Golf CLi Blog

2008 PGA Championship

2008-07-30T09:40:00.002-06:00

For the 2008 PGA Championship, the free Golf CLi calculation is run with the following settings:

- Looking at the previous 5 PGA Championship (weights: 15% scoring average, 15% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 60 days leading up to the 2008 PGA Championship (weights: 15% scoring average, 15% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 8 tournaments players have played in leading up to the 2008 British Open (weights: 20% scoring average, 20% earnings average)

This is a different setting to what I used for the U.S. Open and the British Open. The difference is that I am only looking at the past 5 tournaments of the PGA Championship and not 7. As well, I am putting less weight on the results in the past instance of the PGA Championship and more weight on how the players are playing leading up to the event. The reason is because the PGA Championship does not have a trend of player's playing well in the event based upon past instances. Rather the players that are playing well leading up to the event are more apt to play well in this event.

View the Golf CLi rankings as they are updated daily leading up to the tournament.

2008 PGA Championship Open Golf CLi

2008 British Open

2008-07-12T14:32:00.001-06:00

For the 2008 British Open, the free Golf CLi calculation is run with the following settings:

- Looking at the previous 7 British Opens (weights: 20% scoring average, 20% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 60 days leading up to the 2008 British Open (weights: 10% scoring average, 10% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 8 tournaments players have played in leading up to the 2008 British Open (weights: 20% scoring average, 20% earnings average)

This is a similar setting to what I used for the U.S. Open. However, the one change is that I increased the number of tournaments leading up to the event from 6 to 8. I wanted to see if that additional history will help with better predicting results this time.

View the Golf CLi rankings as they are updated daily leading up to the tournament.

2008 British Open Golf CLi

U.S. Open CLi Results

2008-06-19T09:57:00.002-06:00

The U.S. Open was packed with a lot of entertainment for all golf lovers. So the tournament attracted a huge viewing base, which should help the TV channels and Internet sites that follow golf.

As for how the CLi did with predicting the results of the U.S. Open, take a look below:

Rank		Player	CLi	Rank				Earnings
Rank		Player	CLi	Rd4	Rd3	Rd2	Rd1	Actual
1	S	Phil Mickelson	7.40	18	47	35	12	$87,230
2	S	Vijay Singh	13.70	65	70	65	12	$16,514
3	S	Anthony Kim	14.90	26	24	65	49	$61,252
4	S	Sergio Garcia	17.00	18	11	35	85	$87,230
5	S	Justin Leonard	20.20	36	47	42	64	$35,709
6	S	Stewart Cink	20.90	14	47	22	19	$122,159
7	S	Geoff Ogilvy	21.50	9	4	9	3	$160,769
8	S	Stephen Ames	23.50	58	70	49	49	$18,664
9	S	Jim Furyk	27.60	36	19	22	49	$35,709
10	S	Robert Allenby	28.70	18	6	9	7	$87,230
11	S	Ryuji Imada	29.80	18	24	65	49	$87,230
12	S	Tim Clark	30.10	48	24	22	31	$23,985
13	S	Boo Weekley	31.20	26	24	65	31	$61,252
14	S	Mike Weir	31.20	18	11	42	31	$87,230
15	S	Tiger Woods	32.00	1	1	2	19	$1,350,000

Overall, the CLi did well for this major tournament. Here are a few of the things that I have highlighted:

average ranking: 27.3
lowest ranking: 1 (Woods)
highest ranking: 65 (Singh)
cli average 23.3; as compared to 8 if they were ranked 1-15 in the tournament.
that difference of 15 is very low, and very good
the average ranking was only 4 points higher than the average of the Cli for the top 15
that difference of 19 between the actual ranks is also very good and very low. This is especially true seeing that only 2 players were in the top 10 (1st -- Woods, and 9th -- Ogilvy) -- meaning not many were in the top 10. only 2 in the top 10, which is 20%. in and of itself, that is not very good as it would be better to have 40-50% in the top 10. that is the only negative for the cli results this week.
all made the cut
they combined to earn $2,32,163, with an average of $153,810 between the 15 players. that compares to the top 15 spots in the U.S. Open earning close to $5 million. $5 million is 66.7% of the total $7.5 million purse for the tournament. $2.32 million is 31% of the tournament's total purse.

2008 U.S. Open

2008-06-06T08:53:00.005-06:00

For the 2008 U.S. Open, the free Golf CLi calculation is run with the following settings:

- Looking at the previous 7 U.S. Opens (weights: 20% scoring average, 20% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 60 days leading up to the 2008 U.S. Open (weights: 10% scoring average, 10% earnings average)

- Looking at the previous 6 tournaments players have played in leading up to the 2008 U.S. Open (weights: 20% scoring average, 20% earnings average)

View the Golf CLi rankings as they are updated daily leading up to the tournament.

2008 U.S. Open Golf CLi

Golf CLi widget using Widgetbox

2008-03-04T11:29:00.002-07:00

I am trying out the services of Widgetbox to see if I can create a widget for the Golf CLi that allows users to show the Golf CLi results on their web site, desktop (html) and blog.

Today I have posted a simple widget for the Golf CLi here:

http://www.widgetbox.com/widget/golfcli

Below I have embedded the widget to show how it looks. It is basic, but works. Thanks Widgetbox.

The variables that can be configured with the widget are:

tour_id (a tour id, default is 1 which is the US PGA Tour)

tournament_id (a tournament id from the GolfInvestors system, default is blank to get the most current tournament)

num_players_show (a number, default is 5)

show_player_pic (Y/N, default is N)

Let me know what needs to be changed in the widget to make it more useful.

2007 Wyndham Championship (Updated)

2007-08-14T16:25:00.000-06:00

There have been a number of changes made to the field since yesterday for the Wyndham Championship. So am rerunning the Golf CLi for the tournament today.

The updated Golf CLi for the Wyndham Championship has been calculated now. Below are the results for the top 15 players this week in the Golf CLi. This is the CLi as of Tuesday afternoon at 4:30pm MDT USA.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Charles Warren	4.40
2	Joe Ogilvie	10.55
3	Jonathan Byrd	12.90
4	Michael Allen	17.15
5	Lucas Glover	17.35
6	Tim Herron	19.00
7	Ryan Palmer	19.35
8	Kevin Sutherland	20.60
9	Jason Dufner	20.90
10	Kent Jones	22.20
11	Charlie Wi	23.55
12	Briny Baird	23.95
13	Chris Couch	24.05
14	Carl Pettersson	27.25
15	Brian Davis	28.60

As with the Golf CLi calculations done yesterday for this tournament, the configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Wyndham Championship is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	25%	25%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	5%	5%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

This configuration is my usual default configuration.

2007 Wyndham Championship

2007-08-13T20:07:00.000-06:00

It has been awhile since I posted a blog entry on Golf CLi. Am trying to get back into it now with the Wyndham Championship.

The Wyndham Championship Golf CLi has been calculated now. Below are the results for the top 15 players this week in the Golf CLi. This is the CLi as of Monday morning at 9am MDT USA.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Charles Warren	4.80
2	K.J. Choi	5.05
3	Joe Ogilvie	11.65
4	Steve Flesch	13.35
5	Jonathan Byrd	13.40
6	Michael Allen	20.00
7	Lucas Glover	20.35
8	Tim Herron	21.05
9	Ryan Palmer	21.45
10	Kevin Sutherland	22.40
11	Jason Dufner	23.80
12	Charlie Wi	25.85
13	Kent Jones	25.95
14	Briny Baird	27.55
15	Chris Couch	28.00

The configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Wyndham Championship is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	25%	25%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	5%	5%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

This configuration is my usual default configuration.

2007 Johnnie Walker Classic

2007-02-28T08:17:00.000-07:00

Below are the top 15 players in the CLi (Confidence Level Indicator) for the 2007 Johnnie Walker Classic that is taking place this week in Thailand. This is the CLi as of Wednesday morning at 9am MST USA.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	1.40
2	Retief Goosen	7.50
3	Richard Sterne	8.50
4	Colin Montgomerie	9.30
5	Ross Fisher	9.40
6	Paul Casey	10.20
7	Ignacio Garrido	18.00
8	Shiv Kapur	18.40
9	Thongchai Jaidee	21.00
10	David Smail	21.40
11	Peter Hanson	22.40
12	David Lynn	24.10
13	Francesco Molinari	24.30
14	Simon Dyson	31.20
15	Adam Scott	32.20

The configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Johnnie Walker Classic is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	20%	20%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	10%	10%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

Normally I would make the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" be 25% for both "Scoring Average Weights" and "Earning Average Weights". However, since the Johnnie Walker is being played on a different course (one that has been played on in the past for this tournament) in a new country (in Thailand, where as last year it is was in Perth, Australia), past results in this tournament should be valued less. So the overall weight for the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" is adjusted down from 50% (25% + 25%) to 40% (20% + 20%).

Normally I would have discounted the previous tournament results even further as it is in a different country then last year. However, the tournament has been played on this course in Thailand (Blue Canyon) before. So there is some history that players can use as a result of this.

With these settings, as one can see, Els, Goosen, Sterne, Montgomerie, and Fisher have the best chance of playing well. All of these players have a CLi below 10. With these players' CLi being below 10, the chance of them playing up to par as it relates to the CLi is rather good. The lower the CLi, the better the CLi calculation is for a tournament.

2007 Honda Classic

2007-02-27T08:15:00.001-07:00

Below are the top 15 players in the CLi (Confidence Level Indicator) for the 2007 Honda Classic that is taking place this week. This is the CLi as of Tuesday morning at 9am MST USA.

Rank	Player	CLi
1	Jim Furyk	3.50
2	David Toms	8.30
3	Padraig Harrington	8.80
4	Robert Allenby	9.10
5	Peter Lonard	10.20
6	Davis Love III	12.80
7	Billy Mayfair	15.20
8	Fred Funk	19.40
9	Dudley Hart	19.80
10	Lucas Glover	23.60
11	Brett Quigley	25.50
12	Matt Kuchar	27.00
13	Cliff Kresge	28.00
14	Mark Calcavecchia	28.40
15	Luke Donald	31.50

The configuration used for the calculation of the Golf CLi for the Honda Classic is as follows:

	#	Scoring Avg Weights	Earning Avg Weights
# of Past Tournaments Looking Back:	5	20%	20%
# of Days Looking Back:	30	10%	10%
# of Tournaments Looking Back:	4	20%	20%

Normally I would make the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" be 25% for both "Scoring Average Weights" and "Earning Average Weights". However, since the Honda is being played on a new course this year, past results in this tournament should be valued less. So the overall weight for the "Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back" is adjusted down from 50% (25% + 25%) to 40% (20% + 20%).

With these settings, as one can see, Furyk, Toms, Harrington, Allenby, and Lonard have the best chance of playing well. All but one of these players have a CLi below 10, with Lonard's CLi being 10.20. With these players' CLi being below 10, the chance of them playing up to par as it relates to the CLi is rather good. The lower the CLi, the better the CLi calculation is for a tournament.

2007 Accenture World Golf Championship Match Play: CLi Monday Quarterbacking

2007-02-26T13:30:00.000-07:00

Ok, now it is time to look back at how the Golf CLi calculation did with the 2007 Accenture Match Play. Take a look below at the Golf CLi with the players final rankings for the tournament in the "RD6" column.

Rank	Player	CLi	Rd6
1	Tiger Woods	1.50	9
2	Phil Mickelson	7.90	17
3	Henrik Stenson	10.00	1
4	Robert Allenby	11.60	33
5	Retief Goosen	12.50	17
6	David Toms	13.00	9
7	Charles Howell III	15.90	9
8	Nick O'Hern	16.20	5
9	Padraig Harrington	16.40	17
10	Davis Love III	16.50	33
11	Jim Furyk	16.60	17
12	Ernie Els	16.70	33
13	John Rollins	16.80	33
14	Colin Montgomerie	17.90	17
15	Vijay Singh	19.80	17

The glaring result is that the CLi had Henrik Stenson 3rd in the CLi rankings, who won the tournament. That is not bad to have Stenson that far up in the list just behind Woods and Mickelson, who were both 2 of the normal favorites in the tournament. The CLi for Stenson was 10.00. So this means the CLi thought he had a good chance of placing in the top 10. Sure enough, he won.

Looking at the top 10 players in the CLi rankings, the resulting rankings of the players was equal or better for 8 of the 15 players (53%), with 1 of the players in the list winning the tournament.

So the precentage was not all that great, but it was good to have a winner in the list.

2007 Mayakob Classic: CLi Monday Quarterbacking

2007-02-26T13:22:00.000-07:00

Now it is time to look back at how the Golf CLi calculation did with the 2007 Mayakob Classic. Take a look below at the Golf CLi with the players rankings for each of the 4 rounds played.

Rank	Player	CLi	Rd4	Rd3	Rd2	Rd1
1	Fred Funk	1.50	1	1	1	1
2	Brandt Snedeker	3.00	48	56	68	97
3	Mark Calcavecchia	3.50	41	75	59	56
4	Dudley Hart	5.50	48	56	36	24
5	Ryuji Imada	8.00	31	39	24	56
6	Ted Purdy	8.25	48	56	49	14
7	Andrew Buckle	8.75	MC	MC	117	97
8	Craig Kanada	9.00	26	22	17	14
9	Matt Kuchar	10.25	18	56	59	73
10	Vaughn Taylor	10.75	55	56	24	6
11	Peter Lonard	14.50	3	3	7	6
12	Bill Haas	15.25	5	7	4	9
13	Charlie Wi	15.25	MC	MC	98	97
14	Omar Uresti	21.75	MC	MC	110	136
15	Glen Day	22.00	70	75	24	14

For this tournament, the CLi did good in the aspect of picking Fred Funk to play well. The CLi through he had a 65% chance of placing in the top 2 since his CLi was 1.50. And sure enough, he won the tournament...even at the ripe age of 50.

However, for the 15 players in the list, the CLi struggled overall. Only 3 out of the 15 players bettered their CLi, while 12 finished worse than their CLi. Of those 12, 3 missed the cut. One of the goals of the CLi top 15 is to have all 15 players make the cut. It didn't happen in this tournament.

Starting the Golf CLi Blog

2007-02-26T13:18:00.000-07:00

Ok, here we go. Am going to start posting blog entries relative to the Golf CLi calculations and how they do as it relates to the actual tournament results. So expect to see several postings each week to talk about the Golf CLi calculations as they are generated for tournaments during that week. Then also expect some interim postings on thoughts about the results --- i.e. if the Golf CLi calculation for a tournament was on the mark or way off.

Also, am looking for comments and feedback from users on each posting so we get some interaction going. As well, it will help me know if this blog is even worth the time or not. :-)