Foresight and Futurism

Executive Bonus "Outrage" Update

2009-06-04T21:36:00.002-05:00

I wanted to post the replies I got from my U.S. Senators in Pennsylvania when I wrote to them regarding my feelings about the tax policy being directed toward the executives who received bonuses at companies that received bailout funds. This was in an earlier post.

From Senator Bob Casey:

Dear Mr. Anderson:

Thank you for taking the time to share your concerns about the government's investment in the American International Group (AIG). I appreciate hearing from you.

AIG provides insurance across the economy to countless companies, major banks and even pension funds. Many believe the failure of AIG could cause the failure of many of the institutions it insures. Therefore, since the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) began last fall, the federal government has provided AIG with approximately $173 billion to prevent a systemic collapse within our financial system.

Given the fact that AIG necessitated a life line, I am outraged by the recent awarding of $165 million in retention bonuses to executives in the very same division that wrote trillions of dollars of credit default swaps, the risky and complex financial derivatives that nearly brought down the company. This division is responsible for the near collapse of AIG.

I find it inconceivable that these bonuses could be warranted based on any fair or rational metric of executive performance. The company has suggested that these bonuses were not performance based but retention based. However, a number of these executives are no longer with the company. These payments are simply unjustifiable.

Recently, I sent Edward Liddy, CEO of AIG, a letter demanding a detailed accounting of those who received these bonuses and their involvement with credit default swaps and other risky derivatives. More to the point, I implored Mr. Liddy to ask that executives in AIG's Financial Products division forego their bonuses. If they are unwilling to do so, I believe they should be fired. The taxpayers cannot trust those who profit from their own poor decisions to effectively turn around the company.

We must recoup these bonuses. I hope that those who received these unwarranted payouts do the right thing and return the money. If they fail to do so, I am working with my colleagues in the Senate to craft legislation that will get the money back.

Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future about this or any other matter of importance to you.

If you have access to the Internet, I encourage you to visit my web site, http://casey.senate.gov. I invite you to use this online office as a comprehensive resource to stay up-to-date on my work in Washington, request assistance from my office or share with me your thoughts on the issues that matter most to you and to Pennsylvania.

Sincerely,
Bob Casey
United States Senator

From Senator Arlen Specter:

Dear Mr. Anderson:

Thank you for contacting my office regarding bonuses going to employees of American International Group (AIG). I appreciate your views on the matter.

On January 15, 2009, I voted against releasing the final $350 billion installment of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). I was dissatisfied with the way the first $350 billion had been spent, specifically the failure to deal with the home mortgage issue, the ineffectiveness in restoring normal lending to consumers and businesses, and the lack of transparency and accountability. I was concerned that unless steps were taken to significantly improve oversight and transparency of the TARP program, it would be difficult to determine whether Congress was not simply throwing good money after bad in releasing the final $350 billion. Even with my support, the resolution to bar release of the funds (S.J. Res.5) was defeated 42-52, and the remaining funds have been released to the Department of the Treasury.

Since that time, it has come to light that AIG used money it received through the Treasury's financial rescue programs to pay approximately $165 million in bonuses to nearly 400 AIG executives and traders. In response to the news, the House of Representatives introduced legislation on March 18, 2009 that would impose a 90% tax on bonuses paid to employees making over $250,000 a year by firms receiving federal financial assistance. The bill passed the House one day later 328-93. At the same time in the Senate, Senators Baucus and Grassley introduced legislation imposing - on both the corporation and the individual - a 35% excise tax on retention bonuses as well as any other bonuses in excess of $50,000.

To date, no further action has been taken on either piece of legislation; however, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has since announced that many of the AIG employees have returned their bonuses.

On March 31, 2009, Neil M. Barofsky, the Special Inspector General for TARP, testified before the Senate Finance Committee that Treasury has been lax in requiring information from banks receiving federal funding. In the absence of action by the Treasury Department to impose satisfactory reporting requirements on participating financial institutions, I cosponsored legislation in early January requiring participating financial institutions to provide detailed, publically available quarterly reports to the Treasury outlining how the funds have been used. The bill, The Troubled Asset Recovery Program Transparency Reporting Act (S. 133), also requires that TARP funds not be used for lobbying expenditures or political contributions. Finally, the legislation requires the Treasury Secretary to develop and publish corporate governance principles and ethical guidelines for TARP recipients, including, but not limited to, restrictions governing the hosting, sponsorship, or payments for conferences and events, and expenses relating to entertainment or similar ancillary corporate expenses. Violators of this legislation would be subject to civil penalties including fines and could become ineligible for any future emergency economic assistance.

Again, thank you for writing. The concerns of my constituents are of great importance to me, and I rely on you and other Pennsylvanians to inform me of your views. If I can be of further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact my office or visit my website at http://specter.senate.gov.

Sincerely,
Arlen Specter

Economic Stimulus Is The Path To Ruin

2009-06-04T21:20:00.002-05:00

Did you happen to see Bernanke Freaks Out About Obama's Spending and Debt Plans on Yahoo Finance. We are taking on National Debt to GDP ratios that haven't been seen since WWII. You might say, "We did it before, why can't we do it again?" I'll tell you why - We are not the victors in a world war this time. The economic stimulus, if you can call it that, is not being spent on things that are going to increase GDP. The money is not being invested wisely. It's like being unemployed, unable to pay your mortgage, and going out to dinner at a fancy restaurant and paying for it on a credit card. The only way that this kind of borrowing could be justified is if it is being invested in things that are going to increase the United States' productivity. Unfortunately it is not being spent that way. Also, the world was much different at the end of WWII. We didn't have the comeptition that have today. Europe was rebuilding after being bombed out, Japan was devastated, India was still under British colonial rule, and China was still emerging from feudalism and Japanese oppression. I simply don't see how the U.S. is going to get out of this one. Sorry to be so negative, just keep praying for a miracle.

Outrage and Class Warfare

2009-03-22T15:08:00.003-05:00

The actions of the U.S. Congress this past week prompted me to write both of my senators, Robert Casey and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. I am outraged by the risks that are being taken with the future of the rule of law in the United States. The so called "Outrage" over the AIG executive bonuses that is prompting attempts at nullification of contracts written by the government. The actions being taken are an abuse of power and will undermine confidence in doing business in the U.S. and will erode the foundations of the law system. Also, the rhetoric of government officials and the press run the risk of starting a class war. Below are the contents of the message I sent to the senators:

Please vote against H.R.1586
Title: To impose an additional tax on bonuses received from certain TARP recipients.

The AIG executives may not deserve bonuses, but creating this law is wrong. Two wrongs do not make a right. This pithy saying contains truth and wisdom. Please show wisdom by not passing this into law. It would create a precedent that in too many ways resembles a regime of oppressive government control. This type of governance is scarily close to the type of lawmaking done in Zimbabwe concerning land reform in 1999. Do you want the U.S. to look like Zimbabwe 10 years from now? Please consider the long-term and multiple-order (2nd, 3rd, 4th) consequences of your actions and vote NO.

Technorati Tags:
AIG, Zimbabwe, abuse of power, class warfare

Barack Obama Selling His Presidential Clout for a Pittance

2009-03-17T10:59:00.005-05:00

The latest news to come out of the amateur hour at the White House is that the President along with his sidekick, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, are going to pursue every legal avenue to block bonuses to AIG executives. The bonus total comes to a piddly $165 million. This is a drop in the bucket compared to the billions that have been spent on the financial market bailout. Although the thought of the executives who wrecked the economy getting bonuses is unsettling, I think that Washington has bigger problems to deal with. I bet the latest pork-laden omnibus bill that the President signed contained more that $165 million in wasteful spending. What if there are no legal avenues to prevent the bonuses, then what? This new administration will have a lot of egg it will need to wipe from its face.

Technorati Tags:
Barack Obama
, Timothy Geithner
, AIG

Alternative Robot Visions

2009-03-16T11:21:00.003-05:00

If you've been watching the latest tech news you've probably already seen the HRP-4C 'fashion model robot' from Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. If you haven't, Pink Tentacle has some good photos and video demonstrating what it can do. It's amazing to see the difference in robotics philosophy between Japan and the United States. The HRP-4C is a 5'2" tall bipedal humanoid. Meanwhile, robots in the U.S. are very industrial looking and are designed for specialized tasks. To see what I mean just look at the Carnegie Mellon University Robotic Institute's website. This is one of the most advanced robotics programs in the U.S. Also, take a look at the Packbot on iRobot's website. The domestic "robots" that iRobot makes are simply appliances that are not much different from your dishwasher or clothes washer machine. Aside from hobbyists who like to compete in BattleBot competions most other robotic development in the U.S. revolves around unmanned military vehicles used for war. So while the Japanese are making robots that are designed to live among us in our world, the U.S. is focused on how to destroy people in a world that it is against.

Technorati Tags:
iRobot
, HRP-4C
, BattleBots

Saving Money is New (Old) Idea

2009-01-05T21:57:00.003-05:00

On President-Elect Obama’s first day in Washington the talk focused on an economic stimulus plan. The news about the plan is now focusing more on tax cuts than any great public works programs. The idea is to get Americans to go out and blow their money on things they don’t need in order to stimulate an economy that was based on the false premise of consumerism to build prosperity. Well, the change occurring in America may not be the change that Mr. Obama had envisioned during his campaign. In fact, he has nothing to do with the change that is occurring. America is in the midst of a paradigm shift. Citizens will no longer be fooled by the empty promise that more things will bring them happiness. A secondary effect will hopefully be less stuff going to landfills too.

Government stimulus is a very ineffective way to bring change. As you can see from Donella Meadows’ work, Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System, taxes and subsidies are at the bottom of the list. At the top of the list is a change in mindset or paradigm. The financial meltdown is forcing Americans to think differently about what they value. This may well be the beginning of the Fourth Turning where new ideas will emerge. Perhaps it will be a new form of economics based on the principles of Natural Capitalism and saving money will take on a whole new meaning and once again be in vogue.

Technorati Tags:
Obama, natural+capitalism, saving+money, fourth+turning, donella+meadows, leverage+points

Change In Wind Direction

2008-07-09T22:02:00.002-05:00

Within the past couple of days a couple of high profile names have been making headlines concerning wind power: T. Boone Pickens and Philippe Starck. Pickens has been on every major network announcing his plans to build a wind farm in Texas. Starck is making stylish, designer windmills. Before Pickens was all over TV I read about his intentions in the June issue of Fast Company. The Pickens that you see is a much sanitized version of the Pickens in this article. If you want to know what’s really going on with energy read the article. He's "on the money", literally and figuratively.

Technorati Tags:
design
, sustainability
, energy

Announcing The Laurel Highlands Foresight Institute

2008-07-09T21:38:00.001-05:00

Soon this blog will be converted into the "Founder’s Blog" linked to the Laurel Highlands Foresight Institute’s website. I have taken a long hiatus from this website in order to find inspiration and direction. In this time I have founded this new company with the mission of improving the human standard of living in ways that are in harmony with and beneficial to the natural environment of the planet by providing education, products, and services for advancing energy efficiency and environmentally sustainable practices. Stay tuned for the cutover time and the official launching of the site.

Where are the Flying Cars?

2007-10-07T21:15:00.000-05:00

I’m about to risk any credibility that I might have by talking about this, but I’m going to do it anyway. Futurists get asked, “Where are the Flying Cars?” all the time so I’ll put in my two cents. The October 2007 issue of Popular Mechanics magazine had a one page article giving the latest progress on the flying car, so I feel compelled to talk about it. I bought the magazine while I was camping in my in-law’s RV. This thing is something like 30 feet long, has 3 slide-outs to expand the interior room, has automatic leveling gear that descends from under the vehicle, and too many other features to name. It’s probably even more advanced than most of our permanent homes. For instance, the refrigerator can run on propane or electricity. Can yours do that? Mine can’t. In any case, my point is that we can build very sophisticated vehicles. So why don’t we have flying cars? Short answer – they’re just not practical.

Think about it, do you really want your average person zipping around overhead? I know I don’t want cars driving over my house anymore than I want the present cars driving through my yard. I have enough air traffic from the small airplanes and helicopters that are already in the air. Therefore, flying cars would have to stay on designated paths (i.e. roads). We would probably just use the same pathways we have now. If this is the case we wouldn’t get anywhere any faster than we already do. Sure, a flying car might be able to achieve higher speeds than a wheeled car, but the cars we drive now are capable of higher speeds than we are allowed to or can safely drive. Another thing that makes a flying car impractical is that it would require more energy to stay suspended in the air than to sit on the ground. With the energy situation being as it is flying cars aren’t the prudent choice unless there is an advantage of great magnitude which I have yet to see.

Blogging from Bar Harbor

2007-09-19T20:13:00.000-05:00

I’ve been vacation in Bar Harbor, Maine this past week. This is my fourth visit to Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park in 12 years. My wife, Cindy, and I honeymooned here and we made it back for our 12th anniversary. While one of the best things about Acadia is its timeless beauty that changes in terms of geological time and not Internet time the Internet has not missed the island. For one thing, I enjoyed wireless access to the Internet from the campground where we parked our RV. There are wireless hotspots all over the island including the city park in Bar Harbor. Twelve years ago I would have been lucky to find a 33 kbps modem connection. Another interesting memory involves the use of cell phones. When Cindy and I were on our honeymoon we attempted to make a call on our cell phone from Cleftstone Manor, the Bed and Breakfast we were staying at. The phone was in a leather case about the size of 8x10x2 inches. When we dialed our number an operator came on the line and asked us if we were sure we really wanted to complete the connection because it would be very expensive. We she told us the cost we decided that the phone call was not worth it. Today we can call for free as long as we are within our allowance on our plan’s minutes.

One of the first activities we did on the island, because it was a rainy day, was to visit the Seal Cove Auto Museum. It was really thought provoking to see how the designs and the technology have changed over the years. Even more thought provoking was seeing all the different U.S. companies that made cars that are no longer in business. Although there are some specialty auto makers (like Tesla Motors) we typically thing of the Big Three (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) today. In today’s global economy we are seeing them falter too. Another thing I saw at the museum was an electric car that was made in 1903. It was not a prototype either, it was a finished product. This is an idea that is still struggling to find acceptance, for instance Tesla Motors and the EV1 which is no longer produced by GM.

Something that hasn’t changed, though, is the abundantly filled, starlit night sky.

Technorati Tags: Acadia National Park, Bar Harbor, Tesla Motors
, cell phone

Mind Shift

2007-09-01T15:06:00.000-05:00

Once again it’s been a while since I posted. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking lately. The day after I made my last post I found out that friend from the neighborhood that I grew up in died of brain cancer. It was hard to believe that something like this could happen to one of my friends. He is the same age as me. I always admired his intelligence and he became successful as the director of a local television station. The world has lost one of its best. Recalling the memories of my childhood friend sent me into deep contemplation of my own life, what I have done, and what I will do.

Around the time that this happened I was doing some environmental scanning for what could be one of the next big significant trends. I came across the webpage for Paul Zane Pilzer. He claims that the next trillion-dollar industry will be in the health and wellness business. That seemed plausible to me. But reading deeper I found that the health and wellness industry mostly comprised of people peddling vitamins using multi-level marketing (MLM) tactics, also known as network marketing. He claims that this is going to produce a significant number of millionaires. Pilzer seems like a really intelligent guy, but I’m just not buying it. I do believe that the health and wellness industry is going to be huge. This is in large part due to the baby boomers wanting to maintain their health as they age. But I don’t get the MLM connection. Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki have a book out called, Why We Want You to be Rich. In there they also promote MLM as a way to attain riches. Frankly, I don’t want to live in a world where I am constantly being approached by MLM’ers. The thought repulses me and I don’t believe that it is a good path to being a millionaire any more than winning the lottery.

Scott, you say, where are you going with all of this? Well, these things combined had me thinking about what defines success, how money is made, and how I measure up. While I’m not a big fan of the MLM model I do believe that if you want to make money sales is the place to be. I read an interesting line in some literature on the Landslide website: “A company doesn’t exist to make things. A company exists to sell things.” I thought that was a very powerful statement. I also believe that the health and wellness industry will be as big as Pilzer says it will be. This is definitely a trend to watch. But, there is much more to it than peddling vitamins. Health (and youth) is what people are after. Really, the best thing that anyone can do is exercise and eat a healthy diet. That is what I try to do. Yes, I take some vitamins too, but they are more for enhancement than a foundation (see Joel Garreau). Unfortunately, most everyone has heard and understood the message but they still won’t do what it takes to be healthy. The even bigger trend is biotechnology and new methods of diagnosis and new surgical methods. My conclusion is that, while it is perceived that futurists like to dream big dreams, my personal emphasis will be on sales strategies. Sales is a more complex field than most imagine and it is evolving everyday. Sales is about offering solutions and solving problems. If you don’t know how to sell your solution you don’t make any money and people’s problems don’t get solved. Being a success requires being successful in sales. This is true whether you’re trying to convince a colleague in the next cubicle to "buy" your way of doing somehting or if you are trying to sell the next breakthrough in biotechnology.

Technorati Tags:
sales
, Paul Zane Pilzer
, health
, Donald Trump
, Robert Kiyosaki
, Joel Garreau
, MLM
, biotechnology

Nuclear Power Is Not An Option For Energy Independence

2007-06-13T21:34:00.000-05:00

In recent years former opponents of nuclear power in U.S. have changed their minds in the face of concerns over global warming caused by burning fossil fuels. Some thought that this would revive the nuclear power industry in America. But, the United States’ ability to produce the nuclear fuel is in question. USEC, the company in America that enriches uranium, is in serious financial trouble. This is the focus in this New York Times article. Something even more startling pointed out by the article is that the U.S. imports 90 percent of its uranium. Nuclear power now appears to not be an answer to the United States’ long term energy plan.

Technorati Tags:
nuclear+power, uranium, global+warming

The System Dynamics of the US Government

2007-06-12T21:37:00.000-05:00

Have you ever heard someone say something to the extent of, "The founding fathers would be rolling in their graves if they knew what going on today?" That kind of thinking really doesn’t make sense. The US government is no different today than it was at its founding. It is a system. The system permitted the creation of laws, constitutional amendments, or procedures that are different today from those created 231 years ago. So, if someone thinks that the government is broken they are wrong. It’s always been this way. The system of governing is still the same. Perhaps if the leadership of the United States is not performing as it should then a new system of government needs to be created. It would be foolish to believe that the perfect form of government has already been created. As times, communications technology, and belief systems change it is possible that a major change in governmental systems is needed to deal with the complexity of the modern world. I don’t know what this new system is yet and I’m not advocating revolution. I’m just suggestion that we leave our minds open to a new way.

The inspiration for these thoughts comes from a paper I recently read on system dynamics titled, Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System by Donella Meadows. It describes the least powerful and most powerful ways to create change in a system. I highly recommend reading it. If you’re short on time you can get the Wikipedia version.

Technorati Tags:
system+dynamics, founding+fathers, us+government, donella+meadows

More Evidence That US Patent Laws Need To Change

2007-06-11T21:10:00.000-05:00

Just a quick update on what some other people are saying about how US patent laws are strangling innovation. Check out this interview with Alan Cox. Take a look at his response to question 12 concerning Microsoft and intellectual property:

12) Do you share some people's fear of Microsoft's threats (concerning patents and intellectual property)?

"I don't think they are the biggest danger. As Microsoft has been finding out recently it is the patent trolls, and organisations with buried patents in interesting areas that are the biggest threat in the USA. The real answer to that problem however is to pull the USA back into line with the majority of the world which simply does not recognize patents on software but respects them as literary works subject to copyright law. Also therefore we have to make sure the continuing US attempts to spread bogus patent law into the EU are defeated."

It appears as though I’m not the only one that sees this is a problem.

Technorati Tags:
Microsoft, intellectual+property, patent

Amish Power

2007-05-30T21:07:00.000-05:00

This is the first time I've ever heard anyone refer to the Amish as "early technology adopters". But that’s what this NPR Radio segment calls them. I've been to the area of Ohio where this Amish community resides several times. I have been in the furniture stores that are lit by electric light bulbs connected to large, probably deep cycle, batteries. I didn't realize that they could be recharging them with solar panels. I admire their slower pace of life and their contemplative approach to technology. But, I still can't help to think that there is quite a bit of hypocrisy in their methods. I think it is great that they are conservative power users and that they are using clean, solar power. Have they ever thought how those solar panels are made? They would never use the technology that it takes to make them, so how is it right to use them? To me, this is just proof that you can't always expect logic and rational thought to explain why things are the way they are in the world.

Technorati Tags:
Amish, solar+power, early+adopters

Teach Me, Google

2007-05-24T21:45:00.000-05:00

Folks with an MBA might be familiar with PEST (Political, Economic, Social, Technological) analysis. The futurist crowd typically uses STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) analysis. Google shows once again that they are ahead of the crowd with PESTEL (Political, Economical, Sociocultural, Technological, Environmental, Legal) analysis. See slide 13 of this Strategic Analysis: Google presentation to see where I got this from. The addition of the legal frame makes a lot of sense given the litigious nature today’s copyright and intellectual property (IP) landscape. I’ve written before about increasing court battles over IP. It is my concern that court battles will stifle rather than stimulate innovation in America. In the past IP protection encouraged innovation because people knew that they would benefit from their hard work and that a competitor with larger resources could not take their idea and profit from it. Digitization and the Internet have changed the rules of the game. While Americans argue in court the rest of the world, not under the jurisdiction of American courts, will move right ahead inventing and making things. The United States only accounts for approximately 300 million of the 6 billion people with purchasing power on this earth. While the U.S. has been the wealthiest population in the world this too is changing. If you don’t believe me check out the numbers in Shift Happens.

Technorati Tags: Google, PESTEL, intellectual property

The Global Nature of Shutters

2007-05-23T21:16:00.000-05:00

I’ll have to keep this brief tonight. It’s getting late now that I have helped clean up the house for the Pampered Chef party that my wife is having tomorrow and helped unload a shipment of shutters that my wife received in for her home-based business, V2K Window Décor and More. The interesting thing about this evening was the packaging that the shutters came in. The Sunland Shutters were manufactured by TA CHEN International, Inc. in Davenport, Florida. They were shipped to us in Greensburg, Pennsylvania on a paperboard pallet made by JIING SHIN ENTERPRISE Co., LTD in Taiwan. How’s that for a global economy?

Technorati Tags: Cindy Anderson, shutters, packaging

Shades of Green

2007-05-21T21:27:00.000-05:00

I came across two contrasting views of what it means to be environmentally conscious. Ashley Menger is trying a personal experiment. She is attempting to not create any trash for two weeks. You can check on her progress on her blog, Trash Talk. In contrast, Seth Godin posted on his blog today that asking people to deprive themselves is not a workable solution. Seth’s advice, "let's figure out how to turn this into a battle to do more, not less." It's hard to pick sides.

I like Ashley's approach. I think we are way too wasteful. I can recall the guilt I felt recently when I went with my wife and my son to Chick-fil-a. When we were finished with a couple of chicken sandwiches, fries, and drinks I had a whole mountain of trash on my tray. All I could do was say, "More for the landfill," as I dumped it down the whole. What if there was a way to recycle it? Sometimes I think recycling is energy intensive. You make a package, transport the package, fill a package, ship the finished product, take it home, possibly rinse it out with hot water, transport it to a processing facility, then energy has to be used to break it down so it can be used again. This seems like an awful lot for a thin plastic container. It seems like it would be much better to just produce less waste.

Then there is Seth's view. Whether his way is the right thing or not for the planet he’s probably right. The majority of people aren't going to give anything up. I found some soundbites and commentary on a recent speech made by Arnold Schwarzenegger at the Radical Congruency blog. I like Arnold's approach. Perhaps what he is doing right now (using fuel cells and biofuels) isn’t the best long-term solution. But, it's the best that technology currently has to offer. I like that he pushing people to come up with new ideas to solve our environmental issues. We can’t go back, we can only go forward.

Technorati Tags: environment, Ashley Menger, Seth Godin, Chick-fil-a, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Radical Congruency, Fuel Cells, biofuel

Holographic Storage Now Available

2007-05-19T07:22:00.000-05:00

Holographic storage is something that I mentioned back in January. It will finally be commercially available for Early Adopters this fall. It will be interesting to watch this development and see if advances in optical storage will parallel the advances in magnetic storage as detailed by in the book, The Innovators Dilemma. I have watched it progress from CD-R to CD-RW to DVD-RW to HD-DVD and Blu-ray (and all the steps in between). It will be interesting to see if holographic storage will Cross the Chasm and be used by Pragmatists.

Technorati Tags: Holographic Storage, Crossing The Chasm, Innovators Dilemma, Early Adopters, Pragmatists, Technology Adoption Lifecycle

Semantic Web Dead Before Being Born

2007-05-18T20:26:00.000-05:00

I found this story in my RSS feed from webpronews.com this morning. It goes even further than my previous posting. Rather than Semantic Web just being a long way off Mor Naaman, a Semantic Web developer, says that it is not likely to happen. I won’t be that pessimistic. But I will say that the Semantic Web will not likely be what we believe it will be today. I can think back in my personal experience to 1995. This is when I read Neuromancer because Mark Pesce said that it was his inspiration for creating VRML. I jumped on it, but the rest of the world wasn’t ready. VRML never took off. But today we have Second Life. Second Life didn’t start until 2003. The graphics are much better, though, than anything I saw in VRML back in the day. I heard an interview the other day on the BBC World Service with the author of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He claimed that Google is a Black Swan. Basically, he claims that nobody could have predicted that Google would be what it is today. So then you might say, "Why should I believe anything a Futurist says?" Because good Futurists don’t claim to predict the future. We only claim that based on a set of assumptions a certain scenario is probable. Also, a good futurist doesn’t create only one scenario, we make three or four. The real future will most likely have elements from all the scenarios.

Technorati Tags: Semantic Web, Mor Naaman, Neuromancer, Mark Pesce, VRML, Second Life, Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Google, Futurist, scenarios

Will Semantic Web Be Web 3.0?

2007-05-17T20:46:00.000-05:00

I have been a user of the World Wide Web since it began, when Mosaic was the only graphical web browser. I have followed its development all along the way. I honestly can’t recall anyone predicting Web 2.0. I also don’t believe that Web 2.0 is really any different than previous web activity or even pre-web networked computer activity. What we are doing hasn’t changed, how we are doing it has. New technology has permitted new software applications, that’s all. Ajax and Mashups are making new applications easier to create. But, back to the question stated in the subject, I don’t believe that Semantic Web is next.

Access to information from a cellphone will form the next wave. Cellphones are becoming/replacing PC’s with their power and significance. Mobile Web is what’s next. If you want to make money in the short-term with a web application, make it mobile. If you have long-term vision and long-term financing create the Semantic Web.

Technorati Tags:
Semantic Web, Web 2.0, Web 3.0, Mobile Web

Keep On Blogging

2007-05-17T20:26:00.000-05:00

You might have noticed that my blogging over the past couple weeks has been a little sparse. This is because I allowed something that someone said to poison my mind. I don’t feel at liberty to talk about the exact circumstances at this point, but I’ll just say that I am over it now. Thankfully, it was nothing as severe as what happened to Kathy Sierra. My fears concerned financial harm, not physical harm. But, something occurred yesterday caused a shift in my consciousness and helped me realize the things that are really important. Writing this blog is something that I really enjoy and I am thankful for the response that I have received from readers through email and comments. I promise that I will not let this happen again.

Technorati Tags: Kathy Sierra, blogging

Happy Cinco de Mayo, Maybe

2007-05-06T13:46:00.000-05:00

Yesterday was May 5th, or to some it was Cinco de Mayo. I thought it was funny when I asked my father-in-law what he was going to do for Cinco de Mayo and he asked, "What's that?" When I told him he replied with something of a sneer. My mother-in-law and father-in-law like to go out to eat a lot. I thought they would be game for a special at a Mexican restaurant on Cinco de Mayo. But, my father-in-law was not interested. Later that day I talked to my father on the phone. When I wished my father a happy Cinco de Mayo he just sneered. In the afternoon I watched a lecture by Wade Clark Roof on TV. He was talking about Generation X’s relationship with religion. Part of his lecture focused on pointing out the differences between Gen-X and the Baby Boomers. There are definitely differences between the generations. Something as trivial as an attitude toward Cinco de Mayo made this evident to me. Honestly, I could care less about the significance of Cinco de Mayo. To me and my friends who are Gen-Xers, Cinco de Mayo is a day to act a little silly by actually pretending like you care that it is Cinco de Mayo and to say something in a foreign language that we only know a few words of. Most importantly it’s a day to eat some Mexican-style food. A friend of mine told me how to make taquitos. I made them for the first time yesterday. My wife and I had fun eating them. The phrase, "South of the Border", always makes me think of getting a little crazy and having some fun. Baby Boomers (at least the ones I know best), on the other hand, seem to have negative feelings about Mexico. This negativity seems to prevent them from even allowing themselves to enjoy a dinner at a Mexican restaurant. It makes me wonder what meme exists within their generation to create these feelings. Many Boomers are bitter over Mexican immigration. I suppose that could have something to do with it. While something different does need to be done about immigration I didn’t let it stand in the way of me having a good time.

Technorati Tags: Cinco de Mayo, Wade Clark Roof, Baby Boomers, Generation X

Multicore Programming

2007-04-11T20:56:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, a discussion I was involved with turned to the subject of multithreaded programs running on computers with multiple core processors. Basically, most programmers today do not know how to write software that takes advantage of multiple processors. This will require a new programming paradigm. Yes, methods exist for doing this already but the techniques have not reached maturity. New frameworks are just now being developed to make this easier to do. I remember back when I was a C programmer saying that the C language gave you just enough rope to hang yourself. This was especially true for the memory allocation methods. Newer environments and languages such as Java and .NET have made things better for the old problems but the advent of multicore processors and the implementation of threading have introduced new problems and a new rope for hanging yourself in code.

A year ago Intel predicted that there would be processors with tens or even hundreds of cores within the next decade. This article, published just a couple of days ago, claims they could be available within the next two or three years. The article also points out that we are not prepared to utilize this kind of computing power. As this trend in hardware continues it is difficult to conceive that a single person or even a small team will ever be able to utilize this kind of power for the types of applications we use today. This is probably because humans won’t be doing the programming for long. Application development will turn to creating Genetic Fuzzy Systems that will start programming where humans leave off. These new computers are not what I consider to be artificially intelligent or anything verging on sentient. They are simply the next step in information automation. A catalyst and contributor to this technology will be the advent of the Semantic Web. Metadata will become part of the programming code that will provide the contextual information that the Fuzzy Genetic System will use to reformulate and redistribute the original human-written code. For now I will call these Sentinel Programs. Sentinel Programs will become the killer-app that will advance the wide-spread use of multicore processors.

Technorati Tags: semantic+web, genetic+fuzzy+systems, multicore+processors, threading

Growing Replacement Organs

2007-04-02T21:12:00.000-05:00

Sir Magdi Yacoub, a professor of cardiac surgery at Imperial College London, has succeeded in growing a human heart valve from stem cells. He believes that we will be able to grow an entire heart within 10 years. If this is possible for the heart then it must also be true for all of the other organs in the body. Organ replacement, though, is no substitute for healthy living. Hopefully when we achieve full organ replacement capabilities it will not have the secondary effect of causing people to live unhealthy lifestyles believing that they can just replace the parts when they go bad. I believe this would have negative social consequences if this were to happen. Now is the time to start thinking of ways to head off negative secondary effects while the technology is still in its infancy. Click here to read more about the discovery.

Technorati Tags: heart+surgery, stem+cell