Detroit Tigers Thoughts

Rule 6.05 (k)

2009-07-03T22:37:00.001-04:00

In running the last half of the distance from home base to first base, while the ball is being fielded to first base, he runs outside (to the right of) the three-foot line, or inside (to the left of) the foul line, and in the umpire’s judgment in so doing interferes with the fielder taking the throw at first base, in which case the ball is dead; except that he may run outside (to the right of) the three-foot line or inside (to the left of) the foul line to avoid a fielder attempting to field a batted ball;

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2008/official_rules//06_the_batter.pdf

Interpret as you will...

$13.84 Million

2009-06-26T22:39:00.002-04:00

Nate Robertson has always been a favorite of mine. He's been a great Tiger in the community and was an underrated pitcher in his early years. Unfortunately, he can no longer retire Major League hitters at a suitable rate.

In this day and age of the seven-man bullpen and endangered pitchers, a black hole cannot be hidden in the bullpen. This is evidenced by the fact that Robertson has been brought into games twice this week with narrow leads. While it hasn't come back to bite the Tigers, it could in the near future.

The $13.84 million dollars that Robertson has left on his contract are on the plate. The Tigers should be hungry enough to simply eat it already. It's not going to go anywhere else.

Updated Elias Rankings

2009-06-26T18:59:00.001-04:00

Can be found here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/elias-rankings.html

Tweeting now...

2009-06-23T20:45:00.002-04:00

http://twitter.com/ebajek85

I'll try to keep up with in-game commentary and Tigers randomness...

Refused Optional Assignment

2009-06-21T20:14:00.004-04:00

A lot of doubt has been raised over whether the Tigers would still owe a player money if they refused assignment. Let's apply this to the case of Nate Robertson, a player who is clearly taking up space on the roster and is incapable of giving the Tigers high leverage innings.

Let's take a look at the CBA:

I want to break Article XIX A (2) down line by line to attempt to answer this question.

The contract of a Player with five or more years of Major
League service, not including service while on the Military List (or
seven or more years of Major League service, including service
while on the Military List), shall not be assigned otherwise than to
another Major League Club, without the Player’s written consent.

As this applies to Robertson, because his service time exceeds five years, he needs to provide written consent to be sent on an optional assignment, despite the fact that he has options remaining.

Not earlier than 4 days prior to the contemplated date of
an assignment requiring the Player’s consent under subparagraph
(a) above, or 8 days, if the Player has no options remaining or if
the assignment is during the period from the close of the championship
season to the opening of spring training, the Club shall
give written notice to the Player, with a copy to the Association,
which shall advise the Player that he may (i) consent to the
assignment, (ii) refuse the assignment or (iii) elect to become a
free agent.

There are a few things in this sentence. First, the Tigers would need to submit the paperwork to Robertson four days before he is to be optioned. Second, this is different for players without options, but it doesn't matter in that case, because those players are typically designated for assignment. The final clause of this sentence is crucial. The player can either consent to the assignment, refuse the assignment, or elect to become a free agent.

REFUSING AN ASSIGNMENT DOES NOT MEAN THE PLAYER IS ELECTING FREE AGENCY. HE IS JUST STAYING ON THE MAJOR LEAGUE ROSTER!

That is important, thanks in large part to XIX A (2c), which led to some confusion.

A Player who elects to become a free agent under this
paragraph (2) shall immediately be eligible to negotiate and contract
with any Club without any restrictions or qualifications.
Such Player shall not be entitled to receive termination pay. Such
a free agent shall receive transportation and travel expenses in the
same manner as he would if he had been unconditionally released
except that he shall be limited to receiving travel expenses to his
new club if he reports to it directly, provided such expenses are
less than to his home city.

If a player opts for free agency, the team is no longer on the hook for his salary. This is not the case for a refused assignment. Because refusing an assignment and opting for free agency are different cases for players with options, the loss of termination pay does apply when the player decides he wants to stay on the Major League roster.

If the Tigers try to option Nate Robertson, he has the right to stay on the roster and still get paid. This is likely what happened.

Elias Rankings Moving

2009-06-13T00:34:00.001-04:00

They'll be on mlbtraderumors.com from here on out. I'm sure if you found this site, you know all about MLB Trade Rumors.

Testing Again

2009-06-11T21:20:00.006-04:00

I'm not willing to say these are final. I want people to point out any errors that they see. These errors could include.

Players being too high, too low (I've noticed a lot of statistical import bugs, but think I've caught them all)
Free Agency status marked incorrectly.
Formatting errors
Injured players being ranked too low. Activated, formerly injured players, ranked too high.

Here are known issues:

Chris Snelling is listed as a Starting Pitcher.
Left/Right formatting issues
NL Infielders are missing their team
Tomo Ohka's stats did not import correctly.

Reader-mentioned issues:

Willie Bloomquist and Noah Lowry incorrectly listed as free agents.

Please fire away. I'd like it if these rankings weren't cited, as they could be incorrect. I just need help debugging. These rankings are through Wednesday June 10.

Rankings 061109 Publish at Scribd or explore others:

I'm an Idiot

2009-06-07T00:48:00.003-04:00

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/12/andrew-friedman-takes-dd-to-cleaners.html

When in the history of anything has anybody been more wrong in predicting something? And Matt Joyce is red hot...

Elias Update

2009-06-03T19:54:00.002-04:00

I've been pretty busy of late, but I have the roster issues fixed. I've got one more hurdle to take care of, and that's outputting the rankings in an efficient manner, and we should be good to go. In the meantime, if you are curious about any players in particular, shoot me an email and I'll get you an estimate of where they stand.

Testing...

2009-05-24T09:04:00.002-04:00

ALC0809

Publish at Scribd or explore others:

A few comments.

Dioner Navarro is NOT a free agent. There's a glitch in the code that I'll look into.
Max Ramirez is not on the active roster and should not be listed. I'm still working on finding a more suitable roster source, but nothing has worked quite yet. CNNSI still has Nick Adenhart listed, but they still list DL'ed players with their rosters, which gives them a step up on more accurate sources like MLB.com.

I'll admit, I laughed

2009-05-19T21:21:00.001-04:00

"I wonder if Marlon Byrd tweets"
-Mario

What he said

2009-05-16T09:08:00.001-04:00

I've been meaning to do this for a while, but have been pretty busy.

Anyways, Billfer said it for me:

DTW: The one where I admit my wrongness: Edwin Jackson edition

For old time's sake

2009-05-11T20:40:00.000-04:00

Inconsistency?

2009-05-10T08:56:00.002-04:00

A quote from Eric Wedge after last night's game:

“We can’t keep playing the game with this type of inconsistency,”

I can't help but think back-to-back shutouts is pretty consistent. Consistent is consistently overused in sports. There are numerous synonyms for the word bad. Use one of them instead of copping out and saying "inconsistent!"

Memo to Jim Leyland

2009-05-05T16:46:00.002-04:00

When you move somebody down in the order, they bat less often.

When you bat your most effective hitters to date #4, #5, and #7, expect to score less runs.

This:

Josh Anderson
Placido Polanco
Clete Thomas
Miguel Cabrera
Curtis Granderson
Magglio Ordonez
Brandon Inge
Gerald Laird
Ramon Santiago

is about as bad of a lineup as you can get out of those guys.

Quick Elias Preview

2009-04-25T11:54:00.002-04:00

I expect to have these up and running, updating daily, in a few weeks. However, here's a quick glance at the American League rankings, Tigers in blue, free agent Tigers in bold.

Catchers:

Joe Mauer	A	93.333
Dioner Navarro	A	80.952
Kurt Suzuki	A	79.524
Victor Martinez	A	78.571
A.J. Pierzynski	A	77.619
Mike Napoli	A	77.143
Kelly Shoppach	B	70.952
Jorge Posada	B	70.000
Rod Barajas	B	69.762
Jason Varitek	B	69.048
Gerald Laird	B	65.714
John Buck	B	58.095
Miguel Olivo	None	52.143
Kenji Johjima	None	50.476
Gregg Zaun	None	46.667
Mike Redmond	None	45.714
Jeff Mathis	None	45.714
Jose Molina	None	44.762
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	None	43.810
Raul Chavez	None	40.476
Matt Treanor	None	37.143
Taylor Teagarden	None	35.238
Michael Barrett	None	34.286
Jamie Burke	None	32.143
Shawn Riggans	None	31.667
Chad Moeller	None	30.238
Jose Morales	None	27.381
George Kottaras	None	19.048
Rob Johnson	None	19.048
Corky Miller	None	14.524
Michel Hernandez	None	9.286

First Base/Outfield/DH

Aubrey Huff	A	92.857
Matt Holliday	A	90.857
Nick Markakis	A	90.429
Josh Hamilton	A	87.857
Magglio Ordonez	A	87.714
Jason Bay	A	86.857
Mark Teixeira	A	86.471
Vernon Wells	A	84.000
Miguel Cabrera	A	83.529
Justin Morneau	A	83.529
Grady Sizemore	A	83.286
Bobby Abreu	A	82.571
Carlos Quentin	A	82.429
Kevin Youkilis	A	82.353
Johnny Damon	A	80.857
Shin-Soo Choo	A	80.000
Jermaine Dye	A	79.571
Vladimir Guerrero	A	78.857
Carlos Pena	A	78.824
Xavier Nady	A	78.571
David Ortiz	A	78.571
Hideki Matsui	A	78.571
Curtis Granderson	B	77.714
Jim Thome	B	74.286
Pat Burrell	B	71.857
Torii Hunter	B	71.429
Jason Kubel	B	71.429
Alexis Rios	B	69.857
Ichiro Suzuki	B	69.143
J.D. Drew	B	68.286
Marlon Byrd	B	67.714
David Dejesus	B	67.429
Jack Cust	B	67.286
B.J. Upton	B	63.714
Nelson Cruz	B	60.429
Jose Guillen	B	59.143
Luke Scott	B	58.000
Denard Span	B	57.714
Delmon Young	B	57.429
Lyle Overbay	B	57.059
Carl Crawford	B	56.857
Adam Jones	None	56.000
Billy Butler	None	55.714
Nick Swisher	None	55.571
David Murphy	None	55.429
Jason Giambi	None	55.294
Ken Griffey	None	55.000
Mark Teahen	None	53.429
Jacoby Ellsbury	None	52.143
Paul Konerko	None	51.765
Mike Sweeney	None	51.429
Adam Lind	None	50.286
Mike Jacobs	None	50.000
Ryan Garko	None	49.412
Jeff Bailey	None	48.571
Ryan Sweeney	None	48.286
Coco Crisp	None	48.000
Ben Francisco	None	47.857
Mark Kotsay	None	47.143
Hank Blalock	None	45.882
Rocco Baldelli	None	44.286
Kevin Millar	None	41.765
Gabe Kapler	None	41.714
Travis Snider	None	41.714
Juan Miranda	None	40.588
Travis Hafner	None	40.000
Carlos Gomez	None	39.429
Marcus Thames	None	39.143
Gabe Gross	None	38.714
Willie Bloomquist	None	37.286
David Dellucci	None	37.143
Melky Cabrera	None	36.857
Matthew Joyce	None	36.571
Chris Davis	None	36.471
Michael Cuddyer	None	34.857
Gary Matthews	None	34.286
Josh Anderson	None	34.143
Franklin Gutierrez	None	33.714
Endy Chavez	None	33.286
Juan Rivera	None	33.000
Ryan Freel	None	32.714
Wilson Betemit	None	24.706
Fernando Perez	None	24.286
Jeff Larish	None	23.571
Brian Anderson	None	23.143
Travis Buck	None	20.857
Chris Carter	None	20.714
Brayan Pena	None	20.714
DeWayne Wise	None	19.857
Andruw Jones	None	18.286
Mitch Maier	None	17.857
Ryan Raburn	None	17.143
Wladimir Balentien	None	16.571
Rajai Davis	None	15.286
Cody Ransom	None	13.529
Robert Andino	None	12.143
Reggie Willits	None	11.286
Kendry Morales	None	11.176
Brett Gardner	None	10.429
Felix Pie	None	9.857
Landon Powell	None	7.647
Jonathan Van Every	None	5.857
Jerry Owens	None	3.000
Trevor Crowe	None	1.857

2B/3B/SS

Name	Type	Score
Ian Kinsler	A	94.286
Derek Jeter	A	89.011
Alex Rodriguez	A	82.993
Evan Longoria	A	81.633
Dustin Pedroia	A	80.000
Melvin Mora	A	76.871
Mike Lowell	A	76.871
Alex Gordon	A	76.871
Jhonny Peralta	A	76.374
Michael Young	A	76.374
Orlando Cabrera	A	72.253
Brian Roberts	A	72.143
Yuniesky Betancourt	A	70.879
Placido Polanco	B	70.714
Jason Bartlett	B	69.780
Mike Aviles	B	69.780
Mark Derosa	B	67.857
Jose Lopez	B	67.143
Adrian Beltre	B	66.667
Robinson Cano	B	62.857
Ty Wigginton	B	62.585
Chone Figgins	B	62.585
Marco Scutaro	B	62.088
Scott Rolen	B	61.905
Ben Zobrist	B	59.341
Carlos Guillen	B	59.184
Nick Punto	B	58.791
Erick Aybar	None	57.692
Bobby Crosby	None	56.593
Alexei Ramirez	None	56.429
Akinori Iwamura	None	55.714
Julio Lugo	None	54.945
Brendan Harris	None	54.121
Aaron Hill	None	51.429
Alexi Casilla	None	50.714
Ramon Santiago	None	50.549
Maicer Izturis	None	50.549
Brandon Inge	None	49.660
Brian Buscher	None	46.939
Howie Kendrick	None	46.429
Russell Branyan	None	46.259
Cesar Izturis	None	45.055
Asdrubal Cabrera	None	45.000
Alberto Callaspo	None	45.000
Mark Ellis	None	44.286
Joe Crede	None	43.537
Jose Bautista	None	39.456
Nick Green	None	39.286
Nomar Garciaparra	None	37.912
Willy Aybar	None	37.415
Robb Quinlan	None	32.653
Jed Lowrie	None	32.418
Jamey Carroll	None	32.143
Ronny Cedeno	None	32.143
Chris Getz	None	31.786
Omar Vizquel	None	31.044
Adam Everett	None	30.220
John Mcdonald	None	28.022
Brandon Wood	None	24.490
Eric Chavez	None	24.490
Elvis Andrus	None	23.901
Brent Lillibridge	None	23.352
Josh Barfield	None	19.643
Tony Graffanino	None	17.500
Ramiro Pena	None	16.667
Matt Tuiasosopo	None	15.986
Gil Velazquez	None	14.560
Josh Fields	None	14.286
Jayson Nix	None	6.786

Name	Type	Score
Roy Halladay	A	94.035
C.C. Sabathia	A	93.158
Cliff Lee	A	91.316
Daisuke Matsuzaka	A	89.298
Ervin Santana	A	88.596
A.J. Burnett	A	88.333
Jon Lester	A	86.228
Zack Greinke	A	85.702
Scott Kazmir	A	84.211
John Lackey	A	83.509
Felix Hernandez	A	83.421
James Shields	A	81.842
Gil Meche	A	81.754
Scott Baker	A	81.404
Gavin Floyd	A	80.965
Joe Saunders	A	79.737
Mark Buehrle	A	79.561
John Danks	A	79.211
Vicente Padilla	A	77.544
Josh Beckett	B	75.000
Andy Pettitte	B	75.000
Jeremy Guthrie	B	74.912
Armando Galarraga	B	73.333
Justin Duchscherer	B	73.333
Matt Garza	B	71.930
Kevin Millwood	B	70.526
Shaun Marcum	B	70.175
Kevin Slowey	B	69.737
Tim Wakefield	B	69.649
Erik Bedard	B	68.246
Edwin Jackson	B	67.719
Jesse Litsch	B	65.789
Nick Blackburn	B	64.211
Andy Sonnanstine	B	64.123
Glen Perkins	B	63.246
Jered Weaver	B	62.632
John Smoltz	B	62.105
Justin Verlander	B	61.842
Fausto Carmona	None	57.632
Kyle Davies	None	55.702
Chien-Ming Wang	None	54.386
Jose Contreras	None	54.035
Dustin Mcgowan	None	53.860
Dana Eveland	None	53.684
Brian Bannister	None	49.123
Jarrod Washburn	None	47.982
Brandon Mccarthy	None	47.544
Brad Penny	None	46.667
Sidney Ponson	None	46.140
Sean Gallagher	None	45.965
Scott Lewis	None	45.439
Mark Hendrickson	None	45.351
Ricky Romero	None	44.123
Nate Robertson	None	44.123
Dallas Braden	None	43.860
Bartolo Colon	None	43.684
Jeremy Bonderman	None	43.684
Aaron Laffey	None	43.509
Matt Harrison	None	43.333
Jake Westbrook	None	43.246
Scott Feldman	None	40.526
Rich Hill	None	40.000
Francisco Liriano	None	39.737
Carlos Silva	None	39.474
Carl Pavano	None	39.211
Brad Bergesen	None	38.772
Scott Richmond	None	38.509
Kason Gabbard	None	35.526
Adam Eaton	None	34.912
Radhames Liz	None	34.825
Koji Uehara	None	34.561
Eddie Bonine	None	31.930
David Purcey	None	30.088
Dustin Moseley	None	29.912
Zach Jackson	None	27.895
Jeff Niemann	None	26.667
Josh Outman	None	25.088
Eric Hurley	None	24.211
Jason Jennings	None	20.877
Ryan Feierabend	None	20.351
Rick Porcello	None	19.825
Bryan Bullington	None	15.789
Kris Benson	None	15.789
Dontrelle Willis	None	14.211
Trevor Cahill	None	14.123
Matt Palmer	None	13.070
Chris Jakubauskas	None	12.544
Alfredo Simon	None	11.930
Brett Anderson	None	11.842
Miguel Gonzalez	None	3.947
Steven Jackson	None	3.947
Casey Janssen	None	3.947
Kelvim Escobar	None	3.947

RP:

Name	Type	Score
Mariano Rivera	A	89.027
Joe Nathan	A	87.146
Joakim Soria	A	84.144
Jonathan Papelbon	A	83.575
Kerry Wood	A	82.505
Scott Downs	A	80.435
Joey Devine	A	79.124
J.P. Howell	A	78.537
Matt Thornton	A	78.278
Jesse Carlson	A	77.157
Takashi Saito	A	76.329
Ramon S. Ramirez	A	75.190
Frank Francisco	A	74.810
Brian Fuentes	A	74.776
Dan Wheeler	A	74.327
Brian Bruney	A	73.361
Grant Balfour	A	73.257
Octavio Dotel	A	72.981
Manny Delcarmen	A	71.843
Bobby Jenks	A	71.670
Russ Springer	A	71.014
Jose Arredondo	A	70.531
Juan Cruz	A	69.427
Joba Chamberlain	A	68.944
Darren Oliver	A	66.529
Rafael Perez	B	66.322
Damaso Marte	B	66.184
Brandon Morrow	B	66.080
Hideki Okajima	B	65.666
Brian Shouse	B	65.321
B.J. Ryan	B	65.114
Scot Shields	B	63.112
Jim Johnson	B	62.595
Joe Nelson	B	62.491
Brad Ziegler	B	62.422
Troy Percival	B	62.146
Justin Masterson	B	61.836
Scott Linebrink	B	61.836
Joe Smith	B	59.386
George Sherrill	B	59.179
Jamey Wright	B	59.075
Andrew Bailey	B	58.972
Brian Tallet	B	58.937
Ryan Rowland-Smith	B	58.799
Luis Ayala	B	58.558
Jesse Crain	B	58.558
Jose Veras	B	57.074
Fernando Rodney	B	56.936
Rafael Betancourt	B	56.901
Jose Mijares	B	56.246
Matt Guerrier	None	55.349
Brandon Lyon	None	55.124
Eddie Guardado	None	54.883
Ron Mahay	None	54.555
Dennis Sarfate	None	54.486
C.J. Wilson	None	54.313
Phil Coke	None	54.037
Hunter Jones	None	53.468
Tony Sipp	None	53.468
Jensen Lewis	None	53.382
Edwar Ramirez	None	53.037
Roy Corcoran	None	52.174
Santiago Casilla	None	51.967
Chad Bradford	None	51.932
Doug Waechter	None	51.863
Craig Breslow	None	51.208
David Aardsma	None	51.208
Javier Lopez	None	51.139
Zach Miner	None	50.345
Jason Frasor	None	50.104
Anthony Reyes	None	49.137
Boof Bonser	None	49.103
Masahide Kobayashi	None	47.412
Robinson Tejeda	None	47.378
Justin Speier	None	47.188
Shawn Kelley	None	45.894
Matt Albers	None	45.583
Bobby Seay	None	44.651
Shawn Camp	None	43.979
Danys Baez	None	43.030
Kyle Farnsworth	None	42.685
Michael Wuertz	None	42.547
Jason Isringhausen	None	42.322
Brian Bass	None	42.236
Brandon League	None	41.201
Miguel Batista	None	41.063
D.J. Carrasco	None	40.787
Jerry Blevins	None	40.580
Joaquin Benoit	None	40.442
Lance Cormier	None	40.407
Pat Neshek	None	40.062
Ryan Perry	None	39.562
Sean White	None	39.199
R.A. Dickey	None	39.165
Jonathan Albaladejo	None	38.544
Derek Holland	None	38.406
Jamie Walker	None	38.337
David Robertson	None	37.474
Bill Murphy	None	37.336
Dan Giese	None	36.991
Cesar Jimenez	None	36.680
Brian Duensing	None	36.473
Mark Lowe	None	35.335
John Bale	None	34.748
Josh Rupe	None	33.575
Dustin Nippert	None	33.299
Luis Mendoza	None	33.161
Joel Zumaya	None	32.781
Juan Rincon	None	30.141
Darren O'Day	None	28.865
Vinnie Chulk	None	27.019
Clayton Richard	None	26.743
Jason Bulger	None	25.155
Warner Madrigal	None	24.534
Chris Ray	None	23.257
Horacio Ramirez	None	21.601
Mike Macdougal	None	19.289
Rafael Rodriguez	None	17.495
Shane Loux	None	15.735
Philip Humber	None	11.111
Rich Thompson	None	9.403
Willie Eyre	None	9.213
Daniel Davidson	None	8.609
Kevin Jepsen	None	8.592
Juan Morillo	None	4.762
Anthony Claggett	None	3.847
Jack Egbert	None	3.520

A few notes:
I still count Magglio Ordonez as a free agent. His option hasn't vested yet, even though it likely will.

Remember, any marginal Type A free agent probably won't net the draft picks. Between the team's unwillingness to offer arbitration in a dampened free agent market and the player likely to accept any arbitration, there are a ton of obstacles to those draft picks.

Orlando Cabrera has a clause in his contract that he can't be offered arbitration if he's Type A.

Positions are calculated as of today. No effort is made to project what position somebody will have played the most games by the end of the year.

The rosters are weird. Last year I used ESPN's rosters, but they no longer have the active rosters on their site (Seriously, what good does a 40 man roster do?). I instead used CNNSI, but am going to have to change that. Off the top of my head, I see Phil Humber, Juan Miranda, and Jack Egbert (all demoted) as well as the late Nick Adenhart, who is definitely not on the Angels' roster. So if anybody knows of a place that updates rosters daily and accurately and can be imported via web query into excel, leave a comment. Thanks.

I'll shoot to have these in spreadsheet format with all sorts of friendly sorting tools, sometime next month. There's no rush, since the results are pretty insignificant right now. Leave any suggestions on presentation if you like.

Ninth Inning Thoughts

2009-04-22T05:52:00.002-04:00

Adam Everett used as a pinch hitter? Just because he can't hit, that does not mean he can be used in small ball situations.
Did I mention bringing Adam Everett on to bunt with no element of surprise is a bad move? Let Anderson's speed get him over to second and then have Everett (or Larish since you are taking the bat out of the batter's hands, does it really matter which side he comes from?). I'll repeat this until I'm blue in the face. Bunting a runner to second base is not sound strategy; bunting him to third base is!
Speaking of Anderson, the play in which he was picked off was a balk. It bothers me to no end that lefties are not called for balks on plays where they step toward home on a pickoff.

Verlander

2009-04-17T22:59:00.002-04:00

This is as good as JV has looked in a long time. High to mid 90's with nice command on the fastball and the curveball has been tight and well placed. This is nice to see.

Two Years

2009-04-16T18:28:00.002-04:00

Those who started reading this blog last year may wonder who the Brian is who died way too young in 2007. It was two years ago today that a coward senselessly took away the lives of over 30 Hokies, including Brian. For those who weren't around then, check out this post:

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-i-got-news-that-there-was-shooting.html

For some of his writings on this site, check out these:
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2006/11/gary-sheffield-to-tigers-what-does-it.html
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2006/08/trade-analysis-of-casey-to-tigers-well.html

Continue to RIP, bud.

RIP Mark the Bird

2009-04-13T21:30:00.003-04:00

It's a sad day for Tigers fans.

Being born in 1985, I never saw Mark Fidrych pitch until MLB Network showed him. I'd seen interviews over the years and was always fascinated. Most importantly, watching him pitch and hearing him speak put a smile on my face when I finally got to see it. It made me wish I was 15 years older so I could have experienced it.

Mark Fidrych was one of a kind, and he will be missed.

A Lot to Cover

2009-04-02T15:52:00.002-04:00

The Final Roster

You've heard by now Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry made the team. While some teams would hold them back to suppress their service time, the Tigers have never been a team to do that. I'll argue that they are making the right move here, as pitchers are unlikely to be as productive six years down the road.

Zach Miner, now to be nicknamed Lloyd Christmas (You mean there's still a chance!), enters the rotation. This is the right move.

To supplement the rotation, the Tigers are going with two long relievers. Eddie Bonine is a good fit as a long reliever as a control specialist. He may not eat the innings in a dominant manner, but he'll keep the other relievers fresh if the starter gets rocked. The same can be said for Nate Robertson, who is a starter waiting in the wings. I'm a fan of this move, as the Tigers have some flexibility now.

Juan Rincon, Perry, Bobby Seay, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney round out the pen. I love the use of the phrase "Opening Day Closer."

It looks like Jeff Larish has the last spot. That means Brent Clevlen could be traded or put through waivers before the season.

James Skelton

Skelton didn't make the Diamondbacks' roster. The Tigers, however, didn't want him back and negotiated a deal with Arizona for pitcher Brooks Brown. DTW has the rundown on Brown. It looks like a solid pick up. Once you see Toledo's rotation, you'll see why the Tigers wanted some depth.

Projected Standings

I am moving this weekend and won't have internet until next week. As such, I'll need to project this year's standings right now so I'm not cheating. I don't have time to run through

AL East:

1. Boston

2. Tampa Bay (WC)

3. New York

4. Toronto

5. Baltimore

AL Central:

1. Cleveland

2. Detroit

3. Chicago

4. Minnesota

5. Kansas City

AL West:

1. Oakland

2. Texas

3. Los Angeles

4. Seattle

NL East:

1. Atlanta

2. Philadelphia (WC)

3. New York

4. Florida

5. Washington

NL Central:

1. Chicago

2. St. Louis

3. Milwaukee

4. Cincinnati

5. Houston

6. Pittsburgh

NL West:

1. Los Angeles

2. Arizona

3. San Francisco

4. Colorado

5. San Diego

World Series: Tampa Bay over Chicago

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia

AL ROY: Travis Snider (Tons of good canididates here: Wieters, Price, Anderson, Cahill, etc.)

AL MOY: Bob Geren

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

NL ROY: Jordan Schafer

NL MOY: Bobby Cox

Bad Idea

2009-03-31T13:27:00.002-04:00

Well, when he was acquired I had this fear. Now, looking at today's spring lineup, it has come to fruition. Josh Anderson is leading off and playing left field with Curtis Granderson moving down in the lineup.

Curtis Granderson was a perfect table setter, with his numerous doubles and triples complementing the singles hitting Placido Polanco very well. Moving him down in the order, assuming 18 PA's per spot in the lineup, will mean that Granderson will bat roughly 72 fewer times than he would batting leadoff. Using PECOTA's projections, that's somewhere between 2 and 3 homeruns lost and between 26 and 27 total bases lost. Simply put, having Curtis Granderson batting leadoff allows the Tigers to maximize the amount of times one of their best hitters comes to the plate. Moving him down in the lineup is a bad idea. If the idea is to use Anderson as some kind of table setter, batting him ninth would make a ton of sense, if not for the platoon disadvantage created by having two lefties back to back.

However, it's possible that today's spring lineup is nothing to get worried about and it's just an attempt to allow Anderson to bat as often as possible in front of the Tigers' staff. Let's hope that's the case.

Great News!

2009-03-31T10:36:00.002-04:00

Hey Oh! Gary Sheffield is long gone. No longer is the DH spot being held down by a sore spot in the lineup. No longer will the Tigers have to put Gary Sheffield in the lineup when his injuries suggest he should be riding pine. No longer will Carlos Guillen have to sit when he can't play the field. No longer will... well, the same thing for Magglio Ordonez.

This is great news that can only be ruined if the Tigers come out and say they are giving Josh Anderson a starting gig.

Josh Anderson for Rudy Darrow

2009-03-30T15:55:00.002-04:00

The big news today is the Tigers' acquisition of Josh Anderson for reliever Rudy Darrow.

On the surface, this looks like an odd move. The Tigers have had somewhat of a roster crunch at the back end of the bat, and acquiring a player like Anderson, who is out of options, only excacerbates that flexibility. However, Anderson could be a quality fit for this team.

With the gimpy Carlos Guillen and potentially gimpy Magglio Ordonez patrolling the corner outfield spots, it would be nice to have not only somebody who can come in and pinch run for those guys, but can play some late inning defense as well.
I just addressed pinch running, but Anderson's a very good base stealer, who could provide an asset late in a close game.
With Curtis Granderson on the team, there's no risk of the manager falling in love with him and playing him everyday in center.
Rudy Darrow is just a basic relief prospect with a funky enough delivery to suggest he won't stay healthy long enough long term. The value given up is okay.
Clete Thomas can play every day instead of rotting on the bench. The same goes for Ryan Raburn, whose defensive liabilities have relegated him to trade bait.

This trade also could mean the end for Marcus Thames, whether he's injured, traded or released. Barring an injury to Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, or Magglio Ordonez, his talents are basically redundant.

On another note, I would really like to wish Dontrelle Willis the best. Even if the Anxiety Disorder isn't affecting him, it's not anything to mess with. His pitching goes to the backburner now as everybody tries to make sure everything is right upstairs with him.

A Feared Reunion

2009-03-30T09:45:00.003-04:00

In 2007, the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays had an awful season, going 66-96. As everybody knows by now, they turned that around very quickly, going 97-65 last season and going to the World Series.

Two years ago, one of their biggest problems was their bullpen. What leads they did have could not be held. According to the numbers at fangraphs, the Devil Rays had a -7.84 Win Probability Added total, meaning they cost their team something on the order of 15 or 16 wins over the course of that season.

Enter 2008, now called the Rays, Tampa Bay's relievers, put up a +9.30 total, meaning they helped their team win 18 or 19 times over the course of the season. Without including the effect that an improved defense and rotation had on their improved late inning pitching, the Rays' bullpen accounted for a roughly 30 win turnaround. Let's look at this 2007 bullpen and see if any of these names look familiar:

Name, Games
Gary Glover 67
Al Reyes 61
Brian Stokes 59
Shawn Camp 50
Juan Salas 34
Scott Dohmann 31
Casey Fossum 30
Dan Wheeler 25
Grant Balfour 22
Ruddy Lugo 11

A good chunk of the Rays' improvement came from gutting this dreadful pen. Stokes, Camp, Dohmann, Fossum, and Lugo were gone before the end of the calender year. Juan Salas missed much of last season with injury and visa issues before being cut this offseason. Glover and Reyes were phased out of the Rays' plans over the course of last year before being released during the summer months. Only Wheeler and Balfour stayed on board, and both have admittedly pitched well since this awful season.

Apparently, the Tigers have looked at this formula and think the way to build a succesful bullpen is through picking up as many castoffs as possible from the worst ever bullpen. This started with Gary Glover and Casey Fossum last year. These are names that many Tigers' fans would like to file away with the likes of Lino Urdaneta and Brian Maxcy after having failed miserably with the team last year. Finally rid of the short term crappiness that was Glover and Fossum, the offseason, Ruddy Lugo was signed to a minor league deal to eat some innings in Toledo. This was an acceptable role for a guy who really isn't that good.

I thought this was a coincidence for a while, and then I saw rumors that the Tigers were close to acquiring Brian Stokes, the worst pitcher in the worst bullpen ever, for Ryan Raburn. Yes, Raburn is part of a roster crunch, but he does have an option. Unless he was claimed on revocable waivers (because his debut was more than three years ago), he can be sent to Toledo to alleviate a roster crunch. It certainly helps to have capable players down there. But this isn't about Ryan Raburn. The fact is that the Tigers were ready to give up something more than a bucket of swept up sunflower seed shells for a 29 year old pitcher with a career 79 ERA+ in yet another attempt to recapture some of that 2007 Devil Rays magic.

Like with Rich Aurilia and Carl Pavano, consider this bullet dodged.