PROFESSOR MANDIA'S WEB BULLETIN BOARD

ALR vs ELR

2009-07-05T18:38:00.000-04:00

I'm somewhat confused about the exact difference between what the ALR measures and the ELR measures. From what I can gather, the difference is that the ALR is a constant change, and the ELR assumes a constant change, and that the ALR is measuring a single parcel of air. Is this the only difference?

Climate Update: Synthesis Report of the Copenhagen Congress

2009-06-23T19:20:00.002-04:00

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/06/a-warning-from-copenha
gen/

In March the biggest climate conference of the year took place in Copenhagen: 2500 participants from 80 countries, 1400 scientific presentations. Last week, the Synthesis Report of the Copenhagen Congress was handed over to the Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen in Brussels. Denmark will host the decisive round of negotiations on the new climate protection
agreement this coming December.

The climate congress was organized by a "star alliance" of research universities: Copenhagen, Yale, Berkeley, Oxford, Cambridge, Tokyo, Beijing - to name a few. The Synthesis Report is the most important update of climate science since the 2007 IPCC report.

So what does it say? Some aspects of climate change are progressing faster than was expected a few years ago - such as rising sea levels, the increase of heat stored in the ocean and the shrinking Arctic sea ice. "The updated estimates of the future global mean sea level rise are about double the IPCC projections from 2007″, says the new report. And it points out that any
warming caused will be virtually irreversible for at least a thousand years because of the long residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The full report can be downloaded here: http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport

Ammerman Campus Writing Center Summer Hours

2009-05-20T10:05:00.000-04:00

Writing Center Summer Hours

For the summer, the Writing Center is located in the

Academic Computing Center on the main floor of the Huntington Library

Summer Session #1 Hours

Monday: 12:00pm-4:00pm

Tuesday: 2:00pm-6:00pm

Wednesday: 12:00pm-4:00pm

Thursday: 2:00pm-6:00pm

Summer Session #2 Hours

Monday: 12:00pm-4:00pm

Tuesday: 2:00pm-6:00pm

Wednesday: 12:00pm-4:00pm

Thursday: 2:00pm-6:00pm

William Burns, PhD

Assistant Professor of English

Writing Center Coordinator

Suffolk County Community College
533 College Road Islip Arts Building 2-H
Selden, NY 11784

451-4537

burnsw@sunysuffolk.edu

Ten Best Jobs for Two-Year Degrees

2008-07-08T16:25:00.001-04:00

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/worklife/07/02/twoyear.degree/index.html

Gas Humor

2008-03-19T15:03:00.005-04:00

2008-03-09T08:45:00.000-04:00

http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/

Daylight Saving Time gives us the opportunity to enjoy sunny summer evenings by moving our clocks an hour forward in the spring.

Yet, the implementation of Daylight Saving Time has been fraught with controversy since Benjamin Franklin conceived of the idea. Even today, regions and countries routinely change their approaches to Daylight Saving Time.

Here, you can learn about the history of daylight saving (or as some may say, daylight shifting), the standardization of time, and when regions around the globe spring ahead and fall back.

Enjoy!

Odds of Winning the Lotto

2008-01-31T17:00:00.000-05:00

The Mega Millions "odds table" can be found at: http://www.megamillions.com/howtoplay/game_instructions.asp

The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 out of 175,711,536. That means there are 175,711,536 possible ticket combinations. In fact, the ticket 1-2-3-4-5 M:6 has the same odds as any random 6 digit ticket. Because there are 104 tickets drawn per year (2 per week X 52 weeks) it will take a minimum of 1,689,534 YEARS before every possible combination is drawn.

The New York Lottery has slightly better odds with 45,057,474 combinations which require a minimum of 433,245 years before every number will be drawn.

Good luck!

Mega Millions Jackpot Payout Analysis

2008-01-31T16:59:00.000-05:00

http://www.usamega.com/

This link comes from usamega.com and shows how much money a winner would receive via lump sum vs. annual payouts for the Mega Millions Lotto. Very cool! :)

Halloween Costume

2007-10-31T19:51:00.000-04:00

I was a man struck by lightning. The costume was home-made and the lightning was "bolted" on with velcro. I am sure none of you were "shocked" to see me in such a "current" costume. I received many "volts" for originality. Click for a larger view.

Upstate New York Lake-Effect Snow

2007-02-24T09:50:00.000-05:00

Oswego County, New York

Lake- Effect Storm Summary

2007-02-14T16:05:00.000-05:00

Summary of Lake Effect Snow Event over the Tug Hill February 3-12, 2007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 758 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007
...SNOWFALL REPORTS VERIFIED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF THE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO CONFIRM THE TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL FROM THE RECENT LAKE EFFECT STORM. THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL FROM THE EVENT WAS REPORTED AT REDFIELD IN OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE 141 INCHES OCCURRED OVER A 10-DAY STRETCH FROM FEBRUARY 3RD THROUGH FEBRUARY 12TH. OFFICIALS ALSO CLEARED UP SOME CONFUSION ABOUT WHETHER THIS WAS A RECORD FOR A STORM. THEY NOTED THAT COMPARING A 3 DAY EVENT TO ONE THAT SPANS 10 DAYS IS LIKE COMPARING APPLES AND ORANGES. THEREFORE THIS MULTI-DAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CANNOT BE REFERRED TO AS A RECORD. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT TAKE AWAY FROM THE FACT THAT THE STORM TOTALS WERE EXTREME. THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE REGION ARE FAMILIAR WITH LARGE SNOWFALLS. IN DECEMBER OF 2001, 127 INCHES OF SNOW WAS RECORDED IN JUST 6 DAYS IN THE TOWN OF MONTAGUE, ONLY A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD FROM REDFIELD. IN BARNES CORNERS, 54 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD ON JANUARY 9, 1976. THE 10-DAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OFFICIALLY ENDED TODAY AS SNOW WINDED DOWN TO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES. THIS WILL GIVE THE TUG HILL REGION ONLY A VERY BRIEF BREAK AS A LARGE SCALE SNOW STORM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE SAME AREAS HIT HARDEST BY THE RECENT STORM. OTHER SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM TRAINED SNOWFALL OBSERVERS INCLUDED: PARISH 121 INCHES MEXICO 106 INCHES NORTH OSCEOLA 106 INCHES $$ NIZIOL

Forecast Model FYI

2007-02-12T10:11:00.001-05:00

A weather forecast model is a very sophisticated computer program. These models perform billions of calculations using well-established laws of physics for the atmosphere in order to predict how various weather variables will change over time. The greatest limitation for all models is the initial data that is entered into the program. The better the data initialization, the better the forecast output will be. It is for this reason that forecasting a storm several days ahead is very tricky. Until the actual storm forms along the coast, any initialization is an educated guess. For this particular storm, that means the models are "initially guessing" today. Tomorrow, the low center will be forming along the coast so the forecast models will have a very accurate initialization and therefore a much better forecast.

To make things even more tricky for the human forecaster, there are several forecast models to view. Each has its own bias but they all use the same general set of physics equations. However, each model will emphasize individual weather variables (heat, moisture, winds, ocean temps, jet streams, etc.) differently. That can result in a wide range of forecasts over time. The best human forecasters are the ones that know these model biases and how well each model has initialized the data.

Here are the various weather forecast models for North America and where they originate from:

NAM & GFS (United States)
GEM (Canada)
UKMET (United Kingdom)
ECMWF (Europe)

There are also a few other models such as the MM5 from SUNY Stony Brook that are more regional in nature. I view the output from all of these operational models to try to get a handle on various outcomes.

The latest technique to try to get a more accurate forecast is to run programs called "ensemble means." These programs try to consider all of the various forecast models and their output to arrive at a consensus forecast. In the long run, it is very hard to beat the ensemble mean forecast but for an individual storm, often one computer model ends up being "correct" in hindsight so human forecasters agonize over which one to pick. :))

http://citationmachine.net/

2007-01-23T15:28:00.001-05:00

Hey here is a great way to get those annoying "Works Citied" pages out of the way

P.S. double check the work yourself

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