The October Protocol

Easter Island Game Statistics

2008-10-05T11:26:00.003-05:00

JC was a carpenter AND...

2008-09-05T12:00:00.004-05:00

...a community organizer.

Pontius Pilate was the governor.

(hat tip: reader comment on JMart's blog)

Is she a lil' bit country, or a lil' bit rock n' roll?

2008-09-04T00:42:00.011-05:00

Four months ago, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee named her* child after Van Halen.

Wired:

Trig Paxson Van Palin (an homage to the rock band Van Halen) was born in April. With Trig in tow, Palin returned to work a few days later, for a meeting of her energy team.

Four.

Months.

Ago.

It's one thing to have a few posters of a spread-eagled David Lee Roth underneath your bearskin rug, but to include a pun related to the band in your kid's name, that's so...dazed and confused:

EXT. BACK PORCH - NIGHT

Gathered with a few friends and family, BARRICUDA, wearing a VH 1979 World Tour shirt chills outside of AIP convention after-hours party. A joint of Great Alaskan Thunderfuck is passed.

BARRICUDA: (takes hit) I was thinking...(cough, snort) I was thinking of naming one of the kids Van Palen.

LEVI: You mean, like, (giggles) the guy in Dracula.

TODD: Nah, brah, like the band.

WOODERSON: Alright, alright, alright.

CUT TO... PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TRAIL?!

And we're supposed to believe she is a serious candidate to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

But supporters shout, "She's the everywoman, the girl next door."

I don't want my neighbor running for Vice President.

*Yes, while questions still remain regarding Bristol's extended school absence and the slooooowest leak, amniotic or otherwise, since the Edwards love child story, I feel that the absence of further evidence absolves Gov. Palin of suspicion in any baby-switching plot.

McCain-Palin 08: Baby Mama Drama

2008-08-30T09:47:00.007-05:00

This photo was taken on February 5, Super Tuesday, when Sarah Palin was 6 months pregnant (Trig was born on April 18). She looks good, right? Not showing at all . . . at SIX months of her FIFTH pregnancy.

Here's another strange fact:

The governor's water broke during the energy conference but she stayed and gave a 30-minute speech before boarding an Alaska Airlines plane home to deliver the baby.

The flight from Dallas to Juneau takes around 11-12 hours and it's a widely accepted fact in the medical community that time in labor usually decreases with each successive childbirth. Airlines don't usually let you fly without a doctor's note if you are 28-weeks pregnant or more (In Palin's case she was reportedly at 32 weeks) and Section II.7.1 of the FAA Regulations Manual on transportation of patients by airlines states the following:

Obstetrical patients in later stages provide a significant risk of precipitating delivery during flight; pregnancy past 32 weeks should be carefully considered for restriction from flight and those past 36 weeks should be prohibited from flying. An aircraft is not a delivery room.

Palin apparently was not only able to keep her 8 month pregnancy a secret from the airline employees before the 12 hour flight, but also the fact that her water had broken. Of course, the easiest way to keep that secret is if you aren't actually pregnant.

Bristol Palin, Gov. Palin's 17-year old daughter, was out of school for the last 4-5 months of the Governor's pregnancy with mononucleosis.

There appears to be a lot of smoke, but no fire yet, and there may never be, but what makes campaigning in the age of the internet so taxing is that every blogger has a smoke detector. Wasilla, AK, this ain't Governor. Welcome to the national stage, for better or for worse.

In parting, a video for your perusal. Does she look and act 6.5 months pregnant in this video . . . hard to say. She is wearing the same outfit she was wearing on Super Tuesday. Is that her pregnancy suit?

Note: Pictures of Palin during her pregnancy have already been taken down from the Alaskan Government website. Keep an eye on this link to see if it disappears.

John McCain: 50/50 Chance of Surviving First Term

2008-08-18T11:39:00.011-05:00

Should McCain get elected he will be older than the average life expectancy for American white males during his first term.

Note: This is not the average life expectancy for Americans who were tortured for five years in Vietnam. Based on what McCain suffered through, I would guess that expectancy would be lower.

The Protocol loves demographic reductionism.

War in Georgia!? Atlanta burns again?

2008-08-15T19:27:00.010-05:00

Oh. Not THAT Georgia.

Do we have troops there? No...

Oh, okay,

Well, didja hear that NASA produced those new swimsuits that Phelps is wearing?

In a surprising turn of events Americans don't give a shit about conflict abroad.

This is why Obama chose to take his vacation now. He figured accurately that the Olympics would provide him media cover, even in the face of an act of war by our Cold War nemesis.

Even the internets with their ten-thousand tiny microscopes have moved on from the Caucasus to dissect the upcoming Purpose-Driven Debate with Rick Warren. Follow that up with an Obama veep announcement and the denouement of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad and Georgia won't be on our minds. Was this the October surprise the McCain camp had been waiting for? I hope not. There's a reason it's called the October surprise...

because it happens in October...

right before the election...

when everyone and their grandmother is focused on the campaigns.

If Randy Scheunemann had been slowly stroking his Georgia woody since he left his role as Saakashvili's man in Washington in May, I hope he didn't get overly excited when McCain was the only guy left in the room this week.

The foreplay is far from over and the clean-up could be awkward.

The Protocol is never premature in its analytical ejaculations.

21 Edicts for Election Coverage

2008-08-15T11:56:00.005-05:00

All journalists in Beijing have been issued the 21 edicts from the Chinese Governments propaganda unit.

While the American media enjoys freedom of the press and prides itself on ability to speak truth to power, they figured the Chinese were onto something here and issued their own 21 edicts.

What follows is an item-by-item comparison of the 21 Chinese edicts with The 21 edicts for mainstream media election coverage.

1. The telecast of sports events will be live [but] in case of emergencies, no print is allowed to report on it.

1. The telecast of gaffes will be live [but] if McCain has a "senior moment", no print is allowed to report on it.

2. From August 1, most of the previously accessible overseas websites will be unblocked. No coverage is allowed on this development. There's also no need to use stories published overseas on this matter and [website] operators should not provide any superlinks on their pages.

2. From mid-July, most of the previously unacceptable character attacks will be unblocked only for the candidate trailing in the polls. No coverage is allowed on this development.

3. Be careful with religious and ethnic subjects.

3. Be careful with religious and ethnic subjects.

4. Don't make fuss about foreign leaders at the opening ceremony, especially in relation to seat arrangements or their private lives.

4. Don't make fuss about candidates when they travel abroad, especially in relation to crowd arrangements or their ability to inspire.

5. We have to put special emphasis on ethnic equality. Any perceived racist terms as "black athlete" or "white athlete" is not allowed. During the official telecast, we can refer to Taiwan as "Chinese Taipei". In ordinary times, refer to Taiwanese athletes as "those from the precious island Taiwan....." In case of any pro Taiwan-independence related incident inside the venue, you shall follow restrictions listed in item 1.

5. We have to put special emphasis on ethnic equality. Any perceived racist terms as "black politician" or "white politician" is not allowed. During the official telecasts, we can refer to Sen. Obama as "Sen. Barack Obama". In ordinary times, refer to Sen. Obama as "that black man from the precious island Hawaii....." In case of any pro race-baiting related incident inside any venue, you shall dissect it for a minimum of 3 news cycles.

6. For those ethnic Chinese coaches and athletes who come back to Beijing to compete on behalf of other countries, don't play up their "patriotism" since that could backfire with their adopted countries.

6. For those ethnic Scotch-Irish Americans who surface from their hollows to speak on behalf of Appalachia, don't play up their "patriotism" since that could backfire with Americans who believe, "all men are created equal," and other quaint notions expressed in our founding documents.

7. As for the Pro-Tibetan independence and East Turkistan movements, no coverage is allowed. There's also no need to make fuss about our anti-terrorism efforts.

7. As for Darfur and Afghanistan, no coverage is allowed. Please make a fuss about our anti-terrorism efforts.

8. All food saftey issues, such as cancer-causing mineral water, is off-limits.

8. All food safety issues, such as the deadly strain of e coli that develops only in corn and grain-fed cattle and spreads in the confined quarters of our factory farms, are off-limits.

9. In regard to the three protest parks, no interviews and coverage is allowed.

9. In regard to PUMAs protesting in Denver, interviews and coverage is encouraged.

10. No fuss about the rehearsals on August 2,5. No negative comments about the opening ceremony.

10. No fuss about the conventions on August 25-28, and September 1-4. No negative comments about the speaker slots.

11.No mention of the Lai Changxing case.

11.Please mention the Rielle Hunter case.

12.No mention of those who illegally enter China.

12.No mention of our economy's dependence on the labor of those who illegally enter America.

13.On international matters, follow the official line. For instance, follow the official propaganda line on the North Korean nuclear issue; be objective when it comes to the Middle East issue and play it down as much as possible; no fuss about the Darfur question; No fuss about UN reform; be careful with Cuba. If any emergency occurs, please report to the foreign ministry.

13.On international matters, follow the official line. For instance, follow the official propaganda line on the North Korean nuclear issue; be objective when it comes to the Middle East issue and play it down as much as possible; no fuss about the Darfur question; No fuss about UN reform; be careful with Gitmo. If any emergency occurs, please follow the Bush Administration's lead.

14. If anything related to territorial dispute happens, make no fuss about it. Play down the Myanmar issue; play down the Takeshima island dispute.

14. If anything related to territorial dispute happens, make no fuss about it. Play down the Georgia issue; play down failed African nations.

15. Regarding diplomatic ties between China and certain nations, don't do interviews on your own and don't use online stories. Instead, adopt Xinhua stories only. Particularly on the Doha round negotiation, US elections, China-Iran co-operation, China-Aussie co-operation, China-Zimbabwe co-operation, China-Paraguay co-operation.

15. Regarding diplomatic ties between USA and certain nations, don't do interviews on your own and don't use online stories. Instead, adopt AP stories only. Particularly on the Kyoto Protocol, Reasons for going to war in Iraq, USA-Saudi Arabia co-operation, USA-Georgia co-operation, USA-Pakistan co-operation, and our role in the UN.

16.Be very careful with TV ratings, only use domestic body's figures. Play it down when rating goes down.

16.Be very careful with any poll that shows one candidate with a decent lead, only use national polls that are close to tied. The race is always tied or too close to call. Remember to report that honestly.

17. In case of an emergency involving foreign tourists, please follow the official line. If there's no official line, stay away from it.

17. In case of an emergency involving Americans struggling against an act of nature, please follow the official line. If there's no official line, stay away from it.

18. Re possible subway accidents in the capital, please follow the official line.

18. Re possible accidents in the capital, please follow the official line, i.e. accuse Arab terrorists first. Note: If government official becomes primary suspect in an act of terrorism, stay away from it.

19.Be positive on security measures.

19.Be positive on security measures. Always remind Americans to be afraid.

20. Be very careful with stock market coverage during the Games.

20. Be very careful with economics coverage during the election. Americans don't understand basic economics. Try to keep it that way.

21.Properly handle coverage of the Chinese sports delegation:

A.don't criticise the selection process

B.don't overhype gold medals; don't issue predictions on gold medal numbers; don't make fuss about cash rewards for athletes.

C.don't make a fuss about isolated misconducts by athletes.

D.enforce the publicity of our anti-doping measures.

E. put emphasis on government efforts to secure the retirement life of atheletes.

F. keep a cool head on the Chinese performance. Be prepared for possible fluctations in the medal race.

G. refrain from publishing opinion pieces at odds with the official propangada line of the Chinese delegation.

21.Properly handle coverage of the rest of the media:

A.don't criticize speculation in reporting.

B.don't overhype the candidates engaging the issues; don't issue predictions about our country being in a crisis; don't make fuss about cash rewards from lobbyists.

C.Please make a fuss about even the faintest whiff of connection to or actual impropriety by key members of campaign staffs.

D.enforce the publicity of our anti-terrorism policies. Again, terror is everywhere.

E. put emphasis on government efforts to secure the retirement life of Americans. Hide the fact that the previous Administration failed miserably at this goal.

F. keep a cool head on polling performance. Be prepared for possible fluctations in the horse race and report on even the tiniest movement.

G. refrain from fact-checking.

Karl Rove: Electoral Genius?

2008-08-14T10:58:00.003-05:00

Karl Rove's latest strategy memo has been posted on the WSJ Opinion page. Rove highlights Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan as the four key battleground states. I don't take issue with this thesis, but the rest of his map is laughably optimistic.

Let's take a look at the article.

If Mr. McCain lost Colorado and Virginia, he would likely have 264 electoral votes (assuming he carried the other states President Bush won in 2004). To win, he would have to pick up a state Democrats are counting on winning, such as Michigan.

Ummm...just because you put it in parentheses Karl, doesn't make the statement disappear. Assuming he wins the Bush states! Really, you're going to slide that in as a given in your analysis. Last time I checked Obama has had significant and consistent polling leads throughout 2008 in both Iowa and New Mexico, two "Bush states." But you'll account for those two states later in the opinion when you run-down the list of competitive states, right?

Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin.

Oh, okay, you've conceded IA and NM to Obama. Great. So now lets check your addition. Bush won 286 EVs in 2004. Subtract from that Iowa's 7 EVs and New Mexico's 5 EVs and McCain is down to 274 EVs. Now, if we continue with Rove's scenario of Obama winning CO and VA, we need to subtract 9 EVs for CO and 13 EVs for VA. McCain is now at 252 EVs, NOT 264. Even if McCain flipped Michigan the two candidates would be tied at 269 and the tie goes to Obama.

Of course that line of analysis assumes McCain runs the table in MI (Obama +3), OH (Obama +1.1), MT (McCain +1.7), FL (McCain +2), NV (McCain +2), MO (McCain +4.1), and IN (McCain +4.7). (538 numbers in parentheses).

If he does that, wait, he STILL loses.

Rove's analysis here is a joke. He is obviously trading on his reputation as an electoral "genius" to disguise preposterous scenarios as realistic possibilities. The irony is, based on memos like this, this type of unfounded, optimistic report wouldn't cross McCain's desk if Rove were running his campaign.

Can we all stop pretending that Karl Rove, "journalist" will provide the same type of analysis as Karl Rove, campaign manager.

The Protocol would never overlook Iowa. New Mexico? Maybe.

Memo to Obama Campaign & Surrogates

2008-08-06T12:56:00.009-05:00

How not to respond to McCain attack memes:

Claim, as does Bob Herbert, that McCain's "Celebrity" ad deliberately juxtaposed Britney Spears with 'phallic' imagery like the Leaning Tower of Pisa and the Washington Monument to inflame subconscious fears of interracial sex.
Suggest, as does Timothy Noah in Slate, that the WSJ's article on Obama's skinniness is really about his race.
Opine, as does The One himself, that the political party that represents about 50% of the nation "takes pride in being ignorant."

How to respond to McCain attack memes:

Point out that McCain himself now concedes that inflating your tires is a good idea.
Circulate widely the news that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, potential dark-horse McCain VP pick, supports Obama's energy plan. (Question: is she now off the shortlist because she endorsed Obama's plan, or is it the other way around? Discuss.)
Somehow get the most loathed celebrity in America, and the daughter of a major McCain supporter, to release the best political ad of the season so far:
. . . and don't let the McCain camp somehow claim that Ms. Hilton's energy plan is the GOP plan, when in fact it's nearly identical to your own.

The October Protocol will see you at the debates, bitches.

Baseless VP speculation

2008-08-04T15:24:00.006-05:00

Now who knows what this means, but for shits and giggles I typed in the following web addresses today:

www.obamakaine08.com

www.obamasebelius08.com

www.obamaclinton08.com

www.obamabayh08.com

. . . and only one of them links directly to the Democratic Party's website.

If it's true, color me disappointed.

UPDATE: Koan gets totally pwned by his lack of knowledge about who owns website names. Oh well.

The October Protocol is sick of waiting and wants to fucking know already.

Obama and the African-American vote in GA

2008-08-03T14:35:00.002-05:00

Updated to include July numbers.

This line chart reflects the Obama campaign's chances of closing the gap in Georgia based solely on registering and motivating AA voters to turnout in November. The solid orange line indicates the growing number of active registered AA voters in Georgia. The dashed orange line is the projected total of active registered AA voters for each month if 20,000 new AA voters are registered each month until the election (an exceedingly optimistic figure given the trend of the last three months). The red, green, and blue lines indicate the active registered voter thresholds the Obama campaign would have to reach given each of the three turnout scenarios described to the right of the chart. As you can see the dashed orange line falls short of the 90% turnout threshold-the wildly optimistic threshold for Obama.

Roughly 2000 new AA voters were registered in Georgia in the last month, a number far below the previous months' totals and further below what the campaign was targeting. What is becoming increasingly clear in Georgia is that Obama will need a lot more than registering and motivating the AA vote to close the Bush-Kerry '04 gap. Paging Bob Barr...

Further explanation of the numbers provided in the chart is here.

Spending a day learning html in order to produce charts that are web-compatible is encouraged under the Protocol.

Can't wait to hear Souter say "G-spot"

2008-08-02T14:34:00.004-05:00

The Fifth Circuit has denied an en banc rehearing of its February decision striking down the Texas Obscene Device Law, which outlawed dildoes and vibrators in the Lone Star State. The original decision relied on the usual suspects--substantive due process under the 14th Amendment, private intimate conduct, Lawrence v. Texas--to hold that the law heavily burdened Texas citizens who wished to get freaky with the help of a $220 Chrome Juicer.

Eugene Volokh speculates that the Supreme Court will hear Texas's appeal, and guesses it will vote 6-3 in favor of the law's constitutionality. The idea is that some of the moderate justices, specifically Kennedy and Breyer, will conclude that the traditional state's interest in regulating morality (which, according to Texas, includes an interest in "discouraging prurient interests in autonomous sex and the pursuit of sexual gratification unrelated to procreation”) should hold unless it implicates a right "important to most people's lives." Chrome Juicers and Fists of Adonis apparently don't make the cut.

Volokh's co-blogger Dale Carpenter lays out a more comprehensive set of possibilities, and tentatively suggests that the law could be struck down by a Kennedy-led 5-4 majority on either a 'fundamental right' or rational-basis analysis. I agree. Justice Kennedy will be certain to angle for a crucial role in the whatever decision the Court hands down, and I find Volokh's suggestion that Justice Breyer might join with a Scalia- or Roberts-led majority unlikely. And with Kennedy as the swing vote, I just can't see him joining an opinion that would undermine what I'm sure he sees as his legacy: the decision in Lawrence that finally got rid of the notion that a state could ban homosexual conduct between consenting adults. True, that opinion neatly dodged the crucial question of whether 'traditional' (read = sex-regulating) morality could ever suffice as a 'rational basis' for government interference with private sexual behavior. It is possible that once having cemented his spot as the key vote, Kennedy could parse some meaningless distinctions, do a lot of on-the-one-hand equivocating, and muddle his way toward allowing the law to stand.

But after all the grief he's taken from Scalia and the SocialCons for Lawrence, I just don't see him letting Texas come into his Court (and these days, he sure thinks it's his Court) and tell him that, Lawrence not withstanding, they can still tell people how and how not to fuck.

For readers who found the Chrome Juicer too tame, The October Protocol recommends The Marvelous Anchor.

Campaign Appearances: July Update

2008-08-02T14:03:00.012-05:00

We first ran this piece last month and here is the line graph with the July totals included. At first glance the July numbers seem to fit with the earlier numbers - both candidates scaled back the number of domestic appearances this month. A closer inspection reveals that Sen. Obama is dominating Sen. McCain on the summer trail. Obama's excuse for the decline in his July appearance numbers was he was part of a hugely successful week-long CODEL trip to Europe and the Middle East. McCain's excuse was . . . well . . . hey, he's 71, it's summertime, you know what that means . . . GOLF CARTS MUTHAFUCKA!

Despite Obama playing Paris Hilton to hundreds of thousands of German "fans" he still managed to outcampaign McCain back in the states by a 29-18 campaign event margin in July. Must have been all of those Met-RX energy bars, or the Black Forest Berry Honest Tea, or maybe it's his freakishly skinny physique. McCain better be careful in August, he might get lapped by the hardest working man in show business.

The Protocol always travels fast, hard, and low to the ground.

Florida Front Pages

2008-08-02T10:50:00.012-05:00

Yesterday was a big day for the Sunshine State. Both candidates were campaigning in Florida with Sen. Obama visiting the Bay Area and Sen. McCain in Orlando. Sen. Obama was heckled at his town hall meeting in St. Petersberg by members of the International People's Democratic Uhuru Movement, a pan-African Socialist group. (The Obama campaign responded by thanking the group and blasting undecided voters inboxes with a memo titled, "Jesse's not the only one: More lefty black folks that hate me.") Meanwhile, McCain yukked it up with National Urban League in an attempt to cut into Obama's base.

The visits also happened to coincide with a report that Florida is in a recession for the first time in 16 years.

Ambinder speculated about whether today's Florida headlines would focus on economics or race and that a move in one direction would indicate whether the "race card" attack was taking hold.

The Protocol looked at today's front pages of the top five Florida newspapers (by circulation) and is ready to deliver a verdict . . .

St. Petersburg Times circ. 422,410
The Times leads with "Obama open to drilling" with a large picture of him smiling among supporters. The picture of Obama dominates a smaller picture of McCain joking with National Urban League President Marc Morial. With economics front and center particularly Obama's move toward drilling, an issue that the McCain campaign wanted to wedge between the two candidates, this front page is favorable to the Democrat. Papers commonly give favorable coverage to any visiting candidate and that phenomenon is borne out by the contrasting front pages of the St. Pete Times and the Orlando Sentinel. Obama's visit focused on the Bay Area and McCain's centered on Orlando. ADVANTAGE OBAMA

Miami Herald circ. 390,171
The Herald provides equal visual coverage under the headline "Florida Showdown." In the article, however, the body starts with racial issues, hecklers included, and this after a lede that set up the economy before the racial issues ("...offering contrasting fixes for the economy while confronting racial issues"). That subtle mismatch smacks of an editor flipping the body paragraphs before going to press. Burying the economic news after the jump: ADVANTAGE MCCAIN

Orlando Sentinel circ. 341,025
The Sentinel headlines with "MCCAIN: OBAMA NOT BEST PICK FOR BLACKS," and a picture of Sen. McCain and National Urban League President Marc Morial having a good ole time onstage. If a picture is worth 1000 words, then this one is repeating "Playing the race card? Me? John McCain? How could I?" about a hundred times. Again, the soft coverage of McCain could be due to the fact that he was the candidate with a higher profile local visit. ADVANTAGE MCCAIN

South Florida Sun-Sentinel circ. 339,728
The Sun-Sentinel had nothing on the front page about the candidates save for a small photo of McCain at the bottom in the Daily Digest referring to reader mail about his rejected NYT editorial. Above the fold they ran a story on the aforementioned recession. They were the only paper on this list with that story on the front page and the only paper with no front-page story on the candidates. ADVANTAGE OBAMA

Tampa Tribune and Times circ. 309,916
The Tampa Tribune focuses on the battle and gives equal coverage to both candidates. There is no mention of race and the text highlights the main theme of each candidate's visit: Obama's economic stimulus plan and McCain's school vouchers strategy. While the issues and the economy trump race on this page the coverage seems even-handed. NO ADVANTAGE

Sooooo, that's two for Obama and two for McCain with one tie. Looks like both campaigns are getting their message out in equal measure. Keep an eye on those Sunday papers to see if there is any movement toward race or economics.

The Protocol always buries the lede below the fold.

NM Polls: SUSA and Rasmussen in 2008

2008-08-02T09:40:00.003-05:00

All polls surveyed between 490-700 respondents. All Rasmussen polls and the SUSA 6/19 poll were of likely voters. All other SUSA polls were of registered voters. A recent Maricopa Co., AZ poll showed surprising strength for Obama in McCain's home county. If reliably Republican Arizona is showing signs of cracking, I like Obama's chances in purple New Mexico. Obama has a strong ally in Sen. Richardson, and runs well in Santa Fe and on the Reservation. New Mexico appears much safer for the Democrat than Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

Rasmussen in NH

2008-08-02T09:10:00.002-05:00

If there is any traditionally Republican state where McCain's latest attack strategy won't fly, it's New Hampshire. Keep an eye on the movement in the next set of polls from the Granite State.

Rasmussen in CO

2008-08-02T08:44:00.003-05:00

Other polls show Colorado tightening with McCain taking the lead in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Obama Pryor?

2008-08-01T15:59:00.011-05:00

Also from the NYT article:

In one class on race, he imitated the way clueless white people talked. “Why are your friends at the housing projects shooting each other?” he asked in a mock-innocent voice.

You can also hear his white-people voice when he says "dollar bills" in this now-suddenly-important clip from Springfield, MO on Wednesday.

It's not quite Richard Pryor or Dave Chappelle, but still . . . pretty good.

The October Protocol only speaks in a white-people voice.

Professor Obama

2008-08-01T13:27:00.005-05:00

The NYT ran a long feature Wednesday about the twelve years Barack Obama spent teaching law at the University of Chicago. The paper’s framing of the story is that Obama kept himself aloof from the Chicago faculty, made his political ambitions known, and shrewdly kept his positions on policy questions such as affirmative action and government regulation close to the chest.

“He surfaced all the competing points of view on [controversial quota-queen Lani] Guinier’s proposals with total neutrality and equanimity,” says Prof. David Franklin, sounding a familiar theme about Obama that he excels at dispassionate analysis, with a gift for empathizing with both sides of hot button issues. The flipside to this gift, of course, is that it leaves people heavily invested in academic and intellectual camps wondering whose side he’s really on.

My take on the article's portrait of Obama as a professor, and the insights that can be gleaned from his Constitutional Law exams and answer keys, is that they confirm my view of him as a thoughtful and careful legal mind more interested at getting at the heart of policy disputes than in resolving them. His course materials emphasize the realities of racism, disenfranchisement, and poverty--and the distortions those realities have on a democratic political process--while at the same time acknowledging the failures of heavy-handed attempts to fix them from the top down. One question from a 1996 exam asked students to analyze two hypothetical proposals by a black mayor, in a heavily segregated city split 50-50 between blacks and whites with a significant history of institutional racism in the power structure, to ensure that the awarding of construction contracts and the hiring of firemen better reflect the city's racial composition. Both proposals are facially race-neutral, with the construction proposal skewing toward companies based in low-income neighborhoods and the fireman proposal doing away with a (possibly culturally-biased) written exam.

Obama's answer key to both questions isn't earth-shattering: he's looking for students to analyze the right cases (Aderand, Croson, Washington v. Davis, etc.) and put forth good arguments about the level of scrutiny such proposals would face in court and the likelihood of surviving. What strikes me though is his understanding that it's not enough to believe that the mayor is right, or that his proposals are a good idea--you have to convince a court that the proposals play by the rules the Supreme Court has set down regarding discriminatory intent, narrow tailoring to a compelling state interest, and so forth. He seems keenly aware that knowing your arguments are the right ones is not enough in a sprawling, diverse democracy: you need to take seriously the opposing views, pare the issues down to their cores, search for the common ground, and move from there.

Lawyers are trained to be advocates, to take a goal (my client's best interest) and pursue any and all threads that lead to that goal while ignoring, minimizing, or attacking those that don't. Obama's not an advocate. He's a balancer. He doesn't make a stand and then use whatever arguments happen to be convenient to defend that stand til the crack of doom--he weighs competing sides, acknowledges the impossibility of always being right, and looks for common ground. So when Richard Epstein complains that "he’s always been a thoughtful listener and questioner, but he’s never stepped up to the plate and taken full swings," he means Obama's never planted his flag in the sands of an idea and loaded his guns to defend it, right or wrong.

Which is exactly what voters sick of pig-headed, reflexive partisanship find so refreshing.

By way of reflexive balance, the October Protocol notes the extensive use of the words "I" and "me" in Obama's memos and communications to his law classes.

Culture Wars Part III: The Turd Blossoms Again

2008-07-31T17:31:00.006-05:00

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, and Andrea Mitchell go toe to toe in this remarkable interview.

As Ambinder notes the action starts two and a half minutes in and continues right up till the end.

I wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the media's love affair with Sen. McCain. They've always appreciated his candor and his open-bus policy but this recent string of ads has shown that he, and Davis, are running Karl Rove's third presidential campaign.

The choice to align himself with Bush four years ago was McCain's critical mistake. Had he maintained his maverick persona, channeled the animosity he must have felt toward Bush/Rove and Co. after the South Carolina primary in 2000, he could have remained ever the straight talker, and run as a genuine alternative to the Bush White House. Instead he continues to follow the spirit of the hug by hiring a Rove lackey to run his day-to-day (Steve Schmidt) and allowing his campaign to continue to wage Rove's culture war.

The media has begun to realize that their proud maverick has become a puppet. John McCain might not lead the country like George W. Bush, but he is certainly campaigning like him. That would be a great plan, I mean, GW has won two in a row and if it ain't broke, . . . there must be nothing to fix, right?.

Rasmussen in OH

2008-07-29T20:00:00.003-05:00

The McCain campaign has to be encouraged by this latest poll in what is developing into a must-win state for him.

Rasmussen in NV

2008-07-29T19:43:00.002-05:00

The Breach is back after a two-week vacation. The previously posted state graphs have been updated with the latest data points.

Buckethead, Bumblefoot, and Brain

2008-07-29T16:25:00.012-05:00

Not the title of a Roald Dahl book. Sadly.

An article in last week's NYT led me to contemplate, as I often do, the legacy of Guns n' Roses. Apparently, Axl and whoever else is serving time in what surely is the dreariest gig in rock are releasing a new song--obscurely titled "Shackler's Revenge"--in September, as a track on the Rock Band 2 video game. The announced deal between Microsoft, MTV, and Universal points to the new tactics music labels are using to counter the staggering fall in record sales since music downloading and copying software became widely used. I had always thought that the fun in playing Guitar Hero and games like it was rocking along to songs you already know; now, apparently, it's in paying for and consuming new songs by utterly irrelevant bands. What's next, Chris Brown's Doublemint Gum jingle on Guitar Hero 4?

But . . . Guns n' Roses. Sorry, "Guns n' Roses," which now means Axl Rose and random dudes from Nine Inch Nails, The Replacements, and Axl's hometown. Not to mention Buckethead, Bumblefoot, and Brain--as if dudes with cool nicknames could replace Slash and Izzy. Still working on that fucking record, ten years later.

Guns n' Roses was once the greatest rock n' roll band in the world. Raw, edgy, and punk as fuck in that glam way, back when those two things were really kind of the same thing, they channelled the Stones and Aerosmith but made them dirtier, meaner, smellier. Appetite For Destruction is a nearly flawless punk album--even though Slash and Izzy rip blues riffs that Greg Ginn could never have learned, Axl's snarl was scarier and his tales of the urban underbelly are more gripping than anything Henry Rollins ever barked incoherently into a microphone. Even the power ballad is dark: Slash's bitter solo over the long minor-key coda to "Sweet Child O' Mine" turns the world's shittiest love poem into some kind of nightmare.

Of course, Guns n' Roses then became the worst band in the world--or rather, the exemplar of everything that sucks about rock n' roll. By the time Axl was turning into Brian Wilson by way of Howard Hughes, they'd already released an unforgivably sloppy acoustic half-album (featuring the unforgivably stupid "One In A Million") and perhaps the ultimate paradigm of the over-indulgent, massively pretentious double album: the Use Your Illusions, which sure rocked back in 1991 but sure seem pretty unlistenable now. "Get In The Ring?" Really? Two versions of "Don't Cry"? Those terrible Dylan and McCartney covers? November Fucking Rain? The grungy assholes who ruled the Sunset Strip and out-Motleyed the Crue would have thrown a Jack Daniels bottle at the TV screen and trashed all their gear if they could have seen the embarassments they'd become.

What's sad about it is that by the time Axl famously threatened Kurt Cobain at the 1992 MTV Music Video Awards, he had completed the transformation Cobain himself refused to ever make. A punk kid, hating his shitty Indiana town, getting beaten up by the jocks and robbed by the black dudes, moving to L.A. for his shot at some kind of redemptive rock and roll glory--and then he's Peter Frampton, he's Rod Stewart in the 70s, he's Phil Spector, he's writing suck-my-cock songs and changing his costume every other tune, blowing all his money on pig roasts and music videos and cocaine and firing Slash. Oh, and getting Sebastian Bach to be his spokesman--just like Bob Dylan and Johnny Cash!

FUN TEST: How long you can watch this clip of Axl N' Chumps playing "Welcome to the Jungle" in 2002?

I lasted twenty seconds or so before turning it off in disgust, which puts it right up there on the Unwatchability Index with George W. Bush and 2 Girls 1 Cup.

The October Protocol does not recommend that you spend any time looking for the actual 2Girls1Cup video.

Swingtown, USA: Clearwater, FL

2008-07-15T11:22:00.013-05:00

Welcome:

Clearwater is the county seat of Pinellas County, located on the Pinellas Peninsula between Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. The town is named after a fresh water spring flowing from near where City Hall is located today. Pinellas is named for the Spanish Punta Pinal, or "Point of Pines."

The city is the smallest of the three principal cities in the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater metropolitan area. The Tampa metro area with a population of 2.7 million people is the second largest in Florida and the third largest in the Southeastern US.

By the Numbers:

According to the US Census, the 2006 population estimate for Clearwater was 107,742, down from 108,787 in 2000. The 2006 estimated population for Pinellas County was 924,413, up from 921,482 in 2000. Clearwater is 84% white, and 10% African-American. Persons of Hispanic or Latino descent make up 9% of the population. In 2006, the per capita income for the city was $25,126.

Bush won Pinellas County by 246 votes in 2004: 225,686 to Kerry's 225,460. In Pinellas County's Republican Primary, McCain won 37.5% of the vote, Romney won 30%, Giuliani won 16.5%, Huckabee won 10.5%, and Paul won 4%. In the invalid Democratic Primary Clinton won 52% to Obama's 33%, with Edwards tallying 12%.

Presently in Pinellas County there are 235,960 registered Democrats, 233,708 registered Republicans, and 149,274 voters registered as Other. In 2004, there were 223,544 registered Democrats, 231,652 registered Republicans, and 135,793 registered Other.

Fun Facts!

The area was originally settled in 1835 when Fort Harrison was built overlooking Clearwater Harbor to serve as an outpost for the US Army during the Seminole Wars.

During WWII, Clearwater became a major training base for troops headed to Europe and the Pacific. Most of the hotels in the area served as barracks for the troops and nighttime blackouts were common to confuse potential enemy bombers.

Clearwater Beach is consistently ranked among the top beaches in the nation.

The Belleview Biltmore Resort and Spa, built in 1897, is the oldest occupied wooden building still used for its original purpose. And it has ghosts.

The worldwide "spiritual headquarters" of the Church of Scientology is in Clearwater. This international HQ, founded in the late 70s, is known as Flag Land Base in the official parlance of the pseudo-religion.

Evel Knievel lived in Clearwater when he died and Hulk Hogan maintains an estate in nearby Belleair a beach house in Clearwater Beach.

Your local news source: Clearwater Citizen, Clearwater Gazette

The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Pinellas County precincts in the 2004 General Election.

Precincts	Vote Margin (in # of votes)
St. Petersburg 252	Bush +1
Clearwater 503	Kerry +2
Clearwater 603	Bush +2
Pinellas Park 191	Kerry +3
Clearwater 636	Kerry +3

Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.

Iowa Polling: SUSA and Rasmussen 2008

2008-07-15T01:04:00.004-05:00

SUSA polled registered voters until the June poll, when it polled likely voters. Polls surveyed between 528 and 600 respondents.

All Rasmussen polls surveyed 500 likely voters.

Among the Bush states, Iowa is the most likely to be flipped by Obama. Obama has treated Iowa as his second home in his campaign thus far. It was the key to his primary victory over Sen. Clinton. His consistent lead there reflects the fact that 177 of his 686 campaign appearances (26%) have been in the Hawkeye State. The next closest state in total campaign appearances is New Hampshire with 52.