MAS O Menos

This Blog Has Moved

2008-03-18T08:57:00.000-07:00

The MAS o Menos blog has been moved to http://criticalmas.com.

The new RSS Feed is http://criticalmas.com/feed/.

Please update your links, bookmarks and RSS readers.

MAS o Menos has escaped from Blogger, which I now refer to as the Ike Turner of Blog publishing tools.

This post will self-destruct in 3 months.

Ultra ETF post

2008-03-16T08:32:00.000-07:00

If you own any leveraged ETFs, check out my latest post.

Blog Move in Progress

2008-03-15T13:23:00.001-07:00

I am still moving posts over to the new blog. Not much new writing yet. I expect the move to be complete before the end of March. The blog name will remain MAS o Menos.

So far I've moved posts from December 2005 to March 2007.

Investing in Stocks For the Long Term?

2008-03-07T16:14:00.000-08:00

In my post Ignore My Financial Advice, one of my tips was to read financial history. One aspect of financial history I'd like to address is this baby-boomer nonsense that the stock market always goes up in the long term.

I guess that depends on what you consider the long term.

Before anyone invests in the stock market, they should look at two charts. One chart shows a secular bull market. Look at the DJIA (Dow Jones) chart from 1982 - 2000.

Larger Image

It is a beautiful chart. You've probably seen it before. This is the case for buying equities. Stocks moved from being way under valued to way over valued. Everyone was making money.

The second is chart is what happened just prior to the above chart. It is the DJIA from 1964 to 1982. During this period stocks moved from being over valued to under valued. This is a secular bear market. Prices move in a choppy pattern and after many heart-wrenching years, ended up back where they started. Add inflation and lost investment opportunities and you can see the damage caused by a bear market.

Larger Image

Fast forward to the present. Are we in a secular bear market now that started in 2000? Or are we in a secular bull market that started in 2003? Or maybe all this history is just noise and everything is different this time?

If you are interested in this topic and want a textbook education, read Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles by Ed Easterling. If you just want the basics, some of Ed's best work made it into Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market by John F. Mauldin.

Time Machine

2008-03-05T08:48:00.000-08:00

I'm moving over the old CriticalMAS posts to the new WordPress blog. Yesterday I moved over December 2005. If you like blog reruns, you can follow along from the new blog.

The Comments Have Spoken

2008-03-04T09:19:00.000-08:00

On the post The End of CriticalMAS, I asked for feedback on my idea that I should rename my domain. It wasn't well received, so CriticalMAS will stay CriticalMAS.

The downside is this site will be a mess for the next 60 days. For the next two months, be sure to wear a pixel hard hat when surfing on CriticalMAS. There will be fewer posts as the transition away from the evil Blogger takes place.

Chasing a Dog up a Mountain

2008-03-03T15:39:00.000-08:00

Now that I've acclimatized to Seattle, I decided to go for my first hike of the year on Sunday. Since all the hikes look the same out here, I went for my nearest favorite: West Tiger (aka Exit 20).

I hit the trail at the same time as a lady and her 6 month old black lab. The dog would run 100 meters or so up the trail and then return to the lady. This process was repeated for the first few kilometers of the trail. I was hiking faster than the lady and soon I noticed the dog was using me as point of reference to run up and down the trail. I looked back for the lady and she was out of visual range. Not good.

I stopped hiking hoping the dog would stop his ascent up the mountain while giving the dog's owner time to catch up. The dog was too hyper and took off. I waited for the lady who was upset that her dog was not responding to her calls. Her concern was the dog would freak out once it got to the top and she wasn't there. The dog might go down the mountain on the other side.

The challenge was clear at this point. Get to the top of the mountain as fast as possible before this puppy freaks out. I was faster than the lady, who had a huge backpack, so I volunteered to help. I took off at a fast pace up this steep climb. Along the way I got status reports from climbers who saw the black dog. Each hiker stated the dog was just a few minutes up the mountain.

I think I arrived at the top of the mountain a minute behind the dog. The dog was begging food from everyone at the summit. She even grabbed a sandwich from one hiker. My task was to keep the dog occupied and not let it freak out and head down the backside of the mountain while the owner who was five minutes from the summit arrived. My new task was obvious, I had to get this dog from eating the lunches of several hikers.

As the dog misbehaved, I called it and pulled it away from other hikers all while explaining to people that it wasn't my dog. Eventually the owner arrived and I was free to go.

An interesting first hike of the year.

March 2008 INeedCoffee

2008-03-01T15:27:00.000-08:00

This month's INeedCoffee was one my favorite editions. Alex's story on hotel coffee makers being used for making crystal meth was outstanding. And the photos in snake article were amazing.

** Human Snake Conflict Inside Coffee Forests
by Dr. Anand Titus and Geeta N. Pereira
ineedcoffee.com/08/snake-conflict/
Lurking in the forest one can find a bizarre collection of snakes. The presence of different snake species speaks volumes about the fertility status of the coffee forests. AMAZING PHOTOS!

** Coffee Meth Myth?
by Alex Scofield
ineedcoffee.com/08/coffee-meth/

Hotel coffee-makers being used to make crystal meth -- urban myth, or cause for concern?

** Hottop KN-8828P Coffee Bean Roaster First Look
by Chris Arnold
ineedcoffee.com/08/hottop-roaster/

Maybe you currently have a KN-8828P Hottop roaster, and would like to get more out of it. Maybe you are thinking of upgrading from one of your simpler models like the KN-8828, KN-8828D, or KN-8828B to the more advanced KN-8828P digital model.

** Cold Weather Coffee Roasting
by Michael Allen Smith
ineedcoffee.com/08/cold-roasting/

Roasting coffee can be done indoors or outdoors. With my current pad, roasting on the outdoor patio is the only option. My smoke detector is hyper sensitive and requires an acrobat to disable. As the months went by and the temperature dropped, my roast times were getting longer and longer.

** Colombian Coffee
by Chris Arnold
ineedcoffee.com/08/colombian-coffee/

Nothing represents coffee in the American psyche more than Juan Valdez and his mountain grown Colombian coffee. In 1959 we were introduced to the fictional character, complete with sombrero and poncho for effect, alongside his trusty donkey, or burro.

** Coffee Mugs of Coffee Fanatics
by Michael Allen Smith
ineedcoffee.com/08/coffee-mugs/

A photo collection of the favorite coffee mugs of several INeedCoffee contributors.

** Finding the Best of the Best in Coffee
by Michelle Faber
ineedcoffee.com/08/master-tasters/

There are, nowadays, a limited number of coffee roasters that independently test their coffee beans for taste observations and aromas. These beans are graded and assessed just like fine wine.

The End of CriticalMAS?

2008-03-01T08:02:00.000-08:00

Decision time. This is the month that I begin the move off Blogger and over to WordPress. This means eight years of links and images will need to corrected or redirected. This is no minor project.

Why go through the hassle? Two reasons.

Reason one is I'm researching the possibility of transitioning INeedCoffee to an open multi-author publisher. I'd rather practice and learn over here on CriticalMAS with 100 daily page views instead of on INeedCoffee with 4,000 daily page views. And there is no guarantee that WordPress will be right for INeedCoffee. I'd rather discover that on this site.

Reason two is I plan to keep blogging and I hate Blogger.

My question to you is now that I'm moving, should I change my domain from CriticalMAS.com over to MichaelAllenSmith.com? My original blog Chicken Soup for the Rectum (2000-2004) was critical, whereas MAS o Menos (2005-present) isn't. As Van Halen once sang: Big Bad Billy is Sweet William Now.

If I'm going to change domains, now would be the ideal time.

You thoughts? Please post a comment. I accept anonymous comments and I don't require typing some illegible string of characters before submitting.

Coffee Tour At Seattle's Caffe Vita

2008-02-29T18:26:00.000-08:00

The Seattle Coffee Meetup got a tour of Caffe Vita last night. They roast 2,000 to 4,000 pounds of coffee daily. Many coffee shops and restaurants use their coffee in the Seattle area. Unlike Victrola, they pre-blend their espresso prior to roasting.

Coffee Tour Photos

RainMan RIP

2008-02-28T12:08:00.000-08:00

Just got word that our old pet cat RainMan died. I think he was either 15 or 16 years old. After a few days of being lethargic, he passed away last night. Rainman was the best pet I've ever had. He actually came when you called him and could even hand-shake. In January 2007, he went back to Jamul because he was an outdoor cat at heart. Then last fall, Rainman survived the San Diego fires living off the land until the mandatory evacuation was lifted.

The Origins of the Crash

2008-02-27T10:37:00.000-08:00

One of my favorite genres of reading is financial history and nobody does a better job than Roger Lowenstein.

Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing by Roger Lowenstein takes you through the economic history leading up and covering the stock market crash of 2000-2002. This book is outstanding and I enjoyed it even more than his book When Genius Failed.

It always a good exercise to step back from the day to day chaos of the markets and see the bigger picture. Knowing history is the first step to making sense of the present. I highly recommend this book and look forward to reading Roger's new book when it gets released in May. That book is titled While America Aged: How Pension Debts Ruined General Motors, Stopped the NYC Subways, Bankrupted San Diego, and Loom as the Next Financial Crisis.

Bandy Canyon Fire - September 2004

2008-02-25T10:10:00.001-08:00

Between the big fires of 2003 and 2007, there was a small fire in the Rancho San Pasqual valley that was contained quickly.

Bandy Canyon Fire

Labor Day 2003 at Muscle Beach

2008-02-25T09:41:00.000-08:00

Amateur bodybuilding competition held at Venice's Muscle Beach on Labor Day 2003.

Muscle beach 2003

Arnold Expo 2004

2008-02-25T09:31:00.000-08:00

Photos from my 2004 trip to the Arnold Expo.

Arnold Expo

Colorado 2004

2008-02-25T09:21:00.000-08:00

I visited Denver and Boulder Colorado from May 29-June 1, 2004.

Colorado 2004

Urban Hike Seattle

2008-02-18T18:22:00.000-08:00

Today was Presidents Day, which meant that I was off work and the stock market was closed. The weather forecast for Seattle was 57 degrees and sunny. Perfect conditions for an urban hike. I've urban hiked Manhattan, San Francisco, Auckland, and Buenos Aires. I decided to urban hike Seattle armed with my camera and GPS.

Starting south of Fremont at 8 AM I crossed the Fremont Bridge.

A morning visit to the Troll.

Coffee stop at Caffe Vita.

Then it was off to Wallingford.

More espresso at Zoka.

Then it was off to the University district and still more espresso at Trabant.

I hiked through the University of Washington.

From there I took the Montlake Bridge and made my way to Capitol Hill.

After a stop for tea, I made it to Stumptown for more espresso.

Before heading to Pike Market, I made one final espresso stop at Victrola.

At this point I returned to my starting point, which wasn't as easy as I thought. Going from downtown through Queen Anne on the way to Fremont has some big hills and lots of dead end roads.

A rough estimate of the hike was 14.55 miles. I'm tired and sunburned.

Seattle Urban Hike Photos

Accidental Mind

2008-02-18T06:10:00.000-08:00

Not sure how this book ended up on my reading list, but I'm glad it did.

The Accidental Mind: How Brain Evolution Has Given Us Love, Memory, Dreams, and God is by David J. Linden. It's a book about the brain. At points it is a very tough read with lots of science, however most of the book can be appreciated without a graduate degree in the biological sciences.

The Accidental Mind is about the brain's relationships with learning, evolution, memory, love, dreaming and religion. If you can make it past the first 75 pages or so, you'll feel smarter for your effort.

Death to Blogger

2008-02-17T07:51:00.000-08:00

I've been with Blogger since April 2000 and I've finally had enough. It is clear that Google has no intention of repairing the code that runs the FTP accounts. It is slow and buggy. They have no intention of making their code XHTML compliant or conforming to MicroFormat standards. All they care about are the BlogSpot accounts. The beatings must end. It's time for this battered Blogger to move on.

I've started the process of moving to WordPress. Moving to WordPress means my links will break. I'll do my best to make the transition smooth. It's a hit I'm now willing to take on CriticalMAS. DigitalColony which gets 8 times the traffic will be a far tougher move.

This ATM machine works better than Blogger.

Just What I Said

2008-02-16T07:32:00.000-08:00

Despite having one of the least attractive book covers I've ever seen, Just What I Said is an outstanding collection of economic columns from one of the best, Caroline Baum.

Just What I Said: Bloomberg Economics Columnist Takes on Bonds, Banks, Budgets, and Bubbles by Caroline Baum is nice collection of economic articles from the period of 1998 through 1994 that stands the test of time. If you find economic history, the Federal Reserve, debt markets and interest rates interesting, give it a read. Otherwise move along.

Rock Climbing 101

2008-02-12T07:10:00.000-08:00

Last summer I climbed a rock wall at the Amazon Summer Picnic. It was challenging enough to go to REI Pinnacle and enroll in the two hour rock climbing class. It was a technical class that covered a lot of the safety aspects to the sport. There is a 2nd class called Climbing 201: Improving Climbing Technique which I intend to sign up for later this month.

Photo from Amazon Picnic. REI Pinnacle wall is much taller (65 feet).

Coffee and Tea Weekend

2008-02-11T06:58:00.000-08:00

Another weekend in Seattle means another beverage adventure. Saturday was Motore Coffee and Sunday was Teahouse Kuan Yin. Both are recommended.

Ignore My Financial Advice

2008-02-09T09:39:00.000-08:00

A few people in the last month have asked me for financial advice. Giving financial advice is a delicate and risky endeavor. It's not like fitness or nutritional advice (which I no longer give).

If I tell an overweight person to lift weights and stop drinking alcohol, the worst thing that can happen is the person doesn't lose weight and stays home sore on a Saturday night. If you give someone well-meaning but ultimately bad financial advice, they can lose a lot of money. Money that can take years to recover.

With that said ignore my financial advice.

1- Everyone is right until they are wrong.

Bill Miller from Legg Mason beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years. Then he failed to beat it the last two years. Humans are horrific when it comes to predicting, so we seek out gurus to lead the way. Nobody gets it right all the time.

2- Everyone has a bias.

CNBC makes money from advertising. Those advertisers want you to invest. Gurus make money from newsletters and books. Financial planners make money from commissions. My bias is ego. I want to be right and I want people to remember that I was right. Always be aware of bias.

3- Read, Read, Read.

Study financial history, economics and investor psychology. Standing further back from the day to day market swings often provides better perspective.

4- Be Aware of Confirmation Bias.

People will seek out news and information that confirms what they believe. This is true with all forms of information, be it financial, political or religious. Seeking out information that challenges your perspective is a healthy habit to develop.

5- Don't Invest in your own sector.

If you work in Health Care, don't invest in Health Care. Learn a sector that is unrelated to your income. During the dot-com bust many tech workers lost their job and their investments at the same time. Today we are seeing real estate agents that are not only unable to sell homes for their client, they are unable to sell the homes they intended to flip. Diversify your investment knowledge away from your sector. And never invest in your own company.

6- Only Bank with the Best.

Unless you've avoided the news for the past few months, then you are aware there are some banking shenanigans going on. Some banks have lots of toxic loans on their books. Banks can and will fail. Even though accounts are FDIC insured up to $100,000, I'd prefer not to go through the hassle. I saw how our government handled the Katrina disaster, so you'll understand why I'd prefer to keep my money in better banks. Keeping a thousand in cash might not be a bad idea should the ATM card for your failed bank stop working.

BankRate.com provides Safe and Sound ratings for all banks. Another clue that your bank may be in trouble is the offering of higher than normal rates on CDs or deals with sovereign wealth funds. Good banks don't need lifeline loans.

Everything I said is probably wrong, so please ignore my financial advice.

The Sweet Taste of Referral Income

2008-02-07T16:44:00.000-08:00

About a week ago I got my renewal notice from SmugMug, which hosts my photo galleries. Instead of seeing a bill, I got a notice that next year would be free due to all the referrals I sent their way. At first I couldn't recall sending them any referrals, then I remembered an article I wrote on Digital Colony called Displaying a SmugMug Gallery with ASP.NET. At the end of the article I wrote down my referral code and then promptly forgot about it.

When I logged into my account I learned that not only is this year free, but I have enough referrals to pay for next year also. There was $60 I hadn't planned on.

Amazon then sent me a nice gift certificate for $15. Turns out a few of my INeedCoffee readers bought a cordless water kettle as advised in my article Troubleshooting French Press Coffee. Thank you very much.

Both SmugMug and Amazon are top-notch companies. It's kind of cool for them to slip me a tip. By the way, let me mention that my SmugMug referral code is: IzodUqeQndZYc. It will save you $5 on any new account and help me pay for my 2010 image hosting. And if you need anything from Amazon, feel free to use my custom Amazon search screen. Sweet!

Dean Karnazes - The King of Pain

2008-02-03T10:36:00.000-08:00

Back in 1989 and 1992, I got a taste of what it was like to compete in an endurance event. I ran two marathons, both under four hours. After reading Dean Karnazes book, my accomplishments seem as challenging as a session of senior citizen bingo.

Ultramarathon Man: Confessions of an All-Night Runner by Dean Karnazes amazed me. I woke up at 5:00 AM this morning and could not stop reading this book. How can a story about running be interesting? Dean Karnazes took me back to my running days. That dialog that goes through your head at mile 20 telling you to stop running and the other voice telling you to continue. He then takes you where few go: 50 miles, 100 miles and 199 miles.

This book is stellar. Everyone that has every competed or thought about competing in an endurance event will be inspired by Ultra Marathon Man. From page 220:

People think I'm crazy to put myself through such torture, though I would argue otherwise. Somewhere along the line we seem to have confused comfort with happiness. I've now come to believe that quite the opposite is true.

If you don't read the book, at least read his Wikipedia page. Be sure to have some Gatorade and Advil handy. You'll get tired just reading his accomplishments.