Rob's World

North Korea Watch: If It's Broke ...

2009-11-02T18:10:00.000-08:00

According to Reuters, Kim Jong-il's vow turn North Korea into a "strong and prosperous nation" by 2012, the 100th anniversary of his father's birth, is going seriously crimp his brinkmanship.

"This puts pressure on the regime to get as much aid as it can, as fast as it can," said B.R. Myers, an expert on the North's state ideology at Dongseo University in South Korea.
"To say that it will be a strong and prosperous country and to say that will be achieved by 2012, and to raise expectations, is actually a very risky thing."

For some time now North Korea has played the same game, which is to make a concession and then rattle a saber, thus maintaining the status quo. This piece suggests that Kim's hopes for 2012, which also when he may announce that his youngest son will succeed him, may make this game untenable. Perhaps more concessions from NK are coming.

Currently, North Korea has an economy worth $17 billion, 2 percent of South Korea's.

Adventist Today column

2009-11-01T18:29:00.000-08:00

I'm on the Adventist Today website again.

Andre's Book

2009-10-28T21:57:00.000-07:00

A day after the story broke of his meth use, Andre Agassi explains why he wrote his autobiography.

Thanks!

2009-10-28T03:28:00.000-07:00

Just so you know, I'm thankful for all eight of you who follow here.

Why? Well, according to this, I break pretty much every rule of popular blogging.

I suspected as much. Maybe in my next incarnation I'll narrow the focus a bit. Maybe the politically satirical musings of Korea's tennis pros.

The Irish Example

2009-10-25T22:19:00.000-07:00

On Wednesday I covered a speech by the Irish ambassador on how his country has overcome economic difficulties in the past. You can read it here.

5 Myths About Iran

2009-10-20T21:14:00.000-07:00

In The Washington Post, Joseph Cirincione enlightens readers regarding five myths about Iran's nuclear "threat."

1. Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran could kick out U.N. inspectors, abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty and reprocess the gas into highly enriched uranium in about six months; it would take at least six more months to convert that uranium into the metal form required for one bomb. Technical problems with both processes could stretch this period to three years. Finally, Iran would need perhaps five additional years -- and several explosive tests -- to develop a Hiroshima-yield bomb that could be fitted onto a ballistic missile.

2. A military strike would knock out Iran's program.

" ... after such a bombing, the Iranian population -- now skeptical of its leadership -- would probably rally around the regime, ending any internal debates on whether to build a bomb. Iran would put its nuclear program on fast-forward to create weapons to defend itself. It could also counterattack against Israel or other U.S. allies. This month, a top official of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to "blow up the heart of Israel" if the United States or Israel attacks first."

3. We can cripple Iran with sanctions.

"Some mix of sanctions -- whether restricting travel, making it harder for Iranian banks to do business, further limiting foreign investment or even denying Iranian citizens basic needs, such as gas -- may be necessary if Tehran does not restrain its nuclear program or live up to its pledges. But the key is to couple such pressure with a face-saving way out for the Iranian leadership. As the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran put it, a sanctions strategy must feature "opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways." These could include Iran's inclusion in regional security talks, the suspension of sanctions and a secure supply of reactor fuel, leading up to normalized relations with the West."

4. A new government in Iran would abandon the nuclear program.

Some believe that an irrational, apocalyptic government now rules Iran and that regime change is the only solution. But there is broad support across Iran's political spectrum for the right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

5. Iran is the main nuclear threat in the Middle East.

The real danger is not a nuclear-armed Iran but a Middle East with more nuclear-armed nations and unresolved territorial, economic and political disputes. That is a recipe for disaster, and that is why there is no country-specific solution; we cannot play nuclear whack-a-mole.

Investing in Korea

2009-10-17T20:35:00.001-07:00

To read my story on how to make investments in Korea, click here.

To read my interview with international investment guru Jim Rogers on why he won't make investments in Korea, click here.

North Korea Watch: Naval Clash Impending?

2009-10-15T01:58:00.000-07:00

This made the front page at Yahoo! News, so I guess this is as good a time as any to revive North Korea watch.

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea warned South Korea on Thursday that a rash of "reckless" incursions at their disputed maritime border could spark a naval clash.

North Korea's navy accused South Korean warships of routinely broaching its territory — 10 times on Monday alone — in the waters off the peninsula's west coast.

"The reckless military provocations by warships of the South Korean navy have created such a serious situation that a naval clash may break out between the two sides in these waters," the military said in a statement carried Thursday by the North's official Korean Central News Agency.

This, despite the fact that North Korea issued a statement of "regret" for releasing flood waters that killed six Koreans and that talks are to start tomorrow on whether the South will provide aid and the North agree to more family reunions.

And the cycle continues. The North has threatened conflicts of this sort before (and even carried them out) but it is no prelude to war. North Korea opens one hand even has makes a fist with the other, and this will not change as long as it continues to extract aid from the United States and its Southern neighbor.

Obama No Socialist

2009-10-08T05:06:00.001-07:00

Obama's policies are not free market, but not socialist either, as no less than Reason magazine says here.

The keeper, really, is this sentence: "There is plenty to oppose in what Obama wants to do. But can we not be stupid about it?"

Unwed Mothers in Korea

2009-10-07T23:23:00.000-07:00

The New York Times has this piece about the Korean Unwed Mothers Support Network. Only about 1.6 percent of births reported in 2007 came to unwed mothers here (compared to about 40 in the United States), but those mothers who do have a baby out of wedlock face a lifelong stigma.

Eight Years in Afghanistan

2009-10-07T19:32:00.000-07:00

Glenn Greenwald, Arianna Huffington discuss Iran

2009-10-01T19:47:00.000-07:00

Glenn Greenwald is the man.

Eyes Wide Shut on Iran

2009-10-01T19:34:00.000-07:00

This piece in the Columbia Journalism Review takes the major networks to task for failing to diversify their sources, falling back on those all to willing to promote bombing, including (sigh) Tom Friedman.

"the only thing the Arabs are afraid of more than an Israeli strike is the absence of an Israeli strike. I guarantee you one thing, George, if the Israelis do decide to strike against Iran, there’s going to be a lot of Arab radar off that day. “Oh Ahmed, you forgot to turn the radar on? Shame on you!” That’s really what they’re rooting for."

After calling the Iraq war an "audacious roll of the dice," why would anyone listen to this guy's opinion's on foreign policy again? Marc Lynch and Glenn Greenwald are the pundits we need to hear more from.

Adventist Today

2009-09-30T20:57:00.001-07:00

As of today, I am a featured columnist in Adventist Today.com. This is my first piece.

What the Numbers Say About Iran

2009-09-29T20:02:00.000-07:00

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North Korea Watch: Left Behind

2009-09-29T19:10:00.000-07:00

According to this, Iran has left North Korea "far behind" in terms of its ability to launch missiles at a further distance.

Of course, since I remain dubious about Iran's intentions and capabilities, that should actually say something about North Korea's lack thereof.

Paul on Iran

2009-09-28T19:21:00.000-07:00

I never thought I'd say this, but if Bush had revealed that he'd known about a nuclear facility for years before it was publicized, he'd be excoriated, not praised by Andrew Sullivan for his "mojo" or at the Huffington Post for "outmaneuvering" Iran.

Iran Facility No Surprise

2009-09-28T18:34:00.000-07:00

Our government has known about the "secret" facility in Iran for years, as this points out.

"The United States was aware of Iran’s unfinished uranium enrichment site for several years, senior U.S. officials told CNN on Friday. U.S. officials have known about the facility since President George W. Bush’s administration, according to the officials who declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the negotiations."

And despite what you'll hear in the news, "(a) the Qom facility is not operational and (b) there is no evidence it is being used to create a nuclear weapon."

Gaymer Appointed ATEK Communications Director

2009-09-27T21:12:00.000-07:00

Dann Gaymer, 22, of the United Kingdom has been named the communications director for the Association of English Teachers in Korea (ATEK).

His appointment follows the election of previous communications director Greg Dolezal as ATEK president earlier in September.

Dann and I have never met, but he was contributed a number of articles to The Herald.

ATEK sent out the following press release this morning announcing his appointment:

(Daegu, South Korea)— The Association for Teachers of English in Korea (ATEK) has nominated Dann Gaymer as its new communications director.
The nomination follows former communications director Greg Dolezal election as President of ATEK earlier this month.

Dann Gaymer, 22, is a British citizen who has been living and working in Deagu, South Korea since August 2008. He has a bachelors degree in Social Anthropology from the University of Kent, where he also worked as a part time as a research assistant. After graduating he came to Korea to be an English teacher yet at the same time began writing for publications across the nation, including the Korea Herald, the Youngnam Ilbo and Eloquence Magazine.

"We are excited about Dann taking on this role as we anticipate he will help strengthen ATEK's image and give a strong voice for our members" said Dolezal with regards to the nomination.
Dolezal was elected on a platform of building a grass roots foundation for the organization by increasing membership and electing regional leaders as opposed to primarily focusing on advocacy and human rights work.
In August, Tom Rainey-Smith, a founder of ATEK, stepped down as acting president so that a democratic election could take place, overseen by an election committee appointed by the ATEK national council, which was seated on July 1.
Speaking of his appointment as communications director, Gaymer said, "I'm honored to be able to play such important role in ATEK. We have a lot of work ahead of us but I feel its work worth doing because it will hopefully illicit positive changes for both present and future members of ATEK and English teachers throughout South Korea."

Since launching in March, The Association for Teachers of English in Korea (ATEK), a professional organization that provides support services for foreign teachers, has attracted nearly 1,000 members across South Korea and has prompted the formation of numerous local teachers' associations.

ATEK's past achievements include the “Equal Checks for All Campaign” which was launched to as a way for workers on E2 visas to communicate their grievances against the imposition of discriminatory visa regulations, the filing of a complaint to the Korean Press Ethics Commission (KPEC) about the negative bias against ex-pat teachers in the media and, with help from the Seoul Global Center (SGC), the publishing of 'The English Teacher’s Guide to Korea', a teacher's guidebook/manual.

In his new role Gaymer's responsibilities will include monitoring and commenting on articles relating to foreign teachers in the Korean media, improving the image of foreigners in Korea and establishing a dialogue with organizations representing Korean teachers and employers, such as the Korean hagwon association (KAFLA). He will also actively pursue expanding the Daegu chapter of ATEK.

Hysteria over Iran

2009-09-27T19:41:00.000-07:00

This is a couple of years old, but as we hear the drumbeat over Iran's new facility, it's worth remembering:

Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?

Daniel's 100th Day Party

2009-09-22T03:33:00.000-07:00

This past Sunday night was our party for Daniel's 100th day. Not so long ago Korea was a very impoverished country, and for a child to survive until his/her 100th day was a pretty big deal. Now that South Korea has the world's 15th-ranked GDP that situation has changed, thankfully, but the tradition is maintained.

So, Catherine, her mother, brother, myself and Daniel played host to several of their closest relatives in Seoul at an Indian restaurant. We received several gifts, though most of them were clothing for Daniel. Should be useful for a time.

To see more photos from the evening, click here.

ATEK's President

2009-09-15T07:06:00.000-07:00

I haven't been active much -- make that at all -- at this site for the past two weeks, as I've been providing exhaustive (and exhausing) coverage of the US Open for Bleacher Report.com, where I'm the tennis community leader. Since the open is now over, I should be back for good now.

What better way to come back with a bit of shameless self-promo about ATEK's new president? Click here.

North Korea Watch: How to Deal

2009-08-31T07:25:00.000-07:00

This piece in today's Korea Times sounds like good advice, especially the part about "bored contempt."

"Treat North Korean provocations with bored contempt. The U.S. needs to reward the North when it acts responsibly and punish or ignore it when it acts badly. Reprogramming the DPRK won't be easy, but the regime has been on markedly better behavior over the last month than previously. For that Washington and other nations should respond favorably."

North Korea's threats, when matched with its actions in recent years, are deserving of nothing more.

North Korea Watch: Talks Underway

2009-08-26T05:36:00.000-07:00

North-South Korean talks on reuniting families are underway, the AP reports.

The story doesn't have much else to offer, aside from background, but it says the talks are taking place at the North's Diamond Mountain resort. We'll stay up to date on this development.

Federer's Reading List

2009-08-25T03:08:00.000-07:00

The Roger Federer fans at Bleacher Report were ecstatic to report that my wrap-up (or at least part of it) had appeared on Federer's own site today.

Me? I'm cool with it.