Short-Term Trading

Dubai - Debt Rattles

2009-11-26T09:42:00.002-05:00

Dubai, which borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom to transform its economy into a regional tourism and financial hub, suffered the world’s steepest property slump in the global recession. Home prices fell 50 percent from their 2008 peak.

Bloomberg

Marketwatch

DJIA - Market Wrap 24 Nov

2009-11-25T06:28:00.002-05:00

The 60-minute trend is negative according to the force index indicator. %b left the overbought area. Yesterday prices attempted to close the up gap printed on Monday, but then moved higher again. The Dow is doing better than the Nasdaq in this phase as it has printed nre highs. This market should not have much strength to the upside. But these qualitative considerations do not mean anything in this market. Quantitavely Quantifiable Edges in this post breaks down the Thanksgiving holiday and finds out that Wednwsday and Fridays are very good day historically during this week.
Almost all stocks are moving above their short, medium and long term moving averages indicating how well the trend developed. DD, GE, JNJ, PG, T, VZ, WMT, XOM printed new 20-day highs. HD and MCD printed 3 consecutive up closes.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), American International Group Inc (AIG), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), General Motors Corp (GM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS).

Nasdaq - Market Wrap 24 Nov

2009-11-25T06:14:00.003-05:00

The 60-minute trend is down according to the force index indicator. At 1770 the up gap indicates an important support. This is the second gap left open recently. The other one is at 1730. The closure of these gaps would be negative. This period is quite frustrating for me as I have been waiting in the margin of this market a correction that has not arrived so far. AMGN, DISH, GOOG, NTAP printed new 20-day highs. YHOO printed a 20-day low. DISH, GENZ, QCOM printed 3 consecutive up closes. Most of the stocks are moving above their moving averages. The Nasdaq is underperforming the Dow that managed to print a new high on 23 Nov. I remain concerned that this market should not have much strength to the upside. But these qualitative considerations do not mean anything in this market. Quantitavely Quantifiable Edges in this post
breaks down the Thanksgiving holiday and finds out that Wednwsday and Fridays are very good day historically during this week.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
Apple Computer Inc (AAPL), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Broadcom (BRCM), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Cisco Systems(CSCO),Dell Inc (DELL), EchoStar Communications (DISH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Genzyme Corporation (GENZ), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Google Inc (GOOG), Intel Corporation (INTC), Sun Microsystems Inc (JAVA), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Microsoft (MSFT), Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (SIRI), Tellabs Inc (TLAB), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), Yahoo (YHOO)

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

2009-11-24T06:31:00.002-05:00

i read an interesting post on the Natural Gas ETF UNG at

Disciplined Investor

If you bought the “natural gas” fund assuming that it would follow the commodity’s performance you would be wrong. Since last September, in fact, UNG underperformed significantly the spot price of the commodity. This is because it follows the percentage change in the price of the commodity’s front month contract. The problem is the market is in contango. In this situation longer-term contracts are priced higher than near-term contracts and the fund will underperform the underlying commodity. The result is quite impressive and disappointing (for some at least).

I have no idea why the divergence in behavior started in September and why there is such a wide contango in gas. The post proposes two scenarios. One where "UNG will come back in line with the natural gas pricing when (if) there is a the contango spread reduces to historic levels".
The second where as the fund is "too big and because futures roll every month, there is no way that this can ever catch up".

Quite interesting example of product "inefficiency"

EURUSD and S&P outlook

2009-11-13T07:28:00.003-05:00

The dollar has printed 4 waves to the downside in the 60 minute chart. We should expect a waves 5 now. If this occurs the support for the emini S&P is the open up gap printed on 9 November. The closure of the gap would be negative.

Markets Outlook (EWU, EWJ, EWC, EWG, EWA) - 12 November

2009-11-12T16:26:00.005-05:00

iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index (ETF) (EWU)

iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (EWJ)

iShares MSCI Canada Index (ETF) (EWC)

iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (ETF) (EWG)

iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund (ETF) (EWA)

Emerging Markets Outlook - 12 November

2009-11-12T16:08:00.005-05:00

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF) (EPI)

iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ)

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI)

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM)

Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)

Commodities Outlook 12 November

2009-11-12T15:58:00.005-05:00

Market Vectors Agribusiness (ETF) (MOO)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)

SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (ETF) (XME)

United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL)

Metals and Energy Outlook - 12 November

2009-11-12T15:40:00.006-05:00

Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (DBB)

Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLE)

PowerShares DB Com Indx Trckng Fund(ETF) (DBC)

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)

2009-11-11T12:43:00.005-05:00

The force Index indicator is negative both in the daily and the weekly chart. Interesting positive divergences in both timeframes. Prices is very close to new lows
Hard to say if and when there will be a reversal. I am concerned because while I see natural gas printing new lows, oil is moving higher. I guess the ratio oil/gas is very interesting now. What happens to gas prices when the expected correction in commodities occurs? However, I think gas is an interesting opportunity at these levels for a contrarian trade although I do not see a specific setup yet.

China Bears

2009-11-11T12:17:00.002-05:00

Is China headed toward collapse?
Pollution, pollution
China Teetering On the Brink ?
China’s Investment Boom: the Great Leap into the Unknown
Amazing Pictures, Pollution in China

Eurusd: Close to recent high

2009-11-10T07:22:00.002-05:00

Support at 1.495.

Emini S&P Testing Previous High

2009-11-09T22:29:00.004-05:00

After the impressive up gap and the trend day, the emini is getting closer recent high. A correction on Tuesday is expected or at least an intraday pullback (6 points at 75%). Only the closure of the open gap at about 1070 could signal a change of trend

DJIA Market Wrap 8 November

2009-11-09T06:54:00.003-05:00

The 60-minute trend is positive according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly negative divergence. On Monday morning prices will open up on a gap that will test previous high. The Dow is also doing much better than the Nasdaq in this phase. Most of the stocks are moving above their 20-day moving averages and the trend is very good in the longer term moving averages. HPQ, MCD, PG printed new 20-day highs. MCD has printed 5 and IBM has printed 4 consecutive up closes. I remain negative on the market and will need to assess how high this move will continue. I am opening some shorts at this point although I am aware the Dow is moving again to print new highs.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), American International Group Inc (AIG), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), General Motors Corp (GM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS).

Nasdaq Market Wrap 8 November

2009-11-09T06:45:00.003-05:00

The 60-minute trend is up according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly negative divergence. Prices last week printed an impressive of 5 cnsecutive up days and now they restesting the rising trendline. 1749 and 1775 the resistance. Support at 1650. Then 1590. Prices are now testing the lower trendline of a channel that prices are forming. AKAM, AMZN, COST, QCOM, SBUX printed new 20-day highs. JAVA printed a 20-day low. EBAY and GILD printed 5 and GOOG 4 consecutive up closes. I remain negative on the market and will need to assess how high this move will continue. I am opening some shorts at this point although I am aware the market could attempt to print new highs.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
Apple Computer Inc (AAPL), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Broadcom (BRCM), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Cisco Systems(CSCO),Dell Inc (DELL), EchoStar Communications (DISH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Genzyme Corporation (GENZ), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Google Inc (GOOG), Intel Corporation (INTC), Sun Microsystems Inc (JAVA), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Microsoft (MSFT), Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (SIRI), Tellabs Inc (TLAB), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), Yahoo (YHOO)

Technical Analysis Around the World

2009-11-07T16:53:00.002-05:00

Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation.

Ben R. Marshall*, Rochester H. Cahan, Jared M. Cahan

PAPER

Eurusd: Moving sideways

2009-11-05T21:58:00.002-05:00

The US Dollar has tested again the 1.49 level. Note the negative divergence of the %b indicator.

Market 2 Nov

2009-11-03T07:27:00.000-05:00

Emini S&P bullish if it opens below yesterday's low.

Marathon and Trading

2009-11-03T06:33:00.002-05:00

Received from Michele.

In life, one can find strange coincidences.

On March 9th, DJ was at its minimum in 2009 and the weekend before, I literally fell at my minimum too.

During one of my usual weekend climb, I fell.

Lucky I was held by my partner, and I only badly hit my foot against the rock and sprained my ankle, breaking also a bone.

Otherwise it could have been much worse.

Ironically, the name of the route was ‘Delirium’, such as what the market was going through?!

I had to wear a cast for 35 days and walk with crutches.

After taking the cast away, I made a point to recover as fast as possible to go back to climbing.

Another similar accident happened to me some years ago and during my forced stop with the cast on, I focused on climbing training in all possible ways hanging myself everywhere.

This time I approached it in a different way. I mentally took a break from climbing and focused on something else.

I set a goal to motivate myself: to run a half marathon within 6 months.

I have always run, but just for fun and never on long distances. However it sounded like an achievable goal.

Swimming helped from day one, as I used it as aerobic training.

It took some time to get back to walk without crutches, then I started to do long walks, going to work by foot, and cycling.

Things were proceeding quite well, as the market was doing.

In June I started running but after one week my knee swelled and I had to stop. Was I going back in my preparation? Probably I neglected my muscles when I had crutches.

I should have done some exercises for my leg even with the cast on.

In June also the market declined.

In July I spent my holidays in the mountain, walking a lot and as fast as I could uphill and downhill to train myself to long distances, also mentally.

For sure that helped and I kept improving, same as the market.

In August I finally was able to run again and slowly I increased distances, preparing for the September rally.

Finally, at the end of September I ran my first half marathon, with a good time for a 42 year old newbie at least according to my more experienced colleagues.

Who knows if that is the end of the rally …

I just hope that my life stops being correlated to the market, otherwise I will use it as a trading signal …

Michele

DJIA and Nasdaq Charts

2009-11-02T22:49:00.005-05:00

The Dow is outperforming the Nasdaq and the S&P. Note that the gap at 9600 is still open. A double low was printed and the bullish candlestick tweezer bottom. The %b indicator also printed a positive divergence.

In the Nasdaq the support at 1660 has been challenged already. Here also there is positive divergence of the %b indicator.

DJIA Market Wrap1 November

2009-11-01T21:38:00.003-05:00

The 60-minute trend is negative according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly positive divergence. Prices are testing the lower trendline of the recently formed downward channel. Finally, the long awaited correction has started. At 9600 there is an important level; here there is an open up gap printed on 6 October. The closure (already occurred in the S&P) would confirm the negative phase. Many stocks are trading below their 20-day moving averages, but the picture is still positive in the longer term moving averages. Some stocks printed new 20-day lows (BAC, CSCO, GE, HD, JNJ, JPM, MRK). The Dow is also doing better than the Nasdaq in this phase. I remain negative on the market although there may be temporary rebounds.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
3M Company (MMM), Alcoa Inc (AA), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Express Company (AXP), American International Group Inc (AIG), At&t Inc (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc (C), E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), General Motors Corp (GM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Honeywell International Inc (HON), IBM (IBM), Intel Corp (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Merck & Co. (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer Inc (PFE), The Boeing Company (BA), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), The Home Depot (HD), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), United Technologies Corporation (UTX), Verizon Communications (VZ), Wal mart Stores Inc (WMT), Walt Disney (DIS).

Nasdaq Market Wrap 1 November

2009-11-01T21:28:00.002-05:00

The 60-minute trend is down according to the force index indicator. %b has printed a slightly positive divergence. Finally prices have moved quickly to the downside. The Nasdaq is underperforming the Dow and the S&P. In fact, the breakout of the rising trendline has already occurred. On Thursday prices retested the trendline and Friday accelerated to the downsode quite impressively. Support at 1650. Then 1590. Prices are now testing the lower trendline of a channel that prices are forming. I would expect overall a negative week. Many stocks have printed new 20-day low. I remain negative on the market although there may be temporary rebounds.

In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

RANGE ANALYSIS
I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
- range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
- % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
- % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.

The stocks object of screening are:
Apple Computer Inc (AAPL), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Broadcom (BRCM), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Cisco Systems(CSCO),Dell Inc (DELL), EchoStar Communications (DISH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Genzyme Corporation (GENZ), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Google Inc (GOOG), Intel Corporation (INTC), Sun Microsystems Inc (JAVA), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Microsoft (MSFT), Network Appliance, Inc. (NTAP), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (SIRI), Tellabs Inc (TLAB), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), Yahoo (YHOO)

Market Outlook - 1 November

2009-11-01T15:40:00.004-05:00

The emini is moving within a downward channel. 1020 and 990 are two important levels. Short term resistance at 1040. I expect a rebound intraday, but I remain negative at this point.

Market Outlook 28 Oct

2009-10-28T08:12:00.004-04:00

It seems finally that the market has started moving to the downside with the dollar getting stronger vs the Euro. In the 60-minute chart of the emini s&p you can see the downward channel that has just started. Prices are moving in the lower side of the channel after 2 consecutive down days.

Alessandro Baricco - Oceano Mare - Riflessioni

2009-10-26T20:24:00.018-04:00

In Oceano Mare si trovano anime alla deriva. In un modo o nell'altro i personaggi questo lo capiscono e lo accettano.
Si lasciano andare.
A fare qualcosa di diverso ci si fa male.
E' questo il problema del mare, che non ha strade.
Si', il mare e' cosi'.
Le rotte sono infinite e per tenerne una ti devi mettere d'impegno.
Devi continuamente verificare il percorso e correggerlo per cercare di andare dritto. Le onde. Il vento. La corrente.
Gia'.
Ma per arrivare dove?
Tutta questa fatica per arrivare dove?
Non lo sanno i personaggi di Oceano Mare. Alla fine non combattono piu' la forza del mare.
Non ce la fanno piu'.
Perche' sarebbe inutile, tanto ti porta dove vuole lui.

Il vantaggio di una strada e' che almeno la puoi seguire, anche se non sai dove ti porta.
Una strada.
Devi solo partire e seguire quello davanti.
E da qualche parte arrivi, di sicuro.
E' vero, ogni tanto decidi se girare a destra o sinistra.
In qualche rotonda ti puo' anche venire il dubbio di tornare indietro.
Ma se non altro c'e' un percorso segnato, una rete di possibilita' predeterminate.
E, infatti, ci si prova, avanti e indietro per la stessa strada mille volte, guidati dal caso.
Per fermarsi dove capita, tanto e' lo stesso.

Si', perche' e' inutile illudersi di costruire qualcosa di solido.
Siamo come le impronte sulla sabbia in riva al mare.
Camminiamo al tramonto su quel filo indefinito e in continuo movimento che separa la terra dal mare lasciando dei segni, anche profondi. Ma che la mattina dopo non ci sono piu'.
Costruiamo dei castelli di sabbia che il vento e il mare portano inevitabilmente via.
A volte di vetro, che all'improvviso si spaccano in mille pezzi. Che tagliano e fanno male.
Ci si rende conto che basta un clic e tutta la tua vita, quello per cui in cui hai creduto tanti anni, quella fortezza che ti sei costruito intorno va in pezzi.
Non ci vuole molto.
Basta una domanda, basta vedere gli occhi di una donna, gli occhi del mare.

La salvezza e' che la realta' sfuma e tutto diventa memoria.
Che il tempo passa.
Che in un modo o nell'altro anche se siamo alla deriva il mare ci portera' da qualche parte.
Che se seguiamo una strada troveremo prima o poi un paese, una locanda dove riposare.

Perche' il destino non ce lo scegliamo noi.
Perche' naufraghi in mezzo alla tempesta possiamo solo cercare di sopravvivere, come animali in caccia e in fuga nello stesso tempo.
In preda all'istinto in un gioco tragico di vita e morte.
Il cui esito non dipende da noi, dalla nostra intelligenza.
Vittime di un destino che non ci appartiene.

E perche' la realta' e' come un diamante, dai mille riflessi, uno diverso dall'altro.
E il bello e' che sono tutti veri questi riflessi.
Sono tutti veri.