The Hot Dog Guy

Gut check game

2009-11-12T13:33:00.002-06:00

I had planned on posting a mid-season evaluation of the Bears today, along with my selection of tonight's highly-important game against the 49ers. But annoying distractions like school and work seem to have gotten in the way, so instead, you'll have to settle for this mini-preview today and hopefully something more in-depth tomorrow.

When the NFL schedule was initially released back in April, this game caught a lot of people's attention. Not only because it was a mid-week game, which tends to be noteworthy, but also because of the opponent. San Francisco is coached by Samurai Mike Singletary (he stops 'em cold, part of the defense, big and bold), a Hall-of-Fame player and a legend in Chicago. He's trying to build the Niners the same way as Lovie Smith is trying build the Bears - to be a tough, hard-nosed team. Considering San Fran has lost four straight games and the Bears have been embarrassed two of the past three weeks, it seems to be working great.

Of course some team has to win this game. I'm taking the 49ers for two reasons. One, because they have Frank Gore and the Bears run defense has been dreadful since the bye week. Two, because they are at home and didn't have to fly across the country on a short week. That's the only thing that separates these two teams. Switch the home field and I take the Bears. Sit 'The Inconvenient Truth' and I take the Bears.

So I'll say 27-20 49ers in a game that won't be as ugly as last Sunday was...I promise. The Bears have to show some heart one of these weeks, and I think this is it.

November 4 will define Bears

2009-11-06T13:28:00.000-06:00

Sunday starts a tough four-game stretch for the Bears: home versus defending NFC Champ Arizona, at San Francisco on a Thursday night, home versus the other team in last January’s NFC Championship game, Philadelphia, on a Sunday night, and then a trip up to the Metrodome to face the first place Vikings. Four games, four challenges, but five possible outcomes for the Bears.

If the team runs the table (highly unlikely), they will certainly make the playoffs and may even win the NFC North. A 5-0 November, including last Sunday’s win versus Cleveland, would quiet all the Jay Cutler trade doubters…at least until the first loss in December. And there’s no doubt that the entire coaching staff would return next season, bar an epic collapse during the season’s final weeks.

Going 3-1 during the stretch would be an accomplishment as well. Considering the two thought-to-be tough stretches of the schedule at the start of the year were the first three games (at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seattle, which the Bears went 2-1) and this month, it would look good for Cutler and coach Lovie Smith’s resume that they navigated through each of them successfully. Assuming the Bears handle their business in December/January (vs. St. Louis, vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs. Minnesota on Monday night and at Detroit, the team would play in the post-season.

I’d argue the most probable scenario is a 2-2 record, which would leave the Bears exactly where they stand right now - in the middle of the pack in the NFC. Considering of their three losses, two have come on nationally-telivised night games, losses to the 49ers and Eagles seem likely. That would mean though that the Bears beat Minnesota on November 29, which would make more than a couple of people smile for a variety of reasons. Like with the previous route, a 2-2 record would mean the December stretch is given extra importance.

A 1-3 record and the season’s likely over. It seems highly unlikely that the Bears could enter December at 5-6 and make the playoffs. Unless the one win is against the Vikings, combined with more Minnesota losses and an impressive end of season run, it will mark three consecutive playoff-less seasons following the Super Bowl appearance in 2007. So far, the common theme in all the losses for the Bears this season has been turnovers. If that continues, major questions will arise about why the Cutler trade was made in the first place.

Finally, there is 0-4. Lovie Smith, Ron Turner and the rest of the coaching staff is toast. So is much of the defense, which is getting up there in age. GM Jerry Angelo could be updating his resume as well if anybody in the McCaskey family is even paying attention at this point. Major criticism will land at the feet of Cutler, Matt Forte and all the other under-performers in 2009, especially since the Bears don’t have a draft pick in the first two rounds in next April’s draft.

So how’s it going to go? Not to seem predictable, but I’m guessing based on how the season has gone, 2-2 seems most likely. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, the Bears seem to play their opponents well. Against good teams - Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta - they play well and the game goes down to the wire. Against bad teams - Detroit, Cleveland - they don’t play particularly well, but still are able to get the job done. Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all good or really good teams, ones that will require the Bears to play as well as they have all season. I still say the December/January schedule sets up well, with home games against division rivals as well as contents with the pathetic Rams and Lions. Going 2-2 in November may not be preferable, but it doesn’t kill the Bears season.

Now of course are my Week 9 picks, with winners in bold.

Washington at Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Houston at Indianapolis

Miami at New England

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Jacksonville

Carolina at New Orleans

Detroit at Seattle

San Diego at New York Giants

Tennessee at San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Denver

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 76-40

Are you ready for some overeactions?

2009-10-30T13:19:00.001-05:00

There are only 16 regular season games on each team’s NFL schedule. Only 16. That means unlike baseball, where there are 10-times that many, or basketball, with about five-times as many games, there is no waiting in the NFL. No adjustment period for new acquisitions to get comfortable, no time for a rookie to learn the playbook, no time to complain about injuries. With only 16 games, every Sunday is important.

And that actually is the best thing about the NFL. The limited number of games means that each week, there are matchups with playoff implications. As a fan, you can’t miss anything, because there’s only four months of actual (regular season) football compared to the seven months of football hype. Each game feels like a movie on limited release in theaters - there’s only a little bit of time to see it, so make sure not to skip it.

Having only 16 games is also the worst thing about the NFL. Because each game is an event, fans, coaches and the media take every little thing that happens and magnify it to Terrence Cody size. Overreactions are as normal in professional football as Brad Childress time management mistakes. It’s the reason team’s are either written in as Super Bowl contenders or written off as horrible failures so early in the season, and too often, these harsh predictions are confused with actual fact.

Take the Bears for example. Last week they laid an egg with an embarrassing loss at Cincinnati. Maybe the worst game of the entire Lovie Smith era. No excuse for that. But based on what people have written or said in Chicago this week, you’d think that the Bengals game officially ended the Bears season. One person I spoke with on the train said the Bears were set to lose four of their next five games. Another said the team would eventually get eclipsed by the Lions in the NFC North standings.

Did I miss something? Do games in southern Ohio now count for 16 games instead of one? Do the Bears still have 10 games to go - six of which are at home? Is the team still 3-3 with wins over the defending Super Bowl champs and on the road in Seattle? Yes, the Bears played like a middle school team last Sunday. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte couldn’t get anything going on offense, and the defense made Cedric Benson look like the player the Bears drafted with the fourth pick in the 2004 draft. It was 31-0 before halftime and everybody associated with the team should be embarrassed.

But it’s impossible to say that this game ends the Bears season. There’s just too much time left to play. Remember the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, the team that ended up beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI? In a week 14 game at Jacksonville, Indy was absolutely shredded, losing 44-17. The Jaguars ran for 375 yards on 42 caries, an average of about nine yards per rush. Three Jacksonville players ran for more than 70 yards and the Colts allowed four rushing TDs. It was clearly a bad loss for Indianapolis, and afterward, analysts and fans alike all said there was no way the Colts could win the title because their run defense was too poor.

Then safety Bob Sanders returned to the lineup after an injury, and in four playoff games that season, the Colts never allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. Run defense - and Rex Grossman - were the reasons the Colts dominated the Bears in the Super Bowl. In week 14 Indianapolis was left for dead, and by week 19, they were the champions of the world.

Now I’m not saying the Bears are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe the faults they showed in the Bengals game will persist all year long and the team goes from a very promising 3-1 start to a dreadful 6-10 finish. Perhaps Lovie loses his job (Ron Turner has to go as well). But before that happens, the team has 10 more games to play. Yes, there’s only ten left. Then we have to wait all the way until next September for more football. So lets try and enjoy it.

Here are my Week 8 picks, with winners in bold.

Houston at Buffalo

Cleveland at Chicago

Seattle at Dallas

St. Louis at Detroit

San Francisco at Indianapolis

Miami at New York Jets

New York Giants at Philadelphia

Denver at Baltimore

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Oakland at San Diego

Minnesota at Green Bay

Carolina at Arizona

Atlanta at New Orleans

Last Week: 7-6
Season to Date: 70-33

A very Tweet NBA Preview

2009-10-27T22:25:00.002-05:00

Twitter is the new craze these days, with millions of people describing their every thought, feeling, joke, outrage and up-to-the-second detail of their life, 140 characters at a time. While I’m not a user, mainly because I don’t really have the energy to update my life on a consistent basis, I do enjoy reading the accounts of a few people. It’s interesting to see how much - or how little - information one can share in that amount of space.

With that in mind, I wanted to see how well I could do communicating via Tweet. So here is my 2009-10 NBA Preview, with each team preview, awards pick and reasoning coming in the form of a 140-charachter rant.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Cleveland: Shaq clogs the lane too much for my liking, but LBJ will be a monster in his contract year, even better than 08-09s 28/8/7.

2) Orlando: Losing Hedu hurts, but Vince and Brandon Bass added to D12, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson make ‘09s East champs one powerful squad.

3) Boston: The return of KG, the addition of Rasheed and the emergence of Rondo make Boston an interesting team. But will all the pieces of the puzzle fit?

4) Atlanta: Young and exciting team is in a make or break year with Joe Johnson about to be a free agent. Adding Jamal Crawford really helps them.

5) Chicago: Losing BG will be costly at the end of games, but expect the jump to come from healthy Deng and improved DRose, JoNoah, Salmons.

6) Toronto: For selfish reasons, hope the Raps suck and Bosh wants to head to the Chi. But I like Hedu and love DeRozen, meaning the playoffs.

7) Washington: Love Gilbert, love Caron, love Jamison, but who knows if they can stay healthy or what affect Flip Saunders will have.

8) Detroit: By the end of year, I promise Piston fans will love BG’s shooting and hate his lack of defense/ball handling. Breakout player: Will Bynum.

9) Charlotte: Larry Brown teams always do well in year 2. Expecting big things out of one of my favorite recent college players, DJ Augustin.

10) Philadelphia: Still don’t get why they gave Elton Brand $82M if they want to run. Big question @ PG after letting Andre Miller go.

11) Miami: Dear DWade, please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls.

12) Indiana: No clue what Bird is doing. Either knock the pieces down and get a top-5 pick or make a move for an elite player.

13) New York: I understand what they’re doing by clearing all their cap space, but they are really screwed if LeBron doesn’t show up in 2010.

14) New Jersey: DHarris, Courtney Lee and Lopez are all solid, and T-Will was a smart pick, but this team is going to lose a lot of games.

15) Milwaukee: Feel bad for Michael Redd. Not only does he have to spend his winters in Wisc. but this team he’s on is garbage.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) LA Lakers: I’m guessing by 1-1-2010, Phil will regret signing Artest. He’s selfish, an ego-maniac and doesn’t fit the triangle. Still, they have Kobe.

2) San Antonio: The best off-season in the NBA, which is saying something. Jefferson, McDyess and Blair all should be major help to the Big 3.

3) Denver: After a small taste of success in 09, big year for ‘Mello in 2010. Big as in top 3 MVP voting. Having Billups all season helps.

4) Dallas: Dirk + JKidd + The Matrix + Drew Gooden’s beard = Team I like.

5) Utah: If there’s one rule in the NBA, it’s don’t get on Michael Jordan’s bad side. Rule 2? Never under-estimate Jerry Sloan.

6) New Orleans: Picked NO to win it all last year. Not making that mistake again. Still, CP3 is too good to let them fall far.

7) Portland: Bunch of nice pieces, but maybe too many guys who think they need the rock to be successful. Big question once again is Oden.

8) Phoenix: If Amare stays healthy, if Nash can find his groove again and if they get a breakout year from somebody, the Suns can be dangerous again.

9) Oklahoma City: Really talented roster, but still a year away. Everybody’s got a crush on Durant - justifiably- but I love Russell Westbrook as much.

10) Golden State: It’s a shame the Steph Curry had to be drafted into this insane asylum. He’s still going to be fun to watch.

11) Houston: Yao-Out. TMac-Out. Artest-Gone. So it’s going to be tough. But this is a tough team who will be better than expected.

12) LA Clippers: They’d be higher if Blake Griffin was healthy. But he isn’t, and they’re the Clippers, so it’s back to the basement.

13) Memphis: I feel horrible for Rudy Gay. He’s the best player on the team, but with Mayo, Randolph and AI, he’ll never see the ball.

14) Minnesota: Would be more entertaining if Rubio had come over, but there’s some nice pieces on this team. Still need a scorer.

15) Sacramento: Tyreeke Evans is going to be a star. Can’t say many other nice things about this roster.

East Finals) Cavs over Magic: The addition of Shaq helps guard Howard, and LeBron will be more motivated than ever.

West Finals) Spurs over Lakers: I just like this matchup for SA. Duncan, McD, Blair and Bonner take care of LAs bigs, and Parker, Manu, Jeff and Mason do enough outside.

NBA Finals) Cavs over Spurs in 6: LeBron finally wins his ring, stays in Cleveland, mass drowning avoided in Lake Erie.

MVP) LeBron James: Kobe and ‘Mello will provide little competition for the King.

ROY) Jonny Flynn: Blake Griffin is hurt, Rubio’s in Spain and Curry's in hell, so it’s up to Flynn and Tyreeke Evans. I like the ex-Orange.

1st Team All-NBA) Wade, Kobe, ‘Mello, LBJ23 and Howard

2nd Team All-NBA) CP3, Pierce, Bosh, Dirk and Duncan

Close ones define Bears

2009-10-23T15:00:00.003-05:00

Bears-Bengals this Sunday. Also known as the Benson Bowl. Should be known as the Heart Attack Bowl.

The Bears have played five games, which have been decided by 6, 3, 6, 24 and 7 points. Take away the Lions game, and the Bears average result has been less than a six points.

The Bengals have played six games, which have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. Take away last week’s game versus the Texans, and the Bengals are averaging final scores that are just over four points.

So you know that this Sunday’s game is going to come down to the end. It’s going to be up to either Jay Cutler and the offense or Lance Briggs and the defense to come up with the big play if the Bears are going to win. Last week’s meltdown in Atlanta was devastating for a number of reasons, but the main one was the Bears horrible execution in the fourth quarter. That can’t happen again if the Bears are going to win in Cincinnati.

As stressful as these games are, Bears fans should be used to it. In 2008, the Bears had 10 games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential that season was +25, which was 14 points fewer than the Packers, who won three fewer games than the Bears did. This year, through the first five games, they're on that same pace, at +20, while Green Bay again is at +39.

Close games are usually decided by three keys: coaching, turnovers and penalties. Though I've criticized him in the past, I think Lovie Smith is doing a good job this year at managing the defense. Considering there is nobody on the 53-man roster that I would valid NFL safety and the linebacking corps is more beat up that the Bluesmobile at the end of Jake and Elwood's adventure, it's difficult for me to hate on Smith's performance as the team's new defensive coordinator. My hope is that new defensive end Gaines Adams provides the consistent pass rush the team has lacked the last few weeks.

At -1 differential, it would seem that turnovers have been a minor deal, not a HUGE one. Wrong. While eight takeaways compared to nine giveaways isn't horrible, it has been the location of these turnovers. Too often the fumbles or picks have come in the red zone, such as last week's multiple fumbles by Matt Forte inside the five and Cutler's pick when the Bears were inside field goal range. Both losses, to Green Bay week 1 and Atlanta last Sunday, can be directly tied to giving the ball away when it mattered most.

And then the penalties. Against Green Bay, it was the risk of having 12 men on the field that forced a botched punt, leading to Packer points. Against Atlanta, the Bears did give Atlanta a first down because of 12 men on the field, and also moved a 4th-and-1 back to a 4th-and-6 on the final drive thanks to Orlando Pace's false start. Overall, the team only has 31 penalties for 266 yards, which both rank in the bottom third of the league. But like the turnovers, its been when and where they take place, not how many of them there are.

So expect another nail biter in Southern Ohio this Sunday. The Bengals don't blow people out, instead opting for physical games that are decided in the final minutes. The Bears don't blow people out, instead opting for games that are decided by turnovers and penalties. Which will prevail? See who I like in my Week 7 picks, winners in bold.

Green Bay at Cleveland

San Diego at Kansas City

Indianapolis at St. Louis

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

New England at Tampa Bay (in London)

San Francisco at Houston

New York Jets at Oakland

Buffalo at Carolina

Chicago at Cincinnati

Atlanta at Dallas

New Orleans at Miami

Arizona at New York Giants

Philadelphia at Washington

Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 63-27

Watch for a Wild Bear

2009-10-16T09:14:00.000-05:00

Major innovation comes along rarely in sports play calling, but when it does, it makes a big difference. Think of how much the pick-and-roll changed basketball: the point guard was cleared from his defender, switched onto another opponent, and given the option to either drive to the basket or dish it to a teammate. The pick-and-roll is one play - maybe the only one in all of sports - that when perfectly executed, it’s impossible to defend.

Last season, the Miami Dolphins had a football innovation. Well, sort of. They brought back an offense called the Single Wing, but they made some minor changes and re-named it the Wildcat. With running back Ronnie Brown behind center instead of a quarterback, it gave Brown the option of keeping the ball on a draw or handing it off to fellow back Ricky Williams. Opposing teams were thrown off guard by this formation, and Miami used it in its run to the playoffs last season.

A year later, the Wildcat has exploded onto the NFL scene. Nearly every team uses it, though still nobody does it as well as the Dolphins. In last week’s Monday Night game against the Jets, the ‘Phins ran for 103 yards out of the ‘gimmick’ formation, including the game-winning two-yard TD run by Brown with five seconds left.

This week, and this is one of the craziest predictions I’ve ever made on this blog, I’m predicting the Bears will use the Wildcat for the first time in their game against the Falcons. You want reasons why? Here’s three of them:

1) They’ve got the perfect player for it: Devin Hester. He’s no longer an elite kick/punt returner, but he would be dynamic in the backfield alongside Matt Forte. Hester is still good at finding a gap in the defense, and when he finds it, it’s over - six points. He’s also a versatile player, meaning he would know when to hand it to Forte, when to keep it, maybe even when to throw it on a trick play.

2) They are starting a six-week stretch of inter-division opponents. That means no Lions, Packers or Vikings until Nov. 29. It also means they are facing teams that are un-familiar with the Bears’ personnel. Adding a new package makes perfect sense at this time of the season, because it allows them to put more plays and formations on film for those final six weeks of the year, when the opponents know the Bears as well as anybody.

3) Atlanta isn’t a great run defense team, ranking 24th in the league with 127 rushing yards per game. Meaning they are the perfect squad to try something new against. If the Bears were playing say, Baltimore, maybe it’s not a great idea to give the ball to a wide receiver in the backfield. But a team that struggles tacking like Atlanta does is ideal for a squad trying out something new. I expect Jay Cutler to be out wide and Hester in the shotgun at least twice this Sunday.

But will the Bears win? We all remember last year’s game in the Georgia Dome, and now comes time for revenge. Find out who I like below in my Week 6 picks, winners in bold.

Houston at Cincinnati

Detroit at Green Bay

Baltimore at Minnesota

New York Giants at New Orleans

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Washington

St. Louis at Jacksonville

Philadelphia at Oakland

Arizona at Seattle

Tennessee at New England

Buffalo at New York Jets

Chicago at Atlanta

Denver at San Diego

Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 55-21

In the survival pool, I'm still alive after taking the Eagles last week. This Sunday, another green and white team, as I'm going with the Jets.

Couldn't resist

2009-10-09T12:09:00.004-05:00

Scroll down for my NFL thoughts and picks.

I had to share this picture. For anybody who roots for the Cubs and has had to listen to St. Louis fans talk about how their team is so great, how they have the most loyal and smartest fan base in the world, how guys like Pujols and LaRussa can do no wrong, how the Cardinals are the God's gift to Earth, all that crap, I present to you...

What a great way to blow a playoff game. One out to go, line drive to your new left fielder - the star acquisition that will put your team over the top - and he misjudges it. Ball hits him in the nuts, game continues, and then the immortal Mark Loretta winds up driving in the game-winner. As a Cubs fan, I would normally have sympathy for the team who choked. But it's the Cards, so I say, gag away.

I want the bye to go bye-bye

2009-10-09T10:00:00.003-05:00

Sunday in the fall is supposed to be about one thing: football. If one wanted to, they could spend 13 consecutive hours watching some type of football game, preview, recap, highlight or analysis. It’s what millions work all week for, the early afternoon shifting to the early evening to the darkness of night, all while on the couch watching grown men run around and hit each other.

That is, unless three letters get in the way: b-y-e. The dreaded bye week means your team isn’t playing, that those 53 players are most likely doing exactly the same thing you are - watching football. It’s like stubbing your toe. It’s not a big deal, next week you won’t even notice it, but at the time it happens, it really stings.

One of the four teams with the bye this week is the Bears. That means despite the fact that the team has won thee games in a row and have climbed up to second place in the NFC North, they must take the week off and force Chicagoans to do something else with their Sunday. They could rake the leaves, get some homework done, or do the next best thing to watching your favorite team, which is watch other teams. If that’s your strategy*, here are my picks for Week 5. Winners, just like always, in bold. And if you need a survival pick, go with the Eagles like I am.

*If that is indeed your strategy, I’m sorry. This week’s slate of games is just awful. I usually try to pick upsets, but this week, there was such a wide gap between favorites and underdogs, I almost went all chalk. Next Sunday will be better, I promise.

Cleveland at Buffalo

Pittsburgh at Detroit

Dallas at Kansas City

Minnesota at St. Louis

Oakland at New York Giants

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

Washington at Carolina

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Atlanta at San Francisco

New England at Denver

Houston at Arizona

Jacksonville at Seattle

Indianapolis at Tennessee

New York Jets at Miami

Last Week: 11-3

Season to Date: 46-16

Can the Olympics play cornerback?

2009-10-02T00:01:00.002-05:00

It’s Olympic mania here in the Windy City. Everywhere you turn in Chicago, there’s a ‘We Support the Bid’ sign, a newspaper article discussing something to do with today’s announcement or somebody talking about our chances at the 2016 games. It’s the biggest day the city has seen in 11 months, since Nov. 4, 2008, when Barack Obama won the election and a half-million people, myself included, jam packed into Grant Park to watch him speak to his supporters. To put it simply, today’s decision will impact Chicagoans for many years to come.

But this is a football column, not an Olympics one. But that doesn’t mean we can’t borrow from the spirit of the games and translate it to pigskin. So without further ado, here are your medalists for the first three weeks of the Bears season.

OFFENSE

Bronze- Ron Turner, offensive coordinator

I’ve been critical of the Bears’ offensive play calling before and will continue to do so if Turner continues to be clueless on how to attack opponents. In last weeks game at Seattle, with the Bears down 19-17 during the fourth quarter, Turner called not one, not two, but three consecutive runs for backup running back Garrett Wolfe. I understand giving Matt Forte a breather, but do it earlier in the game and not when the team has a 3rd-and-2 and is trailing by two. With wideouts like Hester, Knox and Bennett (more on them later), and a tight end like Olsen, I’d hope Turner one day wakes up, realizes its 2009, and starts putting some spread offense principles in the Bears attack.

Silver- Jay Cutler, quarterback

When looking over Cutler’s stats, I can’t help but wonder one thing: Why is he so bad in the first quarter? In 2009, he’s thrown for only 126 yards during the game’s first 15 minutes, by far his lowest of the four quarters. He’s also thrown no TD’s and two picks during that time frame, a bad sign for a team that wants to get off to a good start. Yet for all that, he’s been great at the end of games these past two weeks, leading the Bears to consecutive come-from-behind wins.

Gold- The wide receivers

Before the Green Bay game, if you’d told me, Lovie Smith or anybody else that cares about football that Matt Forte would be rushing for 2.5 yards a carry and have no touchdowns through week three, the Bears bandwagon would be as empty as Karl Malone’s trophy case. Yet those stats are real and the team is 2-1. How? Because of the improved play of the Bears wideouts. Devin Hester has turned into a real receiver, not just a speedster who runs fly routes. That game-winning TD grab was a very difficult catch, as the Windy City Flyer had to reach behind his head for the ball, maintain his balance and then take off for the end zone. Earl Bennett has matured into a dependable option, both on the outside and over the middle. And every ones new favorite player is Johnny Knox, the fifth round pick who is looking more and more like a future #1 receiver every time he touches the ball.

DEFENSE

Bronze- The secondary

When a secondary makes Seneca Wallace look like a legit NFL quarterback for three-plus quarters, there’s trouble. Pass coverage was a concern for the team coming into the season, and it has proven itself to be an issue through three weeks. The safeties are constantly out of position on pass plays, and have been lucky that the last two weeks, the Steelers and Seahawks have had a case of butterfingers. Cornerback isn’t much better, with Zach Bowman, Nate Vasher and Corey Graham each struggling on one side and Charles Tillman looking like he’s at 75% health on the other. Also, here’s a suggestion for Peanut: I love when you strip the ball and force fumbles, but don’t do it unless you have the tackle wrapped up. The only Seattle TD was a result of you not tackling.

Silver- The line

They come to play every week, but only occasionally do they make big plays. And that’s a problem. Week one, it was Adewale Ogunleye. Week two, it was Alex Brown. Last week, Anthony Adams and Mark Anderson got into the act. If they can all play well at the same time, the defense will go back to their dominant ways. Also, has anybody seen Tommie Harris. Maybe he’ll dive across the line of scrimmage for old times sake this Sunday and remind everybody how good #91 used to be.

Gold- The linebackers

Brian Urlacher’s done for the year. Pisa Tinoisamoa has missed the last few weeks. Hunter Hillenmeyer is banged up. So far, none of that has mattered. Everybody on the second level has stepped their game up, so much so that I don’t even think the announcers mentioned Urlahcer’s absence until they showed him on the bench during the third quarter. Lance Briggs was all over the place, as usual, causing havoc and forcing turnovers. Nick Roach has played both inside and outside well, and Jamar Williams has shown some promise. It’s good to know that at least one unit on the defense is playing as well as they can right now.

Now onto week four picks, with my winners in bold. Last week I went 11-5, pushing my overall record to 35-13.

Detroit at Chicago

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Seattle at Indianapolis

New York Giants at Kansas City

Baltimore at New England

Tampa Bay at Washington

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Oakland at Houston

Buffalo at Miami

New York Jets at New Orleans

Dallas at Denver

St. Louis at San Francisco

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Minnesota

And in my survival pool, with the Saints, Redskins and Ravens no longer eligible, I’m going with a city that starts with C, ends with O and has HICAG in the middle. DAAA BEARS

Myth vs. Truth

2009-09-25T11:53:00.003-05:00

It has only been two weeks, but there already is a separation between what we thought about the NFL going into the season and what really is taking place. Here are five examples, followed by Week 3 picks.

What We Thought: That the Patriots would pick where they left off in 2007 when Tom Brady was last healthy and be un-stoppable.

What’s Really Going On: If Buffalo kick returner Leodis McKelvin decides to take a touchback instead of bringing a kick out in Week One against New England, the Patriots are 0-2. They were completely dominated by the Jets, and both their defense and running game seem to be lost. Brady’s numbers have been pretty good, but then again, he’s already thrown 100 passes (only two other QBs have thrown over 80 passes, only one other with more than 90), so big numbers should be expected. With the Falcons this week, Baltimore next and at the surprise Broncos following that, New England could easily be 1-4 by mid-October.

What We Thought: That San Francisco would be decent with Michael Crabtree and horrible without him.

What’s Really Going On: So far for the 49ers it has been no Crabtree, no problem. San Francisco is 2-0 with wins already against perceived NFC West favorites Arizona and Seattle. It’s isn’t that the team couldn’t use the former Texas Tech star, but since he has chosen to take the idiotic route of holding out because he thinks he should be paid like the fifth player chosen in the draft even though he didn’t go until ten, the Niners are moving on without him. QB Shaun Hill has been solid, but the main offensive threat has been running back Frank Gore. A win this weekend at Minnesota would show the rest of the NFC that Samurai Mike Singletary’s team is for real.

What We Thought: That the Colts would sorely miss the presence of Marvin Harrison.

What Really Going On: Why re-sign an aging future Hall-of-Famer when you have Pierre Garcon. Who? The receiver from Mount Union, who is less than a year older but about a half-second slower than me in the 40 (one of those two previous statements are true), has had a big impact on Indy’s offense. Versus Miami last week he caught only one ball, but turned it into a 48-yard touchdown. With Garcon on one side, All Pro Reggie Wayne on the other, Dallas Clark in the slot and some dude named Peyton at quarterback, the Colts don’t seem to be missing a beat despite the loss of Harrison.

What We Though: That the 2008 Falcons and Dolphins were just a flash in the pan.

What’s Really Going On: Miami and their Wildcat was indeed a flash in the pan; add some bread crumbs, olive oil and you got yourself some fried Dolphin. The Falcons actually are as real as it gets. Matt Ryan has continued his rise along the NFL quarterbacking ladder, proving he’s one of the best in the game. Adding Tony Gonzalez sure hasn’t hurt, with the star tight end grabbing 12 passes for 144 yards and two TD’s already in ’09. Atlanta has a really tough stretch coming up in their schedule - at New England, bye, at San Francisco, the Bears on Sunday night, at Dallas, at New Orleans, Washington, at Carolina and then at the NY Giants. That’s six road games in nine weeks, with all the matchups against potentially tough opponents. So the Falcons are for real right now, but check with me again as the season goes on.

What We Thought: That the addition of Jay Cutler would open up the Bears offense.

What’s Really Going On: New year, new quarterback, same old Bears. Sure, they throw the ball some more, but that has partially been because Matt Forte has never really been able to get going thus far in ’09. But with Ron Turner still calling the offensive plays (for some reason), the attack still sputters along like a little kid trying to learn to walk. Short pass, short pass, run on third down, punt. Or short pass, run, try and go deep, punt. The play calling has usually been along those lines during the first two weeks. Will Turner open it up some more to allow Cutler to make plays? Bears fans can only hope the pre-season prediction will eventually come true.

Now for my week 3 picks, coming off an 11-5 record last week, pushing my season mark to 24-8. My picks in bold.

Washington vs. Detroit

Green Bay vs. St. Louis

San Francisco vs. Minnesota

Atlanta vs. New England

Tennessee vs. New York Jets

Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay

Cleveland vs. Baltimore

Jacksonville vs. Houston

New Orleans vs. Buffalo

Bears vs. Seattle

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati

Denver vs. Oakland

Miami vs. San Diego

Indianapolis vs. Arizona

Carolina vs. Dallas

And my survival pick of the week - New Orleans and Washington are gone - is Baltimore to whoop up the Browns.

A rightfielder leaves as a QB arrives

2009-09-21T14:57:00.001-05:00

I’ll give you five numerical reasons why Milton Bradley should shut his mouth: .257 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 61 runs scored, 95 K’s.

And for good measure, here’s one more: 10

That last number? That’s how many games the Cubs trail St. Louis in the NL Central after their Sunday night win, sans-Bradley. It’s also how much money Bradley is making this season, adding six zeros to the end.

The right fielder was suspended by team management Sunday for the remainder of the 2009 after making some ridiculous comments. Most likely, Wrigley’s right field bleachers have seen the last of Bradley in Cubbie blue. He said Saturday in a newspaper interview, about the Cubs,” You understand why they haven't won in 100 years here." This comes after taking himself out of games, calling Cubs fans racists, constantly yelling at Lou Piniella, alienating teammates, losing track of the number of outs in a game and being ejected after his first-ever at-bat in a Cubs uniform. Oh, and putting up those stats above.

Even though I disagreed with the signing when it happened - scroll down to the bottom of this column for my Cubs thoughts - I tried my best to support Bradley. Didn’t boo him when he stepped to the plate, gave him a chance to prove me wrong, did all the things a loyal fan would do for a new acquisition.

But I quit doing that when Bradley quit playing hard. My theory since day one is that the fans will support you when you are playing well and turn on you when you struggle; it’s just how the human body is programmed. Nobody likes paying $75 for a ticket to a Cubs game to see the high-paid right fielder loaf around and not try to win the game. And since they can’t get their money back, the 41,000 do the next best thing - boo. And then Bradley turns around and insults the fans and organization, the same group of people paying him $30 million over the next three years to play baseball.

I say good riddance Milton Bradley. Take your selfishness, laziness and Neifi Perez-like batting average somewhere else. I’m not blaming all of 2009’s problems on Bradley, because there is plenty of that to go around. But I am saying that it may be 101 years and counting for the Cubs to win the World Series, but I’m positive the team is much closer to the trophy without Bradley than with him.

Football Thought of the Week

It’s tough for me to say the Bears deserved to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh had more first downs, more total yards, more than twice the rushing yards, won time of possession and had fewer penalties. The Steelers also had a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, the most feared defense in the league and an opponent on the ropes in must-win mode.

Yet through all of that, the final score from rain-soaked Soldier Field read Bears 17, Steelers 14. A week after erratic play from Jay Cutler and a bone-headed special teams play cost the Bears a win at Lambeau Field, the QB’s Derrick Rose-like calm under pressure and a gift from the kicking Gods put the Bears into the ‘W’ column for the first time in ’09. It wasn’t pretty, but it worked.

There’s no question that the win came courtesy of Steelers kicker Jeff Reed, who shanked two fourth quarter kicks, putting Robbie Gould in the position of nailing the game-winner for the Bears. But just as he deserved blame last week, much of the credit has to go to Jay Cutler. Taking the Bears down the field twice in the fourth quarter, first on a TD pass to Johnny Knox (a breakout star in the receiving corps) and then on the game-winning drive, Cutler showed poise and confidence rarely seen by a Chicago signal-caller. He still hasn’t had the luxury of a good running attack - Matt Forte has a total of 84 rushing yards on the season - but Cutler seemed to do it all on his own Sunday.

Now 1-1, the Bears have one game left in their three-game gauntlet to open the season, at Seattle next Sunday. Qwest Field has always been one of the toughest places in the league for opponents to play, even when the Seahawks aren’t the greatest of teams. And with Matt Hasslebeck apparently out, they won’t be as tough as originally predicted. It helps that the team already has one win under their belt, and it was thanks to their key off-season acquisition that’s the case.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

2009-09-19T21:05:00.003-05:00

I know it's only the third week of college football, so it's kind of early to be boasting about predictions. But I'm barely right about these things, so I'd like to remind everybody what I wrote on September 1, with a post-script in italics:

Both Texas and Oklahoma will finish the regular season with a loss, meaning whoever wins the Red River Rivalry will go down at some other point. This won't stop UT from winning the Big XII South and Colt McCoy from winning the Heisman, as voters feel bad for shafting the Longhorns and their star QB in 2008. (Oklahoma lost Week 1 to BYU)
Thanks to starting a talented freshmen quarterback, USC will both win and lose a game they shouldn't. (Note: That loss won't be to the Irish in South Bend) My predictions for the Trojans -- a loss at Cal, but a close win at Ohio State. And of course, another Rose Bowl victory. (USC's freshmen QB did lead them to a win at Ohio State. But he was out due to injury in their loss to Washington)
Speaking of Notre Dame, they'll go 8-4 in the regular season followed by another New Years Day Bowl loss. L's in '09 will come against Michigan (UM has to win that one), USC, Pittsburgh and Stanford. (The Irish fell to Michigan already, but are still 2-1 on the year)
Top 5 over-rated teams: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, LSU and Florida State (The Buckeyes, Cowboys and 'Noles each have one loss)

Still plenty of time for me to be proven wrong, but so far so good.

Tough loss in cheese land

2009-09-18T01:53:00.004-05:00

Instead of a longer column, here are four expanded thoughts on the Bears-Packers game, one on the upcoming Steelers matchup, followed by Week 2 picks.

1) As much as the Green Bay loss stung - and it felt like a swarm of mosquitoes attacked after that game - the season-ending injury to Brian Urlacher was much more painful. Before the season began, a lot of writers talked about how the middle linebacker was going to have a career year. He was healthy, he was comfortable with Bob Babich as his linebackers coach and he’s surrounded by a pair of guys, Lance Briggs and Pisa Tinoisamoa, who would allow him to roam the middle of the field and make plays. During the first quarter, #54 laid a great hit on Aaron Rodgers, one of those classic Urlacher blows where he just slams into a guy like the train hitting the criminals’ bus in ‘The Fugitive’. But that hit is what probably messed up his wrist, ending his 2009 before it even began. The Bears will be OK without him, since Hunter Hillenmeyer and Nick Roach are serviceable players. But they could have been great with him, and it’s too bad that won’t happen.

2) Offensive play calling was one of the deaths of the 2008 Bears, and it appears to be happening again. Not enough blame was placed on Ron Turner for his horrendous plays in the fourth quarter, which ended up costing the Bears the win. Follow my logic here: After an impressive drive, Bears have 1st-and-Goal from the 5 with 3:48 remaining. Score is 13-12 Packers. What does Turner do? First down he hands the ball to Matt Forte, which makes perfect sense. Gain of one, making it second down on the 4. Note that Forte at this point had now rushed the ball on four consecutive plays. So what’s the second down call? You guessed it, #22 on a toss to the outside, a play that has a history of working roughly 0% of the time. No gain of course, making it third down from the four. Now Turner only has one choice, which is to throw. But Turner decides to call a play-action, which nobody wearing green & gold falls for, and sends only one receiver, Greg Olsen, out on a route. He’s surrounded, ball sails over his head, and now the Bears have to settle for Robbie Gould. A 15-13 lead could have been 20-13 (with a two-point conversion), which of course made a difference when Nate Vasher did his best Richard Pryor impression a minute later. (Get it, he got burned) If Ron Turner is smarter calling plays, the Bears may win that game, even with the late Packer TD.

3) Now onto the main topic of the week, Mr. Jay Cutler. Everybody had a prediction on how his season would unfold, but nobody predicted this. Four picks, including three in the first half, and one on the final drive of the game. Simply put, it was very Rex-like, but with the added disappointment of actual expectations. Some of the picks were the fault of receivers, some were nerves, some were just good defensive plays. And believe me, he’ll bounce back at some point this year, and he better considering the price the team paid for his services. But as Herman Edwards once famously says, ‘You play to win the game.’ As far as I’m concerned, Cutler’s 1:4 TD-to-interception ratio is no big deal compared to his 0-1 record as the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears.

4) It’s been all complaining thus far, so it’s only fair to highlight a few guys who played well Sunday night. The clear #1 is the Prince, Adewale Ogunleye. Showing the speed and power that made him a consistent double-digit sack man earlier this decade, Ogunleye recorded two sacks to go along with five pressures versus the Pack. That kind of pass rush is exactly what the Bears need to succeed this season, because we saw later in the game that they don’t have a secondary that can sit back in coverage if the team chooses to blitz. A second player who shined under the Sunday night lights was wideout Johnny Knox. Despite only making two catches, the emergency #3 receiver - Devin Aromashodu was out with a quad injury - gained 82 yards through the air. That included a 68-yard bomb down the right sideline, where Konx blew by former Heisman winner (and still very fast) Charles Woodson. A go-to deep threat was something the Bears offense lacked in 2008, but if Knox and Devin Hester can continue to make plays on the long ball, it will elevate the offense as a whole.

5) The longer I think about facing Pittsburgh this Sunday, the better I feel. Which is a surprise, considering they are the defending Super Bowl champs and the Bears are already in must-win mode. But the Steelers are on nine-days rest, which is too long in my opinion when a team is rusty to begin with to start the year. It’s the home opener of the Jay Cutler Era, which means the lakefront will be jacked up with 61,000 of Bill Swerski’s Superfans. And did I mention already the Bears are in must-win mode. I’m still picking the Bears to lose - I thought Ben Rothlisberger was one of the three best QB’s in the league before his clutch win during Week 1 - but I see another close one that goes down to the end of the fourth quarter. Key will be getting a good performance out of Matt Forte, which didn’t happen versus the Packers.

Now for my Week 2 picks, following up a 13-3 performance in the opener. My picks in bold.

Carolina at Atlanta

Minnesota at Detroit

Cincinnati at Green Bay

Houston at Tennessee

Oakland at Kansas City

New England at New York Jets

New Orleans at Philadelphia

St. Louis at Washington

Arizona at Jacksonville

Tampa Bay at Buffalo

Seattle at San Francisco

Cleveland at Denver

Pittsburgh at Bears

Baltimore at San Diego

New York Giants at Dallas

Indianapolis at Miami

And my survival team of the week, after using up the Saints last week, is...the Washington Redskins.

Lane 'Volunteers' for a whoopin

2009-09-14T09:25:00.003-05:00

Don't worry, I'll get into Bears-Packers in-depth later in the week. Two quick thoughts:

1) Jay Cutler deserves as much blame for this loss as Nathan Vasher, Pat Mannelly, the receivers who stopped their routes, etc. You can't throw four picks and expect to win on the road versus a good team.

2) While the loss stung bad, the worst news was that Brian Urlacher may need wrist surgery. No telling how long he'll be sidelined (UPDATE: He's out for the year, which is HORRIBLE news), but the defense is completely different with #54 on the bench.

Football Thought of the Week

Last Saturday's college football action was everything a fan could have hoped for. In Ann Arbor, Notre Dame and Michigan traded big plays and points for three hours, putting on a roller coaster affair that ended with a last-minute drive orchistrated by a freshmen QB making his second ever start. In Columbus, USC and Ohio State put on a game worthy of their top-10 rankings, a thrilling afair which the Buckeyes dominated and the Trojans somehow won. And in Stillwater, the most-obvious overrated team in the land fell, as Houston took out Oklahoma State.

This Saturday's college football action should be everything that a University of Florida fan could ask for. That's because the Tennessee Volunteers head into Gainseville to take on the National Champs, and oh what a game it should be. Vegas lists Florida as a 25-point favorite, and based on the history of UF coach Urban Meyer, I'll take the Gators to cover...by halftime.

Last February, when he was hired as the Vols new head coach, Lane Kiffiin talked about how excited he was to have the job. Specifically he discussed a tradition he was looking forward to taking part in somewhere down the road.

"I'm really looking forward to embracing some of the great traditions at the University of Tennessee, for instance the Vol Walk, running through the T, singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year," Kiffin said. "It will be a blast."

There's no doubt that Meyer is reminding his squad every day this week about that quote. Beating Tennessee has always been a priority for the Florida coach, a reason he's 11-1 during his Gators tenure against rivals Florida State, Georgia and Tennessee. The last two years, Florida has beaten the Vols by a combined score of 89-26. But extracting revenge is another priority. Every slight to the Gators is used as fuel, and there's no bigger slight than saying your looking forward to going into the Swamp and taking out Tim Tebow's crew.

Oh, and did I mention that Tennessee lost last week at home to UCLA and that the Gators return not only Tebow but all 11 defensive starters from last season's title winning team? 25 points should be nothing.

Honoring His Airness

2009-09-11T17:42:00.002-05:00

In honor of his Hall of Fame induction today, I wanted to have 23 interesting Michael Jordan links. Due to time constraints, that's not going to happen, so here are nine (His Barcelona Olympics number) must-read or must-see links

1) My MJ column for the blog Tremendous Upside Potential, run by my friend Ricky

2) Jordan's sit down interview with Michael Wilbon for ESPN

3) Even for Jordan, the HOF is a big deal

4) The Tribune's amazing special section on Jordan

5) Jordan's famous 1991 on Pat Ewing, accompanied by the great commentary of Red Kerr

6) Flu game highlights

7) Where does MJ rank among the greatest Chicago athletes?

8) The best Bulls writer ever chronicles The Last Dance

9) MJ's best commercial ever - or is it this one?

Scheduled mess

2009-09-10T10:09:00.002-05:00

There are two ways to examine the Bears' 2009-10 schedule. It's either the easiest in the league, as the average winning percentage of their opponents (.414) states. Or it is Darren Sproles-like, sneaky good, filled with teams that are capable of knocking the Bears off on any given Sunday. Opinions in the Windy City change as often as the weather does, and that greatly affects how to evaluate the squad. So what is the truth? There's no way to know until the games kick off.

2009 Chicago Bears schedule

On paper (or in this case, on a computer screen), the slate is tough but not impossible. Back-to-back national TV games kick things off, and three of the final four are against NFC North foes. Games against all four conference championship finalists (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Arizona and Philadelphia) are as challenging an advanced algebra degree, while the two versus the Lions and matchups with Browns and Rams are first-grade arithmetic easy. (Ex: Lions + Bears = Oh my, two wins!) Anywhere between seven and 12 wins have been mentioned, depending on what people think of the other two contenders (Minnesota and Green Bay) in the NFC North.

Yet there's one thing to remember when examining the Bears schedule: there is one constant - the Bears. If Jay Cutler plays great and the defense returns to a dominant form, it doesn't matter who is on the opposing sideline. Conversely, if Matt Forte goes down week 1 with an injury and the holes in the pass defense never get plugged, the schedule looks a lot tougher. Back on Tax Day, when the slate was first released, I predicted an 11-5 record. Now, with the season only a few days away, I'll go with the same mark. Losses will take place in weeks 2 (Pittsburgh), 7 (Atlanta), 12 (Philadelphia), 13 (Minnesota) and 15 (Baltimore). The record will be good enough to win the NFC North and be the #2 seed in the NFC come playoff time.

Hope I’m write, probably am wrong, but really who cares. It’s football season!

Now it's time for my weekly picks. Two years ago, I went 165-102, which is good but not great. Then, like the Jaguars, Browns and Cowboys, I took a step back in 2008. A record of 160-107 last season didn't sit well wit me over the summer, so I'm back to do better in '09. Here's who I have in the opening weekend.

My pick in bold

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Miami at Atlanta

Denver at Cincinnati

Minnesota at Cleveland

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Detroit at New Orleans

Dallas at Tampa Bay

Philadelphia at Carolina

Kansas City at Baltimore

NY Jets at Houston

Washington at NY Giants

San Francisco at Arizona

St. Louis at Seattle

Bears at Green Bay

Buffalo at New England

San Diego at Oakland

I've also decided to bring back my survival pool, where I will pick one guaranteed winner each week, with the catch being that you can only pick a team once. This week's pick is...the New Orleans Saints.

Pigskin Madness, part II

2009-09-08T10:00:00.003-05:00

Football Thought of the Week

This is part II of my 2009-10 NFL preview. Here is part I.

AFC

East: 1) New England 2) Miami 3)Buffalo 4) NY Jets

Who knows if Tom Brady will stay healthy, but if they get any more than one quarter out of him this season, the Patriots will make their presence felt in the AFC. The Dolphins, who won the division a year ago, will take the standard step back that surprise teams tend to do with tougher schedules. Buffalo and New York each could contend, but I don't see enough defense from the Bills or offense from the Jets.

North: 1) Pittsburgh 2) Baltimore 3) Cincinnati 4) Cleveland

The Steelers were my pick to win it all last year, and sure enough, they did. I'm still on the Pittsburgh bandwagon, even though I see a bit of a downturn in '09. Their dominance over Baltimore gives them the division over to the Ravens, who I think could be even tougher this year thanks to the impressive running of Ray Rice. Based on Hard Knocks, I see the Bengals actually contending for a while before Carson Palmer gets hurt. That will leave them with about seven wins, four more than the Browns will grab.

South: 1) Indianapolis 2) Houston 3) Tennessee 4) Jacksonville

I'm as likely of nailing the correct order of these four teams through research as I would be picking the names out of a hat; they're just that even. Despite a new head coach, I'll take Peyton and the Colts to come in first, followed closely by the ever-improving Texans. If Houston can ever figure out how to win in the early part of the season, or Matt Schaub can stay healthy, they'll win at least 10 games. The Titans will see a slip from last season, even though their D and run game are still really good. And last is the Jaguars, who I actually think are underrated, but just not good enough to win the South.

West: 1) San Diego 2) Oakland 3) Kansas City 4) Denver

In the 2008 regular season, the Chargers went 5-1 in their division and 3-7 versus the rest of the league. Expect similar numbers this year. I think San Diego is talented but overrated, yet still light years better than the other three. The Raiders come in second, if their coaches can stop fighting each other. Look for Darren McFadden to have a big season. I'm interested to see what K.C. does with a new QB and reshaped defense. And last but not least are the Broncos, who I would once again like to thank for trading Jay Cutler.

PLAYOFFS

NFC

3) New Orleans over 6) Green Bay
5) NY Giants over 4) Seattle

5) NY Giants over 1) Philadelphia
2) Chicago over 3) New Orleans

5) NY Giants over 2) Chicago

AFC

3) Indianapolis over 6) Houston
5) Baltimore over 3) San Diego

1) New England over 5) Baltimore
2) Pittsburgh over 3) Indianapolis

2) Pittsburgh over 1) New England

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 23

I can see you asking yourself, "Three consecutive road victories for the G-Men on the way to the Super Bowl? Again?" Yes, it's an almost identical road N.Y. took to the 2008 big game, and that turned out pretty well for them. I think the Giants' receivers will get better as the year progresses, and by playoff time, they'll be one of the most dangerous corps' in football. The Steelers come close to repeating, but Eli tops Ben in another classic Super Bowl.

NOTE: Here is the upcoming schedule for a busy week here on the blog.

Thursday: Bears schedule breakdown and Week 1 NFL picks
Friday: Honoring new Hall-of-Famer Michael Jordan

Pigskin Madness, part I

2009-09-07T10:00:00.001-05:00

Football Thought of the Week

After pouring through most of Sports Illustrated's mammoth NFL preview issue, reading up about every team online and watching a good share of pre-season action (as much pre-season action as one sane person can without getting paid for it), I believe it is time for my 2009-10 NFL predictions.

Before I get started though, there is one key word I want to emphasise: madness. Usually reserved for the great month of March, those seven letters are going to define September, October, November, December, January and the first Sunday in February this season. Example? Of the eight division winners last season, would anybody be shocked if seven of them didn't re-peat this year? Only San Diego seems to be a lock. Of the four teams that made it to championship weekend last year, all four seem to have gotten worse over the summer.

Tom Brady is healthy, Mike Vick is back and Brett Favre is too (though he never really left, unfortunately). There's no question who the best running back in the NFL is (AP), but there are about five guys gunning for that number two spot, none of whom are named Tomlinson. The NFC North is now QB Central, while Peyton Manning and the Colts may be the worst team in the AFC South. And of all things, a scoreboard has take Terrell Owens' place in Dallas as the must-mention Cowboys distraction. Welcome back to football, where this season is sure to be pure madness.

Today is part I, the NFC and awards. Tuesday will be part II, the AFC and playoff picks.

NFC

East: 1)Philadelphia 2) NY Giants 3) Dallas 4) Washington

The Giants run the ball, play great D and have an adequate QB in Eli Manning. What they lack though is a game-breaker on offense, something the Eagles possess in DeSean Jackson (and Brian Westbrook, and maybe Jeremy Maclin, and maybe Mike Vick). Philly's defense is a question, especially in the secondary, but I see them grabbing 10 wins, good enough for the division title.

North: 1) Chicago 2) Green Bay 3) Minnesota 4) Detroit

No question here, the Lions will be the most improved team in the entire NFL; they should eclipse last year's win total by Thanksgiving. The top of the division looks like the NFC's most competitive, with the Bears, Pack and Vikes all aiming for the playoffs. Call me a homer - you wouldn't be the first - but I like Chicago. A favorable schedule (G.B. and Minnesota both come to Soldier Field in December), a much-improved offense and a rejuvenated D should earn the Bears 11 wins, while the other two will fight it out for second place.*

*In-depth Bears breakdown coming later in the week.

South: 1) New Orleans 2) Atlanta 3) Carolina 4) Tampa Bay

For some reason, I'm always a sucker for picking the Saints. The combo of Drew Brees, talented receivers, a good running game and a defense that can't possibly be worse than the 2008 version has me thinking that N.O. can make a playoff run. The Falcons and Panthers each will see a drop-off from last year's post-season births, because I have my doubts if Matt Ryan and the Carolina run game can repeat their success.

West: 1) Seattle 2) San Francisco 3) Arizona 4) St. Louis

It's not because they lost the Super Bowl that I think the Cardinals will return to their rightful spot at the bottom of the division; it's because I don't think they are very good. Outside of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin, this team doesn't have many noteworthy players. And Warner seems doomed for a letdown year. Seattle won't be great, but the 'Hawks should be better than everybody else out West.

Award winners

MVP - Drew Bree, New Orleans - He should have won it in 2006 and maybe should have won it last year as well. It will be tough to deny him this year if he puts up similar numbers and the Saints make the playoffs.

Defensive POY - Ed Reed, Baltimore - Simply put, no defender impacts the game as much as Reed does as the center fielder for the dominant Ravens D. He was a beast last year and will do it again this season.

Offensive ROY - Knowshon Moreno, Denver - This is a random guess, but for the sake of my fantasy football team, I hope it turns true. With the skill guys on the Broncos, they'd be dumb not to give him the ball 25 times per game.

Defensive ROY - Aaron Curry, Seattle - Smart linebacker + already talented team + weak opponents = big numbers for the former Wake Forest star.

College kickoff 2009

2009-09-01T15:33:00.004-05:00

You feel that? That's September air we're breathing, which can only mean two things: 1) Going back to school and 2) Football season is upon us. High school football kicked off last Friday (at least here in Illinois it did), college football begins this Thursday and the NFL starts a week after that. With Tim Tebow's return, Jay Cutler's arrival and a horrible Cubs team, I am more than ready for some pigskin action.

Just as I've done the last few seasons, I will be posting my weekly NFL picks on the blog, along with a Monday 'Football Thought of the Week'. And just as I did with 'Thought of the Day' over the summer, the picks and football ramblings will be labeled, so that you can go back through the archives and see my wonderful prognostication skills. To kick things off, here are some predictions for the upcoming college football season.

Football Thought of the Week

Despite history saying otherwise, Florida will finish 14-0 and win the National Title. No team from the SEC has finished undefeated and won the National Championship since Tennessee in 1998 (Aubun ran the table in '04 but didn't play for the crystal trophy), but the Gators are so stacked, I don't see them falling in 2009. The offense will have sort through some kinks at first, due to the loss of receivers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy. But with easy opponents early on, a dominating defense and of course Tebow, the Gators should be rolling by the time the meat of their schedule begins. One game to watch out for: Oct. 17 versus Arkansas. Coming off a tough game at LSU, the Gators better be ready for the Hogs.
Behind the steady play of Darryl Clark and ferocious defense, Penn State improves upon their impressive 2008 and runs the table in '09. Their toughest game isn't the November 7 showdown versus Ohio State in Happy Valley, but instead road games at Michigan (Oct. 24) and Michigan State (Nov. 21). Survive the Great Lake State and JoePa's squad will play for a National Title.
Both Texas and Oklahoma will finish the regular season with a loss, meaning whoever wins the Red River Rivalry will go down at some other point. This won't stop UT from winning the Big XII South and Colt McCoy from winning the Heisman, as voters feel bad for shafting the Longhorns and their star QB in 2008.
Thanks to starting a talented freshmen quarterback, USC will both win and lose a game they shouldn't. (Note: That loss won't be to the Irish in South Bend) My predictions for the Trojans -- a loss at Cal, but a close win at Ohio State. And of course, another Rose Bowl victory.
Speaking of Notre Dame, they'll go 8-4 in the regular season followed by another New Years Day Bowl loss. L's in '09 will come against Michigan (UM has to win that one), USC, Pittsburgh and Stanford.
Top 5 over-rated teams: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, LSU and Florida State
Top 5 under-rated teams: Penn State, TCU, Kansas, West Virginia and Arkansas (and potentially Northwestern if they can find a reliable running back)
A few high-profile coaching jobs will open up this winter, most notably at Miami and Colorado. Also former rivals Bobby Bowden (Florida State) and Steve Spurrier (South Carolina) will both retire from college football.
Conference champs: ACC- Virginia Tech, Big Ten- Penn State, Big XII- Texas, Big East- West Virginia, Pac-10- USC, SEC- Florida
Heisman winner: Colt McCoy, Texas (Top vote getter besides McCoy, Tebow and Bradford is Penn State QB Darryl Clark
National Championship: Florida 31, Penn State 14

Waiving a white flag

2009-08-25T23:29:00.004-05:00

Usually I post my Most Valuable Cubs list later in the season: in both 2007 and 2008 the column went up on September 25. But with the team nose-diving faster than Brett Favre's legacy and football/work/school about to begin (priorities in that order), I felt it was best to get the list out of the way. So here they are, the 30 most valuable Cubs of 2009.

30- A 27-way tie between all the guys who were injured (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Angel Guzman, Rich Harden, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Reed Johnson), not interested in playing baseball (Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol), bad acquisitions (Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, Aaron Miles, Milton Bradley, Koyie Hill, Joey Gathright, Tom Gorzelanny, Jon Grabow, David Patton) and just not very good (Bobby Scales, Mike Fontenot, Kouske Fukudome, Andres Blanco, Kevin Hart, Sam Fuld, Micah Hoffpauir, Jeff Samardizja).

3- Jake Fox-- The team's top prospect seemingly for the last five years, Fox finally got called up to the show and proved his worth. In 58 games (remember, there's still another 40 games left in the season), Fox has hit .305 with nine homers and 34 driven in; keep up that pace over 162 games and that's 25 homers and 95 RBI. Plus he has played all over the field (left, right, third and occasionally catcher) and hasn't really embarrassed himself. He is more of an American League-type player, but unless the Cubs can get some real value for him, I hope he's starting on Opening Day 2010.

2- Randy Wells-- Another player Cubs fans had heard about for a while, but never actually thought was a real talent until he came up to the Northside. Since his call up on May 8, Wells has gone 9-6 with an ERA under 2.85. And of those six losses, he only allowed more than four earned runs once. Wells should be back in the rotation next spring, most likely taking free-agent-to-be Rich Harden's job.

1- Derrek Lee-- It really is a miracle the Cubs were in the NL Central race for so long, considering Lee was the only hitter who was swinging the bat well all year. His power seems to have returned after an extended hiatus, as his 24 home runs lead the team and surpass the blasts he hit in both '07 (22) and '08 (20). Lee is also on pace to exceed his RBI totals from those years, even though the hitters in front of him have struggled. I was down on DLee when the year began, but his leadership and poise during this tough season have restored my support in one of baseball's most underrated, and best, all-around players.

Honorable mention- Sean Marshall, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot. Not bad enough to be in the tie and not good enough to get your own blurb.

I'm ready for some football

2009-08-24T15:48:00.002-05:00

Rufus T. Firefly: Awfully decent of you to drop in today. Do you realize our army is facing disastrous defeat? What do you intend to do about it?
Chicolini: I've done it already.
Firefly: You've done what?
Chicolini: I've changed to the other side.
Firefly: So you're on the other side, eh? Well, what are you doing over here?
Chicolini: Well, the food is better over here.

That had no connection to anything else in this post, other than it made me laugh. Here are some links I've enjoyed in the past few days...

-The great John Wooden still provides wisdom, even at age 99.

-My buddy Ricky breaks down the Bears pre-season victory.

-Slate analyzes SI's Peter King and his view of Brett Favre.

-My January post on advice for the new Cubs owner.

-Is DWade the best Chicago baller ever? Scoop investigates.

The return of Old Man Favre

2009-08-20T01:27:00.002-05:00

Flashback: Here's a Top Ten post I wrote for Top Ten Chicago Sports way back on May 8, 2009. Crazy how much of it still holds up...

Top Ten reasons Brett Favre to the Vikings is good for the Bears

Rumor has it that Brett Favre is out for revenge. Even though reports came out yesterday that he’s going to say retired, chances are he’ll change his mind by next week. John Madden’s man-crush was supposedly talking with the Minnesota Vikings about joining their team so he can get back at his old team, the Green Bay Packers, who told him to go away last summer. Which team benefits most from this? Da Bears. Here are ten reasons why Bears fans should be excited about the possibility of having #4 back in the division.

10. May lead to less rushing from Vikings

Adrian Peterson is a running back, probably the best in the NFL. If the Vikings and coach Brad Childress were smart, he’d get the ball to AP 30 times a game. Brett Favre is a quarterback whose best seasons were a decade ago. If the Vikings and coach Childress were smart, he’d throw the ball as little as possible. Thankfully Childress isn’t smart and signing Farve is sure to make Minnesota a pass-happy team.

9. Confused Packer fans

Imagine Derek Jeter suiting up for the Red Sox or Tyler Hansbrough slapping the floor at Cameron Indoor wearing Duke blue. That’s what it will be like if Favre plays for the Vikings. Green Bay fans won’t know if they should root for their favorite team or the greatest player in their franchise’s history. This may not help the Bears directly, but it will be hilarious watching the Cheese-heads argue with themselves about where their loyalty lies.

8. Takes pressure off Jay Cutler

Having Brett Favre back in the NFC North immediately takes the spotlight off the Bears new signal-caller. All preview stories on the division will lead with the Favre, with the second story being Green Bay’s reaction to Favre. The Bears biggest trade in decades will be pushed to the back, which means Cutler should be able to learn the offense and adjust to his new teammates without the pressure of intense media scrutiny.

7. Wasted draft picks

In the 2006 Draft, the Vikings took QB Tarvaris Jackson in the second round. A couple years later, they took another quarterback, John David Booty, in the fifth round. Then over the winter, Minnesota traded a fourth round pick for yet a third quarterback, Sage Rosenfels. That’s a lot of draft picks to use for a position that will end up going to a player that will turn 40 in October.

6. Interceptions

If you thought Rex Grossman was irritating throwing picks, take a peek at #4. No player threw more interceptions than Favre’s 22 in 2008, and only once since 2004 has he thrown more touchdowns than interceptions. That’s good news for opposing defenses, bad news for Minnesota wideouts Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin.

5. He’s bad in cold weather

In four December games last year with the Jets, Favre threw a grand total of two touchdowns and eight interceptions; New York went 1-3. The year before, in a December game at Solider Field, Favre threw for only 153 yards and tossed another two interceptions. Call it a coincidence, but the Vikings visit to Chicago in 2009 is on the Monday night of December 28. Better pack your gloves Brett.

4. Makes NFC North must-see

The Bears trade for Cutler was the biggest NFL story of the off-season. The Lions drafting Matt Stafford #1 and giving him the biggest signing bonus in league history was pretty important too. Then you add Favre returning to the Vikigs, creating an Aaron Rodgers vs. Brett Favre / apprentice vs. teacher battle, and the black and blue division got a lot more interesting than it was when 2008 ended.

3. Brett vs. Lovie

People have this perception that Favre dominated the Bears over his career in green and gold. But since Loive Smith’s hiring in 2004, the Bears were 6-2 against Favre’s Packers. One of those losses was the 2006 season finale on New Years Eve, where the Chicago defense rested in the second half and Rex Grossman refused to prepare because he had to figure out where to party. Lovie may not be the most popular coach these days, but his ability to consistently beat the Favre counts for something.

2. Age

Of the eight division winning quarterbacks in 2008, only one - Kurt Warner - was over the age of 35. Favre is 39, set to reach the four-decade mark in October. Combine the age with the wear and tear of playing in 291 consecutive regular season and playoff games, and Brett Favre is John McCain old in football terms. If he has a season like Warner’s ‘08, the Bears are screwed. But if he acts like McCain in ’08, well, we all know how that turned out.

1. Gives us our enemy back

We might not like to admit it, but Bears fans kinda missed Favre last year. We missed the way he used to throw that bullet pass between two defenders for a Green Bay touchdown and follow it up by missing a wide open receiver and throwing a pick. We missed that little smirk of his when he would take a big hit and pretend like it didn’t hurt him. So having him back in the division will be good. Plus it buys some more time to build up hatred of Aaron Rodgers.

Five guys on my mind

2009-08-17T12:10:00.004-05:00

Thought of the Day

Five guys in the news these days, and my quick thoughts on all of them...

Usain Bolt: 100 meters in 9.58 seconds; are you serious? It takes that long for me to write and for you to read this very sentence. Last year in Beijing, people criticized the Jamaican star for showboating at the end of his gold-medal winning run, not hustling through the finish line. Maybe he did that not to show off himself, but to give everybody else a slight chance to hold the world record for a little while before Bolt destroyed it. Usually when world records like these are broken, its by a .01 of second or something. Bolt chopped .11 off the 9.69 he posted in China. I rarely cover track-and-field on this blog, but this is just too impressive to pass up. (Sorry, couldn't find a good video in English.)

Jay Cutler: Number 6 didn't have the most impressive debut I'd ever seen Saturday night (5 for 10, 64 yards, one pick against the Bills). Then again, it was preseason and the Bears' two best weapons, Matt Forte and Greg Olsen, didn't suit up. Still it would have been nice to see him complete some longer throws, look off defenders like I've heard he's been doing in training camp and not call out Devin Hester post-game for mis-reading a play. My excitement level for Cutler and the Bears this season is still 15 out of 10, but the Buffalo performance wasn't exactly one for the time capsule.

Tiger Woods: Just like anybody else in life, the world's greatest golfer is entitled to a bad day. Unfortunately for Woods, his bad day happened on the afternoon of the fourth round of the PGA Championship. Tiger only cares about four tournaments of the year: The Masters, the U.S. Open, the British Open and the PGA. This year he was a Aaron Miles-like 0-for-4. His 71 on Saturday was a bit of surprise, but the 75 he shot on Sunday cost him the trophy, giving it up to previously unknown Y.E. Yang. Tiger wants to be the all-time greatest, but his bad day last weekend may haunt him for a long while.

Mike Vick: I've said for a long while that Vick deserves a second chance to play in the NFL. He has served his time, paid his debt for society, and now should be allowed to put his life back together. So as you'd expect, I was pleased to hear that he'd signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. (I'd have actually prefered an AFC team for Vick, but you can't have everything) Going to a team with a stable option at QB, an experienced head coach and solid playmakers all across the field allows Vick to have a smoother transition back into pro football. He'll be a dangerous weapon for Philly, and I'd expect more than one team to regret not signing him as the season progresses.

Kevin Gregg: Nothing really to say here, other than I hate the Cubs closer more and more every time I see him pitch. Number one off-season priority for whoever owns the team this winter is finding a new closer. (And no, after the way he's pitched this season, Carlos Marmol is not an option.)

Steroid or title

2009-08-12T23:11:00.002-05:00

Another reason the Sports Guy is the true voice of the fan. I had actually discussed this with a friend about a month ago, and Simmons couldn't have recapped any better. Damn I hate you Alex Gonzalez.

Any Cubs fan will tell you they are still recovering from the Bartman Game. Any Giants fan will tell you they are still recovering from their team's unraveling in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. The 2003 Cubs were led by Sammy Sosa. The 2002 Giants were led by Barry Bonds. Now, you'd think both fan bases would say, "Looking back now, it doesn't hurt as nearly much as it should given what happened with Sosa/Bonds after the fact. In a weird way, we are off the hook! We were saved from an asterisk title!"

Nope. They remain devastated. So crushing losses can't be de-tainted, but tremendous victories can still be tainted. Confusing, right? That's why I don't believe in asterisks. The Cubs and Giants fans would have switched places with the '04 or '07 Red Sox in a heartbeat. That isn't to completely forgive what happened. I will never watch a Manny/Papi highlight from 2004 or 2007 again without 0.0001 percent of my brain thinking ... you know. (The shadow again.) Would I do it all over again? Of course. Anything for a title.

-From Bill Simmons' column on ESPN.com on the David Ortiz situation

A little hoops talk

2009-08-07T18:01:00.003-05:00

Thought of the Day

Some notes -and a link- on the Bulls 2009-2010 schedule, thanks to Pro Basketball News:

The Eastern Conference team with the longest trip is the Bulls - not their six-game "Circus Trip" in November but a seven-game jaunt in January. Only four other East teams have one trip of six games.

The Hornets have a league-low 16 sets of back-to-back games, while the Bobcats, Bulls and Pistons all have a league-high 23.

The teams with the hardest schedules are the Clippers (22 back-to-backs, three long trips) and the Bulls (23 back-to-backs, two long trips).

Bulls 13 national TV games, nine on TNT and four on ESPN. ESPN viewers will never see the United Center; all those games are on the road.

The great Sam Smith breaks down the schedule

My opinion: The Bulls have a good, but not great, team. Losing Ben Gordon hurts, but a one through five of Rose, Salmons, Deng, Thomas and Noah is solid, and a bench of Hinrich, Miller, Pargo and Johnson isn't too shabby. Last year the Bulls finished 7th in the East at 41-41. This years team is better, but then again, so is nearly every team in the conference. I say going .500 again seems right about right.