CymruMark

Lord cymrumark?

2007-10-04T11:53:00.000-07:00

The entertaining if not always accurate thoughts of oscar blog (http://www.thoughtsofoscar.blogspot.com/) points out I have lost as many elections as Lord Roger Roberts....so I wonder if I might get a place in the house of lords if Plaid decides to start sending people to the great politicians graveyard.....Lord Cymrumark has a certain ring to it....

Learn something new every day...

2007-08-02T07:05:00.000-07:00

I am very grateful to the Owain Glyn Dwr communicates weblong for the following:

"Such is the long historical traditional links of the game of Rugby with Prince Owain Glyndŵr. Indeed, as was recorded by 18th century antiquarian Iolo Morgannwg, It is a little known historical fact that the game of rugby was actually invented by the Welsh - when in 1315, Llywelyn Bren, Lord of Senghenydd, cut off an English tax collector’s head and tossed it to a gathered crowd of local Welsh, who upon being chased by English soldiers, gleefully ran around tossing the unfortunate tax collector’s head to each other until, finally, one of Llywelyn Bren’s sons drop kicked the head over the gate of Caerffili Castle. Thus, not only was the game of Rugby invented in Wales but Caerffili was, indeed, the very first rugby Club (named the Llywelyn Bren XV of course) in the entire world - if not the universe. Tom Brown and Rugby school is no more than an English Imperialist Invention. You don’t believe it? Trust to the truth of Iolo the Remembrancer!"

P.S. Please note I am not in anyway advocating the slaughtering of tax inspectors nor seeking in anyway to undermine their very considerable efforts to raise the revenues we all need etc. Some of my best friends are tax collectors and I have always publicly defended their role. They have often been treated as second class citizens,even in the bible, and should of course enjoy the same opportunities as the rest of us. I hope that clears up any possible misunderstanding.

Going to the pub...

2007-07-23T06:17:00.000-07:00

is very educational in Llandudno. Two conversations stood out last week: one I overheard to of the regulars in my local haunt discussing the merits of the single transferable voting system. I have never heard anyone in a pub discuss this in the 28 years I have been visiting the pub.

Two. I was joking that living on the side of the Orme was good news what with all the rain etc. I was told that last time llandudno flooded the water ran down the Orme flooding houses and gardens etc....so no more boasting and I am investing in buckets....

2007-07-09T14:20:00.001-07:00

As one of the 18....

As I posted below I both spoke and voted against the coalition with Labour. However I am more than happy to accept the decision and came away from National Council in positive mood.

There is a great deal in the document to be excited about and it is vital that Plaid get on with the job of selling our achievements.

We need to focus on communicating what we will bring to the new government to our supporters and the wider public.

The debate was very good natured and served to unify the party around its decision. It was much harder headed than I expected. Although nobody made the point explicitly it is clear that we will enter the coalition to make it work and realise it wont be perfect and we wont get everything we want even if its in the document. However if the Labour party drags its heels on so many issues as to delay real progress the Plaid leadership no that the broader party will support putting Labour into opposition.

Whilst it would be nice to have had a choice between the two deals the political reality is that it would have been impossible for the National Council to push the assembly group into a decision it did not want. It also would not have been a proper choice as the two documents were not drawn up at the same time with the result that the Red/Green document was inevitably better.

Whilst I have become frustrated over the past weeks with some members on the left of Plaid I respect their position and accept that this is by far the easiest option for the party. If we had opted for the Rainbow and it fell apart the damage would have been enormous. If it comes to it I think we can extricate ourselves from this with a lot less damage.

2007-07-09T14:03:00.000-07:00

Adam Price an apology.

First rule of public debate: If you have a go at someone and then find out you were wrong, say sorry.

On the post below I suggested "Adam Price and friends" had ensured that we could not have a choice between the "rainbow" and "Red/Green" . In fact it was due to the party rules that had been set out some time ago. Everybody agreed that we need to look at the process to see how it can be improved and I am happy to set the record straight.

In fairness to Adam, whilst revealing he reads this blog, he made no mention of me having a pop at him. Nobody has asked me to apologise but I think it appropriate.

7 4 July 7th.

2007-07-03T00:02:00.000-07:00

Adam Price set out seven reasons to vote for the Red green deal. He says that its easy to vote no to things but harder to vote yes. It will be impossible for supporters of the "rainbow" to vote yes for the rainbow on Saturday because Adam and friends have made this impossible. Therefore we have to vote no to the "red green" proposal.

Here are seven reasons to vote no:

1. A Parliament and the future of devolution.

The incompetence of the Labour assembly government threatens the whole devolution project. A new Plaid led government would breathe new life into politics in wales and give us a real chance of winning the referendum. The biggest boost to our chances of course is if there is a Tory government in Westminster as more Labour activists will support a parliament. If Gordon Brown wins another term Labour MPs Lords etc will lead the fight against a parliament unless we are running a successful government we will lose.

2. To lead not follow.

Looking at countries that use PR and usually have coalition government a very clear patten emerges. You either lead the government or opposition or take on the role of a junior partner. if you become a junior partner you are stuck with that role. Your party never grows very much and you have no chance of ever leading a government. The evidence is that if Plaid backs the Red green deal we will NEVER get the chance to lead a government. Do we see our future as an adjunct to the Labour party with an ever weakening negotiating position? We should either lead the government or the opposition.

3. The policy programme.

In terms of the things that Plaid wanted the two programmes are very similar. One Wales offers more on housing but under the "Rainbow" we could have taken an axe to the huge number of bodies in the Health Service and local government leeching money from front line services. Another six months to a year in opposition would give us the chance to re-vist the All wales accord and sort out the costings. One Wales offers some nice rhetoric on halting privatisation but the Tories could never have got any privatisation plans through a cabinet dominated by Plaid and the Lib dems.

4. Do you want a Tory V Labour fight in 2011?

Handing the Tories the role of chief opposition is idiotic. The public will see a Labour government in all but name fighting the Tories. We will vanish from sight. Although most of our vote will stay loyal whatever we do we need to hold onto the "anti Labour" vote and the protest vote that will either switch to the Lib dems, peoples voice or stop at home. Opting for the Rainbow would have kept Wales a Plaid Vrs Labour fight as would remaining in opposition.

5. Its time for a change.

When the negotiations started Rhodri Morgan said an opion poll should be held to see what was the preferred option of the public. An ICM poll showed that the Rainbow was the preferred option. Going against the grain of public opinion is sometimes essential in this case it serves no useful purpose.

6. Lack of stability.

Proponents of the deal claim the Lib dems are unstable, cannot be trusted and may have a new leader within a year. The Lib dem assembly group and special conference voted for the rainbow and they served for three years in a coalition despite huge divisions in their ranks.

Who will be first minister in 2009? We dont know as Rhodri Morgan is standing down. All Labour have to do is string us along for two years then their MPs can get a first Minister of their choice. Under Labour's bizarre election process MPs have a huge say in picking the first minsiter. We can bet they will pick an anti Plaid one to dump us now they have divided the "Rainbow" partners thus ensuring the survival of a Labour minority government after 2009.

7. Building the movement.

For Plaid to achive its objectives we have to build a broad based movement that can appeal to all who make their home in Wales. Becoming a small ultra-leftist adjunct to the Labour party will not enable us to do so. A Plaid led government would show the people of Wales that whilst we care deeply about the language, Trident missiles etc we can make a positive difference for everyone who lives in Wales.

interesting but...

2007-06-27T06:18:00.000-07:00

Have now seen the document agreed with Labour.

It has more detail compared with the all Wales acchord. However there is little in it that could not also have gone into the Rainbow agreement. There is some rhetoric about the market in nhs which is nice to see but does not really get us anywhere.

The commitment on the hospitals is vague and still talks about the nonsense of no closures until community services are in place. Most of the services cannot be provided "in the community" the issue is about single site provision and lack of access to services.

There is some vague talk about a governance commission to review the number of bodies governing Wales. Will Labour vote to make their buddies unemployed? Guess we will wait and see.Clearly wales has to many councils and to many bodies looking at the NHs but as most of these are run or set up by Labour its hard to see them being prepared to dismantle them.

There is lots of talk of the need to buld trust. Labour could start by telling us what Lord Kinnock plans to do in a referendum for a welsh parliament or which dungeon they plan to lock him in.:)

The reality as set out below has not changed. Its not a bad programme as such but we will probably become the third party in the assembly in 2011 if wqe agree this.

Red and green should never be seen.....

2007-06-27T03:47:00.000-07:00

Sad news as the Plaid assembly group votes to prop up or join a failing and unpopular Labour government. The consequences of this decision will last for a generation unless national council halts the process on July 7th.

Why will I be voting against this proposal at National Council and urging others to do the same.

1. Faced with the choice between being the dominant partner in a coalition and a junior partner you always choose to be the dominant partner in order to control the media agenda which is key to modern government.

2. If the rainbow had been proposed the left would have turned up to national council urging us to remember the 80's the miners strike etc. So the key message is remember 79. In the 79referendum virtually the entire Welsh Labour party campaigned against Labour's policy of an assembly. We are expected to believe that Welsh labour MPs will campaign to reduce the number of MPs. Lord Kinnock attended the meeting of Welsh MPs that told Rhodri to do a deal with the LIb dems instead. Will Labour expell him if he campaigns for a no vote? Of course not nor will they expell their councillors or MPs who do the same. I assume a date has been agreed for the referendum if not what the hell are we playing at. Only the election of a Tory government in westminster would get Labour on board for a yes vote.

3. Becoming a junior partner to labour sends out to very negative messages. a) We cannot manage on our own without a bigger partner...so goodbye to independence and goodbye to the idea of a Plaid led government.b) We want a Welsh parliament so we can have permanent Labour government. The message we send out is that we dont want real change in Wales so what is the point in voting?

I am shocked that people on the left of our party will back this nonsese. I work nightshifts stacking shelves in a supermarket for £8 an hour. Most of the people I work with are former Labour voters who stopped voting Labour because their tax money goes to pay for huge numbers of "managers" quangos etc in the public sector and not on service improvements. For self proclaimed "socialists" to support the theft of my colleagues pay to fund 22 Local health Board chief executives £100,000 pa for example would be disgusting. Therefore I look forward to seeing how the new government plans to axe these bodies to free funds for front line services.
If there is no plan then the socialists need to explain themselves.

All in all not a happy day.

Rainbow Warrior

2007-06-19T04:32:00.000-07:00

I have waited a while before commenting on the various options open to Plaid and to the internal debate within the party about what happens next. However the time for silence and reflection is over.

Plaid enjoyed a fairly successful election night and the fact that even at their height the Tories cannot overtake us in terms of seats, or even get that close, shows we are firly established as the second party in Wales. So what next?

I find the whole debate quite difficult for one reason only. Although I am not a socialist I often find myself in agreement with the "socialist" wing of the party. In 2003 I spent a lot of time, and money, helping Helen mary Jones in Llanelli (i was living in leicester at the time) and many of the friends I have made in the party are now amongst those who favour a deal with Labour.

I cannot for the life of me understand why it is that people I otherwise have the utmost respect for would prefer to see a Labour first minister rather than a Plaid one. Let us not delude ourselves that there is another choice, following the "no deal" approach favoured by Jill Evans and others (the Peter Black approach :) ) is effectively making a choice of a Labour first minister over a Plaid one and gaining nothing in return.

Going cap in hand to Labour asking for a couple of cabinet seats and a referendum on a partial parliament is deeply unattractive and will send out the wrong message about our party. We urge the people of Wales to have the confidence to shake of britishness and have our own government yet when faced with the choice of leading a government or playing second fiddle to labour the left want the second fiddle option. Its a left wing version of the "welsh cringe". Horrible to behold in people you admire.

A deal with Labour will deliver nothing of value. Rhodri Morgan willl be gone in two years so any long term promises he makes are worthless. It was Labour policy in 1979 to support the Yes campaign in the referendum yet virtually the entire Welsh labour party campaigned against it. The notion that the Labour "campaigning machine" will be thrown behind a "yes" campaign which if successful would reduce the number of MP's Labour sends to Westminster is laughable. Labour will promise much and deliver little just as they did in 1979.

The likely arrival of a Tory government in Westminster will perhaps concentrate the minds of the so called "nationalist" wing of the Labour party. It would be in the interest of a Tory government to have a Welsh parliament and reduce the number of MPs from wales, it would be in the broader Welsh interest to have a parliament to protect it from the worst access of a Tory westminster government and enough people in welsh Labour will see that.

So a "rainbow" it must be. I detect a growing appetite in the party for government and frustration amonsgt activists as to why it is taking so long to deliver. For those that foam at the mouth at the prospect of the Tories supporting a Plaid first minister I ask them do you have a serious alternative? the answer thus far is none.

Social democrats and Christian democrats work together in many parts of europe. The Tories in wales are now much closer to a "christian democrat party" and Plaid is very much in the Social Democrat tradition. The "socialist" left in Plaid is I suspect not as socialist as they proclaim anyway. Is their vision of an independent Wales one in which the state controls every aspect of life? Or is it the one the rest of us share where a government ensures basic needs are met, cultural and language diversity is encouraged,that there are not huge gaps in wealth between individuals, that the market is policed effectively and the environment protected. The vision that all in Plaid can sign up to and not just socialists.

2007-05-08T11:09:00.000-07:00

Dare to dream

2007-05-02T23:17:00.000-07:00

those of us not driving ourselves into the ground with a get out the vote operation are allowed a few hours to dream.

We could in the next four years take the first steps to having:

strong communities properly policed

an NHS released from free market lunacy with an integrated system of high quality medical centres and smaller community hospitals.

a thriving economy driven by small companies freed from business rate millstones..

the most IT literate workforce in Europe

a country self sufficient in energy

There is so much we could do with the new powers the assembly has. Lets hope the people of Wales have the confidence to share our dream.

Last days on the campaign trail

2007-05-02T12:02:00.000-07:00

Yesterday a team of us headed to far flung parts. A whistle stop tour of Cwm, Rhuallt and Bodfari helped us find a few more supporters and quite a few genuine undecideds.

The views were stunning and the sunshine, yet again, left us all in a good mood.

The idea of visiting some of the more far flung areas seemed to be paying off with voters pleased to see us ...if a little surprised. The most common reaction was "nobody ever calls round here".

As expected the best reaction in terms of certain supporters was in Bodfari. However there was certainly a warm reaction where ever we went.

My team spent most of the time teasing me for having two mobile phones which were ring on a regular basis.

On saturday i left my mobile on the train. I bought another on Sunday but had a phone call on Monday to say my phone had turned up . I much appreciated the honesty of the guy who found my phone and took the trouble to contact me. He lives in prestatyn and was highly amused to have rescued a potential AM's phone.

Today started with a trip to the morning press conference with Phil Edwards returning to his traditional role as my driver. My biggest concern at the, now very, likely prospect of Phil; winning is that he will no longer be able to drive me to meetings up and down wales. Still we will all have to make a few sacrifices for the cause.

IWJ and Dafydd Wigley in fine form at press conference. I got told off by press officer David Bradly for laughing to loudly whilst joking with journalists and for saying I hoped we would listen to the Lib dems and set up our own army as they claimed in their very funny regional election address.

Much of the rest of day spent canvassing in Rhuddlan. The results of which are so astonishing I struggle to believe them.

Have spent the last hour phoning friends in various places, and parties, wishing them luck. I am doing the grand tour of polling stations then getting some sleep before the count.

Expectations are running high. I am confident of us hitting 99 levels of suppurt in north Wales and probably much higher in some seats including Vale of Clwyd.

Friday looks set to be a very busy day.

I love the sound of whining Tories....

2007-04-26T12:01:00.000-07:00

A week or so ago i spotted the Tory candiate in Aberconwy whining on a website about Plaid's use of the previous result for Conwy (where 80% of the Aberconwy voters were in 2003) and our use of an opinion poll we published.

Got home from a hard day on the campaign trail and found the Tories have a big add on the back of the local free paper.

They have graph showing the predicted result of the general election in Aberconwy. This shows the Tories second. It is an analysis conducted by Rallings and Thresher. Of course the add forgot to mention that the Rallings and Thresher analysis of the likely assembly election result shows Plaid ahead and the Tories third.

To be honest I just thought it shows how desperate the Tories are. Their canddiate missed the big issue (the downgrading of the local hospital) and was silent on it whilst Plaid Cymru were campaigning last summer. Indeed he joined other Tories in their "campaign" against the "bed tax" (which was never going to happen in Wales) instead of fighting the hospital closures. Given tonight and tomorrows opinion polls I suspect the Tories in North Wales regret slavishly following instructions from Central office instead of responding to the needs of the local community.

Opinion Polls: An apology

2007-04-26T11:55:00.000-07:00

In the recent past this blog may have given the impression that getting excited over opinion polls was a bit passe.

Indeed prior to the last poll we may have called into question the validity of opinion polls in Wales.

In the light of tonight and tomorrows opinion polls we would like to say sorry. Clearly opinion polls are very important, very accurate and reflect just what we are seeing in our canvass returns.

Perhaps its the weather....

2007-04-20T11:29:00.000-07:00

Where ever I have been in the last week have had an incredibly friendly welcome. The canvassing returns vary from good to stunning ...but then all candidates say that.

The body language, name recognition etc is very very good. People seem keen for a change and as expected the different campaign ideas we are using this time seem to be working.

Older hands claim that we are having the best response ever...better even than 99. Not having been involved in that campaign I cannot be sure but the feeling in parts of the constituency is the same as in Rhgos on Sea a year ago. The weather is also as good. Virtually everyone says on the doorstep "well at least you have the weather for it".

I have fought one euorpean election 3 westminster elections and four council election campaigns as a canddiate. This is the most enjoyable campaign I have fought for over 20 years.

Campaigning in the sun is fun:)

The NFU Dyserth and back in Denbigh

2007-04-04T13:45:00.000-07:00

Tuesday night I was in a hustings event in Rhuthun hosted by the NFU. In all honesty I was not at my best in a difficult environment. It was fun listening to Mark Young, Matt Wright and Karen Sinclair and I learned a few things listening to the farmers. The most valuable lesson of all however is being reminded of the need to be properly prepared before such events.

Today I was in Rhuddlan then Dyserth delivering leaflets. Shirt sleeve weather and in Dyserth the views were as fantastic as ever.

Another afternoon and evening canvassing in Denbigh decent returns in what would otherwise be a Tory area. The work we have done on the hospital campaign seems to be paying off. We have a big piece in the Rhyl Journal and Denbigh Free Press this week the response to which will be interesting to see.

Various Plaid people now getting excited about Clwyd West as well as Aberconwy. It is clear to me that there is still a significant part of the electorate that will vote, wants Labour out but has yet to decide between the opposition parties. It may come down to who runs the best campaigns over the next few weeks. I suspect there will be very varied results for Plaid. Some parts of the Valleys we are picking up significant support but other areas things are not as positive. Thursday night's opinion poll will be interesting but given that support for all the opposition parties is patchy I wonder how accurate it will be. Mind you if it shows us close to Labour I wont be complaining.

Its finally happening...

2007-04-01T09:13:00.001-07:00

After two years, thousands of leaflets a good few letters to the press, press releases and endless meetings it finally seems like the election proper is here.

I was out in Denbigh asking people to vote for me on Thursday. This is the first actual canvassing we have done in Vale of Clwyd. This is the time that Candidate itus sets in and we all become convinced we are going to win.

It is very easy to get carried away. We were in an area we would expect to do well in and we did. Given that they had not had any of our election literature yet I thought there was potential for some of the genuine undecided to switch our way. There was very clear evidence of switchers from Labour and indications that a few people who have voted Plaid "in the distant past" then voted Labour then stopped voting were likely to come out for us.

Like all candidates I have worked out what vote I need to get where in order to win. Denbigh is a key area for us and I was happy enough with the canvass returns. The key issue will be getting a high enough turn out in our better areas. We have a month to do it and looking at our campaign literature(the best I have everhad in both style and content in any election) am convinced we will be in the hunt.

however I am a candidate and bound to say that. How do I convince both of my readers? Well I have conclusive proof that i am doing all I can throwing everything into the campaign etc to ensure I won. Today I made the ultimate sacrifice...I went out and bought a suit. My wifes comment was "oh you must think you can win if you have spent money on clothes!"

Now I know why they are whinging.....

2007-03-22T12:17:00.000-07:00

The Tories seem to be very upset that Plaid have registered a series of "save our hospital" names with the electoral commission. When people go to vote in the Vale of Clwyd they will have the chance to vote for "Mark David Jones Plaid Cymru-Save our Hospitals" if they so choose. In Aberconwy they can vote for "Gareth Jones Save Llandudno Hospital".

I am struggling to understand why the Tories are so upset. Both the Tories and their buddies in the Labour party have claimed that the hospital campaigns "were cross party". This of course is not really true.

In llandudno there is an action group that is non-party political. However they came into being after Plaid launched our campaign across North wales to save local hospitals. They have done a fantastic job and it is crucial that they try to engage with people from other parties.

In the case of both Abergele and St Asaph hospitals there is no such cross party campaign group. It is Plaid who have led the campaign to save these hospitals from closure and to ease the pressure on Ysbtty Glan Clwyd that will follow.

When Plaid members were out delivering thousands of leaflets across the communities affected and submitting evidence to the various Health bodies where were the Tories?

Well they were campaigning against the "bed tax". Whats that? you may ask. Well last year the Tories tried to terrify us with the prospect of a tax on tourist beds. The idea had been submitted to the Lyons review of local government funding in England.

This review is not law just a set of ideas that may or may not be adopted by a government at some distant point in the future. Whilst we would enthusiastically fight any such proposal none actually exists for Wales and never has. The Tory campaign was not the product of local people responding to a serious threat to the local economy but an identikit campaign handed down from Conservative central office in London. The Lyons review has been published and if the proposal exists in its conclusions I have not seen it reported anywhere.

Health and the future of local hospital services are the number one issues for people in Aberconwy, Clwyd West and Vale of Clwyd. The Tories are now desperately trying to play catch up in Aberconwy and Clwyd West claiming that they too oppose the closures. Their position is rather undermined by the fact the seven Tory AM's failed to vote in a crucial Assembly vote that could have halted the proposed closures and downgrading.

In the Vale of Clwyd the Tory candidate has enough sense to leave the issue alone. He has little choice given that Conservative Councillors voted to close Prestatyn Hospital in the face of massive public opposition.

The reality is that in Central North Wales the Tories missed the biggest issue to confront local people and have tried desperately to jump on the bandwagon. Their recent whinging is just the start. I suspect they will be complaining a great deal over the next few weeks as they realise the public are not impressed with their "me to" tactics.

Tory spin doctors raised the stakes in this campaign with their claims that they will become the second party in Wales (lets leave the paucity of their ambitions aside for the moment) to do this they need to be winning seats in North Wales. Their lack of local knowledge and their inability to operate without instruction from London threatens this limited ambition. No doubt the knives will be out for their Welsh leadership if their failure embarrasses Dave the Toff.

Police cuts to save 6p a week?

2007-03-10T06:17:00.000-08:00

The news that Labour Assembly members in North Wales are campaigning for further cuts in Police services, to save the public six pence per week, is astonishing. For these AM’s to suddenly decide they are against high council tax bills is just bizarre.

Since their best buddy Tony Blair came to power Council Tax bills in England have risen by 90%. A direct comparison in Wales is impossible due to re-banding which resulted in thousands of people facing massive hikes in council tax. Not a squeak was heard from Labours Assembly Members on re-banding.

The Council tax is an awful tax hitting pensioners and low wage families hard. If Labour really cared about anything other than their own survival they would have replaced this wicked tax at some point in the last ten years.

The reality is that the saving of 6p a week will make little difference to households in North Wales further reductions in the police presence would hurt us all. If Labour wish to contest the Assembly elections on a “more police cuts now” programme so be it. If the public are faced with a choice of further Police cuts or paying 6p per week I can guess what their choice will be.

Homes for local letter to Town and community councils

2007-03-04T06:17:00.000-08:00

Over the next few months you will be discussing the Local Development Plan which will set out proposals for housing development in every part of Denbighshire.

I am sure you are as disturbed as I am by reports of proposals for mass developments of housing which have almost no relationship to local need.

I am writing to request that in your response to the statutory consultation by Denbighshire County Council you propose the proportion of affordable housing to be developed be 100% and that all housing developments should be targeted to meet clearly identified local need.

If this proposal were to be adopted it would not mean the end of general development however any proposal that was not for 100% affordable housing could only be adopted “on exception”.

I believe this approach would achieve a number of very desirable outcomes. First it would stop our communities losing their sense of identity and ease the pressure to develop on green field sites. Secondly it would ensure that people already living here would actually be able to afford a home of their own. Thirdly it would help prevent irresponsible landlords purposely developing sites that attract people from afar with significant social problems. Finally it would halt proposals to develop “dormitory” sites for people commuting to North West England thus easing pressure on transport systems and the environment.

I would be happy to meet with you to discuss these proposals and would be interested to hear your response.

the things they say 2

2007-03-04T06:11:00.000-08:00

Attended a hustings organised by the RCN in Llandudno. Gareth Jones is in fine form the Tory and Liberal competent enough.

Asked would she support nurse led walk in centres Denise Idris Jones asked to stunned astonishment "can you get nurses to work at 7:00am" "what do you think we do now " came the response.

A little later came this gem from Denise:

"Why do parents take their children to the doctors in school hours?"

"because the children are ill" came the response.

They things they say...1

2007-03-04T06:05:00.000-08:00

As I was leaving the flat yesterday I bumped into a Labour activist delivering letters for the block. I said to him "dont give me stuff from Denise Idris Jones" he said no problem these are for Labour voters only. Low and behold he had a letter for me I said "I was called from Newcastle and told them I was Plaid. Why am I on your list?" good question he replied. "I keep telling them the list is wrong people are moving away from Labour not towards us!!!!" he told me . I pointed out I was a Plaid candidate he just laughed and told me he thought Gareth Jones was to old. I refrained from saying I thought his candidate was to stupid to be an assembly member.

Its a two horse race?

2007-02-21T14:12:00.000-08:00

Its no great secret that my Lib dem opponent Mark Young and I get on well together. We had a few laughs in the general election when he stood as an Independent and I cannot say I was surprised when he joined the Lib Dems.

He recently posted about opinion polls and claimed the Lib dems were the second party of Wales. He based this on the result of the general election when the LIb dems won four Westminster seats (including Ceredigion from Plaid).

However he neglected to mention that Plaid have twice as many AM's, vastly more councillors and one MEP more than the Lib dems who have none in Wales.

The Assembly election is a "Welsh" election and Plaid will not be drowned out by the British media.

I am not sure Mark's prediction of a two horse race will come true but it certainly made me laugh when I read it.

If the result goes as I expect in Wales as a whole both the LIb dems and the Tories may have leadership problems. If the LIbs remain static on six seats then the tensions in their group will go public (or perhaps they will unite in blaming Lembit!) and if the Tories just swap list seats for constituency seats expect the "be more Welsh" approach to be abandoned and leader Nick Bourne ditched within minutes.

Now you know why Labour are worried

2007-02-13T09:26:00.000-08:00

Have just been doing a bit of number crunching. For those whose head starts to hurt when thinking about numbers I suggest you look away now.

In April 2003 the average of polls for ICM, MORI and YOUGOV gave a reading of :

Labour 44
Con 30.6
Lib 19.6
Other 7.0

These were of course UK wide polls.

The actual result was (adding the Constituency and regional votes together)

Labour 38.3
Con19.5
Plaid 20.5
Lib 13.3
oths 8.0

The current average of the same uk wide polls gives:

Labour 32.6
Con 37.6
Lib 20.0
oth 9.66

Nobody seriously believes that Labour could poll below 30% in an election in Wales. Peter Riddel writing in the Times the other day came to the conclusion there was no "cameron effect" outside of the South of England. The evidence I have seen for myself in terms of canvass returns and the rumours we have of the details of other parties figures suggest that the Tories have not made much headway in Wales for the Assembly elections.

However a Labour vote share of 32.6 would be roughly a six percent swing from labour last time. That feels about right. My guess is that there will be quite significant variation across Wales with huge swings against Labour in some areas(Aberconwy and Clwyd west for example) less in others.

The best the Tories can hope for is swapping list seats for constituencies. This will be "spun" as a big leap forward but in reality they will have made little progress.

1500 Health Jobs go in Leicester.

2007-02-13T07:08:00.000-08:00

Why is a Plaid candidate blogging about job losses in Leicester? Bare with me.

Had a chat the other night with a friend who until very recently held a prominent position in the Health Service in Leicester.The local hospitals have just announced there will be 1500 job losses over a period of years(the exact number I forget). Despite the usual protestations this will not impact on services etc its apparent that there will be very real cuts in services.

So why draw attention to it here? Well the next time you see a letter in the Western mail or a blogg entry claiming that things are better in the Health Service in England spare a thought for people in Caerlear/Leicester. The pressures in England will get worse as more trusts have to finance massive PFI debt repayments at least we have a chance to sort out the problems in Wales without that particular millstone round our knecks.