tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22885089859451076882009-07-10T00:33:38.332-07:00Yesfx國際版..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.comBlogger234125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-45856862959771729032009-07-07T23:21:00.000-07:002009-07-07T23:28:41.271-07:00<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/Forex_Correlations__July___How_Do_1246919368662.html">FXCM原始資料連結</a><---點這<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SlQ8H5fweKI/AAAAAAAABKk/mwkqPRVqwZw/s1600-h/cor.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 126px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SlQ8H5fweKI/AAAAAAAABKk/mwkqPRVqwZw/s400/cor.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5355971963241134242" /></a><br /><br /><strong>主要行情摘要:<br /><br />1.美股陷入橫向盤整. <br />2.日元相關性再度轉正. <br />3.經濟數據開始出現好壞參半現象.</strong><br /><br />上個月相關係數:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/06/5fx-correlations-may-2009.html">5月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (May 2009) </a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-4585686295977172903?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-69146379569912644182009-06-25T19:24:00.000-07:002009-06-25T23:39:55.097-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SkQyvQ042VI/AAAAAAAABIs/SexkvFiiK6g/s1600-h/300_84198.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 133px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SkQyvQ042VI/AAAAAAAABIs/SexkvFiiK6g/s200/300_84198.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5351458044775029074" /></a><strong>想要成為專業的分析師嗎?其實不難.只要掌握好訣竅,這個30分鐘速成大法.說不定會改變您的人生喔...</strong><br /><br /><strong>初階分析師:</strong><br /><br />要成為一位準確的分析師.<strong>第一個步驟就是要學會描述"行情可能上漲,也可能下跌"這件事</strong>.當然不能講得這麼露骨,要略作包裝.比如說:目前行情短多長空,投資人應該謹慎樂觀.但嚴防回跌.或者:行情上漲100點後可能續漲,但跌101點之後就可能轉向下跌...當行情下跌3000點之後,可以表示:還有低點!行情可能再跌50點,但不排除反彈上漲的可能性.<br /><br />分析師不能看不懂行情,而且還要準確.只要學會這這招,就能面面俱到.唯一的壞處是.你自己都會搞不懂要如何依照自己的判斷去投資!<br /><br /><strong>進階分析師:</strong><br /><br />初階技巧淺顯易學.但當投資人發現分析師漲也對,跌也對時,很容易就看破手腳.也不容易突顯特色.<strong>因此想要更上一層樓,一定要學會"危言聳聽"</strong>.第一個喊台股上2萬點,不然就喊跌破2000,先喊先贏.市場永遠不會記得追隨者.第一個喊的人.只要對了.媒體就會俸上"股神"或者"末日博士"."巴菲特接班人"等名號.錯了也不用擔心.<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/10/survivorship-bias.html">存活者偏差</a>會保護您,就算有人記得.投資人記億力不過3個月而已.耐心等過120天後.不用投胎.您又是一條好漢!<br /><br />危言聳聽很簡單.但要讓人相信你不是神經病才是重點.要學會進階技巧.<strong>最重要的就是必需在分析中隨時暗示投資人你是個成功的專家</strong>.比如說,強調別人都是賠錢散戶,或者花1/2以上的篇幅詳細描述如何在2008年5/21日就開始看空.或者1985年自己如何大賺..(請參考:<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/04/blog-post.html">投資大師們的金融詐騙術(一):盡力強調贏虧 </a>),更進階的手法.是用生活化的口吻,盡可能的詳細描述自己的財富,顯赫學經歷.比如說:不經意的提起BMW 7系列的駕車經驗,或者隨口抱怨一下杜拜帆船飯店中餐提供的魚子醬不夠高級...<br /><br />只有這些暗示成功後,危言聳聽才會被視為預言,而非胡言亂語.<br /><br /><strong>高階分析師:</strong><br /><br />當你學會前兩項方法後.在正規金融業,與富人的眼中,仍是不入流的小丑,上不了臺面.有錢人怕綁架,怕繳稅,因此跟本不會想談自己的財產.要能吸引富人的目光.就需要有點真材實料:<br /><br />這時上述兩大招仍然不變.但必需懂得用經濟學與數據去包裝.預期行情要崩潰,談一下M1,槓桿,羅倫茲曲線.漲時看漲時也不用像沒見過世面的人一樣拼命喊盤,從容的聊一下"和平紅利"不就高雅多了??越罕見,甚至自創的名詞,都能讓你看起來像個經濟學大師.令人景仰.<br /><br />當你達到此境界,而且真的有顯赫MBA學歷.那金融機構會爭相聘請你當首席經濟學家!<br /><br /><strong>致命傷:</strong><br /><br />你在追求準確的分析師之路努力越久.成就會越高.不過時間久了.最相信你的分析判斷的就會是你自己.再怎麼警覺都沒用.某一天你決定據此進場投資後.就會深深的體會命運總是作弄人...<br /><br /><strong>因此請將這句話當作人生的座右銘:"分析師為了保持超然的客觀性,不適合作真實操作!"</strong><br /><br />等你打從心底認同這句話.<strong>恭喜你!你已經 天 _ 下 _ 無 _ 敵 !!</strong><br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-post.html">投資人,分析師,記者,三者的基本差異 </a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-6914637956991264418?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-80464049571199683512009-06-19T00:14:00.000-07:002009-06-19T00:35:26.467-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs_qhgI7cI/AAAAAAAABIg/gtGoq3D6vzc/s1600-h/logo.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 176px; height: 74px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs_qhgI7cI/AAAAAAAABIg/gtGoq3D6vzc/s200/logo.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348938982212824514" /></a><br /><a href="http://www.intrade.com/">http://www.intrade.com/</a><br /><br />這個網站是一個對所有群眾關心議題作未來事件作交易的機構.在分眾決策的理論下.一小群人透過交易顯示出來的結果,會比專家的準確度更高.這類的未來事件交易所在對選舉的預測上準確率遠遠高於民調.<br /><br />近期有兩個議題出現與目前輿論認知巨大的差異:<br /><br /><strong>1.US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 to be greater than 10.00% </strong><br /><br />目前美國的失業率是9.4%,並以每個月0.5%的速度增加中(<a href="http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm">資料點此</a>)<br />但投票認為12月突破10%的機率只有75%.這表示這些"非專家"認為,就算近期超過10%,Q4以前就會開始下降!<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs9HRzl7iI/AAAAAAAABIQ/2NPBoYJQGkw/s1600-h/chart12434390713609887.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 159px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs9HRzl7iI/AAAAAAAABIQ/2NPBoYJQGkw/s400/chart12434390713609887.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348936177680772642" /></a><br /><br /><strong>2.United States GDP growth for Q3 of 2009 will be postive </strong><br /><br />美國Q3 GDP會轉正??這機率剛超過50%<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs9wfjC6eI/AAAAAAAABIY/PEU9yLXdFQI/s1600-h/chart12434390713609888.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 159px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sjs9wfjC6eI/AAAAAAAABIY/PEU9yLXdFQI/s400/chart12434390713609888.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348936885744101858" /></a><br /><br />我已自認對美國的景氣非常樂觀.但這個網站的投票結果樂觀程度超過我的想像!這一堆不知名的臭皮匠的群體智慧.是否能戰勝華爾街的現在諸葛亮們..咱們拭目以待.看到年底就知道了.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008us-election.html">2008美國大選US Election即時觀察 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-8046404957119968351?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-55070269516199085382009-06-11T20:10:00.000-07:002009-06-11T20:39:59.782-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SjHMnU5TVjI/AAAAAAAABII/jjVOrfmwtWo/s1600-h/Img255328640.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 225px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SjHMnU5TVjI/AAAAAAAABII/jjVOrfmwtWo/s320/Img255328640.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5346279208661505586" /></a><br /><a href="http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20090611/bch145751.asp?source=mostpopular1">中國出口加速下滑令刺激計劃有效性受質疑</a> chinese.wsj.com<br /><br />"毫無疑問﹐今年迄今為止國內消費主要在政府的引領下進行。今年前五個月國有企業的固定資產投資增長40.6%﹐而外資企業的資本支出幾乎沒有增長。但主要由私人領域推動的房地產投資在5月份增長了12%﹐這是受房地產銷售持續升溫推動新樓盤建設的影響。這讓市場看到了在政府加大基礎設施項目建設的同時﹐企業也逐步開始加大投資的希望。"<br /><br /><strong>中國經濟與國際接軌,必需公佈越來越詳細的經濟數字,這也讓國際投資人能夠更清楚的了解現況.</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://big5.ce.cn/cysc/ny/dl/200906/03/t20090603_19223167.shtml">中國5月發電量同比減少3.54%</a><br /><br />儘管被寄予厚望，但中國電力運行指標的“積極回暖”尚未清晰出現：5月，全國發電量2897．19億千瓦時，同比減少3．54％。 <br /><br />這一降幅數字，與4月份全國發電量3．55％的下降幅度基本持平。 <br /><br /><a href="http://tw.money.yahoo.com/news_article/adbf/d_a_090604_3_1iqjo">中國5月份新增貸款 約5,000億人民幣</a><br /><br />據了解，今年第一季，中國人民幣貸款增加4.58兆元，這個數據， 比去年同期增加3.25兆元；首季單月的新增貸款，都超過1兆元。<br /><br /><a href="http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=7&fi=%5CNEWSBASE%5C20090612%5CWEB694&vi=32363&sdt=20090610&edt=20090612&top=50&date=20090612&time=09:48:25&cls=index15_totalnews">前5月固定資產投資增速創5年新高</a><br /><br />國家統計局昨日公佈，1月至5月城鎮固定資產投資為53520億元，同比增長32.9%，增幅比1月至4月高2.4個百分點。其中，5月城鎮固定資產投資達1.64萬億元，單月同比增幅近39%。而32.9%的增幅，是城鎮固定資產投資5年來最高增速，僅次於2004年1月至5月的34.8%<br /><br /><strong>2008年中國的GDP總量約29兆人民幣,成長8%=2.3兆,一季要多6000億.1~5月固定資產投資多1.4兆,光這部份可貢獻的GDP成長就有+11.6%.而GDP只有+7%.簡單算一算,假如Q1 GDP可信,其它領域的衰退就有-5%以上(包含傳說中大力振興經濟的擴大內需).</strong><br /><br />這樣美麗的經濟成長代價是國有企業向國有銀行借貸5兆人民幣大買房地產.而且房產價格並沒有被拉上去.那賣方可能是地方政府.雖然所有資金都是左手換右手.但只要這中間有1%的價格膨脹與貪污.銀行體系的呆帳就會增加5000億人民幣!整個過程民間企業受惠程度趨近於0.<br /><br />由於中國是用國家的力量在掌控經濟.中國經濟成長目標達成率過去20年是100%.我們只知道,當股市再度開始反應真實時,又是一段慘烈過程,但時機,何時開始反應,就極難猜測了.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/12/blog-post_15.html">中國經濟最大絕境:人民幣不得貶值 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-5507026951619908538?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-70267190290149868882009-06-10T23:08:00.000-07:002009-06-11T00:05:25.976-07:00<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SjCgxathsdI/AAAAAAAABIA/O4yHUKnEbeI/s1600-h/Kyoto+Protocol.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 236px; height: 320px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SjCgxathsdI/AAAAAAAABIA/O4yHUKnEbeI/s320/Kyoto+Protocol.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5345949528533086674" /></a><br /><a href="http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?storyid=001026551"><strong>欧盟敦促中国“全面参与”减排 </strong></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?storyid=001026941">中美减排谈判未获进展 </a> FT-chinese<br /><br />"中国已加大了赌注，要求富裕国家今后承诺，到2020年把温室气体排放量在1990年水平基础上削减40%（这是北京多年要求的减排区间的上端），并拿出相当于年度经济产出总值的0.5%至1%，帮助包括中国在内的较贫穷国家承担碳排放削减计划。"...<br /><br /><strong>美國人看到這樣的要求,要能不起反感的可能很少吧.談到全球經濟發言權,中國就是最富有,隨時將取代美國的巨人.談到責任,瞬間變成"較貧窮國家"??</strong><br /><br /><br />距離年底的哥本哈根氣候會議剩下半年,但是至今都沒有好消息.上一次京都議定書簽署時,被視為破壞地球最大的壞人就是美國(詳細的爭議與歷史請看wiki的資料:<a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%E9%83%BD%E8%AE%AE%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%A6">京都議定書</a>)黑臉由布希擔當.但經過的政權輪替,新上台的歐巴馬政府已經表態全力支持氣候協議.<strong>於是.這次會議最可能的壞蛋,將由中國擔任主角.</strong><br /><br />當年京都議定書最大的爭論點在於:誰該為了減少二氧化碳而付出金錢與經濟成長作代價?很不幸的.2008年的金融海嘯讓這個爭議陷入幾乎無解的狀態.因為全球所有人都更加在意經濟成長.在這樣的背景下,<strong>歐美最大的轉變是:花錢補貼發展中國家,或者低競爭力的剛起步新科技(如太陽能)不再是主軸.而是透過法規強制要求,讓成熟的節能科技取得更大的經濟優勢.(比如說歐洲的風力發電,美日的混合動力車).藉由技術的優勢.還可進一步搶佔其它國家的市場.</strong><br /><br />在"減碳"這個冠冕堂皇的理由下,對不遵守減碳的國家徵收懲罰性關稅,將會是談判破裂後,最符合歐美利益,與歐美輿論想法的結果.但這個氣候協議的勝利.就是貿易保護主義的勝利.也會是全球經濟的重大挫敗.<br /><br />1930年的<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/03/1930.html">斯穆特,霍利(Smoot,Hawley)法案</a>,被視為大蕭條中最蠢的決策.<br /><br />當然,另一個比較溫合的發展就是:再度簽署宣誓性,毫無約束力的聲明,大家再混十年,看到底會怎樣....<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/blog-post_11.html">驚人的發展:油電混合科技不再是鋰電池獨霸! </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-7026719029014986888?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-19837684263744948802009-06-08T00:53:00.000-07:002009-06-08T01:19:38.720-07:00<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SizECerVOBI/AAAAAAAABH4/Br9-JEzPZqs/s1600-h/europevote.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 292px; height: 219px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SizECerVOBI/AAAAAAAABH4/Br9-JEzPZqs/s320/europevote.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5344862404655527954" /></a>政治與金融一樣都是群眾決策的結果.兩者一樣有趣.經常挑戰人們的直線思考.<br /><br /><strong><a href="http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20090608/beu122243.asp?source=whatnews2">歐洲各國左翼政黨影響力下降</a></strong> WSJ<br /><br />2008年的金融海嘯,被視為資本主義重大的挫敗,所有人把矛頭指向過度自由的市場機制,與缺乏監管的金融體系.至今最佳的解決之道就是國家力量介入.整個發展可以說是社會主義的完全勝利.<br /><br /><strong>但人民的選舉結果竟然相反.長期支持社會主義的左派政黨被人秉棄,過去擁抱自由經濟的黨派受到全歐洲人的歡迎.這到底是怎麼一回事??</strong><br /><br />政治觀察家指出,因為右派提出了許多社會主義的制度.讓純粹的左派失去特色.選民的決策完全沒有歷史情感.最新的變革產生最大的影響.金融市場也是如此.消息只要一曝光,經過輿論討論.對未來行情的影響力就會等比級數的衰減.<br /><br /><strong>正因如此.政治與金融投資都是一場無止境的資訊戰.唯有時時保持敏銳度,才能暫時處於領先地位.不論先前累積多少聲望與成功經驗,一旦鬆懈.下場就是失敗.共勉之!</strong><br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/03/blog-post_16.html">市場的力量與民主的價值. </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-1983768426374494880?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-11881308856089384342009-06-04T00:48:00.000-07:002009-06-04T00:49:35.988-07:00投資人越來越擔心通膨,但似乎大家又把之前的判斷法則忘光了.以下是幾個重要的判斷依據:<br /><br /><strong>1.通膨的指標是CPI,Fed關心的是核心通膨(扣除波動極大的食品與能源)</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sid2GYiAhqI/AAAAAAAABHw/7QngBwc7C_A/s1600-h/yoycpi.gif"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sid2GYiAhqI/AAAAAAAABHw/7QngBwc7C_A/s400/yoycpi.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5343369334934767266" /></a><br /><br />FED認定最適合的通膨大約是2%,同時容許約+-0.5%的波動.<br /><br />以此看來.目前非常適宜.足以推動經濟發展,又不會過熱.<br /><br /><strong>2.從Tip債券利差作判斷:</strong><br /><br />CPI的變化每個月才會知道一次.Tip債則是每天都有報價.因為Tip會補償通膨造成的購買力損失.因此Tip殖利率不包含通貨膨脹率.<br /><br /><strong>Tip殖利率-10年債(TY)殖利率=市場認定的通貨膨脹率.</strong><br /><br />報價請看Bloomberg:<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html</a><br /><br />2009/6/3日利差=3.57%-1.65%=1.92% 目前無通膨問題.過去利差,在2007年與2008年曾經高到2.6%.當時就會有各種傳言表示FED可能升息抗通膨.同時眾多金融商品也會對通膨變化極敏感.<br /><br /><strong>3.通膨與FED利率決策經驗法則:</strong><br /><br />歷史經驗統計值:<br />聯邦基金利率＝8.5％+1.4×（核心通貨膨脹率－失業率)<br /><br />目前算起來利率應該等於8.5%+1.4*(1.9%-9%)=-1.5% 升息機率應該是0<br /><br /><strong>在這些數據尚未出現明顯變化前.商品,能源將不易反應通膨的效應.投資股市會優於投資商品.</strong><br /><br />PS:Tip有包裝成ETF發行,不過去年金融海嘯經驗顯示,Tip抵抗通膨的代價,就是失去債券與股市逆相關的保護效果!<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/01/blog-post_1749.html">從殖利率曲線,TIP利差,泰德價差,NOB spread判斷行情 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-1188130885608938434?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-68981401864190434412009-06-03T00:08:00.000-07:002009-06-03T00:15:42.844-07:00<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__June___How_Do_1243961632658.html">FXCM資料</a> <---原始檔<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SiYiYH98R5I/AAAAAAAABHo/wxSw_7iAk7M/s1600-h/correlation2009May.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 128px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SiYiYH98R5I/AAAAAAAABHo/wxSw_7iAk7M/s400/correlation2009May.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342995805772728210" /></a><br /><br /><strong>主要行情摘要:<br /><br />1.美股緩慢向上. <br />2.美國銀行壓力測試+汽車業破產. <br />3.瑞郎與歐元相關性接近歷史高點. <br />4.所有貨幣與歐元相關性急增.暗示美元貶值. </strong><br /><br />上個月相關係數資料:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/4fx-correlations-apr-2009.html">4月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (Apr 2009) </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-6898140186419043441?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-51233048813198847162009-05-22T02:15:00.000-07:002009-05-22T02:43:02.748-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShZhp4lUJiI/AAAAAAAABHY/AiuQBGi4XJQ/s1600-h/wii.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 298px; height: 320px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShZhp4lUJiI/AAAAAAAABHY/AiuQBGi4XJQ/s320/wii.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338561780485727778" /></a><br />Nintendo:任天堂(Nasdaq代號NTDOY,日股代號:7974)<br /><br />相關報導:<br /><a href="http://ceo.icxo.com/htmlnews/2007/06/08/1141816_0.htm">岩田聪:任天堂最成功;叛逆的总裁</a><br /><a href="http://www.pcgames.com.cn/news/cyda/guoji/0709/944134.html">岩田聪——任天堂新任总裁</a><br /><br />從巴菲特的傳記中我深刻的體會到長期投資的本質,不是投資績優公司,或前景亮麗的產業.而是對人的投資!Wii所創造的銷量,拓展電玩的消費年齡層,令人眼睛一亮的創新等等就不再贅述.大家都有深刻的印象.<strong>不過最令人感到驚奇的,還是Wii現任總裁的能力!</strong><br /><br />在wii問世之前,任天堂是電視遊樂器的創始者.整個企業是一家極為成功的家族企業.2000年,岩田聰才被任天堂老總挖角過來.之前是下游戲軟體商的程式工程師.2002年就被指任為下任總裁.在保守的日本社會已經是難得一見.而岩田聰作的第一件事就是推翻任天堂的招牌.重新設計遊戲把手.而當年其它兩大巨頭.Sony的 PS3,微軟的Xbox角力的重點都在如何透過3D作出更精緻擬真,更流暢的畫面.每一個決策都會所有遊戲業者感到懷疑,但岩田聰還是完成了它的目標.整個開發時間一點也沒延宕.<br /><br /><strong>"遊戲以娛樂為出發點",</strong>10歲以下的小孩都知道有趣才是最重要的.但成人會忘記.這種看透科技產品本質的能力.當今世上最強的大概就是蘋果的Steve Jobs.2000年時,台灣電子公司早就開發出各種小巧精緻的mp3播放器.一個才3000元台幣.功能齊全.相比較之下,Apple的ipod,造型像磚塊,價格是5倍,容量也不大.沒想到最後被殲滅的是台灣,亞洲的產品.原因是想聽音樂的人要的不是100個功能.而是"方便".岩田聰比喬布斯年輕8歲,而且身體健康.<br /><br />這應該只是任天堂一個全新的起點.電視游樂器還沒攻佔線上游戲,也還沒攻佔手機.未來競爭的舞台廣大.Jobs 1997年回任蘋果至今,Apple的股價大概漲了50倍.而Nintendo的股價因金融海嘯,回到Wii問世時股價2倍的位置.這不就是傳說中逢低買進好股的絕佳時機嗎?<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShZsDQu7tBI/AAAAAAAABHg/AKW3b_v6vE0/s1600-h/ni.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 177px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShZsDQu7tBI/AAAAAAAABHg/AKW3b_v6vE0/s400/ni.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338573211581527058" /></a><br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/07/atvi.html">你家小孩沉迷網路遊戲嗎?投資ATVI心情會好很多! </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-5123304881319884716?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-22990250283138487962009-05-17T23:07:00.000-07:002009-05-17T23:21:37.952-07:00<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShD8jwR9kxI/AAAAAAAABHQ/N4SGceENaOQ/s1600-h/won.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 236px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ShD8jwR9kxI/AAAAAAAABHQ/N4SGceENaOQ/s320/won.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5337043249619899154" /></a><br />這篇道瓊社的新聞可以看出大概:<br /><br />首爾（道瓊斯）--韓國央行(Bank of Korea)週一稱﹐由於國內外匯流動狀況已得到改善﹐該行計劃向當地銀行提供25億美元資金﹐從而幫助銀行延展即將於週四到期的40億美元貸款中的一部分。<br /><strong>韓國央行計劃於週二通過拍賣84天期外匯掉期向國內銀行提供25億美元資金﹐這筆資金將動用其與美國達成的貨幣互換協議的額度。</strong><br />最低投標利率為0.6971%。<br /> <br />如果這筆資金悉數發放﹐那麼韓國央行與美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱Fed)於去年10月底達成的300億美元貨幣互換額度中已有125億美元被發放。<br />此外﹐韓國央行表示﹐已決定對此前動用該行儲備向當地銀行投放的20億美元貸款不予延期。這筆貸款將於週四到期。<br />~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br />簡單講.之前韓國一狗票的外債.現在國外主要商銀放貸意願仍然很低.從2008 Q3之後,韓國央行以外匯存底當作是展延貸款的資金來源.而目前已變成由FED透過貨幣互換協議額度來支應.也就是說去年FED大規模與全球其他央行簽定類似合約.除了避免新興市場國家違約,還順便消滅了美國公債的潛在賣壓.<br /><br />在這樣的架構下.新興市場債務問題應該2009年都不會是問題.剩下的疑慮將是生產過剩與通膨.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/07/blog-post_23.html">韓國二次金融危機就差半步了(上) </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/07/blog-post_9721.html">韓國二次金融危機就差半步了(下) </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-2299025028313848796?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-90698954365993462992009-05-11T00:24:00.000-07:002009-05-11T00:58:18.877-07:00<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfT314S8KI/AAAAAAAABG4/stePkvrXSoA/s1600-h/01_honda_insight.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfT314S8KI/AAAAAAAABG4/stePkvrXSoA/s320/01_honda_insight.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334465239953109154" /></a><br /><a href="http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?fi=\NEWSBASE\20090511\WEB1757&cls=index1_headline">本田新油電混合車Insight站上4月日本銷售冠軍 與豐田爭天下 </a><br /><br />此輛 Insight 主打項目是售價可親，價格從 189 萬日元 (19190 美元)起跳，Honda 的超小型汽車 Fit 位居其後。<br /><br />Honda到底怎麼辦到的,讓油電車進入平民化時代.<strong>當價格落入2萬美元以內,很可能迅速佔領整個市場.因為車主永遠最關心的就是價格!</strong>能夠用幾乎是5折的價格賣油電車.就是因為它跳脫傳統.改採用鉛電池(實在想不到它到底如何辦到的)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.madeinchn.cn/thread-10-34454-1-1.htm">人與車科技展】古河電池展出電容器一體型鉛充電電池，配備在本田“Insight”上成功行駛16萬km</a><br /><br />在美股ADR,Honda(HMC)也展現比Toyota更強的走勢.現在已幾乎回到一年前的價格.完全無視於日本股市的疲弱與汽車業的慘況.<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfWNbnzKuI/AAAAAAAABHA/iIlNxrpWrf4/s1600-h/hmc.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 311px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfWNbnzKuI/AAAAAAAABHA/iIlNxrpWrf4/s400/hmc.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334467809884973794" /></a><br /><br />關鍵零組件製造商古河電池(日股代號:6937)也是多頭蓄勢待發<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfW0lSSTnI/AAAAAAAABHI/7Z6rqznljwk/s1600-h/6937.gif"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgfW0lSSTnI/AAAAAAAABHI/7Z6rqznljwk/s400/6937.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334468482493992562" /></a><br /><br />日本的電池科技非常領先.在今年底應對全球暖化的"哥本哈根協議"(替代京都議定書)成為全球新聞焦點時.這族群有可能受到追捧.抗暖化的最大受惠者,不是太陽能,而是汽車業的存活者!<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/12/blog-post.html">金融海嘯後,重新檢視替代能源(綠能)產業的機會 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-9069895436599346299?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-5457241915116938642009-05-10T19:20:00.000-07:002009-05-10T19:21:27.710-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUjJw51WeI/AAAAAAAABGI/sCc-z2LYF4o/s1600-h/jobless-mac.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 284px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUjJw51WeI/AAAAAAAABGI/sCc-z2LYF4o/s320/jobless-mac.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333707984343488994" /></a>非農就業數據的重要性有在投資美股與外匯的人應該都印象深刻.之前也寫過文章討論過:<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/04/blog-post_04.html">迎接資金海嘯!(有效數據篇) </a>,2008年也實戰運用過:<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/04/blog-post_04.html">慘,美股出現致命性下跌</a>.這就是我總是期待非農的好轉能帶來關鍵性大漲的主因.<br /><br />這次的非農公佈:前值-66.3萬(這次把前值修正為-69.9萬).預估值-60萬,公佈實際值-53.9萬.從2008年後非農老是大幅修正前值的作法實在是個巨大的困擾.唉.這部份先不管..若看這次細目就會發現若不計算政府雇人.華爾街的分析師們預期的是正確的(ADP還是不準).<strong>也就是說非農是符合預期.而非大幅好轉.</strong><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUlkvQ-9HI/AAAAAAAABGQ/e43YK7Zj4RI/s1600-h/nonfarm.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUlkvQ-9HI/AAAAAAAABGQ/e43YK7Zj4RI/s400/nonfarm.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333710646783439986" /></a><br /><br />不過請注意.1933年羅斯福採用凱因斯學派的主張.政府大量雇佣,找一堆人去種樹除草作沒產值的事,一樣把經濟與股市逆轉拉上來.而非農數據歷史經驗經常是V型反轉.現在看圖.也是如此(因為把前幾個月修正得更低...).之後花4個月非農就翻正機率還是不小,別忘了澳洲與加拿大這個月都是就業直接變成增加...<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUmoJgmK-I/AAAAAAAABGY/rw86cxDbaYI/s1600-h/nonfarm.gif"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUmoJgmK-I/AAAAAAAABGY/rw86cxDbaYI/s400/nonfarm.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333711804879481826" /></a><br /><br /><strong>再來看一下市場的即時反應:</strong><br /><br />道瓊期指1分鐘K線圖:(美國時間7:30公佈)<br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUovNIr_EI/AAAAAAAABGg/9wF1WtgygW0/s1600-h/dj.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 144px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUovNIr_EI/AAAAAAAABGg/9wF1WtgygW0/s400/dj.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333714125135281218" /></a><br /><br />公佈時略為向下,但反應不大.這是略為不如預期的反應.市場找不到對應的方向.之後多空緩慢嘗試推動行情.<br /><br />再看10年債1min K線圖:<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUqep5qynI/AAAAAAAABGo/J84iCiC5n1M/s1600-h/ty.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 176px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUqep5qynI/AAAAAAAABGo/J84iCiC5n1M/s400/ty.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333716039822396018" /></a><br />這張圖很清楚的顯示,市場把非農的結果解讀為利空.先前的預期也是偏空的較多.而行情之後的反應是"利空不跌"<br /><br />我認為美股要大漲需要真正的利多.由此判斷非農並沒有達成預期的目標.但市場的局勢與過去一個月相同.行情走勢的強度領先市場.輿論仍是相對悲觀.這樣的狀況持續緩漲機率較高.等出現下一個事件時,才有機會扭轉投資人心中真正的多空感覺,轉為大漲.到時才算漲勢後半段,才能判斷是回升還是反彈末端.<br /><br />之前的文章有提到.目前的走勢有可能類似1974.真相是通膨,而非經濟復甦.只要有通膨.經濟數據會亮麗到非常刺眼.請參考:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-post_27.html">經濟蕭條與資本市場崩潰的唯一解決方案 </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/blog-post.html">第一次石油危機年代美國經濟發展與美元貶值 </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/gdp.html">美國GDP復甦有多容易?我算給你看! </a><br /><br />看一下美國GDP平減指數:<br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUu3-P7NGI/AAAAAAAABGw/iNLeOAZBSvs/s1600-h/fredgraph.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUu3-P7NGI/AAAAAAAABGw/iNLeOAZBSvs/s400/fredgraph.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333720872827696226" /></a><br /><br />扣除通縮效應.美國的GDP是2%.也就是說價格下跌的通縮效應貢獻了GDP-7%以上.1月油價40元.現在是58,漲幅45%,美元指數回貶大約6%.這些很快就會反應到經濟數據上.只要通膨這個主軸不變.那我對美股的看法就不致於有太大的改變.目前對事件的判斷只是在找尋引爆漲勢的因子.現在還看不到多空轉折的關鍵何時會出現.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/3.html">運用訊息解讀作投資的要領--實戰3 </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/2.html">運用訊息解讀作投資的要領--實戰2 </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/1.html">運用訊息解讀作投資的要領--實戰1 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-545724191511693864?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-88414861299202129302009-05-08T22:43:00.000-07:002009-05-08T23:22:57.751-07:00<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUY7dZNZjI/AAAAAAAABFg/Ece8arb4aCs/s1600-h/the_answer.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUY7dZNZjI/AAAAAAAABFg/Ece8arb4aCs/s320/the_answer.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333696743471932978" /></a><strong>Step5:辨別事件發生後的真正效果:</strong><br /><br />老規矩.訊息發生後產生的即時行情最有參考價值.時間過越久,就越容易受到各種專家評論的污染.我們就越不容易看到真實.<strong>此外永遠要記得:時間會不斷的向前推進.無論再怎麼重大的事件發生後,它就變成已知.市場會逐步加重對未來未知的關心程度,已知的事件效果會遞減.</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/Content.htm?DocumentId=117226">ECB激戰後,歐元繼續盤整?? </a> ECB記者會特里謝提到1%的利率是適宜的(這句是利多,因為可能停止降息),但無法確認是否就是最低水準.(這句是利空).同時宣佈非常態措施購買擔保債券(等同買銀行資產抵押債券).而沒有買公債.這是利多!因為買公債才是貨幣融通.ECB記者會前後的短期走勢也支持這樣的看法.<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUbnSe7C9I/AAAAAAAABFo/scHvmaA4_54/s1600-h/ecb.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUbnSe7C9I/AAAAAAAABFo/scHvmaA4_54/s400/ecb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333699695480605650" /></a><br /><br />先前消息市場預期是利空.公佈出來後空方大失所望.那就應該是傳說中的"利空出盡".該補漲.但實際並非如此.這時有2種可能:a.我的判斷有遺漏.猜錯了.b.市場因某種原因延後反應.隔天就是非農.而且市場對訊息的反應有可能持續48小時.因此再多看一兩天.局勢的發展與預期相同.行情受到非農的壓抑.這也間接證實了市場對非農的擔憂(美元的強勢來自於風險規避的需求)<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUc8r4SHpI/AAAAAAAABFw/baTL6o0JBbg/s1600-h/ec.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 221px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUc8r4SHpI/AAAAAAAABFw/baTL6o0JBbg/s400/ec.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333701162586742418" /></a><br /><br />同樣的銀行壓力測試產生的結果也是利空出盡.受到非農影響.週五非農公佈後持續擴大漲幅.<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUeUBgl1YI/AAAAAAAABF4/yMJxxph4XuY/s1600-h/us.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 323px; height: 295px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUeUBgl1YI/AAAAAAAABF4/yMJxxph4XuY/s400/us.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333702663041570178" /></a><br /><br />此外從<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND">TED spread </a>也可以看到壓力測試產生的真正結果(許多跨市場的行情因為不包含投資人的情緒,更能反應真實)<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUfacziu2I/AAAAAAAABGA/HKAVjyFGczk/s1600-h/ted.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 245px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUfacziu2I/AAAAAAAABGA/HKAVjyFGczk/s400/ted.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333703872959658850" /></a><br /><br />TED spread 等同是商業銀行短期借貸上與美國國家信用的的風險貼水.現在幾乎已經回到2007年貝爾斯登兩檔對沖基金出事後的最低水準.這表示壓力測試真的有效!銀行間借貸恢復中.<br /><br />解決這兩個事件後.以此為基礎,再來詳細解讀5/8日非農公佈的真正效應...to be contunie....<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/2.html">運用訊息解讀作投資的要領--實戰2 </a><br /><a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/Content.htm?DocumentId=116009">美股可能位於主升段的起點</a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-8841486129920212930?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-44863749075984076052009-05-08T21:51:00.000-07:002009-05-08T22:44:21.488-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUMebCj_DI/AAAAAAAABFA/V2UgUfzUTTQ/s1600-h/10097435.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 262px; height: 320px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUMebCj_DI/AAAAAAAABFA/V2UgUfzUTTQ/s320/10097435.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333683050484333618" /></a><strong>Step4:市場預期的判別:</strong><br /><br />判斷市場預期必需大量閱讀媒體評論,搭配觀察行情.記得一個原則:所有專家的評論=一般散戶的看法=輿論!只不過專家有顯赫的頭銜,會賣弄更多專有名詞罷了.(請看:<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post.html">金融海嘯第二波只存在於媒體的幻想中</a>).我們對市場預期的判斷永遠是無法證實的猜測.這也是我們對未來行情判斷時,錯誤與失敗率的來源之一.<br /><br />a.這次銀行的壓力測試.市場的評論是大多偏空,認為銀行的體質不佳(這延續了08年金融海嘯後的一貫看法).美國銀行BAC吞了美林這個毒蘋果後一直被市場看衰.它的走勢具有參考價值:<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUPSPWYT_I/AAAAAAAABFI/UiVHmIPxMeA/s1600-h/bac.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 274px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUPSPWYT_I/AAAAAAAABFI/UiVHmIPxMeA/s400/bac.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333686139722682354" /></a><br />4月中旬後傳出銀行要作壓力測試.24日公布細節,28日美國各大財經媒體報導要增資百億以上.這段期間走勢都是偏空.證實我們從媒體所觀察到的市場預期的確是空不是多.<br /><br />b.ECB會議對歐元產生的市場預期是空也很容易判斷:看EUR/GBP走勢最清楚.<br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUSs4bhgCI/AAAAAAAABFQ/ziP2-aKZQuk/s1600-h/ec.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUSs4bhgCI/AAAAAAAABFQ/ziP2-aKZQuk/s400/ec.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333689895961591842" /></a>美元指數已經在走貶,但EUR/GBP明顯受壓抑.這表示市場擔憂ECB可能的寬鬆量化細節.<br /><br />c.美國就業狀況在5/5日之前也是清一色悲觀.專家一再的提醒美國經濟有多麼脆弱.但是6日的ADP就業預估出現轉向.<br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUTdC8FEWI/AAAAAAAABFY/XitfjHqCJBE/s1600-h/sp.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 182px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUTdC8FEWI/AAAAAAAABFY/XitfjHqCJBE/s400/sp.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333690723416215906" /></a><br /><br />ADP預估-49.1遠優於上個月公佈後,美股就突破一個月之前的盤整.同時債市套息也出現樂觀反應.週四美股拉回.週四的行情包含對壓力測試,ECB會議的結果,同時也在反應對非農的預期.到底開高走低的原因是哪一個,就很容易出現不同的說法.首先ADP就業預估準確度一直不高,週五非農才是真正的重點.市場情緒悲觀半年後要在2天內轉為100%樂觀機率極低.週四收盤美股類股的漲跌.金融上漲,主跌科技股.那行情的主軸就不該是壓力測試的結果.而是對非農的預期讓投資人傾向在數據前平倉觀望(數據前想平倉當然是預期悲觀)<br /><br /><strong>當訊息本質多空與市場預期一致性越高時.訊息真實結果公佈後若有差異那行情反應就會越大.</strong><br /><br />More.....<br /><br />前篇:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/05/1.html">運用訊息解讀作投資的要領--實戰1 </a><br /><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-4486374907598407605?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-41701416039951115462009-05-08T21:14:00.000-07:002009-05-08T21:48:14.168-07:00<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUH4SogtNI/AAAAAAAABE4/Yo6LCJXNPDo/s1600-h/news.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgUH4SogtNI/AAAAAAAABE4/Yo6LCJXNPDo/s320/news.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5333677997346043090" /></a><br />很多投資人喜愛用"反市場心理","利空出盡","利多出貨"這類的名詞來解讀市場脈動,但是作分析時連市場心理到底是樂觀還是悲觀,消息是利多還是利空都搞不清楚.當然也得不到有效的判斷.之後得出一個很奇怪的結論:"看報紙作投資會被坑殺"."基本分析跟本沒用"...大部份投資人只是把訊息拿來合理化自己主觀多空看法,當然輸多贏少.<br /><br />剛好近期有許多事件.可以拿來當作實戰範例.以下就是"如何看報紙做股票"的詳細的步奏解釋:<br /><br /><strong>Step1:訊息的取得:</strong><br /><br /> 很多重要的訊息其實都可以早知道.只要看各大財經媒體的金融行事曆,閱讀一下財經頭條就可以獲得八九成的訊息.當然還是會有一些意外(這部份經常是事故或特殊政治事件,不在本篇討論範圍).<br /><br />近期的事件請參考:<a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/Content.htm?DocumentId=114646">本週是謠言週??</a>.4月底有美國汽車業破產案,銀行壓力測試(後來延到5月初),豬流感.5月初有ECB會議,美國就業報告.<br /><br /><strong>Step2:訊息的重要性分辨:</strong><br /><br />豬流感這個非經濟事件的判斷是幼稚園等級.懶得講.隔天就全部澄清.汽車業破產已經從去年11月被市場一談再談,被炒爛的訊息影響力會幾乎等於0.因為市場早以作出反應.剩下的3個訊息重要性就必需對經濟有長期觀察比較能分辨.以股債市來講.重要性排序應該是"非農>壓力測試>ECB會議".匯市是"ECB>非農>壓力測試"(以上包含主觀判斷).公佈的順序是"壓力測試,ECB,非農"<strong>隨著時間向前推進.未知的重要性永遠大於已知.</strong><br /><br /><strong>Step3:訊息本質多空解讀:</strong><br /><br />大部份基本面的訊息都會有絕對的多空方向.只要略懂總經與基本邏輯就能分辨.壓力測試的本質就是信用評等.請參考"<a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/Content.htm?DocumentId=114003">美國銀行業壓力測試VS大蕭條年代的緊急銀行法</a>".評等好就是多,不好就是空.不好的要增資更是絕對的利空.因為老股必定是折價發行.ECB會議結果,降息,實行寬鬆量化就是空,停止就是多.非農.優於分析師預期,優於上個月是多,較差是空.<br /><br /><strong>訊息本質的判斷不等於行情的方向.而是我們拿來與市場預期以及真實結果比較的基礎.</strong><br /><br />To be continue.....<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/blog-post_19.html">投資分析如何跳脫從眾的致命陷阱? </a><br /><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-4170141603995111546?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-12310056253872154372009-05-06T23:48:00.000-07:002009-05-06T23:55:12.702-07:00<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__May___How_Do_1241196771559.html">FXCM原始資料</a> <---點此<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgKFNU_r-0I/AAAAAAAABEw/P9vUZfziP8w/s1600-h/corre4.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 126px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SgKFNU_r-0I/AAAAAAAABEw/P9vUZfziP8w/s400/corre4.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332971372780714818" /></a><br /><br /><strong>主要行情摘要:<br /><br />1.美股持續大漲 <br />2.經濟數據好轉.市場氣氛轉樂觀 <br />3.日元相關性再度全面轉負.但這次反應的是對風險追逐的積極性</strong><br /><br />上個月相關係數資料:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/04/3fx-correlations-mar-2009.html">3月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (Mar 2009) </a> <br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-1231005625387215437?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-80961931980338805742009-05-04T00:44:00.001-07:002009-05-04T01:31:19.971-07:00<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sf6llszMEiI/AAAAAAAABEo/fFTGHb2dErE/s1600-h/oiletf.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 179px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sf6llszMEiI/AAAAAAAABEo/fFTGHb2dErE/s400/oiletf.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331881075952849442" /></a><br />套利原理:2009年初時USO因遠近月份價差過大而吃了大虧.同樣的情形現在又重演了.既然如此.做多會吃虧,做空就會有利.(目前價差消失.之後可能再出現)<br /><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post_12.html">油價近期可能大漲 </a> 2009/4<br /><br /><a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/YesFX/Content.htm?DocumentId=113782">油價走勢短期難以上漲</a> 2009/2<br /><br />因此可行的套利是(選擇SCO是因為這支放空型交易量大,但它是兩倍槓桿)<br /><br /><strong>方案1:(兩者都放空可能還可賺到時間價值..not sure)</strong>放空USO 200股 +放空SCO 100股 USO 4/30價格USO=29.62元. SCO 29.57元.剛好差不多.<br /><br /><strong>方案2:(USL是12個月油價平均,因此受價差影響較小)</strong>放空USO 100股+做多 USL 100股 4/30價格 USO=29.62元 USL=30.93元<br /><br />時間到7月底(8月合約結倉9月變成新倉).到時才知道這樣的套利到底可不可行.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/07/crack-spread.html">從裂解價差(Crack spread)判斷原油價格走勢 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-8096193198033880574?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-22432879944648106822009-04-26T23:35:00.000-07:002009-04-26T23:49:12.437-07:00<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SfVTyJijNrI/AAAAAAAABEY/kdqjqD9mG3c/s1600-h/caddollar.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 200px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SfVTyJijNrI/AAAAAAAABEY/kdqjqD9mG3c/s200/caddollar.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329257855082247858" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/cad_fundamentals/Canadian_Dollar___Crude_Oil_1240612896056.html">Canadian Dollar - Crude Oil Correlation Hits 20+ Year Highs</a><br /><br />FXCM這條新聞真是引人注目!看了一下線圖.現在的相關性真是高得驚人!以前加幣與油價的相關性只有在週線上能體會,而且還會落後.現在已經高到4小時線上幾乎完全對稱.<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SfVUHosUcJI/AAAAAAAABEg/fO-o_sFqfns/s1600-h/cad.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SfVUHosUcJI/AAAAAAAABEg/fO-o_sFqfns/s400/cad.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329258224221974674" /></a><br /><br />可惜這樣的資訊操作價值不高,油價的走勢更難猜..自從主要國家利率接近0之後.匯市的判斷難以找到較好的基本面方法.過去次要的判斷因子是否會因利率不變而成為主導匯市的主軸.值得持續追蹤.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/04/3fx-correlations-mar-2009.html">3月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (Mar 2009) </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-2243287994464810682?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-2364513175760927242009-04-04T19:42:00.000-07:002009-04-05T20:29:51.431-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhBDmWX7HI/AAAAAAAABD4/QJwa3rrRQbg/s1600-h/HawaiiSurf_wideweb__470x313,0.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhBDmWX7HI/AAAAAAAABD4/QJwa3rrRQbg/s320/HawaiiSurf_wideweb__470x313,0.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321074489828043890" /></a><br />前一篇約略談到一些對行情判段毫無幫助的經濟數據(但經濟學課本都很重視,原因不明).那有用的到底有哪些??我們可以從過去市場重視,往往激烈反應的數據找出些規則.<br /><br /><strong>1.非農就業數字:</strong>過去資料已經明確顯示.非農比失業率敏感,市場對非農關注度也遠高於失業率.那我們就把焦點集中在非農.<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sdga94_3liI/AAAAAAAABDg/9H0e6UlJ92I/s1600-h/PAYEMS_Max_630_378.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sdga94_3liI/AAAAAAAABDg/9H0e6UlJ92I/s400/PAYEMS_Max_630_378.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321032610312853026" /></a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS?cid=11">資料原始連結</a>View data可以看到數據.美股請看<a href="http://www.djindexes.com/DJIA110/learning-center/">DJ index</a><br /><br />1981~82年的衰退與銀行倒閉潮,非農從1981年8月轉負值,DJ已經離高點約13%,但如果注意到當年5月非農驟降到+1萬人,還是可能在離高點2%處掌握轉折點.2001年3月非農轉負,2008年1月(實務上有抓到!請看:<a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/yesfx/Content.htm?DocumentId=25552">慘,美股出現致命性下跌</a>).簡單講.非農大減轉負簡直是空頭的最愛!(下次要等好久)<br /><br />1982年非農三個負值的高峰是1,4,7月,7月是股市最低點.(但反複很多次.不易判斷).1983年1月非農一轉正就是+22萬.而且股市已經漲34%創歷史新高.2002年的狀況.失業最高峰值是2001年10月.當時有911事件造成大幅反彈.但之後還有兩個低點.2002年10月和2003年4月.當時伴隨Worldcom案,恩龍案,Sars事件.這部份非農對低點的判斷勝率就不如想像中高.<br /><br /><strong>2.貨幣基金總量:</strong>這是市場資訊.對這數據的敏感度我寄予厚望.<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdgzECJUVFI/AAAAAAAABDw/r8vAbAt8wLQ/s1600-h/WIMFSL_Max_630_378.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdgzECJUVFI/AAAAAAAABDw/r8vAbAt8wLQ/s400/WIMFSL_Max_630_378.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321059104126686290" /></a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WIMFSL?cid=28">資料連結</a><--here<br /><br />貨幣基金是市場資金的避風港,也是固定收益的重要組成.因此上升是常態.無法對風險產生任何預警.1982年低點時,貨幣基金數量反而是暴增.但加計一般儲蓄(<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PMSAVE?cid=112">Personal saving</a>).儲蓄金額在1982年1,4,7月都是驟減.好處在於.儲蓄金額在股市起漲前就開始橫盤做頭.真正起漲後一路下降.<br /><br />90年後儲蓄下降.貨幣基金變成主角.2001年9月後走出短期衰退,就業好轉,但貨幣基金8月就開始持平下降.03年的低點也是如此.<br /><br />整體而言.貨幣基金減少與股市好轉有相當的關聯,而且是週資料.即時性夠.但雜訊太多.若與失業率搭配觀察.或許會不錯.<strong>也就是當非農可能是峰值時+貨幣基金連續減少.就是猜測資金狂潮將席捲市場的好時機.</strong><br /><br />PS:全球基金資金流動可以查:<a href="http://www.ici.org/stats/latest/index.html">ICI.ORG</a>的網站,下篇再詳細介紹<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/03/blog-post.html">資金避風港真能避風嗎? </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post.html">金融海嘯第二波只存在於媒體的幻想中 </a><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-post_27.html">經濟蕭條與資本市場崩潰的唯一解決方案</a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-236451317576092724?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-66039190256131879572009-04-04T18:53:00.000-07:002009-04-05T17:44:38.643-07:00<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhtclZp1MI/AAAAAAAABEI/dBi377SlOQg/s1600-h/48821_1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhtclZp1MI/AAAAAAAABEI/dBi377SlOQg/s320/48821_1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321123297581716674" /></a><br />風水輪流轉,二次金融海嘯才是真正的無稽之談,而目前市場最擔心的有毒資產變成美元現金!經濟數據逐步翻轉,股市展現無敵的氣勢.這是否是等待已久的資金大海嘯,有待查證.<br /><br />我認為可以期待的是,由於對通膨的恐懼,所帶來的投資熱潮.至於最後是否能轉化為良性經濟成長.未來再判斷即可.<br /><br /><strong>1.等待商業借貸恢復無助於投資.</strong>(過去經驗顯示,借貸會在股市上漲1~2年後才回升.)<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdgTKkYqh_I/AAAAAAAABDY/-Luukpggzv8/s1600-h/BUSLOANS_Max_630_378.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdgTKkYqh_I/AAAAAAAABDY/-Luukpggzv8/s400/BUSLOANS_Max_630_378.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321024032024987634" /></a><br />資料來源:<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BUSLOANS?cid=100">St Louis Fed</a><br /><br /><strong>2.GDP:</strong>統計上極度緩慢,跟本不用理會.但值得注意的是.St. Louis FED 把2008年的大衰退起點定義在2007年底.但一般的統計到了2008年Q3才出現GDP負值.很明顯不同.(理由不明).如果GDP定義的衰退是用回朔的.那只對考古有用,對判斷未來反而徒增困擾.<br /><br /><strong>3.ISM指數:</strong>傳說中以50為分界,50以上=成長,50以下=衰退.<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhqjKph4aI/AAAAAAAABEA/Y2dZAIkksJY/s1600-h/NAPM_Max_630_378.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdhqjKph4aI/AAAAAAAABEA/Y2dZAIkksJY/s400/NAPM_Max_630_378.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321120112124748194" /></a><br /><br />1981年的低點,的確ISM是在50以下.但是跌穿50的狀況中,超過60%並沒產生股市下跌與衰退.雜訊太多,而且在股市起漲點.也不會出現明顯變化(低檔不變機率高).這數據似乎只能拿來印證"經濟已經好轉".難以對操作給予重要的訊息.<br /><br />To be continue...<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/gdp.html">美國GDP復甦有多容易?我算給你看! </a><br /><br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/blog-post.html">第一次石油危機年代美國經濟發展與美元貶值 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-6603919025613187957?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-87494788698156252472009-04-04T16:23:00.000-07:002009-04-04T16:29:51.713-07:00<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__April___How_Do_1238705292805.html">FXCM原始資料</a><--(FXCM寫4月)<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdfsnaMj-9I/AAAAAAAABDQ/7HmjWbIwy_I/s1600-h/corr3.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 125px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/SdfsnaMj-9I/AAAAAAAABDQ/7HmjWbIwy_I/s400/corr3.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5320981646552595410" /></a><br /><br /><strong>主要行情摘要:<br /><br />1.美股展開一路拉升行情 <br />2.FED宣佈購買3000公債 <br />3.房市數據好轉 <br />4.澳儲停止降息</strong> <br /><br />上個月相關係數資料:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/03/2fx-correlations-feb-2009.html">2月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (Feb 2009) </a> <br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-8749478869815625247?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-62557400147292127882009-03-25T23:23:00.000-07:002009-03-26T04:09:15.909-07:00<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Scslv85fbSI/AAAAAAAABDI/Ueljn-7zS2c/s1600-h/gold.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 237px; height: 320px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Scslv85fbSI/AAAAAAAABDI/Ueljn-7zS2c/s320/gold.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5317385290772344098" /></a><br />先前在這篇文章中(<a href="http://blog.cnyes.com/My/yesfx/Content.htm?DocumentId=104833">這次黃金跌真的....</a>)提到的時點完全無效.黃金價格依然屹立不搖在900美元之上.目前搞不清楚方向.<br /><br />只知道過去由黃金期貨主導金價的時代已經終結.ETF變成最大的庫存參考.但可能還有比黃金ETF GLD更大的力量!<br /><br /><strong>1.全世界最愛買黃金的是印度人.傳說印度民間黃金儲量高達15000噸=美國黃金儲備的2倍.</strong><br /><br />這是印度人眼中的金價,如果你跟印度佬說黃金技術線型作大頭部,他會用很迷惑的眼神看你..<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ScshmJ9BxNI/AAAAAAAABC4/2FCht0ZR1Us/s1600-h/gold.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 256px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ScshmJ9BxNI/AAAAAAAABC4/2FCht0ZR1Us/s400/gold.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5317380724431635666" /></a><br /><br />印度盧比計價的黃金走勢圖,仍是完美大多頭走勢.未來需要觀查一下破線時,黃金是否會有較大賣壓.<br /><br /><strong>2.傳說中的金礦公司被軋空事件:</strong><br /><br />之前路透有報導過.金礦公司為了鎖定生產利潤,會在期貨放空黃金.傳說2010年的預估產量已經被放空殆盡.金價再漲,黃金公司除了補繳保證金以外,不會多賺一毛錢..如果這件事是真的.未來可能看到黃金ETF大漲,金礦基金與股票大跌的情況出現.<br /><br />我查了一下CBOE的資料,美國最大金礦公司ABX(BARRICK GOLD)的確有些異常:<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ScskNEaBpYI/AAAAAAAABDA/LEMa7raLZP4/s1600-h/abk.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 237px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/ScskNEaBpYI/AAAAAAAABDA/LEMa7raLZP4/s400/abk.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5317383591980803458" /></a><br /><br />2010年1月合約的put總共有超過8萬口=800萬股=股本1%=日交易均量50%.這比正常值大蠻多的.原因不明.需要持續追蹤.<br /><br />目前我仍無法找到這波行情主導的力量所在.當然就難以判斷後勢.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post_09.html">散戶投資黃金數量創歷史最高紀錄 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-6255740014729212788?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-25857088497146867032009-03-15T23:47:00.000-07:002009-03-16T00:26:32.452-07:00<strong>金融海嘯前後積極與保守投資標的的表現回顧</strong><br /><br />從9月全球股市大崩盤至今已經半年.這時正是檢驗過去被視為投資常識的大好時機.<br /><br />積極投資的類股.當然以電腦科技股最具代表性:<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sb33r34shBI/AAAAAAAABCo/FOQeG0lr67U/s1600-h/teg.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 229px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sb33r34shBI/AAAAAAAABCo/FOQeG0lr67U/s400/teg.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313675468475237394" /></a><br /><br />保守的資金避風港.教科書中不二人選:公共事業(Utilities)<br /><a href="http://www.google.com/finance?catid=54508229">google finance utilities</a> 資料點選這<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sb35ilD8SgI/AAAAAAAABCw/ukI6PcppK5U/s1600-h/uti.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sb35ilD8SgI/AAAAAAAABCw/ukI6PcppK5U/s400/uti.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313677507826567682" /></a><br /><br /><strong>第一階段:6~10月:</strong><br /><br />行情從盤整到暴跌:科技股(860~550),跌36%.之後最低點跌45%,公共事業(530~300)跌43%..<br /><br /><strong>第二階段:10~2月:</strong><br /><br />行情進入盤整:科技股(550~470~590),2月高點比10月高7%,比最低高25%.公共事業(300~380)比最低點高27%<br /><br /><strong>第三階段:2月至今:</strong><br /><br />行情第二波修正後反彈:科技股(590~465~525),跌21%,彈13%.公共事業(390~288~304)跌26%,彈5.5%<br /><br /><strong>Total:</strong><br /><br />科技股:(860~465~525):最深跌56%,現在-39%<br />公共事業:(530~288~304):最深跌55%,現在-42%<br /><br /><strong>結論:<br /><br />資金避風港似乎只有在沒有風的時後能發揮效果.真正的海嘯來臨.最好上岸(放現金).不然就是趁暴風稍歇早一步出港,搶進積極標的!</strong><br /><br />延申閱讀:(這概念30年前就有人用來發大財了)<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/11/michael-milken.html">向垃圾債大王米爾肯(Michael Milken)學習股市淘金術 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-2585708849714686703?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-31471128877764234622009-03-04T22:45:00.000-08:002009-03-04T22:50:28.960-08:00<a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__March___How_Do_1236040643843.html">FXCM原始連結</a><--(FXCM show 3月..)<br /><br /><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa91ge7FILI/AAAAAAAABCg/ca4Hefzuzms/s1600-h/corrfeb.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 127px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa91ge7FILI/AAAAAAAABCg/ca4Hefzuzms/s400/corrfeb.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5309591686610231474" /></a><br /><br /><strong>主要行情摘要:<br /><br />1.美股在金融業困擾下緩步創新低 <br />2.各國降息近尾聲 <br />3.下個月日本會計結算 <br />4.天下太平</strong><br /><br />上個月的資料:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/1fx-correlations-jan-2009.html">1月主要貨幣相關係數:FX Correlations (Jan 2009) </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-3147112887776423462?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2288508985945107688.post-64643958909122611862009-03-04T18:27:00.000-08:002009-03-04T19:18:47.594-08:00<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa86A3iVtGI/AAAAAAAABCQ/xUSnBYQGN4g/s1600-h/25866.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 193px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa86A3iVtGI/AAAAAAAABCQ/xUSnBYQGN4g/s200/25866.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5309526272275493986" /></a><a href="http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=2&fi=%5CNEWSBASE%5C20090304%5CWEB2389&vi=34023&sdt=20090222&edt=20090304&top=50&date=20090304&time=20:30:26&cls=index1_headline">OPEC減產效果差 原油需求難提振 海上油輪儲油逾6000萬桶</a>Cnyes.com<br /><br /><strong>你以為記者幫你抓到天大的密秘,讓你能領先廣大愚蠢的投資人嗎??事情可能相反!</strong><br /><br />大部份的投資人與記者記億力似乎都低於3個月.3週前,原油期貨大幅逆價差的異象.2個月前亞洲航空公司因油價大跌而慘賠的事件已經被忘光..(請參考:<a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2009/02/blog-post_12.html">油價近期可能大漲 </a>).我們就從這兩事件來拼湊市場的全貌.<br /><br />中港台的航空公司在油價大漲時苦撐小賠,到了油價崩跌時變成慘賠百億美金以上,幾個月前被當作奇事報出來,但中國與台灣的航空公司多是國有股份.老版就是大官.媒體很快就消音,投資人也就不再注意這件事.會發生這種蠢事.是因為當初高油價時,航空公司為了避險,跟高盛簽衍生性商品合約Buy call,但是又貪心不想付權利金,因此多作了雙倍sell put 賣出價外選擇權.履約價大約在70~80元.結果一口賠4萬美元.<br /><br />以虧損百億來看.這大約等於25萬口=2.5億桶(目前3個近月期貨OI大概50萬口).航空公司不會提領原油加到飛機裡,也不想在市場認賠賣掉被剝第二層皮,因此會持有遠月份合約,在用價差交易換成燃油期貨,沖銷日常的用油消耗.這造成過去幾個月輕原油低於布侖特,遠近月份價差高達20%,成品油與原油價差急速擴大的異象.<br /><br />只要市場有蠢蛋輸家,對沖基金聞到血腥味,不可能甚麼都不做.因此這些對沖基金狂租油輪存油,同時把遠月合約賣給苦主.3個月20%套利躺著賺.油輪租金跟本是小case..<strong>因此既沒有看好油價等著賣的人,也不會有人倒貨,期貨早就賣掉了.6000萬桶海上庫存交易早已完成,不會再影響市場.</strong><br /><br />從實質需求面來看.6000萬桶油也不是大事.全球需求一天是8000萬桶,美國日用量是2300萬桶..這些存量,老美Happy一個週末就用光了..加上過去幾個月金融風暴,全球企業同步減少庫存增加現金.等夏天用油需求開始後,6000萬桶一下子就會消融在整體市場常態運作中.<br /><br /><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa9CrlItx_I/AAAAAAAABCY/FgNBYo0lpYc/s1600-h/oil.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 141px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_A43FoI3R7ro/Sa9CrlItx_I/AAAAAAAABCY/FgNBYo0lpYc/s400/oil.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5309535802163578866" /></a><br /><br />油價從3月結算後跳漲10元大約25%,既沒有過度預期,也不需要經濟復甦..只不過是回復常態而已.在這段過程中,高盛到底是陰謀主導,還是精明順勢推舟,永遠無法確認.只知高盛這些交易員,在這場賭局中夠狠,夠厲害.不得不配服.<br /><br />延申閱讀:<br /><a href="http://yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com/2008/07/crack-spread.html">從裂解價差(Crack spread)判斷原油價格走勢 </a><br /><br />加入書籤：<!-MyShare-><a href="javascript:(function(){d=document;w=window;t='';if(d.selection){t=d.selection.createRange().text;}else{if(d.getSelection){t=d.getSelection();}else{if(w.getSelection){t=w.getSelection()}}}void(window.open('http://myshare.url.com.tw/index.php?func=newurl&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&desc='+escape(document.title)+'&contents='+escape(t),'newwin'))})();"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/1.jpg" title="MyShare" alt="MyShare" border="0"></a><!-FunP-><a href="http://funp.com/push/submit/add.php?&via=tools" title="貼到funP"><img src="http://funp.com/tools/images/post_05.gif" border="0"/></a><!-HemiDemi-><a href="javascript:desc='';via='';if(document.referrer)via=document.referrer;if(typeof(_ref)!='undefined')via=_ref;if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.hemidemi.com/user_bookmark/new?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&description='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&via='+encodeURIComponent(via)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/2.jpg" title="HemiDemi" alt="HemiDemi" border="0"></a> <!-Baidu-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://cang.baidu.com/do/add?iu='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&it='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&dc='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/3.jpg" title="Baidu" alt="Baidu" border="0"></a><!-Google Bookmarks-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://www.google.com/bookmarks/mark?op=add&bkmk='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&annotation='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/4.jpg" title="Google Bookmarks" alt="Google Bookmarks" border="0"></a> <!-Yahoo! My Web-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://tw.myweb2.search.yahoo.com/myresults/bookmarklet?t='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&u='+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href)+'&d='+encodeURIComponent(desc)+'&ei=UTF-8'));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/5.jpg" title="Yahoo! My Web" alt="Yahoo! My Web" border="0"></a> <!-Del.icio.us-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://del.icio.us/post?title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'¬es='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/6.jpg" title="Del.icio.us" alt="Del.icio.us" border="0"></a> <!-Digg-><a href="javascript:desc='';if(window.getSelection)desc=window.getSelection();if(document.getSelection)desc=document.getSelection();if(document.selection)desc=document.selection.createRange().text;void(open('http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title)+'&bodytext='+encodeURIComponent(desc)));"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/7.jpg" title="Digg" alt="Digg" border="0"></a> <!-Technorati-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://technorati.com/faves?add='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title))"><img src="http://web.caidiy.com/plate/files/myblog/person/make_template/cgs0102/1037//images/8.jpg" title="technorati" alt="technorati" border="0"></a><!-AddThis-><a href="javascript:void window.open('http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=addthis&url='+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+'&title='+encodeURIComponent(document.title));"><img src="http://s3.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" title="其他更多書籤" alt="其他更多書籤" border="0"></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "pub-4897056762301700"; //468x60, 已建立 2008/1/26 google_ad_slot = "2560146195"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 60; //--></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2288508985945107688-6464395890912261186?l=yesfx-global-invest.blogspot.com'/></div>..http://www.blogger.com/profile/09411808417149479294noreply@blogger.com3