The Steelyard

Ravens 20, Steelers 17 (OT)

2009-11-30T09:17:00.000-08:00

In spite of the fact that third-string QB Dennis Dixon played well enough to win, the Steelers lost to the Ravens last night, 20-17. The defeat drops Pittsburgh to 6-5, but the predicted loss raises the record of "What are the Chances...?" to 7-4 and 46-17 all-time.

Next: Oakland Raiders at Heinz Field.

Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh featured in The Onion

2009-11-29T07:47:00.000-08:00

The Onion's sports section currently features an article titled: Pittsburgh School District Leads Nation In Ability To Spell 'Roethlisberger'. Good stuff. I'm guessing that Pittsburgh also leads all NFL cities in terms of percentage of citizens who know how to spell 'concussion.'

Ravens: What are the Chances…?

2009-11-29T07:13:00.000-08:00

With QB Ben Roethlisberger sidelined by a concussion, second-year QB Dennis Dixon will make his first NFL start. This late development leaves Pittsburgh at a major disadvantage at the quarterback position, especially when one considers that Dixon didn’t get much practice time with the first team offense this week.

Meanwhile, it’s scary to think that Big Ben is still feeling the after-effects of his latest concussion. It’s even scarier to contemplate the possibility that his career might end prematurely due to concussions. But at least the Steelers seem to be erring on the side of caution this time around, as opposed to 2006, when he was permitted to play in a game at Oakland just a week after absorbing a crushing hit in a game at Atlanta. Roethlisberger didn’t even look back-to-normal during that game against the Raiders, and it remains the worst game he’s ever played in the NFL.

However, there may be a silver lining to having Big Ben out of the lineup, as the Steelers will be forced to go back-to-basics on offense. And if the team experiences some success with a more conservative game plan--a big if, I know--perhaps Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians will stick with a more conservative approach even after Roethlisberger returns to the lineup.

Still, it won’t be easy to beat the Ravens with Dixon at QB and Troy Polamalu still out with a knee injury. But most Steelers-Ravens games are close contests no matter the circumstances, and I doubt the 5-5 Ravens will be able to pull away with an easy victory. It’s even possible that the Steelers will play better as a team, knowing that Big Ben won’t be there to bail them out with his passing heroics. And there isn’t a “book” yet on how to defend Dixon, seeing as he’s never started a game. That’s why I’m predicting a loss, but still giving the Steelers a 35 percent chance of winning.

What are the Chances…? is 6-4 in 2009 and 45-17 all-time.

Chiefs: What are the Chances...?

2009-11-21T09:55:00.000-08:00

With last week's loss to the Bengals, 'What are the Chances...?' is now 6-3 on the year and 45-16 all-time. I'm expecting to get back into the win column - along with the Steelers - on Sunday, as I figure Pittsburgh has at least a 75 percent chance of beating Kansas City. The Steelers are a 10 point favorite in the game, and deservedly so. Hopefully, Pittsburgh will make every effort to run the ball this week, as KC's run defense is a weakness.

When the Chiefs are a good team, Arrowhead Stadium is a very difficult place to play. (Keep in mind that the Steelers lost 41-20 the last time they visited Kansas City, in 2003.) But it would be shocking if Pittsburgh failed to get back on track against the Chiefs, at 2-7 still one of the weakest teams in the league.

Women Against Fantasy Sports

2009-11-18T09:21:00.000-08:00

Just thought some of you fantasy football loving Steelers fans might be interested in this feature article about a relatively new organization called Women Against Fantasy Sports.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

2009-11-14T18:07:00.001-08:00

The Steelers are a 7 point favorite over the Bengals--too many points, in my opinion. As you probably know, the Bengals defeated Pittsburgh 23-20 in Cincinnati back in week three. It was one of the most frustrating losses by the Steelers in years, as Pitt totally outplayed Cincy, but repeatedly self-destructed when they had chances to put the game away.

Having won five consecutive games since that loss, the Steelers are playing much better football than they did in September. Bengals QB Carson Palmer will also have to contend with former USC roomate Troy Polamalu this time around. And Palmer will be without the services of WR Chris Henry, who is out for the year with a broken arm.

This is a more important game for the Steelers than the Bengals, as a Cincy win would give the Bengals a one-game lead and the tiebreaker advantage over Pittsburgh in the race for the division title. I'm guessing, though, that the Steelers will find a way to win this time around - only a 55 percent chance, however.

'What are the Chances...?' is 6-2 in 2009 and 45-15 all-time.

Mean Joe Greene to receive Clio for 1979 Coca-Cola ad, reunite with Tommy Okon

2009-11-11T09:21:00.000-08:00

Prior to the Bengals-Steelers game at Heinz Field this Sunday, Hall of Fame defensive tackle "Mean" Joe Greene will be on hand to accept his Clio award (thirty years after the fact!) for his work in the legendary 1979 Coca-Cola ad that featured nine-year-old boy Tommy Okon offering Greene his Coke, and Mean Joe tossing his white Steelers jersey to Okon as a gesture of thanks. Apparently, Greene never actually received the hardware for his Clio (an award for creative excellence in advertising), and Coke is using the 30th anniversary of the spot to take the opportunity to present it to him. Okon will also be on hand at the ceremony, reuniting with Mean Joe for the first time in years.

Following is the video for the original ad, which was reprised by Coke Zero in January of this year in a similar spot with current Steelers safety Troy Polamalu.

Broncos: What are the Chances...?

2009-11-09T10:37:00.000-08:00

The Steelers are three-point favorites over the Broncos in tonight’s game, something of a surprise when one considers that Denver has only one loss thus far this season, and possesses a significant home field advantage. Making matters worse, Pittsburgh will be missing several key starters on defense — including safety Ryan Clark, who is expected to be deactivated, as the last time Clark played in Denver he suffered life-threatening complications when his sickle-cell condition was aggravated by the high altitude.

Nevertheless, the Steelers seem to match up favorably with the Broncos on both sides of the ball. Broncos QB Kyle Orton doesn’t possess a style that typically gives Pittsburgh’s D fits. And Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers have the potential to exploit Denver’s pass defense, provided Big Ben gets reasonably good protection from his O-Line. That’s why the key matchup in the game figures to be Steelers LT Max Starks against Broncos LB Elvis Dumervil, who has already recorded 10 sacks this season.

While the Steelers haven’t won a regular season game in Denver since 1990, I’m guessing this is the year Pittsburgh breaks that streak. I’m giving the Steelers a 55 percent chance of coming out of Denver with a win.

What are the Chances…? is 5-2 thus far in 2009 and 44-15 all-time.

Vikings: What are the Chances…?

2009-10-23T12:37:00.000-07:00

The Steelers are currently a five point favorite over the undefeated Vikings. That’s too much. If I were a betting man, I’d bet the Vikings. Don’t get me wrong. The Steelers have a good chance of winning — in fact I’m picking them to win (55 percent chance) — but even if Pittsburgh comes away with a victory, it will likely be by a narrow margin.

What gives me pause is the fact that the Steelers have been unable to put together a complete game thus far in 2009. And it’s going to take a 60-minute effort to defeat a team as good as Minnesota.

The key matchup in the game figures to be Steelers left tackle Max Starks versus Vikings DE Jared Allen.

“What are the Chances...?” is 4-2 in 2009 and 43-15 all-time.

Browns: What are the Chances...?

2009-10-17T14:26:00.000-07:00

Last I checked the Steelers were a 14 point favorite over the Browns, which sounds about right, except if trends continue Pittsburgh will lose focus in the fourth quarter and fail to cover. I give the Steelers an 85 percent chance of winning this game - which I am in Pittsburgh to attend, I'm happy to say. The Steelers should be able to run the ball on Cleveland, and it's hard to see the Browns' offense thriving (regardless of who plays QB) against Pittsburgh's D.

"What are the Chances...?" is 3-2 in 2009 and 42-15 all-time.

Steelers fans losing to Lions fans in Chunky Soup contest

2009-10-10T07:55:00.000-07:00

Attention Steelers fans. As of this moment, we’re being outvoted by Detroit Lions fans in this week’s Click for Cans matchup by a count of 9,655 – 8,733. That means our undefeated 4-0 record in the contest is in serious jeopardy. Jump in and vote for the Steelers to help ensure a fourth quarter comeback.

Lions: What are the Chances…?

2009-10-10T07:35:00.000-07:00

The chances figure to be pretty good that the Steelers will defeat the Detroit Lions, even without the services of starting RB Willie Parker and starting safety Troy Polamalu. Last I checked, the Steelers were 10.5 point favorites, which sounds about right.

No doubt the Steelers will feel right at home in Detroit, as Ford Field was the site of the one of the team’s recent Super Bowl victories, and plenty of Steelers fans will no doubt be in attendance. So let’s assign the Steelers an 85 percent chance of winning.

What are the Chances…? is just 2-2 thus far in 2009, but 41-15 all-time.

Chargers: What are the Chances...?

2009-10-03T11:37:00.000-07:00

The Steelers have betrayed me two weeks in a row. But I'm going to pick them to win for a third consecutive week, hoping the third time is the charm. Still, I don't see the Steelers as a 6.5 point favorite, as the oddmakers do. More than likely, it will be a close game, if the Steelers pull it out at all. I'll assign the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning this near must-win home game.

"What are the Chances...." is 1-2 thus far in 2009, and 40-15 all-time.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

2009-09-26T19:53:00.001-07:00

I have to admit, tomorrow's game at Cincinnati makes me nervous, more so than next week's home game versus San Diego. If Cincy can overcome a slew of penalties and a couple of bad interceptions by Carson Palmer and still win by 7 points at Green Bay, I see no reason why the Bengals can't beat the Steelers in the Jungle. In fact, if Cincy can keep its collective composure for four quarters I think the Bengals might very well pull out an upset.

Of course, history is on Pittsburgh's side. Big Ben hasn't yet lost a start in Cincinnati - or the state of Ohio, for that matter - and it's not difficult to imagine the Bengals losing their discipline and coming unglued at an inopportune time. That's why I'm picking the Steelers - assigning a 55 percent chance of victory - in spite of the fact that I can't really find a quantifiable reason why they'll be successful.

"What are the Chances...." is 1-1 thus far in 2009, and 40-14 all-time.

Troy Polamalu in The Onion

2009-09-24T18:21:00.000-07:00

Troy Polamalu All Over Orthopedic Clinic.

Bears: What are the Chances...?

2009-09-19T18:54:00.000-07:00

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite on the road against the 0-1 Bears, a line that sounds about right to me. The Bears were a mistake prone team last week against Green Bay, and Bears fans have to be concerned about how Jay Cutler & Co. struggled against the Packers' 3-4 defense (which is derivative of the 3-4 run by the Steelers). Pittsburgh has also had extra time to rest and prepare for this game, having played its opener 10 days ago. That's why I'm giving the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning this matchup.

"What are the Chances...?" is 1-0 this year and 40-13 over the course of three-plus seasons.

Titans: What are the Chances…?

2009-09-09T13:43:00.000-07:00

Today marks the return of The Steelyard’s “What are the Chances?” feature, in which I predict the outcome of the next Steelers game by estimating the likelihood of a Pittsburgh win (on a percentage basis). Last year I predicted 13 of 19 games correctly; my three-year record stands at 39-13.

Last I checked the Steelers were favored by six points over the Titans. That sounds like too many points. Much like last year in Nashville, Pittsburgh’s offensive line could struggle against the Titans’ front-seven, leading to an ineffective offense — or worse, turnovers. And avoiding turnovers is the key to the game for the Steelers, as Tennessee figures to need some easy points to come out of Pittsburgh with a win. I’m picking the Steelers (giving Pittsburgh a 55 percent chance of winning), but the Titans DL v. Steelers OL matchup definitely makes me nervous.

Brett Keisel set to sign contract extension

2009-08-31T09:54:00.000-07:00

In what has to be characterized as a minor surprise, the Steelers are apparently set to ink DE Brett Keisel, 30, to a long-term contract extension. Maybe the fact that it’s difficult to find ends that can thrive in Pittsburgh’s 3-4 scheme played a role in the decision. Or maybe it’s that Keisel is Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend on the team. But I expected PK Jeff Reed or S Ryan Clark to be next in line for an extension — not Keisel.

Ziggy Hood's rookie contract

2009-08-04T08:52:00.000-07:00

By now everyone knows that Pittsburgh’s first round draft pick, Ziggy Hood, signed a five year contract just prior to the opening of training camp. But I have not yet seen the contract numbers published on any blog or in any newspaper article. According to http://steelerslive.com/xtra/salarycap, the contract included a $6 million signing bonus, and calls for salaries of $1.1 million (2009), $395,000 (2010), $600,000 (2011 and 2012), and $660,000 (2013).

Health Miller signs contract extension

2009-07-30T09:49:00.000-07:00

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, starting tight end Health Miller has signed a contract extension that will keep him in Pittsburgh for the next six years. The agreement calls for a $12.5 million signing bonus and has a total value of $35.3 million.

Personally, I like the idea of extending Miller's contract, but in contrast to other recent contracts (Starks, Kemoeatu, Ward) it seems like the team might have overpaid a little in this case.

At any rate, kicker Jeff Reed might be next in line for a contract extension (with safety Ryan Clark also a possibility). Reed plays a position that isn't particularly expensive, and he's proven that he can kick effectively at Heinz Field, which is no small consideration.

Roethlisberger TV commerical for Dick's Sporting Goods/Nike

2009-07-24T03:16:00.000-07:00

This morning I saw a TV commercial on ESPN for Dick's Sporting Goods that features Nike Air Marauder cleats ... and Ben Roethlisberger. Is this a new commerical? If it is, the timing of the launch is awful. Watch it here:

Roethlisberger issues statement, calls allegations 'reckless and false'

2009-07-23T11:54:00.000-07:00

At 2 p.m. today Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger read a prepared statement - his first public comments - since Andrea McNulty's lawsuit was filed against him (and eight other defendants) last week.

Roethlisberger and his attorney have 20 days from the date of the filing of the lawsuit to file an Answer (unless they request and are granted an extension of time).

Ben Roethlisberger's shirt makes us cringe

2009-07-19T14:28:00.000-07:00

Ben Roethlisberger finished tied for 30th at the American Century celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe. Sorry Cincinnati and Cleveland - Big Ben finished ahead of Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson. (Now he's beating Bengals and Browns on the golf course too!)

But what really got our attention was this photo (buried in the "behind the scenes" section of the tahoecelebritygolf.com Web site), and not because he's standing next to former LPGA star Annika Sorenstam. (That is Annika, isn't it?) If you can't make out the words it reads: "Harley Davidson."

Roethlisberger moves up leaderboard at American Century Championship

2009-07-18T15:29:00.000-07:00

Ben Roethlisberger is now tied for 22nd after two rounds of the American Century Championship celebrity golf tournament at Edgewood Tahoe Golf Club. Meanwhile, his day one playing partners Mario Lemieux and Jerome Bettis have slipped off the pace, with Lemieux falling into a tie for 36th and Bettis all the way back to 48th. Complete results can be found here.

Odds on a Steeler winning the Tahoe Celebrity golf tournament

2009-07-16T13:45:00.000-07:00

Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis will both be playing in this weekend's American Century Championship in Lake Tahoe. In fact, they will be paired with Mario Lemieux in the first round of the tournament tomorrow (July 17). The odds on Big Ben winning the tourney are listed at 20-1 (kinda long odds considering his round at Bethpage Black a few weeks back), while The Bus is a longshot at 200-1.

Former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is in at 20-1 odds. And of course, Charles Barkley is the longest of the longshots at 499-1, up from the 500-1 he usually rates.