Bucks Diary

THIS BLOG HAS MOVED TO: mvn.com/bucksdiary

2009-01-06T14:17:00.002-06:00

All new writing on this blog is being posted at mvn.com/bucksdiary. Click on the link to be immediately redirected. Thank you for your interest in the NBA and Milwaukee Bucks basketball.

The Commenters excellent warning

2009-01-02T21:11:00.004-06:00

Seeing as how I Typhooned the mvn.com/bucksdiary... for now... I cannot give proper credit to an astute commenter a few posts back whose words of warning ought to give Bucksnation a little pause.

Remember my Win Trajectory post, written around Xmas or just days thereafter? In it I argued that the Bucks are on a 44 win pace this season, when you make adjustments to account for unbalanced schedule and home/road splits thus far. In the comments section, someone wrote that had I done the same calculations two years ago, the Bucks were probably I'd probably have gotten similar results.

I thought the commenter was right, but I lacked the information to verify, and I certainly wasn't going to go back in time and reconstruct the first two months of the 2006-07 NBA season. Then I thought of a shortcut. I remembered that Coolstandings.com, which has a win projection system not at all like mine but normally yielding close to the same results, keeps records going back several seasons. There projection would suffice.

Whoa. The commenter was eerily correct. The Bucks record two years to the date the commenter posted was 16-15, and they were on a slightly better pace. Coolstandings had them projected to win 45 games. Tip of the cap to the commenter.

Of course the bad news is the Bucks won only 10 more games the rest of the season and finished 26-56. Scary.

But, I think the factors that led to the collapse were by and large outside the realm of forecast... injuries devastated that team as I recall. And they may (knock, knock, knock) do the same to this team... who knows?

Another key difference that I think is worth noting is the 06-07 team was powered by offense, while this season's team is most certainly powered by defense. Defense is much steadier.

Nevertheless, thank the commenter's fine Milwaukee Bucks memory for a warning against early hubris.

I accidentally blew up the new Bucksdiary

2009-01-02T17:54:00.002-06:00

Remember I said not to be alarmed if anything strange happened at the new mvn.com/bucksdiary? Well, something strange happened.

Through a simple mistake compounded by a "don't push that button" attempt to backtrack and restore the blog, I appear to have destroyed it.

So, while the guys at MVN.com hopefully will restore it to what it was, I'm going to post everything back here again.

Maybe they won't have any interest in restoring it. Who knows. All i wanted to do was install a statcounter.

Yeah, that didn't work.

Have any of you switched over?

2008-12-25T00:38:00.002-06:00

Have any of you switched over to the new site? I'm having difficulty figuring out the functionality over there and the normal commenters haven't been around and there are some interesting issues arising with our successful Milwaukee Bucks. There may be opportunities for further advancements (our highest paid players are doing nothing... our lowest paid player is a blossoming superstar). So PLEASE let me know if you like this deal. So far I'm kind of like... eh... its frustrating. But its supposedly a lot bigger audience. But right now it feels like one of those George Lucas or Stanley Kubrick movies where somebody landed me on an all white planet by myself and I can't find any signs of civilization...

Here's where the new driveway is, gang

2008-12-23T22:05:00.001-06:00

If you haven't found the new location, for Bucks Diary, its here mvn.com/bucksdiary.

The Arguments against Redd explained through the use of stupid analogies

2008-12-22T17:31:00.004-06:00

People are misunderstanding my argument against Michael Redd. Let me try to lay it out with odd analogies.

The "Perceived Value versus Real Value" argument against Redd

My brother had a Saab. He paid a relatively high amount for it. When it ran, it was okay, he got some head nods from passersby, not a lot. But the damn thing never ran. He also had a Ford Focus (I'm making all this up). Didnt pay alot for it. It ran beautifully, was pretty reliable, but had absolutely no cache.

One day my brother asked himself, was that little bit of cache he was getting from the Saab worth the price he was paying for it. It never ran... it didn't get the CENTRAL job done that a car must do to be worthwhile ( in my story cache is meant to be analagous to Redd's scoring numbers while the 'never running' part is meant to be analagous to his lack of 'Win Scoring'... Geez I'm explaining the analogys... I aint exactly Sir Winston Churchill.)

Now, my brother says to himself... there's alot of suckers out there who will pay too much for my Saab, but would probably only give me market value for my Focus. Hmmm, perhaps I can sell the Saab (ie "his overvalued asset") to some sucker who would be willing to give me something more than it is worth. Gee, I would be much better off. I will have cut ties with my expensive, OVERVALUED ASSET, and gained some productive assets... assets that can help the Bucks win a Championship.

That's why I want to trade Redd. I like driving him around on Friday night, but geez I can't pay through the nose for that little return. And, alot of people think Saab's are sweet, so they may be dumb enough to give me too much back (in terms of Win Production) for him.

Hell, the Pistons traded one of the NBA's best Win Contributors, for like 4 seasons running, for a mediocre Win Contributor who basically volume scores and runs his mouth and I guess doesn't like to practice.

So opportunites are there. Oh, one final point.

Even if we only get market value back for Redd... and this is actually a HUGE POINT, he plays a position that's pretty easy to replace with a pretty decent player... so EVEN IF WE BLOW THE TRADE... no big whoop... PLUS... Redd's monster contract is off the books.

The "Distribution of Basketball Talent" argument against Redd

Let's say there's a ton of electricians in the area and most of them are slightly below average, average, or slightly above average, with some being supertalented (Kobe) and some not so good (Ben Gordon). Meaning there is a low standard distribution (am I saying that right? I actually avoided statistics in college... i'm self taught -- like Lincoln... or, ... not like Lincoln). On the other hand, there's just slightly less plumbers in the area, but they vary wildly in talent, with few being average, many being way below average, a handful being above average and then a few being superb. Meaning there's a high standard deviation. Just play along with me, I know its dumb.

Who's more valuable? A slightly above average electrician or a slightly above average plumber? The plumber, obviously, because if you lose him you risk getting stuck with something horrible. Whereas if you lose the slightly above average electrician, you can replace him with someone who can do a reasonably good job.

Redd and his fellow perimeter players are the electricians. Big men and point guards are the plumbers. Why in the world would you offer a slightly above average electrician a maximum contract? Yeah, he'll do a nice job, but your distribution of resources is f%%d.

I'm here and I'm there!!

2008-12-22T13:36:00.001-06:00

Everything in life is relative, idn't it?

2008-12-22T10:28:00.012-06:00

I'm sitting here loving all the comments on BucksDiary (btw, its unclear now when I'm moving to MVN so just keep coming back here... when i move i'll put a link up don't worry)... I'm loving Milwaukee Bucks basketball again... I'm proud to be an Antlerhead for the first time since they traded Ray Allen... then I'm thinking "Hey, if my buddy from Celticsblog, or if JE Skeets, or if anyone who isn't an Antlerhead is reading this... they're laughing their asses off... we're13-16!!".

But, so what? Everything in life is relative. Or, better put, everything in life is trajectory, and the Bucks trajectory appears to be pointing up.

In fact, this is how Mike Holmgren might have described the situation in one of his legendary locker room speeches... you know the ones... you've seen them on NFL Films... where he meanders all over the place trying to get the team's attention before he gets to his point and then puts the team in a frenzy... well here's what I imagine Coach Holmgren might say, courtesy of NFL Films, about the State of the Milwaukee Bucks... lets listen in (if you like it, Coach Holmgren has promised to make intermittent appearances on BucksDiary, similar to BD on that pompous political comic strip)...

"Gentlemen, gentlemen... hey... (loud voice) hey, hey, hey... hey... guys, listen up... guys... cut the chatter... guys... (conversational voice) We had a NICE couple of wins there on Friday and Saturday (Loud Cheers)... didn't we?... yeah, we did... we sure did... we sure did... a nice couple of wins... and I thought the defense played pr-e-t-ty well... pr-e-t-ty well (loud cheers)... and the offense... hey... hey, hey... the offense... well, its comin around... I think it is... i think it is... its comin around... but hey... hey, hey, hey... listen up... listen up... we haven't achieved... guys, guys... we haven't achieved anything yet... Have we? (Humongous cheers )... our goals are BIG... aren't they?! (Even louder cheers)... YES SIR THEY ARE!... But, hey.. hey, hey, hey... guys, guys, guys... we're building something here in Milwaukee, aren't we?? Yeah... You're proud to be a Milwaukee Buck again, aren't you?!!... YES SIR YOU ARE!!... (Maddending Cheers)... NOW LETS CARRY THIS MOMENTUM TO TEXAS!!!!! (Roars)... LETS CARRY IT TO TEXAS (Continuing Roars)... EVERYBODY IN HERE!!! EVERYBODY IN HERE (everybody huddles up)... (30 second pause)... Where's Brett?... Hey, where's Brett?..."

Everything is Green and Red

2008-12-21T20:41:00.002-06:00

I just checked basketball-reference.com. I've been doing this blog for what... geez almost 4 years off and on. I cannot remember seeing more beautiful (relatively speaking) numbers for the Bucks than the ones I just checked.

First, were near the one third mark, we've played a tough schedule, road heavy, and our Pythagorean is above 0.500. Second, our defense, which you've heard me say time and time and time again has not been above 15th in the NBA for over a GENERATION (since Del Harris coached the team... chew on that) is now EIGHTH in the NBA and rising, and... even better news, our offense has improved!!

Two things... maybe I should lay off Redd a bit. But guys, I'm not arguing he can't help the offense... OBVIOUSLY he can!! What I am arguing is he simply isn't worth the money. Think about it this way. Lets say you have... oh screw my analogies!! Just know he's good but you don't pay 15.75 million for a frickin Corolla!!

Second, my sabermetric chart says ... whoaaa... on that "Redd is back, therefore its Redd" cause and effect reasoning... Others have improved simultaneously... Jefferson, Bogut.... Charlie V if you catch him on the right night... Whether Redd had anything to do with their performance, I doubt it... Professor Berri did exhausting research on the so-called "he makes others better" effect, and found it did not exist -- NOT EVEN WITH JORDAN OR BIRD... so I doubt it exists with a no pass gunner like Redd.

But I'm getting sidetracked. The point of this is the Bucks numbers rule. Go Bucks... got work to do... see ya.

Were those the Bucks Lambeau Leap games?

2008-12-21T20:02:00.005-06:00

Normally I try, weakly, to emulate Bill James, the baseball writer. Tonight, I'm going to try to emulate Bill Simmons, the "sports guy". So this post is based on nothing but my "gut". And, sadly, it will probably be alot more popular and conversational than the Jamesian posts that I actually put alot of effort into. Oh well, (hey, I'm super wordy like Bill Simmons!) here it is:

16 years ago next Saturday, Christmas Day 1993 to be exact, I remember I believed the 8-6 Mike Holmgren Green Bay Packers were kind of the same old Green Bay Packers. Pretty good, yeah, improved from Lindy Infante, yeah, a little better coached, to be sure, but headed ultimately to a fate of at best 9-7 seasons, one after another, and then a series of one and dones in the playoffs. In other words, they were nothing special.

The next day, December 26th, the Packers played an okay, 8-5 Los Angeles Raiders team at Lambeau Field. The Raiders weren't great, but they were formidable. The Packers beat them down so thoroughly, so completely... LeRoy Butler invented the Lambeau Leap that day... I just remember thinking after the game... this shit is different. These aren't the same Packers. They're headed for a different plane. NFL Films says the Packers victory over the Lions in the play-offs two weeks later set them on their way... I say it was the win over the LA Raiders two weeks previous.

Of course the analogy with these Milwaukee Bucks is by no means pure. Its way too early in the Skiles era. And remember, even after the Raider beat down it took the Packers setback after setback to reach the pinnacle. And by the way, I'm not saying the Bucks can get close to the pinnacle... because basketball is different and harder.

But after 20 years of poor defensive teams, didn't those two victories just feel great? Weren't they sort of "paradigm shifts" in your mental impression of the Milwaukee Bucks? Didn't you walk away thinking "these aren't the same Milwaukee Bucks"?

I did.

That's all I'm saying.

Was last night and the night before the Bucks' LA Raider games?

2008-12-21T11:09:00.002-06:00

This is an analytical blog that normally bases its analysis upon hard evidence. This time I'm basing it strictly upon intution or what sports analysts refer to as "a feeling I got".

This may mean absolutely SQUADUSH (is that a word?) but, in the last two nights, I got the same exact feeling about the Milwaukee Bucks that I got way, way back in the day, almost exactly 16 Decembers ago -- set ur mental flux capacitors to Sunday, December 26, 1993 -- when Mike Holmgren's second edition of the Green Bay Packers took on the Los Angeles Raiders.

Going into that cold Sunday game, both teams had decent records -- the Packers were 8-6, the Raiders were 9-5. So the Packers were a decent team at that point... there's no question about it.

But, have you ever read the book Blink? If you have, you know that our brains cannot process all the information...

Ok, I gotta go shovel... here's the point... that game the Pack beat down the Raiders in a manner that transformed my entire image of the team.

The

2008-12-21T10:39:00.000-06:00

Mine eyes have seen the Skiles: Sabermetric Boxscore for Bucks vs.Clippers

2008-12-21T02:07:00.011-06:00

For the loyal readers of this little blog... think back just six short months... did you think the last two nights were possible? I mean FORGET the opponents? Did you think those kind of defensive efforts were possible from these Milwaukee Bucks? Last night the Clippers Team Win Score was 15.0! That's amazing defense... A miracle has happened... Moses has chased the Pharoah out of Egypt... the 16 year plague has lifted... What else can I say for what Scott Skiles has done? He's finally gotten the Milwaukee Bucks to commit to defense... and, as my historical analysis showed, its the surest way to a world's championship (that's why I no longer like the Lakers at all -- and why I think the Cavs look ready to win it).

Click Here for my Sabermetric Boxscore: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Clippers

Stars of the Game

1. Luke Ridnour
2. Luc Moute
3. Richard Jefferson

Notes on the Game

1. Moute is up there again. Damn, that is great to see... You notice, he plays well, the Milwaukee Bucks play well. I'll admit it to you readers, I thought the Force had left Luc, I thought either he had hit a rookie wall or the Association had figured out how to play him at the 4. Because he had, like a 2 week span of bad games... hang on, i'm going to figure out his season MWS and TWC... his Marginal Win Score currently stands at +0.9... now that's taken a beating over the past couple of weeks, but its pretty damn good for a rookie... his TWC is down as well but its still pretty outstanding for a first year, second round pick... it currently stands at +0.099... that translates into a TWC above replacement level of +0.261 (remember, he's playing 79% of his time at the second most valuable spot... power forward, so that's elevated his value considerably). That makes his Championship Percentage a lofty 9.4%. Not shabby at all for a second round pick. Not shabby at all.

2. Bogut had another sort of bad game... I'll cut him a break though, Camby is big time.

3. I hate giving positive TWC to guys like Charlie Bell who only get them because the players opposite them stink. But those are the rules... your duty is to outproduce your counterpart opponent... by any means necessary... you do that, you improve the team's win probability.

4. I can't believe how badly Luke Ridnour DESTROYED the so-called great Baron Davis. What has happened to him? He looked disinterested! I bet he's thinking about whatever movie he's gonna produce or whatever. Way to go Luke.

5. Brilliant basketball game from Richard Jefferson. Brilliant.

6. When will we see something like that from Redd. He's having a crappy season, backing up what was a CRAPPY season last year. When's he gonna start playing like a max dollar player. The reason I'm harpin on this you guys is because we've got the defense in place... all we need are those one or two efficent offensive engines to drive us to some wins, and we paid for a Ferrari engine and Redd's kind of giving us a Ford Focus... you know, it runs, but its nothing special... meanwhile RJ is like a Saab... it goes great and then it doesn't go... no wait, if he was a Saab he'd be on the injured reserve a lot, so that doesn't work....hmmmm.... anyway, the point of that mumbo jumbo is were not gettin what we paid for.

7. All in all a great two nights for the Bucks... I really don't care who the opponents were... they were NBA teams, one on the road and one at home and both of them received Sleeperholds of each of thier games from a Bucks team who six months ago couldn't apply a sleeper hold to a baby. Awesome thing to see.

Put your ears to the ground, boys... I hear a stampede a comin'... the Milwaukee Bucks are on their way back!!

Can Skiles fix the economy?

2008-12-21T00:21:00.001-06:00

What Scott Skiles has done to fix the Bucks 16 year defensive drought is nothing short of miraculous. There has been no significant defensive addiition to the roster (RJ was never known as a stopper -- okay LOSING Mo Williams WAS a huge help, butttt.....).

The point is, I just

What Skiles has done

2008-12-21T00:14:00.001-06:00

Wow.... wow. On back to back nights, the Bucks just curbed two opponents in a row on two consecutive nights. Not with wild three pointers... with suffocating defense.

I'm just speechless. The difference is stunning. Even the people that used to see me wearing Bucks gear and gripe "Ohhhh, the Bucks... they never play annnyyy deeefennse" don't say that anymore.

Its all because of Skiles. He's somehow done it

Compare and contrast where they're at: The Lakers and the Cavs

2008-12-20T23:37:00.002-06:00

I'm not picking on the Lakers, I like them, they're obviously loaded... but they're making me look ridiculous at the moment, and I can't be made to look ridiculous.

At the beginning of the year, I thought they had learned from last season's playoffs that Showtime Lakerball, meaning, high octane offense and just average defense, won't get it done. They were playing lockdown defense to begin the season. Ten games in I said "Shut her down" its the Lakers year. Then they went back to Laker ball.

Now it looks like the Cavs year (or the Celts... the Celts HAVE the D... its just that the Cavs have the D and the O).

The last two nights provide a nice case study. The Cavs and the Lakers go on the road against similarly situated tough teams in the opposite conference across the country. Lets see how they responded.

The Cavaliers faced the very tough Denver Nuggets at their very difficult home court site. What the Cavaliers did... and I watched it... was frightening. They basically cut Denver's chest open, ripped their heart out while it was beating, and ate it... the defeat was that complete.

More importantly, Cleveland's defense ruled. Their Defensive Win Score was a playoff ready 18.9... this is against a Denver team whose Home Offensive Win Score is near 50.0. IMPRESSIVE.

Now the Lakers. They go on the road against an equally tough Orlando. They play them hard but they lose. Why did they lose? Defense.

Their defense wasn't horrible, but it wasn't championship level. Their Defensive Win Score was 44.9. That's slightly below average. Again, not horrible, and they'll win a TON of games with that and their WAY above average Offensive Win Score, but they won't win a golden ball with Defensive Win Score teams like Cleveland and Boston out there. It just won't happen.

See, what happens in the playoffs, and I charted this last season, and I went back over a few other NBA Finals and found the same phenomenon. Team Win Scores collapse.

You would logically think, "Hey thse are the best teams, the Win Scores are going to go up". Its not the case.

The Win Score average for a season is usually in the 40s... NBA Finals games are normally played in the 30s... sometimes in the 20s. You know what I think the reason is? No easy baskets. There are no layups allowed... and most of the game is played in the half court setting. But that's just a hunch.

Anyway, my message to LakerNation is this: tell Philipo he needs to grow back that beard and get the Lakers playing defense again. They've obviously shown they are capable of doing so... they need to begin to make it a habit if they are going to make a championship run.

Change you CAN believe in

2008-12-20T21:57:00.008-06:00

I cannot tell you how much respect I have Scott Skiles and what he has accomplished in one month. Scott Skiles is a miracle worker. Everything about the man screams "Leader".

And he's got the Milwaukee Bucks playing devastating defense.

Six months ago... did any of you think it was POSSIBLE I could have wrote those words without being sarcastic?? What a job Skiles has done! In fact, he may be the best basketball coach in the business... here's why...

Professor Berri is going to argue -- and backup with evidentiary research -- in his upcoming book, I believe, that basketball coaches don't matter much. BUT, I think he's going to take the position that they don't matter because they cannot improve PLAYER PRODUCTION much. Okay, lets accept that.

Let's say his argument is right (and I'm on thin ice here since I haven't read the book because it hasn't even been released) if it is, then could it n. How can you do better than Coach Skiles has done with your Milwaukee Bucks?

Anyway, chew on that for a while and I'll have the TWC boxscore shortly...

HOW BOUT THEM BUCKS??!!!!!!

The Bucks may be closer than we think

2008-12-20T21:26:00.001-06:00

Normally on this blog, I like to use statistical analysis. This time I'm going to use pure intution. Here it is

Lets review the Bucks last season and this season.

Last season the Bucks basically struggled against everyone.

What do we see this season? '

This season, the Bucks compete for a while at home with the upper echelon of the NBA (Boston, Phoenix). They

The Magnificence!!... And thank you Pressey25!... 25!! Aaahhh look at the picture dumb dumb author!

2008-12-20T20:32:00.006-06:00

We suffered for soooooo long in Milwaukee with teams that could not or would not or just refused to play defense. It was so painful to watch. It was so utterly painful to watch.

Now, this season, with no significant upgrade in talent... remember, coming into this season Richard Jefferson's career numbers were projecting sharply downward... with all that, the Milwaukee Bucks... OUR Milwaukee Bucks... the Boys in Green and Red... the Boys who couldn't bust the top 16 in defense for an entire generation....

Well, they are a frickin defensive machine... and they are just CRUSHING inferior teams with almost no offense and it is beautiful to watch because its proving my PROVING my theory on Defensive Win Score... they're OFFENSE IS WORSE THAN IT WAS LAST SEASON... and yet they are much improved, so much improved...

And a frequent and astute commenter by the name of "Pressey23" deserves a half credit for inspiring the notion of Defensive Win Score he unknowingly made the key inspirational critical comment (you can be a friend of this blog and rip the shit out of me you know... that's how knowledge is gained). I once wrote that Mo Williams was "a key component" because he had a positive Win Contribution, which was true... he did have a positive offensive Win Contribution.

Well, a day later, Pressey batted in the Comment section something like "Mo Williams a key component?? No way... I can't sit through another season with a point guard who plays NO DEFENSE"... He convinced me and started me thinking... defense HAS TO MATTER... It turned out that if you compared the Win Score production of the point guards of Milwaukee Bucks opponents who were on the floor at the time Mo Williams was on the floor, Mo Williams production suddenly became negative... so the NBA AVERAGE WAS FUNCTIONALLY IRRELEVANT... THE RELEVANT AVERAGE WAS THE ONE CREATED ON THE HARDWOOD IN THE GAME... Bingo...That led to the whole idea of "Counterpart Opponent"/Defensive Win Score, which led to the idea of Marginal Win Score, which led to TOTAL Win Contribution... which is now basically the raison d'être of this here blog.., so thank you Mr. Pressey, and keep it up in the second half Bucks!

And Skiles rules!!! And I'll have a TWC by at least tomorrow morning if not tonight.

And I'm moving to MVN Monday morning. I'm just too busy this weekend.

Shine a Light on Lue: Enhanced TWC boxscore from the Bucks crushing of the Knicks

2008-12-20T16:42:00.004-06:00

This may be my last posting on blogspot. I have to check my email and see how the procedure works to switch over to MVN, but that's definitely imminent.

I wish you buds could see me. I've been shoveling all day and trying to get this stupid ENHANCED Milwaukee Bucks TWC boxscore done, because it was such a huge and crushing win. Anyway, I look like frickin Charlie Villanueva. I'm wearing tearaways. A Milwaukee Bucks hunter green old school jersey... obviously... and a Green Bay Packers cold weather headband that I haven't taken off with those kind of heavy army socks... because I've been between the computer and the fricking snow all day.

Click Here to See my TWC Boxscore with below average positional performances in italic red

Timeout for a Rant (Skip below for my Notes on the Game)

Anyway, I wanted to do this thing because the GD Milwaukee Journal has the whole narrative wrong AGAIN. They credit stupid REDD because .... GEE he scored alot of points.

People if you lose me and dont follow me over to MVN, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE (I sound like this guy) remember this... VOLUME SCORING ALONE IS MEANINGLESS IN BASKETBALL!!!!!!!!!!! If anything it can tend to kill a team... the important thing is possessions.... Its like Robin Yount taking as many at bats as he wants for the Brewers and then the Journal reporting that the Brewers won because he got four hits....HOW MANY AT BATS DID HE USE UP???

Ok, enough ranting... by the way those analogies are all stolen from the Wages of Wins, so read it for more insight....

Notes on the Game

1. Tyronn Lue has secretly resurrected himself people. He's close to having a positive Win Contribution for the season, and his play is above Replacement Level, which is what you want from your bench players. Think about your low level players as a basement floor. The higher the basement floor, the higher the structure. Good going Lue.

2. Croshere is also playing at an above Replacement level. Can he be physical enough to be our permanent replacement center? That is my question. His athletic ability is clearly gone, he can no longer man the 3 or 4.

3 My man Moute, the Winter Prince of Milwaukee as one of my loyal commenter so aptly and keenly dubbed him, has clearly gotten his second wind. He has played some beautiful games this weekend.

4. Michael Redd will give you points per minute... lately that is the only thing he and RJ are delivering above average. They are playing decent defense, to their credit... but I also think they are benefiting from going against gunslingers. Both RJ and Michael must do more to earn their money. Particularly Michael. He must make a concerted effort to get the team more possessions. At the moment he is averaging around 1.7 possessions gained per 48. That will never get it done. Early in his career, as I have pointed out many times, he was much better at that, and he can be. Quit romancing that 3 point line. Durant has revitalized himself, Redd can too.

5. I can't say enough good about Andrew Bogut... remember when I said we should shop him last year... that dude who wrote I was crazy... you have earned the right to do this to me

6. To paraphrase Bobby Kennedy, "Now its on to Milwaukee, and Lets Win There!"... Tonight is a must. Cannot lose to the Clippers at home. Cannot do it people. They're last in my Power Rankings, if I was keeping them up.

Knicks forgot what Willis Reed taught... defense usually trumps offense

2008-12-20T13:34:00.008-06:00

I don't know about that "European, little man, fire it up, offense first, defense-be-damned" system Coach D'Antoni has brought to the Big Apple. It will win him games in the regular season, there's no question about that. But, ultimately, it will not win him championships. Defense wins championships... not offense.

The irony is, KnicksFan should know that better than anyone... the Knickerbockers used two AWESOME AWESOME Defensive "or Opponent" Win Score teams to dismantle two superior Lakers Offensive Win Score teams and win their two famous Worlds Championships back in the early 70s (one of them was the celebrated "Willis Reed Championship", the other one I call the "Crooklyn" Championship because it was celebrated in Spike Lee's movie.)

Of course, D'Antoni is really not working with superior personnel at the moment, and the Bucks just took them apart root and branch last night, so this unit is not a good test of my theory. Anyway, tremendous win for the Green and Red last night, and I will have a TWC boxscore shortly. (I'm going back to "Green and Red"... they're insisting on wearing those Red jerseys so I have to go with the flow) BTW, REDD DID NOT WIN THE GAME LAST NIGHT AS JSOLINE IS INSISTING... anyone who reads this blog and is therefore "enlightened" will know Redd had a slightly above average game but that the heroes were CLEARLY MOUTE and BOGUT. Get ready for my TWC Boxscore.

www.blogger.com

2008-12-19T22:19:00.001-06:00

Here it is... Big O '74 road jersey

2008-12-19T19:43:00.003-06:00

I keep referencing my Big O '74 road jersey... here's Oscar wearing it... mine's just a replica and its in tatters... but I keep wearing it cause its my favorite Bucks road jersey and I wish they would bring it back... I guess this year's team favors the Badger red... they've worn those things about three games in a row now... I think superstition is playin a part in that though... alright time for the second half... Go Milwaukee Bucks!!

Defensive Brilliance!... Keep it up Bucks

2008-12-19T19:35:00.003-06:00

I've got my Oscar Robertson 1974 Hunter Green Road Jersey on right now, cause I'm not going anywhere with the snow coming down. That first half was awesome, though. They held the highpowered New York Knickerbocker offense to just 37 points! Think about that... this is a defense that could not stop squat last season and they hold one of the best offenses in the NBA to 37 points in a half at home!

Skiles is brilliant...

I'm opening another Pabst Blue Ribbon and I will have a TWC Boxscore at the end of the game...

Remember I'm moving to MVN this weekend... GO BUCKS!!!!!!

Utilizing my sabermetric chart

2008-12-19T19:04:00.003-06:00

When you are looking at my offensive sabermetric chart, you can also use it as a means of determining who is suited to play what position. For instance... Ramon Sessions is above average in every category when you consider him as a point guard, yet he is below average in some of the areas if you consider him as a shooting guard.

And indeed, Skiles has deployed Sessions as a shooting guard 32% of the time, and it has hurt his Win Contribution. Sessions Win Contribution is +2.9 as a point guard and only +.6 as a shooting guard. Deployment matters.

Enjoy the Bucks versus the Knickerbockers. My Bill James Log 5 Calculations say the Bucks have a 44% chance of taking tnis game at the Garden. So go Bucks!

If your going to a tavey to watch this game remember to drink only Milwaukee or Milwaukee heritage beers!! And careful of the snow!! Drive safely!! Ever reader counts!!

And remember I'm moving over to MVN!!! The basketball revolution lives on!!