Andrea's Musings

The Viral Valley

2009-07-10T22:18:00.009-04:00

As a young girl, there were few places I would have preferred to call home than Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania. Nestled against the farthest reaches of Northeast Philadelphia, my home, this hamlet of roughly 12,000, in Lower Moreland Township, is picturesque with rolling hills, winding roads, lush landscapes, sprawling homes, excellent public schools and very comfortable incomes.

We lived so close to Huntingdon Valley, it only entailed a short walk across the county line to get there, and I crossed over early and often. Be it Friday night block parties, sorority pledging, Lorimer Park, excellent Deli's, the Bowling Alley, or a favorite Disco, which served as a second home on Thursday nights, I spent considerable time in Huntingdon Valley and, 25 years later, still remember it with mostly fond memories.

When the NBC affiliate in Philadelphia first reported on the Valley Swim Club incident earlier this week, I tagged along, as I knew the story would go viral in a matter of milliseconds. Though I've never been to this particular swim club, I have been to many of the swim and country clubs in the general vicinity, and I'm not at all surprised at what occurred at Valley. And the truth is, since I left the city, virtually nothing has changed at these clubs. In a very perverse way, I'm almost glad that what I've known forever about the suburban hamlets bordering Philadelphia has finally come to light. It's a discussion we didn't dare have yet one which is long overdue.

So much of what is being posted on the Net by people claiming this couldn't have happened in "Philly" is ill-informed. After all, Philadelphia is a majority african american city today. But Huntingdon Valley is not Philly. It's a very affluent place that many white Philadelphians fled to because of the darkening "complexion" of the City of Brotherly Love. To be fair, there was also a desire and the means for these former city dwellers to reside in larger homes with even bigger lots. Another reason often cited to move out yonder was city taxes, but what residents of these well-heeled suburban enclaves pay in property taxes dwarfs the city tax liability, not to mention the hefty gasoline tab for commuting an hour or more, each way, to work in Center City.

Huntingdon Valley's demographics are 97% white. Any diversity the Valley Swim Club claims among its members is either token Asian or Eastern Indian professionals. Why Russians were mentioned by the club President to falsely demonstrate a diverse membership is beyond me, because last I looked, they, like all other Eastern Europeans, are Caucasian. It must be the pesky accents of newer arrivals. Jews were mentioned too! Why? Huntingdon Valley would be a shell of itself without them. The business my favorite Deli racks up on Shivah platters alone is mind boggling. Great stuff too and I'm already craving the Lox and Smoked Salmon just thinking about it.

For all the aforementioned positives about Huntingdon Valley, it's not what I think of today as the real world. Other than religious beliefs, there is a remarkable sameness among every family and that's precisely how they want it. They may speak of diversity and tell their children all the right things about those who are different, but there is little or no association with people who are not exactly like themselves, be it by race or socioeconomics.

These are people who gave Barack Obama the majority of their votes but have no black or hispanic friends, would never venture to at least half of Philadelphia, and don't expect to see people from those city neighborhoods showing up on their leafy turf. It's not overt racism, but simmering under the surface, and it came to a head when 65 children of color suddenly appeared at one of their pools.

Most public swimming pools in Philadelphia are closed this year because of budget cuts due to the economic crisis gripping Pennsylvania and the nation. Parents of the children attending the Frankford Day Camp paid the $35.00 fee to Valley Swim Club so their children could swim 1 hour a week, and enjoy an integral part of the summer camp experience. Valley was obviously looking to boost their numbers otherwise they would not have a website advertising memberships, where you could sign up and pay, online, for several plans. Funds totaling almost $2000 were exchanged and all seemed fine and dandy until the childen of color showed up to use what they paid for.

The people of Huntingdon Valley and all similar white "bubble" communities dotting the urban landscapes up and down the coasts need to move beyond lip service about diversity and open their hearts and minds with meaningful actions and real relationships, not wall themselves off and pretend another world doesn't exist, or worse, utter insensitive remarks, instruct their children to exit a pool, then close it down because of the embarrassment they caused themselves, not to mention innocent children, who just wanted to enjoy an activity that's taken for granted by their own kids.

More than a year ago, as a candidate for President, Barack Obama gave a speech on race in Philadelphia. Perhaps the reason why he chose my hometown is being revealed to us now. As far we've come, there's work to be done.

Dead but never gone

2009-06-25T21:39:00.005-04:00

Having been born just weeks after Michael Jackson, I'm finding it almost impossible to remember a time when this amazingly gifted singer, songwriter, performer and icon didn't have a place in my consciousness. No matter where I was at any stage of my life ... child, teenager, adult, wife, Mother ... Michael Jackson, as he sung in one of his most beautiful songs, was always there.

And, shockingly, today Michael departed to another place, but he leaves behind an extraordinary legacy of music and humanity for generations to come.

The King of Pop, Michael Jackson will live on forever.

RIP

Republicans Gone Wild

2009-06-24T14:51:00.004-04:00

Oh where, oh where did South Carolina's Governor go? After disappearing for a week, with his staff running interference about some impromptu hiking trip, alone, through Appalachia over Father's Day, Governor Mark Sanford held a new conference today and confessed to his wife, four kids and the good people of his state that he's been carrying on an affair with an Argentinian woman. Wonder if he'll fast track her for legalized status in the US after staunchly opposing the US Immigration Reform our previous President tried, in vain, to pass.

Barely a week ago, we learned the Republican Senator from Nevada, John Ensign, an exemplary member of Promise Keepers, had also carried on with another woman a year ago, and confessed now, not because of a marital fidelity pledge to which Promise Keepers subscribe, but because his former mistress's spouse went to FOX News to tell how Ensign has destroyed his family.

Seems like a great video line for Joe Francis, who's run the gamut of spring break college co-eds.

They had it all, and Now ... Nothing!!

2009-05-05T21:57:00.004-04:00

With excerpts of Elizabeth Edward's new book, Resiliance, trickling out, it appears we will now bear witness to a wife's public emasculation of her cheating husband. After the sorry saga of the Edwards' duplicitous deception left our consciousness, here comes the sequel with more lurid details about two people who are shells of their former selves and a relationship that makes a mockery of marriage.

The loss of their beloved son Wade notwithstanding, John and Elizabeth Edwards had it all and, by their own selfish choices, ripped it to shreds. They were complicit in their efforts to deceive a nation and, though I pray for Elizabeth's health, I can't forgive her for asking voters to believe in a man who continues, to this day, to lie to her and all of us.

Why'd He Do It?

2009-04-28T12:55:00.002-04:00

Okay, I'll admit to some serious self-congratulating today upon learning that Arlen Specter, the longtime Republican Senator from Pennsylvania was switching parties, which will finally provide Democrats in the Senate with their filibuster proof 60 vote majority to pass legislation and render Republicans on the Hill truly useless. After all, my last blog post on March 25th outlined precisely why I believed Specter would switch. To save himself!

But why did Arlen Specter make the move now? Three words ... HEALTH CARE REFORM!
Perhaps the current Swine Flu outbreak was the impetus. Specter has been a huge advocate for the Centers of Disease Control and the NIH, and generally votes in support of anything expanding health care access and affordability. In that regard, he almost stands alone in the Republican Party of today.

In the current budget, which the House just approved, the Democrats insured they would have wiggle room to prevent a Republican filibuster by leaving the option open for a procedural maneuver known as budget reconciliation if the Republicans again choose to thwart a major health care initiative such as universal coverage, which has the support of the vast majority of Americans.

Unfortunately, there are some weak kneed "moderate" Democrats in "red" states who've been warning that if the Senate Democratic leadership resorts to a budget reconciliation maneuver because they come up short of the required 60 votes to cut off debate and move to a vote, they'll be less inclined to support the legislation.

With Specter's vote and the inevitable seating of Al Franken in Minnesota, the discussion is almost mute. The Democrats won't need a single republican vote to pass health care reform!

Hallelujah! There is light at the end of the tunnel!

And to Senator Specter ... this may end up being your greatest legacy to date!

Specter Will Jump Republican Ship to Save Himself

2009-03-25T14:51:00.007-04:00

A new Quinnipiac Poll out today has Club for Growth President Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter in a Pennsylvania Republican Primary match-up by 14 points with a ridiculous 28% of Republican primary voters undecided. I say ridiculous because everyone in the state, party notwithstanding, knows Arlen Specter and, honestly, knows right now whether they will support him in a primary vote or not, regardless of what these voters are telling pollsters.

What these early numbers tell us is Arlen Specter is in a heap of trouble with Pennsylvania's Republican voters, who never much liked him from the get-go, and he'll lose a 1 on 1 primary battle with Toomey. An even more right-wing nutcase, Peg Lusik, is also planning to jump into this primary on the Republican ticket which would be Specter's only shot at pulling out a primary victory, with Lusik and Toomey splitting the "Alabama" votes between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Such a scenario is hardly guaranteed and Specter could go down regardless because of his overall weak support among the Republicans left in the Keystone state.

Personally, I'd rather see Arlen Specter retire. If he runs as a Republican, he will lose the primary and the Democrats will claim this Senate seat in 2010. Politically, he could do now, a year in advance, what he should have done 8 years ago and bolt the Republican party, caucus with the Democrats, and sail to reelection in 2010.

If Arlen Specter flips now, the Democrats will FINALLY have their filibuster proof 60 votes in the Senate, once Al Franken is seated from Minnesota, which would guarantee massive support for his reelection from National Democrats. Further, the AFL-CIO has already told Specter, a longtime ally, that they will back him 100% if he switches parties. I suspect Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy may even allow Specter to co-chair this all important committee, an historic event by any measure.

Specter's choice is clear ... sink with the Republicans or swim with the Democrats. My money says he'll grab the life preserver.

Wanna lose business? Outsource Sales

2009-03-16T17:03:00.004-04:00

Since the start of the new millenium, US companies have accelerated the pace by which they've outsourced customer support, tech help and AP departments, to the exasperation of nearly everyone here who has dealt with these remote and virtual call centers. Adding insult to injury, the latest corporate brainstorm appears to be offshore sales solicitations. I won't name the companies but I've received several such calls this new year, and all with the same result. I'm not buying and I'm not even listening!

With the economy reeling, I can appreciate just about anything a company deems necessary to remain viable and profitable but sales in such a competitive environment requires experienced, competent sales persons who possess requisite communications skills. Cold calling for new business requires at least a rudimentary background about a company, its products and the market sector. To my amazement, I'm now fielding sales calls from novices in foreign call centers, using substandard VOIP communications, for products or services which don't apply, make no sense, are of no added value and won't increase sales or productivity. Above all else, these "sales persons" are incapable of putting together a coherent sentence.

If I can't understand you, why would I give you my business? And if a company thinks so little of my business potential, that it would hand off the possibility of gaining my business to someone who knows nothing about it, doesn't ask the right questions, and can't give understandable answers, isn't the company wasting its time and money?

Certainly, the answer is yes, which is why only a few seconds are needed to promptly hang up on these callers and the companies who outsourced their most important asset.

Obama Lifts Embryonic Stem Cell Research Ban

2009-03-09T14:14:00.002-04:00

Arguably, what Barack Obama did today, in reversing George W. Bush's previously severe restrictions on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, may ultimately be one of the most significant chapters in this President's legacy.

Be it Parkinsons, Diabetes, MS, Spinal Cord Injury, Alzheimers ... federal researchers will now have the necessary means to push forward in developing cures for millions of afflicted, here, and around the world.

The promise is tremendous. The results could be mind-boggling.

And science lives again!

Health Reform NOW!

2009-03-07T22:02:00.006-05:00

With so many major issues facing our new President, and his adminstration's efforts to tackle multiple problems at once, I would posit that the exhorbitant and spiraling costs of health insurance, along with lack of access to affordable health care, is at the root of our current depression and is the most urgent domestic matter on the table.

As one of 17 million self-employed persons in the United States, who must buy individual health insurance in the open market, this cost, or rather, burden, is crippling entrepreneurs at a rapidly accelerating pace. From 2001 to 2008, monthly premiums have more than doubled, and now exceed the average monthly mortgage payment. Personally, it's the largest bill I pay each month. Even better, this is for HMO coverage in Florida, which is useless anywhere else in the country barring emergency. Better still, if I develop a condition or disease, I won't ever be able to switch to another carrier, or lower the premium, as coverage for pre-existing conditions will be denied.

I've often wondered what the 170 million people in this country, with health care provided by their employers, would do if they woke up tomorrow morning in my shoes. Or the 75 million Seniors, Disabled and poverty stricken, who are covered under either Medicare or Medicaid. It should infuriate you that the self-employed, who work and play by the same rules as everyone else, pay 10, 20 and 30 times what you pay for generally inferior coverage.

Until our current economic collapse, the only people who had a real understanding of the plight of the insured, self-employed were the 46 million citizens in this country who are completely uninsured, and another 25 million who are grossly underinsured, and will incur financial ruin if any non-routine health issue arises.

It would seem that with so many millions of people lacking insurance, not having enough or being gouged to death, someone would have declared a crisis a long time ago. In fairness, many politicians have been trying for years to overhaul the mess but they've been beaten back repeatedly by insurers, unions, doctors, pharmaceuticals, chambers of commerce throughout the country and much of the GOP.

Now that our economy is losing more than 1/2 million jobs a month for the past 5 months, the matter of health care coverage/insurance affordability has sprung to the forefront. Whether we're talking about the astronomical job losses in manufacturing and, particularly, the automotive industry, coupled with as many or more job losses across the financial sector, the people being laid off now, by and large, had gold-plated, "cadillac" health insurance coverage and paid virtually nothing for it. They are now facing my grim reality of either paying out $1000 or more a month for substandard, limited choice, or going without.

The Economic Stimulus Plan which was just signed by President Obama will allow laid off workers to buy into COBRA (available to the unemployed who previously had group coverage), with the government picking up 65% of the cost for 9 of the 18 months for which Cobra applies. This is an improvement but hardly a solution. Even if you're drawing the maximum unemployment check, $300/month for family coverage is unaffordable if one doesn't have substantial savings. And there is a caveat which applies. If you've lost your job because your employer went bankrupt, no longer exists, or dropped their group coverage, you are not eligible for COBRA. The list of companies big and small which have declared bankruptcy, closed or dropped coverage in the last year is so long, I won't run the list but, suffice it to say, their former employees are not eligible for COBRA.

The lack of access and affordability to basic health care in this country is a pox and national disgrace. It's crippling individuals, families and businesses and doing nothing can no longer be tolerated. Every player in this debacle should be shackled to a table and chair and instructed that they are not leaving until a solution is had. Anyone, government official or otherwise, who refuses to join in the solution should immediately lose goverment or company provided coverage. That ought to guarantee no bailouts.

Everyone in the process, as well as all of us, will have to give something. A short list includes expanding Community Health Centers around the country and allowing physician assitants and nurse practioners to provide routine care. Administrative costs must be reigned in. Doctors must move to electronic records. Hospitals must get their costs under control. Waste and abuse must be iradicated. Medical suppliers must be regulated and monitored. Drug re-importation must be permitted. Gold plated and fee for service plans must be taxed as income. Obese individuals must pay more as, outside of the elderly, they are the largest consumers of healthcare. Childhood immunizations must be free. Above all else, those with pre-existing conditions must be able to obtain coverage with no riders.

To anyone who says we cannot afford to fix the system and provide coverage for all, I say the United States of America cannot afford to say no, and will become a third world nation, if we continue on this ruinous path.

The FAFSA is not Rocket Science

2009-02-21T19:38:00.005-05:00

Today's New York Times has an interesting article on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (otherwise known as FAFSA) and the fits being experienced by parents all over the country trying to navigate the application which is 6 pages long and contains about 100 questions. Our new Education Secretary, Arne Duncan, is even quoted as saying "you basically have to have a Ph.D. to figure that thing out". To Secretary Duncan and petrified parents everywhere, I'm living proof that no such advanced degree is required.

On my very first try, 7 years ago, I completed the FAFSA in about an hour. Once, you've completed the form, which is permanently saved at the FAFSA website, you use a user name, password and pin to reenter, once a year, to update for the following year, and make any other required changes. That process takes about 15-20 minutes.

This is not to imply that eligility for FAFSA is always equitable, which I believe is the reason why alot of parents today are experiencing fits. With the down economy and restricted credit and lending markets, thousands, if not millions more parents are looking for ways to lower the cost of college. And every high school counselor is advising parents across the board to apply, even if there is no possibility that they will qualify for federal financial aid.

Consequently, as the Times notes, "many affluent families now use high-priced financial advisers to maximize their eligibility for financial aid". To the tune of $1500.00 for a presentation. Earth to affluent parents ... if you can afford to pay $1500.00 for a presentation, YOU DON'T QUALIFY FOR FAFSA!!!

If your AGI is above $50K, you're sending 1 kid to college, and you have money in savings and/or money market accounts (liquid assets), don't bother filling out FAFSA. If you're sending 2 kids to college, your AGI exceeds $75K, and you have liquid assets, again, don't bother filling out FAFSA. You won't qualify.

Conversely, if you own a million dollar home, hold 2 leased cars, but were collecting unemployment last year, you'll probably get a FAFSA award. Perhaps that's where a relative few people are spending inordinate amounts of time explaining their situations on the application. No doubt, this isn't the norm.

Is FAFSA fair under all circumstances? No and I'll leave the inequities to another time and post. For those who truly need assistance, there's not much to explain. Hard and cruel numbers speak for themselves, and no manner of glossy presentations, at whatever the price, will overrule the reality. FAFSA is straightforward and should take no more than an hour or two to complete. If you're child qualifies for the maximum grant, I can't think of a more cost effective way to spend the time.

How Many Madoffs Are Out There?

2009-02-18T21:25:00.005-05:00

Barely two months have passed since mega financier Bernard Madoff became a household name, having ripped off, mostly, seriously rich investors to the tune of $50 billion dollars, and we now have suspect #2, billionaire R. Allen Stanford, of Stanford Financial Group, being sued by the SEC for an $8 billion dollar fraud perpetrated on his well heeled investors, not to mention allegations of money laundering and bribery. Unlike Madoff, electronically bound to the drudgery of his sumptuous Upper East Side penthouse, while awaiting trial, Mr. Stanford is nowhere to be found. And unlike Madoff, Stanford was a very busy political contributor, having lavished vast sums of money on both political parties as well as various lobbyists over the years.

The commonality between the two men was the promise of impossibly handsome returns on investments. The rich and powerful flocked to these hucksters' high-falutin Ponzi schemes with their Bush tax cuts, for personal enrichment, rather than the job creation promised to the country by a political party devoid of any sense of morality, equity or fairness.

With the entire world financial system on the brink, the Madoffs, near and far, are being exposed. Add to these singular con artists, the Swiss bank, UBS, which has existed for years as the favored parking garage for the greediest to dump fabulous amounts of wealth in lieu of taxation. Charged with defrauding the IRS, UBS, has agreed to cough up almost $1 Billion dollars to the US Treasury, and name names, as early as today. Wonder how many UBS account holders were fleeced by Madoff/Stanford? I suspect we'll see considerable overlap. And in the months ahead, enough Madoffs will likely surface to warrant their own special wing in one of our fantastic minimum security prisons.

And, finally, a few new jobs will be created to watch over the hucksters who, in truth, spent years doing everything humanly possible to prevent that from ever happening.

No more Nadya Sulemans

2009-02-12T09:52:00.004-05:00

In these cataclysmic economic times, it's unconscionable that a woman who is not married, jobless, and has no means of financial support other than the government, irresponsibly produces 14 children. That the state of California will be on the hook for millions of dollars to support Suleman and her kids for 2 decades is grotesque and the laws need to be changed now so that no other woman is in a position to similarly game the system.

There is no insurer, private or public, which pays for Invitro Fertilization treatments. The United States Congress needs to pass a law restricting SSI/Disability payouts from ever being used for the purpose of IVF. Suleman says she paid for the IVF treatments with money she "saved up". Whatever she managed to stash away prior to claiming disability never would have been enough to cover $100,000 worth of IVF treatments had it not been for the $168,000 payout she received from SSI.

Doctors who specialize in IVF must come under stricter, mandatory guidelines in terms of how many embryoes can be implanted at once, based on age, health risk and familial support in the event of multiple births. Since IVF treatments are expensive and not covered by insurance, perhaps it's been assumed in the past that those who seek out this treatment have all the means to support the number of offspring produced. Suleman makes a mockery of any such assumption.

This can be addressed by requiring marital and financial disclosures which must be verified. The goal here is not to prevent women who have the means from undergoing IVF, but to deny treatment to women already feeding from the public coffers, or who are otherwise ill-equipped. After all, any woman who is receiving public assistance is in no financial position to churn out more children, particularly when we know the offspring will instantly be covered from birth by Medicaid. Unfortunately, we can't stop such pregnancies that occur via natural means, but we sure can prevent Doctors from being willing accomplices through extraordinary steps.

Finally, we have got to muster the will to rid the fraud and abuse of SSI/Disability. Though the excesses seem a pittance compared to rampant Corporate fraud and abuse, it doesn't make it right, and certainly not in these trying financial times. Prior to the birth of the Octuplets, 3 of Suleman's 6 children were classified as disabled, resulting in $793/month checks per child or almost $3000/month. One of the children is allegedly autistic. If so, no argument here, the child has a legitimate lifelong disability. My gripe is with the disability classification of the other 2 children. One is labeled with ADHD and the other with a mild speech impetiment. Both conditions are treatable with coverage through Medicaid. Why are either labeled as "disabled," and why are they receiving $800/month from SSI?

Since the state of California appears to be wholly responsibly for the financial support of the Octuplets, I'd like to see these babies adopted out to families who have the means, ability and desire to love and raise children. I'm also confident this won't happen, however tough decisions do need to be made to ensure there are no more Nadya Sulemans in our future.

The insanity of 6, the criminality of 14

2009-02-07T21:11:00.002-05:00

Since learning of only the second, successful birth of Octuplets in our country's history, my initial surprise and wonderment has given way to sheer anger at a woman who is clearly not fit or equipped to be a mother, a doctor who possesses no ethics and a fertility industry that needs something more than the guidelines which were flagrantly ignored.

There is so much to be angry about with this situation, it's hard to know precisely where to begin. At some point in her twenties, Nadya Suleman arranged with a male to donate sperm so she could one day become a mother. It appears that two previous ectopic pregnancies led to this decision and I can understand the desire to choose a different course in order to fulfill Nadya's desire to give birth and become a mother.

Unfortunately, that's where and when any rational thought was tossed out the window. After applying for disability as a result of a riot at her workplace, which supposedly left Nadya with severe backpain and unable to work, she took the opportunity, not to seek physical therapy, but to impregnate herself via sperm donor gift. With an ample donor supply still available, she chose implantation 4 more times, with one of the ensuing pregnancies resulting in twins, for a total of 6 offspring.

Disability health coverage does not pay for IVF treatments, which run at least $10K a pop, so it's a fair assumption that these treatments were paid for by the $168K disability payout the unemployed Nadya received over a 6 year period when all of these children were born. Makes you wonder how many other woman are out there using Disability settlements to undergo IVF. Prior to Nadya, I would have guessed none because of the exhorbitant expense, but who knows!

Sometime 7 months ago, Nadya returned to the fertility doctor and had all remaining donor sperm implanted, resulting in the newborn Octuplets. It's an absolute miracle that the 8 babies survived delivery and are still alive and it's certainly my hope and prayer that these 8 innocent babies are normal and healthy, though the odds weigh heavily against them.

My compassion however, begins and ends with these children, who didn't ask to be brought into this world by an unstable, disabled, unmarried woman who is relying completely on the government for the birth and medical care of 14 chldren, and who has no means to support, house or raise them without divine financial intervention.

And what of the fertility specialist who flicked a finger at the guidelines and implanted not one or two, but 6 embryoes in a single woman who already had 6 kids? What happened to "do no harm"? Not only should this doctor's license be revoked but he/she should be required to pay restitution to Medi-cal which will get hit with the over $1 million bill to deliver and care for the octuplets at Kaiser Permanante.

The last time I looked, we don't have an inherent "right" to bear children, and I think it's about time we focus alot more on the many responsibilities involved in making that choice. This isn't about having a perfect familial situation because many children don't. This is about the sanity of a mother of 6 requesting to double her brood, with no spousal support or monetary means, and the irresponsible, unethical and, yes, criminal actions of a Doctor, who knows all of this, and still implants a mother of 6 with double the count.

Daschle isn't fit to serve at HHS

2009-01-31T22:20:00.005-05:00

Tom Daschle is now the third problematic nominee President Obama selected for a Cabinet post in his administration. Hopefully, he's the last and should bow out now to ward off further embarrassment.

Bill Richardson, the first, quietly pulled out as nominee for Secretary of Commerce when it became apparent that an FBI investigation into pay for play activities in New Mexico would ensarl him for the forseeable future.

Newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the alleged brilliant protege of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, hung in for the long haul by offering up pathetic excuses for not paying income taxes for 4 years while with the IMF, rectifying the matter with the department he now runs, only after being caught during vetting for the Treasury post. Why it was acceptable to 60 US Senators to vote for a man to run a Department he flagrantly thumbed his nose at remains a mystery, and he certainly sets a poor example to taxpayers who dutifully pay up, regardless of the hardship.

Which brings us to the former Senate Majority Leader who we learn has also managed to evade Uncle Sam by not paying taxes for a free car and driver delivered for several years by a wealthy democratic donor. If that weren't enough, Tom Daschle has accepted at least $300,000 in speaking fees from various health care entities bent on influencing the new administration as it attempts to reform access to health care. According to The New York Times, some of these entities began lobbying Daschle immediately after he was nominated to head up the Department of Health and Human Services.

Since being defeated in his Senate reelection bid in 2004, Tom Daschle has become a very wealthy and compromised man. While he may have the years of experience and knowledge on health care matters, he has sold out to the very people who will have to be held to account and reigned in if there is to be any chance of providing equal access and affordable health care to all americans.

Daschle's compromised credibility is reason enough for him to do the right thing and pull out. That a former Senate Majority leader "forgot" to pay taxes on anything is inexcuseable and paying up only after getting caught is unacceptable for an administration which claims the mantle of change.

In tribute to William Green 05/15/1936-01/21/2009

Hoping for a Better 2009

2008-12-27T11:54:00.007-05:00

Reflecting on the interminably long and difficult year that was 2008, I would be remiss not to acknowledge the high points and there were a few stratospheric ones, most notably, the election of our new President of the United States, Barack Obama. All of us had front row seats to this most exciting, intense, groundbreaking Presidential election, and it's pretty hard to imagine a repeat for another 50 years. What we can take away from this milestone is that it has now happened once, therefore, it will happen again. What can never be taken away from all of us is that it happened, first, in our lifetimes.

We also bore witness to, perhaps, the two greatest athletes ever in their respective sports at the Bejing Summer Olympics. Michael Phelps, surpassing Mark Spitz, with his record shattering 8 gold medals in a single Olympics, and Usain Bolt tearing up Carl Lewis's records by becoming the first man in history to hold the world record time in the three marquee track sprints.

For long suffering Philadelphia fans, in the year after the Phillies became the first professional team in sports history to attain 10,000 losses, they turn full circle and win the 2008 World Series. It wasn't always pretty and the weather almost derailed the final games, but the 25 year drought finally came to an end for my hometown and her legions of fans.

On a more personal note, Heather graduated from college in 2008, and Hector and I are so proud and blessed to be the parents of two college graduates who are gainfully employed, particularly in a year where over 2 million jobs have been lost, and countless millions more struggled with less income through employment, investments, retirement accounts, or a combination of all of the aforementioned.

To say this year has been challenging would be a gross understatement for all which has transpired, but on the eve of a New Year, instead of reassessing everything that is wrong, my hope is that each of us has a role in making something better for ourselves and, perhaps, someone else in 2009.

So as we say goodbye to 2008, and good riddance to George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and the gross imcompetence of their 8 year administration, I wish everyone a better, more properous, healthy and Happy New Year.

Say No to Sweet Caroline

2008-12-22T21:43:00.009-05:00

If we've learned nothing else from the failed Presidency of George W. Bush, we should have learned that privilege and nepotism should have no place in our politics. Had it not been for the Bush name and all the money and connections that name provided, Dubya never would have been a Governor of any state, let alone the bumbling and inept leader of the free world.

8 years later, we now have another scion of a dynastic clan, Caroline Kennedy, determining that she is the best choice to fill Hillary Clinton's New York Senate seat. How did we get here? Surely, dear Uncle Teddy's paw prints are all over this, but we'll leave that tale for historians to spin.

Other than knowing her name my entire life and occasionally seeing a picture of her in a magazine or on TV, Caroline Kennedy has lived a private, protected, privileged and pampered 52 years. Unlike most of her famous cousins who ventured out into the real world as young adults to pursue careers, often for incredibly worthy causes, Caroline never did. She received an undergraduate degree from Radcliffe and a Juris Doctor from Columbia, though it appears she's never practiced law. Based on bloodlines alone, I will assume she's intelligent, but let's hold up George W. Bush as the most pertinent example of an Ivy League education, bought and paid for, as an undeserving and unworthy coronation for a dunce offspring of a rich and powerful legacy.

Why would or should New Yorkers take a chance on a completely untested candidate, with no public office experience, whose being considered solely based on a name and the oodles of money she'll be able to raise as a result? If Governor David Paterson bequeaths Hillary Clinton's Senate seat to Caroline Kennedy, he is saying to the citizens of New York that lineage and wealth trump the years in the trenches and accompanying experience offered by a host of Democratic officeholders who are infinitely more qualified to capably represent the people of New York.

I have no doubt that Caroline Kennedy is a terrific human being, wife and mother, who has suffered unspeakable loss with the assassination of her beloved father and untimely demise of her Mother and only sibling. Outside the political realm, it appears she's made a variety of philanthropic contributions over the years for which she should be admired and commended.

If Caroline wants to roll up her sleeves now and begin running for the US Senate in 2010, with a host of others, that seems reasonable and she should be encouraged to do so, however, New York needs someone now for the herculean tasks that the next Senate will face as it attempts to deal with America's meltdown, at home and abroad.

Sorry Teddy, but Caroline is not ready!

Let's Invent a Controversy

2008-12-19T13:15:00.003-05:00

I'm trying to remember the last year, or decade, that anyone paid attention to who was chosen to give the Presidential Inaugural Invocation. I seem to recall Billy Graham doing the honors perhaps once, or more, but that's no longer possible due to his age and ill health. Other than Graham, not one other name springs to mind and, rightly so.

The Pomp and Circumstance that goes along with Presidential Inaugurations is all about the outgoing President (in this case, the insufferable occupier of the White House) and the incoming President, the swearing in and the acceptance speech. 48 hours later, none of us will be able to name the marching bands, let alone speakers who gave the Invocation, Benediction or other brevities in between.

Rick Warren is one of the very few, well-known Evangelical Preachers today that most Americans can listen to and respect, even when disagreeing on specific issues. He's not confrontational and, rather than the "my way or the highway approach," he's more reasonable and opts for common ground where possible. I'm certain this is precisely why Obama chose Warren to participate in the Inauguration and I believe the offer and acceptance were in good faith by both men.

So now we have the Gay community, which heavily supported Obama, up in arms over the Warren selection because he was one of the bigger names behind the California vote last month, banning gay marriage. The ensuing brouhaha is precisely what's wrong in our politics and why nothing is getting done in Washington. George W. Bush lived by the mantra, "know your friends and screw your enemies" which is why every sector of this country has gone to hell in a handbasket. Washington simply can't work if leaders refuse to recognize diversity of thought and engage in bi-partisan solutions.

Barack Obama ran on a platform of change. Wisely, he has determined to populate his administration with individuals who are thoughful and pragmatic, rather than partisan, and he's reaching out in all directions to bring the country together, wherever possible.

Instead of creating controversy because of a specific disagreement with Rick Warren, celebrate those issues where there is agreement. That Warren will deliver the Invocation signals to the rest of us that he and others in the evangelical community believe they can find common ground with our new President on a host of issues vitally important to the nation and the world.

We've got to start somewhere and Day One seems to be the right place and time.

Dems stick with Lieberman

2008-11-18T20:22:00.003-05:00

When I called Senator Harry Reid's office 2 months ago, to urge that Senator Joe Lieberman be removed, not only from the Chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, but the Democratic caucus, I held little hope that Reid, or the Democratic leadership, would do the morally and ethically right thing and rid their Caucus of a Senator who should have been bounced for treason against his own party, nothwithstanding his politically expedient Independent designation.

Naturally, the Democrats didn't disappoint in voting to slap Lieberman's wrist by removing him from the Environmental and Public Works Commttee, while allowing him to retain that all important Homeland Security Chairmanship.

Without dwelling on the obvious precedent set where any Senator can now go off the deep end, slamming his own party's Presidential nominee without fear of retribution, there are political benefits President-elect Obama and the Dems gain in keeping Lieberman in the Caucus and under toe.

With Obama having risen above the party fray to support Lieberman, he just earned his first, big political chit, which he will promptly cash in with Traitor, now Repentent Joe as soon as the first, close Senate roll call vote makes its way to the floor. Joe will continue to bolt the party on Iraq, but the Dems don't need him there, having at least 3-4 Republican votes in the pocket with the rest of their Caucus to begin the Iraq War drawdown.

By sticking with Lieberman, there is more of an impetus for Senators John McCain and his sidekick, Lindsay Graham, to join with Democrats on votes where it's politically conceivable, including Supreme Court nominations. Obama and the Democrats have more to gain if McCain/Graham continue with their independent tendencies and they'll be inclined to do so now that the third member of their Troika has been been appeased, regardless of the foul taste.

As morally repugnant as the Democrats's decision is, alas, it's one small, short term win for Lieberman and a big victory for Barack Obama, who continues to walk on water during this transitional period by reaching out to all former opponents in his qwest for unity.

We'll leave it to disgrunted Connecticut voters to stick it to the unscrupulous Lieberman in 2012.

The Bubbas have Spoken

2008-11-11T19:01:00.013-05:00

A week after America's amazing race, all manner of interesting tidbits about how we voted in 2008 have emerged, and we're left with a fascinating picture of white america's divisions today, as opposed to 8, or even 4, years ago.

We learned almost instantly that Barack Obama received 56% of the votes of white females and 41% of white males, a higher percentage than even Jimmy Carter received way back in 1976. This positive development should put to rest further discussion about a "Bradley" effect as there's no evidence white voters were dishonest with pollsters.

Further disection of the numbers show Obama's worst performance among white voters was in the states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, all of which rank at the bottom of multiple, indexed education rankings, and the results are frightening. A paltry 10% of whites in Alabama, 12% in Mississippi and 14% in Louisiana cast votes for Barack Obama. These 3 states, with white populations ranging from 60-70%, have some of the largest black populations in the country. Their results can't simply be attributed to the usual explanations of "Democrats are liberals and they're gonna take everyone's guns away". Obama's race was clearly a factor in his dismal performance in MISALOU, and recent interviews with some Alabama voters published in the New York Times bear this out.

Rounding out the top 10 states where Obama did poorest among white voters were
GA (23%), SC (26%), TX (26%), OK (29%), AR (30%), UT (31%), AK (32%), WY (32%), ID (33%), and TN (34%). Utah, Wyoming and Idaho have large Morman populations, disinclined to support a black candidate and we'll leave this subject for another day. Alaska excluded for obvious reasons, the remaining states, again, are in the South and look to be what's left of diehard Bubba strongholds where no Democrat will be winning anytime soon, and most of us will be dead before a black candidate could dream of being competitive.

In 2008, 44% of voters overall were college graduates, a 2% increase from 2004. While this vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush in 2004, Obama won this group 53-45% over McCain. College graduate voters outnumbered non-college graduate voters in 11 states and Obama won every one of them (CO, VA, NH, PA, NJ, CT, MD, NY, MA, VT, and DC), and by an average more than 24 points. Colorado is 90% white, New Hampshire is 94% white and Vermont is over 97% white. These states are as white as the driven snow which blankets them 6 months of the year, where residents may go weeks, months, years, a lifetime, without ever seeing a person of color, yet by big majorities, they cast their votes for Obama.

Obviously, there were exceptions in all the aforementioned states, but the trend is undeniable. Affluent, white, highly educated voters who live in states, cities, towns and boroughs, where black populations are sparce or non-existent, voted for Barack Obama by large margins. Conversely, less educated, lower middle/working class and poor white voters in states, cities and towns with substantial black populations voted against Obama.

Barack Obama's candidacy was generally accepted on the merits with highly educated white voters and judged yeah or nay accordingly, yet he was never given a fair hearing among Bubbas, who appear to be completely incapable of distinguishing between legitimate concerns they may have experienced or heard about blacks locally, and a Presidential candidate who had no association, save for skin color and a funny name.

I can think of no better argument to bolster the value of a quality, K-12 education, and access to College for all who qualify and have the will and desire to expand their universe. The Bubba vote is on the decline and education is the surest
way to render it permanently inconsequential.

The McCain Post-Mortem

2008-11-09T13:38:00.005-05:00

Probably the best moment of the McCain/Palin campaign came in the concession speech John McCain delivered to supporters in Arizona on Election night. We saw the man many of us remember from 8 years ago, gracious and concillatory, recognizing the significance of the historic moment, and willing to put the country before his own interests, by extending his hand to the man who would be the 44th President, Barack Obama.

The reality of the 2008 election is that despite McCain's best and, sometimes, worst efforts, he lost alot of voters at "Hello". Though much has been written and discussed about Barack Obama, and how race and the Bradley effect might impact his chances of election, comparatively little was explored about age and how it would effect support for John McCain.

Admittedly, 2008 was a year where it wouldn't have mattered who the Republicans put up as their nominee. Their task was akin to Mission Impossible. George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, their administration and the Republican Congress have taken this country to such crushing depths, and debts, it was imperative for millions to remove this crew from as many rungs of power as possible.

Fielding a 72 year old man for the highest office pretty much guaranteed the party's ouster from the top slot. With advanced age, we associate uncomfortable thoughts like death, protracted illness, disease, stubborness, erratic behavior, inability to relate or change. Even if McCain demonstrated none of those things (he did), it's impossible not to make the association because so many millions of younger Americans cope with parents, grandparents and others who exhibit some or all of the afflictions. With family, we are inextricably bound and assume a responsibility we deem as necessary. With a Commander in Chief, it's a choice not worth the risk or heartache.

McCain's only hope of making this race close was to have sought out a top-notch experienced female running mate who could expand the narrowing Republican base of white southern and rural voters and reassure the broader electorate that should anything happen to him, the Vice President could assume Presidential duties. A terrific choice would have been the Junior Senator from Maine, who was just reelected to another 6 year term by a wide margin, and who McCain has often worked with in the Senate. Susan Collins is independent and the kind of moderate Republican who easily could have gotten the attention of disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters, with strong National Security, environmental and healthcare credentials. There were other females who fit the bill but Collins, with a resounding victory in a New England state that supported Obama by a whopping majority, should have been a lead contender for the Republican presidential ticket.

Instead, McCain played to the rabid, but shrinking white, ultra-conservative base and plucked an unknown governor with no foreign policy chops, and no experience on the national stage, effectively ceding the only argument he had against Obama, which was experience. In 2008, this country didn't want an attractive hockey mom who couldn't pass an 8th grade geography test any more than we wanted another beer drinking buddy who slurred words and persistently bludgeoned the English language whenever he opened his mouth.

By choosing Sarah Palin as a running mate, John McCain gave us no assurance that our country would be in capable hands if anything were to happen to him. He failed in this singular act as a potential chief executive by playing to our worst fears about judgement in decline, or just plain desperation.

More broadly, the Republican party needs to do some major soul searching if they wish to be relevent in the 21st century. Unlike Bush, John McCain made no effort within his campaign to present a diversified power structure. He presided over a convention where there were virtually no speakers of color. It took serious effort to spot a black, hispanic or asian at the Republican National convention, and the crowd onhand for McCain's concession speech, like all of the McCain/Palin rallys, looked like the America of 70 years ago.

You can't win a National election when you lose 95% of the black vote, 77% of the Jewish vote, over 2/3rds of the Hispanic and Asian vote, 2/3rds of voters under the age of 30, a majority of white woman, and all of the top 10 states whose populations have the highest levels of education.

Today's Republican party is insular and doesn't speak to entire segments of the country. Number one on their agenda must be expanding their appeal and it ought to begin with sidelining the social conservative wing of their party. When dealt the cards of an errant war, dismal economy, job losses, home foreclosures, lack of access to health care and higher education, the masses won't be sidetracked with school prayer, gays, reproductive choice and all other matters of moral certitude which shouldn't be amongst the Nation's great political debates.

The Courage to Believe Again

2008-11-05T15:34:00.004-05:00

The first time I ever saw or heard Barack Obama was at the Democratic Convention in 2004, as the Keynote Speaker. I listened to his words, and was riveted by this man who so easily spoke of, not a blue, nor a red, but a UNITED States of America. I knew then he was a rising political star but couldn't imagine, let alone believe, that in 4 short years, amid crisis and literal calamity, he would become the 44th President of the United States.

Since Obama announced his candidacy for President in Springfield, IL, almost 2 years ago, he emplored us to recognize this critical moment in time, our collective place in it, and how the path could change if we had the courage to believe in our best hopes, not our worst fears.

It was this leap of faith with which I grappled so hard. When you've been knocked down so many times and in so many ways by an adminstration whose policies and priorities have adversely effected your livelihood, your access to affordable health care, your kids' futures, you lose the incentive, the will and the motivation to believe that circumstances will improve or the American Dream is still attainable.

Sometime around 11pm on November 4th, 2008, when Barack Obama was declared the next President of the United States, and I looked out onto the ocean of humanity that overflowed Grant Park in Chicago, and the millions of people around the country and throughout the world who streamed into the streets ... joyous, screaming, crying, awestruck ... I realized how incredible the moment was. Barack Obama, this improbable, african-american man, who spent years dreaming of the father he never knew, took to the stage and embraced the dreams of a nation on the brink, and now entrusted to him to lead.

His election as President of the United States was the greatest political moment I have ever witnessed, capping off the most historic Presidential election of my lifetime. From beginning to end, I'm so grateful to have been a part of it, and overwhelmed with all that is great about this country. When I woke up this morning with the remnants of tears I shed last night, I also found a little bit of the courage I lost 8 years ago to believe a better tomorrow is possible.

2008 Presidential Prediction

2008-10-25T16:39:00.007-04:00

The 2008 Presidential campaign will go down in the books as the most historic this country has ever witnessed in its 238 year history. After all the votes have been cast and tallied, we will either have America's first african-american President or our first female Vice President, a cause for celebration and a testament to all which is possible for every citizen, regardless of gender, creed or ethnicity.

When the polls close one week from today, on November 4, Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States. He will carry every state won by John Kerry in 2004 and finally obliterate the red/blue divides of the last 8 years by emerging victorious in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Obama will secure a higher percentage of votes in almost every other "red" state in the country than either Al Gore or John Kerry, and has a 50/50 shot of outright winning Indiana, Missouri, Montana North Dakota.

All told, Obama will attain between 350 and 396 electoral votes. As much I loved the Presidential slugfests of the last two election cycles, 2008 will not be a repeat performance. Much of the country will watch until the wee hours on November 4th, not because the election was close or in any way disputable.

America will stay tuned all night long because we will be entering a new era in American Politics. Barack Obama will carry the hopes and dreams of a Nation that's hurting and has cast aside the politics of division in favor of the greater good and unity. Our country and all of her people are so much better than what has transpired of the last 8 years. This is our moment and now is the time to let the restoration begin.

Is Pennsylvania McCain's Last Stand

2008-10-22T22:22:00.002-04:00

It seems almost impossible that the Keystone State could supplant both Florida and Ohio to become THE battleground state of 2008, but this election is like no other and it's the first time the Democrats are fielding an African-american in a state that has gone blue since George H.W. Bush was elected President, 20 years ago, in 1988.

Had Barack Obama chosen Hillary Clinton as his running mate, Pennsylvania would have been so far off the leaning/toss-up designation that my former home state would have been deprived of the many rallies which have taken place from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Philly's grand Parkway. Instead, Keystoners have been privy to an embarrassment of riches generally reserved for the "real" battlegrounds, like Florida and Ohio.

Instead, Obama chose Joe Biden and while Biden will help marginally in Philly and the collar burbs and, possibly, Scranton/Wilkes Barre, he does virtually nothing to woo in voters in the "T" and Southwest Pennsylvania.

For those who've never been, think long lost Alabama kin, with all the hunting gear and sans the southern drawl. Fortunately, neither the "T." nor much of Southwest PA (excluding Pittsburgh). are major population hubs, but for a Democrat to win statewide election, they do have to fair better than the thrashing Hillary handed Obama in the Primary, winning many of these counties by 40 and 50 point margins.

Where the Keystone battle of 2008 will truly be fought is in the Collar Burbs of Philadelphia, and this is precisely where McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate will cost them Pennsylvania's 23 electoral votes.

The Pundit class still refers to Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester counties as republican strongholds. Having lived in the state for the first 24 years of my life, I can only inform them they are dead wrong. Anyone who grew up in Philadelphia in the 60s and 70s knows a mass exodus of white, democratic voters took place over the past 30 years, with the majority relocated in Bucks, Montco and Delaware counties. Bucks and Montco have also been infiltrated by monied yuppies from New Jersey and even as far away as New York. Generally, these out of state transplants are not Republicans, nor conservatives.

Moreover, the traditional Republican base in the Collar Burbs was of the socially and environmentally moderate variety, even 50 years ago. Republican Presidential candidates from decades ago won there because they were more of the moderate variety, in the mold of former PA governors Dick Thornburg and Tom Ridge.

Had John McCain been the McCain of 2000, in both age and ideology, and had he chosen Tom Ridge as a running mate, I don't believe Barack Obama would have been competitive in the state. Instead, McCain handed Obama the Key to victory in Pennsylvania by choosing a woman who is clearly not qualified to be commander in chief and whose cultural conservatism is far more than Collar Burb moderates can stomach.

John Kerry won Philadelphia by over 400,000 votes and won every Philadelphia precinct. Obama may lose a few of the Delaware River wards, but I predict he'll do even better than Kerry in the city overall because of an african-american turnout of historic proportions. I also believe Obama will fare better than Kerry did in the Lancaster/York areas, as well as Harrisburg, State College and Pittsburgh.

Obama will somewhat underperform in Scranton/Wilkes Barre and all bets are off on the "T" and the rest of southwest, but he'll get his needed margin of victory in the Collar Burbs, and mark the beginning of the end of the 2008 race for McCain/Palin.

Joe the Diversion

2008-10-16T09:26:00.008-04:00

After the 3rd and final Presidential debate of 2008, the next 24 hours of discussion will revolve around the ubiquitous "Joe the Plumber," a diversion McCain tossed out at Hofstra University, hoping to stick anything to Barack Obama.

Joe Wurzelbacher, aka "Plumber Joe" wants to purchase the business which presently employs him. The first question Joe ought to have asked is which of these two candidates will have the financial stewards on board to open up the credit markets because until that happens, the credit line Joe will need to purchase the business will be little more than a pipe dream.

Back to Joe, an obviously ill-informed Republican who showed up at an Obama rally; he tells Obama he's about to buy the plumbing company, which makes $250-$280K/year. Uh, earth to Joe ... perhaps you should take a business or economics course before you proceed any further with your plans. A business which "makes" $250K/year won't come anywhere near having a net profit of the same amount. Depending on the number of employees and all deductible expenses, Joe might not even have a dime of net profit. Moreover, Joe needs a plumbing license before he buys the business. Yes, this little detail, along with a tax lien, dribbled out of the Toledo Blade this morning.

Joe has relayed to news organizations that he's opposed to all forms of progressive taxation, the basis of the federal income tax, which leads me to wonder again why he showed up at an Obama rally, except as a diversion and to get on TV. Seriously, was "Joe" a plant by the McCain campaign? If Obama's tax plan "infuriates" Joe, why didn't he attend a McCain/Palin rally?

There are approximately 184,000 "small" businesses in the entire country, whose owners could expect to see an increase in their federal income tax under Obama's tax proposal, and that increase would also be partially or totally offset by his other plans to provide tax credits for hiring more employees, a 50% tax credit for adding health insurance as well as other incentives. The reality is these "small" businesses are not independent contractors or "mom and pops" but, typically, physicians or other professional groups, with gross receipts in the tens of millions.
"Joe the Plumbers" need not worry.

But, hey, when a major party candidate has little understanding of the economic realities this country faces and has, by his own votes, inextricably linked himself to the fiscal and tax policies of a failed Presidency, "Joe the Plumber" is the usual decoy used by Republican candidates, in concert with Chamber of Commerces around the country, to defend corporate tax breaks with trickle down policies bent on the destruction of America's middle class.

What's so sad is that "Joe the Plumber" actually believes Republicans give a damn about him. They never have and they never will, which is why every instant poll after the 3rd and final debate showed Barack Obama trouncing John McCain.

4 more years of the last 8 amounts to doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Diversion doesn't stand a chance against the change "We The People" will insist on November 4th.

Can Obama Win Florida? In a word, yes!

2008-10-13T22:57:00.004-04:00

6 months ago, during the heat of the Democratic Primary, I was fairly confident that if Barack Obama prevailed, Florida would not be a toss-up state in November. After all, Hillary Clinton had so much built-in support in the Sunshine State, particularly among women, Seniors, Hispanics and Bubbies, and there is some resistance within 3 of these groups to vote for an african-american candidate. Additionally, Clinton had the backing of an overwhelming number of Democratic elected officials, including a surprising number of african-americans, most notably, Congressman Kendrick Meek, who remains one of Bill Clinton's "homies" and regularly appeared with Bubba when he campaigned for Hillary.

We're 3 weeks away from the 2008 election and Florida is again, smack dab, where it's been for the last 8 years ... proudly in the toss-up column. It's the biggest electoral prize and, if McCain loses here, he doesn't have an alternate road to victory.

Florida is really 3 states in one. Take Tallahasse out of the North and Tampa/St. Pete out of the West and what you have left is some combination of Alabama/Georgia, which extends from Naples to Sarasota, and everything north of Orlando. South Florida, which stretches from Palm Beach County south to Key West, is basically a transplanted version of New York City, with many african-americans, multi-generational immigrants, Jews and mega-rich. Finally, we have the I-4 corridor which extends from Tampa/St. Pete through Orlando out to Daytona Beach. It's mainly WASP country, with a healthy dose of Cubans in Tampa and the largest population of Puerto Ricans outside of NYC, in Orlando, Kissimmee. I-4 resembles no other state in the country, which is probably why every election here is determined by this microcosm of Floridians.

As is always the case, I've written off the Alabama/Georgia part of Florida to McCain and awarded South Florida to Obama. I-4 is the election, the death match, and it generally splits down the middle.

So what's working here for Obama in 2008? First and foremost is new registrations and the youth vote. Florida is in the top 5 in the country with new voter registrations and Democrats are leading in that effort by a sizeable margin.
Florida is also home to 10, huge, public universities as well as the Miami-Dade community colleges (10 locations). Massive registration drives have taken place at all of the schools and Obama will substantially outperform McCain at these 20 locations, some of which are located in areas of the state that, otherwise, will go for McCain, like Gainesville, FL, home to University of FL and its 40 thousand students.

Secondly, is Florida's slumping economy and horrific housing market. Though much of the downturn is in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, the I-4 corridor has been hit hard, and this will tilt I-4 votes to Obama.

While I expect Obama to do no better with Cubans in Miami, and Crackers dispersed throughout the state, and perhaps worse, he's going to improve over 2000 and 2004 with non-Cuban hispanics, and swamp McCain with voters 18-30 as well garnering a near unanimous african-american vote. Where Obama will make up the difference and prevail is with white, female moderates living in and around Disney World.

And isn't it fitting that in the magical land of Mickey, Martin Luther King's dream will be fulfilled, as Barack Obama goes on to become the 44th President of the United States.