Renthusiast.info

Forecast not looking good for 2010

2009-11-20T14:12:00.004Z

Most leading economists and agents predict more gloom for UK property next year with Seema Shah, of Capital Economics suggesting prices not returning to '07 levels until at least 2019: “the market is still overvalued, whichever measure you use, prices need to fall a further 20 percent to 25 percent to get back their long-term trend.”

[via Bloomberg]

Climate change and property prices

2009-11-16T10:10:00.012Z

The UN climate change conference in Copenhagen is generating a lot of enthusiasm. One aspect that seems to be currently missing from the debates is the impact of climate change on property valuations. This is something all too familiar in London, with the recent controversy surrounding the proposed third runway at Heathrow.
Environmentalist David Pearce authored "Blueprint for a green economy" on behalf of the UK government in 1989. In the report, Mr Pearce argued that it is well known that differences in property values arise from many sources, including "the amount and quality of accommodation available , the accessibility of the central business district, the level and quality of local public facilities, the level of taxes that have to be paid on the property and the environmental characteristics of the neighborhood, as measured by the levels of air pollution, traffic and aircraft noise, and access to parks and water facilities."
Perace believes that these "variables on interest" on property values are indeed "very closely correlated, for example, accessibility to the town centre is often closely related to some measures of air pollution , and one measure of air pollution, such as total suspended particulate matter, is very closely correlated to other measures such as sulfur dioxide. To overcome this, many studies use only one 'representative ' measure of pollution."

Perace's research appears to confirm some of the legitimate concerns of lobby group "Notrag" (No Third Runway Action Group), who write that BAA has sent letters to all residents in the village of Sipson to say that they are willing to buy all affected properties in an attempt to support their planning application to build the runway. Naturally, this will be contested by some residents and environmental activists, however the news that BAA is willing to buy the properties offered "relief to some residents who have tried unsuccessfully to move" and addresses the "problem of residents who are unable to sell their homes due to the third runway threat" according to Notrag.

London mayor Boris Johnson, has also been vehemently opposed to the third runway, clashing with some members within his own political party over the issue. Johnson vents opposition to the runway by stating that the loss of hundreds of houses in "the ancient village of Sipson," and the increase in road traffic and number of flights from 470,000 to 700,000 a year will make London a much less desirable place to live:

I am writing this at 11.20pm on Sunday night in Highbury, north London, which is not normally thought of as being under the flightpath, and I promise I have just heard a flight go over. It was audible, though the windows vibrated only mildly. What will it be like when that plane starts to descend over west London and the wind starts howling through the wheels? And what will north London be like if they are ever so mad as to build a third runway? The map indicates that Harrow, Camden, Islington, Enfield will all be on the itinerary for planes using the new runway – in other words, that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Londoners stand to be affected in a way that the builders of Heathrow never imagined, while the auditory sufferings of west London will be intensified. I am a capitalist, a free-marketer, a believer in air travel, but I simply cannot believe that the endless expansion of Heathrow is the right thing for London or for Britain. Why are we the only major country to direct aviation traffic straight over our principal conurbation?

Boris called in the architect of the Hong Kong airport to draw up a feasibility assessment for "Boris Island", an island airport concept in the Thames estuary, which is also receiving opposition from environmentalists, although at present, not nearly as intense as that which is coming from Heathrow.

proposed Boris Island

London's current airports

Hong Kong airport

protests at Heathrow

Cayman Island fraud investigation

2009-11-12T10:47:00.003Z

Following complaints received about the investment activities of Dynamic Decisions Capital Management Ltd, the Serious Fraud Office has opened an investigation and wants to hear from anyone with information that might help with enquiries. The SFO opened the criminal investigation following a formal referral of the matter by the Financial Services Authority.
Complaints had been received by the SFO and the Financial Services Authority about Dynamic
Decisions Capital Management Ltd, in connection with a hedge fund operated in the Cayman Islands known as Dynamic Decisions Growth Premium Master Fund Ltd. The SFO would like to hear from persons who believe they have any information that might help the SFO with its enquiries.
The number to call is 0207 239 7388.

New report into online advertising

2009-11-11T17:15:00.002Z

Guest post: Jonathan Bowers
Communications Director
UKFast.net Ltd

New figures from the Internet Advertising Bureau show that online ad spend has overtaken TV in the UK. Britain is the first mature market in which this significant change has happened and it shows that companies here appreciate that web advertising is now the best route to market.
In the, first six months of 2009, 23.5% of all ad spend in the UK was taken by online forms compared with just 21.9% for TV.
In this the UK is ahead of the curve. To date, the world's other major markets have not matched the UK's milestone. In the US, online ads make up 15.4% of the total market and still trail TV. Asia-Pacific has even more ground to make up with a percentage only just in double digits while TV commands over 30%. Globally, the web advertising figure stands at 13.2%.

Redrawing the balance

In difficult economic times, online advertising forms are the only growth sectors. The graph below shows that all offline forms of advertising are decreasing while 'Internet' and 'Internet Search (PPC)' are the two areas witnessing an increase.

source: IPA Bellwether

Marketing departments have come to appreciate that online advertising is more engaging and versatile, which translates to a better return on investment.
It is more attractive than traditional advertising channels because it is more accessible. TV remains the domain of firms with large budgets and the small players simply cannot afford to compete in this advertising arena.
Online is a different proposition, however. Basic costs are lower and with sophisticated targeting, budgets can be focused. Furthermore, pay per click, an 'Internet only' advertising form, offers advertisers the benefit of only incurring cost when people click on their ads.
"Crucially, this allows small and medium size businesses to compete with their bigger rivals," states Lawrence Jones, MD of UKFast. "This is exactly the experience of UKFast. We have enjoyed tremendous growth at the expense of larger competitors, despite having a much more modest advertising budget."

Getting the balance right

So the statistics show that advertisers are increasingly looking to the Internet, but that means competition is growing when overall budgets are actually shrinking.
Research from the Advertising Association reveals that online ad spend increased by a huge 19.1 per cent in 2008, maintaining a dramatic increase since 2003.
However the data depicted below from Zenith Optimedia shows that even online spend is predicted to dip over the next couple of years as the effects of the recession continue to play a part.

All businesses wish they could spend less on PPC and still maintain their rankings. UKFast believes that speed is the key to reducing PPC costs.
To retain user numbers, search engines want to deliver an excellent service. Users say they want speed, so the search engines give fast loading websites preferential rankings.
This therefore means that high rankings can be achieved through a modest investment in speed instead of a heavy investment in PPC.
Online travel business Let's Stay UK is a good example of the effect speed has. The business does not engage in 'pay per click' campaigns and yet it regularly features in the top three of search returns on its key terms. This includes consistently beating much bigger rivals such as Haven and Butlins.
However, according to Google research into user habits, traditional organic results only capture 40% of users. 20% are taken by organic forms that use other Google media, such as shopping and news links, while the remaining 40% are focused on the Pay Per Click (PPC) results. So to get a rounded search engine campaign involves ranking highly in multiple organic and PPC sections.
Consider the diagram below. The red section is the traditional organic returns and it commands 40% of users' attention. The yellow section contains, in this example, Google shopping links and draws 20%. The orange section is the top paid results and it gains 26% of users, while the green section is the remainder of the paid links and that only draws 14%.

The importance of the yellow section is worth noting. While it is made up of free organic links like the red section, it is a separate section in terms of the algorithm that generates it. What this means for companies trying to achieve high organic rankings is that they must meet the requirements of both algorithms.
Meanwhile, to rank highly in the paid areas it is clearly vital to get into the orange section. Here three links share 26% of the clicks, as opposed to the right column sponsored links, which share 14% between 7 results.
Speed also helps to deliver higher PPC rankings because of Google's desire to provide an excellent user experience across the board. The time it takes for the user to load your webpage is assessed and added to the 'Quality Score' that determines the cost of the PPC. This allows Google to reward websites that look to deliver a better service.
This means that speed can reduce your PPC costs in relation to your competitors. You can rank more highly than they do and pay less for the privilege!
"The most effective advertising today is online," adds Jones. "But with budgets limited and competition tough online businesses need other cost-effective ways to achieve prominence in the search rankings. Speed is one answer. Fast hosting delivers higher rankings in both organic and paid search. It can be the factor that makes an online business take-off."

Mouseprice iphone app now live

2009-11-06T12:50:00.010Z

Apple has now approved The mouseprice app we spoke about a few weeks ago; the app is now live and has been officially released this morning.
Designed to make searching for valuation comparables and property price data on the go, the mouseprice app is very different to the Rightmove app, or Propertynearme which is used mainly to check property sale and rental prices; however to date, there is no UK or European service to offer mobile valuation estimates, similar to the much praised Zillow app in the US.
However the Mouseprice app does come at a price, and as applications go, it's not exactly cheap. Comparables data will coast you a one off £2.99, as mouseprice is wisely aiming this tool at the people who will probably use it most; i.e. estate agents, surveyors and investors, who can "use the app to check comparables and valuation estimates on the way to a viewing" according to the press release.
Once paid for all searches are free with no limits to the amount of searches that can be performed, and the app is relatively simple and straighforward to use as this short video demonstrates:

Below are exclusive screenshots:

Aonther new iphone application

2009-10-30T14:22:00.004Z

But this one is different in that it's web based, meaning you don't have to download an app for your phone, simply point your iphone browser to this URL. It's a throw back for old school iphone users who can remember the days before Apple launched the app store (just over a year ago, yet seems like a lifetime). PropertyNearMe uses the 'geo location' functionality of the iPhone to download properties for sale or rent in the immediate vicinity and features aggregated property data supplied by Nestoria. Countries covered include the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain. The developers promise a version for Android phones soon as well as a downloadable app version with more features to follow.

The economics of George Osborne

2009-10-28T13:19:00.002Z

Guest Post
Douglas McWilliams chief executive
centre for economics and business research

With Conservative policy becoming clearer and the state of the UK economy gradually becoming less uncertain, it is now possible to make an assessment of their economic consequences. Our latest UK forecasts, to be released later this week, are based on our normal convention that we take the spread betters’ conclusions for the results of uncertain political developments. In this case we therefore assume a Conservative victory in a May election with a working majority. In effect, we see monetary policy being moved into ‘fast forward’while the fiscal policy levers are put into ‘fast reverse’.
We assume £80 billion of public spending cuts, £20 billion of indirect tax increases and a ‘get back to work package with a gross cost of £3 billion. The good news for the Tories is that it looks as though the policies should work; the Budget deficit is reduced to 2.5% of GDP before the end of the parliamentary term, the economy does not go back into recession, while unemployment stays high and rises slightly –but starts to fall back in 2013.
The policies depend for their success on keeping monetary policy very loose –a combination of quantitative easing and base rates at 0.5% until mid 2011 at least and a fall in the 10 year bond yield to 2.5% in two years. This leads to a continued weak exchange rate –the pound falls to $1.40 and could temporarily reach parity with the euro unless the markets become aware at anearly stage of the euro’s structural weaknesses.
Low interest rates and a competitive pound eventually revive net exports –particularly constraining imports of manufactured goods –and business investment, especially in commercial property. GDP growth from 2010‐2014 averages just short of 1.5% ‐not high but not obviously much lower than under any other strategy. Following emergence from the recession in the second half of 2009, growth comes back in 2010 but falls back again in 2011‐12 as fiscal retrenchment takes its course. Through 2013‐14 growth reaches and surpasses the 2.0% mark for the first timesince 2007.
Of course there are risks. The biggest risk is that external factors and a weak pound may mean that underlying inflation is too high for interest rates to be kept low. This is why the Tories’ labour market strategy is so important –the ‘back to work’ policy may cost money (we suspect rather more than the £600 million quoted in the press) but is essential to limit the rise in unemployment and to keep downward pressure on pay inflation, business costs and hence the Consumer Price Index.
But the Conservatives could justifiably argue that the risks of the alternative strategy are much greater –a risk of financial markets being unwilling to finance a debt burden and a major economic crisis. We think George Osborne’s sums add up –but he is reliant on the problems of the world economy easing, on growth outside the UK and on maintaining market confidence.
and are only made available to bone fide employees of organisations with a current and fully paid‐up membership of the prospects.

Media reports boosting property market

2009-10-26T15:13:00.002Z

Investor confidence in the UK and overseas property market appears to be rising according to statistical research from the Property Investor Show, with 43% of investors reporting a increase in confidence in the last three months and 32 per cent attributing this change to positive media reports about the property market. Financing purchases remains an ongoing issue with 80 percent of investors still unable to secure bank loans to fund investment. However 32 percent of respondents claim to have enough cash or equity to cover the current LTV ratio requirements.
Property Investor managing director Nick Clark claims there is a "strong shift" in the UK with investors now re-exploring opportunities overseas with potential greater returns than the other "poor performing investment vehicles such as bank savings and the stock market."
The Property Investor Show took place this past weekend at London's Excel center attracting over 10,000 visitors and 160 exhibitors.

Lettingsearch jumps on Tory bandwagon

2009-10-22T13:34:00.006+01:00

Alongside The Honourable Miss Allsopp, and Ahipp, Lettingsearch.co.uk also seems to be jumping on the Tory political march to number 10 with great enthusiasm.
The proposed scheme to allow Housing Allowance tenants to choose to have their allowance paid direct to landlords instead of to themselves would give landlords greater confidence that rents would be paid as well as giving a "huge boost to the private sector lettings market as we seek to come out of the downturn," according to Lettingsearch director Phil Calderbank. However Calderbank is tempering his enthusiasm by warning the Tories not just to "pay lip service to what they know will be a popular vote winner come election day."

Mouseprice to launch iphone app

2009-10-22T12:47:00.005+01:00

Mouseprice.com; a top ten UK property portal will soon be releasing an iPhone application, designed to help users get a better feel for valuations on the go.
Mouseprice claims it will be "the first of its kind to emerge in the UK," with other portals such as Rightmove having apps for checking property sales, the purpose of the Mouseprice app will be to enable users to check sales history and get current valuation estimates, similar to how the popular Zillow app works in the states.
Mouseprice is expecting Apple to the release the application in a few weeks, we should have screenshots before official release.

Nestoria looking for 'the one' ...

2009-10-14T18:17:00.005+01:00

in an apparent attempt to save Australia from the matrix; but only if you have more than 500 friends on Facebook and twitter, and are compulsive about checking Google and bit.ly Analytics to see how many people are tracking your every online move.

AHIPP pledges Tory support

2009-10-05T09:19:00.006+01:00

In a recent green paper, Conservative Shadow Housing Minister MP Grant Shapps, lays out a plan for to "scrap the discredited Home Information Packs (HIPs) ... to genuinely help people improve the environmental standing of their property"; if or rather when they are next elected.
Mike Ockenden, Chairman of the Association of Home Information Pack Providers (AHIPP) believes that when elected, the new Tory government would provide "a great opportunity to create a genuinely sustainable alternative to HIPs that will not require the complete unraveling of the existing legislation and industry infrastructure". Ockenden feels the British public deserve "a faster and more efficient house-buying process" than what they're currently receiving and pledges to work closely with the conservatives to achieve this goal.
In a survey published this morning, AHIPP claim consumers are actually "satisfied with the delivery of their HIP", with 85% of respondents saying the need to obtain a HIP did not influence their decision about whether or not to sell their home.

Look4aProperty (just don't look too hard)

2009-10-01T11:37:00.008+01:00

Look4aproperty.com, the service backed by James Caan of Dragons Den is offering a "£1 billion initiative ... to thousands of people allowing them to move up or down the property ladder. Everyone is now entitled to an interest free loan to pay for stamp duty and legal fees.”
Responding to Property Owl's very reasonable request for terms and conditions or a more detailed explanation of how the service works, someone supposedly from look4aproperty.com in an anonymous blog comment claims that there is "no ulterior motive here and I'm not sure what Terms and Conditions you're looking for".

We cannot supply you with these terms and conditions for legal reasons but we will be publishing more details about the product shortly. We're just trying to deal with the influx of enquiries we're currently receiving. I would repeat that if any estate agent has any questions about the product they should contact us and we will answer any questions they may have.
[anonymous blog commenter on behalf of look4aproperty]

Further examination suggests that Look4aProperty has "partnered" with Hitachi Capital to offer the product, even though Hitachi Capital's operating profit is less than £1 million and they are only authorized by the FSA to offer "insurance mediation activities" according to their website and they are legally "unable to hold client money" according to the FSA.
So where's the £1 billion going to come from for Look4aproperty? It's obviously not coming from Hitachi Capital, they simply don't have it and even if they did, they're not legally authorized to lend! Property Owl thinks that that this is simply just a marketing exercise, a not so clever gimmick to try to get agents to pay money to sign up to Look4aproperty, suggesting to consumers that if their estate agent is "unwilling to arrange the interest free loan then we recommend that you buy through an estate agent that will," and that there is already a "30% proven increase in local market share as a result of offering the Look4AProperty Money Product" even though the service hasn't even been rolled out yet!
~~look4aproperty? right now you more looklikeafool to me!~~

Peter Schiff runs for Senate

2009-09-30T08:24:00.005+01:00

Dear Euro Pacific Client,

As many of you know, I recently announced my 2010 candidacy for the United States Senate in my home state of Connecticut. While I realize that as Americans most of you support my decision, as clients many of you may have some concerns about how my political involvement may impact the stewardship of your accounts.
Though I will be devoting a considerable amount of my time to this crucial campaign, I will remain president of Euro Pacific Capital, and I will continue to oversee the firm, its brokers, and all of your accounts. Of course, I have a lot of help. Five years ago, there were fewer than ten people working at Euro Pacific; now, there are more than 100. As a consequence, other officers at the firm have long since assumed duties that used to be solely mine. My role is to direct our global investment strategy and assure that the firm maintains the highest standard of service. That will not change.
Much of the time that I will devote to campaigning will be at the expense of time I currently spend on media appearances, public speaking, writing, travel, and leisure. Though I will still be doing media appearances and public speaking, it will mainly be as a Senate candidate rather than a stockbroker. While this shift in focus may slow the growth of my business, it should not diminish the quality of service to existing and future clients.
Only if I actually win the election (in November 2010) will I have to take a leave of absence from Euro Pacific. If that were to happen, I have formulated a succession plan involving my most experienced managers. Of course, I realize that victory is by no means a sure thing, but nevertheless we are prepared.
If you have any concerns about how your account may be impacted by my future plans, please contact your account representative.

Sincerely,

Peter Schiff
President and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital

Mr. Schiff is one of the few investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, commodities, gold and the dollar, he has been quoted in many of the nations leading newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Dallas Morning News, The Miami Herald, The San Francisco Chronicle, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Arizona Republic, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and the Christian Science Monitor, and has appeared on CNBC, CNNfn, Bloomberg and the Orange County Register.
Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkley in 1987. A financial professional for seventeen years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, he is a highly recommended broker by many of the nation's financial newsletters and advisory services.
Copyright © 2005-2009 Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
reprinted with permission

Wow Property now bust

2009-09-29T15:53:00.008+01:00

Wow Property, the online agent set up in 2007; has quietly gone bust, although listings seem to be still appearing on Globrix and Zoopla. There is also a listing for Nick Wright, the company principle at the RICS website. The URL wow-property.com is dead; however wowproperty.co.uk now points to The Shared Ownership Company, with claims to work with Housing Associations and HomeBuy agencies to sell more homes.
Last year, I tried search for London property on Wow and got less than 0.0001% of all available listings for sale. At that time, online agent Brightsale predicted "the death of the traditional estate agent by 2013", but I begged to differ, seems like I was right, we may yet have a few more years before that happens. Rat & Mouse has appealed to wow property to "put the record straight"; but so far no one's responded.

What's the future for commercial property?

2009-09-24T17:17:00.009+01:00

This past summer Reuters real estate hosted a workshop discussing 'Real Estate Investment Management 2020 and Beyond' in collaboration with Outsights, a London-based "future thinking" consultancy.
20 real estate executives and representatives of academia explored long-term trends affecting the underlying demand for real estate and implications for the global commercial real estate investment markets and businesses, with some interesting results, including:

Along with BRIC nations also look for "further power" from the "PLAIN" countries (Pakistan, Libya, Afghanistan, Iran and Nigeria)
Chartered surveying as a profession is doomed.
There will be an inevitable split between 'property as a financial asset' and 'property as a built structure'.
It is a patent nonsense for anyone to be expected to know everything from dry rot to swaptions.

[click photo for better image]

Scenarios also suggested various professions disappearing under threat of new technology, including agents, investment managers, lawyers and accountants; with the chartered surveyor "not surviving" according to the experts.
Participants included Nick Axford, Executive Director at CB Richard Ellis; Andrew Baum, Professor at the University of Reading; Timothy Bellman of ING Real Estate; and Stephen Brown of the RICS

Reim 2020 Report

View more documents from renthusiast.

New search portal for London property

2009-09-15T17:14:00.005+01:00

I grew up in the Caribbean where there's a popular saying: "when one gone, another one born"; today as we witness the death of dothomes, we also witness the birth of HouseShout, a website designed for those looking to "buy, sell, rent, let and share properties without the use of an agent".

Currently HouseShout has partnered with Fish 4, ~~Nestoria~~, [see Ed's comment] Enormo and ~~Trovit~~ [see David's comment] and are also in negotiations with a "major aggregation portal"; combined partnership traffic is "over 2.4 million" according to HouseShout CEO Greg Castle.
Castle also feels the timing of his service “couldn’t be better" with consumers "scrutinising spend like never before" which include agency fees, described by Castle as "outdated, unnecessary and expensive."
“We have created a site which enables you to advertise your property in a highly professional manner which rivals that of our estate agent competitors;” so does that mean you're an online agent? Not according to Castle, who lists the service as a "property advertiser" claiming HouseShout does not interfere with existing agency contracts, suggesting consumers are free to "simultaneously use an agent and a service like ours to see if they can get the sale or rental done quicker and avoid the fee. And many are finding they can”
Find out more, visit them at houseshout.co.uk or
or learn more about their service by watching this video

estatecreate wins design award

2009-09-15T14:56:00.003+01:00

The Web Marketing Association has named estatecreate winner of their 2009 Outstanding Website Real Estate Category. Henry Yates, estatecreate ceo, claims to be in "good company" as Zillow.com won the award last year. estatecreate offers users the ability to showcase homes for sale with standalone websites for the property, complete with its own domain, "the 21st century glossy brochure" as they put it. Here's an example

Another one bites the dust

2009-09-15T14:53:00.001+01:00

mmm, wonder if Zoopla's interested?

Knight Frank release on profit plunge

2009-09-14T17:55:00.005+01:00

Guest post: Nick Thomlinson,
senior partner and chairman,
Knight Frank

London, UK – Knight Frank LLP (“Knight Frank”), the leading independent global residential and commercial property consultancy, today announced its final results for the year ended 30 April 2009.

Highlights

· Group turnover £255.7m (2008: £333.9m)
· Underlying group profit before tax £33.2m* (2008: £67.0m)
· Group profit before tax £20.8m (2008: £59.2m)
· Strong balance sheet - net assets £58.3m (2008: £76.2m)
· Focused cash management – net cash in bank £28.5m (2008: £53.9m)
· Unutilised five year £30m revolving credit facility
· Number of Proprietary Partners 61 (2008: 46)
· £10m kept in reserves resulting in average earnings per Proprietary Partner of £169,000 (2008: £780,000)

Nick Thomlinson, senior partner and chairman of the Knight Frank Group said:

Overview

“We are emerging from 12 very difficult months in the global commercial and residential property markets. Whilst our turnover has fallen in line with the reduction in activity, we have traded profitably. We are looking ahead to a period of stability and a much more realistic property market.
“Our desire to remain debt free and retain profits in the business has helped further to strengthen our balance sheet, allowing us to continue providing exceptional service and trusted advice to our clients.
“In the past 12 months, we haven’t stood still: we have refreshed our global brand to ensure we stand out from our competitors and communicate to our existing and future clients that we have a coherent business and are passionately professional in everything we do.
“We have launched the pioneering new online Global Residential Property Search drawing together the properties for sale and to let from all our offices around the world.
“We have expanded our global office network by opening in The Netherlands, Romania and Bahrain as we continue to provide services where our clients need us.
“In the four months to August we have continued to trade profitably across the group, with particular strength in our UK residential business which has once again out-performed the market.

Residential property market outlook

“Our volume of UK residential property exchanges during August this year was 37% higher than in August 2008 and the number of new applicants continues to track closely last year’s pattern and volume. Current applicants are still driving significant viewing activity, which is 90% higher this year than last, despite stock levels being down a third from their peak.
“We are seeing properties sell more quickly and at a closer price to their guide, compared with the same time last year. Average prices in the prime markets, according to our indices have risen by 6% since the Spring. However, tight supply of stock over the rest of this year could constrain the performance of these markets.
“It now appears that house prices are starting to stabilise across the world. The latest results from our Global House Price Index show values increased in almost half of the locations reporting price changes for the second quarter of the year. Significantly, quarterly price falls slowed down in more than three quarters of the locations covered and did not exceed 10% in any one country. This compares with double-digit falls in a number of locations during the first quarter.
“Overall, it seems that prices are starting to bottom out around the world. However, the market is still fragile and patchy. Further falls are always a possibility while credit flows remain constrained and the global economy struggles to recover from recession although it does appear that the worst is behind us.

Commercial property market outlook

“After more than two years of downturn in the UK commercial property market, we are finally seeing signs of recovery in our investment markets with July marking the first positive average yield movement since mid-2007. We still face challenging conditions, however, with our occupational markets expected to suffer the after-effects of the recession for some time to come. It may be 2012 before rents begin to rise again across the board but investors will see positive returns next year as the investment market steadies.
“In continental Europe, economic sentiment has started to improve, which has been supported by France and Germany both recording positive GDP growth in the second quarter. However, unemployment levels are projected to continue rising in the short term which, combined with the existing supply/demand imbalance across the majority of the continent's occupational markets, will continue to exert downward pressure on rents.
“A lack of available finance made investor appetite chronically weak in the first half of the year. Some yield tightening in prime markets has been recorded this year, but this only reflects a small portion of the market. We are predicting that transactional volumes will improve in the latter part of the year as counter-cyclical investors try to catch the bottom of market. Even so, investment turnover will remain well short of the levels seen in the boom years of the recent past.
“Positive sentiment in the Asian markets has taken a stronger hold than has been the case in Europe. Investment volumes have already started to pick up in the second quarter and more substantial lending in the latter half of this year and 2010 should see further growth.

Residential and commercial professional services

“When transactional property markets are constrained, it is our professional services teams that come into their own as our clients require trusted advice on their existing assets, to ensure their potential is maximised and that they are valued to the highest standards.
“The balance between our transactional and professional services activities sets us in good stead for the future. We remain a well diversified business across both residential and commercial, and it is this approach that continues to be our strategy.

Corporate responsibility

“Our corporate responsibility activities have increased and we continually seek to improve our social and economic contribution and minimise any environmental impacts of our business. In the UK, we reduced energy consumption by 18% per person.
“We are proud to continue sponsoring our charity of choice, LandAid and support employee fundraising activities which most recently included our Head of Healthcare who walked to the North Pole in sub -60c temperatures raising £10,000 for Myeloma UK.

Our people

“Our staff remain the lifeblood of our business. Recently they have had to work harder than ever and I would like to acknowledge their commitment and passion which do not go unnoticed.
“Looking to the future, we are well positioned to make the most of any upturn, not only because we have the very best teams but because as a business, we are in great shape.”

further information:

Olivia Lane-Nott, Knight Frank head of marketing & communications,
+44 (0)20 7861 1035
+44 (0)7768 021 873

Gold & the housing market (part II)

2009-09-09T12:10:00.004+01:00

OK, so gold is now trading at $1,000/ounce, with one prominent commentator suggesting that three-digit dollar gold price and single-digit silver may never again be seen:

In today's uncertain monetary environment the risk averse are fleeing to safe havens, which explains why gold is moving back to centre stage.
Gold protects against inflation by preserving purchasing power. It is not dependent on the health, or otherwise, of the financial system. It certainly doesn't need the guarantee of a state that might be as bankrupt as its banks.
And the value it delivers is based on thousands of years of experience that gold is money. More and more people are realising the advantages of owning sound money, and that means owning gold. [DM]

So much so that even the world famous Candy's have taken notice, with Bloomberg reporting the brothers now diversifying "away from property" buying 44% of a gold mine company with assets in the Philippines:

Just two years ago, real estate was the gold-plated investment. Nick recalls the time in 2007 when CPC paid 1.5 million pounds as a down payment on two flats priced at a total of 30.5 million pounds in a building under construction in Knightsbridge. CPC sold them a few months later, before the building was even completed, for 54 million pounds. “Nice deal, eh?” Nick says. “We lived in an amazing era.” The Candys are the first to say it’s a time that won’t be back soon.

What more can I say, reality's a bitch ...

related posts
2006 Gold & Housing Market 2008 In Dubai free gold with property

Are all estate agencies the same?

2009-09-07T10:59:00.002+01:00

Guest Post via Hamptons
If you have a house for rent or sale it is crucial to find a good estate agent, in order to achieve the best possible result. With the huge amount of estate agents it is not easy to select the right one, especially as they don’t always have the best reputation.

In order to find the right tenant or buyer for your property it is important to be able to reach a wide audience. Thus finding an estate agent with a large national and international network helps you to immediately market your property to a large audience. But your estate agent should also possess a specialist knowledge of the property situation in your local area, as well as knowing about new developments, schools and local attractions and conveniences, as you are most likely to find your buyer or tenant there. Estate Agents should be able to advice you on the price and presentation of your property that works with your area. It is thus crucial to find an estate agent with the right balance between a large network, and an extensive audience as well as portfolio but also with a strong local presence.
It is thus a good idea to check their presence in your local area, in the paper and on the internet, as well as having a look at their current portfolio to see their other properties for sale and rent and if your property would fit well among them. After having conducted some of your own research, you might notice that there are vast differences between the various estate agents. Further the general and additional services that estate agents offer are a crucial factor in deciding which one would suit you best.
Some will offer property management throughout the tenancy should you wish not to play an active part as a landlord. Further such services as professional inventories, refurbishments as well as mortgage advice. If you have chosen an estate agent, it is crucial to make sure that you get full advantage of their services, such as regular updates on the progress they have made with your property, as well as further and extensive advice on how to best present your property, should it stay longer than expected on the market. Making this research might sound like a big effort but it is worth it to achieve the best possible result.

About Hamptons

Hamptons International is owned and operated as a subsidiary of Emaar Properties and offers an extensive portfolio of UK and international property. Services include sales, lettings, residential developments, property management and mortgages.

Another day, Another report

2009-09-02T14:21:00.002+01:00

This time from Knight Frank, reporting positive (although slowing) growth for their August 2009 Prime London Index. Interesting to note the positive growth trend has been slowing over the past few months

Cayman Islands gone bust?

2009-09-02T13:15:00.003+01:00

According to the Guardian the Caribbean tax haven is officially bankrupt and can't pay its debts, nor does it have $30 million to pay staff wages for this month. The UK territory has been denied a 'bailout' from the UK treasury.
Question: how is it the UK can afford to bailout banks to the tune of hundreds of billions, yet now can't afford or wouldn't spend a few million to help pay staff wages in its own Caribbean territory? Here's more from Guardian ...

the world's biggest hedge-fund venue and fifth-biggest bank centre is now threatened, as the government of the Cayman Islands heads for bankruptcy — unable to pay its own staff and facing the prospect of introducing taxes as income from the world's shrunken financial system collapses.
But the situation is about to get worse after the British government, which has ultimate responsibility for the islands, last week refused to bail out the Caribbean idyll. It is not convinced the country will have the money to pay it back.
At the same time, hundreds of civil servants found that pension contributions and health insurance payments were missing from their pay slips. Contractors and government suppliers also had bills unpaid.
The leader of government business, William McKeeva Bush, begged the British government to borrow $310m (£190m) from banks. In a strongly worded response, Chris Bryant, a junior Foreign Office minister, has demanded the Caymans cut its borrowing and debt. And in a shockwave that will send tremors through the island's financial elite, Bryant even suggested that the tax haven introduce taxes.

Candys get sued again

2009-09-01T14:28:00.007+01:00

This time it's Carlos Slim, the world's third richest man suing the Awesome Twosome for $20.4 million over a $356 million loan default Mr Slim's funding group advanced the brothers towards a luxury development in Beverly Hills. Slim's company claims there is a "deficiency in payment of the Monthly Debt Service Payment."
Unfortunately for the Candy's, Slim seems to have gotten word of a recent Sunday Times article where the Candy boys "threw open their offshore accounts" to show the true value of their assets; with Christian Candy claiming to replace his £45 million yacht with a £63 million model. CC went on to claim that his company has a "war chest of around £200 million" and can comfortably "select the right opportunities." Slim retaliated saying that performing its debt obligation is apparently not "the right opportunity" for the Candy's.