The Fantasy Baseball Guide

New projections

2008-03-22T04:32:00.000-07:00

And prices. These are brand spanking new, but even since completing them Freddy Sanchez has gone hurting again.

Also, these are 4x4 prices. In 5x5 relief pitchers go down a bit, and even bad starters go up an equal bit. In hitters, playing time gets a bump.

I'll post the final projections here next weekend. Good luck.
Peter

032208projections.xls

Updated projections

2008-03-06T20:18:00.000-08:00

Guideprojections030508.xls

The link is to updated projections for nearly all major leaguers. These are in decent shape, but they still haven't been combed for imbalances and tough situations to call. For instance, Colorado 2B.

Right now all three candidates (yes, I'm stubbornly sticking with Marcus Giles a little) have about 700 AB projected. Baker is in the lead, I don't really believe in Nix (but he'll run some if he gets PT) and I'm living in the past, it seems, on Giles. In a week or two I think we'll have a better idea of how that's going to shake out.

If you're drafting today in an NL league it isn't a terrible play to grab any of them at the end of the draft to fill a MI slot, but then you just have to hope you get lucky.

A Reader Writes about DH Games Played

2008-01-30T08:23:00.000-08:00

Your decision or oversite in not providing info on number of DH appearances on the player profiles diminishes the value of your usefulness. In the past, FBG has been one of my chief sources of information heading in to the draft. This year I must seek out additional sources for rather basic player information.

I'm disappointed.
GA

To which I wrote back:

I'm sorry you feel that way. The last time we included DH information for major leaguers was 2005. This is the third year of the DH-less major league games played lines. My feeling was that the DH display was the clearest way to differentiate between ML and Minor League games played lines in the stat boxes, and that the DH info is much more important at the minor league level than at the major league level.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, and will consider a different way of presenting the information if there is some sort of consensus that there is a better way to do things. I've posted your email and my answer on the website, and request that interested readers post comments if they care.

Cheers,
Peter

Daisuke Matsuzaka

2008-01-27T11:11:00.000-08:00

The projections in the magazine are improved this year. I spent a lot more time twiddling with the mechanicals, which are usually pretty good for the vets but don't get playing time for the youngsters and the injured.

But the mechanicals also took Japanese baseball history for DiceK as if it were MLB play, giving him an inflated set of mechanicals that I failed to adjust. I'm in the process of doing updated projections, a set of which will be available here about Feb 1st, so I don't know where Daisuke will land exactly, but I'm optimistic for him this year.

I'd say 17 wins, 8 losses, 3.50, 195 K, 1.22 WHIP. Or thereabouts.

Chad Tracy's Blood is Thinner

2008-01-23T20:48:00.000-08:00

Tracy had surgery to repair a fracture and was expected to probably be ready for spring training, but as the magazine was going to be it was revealed that he'd developed a blood clot and was on blood thinners. He can't play until the clot issue is resolved and it isn't yet, so there is some good chance that he won't be ready come opening day. That makes his $17 bid price way high at this point. When we know when he's going to start to play, prorate it.

Mach Ian Snell Carlos Marmol

2008-01-23T18:55:00.000-08:00

That's what I did to poor Todd Zola, who chose to make a PICK of Ian Snell but had his comment land beneath Carlos Marmol. I'm not going to try to figure out how that happened, or how none of us noticed it given the contents of the PICK:

ZOLA PICK: Ian Snell--Forget the Wins. Snell improved his skills in 2007. Predicting year three of a talented player is as difficult as it gets. My spidey sense is telling me what we saw is real and Snell will continue to get better.

But like Spiderman, perhaps, continue to suffer identity issues. Sorry about that Todd.

Oh Preston Wilson!

2008-01-22T18:53:00.001-08:00

Everybody looks so healthy around the Thanksgiving holidays. Maybe it's the tryptophane, or the pinot noir. In any case, a $6 bid price doesn't look so good for Preston Wilson, who is coming back from knee surgery and hasn't really looked like a major league player since early in 2006. But unlike Alex Escobar (see yesterday's correction), who has managed to eke out about 400 plate appearances during his lengthy career, Wilson was a bona fide star for a little while, and earned $12 and a World Series ring two years ago.

Don't count on him, but he's not necessarily done. Instead of $6 he should have been listed as a sleeper.

Today's correx

2008-01-21T20:56:00.000-08:00

I'm working on updated projections and there are plenty of little tweaks and changes because of various signings and releases. I should probably do a better job of documenting what all those changes are, but I don't. I did notice while going through the projections that I put a bid price on Alex Escobar of $8, who is currently a free agent. That was wack.

Not that he couldn't earn that if he stayed healthy, but he's never stayed healthy. If he looks like he has a shot at playing time on draft day he's worth a few bucks. Even if he's sort of buried but kind of healthy he's worth a buck. But these are end game plays when everyone good is gone. $8? What was I thinking?

Mock CSV

2008-01-21T12:43:00.000-08:00

For those who asked for a pick by pick listing of the Mock, here's the CreativeSportsMock.csv.

The link or target as a csv file, which will open in any spreadsheet.

Strategies of Champions correction

2008-01-19T09:18:00.001-08:00

In my interview with Jeff Erickson, on page 12, I point out that Mike Lombardo had won Tout Wars NL two of the previous three years by buying the best starters, spending there because others weren't. Then I note that while this is clearly a successful strategy for Mike, he finished (and this is where I get into trouble) last the other year using the same strategy.

Actually, he got off to a miserable start, was in last for much of the first half of the season, but then played brilliantly the rest of the year and finished eighth.

It would have been better if I checked the fact before printing it. Sorry Mike.

Today's Corrections

2008-01-18T10:45:00.000-08:00

The hitter Shinnosuke Abe is not eligible to become a NPB free agent until 2010, not 2009 as his capsule says.

Brian Walton did not draft Huston Street twice in the mock draft. In the ninth round he took Fausto Carmona. In the 10th round he took Street.

If you want to check out the draft grid at mockdraftcentral.com, click the link.

Keep those corrections coming to askrotoman(at)gmail.com. Thanks.

Rick Wilton's 2007 Injury Report: Last Year's Epidemic

2008-01-17T21:09:00.000-08:00

Injury Epidemic Strikes Baseball
Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report

Last season, 404 players were placed on the disabled list. This is the first time more than 400 players landed on the DL this century and most likely in the history of the DL.

From 2002-2006, an average of 355 players per season landed on the DL. Last season’s 404 is a 12.8 percent jump over the prior five year average. It doesn’t stop there. The five year average of DLDs (days on the DL) was 23,551 per season. In 2007, it skyrocketed to 28,524, a 19.5 percent increase over the five-year average. Injuries definitely took their toll on baseball in 2007.

Why the huge increase? There are most likely several reasons. First, PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) must be a factor though it is impossible to gauge how much of an impact they have had on injuries. Two years ago, major league baseball installed a tougher testing policy, yet the DL numbers did not move dramatically in either direction the first year out. Speculation in baseball circles is that HGH (human growth hormone), for which there is no ML test right now, has replaced steroids as the PED of choice. The bottom line regarding PEDs is that we're seeing more injuries now than a decade ago. It stands to reason that PEDs are at least part of the blame, but unfortunately it is impossible to determine how much.

The second reason is broader. Players are working harder to increase their strength, even by legal means. Stretching and flexibility has not kept pace with the increase in overall player strength. A great example can be seen with an injury like a strained oblique. From 2002 to 2007, while the number of oblique injuries remained fairly small, the quantity doubled in that time frame. One strength coach who works with major league players in the offseason told me last summer that today’s players are not as dedicated as they should be to maintaining the correct level of flexibility. The result is more pulls, strains and tendon injuries.

Lastly, teams have huge investments in players and they are more likely to protect their investments by placing a player, especially a pitcher, on the DL even though he might be able to work his way through the ailment. The thinking is, "let us invest a couple of weeks in DL time to get him healthy rather than risk a much more serious injury."

What can we expect in 2008? If the 12.8 percent increase in the number of players landing on the DL last season was a statistical aberration, a blip, we are likely to see a return to the prior level of DL trips and days spent on the DL. If the number of players again passes the 400 level and the DLDs are near 28,000, then we can conclude a higher rate of injuries is likely here, at least for a while.

Day 1 corrections and updates

2008-01-10T21:05:00.000-08:00

The magazine arrived at my house last night, which should mean it will start showing up in stores early next week. Each year the battle to eradicate typos and fix mistakes before we print the thing gets more heated, and I think each year we've done a generally better job on the small stuff. But the schedule, weariness, the small staff, the miserable wages, all work against us. Over the coming weeks I"ll be chronicaling the things that went awry here, just so you know I'm paying attention.

Kosuke Fukudome: He was unsigned until the day the magazine shipped, and I put off making a projection or price for him because I thought there was some chance he'd sign in Japan. In retrospect that was wrong and I probably should have known it then. In any case, I'll project him soon, but I can say that my price for him today is $12. He's going to go for more than that in most NL leagues and he may earn it, but I'm not sure the power is going to translate, and I think it's a risk to think his transition is going to be seamless. It could happen, but coming off an injury and surgery and all, I'm not getting aggressive.

Akinori Otsuka: He had surgery yesterday. You can take the $12 I suggested for Otsuka and pay Fukudome with it. The comment suggests that surgery may be in the works, but didn't anticipate the Rangers releasing him. He's not a factor this year.

Page 160: That's the back page. Meryl Gordon is the spouse who wrote about her strategy to help her husband, Walter, win the American Dream League. I spelled her name right in the by line and the bio, but a late addition xref to Walter's story resulted in a misspelling. It's a terrible mistake to misspell someone's name and I'm sorry. I'm also sorry for a vicepresidentialish gaffe on the plural of Burrito in the article's art. Ouch.

I also found some bad grammar this afternoon but now I've lost it. Feel free to note more errors in the comments, or write me at askrotoman(at)gmail.com. Thanks.

2007 Mock Draft Winner

2008-01-08T19:09:00.001-08:00

This year's Mock Drafters were a little more verbose than usual, and kicked the featurette about last year's Mock Draft Winner to the website. Here it is:

The 2007 Mock Draft Winner
by Rotoman

Tom Kessenich, from fantasybaseballchampionship.com, drafted last year’s winning Mock team. Some will mock the importance of this, but we all play by the same rules, and by those rules Tom won. The two previous years Jason Grey and, um, I won.

Now, one reason the mock draft isn’t a perfect venue for judgment is that it takes place in early November, before all but the most impatient free agents have signed, before all but the most pathetic non-tenders have been non-tendered (or tendered), and then, of course, there are the miscellaneous motorcycle or deer hunting accidents.

But the fact is that only two players taken in last year’s mock didn’t play in 2007 (Mark Prior and Nick Johnson) and they were kind of predictable. So we all have the same amount of knowledge, even if it’s less than we’ll have in March. But few took Carlos Pena in March either.

So, here is Tom Kessenich’s draft, round by round, with his post-draft comments and my sniping observations a year later. Note that Tom had the 10th pick in the 15 team mixed draft.

Round 1 (10): David Wright 3B—An emerging superstar. You got that right!
Round 2 (20): Bobby Abreu OF—Plenty of HR and SB. You got that half right!
Round 3 (40): Victor Martinez C—One of fantasy’s best at this position. Yes, indeed!
Round 4 (50): Roy Oswalt P—He’s everything you want in an ace. Agreed!
Round 5 (70): Edgar Renteria SS—Rock solid SS option. He certainly was last year!
Round 6 (80): John Smoltz P—Still pitching at a very high level. And consistent, too!
Round 7 (100): Adrian Gonzalez 1B—Plenty of power and upside. Which he realized!
Round 8 (110): Magglio Ordonez OF—The ALCS hero. And one year later, nearly MVP!
Round 9 (130): Todd Jones P—Still closing effectively. Hasn’t slowed down much!
Round 10 (140): Ryan Freel OF—Speed, speed, speed. Actually, he did.
Round 11 (160): Nomar Garciaparra 1B—Injuries a concern, but he can still hit. Injuries hurt, and he didn’t hit well.
Round 12 (170): Chien-Ming Wang P—Emerged as Yankees’ ace in 2006. In 2007, too.
Round 13 (190): Bob Wickman P—Crafter veteran is a good closer. When healthy, which he wasn’t last year.
Round 14 (200): Ken Griffey OF—Injury prone but can still bash. And have a nice season every four years or so.
Round 15 (220): Luis Castillo 2B—Regained his speed last season. Part of it, anyway, but a nice pick at this point.
Round 16 (230): Kevin Millwood P—ERA’s a concern but he’ll help with wins. Unless he doesn’t.
Round 17 (250): Paul Lo Duca C—Quality No. 2 catcher found very late. More like, okay, doesn’t stink.
Round 18 (260): Juan Encarnacion OF—Underrated OF option. When he’s not hurt.
Round 19 (280): Tom Glavine P—Lack of consistency a concern. In this league all that matters is how things turn out in the end. For TG, not so good.
Round 20 (290): Ty Wigginton 1B/2B/3B—Surprising power last season. Not so surprising this year.
Round 21 (310): Scott Linebrink P—One of the game’s best set-up men. Just okay the last two years.
Round 22 (320): Jeff Suppan P—Finished strong in 2006. That didn’t continue in 2007.
Round 23 (340): Ryan Braun 3B—Huge upside for this Brewers’ prospect. Fully realized!

Tom’s first nine rounds were golden. There may have been better picks at some points, in restrospect, but there wasn’t a bad pick in the bunch. Looking over the drafts of other teams this isn’t the case. Injuries are the big culprit. Bob Ashmen took Albert Pujols with the first pick, and while Albert disappointed he didn’t wreck Bob’s season. Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, Dontrelle Willis and Jorge Cantu (the cost of drafting in November) saw to that.

Tom had none of those disasters in the early rounds, and his disasters in the middle were relatively mild. Only Millwood and Jeff Suppan were flat out negative. But the bottom line is that Tom turned what was probably a small lead into the rout it became in the last round, when he took Ryan Braun. Congratulations to him for a great and dominant draft (he beat baseballhq.com’s Doug Dennis by 18 points), and a most excellent last pick.

Too bad he couldn’t make it back to defend his crown this year.

It's on its way...

2008-01-08T19:04:00.000-08:00

Expect copies to start showing up in the next week or so.

2007 Profit/Loss Statements

2008-01-08T17:54:00.000-08:00

2007profitloss.xls (148kb, excel file)

Because of a boomlet of advertising we had to move some Statland pages from the printed magazine to the website. The profit loss statements get sortable as excel files, which isn't a bad thing.

For those who don't do excel, here's a text file.

2007profitloss.txt (232kb,text file)

Almost here...

2008-01-07T20:00:00.000-08:00

This is the home page for the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008. The page isn't password protected but there are no links here except in the magazine.

You'll find corrections here until there aren't any more, and projection updates and updated bid prices here at the start of March and the end of March.

If you'd like to find more player comments and exciting discussions about players, please visit pattonandco.com.

You'll also find answers to fantasy baseball questions and more exciting discussions at talk.askrotoman.com.

Last Projections

2007-04-06T08:49:00.000-07:00

2007pkprojections.xls

The link is to updated projections and draft prices for 2007, with my 4x4 and Mike Fenger's 5x5 prices. The $ column is the value of the projections using Alex Patton's formula, which doesn't add up to the right total, but is in the ballpark.

Rotoman Projection Update

2007-03-06T14:45:00.000-08:00

Here finally is the update, with my 4x4 prices and Mike Fenger's 5x5 prices. Those are bid prices, estimates of what you should look to pay for a player. The projected price is the value of my projection for the player.

There will be another update here about March 15th.

rotomanprojupdate03022007.xls

2007-02-14T21:56:00.000-08:00

Trying to figure out the upload and image parameters at the new Blogger. Here's the cover of this year's mag, which features Johan Santana. It should replace the Albert Pujols cover, which was last year's model for sure. That's in the works.

Snafu at 2B

2007-01-18T20:46:00.000-08:00

When something goes terribly wrong I try to figure out how it happened. I can't figure out how the 2B Draft at a Glance chart ended up showing the 2006 chart, with Alfonso Soriano on top. The text clearly reflects the real listing. So do the other charts on that page, which are right.

Here is the list I sent in on November 29th. I may have some corrections after this:

SECOND BASE 2007
1 Chase Utley $31
2 Marcus Giles $23
3 Robinson Cano $21
4 Brian Roberts $20
5 Freddy Sanchez $20
6 Tadahito Iguchi $18
7 Ian Kinsler $17
8 Rickie Weeks $17
9 Julio Lugo $16
10 Josh Barfield $15
11 Jorge Cantu $15
12 Dan Uggla $15
13 Luis Castillo $15
14 Jeff Kent $15
15 Ray Durham $13
16 Howie Kendrick $12
17 Jose Lopez $12
18 Brandon Phillips $12
19 Orlando Hudson $12
20 Ty Wigginton $11
21 Ronnie Belliard $11
22 Placido Polanco $11
23 Aaron Hill $10
24 Chris Burke $10
25 Adam Kennedy $10
26 Jose Vidro $8
27 Mark Grudzielanek $8
28 Jose Castillo $7
29 Esteban German $7
30 Mark Ellis $7
31 Dustin Pedroia $6
32 Russ Adams $6
33 Mark Loretta $6
34 Alex Cintron $5
35 Willy Aybar $4
36 Ryan Theriot $4
37 Nick Punto $4
38 Kazuo Matsui $4
39 Jamey Carroll $4
40 Craig Biggio $4
41 Ronny Cedeno $3
42 Omar Infante $3
43 Freddie Bynum $3
44 Hector Luna $3
45 Mark DeRosa $3
46 Todd Walker $3
47 Tony Graffanino $3
48 Joe Inglett $2
49 Aaron Miles $2
50 Jose Valentin $2
51 Alberto Callaspo $1
52 Kevin Frandsen $1
53 Omar Quintanilla $1
54 Jerry Hairston $1
55 Alex Cora $1
56 Marco Scutaro $1
57 Marlon Anderson $1
58 Yunel Escobar R
59 Ruben Gotay R
60 Martin Prado R
61 Eric Bruntlett R
62 Brendan Harris R
63 Willie Harris C
64 Willie Bloomquist C

Jered Weaver

2006-12-20T07:55:00.000-08:00

I think I just neglected to adjust Jered Weaver's mechanical projection before pouring it into the Guide. Here's my projection as of December 20.

IP H ER HR BB K W L S ERA WHIP
150 149 60 18 45 128 11 7 0 3.59 1.29

Justin Verlander

2006-12-19T07:55:00.000-08:00

I'm not sure what happened here, but he ended up projected as a reliever. He'd be a good one, but that's not his role. Here's a corrected line.

IP H ER HR BB K W L SV ERA WHIP
150 142 56 14 44 122 13 8 0 3.36 1.24

As I type this I wonder about the 150 IP. That's really a way to hedge what otherwise has to be a strong projection. I suppose when I do the final tweaks I'll have to bump him up to 200 IP, but at this point it seems too much too soon.

Jon Papelbon

2006-12-19T07:15:00.000-08:00

I'm jiggering projections for an mlb.com game and can't really see how to justify moving him into the rotation, as I did for the Guide. Some of that is the Matsuzaka signing. There just isn't a slot for him. I think the Sox are serious about trying to protect, but I'm not sure that they won't decide they can do that in the bullpen, where they need him more, too.

San Francisco Giants : Player Information

2006-04-28T22:59:00.000-07:00

San Francisco Giants : Player Information

Ray Durham gets hurt, a guy gets called up and starts and he isn't in the Guide! I hate that.

Frandsen is exactly the sort of worth 25 year old "hopes to be utility player" we often miss. He's a fine enough player at the bat and in the field to do a serviceable job while Durham's out of action, but unless he steps it up surprisingly, he's not going to be a future regular.

That makes him a risky but worthwhile pick this coming week. And maybe the one after.