Copper Blue Dreams

Coyote Trouble

2009-04-05T11:30:00.003-06:00

I learned something during a short and unwanted stay in Phoenix due to a missed connecting flight. We were talking to the shuttle driver taking us back to the airport early in the morning and were enlightened by three findings.

First, when asked “if you were going to do something in Phoenix, where on that list would you put attending a Coyotes game?” The answer was “umm probably right after dying.”

Next the driver enlightened us by saying “I think that if your state does not naturally produce ice then you should not have a hockey team.” This was followed by “I have lived in Phoenix for 4 years and for the first 3, I thought the Coyotes were a minor league baseball team.”

Now obviously I citizen does not make a city, however, if this is the general though through the city I assume the Coyotes are in deep trouble as a franchise

R.I.P.

2009-03-31T22:15:00.004-06:00

Games the Oilers should have won...

2009-03-31T13:04:00.000-06:00

With the Oilers ever embattled to attain the last playoff spot in the Western Conference race one only has to look back to team’s inability to win earlier in the season to find that the race does not need to be. The following in a list of games that had the Oilers pulled off would have positioned this team into a playoff spot currently instead of fighting for their lives at this point in the season.

Nov. 5, 2008

5-4 loss to the Jackets, up 4-2 with 17 minutes to play, end up falling asleep for 1 minute game tied 4-4 and give up a late one to lose the game.

Nov. 13, 2008

5-2 loss to the Maple Leafs, JDD’s first NHL loss, but still with the way that the Maple Leafs were slumping there is no excuse not to put away a terrible team

Nov. 15, 2008

3-2 Shootout loss to the Avalanche, strong game but give up the tying goal with 11 seconds left.

Dec 11, 2008

2-0 loss to the Panthers, at the time the Panthers were near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, out shoot the Panthers 41-16 but still the offensive touch is lacking like so often this year

Dec 30, 2008

3-2 loss to the Senators, the Senators came into the game on a long road losing steak only to snap it against the Oilers. Again the Oilers fail to close out a struggling hockey club.

Feb 21, 2009

3-2 shootout loss to the Flames, again the Oilers give up a late goal and lose in the shootout. Inability to close out teams evident.

As I looked at this list a couple of ideas came forward. First, the Oilers have been more consistent in the latter part of the season. Second, had the Oilers closed these games out you could add 10 points to their current total.

However, I would argue that if I am arbitrarily adding points for games the Oilers should have won then more then likely I should also be taking points away for games they should have lost so if we take only half the points the Oilers could have attained then they would have 5 extra which would place them tied for 6th with Columbus and holding a 3 point lead in the standings over the 9th place blues.

4 Million in the NHL

2009-03-29T13:59:00.002-06:00

Dustin Penner has endured quite a bit of flak this year from both coaches and fans.

From the MacT you have beauties such as:

•"We thought the contract ($4.25 million average for five years) was a starting point for him, but he views it as a finish line. I can't watch it, certainly not for another [3 1/2 years]"

•"He has to get his game to a level where he can help us, to this point, it hasn't gotten there.”

•"He's not competitive enough or fit enough to help us, so why put him back in? He's never been fit enough to help us, we signed him to be a top-two line player and that's kind of where it ended.”

• "We're at a critical time and we can't wait for players' games to round into shape. We need guys to perform."

The first three quotes are from middle November (1,2,3) with the last coming from earlier March (4).

From the fans you hear constant criticism such as:

•“Penner making it to the arena on time was a surprise. [Fortunately], the Anaheim Fire Department was able to use the Jaws of Life to un-wedge Penner from the 'Space Mountain' roller coaster car he was stuck on.”

•“If they can send him to the minors… go for it. If someone wants to claim him off of waivers… great as it would take the $$$$ off our books. But who will want to pay $4 mill a season for someone who has [underachieved] badly this year.”

•“I think that the problem is Penner was brought on to this team to fill a role that it is unrealistic for him to fulfill.”

While this is only a short synopsis these are the basic arguments that fans make in some of the hockey discussion forums (Sportnet 1,2 and HF boards 3).

Basically the fact comes down that some fans and the coach believe Penner to be: inconsistent, out of shape, and a waste of cap space.

With that being said I thought that I would focus on the first and last issue in the previous statement by comparing the forwards throughout the league that make within the 4 million dollar range. I excluded all players that made more money then Penner due to the fact that if possible the Oilers could fit those players under the cap space currently taken up by the aforementioned Penner. So without further adieu here is the list.

Name	Team	Age	Salary	GP	G	A	P	TOI/G	P/60
D. Penner	EDM	26	4.25	72	17	19	36	15:42	1.91
M. Ryder	BOS	28	4.00	66	26	23	49	14:58	2.97
D. Roy	BUF	25	4.00	75	26	39	65	21:17	2.44
E. Cole	CAR	29	4.00	75	18	19	37	17:29	1.69
P. Sharp	CHI	26	3.90	57	25	17	42	18:08	2.44
M. Hedjuk	COL	32	3.90	75	26	29	55	20:02	2.20
J. Lehtinen	DAL	35	4.00	41	8	15	23	19:22	1.74
B. Morrow	DAL	29	4.10	18	5	10	15	21:21	2.34
N. Horton	FLA	23	4.00	61	20	22	42	17:57	2.30
M. Handzus	L.A.	31	4.00	75	17	22	39	18:59	1.64
P.M. Bouchard	MIN	24	4.08	71	16	30	46	16:58	2.29
R. Lang	MTL	37	4.00	50	18	21	39	16:52	2.77
J.P. Dumont	NSH	30	4.00	75	15	43	58	17:26	2.66
B. Gionta	NJD	29	4.00	74	18	39	57	16:57	2.73
M. Naslund	NYR	34	4.00	76	23	20	43	17:19	1.96
M. Comrie	OTT	27	4.00	55	10	16	26	15:58	1.78
M. Fisher	OTT	28	4.20	70	12	17	29	18:29	1.34
S. Hartnell	PHI	26	4.20	74	29	30	59	17:51	2.70
B. Boyes	STL	26	4.00	75	29	33	62	19:16	2.57
K. Tkachuk	STL	36	4.00	72	22	20	42	17:09	2.04
J. Blake	TOR	34	4.00	72	25	35	60	18:23	2.72
P. Demitra	VAN	33	4.00	61	18	31	49	17:36	2.73
S. Federov	WSH	38	4.00	46	8	20	28	16:29	2.21
Average		29.8		64.6	18.7	24.8	43.5	17:55	2.27

For a closer look here are Penner’s stats in comparison with only the average.

D. Penner	EDM	25	4.25	72	17	19	36	15:42	1.91
Average		29.8		64.6	18.7	24.8	43.5	17:55	2.27

Here is a few things I believe that we can glean from these stats:

First, Penner is a big body, who is roughly 4 years younger then the average, and is/has not been injury prone having only missed games this season from being benched and overall has played about 7 games more than the average of the other players making the same amount of money.

Second, looking at point production he is only 2 goals away from being above average in said department, 6 assists shy of being above average in assists and as such 8 points from above average in the points category. As well, he has done this while playing over 2 minutes less per game then the statistical average.

Thus I would have to agree with Lowetide’s column that in fact the contract Penner signed has not been a bust. Penner is currently 26 years old and in his 3rd year of NHL hockey. My final comment would be that I would much rather have Penner on my team than many of the other players on the previous list.

Playoff hopes

2009-03-29T03:47:00.004-06:00

Well I figured, that with 7 games left in the regular season, I would crawl out of the hole that I have been living in and actually post something for the first time in roughly a year. According to www.sportsclubstats.com the Oilers currently have a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs currently. A win against minnesota tomorrow would "increase" that chance by 15% and make the playoff tickets, I have paid so much for at least, useful.

Appease the Fans!

2009-03-04T17:52:00.004-07:00

So Tambellini decided to keep us waiting with baited breath until the very last possible moment today before making two trades. It was a relatively slow deadline day even though 22 trades were made. It was all the expected players and the only 'big name' guy to go was Jokinen. Calgary got pumped all day as the 'big players' even though they made only two trades. The Brian Burke love-in at TSN almost made me vomit. They cut off Eric Cole to go to Burke's presser, then five minutes after it was over they do a one on one interview with him and ask the same questions. All the while trades are starting to come in. Worst statement of the day? Pierre 'Monster' McGuire stating that basically the Oilers traded Pitkanen and Cole for O'sullivan. WHERE IS THE LOGIC IN THAT? On national television no less. I'll keep the rest short as we've all seen the trades.

Very good value for Cole. The way I'm seeing it is Cole and a 5th for O'Sullivan and Kotalik. Kotalik is a UFA and O'sullivan has 2 years left at about 2.9. Cole was not resigning here so again, great value.
I think the only team you could have traded Cole to is Carolina, its the one team that probably wouldn't treat him like a UFA as he surely signs there this summer. This is why Tambellini was able to get value for him.
Frolov must not have been available as you HAVE to assume he was the Oilers first choice.
Word out of Ryan Rishaug's mouth is that Kotalik is the guy to play #1 LW which goes against most fans initial thoughts. I don't understand why we gave up the 2nd for 20 games of this guy (who is a natural RW), but we shall see.

What I've briefly seen/heard on each player:

O'sullivan: good AHL scorer with average NHL stats, 24 years old, shoots a lot (200 shots) but scores a little (14 goals). Rob Daum coached him with the Aeros in the AHL so he must have put word in on it. I take that as a good sign. He's a smallish offensive first forward, which we obviously have no shortage of on this team.
Kotalik: Great shot, probably the second best shot on this team right now. Average player who is about a 45 point guy that can at least hold his own in both ends. I question whether he re-signs with us.

So an interesting day. They were able to protect all the young core players of this team and flip 2o games of Cole for a couple of assets, one of which likely has a long term future with this team. The one thing that scares me is this team just got smaller and softer by trading one of their most physical forwards.

All in all, well played Tambellini, well played. You'll survive at least until draft day.

Grading the Draft

2009-02-20T19:38:00.009-07:00

Every so often, Scott Cullen at TSN comes up with a gem, and today he wrote a great article explaining the value of draft picks and just how little that value really is. He makes some interesting conclusions:

There is not much difference between picking in the middle of the fourth round and the eighth or anywhere in between.
First round picks are the only ones likely to make it to the NHL (though he does mention they get more opportunity, I think he undervalues this).
The drafts in 1995 and 1998 offered the best return

After breezing through the article, I have come up with some of my own thoughts regarding this:

Of the players who do turn out in the later rounds a majority appear to be defenceman. It is generally regarded that they take longer to reach potential and peak in later years which is probably a likely explanation.
The top 5 is generally a safe bet but picking in the 20's has provided some solid results. It would be interesting to learn about scouting department's philosophies depending on the spot their picking from. I think this plays a role in why 6-10 shows a decline.
You have to think that the 2003 draft will provide outstanding results and probably out do the 95 and 98 drafts. They have been given 14 and 11 years to yield where as the 03 draft only 6. Late blooming NHLers still have time to gain traction from the 03 draft.
Don't draft goalies with your high picks!

So the article provides solid evidence that draft picks can be over valued by some, specifically outside the 2nd round. Basically the draft is a crap shoot outside the top 5 picks, and some teams spend money to improve drafting, but all your doing is improving your odds. They're still bad odds.

Pad Stacking

2009-02-16T14:48:00.020-07:00

One of the biggest holes on this team has been a lack of consistently great goaltending. This team has lacked it probably since Joseph save for maybe a season or two of Salo and Roloson's post trade 2006 season. As for Roloson, he has had some great games and is playing well of late, but he has had some horrendous games to go along with that. What I feel you should be looking for in this position is a goaltender who keeps you in almost every game and will steal you the odd one. This team needs to end the roller coaster ride that its been suffering through for almost a decade. If you look at our track record you will see, consistently good goaltending = playoffs.

So I've tried to compile a list of possibilities that this team could look at come July (I don't see goaltending address at the deadline, we have other issues). When looking at the goaltenders out there I tried to use common sense before putting them on the list. This is why you won't see a guy like Backstrom on this list, there is no way Minnesota lets him walk and if they did it would be for astronomical dollars, which this team has already spent. Some of them are free agents (RFA and UFA) and some would have to come via trade, which I also tried to use common sense on, which is why you won't see Luongo or Brodeur on here :).

I've broken them down into two categories: sure things that you can expect to know what you'll get from them and then projects, who have shown the ability to be good but have not flourished in their current role. Each has its pros and cons, with money being a big one, and as you'll see I've tended to lean towards knowing what you're going to get.

UNKNOWNS

1. LEHTONEN, 25 (RFA) - Second overall draft pick back in 2002 has been mediocre on a bad team. The Thrashers have the 2nd worst GA/G in the league this season and were tied for last in 07/08. He has maintained a sv% over .900 since entering the league. In his four seasons as an NHL starter he's posted: .907, .916, .912, .906 from most recent to least. Lehtonen destroys AHL competition so the possibility of playing for a better defensive team may allow him to become a dominant goaltender in this league.

Money: He was a 3 mill cap hit on what I believe was a one year deal. As an RFA I wonder if it may be easier to trade for his rights then sign for Roloson money?

2. NIITTYMAKI, 28 (UFA) - A late round pick of the flyers, he has not had a great start to his career, but after some rough years he looks to have settled down. Posting career bests with a 2.59 GAA and .916 sv% he is outdoing his counterpart on the Flyers (Biron) and getting less playing time. I'm not sure what the Flyers plans are for who they intend to keep (both are UFAs) but I think NIITTYMAKI is worth a look.

Money: He was a 1.225 cap hit so his price tag should not be much, possibly as low as in the 2.0 million range.

3. KHABIBULIN, 36 (UFA) - The dominating, cup-winner that was great for Tampa has been far from since signing his big contract with Chicago. But this season with Chicago's resurgance as a dominat team Khabibulin has also recovered posting 2.37 GAA and .924 sv%, so we know he has the possibility to be a great goaltender. I do have reasons for putting him in this group. For one, who knows what his intentions are going forward and what the possibility of Edmonton being in his plans. Another is his age, he has been splitting games 50/50 with Heut and at 36 he likely only has a couple years left but at what level and for how many games?

Money: Coming off a 6.75 mill 5 year deal I doubt he is looking for a big pay cut. Your likely paying at the least 6.0 for his services.

4. LECLAIRE, 26 (2yrs/3.8mil) - The 8th overall pick in 2001 has had a hit and miss career. In 07-08 he was amazing, posting a 2.25 GAA/.919 sv% and league leading 9 shutouts only to be snubbed from Vezina voting and not even receive a single vote (11 goalies did). This season Leclaire has been out a large portion of the year with an ankle injury. He's young and not exactly proven, but if you could get similar seasons like last year out of him you'd be in the gravy. If Mason is CBJ's goalie going forward they may look to deal Leclaire to get depth and make a playoff push.

Money: he has 2 years left at a 3.8mil cap hit then UFA. Takes Roloson's money and is signed for another two years.

CONSISTENT PERFORMERS

5. GIGUERE, 31 (2yrs/6.0) - Since joining Anaheim he has elevated his career to be a great starting goalie, even winning the Conn Smythe in '03 on the losing team. Amazing numbers since the lockout, Giguere has faltered this year. He is being outplayed by his counterpart Hiller, and being out played badly. Giguere is posting a 3.09 GAA and .903 sv% in 35gp compared to Hiller's 2.20 GAA and .924 sv% in 30 gp. Hiller is a 24 year old sophmore but Anaheim may want to throw the reins to him come next season. Its a positive asset just to remove Giguere's cap hit off the books. As for Edmonton, even though Giguere is having a bad year he too good of a goalie to be bad for long and a new motivation may be what he needs.

Money: Edmonton would need to clear cap space for him, as Roloson will only be 3.667 coming off of our books.

6. FERNANDEZ, 34 (UFA) - Was a very good goalie in Minnesota (why they trade Roloson to us) and when he plays he has continued that in Boston. The problem with Fernandez has been a nagging knee injury that wiped out his entire year last year and caused him to miss ample time the year before, including the playoffs. But if you can get a healthy Fernandez you have a great starter that will provide you with consistent goaltending. He's taking about 40% of the games in Boston and isn't being outdone by their hero Thomas (GAA 2.12 / 2.15 SV% .931 / .925) so both are putting up equal stats. Age and injuries may be risky with him, but he is likely available as Boston will choose to keep the higher profile Thomas.

Money: coming off of a deal that had a 4.33 cap hit Fernandez will be looking for money in the 5.0+ range and his boxcars are likely slightly inflated playing on a dominating team like the Bruins.

There are some interesting choices this offseason and there is definately options available to the Oilers to shore up their goaltending situation. There are questions as to whether this team should spend money on goaltending or go with a journyman and use the money elsewhere in the roster. I think with a very good defence and excellent goaltending this team can go far, especially in the second season where these things stand out more than any other.

Just some food for thought regarding the available tenders this summer.

EPIC Fail

2009-02-07T17:40:00.004-07:00

I've never seen this team lose so big, so often. That first period was possibly the worst period of hockey in this teams history. It was like a beer league team came to play shinny against the defending Stanley Cup Champions. Only they forgot the beer.

Here's a little gem....if you can't laugh at your own team who can you laugh at. Besides the Leafs of course.

We're back.....again?

2009-02-06T16:34:00.001-07:00

Built from limbs and organs of useless dead corpses.....

Oilers Lose Hossa Sweepstakes and Dodge a Bullet

2008-07-03T09:36:00.000-06:00

After throwing a reported deal of 9 years and 92 million dollars (at least that is what I take from the Rich Winter quote “I have never been involved in a deal and seen a player get so excited to take $85 million less than he was offered elsewhere.”) at Marian Hossa only to have him sign a 1-year 7.45 million dollar contract with Detroit it seems as though the Oilers have lost again. However, in some fashion I believe that they have won in a few areas.

First, they have proven through the league that they are trying to get better and obtain a high profile player. This act will hopefully show other teams and players that they have the drive and the vision needed to be successful and possible will not have to overpay to get free agents in the future.

Second, they have banished the thought that they are only a small market Canadian team that can not go after big names. Which will only help the credibility of the other Canadian teams and show the strength of the Canadian dollar in the new NHL.

Third, they do not have a player taking up 16% of their cap room for next year and will have to money available to start negotiations with the likes of Horcoff and have money to resign players like Gagner, Cogliano and Smid when the time comes.

Forth, they still have to fill out a little part of their line up and will avoid having to trade players for draft picks to get under the salary cap for next year.

Many questions are still floating around Edmonton as to “do you attempt to get Hossa next year on July 1^st when he becomes a free agent again?” My simple answer to that is no. If he did not want to take the chance and come to Edmonton believing they are not an elite team, then we do not need a player like that wearing the Oilers silks.

Hemmer's Triggerman

2008-06-26T22:43:00.001-06:00

The difference between this offseason and last has been somewhat Jekyll and Hyde. The 06-07 season could be called nothing less than disastrous, with the team failing to make the playoffs after being in the Stanley Cup on top of trading away the face of the team, Ryan Smyth. This lead into an offseason in which Kevin Lowe claimed to be bring in “six to eight new faces”, a large amount by any means. So insert UFA signings like Mathieu Garon and Sheldon Souray, much talked about RFA signing Dustin Penner, as well as one of the largest youth movements in recent memory. So abracadabra and we are back in the Stanley Cup finals right? Wrong.

The team struggled to find chemistry, and this was most evident on a horrendous power play that lacked imagination. This put the team in the basement of the west for much of the 2007 calendar year and made the playoffs yet another distant dream. But as the New Year rolled forward so did the team. The youth movement started looking good and players like Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Robert Nilsson, and Denis Grebeshkov started showing why they were put on this team. The team finished strong only to be eliminated from the playoffs in the final days.

Which brings us to ‘Offseason 2008’. Kevin Lowe has gone from man possessed to man relaxed. He has pieces to deal and holes to fill, but nothing major. From all accounts in his quotes and actions he is in no rush to make a trade, at least not in the same fashion as last year. During the draft weekend it was expected something would be done, but the prices were high and Lowe wasn’t buying. The holes this team has are a bit of a grey area as guys like Curtis Glencross, Jarret Stoll are free agents. The one constant is a top line forward that can play with Hemsky. More specifically this team needs a left wing shooter who will finish the passes he receives from Hemmer. This leads us to a list of three candidates I have compiled from around the league. Things I want out of this spot include someone who likes to shoot (and finishes!), has veteran experience to improve on the youngest team in the NHL, and obviously someone who is not only available but affordable. So let’s get into it.

Jason Blake - $4 mill cap hit for four more seasons

Thoughts: It is pretty obvious that Blake is available and I’d assume for not a lot. He was second in the league in shots for LW to Ovechkin, so he’s a shooter for sure. Had a tough year for goals with only 15 but put up 57 points. His shooting % was a awful 4.5 and his career average is not much better at 8. From the stats he looks to be a 25 goal scorer who had one unbelievable 40 goal year with an unsustainable 13% shooting. So maybe he doesn’t offer the finish you’d like, especially for 4 mill but he gets a lot of shots on net and who knows what can happen with a new team. He has been very healthy in his career playing at least 75 games every year and was able to play every game this season even after being diagnosed with cancer.

Eric Cole - $4 mill cap hit for next year then UFA

Thoughts: Cole’s name has come up on numerous occasions and there is a reason for it. He’s the type of player we’re looking for and he fits. He was in the top 20 for LW shooters and scored 22 goals in a sub par year for him. He is a 30 goal scorer with some speed and size which are two qualities that Blake doesn’t offer. He is the youngest of the three that will be listed at 29 but still offers some veteran leadership including a cup win (though only playing two games). He is likely to cost the most in terms of assets but would fit in well on a line with Horcoff and Hemsky. One major issue with Cole is health as he has yet to play a full season.

Marcus Naslund – UFA

Thoughts: Naslund is an interesting idea. He is a long time Canuck coming off of a subpar year in which is relationship with the team became clearly strained. There are many things to like about Naslund; he is a veteran leader, was tenth in shooting for LW last year, has been a 40 goal scorer three times, has decent speed, and has been healthy throughout his career. The question marks surrounding him would be obviously his age as he will be 35 this year, as well as his willingness to play in the NHL and for the Oilers. Speculation is that he may want to return to Sweden instead of staying in North America. Finally we would have to know what kind of compensation Naslund is looking for. Coming off of a couple of seasons where he did not meet his career numbers Naslund could be had for an affordable price, assuming he is able to return to old form.

Nevertheless there are some interesting pieces to be had for the Oilers most pressing need. The question remains at what price and is Lowe willing to pay it. It will be interesting to see.

Oiler UFA and RFAs

2008-06-03T22:14:00.000-06:00

Part 1 – Introductions and Allan Rourke

With the Oilers signing Grebeshkov, Nilsson, and Gilbert early this “off-season” the question comes back what should they do with the other UFAs and RFAs. Now I know that the Oilers have many other RFA contracts (ex. Troy Bodie) but, I will limit these entry to players that have played at least 15 games with the big club.

Introductions:

The UFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Geoff Sanderson	Edmonton	1,500,000	41	3	10	13	-7	16
Marty Reasoner	Edmonton	950,000	82	11	14	25	-17	50
Curtis Glencross	Columbus	522,500	36	6	6	12	+8	25
Curtis Glencross	Edmonton	522,500	26	9	4	13	+8	28
Allan Rourke	Edmonton	475,000	13	0	0	0	-1	5
Allan Rourke	Springfield	475,000	44	3	11	14	-6	24

The RFAs

Player	07/08 team	07/08 compensation	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM
Joni Pitkanen	Edmonton	2,400,000	63	8	18	26	-5	56
Jarret Stoll	Edmonton	2,200,000	81	14	22	36	-23	74
Marc Pouliot	Edmonton	942,000	24	1	6	7	-1	18
Marc Pouliot	Springfield	942,000	55	21	26	47	-11	47
JF Jacques	Edmonton	650,000	9	0	0	0	-3	2
JF Jacques	Springfield	650,000	38	11	14	25	-13	63
Danny Syvret	Springfield	567,000	36	1	7	8	0	14
Danny Syvret	Hershey	567,000	27	1	11	12	-4	29
Zach Stortini	Edmonton	475,000	66	3	9	12	3	201
Zach Stortini	Springfield	475,000	4	3	2	5	0	21

Now that the introductions are out of the way let’s get down to what the Oilers should do with said players:

UFAs

I will start with Allan Rourke as out of the UFAs he earned the least, so if nothing else he will win at being the first player talked about in this blog.

Originally brought to the club as part of the deal that also brought back the Oilers 3^rd round selection in 2008 (later parlayed into Dustin Penner) for a 2^nd round pick in 2008. Rourke filled the role of utility defensemen when Souray, Tarnstrom, and Greene went down to various injuries from Nov. 10 – Dec. 10. During his time with the big club Rourke suited up for 13 games (the team went 6-6-1), playing an average of 10:55 per game. Which means that he played the equivalent of roughly 2 whole games while the team was playing .500 hockey. However he was dependable enough that he was only -1 during the time.

Now what should the Oilers do? Well with Grebeshkov, Gilbert, Staios, Greene, Souray, Smid already signed and Pitkanen a pending RFA and other prospects knocking on the door, Rourke would be pretty low on the depth chart. Relegating him to Springfield for the length of his new contract barring another rash of injuries. However, I would like to see the Oilers re-sign him as he is the ideal 8^th defensemen reliable and cheap. As well, if nothing else he could enhance the Falcons lineup for the 08-09 season by adding a guy who has been a career AHL player.

Coming Up: Part 2 Glencross – Sanderson

IIHF Update

2008-05-13T21:22:00.001-06:00

With the announcement that Sam Gagner will be drawing into the IIHF game for Canada tomorrow against Norway 6 Edmonton Oiler players will be representing their countries at the tournament (7 if you count Garon being the backups backup and I don’t so 6).

Now I know that during the qualifying rounds of this tournament powerhouses like Canada, US, Russia end up playing teams like Italy, Germany, Belarus etc. So stats this early do not usually mean much with teams winning games 10-1. However, it is still interesting to look at.

Player	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	TOI
Staios	Canada	6	0	0	0	+7	16:35
Grebeshkov	Russia	6	0	4	4	+6	13:48
Nilsson	Sweden	6	2	3	5	+5	12:00
Greene	USA	6	0	0	0	0	13:47
Gilbert	USA	6	1	3	4	0	16:39

So what can we glean from these results.

Well “Steady” Steve is having a pretty good campaign. Still no points to show, however, that is not what he is there for. He has been on the ice for 2 of the 10 goals scored against Canada, with both coming against the United States. He is also logging a fair amount of ice time as Duncan Keith is the team leader at 17:37.

Grebeshkov is also having a good tournament for his country. Despite having the second lowest TOI of regulars he is leading the Russian defensemen in point production. His +/- statistic is also pretty impressive at the Russians only had one lop sided win during the qualification round.

Mr. Nilsson is also picking up where he left off the regular season and is performing at a high level. He is currently tied for 7^th in point production on the Swedish team. While averaging much less ice time then his fellow countrymen.

Greene is much like Staios in the fact that he has no points, however, again if he was recruited to score them, the US scouting team did not do a very good job. However, he is logging some valuable minutes and has stayed even through the tournament which means that he must be playing responsible hockey.

Finally, Gilbert has been counted on to log the 3^rd most minutes on his team. He has also produced the 2^nd most points on the United States backend. While picking up where he left off has played responsible hockey and is even through the qualifying round.

Take from it what you want. But, to me with 4 of the 5 of these guys being 25 or under, with the addition of 18 year old Gagner and Pitkanen who left the team. The future looks bright for the Edmonton Oilers.

Condolences go out to the Stall family

Earth to Lowe!

2008-04-29T19:45:00.009-06:00

So they announced the Hart Trophy finalists the other day and something stood out to me. Russians. Young Russians. Ovechkin and Malkin make up two of the three finalists, and if one should win it will be the first time since Federov in 1994 and only second time ever. Apparently the Motherland has started churning out a very creamy crop of competitors (Alliteration!). Though it is rare to see Russians amongst the finalists of this award it will undoubtedly be a continuing trend. Three of the top four point getters in the NHL were Russian, and thats not including guys like Kovalchuk, Kovalev, and younger stars like Zherdev and Radulov. Players like these bring finesse and skill to a team and even more importantly: Goal Scoring.

This is where Stu MacGregor and Kevin Prendergast come in. This team is in dire need of a one shot goal scorer not seen in these parts since the first 20 games of Petr Sykora. This team is lacking and as Lowetide put it, there is one clear reason, "Russia is Death Valley for the Oilers at the draft table". The draft list of Russians for this team is nothing short of pitiful. The list since the 2000 Draft:

Not a single NHL player on that list. Trukhno is the only one who might break that curse but even he is not a sure thing. That is eight Russians selected of the 77 picks the Oilers have used in these drafts(10%). In the last three years the Draft average is 5.4% so we are drafting Russian born players at a high clip and have nothing to show for it. We can point the gun at Kent Nilsson and Frank Musil who were both brought in as European scouts by Kevin Lowe. This team is clearly not doing enough to bring in European and specifically Russian talent. Now I understand Ovechkin and Malkin went 1-2 at the 2004 draft but Oilers have had ample opportunity to draft skilled Russians high. Taking Plante over Cherapanov at last years draft was as much about Cherry being Russian as it was about them deciding to take a defenceman no matter what. The scouting staff needs a serious wake up call and hopefully that call answers our scoring needs.

Ovechkin for the Hart.

What if?

2008-04-25T18:41:00.000-06:00

What if the Oilers had not signed Penner to the offer sheet? We could assume that the Oilers would have finished with a worse record, due to the fact they would have been short a 23 goal man. Sure someone would have picked up a piece of that but likely not the entire total.

The question is then how much worse would the overall record have been? Currently the Oilers or really Anaheim holds the 12^th pick overall. Say for simplicity sake, say that no one was able to pick up the 4 game winning goals Penner scored this year. That is 4-8 points missing from the overall total, dropping the Oilers down to 80-84 points giving them the 6^th – 9^th overall pick. Which is around same pick that landed them Gagner last year, in what is said to be a deep draft.

So my question is simply would you rather have Penner or the possibility to take a player like:

Player	Team	Position	GP	Goals	Assists	Points
Luke Schenn	Kelowna	D	57	7	21	28
Kyle Beach	Everett	C	60	27	33	60
Zack Boychuk	Lethbridge	C	61	33	39	72

Pretty Lackluster

2008-04-22T19:03:00.002-06:00

It is the second intermission between Washington and Philly and I am bored so I will throw out some stats:

Former Oilers involved in the Pitkanen trade:

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	TOI	+/-
Jason Smith	0	0	0	18:35	-6
Joffery Lupul	0	1	1	15:38	0

Now those are some pretty lackluster numbers. First, Jason Smith is -6 (really -7 since he was on for AO’s goal in the second period). That is pretty brutal for a guy that seemed like a decent shut down d-man while he was in Edmonton. Second, 1 point in 6.6 games for Lupul is atrocious.

*Note* Jason Smith has be on the ice for 16 out of the 23 goals Washington has scored during the series

Think the Flyers would like to have another puck moving d-man during this series?

*Well with Lupul scoring the OT winner throw this one away

The Crescendo

2008-04-20T13:56:00.007-06:00

Its been a rough spring to be a Oilers fan trying to speculate on what moves will be made for next year. By most accounts its looking like we will see the same team next year as we did this year. This does not, however, prevent the rest of the teams from making some interesting moves during the summer. Ottawa and Buffalo stand out as two teams clearly not happy with how their seasons went and may be looking to make a shakeup. Putting trades aside free agency provides some interesting opportunities.

The UFA market is lacking in real block buster talent. You have Hossa who may or may not stay with the Pens but then you have guys like Brian Campbell, Mats Sundin, and Joe Sakic who likely won't be going anywhere (Sundin/Sakic for obvious reasons, Campbell because the Sharks need him too much). As well the Goaltending market is relatively stable (as pointed out by Mirtle) so you won't get a lot of action there, though Emerygate 2008 should provide some interesting dramatics or at least if anything average T.V.

That leaves us with a very interesting crop of R.F.A.'s to be had for an expensive contract and your best draft picks. Names like Bouwmeester, Carter, Green, Weber, Bouchard, Svatos, and yes our dearest Pitkanen fill an impressive list. The supply and demand along with a growing cap tell us that something has to happen. This year could provide with quite a few offer sheets being tendered by teams looking for a quicker rebuild.

Last summer saw the Oilers sign two players to offer sheets, a duty that has made Kevin Lowe the Lex Luthor of the NHL. So now that he has started punching babies and kicking dogs the other 29 GM's can follow suit with much less risk of villainy. The history of offer sheets shows us that it has been around for awhile and if anything Lowe just took it to the next level. A brief history since 1997:

Dustin Penner - 2007 - signed to a 5 year, $21.5 million contract from Edmonton

Accepted and Anaheim received 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008

Thomas Vanek - 2007 - signed to a 7 year, $50 million contract from Edmonton

Buffalo Matched

Ryan Kesler - 2006 - signed a 1 year, $1.9 million contract from Philidelphia

Vancouver Matched

Sergei Fedorov - 1998 - signed a 6 year, $38 million from Carolina

Detroit Matched

Mattias Ohlund - 1997 - signed a 5 year, $10 million contract & $7.5 million signing bonus from Toronto

Vancouver Matched

Chris Gratton - 1997 - signed a 5 year, $16.5 million contract from Tampa Bay

Accepted and Philidelphia got four 1st round picks, traded back to the Flyers for Mikael Renberg and Karl Dykhuis with Flyers picking up part of Renberg's salary

Joe Sakic - 1997 - signed a 3 year, $21 million contract from New York

Colorado Matched

This list is going to grow this summer and I have a feeling teams won't be as willing to match. With a Cap system now there are a few teams who put themselves in prime position to be poached. Remember when New Jersey was having cap problems and snuck out the back door with the Mogiliny deal? They are a prime example of a team that had an RFA (Parise) that could have been had for a slight over pay. More and more GM's are going to be using offer sheets and Brian Burke may be the last man standing in the past.

2008 NHL Attendance Figures

2008-04-15T21:05:00.003-06:00

Well I thought that it would be time to do a follow up to a previous blog on attendance figures so as to compare and contrast the results. So let’s get on with it.

Rank	Team	Games	Total	Average	Percentage
1	Montreal	41	872,193	21,273	100.0
2	Buffalo	41	817,956	19,950	109.4
3	Ottawa	41	812,665	19,821	107.1
4	Philadelphia	41	801,797	19,556	100.3
5	Toronto	41	796,803	19,434	103.4
6	Calgary	41	790,849	19,289	112.4
7	Detroit	41	775,394	18,912	94.2
8	Tampa Bay	41	766,412	18,692	94.6
9	Vancouver	41	763,830	18,630	101.1
10	Minnesota	41	761,288	18,568	102.8
11	NY Rangers	41	746,200	18,200	100.0
12	Dallas	41	739,585	18,038	97.3
13	St. Louis	41	722,021	17,610	83.9
14	San Jose	41	713,863	17,411	99.5
15	Anaheim	41	704,932	17,193	102.6
16	Pittsburg	41	700,137	17,076	100.7
17	Colorado	41	690,552	16,842	93.5
18	Edmonton	41	689,949	16,828	98.4
19	Chicago	41	689,377	16,814	82.0
20	Carolina	41	681,962	16,633	88.8
21	Los Angeles	41	680,877	16,606	92.0
22	Atlanta	41	648,811	15,824	85.3
23	New Jersey	41	638,144	15,564	88.3
24	Washington	41	634,381	15,472	82.9
25	Florida	41	632,881	15,436	80.2
26	Boston	41	630,750	15,384	82.6
27	Nashville	41	611,328	14,910	87.1
28	Columbus	41	607,757	14,823	81.7
29	Phoenix	41	607,638	14,820	84.7
30	NY Islanders	41	559,247	13,640	83.7

So when we look at the statistics a couple of items jump out at me.

The numbers on espn.com must be a little off because the Oilers have played over 100 consecutive sell-outs which means that they obviously played to 100% capacity rather than 98.4%, as well to further prove that the numbers must be a little out that the Flames played to 12% over capacity seems like it must be off.

To reiterate the point the Oilers need a new arena because when you sell out your current one each and every game and you end up 18^th in league average there needs to be a change

Detroit rebounded nicely from 17^th 5 games into the season to 7^th overall.

Colorado however did not rebound as greatly and ended roughly where they began in 17^th place

That all 6 of the Canadian teams played to sellout crowds each and every game of the year. As well, half of the teams with a 100% attendance rate were Canadian teams.

Nashville fans actually decided to show up down the stretch run and pushed their overall attendance above 14,000 so even if Balsillie had been able to complete the purchase, he would not have been able to move the team to Hamilton.

The easiest way for fans in western Canada to see Alexander Ovechkin would be to fly to Washington D.C. and buy one of the available tickets.

When you look at the bottom 10 teams in the league what jumps out? How about that 6 of them are expansion teams or relocations. Which makes up about ½ of the expansion or relocation teams since the early 90s

Well you now know what I think does anything stand out to you?

Caution!

2008-04-06T21:38:00.005-06:00

While taking a management class in University I actually came across a useful piece of information (if you've ever taken one you'll understand how amazing this is). I had a prof once say to me "people are often promoted to their highest level of incompetence" and that statement has stuck with me. Its shockingly true, organizations see someone doing good work at their position so they promote them into the next opening. There is little to no thought put in to whether they would be good at this new job, just that they were good at their last one. This continues to happen until they stop performing well, and then they are stuck in this position. So now you have someone doing a job they are not very good at and their stuck there.

So I plead discretion to not only Oiler fans, but the team itself. There looks to be a high risk of this happening to this team next year, and there is evidence that it happened this year as well. Look at a guy like Dustin Penner who had a great rookie year in Anaheim. He scored 28 goals playing with Getzlaf and Perry so the Oilers paid him big bucks to do more. Except he was no longer playing soft 2nd line minutes, he was playing on the top line against the other teams top checkers. Not only that but he is now playing with Hemsky and Horcoff who rely on speed, which exposed Penner's footspeed.

I will admit that Penner has surpassed most expectations placed upon him and has had a nice second half to the season but I could only imagine what he could have done if the Oilers played him in the role he had previously succeeded in. His struggle is no more obvious than his horrible EV production (EV/60 1.33)

So now I look to next years team and can foresee some problems there. There are young players on this team who are going to have increased expectations on them, whether desereved or not.

Nilsson/Gagner/Cogliano - three players who had outstanding breakout seasons. I can see MacTavish leaning on them more heavily, especially if the top line struggles. These kids did well but did it primarily against soft comp. Playing them against top defensive players could shatter their confidence.

Glencross/Brodziak - two guys who did insanely better than anyone could have imagined. Glencross for a UFA Tarnstrom and Brodziak with their 7th rounder in '03, these guys have overachieved already. Both showed offensive skill this season but lets not kid ourselves, they did it against the other teams worst players.

Gilbert/Grebeshkov - probably the most amazing surprises of the season, specifically Grebeshkov. These players will be relied upon to play top 4 minutes and maybe even top 2 minutes next season. Though they have been successful in this role at times both had terrible stretches. Gilbert showed signs of wearing out for a large stretch towards the end of the season and Grebeskov had a tumultuous first 2/3 of a season. These guys are probably a safer bet to cover their increased roles than the others.

I"m not saying players need to be babied along, I just want people to use some discretion before assuming great things and an immediate payoff from these players. It will be interesting to see who is given the opportunity and who succeeds in this opportunity. Any thoughts?

Playoff Hope?

2008-03-26T15:48:00.006-06:00

Here is the statistical chance according to sportsclubstats.com (click to enlarge).

Basically just run the table and we're in. Don't see what the big deal is.

Best Oiler Rookie?

2008-03-25T14:45:00.010-06:00

With the season winding down it is an appropriate time to start gauging the performances of the future of this hockey team. The guys that I am going to look at are Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert and Curtis Glencross.

Bios

Name	Age	Contract status
Sam Gagner	18	3 year entry level 875,000 per ~750,000 in bonuses
Andrew Cogliano	20	3 year entry level 850,000 per ~ 350,000 in bonuses
Tom Gilbert	25	Pending RFA 835,000 ~ 75,000 in bonuses
Curtis Glencross	26	Pending UFA Group VI 522,500

*all figures from www.nhlscap.com

Let’s look first at some overall statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PP/60	TOI/G
Gagner	12	36	48	2.50	15:33
Cogliano	18	25	43	2.49	13:30
Gilbert	12	19	31	1.09	22:10
Glencross	12	10	22	2.04	11:19

First off, Gagner does lead all these rookies in scoring, but when you break it down into points per 60 minutes Cogliano is right there with him with Glencross only trailing by 0.46. As well, Gilbert is logging an incredible amount of ice time for a rookie rear guard.

Ranking:

Gagner
Cogliano
Gilbert and Glencross

Now let’s look at some even strength statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	EV PP/60	EV TOI/G	+/-
Gagner	8	24	32	2.05	12:39	-19
Cogliano	15	19	34	2.46	10:43	0
Gilbert	10	11	21	0.94	17:24	-8
Glencross	11	9	20	2.04	10:18	+8

Looking at the even strength stats a couple of things jump out, first Cogliano is out producing Gagner even with playing less time. As well Gilbert being a D-man will take a hit in his point production. However the other glaring statistic comes from the +/- category. Gagner’s number is pretty atrocious (lupulesque) whereas, Glencross, Cogliano and Gilbert are significantly better.

Ranking:

Cogliano
Gilbert and Glencross
Gagner

Now let’s look at power play statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	PPP/60	PP TOI/G
Gagner	4	12	16	4.64	2:47
Cogliano	1	5	6	2.33	2:00
Gilbert	2	6	8	3.48	2:12
Glencross	1	1	2	2.15	0:58

Obviously, playing on the top power play unit has helped Gagner pad some of his stats, however, for a rookie scoring 4.64 power play points per 60 minutes is fantastic. In comparison the top power play scorer in the league Alex Kovalev scores at around 8.3 PPP/60 and Jaromir Jagr is scoring at 4.62 PPP/60. Then looking at Gilbert’s numbers he is scoring at 3.48 PPP/60 on the second unit and the leading PP scoring D-Man is Sergei Gonchar scoring at 6.28 PPP/60 while playing 3 minutes of PP time more per game. Not to be overlooked is Glencross scoring at a 2.15 PPP/60 which make me wonder why is Pisani in front of the net on the second line and not Glenner?

Ranking

Gagner
Gilbert
Cogliano and Glencross

Now let’s look at some short handed statistics

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	SH TOI/G
Gagner	0	0	0	0:06
Cogliano	2	1	3	0:47
Gilbert	0	2	2	2:33
Glencross	0	0	0	0:02

Now I know that this seems like an unfair stat to look at since 2 of the 4 players do not kill penalties. However, I think that it would be unfair to Gilbert as he does eat up some serious PK time and that in his limited time Cogliano is a threat when out killing penalties.

Ranking

Gilbert
Cogliano
Gagner and Glencross

Now we will look at some of the more trivial statistics

Player	Hits/60	Blocks/60	TA/60	GA/60	TA GA differential
Gagner	0.89	1.56	1.35	2.24	-0.89
Cogliano	1.33	1.62	1.68	2.66	-0.98
Gilbert	0.81	5.30	0.98	2.49	-1.51
Glencross	8.15	1.02	1.02	1.94	-0.92

TA = Take Away

GA = Give Away

Looking at these statistics a couple of things are noticeable first, Glencross has added an aspect that the Oilers sorely missed for the first 50 games in that he goes out and attempts to hit anything that moves. Second, obviously being a defenseman Gilbert will lead this quartet in blocks as he is the last line between the shooter and Rolie the rebound factory. As well, it is good to see that 3 of the 4 of these rookies are less than 1 in the take away give away differential.

Ranking:

N/A

So now that we have looked at how the rookies stack up against each other in each of the categories I will try to rank their seasons. The one factor that I think is greatly overlooked is the age of the rookies. Does being 25 and 26 detract anything from Gilbert and Glencross as they have had 5 years of extra development over Cogliano and 7 over Gagner? Does being the youngest player in the NHL and making the jump from junior straight to the NHL add anything to what Gagner has accomplished? Is it a good sign that Cogliano showed no second half slow down that has plagued other players making the jump from the NCAA to the NHL? Looking at the arbitrary rankings that I have given after each statistic the break down is as follows:

Gagner:

2 – 1^st place finishes

0 – 2^nd place finishes

2 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 8 points

Cogliano:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 points

Gilbert:

1 – 1^st place finish

2 – 2^nd place finishes

1 – 3^rd place finish

Total = 8 Points

Glencross:

0 – 1^st place finishes

1 – 2^nd place finish

3 – 3^rd place finishes

Total = 5 Points

Looking at this there is a 3 way tie between Gagner, Cogliano, and Gilbert. My vote however, goes to Gagner as when he is 20, 25 or 26 he will be the franchise player of the Oilers.

The MacBlender

2008-03-24T18:33:00.001-06:00

This is Tom Dickson founder of Blendtec. He starts each of his 1 minute spots on youtube with the catch phrase “Will it blend? That is the question.”

Now I have to believe that all of Oilville would agree that Craig MacTavish has done a great job this year getting this team to where it is right now. Through the year, we have seen exponential improvement in aspects of his coaching, especially the development of young players. However, the one aspect of MacT’s coaching that has annoyed me over the past two seasons is constant rearranging of line combinations in the MacBlender.

Like Dickson, MacT at times over the past two seasons seems to put everyone’s name bar into a blender hit speed 3 for a couple seconds and then pull them out. The most recent example of this is the rotating Ales Hemsky and Marc Pouliot on the “top” line. I know that MacT was trying to get Hemmer out of his even strength slump, but replacing Stoll and Penner with Pisani and Reasoner is not how to do it. Taking Hemsky away from the more skill players does not complement his skill set. To be successful Hemsky needs to play with the more offensive minded players. As well, I am sure that some will say that MacT was giving Pouliot a chance to prove himself. But, misusing him is not going to give him a chance. Pouliot is a checker, he is not going to be a sniper or a playmaker, the Oilers drafted him because he was a leader riding on the coat-tails of Sid the Kid. So why set him up for failure playing him in a skill position when that is not or more appropriately will not his game in the NHL?

Now granted that line ups do have to be shuffled every now and again. But, look at what Robert Nilsson has been able to do with regular and consistent line mates instead of being in and out of the line up and playing with different skaters each night.

I think that this year has seen a vast improvement over last in MacT’s coaching ability. I just hope that some aspects continue to change

Puke and Rally

2008-03-18T21:30:00.012-06:00

This is what I think about the Oilers season lately, a crazy New Years Eve party. They are the college freshman with the popped collar and something to prove. This is clearly done by predrinking a "2-6" to get as drunk as he can as fast as he can (see: Kevin Lowe's UFA season), putting on the only expensive shirt he owns to try and make up for the rest of his clothes (see: Souray), then storms into the party as the loudest, cockiest ass clown there. You know, the guy that talks like he's got HUGE game but is probably still trying to get his card swiped (see: anything out of management's mouth in the fall).

It gets to be 45 minutes to midnight and no one can find him until you try to go the bathroom and there he is bobbing for apples. His night is done before the clock strikes and the whole point of the party is wasted on him.

But then he finds it within himself to make sure he doesn't go down like that. The 'puke and rally' ensues. Before you know it he's back with a second wind and partying until he scores with a girl or someone carries his ass home.

So now this team is rallying, and rallying hard. A big win over Phoenix tonight puts them 5 points back with 8 games remaining and in 10th place. Still not an easy feat and we likely won't be watching any playoff games this year but impressive no less. If you had told me at the beginning of the year we would be in this spot I'd have told you that you were crazier than a shit house rat. Hell if you had said that to me weeks ago it would have been the same response.

But here we are with our Ron Low era second half rally to try and take 8th. We did some serious dry heaving on New Years and now we're on a roll. Here's our record in the differing calender years:

2007: 16-20-4
2008: 22-12-1

An impressive difference. In a time when we find out Souray is gone for the season, lose Moreau AGAIN, then throw Horcoff on the heap, this team has decided to play. They have won 10 of their last 12 games and are steamrolling their way to the finish line. We don't have to do a lot of digging to find out why. Our second line's stats since we lost Horcoff on January 29th:

Cogliano 21gp 7-10-17 +9
Nilsson 20gp 4-11-15 +8
Gagner 21gp 6-18-24 -4

Two rookies and a sophomore, and three impressive stat lines. This line has been carrying the mail for this team while MacTavish tries to get Hemsky's line working. As these kids grow older they are going to get impressive. They have given this season something to watch and for that I thank them. This team is only looking up for years to come.

And for the first time in over a calender year I've thought that just maybe...they could pull it off.

Stoll Long?

2008-03-16T14:21:00.007-06:00

Ok I know the title sounds like it came from the Edmonton Sun but hey, I'm allowed a cheezy pun once in a while. That title is probably as bad as Jarret Stoll's season, so its kind of fitting. The man is not the player he was in 05-06 and his play is showing it. Half way through last season he got his puzzle box scrambled and couldn't put the pieces back together. I'm not sure if the concussion problems are to blame but Stoll is not producing. I'll read you his line:

71 gp 11-20-31 EV -22

I don't even know where to start with this guy. His -22 is a team worst, 5 points more (or less?) than the next worst (Reasoner & Gagner). He has only contributed 31 pts offensively, 20 of which have come on the PP. He only has 2 goals in over 800 even strength minutes. That EV point production is Marty Reasoner bad (like actually, i did the math). His shooting % is 6.5 for a guy known for his shot.

There are things Stoll brings to a game. He has won 55% of his draws in each of the past 3 seasons. He has a big right handed shot on the PP which is where all his production comes from. MacTavish has propped him up on power play ice time as he has the most on the team but his production has not earned it. Top 5 PPP/60 on the Oilers:

Hemsky - 5.93
Penner - 4.43
Horcoff - 4.36
Stoll - 4.23
Gagner - 4.19

His numbers are not terrible but they are not great either. For the amount of quality time he gets on the powerplay he should be producing at a higher level. I wonder what is the role Stoll has on this team going forward into next year. He will provide a point shot on the PP, large penalty kill minutes, and absolutely nothing EV wise. So where does that fit into our lineup? I'll take a shot at next season's opening lineup for forwards:

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau- ? -Pisani
Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini

Now clearly this won't likely happen. The 'kid line' may not be able to stay together and I'm assuming Glencross resigns as a UFA. Otherwise these players are all here to stay in some capacitiy (barring trade) so for now I'm going with this. I understand we have to squeeze Torres in there somewhere and I think that just means we wait for Moreau to get injured and he takes that spot. No seriously. Maybe he takes Cogliano's spot and we move Cogs into the 3c spot but I just don't like the idea of stifling Cog's offensive development at such a young age.

To me it looks like Stoll is in line for that 3c spot. Its difficult to put Stoll on a checking line as he clearly lacks skill in that department. But assuming he improves on this I still think there are better options. You do lose his shot on the PP but with Souray returning the loss is minimized. Then there is the issue of salary. Stoll made 2.2 mil this season and I doubt will be taking much of a pay cut. I'm not entirely sure if he requires the 5% raise some players do but I'm sure your spending at least 2 mil to resign him.

Options from within w/ 07-08 salary:

Marc Pouliot (942k) - at some point he needs to establish himself as an NHL player. The offensive first-rounder he was touted as is long gone but if he can find a solid 2 way game and learn to compete this could be his spot. Surrounded by Moreau and Pisani on the wings there is a lot of room to go with the great support. He is an RFA this summer that could be had for less than 1 mil.
Ryan O'Marra (1.2mil) - Former first round pick has struggled this year. Started out in the ECHL and then moved up to the AHL. He hasn't really provided much offence this season but has been improving as the season grows longer. You have to include a guy of O'Marra's background in this discussion. He does have an expensive entry level contract because of his draft status. But the organization has plans for him to play in this exact role ala Mike Peca so his time could be now.

UFA Options w/ 07-08 salary:

Yanic Perrault (1.5 mil) - The perennial face off leader could provide some leadership in the young locker room as well as some defensive play. Does not provide much regarding offence.
Mike Peca (1.315) - On the down slide of his career he still has value. Provides a good amount of offence and can shut down opposing centers well. Not sure what his relationship is to this team after his last term here but I did read a quote where he complimented MacTavish for being intelligent.

There are many others cheaper than Stoll like Curtis Brown, Shean Donovan, Stephane Yelle, etc...

I understand he is young and could improve but his track record has never shown him to be more than a third line player. He parlayed his cup run season to decent contract and has not covered that bet. After drafting him he was groomed as the replacement to Todd Marchant and that is exactly what he is. Its time the Oilers stopped over paying their bottom six and used the money else where. If Stoll is offered any resemblance of a contract as an RFA you make the easy and smart decision and let him walk. Otherwise its a tougher decision, and one that should be thought out.