tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-199545082009-02-21T10:14:30.580+01:00Security, Development, Government and More from a Scandinavian Perspective.Draconian Observationshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14572473903730165913noreply@blogger.comBlogger167125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-72971144824185510042008-04-30T08:21:00.002+02:002008-04-30T08:30:23.452+02:00

Is public diplomacy an information operation? It would seem some folks at Pentagon OSD thought so. The New York Times piece on how ex-military analysts were briefed by Pentagon in the period before the Iraq war should perhaps come as little surprise. But neither should the reaction. It isn't rocket science: Nobody likes to get fooled. And deliberate attempts at doing so will only undermine the

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-87024037488815395542008-04-28T23:24:00.003+02:002008-04-28T23:30:11.589+02:00

Africom has caught the eye of the ever-decent CRS guys:The 1998 bombing of U.S. embassies in East Africa highlighted the threat of terrorism to U.S. interests on the continent. Political instability and civil wars have created vast ungoverned spaces, areas in which some experts allege that terrorist groups may train and operate. Instability also heightens human suffering and retards economic

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-69886217974600134832008-04-15T07:28:00.008+02:002008-04-15T07:59:14.174+02:00

One of the cold war's major and paradoxical features was always the role of President Eisenhower's military-industrial complex: A sort of cabale of production and R&D and procurement - all dedicated to the cause of freedom, its defense and progress. During the 1990s, and as a result of the post-Vietnam willful doctrinal blindness, this setup had resulted in a tech-driven approach to war. One of

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-65910013726653955842008-04-14T17:57:00.006+02:002008-04-14T18:11:27.580+02:00

In the new issue of Armed Forces Journal, John Nagl argues that we should focus more on host nation training units to meet the demands of the long war. Incidentally, that is one of the things that the new, no-longer-Shaping but CSE or Cooperative Security & Engagement JOC from JFCOM will be about (more on that debacle in this post). The operational elements of this in terms of major conflicts was

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-38396900121161295132008-04-11T13:56:00.005+02:002008-04-11T17:28:41.600+02:00

The Economist has picked up on Africom, but seems not to accept one basic premise of Africom. Namely, that American and African interests may coincide a long way when it comes to protecting globalization: Helpful though these efforts are in a dirt-poor country, they were also a public-relations exercise to persuade suspicious African governments to welcome America's planned Africa Command (

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-32377476299745568382008-04-08T20:55:00.007+02:002008-12-10T08:27:23.558+01:00

There's a new UN CIV-MIL handbook out. The focus is kind of a field manual level - the full title is "The United Nations Civil-Military Coordination (UN-CMCoord) Officer Field Handbook". The manual was funded and initiative was taken by both OCHA and the EU's 'ministry' (Directorate General, DG) for humanitarian aid:Jointly launched by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-57332240937344048742008-04-08T10:32:00.006+02:002008-04-08T11:00:03.625+02:00

Unless we understand global politics as a question of the gradual spread of the modern state, we won't get far in understanding patterns of conflict (such as Collier's conflict trap) or the 'state of other people's state). Tom Barnett has a fine piece (Remember when America wasn't so democratic?) on this in the case of the gradual enshrinement of the democratic tradition in the US: Americans

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-43189617879764327262008-04-07T09:26:00.005+02:002008-04-07T12:04:00.361+02:00

According to DangerRoom some people at Pentagon now try to predict (at least parts of the) future through some advanced social science: The University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science just announced that it's been awarded a $7.5 million grant to work in this fast emerging field of network science, which melds everything from mathematics to sociology. Network science is

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-22660965944680647272008-04-01T13:57:00.007+02:002008-04-01T14:33:37.989+02:00

Strategies for dealing with the poppy economy in Afghanistan exist (like this recent one by WB/DfID: Afghanistan: Economic Incentives and Development Initiatives to Reduce Opium Production) but have been notoriously difficult to implement.*Poppies matter in Afghanistan. Can Afghanistan be "fixed" without fixing the poppy economy? Probably not. But is that question actually relevant at all? Do we

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-33101000824086561332008-03-24T17:56:00.006+01:002008-03-24T18:11:32.698+01:00

In a comment, Wiggins at Opposed Systems Design asked how the CRS report on US interventions abroad from 1798-2007 would make one reconsider the Core/Gap concept. Stealing this from my answer in his comments, I'd say that I didn’t mean "reconsider" in the sense of “thinking about discarding”, more like “think about again in broader/historical context”.The Map was made as an extrapolation of data

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-29149377703996412112008-03-23T14:36:00.007+01:002008-12-10T08:27:24.099+01:00

The need for military capabilities other than the perceived essential task of warfighting is evident - indeed it has been central to e.g. what the Marine Corps and the US Army have been doing in practice since at least the mid 19th century.This is something that the Navy and Marine Corps has always done,. LeFevre said, "and now we’re planning doing it."Indeed, the Marine Corps is now counting on

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-18592916944169855102008-03-21T17:15:00.007+01:002008-04-04T22:41:20.868+02:00

(This post is a follow up to yesterday's post, found here).Why do I think that the apparent change in ambitions regarding the Shaping/CSE JOC is a missed opportunity?First, a rehash of events. 1) Iraq: Invasion goes fine. Phase IV/Stabilization and Reconstruction plus handover does not. 2) December 2005, Gordon England signs DoD Directive 3000.05 which puts S&R on par with major combat operations

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-50044545364607580762008-03-21T01:46:00.011+01:002008-12-10T08:27:26.977+01:00

(NB! There's a follow up to this post, here.)The US Defense establishment does not want to do development any more. Or maybe a bit anyway. Those are the signals coming out from JFCOM concerning the - still - coming JOC on 'Shaping'.* Except for the the fact that it will no longer be called 'Shaping' but the much less ambitious 'Military Support to Cooperative Security'. In principle the ambition

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-65366929607516042232008-03-19T17:43:00.005+01:002008-03-19T18:29:17.301+01:00

The text is finally out, here. It is fairly brief, and structured this way: This strategy (...) sets out the guiding principles of our approach (Chapter Two); our assessment of the major security challenges and drivers of insecurity (Chapter Three); our responses to them (Chapter Four); and how we will work together in taking the strategy forward (Chapter Five).Content: Chapter One:

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-7167601188108508412008-03-19T08:33:00.010+01:002008-03-19T09:11:21.239+01:00

The brilliant and insightful Charlie Edwards at GlobalDashboard Monday told us all about today's announcement (not, its not out as of yet) of the new UK National Security Strategy:This Wednesday the British Government will publish the UK’s first ever National Security Strategy. This is a big moment for Gordon Brown and comes with great expectations. Don’t be surprised if there is no Minister on

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-91128855549365642632008-03-01T02:13:00.006+01:002008-03-01T02:48:06.556+01:00

Amazingly, USAF actually awarded its huge ($40 bn) air tanker contract to the Northrop/EADS consortium. According to the Economist, the best man won then. Except that McCain might actually take a beating according to the above analysis - for standing up for US taxpayers: Republican Presidential hopeful Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) was an early and fierce critic of Boeing's lease scheme. McCain,

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-51452871660308446912008-02-29T18:53:00.007+01:002008-02-29T23:57:16.627+01:00

Light blogging over the weekend, but next week there should be stuff on missile defense and perhaps other things as I will be going to DC. So just two small links. First, while looking up details on conscription and its alternatives this oldish ComingAnarchy post popped up - with British, Russian and Ukrainian "join the army" ads. Not very subtle stuff, especially the Ukrainian.Second, France's

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-76419646805605769962008-02-27T20:43:00.009+01:002008-02-27T21:09:13.542+01:00

Last post today. Just had to recommend Barnett's latest on State Dept and SSTR:I've been hearing a lot about this memo from various political appointees and senior bureaucrats recently, with everyone saying it would be a big deal when it hit the Net. Well, now it's here and while it is truly damning, to me it's just another nail in the coffin of the idea, promoted by the HELP Commission, that

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-1018108231036426552008-02-27T20:31:00.007+01:002008-02-27T20:42:02.497+01:00

New Army Field Manual out: This time including SSTR. No time to look at it in detail now, defensetech has the preview here:...the manual has finally taken the step of elevating stabilization operations to the level of offensive and defensive ops. (...) Chapter 3 is the most important chapter in the book; describing the Army's operational concept -- full spectrum operations. Full spectrum

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-30656365510137710862008-02-27T20:06:00.005+01:002008-02-27T20:18:12.728+01:00

One major fault line in global politics is the Chinese foreign policy dictum of non-interference vs. the West-sponsored human rights/enlightenment line which is for e.g. humanitarian interventions or at least believes in the right to humanitarian assistance, i.e. in moral imperatives. (More on China's foreign policy doctrine in this old post and more on China in Darfur in this post).China might

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-44767633164253698122008-02-27T14:03:00.005+01:002008-02-27T20:19:58.659+01:00

For Scandinavian speakers, Norwegian National Television (NRK) broadcast an interesting documentary yesterday. It is a real behind-the-scenes-look at the as of yet not finished decision process about whether to replace the F16s in Norway (a parallel process goes on in Denmark and Holland).Eurofighter left the three-way competition just before christmas, apparently convinced that they were not

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-47813640862311578322008-02-26T14:53:00.003+01:002008-02-26T14:59:53.570+01:00

True to form we not only repeat the TicTacs but also the referrals to MountainRunner who's got the latest inside info on the new African Command. E.g.: I attended USC's AFRICOM conference earlier this month and between panel discussions and offline conversations, I came away with a new appreciation (and hope) for the newest, and very different, command.This is not like the other Combatant

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-79034881645447733742008-02-25T22:30:00.007+01:002008-02-26T00:48:04.080+01:00

Fittingly, somehow, we return to fore with another round of TicTacs. Not so much because these are tiny sweet bits of info, but because that's where we left off.McCain elaborates on the 100-year remark on Iraq. You have to admire his frankness - even though I'd think the base issue has not been bilateraly resolved.Danish aerospace expert Karsten Marrup reads into the shooting down of the

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-14067507300275964372007-07-17T10:03:00.000+02:002007-07-17T17:34:47.409+02:00

Just a quick round up of a couple of central things going on:Exit Strategies.Would Iran Take Over Iraq? Would Al-Qaeda? The Debate About How and When to Leave Centers on What Might Happen After the U.S. Goes.Two GOP Senators Defy Bush On Iraq. Warner, Lugar Propose Troop RedeploymentU.S. Official Defends Pakistan's Efforts Against Al-QaedaBarnett on AFRICOM: The Americans Have LandedThe New NIE (

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19954508.post-57187379156886876192007-07-10T17:30:00.000+02:002007-07-10T18:28:36.092+02:00

There's a huge need for a civilian planning capacity related to SSTR and post-conflict situations (I have written about this before). This need may be the single most important element in the organizational transformation need to prepare ourselves for the next time around.This blog often takes an American perspective - or looks primarily at American developments. This is because US leadership is

Draconian Observationsnoreply@blogger.com0