Dodgy At Best

Why I Love Horse Racing, Reason #734

2009-05-12T14:08:00.000-07:00

From Steve Haskin's wonderful Kentucky Derby wrapup story, here's trainer Dick Mandella {who trained MINE THAT BIRD for 10 days last fall} talking about what makes the horse game special:

“But seriously, that horse looked fabulous. The trainer has done a great job with him. Just because a trainer doesn’t have a big stable doesn’t mean he’s not a good horseman. This goes to show what someone who has a lot of time to spend with one horse can do when that horse has talent. That’s the beauty of this game. Everybody’s got a chance. We don’t promote enough how equal and how fair this game can be. It has very little prejudice. This is the only business where a sheikh or member of a royal family will lean down to some minimum wage hotwalker or groom and say, ‘What do you think?’"

Well said, reminds me of why going to the Kentucky Derby is so much damn fun.

Get Your Brackets Right, Get 'Em Tight

2009-03-16T13:11:00.000-07:00

Just because I'm too busy to blog these days doesn't mean that you shouldn't be able to take advantage of the fact that for many years I was an absolute college basketball nerd/wonk and as such have amassed some data that might help you tweak your brackets for maximum probability that you might crush the office pool. Plus it gave me a chance to work in a Ying Yang Twinz/Bubba Sparxxx reference with the post title {brackets brackets brackets brackets brackets everywhere...}.

So here is my bracket wonk post from last year, updated to include the 2008 tournament. Enjoy and good luck...

This is ~~a little~~ extremely wonky, so some of you will be interested and some will not, but what the hell. As a former hard core college basketball junkie and wonk, I figured the best I can offer this year is to share some of this info with you, as it may help you tweak your bracket before you submit it.

Disclaimer 1: this data should never be used to fill out a bracket; your bracket should always be filled out first using whatever methodology you use. This data can be helpful in perhaps going back and tweaking a few picks here and there to ensure that what you picked falls with the normal range over time of what has actually occurred, so that you don't submit something whose odds of happening are minuscule, thus reducing your chances of taking your co-workers money.

Disclaimer 2: As you will see when we get into the numbers below, 2007 was quite an anomaly; what in horse racing handicapping might be referred to as a "throw away" race because its result was such an outlier compared to the rest of the data. Anyhow, it can be looked at two ways: (1) that it makes all the rest of the data null and void and shows that truly anything can happen, or (2) that it was an anomaly and that over time the trends of the rest of the historical data will largely hold true.

Now then...

FIRST ROUND

First Round Upsets

Year	15v2	14v3	13v4	12v5	11v6	10v7
2008	0	0	2	2	1	1
2007	0	0	0	0	2	0
2006	0	1	1	2	2	2
2005	0	1	1	1	1	1
2004	0	0	0	2	0	1
2003	0	0	1	1	1	2
2002	0	0	1	3	2	1
2001	1	0	2	2	2	2
2000	0	0	0	0	1	2
1999	0	1	1	2	0	4
1998	0	1	1	1	1	3
1997	1	1	0	1	0	2
1996	0	0	1	2	1	2
1995	0	2	1	1	1	1
1994	0	0	0	2	1	2
1993	1	0	1	1	1	0
1992	0	1	1	1	0	2
1991	1	1	1	1	2	2

Now look over your brackets and just compare the numbers that you have with this historical data. There is no need to adjust anything unless what you have is waaaaay out of range. I just try to make sure that I'm not way out of bounds. 2007 was very unusual in that it was only the 2nd time that all of the 2, 3, 4 and 5 seeds advanced to the 2nd round since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, so in 22 of the past 24 years there have been upsets over 5, 4, 3, and 2 seeds and we should expect them in any given year.

As most folks know, a 16 has never beaten a 1 seed. A 2 seed has only lost 4 times in the last 17 years, and never 2 in the same year, so for example if you have three different 2 seeds losing to 15 seeds, then you might want to adjust your picks and play the percentages. The 5/12 games get alot of publicity, but don't forget that a 13 seed beats a 4 seed more years than not, and the 11 seeds do pretty well against the 6 seeds. The 8v9 games are not listed because to me a 9 seed beating and 8 seed isn't really an upset. Again, just be sure that you are somewhere in the ballpark, or even on the edge or just a little out of bounds, but if you have all four 11 seeds beating the 6 seeds you may want to adjust. Hell it may happen this year, but if I was in an office pool I would want to maximize my percentages against the others and save the totally wacky-ass bullshit for talk at the sportsbar.

I typically compare my filled out bracket to these historical numbers to make sure that I am in/near the realm of what has happened on each matchup column.

SECOND ROUND

#1 Seed Losing In The Second Round

Year	Number
2008	0
2007	0
2006	0
2005	0
2004	2
2003	0
2002	0
2001	0
2000	2
1999	0
1998	1
1997	0
1996	1
1995	0
1994	0
1993	0
1992	1
1991	0

The recent conversion to the "pod" system has been especially kind to #1 seeds, as it has typically resulted in them playing in their home areas on quasi home courts rather than neutral courts, thus giving them an even bigger advantage over the underdog 8 or 9 seeds trying to upset them. All four 1 seeds get through to the 2nd weekend more often than not- in fact, they are on a 16 in a row streak in 2nd round games and have won 30 of the last 32 such encounters. So if you have all of your #1 seeds winning in round two then there is no need to worry. But if you have one, or even have the stones to pick two #1 seeds to lose to the winner of the 8v9 game then the data says you are not crazy but simply extremely bold, and to rock on with your bad self. If you have 3 or all 4 #1 seeds going out in the 2nd round, you may want to think about adjusting your picks.

#2 Seed Losing In The Second Round

Year	Number
2008	2
2007	1
2006	2
2005	2
2004	2
2003	2
2002	1
2001	2
2000	3
1999	3
1998	1
1997	2
1996	0
1995	0
1994	1
1993	2
1992	1
1991	1

On the other hand, you can clearly see that the #2 seeds fare much worse than the #1 seeds in round two. I won't get into why I think this is so, but you may want to think about having a 2 seed eat it in the second round, as all four haven't made it through to the Sweet Sixteen in 13 years, and that has only happened twice in the past 18 years. There's more on this below, but I tend to pick either what I perceive to be the weakest 2 seed to get upset here, or the one that I think has the worst potential matchup here.

THE SWEET SIXTEEN

Seeds Below 5 In the Sweet 16

Year	Number	Seeds
2008	4	7, 10, 12, 12
2007	2	6, 7
2006	5	6,7,7,11,13
2005	6	6,6,6,7,10,12
2004	5	6,7,8,9,10
2003	4	6,7,10,12
2002	5	6,8,10,11,12
2001	6	5,6,7,10,11,12
2000	8	6,6,6,7,8,8,10,10
1999	7	6,6,10,10,10,12,13
1998	5	6,6,8,10,13
1997	6	6,6,6,10,10,14
1996	3	6,8,12
1995	3	6,6,6
1994	4	6,9,10,12
1993	5	6,6,7,7,12
1992	5	6,6,7,9,12
1991	3	10,11,12

Look at your brackets and count up the number of seeds below #5 seeds that you have in the Sweet Sixteen. 2007 was extremely chalky with top seeds advancing, and only 2 seeds below 5 made it to the 2nd weekend. In 17 of the last 18 years this number has been between 3 and 8, so ideally you would want to be in this range, but if you have 2 or 9 then I wouldn't worry too much. I also have listed the breakdown of the seeds that advanced each year in addition to the number of teams that made it this far.

The main trend to notice in this set of data is how well the 6 seeds do, as well as the winner of the 7v10 game {more on that in the next section though}. Historically 6 seeds have had success in the 2nd round against the winner of the 3v14 game, which by and large boils down to the fact that 6 seeds often upset 3 seeds in the 2nd round. In fact, every single year since 1991 at least one 6 seed makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, and often more than one do- the vast majority of their 2nd round wins come over 3 seeds. If I didn't have any 6 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen I would strongly consider going back and picking at least one of them to make it to the second weekend. The trick, of course, is picking the right one...

Bottom line at this point you don't want your bracket to be too chalky {you have all the top seeds advancing}, nor do you want it to be such an upset-o-rama that it is way outside the norm.

Double Digit Seeds In The Sweet 16

Year	Number	Seeds
2008	3	10, 12, 12
2007	0	n/a
2006	2	11, 13
2005	2	10,12
2004	1	10
2003	2	10,12
2002	3	10,11,12
2001	3	10,11,12
2000	2	10,10
1999	5	10,10,10,12,13
1998	2	10,13
1997	3	10,10,14
1996	1	12
1995	0	n/a
1994	2	10,12
1993	1	12
1992	1	12
1991	3	10,11,12

Look again at your Sweet 16: do you have any double digit seeds {10 seed or lower} in there? Again, 2007 was an anomaly but even including it, in 16 of the last 18 years at least 1 double digit seed has made it to the 2nd weekend.

Notice the trend here of how well the 10 seeds are represented. What does this mean? It means that if a 10 seed beats a 7 seed and matches up with a 2 seed in the 2nd round, that 2 seed should be on upset alert, because in 11 of the last 18 years at least one such 10 seed has beaten a 2 seed and gone through to the Sweet 16. For all the hype that the 12 seeds get in beating the 5 seed in the first round {the media always point out the the "classic 12 over 5 upset"}, the 10 seeds do even better than the 12 seeds in the 2nd round. Also, if you look back up at the data set before this one, and look at all of the 7 and 10 seeds, that tells you that the winner of the 7v10 game has a great shot of getting past the 2 seed and onto the Sweet Sixteen. I always pick what I think the weakest 2 seed is to lose {or if I think a 7/10 winner is especially strong, or if a 2 seed is a team that I hate and really would love to see go out}.

ELITE EIGHT

Seeds Below #3 In Elite Eight

Year	Number	Seeds
2008	1	10
2007	0	n/a
2006	2	4, 11
2005	4	4, 5, 6, 7
2004	2	7, 8
2003	1	7
2002	3	5, 10, 12
2001	2	6, 11
2000	5	5, 6, 7, 8, 8
1999	3	4, 6, 10
1998	1	8
1997	2	6, 10
1996	2	4, 5
1995	2	4, 4
1994	1	9
1993	1	7
1992	3	4, 6, 6
1991	2	4, 10

Many beginners get to this point and have all #1 and #2 seeds. This is starting to sound like a broken record, but 2007 was an anomaly as it was the only time in the last 18 years that no team below a 3 seed made the Elite 8. Check your bracket for the number of teams seeded 4 or below in your final eight. You probably should have at least one, and if the data is an accurate predictor, not more than 5. Personally, I would be comfortable with between 1-3.

FINAL FOUR

Seeds Below #2 In Final Four

Year	Number	Seeds
2008	0	n/a
2007	0	n/a
2006	3	3, 4, 11
2005	2	4, 5
2004	1	3
2003	2	3, 3
2002	1	5
2001	1	3
2000	3	5, 5, 8
1999	1	4
1998	2	3, 3
1997	1	4
1996	2	4, 5
1995	1	4
1994	1	3
1993	0	n/a
1992	2	4, 6
1991	1	3

The last two years were rare, but it's too early to decide if this is a new trend or a blip in the traditional data, which shows that in 15 of the last 18 years at least one of the Final Four participants has been lower than a 2 seed. Also in 3 of the last 6 years at least 2 of the spots have gone to 3 seeds or lower. I would just make sure that you didn't have all four slots being 3 seeds or worse.

The Seeds Of The Final Four Participants

Year	Seeds	Sum of Seed #s
2008	1, 1, 1, 1	4
2007	1, 1, 2, 2	6
2006	2, 3, 4, 11	20
2005	1, 1, 4, 5	11
2004	1, 2, 2, 3	8
2003	1, 2, 3, 3	9
2002	1, 1, 2, 5	9
2001	1, 1, 2, 3	7
2000	1, 1, 5, 8	15
1999	1, 1, 1, 4	7
1998	1, 2, 3, 3	9
1997	1, 1, 1, 4	7
1996	1, 1, 4, 5	11
1995	1, 2, 2, 4	9
1994	1, 2, 2, 3	8
1993	1, 1, 1, 2	5
1992	1, 2, 4, 6	13
1991	1, 1, 2, 3	7

Last year I wrote: "If you have all four of the #1 seeds in your Final Four, then you are brave, for it has never happened."

Well, now it's happened. On the other hand, 2006 was the first time ever that none of the #1 seeds made it, so you never know.

I have seen the final four seeds wonked thusly: add up the seed #s of your final four members. In 15 of the last 18 years the number would be between 6 and 13, with wacky year 2000 having a high number of 15 and 2006's wackiness being an extreme outlier with at total of 20.

THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Seeds Of The Championship Game Participants

Year	Seeds
2008	1, 1
2007	1, 1
2006	2, 3
2005	1, 1
2004	2, 3
2003	2, 3
2002	1, 5
2001	1, 2
2000	1, 5
1999	1, 1
1998	2, 3
1997	1, 4
1996	1, 4
1995	1, 2
1994	1, 2
1993	1, 1
1992	1, 6
1991	2, 3

Basically, the data says that you should have at least one #1 or #2 seed in the title game. If you have a 4 seed against a 6 seed here, then I applaud you for your moxie but the numbers say you won't win your office pool. In fact, then numbers say anything 3 v 3 or lower will not happen even though that sounds pretty feasible.

Seed Of The NCAA Champion

Year	Seed
2008	1
2007	1
2006	3
2005	1
2004	2
2003	3
2002	1
2001	1
2000	1
1999	1
1998	2
1997	4
1996	1
1995	1
1994	1
1993	1
1992	1
1991	2

The outlier here is one of my favorite teams ever, the 1997 Arizona Wildcats, who amazingly beat three different #1 seeds en route to their championship, making them the only team to ever accomplish that feat and establishing a record that can only be equaled but never surpassed. Every other year the champion has been a 1, 2, or 3 seed, with a 1 seed winning it all in 12 of the last 18 years.

So there it is, by the numbers. Again, I am not saying to fill out your brackets to meet these requirements, but to fill out your brackets and then cross check them against this data, which should not be viewed as requirements but as a guideline or baseline or whatever you like.

I like this information because I find that it helps to know basically the number of upsets that likely will happen in each round. The trick, of course, is choosing where to pick your upsets and where to have the favorites advance. That, my friends, is what separates the office pool contributors from the office pool collectors.

Happy Brackets and best of luck. Unless you have Dook winning the national title that is - then I hope that you fail miserably.

Cocktail Party 1, Athens-Clarke County School System Nil

2008-10-31T12:27:00.000-07:00

As someone who gets his rocks off when countries literally shut down for World Cup soccer matches, or when Trinidad & Tobago declared a national holiday the day after simply qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, or that all of the schools in Louisville, KY are closed the day before the Kentucky Derby every year, I am beyond amused by this:

Tired of struggling to find enough teachers to staff its classrooms on the Friday before the annual Georgia-Florida football game, the Clarke County (Ga.) School District -- which includes Athens, home of the University of Georgia -- decided to cancel school altogether.

According to area media reports, 137 teachers last year called in sick the day before the big game, and the district was able to find only 113 substitutes. School administrators studied the absences over the years and found a pattern -- almost twice as many teachers call in sick the Friday before the annual game in Jacksonville, Fla., about 360 miles away, than on an average school day.

So the district decided to call off school the Friday before the game. And Clarke County is not alone; the schools in nearby Madison and Oglethorpe counties also are taking the day off.

First reaction: HOLY SHIT that means that damn near 70 teachers in ACC call in sick on any given Friday throughout the school year? {insert joke about Georgia public education here}.

I remember when we were in college the one of the main factors for determining if any professor was to be placed in the COOL or TOOL category was whether they canceled class on the Friday before the Cocktail party or if they made a big stink about attendance that day being mandatory, as we made the road trip every year with thousands of other students and therefor weren't going to be there either way.

Georgia fans will love this bit of news. And Georgia Tech fans will too.

Feel Good Friday: Gator Hater Edition

2008-10-31T11:06:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow is the World's Largest Cocktail Party 2008. As such, it's time to go all Big Tymers and everybody get your hate on, everybody everybody get your hate on, what?

1 Year Ago

2008-10-31T10:12:00.000-07:00

"Excuse me, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Is anybody watching this?
HELP!!! HELP!!! HELP!!!
Are you kidding?
What have I done?
Get away from me man
Get off of me!!!
What did I do???!?
What did I do???!?
What did I do???!?
What did I do???!?
I'm just laying here on my back!
Somebody help me!!!

13 carries, -15 yards rushing.
Sacked 5x all year going into game, sacked 6x by UGA.

*All kidding at Tebow's expense aside, this was one of the most fucked up things I have ever seen happen in America, and I do not condone it being done to any citizen unless that citizen is Dick Cheney.

Argentina Won. It Was Hot. And Anticlimatic.

2008-10-27T09:20:00.000-07:00

might as well tie off this knot from the previous post...

2008 Olympic Men's Final
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria.

The Olympic final never lived up to its epic potential, although that was down to the organizers rather than the teams. The Beijing organizers really wanted to have the final in "The Birdsnest", even though each & every one of the other matches of the tournament were played in other stadia. The only time they could squeeze it in between all of the track & field events was at noon local time, and the temperature on the field was pushing 114 degrees. This of course after every other match in the whole tournament was played at night in the relatively cooler temperatures. Dumbasses.

It was so unbelievably hot, that for the first time in history, FIFA took official timeouts halfway through each of the halves so that the players could rest & drink liquids. Crazy. As you can imagine, this took quite a bit away from the game. Add to that a temporary pitch which was laid just for this game in the infield track- and which was a bit dodgy- and the game was pretty damn disappointing.

If it was a fight you might be able to say that Nigeria just shaded it on points, especially in the first half. But it wasn't a fight, and Argentina scored a goal thanks to 1) a great through pass by Messi and 2) an absolutely inexplicable fuckup by the Nigerian goalkeeper where he came all the way out of his goal, stranded himself in no man's land, and allowed Di Maria to easily chip it over his head into the goal. It was a good finish, but never would have been possible without the keeper's moment of madness.

So that was that. It was especially foolish of the organizers to play the match in the noonday sun after the series of collapsing deaths in soccer in 2007; fortunately no one collapsed.

Argentina can basically now claim to be a youth soccer dynasty. In just the last 4 years they have won back to back Olympic {under 23} Gold Medals in 2004 & 2008, as well as back to back FIFA Under 20 World Cups in 2005 & 2007. At this point, with the incredible young talent they have, in addition to the ridiculous talent in their senior squad, they are in my mind the clear favorites to lift the 2010 World Cup.

It's 1996 {and 2005} All Over Again

2008-08-21T17:19:00.000-07:00

Olympic Gold Medal Match
Argentina-Nigeria
Friday August 22nd 9 pm PST

The Olympic gold medal match will be worth watching if you can find it among NBC's ever confusing and frustratingly vague television schedule. The game is Saturday at midnight Eastern/9 pm Friday PST. Recent practice has been to show the matches "live" on the east coast on Telemundo and then again 3 hours later for the West Coast, also on Telemundo; if that holds then it will be right at midnight in the East and then shown also at midnight out West 3 hours later {don't even get me started on the stupidity of NBC showing their "live" coverage on 3 hour tape delay on the West Coast- it's 37 flavors of stupid and irritating}.

Now then, the playoffs have been very good thusfar. Argentina squaked by Netherlands 2-1 in extra time in the quarterfinals, a great match. Cameroon took Brasil to extra time 0-0, despite being a man down, before succumbing 0-2 in extra time, Nigeria beat African rivals Ivory Coast 2-0, and amazingly massive underdog Belgium beat Italy, in in incredible fashion- they went a man down and a goal down in the 18th minute, then battled back to 1-1, fell behind 1-2 with only 16 minutes left, then scored 2 goals to beat favored Italy 3-2, all while playing with 10 men for 70+ minutes.

The semifinals the other morning weren't as close but were still entertaining nonetheless. Nigeria hammered Belgium 4-1, and played amazingly well- they could have easily scored 6 or 7 goals- it was something to watch. Then El Super Classico de Sudamerica: Brasil-Argentina, with significant star power for an Olympic game: Brasil had Ronaldinho, Anderson, Pato, Jo, and others while Argentina boasted a ridiculous midfield of Riquelme, Messi, Mascherano, and Gago. Just last summer Brasil shocked Argentina 3-0 in the final of Copa America after playing decidedly average the whole tournament while Argentina played incredible soccer. Not this time. Argentina won 3-0 and deservedly so. Riquelme. Messi & co weren't as flustered by Brasil's physical play as they were in last year's final, and Brasil were pretty poor offensively- the better team on the day certainly won.

So it's down to Argentina and Nigeria, a repeat of the 1996 Olympic final in Athens, GA's Sanford Stadium when an 18 year old named Kanu captained Nigeria to the gold medal and Nigeria came from behind twice to win 3-2 on a stoppage time goal to became the first African team to win an international competition at something above the youth level.

Kanu celebrates on the hallowed turf of Sanford Stadium, 1996

More recently, these two teams met in the final of the 2005 Under 20 World Cup, with Argentina winning 2-1 as Messi drew and then converted penalties for both Argentine goals. Since the 2008 Olympic tournament is an Under 23 tournament {each team gets 3 exemptions to this rule} many of the players on both teams will be the same from that U20 World Cup final 3 years ago. In fact, Argentina will start 5 players from this match and Nigeria a whopping 8. Side note- an interesting matchup to watch out for will be Messi v Nigerian centreback Dele Adeleye; Adeleye conceded both penalties against Messi in that final.

Argentina are also defending champions, having won the 2004 tournament in Athens, Greece with a perfect record of winning every match they played in. So we'll either see a back to back championship for Argentina or another Olympic championship for Nigeria, which would be their 2nd in the last 4 Olympics and 3 of the last 4 for Africa {Cameroon 2000}.

Surely Argentina are favorites with Riquelme, Messi, Mascherano, Gago, and company, not to mention the fact that they won the Under 20 World Cup in both 2007 and 2005, but Nigeria are certainly capable of beating them if they play well. Hopefully the match can live up to it's potential as a classic showdown.

Enjoy, if you can find it on your TV...

Ils Sont Arrivés

2008-08-14T09:15:00.000-07:00

The only thing better than getting my eight 2008 ASU season tickets in the mail yesterday...

... was also getting a coupon for a free Chick Fil A sandwich at any CFA in the state of Arizona.

Although, really & truly, it should be 1 coupon per season ticket, not 1 coupon per order. No hay problema, ASU ticket office, you can send me my remaining 7 free Chick Fil A coupons to the house, or you can leave them for me at Will Call- either way.

35 days from tonight and we'll be in the desert.

Let the posting of superflous tickets to all other ASU games on Craigslist for 70% off begin!

Champions League: It's Like Lotto, You Gotta Be In It To Win It*

2008-08-13T11:03:00.001-07:00

*annual obscure Beastie Boys sample reference when talking about CL play in games: check.

You know how the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament play in game is totally lame and no one really watches it or cares who wins?

Well imagine if March Madness {go ahead, Viacom, sue me} only had 32 teams, and there were several play in games to get to the official tourney of the final 32. That would be much more interesting and have several pretty good teams in it and some matchups worth watching.

Well, that is kind of like the Champions League, which has 32 teams each year, but several levels of qualifying to get to that final 32. The top teams in the top leagues qualify automatically, filling 16 of the 32 spots in the main event, and others have to qualify at some point. The final round of play in ties, aka the 3rd qualifying round, starts today, and pits 32 teams against each other to fill out the other 16 spots. This round features lots of big name clubs- Barcelona, Juventus, Liverpool, Arsenal, etc. The seeding usually favors the big clubs by pitting them against lesser competition, but anything can happen in these matchups that fall somewhere on the David-Goliath scale. For the Davids it is a chance for glory, knocking off a big name, and getting to the 'promised land' of the CL proper- not to mention a ton load of cash. For the Goliaths, it is viewed as more of a must win, both to be in the competition that they are expected to be in, and for the fact that the cash windfall is seen as more of a necessity than a bonus- hard to keep up with the Joneses without the cash and just being in the competition. The estimated cash windfall for a club who makes it is between 20-30 million pounds, so making it versus not making it is a pretty big deal on more than just the prestige front.

That being said, there are also some pretty good matchups of semi big time clubs: Schalke 04 v Atletico Madrid for example, or Sparta Prague-Panathinaikos.

In still other matchups two lesser known teams matchup with 1 guaranteed to get through to the main event. AaB v FBK Kaunas? I watch/follow alot of soccer, and I've never heard of either of these teams. Whomever wins that one will be the team that all the big clubs hope is drawn in their group in the group stage of the main event.

Anyhow, these teams are basically all in a home & home play in situation to make the Champions League Proper. The games are today and the return legs are in 2 weeks.

**Update- final scores***
Fiorentina 2-0 Slavia Prague {yesterday}
Spartak Moscow 1-4 Dinamo Kiev
Levski Sofia 0-1 BATE Borisov
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb
Anorthosis Famagusta 3-0 Olympiakos
AaB 2-0 FBK Kaunas
Galatasaray 2-2 Steaua Bucharest
Sparta Prague 1-2 Panathinaikos
SK Brann 0-1 Marseille
Schalke 04 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Twente Enschende 0-2 Arsenal
Juventus 4-0 Artmedia Petrzalka
Partizan Belgrade 2-2 Fenerbache
Standard Liege 0-0 Liverpool
Guimaraes 0-0 FC Basel
Barcelona 4-0 Wisla Krakow

So there it is. I know I'm pulling for BATE Borisov to make it to the Champions League proper on their name alone.

You can follow all the action at UEFA's official site. BBC's always entertaining live commentary of Twente-Arsenal and Liege-Liverpool here. Or there's always Soccernet if you like your live commentary of the "Throw in- attacking" variety.

PV4. Just Because

2008-08-12T09:58:00.000-07:00

{to Volare}:

VI-EIRA! Oh oh oh oh
VI-EIRA! Oh oh oh oh
He comes from Senegal
He plays for Arsenal

Wasn't feeling it today at work and came across this. After watching it, I am whole again.

PV4. Legend.

I hate that his leaving Arsenal barely preceded the proliferation of the YouTubes, cause his song was the greatest, and it always gave me chills to hear 38,000 people screaming it at the top of their lungs, and gave me mega chills when 5,000 travelling Gooners made it ring around Old Trafford loud and strong after he was wrongfully sent off by the cheating fakery of Ruud Van Nistelcunt {nice penalty, fuckface}. If PV4 had played 1 more year at Arsenal, there would be dozens of vids of his song on the internet. Oh well, you can catch a tiny glimpse of it here at the 3.20 mark and you can hear it start to ring around Highbury while they await PV4 to lead Arsenal out of the tunnel against ManUtd here.

That's it. Hopefully one day someone will post some proper versions. Until then we'll have to get by on the weird ass 1998 dancehall/euro techno version by The Away Boyz.

Feel Good Friday: I'm With Stoopid Edition

2008-08-08T15:05:00.000-07:00

Good news: Slightly Stoopid's new album came out 2 weeks ago.

Great news: I'm going to the Slightly Stoopid concert tomorrow night at the famous Greek Theatre on the UC campus in Bezerkeley {Pepper and Sly & Robbie opening, and maybe even Expendables}.

Anyhow, here's my favorite of their latest batch of tunes, called "No Cocaine". Surely it's the stoner anthem of Summer 2008.

And as a little bonus, here is my favorite song of 2007, "2 am", which they performed live last August at the Summer Haze concert at the Greek with G Love & Ozomatli which I attended with The Hit and perhaps one day I'll write about and post some pics- it was pretty epic.

Both tunes are perfect laid back summer tunes, whether you're a total stoner or not {I'm not but I love their shit}.

Gotta rock the Kanu circa 2000 Arsenal kit tomorrow night; last spring in Petaluma the horn player wore a Zidane France jersey, which was oh so sweet, but then in midsummer up in Sacramento dude wore a freaking Spurs kit- sooooo weak. I had on Kanu that night but couldn't get close enough to talk shit or have him see it. Oh well, it's just nice to know that dude is a footy fan.

Have a great weekend, whether it involves laid back songs about ganja weed or not.

Peace.

Duuuuuude... Sergio Ramos Identity Revealed

2008-08-08T11:18:00.000-07:00

While watching Euro2008 this summer something bothered me, as it had for the past 2 or 3 seasons. Every time I saw Spain's Sergio Ramos, I knew that he looked very familiar, just like someone else, but I never could put my finger on it, and as a lookalikeophile, it really bothered me.

Fortunately, a few days after Euro2008 friend and commenter formerly known as A10 {~~dude , now that Adriano is no longer with InterMilan you'll need a new name~~ ummm, nevermind} sent me an email and suddenly everything was clear. Crystal clear.

Sergio Ramos is Mitch Kramer{played by Wiley Wiggins} from the movie Dazed & Confused. Don't believe me? Regardez:

That's Mitch on the right in the Adidas tee

That's Sergio now, in his Real Madrid jersey.

QEDMF- I rest my case.

Not Dead.

2008-08-07T14:34:00.001-07:00

One of the beautiful things about naming your blog "Dodgy At Best" is that people can't really say shit to you. You think my writing sucks? Well just look at the title- it's right there and as clear a disclaimer as one could ask for.

Haven't updated in over a month? Again, all you have to do is look up to the top of the page. Dodgy. At. Best. Duh.

Work has been mondo insano lately, but at long last it finally appears as if the powers that be are going to once again staff the office at the necessary level to make remotely possible keeping up with the work load. Plus I'm moving, and a bunch of other shit going on as well.

So once the cavalry comes to the rescue I should once again have a little free time to frolic about here on a more regular basis.

Really hoping that is sooner than later, I'd really like to knock out the "Tim Tebow: Myth vs. Reality" piece that I've been wanting to write since mid-last season. One can hope...

I resolve to be back in some form or fashion in the next week or two. Until then, I hope all is well with the 4 of you who still look over here from time to time.

Euro2008 Final Open Thread

2008-06-29T11:42:00.001-07:00

Spain-Germany
11.45 a.m. PST ABC

Before the tournament I picked Spain over Germany in the final, and based on what I've seen there's no reason to back off that now.

Germany has been the best team in this tournament on scoring goals from crosses from the wings and volleyed or headed goals, so watch for them to try to get wide and send in crosses and continue their same winning strategy.

Spain will have more possession and try to win with running and quick passing. Germany are very organized at the back and keep their shape, so they will have looked at the Italy-Spain tape and seen that the best way to defend Spain is to deny them space in their final third.

Enjoy. Viva Espana!

***Update***

Spain 1-0 Germany.

Well deserved. They pretty much dominated. Senna was player of the game for Spain and for the tournament as well. He beautifully protected Spain's back 4, their 1 weakness, and was outstanding at link up and transitional play from defense to attack. Would have been well deserved if he finished off that great move and nearly goal that he missed my 2 inches.

Very happy for Spain; I've always dug them. Sucks that racist curmudgeon Aragones was the one who led them to their first title in 40 years, but you can't have it all.

World Cup 2010 qualifying is under way and the finals will be here before you know it- 24 months isn't that long a time period.

I'm still hoping to go climb Kilimanjaro in 2010 then jam over to South Africa for a week or two to soak it all in {although if the dollar keeps going at this rate there's probably no way I can afford it}. Anyone wanna go?

Semifinals Open Thread

2008-06-25T10:01:00.000-07:00

Germany-Turkey
Wed. 6/25 11.45 a.m. PST ESPN

Simply stated, Turkey are up against it. Several key players are injured: Nihat, Emre Belozoglu, Servet Cetin, Emre Gungor, and Tumer Metin. Adding insult to injury is that 4 more players are suspended: first choice goalkeeper Volcan, Tuncay, Arda, and Asik. This is extremely harsh as I detailed in the previous post, and leaves Turkey in all likelihood with only 13 outfield players to choose from. Sucks, because a full strength Turkey against Germany would probably be an awesome spectacle to watch, but as is it doesn't look like a game that will be very competitive unless Germany play as poorly as they did against Croatia earlier in the tournament, which doesn't seem too likely.

Turkey have nothing to lose, they are already the darlings of this competition, having played 390+ minutes of soccer thusfar and only being in the lead for TWO MINUTES, yet here they are in the semifinal. As such, I hope Fatih Terim has them attack and try to win, even if it is a bit of a Braveheart battle charge, but it seems the only chance for success. Sitting back and defending, allowing Germany to come at them for the whole match looks to me like it will result in certain defeat, so why not go forward and try to attack and win valiantly? Even if they fail they will be lauded for trying, and given what they are up against they will still be seen as triumphant heroes if they go out this way.

Germany have a full compliment of players to choose from and truth be told, given the circumstances, it will be an absolute shock if they don't win.

Germany 3-2 Turkey. Final.
One of the best games that you'll ever sort of get to see. Turkey did indeed go Bravehart at the beginning, raising their weapons, screaming "FREEEEDOOOMMMM!!!!" and attacking all out in damn the torpedoes- full speed ahead fashion, and they dominated the first 20 minutes, at one point outshooting Germany 6 to 1 and pretty much pinning them in their own end. Germany were lucky when a Turkish rocket shot blasted off the crossbar after about 10 minutes; then in the 22nd minute a funky spinning lob also hit the crossbar, came back to Boral who hit it in off Mad Jens {formerly} of North London. Kind of a fuckup by Mad Jens, although in his defense that ball was spinning as much as any ball you'll ever see, both when it came back off the post and then was shot at him in mishit fashion; the slow mishit and the spin seemed to throw him off. Either way the Turks were 1-0 up, and deservedly so.

Of course after leading only 2 minutes of the tournament to that point, out of 400+ minutes, they were able to hold onto their lead for all of 4 minutes when Podolski sent in a sweet cross and Sweinsteiger has an even sweeter one touch finish giving Turkish keeper Rustu no chance. Turkey then went back to dominating the latter stages of the first half, and it was 1-1 at half and very much game on.

One note- there was a nasty collision at the end of the half between Germany's Rolfes and Turkey's Akman in which they both went for a header and instead smashed their heads together, Rolfes in his forehead and Akman on the top/back of his head. Both men were bleeding pretty good and started getting attention from the trainers. It wasn't pretty. So at one point the TV camera focuses on the Turkish trainer trying to get a gauze or bandage on Akman's head, but it's tricky since he has a full head of hair and the cut is on the top of his head int he back, and the trainer is having trouble, so he grabs a fucking staple gun, places it on dude's skull, and pulls the trigger. Unreal. Not only did Akman just nut up and take it, he kept playing until he was substituted in the 81st minute of the match. Rolfes was worked on until halftime and then substituted at the beginning of the second half. So Ayhan Akman, you win the Euro2008 Hard Nut Award, hands down. Another in a never ending string of evidence refuting the soccer player are fairy sissy boys argument. 1 in 3 NFL players would have been crying for their mommies...

In the 2nd half Germany started to regain control, and you got the sense that the undermanned Turks were running out of steam just a bit going forward, but still holding out defensively pretty well. The big talking point came when Lahm was fouled on the edge of the box and the referee did not give a penalty or even a foul. Replays clearly showed that it was a foul; whether or not it was inside the edge of the box or just outside was less clear, but Germany should have gotten at least a free kick on the edge of the box, albeit out to the side.

Midway through the second half things got shitty, as the world television feed went out due to a lightning strike near the stadium. Being that the ESPN commentators were in a studio in Bristol and not at the match, they couldn't even provide play by play. After several minutes they got the feed back, but then it went out again, in about the 72nd minute. Then we find out that GErmany scored in the 79th minute from a Klose header, but still no pictures. Then right as the picture is being restored in the 86th minute, we see the Turkish bench erupting in joyous celebration and learn that amazingly Turkey has made it 2-2 with only 4 minutes left. Replays showed that Sobri totally used Lahm on the wing and then crossed low and hard which was poked in at the near post- a great goal. Replays showed Klose's goal which was a good header, although Turkish goalkeeper Rustu certainly helped by coming way off his line to get the ball but never making it, leaving himself in no man's land and the goal open for Klose. So 2-2 and it looked like extra time until Philip Lahm, his jockstrap still laying back at the other end of the field, played a great give and go and smashed home a game winning goal in the 89th minute. Turkey's heroic late goal wasn't late enough, and unlike their other victims Germany had a few minutes to respond. Then the feed went out again so we missed extra time only to learn that they match was ended {of course the feed came right back on after the match had ended and worked for the entire post match segment}.

So a damn exciting thriller that ended Germany 3-2 Turkey and Mother Nature 3-0 Switzerland Power Supply. Very frustrating to watch for me as a neutral- I can only imagine how maddening it must have been for those watching in Germany and Turkey. Of course, legendary DC Trojan had the quote of the day on the frustrating power outage for the world TV audience situation when he said: "You'd think the Swiss would have used all that nazi gold on a more robust electrical grid..." Epic.

The other frustrating thing about ESPN's coverage during the power outages was this- they kept showing fans in Basel or Vienna or wherever in fan zones watching on a giant screen in some square, and it seemed pretty obvious that they were somehow getting a different feed than the world TV audience, i.e. they could actually see what was going on. But ESPN just kept the camera on the fans as the talking heads talked- why didn't they just turn their camera around and point it at the giant public viewing screen? Duh.

Turkey were the romantic heroes of this tournament with their never ending run of late theatrics, and even in defeat today they battled against the odds, and came back at the end again, albeit 4 minutes too soon. Even in losing they are the darlings of Euro2008 and will be one of the first things remembered about this tournament years from now. They can be proud of their performance and will always think of what might have been if they had anything near a full strength squad available today.

Germany are through to the final and will play tomorrow's Russia/Spain winner on Sunday at 11.45 a.m. PST on ABC. Here's hoping the TV feeds are intact then as well as tomorrow.

Russia-Spain
Thu. 6/26 11.45 a.m. PST ESPN2

Spain beat Russia 4-1 in the first group match, but I watched that match and noted then that Russia actually played very well, it was just that Spain played unbelievably great, maybe the best performance by a team of any of the matches in the tournament. After seeing that first match it was obvious that despite the loss Russia were very talented and that they would be extremely dangerous when they got Arshavin back. Down 0-1 Russia hit the post which may have changed the complexion of the match considerably, and they created alot of chances that they squandered. So don't look at that scoreline and assume that Spain will win. Russia are obviously much better with Arshavin and after dominating the best team in the tournament in the group stage they will be full of confidence. Also, like all Guus Hiddink teams, they are supremely fit, which at this stage in a tournament is very significant, and they also have the youngest legs of any team in the tournament, so it was no surprise that they looked so strong against Holland in extra time.

Spain should also be much better against Russia than they were against Italy. Italy defended with 10 men, and clogged up the passing lanes, especially in the middle of defense; but Spain lack width, they don't have true wingers, so instead of getting wide and trying to spread out Italy's packed in defense, they repeatedly tried to go right up the middle to no avail. Russia will give Spain more room to operate, but they also might spend so much time pinning back Spain that, like Holland, they never get into an offensive rhythm themselves.

The only suspension of note is Russian centreback Kolodin, who had a nightmare in the 1-4 loss to Spain in the first match but had been outstanding since {and has been one of the very few players in this tournament to be able to shoot this new ball from distance and not have it sky way above the crossbar}.

Either way this match should be outstanding as both teams will go for it, which should lead to a very exciting match with tons of chances.

Given the unfortunate circumstances for Turkey, today is like an appetizer preceding a grand feast tomorrow.

Although I picked Spain to win it all {over Germany no less} before the tournament, and would be happy to see that final, if I was a betting man right now I think I might just take Russia to win the whole thing. How can you not after learning that they've been offered TWO WOMEN for every goal they score {hat tip to commenter Killing My Liver}?

Enjoy the matches.

Russia 0-3 Spain. Final.

Theo Leads Dawgs In Championship Game Tonight

2008-06-25T09:42:00.000-07:00

Georgia plays Fresno State today at 4 p.m. EST {ESPN} in the final championship game at the College World Series to determine the 2008 national championship.

I'm not a college baseball head, but I have enjoyed following the Dawgs playoff run and as good as it's been Fresno State's cinderella run has been even more amazing. Should be a great finish to the season, tournament, and College World Series.

Win or lose, Bulldogs will be champions.

But forget all that. No matter what happens, it is plainly obvious to me that Gordon Beckham, Georgia best player, all time HR king, and 1st round draft pick, is actually Theo from MTVs Road Rules.

Don't believe me?

Here's "Gordon" giving you some backstage access to Georgia Baseball:

OK, now although I can't find any footage from Road Rules featuring Theo from New Orleans, here is some more recent footage from Theo, who apparently is now a comic:

The defense rests. QEDMF.

And Then There Were 4

2008-06-25T09:27:00.000-07:00

Quick thoughts on the quarterfinals:

- Germany won two quarterfinals: their own, where they were a little lucky in that Ballack's obvious push in the back for their 3rd goal went unnoticed and what ended up being the winning goal should not have been given, and the Croatia-Turkey match, where they were again lucky that Turkey came back to win in the end, as they had 3 key players suspended through dodgy yellow cards {more on that in a minute} in addition to their injuries, and they won't have to face a Croatia team full of confidence that knows it can beat Germany because it already has, in the group stage. I'm not saying they're not good, they certainly are, but it helps in any competition like this to be lucky as well.

- Despite all their cardiac kids success and everyone concentrating on the Cinderella story, Turkey were extremely unlucky with 3 of their 4 suspensions. First and foremost, two of their best players, Tuncay and Arda received yellow cards against Croatia that ruled them out for the semifinal against Germany, and each of them could be described as soft yellows at best. More likely they were simply fouls, and not even bad fouls either- pretty poor refereeing to give such BS yellows when he should have already known which players were on a yellow and would potentially miss the semifinal with a booking. Asik is also suspended, and you could even argue that his yellow against Croatia should have just been a foul. Adding injury to insult for both Asik and Tuncay is the fact that in the 1st half against Croatia Asik was kicked in the face, right in the mouth, and a foul wasn't even given, and then Tuncay was kicked really hard right in the knee, with studs, and there was no foul given, even though his knee was bleeding and he limped off. That's tough. Hell, if you go back to the red card for the goalkeeper at the end of the Czech Republic match, yes it was silly and stupid, but a straight red? Koller made a total meal of it with a Dennis Rodman exaggeration, but being that it was a little push and not a punch, I'd go so far as to argue that the red card should have been a yellow at most, and he should even be playing today.

This isn't to say that I am a huge Turkey fan, although I like them just fine. I just think it sucks that they have been penalized so harshly and in my opinion, from seeing all the incidents, unfairly, because it really takes away from how good the semifinal against Germany could and should be.

- Russia have been the revelation of the tournament, and I'm happy that I was just a little bit ahead of the curve there on them as well as Arshavin, who I got to see play in the UEFA cup this spring and knew would likely make a big impression at this tournament. But let's remember how close they were to not being here at all. Grouped with Croatia, England, and Israel, they went to Israel in their penultimate match needing a result to clinch, and they hit the bar late and then lost to a late Israeli goal, seemingly knocking them out altogether. On the final day of qualifying they needed to beat Andorra AND hope that already qualified Croatia could go to Wembley and beat England outright, which seemed preposterous since Croatia had already won the group and had nothing to play for. Well Russia beat Andorra 1-0 and Croatia came from behind to beat England at Wembley and famously knock England out, but in doing so they also let Russia in. Russia should send a big fat thank you note or some oil billions Croatia's way, don't you think?

- After Guus Hiddink took South Korea all the way to the semifinal of World Cup 2002, the South Korean government have Hiddink his own freaking island, which left me wondering at the end of the last match- holy hell, what will Putin give him if they win this whole thing?

- Lots of attention has been given to Russia attacking play & domination- and rightfully so- and the Dutch being disappointing, but I'm not sure people are giving enough weight to the fact that the effect of defender Boulahrouz's tragedy had on the team. For those that don't know, Khalid Boulahrouz's and his wife were expecting a child, but complications happened on Wednesday and the baby was born prematurely and then died {that is why Holland were wearing the black armbands on Saturday}. Truly tragic, and I was amazed that he even played on Saturday. Looking back it seems that the Dutch lacked a certain intensity that they showed earlier in the tournament and were sleepwalking/going through the motions just a bit, as compared to their earlier romps. Not to take anything away from Russia, but it's hard to imagine that they psyche of the team was not significantly affected by this tragic loss. Be clear- I am not blaming them at all or saying that they should have worked through it and somehow overcome it, there's not really a way anyone can do that, no matter what people say, but I'm just saying that it was sad and unfortunate timing for the team and for my money it may have played a part in their performance.

- I've never been so happy to see Italy lose as I was on Sunday. They were actually pretty good in the group stage with all the diving, cheating, and usual theatrics- keeping them in check, or as much in check as an Italian team can, but like they so often do, when it gets into the do or die knockout stage, they pulled out all the stops. It was sickening, and even more sickening that the beyond horrid officiating by the referee allowed, enabled, and encouraged it. The whole game had a totally undeserved 1-0 to Italy written all over it, and I was certain that they would win on penalties. I have never liked Italy, but again that was the happiest I've ever been that they lost.

- It sure can't hurt Arsenal any next season that young Cesc Fabregas stepped up and slotted one of the biggest penalties in Spanish history on Sunday, which will do wonders for his confidence- as if he needed that. But it again makes me wonder about Aragones' use of him- it's been pretty obvious to me that in every match he has come on as a sub, Spain has instantly looked better, more dangerous and threatening {or is this observation because I am an Arsenal fan who absolutely loves Cesc? I've seen this written elsewhere, but is that just the English media who see everything through the EPL lens?} . So why doesn't Cesc start? I hear seniority but don't really get it- Aragones has the huevos to leave Raul out altogether but then plays Xavi ahead of Cesc- there's no consistency there. Also curious that Cesc, who despite all his good displays is still seen as the 12th man substitute and not good enough to start, is then assigned to take the 5th penalty kick, which is even crazier when you find out from Cesc himself that this was the first penalty kick he has ever taken at top level, and the first he has taken in any match since a youth game 6 years ago when he was 15. It's not killing me that Cesc is the 12th man, but those things just don't seem to really square up. Either way, fuck it, it's only going to help him be even better at Arsenal.

Goodbye Group Stage, Hello Quarterfinals

2008-06-18T22:44:00.000-07:00

The group stage is finished, and I have to say that the tournament thusfar has been very enjoyable to watch with lots of exciting soccer- more good attacking stuff then boring defensive negative stuff.

And looking at the quarterfinal matchups, it looks damn tasty with arguably 7 of the 8 teams playing wide open attacking soccer with only Italy being stereotypically cautious and defensive, although they have not been all out catennacio thusfar and have created a number of chances of their own.

The thing to remember is that what is done is done, and now the etch-a-sketch has been well and truly shaken up and it's a whole new ballgame with a clean slate. Meaning- just because Holland were the best team in the group stage, that's no guarantee of success in the knockout stage. You only have to go back to World Cup 2006, when Spain were undeniably awesome in the group stage, only to flame out in the first knockout stage, and just like that they were out. It happens all the time- such is the nature of knockout competitions, as anyone who has watched an NCAA basketball tournament knows. So as good as the teams that have been good have been {if that makes any damn sense}, they now have to refocus and do it all again. Conversely, do not sleep on a team like Italy that just snuck in- they are dangerous and will be feared by everyone else in the field. Remember that both Italy and France didn't play very well in the group stage at World Cup 2006, they both snuck through to the knockout stage by the skin of their teeth, and then proceeded to pick off a bunch of teams that had played better in the group stage and ultimately they both made it to the World Cup final.

So here are your quarterfinal matchups:

Portugal v Germany
Thursday 6/19
11.45 am PST ESPN

Croatia v Turkey
Friday 6/20
11.45 am PST ESPN

Netherlands v Russia
Saturday 6/21
11.45 am PST ABC

Spain v Italy
Sunday 6/22
11.45 am PST ESPN

All four matchups are looking super tasty on paper- here's hoping they live up to their potential.

Although I was able to correctly predict 7 of the 8 quarterfinalists, I got the matchups all wrong so there's not much left there other than my Spain over Germany in the final pick. And as I've said before, picking knockout stage is a fool's errand. Two years ago I picked 15 of the 16 teams that made it to the knockout stage of World Cup 2006, but then it all went pear shaped. Quickly.

If I had to predict again based on these matchups, I'd say any of these could easily go either way, but if pressed I'll get crazy and pick Portugal to beat Germany, Turkey to beat Croatia, Russia to shock Holland {just for shits & giggles}, and Spain to beat Italy, and for Spain to beat Portugal in the all-Iberian final.

But other than my longstanding dislike of Italy, I wouldn't mind any of these teams winning the title, although it would be easier to accept Portuguese success if CR7 tweaked a hamstring and was out for 2 weeks, or if he played rubbish but the team did well- neither scenario seems likely.

I'm on a flight to Chicago this afternoon for the weekend- I may get to post, I may not, so this may very well be the open thread for the next for days. I always enjoy reading your opinions, so have at it.

Can't wait for these playoff matches. Enjoy!

Euro2008 Day 12 Open Thread

2008-06-18T00:04:00.000-07:00

Greece-Spain
11.45 a.m. PST ESPN

Scenarios: Greece are already eliminated; Spain are already qualified as group winners and will play Italy in the quarterfinals on Sunday. As such, this is a glorified exhibition match.

Greece 1-2 Spain. Final.

Or should I say... Greece 1-2 Spain Reserves. I didn't see a minute of this match, so I don't have much to say.

Russia-Sweden
11.45 a.m. PST ESPN2

Scenarios: Sweden advance as group runners up with a win or a draw, as they have a better goal difference than Russia. Russia must win to go through as group runners up at Sweden's expense. Whichever team goes through will face Netherlands on Saturday in the quarterfinals.

I've been saying it since before the tournament started; 2 of Sweden's big 3 are past it, and I have predicted from the get go that they would lose this match to Russia. Now their best player and main offensive threat, ZLatan Ibrahimovic, is questionable to even play tomorrow with the knee injury that forced him to be substituted at halftime against Spain. Even is he plays he is clearly not at 100%, which just adds to my feelings about Sweden's prospects. Russia on the other hand, get their best player, Arshavin, back after missing him in the first two matches through suspension. That just makes me feel even stronger that Russia are going to outplay Sweden and beat them. For me they have more talent, younger legs {they are youngest team in the tournament while Sweden are the oldest}, a better coach, and they are healthier. If I lived in England then I would stop off at the betting shop tomorrow on my way to work and put down a nice juicy win bet on Russia. Sweden's time was in the past, especially with Larsson/Ljungberg. Russia's time is now. I'm no expert, but everything I know and have seen tells me that Russia should outplay Sweden and beat them, and that is what I expect to happen tomorrow; all that remains is whether they make me look wise or foolish.

Russia 2-0 Sweden
If a broken clock is right two times a day, then this match turned out to be one such time for the Kanu Wrong-O-Matic Prognostication Clock- it pretty much played out as I though it would. Russia were lively, ran circles around the aging Swedes, and looked significantly better with playmaker Arshavin. Truth be told they should have won this game by a wider margin, but they continued a bad habit of players going it alone when a simple square ball to a teammate would have resulted in a free shot on an open goal or a 1 on 1 with the goalkeeper. That said, both goals were things of beauty, clinical finishes after a buildup of several one touch passes- very Arsenal 2002-2004-esque. After watching today I am prepared to say that with Arshavin in the team, they will give Holland a good game and might even surprise everyone and beat them in the quarterfinal. Not saying they definitely will win, but don't think they will give the Dutch a much better match then they've had thusfar, and their wondercoach Guus Hiddink being Dutch and being supremely familiar with all of their players certainly won't hurt either.

Euro2008 Day 11 Open Thread

2008-06-17T00:24:00.000-07:00

This should be the most intriguing and exciting matchday thusfar as three teams battle for 1 spot and any single kick in either game could change the entire qualifying scenarios at any moment- no matter the level of quality of the soccer it will be riveting stuff.

France-Italy
11.45 am PST ESPN

Scenarios: France qualify with a win as long as Romania fail to beat Holland. Italy qualify with a win as long as Romania fail to beat Holland. Italy also qualify with a scoring draw and a Romania loss to Holland on tiebreaker C- goals scored between the three teams in the tiebreaker.

Both teams have been underwhelming, so it's hard to analyze what will happen here. These two were in the same qualifying group- France beat Italy 3-1 in Paris in September 2006, just two months after the World Cup final between these two and the heated atmosphere in the wake of the Materrazzi-Zidane incident. The teams then drew 0-0 in Milan in September 2007 in a bore draw. Recent history here is thick, with France snatching the Euro2000 final from Italy with a last minute equalizer and then a golden goal winner, and Italy beating France on penalties after the teams were tied 1-1 after 120 minutes of the epic 2006 World Cup final. Add to that the whole Zidane-Materrazi thing, and there's a serious rivalry there.

I'm not the best person to analyze this match objectively, because I have always disliked Italy and always dug France, so obviously I would prefer France to win. What's so interesting to me is that this is the 1 match that the whole world has looked forward to since the fixtures were announced months ago, with everyone thinking it would be the be-all end all, and now here we are with the possibility that the "match of the tournament" will be moot if Romania beat Holland.

Italy 2-0 France. Final.
France lost their best player, Tom Greene lookalike Franck Ribery, in the 10th minute when he was injured and stretchered off. Italy controlled it from the start, and then Abidal brought down Luca Toni in the box with a clumsy challenge from behind: penalty for Italy, Abidal sent off, France reduced to 10 men, penalty converted by Pirlo, Nasri- who came on for injured Ribery in the 10th minute- sacrificed for a defender, and it was all uphill from there. 65 minutes of playing a man down and a goal down against Italy, without your best player and with 2 of your 3 alloted subs already burned up it a tunnel with a very small light at the end.

Predictably Italy bossed it from there on out. France did well to basically hold them, but hold them was not what was needed- what they needed was 2 goals and that always seemed like a bridge too far. Grosso had a great free kick that French keeper Coupet palmed onto the post, and France hung around but didn't look especially threatening with Henry & Benzema isolated alone up front mostly without Ribery making threatening runs from wide spaces and linking up with them. Without Vieira, himself aging, and Ribery, the creative force, France's midfield just lack players that can turn a match.

Italy put the match out of reach midway through the 2nd half with a De Rossi free kick from outside the box that took a deflection off Henry's foot and completely wrongfooted the keeper, who had dived to his right to save the shot only to watch the ball deflect in behind him into the other side of the goal. Unfortunate, but every goal looks the same on the scoreboard, and at 2-0 up and 11v10, this match was well and truly over.

So thanks to Holland Italy are through, and France are out. France's play in this tournament was pretty much what I expected and predicted. They need to fire crazy & clueless Domenech, hire a new manager, and start retiring the aging stars to pasture and rebuild around the young but inexperienced talent.

Full credit to Italy, they played great and controlled the match from the get go. Yes, the match developed in such a way that was advantageous to them as well, but they still played good stuff, created lots of chances, and did what they needed to do- full marks to them.

So Italy play Spain in the last quarterfinal on Sunday- that should be one tasty soccer match.

Netherlands-Romania
11.45 am PST ESPN Classic

Scenarios: Netherlands are through as group winners. Romania qualify as group runners up with a win. Romania can also qualify as group runners up with a draw if France & Italy also draw. Finally, Romania can qualify as group runners up with a loss if France & Italy play to a scoreless draw, then Romania would go through on tiebreaker D- goal difference in all group matches, unless Romania lose to Holland by 4 or more goals.

Romania have everything to play for and Holland nothing, so Romania could win against a less than first team Dutch side. Even so, Romania are defensive minded opportunists, a la Greece 2004, while even Holland's B team will play the free flowing attacking stuff. Part of me wants to see Romania do it because they are underdogs and everyone wrote them off and I predicted before the tournament that they would go through, but another part of me doesn't want to see their defensive 1-0 grind it out style succeed at the expense of more offensive minded teams- just on general principle. On a third hand, I am no fan of Italy and would prefer the cinderella Romanians going trough rather than them.

It will be fascinating to see what happens if it's tied and Romania draw a penalty- will Mutu take it or refuse and make someone else take it. Will Holland try? Dunno, but can't wait to find out.

It should be really compelling viewing of both matches as the scenarios described above change over the course of 90 minutes with both matches being concurrent. Hopefully it will be exciting- with all the scenarios it will be riveting even if the soccer isn't as enticing as everyone is expecting.

Netherlands 2-0 Romania. Final.
Romania today reminded me of Rocco Mediate in the US Open. They had their chances, didn't seize them, and it came back to bite them in the ass. {Rocco, for all his great play, had the ball in the fairway from 100 yards out on 18- the easiest hole on the golf course- both Sunday and Monday, and both times he made par, when a birdie in either situation would have knocked Tiger out and made him US Open champion}. Similarly, today Romania had three great chances that I saw to go 1-0 up and seize the match by the scruff of the neck; they missed all three, and then in the 2nd half Holland did what Holland does and scored 2 great goals to win the match, first with Huntelaar and then with Van Persie, and that was that.

If Mutu felt bad about his penalty miss to beat Italy at the end of their match last week, I wonder how badly he feels now. That penalty miss will probably haunt him for a long, long time.

Netherlands have scored 9 goals in their 3 matches, which is impressive. What's even more impressive is that those 9 goals have come from SEVEN different goalscorers- Van Persie{2}, Sneijder{2}, Van Nistelrooy{1}, Kuyt{1} , Robben{1}, Van Bronkhorst{1}, Huntelaar{1}. That's pretty scary stuff. This isn't a team that someone is putting on their back and carrying through with an amazing tournament- the goals are coming from all over. Holland play their quarterfinal on Saturday against the winner of tomorrow's elimination match between Sweden and Russia.

Euro2008 Day 10 Open Thread

2008-06-16T00:04:00.000-07:00

Austria-Germany 11.45 a.m. PST ESPN
Scenarios: Germany earn the 2nd place qualifying spot with a draw. Austria earn the 2nd place qualifying spot with a win, as long as Poland do not beat Croatia by 2 more goals than they beat Germany {if Poland beat Croatia by 1 more goal than Austria beat Germany, then it will come down to the tiebreakers between those two, and it would likely come down to (e) number of goals scored or (f) UEFA co-efficient, where Poland is ahead}

This match will be going on at the same time at the US Open 18 hole playoff between Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate; if Austria beat Germany then it will be an even bigger upset than if Rocco beats Tiger over 18 holes. If Germany play like they did in their first match, they will cruise. If they play like they did against Croatia, then anything can happen. I'm betting that they sort themselves out and do the job. Germany's Schweinsteiger got a silly, albeit harsh, red card and misses the match through suspension. Striker Mario Gomez has been awful up front, and don't be surprised if he starts on the bench. Note that win or lose for Austria, there is still a lifetime supply of beer on offer for anyone who scores a goal.

Austria 0-1 Germany. Final.
Hard for me to offer any real insight on this one, as I was switching back and forth constantly between this match and the riveting US Open playoff between Tiger Woods & Rocco Mediate on the Slingbox, all while pretending to work. It's always really difficult to get a true feel for a soccer match if you don't watch the whole thing or at least long continuous stretches. I did see Ballack's rocket shot of a free kick live, and it was a worthy first free kick goal of the tournament. Austria didn't look too threatening from open play from what I saw, but it seemed like they put in a respectable effort but were just outmatched.

So Germany and Portugal in the first semifinal on Thursday should be awesome. Germany stereotypical discipline against Portugal's stereotypical flair.

Poland-Croatia 11.45 a.m. ESPN Classic
Scenarios: Croatia are through as group winners and will face Turkey in the quarterfinals on Friday; for them this is little more than a practice match. Poland must beat Croatia, and must have Austria beat Germany, and they must beat Croatia by 2 more goals than Austria beat Germany {if Poland beat Croatia by 1 more goal than Austria beat Germany, then it will come down to the tiebreakers between those two, and it would likely come down to (e) number of goals scored or (f) UEFA co-efficient, where Poland is ahead}

Croatia have absolutely nothing to play for and may rest several key players. In that respect you could say that Poland have a decent chance to win, but even so everything will hinge on the other match. They really need a perfect storm- something like a 2-0 win and a miracle Austrian 1-0 I think would get them there on tiebreakers {see above}. It's possible, but not probable- we shall see.

Poland 0-1 Croatia. Final.
Didn't even watch it, as the golf had me split between Austria-Germany and Tiger-Rocco, and I can't get ESPN Classic on the slingbox and never made it over to the pub. So I can't tell you a single thing about it other than the score.

Euro2008 Day 9 Open Thread

2008-06-14T22:26:00.000-07:00

Switzerland-Portugal
11.45 a.m. PST ESPN2

An exhibition match, as Portugal are already through as group winners and Switzerland are already eliminated. Not much more to say, is there?

Switzerland 2-0 Portugal. Final.

I have nothing to add, as I didn't watch the exhibition match but only saw highlights.

Turkey-Czech Republic
11.45 a.m. PST ESPN Classic
An elimination match for the 2nd qualifying spot and a date with Group B winners Croatia in the quarterfinals. As these two teams are tied in every way, if there is a draw then by a new UEFA rule this year the tie will be broken by a penalty shootout immediately after the full time whistle- no extra time. Again, it will be interesting to see if it's tied late if the teams go for it or play for penalties.

Pretty even matchup here, either team is capable of winning; I have a sneaking suspicion that the Turks are going to sneak it.

Turkey 3-2 Czech Republic. Final.
They made me look smarter than I am, for sure.

The match of the tournament thusfar- if the next 100 soccer matches televised in the United States all finished like this, soccer would pass the WNBA in popularity in this country.

I actually missed the first half, as my 1 hour pickup game this morning in Golden Gate Park turned into a 2.5 hour pickup match, but I cruised over to Pizza Orgasmica for the second half, and what a second half it was. Turkey were 0-1 down but having the better of it as they desperately looked for an equalizer, then Czech went 2-0 up and with Cech in goal it seemed like that was that. At some point they hit the post to get a 3rd goal, which at the time was not a big deal but in hindsight was huge. In the 74th minute they got one back on a wonderfully placed shot off the post by young star Arda after two absolutely perfect and beautiful passes to set up the chance- a beautiful goal. So 2-1 and game on. Then only 3 minutes from time Peter Cech, one of the two best goalkeepers in the world {Buffon- Italy} and certainly the best goalkeeper in the world with a fractured skull, dropped an easy cross and gifted the Turks an equalizer; this had everything to do with the driving rain- yes it was a brainfart/fuckup, but if it was dry you have to think that it never would have happened.

So 2-2 with only 2 minutes left, and before everyone could wrap their heads around the amazing comeback and that we were looking at a straight to penalty shootout tiebreaker, Nihat beat the offsides trap and slotted home a curler off the underside of the bar in the 89th minute. In real time he looked offsides by a mile, but replays showed him to be even, which is onsides. Amazing.

2-0 up with 15 minutes left with Cech in goal, and I'd have bet you damn near anything that the Czechs would not lose, not against Turkey, Brasil, Argentina, Netherlands, not anyone. That they conceded 3 goals in the last 15 minutes and two in the last 5 is beyond belief. Incredible, and the best turnaround finish of any soccer match since France was 0-1 down in their Euro2004 group stage tilt with England in extra time and Zidane scored on a free kick in the 91st minute to get a draw and then just a minute later Henry earned a penalty which Zidane cooly slotted- after vomiting on the field- to absolutely stun England, who like the Czechs today, went from winning to tying to losing in less than 2 minutes at the very end of the match.

So Turkey go through as the 2nd place team which means that they will face Group A winners Croatia in the quarterfinals on Friday.

Euro2008 Second Round Thoughts

2008-06-14T22:11:00.000-07:00

After 16 matches, I still stand behind my theory about the new ball sailing high from long shots and free kicks more often than not.

Also, as much as we all hate ESPN and bash it, you have to credit them for their Euro2008 coverage. Hell just them buying the rights has been great; this is the first time for "mainstream" US coverage where we don't have to seek out footy pubs and pay $10 to 20 per day- that alone is great. Their World Cup 2006 coverage was abysmally bad, but this time they have done much, much better. First and foremost they have better talent, mainly that they have somehow hired BBC color commentator Andy Gray, who has been just outstanding. Compare that to Dave O'Brien and Marcelo Balboa which is what we had last time around. Gray has always been good for EPL matches in the past, but he has been just outstanding in this tournament, and he truly adds something to the viewing experience, which truth be told is something new for ESPN soccer coverage.

Also, they have taken a page from Univision/Galavision/Telemundo and come on the air early enough to show the pregame fanfare and national anthems, which really sets the scene and gives a much better sense of the atmosphere and occasion than before when they didn't.

They have actually improved quite a bit, so credit where credit is due- full marks thusfar.

Very strange that after 2 group stage matches all 4 groups already have determined a winner. With the final matches being concurrent, 2 of the 4 groups basically have an elimination match and an exhibition match, so for the ADD non multitaskers out there, 2 of the next 4 days you can just focus on one match- the other two days you'll have to find a place that will have both matches on and get your multitask on.

Lots of good matches thusfar, I have really enjoyed watching them. Here's hoping for more attacking go-for-it soccer in round and less of scared to lose defensive, timid soccer.

I'm sticking with all of my original predictions with the obvious substitution of Netherlands for Italy, and looking forward I'm hoping like almost everyone else for a Netherlands-Spain semifinal...

Euro2008 Day 8 Open Thread

2008-06-14T00:02:00.000-07:00

Sweden-Spain
9 a.m. PST ESPN2

I don't have much to say here that I haven't said already in my tournament preview and first round thoughts. Namely, that in my opinion Sweden is a past it paper tiger, and that their first match win was a bit flattering in that they had 1 moment of magic from Zlatan and that was it, and that I think Spain are far superior and that Russia will beat them in the last match as well. Don't get me wrong, I don't dislike Sweden, I've always kind of dug them and I like that they like to go forward and attack, but I just don't see it happening; they are the oldest team in the tournament with an average age of 31, and I think they are simply past it. If Spain play 70% as well as they played against Russia they should win comfortably; they were outstanding in their first match; scary good, just like Netherlands.

Sweden 1-2 Spain. Final.
Spain played well early and took the lead in the 15th minute when Torres scored on a great sliding volley from a low cross. Spain were cruising but after the goal seemed to let off a bit, content to have possession and pass it around but lacking a driving finish- they were comfortable but not creating a lot of chances. Then in 35 minutes Sweden equalized when their only seeming threat, Ibrahimovic, turned and slotted a nice goal with an assist from Spanish defender Sergio Ramos, who made a mess of it. 1-1 and game on. The rest of the half was lively, and just before halftime Spain got jobbed when David Silva was absolutely barreled over in the box by a Swedish defender- a clearer penalty you will never see, but somehow it wasn't called.

Ibrahimovic had to come off at halftime {knee I think}, which didn't bode well for Sweden in the 2nd half, as moments of magic by him appear to be the only way Sweden are likely to score. Spain had a great opportunity to grab the game by the neck and kill it off. They dominated possession- I would guess they had 70% possession in the 2nd half- but although they passed it around for long stretches they largely failed to create good chances in the box. It seemed that their achilles heel, the lack of a wide winger with pace, hurt them, but credit to Sweden defensively, who held their shape and were extremely difficult to break down. On the other end Sweden offered nearly nothing without Zlatan The Great- other than 1 near miss from a set piece, I don't think they had a shot or a shot on goal in the entire second half. But it looked like they were going to hang on for a draw until the last minute: the key to the whole play was a collision in the Spanish end near their box- Swedish dude went down, and Spanish defender immediately screamed at him that he was diving and to get up. The referee did not give a foul, and the ball fell to a Spanish defender who booted it 70 yards upfield, it bounced, and striker David Villa ran onto it, split two Swedish defenders with a crafty first touch, and then opened his body and slotted it past the keeper to shock Sweden and get a Spanish win right at the death. Ironic that after an entire 2nd half of beautiful passing with little end product, Spain score a Route 1 goal off a thumped longball that a striker latches onto and finishes clinically.

Back to the key of that final goal- was it a foul at the beginning or did the Swedish striker dive? Replays are inconclusive, and none of the ESPN crew has talked about it or shown a close up camera angle of it. Surely Sweden will feel that it was a foul and that the goal was not legit, that they should have had a dangerous free kick themselves. I'd really like to see a closeup of the heretofore not talked about incident- we'll see if we get one. If Sweden's coach/players bitch about it in their post match pressers then hopefully some media will show a close up angle of the incident.

So surely Sweden feel hard done by, but Spain can argue, rightfully so, that they were jobbed from a drop dead obvious penalty in the first half, and they might add that Sweden did have a handball in the box in the second half, even if it was unintentional. Either way what's done is done, so it's time to move on.

So Spain are through to the second round, and if Greece fail to win the late match then they will also be group winners with a match to spare. I assume that Sweden will hope for a Greece-Russia draw; if that is they case then Sweden will only need a draw in their final match with Russia to go through.

One more thought- David Villa is set to leave Valencia this summer, and Valencia put a 40 million Euro price tag on him before the tournament started {which sadly is why you won't see him at Arsenal next year}. With 4 goals in 2 matches, I'm not sure if 40 million Euros will even get you a returned phone call from Valencia at this point.

Greece-Russia
11.45 a.m. PST ESPN2
Greece will be Greece; they will play cautious defensive minded soccer, and if they can nick a goal they will shut up shop, play for the 1-0 win, and maybe try to sneak another on the counter attack. Russia are more offensive minded, but are even more up against it than they were in the first match. Their best player Arshavin is still suspended, but now they are without not 1 but two strikers who are both injured- one might play but it looks doubtful. Even so, look for them to go forward and have a go at it, and if they can win or even grab a draw then in my opinion I think they are in a really good spot in the final match.

Then again, I may very well turn out to be completely wrong about things here- I often am. But those are my thoughts, so there they are.

Halftime: Greece 0-1 Russia
Greece have been a little less inept offensively than they were against Sweden. And Christenidas should definitely have scored on his free header from 6 yards out that he completely wiffed on. Russia were pretty good going forward, and they got their goal when the Greek keeper had a true moment of madness, came way out of his goal unnecessarily- there was a defender there marking the dude, and a clever ball by the Russian back over his head gave his teammate a tap in to an open goal.

Russia will be best served to try to go ahead and get a second goal, as Greece are supremely dangerous from set pieces and corners.

Greece 0-1 Russia. Final.

Russia had chance after chance after chance to put Greece to the sword, but they squandered great opportunity after great opportunity. Then with about 10 minutes left Greece got a goal but had a dude wrongfully ruled offside, so they got kind of jobbed. They were outplayed on the one hand, but they should have scraped a draw on the other but got a tough call against them. Two of the three goals they conceded were terrible defensive meltdowns/brainfarts- true keystone cops stuff, which is ironic for a team built on such a rock solid defense. So they are out, and Spain are group winners, and the second qualifying spot comes down to the Sweden-Russia match on Wednesday. Russia must win outright to go through; Sweden only need a draw because although the two teams are level on points Sweden have a better goal difference.

Feel Good Friday: Royal Flush Edition

2008-06-13T11:42:00.000-07:00

I give you "Royal Flush", the first single from Big Boi's forthcoming solo album {sometime this year, allegedly} that was leaked onto the internet a couple of months ago. With Andre 3000 and Raekwon featuring, it's like Aquemeni all over again. Like most efforts when Outkast's 2 pillars team up, it's damn good.

Enjoy, and Happy Weekend.