Shooting in the Dark

The New Blog

2006-11-19T14:53:00.000-07:00

Yep, it's up. Also, I have registered a domain name, so the site name has changed. It is still a bit of a work in prgress, but a lot nicier in my opinion. I have some things to do there, but it is functional, and runnin....

Here is the link:

http://theliberalgambler.com/WordPress/

This week...

2006-11-13T08:30:00.000-07:00

I will be traveling to Reno, Nevada today on business and will be there the rest of the week. I have a few posts swirling in my head that want out, and I have been noodling with a site design change.

I am thinking about converting the blog to a different host, and could use a few recommendations. I have looked at Word Press and Movable Type, but I'm not sure I want to pay fees. I would be interested to hear from anyone who has done this before, what their experiences have been.

Any pros and cons? Any pitfalls? Any comments would be appreciated, site traffic has picked up dramatically, and I am considering doing several things associated with that. I am also interested in a multi-page blog, where I could pull together another blog, and possibly separate out some topics. I may also, have some guest writing done.

Thanks

Hayworth Gains Again....but Barely

2006-11-11T18:19:00.000-07:00

At the end of today, JD Hayworth has picked up a total of 265 votes in early, absentee and provisional ballots. Mitchell still maintains a lead over Hayworth of 5,667 votes.

Yes, Hayworth is gaining slightly on Harry Mitchell in the balloting, but so far, his average gain has been less than 100 votes per day. If that remains the case, then Mitchell will win the election in the end.

The only way for Hayworth to pick up a win here now is to average well over a 5 to 6 hundred vote gain per day, which remains highly unlikely.

Hayworth should concede this race.

Doooooooooooooooooooooood!!!!!!!!

2006-11-11T12:22:00.000-07:00

Avoid Hayworth Hysteria

2006-11-10T22:56:00.000-07:00

Okay, I see from a very recent post on Daily Kos, that an individual is beginning to get a bit worried about an election theft in CD-5. It isn't going to happen, and here is why.

First of all, Helen Purcell has been the County Recorder for many years and has been consistently fair. Secondly, there are observers and individual volunteers that count these ballots present from both Political Parties. There is no room for funny business.

In addition, the ballot numbers being tossed around (like 200,000, etc...) are the total absentee and provisional ballots outstanding for all of Maricopa County, and yeah, while we are out here in the desert, Maricopa County is one big place (4th largest County in America). Six out of Eight Arizona Congressional Districts have ballots outstanding from Maricopa County. CD5 does not boast the largest population percentage in Maricopa County.

Estimates are that of the 200,000 ballots outstanding in Maricopa County, there would be about 30,000 to 40,000 that cover CD5 (rough estimate on my part, backed by recent media articles). Now, of these 40,000 ballots, several thousand have been counted in recent days. This is not done by hand necessarily, as Maricopa County uses optical scanners. Voters envelopes are verified, then opened and the ballots fed into machines and counted.

In the 3 days since the election, J D Hayworth has picked up a total of 149 votes and Harry Mitchell still leads by 5,783 votes as of this Friday night. At this rate, it is just about impossible that Hayworth will gain enough votes to make up this margin.

In addition, you can bet that the Democratic Party has people keeping a very close eye on the count.

Chill. Put pressure on Hayworth to concede, sure, but even if he doesn't and simply fades into the night, Harry Mitchell will be the next U S Congressman from CD5 in Arizona.

Hehe....get it?

2006-11-10T19:21:00.000-07:00

Day Number Three of the Hayworth Concession Watch

2006-11-10T19:12:00.000-07:00

November 10th...Harry Mitchell still leads by 5,783 Votes after another day of ballot counting.

It's time to concede Hayworth.

Senate Changes: A Series Of Tubes

2006-11-10T12:00:00.000-07:00

The United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation will also see a major shift in policy with the likely promotion of Senator Inouye to the Chairmanship over Ted "the internet is a series of tubes" Stevens.

This is a huge victory for Net Neutrality. In addition, this is a victory for stem cell research, which we all know of course starts with some kind of tube.

BRILLIANT!!!!

2006-11-10T09:01:00.000-07:00

Hey I know, let's send Lincoln Chaffee to head the United Nations!

Sorry, feeling kind of short and blurby today....man have I got a headache.

Hayworth Gains On Harry Mitchell!!

2006-11-10T08:49:00.000-07:00

Okay, that headline was a pretty cheap trick, but it's actually true...with an additional 5,527 Ballots counted in the CD5 Race, JD Hayworth has picked up a truly AMAZING 23 votes on Harry Mitchell.

This leaves about 29,000 ballots to be counted and a deficit of over 6,000 votes. Mitchell, intends to head to Congress for Orientation and has tapped former Congressman Sam Coppersmith to begin working on a transition.

Senate Changes: Environment

2006-11-09T22:04:00.000-07:00

I will be posting a few of these over the next several days.

With the United States Senate going to the Democrats, we are going to see wholesale changes in government policy.

First up: The Environment and Public Works Committee

Before November 7th, this was headed up by Seantor James Inhofe of Oklahoma who once said, "global warming is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people."

After November 7th, meet your new Chairperson, Senator Barbara Boxer

Remember that recently the State of California just passed sweeping environmental quality changes, and now Senator Boxer would like to see this legislation become a pattern for the nation.

The general public will now most likely regain access to the EPA's library collections.

The Endangered Species Act should also stand.

The Senator will very much lay out the groundwork for a green revolution in America, of course it will take some time due to the fact that Bush has two more years in office, however the table may be set nicely for 2008.

Set The Agenda, Force The Issues and Fullfill The Mandate

2006-11-09T21:51:00.000-07:00

There is a lot to fix. Throw everything at this white house, as fast as possible. Fix it all. Go after it, and anywhere that Bush wavers, simply attack. Of course work towards compromise where necessary, but know that there are some very large expectations placed upon the Democratic Party after this election. It's basicaly called hope. Perform successfully, and the strength of this party will only grow larger. Force this President to use his veto in the next 2 years.

Just Do It.

Hayworth to Prolong His Defeat, Ultimately Embarras Himself....Harry Mitchell Demonstrates That He is A Gentleman

2006-11-09T16:02:00.000-07:00

According to recent articles, there are still a lot of votes to be counted, and they should be, and I believe this is just one reason why Harry Mitchell has not announced his ultimate victory over Hayworth.

CD5 is a dominate Republican Congressional District, however let's look at some of the numbers here. First, there are 35,000 Ballots outstanding in CD5. A portion of these ballots are Provisional (approx. 7,000 in Maricopa County..give 1,000 of those to CD5). In order to overcome his vote deficit, JD Hayworth would have to take at least 69% of all of these outstanding votes.

Is that possible? I believe the voter registration voter Registration edge for Republicans in CD5 stands at about 65% total. This means that JD Hayworth would need to get a pretty good percentage of early ballot crossover votes by Democrats to gain a victory here.

Given the environment of this election, and the fact that Harry himself garnered many, many Republican crossover votes in this election, this is not a likely scenario for JD to win on absentee votes. Even if the Republican party was successful in targeting Republican JD voters 100% of the time, he would still not overcome Mitchell's lead.

I know it's not 'officially' over, but JD must be on crack.

Arizona Along with Other Democratic Governers...

2006-11-09T11:39:00.000-07:00

...should call upon the Democratic majority in Congress to insist on funding federal mandates. There has been some talk that this lame duck Congressional post election session may leave the 2007 budgeting process up to the Democratic majority in order to delay some of the items on Democrats agendas and leave the Dems to deal with the mess that is the 2007 budget. This may also force Dems to look to raising taxes to present a balanced budget to the President and basically "clean up" the mess left by this outgoing "do-nothing" Congress.

Well, fine. Bring it on, and in the process the Democratic majority, along with the Governors of the States of this Union should become very vocal in insisting upon the Federal Government funding its mandates to the States. No Child Left Behind, The Clear Act, Real-ID and SCAAP along with many others should either be gutted, scrapped or funded.

Shifting the federal tax burden to the States is a practice that should be eliminated. If you pass it, and/or require the States to enforce/implement it, you should fund it period.

There is no doubt a great deal of work to be done across this Country by this new Congress, but I believe that they are up to the task.

Arizona Thoughts

2006-11-08T22:04:00.000-07:00

The following are some thoughts about the recent election in Arizona.

First of all, it appears that the far religious right agenda may not only be dead nationally, but dead in this State as well. There are several things that are encouraging about this, and some of them will be of a benefit to the church. First of all, churches need to focus on their real mission in life, and that is not promoting political agendas. Government in America is designed to work for all people, and not just for the few. This means that the government must take a broader outlook to promote life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and not push laws that restrict such freedom.

The defeat of prop 107 is a prime example.

In addition, it seems that voters are very compassionate in Arizona, as long as you are here legally, or don't happen to smoke. Voters in Arizona and elsewhere will not tolerate corrpuption, or other misconduct, and this crosses Party lines.

Voters also need to have a compelling reason to vote someone out of office, and a compelling reason to vote someone in. There were several campaigns that had difficulty making this case to many voters. In addition, many Arizona voters will cross party lines in specific races, but there are limits to the number of races where this will happen.

The Arizona Democratic party, very much needs to develop a strategy that places candidates on the ballot in each and every race regardless of the voter registration numbers by district. Finding people willing to run, and live with the short 2 year terms at a low salary is a problem.
Unfortunatley, the salary increse did not go through for Arizona legislators, but maybe the new minimum wage law can be applied, and their salaries could rise...of course, they would need to punch a timeclock.

The Arizona Democratic Party needs to become much more engaged with the Legislative Districts, and assemble ballot signature lists for potential candidates to streamline the ballot qualification process for those who wish to run.

In addition, in 2010, we need real competitve redistricting that does not capitulate to any one interest group or political Party. This will be a tall order, and is quite some time away, but it very much needs to happen.

The Arizona Democratic Party should also work to recruit "fighting Dem" candidates at the local level. I can think of a few out there, but whether they have that desire would remain to be seen.

More Independent voters in Arizona may be ready to declare themselves to a Party and they should be pursued to re-register in this State.

I have one last suggestion, and it would lead to an increased and more engaged voter in Primaries, and that is to place 50% of all ballot Propositions on the Primary Ballots to encourage and give a reason for more voters to come to the polls, especially if they do not have candidates in races. (This will also help Parties to identify voters simpathetic to their cause for general election targeting).

This was a terrific election for Democrats, but now all elected Democrats must earn the trust and respect of the public. This is what I am most looking forward to seeing over the next 2 years.

Bush No Longer The "Decider", Now the "Assessor"

2006-11-08T11:21:00.000-07:00

George Bush is now "assessing" himself according to today's speech. Perhaps he will be "assessing" others in his Administration beyond Rumsfeld. How about Rove.

Even more amazing, is his comment that this was a surprise to him. Holy cow, bet that hit him like a ton of bricks. Obviously, the guy likes to be told those things that he likes to hear.

Oh, and where's JD?

Ouch

2006-11-08T10:46:00.000-07:00

Punch Drunk

A Very Shrewd Move

2006-11-08T10:25:00.000-07:00

House Speaker Pelosi just offered the olive branch of bipartisanship to President Bush and Republicans remaining in Congress. Should Bush now come forward with 'stay the course' in Iraq, he will be the one laying out the ground work for partisan bickering.

Very, very shrewd politically. I'm looking forward to Bush's reponse this afternoon.

"This is not about getting even, it's about moving America forward."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

kudos

The Democratic Party: A Cautionary Tale

2006-11-08T09:39:00.000-07:00

The Democratic Party must be very careful not to believe the Republican spin that the party won the House by putting forward a more "conservative" Democrat. This may lead some within the Party to declare that for this Party to survive and grow, that it must move towards the middle on the issues.

The fact of the matter is, is that for the Party to survive and maintain it's newfound majority, it will need to maintain strong working relationships with the Progressive wing (the reverse is also true). We should all unite as "Fighting Dems" and work together for the mandate of CHANGE that this country's voters have given to this Party.

So Many Thoughts Last Night...

2006-11-08T09:20:00.000-07:00

and my internet goes down.

What a night. Virtually a clean sweep and the message that voters are sending in this country could not be louder, but will Bush listen?

In Arizona, we have a split Congressional delegation now, with 4 Dems and 4 Republicans...simply amazing, and the cherry on top is that Hayworth has slinked off into the sunset without even a thanks to his supporters....what a guy.

Janet Napolitano has proven that Arizona has thirsted for a leader who can effectively run State Government without scandal...she is the first in quite some time, and the voters rewarded her with a simply amazing margin of victory.

There is no question (never was) about Jim Pederson's commitment to Democratic causes and to the betterment of this country. He put so much on the line for this State, a true patriot. Hopefully, a Webb and Tester victory will render Kyl moot.

While there were some dissappointments, Arizona voters in large measure have shown that they have some compassion for gays and farm animals, but not for illegal immigrants. They also sent a message in part that they would not stand for corruption, except in the case of Rick Renzi who will return to Congress.

It was also simply amazing to me that voters paid quite a bit of attention in this election and did not pass both 'anti-smoking' ordinances, but passed 201 and defeated 206. Also, very nice to see this State's citizens get early childhood development.

32 House Seats, and control of the House, and the very real possibility of the Senate going to the Democratic Party. A resounding message of voter intolerance of corruption and this adminstration's war effort.

Kudos and thanks to everyone that worked to make this happen.

Exit Polls Indicate Possibility of a Democratic Romp

2006-11-07T15:20:00.000-07:00

CNN Just reported early exit polls and had this to say...

The number one issue on Americans minds....corruption!

Also mentioned was that overwhelmingly, this election was much more a national referendum on Bush, etc...and not local. This in and of itself is a very bad sign for Rove, etc...

Could there be some amazing surprises in store tonight!

National Issues 62% v 32% Local

Today's Media Focus

2006-11-07T13:49:00.000-07:00

Almost all day today, the media is focusing on campaign dirty tricks, voting irregularities and problems at various polling precincts. This is a good thing, as it will continue to expose some of the more sordid things that various campaigns and campaign supporters will do, expose the very real need for voter reform ONCE AGAIN! and continue to get the general public more and more outraged.

This time around, however many Republicans will surely join the call for the elimination of Diebold voting machines along with other touch screen type voting at the polls and perhaps they will also insist on voter paper trails.

In addition, down in the Tucson area, Man Eegee and Daily Kos are reporting 3 men carrying out voter intimidation tactics against hispanic voters. This is disgusting, and may lead to some legislative reform down the road regarding the carrying of weapons near polling locations. This situation can only get worse, and hopefully the media will be getting some film and identification on these douchebags.

The "Internets" are playing an enormous role today, by instantly publiscizing problems with voting, via YouTube, Kos and direct media notification by bloggers and other voters. Keeping this kind of viligance up may hopefully lead to the severe depression of election day misdeeds, as well as several convictions to come.

I watched yesterday as Rahm Emmanuel declared that after this election is over, the Democratic party will no longer shrug off the robocalling, the disruption and other bad behaviour at the polls. Good for him, and I hope that sentences are handed down accordingly.

NO Party or Person should ever engage in any kind of voter intimidation in this country. We should and shall no longer tolerate this garbage.

Expect Heavy Turnout

2006-11-07T09:10:00.000-07:00

I went to the polls this morning to drop off a couple of absentee ballots and vote myself. I did this pretty early this morning, as I always do, and this year this polling location had 8 voter stands. Every one of them was full when I arrived, which thoroughly blew me away.

Lines had not formed yet, but there was a steady stream of folks coming in to vote. Tonight, this polling location will be very busy, with some long lines. I also noticed that the plastic bin set up to hold absentee ballots was not very secure, and was already full! This was a basic plastic rubbermaid tub with a slot cut into its top. Imagine this kind of ballot box in countries like Iraq, Nicauragua, or other places where voter fraud 'happens'. Never happen here right?

For a midterm election, turnout like this will likely be unprecedented, and that should be a good thing for Democrats.

A Meaningful Gesture

2006-11-06T22:03:00.000-07:00

This was suggested in a post over at the Democracy Cell Project. I think it is very fitting, and I know that the DCP would not mind my extending this thought and action over here.

Following is the post at the DCP blog:

Election 2006
The other night, at a 30-year retrospective for the Liz Lerman Dance Company, Peter DiMuro, her Artistic Director, stepped forward and led the audience through a movement exploration around the issue of genocide. The last gesture in the series we came up with was one in which we wrote the initials of someone who had stood up for us on our palms.

Then we took the initials and gave the hand gesture to the rest of the audience. It was moving and lovely and I had no trouble thinking of whose initials belonged inside that movement.

And tonight I went to the Vietnam Memorial to meet up with Cindy Sheehan and Ann Wright and others for a vigil. Cindy spoke about the hope we all have for tomorrow and for the end of this war, hopefully before the number of names surpass those on that wall.

She also pointed out that if we added the Iraqi names of those killed, the wall would be twelve times the size it is, and if we added the names of the Vietnamese killed, it would be double that.
Who stands up to genocide? Who speaks for those ghosts?

Tomorrow we vote, and it is a most important election, because it is surely our last chance to end this particular genocide. It may be the last chance to end the genocide of the planet.
And I know you all understand this and have already worked blessedly hard to get out the vote. But after you vote yourself, please take a moment to think about those who have lost lives for profiteering, those who have suffered under this administration, and vow to prevent these criminals from continuing with their program of callousnes and callowness.

Write the initials of someone who has stood against them on your hand and say thank you. And then pick up the phone and call your local organization and ask what small thing you can do to make the difference between despair and hope.

Everything counts on this day. Everything.

End

Tomorrow, as I go to the polls to vote, I will have the initials of two people written on the palm of each one of my hands. Both of these people have worked tirelessly over the past several years to prevent everything bad that has happened in America since the Bush victory in 2000 and 2004, and yet despite the setbacks, neither of them have ever given up, in fact each of them began working towards this election the day after the 2004 election, and they have never, ever stopped.

May tomorrow bring each of them victory.

RoboCall The RoboCallers!

2006-11-06T21:03:00.000-07:00

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2006/11/06/18327155.php

Conquest Communications phone number is 804-358-0560. Call and let them know (in a polite and legal way) that you do not appreciate their attempts to subvert democracy and the will of the people. Leave a message for as many of their employee scoundrels as you have patience for. For some background, read http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2006/11/05/18326780.php.

Robo Caller Doesn't Want Your Calls? By Paul Kiel - November 6, 2006, 2:59 PM Irony of ironies. Since we posted this morning on Conquest Communications, the company that's been conducting hundreds of thousands of often harrassing calls on behalf of the National Republican Congressional Committee, they've taken down their "Contact Us" and "About" pages.

The pages included the company's phone number and bios of the company's executives. Maybe they were getting too many phone calls? The woman who answered the phone couldn't tell me why the pages were down, only offering, “maybe we’re getting a lot of traffic." When I asked if I could speak to someone who might know why, I was put through to the voicemail of one of the partners.

That call, along with an earlier one to the company, has yet to be returned. The company works exclusively with Republican clients, of which there is a long, long list.

One of the founding partners, David Johnson, is a veteran operative of the NRCC and the former Executive Director of the Republican Party of Virginia. ... Later Update: Actually, since posting this morning, Conquest seems to have stripped their website down to everything but its index page.