Peter Bain Forex Trading Commentary

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2007-09-13T08:52:00.000-07:00

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Picture-perfect head and shoulders pattern

2007-09-04T10:42:00.001-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

We at www.forexmentor.com sincerely hope that you had a great Labor Day weekend unless, of course, you live in a country where it is celebrated at a different time of the year – like Australia, China, New Zealand, etc.!

Courtesy Christoph Lahrs, there is a picture-perfect head and shoulders pattern forming on the USD/CHF daily chart. Further, if you look closely, you will observe positive divergence on MACD histogram to price. And, if you look even more closely, price is above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour, 1 hour, 15 minute and 5 minute charts – at least as at 8:30 pm ET Monday, September 3/07.

The head of the H&S pattern is at the 200 EMA, but price is below the 200 EMA on the weekly chart – so, there is the possibility that price will advance from here. But, let’s not forget that the overall trend is down. Any trades to the long side from here are counter the big trend, and should be taken with extreme caution.

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Effectiveness of the 200 EMA

2007-08-23T08:24:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

All this week, I have been focusing on the effectiveness of the 200 EMA. More specifically, I have been working with the hourly, 15 minute, 5 minute and 1 minute charts. As an example, where you see price below the 200 EMA on the top three charts, but above it on the 1 minute, you know where price is headed – down!

This is probably one of the most powerful trading strategies you can add to your arsenal. I have talked about it this week in relation to the USD/CAD pair, and have illustrated its effectiveness in the AM Review section at www.forexmentor.com over and over again.

That aside, we are still technically in an uptrend for that pair, but we need to see some further proof that a bona fide bottom is in fact in place on the daily chart. We are experiencing a lot of weakness right now, where I would have expected strength – given the extent of the credit crunch initiated by the sub-prime mess south of the 49.

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Lesson for the day

2007-08-21T08:28:00.000-07:00

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After last week’s spectacular rout in the carry trade, and its spill-over effect on the ten or so associated currencies, we seem to be settling into a period of relative calm (before the storm?) after subsequent retracements.

Take the USD/CAD pair, for example. The demand (or support) trendline in place on the daily chart is holding quite nicely, as price plays with the 30 EMA. So, technically, from a position trading point-of-view, we’re still in an uptrend. That said, we have had some nice day trading opportunities to the down-side (read, short trades) – just simply by paying attention to the relationship of price to the 200 EMA in the various timeframes.

By that I mean for a good part of Sunday and Monday (at least up to the point of writing this piece on Monday, as at 8:27 pm ET) price was below the 200 EMA on the hourly, 15 minute, and 5 minute charts and, every time price poked its head above the 200 EMA on the 1 minute chart, it represented a good short trade (like whacking a mole every time it rears its head above ground).

So, lesson for the day: Whenever you see a definable trade in place, with price respecting the 200 EMA on the higher-level charts, look for price to behave differently on the 1 minute chart, and take appropriate action. Simple as 1-2-3, or should we say Ka-Ching – take it to the bank! Stay tuned at www.forexmentor.com for more of these gems.

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Most currencies are in a free-fall

2007-08-16T08:29:00.000-07:00

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All of a sudden, traders love the greenback, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals – just raw emotion. They have also rekindled their love for the yen, now that the carry trade is suspect, in light of the so-called credit crunch in the U.S. and beyond (as a result of the sub-prime debacle and its tentacles into other markets and financial instruments). Most of the other currencies are in a free-fall, including the Canadian dollar. Who could have guessed, eh?

Traders are seeing the greenback as a safe haven, as the dust settles from the sub-prime mess. A drop in U.S. trade deficit numbers yesterday also gave a lift to the greenback. The financial markets are facing their worst shakeup in about five years. It’s about time. Traders are looking for a safe haven, and one of those hiding places is the greenback, which all of a sudden doesn’t look all that bad as a place to park money in this blustering storm. Traders are unwinding their riskier equity and bond bets, and favoring U.S. Treasuries instead. All of this turmoil is offering up some great trading opportunities for forex traders – day and position traders alike.

Most are short situations, except for the USD/CAD pair (my favorite), which is a recommended buy by the Danish Yske Bank. Add to that the fact that the commercial traders (Big Dogs) are extremely short the CAD, as well as they are with light sweet crude oil, and you have one heck of a good mix for further price increases for the pair. Brought to you by www.forexmentor.com, where serious forex traders hang out.

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The bank’s recommendations

2007-08-14T07:20:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

According to the Danish Yske Bank, they expect the USD, CHF, and JPY to strengthen, and theAUD, NZD, CAD, and in part EUR to weaken. They recommend to sell EUR/USD, USD/JPY,EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and to buy USD/CAD. Who could have guessed ontheir last recommendation? I’ve been looking for a bottom on that pair for quite some time now.

The bank’s recommendations come on the heels of credit defaults impacting the markets,and traders taking flight from risk – hence, collapsing the carry trade. The markets haven’tseen this kind of nervousness since 9/11. Short rates have increased, with nobody wanting toissue credit, and banks supporting the financial markets with liquidity – this to ensure theirstability. It should be further noted that the Danish Yske Bank is also recommending the EUR/GBP pair as a long hold. Stay tuned for further developments at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

Thanks to Christoph Lahrs for providing the information for this news release.

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Commentary on the latest trading buzz

2007-08-09T08:45:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

There hasn’t been any significant movement in the Canadian dollar recently – this in anticipation of jobs data due to come out Friday. The currency is trading in a tight range, with rates likely toremain unchanged in the U.S., and the Fed’s determination to fight inflation. It is widely expected that the employment report for July will come in way under the June number. Any new credit news would also have an impact on where the loonie goes from here.

The daily chart for the USD/CAD pair seems to be holding its own for the time being, with price having retraced some of its recent gains – to the tune of perhaps 50%. We are either headed for a firm bottoming out formation on that chart, or else the pair will collapse in a blaze of glory. Expert opinion has it that the Canadian dollar is worth 91 cents on the U.S. dollar – not where it’s at now. Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair is in full flight, having put in a 2/3 retracement on the daily chart. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs are in a holding pattern, after quite a swoon in price. Get all the latest trading buzz at http://www.forexmentor.com/.

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Times for good trading opportunities for the astute trader

2007-08-07T07:32:00.000-07:00

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Holy guacamole! EEWWW! Want some bad news? Well, here it is – lower commodity prices, including oil and natural gas; soft economic news – weak July jobs report – unemployment up; tightening credit conditions: 2 hedge funds toast at Bear Stearns - read: credit concerns – credit crunch – worries about credit risk - traders in flight-to-safety – fixed-income markets worst in 22 years. Okay, had enough? Let’s move on to some more interesting stuff.

One of our members trades the AUD/JPY pair, exclusively during the Asian session, starting around supper time ET. He specializes in that pair, and does quite well at it. One of the things you will notice, more often than not, is the fact that price does a u-e (i.e., directional shift, or swing trade) in and around 18:00 hours.

Here, we’re talking about the end of the New York session, and the start of the Asian session – in other words, a change in trader sentiment. Market opens and closes represent good trading opportunities for the astute trader, who is out to grab his/her daily allotment of pips.

Other times revolve around the London session, as well as others too. So, keep a watchful eye out for these opening and closing times, so that you too can grab your fair share. Stay tuned for more of these goodies at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

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Good trading opportunities identified

2007-08-02T08:34:00.000-07:00

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Data has shown that the Canadian economy grew at a slightly slower pace than expected in May. This was a low-side surprise which, on top of all the other factors talked about recently, was Canadian-dollar negative. It should be noted that the economic reading in April was no better – it was flat.

There are concerns that the world economy is slowing, and that there will be a spill-over effect on commodity prices. Hence, commodity-sensitive currencies, such as the Canadian and Australian dollars, are being affected adversely. The Canadian dollar hit a 30-year high of 96.74 cents last week and, since then, has dropped three percent.

The Canadian and Australian dollar pairs (USD/CAD and AUD/USD) represent good trading opportunities to the long and short sides respectively. The New Zealand currency – the kiwi – is also a good short candidate. In today’s AM Review, Thursday, August 2/07, I will be exploring the Australian dollar situation in depth. You won’t want to miss my detailed technical analysis. We give you only the best at http://www.forexmentor.com/.

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The USD/CAD pair rose the most in 13 months

2007-07-31T08:38:00.000-07:00

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Last Thursday, traders unwound risky bets on currencies where interest rates may be headed higher – this in response to declining global stocks. As a consequence, the Canadian dollar fell the most in 13 months. Translation: The USD/CAD pair rose the most in 13 months.

The Canadian dollar was one of 10 major currencies to drop versus the yen. Traders have borrowed in Japan to buy assets in countries such as Canada, where rates are higher than the benchmark rate of 0.5% in Japan. This is known as the ‘Carry Trade.’ Traders became risk averse, abandoned those carry trades, and bought back yen, as stocks fell, and speculation mounted that losses would climb from sub-prime mortgages.

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Times of the day to watch out for

2007-07-26T08:29:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

One of the things you should always be on the lookout for are those strategic points in time, wherein price will more often than not want to reverse its course. One such time is the window of opportunity anywhere from 10:30 am ET to noon ET, which is of course, the London close. Take that timeframe for the GBP/USD pair Wednesday, July 25. Price had been falling up to that time, and then bounced of the 200 EMA on the hourly chart, coincident with positive MACD divergence forming on the 15 minute chart. Not only that, but a hammer ended the run down on the hourly chart, together with a quasi-hammer on the 15 minute chart. Thus, the uptrend remained intact, and you were able to catch that turnaround. Ka-ching!

To further add to the story, other pairs, like the EUR/USD, USD/CAD and the AUD/USD also reversed course in unison – also at the London close. So, if you’re looking to grab your 20 pips on any given day, check this idea out. Also, watch for turning points at 3 am ET (London open), 8 am ET (New York open), 8:30 am ET (news), 5 pm ET (New York close), 6 pm ET (Asian open). For more of these juicy gems, that’s what www.forexmentor.com is all about.

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Commentary on the Canadian dollar

2007-07-24T08:39:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The outlook for Ontario is gloomy – Ontario is Canada’s largest province. It makes up 40% of the Canadian economy. The strong Canadian dollar is killing manufacturing in that province. There is an expected housing slowdown. Who could have guessed? Low inflation data is bringing into question the notion of any further rate hikes.

The Canadian dollar’s ascent over the past three weeks has been the result of a weaker US$ - not strong economic fundamentals. It is expected that the Canadian dollar will do the ‘Whack-a-Mole’ thing – just poke its head above US96cents, and get beaten back down. Hence, the creation of a new indicator – called the ‘Whack-a- Mole Indicator.’

You heard it here first folks. Translation: The Canadian dollar could be topping out – i.e., the USD/CAD pair could finally be bottoming out. Hmmmmm… Stay tuned at www.forexmentor.com for the latest developments in this pair. Oh, did I forget to mention that positive divergence has formed on the daily chart for this pair? That’s bullish, by the way!

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Commentary on the USD/JPY

2007-07-19T08:37:00.001-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I continue to beat the USD/JPY drum, thanks to Chris Classen, who first brought this pair to our attention, and I continue to preach the mantra ‘Sell the rallies in this downtrending market.’ Keep your eyes on the 200 EMA on the lower-level charts (hourly, 15 minute), and look for overbought situations. That strategy has proven to be quite effective, and profitable, since I started beating this drum this week.

‘Overboughtness’ can easily be detected by looking at price in relation to the 200 EMA, and/or observing the attitude of an oscillator (say, Williams %R, for example). Once a currency pair develops a trend (in this case, down), the rest remains quite easy – just play the trend, and don’t fight it. Price action on the daily chart Is below the 30 EMA, and MACD is below the waterline – and below its trigger line, with good angle and separation. Translation: Watch out below!

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Commentary on the USD/JPY and USD/CAD

2007-07-17T08:38:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The USD/JPY pair continues to look attractive from a short opportunity perspective. This pair was brought to our attention by Chris Classen last week. Even today – Monday, July 16/07 – the daily chart shows price action below the 30 EMA (which has turned down). And, MACD on that chart is below its trigger line, and below the waterline – with good angle and separation. The 200 EMA is trending down on the hourly and 15 minute charts. Translation: Watch out below!

On another front, the USD/CAD pair is tanking – much to my chagrin. I’m out. A bad call on my part. That said, the Big Dogs are extremely short the Canadian dollar (i.e., long this pair). In due course, the pair will rise, but I’ve stopped guessing for the time being. I’ll wait for bottom, whenever that finally takes place. Stay tuned for all the latest news in this regard and others at forexmentor.com.

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Commentary on the USD/JPY

2007-07-12T08:35:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

“I've been watching the USD/JPY pair, and other Yen cross pairs for a while, looking for a top, and it looks like the USD/JPY has finally formed the long awaited 1-2-3 top. I'm normally very hesitant to ever go long on the Yen, since yield seems to be king in the FOREX market, but I've gone short on this one, and have already made some nice profits. MACD is going down, and price action has broken a long-term trendline. I really like the looks of this.” - says Chris Classen, one of our valued members at forexmentor.com, in relation to the daily chart for the pair.

I wholeheartedly agree with Chris. As a matter of fact, the most recent Tom DeMark trendline, at that chart level, has been broken, with price now well south of it. A Joe Cheung price projection sees price conceivably seeking out approximately 120 in the near term. A 1-2-3 top price projection says almost the same thing.

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-07-10T08:32:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

While we all fish for bottom on the USD/CAD pair, we cannot lose sight of the fact that moving averages can be deceptive, especially at market turning points. Case in point: If you had relied on the Guppy System during the last turn in this pair (south of the 1-2-3 top, back in March), you would have missed the turn – if you were solely focused on the weekly chart. So, you have to not only keep an eye at that level for the overall trend, but also evaluate what the other indicators are telling you, and what you see on the daily chart.

Once you detect that a pair is, in fact, turning the corner, you can then execute your position trades off the hourly chart to get a better entry point, with limited risk. Zac Zacharia addressed this concept in my presentation of his method in the June 20/07 AM Review at http://www.forexmentor.com/. Each Wednesday, I present a new lesson on things we have learned from previous submissions. Don’t miss the next one this week!

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Commentary on the GBP/AUD

2007-07-05T08:29:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

GBP/AUD: Weekly Chart (Courtesy Richard and Patricia Gaulli, long-standing members of www.forexmentor.com) – “The EMAs are now stacked for short, after experiencing a Death Cross of the 50 and 100. Both BBs are now headed south, and price has been contained inside of the lower band. This past week’s candle closed as a classic bullish spinning top. MACD is very o/s and flat, with the Histogram losing strength. STO is on its way up, from being very o/s, having crossed its trigger. %R is going extremely o/s once again.”

Price action on the daily chart for this pair is clearly trending down, as evidenced by the 30 EMA. The 200 EMA is also trending down on the hourly, 15 and five minute charts. There is no doubt where this pair is headed.

Members of Forexmentor.com are fortunate to have Richard and Patricia submit their weekly analysis of the forex pairs, so that members can pick and choose which pair(s) they wish to trade. The analysis is impeccable, and leaves no doubt as to where price action is headed in each case.

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-07-03T08:33:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, the low that was established 22 candles ago on the daily chart for the USD/CAD pair was taken out one candle ago on the same chart – quite disconcerting, were it not for the fact that it was taken out by a rather long price rejection candle, called a hammer. So, that’s both bad news and good news. Further, the hammer’s lower shadow (or wick) exceeded the lower Bollinger band. When you see that happen, you can reasonably expect price action to head for the other band (upper, in this case).

Also, consider the fact that MACD is still above its trigger line, and its trend is still up – headed towards the waterline. What does this all mean? Well, I hope it means that everything is okay. Just kidding folks. It looks like the bottom is holding, but we’re not out of the woods yet. I need to see some strength from here before I’ll relax. The fundamentals would seem to support that the pair should advance from here. What is causing uncertainty in this market is the prospect of tightening on the part of the BoC, but I believe that such a possibility has already been factored into price action. Stay tuned at forexmentor.com for further commentary on this pair.

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Commentary on the AUD/USD and USD/CAD

2007-06-28T08:32:00.000-07:00

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Christoph Lahrs, one of our long-standing members at www.forexmentor.com, has been waiting for the AUD/USD to go down. He thinks we are topping out. “There is plenty of great divergence going on MACD and Stochastics on the daily and 4 hour charts.” “This afternoon (today, Tuesday, 6-26-07), the drop is being blamed on dropping of commodity prices. This should also be good for the CAD trade.” Of course, I’ve been saying for the past couple of weeks that I think we are at a bottom on the daily chart for the USD/CAD pair. The fundamentals seem to support such a notion.

The only thing left that could potentially affect price action for the pair would be the rumoured rate increases that the BoC has to decide on. The Governor of that central bank is getting a lot of heat to keep a lid on rates. But, he maintains that his sole objective is to keep inflation in check – manufacturers be dammed. We’ll see how resolute he is in his convictions. Either way, the market seems to have already discounted the possibility of any tightening on his part. So, I don’t know what else could put a damper on the recent strength in the USD/CAD pair.

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-06-26T08:22:00.000-07:00

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The USD/CAD pair is holding its own – still trending up! The Governor of the Bank of Canada said recently that the Canadian dollar (loonie) had risen too far, too fast – not supported by fundamentals. The film industry is hurting because of the high Canadian dollar, and nowpressure is being brought to bear on the Governor (Dodge) to not raise interest rates. That would further exacerbate the problem. Gotta get out of Dodge.

A common sense trendline underneath price action on the daily chart for this pair clearly shows price action on the rise, with no let-up in sight. Either of two things have to happen now – price has to break the 30 EMA convincingly, or price has to retest the low formed by the hammer 17 candles ago on the daily chart. I’m still of the opinion that we’ve seen bottom on this pair. Only time will tell, but I’m betting I’m right, and have put my money where my mouth is.

Stay tuned for more juicy tidbits on this pair at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-06-21T08:30:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

The USD/CAD pair is pretty much on a roller coaster ride – but holding its own on the daily chart. It looks like it’s trying to put in a bottom there. From a day trading perspective, it has become a tad challenging to predict its next move. That’s okay if you’re position trading with a wide stop (75-150 pips), but you have to be super careful with those intraday swings.

Right now, as I look at the hourly and 15 min. charts, MACD is trending up on the hourly, price is above the 200 EMA on the hourly, price is above the 200 EMA on the 15 min., MACD is above the waterline on the 15 min., and RSI is above its waterline (the 50 level). The only caveat on the 15 min. is slow Stochastics being overbought, and turning down. All of this translates into an up-trending market for the USD/CAD pair on an intra-day basis.

My commentary here is as at 10 pm ET Wed., Jun. 20/07. Stay tuned for more price action news at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-06-19T08:29:00.000-07:00

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I’m on my hands and knees, hoping and praying that we’re at a bottom on the USD/CAD pair. No – just kidding folks. I don’t throw any Hail Mary passes. But, I do like what I see on the daily chart for this pair. It is basing nicely, with MACD having punched up through its trigger line, and trending up at a nice angle – with good angle and separation between it and its trigger line. Am I calling a bottom yet? No! But, what I am suggesting is that you keep a close eye on this pair, just in case.

I read an interesting article recently quoting the Bank of Canada Governor Dodge, wherein he said the fundamentals to not support the loonie having risen so far so fast. And, it would appear as though that any notion of an interest rate hike has already been factored into price action. Translation: I personally can see upside potential for this pair in the near future. But, as Steve Nison would say, even monkies fall out of trees sometimes. Stay tuned for further news on this pair at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

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Commentary on the AUD/USD and USD/CAD

2007-06-14T08:33:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

I would keep an eye on the AUD/USD pair. Looking at the daily chart, price has exceeded the upper Bollinger band, and Stochastics is reading way overbought-to-trending down. Usually, when price exceeds a BB, it wants to seek out the other band – in this case, the lower one. It could also be that MACD is trying to put in negative divergence to price – yet to be confirmed. All of this said, the overall trend, as reflected by the 200 EMA, is still up. That does not mean to say we cannot get a trade-able retracement.

On another front, the hourly chart for the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of gaining momentum. Of course, we’re all looking for a turnaround in this pair, but it is far too early to make such a call. Successful traders spend an inordinate amount of time proving tops and bottoms. That’s where the real art of trading the forex enters the picture. Get the scoop at: http://www.forexmentor.com/

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-06-12T08:23:00.000-07:00

Forexmentor.com Forex Trading Price Action

Well, okay, have we hit bottom on the USD/CAD pair yet? Looks like it’s trying to bottom out. We have good support at the 0560 level – since June 4th. Could be a good bottoming out process.Steve Nison said he likes that kind of solid foundation. We’ll see.

Here’s what the local rag (National Post) had to say: “We’ve had some weakening in the domestic data, some weakening in commodity prices, we’ve seen a somewhat firmer U.S. dollar, and an abrupt increase in U.S. interest rates. And, yet, the loonie is very much hanging in, despite these negative influences. Brought to you by www.forexmentor.com.

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Commentary on the USD/CAD

2007-06-07T08:24:00.000-07:00

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It sure looks like the USD/CAD is trying to base on the hourly chart – as at mid-day Wednesday, June 6/07. We’ve had a couple days where the 0560 level has held in terms of support. I’m sure Steve Nison would agree based on what he had to say in his two recent webinars for Forexmentor.com – which were great, by the way. A hammer ended the swoon in price June 3rd. That said, the EMAs (50, 100, and 200) are all stacked favoring the continuation of the down-trend. Let’s see if the aforementioned support holds.

We’re all looking for a turnaround in this pair – at least the fundamentals seem to support that notion, depending upon who you talk to. The Canadian economy really starts to suffer, as its currency rises – translation: USD/CAD falls. When the turn comes, it will represent a golden trading moment. We’ll see.

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