College Basketball Chronotope

Summer dreams

2009-07-09T09:33:00.000-07:00

Former Hoosier dunks on LeBron, but you won't see the video:

IU Basketball:
Last I heard, Crean was still waiting on two of the best recruits (Mo Creek- the most "ready" and Bawa Muniru- "the most potential") to get eligible. Muniru just needs to finish a class, but Creek needs to pass qualifying exams. Crossing my fingers- the Hoosiers need everyone next season.

IU Soccer:
Evidently ranked #7, which leaves outside the Final Four again next season. Todd Yeagley, who I played with in High School (and did some asst. coaching of me- not that there was much he could do with my skill set), is now the head coach at Wisconsin. I wish him well there, but I still root for the Hoosiers first.

IU Football:
Just looked it up to confirm my suspicion, and yes, IU's the worst all-time team in the conference. The Hoosiers' .424 winning percentage is below even Northwestern's .435. That's pretty sad. I root for those Hoosier footballers, but they always seem to break your heart. Firing Bill Mallory was the worst thing IU sports ever did to their football program.

USA Soccer
After the thrilling comeback to get into the semifinals on the Confed Cup, beating Egypt 3-0, USA then stunned #1 Spain 2-0 before leading Brazil 2-0 at the half. Brazil came back and won 3-2, but the Americans were really playing with Brazil throughout the whole game. Yes, Brazil's midfield is way better and did a better job with possession, but the US has a good defense and a great counterattack now. Great to see, and watch out for these Yanks in the World Cup next year!

Whimsical Top 50 for 2009-2010

2009-06-26T11:42:00.001-07:00

We've gotten to that point in the summer, where most of the post-NBA draft fallout has settled, a few of the weird off-season events have occurred (Iowa's implosion, Illinois' former walk-on Jeff Jordan walks-off the team), and we all start to get an idea of what the landscape of college basketball is going to look like next season. So, it's time for some ridiculous prognostications! In the last few years, I correctly picked UNC for '09, incorrectly picked Tennessee for '08 (but hey, Memphis 2nd), and correctly Florida for '07. So, without further ado, here's my why-the-heck not top 50 for 2009-2010:

1. Kansas
2. Tennessee
3. Villanova
4. Purdue
5. Duke
6. Washington
7. Kentucky
8. Michigan State
9. West Virginia
10. Butler
11. Texas
12. Clemson
13. California
14. Minnesota
15. Mississippi State
16. Wake Forest
17. Siena
18. Vanderbilt
19. Brigham Young
20. Dayton
21. South Carolina
22. Notre Dame
23. Tulsa
24. Nevada
25. Connecticut
26. Michigan
27. Northern Iowa
28. UCLA
29. Gonzaga
30. Memphis
31. Maryland
32. Louisville
33. Oklahoma State
34. Akron
35. North Carolina
36. Cincinnati
37. Creighton
38. Texas A&M
39. Utah State
40. Northwestern
41. Boston College
42. Seton Hall
43. Kansas State
44. Ohio State
45. Old Dominion
46. LaSalle
47. Oregon State
48. Western Kentucky
49. Hofstra
t-50. Illinois
t-50. Florida State

Big Ten Individual Player Projections for 2010

2009-06-05T14:46:00.001-07:00

I've once again reviewed the 150 players slated to play basketball in the Big Ten conference season, and run down some basic rankings here.

This is mostly based on my effective per-possession production numbers, that I just released. There are a few exceptions, such as Robbie Hummel & Raymar Morgan, who I expect to be much better next year (and healthier), and actual Big Ten POY Kalin Lucas, who take more of a starring role next season. I also slightly downgraded UIUC's Demetri McCamey & Iowa's Jarryd Cole for having to switch positions to shore up their respective teams' weak points.

In the freshmen section (at the bottom of the rankings), I predicted a few starters and bolded their names. Derek Elston & Christian Watford of Indiana, Gerrick Sherman of MSU, DJ Richardson for Illinois, and Cully Payne for Iowa. This isn't to say that a number of the other freshmen won't get serious, even starting minutes, but I've always held that players like Royce White, et al,shouldn't be counted on to dominate their positions in their first year. But that's my bias, which is occasionally very wrong (my doubting of Greg Oden's first-year performance comes to mind).

Btw, blogger has decided my ratings shoot-off blog is spam. I've requested them to unlock it, but that's just weird.

Big Ten Conference Efficiency Ratings!

2009-06-03T12:50:00.000-07:00

Get 'em while they're hot! Or ice-cold.
My apologies for the late release. I've been busy, and this is the first break I've had to run the numbers. I'm putting these new numbers to work for prognosticative purposes for next season, and I'll have another position-by-position ranking of the returning players out in the near future.

Here's the what and the why?

The quick summary of the top producers in conference play this year is here.

School-by-school rundowns can be found here.

And of course, the full report can be found here:

P.S. I know this is old, but check out John Gasaway's final conference check/efficiency margins to learn who had the best offense in the Big Ten this season. It surprised me.

Slow spring

2009-05-12T07:40:00.000-07:00

Now that college basketball is over for the year, I turn to the methadone that is the NBA playoffs. The Boston-Chicago series sure was something! The Bulls might actually be back on the move up, after it looked like their rebuilding efforts were stalling out. Keep an eye on the offseason movements in Chicago.

As for the rest of the playoffs, well, I don't really care, but I'm always happy to root against the Lakers. But unless the Rockets pull a fast one over the next couple of games, I don't see the Nuggets or Cavs taking them down. But I'll probably root for the Cavs at this point- King James may be the only star in the league that gets more preferential treatment than Kobe.

Soccer has started, but I don't know, I think I've taken too long a break from it. It's hard to get interested. Although I didn't know that a professional women's league had started up again in the US. Evidently US Star Abby Wambach took somebody out on a hard tackle and is getting suspended. Check it out.

Early uninformed prognostication

2009-04-25T11:17:00.000-07:00

Just for kicks, here's my thoughts on next season's Big Ten race:

1) Purdue
Five returning starters means that the Boilers are the best bet for the Big Ten 2010 title. Add a great recruiting class that should make up for the loss of their bench, and what you will probably see out of this squad is a few more turnovers, but more offensive rebounds to offset that. The caveat here is Robbie Hummel's back. If he's able to hold up better under the pounding next season, they're a lock for the top- if not, the Boilers really suffer. When Hummel was healthy both E. Moore and Keaton Grant seemed to play better. If there are more health problems, PU drops a few spots.

2) Minnesota
They return almost everyone and add a couple of top-shelf recruits in Royce White and Rodney Williams. Add a year of experience for their young centers, and Tubby's team will be competing for the conference crown. The half-court offense is still a little bit of a concern, but this is a team on the rise. They didn't finish particularly strong manner, but the defensive potential here is off the charts- with Nolen's pressure, Iverson and Sampson inside, and Damian Johnson's eye-popping block-steal combination.

3) Michigan State
Since the Spartans are coming off of a Final Four, and returning the vast majority of their offensive weapons, it might seem a little insulting to put them at third in the conference, no? I truly mean no disrespect, as I believe the Green will be competing for another conference title. However, Walton and Suton were stellar defenders, and the loss of those two is going to hurt. Just as when Indiana lost Jeffries and Fife after the 2002 title-game run but returned everyone else, MSU is going to have to suffer a step back this season.

4) Michigan
Manny Harris and Dion Sims are coming back, which is huge for coach Beilien. Sims is the engine through which the UM system operates, and getting Manny Harris to operate within it was something I just didn't think was going to happen last year, let alone with a freshmen backcourt (Douglass, Lucas-Perry, and Novak). But kudos to Beilien, who brings his first heralded recruiting class. The Wolverines are relevant again.

5) Northwestern
Huh? Say what? I'm am indeed calling a top-5 finish for NU next season. The Wildcats were thisclose to breaking through and ending the NCAA tourney. But a number of close losses relegated the Wildcats to the NIT, and their second-best season ever. But building on this, Coach Carmody has a host of returning big men who had, all-in-all decent freshmen seasons. Look for a lot more out of 6-8 John Shurna. Throw in the Ginobili-esque scorer Kevin Coble, steady hand Michael Thompson at point, and defensive wrecker Jeremy Nash on the wing, along with a couple of decent frosh recruits- and NU is primed for its best season ever. 2010 is their year.

6) Ohio State
The Buckeyes have no recruits coming in, and last year's crew wasn't exactly a recreation of the "Thad Five." And now that BJ Mullens has taken the hardship route (honestly, too), Matta's crew is going to have rely on hot outside shooting to win. I suspect this means another season of .500-level conference play. William Buford should continue to develop, as long as Evan Turner's still in Columbus, the Buckeyes are a NCAA-worthy squad.

7) Illinois
Although Mike Davis and Demetri McCamey return, both were effective with Frazier and Meachem running the show. Now that these ball-handlers are gone, I think McCamey's effectiveness is going to take a big fall. The Illini will do well against non-conference foes, but in Big Ten games when foes pack it in, it's going to be up to the freshmen and Alex Legion to hit some threes to allow the Illini offense to run. The trend for the Illinois offense has been discouraging, and those who point to last season's revival, I counter with the Penn State game and suggest that Illini fans are going to see more that kind of play next year.

8) Wisconsin
The Badgers actually did pretty well once they shook off the six-game losing streak. But most of their inside toughness has graduated now that Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft are gone. Nankivil and Leuer aren't bad, but they'll scare no conference foes, meaning that the Ryan's interior defense is going to rest on the shoulders of some big guys who never got off the pine last season, and 6-7 frosh Mike Bruesewitz. I might be underestimating UW, but I think it's going to be a rebuilding year.

9) Penn State
PSU can feel good about proving that they should've gotten a NCAA invite by winning the NIT championship. But in losing seniors Cornley and Pringle, they lose two rocks of stability, as well the scoring balance that Pringle and Morrissey provided in spreading the floor for Cornley to work inside or for Talor Battle to drive. The return of Battle will ensure that the Lions don't fall to the cellar, but there's precious little help on the roster for him. And after two straight years of winning more games than their scoring margin suggest they should, I wouldn't be surprised if a little bad luck came their way next season.

10) Indiana
Hoosier fans will have an actual team to cheer on next year, and a lot of young talent to watch develop. This team will be a lot better at the end of next year than at the start, tho. Before IU hoop-heads get ahead of themselves with this great recruiting class, they need to remember that the 2009-2010 squad will still be almost entirely freshmen and sophomores. An overall winning record is a longshot, but is in the realm of possibility.

11) Iowa
I don't know what's going on over there, but next year will probably be pretty rough for the Hawkeyes. They might bounce back well after this next season, but to have Jake Kelly transfer after seeing him emerge as a dangerous combo guard has to be discouraging. At least Matt Gatens is still on the roster, but there's no inside game to be found here, and no steady hand at the point. That's trouble.

Williams leaves Hoosiers

2009-04-23T08:30:00.000-07:00

I am sorry to see Nick Williams leave. The kid played hard, and while he made a lot of mistakes, a lot of was asked of him as a freshman. Filling in as a 6-4 power forward in the Big Ten probably tops that list. But I thought he had good defensive instincts, and an offseason of working on his outside shot and passing would've kept in him the rotation at least as a part-time starter. But I guess he was intimidated of the new recruits, particularly how Maurice Creek & Christian Watford look to be getting a lot of time on the wings.

My guess is that IU's starting line-up won't look tons different next season, as Pritchard, Jones, and Dumes might well stay. I really wonder who's going to be filling in at the four-spot? Watford doesn't seem strong enough, Derek Elston might be the best bet but he looked really rusty recently, and while Bobby Capobianco should be strong enough but I wonder about his offensive ability. Bawa Muniru, I'm guessing, will be a good shot-blocker off the bench, like George Leach. Jeremiah Rivers is going to probably get quite a few minutes and be very valuable, but I suspect he'll be primarily a defensive stopper, and be brought off the bench to settle things down. Maurice Creek will likely come off the pine to be instant offense- (unless Watford can hold down the four-spot, then maybe they both start), and Hulls & Roth will get mostly back-up or situational minutes. Daniel Moore, Brett Finkelmeier, Tijan Jobe- thanks for playing, you're now practice players.

In any case, I suspect Pritchard and Jones are going to be more efficient next year with more help, when Crean is able to rest them and put other threats on the floor at the same time. The offense really came alive when the ball was in Jones' hands and the shooters were hitting, which then gave Pritchard room to operate. But Jones & Pritch's numbers might remain the same due to decreased minutes. Watford should be a go-to scorer for the Hoosiers, and Creek could be a consistently viable threat as well. I'd be surprised if there was a lot of offensive production from anyone else, but maybe Elston or Hulls could surprise. Still, I suspect that Crean will have to rely on Dumes' inefficient and inconsistent scoring for one more year.

One last thing in defense of Dumes, as I was watching the second half of the season (DVR'd, didn't get around to watching PSU & MSU until last night), I noticed that although Dumes had a lot of turnovers, he also saved one or two TOs a game by really running down errant passes. Things like that and good defense don't show up in the box score, and I think a lot of Dumes' inefficiency was caused by trying to do too much. He'd probably fit on a successful team as a part-time starter, because he can play defense and is always a threat to score. His passing (I can't count how many times I saw Dumes with the ball and Roth open in the corner, and *every* time Dumes just holds on to that ball) is probably his biggest weakness.

Congrats, Carolina

2009-04-07T20:16:00.000-07:00

Since Tyler Hansbrough enrolled, the 'Heels have been a constant title threat. It would've seemed wrong, in a way, if Lawson and Hansbrough had left without a title. That said, I was rooting *against* my bracket for MSU, and was sorry to see them get left in the wreckage that followed UNC's path of destruction.

Carolina fans must've remarked to themselves, "Waaahlll, those thar Tarheels done went through the turnipment lahk Sherman through Jawjaw!"

I keed. My own gene pool filled is filled with sparkling Appalachian.

Seriously, UNC was just the way better team. I was just happy that the Big Ten acquitted itself well enough. 9-6 overall, I think, in the Big Dance, and 5-1 in the NIT due to Penn State's win. The ACC and Big East were probably stronger conferences this year, but the Big Ten at least belonged in the top three. And with most of the conference's talent expected to return plus a number of very good recruiting classes, the Big Ten may have a great shot returning to the top next year. However, this makes Crean's job even harder next year, and although there'll be considerably more talent on hand next year, don't be surprised at another lower division finish. At least the Hoosiers likely won't be dead last next season.

Still alive, still watching basketball

2009-03-31T17:34:00.000-07:00

And by "watching" I mean stacking games up on my dvr. More like paying attention to the gamecasts while tapping away like a fat pigeon on my thesis. I look forward to a time when I can return to the Big Ten Basketball conversation with stats and arguments and theoretical approaches.

I did get Michigan State correct (yay me!) as well as UNC and in one bracket even got UConn. But my bracket where anything was at stake had Pittsburgh and Memphis. I can still do okay given that I have UNC beating MSU for the championship, which I think looks like a pretty good scenario. But this was not a year that I was particularly well-informed about college basketball.

In IU news, I see Malik Story transferred. It's too bad, but maybe for the best. He provided a lot of depth for the Hoosiers this year, see action at all spots from point guard to power forward. He probably even played center at some point this season. And he was one of the few players who could really create plays and wasn't afraid to look for his shot. The downside of that was Story was a fairly poor shooter (36.5% FG overall, 24.6% on threes, and 58.9% on FTs), below average in every category even on *this* team. And he had a lot of turnovers. But I wish him well in his new school.

Big Ten Tourney Time!

2009-03-12T06:47:00.000-07:00

No need for a Power Poll this week, the teams have sorted out themselves... or have they? The difference between second-place Purdue and say, Northwestern, has proven to be pretty thin. And the tourney has proven to be pretty cruel to higher seeds. But I don't think this is going to be a problem for Michigan State, which is the deepest and best team in the tourney. They should win walking away.

The NCAA selection committee is probably rooting for the Hoosiers this afternoon so they can justify leaving out Penn State, which barring a really nice run, is probably what's going to happen to PSU. The Big Ten can get 7 teams in (the top 5 seeds should be a lock), but it would require at least two wins and another upset by PSU and/or Michigan. And Minnesota can't lose to Northwestern again, but if it does, NU needs to run the table to get the league all its bids.

My all-uninformed Big Ten selections (my HPER ratings are on hiatus until I get a good draft of my thesis handed in).

Big Ten Player Of the Year- All bloggers should take a moment to hail Spartans' Weblog's particular genius, 'cause I don't think anyone saw this coming, up until even maybe a month ago. But Kalin Lucas was picked the Big Ten POY because he was the best player on the best team. And Travis Walton got defensive honors for a similar reason.

...However, I slightly disagree on both counts. Don't get me wrong, no disrespect meant- they are worthy...Hoosiers should be so lucky to have such a backcourt. But there are other worthies as well. To wit, noone does steals and blocks like Minnesota's Damian Johnson. He averages 2.0 steals and 2.1 blocks per game, which is an amazing combination and top 30 nationally in each per-possession category (according to KenPom). He's the obvious defensive POY in my book.

For Player of the Year, the choices are tougher, as you've got a number of very good players who are incredibly valuable to their teams: OSU's Evan Turner, Purdue's Robbie Hummel, NU's Kevin Coble, Michigan's Manny Harris & DeShawn Sims. I would also add the oft-overlooked Goran Suton- just look at the difference in the Sparties before and after his return.
However, on intangibles, I gotta go with Talor Battle. The sophomore point showed some real leadership, ran his team well in conference play, and pulled a couple of really surprising upsets. Penn State should not, by all expectations, be in the NCAA at-large hunt. But thanks to the game-winner by Battle at home, the Lions nailed down a sweep of the Illini, and it's just one of many big shots he hit this year. Battle racks up assists while keeping turnovers quite low, he shoots a good percentage from behind the arc despite being the focus of the opponents' defense, and he gets to the free-throw line. There's not a lot of separation statistically between Lucas & Battle, Battle's a little better with the Assist/TO ratio and better at 2pt FG% but worse at threes & frees. But Battle was also probably "more valuable" to his team, and honestly, as I said above, the statistical intangibles tip it for me, especially those big shots.

All Big Ten
Talor Battle (PSU)
Manny Harris (UM)
Evan Turner (OSU)
Kevin Coble (NU)
DeShawn Sims (UM)

All Freshman
Delvon Roe (MSU)
Matt Gatens (Io)
William Buford (OSU)
BJ Mullens (OSU)
Verdell Jones (IU)

2009-03-03T07:35:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (13-3)
It's all over but the shouting. Congrats, Big Ten champs.

2. Purdue (11-5)
The Boilers should handle NU at home just fine to clinch at least a share of second place, but at MSU on Senior day in the final game is pretty daunting. All this settled now, the question for Boiler fans is: how far do these guys get without a healthy Hummel in the NCAA tourney?

3. Illinois (11-6)
Getting owned at home by Michigan State finally proved what I've been thinking about these guys all along- they just are not at a level of title contender. I've seen a lot of these kinds of teams at Indiana: they're a good team that plays well together (usually) and when they're hitting their threes they are a very formidable opponent indeed. But this is the end of road for Meachem, Frazier, and Brock, barring a great run in the postseason. The Illini have to win at PSU or they'll fall into that 4-5 bracket in the conference tourney.

4. Penn State (9-7)
The Nittany Lions have probably the weakest non-conference resume of all the Big Ten bubble teams, so they need to make sure that they beat Illinois at home on Senior Day, and then win at Iowa to clinch a top-three finish (heck, maybe even tie for second!) to ensure a NCAA bid. Drop one of those games, and PSU will have to make it up in the conference tourney. Drop both, and PSU will be headed back to the NIT.

5. Wisconsin (9-7)
The home win over Michigan, combined with a probable senior day win over Indiana, has just about secured Wisconsin's redemption. They've got a tough game (and probable loss) at Minnesota looming, but to finish with a winning record after that brutal in-conference six-game losing streak shows that old Bo Ryan dominance we've come to respect. Consider that outside that losing streak, Wisconsin has been 9-1 in conference this year, and the only loss was at Michigan State. Now, that streak does count, and Wisconsin needs to make sure that it takes care of business, but I suspect they'll be okay on Selection Sunday.

6. Minnesota (8-8)
Losing in Champaign is nothing to hang one's head about, but Minnesota also is firmly on the bubble and has two games left with teams who are on it as well. Minnesota faces Wisconsin and Michigan, and although they're at both at home, Michigan especially could bump Minnesota off the bubble if they engineer a sweep of the Gophers. Michigan has a better non-conference SOS and signature wins, so it is imperative for Tubby's NCAA chances that Minny fends off that other UM.

7. Ohio State (8-8)
The Buckeyes won a blowout over Penn State at home, but then got blown out by Purdue on the road. OSU is now firmly on the bubble, but the schedule is pretty good from here. As long as Matta can get his guys to win at Iowa and fend off Northwestern at home, a rematch with Iowa awaits in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Win those three games, and I think OSU will have done enough to get an at-large NCAA bid. Any slip-ups tho, and they don't deserve to get in.

8. Michigan (8-9)
This continues to be a two-step-forward/one-step-back year for Michigan. They notched a great home win over Purdue, but then lost a tough one at Wisconsin. Coach Beilien is a year ahead of where I thought he'd have this team, but it won't be good enough to make the NCAA tourney, unless Michigan wins at Minnesota and gets to the semi-finals of the Big Ten tourney... at least.

9. Northwestern (7-9)
The Wildcats have an overall winning season sewn up, and have tied for the second-highest ever win total for NU! A blowout win at Indiana and close home win over Iowa have left NU with a chance to pull in .500 in conference with two games left. However, those games are at Purdue and at Ohio State. It's not impossible to get both, but very unlikely, which leaves me thinking that Carmody's team is pretty much locked into a NIT berth.

10. Iowa (4-12)
The Hawkeyes, incredibly, looked competitive in both road games at MSU and NU. The bad news is that the Hawkeyes are now 0-9 in conference road games. They've got two home games to try to boost their overall record back over .500, and they've got Cyrus Tate back. However, point Jeff Peterson is unlikely to make it back this season, and that may create much of a difference in the final games against PSU & OSU.

11. Indiana (1-15)
All the remaining "reasonable" chances for wins have now gone by the wayside, so barring a huge upset, Indiana looks bound for 1-17 conference season. The Hoosiers could surprise somebody in the conference tourney, but as the #6 seed will still be trying to prove their worth to the NCAA selection committee, it seems pretty unlikely. It's been a year of survival, and faithful Hoosier fans who suffered through this season will be rewarded in the future.

What do Indiana & Michigan State have in Common?

2009-02-27T11:03:00.000-08:00

They both have home losses to Penn State and Northwestern this season.

Of course, MSU is a *lot* better than IU right now, but I'm just saying, let's keep in perspective. The streaks that ended that season were just that, streaks that ended (and ones that probably should've ended a while ago if not for a little luck on the Hoosiers part- I'm thinking of 1994-1995, specifically), and IU won't be this bad next season. And Penn State and Northwestern are worthy top 100/post-season teams, and the Hoosiers aren't. PSU & NU are just better this year. Hoosier fans have to look to the future.

That said, most of our new talent next season will be freshmen (with the exception of transfer Jeremiah Rivers), but Christian Watford should be able to start and be a go-to scorer that we just don't have right now. This season isn't over yet, so let's not start predicting next year's line-up at the moment, but we've only got three more games to suffer through. And probably, we IU fans will be suffering as the remaining contests are at Penn State, home against Michigan State, and at Wisconsin... and all those teams need the wins, so they won't be soft on the Hoosiers.

But hey, IU could always win the Big Ten tourney, right?

I keed, I keed.

Big Ten Power Poll Week 8

2009-02-24T10:06:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (11-3)
The Sparties hold their destiny in their hands. The regular-season conference championship (which to me, frankly, should decide the automatic NCAA bid, but I'm a traditionalist) is theirs if they win out. Iowa, @Illinois, @Indiana, and home against Purdue. What is of concern to Izzo has to be the way MSU got rolled at Purdue. The Illinois game seems like a probable loss, but if they get healthy, who knows? And even if they lose at Illinois, as long as they win against the conference cellar-dwellars, they can still stamp their victory with the finale at home versus PU.

2. Purdue (10-4)
The Boilers beat down their rivals, but this "rivalry" hasn't been much of one for the past 15 years. It seems the Hoosiers and Boilers alternate down years, and although the Boilers have been slightly disappointing, this is *the* all-time down year for the Hoosiers. The Boilers have a bit of a rough stretch here at the end, traveling to Michigan and facing Northwestern and Ohio State at home. All those are probable wins but possible losses. If they get through that fine, then they travel to a revenge-seeking Michigan State in their senior game. And if Purdue wins there, they'll get the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney, and live up to the pre-season hype.

3. Illinois (10-5)
From last week "I just haven't been convinced that this is a real contender to the conference crown." Watching most of that "game" with PSU reaffirmed my suspicions that this is an also-ran. But, then Weber's kids go out and beat OSU in Columbus. It seems that the Illini are clearly above the middle-class of the Big Ten, but whether Penn State is above them will be settled in the final game of the season. This week they have only a home game with Minnesota, and a win should lock up a NCAA berth.

4. Penn State (8-6)
I don't know how PSU did it, but the 38-33 win at Illinois was huge in keeping this team's NCAA hopes alive. The game tonight at Ohio State looks intimidating, but if the Lions can win at Iowa, hold off Indiana at home, and finish the sweep of the Illini in their final home game, their chances look pretty good for getting to the Big Dance. If they finish just 2-2 over these four games, I'd bet they need to win a couple in conference tournament to get in.

5. Wisconsin (8-7)
The Badgers are not the team they used to be, as the loss at Michigan State revealed, but they're not to be taken lightly either, as that loss ended a five-game win streak. The Badgers have three games left, and the two home games are against Indiana and Michigan. If they can win at Minnesota, they're definitely in, but I would guess they finish 10-8 and need at least one win in the Big Ten tourney to get that ticket to the Big Dance.

6. Minnesota (8-7)
I think that the Gophers don't quite have an at-large bid sewn up yet. They're probably looking at a loss in Champaign this week, but if they can hold off Michigan and Wisconsin at home, then they're looking strong to get that bid.

7. Ohio State (7-7)
From last week "...they've got to start picking up some conference road wins as their NCAA resume is fading. The big wins over Miami & Notre Dame are now starting to look increasingly less impressive, leaving OSU firmly on the bubble. I think Matta's guys need to 4-2 down the stretch to get an at-large bid." Well, the two losses are in. Can the Buckeyes go 4-0 to close out the season? PSU & NU at home seem doable enough, and they can get a road win at Iowa, but the probable loss at Purdue will put them pretty squarely on the bubble, I would think.

8. Michigan (7-8)
On the one hand, the home win over Minnesota was nice, but the loss at Iowa has put their backs against the wall. The Wolverines are going to have to win out to make a case to get into the NCAA tourney, which means beating Purdue at home and sweeping the resurgent Minnesota and Wisconsin teams on the road. Don't get me wrong, they're ahead of where I thought they'd be this year as UM seems a lock for the NIT (I had them with no postseason). But fans who were savoring the wins over UCLA and Duke earlier are probably a little disappointed.

9. Northwestern (5-9)
The Wildcats snapped their losing streak with a thrilling home win over Ohio State, but then got blown out at Minnesota. Carmody needs the team to have a good week with a visit to Indiana and a home game against Iowa. If they win both, a winning season is guaranteed. That would be Carmody's second at NU (2002) and would tie for the second-highest ever win total for NU!

10. Iowa (4-10)
Iowa beat Michigan to nudge themselves back over .500 overall (14-13), but a winning season doesn't seem like it's in the cards this year. If Cyrus Tate comes back, maybe they get the road game at NU and hold off OSU & PSU at home, but throw in the game at Michigan State and the uncertainty of Peterson & Tucker's availability, and you've got a rough schedule stretch to end a rough year. The good news is that Jake Kelly and Matt Gatens are turning into solid young wings that play well together.

11. Indiana (1-13)
I was hoping for the Hoosiers to pull a bit of a surprise against Wisconsin, but the Badgers are hitting their stride and are focused on achieving a postseason. At least, I hope that's what's happening, 'cause the alternative is that the young Hoosiers are just wearing down.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 7

2009-02-17T08:05:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (10-2)
The defensive clampdown of the Wolverines at Michigan has pretty much wrapped the conference race up for MSU. All they have to do now is split the home-and-home with Purdue, and either win at Illinois or have OSU beat Illinois while avoiding any other upsets and claim the regular season Big Ten conference title. This is far and away the conference's deepest and best team, but Izzo needs guys to start getting healthy for the stretch run.

2. Illinois (9-4)
The Illini avoided disaster at Northwestern, pulling out an incredible comeback win, and then held off the scrappy Hoosier comeback in the second half. Still, despite having the position and momentum to challenge MSU, I just haven't been convinced that this is a real contender to the conference crown. If they can beat MSU at home, that'll help convince me.

3. Purdue (8-4)
The Boilers have turned around what was looking like a small slide with a smashing win over PSU and scrappy performance at Iowa. However, they've got two games with Michigan State left, as well a trip to Michigan. If Painter is able to get his guys to sweep Michigan again, then the Boilers are back. I just don't see it happening with a half-strength (at *best*) Hummel, 'though.

4. Ohio State (7-5)
The only game the Buckeyes had last week was a loss at Wisconsin, and while it's not enough to bump them below the Badgers just yet, they've got to start picking up some conference road wins as their NCAA resume is fading. The big wins over Miami & Notre Dame are now starting to look increasingly less impressive, leaving OSU firmly on the bubble. I think Matta's guys need to 4-2 down the stretch to get an at-large bid.

5. Wisconsin (7-6)
Bo Ryan's team has been somewhat of a hard-luck club in the Big Ten, but noone's feeling sorry for him, I can tell you. In the six-game losing streak, four of those losses were either by three points or less and/or overtime games. Their resume isn't looking super-great, as the only non-conference win of note is at fellow bubble squad Virginia Tech. From here, UW plays Indiana twice, but also travels to Minnesota and MSU. This team's bubble may be decided in the conference tourney.

6. Minnesota (7-6)
Probably the game to watch, if you're a Gopher fan, will be Thursday's contest at Michigan. If Minnesota wins there and holds serve at home, they will have done all they needed to do to get a NCAA tournament invite. The loss at Penn State doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in Tubby's ability to win in Ann Arbor, but it's a crucial game for this team.

7. Penn State (7-6)
From last week "Looking down the rest of the schedule, it seems quite possible that the Nittany Lions don't go .500 in conference play, which means they're probably out of NCAA berth contention." Penn State has to finish strong, but games at Illinois and Ohio State are probably losses, meaning this inconsistent team has to win their last three conference matches to get above .500 to have any chance at a NCAA slot. if they can win at either Illinois or Ohio State, the road to the Dance looks a lot smoother.

8. Michigan (6-7)
The Wolverines got a good win at Northwestern, but the shameful home loss against a short-handed Michigan State team was the knee-capping of their NCAA hopes. They'll either have to sweep the next five games (possible, if improbable) or they'll have to win the conference tourney. Either way, it'll require a consistency and a winning streak that we've not seen out of Michigan so far this year.

9. Northwestern (4-8)
It was just a terrible week for Northwestern, letting a huge lead get away against Illinois and then losing in OT at home against Michigan. If NU is able to go 2-4 (or even 3-3) in their final conference games, they'll finish with an overall winning record and be ready to really move forward next season. But the Wildcats have a very hard schedule ahead and have had so many opportunities just slip through their fingers this year.

10. Iowa (3-10)
The Hawkeyes missed a golden opportunity to take down Purdue at home after getting demolished at Wisconsin. But the good news is that the only one of their last five games that seems un-winnable is at MSU. Games at Northwestern and home against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State could all be wins, especially if they get point guard Jeff Peterson back.

11. Indiana (1-11)
Devan Dumes' errant elbows may have cost the Hoosiers a chance for their second win, as they actually seemed to somewhat contain the Illini defensively and be within striking distance -if only they'd hit their free-throws- but Illinois just had too much experienced talent for the Hoosier freshmen. The Hoosiers only other reasonable chances for a win are Wisconsin at home, Northwestern at home, and at Penn State. PSU & Wis. need the wins for a possible NCAA berth badly, so NU looks like the most likely option for a second conference win.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 6

2009-02-09T13:02:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (9-2)
On one hand, the Spartans looked pretty good beating down Minnesota and Indiana while not at top strength. On the other, a quite rough stretch of the schedule approaches. IF MSU does not win at Michigan, they must 1) at least split the home-and-home with Purdue, and 2) either win at Illinois or hope OSU beats Illinois while also losing to Purdue, while 3) avoiding any other upsets, in order to claim the regular season Big Ten conference title. But the good news for MSU fans is that Tom Izzo is in the driver's seat, and he knows how to get it done.

2. Illinois (7-4)
Thrashing Purdue at home gives the Illini a nose into second place. They've got the schedule to finish strong, and should be a lock for the NCAA tourney. However, catching Michigan State for the conference title is now probably out of the question.

3. Purdue (6-4)
Robbie Hummel's back issues have got to be terrifying Boiler fans. Without him, Purdue just isn't as good. Jajaun Johnson is doing a nice job inside, but Moore & Grant aren't quite where they were last season, and there's no real back-up for Hummel inside. Getting beat in OT at OSU, and even getting thrashed at Illinois is understandable, but PU has to turn this around before this turns into a streak.

4. Ohio State (7-4)
Nothing like a couple of big home wins to boost your chances. The OT win vs. Purdue was crucial to confirming OSU place in the upper division of the conference. However, they'd really be helped by notching a couple more road wins, which looks quite do-able (last four OSU road games: Wis., NU, Pur, Iowa).

5. Minnesota (6-5)
This Gopher squad is now seemingly in free-fall, with the Illinois win sandwiched by a lot of bad losses and a narrow win at IU. I think they've got to finish with a 10 conference wins to get into the Big Dance, but the schedule from here out looks 50-50. Still, of all the teams in the Big Ten, Tubby's is perhaps the one who could finish at .500 and still get in.

6. Penn State (6-5)
From last week "The next three games (@Mich, v.Wis., @Pur.) should illuminate the bubble question: anything less than 2-1 means PSU are firmly on it." Yep, PSU is back on the bubble, likely now to go 0-3 for the stretch. Looking down the rest of the schedule, it seems quite possible that the Nittany Lions don't go .500 in conference play, which means they're probably out of NCAA berth contention.

7. Michigan (5-6)
Despite a loss at Connecticut, this was actually a great week for Michigan. The way the Wolverines played on the road against one of the nation's top teams reminded everybody of their earlier performances against Duke & UCLA, and it looked good for the Big 10, too. And Michigan absolutely thrashed Penn State in a home conference game.

8. Wisconsin (5-6)
Back-to-back wins! Maybe the Badgers have just been on the wrong side of the dice this year, as the home dismantling of Illinois and the road win over Penn State bring this club back to life. They really need to put a streak together, tho, but they've got a favorable second-half schedule.

9. Northwestern (4-6)
In their only conference game of the week, the Wildcats lost a big one at Iowa. If they can't get the bottom-dwellers on the road like Iowa & Indiana, their NCAA tourney chances sit at zero. As it is, they'll probably have to spring another upset or two on the road and make some noise in the conference tournament to get considered.

10. Iowa (3-8)
A loss to lowly Indiana was followed by a narrow home win over Northwestern. This is pretty clearly the conference's second worst team, at least without Cyrus Tate. Is he ever coming back? What about Anthony Tucker? Is he going to transfer or will he get some PT?

11. Indiana (1-9)
The Hoosier's *r-o-l-a-i-d-s* win over Iowa means that the team won't be going defeated in conference play. However, there wasn't much to build on in the loss at Michigan State. Not because of the margin of victory, MSU seems to beat everyone by that score at home or they lose, but because Dumes finally let his temper, which had been cooking all season long, get the best of him as he threw multiple nasty elbows which eventually got him ejected and suspended. And good for the suspension, coach Crean! Either Dumes learns to play with class or he can find another team to move on to next year.

A BIG sigh of relief

2009-02-05T09:01:00.000-08:00

Indiana will not go defeated in conference play, hanging on to win at home over Iowa. I had this date circled all year as the one game that the Hoosiers probably should win in the Big Ten. And as Iowa was still without Cyrus Tate, it would've been a big disappointment if the Hoosiers hadn't hung on for the win. But they did!

Everyone's talking about Devan Dumes' big shooting night (which was very much needed when what should've been our advantage- inside play- became something of a weakness when Tom Pritchard had just a terrible night, fouling out in 14 minutes), but to me the hidden hero was Nick Williams. He just never let up, hit the boards hard, executed, and caused all sorts of problems including that last steal which sealed the Hawkeyes' doom. His defensive play is definitely coming along, and I can really see him keeping his starting spot in the years to come. Also, Kyle Taber was only credited with one steal, but I think he forced several Iowa turnovers in addition to his rebounding and blocked shots. I'm not sure what's up with his free-throws (two ugly, ugly misses), but he had everything else going last night.

With Dumes and Roth starting to find their range outside, and with Jones settling down at the point, and Taber & Pritchard providing some stops on defense, coach Crean is finding himself in possession of a basketball team. There isn't much depth here, outside of Moore and Story, who just can't be trusted to play starter's minutes yet for reasons of turnovers (have you seen Story's conference assist/turnover ratio?) and defense (Moore needs some lessons from Erreck Suhr about on-the-ball defense). There won't be many more wins this season, unfortunately, but there could be a surprise or two left in these guys. Good on you, Hoosiers.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 5

2009-02-02T18:59:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (7-2)
On the one hand, I'd like to throw out the NU & PSU home losses as aberrations, and just think of them as games where MSU lost its focus. But this Sparty club is starting to look a little like the old Loyola Marymount teams- sure they can score, but can they stop anyone? I don't know, Izzo's got the "Izzo depth," maybe he should try running a bit more and wear the other team down. That used to be my playground strategy: if you can't stop 'em, wear 'em out.

2. Purdue (6-2)
Well, look who's back again, making themselves relevant and scary in the conference race! The Boilers have to survive road trips to Ohio State and Illinois this week, but if they do, they might just able to slip into first place in the conference again. Getting that win at Wisconsin was huge, but maybe there's just something about that place that Hummel just really likes. His late threes were the dagger late in that game, and he had zero hesitation in shooting them.

3. Minnesota (6-3)
Getting that convincing over Illinois has seemingly jumbled up the Big Ten race but good. But to me, I think it's clarified that most of us fan-bloggers were correct at the start of the season; really it's MSU & Purdue for the title and everyone else but Indiana is scraping around for a post-season bid. But holding Illinois to 36 points is most impressive.

4. Illinois (6-3)
The Illini had a lock on the #2 spot, and given MSU's home to loss to PSU, looked like they were going to be able to maybe grab a piece of the conference title. But the stinking-it-up at Minnesota was not redeemed with a narrow home win over Iowa.

5. Ohio State (5-4)
The Buckeyes still haven't convinced me they belong in the NCAA tourney, but their chances look 50-50. If they can defend their homecourt, Matta's crew should be a solid bet- especially if they get David Lighty back anytime soon.

6. Penn State (6-3)
The great win at Michigan State has now given the Lions the kind of marquee win that the NCAA selection committee really likes. The next three games (@Mich, v.Wis., @Pur.) should illuminate the bubble question: anything less than 2-1 means PSU are firmly on it.

7. Michigan (4-6)
It's not really fair to expect the Wolverines to go on the road and win at OSU and Purdue, but how long can this team cling to the wins over UCLA and Duke? I'm guessing this is a club on the way down, but hey- with Manny Harris- who knows?

8. Northwestern (4-5)
The Wildcats have bounced back nicely after the 0-4 start. Still, close home wins over Indiana and Wisconsin could've gone either way. This isn't the most intimidating club, but at least they're headed the right way.

9. Wisconsin (3-6)
What is happening? I really expected more out of Landry, Krabbenhoft, and Hughes. But maybe it's just a stretch of really, really bad luck. Hey, after the breaks the Badgers got in Bo Ryan's first season (for me, the win at IU crosses my mind), perhaps it is just the karma evening out.

10. Iowa (2-7)
The Hawkeyes could really use Cyrus Tate back right about now, as their chances for a winning season are slowly leaking away. Of course, I'm hoping he comes back right *after* the IU game. The Hawkeyes could also use a good scoring point guard, but still, Jeff Peterson's still better than anyone the Hoosiers have at that spot.

11. Indiana (0-8)
The good news is that the Hoosier offense has finally woken up, and Matt Roth's record-tying 9 threes were beautiful to behold. The bad news is that IU is running out of its best chances to get a pressure-releasing first conference win. Iowa at home will be their best chance yet.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 4

2009-01-26T14:41:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (6-1)
The Sparties currently still look like the conference's best team, redeeming a terrible home loss to Northwestern with a crushing road win over Ohio State. It looks like Spartans' Weblog was right: just throw that NU loss out as a statistical aberration until any further evidence of weakness comes in.

2. Illinois (5-2)
The fightin' Illini had a lot to do with other teams bad weeks, as they put the dagger into both Ohio State and Wisconsin. Granted that both games were home games that Illinois should be winning, if you look at the earlier road win at Purdue, Illinois is definitely the second best team in the conference right now. And if comes down to the end of the season for the conference title, they host Michigan State in their last home game.

3. Purdue (4-2)
Slowly climbing back into this thing with a nice road win at Minnesota. If they can follow that up with a road win at Wisconsin, the Boilers are truly back in conference title contention. But they probably need to win at Illinois in a couple of weeks before they move any further up the rankings.

4. Minnesota (5-3)
A loss followed by a narrow win at Indiana. Honestly, if Indiana hits its free-throws, Minnesota's NCAA tourney chances would've taken a serious hit. But for now, they're coasting along despite the home loss to Purdue. And yet, with Wisconsin and Ohio State tanking, they might still lack a solid conference victory at this point.

5. Wisconsin (3-4)
Incredibly, a Bo Ryan team now has four conference straight losses. The Badgers have to rally in a home game against Purdue if they want to stay in the NCAA at-large bid conversation. The road loss to Illinois was perhaps to be expected, but that OT loss at Iowa really stings. I think Joe Krabbenhoft has to step up and ask for the ball a little more.

6. Ohio State (3-4)
OSU started conference play with a not-great week, then had a bad week, followed it with a really good week, and now have had another bad weekin getting both by MSU (at home) and at Illinois. Neither is really a bad loss, but neither was close either. Thad Matta has to get his guys to bounce back and start being competitive, because a good stretch in the schedule is approaching and they could put together a much-needed win streak.

7. Penn State (5-3)
The home wins over Michigan and Iowa don't do anything to move them up the standings. If they sweep their Michigan road trip they'll get a big bump up, but I don't see that happening. Jamelle Cornley is finally starting to play like the senior star he is, but the Nittany Lions' fortunes rise and fall with their three-point shooting.

8. Michigan (4-4)
The Wolverines snapped their losing streak with a nice win over Northwestern. But Michigan also absorbed a loss at PSU and is looking more and more like a NIT team than a NCAA contender. Manny Harris is still filling up the stat sheets, but the UM defense needs a bit of tightening, I think.

9. Northwestern (2-5)
Two straight wins over ranked teams wasn't be translated into any momentum as NU couldn't win at Michigan. But that win at MSU will remain one of the best wins the Wildcats have ever notched. When I watched the first game against the Spartans, I thought to myself "why is Coble shooting so often?" Now I know. Conference opponents have been warned.

10. Iowa (2-5)
Even though the Hawkeyes are stuck between the mediocre (PSU, NU, Michigan) and the really bad (Indiana), they seem to be coming on a little stronger as their finally getting so inside play from former reserves (first David Palmer, and Aaron Fuller vs. PSU). But as Lickliter's still getting little production out of their bench on any given game, and Cyrus Tate remains injured, the season's outlook still isn't bright for this club. The OT over Wisconsin was nice, though, even if the collapse at PSU took a little of the luster off.

11. Indiana (0-6)
Another close loss in the only game of the week, hosting Minnesota. The Hoosiers haven't given up, but they just aren't as good of a team as everyone else in the conference. The next week-and-a-half holds the very best chances for this club to notch a conference win: at Northwestern, home vs. a slumping Ohio State, and on Feb. 4th, a home match vs. Iowa.

What? The Mildcats win at MSU?

2009-01-22T08:50:00.000-08:00

Crazy. I knew the Wildcats would be better, but this is a win that I doubt anyone else notches. Spartans Weblog chalks it to up to statistical aberration and says to let it go. It's why they play the games after all. But if NU is able to win at MSU, IU's chances of taking them down at home can be considered a diminishing.

In this great week of ours with this historic inauguration, I'd encourage Hoosier fans to read over Jared Jeffries' words here.

And in the good IU news column, after the Women's team pulled away from Purdue late at home, they're now alone in first place in the conference. At least someone in the Cream and Crimson is playing some good basketball!

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 3

2009-01-19T11:23:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (5-0)
Izzo's team is just continuing to win, despite a relatively narrow escape at home vs. Illinois and a close call at Penn State. The Spartans keep notching victories, which is what champions do. I'll mention how much better this team since getting Suton back and how deep this club is, but I think it's most noteworthy to Marquise Gray finally excelling. His outstanding performance against Illinois was almost certainly the difference in the game.

2. Illinois (3-2)
Actually, a narrow loss at Michigan State may be the serving of a notice to the rest of the conference that Illinois is a real title threat in the Big Ten this year. The Illini handily avenged their loss to Michigan, and only lost at MSU because their shooters (Meachem & McCamey) went cold- although I'm sure the Sparty defense had a little to do with that.

3. Minnesota (4-2)
I've been something of a skeptic of this club, despite its ranking, and last week did nothing to dispel any questions. The Gophers go and beat Wisconsin on the road in OT, and then lose at Northwestern. How good is a win at Wisconsin? Very good indeed, but how bad is a loss to Northwestern? For now, I'm guessing not that bad.

4. Wisconsin (3-2)
It's only one game, but the badgers lost in OT at home to Minnesota. I do still think this is a tough, well-balanced team, but I honestly expected a little more out of Joe Krabbenhoft in his senior year. I think that unlike the last few years, this UW club just looks beatable, which is a dangerous thing. If Krabbenhoft steps up and leads a little more by example on defense, the Badgers could get some of that swagger back.

5. Purdue (3-2)
The squeaker at Northwestern won't restore anyone's confidence, but the blowout win over Iowa should help boost the shooters (Grant, Moore) that the Boilers need to contend for the title. This week may hold the Boilers' ultimate destiny with road games at Minnesota & Wisconsin. If they can get both of these, Purdue is back, if neither, they're in trouble.

6. Ohio State (3-2)
Great week for OSU with a blowout win over Indiana, and then with their confidence back they go on the road and hold off a furious rally at Michigan. Nicola Kecman, after a nice debut vs. Houston Baptist, didn't play in either win, and David Lighty still isn't back, so the really good news is that the Buckeyes are figuring out how to win with the troops they have.

7. Penn State (3-3)
Actually, these Nittany Lions are looking like they are quite a bit better than last season's incarnation, but they've never had a guy like Talor Battle before. When Battle waved everyone off and swished a 25-footer at the shot-clock buzzer with a hand in his face to quell a second-half surge by the Hoosiers, that was confidence I'd never seen from PSU player before. And Stanley "lotion salesman" Pringle may actually be even more impressive in conference games so far, but I'll have to crunch the numbers on that in a couple more games. Still, challenging MSU, even in a home loss, is probably more impressive than a win at Bloomington this season.

8. Michigan (3-3)
Bad week. Michigan now looks like the weakest of the contenders after getting thumped by Illinois and losing at home to Ohio State. It's a good thing they've got those wins over UCLA & Duke in their back pocket, because that makes the Wolverines probably the only club that could finish 7th in the conference standings and get a NCAA tourney bid.

9. Northwestern (1-4)
A win! Just when I was starting to doubt whether the Mildcats really were better than last year, they get their first win over a ranked team. This week looks to be a little rough with two games road games in Michigan, but the schedule lightens up after that.

10. Iowa (1-4)
The chances of getting to any postseason are rapidly diminishing for the Hawkeyes. If Tate comes back fully ready to go by the end of the week and Iowa starts defending its homecourt, then they might be able to squeak into the NIT or CBI. And while we shouldn't get down on any conference club for two road losses, the Hawkeyes just seem a little less competitive then they were earlier this year.

11. Indiana (0-5)
The good news: the Hoosiers are more competitive at home and now have a favorable stretch in which they can notch their first conference win. The bad news: This just isn't that good of a team. There are some freshmen pieces here (Pritch, Williams, Jones) but not enough to stay tough against ten other conference teams all looking to get to the postseason.

'Nother beating

2009-01-14T12:20:00.000-08:00

I didn't expect a win at OSU, they have the combo of shot-blockers and shooters that really expose this Hoosier team's shortcomings. But, I didn't expect Tom Pritchard to have a good game and for the Hoosiers still to lose so badly. They really have to start defending the three-point shot a lot better.

But a good stretch is now approaches for the IU team. I don't know that they'll get a win in the next five games, but it's certainly their best chance to notch a conference victory until they host Northwestern at the end of February. I remain confident that the Hoosiers will win at least one game. But it's going to continue to be a rough go on the road this year.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 2

2009-01-12T09:06:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (3-0)
The Sparties are looking like the best conference team by far, and picking up a nice win over Kansas while Lucas is starting to get his shot falling results in a week that should have the other Big Ten teams nervous. Everyone seems to be playing better since Suton got back- he won't wow you with per-game stats, but he may be the best center in the conference.

2. Wisconsin (3-1)
The Badgers suffer their first loss at Purdue, but with Hummel's first game back from injury, that's really not a bad loss. Bo Ryan's got his club in good position for yet another title run. It seems strange to say, but I'm most concerned about the Badger defense.

3. Illinois (2-1)
Hopefully the Illini feel better about last season's losses to Indiana, because they played just about perfectly and crushed the walk-ons and freshmen that make up the Hoosier squad. Bruce Weber has assumed the mantle of the new Gene Keady in that he always looks like his team has never gotten a call, ever, even when they're up by 30.

4. Michigan (3-1)
It's a sweet-shooting scrappy club that Beilien has put together, but they're probably also a bit lucky not to be 2-2 after an OT win at Indiana, and the home victory over a Tate-less Iowa is unlikely to convince anyone that this isn't a middling conference team. But, hey, they're 3-1, and they can beat anybody.

5. Minnesota (2-1)
I'm still not really sold on these guys, despite the blowout win over PSU. They were barely able to win at Iowa, even after Cyrus Tate went down early. While I do think their pressure will spell big problems for IU, I don't see them as a real threat to Wisconsin or MSU yet.

6. Purdue (1-2)
The Boilers seem to have some sort of strange grip over Wisconsin. The home win was nice for a team just starting to come back and a healthy Hummel makes a big difference, too. Keaton Grant & E'Twuann Moore need to get back on track offensively if the Boilers are going to challenge MSU, tho.

7. Penn State (2-2)
Yes, I know the Lions just nipped Purdue last week. But, it was a home game for PSU while Purdue didn't have Robbie Hummel, so they didn't face the real Boilermakers. But give them credit, they are earning their wins and looked respectable in a loss at Wisconsin. If the game at Minnesota wasn't an aberration, then they might be in trouble, but I'd guess they're still a NIT-worthy team.

8. Ohio State (1-2)
Of all of the teams here, I think the Buckeyes are really the ones on the knife-edge. They're good enough to make the NCAA tournament, but they're also not good enough to overcome a really bad conference start, either. They've got to start taking care of business if they want to bounce back.

9. Northwestern (0-3)
The Wildcats start out with a tough schedule, so Carmody has to rally his troops so they don't get too down after a bad start. They'll get some wins, but if they want a post-season, NU has to scrape out a road win or two.

10. Iowa (1-3)
Losing Cyrus Tate in a narrow home loss to Minnesota hurts this thin club really badly. The rest of the month (@Pur, v. Wis., @PSU, v. MSU, @Ill.) looks like it could be pretty brutal. Good thing they eked out that narrow home victory against IU early.

11. Indiana (0-3)
I'm not giving up hope, even with Dumes injury. Dumes could create offense, but he also created a lot of opportunities for the other team as well. Any game could be where the Hoosiers could jump on somebody and spring the upset. Well, probably not at Ohio State, but Jones & Williams are starting to get more comfortable in the offense, which is good when not much else is.

Beatings

2009-01-11T14:50:00.001-08:00

It's rough being a Hoosier this year, but I'm still watching. It's tough to see the OT loss to Michigan followed up by an absolute killing at Illinois (they didn't miss anything, it seemed: 3 threes from Keller?). But the silver lining is that I'm starting to see freshmen Verdell Jones and Nick Williams get comfortable in the offense. With Dumes out with a rolled ankle (he should be back before too long), Jones & Williams should have some practice time to start getting used to looking for their shots.

Up next is a game at OSU, which if they shoot threes like Illinois, could be another tough one for IU fans. But after that is a good five-game stretch where the young Hoosiers can compete, and hopefully notch their first conference win.

Keep working hard, Hoosiers. It'll pay off.

Big Ten Power Poll 2009, Week 1

2009-01-06T06:45:00.000-08:00

1. Michigan State (2-0)
Two road games, two wins. One has to think that MSU has the inside track to a conference championship, but it's still very early. I've been impressed with the composure that this extremely athletic club exhibits, as long as they have a healthy Suton on the floor.

2. Wisconsin (2-0)
Never, ever count out the Badgers under Bo Ryan. However, teams 2-7 are all bunched in one strata, in my mind. Wisconsin deserves the "first among equals" status, not just for being one of two undefeated teams two games into conference play, but also for the nice win at Ann Arbor.

3. Illinois (1-1)
Illinois got a nice win that few others will get this season, a surprise victory at Mackey Arena. While it's hard to fault them for coming away from two road games with a split, you definitely can't put them above UW, who won where the Illini didn't.

4. Purdue (0-1)
This is probably the lowest that Boilers will get in the power rankings, barring a real let-down. I'm confident in Painter's squad bouncing back. However, I will say that this club is struggling forward, rather than taking another quantum jump like we saw happen last year.

5. Minnesota (1-1)
The Golden Gophers are still something of a mystery: sure, they lost at home to MSU, but that might prove to be a pretty common experience for conference teams; and they held serve at home vs. Ohio State, but OSU was probably at a low point in terms of personnel available. No worries, tho', because by the end of January we should know plenty about Tubby's team.

6. Michigan (1-1)
They couldn't beat Wisconsin at home, but they did snap back with a good win over Illinois. If the Wolverines can stay above .500 in conference play, they've got a good shot at the NCAA tourney, but they can't lose many more home games if that's the goal.

7. Ohio State (1-1)
They've lost David Lighty for at least the month of January, Anthony Crater transferred (but honestly won't be missed- PJ Hill seems to be picking up the slack just fine), and forward/center Kecman is now available. The latest word is not to expect Kecman to provide much more than Terwiliger used to, but even that'll help. The Buckeyes aren't looking like a conference title contender, but they aren't out of the running for an NCAA bid.

8. Penn State (1-1)
Was it PSU looking tough at Wisconsin, or was it just Wisconsin not putting away an inferior team? The Nittany Lions have done a pretty good job challenging at the end of games, which helped them avoid a home loss to Northwestern. Still, I'm not sure they should be this up this high- Northwestern may well prove to be the better team.

9. Northwestern (0-2)
The above caveat aside, NU's off to another bad start. You can't heap too much blame on Carmody for getting a loss on the road and a home loss to Michigan State, but the Wildcats have got to start winning conference games. It doesn't get any easier with a game at Wisconsin and home match vs. Purdue up next on the docket.

10. Iowa (1-1)
The Hawkeyes wasted an incredible three-point shooting display at OSU, going 14-28 from beyond the arc while getting few points otherwise in a narrow loss. The home game against Indiana couldn't have been reassuring to the Hawkeye faithful either. I don't know how much having Anthony Tucker will help, but it's got to help some. However, there's something funny going on between Tucker & Coach Lickliter, because Tucker's PT has gotten real funny. This is often what player stats look like right before a transfer is announced.

11. Indiana (0-1)
I've said plenty about Indiana. I suppose one could make an argument that in conference play, Indiana only has one narrow loss as opposed to Northwestern's multiple losses and therefore shouldn't be in last place, but who would I be fooling? Probably just myself. Nick Williams' play at Iowa was a nice surprise, tho, hopefully that continues.

IU-Iowa thoughts

2009-01-05T13:03:00.000-08:00

I was actually pleased to see the Hoosiers pull back into this game and actually threaten an upset on the road. I was also disappointed to see perhaps IU's best opportunity to spring a stunner on the road slip away. But at least the turnover rate is slowly ticking down.

What I liked:
The hustle, the never-say-die hard work on defense, and the rebounding! Aside from a blown box-out here and there, it was surprisingly good work on the glass from this undersized club. Kyle Taber & Tom Pritchard deserve some credit for hanging in their despite foul trouble, even if they couldn't contain Cyrus Tate. Also, Nick Williams has some go-to ability to create his own shot, which was great to see when Dumes fouled out. If the Hoosiers continue to compete like this, they won't go defeated in conference play.

What I didn't:
The fouls (it is always a challenge to learn how to play tough D on the road without fouling). Daniel Moore stands out here for getting four fouls in 11 minutes. Taber fouled out in 17, but his final foul was absolutely the right thing to do (preventing a lay-up/dunk). The foul-shooting in the first-half made me sick, but the Hoosiers redeemed themselves in the second half. And while I liked Dumes' ability to create offense, he still plays a bit sloppy and has too short of a fuse. And ultimately, our biggest problem continues to be just relying on too many freshmen, as they just commit obvious freshman mistakes (blown lay-ups, silly fouls, pointless dribbling). There's nothing Crean can do about playing freshmen, but hopefully he can continue to educate them about the mistakes while keeping them motivated for the next game.

Go Hoosiers.