Diary of a Mad Cubs Fan

Unwatchable, that's what they are

2009-05-24T23:50:00.002-05:00

While it's still technically early, and while the 2007 Cubs dug themselves a much deeper early hole, the 2009 season seems to be slipping through our fingers before it could really even get going. The Cubs have followed a season-high five-game winning streak - which brought them to 21-14 and within spitting distance of first place - by losing seven in a row, including a six-game road trip on which they were swept by both St. Louis (somewhat understandable) and San Diego (somewhat unforgivable). Why? Well, it's pretty simple: this team has forgotten how to hit.

The streak has included the Cubs being outscored 28-10. Worse yet, half of those runs came in the first game of the streak, a 6-5 loss to Houston at Wrigley last Sunday. In the six games since, the Cubs have been outscored 22-5. 22 runs in 6 games really isn't that terrible. In fact, in the middle five games of the streak, the Cubs pitchers had an ERA of just 3.15 - but the Cubs only scored three runs in the entire five games in support. As a result, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells were all saddled with losses despite seven-inning quality starts during that stretch.

During the seven games, the Cubs have just 41 hits in 226 at-bats, a team batting average of .181. Take away their 11-hit "barrage" against Houston, and the six road losses featured just 30 hits in 187 at-bats, a team BA of .160. "But Flax," you might say, "batting average doesn't tell you the whole story!" True. The Cubs have walked 10 times in the six games, itself not a huge number - and when I tell you that six of those came in one game, suddenly things look even worse. Three of the six games featured no walks at all. Worse still, the Cubs aren't even putting the ball in play, striking out 56 times in the seven games. That's a strikeout every four at-bats, nearly one per inning.

Who's to blame? It's not any one player, but I'd say the bulk of the fault lies squarely with the table-setters, Soriano and Theriot. In the six road games, Derrek Lee is hitting .368 (7-for-19) with a .400 OBP. Do you know how many RBI he has? One. And it was a solo home run. The problem is that Soriano and Theriot, at the top of the order, have gone a combined 4-for-45 in the past six games (.089), and neither has walked once. Soriano has struck out nine times in 21 at-bats.

Still, nobody's hitting. In the same six games, here's how everyone else is doing: Fukudome .125 (though he's also taken four walks and a hit-by-pitch for a .333 OBP), Bradley .158, Soto .188, Fontenot .235, Miles .100, Scales .100 (though his OBP is .357 because of three walks and an HBP), Hoffpauir .143 (with seven strikeouts in 14 at-bats). In a six-game span, only one guy has more than four hits (Lee with seven), only two guys have reached base more than five times (Lee 8 and Fukudome 7), and only two guys (Scales and Fukudome) have taken more than one walk. Meanwhile, four guys have struck out at least five times (Soriano 9, Hoffpauir 7, Fukudome 6, Soto 5). It's ugly.

What now? The Cubs are severely limited as far as possible changes they can make to the team - I don't know that there's anyone like a Jim Edmonds last year who could possibly be brought in. People are talking about Jake Fox, who's tearing up the PCL - but it's still the PCL. Fox is apparently a guy who either homers or strikes out, and we've already got Soriano and Hoffpauir, plus Fox can't really play anywhere but first base with anything resembling acceptable defense. As far as outside help, who's there? And perhaps more to the point, who can be replaced? The outfield makes too much to be movable. The only real open space on the infield is second base, perhaps the shallowest position in the game from a hitting perspective. You're not going to fill that spot with anything better than what's already there. And the Cubs' options for trades are limited anyway given how thin the farm system is.

Of course, we should remember that a seven-game losing streak - while it sucks - is hardly cause to start talking about blowing up the team or anything. Lee's bat was cold for weeks without creating significant problems because the rest of the team was hitting better; it seems likely that a team full of professional hitters will be able to turn it around. Still, how much longer can we wait for them to do so? Even the 2007 Cubs never lost more than six in a row. We're not quite at the 2006 Cubs "7-22 in May" point... but even the 2006 Cubs topped out at eight straight losses. Should the Cubs somehow be swept at home by the Pirates - an unlikely occurrence, but at this point I'm ruling nothing out - that would be ten straight losses, the most since the 1997 Cubs lost fourteen straight to start the season (en route to a 68-94 finish). If that happens, I'm going to buy a Bears cap and devote the rest of my summer to miniature golf.

This may not be the year

2009-05-10T10:50:00.003-05:00

I know it's technically still early, and the Brewers beat up on the Cubs in the first two series last year only for the Cubs to flatten them down the stretch (except in games where they had already clinched), but my God - did you ever think you'd see a Brewers/Cubs game where the Cubs' bullpen was so much worse? Let's take a look at the bullpen so far:

Angel Guzman: Perversely, he's been the best of the bunch, with the lowest ERA (4.11) and best strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.67). He's also thrown the most innings (15.1), so at least the guy who's throwing the best is getting the most work. With all due respect, though, when Angel Guzman is your best reliever that probably isn't saying much about your pen.

Carlos Marmol: His injury probably hasn't helped, although he seems to be on the way up - in his last three appearances he hasn't walked anyone, and his ERA is somewhat artificially high thanks to a four-run, 0.1 IP appearance on April 29 in a game that the Cubs were already losing 4-0. Still, his ERA is 4.50, he's already blown two saves, and his K/BB ratio is just 1.42 after being around 2.75 the last two years. At least his numbers aren't too bad aside from his leap in walk rate, which is inflated thanks to four walks in that Arizona game. He'll probably be fine.

Kevin Gregg: Gregg actually seems to have settled down after a rough start, as he's up to five saves and has still blown just the one at Milwaukee on April 10. His ERA has receded to 4.40, and his K/BB in his last six appearances is 6/1. Still, for the year he's allowing 15 W+H/9. That number will probably improve significantly if his current form keeps up, at least.

Aaron Heilman: Here's where things start to get bad. At 15 IP, Heilman has been the second most active member of the bullpen, but he seems to be going in the wrong direction. In his first eleven appearances this year, Heilman allowed just one earned run; after a scoreless inning and a third on April 26, his ERA stood at 0.82. Today it's 5.40 after just five additional outings. Most of the damage was done on April 30, when he entered a tie game with the Marlins in the top of the tenth and proceeded to get charged with six runs, five earned, without recording a single out. However, he hasn't been much better since then; after two scoreless appearances against Florida and Houston, he's been abused by Milwaukee, allowing The Incredibly Annoying Ryan Braun's game-winning eighth-inning home run on Friday (in a spot that should have been Marmol's, except I guess Lou is trying not to use him every damn day like he did in the early-going last year) and walking three after coming on in relief of the incompetent Chad Fox (about whom more anon) on Saturday. At least, I guess, if you take away the Marlins game he hasn't been that bad - his ERA is only 2.40 if you pull out those five runs.

Neal Cotts: I know Cotts is a lefty, and those are hard to come by, but I don't know what it's going to take to get him run out of town. Luis Vizcaino didn't give up a single run as a Cub and was released; Cotts seems to be allergic to outs. In 14 appearances he's recorded just 20 outs while allowing 18 baserunners (9 hits, 8 walks and a hit batsman). He's actually only given up runs in four of his fourteen appearances, but because he has a tendency to pitch 0.1 innings, his ERA is 6.75. One of the reasons why he hasn't given up that many runs, though, is because he has a lot of outings that look like this:

April 10 @ MIL: brought on to face PH Craig Counsell. Hits him with a pitch; gets yanked. Marmol finishes the inning.

April 11 @ MIL: brought on to face Prince Fielder. Walks him; gets yanked. Heilman finishes the inning.

April 18 vs. STL: brought on to start the 7th. Walks the first two batters he faces; gets yanked. Marmol finishes the inning.

April 21 vs. CIN: brought on to start the 8th. Strikes out the first batter, then allows a single and a walk; gets yanked. Marmol finishes the inning.

It goes on. In fact, only four times this year has Cotts recorded as many as three outs; on the same number of occasions he hasn't recorded any. Don't the Cubs have anyone left-handed at Iowa or even Tennessee? I don't see how they could be any less effective.

David Patton: Speaking of less effective - it's David Patton, everyone! The Rule V draftee was a fun story making the team after never pitching above A ball, but I think it's time to admit that he looked good in the spring because he was pitching in late-inning situations against total nobodies. If I'm a manager, I think I have a few spring games where I throw a few relievers to start the game; if that's what you're basing the team on, you need to know which of these guys can actually face down real big-league hitters. I guess considering Patton spent the last two seasons as a middling high-A reliever, he hasn't been as bad as one might have feared, and his ERA is certainly made worse by his 1.2-inning, five-ER outing on April 25 when he gave up the grand slam to Pujols - but if you take that away it's still over 5.00. Aside from Cotts, he has the worst WHIP of anyone who's pitched more than four innings - really, across the board his stats are second only to Cotts' in their awfulness among the regular relievers. Is it really worth not having to offer him back to Colorado, or is there just no one else in the pipeline? (What about Jose Ascanio, who's been destroying the PCL so far? Albeit he's done so as a starter, and maybe he's being saved for that role.)

Jeff Samardzija: Samardzija is already back down at Iowa, but he wasn't given much of a chance - just five appearances and 3.1 IP. He didn't have a very good start, coming into a game vs. the Reds on April 23 and giving up four hits and two runs in one inning, but since then he'd gotten two Ks in mop-up duty on April 27, another two Ks on April 29 (although between those he gave up a three-run double, all the runs getting charged to Marmol), and gotten out of a bases-loaded spot with a short flyball on May 1. Then on May 5 against the Giants he turned in this string: HBP (to load the bases), two-run double, RBI single, popout, walk. Only one of the three runs was credited to him, but apparently Lou had seen enough and Samardzija was bounced back to Iowa. While he certainly wasn't super-effective in his brief time up, it's worth remembering that Samardzija gave up runs in two of his first three appearances last year, and then went the entire month of August without allowing another one.

Chad Fox: The real reason not to send Samardzija back down is that it resulted in Chad Fox being called up. I would rather Jake Fox come up. To pitch. Here's what Fox has done since returning to the big club:

May 7 @ HOU: enters the game in the bottom of the ninth with the Cubs up 8-2. Jason Michaels walks, Ivan Rodriguez triples (scoring Michaels), Jeff Keppinger grounds out (scoring Rodriguez), Darin Erstad triples (scoring on a sac fly after Kevin Gregg replaces Fox). Final line: 0.1 IP, 3 ER.

May 9 @ MIL: enters the game in the bottom of the eighth with the Cubs down 9-6. Ryan Braun walks, then Fox throws a wild pitch in the middle of walking Prince Fielder and gets yanked mid at-bat. (Aaron Heilman comes in and finishes walking Fielder, then eventually allows both Braun and Fielder to score. Baseball's bizarre scoring system charges Fox with one run but two earned runs.)

So in two appearances, Fox has two walks and half of a third (he's credited with three in the stats), two hits, and five earned runs... and one out (and that an RBI groundout). His ERA? 135.00. His WHIP? 15.00. He makes Chien-Ming Wang look like Bob Gibson. I've gotta think we've seen about all we're going to see of Chad Fox at this point. Whatever he was doing at Iowa - where he had a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, along with a 10/3 K/BB in 11.1 IP - he can't seem to replicate it at the major league level. If you can't even get outs in mop-up duty, you need to be out of here.

EDIT: I didn't actually get to see Saturday's game, and after writing this I found out that Fox got injured on the 2-0 wild pitch he threw and that's why he was "yanked" mid at-bat. Most likely he's thrown not just his last Cubs pitch but his last big-league pitch as well. With that in mind I feel kinda bad for the guy, but really it wasn't working out even if he'd stayed uninjured. Jose Ascanio is coming up instead, so hopefully that goes better.

So that's the bullpen so far. I guess the top end really isn't all that bad, but the bottom has just been awful. Last year the bullpen was a relative strength, but it's just looked bad way too often so far. Maybe this is just the result of a few really bad outings, but I don't know.

Add in all the injuries - especially with Ramirez set to miss at least a month and Zambrano on the 15-day DL - and the Cubs will be lucky to hold on until everyone gets healthy, if indeed everyone ever does get healthy at the same time. The worst part with all this is that 2009 was probably the best chance; this team is only getting older, and if guys can't stay healthy now, what chance do they stand in two years when Soto is basically the only guy under 30?

What's the problem?

2009-05-05T20:21:00.002-05:00

For some reason, people made a big deal about the Cubs' lineup today. Here it was:

1. Gathright, CF
2. Miles, SS
3. Fukudome, RF
4. Lee, 1B
5. Hoffpauir, LF
6. Fontenot, 3B
7. Scales, 2B
8. Hill, C

On ESPN 1000 they referred to this lineup as "the Iowa Cubs." I'm really not sure why. Aside from Scales - called up (probably just for a couple days) to fill Zambrano's roster spot - the seven remaining starting position players featured three regular starters (Fukudome, Lee and Fontenot), two guys who have been getting regular playing time in the absences of Bradley and Ramirez, and the backup catcher, Hill, in a day game after a night game. Only Gathright's presence in the leadoff spot really stands out as particularly weird.

If Lincecum weren't the opposing pitcher, would anyone have noticed? It sort of looked like the Cubs were punting the game, but you do have to consider that they are in the middle of 20 games in 20 days, and it makes sense to give the regulars some rest in a day game following a night game. The fact that it was Lincecum really doesn't change that much regarding the decision. If anything it does make it a slightly easier decision; since you already want to give your regulars a rest, there's no reason not to do it in a game that is already going to be pretty difficult to win.

I'm much more concerned with the fact that Samardzija appears to be Croatian for "Farnsworth" than with anything else that happened in this game.

Cubs 7, Cardinals 5 (11 innings)

2009-04-18T19:07:00.004-05:00

I know what I said about recapping series, but fuck it - it's not every day I get to sit and watch a Cubs game at all, let alone one won with a walk-off homer in extras.

I had been out and got in front of a TV in the top of the 7th just after Cotts walked two guys on eight pitches and was yanked for Marmol. (Jesus Christ, by the way. Are the Cubs ever going to have a lefty specialist who actually gets lefties out when called upon? Looking through their history, they basically haven't had a consistently good lefty reliever since Randy Myers, and since he was the closer that doesn't exactly count.) Marmol did a great job cleaning up the mess in the 7th, but somehow fell apart in the 8th against a significantly less dangerous part of the order, blowing the save, and requiring Kevin Gregg's services an inning early.

I have to say I liked what Lou did here, whether it was intentional or not. At this point, Marmol is clearly your best bullpen pitcher and Gregg - for all his early tribulations - is pretty clearly #2. Bill James' concept of the "bullpen ace" recommends using your best guy in whatever situation deems it necessary rather than saving him to "close" a game that may never get to that point if you don't put the best guy in now, and Lou worked that well, bringing in Marmol an inning earlier than he clearly would have liked to put out Cotts' fire, and then bringing in Gregg to put out Marmol's. I was more shocked that Gregg not only proceeded to go two innings (I guess his knee was okay because it was warmer today?), but to look pretty darn good doing it, striking out the first two men he faced in the 8th and mowing down the 2-3-4 in the top of the 9th.

Aside from the obvious, there was no more exciting play in the game than Soriano's assist to double Duncan off second to end the top of the 10th - he really whipped that thing out of his glove, although it wasn't exactly great baserunning on Duncan's part. But that one roused me as much as anything before the homer. And actually, the bullpen did a pretty decent job after Marmol - neither Gregg, nor Heilman, nor Guzman gave up a hit. I think we'd all like to see some more of that.

As for A-Ram... well, what can you say? He did it again.

The Cubs certainly haven't lacked for drama this season, have they? So far their seven wins include three in which they scored the winning run in their last at-bats (they also have two losses in which the opposing team did the same). Maybe this is part of a plan to make sure they don't fall apart in the playoffs again - play a game with playoff-like intensity every goddamn day, just to get acclimated to it. Come October, it'll be just like any other game! Or maybe everyone playing and watching will be dead of stress-induced heart attacks. Man, this team.

FU-KU-DO-ME

2009-04-18T13:06:00.003-05:00

At the risk of "talking during the no-hitter," as it were, remember how crazy we went for Kosuke Fukudome in the first months of the '08 season? Especially right at the start when he came flying out of the gate. Fukudome's stats through the first ten games of 2008:

.333/.447/.487, .934 OPS, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 8/7 BB/K

(And that's bearing in mind that in games 9 and 10 he went a combined o-for-8.)

Of course, we all know what happened next. Over the course of the year, Fukudome's numbers kept dropping; in the second half he went just .217/.314/.326, and in the final two months he hit under .200, getting so bad that he only started 9 games in September.

Coming into this season I said the following:

"[W]hat to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)"

Well, Fukudome may yet turn out to just be a first-half player. There aren't too many of those in the majors that I'm aware of - Alex Rodriguez, despite his reputation, has virtually identical career numbers before and after the break, and while Dave Winfield (once pejoratively described as "Mr. May" by George Steinbrenner) does have better career first half stats, they're nothing along the lines of Fukudome's 2008 dropoff. But the guy has only been in the majors for one year. While a quick check of my copy of BP '09 reveals that the Japanese season is not shorter than the US version - Fukudome had 578 PAs in 2006, compared to 590 with the Cubs last year - it's clearly less strenuous. Every game is indoors in nearly identical stadia, the degree of travel is significantly less (Japan quite obviously has nothing like flying to the West Coast and back within a week), and of course the level of competition isn't exactly identical.

My speculation has been that Fukudome's initial success had to do with him not being a known quantity - you see guys come up and rake all the time because pitchers don't necessarily know how to pitch them yet. Eventually the league caught up with Fukudome, and he had trouble making adjustments, instead overdramatizing his infamous bailout swing and turning into a corkscrew as a result. Come the offseason, it was up to Fukudome to make his own adjustments or risk becoming one of MLB's most expensive pine jockeys.

Well, it's early. But given that pitchers supposedly know how to pitch Fukudome now, maybe he's actually figured it out? Sure, he could just be a first-half guy, but on the other hand, maybe he'll be more adjusted to the rigors of MLB this year and be able to maintain his form. He probably won't do what he's doing in the first ten games all season - small sample sizes and all that. But given the bang with which he exploded onto the scene last year, would you believe his first ten games this year aren't just better, but significantly better?

.371/.477/.771, 1.249 OPS, 5 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 8/6 BB/K

Yeah, he won't do that all year. A .771 slugging percentage would be the seventh-greatest year of all time, trailing only three seasons of Bonds and three seasons of Ruth. More likely than not he won't even turn in a .300/.400/.500, and he probably isn't going to hit 48 home runs and knock in 144. Ten days of stats really doesn't tell you much of anything, all told. (Milton Bradley probably won't hit .056 all year, either.)

But with that said, I think - I hope - that his start to this year being even faster than his start to last year says something about the steps forward he's taken as a player. Because if he falls off the table again, Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa won't be there with surprising seasons to pick up the slack, and even if Bradley can stay healthy he'll probably only give you what we were hoping from Kosuke in '08 in the first place. This team needs a .300/.400/.450-like line from Kosuke, with 15-20 homers and maybe 70-80 driven in. Only time will tell if he truly has the ability or if he just really loves hitting in April.

Walk the (first base) line

2009-04-13T20:27:00.003-05:00

In today's home opener, which the Cubs won 4-0 - more on that after the series concludes - the Cubs drew nine walks from Rockies pitching (six from starter Ubaldo Jimenez) and also took a hit by pitch (Reed Johnson, natch). This made ten free passes for the Cubs, just hours after receiving twelve (ten walks and two HBPs) from the Brewers in an 8-5 win. All told, the Cubs reached base 17 times against the Brewers and 19 times against the Rockies while failing to reach double digits in hits in either game. Recording nine or more walks and nine or fewer hits in consecutive games has only been accomplished 41 times since 1954 by any team; the last and only other Cubs team in that span to do it was the 1974 edition, which won at the Mets 5-4 on 9/15/74 in a game in which they had eight hits but eleven walks (plus an HBP), then won at the Phillies 4-2 two days later, a game in which they walked nine times but had just four hits.

Only once before in Cubs (post-1954) history had they recorded consecutive games with at least 17 times on base but single-digit hits. In 1980, the Cubs visited the Giants in August. On August 1, they had 8 hits, 8 walks, and a hit batsman, and won 5-3. The next day they had 9 hits and 9 walks but lost 8-5, with Dick Tidrow blowing a 5-4 lead by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 7th. Of course, those Cubs lost 98 games, so let's not read too much into this stat either way.

One more walk by the Cubs in today's game would have admitted them to an even more exclusive club of just nine teams (since 1954) with consecutive games featuring double-digit bases on balls but single-digit hits. (Somewhat amazingly, of the nine teams, just two won both games while three lost both.) Last team to do it: the 2002 Phillies, who lost a game 5-3 despite 10 walks and 8 hits (0-for-7 with RISP will do that to you), then won the next day 10-8 with the same walk and hit totals. (This time they went 3-for-14 with RISP, but more crucially, Expos starter Bartolo Colon walked five men in one inning - one intentionally - including three in a row to start the inning and then later one with the bases loaded to give the Phillies three runs in the inning - on one hit.)

Series recap: Cubs at Brewers, April 10-12, 2009

2009-04-12T23:32:00.002-05:00

Just win series.

That is the goal. But did we need to get this nerve-wracking this early in the year? Look, I'm ultimately not worried about the Brewers - their lineup is basically the same as last year's but their pitching, as far as I can tell, is significantly worse. But I'd still rather not give games to them in April or any other time.

April 10: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
Saw: None (at work), but was on phone and IM with my dad (who was watching) for most of game and was following on Gamecast

Blech. I may have overreacted a little; at first I thought this loss was more brutal than any of last year's, ignoring all the times Wood gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a two-run lead. But it certainly wasn't pleasant. Milton Bradley's first Cub hit being a home run? Nice. Harden striking out ten Brewers in six innings and looking like his exhibition game at Yankee Stadium was, well, just that? Nicer. Koyie Hill homering to give the Cubs the lead in the sixth? Nicest. The Cubs bullpen? Least nice. Some of this I blame Lou for - it shouldn't have taken three pitchers to get out of the seventh and three more to get out of the eighth. Using two lefty specialists against the Brewers seemed particularly unnecessary - the Brewers hit righties so poorly they need Craig Counsell in there to break up their lineup. Really, you had to bring in Cotts just to face Craig Counsell? (And then he hits him and you've burned a pitcher.) Possibly not the best use of resources. And then Gregg adds a horrible ninth to his two appearances in the Astros series in which he got one shaky save and then was on the mound at the time of the ten-inning loss's completion. Good start to the closer tenure there.

April 11: Cubs 6, Brewers 5
Saw: Very little. We were in Culver's and the game was on TV in the background for Milwaukee's two runs in the seventh, but I missed everything else.

Not Z's best outing although it was a "quality start." I did manage to see the walk-happy bullpen show up again in the seventh - given how bad the Brewers' team OBP was last year, I don't know how you walk the bases loaded, even if it is Braun and Fielder and clearly you're terrified to pitch to them. And why even bring in Cotts when he's just going to walk a guy? Heilman sure looked good after giving up the go-ahead runs, though, huh? Reminds me of that game against the Rockies in 2007 when Howry gave up the go-ahead home run and then (after nearly being attacked Randy Myers-style) immediately settled down and worked quickly out of the inning. Soriano - well, what can you say? I just hope he keeps sockin' 'em out.

April 12: Cubs 8, Brewers 5
Saw: Bottom first, top second, bottom sixth through end of game

We went for dinner in the middle of the game, so I missed the ridiculous fourth inning, featuring five walks and a hit by pitch, and four runs scoring despite just one hit. Talk about being handed a game, although if not for Reed Johnson's heroics in the bottom of the fifth - which I didn't see live but which were replayed multiple times later in the game - it would have been handed right back. Truly, "P Fielder hit sacrifice fly to right," as the play-by-play on ESPN.com lists it, doesn't exactly do the encounter justice. Johnson may never be mistaken for an in-their-prime Ken Griffey Jr. or Andruw Jones, but he has made some epic catches for the Cubs since being signed just before the start of '08. Anyway, the Brewers issued 10 walks to the Cubs all told, six by Suppan, the starter, in just 3.2 innings. Just for good measure, they hit two more guys, for a total of twelve free passes. Total Cub hits in the game: five. Now that is called handing over a game. Man. But how about that team OBP for the Cubs!

Bad news: gee, Milton Bradley got injured. On the bright side, Kosuke is hitting .409, and if Bradley hadn't left the game, Johnson doesn't make that catch on Fielder. (I guess Fukudome might have, but hey. It worked out for now.) How about that middle of the Cubs order, huh? Lee hitting .080 and Bradley hitting .059? Heck of a start. (Although Lee did have 2 RBI with a sac fly and bases-loaded walk.)

As for Gregg... the less said, the better. He only looks worse in comparison with Marmol when Marmol blows away the side in the 8th and then Gregg seems like he's going to roll only to give up a two-out homer to make it 8-5, followed by a double and a walk before managing to strike out Fielder as the tying run. Frankly, I'm not sad to see Marmol remain in a setup role - people complain about the firmness of the closer's role when the team's best reliever - say, K-Rod in New York - is locked into "ninth inning with a lead" scenarios and only rarely pitches in any others, rather than being able to throw him into any late-game spot, including in the 7th or 8th, where a big out is needed. Keeping Marmol out of the designated closer spot allows him to do things like he did on Friday, coming into the game in the 7th with two on and one out (he's certainly the guy you want to see there because he gives up so few hits and even so few balls in play). You certainly wouldn't want to see Gregg in that spot, which is what would happen much more frequently were Marmol locked into the ninth. Really, while Gregg's ninth inning struggles have made the early part of the year a lot more heart-stopping than it really ought to be, it's better he's there - because the closer virtually always comes in with no one on base, it's an easier job and better suited for someone who isn't a shutdown reliever with a huge strikeout total and extremely low WHIP the way the Marmot is. It's understandable that Marmol wants the "closer" title - those guys make more money. (As it is, Gregg makes $4.2 million while Marmol makes $575,000.) But if Marmol keeps doing what he's doing, I foresee a nice payday for him down the line whether he gets the "closer" mantle or not. And if I were the Cubs, I'd tell him that (a) we still consider him the likeliest future closer but (b) honestly, we're using him right now in the way we feel gives him the most value. People love saves, but no one is going to miss a reliever who strikes out 114 guys in 87.1 innings.

Home opener! Bring on the Rockies.

Series recap: Cubs at Astros, April 6-8, 2009

2009-04-08T20:14:00.004-05:00

Here's something I'm going to try this year - a recap following each series. We'll see how this goes since I don't always get a chance to watch the games and really, what are you getting out of a recap by someone who didn't see the game that you're not getting from anywhere else? Anyway.

April 6: Cubs 4, Astros 2
Saw: 9th inning (plus heard 8th on WGN)

Didn't see much of this one; I was still at work when it started and didn't get to a TV until the ninth inning. The bottom of the inning was plenty nerve-wracking, but hey, I saw the win. The box score shows Zambrano pitched fairly well in earning his first-ever Opening Day win (although he actually pitched better last year in a no-decision, statistically), and you have to like Soriano starting the year with a home run considering the notoriously slow power start to his Cubs career (not hitting his first home run until May 1, 2007) and his awful start last year (hitting below .200 as late as May 9).

April 7: Astros 3, Cubs 2 (10)
Saw: Inning three through end of game

Wandy Rodriguez isn't exactly Sandy Koufax, but he pitches well at home - in 2008, his ERA there was just 2.99. The Cubs struggled against him in this one, managing just four hits (though they also drew three walks); Soriano struck out three times and was so happy to see LaTroy Hawkins in the 8th that he hit a moon shot off him that nearly left the stadium entirely, tying the game at 2. Dempster pitched all right, getting a quality start, but the bullpen was up and down. Guzman looked pretty good, but Heilman, Cotts and Gregg all had one issue or another. When the first two reached against Cotts in the 10th, it was pretty clearly over. Gregg, as I predicted, has underwhelmed so far. On the other hand, Wood underwhelmed to start last year (having a horrid outing on Opening Day), so we should probably reserve judgment for now.

April 8: Cubs 11, Astros 6
Saw: Bottom third through bottom fifth, and the last two outs

By the time I got home, it was already 8-2. The home run that made it 8-4 was a typical Lilly home run, the hanger at about 85 (if even) that I feel like I could hit out half the time. Russ Ortiz didn't throw a single pitch above the knees, I think, which of course meant he racked up a big run of strikeouts while the Astros started to chip at the 8-0 lead the Cubs had built off Brian Moehler. The Cubs finally picked up on "he's not actually throwing strikes" in the fifth, loading the bases on three walks and chasing Ortiz. Ramirez then doubled off the scoreboard to score two more (actually bouncing a tile out of the hand-operated scoreboard). Fontenot ended the inning, but with the lead back to 10-4, I decided to watch my DVR'ed Lost episode. I got back just in time to see the last couple outs. Not the most impressive game for Cubs pitching - five homers? I ask you - but hey, a win is a win, and 11 runs is pretty nice. Also, Fukudome was 4-for-5 with a walk and a home run. Is this his early season form again, or might he actually be back on the ball this year? Well, ask again in a couple months.

First opening-season series win since 2003 at the Mets (when the two winning pitchers were Wood and Prior). Heck, I'll take it.

Here Comes Your 2009th Nervous Breakdown

2009-04-05T23:01:00.002-05:00

Baseball season is finally back. The 2008 Cubs have faded in the rearview mirror, and it's time to see if the new iteration can improve on their result. Let's do a position-by-position look at the '09 Cubs compared to the 97-win squad of '08.

First Base
'08: Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.462, 20 HR, 90 RBI)
'09: Derrek Lee

Lee returns for his sixth season starting at first base for the Cubs, and with the exception of his lost 2006, they've all been at least pretty good. But 2005 looks more and more like a fluke year, and whether or not the wrist injury is responsible for his loss of power, the fact remains that Lee cannot be considered a 30-homer threat until/unless he actually does it again. It's not clear that Lee belongs in the 3-hole at this point of his career, but it seems like he's going to end up there. (Oddly, run simulators seem to suggest that it's beneficial not to put your best hitter in the third slot. So maybe this will work fine.)

Second Base
'08: Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 87 RBI)
'09: Mike Fontenot

That's right - last year the Cubs got more production from their second baseman than their first baseman. You could certainly argue that the Cubs sold high on DeRosa - he's even older than Lee and only just had his career year? - but it's hard to argue that they couldn't use numbers like that from the middle infield, and his all-purpose utility ways were certainly handy last year. With the potentially fragile Milton Bradley manning right field, maybe it wouldn't have been so bad to keep DeRosa. Fontenot hit in his PAs last year, putting up even higher slashes than DeRo did, and the fact that he's a lefty clearly helped, but a dropoff in production from this position seems inevitable.

Shortstop
'08: Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359, 73/58 BB/K, 22/13 SB/CS)
'09: Ryan Theriot

Riot's 2007 28/4 SB/CS ratio clearly made him think he could steal bases; last year took the wind out of those sails. If Theriot can maintain a .300 average and an OBP in the high .300s, that would probably be adequate, especially if he's asked to bat 8th instead of 2nd as he often was last year. Most fielding metrics find him below average at short, and he has less than no power, so he'd better get on base.

Third Base
'08: Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518, 27 HR, 111 RBI)
'09: Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez's 2008 was a little weird - on the one hand, he marked a career high in walks and OBP, but on the other, his slugging was its lowest in five full seasons with the Cubs. Assuming health, 25-30 homers and 100 RBI or more seem likely, especially hitting in the fifth spot, a prime RBI position if Lee and Bradley get on base like they're supposed to. Overall, Rami has been one of the most consistent Cubs of the last few years, and he'll need to maintain that production for this team to win.

Left Field
'08: Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532, 29 HR, 75 RBI)
'09: Alfonso Soriano

As always, the key to Soriano will be his health. Last year he smacked 29 homers despite playing in just 109 games, which equals 43 over a full season. Another broken hand seems unlikely (knock on wood), but we could certainly see more of the nagging injuries that limited him to 135 games in 2007, especially since he's only getting older (and really, who knows if he's only 33?). Anything less than 30 home runs out of Soriano this year is probably a bad sign.

Center Field
'08: Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568, 19 HR and 49 RBI in 298 PAs) and Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420, 6 HR and 50 RBI in 374 PAs)
'09: Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome

The relatively unexpected power surge that Edmonds delivered to this position isn't likely to repeat, since neither Johnson nor Fukudome is a high-power guy. For that matter, what to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)

Right Field
'08: Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 81/104 BB/K)
'09: Milton Bradley

Since Fukudome turned out not to be the world-beating left-handed right fielder the Cubs wanted after the '07 season, they went after another one in Bradley - and arguably took at least as big of a gamble. For all Fukudome's lack of production post-June, at least he could run out there every day and played above-average defense. Just what Bradley is going to turn in in those departments is really anyone's guess. He had a great season last year, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.436!) and OPS (.999), but he also played just 20 games in the field (and just 126 overall). In fact, just once in his career has he been an everyday outfielder and played more or less a full season - 2004, when his OPS was a mere .786. His career stats are much higher in the AL - not having to field probably helped. And ironically, Bradley is actually a switch-hitter who hits better against lefties while batting RH than against righties while batting LH. Eesh. Still, I would hope the Cubs at least did their research on the injury front, and Bradley tore up the spring, hitting .460/.526/.800 (!!!) in 50 at-bats. Yes, that's just spring, but it's a good start.

Bench
'08: Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, Felix Pie, Daryle Ward, Micah Hoffpauir
'09: Koyie Hill, Aaron Miles, Micah Hoffpauir, Joey Gathright

Not the most intimidating bench. Hoffpauir flashes power in spring and the minors, but he's been mired behind Derrek Lee at first and can't really play anywhere else (to paraphrase Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus, he plays the outfield corners in the sense that he's happy to run out there if you give him a glove), which means he's likely relegated to pinch-hit duties for most of the year, especially if Lee plays 155 games again. Miles is clearly a downgrade from DeRosa from a hitting standpoint, but he can also play anywhere; expect him to log a lot of games in right and left if Soriano and Bradley have years anywhere similar to last from an injury standpoint. A team with DeRosa hitting 21 homers could survive such outages; Miles' career high is 6, accomplished at Coors Field in 2004. On the bright side, he hit .317 last year for St. Louis and can switch-hit. Hill should be a similar non-factor on offense to Blanco, though he had a monster spring; the real loss in Hank White's departure is his veteran presence and defense, though Soto should have the latter covered anyway. As for Gathright, it's unclear why he was considered an upgrade over Felix Pie, who at least had the redeeming quality of still having potential. Gathright basically looks like a Juan Pierre clone on paper, although possibly even less talented, and we all remember how that turned out. I suppose if Pie wasn't going to play regularly anyway then it's probably a wash as to who sat on the bench between him and Gathright, but it struck me as an odd move even at the time.

Starting Pitching
'08: Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96), Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09), Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53), Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77)
'09: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, Sean Marshall

Zambrano lowered both his walks (which had been soaring) and strikeouts last year by largely pitching to contact, which unfortunately led to some ugly games, especially late in the year. It's also been speculated for some time that Zambrano has had lingering arm issues that would eventually blow up completely. He seems healthy this spring, but let's see how he looks in Houston. Dempster seems ripe for a regression, so let's just hope he doesn't fall back to the pack too much. Lilly probably will be what he will be - 15 wins, era around 4, bunch of home runs allowed - while Harden is something of an enigma even if he can stay healthy. Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis, but just how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.

Relief Pitching
'08: Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Jon Lieber, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Chad Gaudin, Scott Eyre
'09: Carlos Marmol, Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, David Patton, Luis Vizcaino

Marmol's mediocre spring leaves him stuck in the 8th-inning role for now, which apparently disappointed him, hopefully not so much that he'll struggle. Heilman had a great spring; so did Patton, strangely, seeing as he's never pitched above Class A before. The rest of the pen is just "who had the least awful spring" - Cotts, Vizcaino and Guzman all had ERAs over 5, but had the good fortune not to pitch quite as badly as Chad Gaudin (released after signing a $2 million contract to avoid arbitration), Kevin Hart or Jeff Samardzija (both of whom had options and so headed back to Iowa). I imagine the hook will be quick if the middle relief struggles, though - with a couple years at most left in the win-the-World-Series window, the Cubs can't afford to turn into the Mets. Relief pitching was mostly a strength last year; it needs to be again.

Closer
'08: Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 34 SV, 6 BS)
'09: Kevin Gregg

The sabermetric community frowned on the Gregg trade (he was acquired for Jose Ceda, a flamethrowing prospect who some said was a better pitcher than Gregg right now), but so far it seems all right - in the spring, Gregg made 11 appearances and didn't yield a single earned run. Of course, it's the spring - how often do the best players come up late in games? It's more likely that Gregg fattened his line on guys who will be in AA tomorrow if they aren't already. He'll probably be an adequate closer - 30 saves, 3.50 ERA - but this was probably a step down. Of course, if Gregg struggles, at least Marmol's there to step in.

All told, I'm definitely not without my worries for this year's team. Last year's team really seemed like it should have won it all - 97 regular season wins, career years from Dempster and DeRosa, a killer one-two punch at the end of games reminiscent of Rivera-to-Wetteland on the '96 Yankees. This year's team probably won't win 97 games, doesn't have that same one-two punch unless Gregg proves us all wrong, and looking at the roster I just don't see how anyone is likely to outperform last year's counterpart at their position significantly, unless it's Bradley. After all the talk of not repeating last year's embarrassing NLDS departure, did this team really even improve, in the final analysis?

It seems like the Cubs are primed to make the playoffs again. Milwaukee has taken two steps backwards, St. Louis hasn't really upgraded after overachieving last year (although a healthy Chris Carpenter would make a big difference for them), the Reds still seem too young to me, and Pittsburgh and Houston have been predicted by everyone to be awful. I still hate being the favorite, though. We've reached a point in the last decade where it's suddenly become a disappointment if the Cubs don't make the playoffs - or don't make the LCS or World Series - rather than a pleasant surprise when they do. And while no one wants to go through life rooting for a team that can only be counted on to make "pleasant surprise" playoff appearances, I'm not sure I'm a fan of being in the position of just coasting through the summer waiting for the playoffs to start. Which is ironic since I hate watching the Cubs lose, and any team that wins most of its games comfortably is clearly going to be a playoff lock.

I don't know. Much like last year, I'm looking forward to the season, but I'm also dreading it. Does that make sense?

Last of '98

2008-11-14T14:19:00.002-06:00

The 1998 Cubs were not the first team of my lifetime to make the playoffs. They were, however, the first to make it when I was really old enough to be fully engaged. And what a year that was. The Cubs were certainly not a great team, but there was Sammy Sosa battling McGwire for the right to Maris' record, and a dramatic wild card chase and playoff, and the wunderkind Kid K, Kerry Wood, tying the strikeout record and delivering one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time on May 6, his fifth career start.

Wood never really lived up to his promise. Oft-injured, he had just two full seasons in Chicago, 2002 and 2003, and since the latter - the best of his career - his record is 18-20, with 34 saves (all in 2008). In 2006, he was paid $12 million to make four starts, earning more than $600,000 per inning pitched; all told, Baseball-Reference lists him earning almost $49 million for a career in which he has won 77 games, more than $636,000 per victory.

But with that said, Wood was a good soldier. Perhaps feeling that he owed the Cubs for his well-paid and under-performed 2004-2006, he came back in 2007 on a cheap, one-year deal, reinventing himself as a reliever. He came back with another lower-paid, one-year deal in 2008 and took over as the team's closer, allowing both Ryan Dempster to move into the rotation as he wanted and Carlos Marmol to stay in the more favorable 8th-inning role. In the process, he became the first Cub to play on four playoff teams since Stan Hack.

Sadly, the Cubs have announced that Wood will not be back in 2009, or at least that he will almost certainly not be be back assuming that someone else will be willing to sign him to a multi-year deal. It seems that Wood is looking for a three- or four-year commitment as a closer, surely for at least 6-7 million dollars a year, and the Cubs are not in a position to offer it to him. (Chalk one up for the slumping economy.) After trading prize prospect Jose Ceda for Marlins closer Kevin Gregg, the message is clear - we're moving on.

The rational side of me understands this perfectly, of course. Even in 2008, Wood could be unreliable - he was out with a blister for most of July and could struggle with his command at times. Of course, the latter is true of most pitchers, and at his best Wood was typically unhittable. His best moment of the year came when he froze Prince Fielder with a breaking ball to get a game-ending strikeout on September 16, but even this came after giving up three hits and a run. To ask the Cubs to pay anything like 3/25 or 4/35 or whatever, when reasonably effective closers are a dime a dozen and few of them have anything resembling Wood's injury history, and with the team's ownership status still unresolved and the economy in shambles - yeah, that's probably too much.

But the fan in me is upset. In part because Wood is the last connection to the seminal Cubs team of my childhood, and the only current Cub besides Zambrano to break camp with the team in '03. In part because even in the age of free agency, I think we're still conditioned to believe that players who come up with our team are going to stay with them forever, especially if they're good; surely we wouldn't let them go. Seeing Sammy Sosa leave the Cubs - yes, he didn't come up with them, but he spent the vast, vast majority of his career with the Cubs - was tough, and that was in spite of what the situation with him had turned into and in spite of the fact that he was aging in dog years. Seeing Wood leave, though, is significantly worse; he doesn't leave on bad terms like Sosa, he isn't sneaking out to grab a ring in his twilight years like Grace, and he isn't making a shameless money grab in spite of inspiring no confidence like Prior. He's a very good pitcher who, while only in a relief role, is about as effective as he's ever been. He's just turned himself into a luxury the Cubs clearly don't feel they can afford, at least when you combine the money he can command with his injury history. It's reached the point where the Cubs feel that if they're going to spend that kind of money, they need a guy who is more likely to be on the field day in and day out than not. And having that be the reason, while perfectly understandable, is tough to absorb.

The other reason is that there is a pretty good chance that Wood will sign with an NL team and the Cubs will have to see him. Heck, he could sign in the division - Milwaukee and St. Louis could both use a closer. And the thought of Kerry Wood, the longest-tenured Cub at the close of the '08 season, jogging in from the bullpen in Cardinals red, makes me sick to my stomach. It's not just that I don't want Wood going to the Cardinals - I don't want to have to root against him. You thought seeing Jim Edmonds in blue was weird? Wood on the Cardinals or Brewers would be 100 times worse. For my own sanity, I really hope he goes to the AL.

Anything's possible if you just make shit up

2008-10-27T23:21:00.002-05:00

Say you're Phil Rogers and you need some grist for the rumor mill to fill out your "Whispers" column. Hey, how about saying something totally unsourced about the Jake Peavy "deal"?

The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn't look like a fit, but don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable.

Uh, what? Let's break down this nonsense.

Okay, the first sentence is true; the Cubs are on that list. Doesn't really mean much.

The second sentence starts with "This doesn't look like a fit." True enough. It seems doubtful that the Cubs have the prospects to beat out teams like Atlanta.

Then: "Don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package." Yup, that's fine. I mean, I want him to try.

Then we head to Crazy Town: "...that includes a swap of first baseman, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable."

Whaaaaaat? Phil, did you forget to take your non-crazy pills this morning? Think about this for a second. The Cubs don't have the prospects to put together a deal... so they're going to juice it up by asking the Padres to trade their untouchable first baseman for the Cubs' first baseman? I can just imagine how this conversation would go:

Kevin Towers: Hello?
Jim Hendry: Hey, Kevin, Jim Hendry here.
Towers: Hi, Jim, how are you?
Hendry: Oh, fine, thanks. Listen, since you guys have Jake Peavy on the market and he's willing to come to us, I wanted to pitch a trade to you.
Towers: Shoot.
Hendry: All right, Felix Pie, Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija. And we'll eat some of Samardzija's contract.
Towers: I don't know, Jim. I really need some guys who are major-league ready right now. Pie hasn't exactly done much for your team, and Hart and Samardzija haven't proven they can start in the bigs. I've got the Braves ready to offer me either Jair Jurrjens or Charlie Morton as a centerpiece of a deal.
Hendry: Well, I could send you Jason Marquis...
Towers: Ha ha! You old jokester.
Hendry: Um, yes. I'm a jokester. Anyway, I thought you might find that a little light, so I'm willing to sweeten the pot.
Towers: Go for it.
Hendry: What would you say to the triumphant return of Derrek Lee to San Diego?
Towers: Well, we've already got a first baseman, Jim, and he's younger and more powerful than Lee.
Hendry: Here's how you resolve that problem - you trade him to us in return! So, what do you say?
[faint clicking sound]
Hendry: Kevin?
[dial tone]

Does Phil Rogers honestly believe that the Padres would trade the Cubs arguably their pitcher and best hitter for a grab bag of prospects and Derrek Lee? Just for fun, here's how Adrian Gonzalez stacks up with Derrek Lee:

Lee, 2008: .291/.361/.462, 41 2B, 20 HR, 90 RBI; age for bulk of 2009 season: 33
Gonzalez, 2008: .279/.361/.510, 32 2B, 36 HR, 119 RBI; age for bulk of 2009 season: 27

So Gonzalez is six years younger than Lee, has more power despite playing in Petco (on the road he hit .308/.368/.578), and makes $3 million in 2009 to Lee's $13 million. Who wouldn't do that???

I don't believe for a second that Phil Rogers even had a source on this. I think he just made it up. Either that or it was some tossed-off thing that the source wasn't being serious about.

Randy Bush: So that about wraps up the interview, I guess, Phil. Anything else you wanted to ask me?
Phil Rogers: Yeah, any chance that Jake Peavy deal happens?
Bush: Heh, well, we'd all like it to, Phil. In fact, we'd love to be able to get Adrian Gonzalez from them too!
Rogers: Really? Wow. What about Derrek Lee?
Bush: I suppose we'd have to ship him out there, then.
Rogers: Wow, I can't wait to break this story!
Bush: Phil, I was clearly kidding.
Rogers: Can't hear you! On a deadline!

Pet Peavy

2008-10-18T14:32:00.002-05:00

Good news, everyone! Jake Peavy is probably going to be traded by the Padres any day now, and he's listed five teams he'd be willing to accept a trade to. Those five? The Braves, the Dodgers, the Cardinals, the Astros, and your Chicago Cubs.

Now the bad news: there is no way the Cubs can put together a package capable of getting Peavy.

Consider what the Cubs gave up for Rich Harden: essentially, it was the prospect pu-pu platter. Two guys in Murton and Patterson who had proven themselves as great AAA players but average major leaguers; an A-ball catcher (Josh Donaldson) who was highly rated but struggling (though he's improved substantially since joining the A's system); and a young pitcher (Sean Gallagher) whose ceiling is considered by most to be "third starter." And if Harden didn't have a history of injury, it doesn't seem likely that would have been enough to get the job done.

But that deal exposed the barrenness of the Cubs' farm system. What top prospects do we have to swing a deal for a Cy Young winner in his prime? The Padres are said to want a center fielder, and surely they'll want either a very good young starter or maybe two good-to-decent ones. From the Cubs' standpoint, the obvious name for the first part is Felix Pie, but does anyone really think that's getting the job done? He still seems to be considered a decent prospect, but he doesn't seem to have the "future star" tag on him that he used to. Is he really still thought of highly enough to be the centerpiece of such a deal?

And what pitchers do the Cubs have to give up? Once upon a time, that was the strength of the farm system, but many of the callups of the early 2000s flamed out. Now, who's left? Samardzija? Hart? Even if a package of Pie, Samardzija and Hart could get it done for Peavy in a vacuum, what are the odds that that's the best offer?

I hope Peavy goes to Atlanta, because I sure don't want to see him in the division, and fuck the Dodgers. But even though he'd be willing to waive his no-trade to come to the Cubs, I just don't think we've got the pieces necessary to do it.

AC 00 63 100

2008-10-05T15:06:00.002-05:00

There's not much more to say about the baseball itself. For the second year in a row, the opposing team got all the breaks, and the Cubs compounded their own misery by looking like a wreck on offense. The team that scored 855 runs in 161 games in the regular season scored six in three in the playoffs; the team that was second in the league in ERA allowed almost seven runs per.

During Game One, I was angry. During Game Two, which I didn't get to watching until it was already 5-0, I was pretty much just numb. During Game Three, which I attempted to watch from the beginning but gave up on watching consistently once the Cubs went behind, I was angry again. But I already feel numb to the whole thing the day after, although I was in Borders today and saw a raft of Cubs-related merchandise, including caps reading "1908-2008: Team of Destiny" and various magazine covers, and it just felt like a punch to the gut.

What upsets me isn't so much how badly they played, although that's certainly appalling. It's how quickly the whole thing was over, after 161 games that started on March 31, ran throughout the spring and summer and ended with the Cubs running away with a second straight Central Division title and 97 wins, the most since 1945. I threw myself into the team as much as I could this year, going to a road game for the first time in more than a decade, listening to day games on internet radio at work, keeping a printout of the schedule in my cubicle, on which I would write "W" and "L" as appropriate. I'm not going to claim I was the most rabid fan there was - I only went to three games, and just one of those was at Wrigley - but given my other commitments I think I did pretty well, trying to make time to watch the games whenever I could or at least following them online. And I loved this team. Every night someone else was the hero; Soto or DeRosa or Fukudome or Lee or Ramirez or Soriano or Edmonds or Johnson or Theriot or Marmol or Wood or Zambrano or Dempster or Harden or Lilly or even Marquis. Yeah, they had a few bad stretches, but what team doesn't? This was the team that was supposed to have the talent to go all the way.

And then it was just over. We barely even had time to soak up the playoff excitement of DeRosa's home run in Game One when Dempster self-destructed, and the Cubs never led in the series again, rarely even looking competitive. The best post-HR moment was scoring two runs and looking briefly competent against Takashi Saito in the bottom of the ninth in Game Two; of course, the score was already 10-1 when the "rally" started. The Cubs, best team in the National League and arguably the best team in baseball, were the first team to be officially eliminated from the playoffs, falling to the mighty 84-win Dodgers. Even Milwaukee, overmatched by the Phillies and unable to get a win out of CC Sabathia in their Game Two, was able to take a game before falling. The NL Central, which had a claim to having the three best teams in the NL as late as August, winds up with no teams in the NLCS.

Every Opening Day with the Cubs is like a first date with that year's team. And this year's first date, with Fukudome's tying home run in the bottom of the ninth, was pretty special, even if the Cubs didn't end up winning. As the season went on, every Cubs fan was drawn into the relationship as far as they could go. Ask just about any Cubs fan, certainly any Cubs fan under the age of 40, and they'd tell you this was the best team of their lifetime. This team was doing things no team in decades had done. It was the 100-year anniversary. This was the team that was going to go all the way. And then, before we knew it, we'd been dumped, sitting heartbroken in front of the television, wondering how six wonderful months could have evaporated into disaster so quickly. Just as with a particularly devastating breakup, it's enough to make you tell yourself that you're going to swear off baseball forever - all it does is break your heart, and you can't take it anymore.

But just as with that next person we can't stop thinking about, we're all going to be back eventually. It may not be next Opening Day, but every one of us is going to allow ourselves to love the Cubs again as long as they give us a reason to do so. The bulk of this team isn't going anywhere - aside from Jim Edmonds, not one of the key players from this year's team will be older than 34 next year. And consider this - aside from Mark DeRosa (and, you might possibly argue, Theriot), not one of the Cubs' position players had what you would call a career year. Five guys hit 20 home runs, but no one hit 30, even though at least four guys on the team probably have that capability. And while Dempster might have had his career year on the mound, just about everyone else on the pitching staff can be better. And who knows what Hendry might do to reshape the roster a bit in the offseason, maybe trying to bring in another frontline starter or a little relief help, or another outfield bat. This team will be back. It may not win 97 games again, but it's going to contend. And when you consider how long it's been since the Cubs even contended in three straight years, that in itself is a small victory.

It hurts now. I know it does. But you haven't heard the last of the Cubs just yet. And if we've waited decades to get to this point, and survived the agonies and indignities of 1969, and 1984, and 2003, always coming back eventually, always believing that one day things finally would go our way... well, there's a reason they call it "eternal optimism." We're Cubs fans. Giving up hope just isn't an option.

Wait till next year.

Bulletin from a parallel universe in which things are awesome.

2008-10-03T10:19:00.002-05:00

Rich Harden throws eight innings of two-hit ball, striking out 13 Dodgers, and the Cubs get to Hiroki Kuroda in the fifth, taking Game Three of the series by a 4-1 score. The next day, a short-rested Derek Lowe struggles with his command, and the Cubs win 6-3; Manny Ramirez hits two solo homers off Ted Lilly, but separates his shoulder diving for a ball in the sixth inning. The series returns to Chicago for Game Five and Chad Billingsley holds the Cubs again, but this time Ryan Dempster is almost equal to the task (it helps that the Dodgers are forced to play Juan Pierre in left), and the Cubs enter the bottom of the ninth trailing 1-0. Takashi Saito walks Derrek Lee to start the inning, and his first pitch to Aramis Ramirez is ripped deep into the night for a walk-off home run, sending the Cubs into the NLCS, where the Phillies await.

Game 2: There are no words

2008-10-02T23:14:00.004-05:00

I really don't even have the energy for this one. How do you give up 17 runs in two games to the Dodgers? (Well, seven walks in one game and four errors in the other, but even so.) The offensive part doesn't necessarily surprise me - though it sucks - but to have the pitching and defense be so lousy (though Zambrano was better than you'd think looking at the score)...

Honestly, yesterday I was really angry. Today I'm just numb. It's like it's happening to someone else's team.

Game 1: Dempster Diving

2008-10-01T20:48:00.002-05:00

Honestly, is there any way that could have gone worse? I suppose Aramis could have blown out his knee rounding first on his double, but that's about it. Here, in no particular order, are the five worst things about this game, and then I'm not talking about it anymore.

1. There goes the home field advantage.
We heard that the Dodgers were better than they had been when the Cubs last played them, but consoled ourselves with two facts: (1) the Cubs are still better and (2) the Dodgers were lousy on the road all year, so having the home field should be enough of an edge. Well, now what? The Cubs have to win at least one in Los Angeles to have any hope. It's not like that's an impossible task, but so much for not having to do it.

2. Can we trust any of the starting pitchers?
Whether Dempster was anxious or what, it doesn't matter - he blew it big-time, utterly failing to vindicate Piniella's faith in him. Let's say the series does come back to a fifth game at Wrigley - are you feeling that confident seeing Dempster stride out there again?

3. In Carlos we trust.
Yeah, Mr. 7.28 ERA Since August 1 now has to win Game Two to save the Cubs' season. (At the very least, the Cubs have to win, but Zambrano simply can't pitch poorly.)

4. Hi there, 2007 NLDS offense.
Only twice in the game did the Cubs put more than one runner on base in an inning. Once was DeRosa's two-run homer in the second, and the other was when DeRosa and Theriot had consecutive two-out singles in the fourth. Everyone else who got on - and the Cubs had a man on base in every single inning - just died there, most annoyingly Ramirez's leadoff double in the sixth.

5. Derek Lowe.
I hate you, I hate your stupid face, and I hate that the umpires call your stupid pitches at the ankles a foot off the plate for strikes.

My dad wanted to spin this by saying that "you have to overcome some adversity to break a curse," pointing to the '04 Red Sox. Of course, the Red Sox won their first-round series 3-0. Also, the '05 White Sox overcame adversity to the tune of losing one game the entire postseason. Whatever. It comes down to this: the Cubs win tomorrow, or the Cubs lose this series. Here we go.

The 11 Best Games of 2008

2008-09-30T22:10:00.004-05:00

I did this last year, and okay, it wasn't exactly a harbinger of good things for the playoffs. But with 11 games left to win, here are the 11 best Cubs games of the 2008 regular season, this time with video! Let's hope that by the time October's over, they're games #12-22 of the 2008 season.

11. "Atta boy, Jimmy!" (June 12)
Hosting the Braves and Tim Hudson, the Cubs struggled to get much offense going all day behind Carlos Zambrano. Trailing 2-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, Jim Edmonds - who was still fairly new as a Cub and trying to win the fans over - smacked a 1-0 offering from Blaine Boyer out to left to tie the game, eliciting this call from Len Kasper, who (on WGN's 60th anniversary) had clearly been saving it all day. Perhaps even more entertaining was the Cubs winning the game in the 11th when they loaded the bases and Reed Johnson took a ball off his shoe to drive in the winning run.

10. Revenge is a dish best served cold (May 11)
Hosting the Diamondbacks for the first time since being eliminated from the playoffs in three straight games the previous October, the Cubs had already won the series with a Sunday game against Randy Johnson looming. But due to the conditions (cold, wet, and with a 24-mph breeze blowing in), both teams scrapped their intended starters, treating the fans to Sean Gallagher against Edgar Gonzalez. Gonzalez got the better of the head-to-head, but the Cubs rallied - down 4-2 in the seventh, they scored two to tie it when Reed Johnson smacked a no-doubt line drive into the teeth of the wind in left center, his first Cubs home run. In the eighth, Daryle Ward blasted a pinch-hit two-run double to right center, and the Cubs swept the D-Backs out of Wrigley with a 6-4 win, an early statement series for the season (at a time when people still thought the D-Backs were good).

9. Ward pinches the Fish (August 15)
Daryle Ward might not have had the kind of 2008 we all hoped for after his stellar 2007, but he could still come through in a big spot. Aside from the above mentioned double to beat Arizona, he also had a dramatic go-ahead three-run homer on the same night that Michael Phelps won his seventh gold in Beijing. (So you can see why Ward got overshadowed.) With the Cubs down 5-3 against Marlins closer Kevin Gregg, Mark DeRosa drew a walk and Reed Johnson singled, leading to Ward's heroics. The Cubs held on to win 6-5 (not without a scare as Wood walked one, hit another and threw a wild pitch), their fifth in a row at the time.

8. "Beating" Sabathia (July 28)
The Brewers had been adrift in the Central, falling as far back as 8.5 games on June 15 - the exact same deficit the Cubs had come back from a year earlier. And the Brewers, like the Cubs, came all the way back by the end of July, tying the division on July 26 and entering a pivotal four-game series in Milwaukee just a game back, having already taken four of six from the Cubs at Wrigley earlier in the year. The Cubs weren't about to yield anything, even against Milwaukee's newly-acquired ace CC Sabathia, who was already 4-0 as a Brewer with three complete games and a shutout. Ted Lilly was pitching well until giving up consecutive homers to J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun in the sixth, followed by a run-scoring double to Corey Hart that put the Cubs behind 3-2. Sabathia couldn't hold the lead, however, giving up two singles, a double steal and a walk that loaded the bases with one out. Derrek Lee grounded into what looked like an inning-ending double play, but Reed Johnson made a good takeout slide into second and Rickie Weeks fired wide of first, scoring two runs and putting the Cubs back ahead 4-3. Bob Howry blew the lead in the bottom of the inning with a solo home run to Russell Branyan, but the Cubs won it 6-4 in the ninth, Lee atoning for his near-DP with a double to score the go-ahead run. It was the only game the Brewers would lose behind Sabathia (though he ended without a decision) until the Cubs beat him outright on September 16.

7. Really beating Sabathia (September 16)
Speaking of which, here's that game. By this point the Cubs had an eight-game lead in the division, and they entered their final series with Milwaukee at Wrigley with a magic number of six. They lowered it to four after finally handing Sabathia an L to call his own, though it was close. The Cubs led 3-0 after three thanks to a couple of RBI doubles from Lee and Ramirez, but the Brewers closed it to 3-2 in the top of the sixth when Ryan Dempster allowed a mammoth home run to the mammoth Prince Fielder. Sabathia was still around in the seventh when Alfonso Soriano added a much-needed insurance run, taking the big fella deep to left to make it 4-2. Fielder struck again to lead off the eighth, but the Cubs added another run in the bottom of the inning with a Henry Blanco pinch-hit RBI single. This was again needed to survive a set of Kerry Wood adventures in the ninth, which finally ended the game at 5-4 when he struck Fielder out looking on a gutsy breaking pitch.

6. Rallying past the Phillies (August 28)
Opening a big home series against one of the NL contenders, the Cubs trailed 4-1 going into the bottom of the eighth after doing little against Cole Hamels. Although the Phillies' bullpen was strong for much of the year, seeing anyone but Hamels suited the Cubs as they scored five runs in the eighth. Mike Fontenot led off the inning with a pinch-hit homer, and a double, single and walk loaded the bases for Aramis Ramirez, who put the Cubs up 6-4 with a single swing. Wood had to face the big bats in the ninth, but allowed just a single to Jimmy Rollins, ending the game with a Ryan Howard pop-up.

5. Rallying past the Brewers (September 18)
For sheer degree of difficulty, it's tough to top this game (although the Cubs managed it; see #3). The Cubs trailed 6-2 heading into the bottom of the ninth, and proceeded to make two quick outs; at this point, the likelihood of them winning the game was so low that Baseball-Reference actually rounds it down to zero. But Ramirez doubled on the first pitch he saw, Edmonds singled (scoring Ramirez to make it 6-3), and DeRosa singled, bringing up Geovany Soto, who also took a liking to the first pitch he saw and murdered it to left center, enough of a no-doubter that, as you can see on the video, Ryan Braun didn't even move. This sent the game to extras; Marmol and Wood mowed the Brewers down in the 10th and 11th, but in the 12th Wood put himself in a second and third, no out jam before working out of it. In the bottom of the 12th, Derrek Lee came up with two outs and runners at second and third; he'd been 0-for-5, but picked a good time for his first hit, lacing a single up the middle to win the game and drop the Cubs' magic number to two.

4. Mr. Clutch (June 20)
Aramis Ramirez has taken heat over the years for not hustling all the time, but he was pretty good at coming through when it mattered in 2008, and isn't that what's really important? Perhaps the best example was the opening game of interleague against the White Sox; the Cubs trailed 3-1 after doing little off John Danks in six innings, but Octavio Dotel was greeted with consecutive homers from Lee and Ramirez to open the seventh (winning some lucky WGN listener $7,000, no less), tying the game up. There it stayed until the bottom of the ninth, when Ramirez, leading off against Scott Linebrink, hit the second pitch to pretty much dead center. The Cubs had six walk-off wins in 2008, but this was the only one on a home run.

3. Climbing the Rockies Mountain (May 30)
Ted Lilly won 17 games for the Cubs in 2008, but he was also capable of having really bad outings. This was one such; Lilly lasted just three innings, allowing seven runs (though only four were earned). Jon Lieber replaced him and allowed two more; by the time the Cubs came to bat in the fifth, they were already down 9-1 and their chance of winning the game was down to about 1%. It was bad enough that Lou Piniella actually pulled Lee and Soto, putting Blanco and Micah Hoffpauir in their places. This turned out to be a pretty good move. Hoffpauir smacked a double to start the sixth, which was followed by home runs from Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds, cutting the deficit to 9-4. Still, the Cubs only had a 3% chance of winning entering the seventh inning, which they turned around in a hurry. With one out, Mike Fontenot singled, followed by a Blanco home run to cut the lead to 9-6. After Hoffpauir and Fukudome singled, Edmonds hit a deep double to center, scoring both runners and cutting it to 9-8. The next hitter was Mark DeRosa, who lifted a full-count pitch into the breeze, giving it enough to carry to the seats in left center and sending the remaining fans (of which there were surprisingly many, but then why leave the ballpark early on a late spring afternoon?) into a frenzy. The Cubs still had to hold the slim 10-9 lead, but Marmol struck out the side in the eighth, and Wood got a convenient lineout double play in the ninth before Todd Helton ended it with a flyout to right.

2. The Clinch (September 20)
Only once in the division play era had the Cubs clinched things at home (2003), and the time was right to add a second, especially against the rival Cardinals and on national TV. The Cubs jumped ahead with three runs in the second, as Soriano hit a single that skipped past Brian Barton in left, clearing the bases and allowing Soriano to go all the way to third. The Cubs tacked on two more in the fourth on a Mark DeRosa RBI double and, amusingly, a suicide squeeze from Ted Lilly (he ended up being safe on the play when the Cardinals attempted to get DeRosa at home and failed). Lilly's squeeze, somewhat fittingly, ended up being the difference, as he scuffled in the sixth, giving up a predictable home run to Troy Glaus to cut the lead to 5-4. That was as close as the Cardinals would get, however, as Kerry Wood closed the door once more in the ninth - also fittingly, as he's the only Cub to appear on every playoff team of the wild card era.

1. Zambra-No (September 14)
It was an up-and-down season for Carlos Zambrano, as it often is. But he found time to throw the first Cubs no-hitter since Milt Pappas in 1972, oddly enough against the Astros at Miller Park, the game having been moved due to Hurricane Ike (or, if you believe Astros fans, due to an anti-Houston conspiracy cooked up by secret Cubs fan Bud Selig). Zambrano needed 110 pitches, striking out 10 (including the last batter of the game) and walking just one (he put a second man on with a hit by pitch). Alfonso Soriano led off the game with a home run, and it was all the offense the Cubs needed; the Astros only sent two balls out of the infield, both caught by Mark DeRosa in right. It was a great moment, and yet another historic punctuation to a season we all hope will end with even bigger things. (And yes, Zambrano followed this up with the worst post-no-hitter start since Bob Forsch in 1978. Let's not dwell on that.)

The playoffs start tomorrow. Recaps/commentary will be here, hopefully for a lot longer than they were last year. Go Cubs go.

Dodge this.

2008-09-28T21:11:00.005-05:00

There won't be a New York team in the playoffs, and I'm feelin' fine. But now that we know the Cubs' opponent, it's time to focus on the Dodgers and see just how these teams match up.

Season Series: Cubs 5, Dodgers 2

The Cubs took all three games at Wrigley Field in late May before splitting four at Chavez Ravine a week later. Just about every game in the series was pretty close, though; the Cubs won the first two games at Wrigley by identical 3-1 scores, then squeezed out a 2-1 win in the finale only by scraping out a run in the ninth and then another in the tenth. In LA, the Cubs blew a 4-0 lead in the first game but got a run in the ninth to win 5-4; the Dodgers then got a complete-game shutout from Hiroki Kuroda, followed by a 7-3 win when Carlos Zambrano fell apart in the bottom of the seventh. The Cubs salvaged a split, winning the fourth game by that familiar 3-1 score behind, somewhat surprisingly, Jason Marquis, who allowed just three hits in 6.1 innings.

Reason not to take the season series results very seriously: Manny Ramirez

The Cubs played all their games against a Dodgers team that was still sending Juan Pierre into left every day (and, for that matter, that was still going with Chin-Lung Hu and his .181 batting average at short). Going into today, Manny Ramirez was putting up this line as a Dodger: .396/.489/.743, with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games. A little better than Juan Pierre and his .327 OBP and .329 slugging.

Position-by-Position

To be honest, it's not entirely clear to me who the starters are at some positions for LA. For example, Rafael Furcal started the year as the starter at short. Then I think he was injured, and most recently the starter had been Angel Berroa - until Furcal started the last three games. Also, Jeff Kent has been on and off at second base. And frankly, how one evaluates the Dodgers changes a lot depending on whether Kent and Furcal are starting, as opposed to Blake DeWitt and Berroa. So I'll have to play the comps a bit by ear, here, based on what they're likely to throw out. Could I wait until Torre announces his roster? Maybe, but I don't feel like it.

Catcher: Geovany Soto vs. Russell Martin

Martin is a very good hitter for a catcher - .279/.384/.395 this year - and he's pretty strong defensively, winning the Gold Glove last year (I know, I know). He's also caught the staff with the lowest ERA in the NL, for whatever that's worth. But Soto has been a more valuable hitter - .285/.364/.504 - and his staff isn't too shabby itself, plus Soto's caught-stealing percentage is slightly higher.
Edge: Cubs, though not by as much as you might think.

First Base: Derrek Lee vs. James Loney

Loney's had an okay year, but hasn't flashed a lot of power for a first baseman - his OPS+ is actually just below average, at 99. His .341 OBP is pretty mediocre as well. Lee, for all the knocks on him, still managed to get to 20 home runs (although most were at home) and had a .363 OBP, which isn't too bad. For all the noise about his double plays, he ended up grounding into 26, but Loney grounded into 25 himself. Add in the fact that Lee is a great defensive first baseman while Loney is average, and the fact that Loney is in his second full season while Lee has a World Series ring, and that should give the Cubs the edge.
Edge: Cubs.

Second Base: Mark DeRosa vs. Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt

This depends a lot both on DeRosa's health - he's been nursing a strained calf for a few days - and on which player is actually starting for the Dodgers. Kent came off the DL last Saturday, but has only appeared in three games since then and only twice as a second baseman. I'm guessing Kent gets the nod if he's healthy, as DeWitt is just a rookie and hasn't hit all that well (although he's having a strong September), but Kent's OBP for the year is only .327. He murdered the Cubs in his five games against them, though, going 8-for-19 with two home runs. As for DeRosa, assuming he's fully healthy, he's having a career year, setting new career marks in home runs, RBI, runs scored, walks, and OBP and slugging. All this and he's been 11 runs above average on defense, despite being shuttled around between four different positions and appearing in right field more often than at second base in September. For this he's been worth 7.8 WARP1 and is top 30 in the NL in VORP; Kent has been a below average defender and contributed just 2.3 wins to the Dodger cause.
Edge: Cubs if DeRosa is healthy, although even if they're forced to start Mike Fontenot at second, they might still have the edge (Fontenot was worth more wins that either Kent or DeWitt this year).

Shortstop: Ryan Theriot vs. Rafael Furcal/Angel Berroa

It seems like it's Furcal's job now that he's back, and why not - his OBP in 36 games is .439, compared to Berroa's .305 in 83 games. Furcal has also been the superior defender historically in spite of his occasional tendency to air-mail throws to first. As for Theriot, he's never going to be mistaken for Alex Rodriguez at the plate, what with his one home run this year, but he's been pretty good at finding a way on base in big spots, whether by slapping a single or drawing a walk, and he does walk more than he strikes out, which is certainly a nice feature. All told he's been worth about five wins to the Cubs; all the guys who have played short for the Dodgers combined add up to just slightly more, although a full season of Furcal, presumably, would have been worth more than that (I would project, but his slashes are so high in his short period of time that it's going to be inflated past what he likely would actually have contributed). At any rate, a fully healthy Furcal - if that's what he is - is probably a better player than Theriot.
Edge: Dodgers if Furcal is 100%, Cubs if he's not (and especially if he isn't playing at all).

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Blake

Blake has hit 10 home runs since coming over from Cleveland, but his OBP is .313. Ramirez, meanwhile, might be the best hitter on the Cubs. The two are probably about a wash on defense, so you have to give the edge to Ramirez's offense.
Edge: Cubs.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano vs. Manny Ramirez

Soriano, somewhat quietly, is really the engine that drives the Cubs. When he's out, you can tell; just look at the Cubs' record without him this year. He added 5.8 wins in just 108 games played; over a full season he might have added nearly 9, a pretty robust number. But Ramirez has added a mind-boggling 5.3 wins to the Dodgers in 53 games since coming over! He gives that lineup an entirely new dimension, and he's also got a ton of playoff experience.
Edge: Dodgers.

Center Field: Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson vs. Matt Kemp

I was surprised to see Baseball Prospectus credit Kemp with 6.1 WARP1, since his OBP is only .340 and he's listed as an average fielder. I was even more surprised to then find out that combined, Edmonds and Johnson have only added 6.6 wins to the Cubs. Consider, however, that Kemp has played in almost every game for the Dodgers, while Edmonds and Johnson combined have about 25 fewer at-bats than Kemp does alone. Given the Cubs' ability to platoon, and the postseason experience Edmonds brings, I think you have to favor the Cubs here.
Edge: Cubs.

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome vs. Andre Ethier

There's no guarantee Fukudome will even be starting, of course; if his bat stays silent, Piniella might try to play DeRosa out there (though that would depend on his injury) or even Hoffpauir (although that's a lot of defense to give up in a playoff environment). Either way, you probably have to give the offensive edge to LA; Ethier is hitting .302/.373/.507 this year, but .447/.547/.671 in September, possibly thanks to hitting in front of Ramirez, and seeing better pitches as a result, for most of the month. The Cubs have the advantage on defense, but for the moment you have to give the Dodgers the nod thanks to Ethier's hot bat.
Edge: Dodgers.

Starting Pitching: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly vs. Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Greg Maddux

Dempster finished third in the NL in VORP, the highest among this group; next was Billingsley at seventh. Lowe was tenth, and while you have to go all the way to 23rd to hit the next Cub, Zambrano, Lilly and Harden are bunched up at 23, 24 and 28, just ahead of Kuroda at 30 and well ahead of Maddux at #80 (most of that accomplished with the Padres, of course). But Maddux might not even start; Joe Torre has suggested Lowe could come back on short rest in Game Four if the situation called for it. At any rate, this will probably be a series for people who love pitching. Certainly it was in the regular season, with both teams scoring less than three runs per game.

The opening game will match Dempster and Lowe. Dempster, famously, was 14-3 at Wrigley this year, while Lowe has been touchable on the road, his BAA rising from .206 at Chavez Ravine all the way to .292. He doesn't walk many, though, and he's a sinker-ball pitcher, both factors that will give the Cubs trouble. Lowe started twice against the Cubs this year, both times matching up with Zambrano; he got a no-decision after seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 2-1 loss on May 28, but won the 7-3 Dodgers win in LA on June 7, though he allowed three runs in seven innings in that one. Dempster was also 1-0 with a no-decision against LA, though the Cubs won both games; his start at Wrigley was seven innings of one-run ball.

Game Two as scheduled will pit Zambrano against Billingsley. Like Lowe, Billingsley has pitched worse on the road - not surprising for pitchers in a pitcher's park - but not by much, and he's only got a couple bad starts all year. Zambrano, of course, is Zambrano; really, who has any idea what to expect out of him at this point? He might go eight innings and give up three hits, or he might get knocked out in the fourth. His biggest problem is always walks; if he can restrict those and keep himself under emotional control, he could be great. Let's not forget that he turned in a strong start on the road last year in the playoffs after sucking out loud for much of the final two months. The good news is, the Dodgers don't take a ton of walks. The bad news is they pounded 13 hits off him in his June 7 start in LA.

Game Three should match up Harden and Kuroda in Los Angeles, where Kuroda blanked the Cubs on June 6. Like Lowe, Kuroda does not issue a lot of walks (in fact, the Dodgers were second in walks allowed, which partially explains their #1 ERA); he's also pitched better at home, though like Billingsley, the split isn't all that wide. Harden is one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball; in seven of his 12 starts for the Cubs, he's allowed no more than two hits. Two! The only problems, of course, are (1) in three of those starts, he's only gone five innings and (2) he's also got four starts with at least four walks. The piece de resistance was on September 18, when he threw 115 pitches in five innings against the Brewers, walking six and striking out seven. (I believe he also hit the bull mascot twice.) His ERA with the Cubs is 1.77, but that's only so useful if he's forcing you to call the bullpen after five innings. Hopefully he can turn in seven of similar quality in what will likely be yet another pitchers' duel. Harden has been slightly worse on the road this year, but since he's a flyball pitcher when the ball actually gets in play, starting him away from Wrigley Field probably isn't a bad thing.

Ted Lilly may be the hottest pitcher the Cubs have; he's gone 16-5 since a 1-4 start, and lowered his ERA to 4.09 after it was over 5.00 as late as June 10. He's pitched particularly well on the road of late, with his last two road starts both seeing him take no-hitters into the seventh inning (and both times at Miller Park). For the season, he's 10-4, 3.77 on the road next to 7-5, 4.50 at home, so throwing him out there on the road in a pitcher's park can't be a bad thing. Of course, he might not make a start in this series depending on how things go. As for who he would face, it's either Lowe on short rest or Maddux, who has been mediocre as a Dodger.

Edge: It's pretty even, which isn't surprising when you have the top two teams in ERA going at it. But because of the home field advantage and the way the pitching lines up with that, I'd probably give a very slight edge to the Cubs, pretty much no more edge than the home field allows for. Obviously a lot of this depends on which Zambrano shows up. A top-of-his-game Zambrano, following a good outing by Dempster, gives the Cubs a good chance of being up 2-0 when heading out west. If Zambrano drops a bomb, that pretty well changes the complexion of the series.

Middle Relief: Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija and the rest vs. Joe Beimel, Jonathan Broxton, Cory Wade, Chan Ho Park and the rest

The Dodgers have more middle relievers in which I'd be willing to have confidence; the Cubs are pretty much down to two, and frankly I'm not sure I trust Samardzija all that far right now. The Cubs catch a break in that Hong-Chih Kuo, possibly the Dodgers' best reliever, won't be available, but they've got several guys with sub-3.00 ERAs. I don't even know who Piniella wants to take besides the above two since everyone else has been so lousy; I expect Howry will show up on the roster, and at least one of Marshall and Cotts. Kevin Hart has also pitched fairly well since being called back up on September 1. I've gotta think Marmol is the best of this bunch, and in fact he's fifth in baseball in WXRL, a reliever's win expectation over replacement (lineup-adjusted), adding more than five wins to the Cubs, a lot for a guy who pitches under 100 innings. But you go through six Dodgers on the list before you get to another Cub who isn't Wood, and that's Marshall at #125 in baseball. On volume, the Dodgers are better, and more equipped to handle the early departure of a starter.
Edge: Dodgers.

Closer: Kerry Wood vs. Takashi Saito

Saito was out for two months and has only had one save chance since coming back, but I'm assuming he'll be the closer in the playoffs. Edge to Wood mostly on the freshness count; Saito's stats are comparable to Wood's, with a better ERA, but the Cubs have also handed him a blown save and a loss this year in the two times he came on in either a save situation or a tie.
Slight edge: Cubs.

Put it all together: The Cubs are going to be the favorites, and they should be, but this isn't going to be a cakewalk. In the playoffs, you need good starting pitching, timely hitting, and a bit of luck. Last year the Cubs had none of that. If they want to avoid another, even more serious disappointment, things have to begin with the starters and roll from there; that's how the Red Sox and White Sox broke their droughts (the latter in particular). This should be obvious, of course, but that's what I'll be looking forward to seeing starting Wednesday. This team is the best team in the NL and it should be representing the league in the World Series if it plays up to its potential. Whether or not that happens... that's why they play the games.

Change of plans

2008-09-26T22:01:00.003-05:00

The Cubs officially announced their playoff rotation today. Fortunately, this year the Cubs have four starters and won't have to do anything like pull Zambrano a little early in Game One to save him for Game Four. Of course, they also won't have to do that this year because Zambrano isn't starting Game One. Your planned rotation:

Game One (Wednesday): Ryan Dempster
Game Two (Thursday): Carlos Zambrano
Game Three (Saturday): Rich Harden
Game Four (Sunday): Ted Lilly
Game Five (Tuesday): Ryan Dempster

I think this works out pretty well. For one thing, it's obvious that Dempster has been the Cubs' best pitcher all season, so why not reward him? He's also got a 14-3 home record, lest we forget, so having him possibly start two games, both at home, seems like it would work out pretty well. Better still, you're starting your two ground-ball pitchers at home and your two fly-ball pitchers on the road, and "the road" is looking more and more like it's going to be pitcher's park Chavez Ravine.

I think it's time to revisit the playoff roster debate:

Starters: Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Marquis, Marshall, Howry, Samardzija, Cotts

I'm not totally sure about Marquis. Remember last year during the season-ending series in Cincinnati, when he was put in as a reliever, got shelled, and then afterwards said that he really only feels comfortable when he's starting? He's been good down the stretch this year, in defiance of his usual form, but he's right - his value is as a fifth starter who can usually give you six innings and maybe only allow three or four runs. But he often allows all those runs in one inning. I guess he could be the long-relief backup plan should anything happen with Zambrano or Harden (or, for that matter, the occasionally homer-happy Lilly), but man - if we see Marquis trotting in to save the Cubs' season in Game Three or Four, I don't think I'm going to be feeling very good. As for the rest of them, I don't really like the last three, but where else do you go? You need that second lefty in Cotts, and Howry and Samardzija, while they haven't necessarily been great, have probably been the two most effective relievers outside of the Wood-Marmol team in the last month. The only other possibility is Kevin Hart; Gaudin pitched himself out of consideration last night, and Wells and Lieber are hurt.

Eleven pitchers allows for 14 position players, which is nice. I think the debate here is about the same as the last time I talked about it:

Catchers (2): Soto, Blanco
Infielders (6): Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno
Outfielders (4): Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome
Bench (2): Ward, Hoffpauir

I've been on board with taking Pie over Hoffpauir, but I was thinking about this just now and changed my mind for a couple reasons, and Hoffpauir's recent 5-for-5, two-homer night doesn't even have much to do with it.

Reason #1: Carrying three center fielders is crazy.
I mean, if you're not going to carry three catchers, there's no reason to carry three center fielders, and you've already got the Edmonds/Johnson team platooning at that spot. And let's not forget that in an absolute pinch you can switch DeRo into right (since you are carrying three guys who can play second base) and move Fukudome into center. Pie may be a better center field defender than any of them, but is it by so much that you have to have him on the team?

Reason #2: Bringing Pie over Hoffpauir basically says, "We're valuing late-inning defense and pinch-running over pinch-hitting."
If you bring Pie, he's probably your absolute last pinch-hit choice off the bench, unless you're trying to create a lefty-righty matchup. But Hoffpauir also creates that matchup, and he's a much better shot to get a hit, it seems to me. Pie can pinch-run, but so could Cedeno, Fontenot, or Marquis if it came to that. And as for late-inning center-field defense, you can replace Edmonds with Johnson if you're so worried. Johnson himself probably doesn't even need replacing.

So yeah, Ward and Hoffpauir are basically the same guy - slow-footed lefties who can play first and, if you're really desperate, an outfield corner, but who in the playoffs will only really be used for pinch-hitting anyway. And if someone gets injured, you are allowed to replace that player for the series with someone not on the 25-man (this rule only started in 2007, apparently), so it's not like you absolutely have to plan for all contingencies at the start of the series.

So... the Dodgers, probably? Unless we beat the Brewers the next two days, which isn't impossible. (Even then, the Mets would have to win their next two, and I don't know about that.) The Dodgers don't have lefty power, which is nice, but I do worry a little about their pitching, as I've said.

Strike a match

2008-09-23T22:12:00.003-05:00

The playoffs are locked up. Home field advantage is locked up. Now, there's only two questions: can the Cubs really get to the World Series, and who are they going to have to beat to do it?

First things first: of course the Cubs can get to the World Series. They've been the best team in the NL all year and have the record to prove it. If they don't have the best top-to-bottom pitching, they're darn close, and they have the highest-scoring offense. Anything can happen in short playoff series, but it's inarguable that the Cubs can win the pennant.

But will they? To answer that, we have to look at the other NL playoff teams (or potential playoff teams) and ask ourselves how they match up with the Cubs, and what the Cubs have to do to win.

Possible Opponent #1: Mets
At the moment, this looks like the most likely option for the Division Series. After beating the Cubs tonight, the Mets have a one-game lead in the wild card over the Brewers with five games to play. Of course, the Mets have two more against the Cubs (and won't get to start Johan Santana in those games) while the Brewers are playing Pittsburgh, their personal bitches for 2008. So check back on Thursday night, because it's entirely possible the Mets won't be the wild card leaders anymore.

Pros for the Cubs: For a team that's scored 781 runs, the Mets seem to have a tendency the last couple seasons to lock up in the clutch. The Cubs shut them down at Wrigley earlier this year, although that was so long ago at this point that it's virtually meaningless. The Mets' pitching is also highly suspect once you get beyond Johan Santana, especially in the bullpen, which lacks a real closer with Billy Wagner injured and is even thinner beyond that.

Cons for the Cubs: Even ahead of the Phillies, the Mets might be the scariest offensive team in the playoffs (if they make it), with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and a suddenly alive Carlos Delgado, among others. There's also the little matter of Johan Santana, who could pitch twice in a five-game series, leaving little margin for error if the Cubs struggle to hit him as they did tonight after the first three innings.

Possible Opponent #2: Phillies
It should probably be noted that the Mets are only 1.5 back of the Phillies in the NL East right now, meaning it's not yet impossible that the Cubs could see Philadelphia in the first round. Still, an NLCS matchup seems more likely if anything.

Pros for the Cubs: Last year the Phillies were the second-hottest team in baseball going into the playoffs, and they got skunked in three straight. Of course, the team doing the skunking was the hottest team in baseball. But the Phillies are still not blessed with a ton of playoff experience - really, the bulk of their major players have just that one series to point to. The Cubs have a good deal more than that. The Phillies' starting pitching is also a bit thin beyond their top two, and while they have a lot of power, they're not really great at getting on base, often more important in the playoffs than the ability to hit home runs.

Cons for the Cubs: The Phillies went 4-3 against the Cubs this year but it could easily have been 7-0, as the Cubs only won their one game in Philly thanks to a phantom home run call and needed late comebacks against the Phillies' bullpen just to split the four-game set at Wrigley in August. Hamels and Myers are good pitchers, but the Cubs have made them look like Koufax and Drysdale, with Hamels allowing one run and six hits in fourteen innings vs. the Cubs this year and Myers is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts. That could easily present problems in a short series if the Cubs can't do a better job of solving them. The Phillies' power and speed are also both liable to be problems. This is probably the one team in the NL I absolutely don't want to see, certainly not in the Division Series.

Possible Opponent #3: Dodgers
If the wild card is won by the Brewers, the Cubs won't play the wild card team; instead, they'll play the division winner with the worst record, which is going to be the team out of the West. Right now that's LA - they should lead by three games by the end of the night with just five to play, an awfully difficult lead to blow, especially when they don't play second-place Arizona.

Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs went 5-2 against the Dodgers this year, sweeping them at Wrigley Field. And aside from one bad Carlos Zambrano start, they mostly kept the Dodgers from scoring, allowing less than two runs per game in the other six contests. The Dodgers have also been pretty bad on the road this year, and of course the Cubs would have home-field.

Cons for the Cubs: The Cubs also didn't hit Dodger pitching all that well, scoring a total of 19 runs in the seven games. They were shut out by Hiroki Kuroda at Chavez Ravine, and twice needed to get into the bullpen to win, including the May 28 game at Wrigley where it was 1-0 Dodgers in the bottom of the ninth before the Cubs managed to tie the game on a sac fly and win in ten innings. Also, we can't count on the Dodgers to be a lousy offensive team anymore, given the improvement in their numbers since the addition of Manny Ramirez.

Possible Opponent #4: Diamondbacks
The chances of this look pretty slim right now, thank God.

Pros for the Cubs: The Diamondbacks stink. They're 79-78 right now!

Cons for the Cubs: Anybody who tells you they want to face Webb, Haren and Johnson to start a five-game set is crazy. It could be over before it even begins, just like last year. And just for good measure, give them Cub killer Adam Dunn. You don't know how glad I am this isn't happening.

Possible Opponent #5: Brewers
This could only happen in the NLCS, and they need to catch the Mets for the wild card to do it. But they're only a game out, hardly insurmountable with five to play.

Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs know the Brewers very well. They also seem to own them at Miller Park, making the possible 3-4-5 middle section of the NLCS not as daunting as it might be in another city. In addition, the Brewers have pretty much stunk on ice in the last month, and Sabathia seems to be wearing down, something that won't be helped by all the pitching he'll be doing on three days' rest in the next week.

Cons for the Cubs: For some reason, the Brewers seem to play almost as well at Wrigley as the Cubs do at Miller. Also, the Brewers might be able to get on a roll if they win a first-round series; not that the Cubs wouldn't be on a roll also, but with Fielder and Braun, that could certainly be dangerous. You wouldn't want to end up in a slugfest with that team. Still, I'd rather face the Brewers than the Phillies here, given the option.

So, who would you rather face? I'll take whatever I can get, of course, but I'm inclined to prefer Mets/Brewers, although that combo is really unlikely to happen since at this point it looks like an either/or as to which one gets in. So let's say Dodgers/Brewers. The Dodgers are better than they were, but they aren't great.

Magic number: zero

2008-09-21T00:44:00.002-05:00

Today I got a new cable box for my HDTV, which unfortunately I didn't get working until the fourth inning of the game, but I still got to see the winning runs (gotta love that the eventual winning run was a well-executed suicide squeeze by Lilly) and, of course, Marmol and Wood closing the door in the eighth and ninth. (The Glaus home run was depressing and utterly predictable - like with most of the home runs Lilly gives up, you could see it coming a mile away - but fortunately it ended up not mattering.)

With the division wrapped up, there are now a few things to concentrate on. In order:

1) Wrapping up the best record in the league (I believe the magic number for this is 3)
2) Being able to set the rotation for the playoffs
3) Determining the playoff roster

#1, while not set in stone, seems like all but a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have eight games left, meaning a simple 3-5 record in that span would be enough to clinch the league's best record, and that's if the Phillies don't lose another game, which they almost certainly will.

#2 has some bearing on #1, of course, but I'm not sure that the rotation is going to need much setting. Looking at the current lineup of probables, here's how the next eight games would be started: Dempster, Marquis, Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Harden. The last game happens on Sunday, September 28, and the first game of the NLDS is three days, on Wednesday, October 1. If you assume Zambrano starts that one, that means he'll have had fully six days of rest before it, and I'm going to guess he won't be throwing a ton of pitches against the Mets this Wednesday. Assuming Dempster starts Game Two, he'll have had five days of rest, and if Lilly is your Game Three guy, he gets the nod on a full eight days off. Then, if needed, Harden goes on six days' rest (and probably after a kid-gloves outing on the final day of the regular season, if he even goes then; given how well he's pitched on long rest I might give Marshall a start in that spot to save Harden up) and Zambrano comes back for Game Five. And if they do make the NLCS, I'm frankly fine with pretty much any order. Obviously it'd be nice if you could get there in four games or less, enabling Zambrano and Dempster to pitch four of a possible seven games in the NLCS. But there's no reason to get greedy.

#3: I'm assuming the postseason roster is going to consist of 11 pitchers and 14 position players, at least for the first round (if you're not carrying five starters, there's no reason to carry 12 pitchers). Here's my vote:

Starters: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden

Marquis has been surprisingly competent in the second half this year, effectively reversing his usual trend. He's got a 3.38 ERA in September (albeit in just 18.2 innings), and in his last eight starts, dating to August 1, he hasn't given up more than 4 runs (and then just twice) and has four quality starts in the group. But with all that said, there's really no need to have five starters for the Division Series. Maybe you could bring him back for the NLCS, if the Cubs get that far.

Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Howry, Samardzija, Marshall, (Gaudin, Lieber or Wells)

The first six are pretty obvious. Wood and Marmol are the best the Cubs have, and Samardzija has tailed off a bit, but he's still a better option than the other available ones. Cotts and Marshall are your lefties (and of course Marshall can throw long innings in an absolute pinch), and Howry... well, he's a veteran. And actually, aside from a real stinkbomb four-run, no-out appearance on September 2 at Houston, he hasn't given up a run since August 22 and has allowed just six hits in eight other innings in that time. Okay, only eight innings, but he hasn't looked this good since May. As for the last slot, I'm not sure at the moment about the injury status of Gaudin and Lieber right now. I'd take Gaudin if all were healthy. If Gaudin and Lieber are both question marks, Randy Wells has looked pretty good in a couple outings so maybe you go that direction. Wuertz is about the only other option but I think it's fair to say Piniella isn't exactly crazy about him (and he gave up three of the runs in that ridiculous 14-9 win over the Reds).

Catchers: Soto, Blanco

Duh.

Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno, Ward

No hard choices here.

Outfield: Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome, (Hoffpauir or Pie)

The only real question here is whether you value Hoffpauir's bat or Pie's value as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. The latter might be more important in the playoffs (and Pie has shown the ability to get a hit on occasion anyway, and he's also left-handed), so I might go with Pie here, especially since Hoffpauir's defensive value is pretty much nil.

Looking at that lineup, it's almost funny how there's no real difficult decision to be made. You'll probably live with any of the back-end relief pitchers, and Hoffpauir vs. Pie is probably a tossup as far as how much value either will give you, albeit maybe in different ways. If Marquis isn't on the roster, you may prefer Pie to pinch-run for Ward in close spots, of which there will assuredly be some.

There's still some baseball to be played, of course, but we can't avoid it now: the Cubs are in the playoffs.

Carlosing it

2008-08-26T22:24:00.002-05:00

Where have I been lately? Well, things were steaming along, I didn't have much to add and little complain about, so I just let it go. But as much as I hate to complain after a win, tonight's game seems to deserve some addressing.

What in the hell is wrong with Carlos Zambrano? Is it just arm angle? Mental? Fatigue? A combination?

After coming off the DL, Zambrano appeared to have found his form. Here were his first six starts after returning, not including his solid two innings in the All-Star Game:

July 4 @ STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K
July 9 vs. CIN: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K
July 19 @ HOU: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 3 K
July 24 vs. FLA: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K
July 29 @ MIL: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K
August 3 vs. PIT: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K

Pretty strong there, except for the game in Houston right after the break. But that's five out of six strong starts; the July 4, 9 and 29 games, in particular, are probably the three best games he threw all year.

Then came his last few starts:

August 9 vs. STL: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 1 BB, 3 K
August 15 @ FLA: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 BB, 6 K
August 21 vs. CIN: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 4 K
August 26 @ PIT: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 K

After all this, his ERA is only 3.53, but this is still a disturbing trend. That's awful control the last three starts, and he just doesn't seem to be missing many bats. Okay, it's only four starts, and actually he's only 1-1 through them, but... recently on ESPN.com, Jayson Stark did a chat that debated which team had the best potential playoff rotation (i.e. top four starters), and he picked the Cubs. But if Zambrano - the theoretical ace of the staff - can't be relied upon not to walk four guys and give up 5-6 runs or worse, that puts a pretty big hole in the rotation.

It may be that I'm overreacting. Z was up and down last year too, putting together five straight starts in August/September where he allowed 31 runs in 28.2 innings (and bookended those five starts with two starts in which he gave up a combined 12 walks in 11 innings, although he allowed just two runs combined in those two games, somehow). He also proceeded to go 4-1 in his last five starts, giving up no runs in the last two, and then had a nice start in the playoffs. So really, who the hell knows? But with that said, he's making what, 18 million a year? You need to be better than the third-best guy on a staff for that kind of cash.

Well, anyway. That's nine straight series wins, the first time the Cubs have done that since 1907, which is ridiculous. It's also their first time at 32 games over .500 since September 15, 1984 and, before that, September 2, 1969; if they win tomorrow, it'll be their first time at 33 games over .500 since they finished the 1945 season at 42 over. I refuse to assume a championship or even a pennant, but with stats like that... if this isn't the year, what the hell is it going to take?

Brew Ha Ha

2008-07-31T22:25:00.002-05:00

Hey, remember how confident the Brewers were a week ago?

The Brewers have downplayed the much-hyped July series after initially calling it a dress rehearsal and a test for September and the playoffs.

"This is not a death sentence by any means," Yost said. "If this was September, it would be different. We have plenty of time to recover from this and get back on track."

I mean, obviously he's not wrong. It's not even August yet; at this time last year the Cubs still trailed by a game (tying for first for the first time all season on August 1). But given how people were starting to talk about the Brewers being the hottest team in the NL (which I guess they technically have been, record-wise) and how the Cubs were so bad on the road and were in real danger of losing the division lead...

Well, who's laughing now??? Not only did the Cubs win four straight on the road, they dropped the Brewers from one back to five back at a stroke, returning to a position the Cubs hadn't occupied since July 12. The starting pitching continued to be awesome and the hitting finally came around, with the Cubs scoring 31 runs in the four games - nearly 8 per - and allowing just 11. The Cubs now have a +130 run differential, and the Brewers' is down to just +10.

It may not make or break the season, but it certainly was a statement series. First of all, it proved the Cubs can win on the road (although of course the Cubs do have a lot of historical success at Miller Park), it proved they can score runs again, it more or less proved their starting pitching is better than the Brewers' top to bottom, and more importantly it didn't just keep the Cubs in first, but it pushed their advantage well out. It's certainly a lot better than splitting the series and still being up just a game, or losing three of four and leaving Milwaukee in second place.

More importantly, this should shut up Brewers fans for a while. And more importantly, this is hopefully the start of a new trend towards more offense again. As long as the starting pitching keeps up, 5-6 runs a game should be more than enough in most games. And coming up, it's nine games at home, with the first six against cellar dwellers Pittsburgh and Houston. (Of course, watch them somehow lose one of those series now that I'm getting all excited again.)

August is really the time to extend the lead in the division. Here are the August series:

August 1-3: vs. Pirates
August 4-6: vs. Astros
August 8-10: vs. Cardinals
August 12-14: at Braves
August 15-17: at Marlins
August 19-21: vs. Reds
August 22-24: vs. Nationals
August 25-27: at Pirates
August 28-31: vs. Phillies

There's really no excuse for losing any of those series, is there? The divisional series should all be wins, there's no excuse for the Nationals series not to be a sweep, the Braves have given up and are banged up, the Marlins still aren't that good and if we had had any offense last week we'd have swept them, and while the Phillies worry me a little, in a home series we ought to at least be able to split. So that's 28 games in August. I say nothing less than 18-10 is acceptable, and ideally even better. This is the month to push that lead in the division out closer to double digits. Let's see them do it.

Fire Bob Howry

2008-07-25T16:36:00.002-05:00

Remember how, in 2007, Scott Eyre was struggling like crazy early in the year, and Piniella's response was to stop using him except in absolute mop-up situations? Well, what's his excuse for continuing to run Bob Howry out there in key game situations? He's got a 5.22 ERA for the year, and here's what his last eight appearances look like:

July 8 vs. Reds: Howry enters with a 7-1 lead in the ninth. He gives up a single, a deep out to left, another single, an RBI double and an RBI groundout before striking out Jay Bruce to end the game.
July 11 vs. Giants: Howry enters a scoreless tie in the eighth. He retires the 8-9-1 hitters in order and ends up getting the win when Aramis Ramirez hits a homer in the bottom of the inning.
July 12 vs. Giants: After Kevin Hart struggles to start the eighth, giving up two runs, Neal Cotts gets one out. Howry then enters the 7-2 game with a man on first. He retires Rich Aurilia on a sac bunt, then gets Randy Winn to fly out to end the inning. (Carlos Marmol subsequently pours gasoline on himself in the ninth.)
July 18 at Astros: Howry comes into the game with the score tied 1-1 and two outs in the bottom of the eighth. He retires Carlos Lee on a groundout. After the Cubs fail to score, Howry is brought back out for the ninth. He gives up a ground-rule double to Miguel Tejada, then allows another double to Hunter Pence on the very first pitch. Tejada scores and the Cubs lose 2-1.
July 21 at Diamondbacks: Howry enters in the 8th with the Cubs down 1-0. He walks light-hitting catcher Chris Snyder to start the inning, then gives up two deep fly balls to center which fortunately both go for outs. Then Stephen Drew hits a 1-1 pitch for a triple to put Arizona up 2-0, which is how it finished.
July 23 at Diamondbacks: Howry enters in the 8th with a cushy 10-3 lead. He gives up a single to Conor Jackson, then strikes out Mark Reynolds (who hasn't). Chris Young doubles. Tony Clark lines out. Howry then gives up a home run to Snyder on a 3-2 pitch to cut the lead to 10-6. Alex Romero strikes out to end the threat.
July 24 vs. Marlins: Despite throwing 33 pitches the previous night in Arizona, Howry enters in the 8th with the bases loaded, no one out, and the Cubs clinging to a 6-2 lead. He gets Cody Ross to fly out on the first pitch, then throws eight pitches to Luis Gonzalez before Gonzo hits the last one like a rocket to right center. Mark DeRosa bails Howry out with a diving catch, although the runner at third tags and scores. Howry is pulled for Carlos Marmol, who ends the inning with a strikeout of Josh Willingham.
July 25 vs. Marlins: Howry pitches for the third day in a row, entering in the top of the ninth with the game tied at 2. He immediately allows what turns out to be the game-losing solo home run to pinch-hitter Jeremy Hermida. The next four guys all hit the ball fairly hard off of him, but only Hanley Ramirez's double doesn't find a glove, so he escapes allowing just one run.

Basically, he's been awful recently. Not a single one of those outings is impressive. Either he's giving up runs, or allowing bullets that are fortunately caught. In the rare cases where he's cruised, it's only because he faced the bottom of the order or was gifted an out via the sac bunt.

But here's what kills me. Lou brought him into the game on Wednesday when the Cubs had a 10-3 lead. Seven runs! When a guy comes into a game with that kind of cushion, that makes me think that he isn't exactly trusted by the manager. Why use your top-level guys in blowout situations? It's not like Howry desperately needed to get some work in - he'd pitched two days earlier. The fact that he was being brought into the game in that spot suggests that Lou considered Howry's results in his last two outings - both of which saw him give up a run, once losing the game - and thought he should get some mop-up work just to see what was going on.

With that in mind, did the three-run homer he gave up to Snyder not make it clear that he's not cut out for high-leverage situations right now? Why was he right back out there with the bases loaded and nobody out the next night? (I know the answer here is: probably not a better option available. But that's pretty sad, isn't it?) More importantly, why was he out there today in a 2-2 game with everyone else in the bullpen available? The only possible answer is that Piniella still trusts Howry more than he trusts Cotts or Eyre or Gaudin or Marshall. And if that's the case, that's a really big problem.

The Cubs' starting pitching has probably been the best in baseball over the last 2-3 weeks. Since July 1, only three times in 20 games has the Cubs' starter gone fewer than six innings, and in no game has the starter allowed more than four runs; of the 20 games, the Cubs' starters have delivered fifteen quality starts (6 innings or more, three runs or less), and while that's kind of a bullshit stat, it at least gives you some idea of the kind of starting pitching that's been delivered. But the bullpen has been appalling. In the same 20 games, the bullpen has given up at least two runs eight times. They blew the win for the starter three times in that span (although only one of those turned into a loss for the Cubs, mercifully). Offense has probably been a bigger problem - the Cubs are averaging 4.3 runs a game in that span, with a 2-8 record in the games where they've scored three runs or fewer and an 8-2 record in the games where they've scored four or more. In other words, if they could score 4+ runs a little more consistently, the whole issue might evaporate. But while the team is going through a little bit of an offensive drag, it can't afford to have one entire sector of its pitching staff crushing the team the way it's doing right now.

But how do you fix this? Jeff Samardzija, who pitched two innings today, is one possible answer, although it's hard to believe he won't go right back to Iowa when Wood comes off the DL, if only because there's no other obvious candidate for demotion since Howry is too old for that. (Cotts, I guess maybe, but that leaves the Cubs with only one lefty out of the pen.) The trade deadline is still six days away, but reliable bullpen pitching is such a rare commodity that the guys out there for trade are either much more expensive than they should be or just not that good in the first place. (Remember, most guys are in the bullpen because they're not good enough to be starters. Sometimes that works out - Marmol - but a lot of times you're just left with a guy who's only good enough to get three outs one out of every three appearances. Right now Howry is that guy.)

Now, no one really has great bullpen pitching, it seems. Milwaukee's has been notoriously lousy for most of this year and St. Louis's hasn't been any good recently either. So it's not like that's going to make the difference, so long as the offense comes back around a bit. But until that happens consistently, having a bullpen that can't hold a one-run lead 40% of the time it's called upon risks being really devastating to this team, especially with the Brewers now just a half-game back (and potentially tying for the division lead by the end of the night). My dad's been freaking out about the offense the last ten days or so, but I think this team has too much talent there not to return to form pretty soon; it's the bullpen, which has been somewhat shaky all year and even worse than that lately, where I'm directing a nervous look.

The kind of game that will drive you crazy

2008-07-21T23:03:00.003-05:00

There's nothing worse than losing a game you clearly should have won out of nothing other than sheer bad luck. The Cubs started their series at Arizona with one such. Randy Johnson, 12-0 with a sub-2.00 career ERA against the Cubs entering the game, was hardly the Randy Johnson of old. He was hit hard and often, facing 24 batters and striking out just four - he allowed fifteen fly balls, tied for a career high he had only given up twice before in his career (once earlier this year against the Twins, and once in 1992 against the Yankees). But all fifteen found gloves, with at least half of them doing so within ten feet or so of the fence.

Truly it was a night for horrible luck. The Cubs' two hits were both singles - a Jim Edmonds shot up the middle, and a Reed Johnson swinging bunt to third base. The Diamondbacks also only managed two hits - and Harden struck out ten Diamondbacks, giving them fewer chances to even put the ball in play. But their two hits were a solo home run (of course by the #8 hitter, who had zero previous major league homers) and a triple in the eighth (which of course followed a walk and so allowed Arizona to tack on an insurance run, not that they needed it).

Harden is now 0-1 as a Cub when he should be 2-0. He's the first Cub ever, or at least since 1900, to strike out ten men in each of his first two games as a Cub. He's pitched great. And he's 0-1.

If there's anything that will convince you that the universe doesn't really want the Cubs to win this year, it's games like this one. Absolutely unreal. Of course, maybe you could argue that it's one last test, but honestly, haven't we suffered enough?