Basketball Predictions

Andre Dawkins To Duke A Year Early?

2009-07-18T10:40:00.004-04:00

I talked a few weeks ago about how dreadfully thin Duke is right now at the guard position. It's enough of a problem that Duke might actually end up being a bubble team, and they certainly don't seem like a plausible ACC contender. But suddenly there might be a ray of hope, with numerous sources reporting that 2010 recruit Andre Dawkins might actually be able to enroll this fall and be ready to play the 2009-10 season. Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports is actually reporting that it's basically a done deal, although I haven't seen that confirmed.

So what type of player is Dawkins? ESPN's Paul Bincardi compares him to J.J. Redick and Trajan Langdon. He may or not be another Trajan Langdon, but the Redick comparison seems like a forced situation by an author who assumes that most of his readers don't remember any players much beyond three or four years ago. Dawkins is a very good shooter, but he's not yet nearly in the class of the shooter that Redick was. But at the same time, Dawkins is more athletic, and athleticism is sorely needed at a Duke program reeling from the loss of Gerald Henderson and Elliot Williams.

And beyond that, the Blue Devils actually just need depth. With Seth Curry forced to sit out the season due to the transfer from Liberty, the only guards on Duke's roster right now are Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer. They have two guards. Seriously. If we move up to the small forward position, the only scholarship small forward is Kyle Singler. Singler can certainly play some shooting guard if he has to, but that just makes Duke really thin on the inside, and also very slow and unathletic. You'd rather play Singler as an athletic power forward than as a slow shooting guard, but Coach K might not have a ton of choices.

If Dawkins comes then he provides depth at both guard positions. Singler will now be more free to play inside, and Duke suddenly becomes a fairly dangerous offensive team that will bring a variety of weapons. Dawkins is also a quality perimeter defender, and Duke should be an above average defensive team again. Dawkins won't make Duke an ACC contender, but if he's as good as the hype then Duke could already be off the 2010 Tournament bubble.

While we'll have to wait a little bit longer for confirmation of the eligibility of Andrew Dawkins, Duke fans certainly aren't waiting that long to celebrate. And if you were wondering just how important this news is to their 2009-10 chances, just look at the celebrations all of their message boards.

Shawn Kemp, Jr To Alabama: Delayed A Year

2009-07-18T10:18:00.002-04:00

Shawn Kemp, Jr. was one of the top 2009 recruits for the University of Alabama, and he decided to stick with the school after the coaching change to Anthony Grant. Unfortunately, it has now been announced that he has failed to qualify academically and will spend a season at Hargrave Military Academy. He insists that he is still committed to Alabama, and simply now becomes a 2010 recruit.

I spoke about Alabama's 2009-10 chances most recently here. I did think that Kemp would contribute as a freshman, but it's not like he was going to start. He was simply going to add depth. The fact that he won't be there won't seriously damage any chances they have of making the 2010 Tournament. In fact, assuming that Kemp sticks with it and becomes a four-year player at Alabama, this might be a blessing in disguise. He'll be one year more mature throughout his career, which certainly can be nothing but a good thing for a member of the Kemp family.

Also, it's not as if Alabama is one small player away from being an SEC contender right now. Here is my full 2009-10 SEC preview, although it's a bit out-dated considering how much has happened to Alabama since then. More recent takes on the conference are here and here. No matter what happens, Alabama is not going to be in the same class as Kentucky, Tennessee or Mississippi State. I'd say that Florida and Vanderbilt are clearly better as well. So in my mind, their best case scenario is to be the sixth best team in the SEC, and to sneak into the Tournament as a 10-12 seed. More realistically, I think they'll be a bubble team that will most likely be spending Selection Sunday just hoping to make the NIT.

Alabama has a fairly nice base of young players. They certainly don't have a Florida or Kentucky quality recruiting class, and they won't anytime soon, but Alabama's kids are much more likely to stick around for four or five years, and that will help even the playing field. They might be an SEC West contender as early as 2010-11. If Kemp can be a part of that effort then Alabama fans will be content to wait a year.

Very Early 2010-11 Preview: Big East

2009-07-13T18:46:00.002-04:00

Villanova: The Wildcats will lose a lot of good players after the 2009-10 season, but that doesn't mean that they won't still be pretty good in 2010-11. The biggest losses, of course, will be Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding. That said, the two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) should be back for their senior season and will provide an excellent starting back court. Antonio Pena will start at the four or five position, Taylor King will almost surely be starting at the three, and Maurice Sutton will be back and providing depth on the inside. The fifth starter will probably come from the outstanding group of freshmen that they have for the 2009-10 season, but we'll have to see how the season plays out before we know who is best. The two best freshmen are probably swing forward Dominic Cheek and power forward Mouphtau Yarou, but point guard Maalik Wayns and forward Isaiah Armwood are quality recruits as well. As for the 2010 recruiting class, Jay Wright has already collected oral commitments from James Bell (Scout: 12 SF, Rivals: 58) and Markus Kennedy (Scout: 11 C, Rivals: 136). Reynolds and Redding will both be tough losses, but assuming that this team can avoid any surprising NBA defections I see no reason why Villanova can't compete for a Big East title in 2010-11.

West Virginia: Da'Sean Butler will be a tough graduation to replace, and Wellington Smith also graduates, but the real worry will be Devin Ebanks and whether he comes back for his junior season in 2010-11. Right now he's projected to be a lottery pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, and if that holds up then I'd expect him to leave. Guards Darryl Bryant and Casey Mitchell, and forwards John Flowers and Kevin Jones, will be the key returners, and Joe Mazzulla is a question mark. Mazzulla should get a medical redshirt for the 2008-09 season which would give him eligibility for the 2010-11 season, but he also has legal troubles and it's not clear if he'll still be at the school. Cam Thoroughman should also be a quality returner. Of the 2009-10 freshmen, shooting guard Dalton Pepper is the most likely to be a big contributor right away. The top 2010 recruit thus far is point guard Noah Cottrill, but Bob Huggins is in the mix for other big names. Huggins has the luxury that he has a very large roster, so he doesn't need to worry about grabbing a ton of recruits. He can aggressively go after the top recruits knowing that his team will be okay even if he can only grab one or two.

Louisville: Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith will be two fairly big graduations, but I don't think Louisville will lose any players early to the 2010 NBA Draft (although Samardo Samuels is a possibility). Guard Preston Knowles and forward Terrence Jennings will likely be the two best returners (other than Samuels), although Peyton Siva might be a key returner if his freshman year ends up being as good as Louisville fans are hoping. Forwards George Goode, Jared Swopshire and Rakeem Buckles should all provide depth inside. The question mark will be guard play, although you can be sure that Rick Pitino will find somebody to fill that spot. Thus far his only signing for the 2010 class is swing forward Josh Langford.

Cincinnati: While the Lance Stephenson circus has the potential to dominate the 2009-10 season at Cincinnati, he's likely to be a one-and-done player and will not be a factor in 2010-11. The real question mark will be star Yancy Gates, and whether he goes pro early. The other key loss will be to graduation: Deonta Vaughn. That said, Cincy will have a ton of good players back for 2010-11. Dion Dixon and Larry Davis will be key back court returners. Ibrahima Thomas, Alvin Mitchell and Steve Toyloy are all key front court returners. Guard Cashmere Wright and forward Darnell Wilks should be quality players off the bench as well. If Gates is back then they will have an excellent front court, and so the question mark for me would be the back court. They've got a whole bunch of guards, but none of them have shown much in the way of being a Big East star. A well-behaved Lance Stephenson will play that role in 2009-10, but I'll have to see somebody ready to play that role in 2010-11 to convince me that they won't take a small step down the conference standings.

Connecticut: It's practically impossible to predict where UConn will be in 2010-11. Part of the reason is the uncertainty of Jim Calhoun's future, and whether he'll stick around for another year. Even if he comes back there will be the uncertainty of the NBA Draft, and whether Kemba Walker, Ater Majok or both will go pro early. Gavin Edwards, Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson will all be key graduations as well. If Walker and Majok both go pro then UConn is really in quite a bit of trouble for the 2010-11 season. In fact, the only player who I can be certain will be a quality player that season for UConn is shooting guard Donnell Beverly. If they're even going to be a Tournament team they're going to need quality production right away from the 2009-10 freshmen, highlighted by forwards Alex Oriakhi and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, and guard Darius Smith. They don't have any signings yet for 2010, but you have to assume that they'll sign a bunch of players, or else collect a few transfers, to at the very least fill out the roster. UConn was excellent in 2008-09, but it's going to be a long time before they'll get back to those heights.

Georgetown: Hoya fans would obviously love to have Greg Monroe back for 2010-11, but you have to figure that he'll enter the 2010 NBA Draft. Still, he'll likely be the only member of the 2009-10 Georgetown team not back for 2010-11, which means that they might be improved even without him. Chris Wright and Austin Freeman will likely be back as the starting back court. Jason Clark and Vee Sanford will provide depth. The inside will be key, especially if Monroe leaves. Hollis Thompson is an excellent swing forward, and will likely start at the 3-spot. Henry Sims, Julian Vaughn and Nikita Mescheriakov will all be returning bigs, although none of them have yet to prove that they can be elite Big East players, which means that they might rely heavily on 2010 power forward Nate Lubick. The other early signing is point guard Markel Starks. The Hoyas will have a quality back court in 2010-11, but if Monroe leaves then the development of other post players will be the key question for Georgetown.

Pittsburgh: 2009-10 is a bit of a rebuilding season for Pittsburgh, but they should be back and improved in 2010-11. Jermaine Dixon will likely be the only loss. Brad Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs will be a quality starting back court. Travon Woodall will provide depth. There are more questions on the inside, where it will be more about prospects than sure things. Gary McGhee is a decent post player, and Nasir Robinson is a wing prospect. Dante Taylor is expected to be a key post player as a freshman in 2009-10, and another key post prospect is Talib Zanna. Their one oral commitment for 2010 thus far is point guard Isaiah Epps. Pitt should be better in 2010-11 than 2009-10, but the development of their post players will be the key to a potential run at a Big East title.

Seton Hall: Seton Hall is an improving program that should be even better in 2010-11, losing only Eugene Harvey and John Garcia. Harvey is a tough loss, but he's not irreplaceable. They key will be one more season out of Jeremy Hazell, who could end up being one of the highest career scoring players in the history of the Big East. Hazell will be joined in the back court by Jordan Theodore and Keon Lawrence, although they'll be thin in terms of bench play from the guard position unless they can sign a good 2010 player or two. They'll have two good swing players returning in Robert Mitchell and Memphis transfer Jeff Robinson. On the inside they'll likely start Herb Pope, but beyond that there are question marks. Farrakohn Hall and Melvyn Oliver are both quality prospects, and we'll have to see how they develop during the 2009-10 season. They have yet to get commitments from any blue chippers for their 2010 class.

Syracuse: Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku will be the two graduates from Syracuse's 2009-10 team. Despite the losses, the front court should still be fairly good in 2010-11, featuring Kris Joseph, Rick Jackson, Wes Johnson and DaShonte Riley. The back court will be a bit of a question mark as it will depend on the development of two decent prospects: Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche. With such a thin group of returners, the key to their depth will be the 2010 recruiting class, which is already looking pretty good. The two best oral commitments thus far are shooting guard Dion Waiters and swing forward C.J. Fair.

St. John's: The Johnnies are slowly but steadily improving under Norm Roberts, and should be even better in 2010-11, with Anthony Mason, Jr being the only graduate. Malik Boothe and Paris Horne will be a good starting back court. Quincy Roberts, TyShawn Edmondson and Dwight Hardy will provide depth. D.J. Kennedy might be the best player returning in 2010-11, and will play in the 3-spot, with Omari Lawrence as his backup. On the inside, Sean Evans and Justin Burrell will probably start, with Rob Thomas and Dele Coker off the bench. With a lot of depth, the key will be whether Norm Roberts can finally land one of the top New York City recruits. He has swung and miss for the past few seasons, and he might need to actually land one if he's finally going to get his kids to the Tournament in 2011.

Notre Dame: The Irish are a thin team in 2009-10, and they will lose even more after the season. Luke Harangody will graduate, as will Tory Jackson and Jonathan Peoples. Their strength in 2010-11 will probably be athletic swing forwards, with both Tyrone Nash and Carleton Scott being quality returners. Beyond that, though, there's not much. Ben Hansbrough should be a good shooting guard in from Mississippi State, but beyond that it's all prospects. The 2009 class doesn't have any blue chippers, but it's deep, and we'll have to see which of those players separates himself from the pack. But even if one or two of those recruits ends up being really good, the Irish will still be dreadfully thin in 2010-11. Expect Mike Brey to spend a large percentage of the next few months looking for recruits and transfers.

Rutgers: Fred Hill is on the hot seat at Rutgers, and a big part of his future will likely depend on the development of Mike Rosario, who was expected to be the savior of Rutgers basketball. He showed flashes of why he was so hyped as a freshman in 2008-09, but he's got a way to go to be one of the best players in the Big East. Thankfully for the Scarlet Knights, just about everybody will be back from the 2009-10 team in 2010-11. Hamady N'Diaye is the only loss to graduation. Corey Chandler will join Rosario in the back court in 2010-11, with Mike Coburn and Kofi Genfi off the bench. In the front court, Gregory Echenique will be the key returner, along with Jonathan Mitchell, Patrick Jackson, Dane Miller and Austin Johnson. The issue is that other than Rosario, Echenique and perhaps Mitchell or Chandler, there isn't a lot of top flight Big East talent on this team. Hill is going to have to get out and find some quality recruits, or he might not be the one coaching this team in 2010-11.

Marquette: 2009-10 is a big time rebuilding season for Buzz Williams, and 2010-11 might be another one. Lazar Haywood will unquestionably be the star of the 2009-10 team, and he'll graduate, as will starter David Cubillan. In fact, I'd expect only swing forward Joseph Fulce and center Chris Otule to be key players on the 2010-11 squad who were a part of the 2008-09 squad, meaning that the 2009 recruiting class will be the key to Marquette's future. It has a ton of talent, but also a ton of players with baggage, be it personal or academic. Jeronne Maymon is a swing forward who might be the most talented (and enigmatic) player in the class, although Erik Williams is also a good player at the same position. Junior Cadougan is an excellent point guard prospect, and Dwight Buycks could be good as well. A key to the class might be 7'2" Youssoupha Mbao, who is a big time project, but has all of the physical skills if he can manage to avoid academic problems. The 2010 recruiting class already has shooting guard Aaron Bowen, but expect Buzz Williams to be on the prowl for another quality prospect or two. Williams is putting together a lot of talent, but also a whole lot of question marks.

Providence: 2009-10 is a rebuilding season for Providence, and they should be improved in 2010-11, despite the loss of star point guard Sharaud Curry. Brian McKenzie will be the other key loss. Key front court returners will be Jamine Peterson, Bilal Dixon, and swing forward Marshon Brooks. James Still and Kadeem Batts are decent inside prospects as well. As for guards, the key will be the development of the 2009 recruiting class, featuring Johnnie Lacy and Vincent Council. Gerard Coleman, a shooting guard, is the first blue chip oral commitment for 2010, although you can be sure that Keno Davis will have some more signings. They are a long way from being a serious Big East contender, but Providence is heading in the right direction with Keno Davis.

South Florida: Stan Heath continues to be so dependent on transfers in and out that it's tough to keep track of South Florida's roster. Chris Howard and Alex Rivas-Sanchez will be the key graduations, although neither are irreplaceable. Key back court returners will be Dominique Jones, Anthony Crater and Justin Leemow Key front court returners will be Augustus Gilchrist, Ron Anderson and Jarrid Famous. Jones and Gilchrist are probably the two best talents, but all in all there just isn't a whole lot of talent here. South Florida has really struggled to recruit since moving to the Big East, and unless they shock the recruiting world in 2010 I just don't see how they'll have the players to hang with the big boys in the Big East in 2010-11.

DePaul: Like South Florida, DePaul has really struggled to recruit since moving to the Big East. The conference is just too big, and it's very tough to convince kids to come to your school when your best argument is that you're hoping to finish 14th in the conference next season. In what is probably a desperation move more than anything else, Jerry Wainwright has revamped his coaching staff with a bunch of Chicago guys, with an eye on trying to put a bit of a fence around the best Chicago talent, but nobody has a lot of hope that it will work. Will Walker will be the one graduation in 2010, but he will be a tough loss. And a tougher loss will be Mac Koshwal if he decides to enter the NBA Draft. Jeremiah Kelly and Michael Bizoukas will be the only two back court returners, so back court recruiting will be a key. Things are a little bit better in the front court, even if Koshwal leaves, because they have several decent prospects, including Mario Stula, Krys Faber, Kene Obi and Tony Freeland. But in the end, other than Koshwal they just have no real Big East quality talent. Unless Wainwright really does start to pull in some of the elite Chicago talent he will probably be looking for a new job sooner rather than later.

Very Early 2010-11 Preview: ACC

2009-07-12T17:09:00.002-04:00

North Carolina: As usual, the real worry for North Carolina will not be graduations - the worry will be NBA defections. The seniors on their 2009-10 roster are Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson. Ginyard is probably the bigger loss, because his perimeter defense will be difficult to replace. Thompson is a quality player, but he can be replaced easily. A number of players will be potential NBA defections, however. If he gets a full healthy season, don't be surprised to see Tyler Zeller finally go. It's expected that Ed Davis will enter the 2010 NBA Draft, and I don't think too many people will be surprised to see star freshman John Henson leave after one season. Who does that leave for 2010-11?

Larry Drew should still be around, and will likely start at point guard in 2010-11. Will Graves, a 6'6" forward, is more of a question mark. He was suspended for almost all of the 2008-09 season for a vague reason that Roy Williams never really explained. As far as I know, it's still unknown if he'll play in 2009-10, but if he does I'd expect him back for 2010-11 as well. Guard Justin Watts only collected three minutes per game as a freshman in 2008-09, but he has the potential to eventually get big playing time. Of the 2009-10 freshmen, guard Dexter Strickland is the best prospect other than Henson. A real key could potentially be David and Travis Wear, both of whom are 6'10". North Carolina will have excellent size inside in 2009-10 with Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and John Henson, but the possibility of all four being gone after the season will leave a huge gap inside that the Wears might have to fill. Roy Williams already has collected verbal commitments from two top flight recruits for 2010, but both are guards: Reggie Bullock (Scout: 2 SG, Rivals: 8) and Kendall Marshall (Scout: 5 PG, Rivals: 33). He's going to have to find some size if North Carolina is to be a top team in 2010-11. Right now North Carolina seems to be showing interest in 6'6" Harrison Barnes (#2 overall recruit according to Rivals.com), they're also involved with 6'8" CJ Leslie and 6'10" Josh Smith, both of whom are blue chippers. That said, I don't see how North Carolina doesn't have a major size problem unless Tyler Zeller or John Henson chooses to stay for another season.

Clemson: The Tigers had a busy offseason thus far with Terrence Oglesby heading to Europe, and then with Noel Johnson decommitting from USC and taking himself to Clemson. Johnson is unlikely to be a one-and-done player, so he should be a key player on the 2010-11 team. With no Clemson players likely to leave early for the 2010 NBA Draft, the only issue will be graduations. Trevor Booker will be the biggest graduation, in more ways than one. His inside presence will be impossible to replace. The other key graduation will be 6'6" forward David Potter.

A key player on the 2010-11 season will likely be guard Demontez Stitt. Stitt led the team in assists in 2008-09, although by 2010-11 the starting point guard could potentially be 5'9" Andre Young. Power forward Jerai Grant and guard Tanner Smith will also be key returners. Another player to keep an eye on is 6'6" Bryan Narcisse. Of the 2009-10 freshmen, Noel Johnson and Milton Jennings should both be key players right away. Johnson is a swing forward, and Jennings is a power forward. Small forward Donte Hill and power forward Devin Booker are also quality recruits - although it's possible that neither will play a big role as a freshman, don't be surprised to see both as key players on the 2010-11 squad. Of the 2010-11 recruits, they so far have verbal commitments from power forward Marcus Thornton (Rivals: 138) and Juco transfer Justin Johnson (a 6'5" small forward). Obviously Trevor Booker will be an impossible replacement, but Clemson will still be deep and talented in 2010-11, with quality at all five positions.

Maryland: Gary Williams has a quality team put together for 2009-10, probably his best in several seasons. But the Terps will likely take a pretty large step backwards for 2010-11. Greivis Vasquez graduates, as do Landon Millbourne and Eric Hayes. Those three represented the only double-digits scorers from Maryland's 2008-09 team, and will be a very tough loss. The key returners for 2010-11 will be guards Adrian Bowie and Sean Mosley, forwards Dino Gregory, Cliff Tucker, Jin-Soo Kim and Jerome Burnley, and the 2009 freshman class. That freshman class features two 6'8" forwards: Jordan Williams and James Padgett. Of the two, Williams is more likely to contribute right away. Of the verbal commitments for 2010, the key thus far is 6'5" guard Terrence Ross.

One thing that has to worry Maryland fans about this group is the lack of athleticism (at least by ACC standards), and the lack of a clear star. Adrian Bowie should be a double-digit scorer in 2010-11, but other than that I'm not sure who else will be good. Dino Gregory has potential, as does Sean Mosley. Jin-Soo Kim should be a solid sixth man, and he might even start, but it's hard to see him ever being one of the best players on an ACC team. Can this team get back to the NCAA Tournament? Maybe. But I think they'll need to sign another big recruit or two, or one of their current players needs to take a leap to become a lot better than they were in 2008-09.

Duke: The Blue Devils will lose quite a bit of their roster after the 2009-10 season, but not enough for me to think that they won't be better in 2010-11. The 2010 graduates will be Lance Thomas, Martynas Pocius, Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek. Kyle Singler would be a senior in 2010-11, but it's likely that he'll go to the NBA a year early. So who does that leave? At the guard position they'll have Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton and Andre Dawkins (assuming Thornton and Dawkins stick with their verbal commitments for 2010). Seth Curry will also be able to play in 2010-11 after transferring in from Liberty. Both Curry and Dawkins are excellent shooters, and the question will be offensive creation. It's not clear if Curry will be athletic enough to be a quality point guard in the ACC, or if Nolan Smith will be good enough. At the forward position they'll return Miles Plumlee, Olek Czyz, Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee, and Josh Hairston is a 2010 verbal commitment as well.

The question for Duke the past few years has been inside presences, and that will continue to be a question mark. In fact, Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler have probably been their best two inside players in several seasons (if you count Singler as an "inside" player... he's actually physically larger than Thomas, which is why I included him), and both will likely be gone after the 2009-10 season. Duke fans are high on the Plumlees, with Mason probably being the better prospect. Miles wasn't bad in very limited time in 2008-09, and it remains to be seen what type of player he'll turn into. I don't see much of a future for Czyz, although you don't want to completely write off a player after just one season. Ryan Kelly will be a freshman in 2009-10, and is actually a higher rated recruit than Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is more of a post player and should be the better rebounder, but Kelly is supposed to have a nice face-up jumper and could potentially be a good scorer. Joshua Hairston is a solid 2010 recruit (Scout: 10 PF, Rivals: 55), but at 6'8", 195 pounds, he's got some growing to do. Duke continues to be in the hunt for a bunch of other blue chip 2010 recruits, so don't be surprised to see another big signing or two before the 2010-11 season rolls around.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets don't lose much to graduation after the 2009-10 season, with 6'8" Zachery Peacock being the only member of the regular rotation who will go. But that doesn't mean Georgia Tech won't lose a lot, as Gani Lawal is expected to skip his senior season to enter the 2010 Draft, and superfrosh Derrick Favors is expected to be a one-and-done player. That said, Georgia Tech has built up a fairly athletic core, and many of those players will be back for 2010-11. Iman Shumpert was one of the best freshmen in the nation in 2008-09, and should be one of the best players in the ACC in 2010-11 (assuming he doesn't go pro). Lance Storrs, Maurice Miller and Nick Foreman will all be quality guards, as will 2009-10 freshmen Mfon Udofia and Glen Rice, Jr. Udona is expected to be a quality point guard who can lead the offense as a freshman, and could potentially be starting in the back court with Shumpert in 2010-11. Storrs, Miller, Foreman and Rice will all provide depth.

On the inside, 7-footer Brad Sheehan and Bassirou Dieng are decent prospects, as are 2009-10 freshmen Daniel Miller and Kammeon Holsey. Brian Oliver is a quality wing player who will also be a freshman in 2009-10. They so far have no commits for their 2010 class, but that should change soon. Paul Hewitt has been putting together quality recruiting class after quality recruiting class, and he's in the mix for a number of top 2010 players. Until we know exactly who they sign, it's too hard to predict exactly how good the Yellow Jackets will be in 2010-11, but don't be surprised to see another quality season from them.

Virginia: The Cavaliers don't lose all too much to graduation after the 2009-10 season. Calvin Baker is probably the most important loss, although Jamil Tucker and Jerome Meyinsse will also be in the regular rotation in 2009-10 and will graduate. The real question will be Sylven Landesberg, who was arguably one of the five best freshmen in the nation in 2008-09. Right now it's probably 50-50 whether he enters the 2010 NBA Draft. Landesberg wasn't the only good freshman on the team in 2008-09, as Sammy Zeglinski also played well, and will likely be the starting point guard in 2010-11. If Landesberg goes pro then I'd expect either Jeff Jones or Mamadi Diane to join Zeglinski in the backcourt in the starting lineup. Mustapha Farrakhan and Jontel Evans will provide depth at the guard position.

On the inside, the top Virginia returner for 2010-11 will likely be 6'8" Mike Scott, who is an excellent rebounder. 7-footer Assane Sene will also be a key returner. 6'11" John Brandenberg was a blue chip 2008 recruit, and despite not playing much in 2008-09 should be a decent prospect for the future. 2009 recruit Tristan Spurlock should be an excellent wing player, and I think he'll start at the 3-spot for Virginia in 2010-11. Virginia has also collected a verbal commitment from 6'8" post player, Will Regan. It remains to be seen who else Virginia will sign for that 2010 class, and obviously the Landesberg situation is up in the air, but Virginia has a great coach in Tony Bennett, and he will win a lot of games with whoever he's putting on the court. That said, even Bennett probably needs another recruit or two in order to make the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

Wake Forest: The Deamon Decons are going to lose a whole bunch of players from their 2009-10 squad. L.D. Williams, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland and David Weaver will all graduate. A question mark will be what Al-Farouq Aminu chooses to do, but I was honestly a bit surprised to see him even come back for the 2009-10 season, and I expect him to enter the 2010 NBA Draft, especially with so many of his teammates leaving. So who is left? Tony Woods was an excellent freshman in 2008-09 who was simply overshadowed by Aminu. If Aminu goes pro I wouldn't be surprised if Woods is the top player on Wake's 2010-11 team. Ty Walker was the third quality recruit from that 2008 class, and he could start in the front court with Woods in 2010-11.

Beyond those three players, the best returner for 2010-11 will probably be Ari Stewart, a skilled wing player who will be a freshman in 2009-10. Also keep an eye on freshman guard C.J. Harris. But the key for Wake Forest, especially if Aminu goes pro, will be the 2010 recruiting class, which does look very good. Of the verbal commits thus far, shooting guard J.T. Terrell and forwards Travis McKie and Melvin Tabb are all among the Top 100 recruits in the nation according to Rivals.com. Point guard Tony Chennault is also a decent recruit. With so many players leaving, the only way Wake Forest will make the Tournament in 2011 will be if this recruiting class turns out to be stellar, or if Aminu chooses to come back for his junior season.

Boston College: 2009-10 could be a long season for Boston College, but basically everybody will be back for the 2010-11 season. Tyler Roche will be the only graduate. In fact, four starters from the 2008-09 squad will all be back for the 2010-11 season: guard Rakim Sanders, and forwards Joe Trapani, Corey Raji and Josh Southern. Expect Reggie Jackson, the top recruit from Boston College's 2008 class, to join Sanders in the back court to create a very solid starting lineup. The other key returners will be guards Biko Paris and Dallas Elmore, and forwards Cortney Dunn and Evan Ravenel. There are no big time recruits yet signed for the 2010 class, but that obviously could change. Boston College will be better in 2010-11 than in 2009-10, but the amount that they'll improve will be dependent on that 2010 recruiting class.

Virginia Tech: Lewis Witcher will likely be the only member of Virginia Tech's 2009-10 rotation who will graduate in 2010, so the main question for the Hokies will be whether Malcolm Delaney stays for his senior season or enters the 2010 NBA Draft. The other key returner for the back court will be shooting guard Dorenzo Hudson. The top freshman guard in 2009-10 will likely be Erik Green, who will need to have his development accelerated after the transfer out of point guard Hank Thorns.. In the front court, key returners will be Jeff Allen, Victor Davila, J.T. Thompson, Terrell Bell and Cadarian Raines. Allen is a quality player who will unquestionably start, but the rest of those players are all question marks, and it's impossible to tell at this early stage which of them will get to start. The only verbal commitment for 2010 at this point is Jarell Eddie, a very good wing recruit. If Malcolm Delaney does go pro then there will be a huge lack of talent and depth at the guard position, and the top recruiting priority for Seth Greenberg has got to be finding some guards for the 2010-11 season.

North Carolina State: NC State has been heading backwards for the last couple of seasons, and it's not obvious why things will turn around in 2010-11. Dennis Horner and Farnold Degand will both graduate from what will already be a weak rotation in 2009-10. The best back court returner will probably be Javier Gonzalez, although there are also high hopes for 2009-10 freshman Lorenzo Brown (assuming he qualifies academically to play, which as far as I know at this point is not a sure thing). Other key back court returners will be C.J. Williams, Julius Mays and Scott Wood. Key front court returners will be Tracy Smith, Johnny Thomas, Deshawn Painter and Richard Powell. None of those players are particularly good, with Tracy Smith being the only one I'd trust right now to be a decent ACC-quality starter in 2010-11. Their only oral commitment for 2010 is currently point guard Ryan Harrow (Scout: 8 PG, Rivals: 25). Another quality recruit or two could guarantee NC State a better 2010-11 season than 2009-10, but even that probably wouldn't make them a legitimate Tournament contender.

Florida State: The Seminoles are rebuilding in 2009-10, but they could still lose a few more key players before the 2010-11 season. Ryan Reid is the only regular who will be graduating, but both Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton could potentially go into the NBA. Alabi is considered a very likely lottery pick in the 2010 Draft, which means that he's probably gone, but there's a good chance that Singleton will stay. The other best returners in 2010-11 will be forward Jordan DeMercy and guards Derwin Kitchen and Michael Snaer. Other key returners will be guards Luke Loucks and Deividas Dulkys, and forwards Xavier Gibson and Terrence Shannon. The 2010-11 season will likely depend on the good 2010 recruiting class that Leonard Hamilton is putting together. The top verbal commitment is probably 6'8" slasher Okaro White, although Ian White is also considered one of the top point guards in the 2010 class. We will have a better idea of Florida State's 2010-11 chances when we see how their young players develop throughout 2009-10. It will also really help if they can avoid any NBA defections.

Miami (Fl): 2009-10 is a rebuilding season for the Hurricanes, and 2010-11 could be another one. Dwayne Collins, James Dews, Adrian Thomas, Cyrus McGowan all graduate, which guts almost the entire core of the 2009-10 team. The top returners on the 2010-11 team will likely be point guard Malcolm Grant, swing forward DeQuan Jones and shooting guard Durand Scott. Other key returners will be guards Eddie Rios, Garrius Adams and Antoine Allen, and forwards Julian Gamble and Donnavan Kirk. As of now they have no 2010 commitments, but you have to imagine that Frank Haith is going to sign a whole bunch of players, because as of now their 2010-11 roster is looking very thin.

Very Early 2010-11 Previews

2009-07-12T16:44:00.004-04:00

I'm going to try these 2010-11 "Very Early" Previews, and we'll see if people like them. In some sense they're a bit silly because there are so many uncertainties, but I am not going to be actually ranking teams or predicting conference champs a year ahead. What I'm going to be talking about will be general issues: who is graduating, who will be back, who is being recruited, and who does each team need to sign.

Why am I going through this effort? I'll admit that it's mostly selfish. For one, it will make my real 2010-11 Previews (which will not be written until April of 2010) easier to put together. It will also help keep me sane. For those who don't know about the economics of blogs, I can assure you that I don't make much money off of this site - I have a real job that pays the bills. This site is a hobby of mine, and it will be good to keep active during the dead time of the college basketball season (the July-through-September period).

That said, I have also been told by several readers that they like that I keep this site going throughout the full year. There isn't much to talk about this time of year without going into gossip stories, which I hate to do. So hopefully this will keep folks interested. And I do think this will - I'm sure fans will come in to tell me what mistakes I've made.

I am not going to go through all of the conferences, of course. Right now my goal is to do the six BCS conferences. Please note that in all of the "Very Early" Previews, the teams are not ordered by any kind of ranking - they are just ordered in the same way they are in the 2009-10 previews. All conferences that have been completed will be listed below:

ACC
Big East

2009-10 Conference Previews

2009-07-11T22:24:00.002-04:00

As always, I like to have links to all of the conference previews on one page. This will stay up on the right side of this page under "Important BP65 Links" through at least the end of the 2009-10 season:

America East
Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Sun
Atlantic Ten
Big East
Big Sky
Big South
Big Ten
Big 12
Big West
Colonial
Conference USA
Horizon
Ivy League
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Pac-10
Patriot League
SEC
SoCon
Southland
SWAC
Summit
Sun Belt
WCC
WAC

How Good Will Cincy Be?

2009-07-03T23:41:00.002-04:00

I promised that I'd talk about more about Cincinnati's signing of Lance Stephenson, and here it is:

First of all, it's worthwhile to note that Cincinnati was going to be good even before they signed Stephenson. I've seen people debating whether they think Stephenson will push Cincy into the top 7 or 8 in the Big East, but in my mind they were already there. Just a week or so ago I had them as an 8 seed in the Tournament. Last year's team was a lot closer to making the Tournament than most people realized, and they bring back absolutely everybody. Yancy Gates looks like a player who will really take the leap now that he's played a full Big East season and knows what to expect.

On top of that, Cincy is welcoming in a new transfer: Oklahoma State's Ibrahima Thomas. Thomas played one full season at Oklahoma State (2007-08), and these were his per-40 minute averages from that season: 13.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.1 fouls. He is a very athletic talent who will be a great complement to Gates, as long as he can control himself and stay out of foul trouble. Cincy also welcomes Cashmere Wright, a highly touted guard from Cincy's 2008 recruiting class who had to redshirt his freshman season with an injury. He might actually start in 2009-10 as a redshirt freshman.

Assuming Stephenson is able to play next season (obviously there is still the possibility that the NCAA will revoke his eligibility due to some money changing hands during his tumultuous high school career), Cincy will have a very good starting lineup, and will be very deep. Obviously Gates, Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn will start. I'd be shocked if Ibrahima Thomas doesn't start at the power forward position. Gates will play inside with Thomas, Stephenson is a swing forward, and Vaughn is a guard. The other guard position might be taken by Wright, although that's not certain right now. But either way, Cincy will have great depth. A guy like Larry Davis started 28 games last season and might be a sixth or seventh man this coming season. I expect the Bearcats to go ten players deep easily, and this will be so important with the grueling Big East schedule. It shouldn't have been as big of a surprise that teams with little depth last season (Notre Dame, Marquette and Georgetown come to mind) faded down the stretch.

Now of course, Stephenson is a risk. He could be a behavior problem who creates strife in the locker room and makes the team worse. I've always liked Mick Cronin, but this might be his toughest task yet. He needs to make sure that Stephenson takes the national criticism as motivation to be a better person and teammate. That he sets out to prove everybody wrong by being a model player and by leading Cincinnati to great success. Certainly the opportunities will be there for the Bearcats next season, if Stephenson can set his ego aside and be the player he can be.

Lance Stephenson To Cincinnati

2009-07-01T23:11:00.003-04:00

The long Lance Stephenson recruiting saga is finally over, with "Born Ready" finally settling on Cincinnati. Obviously I'd like to get into what this means for Cincinnati next season, but unfortunately I'm away from home with very little access to the internet. A long analysis will be impossible for another 2-3 days. I'm hoping to have something up either Saturday evening or Sunday morning, so stay tuned.

Elliot Williams To Memphis

2009-06-29T18:18:00.002-04:00

Elliot Williams didn't spend too long without a school. It was only about a week ago that he left Duke, and now he's off to Memphis. It's a bit too early to say anything about this since we don't know if he'll be allowed to play next season. He's asking for a waiver from the NCAA so that he won't have to redshirt a year, but there's no obvious reason why he'll get one. If he can play next season then Memphis suddenly becomes a potential Top 25 team. If he can't play then they again fall back in the region of a 9-12 Tournament seed.

The question now becomes whether the recent recruiting coups of Josh Pastner are real, or a fluke. What I mean is this: Latavious Williams fell into their lap because of his academic problems and the fact that no other team really wanted him. Elliot Williams grew up in the Memphis suburbs and is just coming home because his mother is ill. Will Memphis be able to grab big time recruits through the normal recruiting process? That remains to be seen.

But at the very least, there is a lot of evidence that there will be life after Calipari at Memphis. They've definitely had a great turn around over the past few weeks.

Post-Draft BP65

2009-06-26T18:25:00.002-04:00

As promised earlier today, here is the post-NBA Draft BP65. I will, of course, continue to updates stories, recruits and transfers throughout the rest of the summer, but this will be the last full BP65 update until the week of Midnight Madness (mid-October). There are still some recruits that are unsigned who can make a difference for next season, and there will likely be another transfer or two (like we just had a few days ago). But overall, I wouldn't expect things to change too much between now and October:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
1. PURDUE (BIG TEN)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. West Virginia
2. WASHINGTON (PAC 10)
2. Texas

3. Tennessee
3. Minnesota
3. Clemson
3. Ohio State

4. Maryland
4. Michigan State
4. California
4. Louisville

5. BUTLER (HORIZON)
5. Georgia Tech
5. Oklahoma
5. UCLA

6. DAYTON (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Mississippi State
6. Vanderbilt
6. Wake Forest

7. UConn
7. Texas A&M
7. Wisconsin
7. Michigan

8. Missouri
8. Florida
8. Cincinnati
8. BYU (MWC)

9. Georgetown
9. SIENA (MAAC)
9. Duke
9. Arizona State

10. UTAH STATE (WAC)
10. Baylor
10. GONZAGA (WCC)
10. Virginia

11. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
11. Oklahoma State
11. NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
11. UNLV

12. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
12. Boston College
12. Pittsburgh
12. Creighton

13. Illinois
13. KENT STATE (MAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. CORNELL (IVY)

14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. IUPUI (SUMMIT)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. WOFFORD (SOUTHERN)
15. SAM HOUSTON STATE (SOUTHLAND)

16. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)

Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
NC State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Xavier, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Northwestern, Penn State, Kansas State, UTEP, Tulsa, Wright State, Niagara, Bradley, Utah, Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Portland, Saint Mary's, Nevada, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Florida State, Miami (Fl), La Salle, St. Joseph's, Saint Louis, Marquette, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, Indiana, Nebraska, George Mason, Old Dominion, UAB, UCF, Valparaiso, Rider, Akron, Ohio, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, New Mexico, TCU, Wyoming, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, Davidson, North Texas, Troy, Santa Clara, Boise State, Fresno State

Coming Soon: The New BP65

2009-06-26T12:31:00.001-04:00

With the NBA Draft completed, the newest BP65 is on the way soon. I'm still working a few things out, but I expect it to be up online at some point later today.

Elliot Williams Leaves Duke

2009-06-24T12:18:00.003-04:00

This is a disaster for Duke. There were a lot of different reasons for why Duke went on a run late in last season, but to me nothing meant more than the move of Elliot Williams into the starting lineup. He gave Duke another player who could create, and who had great athleticism. After not playing more than 15 minutes in an ACC game all season, Williams played 30+ minutes in each of their last six ACC games. He averaged 11 points in those games, and the team went 5-1 with that one loss being an exciting 8 point loss in UNC's home finale.

With Gerald Henderson gone, Williams was going to be the only truly athletic wing player. Duke is now left with a very thin team, featuring a mediocre back court of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, with no recruits incoming. Martynas Pocius is gone, and Seth Curry has to sit out next year as a transfer. As far as I can tell, the only guard left is fifth year senior Jordan Davidson, a walk-on. There's no way that Davidson will play significant minutes, and with no good recruits left out there, it seems as if Kyle Singler is going to have to play some shooting guard. That's the only way this will work.

If Singler has to play as a shooting guard, then that just puts even more pressure on Duke's big men to finally take a step forward. Brian Zoubek is going to have to get quicker so that he can play more time. Lance Thomas is going to have to get better, and Mason Plumlee is going to have to take the leap in his second season. I don't think Duke has a lot of faith in Olek Czyz ever becoming very good, which means that any other production will have to come from their recruiting class: Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Both players are 6'10" or so, and I'd give Mason Plumlee a better shot at being a quality player as a freshman.

Certainly we now have to revise our expectations for the 2009-10 ACC season. There won't be a team of the quality of the 2008-09 Tar Heels in the ACC next season, but I still don't see any way that Duke makes a serious run at the conference title now. I think we're down to a three team race, between North Carolina, Maryland and Clemson. I think I'd even move Georgia Tech ahead of Duke into fourth place in the ACC. It's going to be a long year in Durham.

Clemson Grabs Noel Johnson

2009-06-20T16:43:00.002-04:00

As I mentioned briefly in this post earlier today, Clemson has capitalized off of the USC implosion by grabbing the top Trojan recruit still on the market: Noel Johnson. This is a nice recovery by Oliver Purnell after he was surprised by the abrupt departure of Terrence Oglesby to Europe.

Now, Johnson isn't a "replacement" for Oglesby any more than a baseball team can replace a pitcher by trading for an outfielder. Johnson has more natural skill than Oglesby, and is the better NBA prospect (Oglesby will almost definitely spend his entire pro career in Europe), but he is more of a conventional swing forward. Oglesby brought a unique skill to Clemson in that he was an old school shooter, with a range that seemed to extend to mid court. The way he spread the floor really opened things up for everybody else, and his absence is going to mean many more double teams for star big man Trevor Booker. That all said, Johnson is a better all-around player and talent than Oglesby, and he will certainly be a big part of their plans for next season. And hopes are high at Clemson, where they will be a contender in a wide open ACC.

I've talked about the ACC quite a bit: my 2009-10 preview from two months ago is here, and my most recent analysis of the conference was just five days ago and is here. At this point, it's hard to choose between North Carolina, Duke, Maryland and Clemson, and all four have an excellent shot to win. North Carolina probably has the most overall talent, but they're going to be very young and inexperienced, and they're likely going to have the post-Championship hangover. Duke is the next most talented team, but they're also fairly young, and still will likely have the same lack of size they've had the last few years (I know that Duke fans insist that they've finally got somebody in Mason Plumlee, but I'll believe it when I see it). Clemson and Maryland are both experienced squads compared to Duke and UNC. Maryland has the best single player in Grievis Vasquez, but Clemson has more all around depth with the signing of Noel Johnson. I'd also throw in Georgia Tech as a dark horse because of all of the great young talent, but right now I would put my money on Duke, UNC, Maryland and Clemson to be the four top teams in the ACC, in some order.

Kevin O'Neill Takes Over USC

2009-06-20T14:20:00.002-04:00

It's been a busy summer at USC, and basically all of the news has been bad, but I think they made as good of a hire as they could have by grabbing ex-Arizona coach Kevin O'Neill. It's been well known that USC has tried to grab big name coaches (like Jamie Dixon), and all have turned them down. The fact is that USC's basketball program is in horrible shape (I'll get to that in more detail in a moment), and things might get worse before they get better, and USC just doesn't have a big enough name to grab an elite coach when they're down (unlike Kentucky).

I think Kevin O'Neill is a better coach than he's been given credit for. Remember that Lute Olsen had originally picked him as the "coach in waiting" at Arizona, so he once had a very bright future. His tenure at Arizona was bumpy, but it wasn't all his fault. Olsen famously made things more difficult in his year off by talking to players behind O'Neill's back, and apparently actually separating the locker room between those loyal to O'Neill and those loyal to Olsen. Basically, he wasn't given a fair chance. I think O'Neill will be one coach who will find USC a fairly pleasant situation. He'll be given a long leash, with absolutely zero expectations this coming season. Nobody will be looking over his back, and he'll have the ability to build a program essentially from scratch. Will he ever build USC back to a Pac-10 contending team? Impossible to say right now. But we'll find out.

Now, let's talk a bit about where USC's team stands. The impetus for the collapse of the program began when it was first reported that Tim Floyd paid money to a handler of OJ Mayo. It then surprised nobody that every USC player that initially declared for the NBA Draft decided to stay in the Draft (DeMar DeRozen, Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson). Superduper recruit Renardo Sidney left. Star recruit Noel Johnson asked out of his commitment, and has just signed with Clemson (more on that in a post later today). Tim Floyd saw the writing on the wall and quit. The two other key recruits from the '09 class (Lamont Jones and Derrick Williams) have also asked out. The only recruit left is Evan Smith, rated the 156th best small forward in the nation according to ESPN.

There is still the potential of players transferring out, but for the time being nobody from last year's team has announced anything. So for the team being, USC still does have one legitimate Pac-10 starter in Dwight Lewis. Lewis will be expected to score 18-21 points per game if USC is going to even make a run at the NIT. They also have a couple of decent role players remaining, including Marcus Simmons and Leonard Washington. They also have a quality transfer in Alex Stephenson, from North Carolina. Those are all forwards, however. One thing you can't control when a ton of players leave at once is whether you have a good distribution around the floor. It would have been difficult enough replacing Daniel Hackett, who was one of the five best point guards in the nation last year. But USC will have almost no back court next season. They return two guards that played more than garbage minutes: Dwight Lewis and Donte Smith. Lewis, of course, will be very good. But Smith is not that impressive of a point guard, with 1.3 turnovers per assist in limited time last season. And beyond those two: who?

Kevin O'Neill's first task will have to be finding a couple of guards, either Juco recruits or something. After that, it's about building up the 2010 and 2011 recruiting classes. This coming season is going to be a loss, with almost no chance for postseason play. O'Neill will simply need to hope that the NCAA doesn't come down on the program and allows him to rebuild for the future.

Austin Daye, Chinemelu Elonu In

2009-06-15T19:15:00.003-04:00

Gonzaga and Texas A&M both got bad news today, as Austin Daye will stay in the Draft, as will Chinemelu Elonu. I have to say that I was fairly surprised by both of these. Daye was very highly touted out of High School, but he really has never fulfilled his potential. He's been a quality player, but it constantly feels like he should be a lot better than he is. I don't see why he's suddenly going to take the leap after he hits the NBA. And as for Elonu, he's clearly a project. Why spend a year in the D-League if you can play another year in the NCAA building your stock?

Gonzaga was going to be favored in the WCC with or without Daye, but this will certainly drop them from the 8 seed I had them placed a month ago.

As for Texas A&M, I'm not sure yet how this will affect them. Elonu wasn't a huge scorer, and so with both Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis both dropping out of the Draft the Aggies will still have two of their three double-digit scorers back (graduating senior Josh Carter was the third). Elonu's presence was felt most on the boards (he led the team with 7.3 per game) and defending the paint (he led the team with 1.6 blocks per game). Davis will likely be the team's leading rebounder and shot-blocker next season (he was second to Elonu in both categories this past season), and will have to make the leap to becoming one of the real best post players in the Big 12 if Texas A&M is going to live up to their potential. I had projected the Aggies to finish third in the Big 12, with a five seed in the Tournament. That will drop with Elonu gone, but not too much.

Greivis Vasquez, Luke Harangody Out

2009-06-15T19:00:00.002-04:00

Good news for both Maryland and Notre Dame: Greivis Vasquez is out of the Draft, and so is Luke Harangody.

Starting with Harangody, this seems like an acknowledgment that he'll never be an NBA player. If he thought he could make it in the NBA, he'd have gone this season. His stock won't be any higher next year, and the 2010 Draft will be better and deeper. And Notre Dame is likely going to stink next season, losing Kyle McAlarney, Zach Hillesland, Ryan Ayers and Luke Zeller. That said, Harangody changes things a lot, and might potentially get Notre Dame back to the bubble. Tory Jackson will be one of the better players in the Big East, and I liked Tyrone Nash in brief flashes last season.

The Big East will be different in 2009-10 than it was in 2008-09. Last year the Big East had six or seven truly elite teams, but after that there was a huge gap to the rest of the conferene. The bottom half of the conference was really weak. In 2009-10 I expect the top of the conference to be much weaker, with the possibility of only one team in the Top Ten (Villanova seems like a clear Top Ten team, but I don't see any other Big East teams that seem good enough to be Top Ten). But the middle and bottom of the conference should be stronger: teams like Cincinnati, St. John's, Seton Hall and Rutgers should all be better. Notre Dame will most likely be somewhere in the 8th-12th range in the Big East, even with Harangody. I still think they're fairly long shots for the Tournament, but at least Harangody gives them a shot.

As for Maryland, I think Vasquez made the right decision. He's a very good college player, but I don't think he'll ever make it to the NBA. He might as well try to lead Maryland to a little NCAA Tournament run and then head off to Europe. And I do think Maryland has a shot to be pretty good next year. The ACC will be really wide open at the top of the conference. In my 2009-10 previews I put Maryland third in the conference, but I could honestly see North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Clemson, or even Georgia Tech, make a run at the ACC Championship. North Carolina and Duke will be the most talented, but Maryland probably has the most experience. Like Tennessee in the SEC, you can't discount the ability of experience to beat out better talent.

Jodie Meeks Stays In Draft

2009-06-15T14:17:00.003-04:00

I spoke two days ago about how Tennessee had gotten a bunch of a good news in a row, and that trend continues today as Jodie Meeks reportedly will stay in the NBA Draft. This is a bit of a surprise, but I don't understand why some people are so perplexed. The fact is that this is a pretty weak NBA Draft, so even with a good season next year I'm not sure Meeks gets drafted any higher. And there's always the risk of an injury, or that he plays badly. Sure, the chance of a National Title is a great allure, but Meeks also has to think about his future. It's not like he has $100 Million in his future - he's got to make his money when he can.

This puts a lot of pressure now on Patrick Patterson. I spoke about a month ago about how he was more important to bring back than Meeks, as far as Kentucky fans should be concerned. Meeks is the more electric scorer, but Patterson is a glue-guy, and he will be necessary to try to hold together a team that will have a lot of young players with really big egos. But will he be enough? There won't be a lot of experience in their starting lineup next year other than him, including the likelihood that they'll start three freshmen.

I don't think there's any question that Kentucky will have the most talent in the SEC, and they're arguably the most talented team in the country (although I'd give Kansas the edge). But talent alone isn't always enough, and it's a mistake to hand the conference over to them. Tennessee, Mississippi State, Florida (and maybe even LSU) will give them a battle. Even Vanderbilt should be a very good team. The SEC stunk last year, but they'll be a whole lot better in 2010. Don't be too surprised to see the conference get six Tournament teams.

NBA Draft Deadline; Can Tennessee Win The SEC?

2009-06-13T13:58:00.003-04:00

We're reaching the final hours of NBA Draft decisions. Underclassmen have until 5pm on Monday afternoon to get out of the Draft or they forfeit their collegiate eligibility. There haven't been a whole lot of surprising players into the Draft that I haven't talked about yet. Patty Mills is in, which isn't a big shock, neither is Shawn Taggart jumping the scandal-laden Memphis ship. Jrue Holiday is expected to sign as well. Andy Katz has the rundown on those players that still have to make a decision.

One player I'm surprised not to see in the Draft is Tennessee's Tyler Smith. Smith is one of the two players I had projected to go into the Draft who has already announced they will drop out (LSU's Tasmin Mitchell being the other). This is great news for a Tennessee team that is also going to benefit from the departure of Nick Calathes from Florida. Even assuming that Smith went pro, I still had Tennessee second in the SEC East, and on pace for a 3 seed in the Tournament. With Smith back, they should unquestionably be the chief competition for Kentucky in the SEC.

I would expect LSU to seriously challenge Mississippi State for the SEC West title now they've got Mitchell back, but they won't be as good as they were last season. Mississippi State, of course, has a great recruiting class coming in, but I need to see them prove that they can win consistently against more experienced opponents before I take them seriously for the SEC Title. And Florida is probably out of the SEC title race with Calathes gone, even though Alex Tyus should help keep them competitive.

So that leaves things down to Kentucky and Tennessee. As amazing as it would sound to say this five years ago, Tennessee is the steady, experienced team that has the recent history of winning. Kentucky is the upstart full of extremely talented young kids who haven't really won a whole lot, or even played on the collegiate level. Kentucky will be the favorite preseason, and I am going to have them as my projected SEC Champion and a 1 seed when the new BP65 comes out in a couple of weeks. But don't be confused into thinking that Kentucky is a lock by any means. You never know with so many young kids under so much pressure, with the University's huge expectations bearing down on them, and with a head coach under fire for his recruiting practices. It's a combustible situation, and it might explode. And if something crazy happens, expect Tennessee to be there to steal the SEC Title.

NCAA To Add Invisible Line Under Basket

2009-06-01T15:44:00.003-04:00

The NBA made a good decision a few years back when they added a semi-circle underneath the basket wherein no defensive player could draw a charging foul. It made sense, because it's irritating to watch help defenders slide underneath the basket and force contact on any attempt at the basket. It hurts the game in two ways, by discouraging players from attacking the basket, and by drastically increasing the number of fouls called (both offensive and defensive) as refs are forced to blow the whistle on nearly every drive.

The NCAA is expected to rule this week that they will add an arc themselves... only they won't actually be drawing anything on the ground. The referees are expected to make a judgment call. Now how can it possibly be better to not draw the arc? It's not. it's just another example of the college and professional leagues having huge egos and refusing to look like they're copying each other.

It's why the NFL and NCAA football go out of their way to have different rules for inbound/out-of-bounds, coaches challenges, overtime and many other things. And it's why the NBA and NCAA basketball continue to have so many differences, including jump balls and timeouts. Even when one league has a rule that clearly is superior (such as NCAA football's overtime rule), the other league can't be seen to copy. Egos always win out over common sense.

Hopefully the NCAA will get some common sense and agree to add the circle. It's already difficult enough for refs to call the modern game with its speed and athleticism. Let's not make things any more difficult.

Definitely A Surprise: Terrence Oglesby To Europe

2009-05-28T15:39:00.002-04:00

I don't think anybody saw this one coming: Terrence Oglesby is giving up his final two seasons of eligibility to play in Europe. In retrospect, while it's surprising that he's giving up two years of being a leading player in the ACC, it's not a surprise that he's going to play professionally in Europe. According to ESPN, Oglesby's father played in Europe, and he's got dual citizenship with Norway. The dual citizenship aspect is very important, because the top European leagues all have quotas for the number of Americans you can have, and so Americans who can play under a European citizenship, like Oglesby and Nick Calathes, are a great catch.

Unfortunately, a lot of top American coaches still don't have a grasp of what is going on in Europe, and I think that's going to be a big problem in the near future. Maybe I'll talk more about this in a longer post, but you can get a sense of the problem in Oliver Purnell's quotes from the CNNSI article:

Purnell only wishes Oglesby had given him time to weigh in before choosing Europe, apparently a trendy path among some U.S. players like Florida's Nick Calathes and high school senior-to-be from San Diego, Jeremy Tyler.

Purnell has heard many good things about playing in Europe. He's also described "horror stories" of not getting paid, or getting cut suddenly.

Now, obviously Purnell needs to be given a little slack because he's miffed that Oglesby made this decision without asking his advice. But I'm surprised that he still falls for these "horror stories" myths. As I've explained before, it seems like many American basketball coaches and analysts view Europe as some third world despotic environment, where there is no rule of law and anything goes. This is idiotic, to say the least. These kids are going to play ball in Italy, Norway and Greece... not Iran. They will sign a contract, and that contract will state exactly what the payment situation will be. If the team is going to be allowed to cut them without paying the rest of their salary, that must be in the contract. They can't just change the rules of the contract ex post facto.

Now, there certainly are real issues that some American kids might not grasp. For example, travel is not nearly as glamorous, and neither are the arenas. They might not realize that they'll be staying in a lot of crappy hotels, and playing in some really small gyms. But that's a far cry from the vague "horror stories" myth that continues to dominate the landscape of American discussions of European basketball.

Americans are going to have to come to terms with the reality of European basketball before it's too late. It is a real competitor with NCAA basketball, whether we want it to be or not. You can't blame a kid for wanting to take $1 Million in Europe if it's clear that he's never going to make $100 Million in the NBA.

Additionally, it's worth noting that the loss of Oglesby is really going to be tough for a Clemson team that relied so heavily on his outside shooting. It's no secret that Purnell was going to use Oglesby's massive shooting range to help keep defenses from collapsing on Trevor Booker in the post. I don't see anybody on the Clemson roster who can fill Oglesby's shoes, although one player to keep an eye on is rising-sophomore Andre Young, the best returning three-point shooter from last year's team.

I originally picked Clemson to finish 2nd in the ACC and to earn a 2 seed in the Tournament. Obviously that will drop now. I did see a fairly big gap between North Carolina and Clemson and the rest of the ACC, so I wouldn't totally rule out the possibility of Clemson finishing 1st or 2nd in the ACC. But for now I will have to drop them to around a 4-5 seed in the Tournament.

USC To Release Noel Johnson

2009-05-26T18:02:00.002-04:00

Or so it's being reported by ESPN. Noel Johnson is a 6'7" guard out of Georgia who is considered highly skilled and refined, and was expected to play a huge role as a freshman anywhere he went. Supposedly he wants out of USC because of the investigations into OJ Mayo and the other possible misdeeds at USC over the past few years. I don't blame the kid, because there's obviously a decent chance that the school will face some sort of punishment. You don't want to have your college career ruined by ethical scandals that you had nothing to do with.

As for where he'll go, there are a bunch of possible options. The hometown Georgia Tech Yellowjackets have to be considered in the picture, as they were one of the teams that offered him a scholarship originally. So did Louisville, although I'm not sure if they have any scholarships left anymore. Other than that, I'm sure that just about any top program with a '09 scholarship spot left open is going to make a move on him. We'll see over the next few weeks what he narrows his choices down to, and I'll try to keep updated on the situation.

As for USC, this continues to be just an awful, awful offseason. Considering the investigations going on at the school, it's no surprise that Daniel Hackett and DeMar DeRozen have left for the NBA, and that Taj Gibson is likely to stay in the Draft as well. Throw in the graduation of Keith Wilkinson and the transfer out of Donte Smith and USC is due to return only two players that collected even 100 total minutes on the floor last season (Dwight Lewis and Leonard Washington). The loss of Johnson (combined with the loss of Renardo Sidney) means that they only have two highly regarded recruits that are still signed: Derrick Williams is a quick and skilled power forward who will probably be more suited to the small forward position in the Pac-10, where he'll be a little undersized for the paint, and Lamont Jones is a highly skilled and athletic shoot-first point guard, who should put up a lot of points to go with a lot of turnovers. But neither of those recruits are expected to be stars from day one like Johnson was, and it's safe to say that it's going to be a very, very long year for Trojans basketball fans.

I originally projected USC to finish fifth in the Pac-10 in 2010, and to collect a 10 seed in the Tournament. But those projections assumed that they'd have Taj Gibson, Renardo Sidney and Noel Johnson on the team. Sidney is now gone, Johnson is as good as gone, and Gibson looks likely to leave as well. Assuming that the reports on Johnson are true, and that Gibson stays in the Draft, I don't see any likely path to the Tournament for USC. They'll be talented enough that they'll be worth keeping an eye on, but they will certainly be out of the next BP65 (due out in about a month). At this point, a higher priority than saving the 2009-10 season should probably be trying to save the program for future years by beating the investigations and proving that the school did nothing wrong.

Memphis Grabs Latavious Williams

2009-05-26T17:35:00.002-04:00

Josh Pastner has his first blue chip recruit, with Latavious Williams committing today to play for Memphis. Not only is Williams a good recruit, but he also increases the chances that Memphis will land Lance Stephenson, a player who Williams has encouraged to come to Memphis, and who I continue to feel is a logical fit at Memphis, despite reports to the contrary.

I think it can be argued that Latavious is a slightly lower risk and slightly lower reward than Stephenson. He is not rated quite as highly as Stephenson, but he is a 6'7" wing forward who has tremendous athleticism and upside. The player I have seen him most commonly compared to is Shawn Marion. And I'm unaware of any major personality issues and legal issues, like those surrounding Stephenson. But that said, it's not even a certainly that Latavious will play next season. He has major academic woes, which is a fact which greatly reduced his number of suitors right off the bat. It's being reported all over the place that he might play the full season, that he might miss the first semester, or that he might not play at all next year. Williams himself says that he is enrolling in summer school programs and believes he has a 75 percent chance of playing next year.

But even if Latavious doesn't play, the signing will mean a lot for Memphis, because it means that there will be at least some life after Calipari. While nobody knows yet whether Pastner will be as good at handling personnel and in-game coaching as Calipari, there appear to be no doubts that he's an outstanding recruiter. And at least for the time being, Memphis should continue to out-recruit the rest of the Conference USA and stay a perennial Tournament team. I'm dubious about whether they will ever be a national power again, but they won't completely disappear from the national stage.

This is a great sign to 2010, 2011 and 2012 recruits that they can still consider Memphis a serious destination where they'll be able to play with top talent and compete at the highest level. And assuming that nobody else transfers out, Memphis should be a near-lock to take Conference USA again and to collect a solid seed in the Tournament in 2010. Even without Lance Stephenson or Shawn Taggart, I see them in the 8-11 seed range (assuming Latavious can play at least the second semester). If Lance signs or Taggart returns, I might move them up closer to a 5-7 seed.

Vander Blue And The Internet

2009-05-25T20:02:00.002-04:00

One of the big recruiting stories of the week was the de-committing of star 2010 recruit Vander Blue from the University of Wisconsin. Now, de-commits happen all the time, but this is a big story because of why: the Internet. Blue has had academic troubles, and there have been questions for some time whether he would go to a school like Marquette (Wisconsin's biggest rival, and chief in-state recruiting competitor) simply because he wouldn't be able to handle Wisconsin's academics. The problem is that this talk began to dominate Wisconsin basketball message boards. Blue read what was on the message boards, and it bothered him, and now he's re-opened his commitment.

Now, a lot of ink has been spilled analyzing this situation, but I think the best analysis comes from, believe it or not, Gary Parrish. Yes, that Gary Parrish. First of all, I think people often forget that athletes are real people. Think about when you were a 16 year old kid, and how many stupid things you did. Now imagine if a bunch of pompous, self-righteous 45-year old men were analyzing your mistakes and talking about how much you did wrong, and all in a public forum? How would you feel?

And besides that, I think it's just a more general problem, as Parrish says, with the anonymity on the Internet. Go look at the nasty comments on basically any article on any major news or sports website. Go look at the nasty comments on any team's message boards, or even in the comments on blogs (like the idiot Memphis fans who constantly come on here and call me names that I have to censor every time I dare talk about Memphis). People behave this way because of anonymity, and for two reasons. For one thing, people can say things that they'd be embarrassed to say in public. But I think a lesser known reason is that when you're on the computer you often forget that you're talking to real people. It's easy to get out our demons screaming at our computer screen, and it's easy to forget that a real person is going to be reading that. As Parrish says:

I can't tell you how many wild (and anonymous) words are written about me each month either on message boards or via e-mail; words that question my integrity, background, education, sexuality, hairstyle (that one's open for criticism, I suppose) and anything else you can imagine. Every once in a while, I actually take the time to respond in the most reasonable way I know. And more times than not, I get a response within hours from somebody apologizing and explaining how they wouldn't never been so rude or brash or ignorant if they really believed I would read it.

How many of those flaming "fans" would say those same things if they were actually staring at a real person? Almost none of them. And unfortunately, that's something which isn't going to change anytime soon. As long as people are talking to a computer screen rather than a real person, they are going to continue to behave as if no real person is going to read what they're typing, and they're going to behave in a way they never would in real life. And that's too bad.

Nick Calathes Goes Pro

2009-05-25T19:35:00.004-04:00

It's official. What's interesting is that Calathes is officially leaving the NCAA, but he's also dropping out of the NBA Draft. Why? Because he's signing a contract with Panathinaikos, the top team in Greece. They just won the 2008-09 Euroleague Championship three weeks ago, so obviously Calathes is going to a top team. The current roster includes Sarunas Jasikevicius (probably best known for his years with the Indiana Pacers) and Drew Nicholas (made the All-ACC team a few years back with Maryland). I don't blame Calathes for making the move, since the salary he is due to make ($1.1 Million, not including things like a free house and car) is probably more than he was going to make if he stayed in the NBA Draft.

Needless to say, this is a tough loss for Florida. It seems as if they expected Calathes to stay for the same reason that I thought he would, the fact that he wasn't likely to be a first round draft pick. The reason I say this is that the Calathes defection seems to have caught them off guard, and they're supposedly scrambling to get into the Lance Stephenson race.

Now, I had warned that the loss of Calathes and Alex Tyus might drop Florida out of the Tournament altogether, but with Tyus changing his mind and sticking with the Gators, I still expect them to be a Tournament team. In addition to Tyus they'll also return Dan Werner and Chandler Parsons from the starting lineup, as well as Kenny Kadji, Erving Walker and Ray Shipman off the bench, not to mention blue chip recruits Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy. But I don't see how they have the talent to stay with Kentucky, or even Mississippi State. I think it's pretty clear that Tennessee will be better as well. That seems to put them in a battle with Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU and South Carolina for the fourth SEC spot in the Tournament (and I do think that the SEC will get four or five Tournament teams in 2010). I'll have to re-evaluate their roster before the next BP65 (due out in about a month), but right now I see Florida as something like an 8-10 seed in March. Obviously that will change if they can grab Stephenson.

Lance Stephenson To Arizona? Don't Count Out Memphis

2009-05-21T13:02:00.003-04:00

Adam Zagoria is reporting that Lance Stephenson's choices are now down to Arizona and Maryland. This isn't a huge surprise, as those were two of the key schools I spoke about in my long rundown on the Stephenson situation here.

What I've found interesting is that neither Arizona or Maryland fans seem all too excited about the prospect of this kid. So I don't think either program will go out on a limb to get the kid just to appease the fan base.

I honestly don't see any reason why Maryland would want him after the issues with Under Armour. Gary Williams has always run a very clean program, and has often missed out on top recruits because he doesn't want trouble makers, and he's been there long enough and has enough of a track record that he's not going to take a recruit he doesn't want just to make his school administration happy, especially after the way he fought back on this very issue a few months ago (see here and here).

As for Arizona, I spoke about their issues in the aforementioned Stephenson post. I argued that Stephenson doesn't help that program in the long run, because it's very important that Sean Miller sets a positive tone from day one at Arizona. If he has behavior problems and personality clashes right from the start it could take a couple of years to recover. And there's no big pressure on him to win right now. Miller's huge success at Xavier, along with Arizona's massive loss of players to the NBA Draft, means that nobody is going to call for him to be fired if they miss the Tournament next year. Of course, I can understand why Miller doesn't want to be the coach to break that Tournament streak (I believe it's up to 25 straight years now), and if he believes that Stephenson could be the difference between sneaking into the 2010 Tournament or falling short, and that there isn't a lot of risk of Stephenson poisoning the program going forward, Miller might take that chance.

But despite the reports, I continue to believe that Memphis is a logical location. They are without a doubt the most desperate team for a star recruit to prove that there will be life after Calipari. They are for the first time in their school history in a conference that just stinks from top to bottom, and they no longer have Calipari to grab top recruits. If they can nab Stephenson then that will be a huge sign to 2010, 2011 and 2012 blue chip recruits that they should still be seriously considering Memphis. And with so much experience on the team (unlike Arizona, which will be very young and without a clear team leader), they will be better equipped to handle a Freshman with a huge ego.

Of course, it's possible that this situation can continue to drag on for a long time, so don't expect any resolution in the next few days. But at least it does seem like we have narrowed down the options somewhat.