play intelligently and with energy I am not sure who in the country can beat them; this could be a Final Four team. These are the frustrations of youth, I suppose.)
Utah State’s impressive comeback against New Mexico State just might end up costing a bubble team a bid. I have a hard time seeing them winning the final on Nevada’s home floor and then they will jump right into that bubble picture.
The Mountain West now looks like a three bid league with San Diego State’s win over BYU. Call me crazy, but I could see the Aztecs staying in the NCAA Tournament longer than their conference mates BYU and Utah. Lorrenzo Wade and Kyle Spain are more dangerous than what BYU and Utah will throw out there.
I am more surprised by Baylor’s regular season conference play than I am by this run in the tournament. The problem for bubble teams is that Baylor might have more talent than Missouri. This should be a really interesting game, but I think I expect Baylor to nab the automatic bid.
Parts of watching UCLA lose to USC reminded me of Wake Forest’s game against Maryland. I think the similarities were mostly with the horrible shooting, because there were some differences. The most important difference is that I think UCLA was trying. They just suck.
Was I the only one that watched Doris Burke’s postgame interview with Eric Devendorf and started yelling, “Look out Doris! Run! He’s standing right next to you!”?

Thursdays's Bubble Winners and Losers

2009-03-13T05:50:00.000-07:00

Winners
Oklahoma State - Most had the Cowboys on the right side of the bubble, but there should be no doubt after their win over Oklahoma.

Virginia Tech - The VT/Miami game looked to be an elimination game and the Hokies came out on top. I'm not convinced they're in for sure, but they managed to keep their tourney hopes alive.

Kentucky - The Wildcats probably aren't in yet, but a win over LSU today would help a lot.

Michigan - The Wolverines are squarely on the bubble and a loss to Iowa could have ended their tourney hopes. A win over Illinois would have Michigan feeling pretty good about their chances.

Minnesota - Another Big 10 team squarely on the bubble. They have a chance to lock up a bid with a win over Michigan State.

Temple - Temple beat a decent St. Joseph's team and now gets a shot for a signature win against Xavier.

USC - The Trojans probably still have work to do, but a win over Cal is a nice start.

Penn State - Avoided a bad loss to Indiana and can lock up a bid with a win over Purdue.

Losers
Arizona - The bad news is the Wildcats lost 5 of 6 to end the season. The good news is they should get back on track with a nice match-up in the opening round of the NIT.

Kansas State - K-State needed a second win over Texas to make up for their weak non-conference schedule.

Miami (FL) - The 'Canes will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but 7-9 in the ACC going 4-8 in their last 12 probably means Miami will be left out.

UNLV - With their 9-7 record in the MWC, the Rebels needed to do some work in the conference tournament. Their loss to SDSU knocks them completley off the bubble.

Rhode Island - The loss to Duquesne ends the Rams NCCA hopes.

New Mexico - I had a hard time seeing 4 teams from the MWC earn bids and with their loss to Wyoming, New Mexico may be the team that gets left out.

Wednesday's Bubble Winners and Losers

2009-03-12T05:52:00.000-07:00

Winners

Providence? - The Friars won a must-win game, but a win over DePaul is not going to impress the committee. They'll need a win over Louisville tonight to feel good about their chances.

Losers

Notre Dame - The fact that I even have to mention them disgusts me. Every time ESPN puts Notre Dame's tournament resume on the screen I scream and want to throw something through my televsion. Hopefully all the crazy talk about the Irish as a potential tournament team will end now (though nothing is certain when it comes to ESPN and Notre Dame).

Texas A&M - Teams try to avoid giving the committee a reason to leave them out. Blowing a 20-point lead to a bad Texas Tech team is a reason. The Aggies are most likely OK but at the very least they probably cost themselves 2 or 3 places in seeding.

A rather upsetting day, huh?

2009-03-10T21:07:00.000-07:00

(Ha, get it?)

This was a pretty remarkable day. It started with DePaul's stunning upset of Cincinnati that may have knocked two teams out of the tournament. Not only is Cincinnati clearly done, but Providence now loses an opportunity for a worthwhile win as they get DePaul rather than Cincinnati. A win over DePaul likely will not be enough for Providence as they will probably also need a win over Louisville. That, obviously, is unlikely.

One upset followed another at Madison Square Garden as Georgetown had any slim hopes killed as they lost to St. John's. Now there is talk that Georgetown might not even be an NIT team. That's probably extreme.

The worst news of the day for bubble teams was Cleveland State's upset win over Butler. I am not all that upset by this (and I'm even a fan of a bubble team) because I really enjoy watching that Cleveland State team. Their win did not seem very flukish and I'm not convinced they're much worse than Butler even though their seeds will probably be quite different. I would not be shocked to see Cleveland State make a bit of a run.

Maybe the biggest upset of the day was Montana State's semifinal win against Weber State in the Big Sky Tournament in Weber State's gym. The game was not even all that close and Weber State lost despite holding approximately a 130 rank advantage in the RPI. This upset gets a bit more interesting as you look at the season a bit deeper. This was Weber State's second conference loss and both were at home to Montana State. However, in the final game of the regular season Weber State won by 20 at Montana State.

College basketball is a hard sport to figure out.

Getting Ready for Selection Sunday

2009-03-08T22:20:00.000-07:00

As we head into the final week before Selection Sunday, let’s review what has been happening in every conference.

ACC

North Carolina locked up the one seed with their win over Duke. North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Clemson are all playing for seeding. I would guess Boston College gets in even if they lose to Virginia, but that should not happen. At 7-9 in conference, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Miami all have a few wins necessary to get in.

America East

Binghamton gets a bit of a break as 2 seed Vermont and 3 seed Boston both lost in the quarterfinals. That means Binghamton now needs to beat 6 seed UMBC at home to nab the automatic bid. It would be an impressive run for UMBC if they can nab the automatic bid again this year.

Atlantic 10

The biggest story here was Rhode Island’s inexcusable home loss in the season finale to UMass. Rhode Island still is the 2 seed behind Xavier despite being tied for second with Dayton and Temple. Dayton is in good shape as long as they avoid a bad loss. It would be fascinating to see what happens if Temple and Rhode Island meet in the championship game.

Atlantic Sun

East Tennessee State beat the 1 seed Jacksonville to get the automatic bid. East Tennessee State had the best RPI in the conference, but it’s at 115 so they are still looking at a likely 16 seed.

Big 10

The Big 10 is crazy as eight teams still have a shot at an at large (well, probably nine actually if you think Northwestern can make a bit of a run). The top five (Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State) are all fine. Penn State, Michigan, and Minnesota are floating on that bubble and none can afford a first round loss to the bottom three in the conference.

Big 12

So, the top three teams (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri) are definitely OK, but the 4 seed (Kansas State) probably needs a couple wins. Seeds 5, 6, and 7 (Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State) are probably ok with a first round win.

Big East

I am definitely happy that the Big East is letting all of their teams into the tournament this year. It is unfortunate that the tournament will last about 3 weeks though. Interestingly for such a good conference, there aren’t really bubble teams here. The top 7 are all OK. If there is a bubble team it’s Providence, but I think they need quite a bit of work. I do not think Cincinnati, Notre Dame, or Georgetown has a legitimate shot.

Big West

CSU Northridge grabbed the 1 seed in the tournament, with Long Beach State as the 2 seed and Pacific as the 3. The Big West Tournament is set up to provide byes to the semifinals to the top 2 seeds. That’s a shame for Pacific, which is probably about as strong as the top 2 seeds. Regardless, no team is going to pose much of a danger in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Sky

Weber State is the 1 seed and with a 15-1 conference record, they are the overwhelming favorites to earn the automatic bid. Weber State has a solid 20-8 record, but they lack quality wins. A competitive NCAA Tournament performance would be surprising.

Big South

Radford earned the automatic bid, which is a bit disappointing because it would have been fun to watch VMI’s distinctive up-and-down style or Liberty and Seth Curry in the NCAA Tournament. Radford did earn the 1 seed in the conference tournament so their bid was certainly earned. Conference POY Artsium Parakhouski is pretty fun and could be a challenge to an opponent that lacks a big frontline.

Colonial Athletic

Towson made an impressive run through Drexel and Northeastern but saw their upset bid against George Mason fall short. Instead the conference tournament championship game will feature the two best and most recognizable teams, VCU and George Mason. It would be great to see Eric Maynor get another shot in the NCAA Tournament because if he is on VCU can compete with anyone.

Conference USA

Memphis will never lose another conference game in the history of anything, so it is safe to say they will grab the automatic bid. (This is especially true because they do not need to leave the FedEx Forum.) Tulsa and UAB might have their names brought up by the committee for discussion, but I can’t see a way they actually grab an at large bid.

Horizon

The Horizon championship game will feature favorite Butler and Cleveland State. At the beginning of the year Cleveland State was a popular choice for the best team in the conference so it will be nice to see Butler get a challenge. That will also be a game the rest of the college basketball world will watch closely as bubble teams probably will wish Butler was playing someone like Detroit.

Ivy

As expected Cornell became the first team in 2009 to lock up a bid in the dance by clinching the Ivy League title. The Big Red are not particularly athletic but they could be a frustrating team to play in the first round.

MAAC

Siena, as expected, has cruised to the conference final at home. On the other side of the bracket, Niagara earned a tough win over a solid Rider team led by Ryan Thompson. Tyrone Lewis banked in a deep 3-pointer to tie the game at 71 late in regulation and Niagara finally prevailed in double overtime. That sets up the championship game that had to happen between Siena and Niagara. With the performance of bubble teams across the country Siena has a pretty good argument even with a loss, but with the game at home they should prevail.

Mid-Eastern

Todd Bozeman’s Morgan State team is the overwhelming favorite to win the MEAC’s automatic bid. At 19-11, the Golden Bears are the conference’s only team over .500. Their RPI is also about 90 spots better than anyone else in the conference (despite being in the mid-130s).

Mid-American

I joke a fair amount about the weakness of the SEC West, but it is nothing compared to the West Division of the MAC. Ohio, the worst team in the East, would be tied for first in the West. The conference standings are a mess, but Bowling Green ended up nabbing the 1 seed in the tournament. It is impossible to say who is the favorite in the tournament, although the 4 seed, Miami, boasts the conference’s best RPI.

Missouri Valley

The 1 seed, Northern Iowa, grabbed the automatic bid in an exciting overtime win over Illinois State (I bet CBS was really happy to have that game go into overtime and run over the start of the Duke-North Carolina game, by the way). Illinois State’s name will probably come up in discussion, even if that discussion does not last long. Creighton might have been able to overcome a semifinal loss to Illinois State, but losing by 83683349 points was a poor choice. It reminds me of last year when Illinois State looked to be in pretty good shape before getting completely manhandled by Drake in the final.

Mountain West

This is going to be my favorite conference tournament this year. The top 5 teams are all pretty good, and Wyoming and TCU are dangerous if you fail to take them seriously. BYU and Utah are in good shape and I imagine New Mexico would get an at large if they get to the final (if they even need to do that). The San Diego State-UNLV game will be huge. It is a shame that this tournament is held at UNLV as it loses a bit of its luster for me. San Diego State probably gets in with a run to the finals (considering it would include wins against UNLV on UNLV’s home floor and against Utah) and UNLV probably needs to win the whole thing. I might say they could get in with a run to the final, but because it is at their house I am going to hold them to higher standards. Still, a championship run would be very impressive.

Northeast

The conference’s two best teams, Robert Morris and Mount St. Mary’s, have advanced to the championship game. The best win between the two is Mount St. Mary’s win over American. It should be a competitive final, but I wouldn’t expect a competitive game in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio Valley

The 4 seed, Morehead State, made a surprise run to win the automatic bid beating Austin Peay in double overtime. Perhaps the best part of the game was the interview with Kenneth Faried afterwards when ESPN almost had to turn the camera off on him because he was so excited and did not want to stop talking.

Pac 10

Congratulations to Washington on an outstanding year. They have earned the 1 seed in what should be a pretty fun tournament. The top four seeds are in good shape, but this tournment will be critical for Arizona and USC. Arizona will face in-state rival Arizona State and USC will face Cal in the first round. Neither team should be able to survive a loss and one win might not do it.

Patriot League

The top seeds have advanced to the final as American will host Holy Cross. American has earned their home court advantage by going 14-1 in conference. With an RPI of almost 100 spots better than Holy Cross, American has to be considered the heavy favorite. However, Holy Cross did hand American their lone conference loss.

Sun Belt

South Alabama crashed the part of favorites as they beat 3 seed Troy. Other than that, the top 4 seeds are alive. Western Kentucky and Arkansas Little Rock are the favorites to advance to the title game. Western Kentucky swept the season series between the two by a combined 41 points.

SEC

With back-to-back losses, LSU has been brought back down to earth. They are still a tournament team, but they do not look like a big favorite to win the tournament title. Tennessee’s stunning home loss to Alabama did not keep them from earning the E1 seed in the tournament, and it will likely not put them in danger of missing the tournament, but it is further proof that no one in this conference is any good. LSU, Tennessee, and South Carolina are in the best shape in the conference, but I would not recommend losing in the first game for any of them. Florida still has a shot, but if they get past Arkansas they may face an elimination game against Auburn. It would not be a surprise to see some terrible team come out of nowhere and win this tournament and the automatic bid (like last year) because (like last year, but even worse) this conference is awful. If you can handle watching terrible basketball, this might be a fun conference tournament to watch.

Southland

I don’t really get why the Southland Conference waits until Selection Sunday to have their championship game, but I guess it does not typically matter too much for the committee because they are unlikely to have a team that is likely to make a difference anyway. Still, the favorite is Stephen F. Austin and if they win the automatic bid they will not be even close to the worst team in the tournament. They have a win over North Dakota State and were competitive in a loss to Texas A&M.

Southern

I love Davidson. My wife sometimes mocks me for having a bromance with Stephen Curry. I wish Bob McKillop had listened to my pleas dating back all the way to last summer (and even in the last possession of the Kansas game last year) to realize that Curry is not a point guard and putting him in that position reduces the importance of one of his greatest skills which is moving without the ball. As much as I would like to say otherwise, Davidson is not an NCAA tournament team this year. Now Bobby Cremins’ College of Charleston team is a big favorite to knock of Chattanooga and take the automatic bid. I am OK with this. This is not a bad team. They beat Davidson twice and they beat South Carolina. I would not be against picking them to be competitive in the NCAA Tournament.

SWAC

Alabama State is the favorite to become perhaps the worst team in the field this year. As always, the SWAC is terrible. It is pretty fun that a team with a 16-2 conference record can have 17 wins on the year though.

Summit

The biggest news early in the Summit Tournament was the loss of 2 seed Oral Roberts. It seems like things are moving towards a North Dakota State-Oakland final. Despite a lack of quality wins, North Dakota State is a pretty strong favorite as they suffered only two losses in conference season. Those two losses, however, were to semifinal opponent Southern Utah and Oakland.

WAC

Utah State was clearly the best team in the conference this year and they are the only team with a shot at an at large. With that said you probably would think they are the favorite to win the conference tournament. Unfortunately for the Aggies, their reward for winning the conference by 3 games is to have to play the conference tournament on the home floor of the 2 seed. Now Nevada is likely the favorite to take the automatic bid. If Utah State loses in the conference final to Nevada it will be interesting to see what happens. In that situation I would like to see the Aggies get an at large bid.

West Coast

I am typing this about midway through the second half of the Portland-St. Mary’s game. I think St. Mary’s is in with a win and they might have a shot even with a loss. Also, in one of the more underrated stories of the last week, the Gaels were able to schedule another non-conference game for this year against Eastern Washington. Frankly, I did not even realize this was legal, but Randy Bennett wanted to give the committee one more chance to see that Patty Mills is healthy.

Chad vs. Joe Lunardi - Bracketology March 6

2009-03-06T11:01:00.000-08:00

Welcome to another edition of Chad vs. Joe Lunardi, though you may as well call it Joe Lunardi vs. Logic because lately it seems nothing Lunardi does makes any sense. Let's start by taking a look at who's new in the bracket today:
Minnesota
Texas A&M
Maryland
Michigan
New Mexico

What this tells us is that all you have to do at this point as a bubble team is not lose. Minnesota and New Mexico each had nice wins this week. Texas A&M moves in for winning by 6 at Colorado and Michigan moves in by not playing. The exception is Maryland who moves into the bracket for losing to Wake Forest. Meanwhile, San Diego State is dropped out of the bracket for winning a game vs. Colorado State.

The Big 12, who had only 4 teams in a couple weeks ago, now has 6. But what makes this interesting is that if things go as expected, and if Lunardi is right, the #5, #6, and #7 (Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) teams in the conference will make the tournament while the #4 team (Kansas State) is left out. It's tough, even as a K-State fan, to make an argument for K-State based on their resume, but I do think it raises an interesting question; is the committee finding the best teams or the best resumes? While I can't argue for K-State based on resume, I can argue that, especially in the last 6 weeks, that K-State is as good of a team, if not better than UT, OSU and A&M. They've won games @UT, @A&M and have beat Missouri (which none of those 3 teams have done).

Of course K-State dropped completely off the bubble according to Lunardi after their loss at Oklahoma State, while Miami (FL) moves on to the bubble for losing at Georgia Tech.

Another team that I think is being undervalued by Lunardi is St. Mary's. Yes, they lost a couple of games with Patty Mills out with an injury, but they're now on a 6-game win streak, that includes a win over Utah State (who Lunardi has as an 11 seed).

What to do with....?

2009-03-03T15:44:00.001-08:00

This is probably just my poor perception acting up on me, but it seems as though there are more teams this year that I don’t know what to do with than previous years. These include teams that are locks for the tournament with questions regarding seeding and bubble teams that may or may not be in. With that said, what should we do with….

Arizona

What a streaky team Arizona has been. They are currently riding a three game losing streak. Prior to that streak they won seven straight. Prior to that winning streak they lost their previous three. I would say as of now they are a tournament team, but I have no confidence that they will end the season with wins against Cal and Stanford on their home floor. The Pac 10 is not all that strong this year; if they split those final two games should a 9-9 Pac 10 team really get in? These final games will be critical.

Boston College

No one had a more confusing set of games back-to-back on the schedule than Boston College. Of course it was the Eagles that won at North Carolina 85-78 and then turned around just three days later to lose by double digits at home to Harvard. On top of the North Carolina win they have also won against Duke and Florida State. Boston College has a relatively poor RPI (48) and sit at 8-6 in the ACC with games at North Carolina State and at home against Georgia Tech. If they win those two things will clarify some and they will be sitting pretty. As it stands they combine some wonderful wins with an above average conference record and poor computer numbers.

Georgetown

Georgetown is a team with four top 25 RPI wins. That’s a pretty remarkable number, but is it a product of being that good or is it a product of them having a ton of opportunities and cashing in on just a few (they are 4-6 in games against top 25 competition). With wins against St. John’s and DePaul to end the year, I think they would put themselves in reasonable position to get in with a couple wins in the Big East tournament, but right now 15-12 (6-10) does not seem like it should do it, even with the best SOS in the country.

LSU

Is LSU the proverbial “skinniest kid at fat camp” as they run away with the SEC? After a win over a mediocre Washington State team, the second best non-conference victory was over Troy. Still, 25-4 (13-1) looks pretty, especially from a conference that is usually good. However, the SEC West is so weak and the SEC in general is bad enough that it makes me wonder how good this team really is. Based on their resume, I want to put them as a 7 seed, or perhaps a 6 seed, but it is weird to consider the best team in the SEC receiving such a poor seed.

Oklahoma State

I figure what to do with Oklahoma State will become clearer after their final two regular season games. They host Kansas State tonight before traveling to Oklahoma. Still, this is a team that is 8-6 in a down Big 12 and is 0-3 against the Big 3 in the Big 12 (and the only additional game against truly elite competition was a 15-point loss to Michigan State. This is a team that probably deserves to get in at this point, but their performance probably does match their solid RPI.

Penn State

How many of you can name Penn State’s best non-conference win without cheating and looking it up? The answer is Mount St. Mary’s (RPI 121). They played two top 100 teams (Rhode Island and Temple) and lost them both. Their embarrassing non-conference schedule and performance has kept the RPI at a terrible number (65) that may be hard to overcome. Yet, they have a chance to finish 11-7 in a pretty competitive Big 10 including possibly four top 25 wins if they can beat Illinois. One thing working in Penn State’s favor is they have avoided the bad loss; Rhode Island is their worst RPI loss, and the Rams are actually re-entering the at large picture.

Providence

I am not going to run the numbers to see Providence’s conference SOS compared to other teams in the conference, but I figure it was not as difficult as many other members in the conference. If that hunch is correct, it makes me question their 10-7 conference record (which figures to go to 10-8 considering their final game is at Villanova). Rhode Island was their best non-conference win and their second best was Charlotte (182 RPI). Providence only has five top 100 RPI wins, which is pretty bad for a team in the Big East. The Friars seem like an NIT team to me, which is a bit tough for a team with an over .500 record in a very tough conference.

Siena

The RPI suggests they are a tournament team. The problem is the RPI is a bit hollow. In the non-conference they currently have three top 100 wins, but two are fringe 100 (Buffalo at 100 and St. Joseph’s at 98). I will not hold losses at Pittsburgh and at Kansas against them, but failing to beat Tennessee or Oklahoma State is disappointing. Their three most impressive wins are all at home and were against Boise State, Niagara, and Northern Iowa. None of those are likely to grab a ton of attention. Subjectively I think Siena is an NCAA Tournament quality team, but I am not sure their resume (even with the very good RPI of 29) puts them in.

St. Mary’s

This is probably the toughest team on the list and it is all because of the Patty Mills injury. You could make the argument that this team might be 26-1 without the injury. That would certainly be a tournament team, but we need to see Mills is back before we cut them any slack for their play without him. By the same token, their resume even before the Mills injury was questionable with only two top 100 wins (Providence and San Diego State). A St. Mary’s team without Mills is most definitely not a tournament team and a St. Mary’s team with Mills is probably a tournament team. The Gaels might have ran out of time to show Mills is back and healthy and that they are the team they were before the injury.

UAB

UAB really put together a pretty nice non-conference schedule. On their schedule included Arizona, Oklahoma, Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Butler. That’s the good news. The bad news is they managed a win in one of those games. In fact, that win against Arizona was one of two top 100 wins (UTEP being the other). The RPI is a manageable 41 and they are tied for second in a somewhat competitive league. I guess although I say I don’t know what to do with this team, my hunch is the thing to do with this team is wish them luck in the NIT.

Utah

I simply cannot get past a loss at home to Southwest Baptist. By RPI alone the Utes are a 3 seed, but how many 3 seeds lose to non-D-1 teams (not to mention at Idaho State)? Despite those poor losses, there is a reason their RPI is sitting in single digits. Not only do they lead a very good Mountain West Conference, but out of conference they hold some impressive wins, highlighted by Gonzaga and a complete demolishing of LSU. Utah is clearly a tournament team; half of their 22 wins have been against the RPI top 100. What kind of seed should they be looking at though? I really have no idea. Lunardi has them at 7, which seems pretty low to me.

Utah State

There is not a bad loss on the resume and there is a whole boatload of wins. The best win is over the previous team on this list, Utah. Because Utah is on this list, I have no idea how good that win actually is. After Utah their best RPI win is Wyoming and that is not wonderful. The RPI is a manageable 32 but there is not a bunch of meat on the resume. I am guessing they need to take the automatic bid, but even if they do that where should we seed them?

Chad vs. Joe Lunardi - Bracketology March 2

2009-03-02T08:28:00.000-08:00

There's not much new in Lunardi's latest bracket, so there isn't much for me to say that I didn't get to on Friday. But there are a few things in the new bracket that I find interesting.

Last week, Lunardi dropped Providence despite their win over Pitt. Since Friday, Joe has moved Providence back into the bracket with their win over Rutgers. So, according to Joe's logic:

beating Rutgers > beating Pitt

The other new entry in the bracket is Creighton. I'm not sure what to think about this; one one hand, it's tough to leave out a team that's won 10 straight, but on the other hand the best win during that streak was a win at home over George Mason. My take on Creighton is that they are right on the bubble right now, but a loss in the Valley tournament probably knocks them off the bubble, so they better count on securing the automatic bid.

Florida and Michigan are off the board for now (finally). Michigan finishes Big 10 play at Minnesota, which could be a "must-win" for both teams. Arizona is dangerously close to being left out after losing two games in Washington. The Wildcats host Cal and Stanford this week and probably need to win both.

BlogPoll Entry - March 2

2009-03-02T08:12:00.000-08:00

Here is this week's BlogPoll entry.

Rank	Team

1	Connecticut
2	North Carolina
3	Pittsburgh
4	Oklahoma
5	Memphis
6	Louisville
7	Duke
8	Michigan St.
9	Kansas
10	Marquette
11	Wake Forest
12	Florida St.
13	Louisiana St.
14	Washington
15	Gonzaga
16	Villanova
17	UCLA
18	Clemson
19	Purdue
20	Xavier
21	Missouri
22	Arizona St.
23	Butler
24	Syracuse
25	Tennessee

Chad vs. Joe Lunardi - Bracketology Feb 27

2009-02-27T12:32:00.001-08:00

It's Friday; that means Joe's posted a new bracket and it's time to point out what's wrong this week.

First, let me get my weekly rant against Texas out of the way. They've moved up to a 7 seed, based on their win over Oklahoma. Yeah, that would be a great win if Blake Griffin had played more than 8 minutes. The Sooners without Griffin are barely a tournament team (they followed up their loss at UT by getting blown out by Kansas). Saying OU isn't the same team without Griffin is like saying "Octo-Mom" wouldn't seem as crazy if she didn't have 47 kids. I think it will be really interesting to see how the committee judges Texas's win over OU. If they don't penalize teams like Davidson and St. Mary's for losing games when they are without their superstars, how can the committee give a team credit for beating a team that is playing short-handed? There is no way that Texas is a 7 seed while other Big 12 teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma St, and Kansas State) are on the bubble; there just isn't anything that justifies that much separation.

Now let's take a look at the bubble teams. Here are Joe's "last 4 in":
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan

So here's what I like about the changes since last week: the addition of a 5th Big 12 team. I think the conference will get 5 bids come the end of the year, but I'm not sure it will be OSU. The Cowboys are on a nice four-game winning streak right now, but their best win out of the bunch is against a Baylor team that quit playing a month ago. The other 3 wins are against the 3 worst teams in the conference (Texas Tech, Colorado and Iowa State). The final three games will decides the Cowboys' fate: Texas, Kansas State and at Oklahoma.

Florida has dropped to the bubble. I can't argue with this and I would expect Kentucky isn't far from joining them. Five bids is the maximum that the SEC will receive and it's starting to look like they may only deserve 3 or 4.

I'm also happy to see the Big 10 lose one bid and have two teams squarely on the bubble. What I don't understand is giving the nod to Penn State over Minnesota. The teams have split their two meetings, have almost identical Big 10 performances, and Minnesota clearly had the best non-conference performance, including a win over Louisville. In fact, Joe also list Penn State ahead of Michigan and once again their records in the Big 10 are nearly identical and Michigan has wins over UCLA and Duke. Meanwhile, Penn State doesn't have a non-conference win against a team in the RPI top 120.

On the flipside, Lunardi dropped Providence despite their win over Pitt and dropped Miami(FL) for winning two games last week, including a win over Boston College.

Chad vs. Joe Lunardi - Bracketology Feb 20

2009-02-20T14:02:00.000-08:00

I've been busy, so I haven't been able to do this as often as I'd like, but with Mr. Lunardi posting a new bracket today (with some ridiculous inclusions) I felt it was a good time to come out of retirement and put Lunardi in his place.

Let's start with Lunardi's last 4 in:
1. Penn State
2. UNLV
3. Michigan
4. Virginia Tech

Has Joe watched any basketball this week?!?! UNLV lost to Wyoming and Virginia Tech lost to Virginia. Look, I understand that bubble teams are going to lose some games, but these losses are inexcusable for teams hoping to earn a bid.

With the inclusion of Penn State and Michigan in the bracket, Joe now has 8 teams from the Big 10/11 in the tourney. If this actually happens, I think I'd rather drive Andy Kennedy's cab, than watch the NCAA tournament. Did you know that over the last five games Penn State has average 49.6 points per game? Not only are the Nittany Lions terrible at scoring points (which by the way is half the objective to a basketball game), but their non-conference performace was appalling. Their best win was over Georgia Tech (RPI 160) and they lost their only two games against RPI top 100 teams (Temple and Rhode Island, neither of whom will likely sniff an at-large bid). Michigan is probably in at this point, but I think they'll lose 3 of their final 4 games and may end up on the outside looking in.

The other inclusion that really jumped out to me was Texas. Now maybe Texas is barely in at this point, but there is no way they are a 9 seed. Texas had some success in the non-conference but has been mediocre at best in the Big 12. In fact, their record against other NCAA hopefuls in the Big 12 (KU, MU, KSU, NU, A&M, OU, OSU) is 2-5. For comparison's sake, against the same teams, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are also 2-5, while Kansas State and Nebraska are 3-4.

So who should be in that's not included. Providence and Cincinnati are probably the most obvious, but combined they only have one win vs the top 7 teams in the Big East (Providence vs. Syracuse). Miami (FL) are at 4-8 in the ACC, but have a relatively soft schedule from here on out. If they win out, which is VERY possible, they will likely be more deserving than Penn St or Michigan. And I think both Nebraska and Kansas State deserve a look. Both suffer from having weak non-conference performances, but both are above .500 in the conference and both have wins over Texas and Missouri. I should also point out that the Big 12 North is 12-10 versus the Big 12 South (despite the fact that the two worst teams in the conference are in the North).

Daily College Basketball Scores Recap - February 20

2009-02-20T04:58:00.001-08:00

ACC
Maryland 64 – Clemson 93
Miami FL 67 – Florida State 80
Georgia Tech 69 – Wake Forest 87
Virginia Tech 61 – Virginia 75
N.C. State 80 – North Carolina 89
Duke 76 – St. John’s 69

After the bad loss at Virginia, Clemson bounced back to beat Maryland. Maryland is almost certainly not a tournament team, but with home games coming up against North Carolina and Duke they will get their chance to make a statement. It is hard to see a way Florida State misses the tournament at this point and it is also hard to see a way Miami makes it. Wake Forest picked up their revenge against Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech’s loss to Virginia was pretty brutal for a team that cannot afford those types of losses. They may not win another game this year. North Carolina and Duke both picked up wins against poor teams, and for some reason Duke’s was out of conference.

Atlantic 10
Rhode Island 71 – Massachusetts 59
Fordham 45 – Temple 72
Xavier 60 – Charlotte 65

Don’t look now, but Xavier has now lost three of four. They might not yet be the lock most are saying they are. Dayton is now in first place by a half game in the league. Temple is in the at large picture, but with virtually no margin for error. I cannot see Rhode Island realistically getting in the at large picture, but I’ll keep an eye on them in case the bubble picture gets crazy the next couple weeks.

Big 10
Michigan State 54 – Purdue 72
Penn State 38 – Illinois 33
Ohio State 69 – Northwestern 72
Minnesota 62 – Michigan 74
Wisconsin 68 – Indiana 51

Michigan State has laid a lot of eggs for a top 10 team and this was certainly one of them. At least in this case they lost to a pretty good team. Penn State’s win at Illinois, although hideous, was huge. Considering their schedule looks pretty nice down the stretch, they can put themselves in wonderful position if they win at Ohio State on Tuesday. Speaking of Ohio State, their loss at Northwestern puts them squarely on the bubble. Their Illinois-Penn State homestand is huge. With Michigan’s win over Minnesota, those teams are trending towards each other, although Minnesota still has a clear advantage. A good finish to the year will be critical for each team. Wisconsin is in really good shape right now, and can reach near lock status if they can win at Michigan State this weekend.

Big 12
Texas 66 – Texas A&M 81
NC Central 49 – Kansas State 95
Iowa State 55 – Kansas 72
Colorado 41 – Nebraska 46
Oklahoma State 92 – Texas Tech 82

We can now welcome Texas to the bubble. Losing to A&M happens, but losing by that much should not. Texas A&M inches closer to the bubble with that win. Kansas State easily won in a random late season non-conference RPI killer. Kansas held a tenuous lead over a Missouri team that had the week off. Nebraska is just barely staying in the picture and a win at Kansas would do wonders for them. Oklahoma State keeps their bubble hopes alive, but they’re not in great shape either.

Big East
Pittsburgh 76 – Connecticut 68
Seton Hall 67 – Marquette 79
Notre Dame 68 – West Virginia 79
Georgetown 65 – South Florida 40
Providence 76 – Louisville 94
Rutgers 72 – Villanova 82

The picture at the top of the conference is now muddled as Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Marquette, and Louisville all have two losses. Villanova is a step back with four losses, but they hold a pretty strong grip on fifth place. West Virginia avoided a tough loss at home to Notre Dame with a good second half. Georgetown is still alive, but not by a ton. Upcoming home games against Marquette and Louisville are huge.

Conference USA
SMU 47 – Memphis 90
UAB 76 – Tulane 70

Memphis continues to roll in the conference and UAB stays alive with a tough win at Tulane.

Missouri Valley
Evansville 84 – Creighton 89
Wichita State 59 – Illinois State 74
Drake 47 – Northern Iowa 46

With these results, Creighton is clearly the most likely Valley team to earn an at large bid. Northern Iowa seems dead at this point, but I’ll keep an eye on them considering they have two more opportunities for good wins at Siena and at Illinois State. On top of the Northern Iowa game, Illinois State travels to Creighton and Niagara in BracketBuster. It would still take a perfect storm to get an at large bid in the Valley.

Mountain West
New Mexico 62 – BYU 73
Utah 89 – Colorado State 79
UNLV 68 – Wyoming 77

This was not a great week for the Mountain West. Utah is by far in the best shape. Next would probably be BYU. San Diego State is still alive, but had the week off. UNLV and New Mexico might have seen their at large hopes die.

Pac 10
California 78 – Oregon 60
Washington State 51 – USC 61
Washington 76 – UCLA 85

UCLA winning at home against Washington was probably expected, but this conference is really a mess. Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, and Cal all now have 4 conference losses. They all seem to be in good shape. USC got a much needed win against Washington State, but they are not yet on stable ground. Arizona, clearly 5th in the pecking order, had the week off.

SEC
Kentucky 64 – Vanderbilt 77
Alabama 74 – Florida 83
South Carolina 70 – Mississippi State 75
Tennessee 65 – Mississippi 81
LSU 72 – Arkansas 69

Kentucky cannot seem to decide whether they want to be alive or not. After this loss at Vanderbilt I fully expect them to knock off Tennessee this weekend. Speaking of Tennessee, at this point they almost need that win as much as Kentucky. Florida avoided a bad home loss but South Carolina could not avoid tripping up on the road. LSU continues to roll.

West Coast
Loyola Marymount 54 – Gonzaga 91
San Diego 61 – St. Mary’s 65

Gonzaga continues to avoid losses. Again, the story here is St. Mary’s. Going into a critical match-up this weekend against Utah State, the Gaels needed to avoid a loss to the Toreros and they were just barely able to do so. I think they are still just barely keeping their heads above water as they wait for Mills to get back.

Other
Siena 75 – Iona 60
Citadel 64 – Davidson 46
Butler 60 – Wisconsin Milwaukee 63
CSU Bakersfield 57 – Utah State 78

Siena avoided a loss and must continue to do so. Utah State did the same. Davidson had a terrible glimpse at life without Stephen Curry. I know the committee will recognize that he was out, but this loss was really bad and by a lot. They will be sweating a lot if they fail to take that automatic bid. Butler is creeping themselves back onto the bubble as well. If they can win at Davidson (particularly if Curry plays), the rough stretch can probably be forgiven and forgotten (well, I suppose not for seeding purposes).

Basketball BlogPoll Round Table

2009-02-19T12:30:00.001-08:00

The BlogPoll move was not the only change. In addition, A Sea of Blue will be running a Round Table in which bloggers are asked to voice their opinions on some questions.

1. Who really looks like the best team in college basketball this season?

I figure Pittsburgh will be the most popular choice here because people tend to have short memories. It's not that I think Pittsburgh is not really good; in fact, this might be the best team at Pitt in the Howland/Dixon days.

I am stubborn. At the beginning of the year I, like everyone else, was convinced that North Carolina was by far the best team in the country. The Tar Heels have not been as dominant perhaps as expected, but it is not unreasonable to say they are still the best team out there. According to Pomeroy's ratings, their AdjO is the second best in the country (interestingly behind only Pittsburgh), but their maligned defense is actually a really respectable 16th.

Subjectively, at the beginning of the year North Carolina appeared to be the most talented team in the country and that still seems true even without Marcus Ginyard's defense.

2. Is Blake Griffin the Player of the Year already, or can somebody catch him?

This is a tough question to answer. Clearly he should be given the POY already, but I would not put it past people to be stupid. Griffin has been completely ridiculous.

3. What currently ranked team is the biggest disappointment so far this year?

I pick on this team all the time, but I have to say Syracuse. Fans seemed to feel that even without Donte Greene that Syracuse would be back in the national spotlight once again. Things looked like it might be bad when Eric Devendorf punched a woman in the face and was suspended for the year. Luckily for Syracuse, Jim Boeheim thought that suspension was too much and that forcing Devendorf to miss a game against Memphis and then a big time shoot-out versus Coppin State would be enough. At that point Syracuse was 12-1 and looking in pretty good shape.

Syracuse continued to improve to 16-1 and were ranked in the top 10. Next Syracuse started playing good teams and the losses started piling up. At this point Syracuse is looking nothing like a top 25 team and they seem to be on their way to a fairly early exit next month. (Hey, at least they figure to get in!)

4. Predict the next team to beat Oklahoma.

I earlier expressed my love for Blake Griffin, but I think Oklahoma's record, ranking, and status as a one seed are all probably overrated. They are a very good team but they have been a bit lucky and have not faced a ton of great teams in the Big 12 (at least compared to the roads traveled by teams like North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut). Texas has been pretty horrible recently, but I'm still going to throw my hunch out there that they will drop that game this weekend against the Longhorns.