Rogers Poll Blog

2008 College Football: Week 12 Preview

2008-11-11T09:00:00.000-08:00

The Big Game

#19 BYU - at - #22 Air Force

After five straight weeks where the Big XII owned the week's big game, another conference finally gets the chance to be highlighted. The Mountain West, home to both BYU and Air Force, currently ranks as the 6th best conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision and the best among the non-AQ leagues, having posted a solid 25-11 out-of-conference record. In fact, four of the conference's nine teams are ranked in this week's Top 25.

Both the Cougars and Falcons are 5-1 in conference play, and both still have a chance to win the league title. This game will be huge for both programs. BYU was the darling of the non-BCS conferences earlier in the year before stumbling against TCU. Despite two close games in the following weeks, they have managed to stay focused and have pushed their record to 9-1 overall. While the hope of playing in a BCS bowl game is likely gone for the Cougars, the goal of winning their third straight league crown is still very much alive.

Air Force may be the most overlooked 8-2 program in the country. In fact, the Falcons' only losses were by 7 points to #6 Utah (10-0) and by 6 points to Navy (6-3). The academy is a very capable football team and will have the advantage of playing at home this week. With a little help from Utah's opponents, if Air Force can manage to win this game and their upcoming battle with TCU, they will own a share of the Mountain West title. It would mark their first conference title since 1998, when they won the WAC. Regardless, this season is not to be overlooked. The Falcons will be playing in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since the 1997-1998 seasons.

I expect this to be a tightly contested, back-and-forth game. Still, I think BYU finds a way to come through with a win and push their mark to 10-1 heading into a huge showdown with rival Utah to end the regular season.

Prediction: BYU (27), Air Force (24)

Games To Watch

#34 South Carolina (7-3) at #3 Florida (8-1)
#26 California (6-3) at #27 Oregon State (6-3)

Florida has been going off since sleep-walking through a loss to Ole Miss. I expect them to continue that dominance against their former head coach, though Spurrier will have the Gamecocks ready to play. Gators win, 30-18. After defeating USC earlier this season, Oregon State controls their own destiny. With every win, they move closer to winning the Pac-10 and earning a spot in the Rose Bowl. They will continue on their quest after edging Cal, 28-27.

(Dis)Honorable Mention

#118 Washington State (1-9) at #91 Arizona State (3-6)
#90 UCLA (3-6) at #117 Washington (0-9)
#113 UAB (2-7) at #105 Tulane (2-7)
#88 Temple (3-6) at #111 Kent State (2-7)
#97 Middle Tennessee (3-6) at #114 Western Kentucky (2-8)

The Pac-10 is the lowest rated BCS conference this season and ranked behind one non-AQ conference, the Mountain West. Two games appearing on this list is indicative of the conference's down year. Arizona State and UCLA should both win and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. UAB and Tulane have both had rough years and each needs this win. I expect Tulane to slip by the Blazers. Temple has lost so many heart-breakers this year. This week, I think they will be on the favorable end of a close game. Old rivals, MTSU and WKU, will meet in what should be a closely contested game. I expect the Blue Raiders to win in overtime.

Bowl Watch

The following 29 teams should be in a bowl game:

#1 Alabama, 10-0 (6-0), SEC, SOS: 77
#2 Texas, 9-1 (5-1), Big XII, SOS: 4
#3 Florida, 8-1 (6-1), SEC, SOS: 14
#4 Texas Tech, 10-0 (6-0), Big XII, SOS: 68
#5 Boise State, 9-0 (5-0), WAC, SOS: 103
#6 Utah, 10-0 (6-0), Mountain West, SOS: 87
#7 USC, 8-1 (6-1), Pac-10, SOS: 53
#8 Oklahoma, 9-1 (5-1), Big XII, SOS: 51
#9 Penn State, 9-1 (5-1), Big Ten, SOS: 69
#10 Ball State, 9-0 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 119
#11 Ohio State, 8-2 (5-1), Big Ten, SOS: 11
#12 Georgia, 8-2 (5-2), SEC, SOS: 8
#13 Michigan State, 9-2 (6-1), Big Ten, SOS: 58
#14 Missouri, 8-2 (4-2), Big XII, SOS: 32
#15 Oklahoma State, 8-2 (4-2), Big XII, SOS: 54
#16 TCU, 9-2 (6-1), Mountain West, SOS: 79
#17 North Carolina, 7-2 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 28
#18 Pittsburgh, 7-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 49
#19 BYU, 9-1 (5-1), Mountain West, SOS: 118
#20 Cincinnati, 7-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 52
#21 Tulsa, 8-1 (5-0), C-USA, SOS: 120
#22 Air Force, 8-2 (5-1), Mountain West, SOS: 110
#23 Western Michigan, 8-2 (5-1), MAC, SOS: 109
#28 Oregon, 7-3 (5-2), Pac-10, SOS: 84
#30 Central Michigan, 7-2 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 106
#33 Rice, 7-3 (5-1), C-USA, SOS: 95
#34 South Carolina, 7-3 (4-3), SEC, SOS: 75
#35 Minnesota, 7-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 80
#37 Northwestern, 7-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 83

The following 22 teams are eligible for a bowl game:

#24 Florida State, 7-2 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 76
#25 Wake Forest, 6-3 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 26
#26 California, 6-3 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 34
#27 Oregon State, 6-3 (5-1), Pac-10, SOS: 48
#29 Virginia Tech, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 22
#31 Nebraska, 6-4 (3-3), Big XII, SOS: 9
#32 Miami, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 30
#36 LSU, 6-3 (3-3), SEC, SOS: 50
#38 Connecticut, 6-3 (2-2), Big East, SOS: 56
#39 Navy, 6-3, Independent, SOS: 46
#40 Georgia Tech, 7-3 (4-3), ACC, SOS: 66
#41 West Virginia, 6-3 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 78
#42 East Carolina, 6-3 (4-1), C-USA, SOS: 101
#43 Arizona, 6-3 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 115
#44 Iowa, 6-4 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 43
#45 Boston College, 6-3 (2-3), ACC, SOS: 97
#46 USF, 6-3 (1-3), Big East, SOS: 92
#48 Kansas, 6-4 (3-3), Big XII, SOS: 45
#50 Troy, 6-3 (4-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 114
#51 Maryland, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 90
#52 Kentucky, 6-4 (2-4), SEC, SOS: 40
#65 San Jose State, 6-4 (4-2), WAC, SOS: 112

26 schools are already out of bowl consideration. Of the other 43 schools, 20 currently project to be eligible for a bowl game. That would put the total number of eligible schools at 71, 3 more than needed to fill the 34-game bowl schedule.

Current bowl projections have Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Utah, Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida State, Boise State, Penn State, and USC in the BCS. Rutgers, Arkansas State, and San Jose State are projected to miss bowl games despite being eligible.

All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.

2008 College Football: Week 11 Preview

2008-11-04T14:08:00.000-08:00

The Big Game

#11 Oklahoma State- at - #6 Texas Tech

So last week's prediction proved to be true. Texas Tech did indeed unseat the Texas Longhorns and now control their own destiny. However, Tech is about to find themselves in a brutal stretch of games similar to what Texas had to endure in the weeks leading up to last week's Big Game.

Oklahoma State is a great team, sitting at 8-1, and is still in the hunt for the Big XII South title. The Cowboys will definitely have their hands full this weekend against the Red Raiders. However, they have already proven this season that they are definitely capable of competing on the road against elite competition. They went to Missouri on October 11th and upset the Tigers, 28-23. Two weeks later, they traveled to Austin and pushed the Longhorns to the limit, falling 28-24 for their only defeat in the 2008 campaign.

Texas Tech was largely untested prior to two weeks ago. In fact, many expected them to stumble on their trip to Lawrence after being pushed to overtime at home against Nebraska a couple weeks earlier. However, the Raiders made a big statement as they destroyed the Jayhawks 63-21. They followed that up with the program's biggest win ever when they downed Texas this past Saturday on a last second touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree.

Both of these teams have proven themselves worthy of elite status in 2008. I expect this game to come down to the wire, much like last week's Big Game. In the end, however, I think the home field advantage will give Texas Tech the slight edge they need to overcome the challenge from the Cowboys.

Prediction: Oklahoma State (34), Texas Tech (35)

Games To Watch

#1 Alabama (9-0) at #25 LSU (6-2)
#14 Ohio State (7-2) at #23 Northwestern (7-2)
#27 Georgia Tech (7-2) at #20 North Carolina (6-2)
#19 California (6-2) at #9 USC (7-1)
#24 Cincinnati (6-2) at #30 West Virginia (6-2)
#12 TCU (9-1) at #8 Utah (9-0)

The new #1 team in the land will look to stay perfect in a tough road trip to Baton Rouge to face LSU. I'll take Bama, 28-23. Ohio State looks to keep its BCS dreams alive against a very tough Northwestern squad. I'll take the Buckeyes, 27-24 in overtime. Georgia Tech and UNC meet in a pivotal game that could decide the division. I'm taking the Heels, 24-22. Cal and USC meet with the Pac-10 on the line. Trojans win, 32-22. Similarly, Cincinnati travels to West Virginia in attempts to wrestle the Big East away from the Mountaineers. I like WVU at home, 24-21. In this week's runner-up for the Big Game, TCU and Utah will battle with a potential BCS at-large berth on the line. TCU will pull the upset, 27-24.

(Dis)Honorable Mention

#96 Arizona State (2-6) at #115 Washington (0-8)
#87 Memphis (4-5) at #116 SMU (1-8)
#90 Southern Miss (3-6) at #107 UCF (2-6)
#118 North Texas (1-8) at #86 FAU (3-5)
#106 UL Monroe (3-6) at #101 Middle Tennessee (2-6)

Washington will get a rare opportunity to end its winless drought. However, I expect Arizona State to win, 31-21. Conference USA, experiencing a big down year, puts two games on the list this week. Memphis should win, 34-27. Southern Miss showed how much they hated being on this list last week, posting a 70-14 win over UAB. Though it will be closer this week, I still expect the Eagles to win, 31-24, against UCF. The Sun Belt also puts two games on the list this week. FAU will end North Texas' win streak at one game, 35-24. UL Monroe, however, will build off last week's surprising win and upend MTSU, 26-25.

Bowl Watch

The following 23 teams should be in a bowl game:

#1 Alabama, 9-0 (5-0), SEC, SOS: 72
#2 Texas, 8-1 (4-1), Big XII, SOS: 2
#3 Penn State, 9-0 (5-0), Big Ten, SOS: 84
#4 Florida, 7-1 (5-1), SEC, SOS: 14
#5 Boise State, 8-0 (4-0), WAC, SOS: 99
#6 Texas Tech, 9-0 (5-0), Big XII, SOS: 83
#7 Oklahoma, 8-1 (4-1), Big XII, SOS: 33
#8 Utah, 9-0 (5-0), Mountain West, SOS: 110
#9 USC, 7-1 (5-1), Pac-10, SOS: 68
#10 Ball State, 8-0 (4-0), MAC, SOS: 120
#11 Oklahoma State, 8-1 (4-1), Big XII, SOS: 82
#12 TCU, 9-1 (6-0), Mountain West, SOS: 105
#13 Michigan State, 8-2 (5-1), Big Ten, SOS: 44
#14 Ohio State, 7-2 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 15
#15 Georgia, 7-2 (4-2), SEC, SOS: 11
#16 Missouri, 7-2 (3-2), Big XII, SOS: 27
#17 BYU, 8-1 (4-1), Mountain West, SOS: 116
#21 Tulsa, 8-1 (5-0), C-USA, SOS: 119
#22 Minnesota, 7-2 (3-2), Big Ten, SOS: 67
#23 Northwestern, 7-2 (3-2), Big Ten, SOS: 85
#26 Air Force, 7-2 (4-1), Mountain West, SOS: 113
#28 Central Michigan, 7-2 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 100
#29 Western Michigan, 7-2 (5-1), MAC, SOS: 112

The following 17 teams are eligible for a bowl game:

#18 Pittsburgh, 6-2 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 46
#19 California, 6-2 (4-1), Pac-10, SOS: 59
#20 North Carolina, 6-2 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 34
#25 LSU, 6-2 (3-2), SEC, SOS: 76
#27 Georgia Tech, 7-2 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 86
#30 West Virginia, 6-2 (3-0), Big East, SOS: 93
#31 Miami, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 23
#34 Oregon, 6-3 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 77
#37 Maryland, 6-2 (3-1), ACC, SOS: 104
#38 Rice, 6-3 (5-1), C-USA, SOS: 79
#39 Connecticut, 6-3 (2-2), Big East, SOS: 49
#40 Kansas, 6-3 (3-2), Big XII, SOS: 56
#41 Kentucky, 6-3 (2-3), SEC, SOS: 52
#42 South Carolina, 6-3 (3-3), SEC, SOS: 69
#43 Navy, 6-3, Independent, SOS: 42
#48 USF, 6-3 (1-3), Big East, SOS: 90
#56 San Jose State, 6-3 (4-1), WAC, SOS: 114

The following 21 teams are one win away from being eligible:

#24 Cincinnati, 6-2 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 64
#32 Wake Forest, 5-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 21
#33 Florida State, 6-2 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 78
#35 Oregon State, 5-3 (4-1), Pac-10, SOS: 30
#36 Vanderbilt, 5-3 (3-2), SEC, SOS: 43
#44 Nebraska, 5-4 (2-3), Big XII, SOS: 13
#45 Virginia Tech, 5-3 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 35
#46 Arizona, 5-3 (3-2), Pac-10, SOS: 87
#47 Notre Dame, 5-3, Independent, SOS: 75
#49 Ole Miss, 5-4 (3-3), SEC, SOS: 9
#50 East Carolina, 5-3 (3-1), C-USA, SOS: 96
#51 Virginia, 5-4 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 6
#52 Troy, 5-3 (4-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 107
#53 Iowa, 5-4 (2-3), Big Ten, SOS: 54
#54 Boston College, 5-3 (2-3), ACC, SOS: 106
#55 Illinois, 5-4 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 28
#57 UL Lafayette, 5-3 (4-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 118
#58 Fresno State, 5-3 (2-2), WAC, SOS: 117
#59 Northern Illinois, 5-3 (4-1), MAC, SOS: 109
#60 Stanford, 5-4 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 71
#61 Louisville, 5-3 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 102

14 schools are already out of bowl consideration. Of the other 45 schools, 10 currently project to be eligible for a bowl game. That would put the total number of eligible schools at 71, 3 more than needed to fill the 34-game bowl schedule.

Current bowl projections have Texas, Penn State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, West Virginia, Florida State, Boise State, Ohio State and USC in the BCS. New Mexico, Temple, and Buffalo are projected to miss bowl games despite being eligible.

All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.

2008 College Football: Week 10 Preview

2008-10-27T12:00:00.000-07:00

The Big Game

#1 Texas - at - #8 Texas Tech

After three straight games of the week, one would think the Longhorns deserve a break. They have established themselves as the clear-cut #1 team in the country after defeating Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks. Now, they must travel to Lubbock to play a very dangerous Texas Tech team. If they can escape with a win, they should be able to coast to the finish line and reserve a spot in the BCS National Championship game.

Texas Tech, however, remains undefeated and has national title dreams of their own. Many, including me, were still skeptical of the Red Raiders going into last weekend. To that point, Nebraska (currently 5-3, 2-2 in Big XII play) was the toughest team they had played. The game was at home and the Huskers pushed them into overtime and had a real chance to win after Texas Tech missed an extra point. They had only played three road games, the two toughest of which were Kansas State and Texas A&M, both 1-3 in Big XII games. Overall, they had played the 113th ranked schedule in the country. The popular belief was that they would be exposed against Kansas when they traveled to Lawrence last week. In fact, the Jayhawks were actually favored to win that game. Texas Tech made an emphatic statement, however, posting a 63-21 win. Now, they get ready to host Texas in what is arguably the biggest game in the school's history.

While I truly believe Texas is the better team, the deck seems to be stacked against them this week. This will be the Longhorns first true road game in a month, and it follows one of the most grueling stretches in the school's history. The pressure to win is tremendous, and their opponent will be playing in their first big game of the year. The fatigue, expectations, hostile crowd, and Texas Tech's focus will be the undoing of one of the best college football seasons in recent memory.

Prediction: Texas (33), Texas Tech (34)

Games To Watch

#7 Georgia (7-1) vs #6 Florida (6-1) [Jacksonville, FL]
#34 Northwestern (6-2) at #16 Minnesota (7-1)
#24 Oregon (6-2) at #23 California (5-2)
#29 USF (6-2) at #30 Cincinnati (5-2)
#25 Pittsburgh (5-2) at #26 Notre Dame (5-2)

There is an important showdown in Jacksonville this weekend as Georgia and Florida meet in a game that is likely to decide the SEC East champion. After Florida's recent performances, I have to go with the Gators. Northwestern is a team that hasn't played particularly well on the road, so I'll take Minnesota in the biggest Big Ten match-up of the weekend. All of a sudden, the Oregon-Cal game is interesting again. I'll take the Ducks. USF has inexplicably lost two straight conference games. They'll end that streak against Cincinnati. As long as Dave Wannstedt is on the sidelines, Pitt will lose games they shouldn't. Count this weekend among them. I'm picking the Irish.

(Dis)Honorable Mention

#96 Michigan (2-6) at #93 Purdue (2-6)
#118 San Diego State (1-7) at #105 Wyoming (2-6)
#108 UAB (2-6) at #97 Southern Miss (2-6)
#120 North Texas (0-8) at #107 Western Kentucky (2-6)

Who would have ever thought that Michigan would make this list? A loss this weekend by the Wolverines would end the nation's longest active consecutive bowl streak at 33 years. SDSU and Wyoming pits two coaches who are likely on their way out. UAB will look to get its first ever win against Southern Miss (0-8 all-time). North Texas, one of only two remaining FBS teams without a win, will try to overcome the distraction of positive drug tests for 15 players to capture their first win of the season.

Bowl Watch

The following 16 teams should be in a bowl game:

#1 Texas, 8-0 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 12
#2 Alabama, 8-0 (5-0), SEC, SOS: 74
#3 Boise State, 7-0 (3-0), WAC, SOS: 87
#4 Penn State, 9-0 (5-0), Big Ten, SOS: 85
#7 Georgia, 7-1 (4-1), SEC, SOS: 26
#8 Texas Tech, 8-0 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 109
#9 Oklahoma, 7-1 (3-1), Big XII, SOS: 45
#10 Utah, 8-0 (4-0), Mountain West, SOS: 112
#11 Ball State, 8-0 (4-0), MAC, SOS: 117
#12 Oklahoma State, 7-1 (3-1), Big XII, SOS: 53
#13 Tulsa, 8-0 (5-0), C-USA, SOS: 120
#14 Ohio State, 7-2 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 9
#15 TCU, 8-1 (5-0), Mountain West, SOS: 100
#16 Minnesota, 7-1 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 78
#17 Michigan State, 7-2 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 40
#21 BYU, 7-1 (3-1), Mountain West, SOS: 115

The following 12 teams are eligible for a bowl game:

#5 USC, 6-1 (4-1), Pac-10, SOS: 28
#6 Florida, 6-1 (4-1), SEC, SOS: 35
#18 Missouri, 6-2 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 16
#19 North Carolina, 6-2 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 19
#22 Connecticut, 6-2 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 52
#24 Oregon, 6-2 (4-1), Pac-10, SOS: 97
#29 USF, 6-2 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 107
#32 Air Force, 6-2 (4-1), Mountain West, SOS: 102
#33 Western Michigan, 6-2 (4-1), MAC, SOS: 98
#34 Northwestern, 6-2 (2-2), Big Ten, SOS: 106
#35 Central Michigan, 6-2 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 90
#41 Maryland, 6-2 (3-1), ACC, SOS: 104

The following 25 teams are one win away from being eligible:

#20 Florida State, 6-1 (3-1), ACC, SOS: 89
#23 California, 5-2 (3-1), Pac-10, SOS: 68
#25 Pittsburgh, 5-2 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 70
#26 Notre Dame, 5-2, Independent, SOS: 93
#27 LSU, 5-2 (3-2), SEC, SOS: 64
#28 Nebraska, 5-3 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 34
#31 Troy, 5-2 (4-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 84
#36 Boston College, 5-2 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 95
#37 Louisville, 5-2 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 76
#38 Vanderbilt, 5-3 (3-2), SEC, SOS: 48
#39 Georgia Tech, 6-2 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 83
#40 Virginia, 5-3 (3-1), ACC, SOS: 3
#42 Virginia Tech, 5-3 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 24
#43 Fresno State, 5-2 (2-1), WAC, SOS: 113
#45 Miami, 5-3 (2-2), ACC, SOS: 27
#47 West Virginia, 5-2 (2-0), Big East, SOS: 111
#48 Arizona, 5-3 (3-2), Pac-10, SOS: 82
#49 Iowa, 5-3 (2-2), Big Ten, SOS: 65
#50 Rice, 5-3 (4-1), C-USA, SOS: 71
#51 Kentucky, 5-3 (1-3), SEC, SOS: 38
#52 Kansas, 5-3 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 57
#53 South Carolina, 5-3 (2-3), SEC, SOS: 60
#54 Navy, 5-3, Independent, SOS: 43
#58 Northern Illinois, 5-3 (4-1), MAC, SOS: 108
#60 San Jose State, 5-3 (3-1), WAC, SOS: 86

14 schools need to win out to be in a bowl game, 9 others are already out of bowl consideration. Of the other 44 schools, 19 currently project to be eligible for a bowl game. That would put the total number of eligible schools at 72, 4 more than needed to fill the 34-game bowl schedule.

Current bowl projections have Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Utah, Florida, Connecticut, North Carolina, Boise State, Penn State, and USC in the BCS. Illinois, Duke, Northern Illinois, and Akron are projected to miss bowl games despite being eligible.

All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.

2008 College Football: Week 9 Preview

2008-10-20T12:00:00.000-07:00

The Big Game

#4 Oklahoma State - at - #1 Texas

For the third straight week, Texas will be playing in the national spotlight. After topping Oklahoma and Missouri in consecutive weeks, do the Longhorns have enough left in the take to go full throttle again to fight off another stiff challenge?

Oklahoma State is a formidable opponent, having cruised to a 7-0 start, scoring 55 or more in four of those contests. However, they've done it against the 91st ranked schedule. Outside of their very impressive road win at Missouri, the toughest teams they've faced are Troy (4-2) and Houston (4-3) - both of which were at home. The other four wins have come against Washington State (1-7) at a neutral site, Missouri State (FCS) at home, Texas A&M (2-5) at home, and Baylor (3-4) at home. Still, they are one of just nine remaining undefeated teams in the FBS, and they've actually played a tougher schedule than Boise State (SOS: 92), Penn State (SOS: 108), Utah (SOS: 110), Texas Tech (SOS: 113), Ball State (SOS: 119), and Tulsa (SOS: 120).

Texas, on the other hand, has really proven themselves over the last two weeks after a soft opening stretch that included home games against FAU, at UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. Since then, however, the Longhorns have disposed of Colorado (on the road), Oklahoma (at a neutral site), and Missouri (at home), making it look easy with an average score of 46-27 over that 3-game stretch. Their total schedule played thus far now ranks as the 20th toughest in the country. It will only get tougher over now with #4 Oklahoma State, in addition to upcoming contests against #12 Texas Tech and #31 Kansas. Despite the tough schedule on the horizon, the biggest challenge for the Longhorns may be keeping their focus from week-to-week.

Prediction: Oklahoma State (31), Texas (35)

Games To Watch

#11 Georgia (6-1) at #17 LSU (5-1)
#7 Penn State (8-0) at #9 Ohio State (7-1)
#12 Texas Tech (7-0) at #31 Kansas (5-2)
#28 Virginia Tech (5-2) at #29 Florida State (5-1)
#23 Boston College (5-1) at #32 North Carolina (5-2)
#6 USC (5-1) at #35 Arizona (5-2)

With the season maturing, these games mean so much in the conference standings. The SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, ACC, and Pac-10 will all be on display with these high-profile contests. I'll take Georgia to top LSU, Ohio State to end Penn State's national championship dreams, Kansas to expose Texas Tech, Virginia Tech to rebound against the Seminoles, Boston College to hand UNC their second straight defeat, and USC to trounce Arizona.

(Dis)Honorable Mention

#95 Middle Tennessee (2-5) at #99 Mississippi State (2-5)
#92 Texas A&M (2-5) at #105 Iowa State (2-5)
#93 Southern Miss (2-5) at #97 Memphis (3-5)
#118 Kent State (1-6) at #104 Miami, Ohio (2-5)
#103 Ohio (2-5) at #88 Temple (2-5)
#90 FAU (2-5) at #110 UL Monroe (2-5)

In all things, seek balance. The schedule lives up to that this week as there are as many games pitting bottom feeders against one another as there are of those perched high. This slate of pillow fights includes conference games from the Sun Belt, Conference USA, two from the MAC, and a surprising entry from the Big XII. There is also an out-of-conference match-up between the Sun Belt's Middle Tennessee and the SEC's Mississippi State.

Bowl Watch

The following 9 teams should be in a bowl game:

#1 Texas, 7-0 (3-0), Big XII, SOS: 20
#2 Alabama, 7-0 (4-0), SEC, SOS: 66
#4 Oklahoma State, 7-0 (3-0), Big XII, SOS: 91
#7 Penn State, 8-0 (4-0), Big Ten, SOS: 108
#9 Ohio State, 7-1 (4-0), Big Ten, SOS: 28
#10 Ball State, 7-0 (3-0), MAC, SOS: 119
#13 Utah, 8-0 (4-0), Mountain West, SOS: 110
#14 Tulsa, 7-0 (4-0), C-USA, SOS: 120
#16 TCU, 7-1 (4-0), Mountain West, SOS: 81

The following 10 teams are eligible for a bowl game:

#3 Boise State, 6-0 (2-0), WAC, SOS: 92
#8 Oklahoma, 6-1 (2-1), Big XII, SOS: 25
#11 Georgia, 6-1 (3-1), SEC, SOS: 24
#12 Texas Tech, 7-0 (3-0), Big XII, SOS: 113
#18 Minnesota, 6-1 (2-1), Big Ten, SOS: 75
#19 USF, 6-1 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 97
#21 Michigan State, 6-2 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 32
#24 Northwestern, 6-1 (2-1), Big Ten, SOS: 102
#26 BYU, 6-1 (2-1), Mountain West, SOS: 115
#41 Western Michigan, 6-2 (4-1), MAC, SOS: 105

The following 21 teams are one win away from being eligible:

#5 Florida, 5-1 (3-1), SEC, SOS: 39
#6 USC, 5-1 (3-1), Pac-10, SOS: 37
#15 Pittsburgh, 5-1 (2-0), Big East, SOS: 58
#17 LSU, 5-1 (3-1), SEC, SOS: 80
#20 Missouri, 5-2 (1-2), Big XII, SOS: 7
#23 Boston College, 5-1 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 107
#25 Georgia Tech, 6-1 (3-1), ACC, SOS: 88
#27 Vanderbilt, 5-2 (3-2), SEC, SOS: 50
#28 Virginia Tech, 5-2 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 31
#31 Kansas, 5-2 (2-1), Big XII, SOS: 60
#32 North Carolina, 5-2 (1-2), ACC, SOS: 54
#33 Oregon, 5-2 (3-1), Pac-10, SOS: 84
#35 Arizona, 5-2 (3-1), Pac-10, SOS: 106
#36 Kentucky, 5-2 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 67
#38 Connecticut, 5-2 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 79
#42 Central Michigan, 5-2 (4-0), MAC, SOS: 83
#44 Maryland, 5-2 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 89
#45 Air Force, 5-2 (3-1), Mountain West, SOS: 103
#46 Iowa, 5-3 (2-2), Big Ten, SOS: 63
#47 South Carolina, 5-3 (2-3), SEC, SOS: 48
#51 San Jose State, 5-2 (3-0), WAC, SOS: 109

7 schools need to win out to be in a bowl game, 5 others are already out of bowl consideration. Of the other 68 schools, 31 currently project to be eligible for a bowl game. That would put the total number of eligible schools at 71, 3 more than needed to fill the 34-game bowl schedule.

All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.

Longest Streaks Without Being Shutout

2008-10-15T08:55:00.000-07:00

Updated: Monday, November 17, 2008

Last year, I followed the streaks without being shutout of all 119 FBS programs from the season's beginning until its end. 7 streaks that dated back to before 2000 were ended, including Nevada's (which had not been shutout since 1980 before their 23-0 defeat in the New Mexico Bowl) and Oregon's (whose streak extended back to 1985 before their 16-0 loss to UCLA). At season's end, Washington State claimed the longest active streak - dating back to September 15, 1984. Given the popularity of the post last season, I will continue to follow the active streaks this season. This year, there is one more school to monitor as Western Kentucky has joined the ranks.

Shutouts in college football are a rare thing. In fact, only 4.1% (189 of 4552) of games involving FBS (formerly I-A) teams in the past 6 years (2002-2007) have involved shutouts of an FBS school. Even that low of a rate is down for the 2008 season, as FBS programs have been shutout only 26 times in the 664 contests this year (3.9%).

Streaks Ended in 2008
#1 Washington State, lost 69-0 to USC (wk 8), began 09/15/1984
#3 Colorado, lost 58-0 to Missouri (wk 9), began 11/12/1988
#21 Wake Forest, lost 26-0 to Maryland (wk 8), began 09/05/1998
#23 Toledo, lost 31-0 to Ball State (wk 6), began 09/12/1998
#42 UCLA, lost 59-0 to BYU (wk 3), began 11/17/2001
#59 Washington, lost 56-0 to USC (wk 10), began 10/23/2004
#64 Arizona State, lost 28-0 to USC (wk 7), began 10/30/2004
#66 Maryland, lost 31-0 to Virginia (wk 6), began 11/06/2004
#69 UL Monroe, lost 34-0 to Auburn (wk 1), began 09/10/2005
#80 Duke, lost 27-0 to Georgia Tech (wk 6), began 09/30/2006
#85 FAU, lost 17-0 to Michigan State (wk 3), began 10/18/2006
#91 Notre Dame, lost 17-0 to BC (wk 11), began 10/20/2007
#92 E. Michigan, lost 37-0 to N. Illinois (wk 5), began 11/24/2006
#92 New Mexico St, lost 49-0 to Boise St (wk 10), began 10/07/2007
#92 San Jose St, lost 21-0 to La Tech (wk 11), began 10/20/2007
#94 Kent State, lost 21-0 to Boston College (wk 1), began 11/11/2006
#95 Arkansas State, lost 35-0 to Alabama (wk 10), began 10/27/2007
#96 Idaho, lost 70-0 to Arizona (wk 1), began 11/18/2006
#98 FIU, lost 42-0 to Iowa (wk 2), began 09/01/2007
#100 UL Monroe, lost 59-0 to Ole Miss (wk 12), began 08/30/2008
#103 Louisiana Tech, lost 29-0 to Kansas (wk 2), began 10/06/2007
#106 Wyoming, lost 44-0 to BYU (wk 4), began 11/10/2007
#118 NC State, lost 34-0 to South Carolina (wk 1), began 11/24/2007
#118 Wash St, lost 58-0 to Stanford (wk 10), began 10/18/2008
#118 Wash St, lost 31-0 to Arizona St (wk 12), began 11/01/2008
#119 Wyoming, lost 24-0 to New Mexico (wk 6), began 09/20/2008

The dates of the last shutout for each program are detailed below, with the twenty-five longest streaks being highlighted. Also noted for each program is the year they began their current run at the NCAA's highest level. Note that NCAA classification started in 1937.

As this list changes in the future, I will post updates.

1. Michigan Wolverines, 1937, Big Ten, 10/20/1984
2. Florida Gators, 1937, SEC, 10/29/1988
3. TCU Horned Frogs, 1937, Mountain West, 11/16/1991
4. Air Force Falcons, 1957, Mountain West, 12/31/1992
5. Ohio State Buckeyes, 1937, Big Ten, 11/20/1993

6. Tennessee Volunteers, 1937, SEC, 09/17/1994
7. Virginia Tech Hokies, 1940, ACC, 09/16/1995
8. Georgia Bulldogs, 1937, SEC, 09/30/1995
9. Arkansas Razorbacks, 1937, SEC, 11/18/1995
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 1937, Big XII, 09/21/1996

11. Pittsburgh Panthers, 1937, Big East, 09/28/1996
12. Kansas State Wildcats, 1937, Big XII, 11/16/1996
13. Wisconsin Badgers, 1937, Big Ten, 08/24/1997
14. Boise State Broncos, 1996, WAC, 09/27/1997
15. East Carolina Pirates, 1966, C-USA, 10/04/1997

16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 1937, ACC, 10/18/1997
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 1937, Big XII, 10/18/1997
18. USC Trojans, 1937, Pac-10, 11/01/1997
19. Bowling Green Falcons, 1983, MAC, 09/05/1998
20. Hawaii Warriors, 1974, WAC, 10/03/1998

21. Boston College Eagles, 1939, ACC, 10/08/1998
22. Fresno State Bulldogs, 1937, WAC, 11/07/1998
23. Oklahoma Sooners, 1937, Big XII, 11/07/1998
24. Ole Miss Rebels, 1937, SEC, 11/07/1998
25. Memphis Tigers, 1960, C-USA, 09/04/1999

The remaining FBS programs are ranked below ...

26. California Golden Bears, 1937, Pac-10, 09/11/1999
27. Northern Illinois Huskies, 1983, MAC, 09/18/1999
28. Houston Cougars, 1949, C-USA, 09/23/2000
29. Louisville Cardinals, 1962, Big East, 09/23/2000
30. Indiana Hoosiers, 1937, Big Ten, 10/14/2000
31. Iowa Hawkeyes, 1937, Big Ten, 10/14/2000
32. Marshall Thundering Herd, 1997, C-USA, 10/14/2000
33. Michigan State Spartans, 1937, Big Ten, 10/21/2000
34. Rice Owls, 1937, C-USA, 10/28/2000
35. Alabama Crimson Tide, 1937, SEC, 11/18/2000
36. Penn State Nittany Lions, 1937, Big Ten, 10/06/2001
37. West Virginia Mountaineers, 1939, Big East, 10/06/2001
38. Oregon State Beavers, 1937, Pac-10, 09/28/2002
39. Tulane Green Wave, 1937, C-USA, 09/28/2002
40. Central Michigan Chippewas, 1975, MAC, 10/19/2002
41. UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 1974, Sun Belt, 10/26/2002
42. Kansas Jayhawks, 1937, Big XII, 11/02/2002
43. LSU Tigers, 1937, SEC, 11/16/2002
44. Missouri Tigers, 1937, Big XII, 11/23/2002
45. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 1946, Big East, 11/23/2002
46. Auburn Tigers, 1937, SEC, 08/30/2003
47. Clemson Tigers, 1937, ACC, 08/30/2003
48. UTEP Miners, 1940, C-USA, 09/13/2003
49. Northwestern Wildcats, 1937, Big Ten, 09/27/2003
50. Army Black Knights, 1937, Independent, 10/04/2003

51. Iowa State Cyclones, 1937, Big XII, 11/08/2003
52. Texas A&M Aggies, 1937, Big XII, 11/08/2003
53. UNLV Rebels, 1978, Mountain West, 11/08/2003
54. Vanderbilt Commodores, 1937, SEC, 11/22/2003
55. BYU Cougars, 1938, Mountain West, 11/22/2003
56. Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 1963, C-USA, 12/31/2003
57. Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 1937, C-USA, 09/18/2004
58. Texas Longhorns, 1937, Big XII, 10/09/2004
59. SMU Mustangs, 1937, C-USA, 10/30/2004
60. Western Michigan Broncos, 1962, MAC, 11/06/2004
61. Ohio Bobcats, 1983, MAC, 09/17/2005
62. Arizona Wildcats, 1939, Pac-10, 10/01/2005
63. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 1939, Big XII, 10/01/2005
64. Ball State Cardinals, 1983, MAC, 10/01/2005
65. Cincinnati Bearcats, 1946, Big East, 11/09/2005
66. Connecticut Huskies, 2000, Big East, 11/12/2005
67. USF Bulls, 2001, Big East, 12/31/2005
68. Illinois Fighting Illini, 1937, Big Ten, 09/09/2006
69. South Carolina Gamecocks, 1939, SEC, 09/09/2006
70. UCF Knights, 1996, C-USA, 09/09/2006
71. UAB Blazers, 1996, C-USA, 09/16/2006
72. Troy Trojans, 2002, Sun Belt, 09/23/2006
73. North Texas Mean Green, 1995, Sun Belt, 09/30/2006
74. Kentucky Wildcats, 1937, SEC, 10/14/2006
75. Navy Midshipmen, 1937, Independent, 10/14/2006

76. Colorado State Rams, 1940, Mountain West, 10/21/2006
77. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 1937, Big Ten, 10/28/2006
78. Purdue Boilermakers, 1937, Big Ten, 10/28/2006
79. Buffalo Bulls, 1999, MAC, 10/28/2006
80. Stanford Cardinal, 1937, Pac-10, 11/04/2006
81. North Carolina Tar Heels, 1937, ACC, 11/11/2006
82. Florida State Seminoles, 1955, ACC, 11/11/2006
83. San Diego State Aztecs, 1969, Mountain West, 11/18/2006
84. Virginia Cavaliers, 1940, ACC, 11/25/2006
85. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 1937, SEC, 08/30/2007
86. Baylor Bears, 1937, Big XII, 09/01/2007
87. Syracuse Orange, 1937, Big East, 09/08/2007
88. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, 1999, Sun Belt, 09/15/2007
89. Utah Utes, 1938, Mountain West, 09/22/2007
90. Miami (OH) Red Hawks, 1983, MAC, 09/22/2007
91. New Mexico Lobos, 1940, Mountain West, 11/03/2007
92. Utah State Aggies, 1939, WAC, 11/10/2007
93. Miami Hurricanes, 1946, ACC, 11/10/2007
94. Temple Owls, 1971, MAC, 11/10/2007
95. Akron Zips, 1987, MAC, 11/14/2007
96. Oregon Ducks, 1937, Pac-10, 11/24/2007
97. Nevada Wolfpack, 1992, WAC, 12/22/2007
98. Western Kentucky, 2008, Independent, 09/14/2002*
99. NC State Wolfpack, 1940, ACC, 08/28/2008
100. Kent State Golden Flashes, 1983, MAC, 08/30/2008

101. Idaho Vandals, 1997, WAC, 08/30/2008
102. FIU Golden Panthers, 2006, Sun Belt, 09/06/2008
103. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 1989, WAC, 09/06/2008
104. FAU Owls, 2006, Sun Belt, 09/12/2008
105. UCLA Bruins, 1937, Pac-10, 09/13/2008
106. Eastern Michigan Eagles, 1983, MAC, 09/27/2008
107. Maryland Terrapins, 1940, ACC, 10/04/2008
108. Duke Blue Devils, 1937, ACC, 10/04/2008
109. Wyoming Cowboys, 1940, Mountain West, 10/04/2008
110. Toledo Rockets, 1962, MAC, 10/04/2008
111. Arizona State Sun Devils, 1956, Pac-10, 10/11/2008
112. Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 1939, ACC, 10/18/2008
113. Colorado Buffaloes, 1937, Big XII, 10/25/2008
114. Washington Huskies, 1937, Pac-10, 11/01/2008
115. New Mexico State Aggies, 1959, WAC, 11/01/2008
116. Arkansas State Indians, 1992, Sun Belt, 11/01/2008
117. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 1937, Independent, 11/08/2008
118. San Jose State Spartans, 1950, WAC, 11/08/2008
119. UL Monroe War Hawks, 1994, Sun Belt, 11/15/2008
120. Washington State Cougars, 1937, Pac-10, 11/15/2008

* Western Kentucky's streak dates back to 2002. However, WKU did not begin playing in the Football Bowl Subdivision (I-A) until this season. Thus, for the purpose of this ranking, they were only given credit back to the beginning of the '08 season.

2008 College Football: Week 8 Preview

2008-10-14T15:12:00.000-07:00

The Big Game

#14 Missouri - at - #1 Texas

After last week's impressive win over Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, Texas improved to 6-0 and claimed the top spot in the Rogers Poll. Now, the Longhorns have to get ready to welcome #14 Missouri (5-1) to Austin in what promises to be another great game.

Mizzou was 5-0 and ranked #2 heading into last week, before falling to Oklahoma State in another Big XII thriller. With Texas' #1 ranking and the desire to stay in the national championship race, the Tigers will have all the motivation they need.

After a hard-fought game this past week against their bitter rival and a tough stretch including Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas in the weeks following this game, Mack Brown has to be concerned about a potential letdown.

This should be an instant classic, but I expect Texas to hold on and maintain their spot on top of the college football world. Of course, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Missouri shook up the polls again with a big win.

Prediction: Missouri (31), Texas (35)

Games To Watch

#19 Vanderbilt (5-1) at #15 Georgia (5-1)
#16 Ohio State (6-1) at #8 Michigan State (6-1)
#22 Kansas (5-1) at #10 Oklahoma (5-1)
#21 Virginia Tech (5-1) at #33 Boston College (4-1)
#12 BYU (6-0) at #28 TCU (6-1)

Georgia should handle Vandy, forcing the Commodores to look ahead to their game against Duke to gain bowl eligibility. Michigan State will beat Ohio State and march on to a de facto Big Ten title game against Penn State in the finale. Oklahoma should rebound and handle Kansas. Virginia Tech will continue to establish itself as the ACC favorite by defeating BC on the road. A short week and a long road trip may spell disaster for BYU as they face their toughest opponent thus far in TCU.

(Dis)Honorable Mention

#119 Idaho (1-6) at #87 Louisiana Tech (2-3)
#103 FAU (1-5) at #104 Western Kentucky (2-5)
#120 North Texas (0-6) at #118 UL Monroe (1-5)

Five of the six teams participating in this week's pillow fights are from the Sun Belt. I'm not targeting that conference intentionally ... it's just that bad. To be fair, WKU isn't officially in the Sun Belt until next season.

Bowl Watch

On the bowl front, Penn State, Utah, and Ball State have all secured bowl berths with their 7-0 starts. Texas (6-0), Alabama (6-0), Oklahoma State (6-0), Michigan State (6-1), BYU (6-0), Ohio State (6-1), Tulsa (6-0), Minnesota (6-1), TCU (6-1), and Western Michigan (6-1) are now bowl eligible. That brings the number of eligible teams to 13. There are still 55 teams needed to fill out the 34-game bowl schedule.

The winner of the Vanderbilt/Georgia and Kansas/Oklahoma games this weekend will become bowl eligible. Other teams with an opportunity to secure bowl eligibility this weekend are: Boise State (5-0), Texas Tech (6-0), Missouri (5-1), USF (5-1), Virginia Tech (5-1), North Carolina (5-1), Connecticut (5-1), Northwestern (5-1), South Carolina (5-2).

Technically, no one is out of bowl consideration yet. However, SMU (1-6), Washington State (1-6), Kent State (1-6), UAB (1-6), Idaho (1-6), and North Texas (0-6) have to win out to be eligible for a bowl game.

Note: Western Kentucky (2-5) is not eligible for a bowl game this season as they are in their final year of transition from the FCS to the FBS.

All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.

New Site Up And Running

2008-09-03T07:54:00.000-07:00

Due to the re-launching of RogersPoll.com, you may notice that much of the content that you were able to find here in the past has been removed. Much of the content that you have come to expect from this site (polls, strength of schedule rankings, conference power rankings, projections, etc.) can be found at the parent site. This site will now be used as a blog to post thoughts and opinions.

Thank you for your continued interest. As always, if you would like to contact me directly, feel free to do so by e-mail at jonrogers@rogerspoll.com.

The Final Four Is A Perfect Fit

2008-04-03T13:57:00.000-07:00

For the first time in history, all four #1-seeds have made it through the first four rounds of the tournament unscathed to collectively arrive at the Final Four. On one side of the bracket, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks will compete for the right to play for the national championship. On the other side of the bracket, the Memphis Tigers and UCLA Bruins will do battle.

These four programs have proven all season that they deserve this chance. The NCAA selection committee agreed when they handed out top seeds to each. The numbers agree as well. Though I will not release a complete poll until after every game in the tournament is played, my real-time rankings have Memphis (37-1) ranked #1, followed by UCLA (35-3), North Carolina (36-2), and Kansas (35-3). The top ten is rounded out by Wisconsin (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Texas (31-7, exited in the Elite Eight), Tennessee (31-5, exited in the Sweet Sixteen), Duke (28-6, exited in the second round), Louisville (27-9, exited in the Elite Eight), and Georgetown (28-6, exited in the second round).

In addition, I have two other ranking models that I use, though I do not release them publicly. They are referred to as the Q-score indicator and P-score indicator. These models were designed specifically for predicting game outcomes. At present, Memphis is #1 in the Q-score rankings (.7676), followed by North Carolina (.7559), Kansas (.7362), and UCLA (.7256). Memphis is also ranked #1 by the P-score indicator (.7691), followed by Kansas (.7651), North Carolina (.7559), and UCLA (.7455).

No matter how you look at it, the four most deserving programs will be competing in San Antonio for the National Championship.

It is interesting, however, that Kansas has been fortunate enough to have other teams doing their dirty work for them thus far. They've knocked off the 16-seed (Portland State), the 9-seed (Kent State), the 12-seed (Villanova), and the 10-seed (Davidson). Their bracket had Wisconsin, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Clemson, USC, Gonzaga, and UNLV, yet Kansas didn't have to face any of them. Has a team ever made the Final Four without facing an 8-seed or higher?

Opinion: Roadmap for Conference USA

2008-03-25T16:32:00.000-07:00

Mike Slive, the original commissioner for Conference USA, played a major role in creating one of the seven best conferences in the nation for all sports. By the end of his tenure, the football schools included: Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU, East Carolina, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB, and Army. Of that group, only Army was a football-only member, as the rest were C-USA hoops programs also. Joining them in basketball were Marquette, DePaul, Charlotte, and St. Louis.

C-USA routinely had representation in the Top 25 for football, men's basketball, women's basketball, and baseball. Furthermore, C-USA routinely boasted big wins over the nation's elite programs and sent multiple teams to postseason play on an annual basis. Slive did such a good job establishing C-USA that the SEC came calling when their commissioner role became available.

Conference USA then hired Britton Banowsky. The conference he inherited was a strong one with a lot of potential for future growth and success. Unfortunately, in the horizon was a conference realignment that would shake C-USA at its very core.

The ACC opted to expand from 9 teams to 12, becoming eligible for a football championship game and hoping to create the next mega-conference. Their targets were three premier Big East members (Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College). The Big East was left with their six non-football playing members (Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Providence, and Seton Hall), five football playing members (Syracuse, West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and Temple), and Connecticut (already in for basketball and scheduled to join for football). Temple had already been voted out.

The easiest things for the Big East to do were to advance the schedule for Connecticut's entry into the league for football and slip the schedule for Temple's departure. However, this still left a need for football members. In addition to that, the non-football playing members were adamant about equal representation. Thus, for every football-playing member added after the first one, there had to also be an additional non-football playing member added.

Based on what Mike Slive had created, C-USA was the obvious target for Big East replacement schools. Louisville was the obvious first choice. After that, two all-sports programs (Cincinnati and South Florida) were gobbled up as were two non-football playing schools (Marquette and DePaul). This left C-USA with just two non-football playing members (Charlotte and St. Louis), and both wanted out as a result. C-USA and the Big East worked together to place those programs in the Atlantic 10.

As if the loss of those seven programs wasn't bad enough, Army had already voted to return to independent status for football. Additionally, TCU accepted an invitation to join the Mountain West conference amid all the turmoil C-USA was experiencing. In all, C-USA lost nine schools (five of its eleven football members and eight of its fourteen basketball members).

Banowsky sat by while his conference was raided and reacted after it was all said and done. He and the six remaining C-USA schools (East Carolina, Houston, Tulane, Southern Miss, UAB, and Memphis) moved towards a 12-school all-sports conference with a southern footprint. The result was the addition of UCF, Marshall, Rice, Tulsa, SMU, and UTEP. The six new members brought with them one school that had experienced notable recent success in football (Marshall) and none that had experienced notable recent success in basketball. The entire hope for the future of the conference was based on potential. How much potential there was is still up for debate.

Banowsky has certainly bragged about the league's accomplishments under his reign. The addition of six new members, alliances with six bowl games, and a 'lucrative' television agreement with CSTV headline that list. Unfortunately, those six new members are far weaker than the nine schools that departed, the bowl games (with the exception of the Liberty Bowl) are all lower-tier games, and CSTV is a floundering network with few subscribers and little availability.

Looking back, it would have been great for C-USA had a strong leader been in place during the shake-up caused by the ACC. A strong commissioner may have been able to leverage the turmoil the Big East was dealing with in order to attract one of their premier programs (e.g. West Virginia) to jump ship and come to C-USA. Such a move would have almost guaranteed that programs like Louisville, Cincinnati, and TCU would have stayed put. It would have also weakened the Big East and put C-USA on a strong enough footing to usurp the Big East for its automatic BCS berth status.

Even if that ideal scenario didn't play out, a strong leader could have targeted the best programs available. Needless to say, the programs that joined C-USA after the shake-up were not among such a list. Given C-USA's status at the time, it is safe to say that any program from outside the six BCS conferences and the Mountain West were approachable. Instead of an all-sports conference, the league should've looked to include both flavors (football and basketball schools). Doing such may have allowed the conference to keep Charlotte and Saint Louis.

In the end, Banowsky dropped the ball and tried to recreate the lower half of the old Southwest Conference for his new Western division (which expands as far as El Paso in the westernmost part of Texas) while joining four of his mainstays with MAC defectors, UCF and Marshall, in his new Eastern division (which expands as far as the coast of North Carolina). As a result of the newly configured league, the conference has steadily dropped in performance for both football and basketball.

What happened was unfortunate, but it can not be changed now. At this point, all stakeholders in C-USA should be concerned with what can be done to improve the fortunes of the league. Knowing that East Carolina, UCF, and Memphis are likely targets of the next Big East expansion (should it happen) must be at the forefront of the league's planning. It would certainly pay for the league to be more proactive to an impending raid than reactive, like last time.

What should be done, though? Well, C-USA no longer has the luxury of boasting a relatively lofty status in the collegiate landscape. So, attempts to recapture programs like Charlotte or St. Louis from a conference as strong as the A-10 are virtually out of the question. With regards to football, however, the status is the same as it's been since the shake-up. Only programs from the six BCS conferences and the Mountain West are untouchable. That said, here's what I would recommend for increasing the conference's profile and protecting the league against future losses.

(1) Vote to expand to 18 programs total, to potentially include non-football playing members, consisting of two sub-leagues (East and West) where each sub-league can be self-contained in many respects. This would tighten the geographic footprint that must be traveled for all sports. Conference championship events would still include representatives from each sub-league.

(2) The East sub-league would consist of five current members (East Carolina, UCF, UAB, Southern Miss and Marshall) plus four target institutions. Those target institutions would consist of Navy, Army, Troy, and Western Kentucky. Contingency targets would consist of Temple, Middle Tennessee, and FAU. Any of these schools would contribute to a sounder geographic footprint. Navy and Army add prestige, Navy and Troy add football prowess, and Western Kentucky adds basketball prowess with strong potential for a quality football program at the FBS level.

(3) The West sub-league would consist of seven current members (Memphis, Tulane, Houston, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, and UTEP) plus two target institutions. Those target institutions would consist of Fresno State and Boise State. Contingency targets would consist of Nevada and Louisiana Tech. Though Fresno and Boise would obviously expand the footprint of the league well past Texas, they would still be worth adding for the overall prestige and football prowess they would add to the conference.

Ultimately, there are many other plans that warrant as much or more merit than the one presented above. Simply put, there are enough options out there such that C-USA should be considering something. Banowsky would be remiss if he failed to be proactive this time around.

98% Success: 64 of the 65 Tournament Teams Projected Correctly

2008-03-17T23:00:00.000-07:00

In my post prior to any games being played on Selection Sunday, I revealed my anticipated field of 65. I had Ohio State in, but I noted a contingency that would put them out should Georgia win the SEC title. Georgia did indeed win the SEC. Thus, I had 64 of the 65 teams projected correctly (33 of the 34 at-larges, 97%). The only mistake I made in projecting who would get in was by putting New Mexico of the Mountain West in over Oregon of the Pac-10.

With regards to seedings, I correctly placed 21 teams. I was off by only one seed on another 25 teams. So, I placed teams within one seed of their actual NCAA seeding 71% of the time. I was two seeds off for 6 teams, three seeds off for 8 teams, and missed 4 others by more than three seeds.

Who received the biggest bumps by the selection committee?

Oklahoma (22-11, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #13): Though Oklahoma did play the 12th toughest schedule in the country, I only had them ranked #69. The Sooners had a losing record away from home (7-8), a losing record against my top 100 (9-10), squeaked out 5 close wins, were only 7-5 down the stretch, and failed to capture a signature victory. Their best win was at home against my #24, Gonzaga. The last time we saw the Sooners in action, they were pummeled 77-49 by Texas in the Big XII tournament.

Oregon (18-13, NCAA #9, Rogers Poll n/a): The Ducks were the only team to make the field despite not being projected in by me. I did, however, have Oregon ranked #60 and listed as one of my top eight out. The fact remains that this team didn't put together a strong enough resume to warrant inclusion. They had a losing record in conference (9-10), had a non-winning record down the stretch (6-6), were a miserable 5-10 away from home, and had a losing record against my top 100 (9-12). Their schedule was tough (#23), but they failed to capture more than a handful of good wins.

Washington State (24-8, NCAA #4, Rogers Poll #9): The Cougars are a good team, but not an elite team, as their #4 seed in the NCAA tournament implies. I have them ranked #34, having played the 39th toughest schedule. They were an impressive 11-4 away from Pullman and proved they could beat good teams consistently as they were 13-7 against my top 100. However, they were 3-7 against the top 50, posted a modest 7-5 record at season's end, and defeated only one top 25 team (#24 Gonzaga). With all of that said, I expect them to be a dangerous team in the tournament with a real chance to get to the Sweet 16.

USC (21-11, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #9): The Men of Troy came a long way from their season opening loss to Mercer (11-19, #291). They managed a 20+ win season and a 12-8 record in the nation's best conference despite playing the 6th toughest schedule. They also pulled out signature victories over #2 UCLA and #16 Stanford. Outside of those two big wins though, they were 1-8 against the top 50. This team is definitely deserving of an at-large bid and a single-digit seeding. However, handing them a 6-seed implies they are a top 25 team. Compare their resumes to the top 25 ... it just doesn't add up.

Miami (22-10, NCAA #7, Rogers Poll #10): The Hurricanes finished the season ranked #41 by me, playing a relatively mild schedule (#68) and posting a non-winning record in ACC play (9-9). They also benefited from 5 close wins. They lost 4 games to teams outside of my top 100, including two against teams ranked lower than 170 (Boston College and NC State). They can boast a solid home win against #6 Duke, but they have no further wins against the top 25. The last time we saw them, they were dominated, 63-49, by Virginia Tech, a team that failed to make the NCAA tournament.

Mississippi State (22-10, NCAA #8, Rogers Poll #11): The Bulldogs finished the season ranked #48 by me having played the #47 schedule. With their 22-win season, 13-5 mark in the SEC, and 8-4 record down the stretch, they were obviously deserving of an at-large berth. However, the selection committee granted them seed favoring a berth in the second round. Their best win of the season was against #32 Arkansas and their best road win of the year was at #71 Florida. For a team that was 4-9 against the top 100, you have to question whether or not they really deserved it.

San Diego (21-13, NCAA #13, Rogers Poll #16): The Toreros won the WCC tournament and ensured 3-bids for their league. Boasting a 21-win season, a 14-3 ledger in conference play, two wins over St. Mary's, a win over Gonzaga, a win over Kentucky, and a 10-2 record to conclude the year sure makes them look good on the surface. However, they played in the 23rd ranked conference, posted an 8-8 record away from home, lost to #310 Cal State Bakersfield (8-21) at home, and were 4-11 against the top 100. They beat up on little guys, going 17-2 against teams outside the top 100.

Who received the biggest shafts by the selection committee?

New Mexico (24-8, NCAA n/a, Rogers Poll #10): The Lobos were the one team I projected into the tournament that did not get the nod from the selection committee. They finished the year ranked #39 in my rankings, despite playing a weak schedule (#139). The strongest argument for them was their run at season's end. They were 8-2 in their last ten, with both losses coming in overtime to good teams (#13 BYU and Utah). They also captured a 59-45 win over #26 UNLV in their home finale.

BYU (27-7, NCAA #8, Rogers Poll #4): The decision by the selection committee to seed the Cougars so low may be the biggest insult of all. The Cougars posted a 27-win season, including a 16-3 mark in the nation's 7th best conference, were 10-2 down the stretch, 11-6 away from home, 8-7 against the top 100, defeated #10 Louisville, #26 UNLV, and #39 New Mexico twice. They only lost to one team all season that failed to post 20 wins (Wake Forest, 17-13). Many will point to their schedule (#115), but they did not slip up against a weak opponent and they proved time and time again that they could beat good ones.

Western Kentucky (27-6, NCAA #12, Rogers Poll #8): Though they played in the 13th ranked Sun Belt, their only 2 losses in conference play came to #27 South Alabama. Furthermore, they took home the conference tournament championship. They were 11-1 down the stretch with a lone 5-point loss to 26-6 USA. They were an amazing 14-5 away from Bowling Green. The thing that ultimately cost them, however, was their weak schedule (#169) and only one quality win out-of-conference (overtime against 19-12 Nebraska).

Marquette (24-9, NCAA #6, Rogers Poll #3): The Golden Eagles finished the season #11 in my rankings, played the #31 schedule, had a winning record away from home, posted 5 wins over the top 50, and posted a 13-8 record in the Big East (which sent 8 teams to the NCAA tournament). Three of their nine losses came by 4 points or less to #6 Duke, #21 Notre Dame, and #9 Georgetown. They can also boast road wins over #3 Wisconsin and Villanova, a neutral site win over #21 Notre Dame, and home wins against #21 Notre Dame, and the Big East tournament champions, #19 Pittsburgh.

St. Mary's (25-6, NCAA #10, Rogers Poll #7): The Gaels are my #22 team, having handed #17 Drake one of their only four losses, in addition to key wins over a Pac-10 at-large team, Oregon, conference rival, #24 Gonzaga, and Big West champion, Cal State Fullerton. In all, they hold a 6-4 record against the top 100. Additionally, they posted a 10-5 record away from home and an 8-4 mark down the stretch. They pushed San Diego to overtime in the conference championship game, and lost only once to a non-20-win team (Southern Illinois, 17-14).

South Alabama (26-6, NCAA #10, Rogers Poll #7): The Jaguars end up my #27 ranked team. Of their six losses, four were by four points or less. In all, they only played 5 games against the top 50, but were 3-2 in those match-ups, defeating Mississippi State and Western Kentucky twice. The two losses against the top 50 were both by 3 points, on the road against SEC opponents (Ole Miss and #18 Vanderbilt). So, there is no question that they can compete at a high level. They were 9-5 away from home and 9-3 in the stretch run. They have the potential to make a run in the tournament.

Cornell (22-5, NCAA #14, Rogers Poll #11): Apparently, it's fashionable to seed the Ivy League representative low. However, the Big Red are not the typical Ivy team. They were 14-0 in league play, 10-4 away from home, and finished the year as my #42 team. They did play a very weak schedule (#320), but they proved they could play at a higher level, going 3-3 against the top 100, including a win over 22-10 Siena. Among their five losses on the season were road trips to Syracuse and #6 Duke.

The play-in game is not between the two worst entries

Finally, I want to make note of the selection committee's not-so-subtle decision to put Mount St. Mary's in the play-in game. Since the inception of the play-in game, the major opponents of its existence have pointed to its seemingly inherent purpose of pitting the conference champions from the two Historically Black College and University (HBCU) leagues, the SWAC and the MEAC. This year, there is no question that a merit based decision would have done exactly that, with Coppin State and Mississippi Valley State squaring off for the right to play North Carolina in the opening round. However, the committee opted to replace the Delta Devils with Mount St. Mary's. I guess they hoped no one would notice or care. I'm sure they are probably right about the latter.

Sizing Up The NCAA Tournament Field

2008-03-16T03:30:00.000-07:00

I have been keeping an eye on the NCAA tournament (who the automatic bids are going to, who are the locks for grabbing at-large bids, who the bubble teams are, who needs a miracle, and those who are just plain out at this point). You can see a full breakdown of every team by checking out my NCAA Tournament Watch.

With only five conference championship games remaining, here is how I predict the NCAA tournament selection committee will hand out seeds. After I have revealed my anticipated field, I will present contingencies based on alternate results of the five pending games.

#1 seeds: Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin, North Carolina
#2 seeds: Tennessee, Texas, Duke, Georgetown
#3 seeds: Louisville, Kansas, Marquette, Xavier
#4 seeds: BYU, Connecticut, Purdue, Stanford

#5 seeds: Drake, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Butler
#6 seeds: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Clemson, Gonzaga
#7 seeds: St. Mary's, Indiana, UNLV, South Alabama
#8 seeds: West Virginia, Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Davidson

#9 seeds: Texas A&M, Washington State, Kent State, USC
#10 seeds: New Mexico, Kentucky, Miami, Kansas State
#11 seeds: Cornell, St. Joseph's, Arizona, Mississippi State
#12 seeds: Siena, Temple, Cal State Fullerton, Oral Roberts

#13 seeds: Baylor, Villanova, Oklahoma, Ohio State
#14 seeds: George Mason, Winthrop, Belmont, Boise State
#15 seeds: Austin Peay, Portland State, Texas-Arlington, UMBC
#16 seeds: American, San Diego, Mount St. Mary's
Play-in Game: Mississippi Valley State vs. Coppin State

IF Clemson defeats North Carolina, Clemson will likely improve to a top four seed. North Carolina will likely hold on to a number one seed.

IF Kansas defeats Texas, both will probably be two seeds, knocking Georgetown down to a number three seed.

IF Georgia defeats Arkansas, Georgia would make the tournament likely as a 14-seed and knock out a bubble team (most likely Ohio State). Arkansas would likely remain an eight seed, but may fall to a nine seed.

IF Northwestern State defeats Texas-Arlington, they would enter the tournament as a 16-seed while Texas-Arlington would fail to make the field.

IF Illinois defeats Wisconsin, they would enter the tournament likely as a 14-seed and knock out a bubble team (most likely Ohio State). Wisconsin would most likely fall from a top seed to a three seed.