handicapping

spreads on football

2007-09-19T13:20:00.000-07:00

Reading and Understanding Point Spreads
Vital for Football and Basketball BettingEmily loves sports – college football, NFL, and NBA. She knows a lot of people have a blast betting sports and wants to join the fun. But Emily is unsure of how to get started with sports gambling. In the newspapers and on the Internet she always sees “point spreads” (sometimes called “lines”) on the games but isn’t exactly sure what the numbers mean. Understanding point spreads is a key first step to learning about sports betting. Emily’s not alone in needing the basics of point spreads explained, so let’s all learn how to read point spreads together. Then we'll be on our way to enjoying the fun of sports betting.
What Is the Point Spread?In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process). If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
How to Read the Point SpreadNew England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
Philly wins the actual game by any amount of points OR
Philly loses the game by less than 7 points. There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
For Those Who Like to Consider Things MathematicallyNot a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Subtracting the point spread from the favorite’s score (thus the minus sign before the number) and then compare to the underdog’s score OR
Adding the point spread to the underdog’s score (thus the plus sign before the number) and then compare to the favorite’s score
Who Really “Won” the Super Bowl?Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 21 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 21 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
Handicaps / Spreads What are Handicaps / Spreads?Handicapping is a way of making a sports contest more even and thus more interesting as a betting object. In betting, this is done by awarding one of the teams, the underdog, some points or goals ahead. Different names and conventions are being used for this, depending on the sport and the geographical origin of the bookmaker, but once you see through this, the basic principle is always the same.
How Handicapping WorksConsider a football (soccer) match between Austria and Brazil, with Austria being the home team. A bookmaker may offer odds on an event, where Austria is given an advantage of ½ goal in the bet. The handicap is +0.5. So, if Austria scores the most goals, with ½ a goal added, they will still have won. If the teams score an equal number of goals, with the ½ goal added, Austria will have won the handicapped bet. However, if Brazil wins (by 1 goal or more), Brazil will have won in the bet. Note that with a handicap of +0.5, the game can never end in a draw.
The exact same principle can be used in any contest between two teams or individuals, where the outcome of the contest is determined by who scores the most goals / points / For example, in a baseball match, where the team scoring the most runs is the winner, the handicap will be a number of runs awarded to the underdog. Handicapping is the most common type of bet in the US team sports. The handicap is often referred to as the spread.
For convenience, we'll stick to European football in the following examples, but everything translates directly to other sports. Just exchange goals for points, runs or whatever the score is called.
Our Odds PresentationWe always use the convention of listing the handicap in terms of (net) points awarded to the first of the two teams. If the handicap is negative, for instance -½, it means that team 1 is the favourite and will have goals deducted from it's score. If the handicap is positive, it means that team 1 is the underdog and will have goals added to it's score.
Draw Option / No Draw OptionThe handicap might be integer, e.g., +1.0 (which means that team 1 is awarded 1 goal ahead). In this case, the contest could end in a draw - if team 1 loses with exactly 1 goal.
This can be dealt with in two possible ways: Either the bookmaker offers an option to bet on the draw, handicap with a draw option. Or he doesn't and then returns the stake (possibly deducting a minor fee), handicap without a draw option.
In the first case, the punter then has three choices, just as in a usual home / draw / away match bet. And in the latter, he only has two choices, home and away team. Just as when the handicap was +0.5. The latter principle is always used in the US sports, where draws are quite unlikely in any case due to the rules of the sports. In European football, this varies between bookmakers and some even offer both types of handicaps. The 'no draw option' type for European football is often called Asian Handicaps. Just another name.
In handicaps without a draw option, bookmakers differ in the payback percentage, which varies between 90% and 100%, with most paying back the full amount. This corresponds to voiding the bet, essentially declaring the bet unable to settle and cancelling. The payback percentages are listed at the bookmaker information pages. Over/Under What are Over/Under Bets?Over/Under bets are mentioned here, because they remind a lot about handicaps. In an O/U bet, the bet is determined on the total number of goals / points / runs / sets scored in the match. For a European football match, the bet could for instance offer odds 2.10 for the total number of goals to exceed 2.5. Or in an American football game, the bet could offer odds 1.90 for the total number of points to exceed 35. And so on. You can offer Over/Under bets on anything, which is determined by the outcome of some single number.
As with handicaps, an Over/Under can end undetermined if the threshold in the bet, the total, is integer, e.g. the American football Over/Under with a total of 35. And again there is an issue of a payback / refund of the bet stake in case this happens.
Handicaps and Over/Unders are the same..The similarity between handicap and Over/Under betting is particularly clear when you notice, that handicap bets are simply Over/Under-bets, where the number determining the Over/Under is the goal difference between the two teams. You will also see an identical presentation of the two types of bets at this site. A Special Feature of Asian Handicaps - Handicaps (0,+½ ) and (½,+1) Combining HandicapsFor Asian Handicaps - that is, handicap bets without the draw option for European football matches - there is a further specialization often used, the combination of two different handicaps.
Handicap (+½,+1)For instance, an Asian Handicap bet could be an offer of odds 1.90 for Austria to beat Brazil at home with handicap (+½,+1). This handicap is also sometimes listed as +¾, which can be quite confusing and is a bad methodology. What handicap (+½,+1) means is, that the punter will be rewarded as if he placed 50% of the stake on the bet with handicap +½ and 50% of the stake on the bet with handicap +1.
In the example, the punter will get a payout of 1.90 if Austria draws or wins. And he will lose his money if Brazil wins by two goals or more. Why? Because these are the payout for both handicap +½ and +1.
If Brazil wins by 1 goal, e.g. final score Austria 0, Brazil 1, then handicaps +½ and +1 differ. The punter's money will be lost in case of handicap +½, giving a payout of 0, while the game will be tied in case of handicap +1, giving a payback of the original stake. Mixing the two together, fifty-fifty, the punter receives 0.5 x 0 + 0.5 x 1 = 0 + 0.5 = 0.5.
Handicap (0,+½)If the handicap is (0,+½), the two handicaps in the combination will differ if the game is tied, e.g. final score Austria 1, Brazil 1. For handicap 0, the game is tied and the punter is returned his stake, a payout of 1. For handicap +½, Austria is the winning bet, and the punter receives a payout corresponding to the odds offered, 1.90. Mixing the two together, fifty-fifty, the punter receives 0.5 x 1 + 0.5 x 1.90 = 0.5 + 0.95 = 1.45.

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handicapping

2006-11-12T09:25:00.000-08:00

handicapping

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If you are a casual player and feel overwhelmed by what seems to be an excess of information to work with, begin your handicapping of each race by eliminating half of the horses in each race by highest odds.
Use a graded handicap listing morning line odds. This can be in the Daily Racing Form, the track program, etc. Example: a race has twelve horses. Half of 12 is 6. Find the six horses listed at the highest odds and throw them out. (If a race has an odd number of entries, round up: 11 horses entered, use the 6 lowest odds horses).
Statistics show that the majority of winners come from the half of the field going off at lower odds. This may be stronger today than just a few years ago as some tracks must card short fields compared to average field size in the past.
Sure, you'll miss some longshots, but in the absence of in-depth handicapping, this simple start can be a great help for the casual player. It's a lot easier to handicap 6 horses than 12!
Let's assume that we know the horses in a turf race have grass breeding and/or a demonstrated ability to run well on the surface. What next? Many handicappers try to handicap turf races in much the same way they approach races on dirt. While it's possible to do handicap that way sometimes, class should be the first traditional tool you use when you analyze a claiming or allowance grass race for older horses.
A good look at the types of races a horse has been running in usually tells a lot more than meets the eye at first. Do the pp's show a checkered record of dirt and turf races or does the horse always run in turf races? Few horses are able to run consistently well on both surfaces.
Does the horse win or finish up close in claiming races but always finish out of it in allowance races? (Now there's a point of analysis that is valid on grass or dirt!)
The fourth race at Hollywood Park on Friday, June 7, 1996 is a good illustration. Reduced to a five-horse field by a late scratch, the mile and a sixteenth race was an allowance for horses 4 & up which had not won $25,000 other than closed, claiming, or starter at a mile or over in 1995-96. [Remember: this means that an eligible horse could not have won a race of the types specified with a purse value of $41,666 or more in '95-'96.]
GOLDEN POST: 6 years old. First start of this year. PP's show nothing but turf races. Turf record: 13 3 7 1. Two turf wins showing in the PP's, spent a year trying to get from non-winners 2X to non-winners 3x, which was done last out by a half a length. Lots of seconds. Has never run in an allowance race with as high a purse value as today's race. Looks like a horse who has "seconditis" regadrless of class level. Unlikely for the win today.
TORCH ROUGE: 5 years old. Third start of the year with the last two about a month apart, finishing way back in a Grade II and a Handicap with a $71K purse. Ran last year almost exclusively in Graded Stakes races. Best races were in high-purse allowance races, like today's. This guy is taking a major class drop from his last two starts, coming back to the type of race he has shown he can handle well. He flashed early speed in the second back and gained ground at every call in the last one. SERIOUS PLAYER.
BARTOK: 5 years old. First start on U.S. soil. New trainer. Best race was an allowance race with a purse of $14,200. Probably outclassed.
POLISH ADMIRAL: 5 years old. First start of the year. Winless since 1994, and only 5 starts last year, all in much better races than today's. Good record in 94, bad record in 95. Horses don't make money staying in their stalls for six months at a shot. Overall, appears to be in decline. The lack of any solid positive factors makes me discount his chances for today greatly.
SAMAH: 6 years old. Fourth start of the year and fourth U.S. start. Last win was in a handicap in England with a purse of $21,500. His record last year of 12 3 0 0 and his turf record of 27 4 1 3 clearly says he is a "win-it-or-forget-it" type of horse. No matter: he's outclassed for today's conditions.
It's not often that a horse who finished 6th out of 8 in his last race and 6th out of 7 in the race before that wins and pays $3.80. But Torch Rouge did just that. Connections and trainer/jockey stats notwithstanding, this example may seem almost too easy because of the short field. However, you'll find the same variety of horses from time to time in turf races with full fields as well. In those races, remembering to use Class on the Grass will produce winners at odds that are much more reasonable!

Thoroughbred racing entries, results, race day info, racing news, handicapping features, past performances, free selections, betting guides, books
Handicapping also refers to the various methods by which spectators can ... “Trip Handicapping” takes place during the race and involves watching the horses
At The Track - Handicapping service with pay selections and a free long-shot pick ... Horse Wagering - Free race picks and tips, handicapping and wagering