Mississauga Real Estate, Homes, TREB & MLS Blog by Mark Argentino

Interesting perpestive on the stock market

2009-11-21T07:45:00.001-05:00

I have a friend who is seriously involved with the stock market and analysis of the economy. He sent me the following analysis, what do you think?

Thanks

Mark

Dear Mark

Additional info:
Remember when you bought stocks, oil and gold in
December 2008 - you shorted US$.
Now it's going the other way.
There is no other way.
US$ down everything up,
US$ up everything down.
However, since China will not allow the US to destroy the US$ (as they spend to oblivion)
the yuan is pegged to the US$ - unchanged for years
(since China announced they were getting out of US$ -
September 2007) - but they did the opposite.
That was the day C$ hit US$1.1.

You will notice that the whole market did not bottom until
March 9, 2009 when the C$ also bottomed,
but gold bottomed first in December.
Conversely, the top for the market was in September 2007 (when C$ hit US$1.1).
Same thing happened in 1999-2000.
Gold bottomed after September 2001 -
when they cut interest rates.
Just like the 1970s.
Not to mention 1930s.
Now interest rates are at 0% - just like Japan since 1991.
But, mortgage rates did go up.

"Investors" have a short memory.

The economy is not gettting better (affecting politics!):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6902932.ece

Based on the charts for currencies (US$/C$/Euro/Sfr/yuan/Ruble),
gold, oil, real estate, technology, financials,
This recession will last forever,
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner101209.html

which DOES NOT mean you cannot make money in the stock market -
you just have to be patient and disciplined
and you need to understand what you are doing.

Do you actually know what mutual funds hold?
I bet even the conservative ones hold stocks
(to boost returns).
Notice how financial experts, analysts, stockbrokers, politicians...
always buy - almost nobody sells!
Good luck.

National Housing Outlook In Detail

2009-11-20T07:45:00.000-05:00

This is another in a series of articles from CMHC talking about the country and the housing outlook

National Housing Outlook In Detail

While activity has picked-up in recent months, when compared to low levels in the first half of 2009, housing starts will still decrease to 141,900 units this year compared to 211,056 in 2008.

Housing starts will increase to 164,900 in 2010 as the economy strengthens. Given the degree of economic uncertainty, we have considered an array of economic
scenarios to generate a range for the housing outlook in 2009 and 2010.

Accordingly, we expect starts to be between 138,000 and 146,000 units in 2009 and between 135,000 and 190,000 units in 2010.

Housing starts were down in most provinces in the first half of 2009, however, activity is beginning to rebound and will continue to do so in the remainder of 2009 and into 2010.

Nevertheless, housing starts are forecast to decline in all ten provinces in 2009. Moving forward to 2010, growth will turn positive in nearly all provinces, with Western Canada leading the way.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
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Oprah Winfrey TV show to end September 9th, 2011

2009-11-19T20:49:00.000-05:00

Oprah Winfrey show to end September 9th, 2011

After many years on TV Oprah is finally ending her TV show and moving on
with things in her life. She is one of the wealthiest people on the planet,
good for her, time to spend with her family and friends and spreading the
wealth!
Oprah Winfrey will end her show after its 25th season wraps in 2011,
according to publicists for her production company, Harpo.

This confirmation comes after speculation that Winfrey could be moving the
popular syndicated talk show, which currently films in Chicago, to her new
cable network, OWN, which is based in Los Angeles.

Sources tell msnbc.com that Winfrey will host a new daily talk show on OWN,
and will also host specials for the network.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34050109/ns/entertainment-television/

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Oprah Winfrey will announce the end of her syndicated
talk show on tomorrow's broadcast as she plans to start a cable channel with
Discovery Communications Inc.

The television host will provide further details about her plans tomorrow,
Don Halcombe, a spokesman for Winfrey's Chicago- based Harpo Inc. production
company, said today in an interview.

"The Oprah Winfrey Show," syndicated by CBS Corp., helped make the
55-year-old entertainer one of the richest Americans, with a net worth of
$2.3 billion, according to Forbes magazine. It spawned an empire that
includes a magazine as well as film and television production. Winfrey
formed a venture in January 2008 to convert Discovery Health into the Oprah
Winfrey Network.

"We have the greatest respect for Oprah and wish her nothing but the best in
her future endeavors," New York-based CBS said in an e-mailed statement. "We
look forward to working with her for the next several years."

WABC in Chicago reported the story earlier. The last show will be in
September 2011, Tim Bennett, president of Harpo, said in a letter to
stations that carry the program.

Oprah's talk show began airing in 1986, according to the Internet Movie
Database.

CBS, owner of the most-watched U.S. broadcast network, fell 42 cents to
$13.31 today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have
gained 63 percent this year.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

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CREA national statistics for the country

2009-11-19T10:45:00.001-05:00

These are the national statistics on real estate activity across the country
for October 2009

Enjoy!
Mark

Units Sales
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity climbed 11.2 per cent in
April 2009 compared to the previous month. This is the largest
month-to-month increase in activity in more than five years. MLS(r) home
sales activity reached its highest level in seven months, with 34,838 units
trading hands nationally via the MLS(r) in April on a seasonally adjusted
basis.

The increase in April builds on gains of 10.3 per cent in February and 7.7
per cent in March. Seasonally adjusted activity now stands 32 per cent above
the lowest level in a decade that was recorded in January 2009.

Seasonally adjusted sales were up from March levels in 70 per cent of local
markets, with gains in Toronto (10 per cent), Vancouver (30 per cent),
Montreal (15 per cent), and Calgary (31 per cent) contributing most to the
overall increase in monthly activity.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS(r) home sales totaled 43,473 units in
April 2009, down 11.8 per cent from the same month one year ago.
Year-over-year declines have been shrinking since dropping a record 42.2 per
cent in November 2008.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Single-detached starts to move higher in 2010

2009-11-19T07:45:00.001-05:00

This is CMHC's prediction for the 2010 detached housing market, interesting to say the least!
Mark

Single-detached starts to move higher in 2010

Strong price growth in the past few years for single-detached housing has moderated the demand for this type of housing, and increased demand for less expensive multi-family housing.

The uncertain economic environment in late 2008 and early 2009 contributed to the downward trend in single starts. By the second quarter of 2009, however, single starts rebounded in most provinces.

Over the forecast horizon, this trend is expected to continue as more moderate prices make the singles market more attractive. After declining to 70,350 units in 2009, the number of single-detached housing starts will increase to 79,700 units in 2010.

By and large, starts of single-detached housing will continue to recover in the second half of 2009. Moving into 2010, all provinces will see an increase in the number of single-detached starts. In British Columbia, here employment growth is expected to be the strongest in the country, starts of single-detached homes will move up to 8,400 units, the largest percentage increase in the country for 2010.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
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CREA Report October a record breaking month for MLS resale housing market

2009-11-18T22:42:00.000-05:00

This is the latest report on the mls data for sales and activity for the
month of October across the country. It shows very interesting trends and
national averages.

Enjoy!
Mark

October a record breaking month for MLS(r) resale housing market
New records for the month were reported in about one-fifth of local markets

OTTAWA - November 16th, 2009 - According to The Canadian Real Estate
Association, sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of
October.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service(r) (MLS(r)) of
Canadian real estate boards numbered 42,288 units. This is up 41.5 per cent
compared to October 2008, when news of the global financial crisis hammered
consumer confidence. New records for the month were reported in about
one-fifth of local markets, including Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS(r) home sales totaled 45,818 units in
October 2009. This is two per cent higher than the previous record set in
May 2007, and 74 per cent above the recent low in January, when activity
fell to the lowest level in a decade. New monthly records for activity were
set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, which reflect record level
activity in Greater Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

Since the beginning of 2009, some 401,124 homes have traded hands via the
MLS(r) System. This is 1.6 per cent above the same period last year, but
below levels for this period in each of the previous three years.

"Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the
pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year," said CREA
President Dale Ripplinger. "The release of that pent-up demand has boosted
national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories."

The national MLS(r) residential average price also reached new heights in
October 2009. At $341,079, the average sale price was up 20.7 per cent from
the same month last year. The increase reflects the high degree to which the
national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant
decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the
rebound in activity.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS(r)
weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales
activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned
housing stock. It set a record in October, rising 14 per cent on a
year-over-year basis.

October also saw the MLS(r) residential average price in Canada's major
markets improve. At $373,095, the average sale price was up 22.1 per cent
from the same month last year. As with the national counterpart, the price
trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market MLS(r) weighted
average price which rose in October 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto the MLS(r) Systems of real
estate boards across Canada inched up on a month-over-month basis in October
to 65,148 units. New listings peaked in May 2008 and declined sharply until
March 2009. Since April 2009, new listings have held to within a range of
66,500 units, plus or minus 1800 units.

The sharp rise in resale housing demand has increasingly shrunk inventories.
There were 194,994 homes listed for sale on the MLS(r) Systems of real
estate boards in Canada at the end of October 2009. This is 20.8 per cent
below the peak reached one year ago, and the sixth month in a row in which
inventories are down from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in October 2009 on a
seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The
actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in October
2009 stood at 4.6 months, which is down slightly from the previous month
(4.9 months), and among the lowest of levels this year. The number of months
of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current
inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"New listings are still expected to rise in the coming months in response to
headline average price increases," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump.
"New supply dropped dramatically in December last year and earlier this year
in response to a difficult pricing environment. Sellers who moved to the
sidelines should be drawn back to the market as prices rise further over the
rest of the year and in early 2010."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both
major market and
national MLS(r) sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real
Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing
trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised
of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between
geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes
all housing types.

MLS(r) is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada's real estate
Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest
single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000
REALTORS(r) working through more than 100 real estate Boards and
Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/selling-process.htm> Thinking of Selling?
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<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/mortgage-rates-mark.htm> Current Home
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Why the housing market is on fire even in a recession - good question!

2009-11-18T16:17:00.000-05:00

I just watched a video interview with Garth Turner and his comments although convincing and foreshadowing as they seem, may not hold water in our current real estate market.

Watch the video here:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/lets-talk-investing/why-the-housing-market-is-on-fire-even-in-a-recession/article1365127/

Garth stated, amongst other things:

we are currently in an "asset bubble, people are delusional and nuts, lost a sense of reality, bidding beyond reality"

Garth feels the economy has surged too quick and said "we've recovered very quick, due to 3% mortgages, artificial environment, cheap money, politicians are saying recession is over and beyond us and this is artificially government created"

he feels that "interest rates are going up so the end is coming" that "sanity will come back into market, 1.5 million unemployed, businesses there because of dollars"

He made on e good point by stating in essence, "how sensible is it to buy over asking price, he feels it's crazy, that real estate is an expensive hobby, less than 15 minutes to buy a home, we exert less effort than a cell phone purchase, for half a million dollars, no conditions on inspection or financing, people are nuts, absolutely never should be doing this"

He makes some good points.

I too am a little worried about our overheated marketplace, low inventories and multiple offers, not good in the long term.

See this graph and guess where we are now:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm#graph

A mere 13 months ago we were at the point of panic and despondency. In January of this year, our local Mississauga real estate market (and most likely the GTA real estate market too) reached bottom, we were at the point of maximum financial opportunity. It looked like our real estate market and 2009 was headed for the pits, just like the US. I was uttering the words that I uttered in the years of our last recession, 1990 to 1994, the same words that many real estate agents were saying during the same time period, that was:

"Please God let there be another real estate boom and I promise not to p's (the slang word for 'urinate' but don't want to swear) away all my earnings like I did the last time" and that was how I was feeling and so were many other real estate agents last fall and early this year.

Not any more, real estate agents were euphoric for most of this year, the only complaint now is that you can't find any properties to sell to 10 buyers waiting to buy. That's not good!

I blogged about my worries, but month by month our market improved.

And here we are, skyrocketing prices, all time high prices on TREB and still people are buying.

When will it end? Maybe it won't, maybe it will just slow down a little and come back to a more 'normal' marketplace. Only time will tell, but be careful.

I wish you all the best!
Mark

CMHC predictions on Mortgage Rates, Employment, Income, Net Migration, Natural Population Increase, Resale Market and Vacancy Rates

2009-11-18T07:45:00.001-05:00

How do these 6 important key indicators affect our economy and what does CMHC predict for each of the next year, very interesting reading!
Mark
Mortgage Rates
Employment Income
Net Migration
Natural Population Increase
Resale Market
Vacancy Rates

Movements in mortgage rates are difficult to predict due to uncertain economic conditions. Nevertheless, rates are expected to remain steady this year and gradually rise over the course of 2010. Mortgage rates will remain very low in a historical context.

Due to the economic downturn of 2009, employment is expected to decrease this year. However, 2010 should see economic conditions improve, which will help employment turn back up in 2010.

Over the past few years, tight labour markets have put strong upward pressure on personal income growth. For 2009, softer labour markets will cause growth in wages and incomes to moderate. In 2010, income growth will strengthen, along with economic activity.

Net migration is forecast to decrease from record levels in 2008, but will remain relatively high. An improving job market will favour an increase in net migration for 2010.

The low birth rate is the major factor in the slowing of growth in the natural population (births minus deaths). This will lessen the demand for additional housing stock in the medium and longer term.

Sales on the existing home market have rebounded in 2009, which has caused markets to move from buyers’ to sellers’ conditions. While MLS® sales are expected to moderate from the near-record levels of the second and third quarters of 2009, sellers’ markets conditions will put upward pressure on house prices in 2009 and 2010.

Increased competition from the condo market and modest rental construction will be partly offset by rental demand. As a result, vacancy rates across

Canada’s metropolitan centres will remain relatively stable this year and next.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
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Current mortgage interest rates in the GTA

2009-11-17T20:05:00.000-05:00

This table shows the current mortgage interest rates that are posted and that are attainable in the marketplace as of Thursday November 12th

Enjoy!

Mark

TERM	POSTED	Obtainable RATES*
6 Month	4.6%	3.65%
1 Year	3.75%	2.66%
2 Year	4.05%	3.05%
3 Year	4.6%	3.47%
4 Year	5.29%	3.99%
5 Year	5.78%	3.99%
7 Year	6.6%	5.2%
10 Year	6.7%	5.3%
Variable Rate		2.15%
Prime Rate		2.25%

* Rates may vary and are subject to change without notice.
Rates Last Updated: Thursday, November 12, 2009

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
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CMHC's predictions on mortgage rates

2009-11-17T07:45:00.000-05:00

This is CMHC's prediction on mortgage rates in 2010
Trends Impacting Housing
Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010, unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year.

Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace.

For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
Power of Sales and Foreclosures
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Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar?

Sellers' market conditions are supporting stronger house prices

2009-11-16T07:45:00.001-05:00

CMHC is predicting a strong market for sellers in 2010
Sellers’ market conditions are supporting stronger house prices

The resale market began 2009 in buyers’ market territory in most markets across Canada. Slowing sales at the end of 2008, coupled with higher levels of new listings, moved many markets away from the sellers’ conditions that have been dominant over the past few years and into buyers’ market territory.

However, in recent months new listings have slowed while sales have increased.

This has moved many markets back into either balanced or sellers’ market conditions. Heading into 2010, balanced to sellers’ market conditions will continue to support growth in house prices.

The outlook for the national MLS® price will be affected by the swing in market conditions as well as changes in the geographical composition of sales.

In 2008, sales in Canada’s more expensive housing markets fell at a faster pace than other centres and this led to a sharp decline in the Canadian average MLS® price. In recent months though this trend has reversed, resulting in strong price increases in the second and third quarters of 2009. As a result, the average MLS® price in Canada will increase by 3.1 per cent to $312,950 in 2009 and by 3.7 per cent to $324,500 in 2010.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
Power of Sales and Foreclosures
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Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar?

CMHC housing report for Country and Ontario

2009-11-15T07:45:00.000-05:00

This is the latest housing report from CMHC and it indicates that resale prices moderated in 2008 but were strong in 2009

Housing starts: After a slow start in 2009, housing starts will become stronger by the end of 2009 and average 141,900 units. In 2010, starts will increase to approximately 164,900 units.

Resales: Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® MLS®) have become more robust since the start of 2009. The strong pace of resales reflects , in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters of 2009 and is likely not to be sustained. MLS® resales will be about 441,300 units for 2009, up from 433,990 units in 2008.

As far as 2010 is concerned, there will be approximately 445,150 units sold.

Resale prices: After a few years of strong gains, the average MLS® price moderated in 2008 to $303,607.

Recently, however, average prices have recovered. The average MLS® price is expected to increase to $312,950 in 2009 and to $324,500 in 2010.

Ontario: New home construction in Ontario will move lower to 47,400 units in 2009 while 2010 will see a strong improvement to 56,500 units.

Multiple-family starts will decrease in 2009 to 26,500 units before reaching 32,900 units in 2010.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
Power of Sales and Foreclosures
If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
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Breakdown of residential sales in the GTA as provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board

2009-11-14T12:33:00.000-05:00

The graph below shows the breakdown of residential sales in the GTA as
provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board

You can see that the majority of sales are detached homes, followed by Semi
Detached homes and then Condominium high-rise apartments

This is for the entire GTA
Enjoy!
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Housing market indicators in the Toronto and GTA marketplace

2009-11-13T12:33:00.001-05:00

The chart below shows you how the housing market is progressing compared to
the same month last year.

You can see that real estate sales are up about 64%, the number of active
listings is down significantly by about 46% and this is part of the reason
why our market is so 'hot' and prices are rising.

All of the above results in the days on the market decreasing by about 30%
from the same month last year, this is why we say the market is so 'fast'
right now.

All the best!
Mark

Graph showing ratio of sales to active listings in West GTA

2009-11-12T01:24:00.001-05:00

Notice that the ratio of sales to active listings was very low in the fall of 2008 and began to rise in about March April of 2009 and this is clearly seen in our marketplace. Back in the fall of 2008 only about 15 to 20% of active listings were selling, now it's up to about 55% and this is a very high number when compared from historic standards. The sales to listing ratio is typically about 40 to 45% which means that our market is very hot right now, which it is and also still means that about 40% or so of homes are still not selling.

Enjoy,

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

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CREA and Competition Commissioner decision

2009-11-10T11:05:00.000-05:00

Below is an email that we just received regarding the recent conclusions that the Commissioner of Competition in Canada released. In a nutshell, the commission concluded, among other items, that CREA and local boards must open their boards up to private listings for sale.

To say the above conclusions have created a "flashpoint" would be an understatement.

At any rate, here is our RE/MAX Ontario Atlantic VP and Regional Directors response on the matter below. It's the most clear and succinct information I've seen on this issue to date.

Enjoy!

Mark

To: RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Broker/Owners, Managers & Sales Associates:

I write to you today in response to various media reports that have transpired over the last week with respect to the inquiry by the Commissioner of Competition. Understandably there is some unrest and definitely many questions throughout our network with respect to whether this will affect our current business model and practices.

All that RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic knows about the issue between CREA and the Competition Bureau is what has been reported in the media and minor clarifications that have been made thereto.

It is our understanding that CREA has not made a decision yet as to how they will proceed as they are still waiting to receive further clarification on what exactly the proposed changes will entail.

We are actively monitoring the situation to determine what any actual change will be. So far this is what we have been able to determine.

CREA has been in communication with the Competition Bureau regarding the inquiry by the Commissioner of Competition into certain practices in the residential real estate brokerage industry in Canada. The Bureau has recently informed CREA of the Commissioner's conclusions.

CREA does not agree with the Commissioner's conclusions. CREA believes that the Bureau's concerns are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the way in which the rules of the MLS® system operate.
CREA has always indicated its desire to be responsive to concerns expressed by the Competition Bureau and to engage in productive dialogue with the Bureau. Although CREA believes that the Bureau's concerns about the MLS® rules the Bureau is focusing on are unfounded, it is evident that these concerns have become a flashpoint for the Bureau.
The Board of Directors of CREA has determined that it will pursue a consensual resolution with the Bureau, subject to member support. It is my understanding that discussions are ongoing and that it is CREA's intention to inform its members and stake holders of any proposed solution and seek member support before agreeing to any settlement.

Please note a decision has not been made and it is business as usual.

Sincerely,

Michael Polzler
Executive Vice President and Regional Director
RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc.

Number of Active listings is down

2009-11-10T09:24:00.001-05:00

The fact that the Number of Active listings is down puts pressure on the market and prices strictly from a supply and demand point of view, less listings, more interest and prices go up. This is what we have experienced in the past few months. Notice the number of active listings was high from about October 2008 to March 2009 and we did experience a softening of prices during the same period.

Thanks!

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

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I hit the SELL Button last Friday, and I'm elated!

2009-11-09T08:15:00.001-05:00

Last Friday, November 6 2009 I hit the 'sell' button. Not on our real estate holdings but on our RSP's and RESP's After the 'financial crisis' and market meltdown in the stock markets last September 2008 our RESP's and RSP's plummeted (as did most people) who were exposed to the stock market because their RSP's and RESP's were made up primarily of stocks.

Our entire stock portfolio dropped about 40% from a high in September of 2008 to a low in about April of 2009 I made a promise to my wife that when our RESP's and RSP's were back to or even close to or near pre-September highs, I would hit the sell signal.

I had set an arbitrary figure that if they reached that figure, we would sell. That figure was about 20% higher than our total contributions over the past 20 years or so in RESP's and RSP's, pretty sad return indeed in my opinion.

For anyone following the stock market's of late, the TSX and the DJIA are almost back to the high's of September, about 10% or so off the absolute high reached in late September 2009.

I set a fictitious figure that I would sell at and be comfortable and that figure "arrived" last Friday November 6, 2009. I called my financial planner Friday morning and said, "today is the day" and I called it ''freedom day', and sent in the sell signal.

The reason that I pulled all our RSP's and RESP's out of market linked mutual funds was because I was actually losing sleep over the ups and downs of the financial markets. Crazy isn't it?! I'm not fully retiring for about 14 years and probably won't need to use one cent of our RSP's for about 19 years from today, when I'm 70. That's plenty of time for the stock markets to rise back to historic high levels and likely surpass today's levels by 20 to 50 to 100% or more over the next 19 years. But, I just can't stomach the ups and downs of the financial and stock market's anymore.

We will begin withdrawing some of the RESP's beginning in about September of 2011 when our son begins university. These funds we just don't want to "gamble" with anymore. As you may know with RESP's in Canada, for every dollar we contribute the Federal Government contributes 20% It's almost a no brainer and a 20% return is guaranteed (almost). So for every thousand dollars we contributed that $1000 you would think in our RESP's would be worth $1000 plus 20% or $1200 plus the rise in the markets over the last 10 years or so which would make it about $1500 Not even close. We invested our RESP's into mostly US and global funds and we're sitting at about a total overall 10% increase over our personal contributions. Bleak, very bleak. Crappy investments, crappy market returns, crappy funds and crappy investment advice. Heck, if we only put the RESP's into GIC's over the same 10 to 15 years, every $1000 would be worth about $2000 today. But I was not wanting to be a wimp or a weak investor or a conservative investor because we had time on our side and I put it all of it into the markets to get that expected 10 to 15% per year. Again, not even close.

Hindsigh is 20/20 with everything, but with our RESP's we really blew it. If we were a conservative investor and only put them in GIC's we would have more than doubled our money. As of last Friday, when I cashed the RESP's we're up about 20%, not bad if you don't take into consideration the government 20% contributions, at least not a loss, but certainly not great.
You must be joking, that is crap, really crap, not a single % increase over 19 years of contributing, absolutely brutal when you think of it like that.

Financial planners and financial planners all say, that's good for the short term and besides, investing in the markets is a long term solution and you have to be aware and ready for sharp increases and decreases in your portfolio. What a crock. I'm done with that crap.

For example, with the RESP's Had we taken the same $1000 19 years ago when we began the RESP's or even 10 years ago and invested it in real estate, that same $1000 would be at least $2500 or $3000. It would have been leveraged investing and if we took, say $10,000 RESP and bought a $200,000 townhouse with it in 1999, that same townhouse would be worth about $275,000 today, so the initial $10,000 would have gone up by about $75,000 - significantly better than inside the RESP plan don't you think?

This same analysis can be found with our RSP's It's very depressing to think that we contributed all those funds over all those years and now it's not worth much more than 10 or 20% over all the contributions during the same period of time. Again, had we bought real estate 10 years ago with our RSP contributions rather than piled it into the markets we'd be up at least 200 to 300% because of the increase in real estate over the same period and the fact that it was leveraged investing.

Again, the pundits and financial planners will say that the RSP's gave a tax refund every year. That's true, but for self employed people like me, that only means we pay less tax in April, we don't get refunds. Regardless, for every $10000 I would have contributed in RSP's over the past 10 years, I would pay about $3500 less tax so for round figures contributions of 100k over the past 10 years contributions of $10,000 per year, that netted us $35000 in less tax paid, but I did not invest that 35000 that I gained, I just didn't have to pay it, and it got absorbed into our finances and spending.

Again, had I taken that $10,000 per year in RSP's contributions over the past 10 years and contributed it towards, for example, two townhomes, one townhouse purchase in year 3 (after 3 years of 10k per year equaling 30k in RSP's savings) which would have been 7 years ago or 2002 and another after 6 years of contributions, ( again, another 30k after 3 years of savings), that would have been a second purchase of a townhouse in 2005, the increase in value is absolutely astounding. The first townhouse purchase in 2002 would have cost us about 210,000 ( I just checked and that's what townhomes were selling for, for example, at 5305 Glen Erin Drive during 2002) and it would sell for about 275000 today, a gain of about 60,000 and the second purchase at, say the same complex, would have cost about $245000 in 2005 and selling
today, our gain would have been about $30000 so our total gain of our two investments totaling $60,000 investment would have been $90,000 (60,000+30,000) or about 1.5 times the initial value investment or 150% return, plus we would have the $40,000 in cash for the last 4 years that we did not invest and saved to buy a third townhouse.

Now, and here is the real kicker to why buying real estate is a great investment, during the 6 years that we owned the first townhouse and the 4 years we owned the second townhouse in the analysis above, the tenant helped pay off our mortgages in the amounts of about 40,000 for the first townhouse and 20,000 in the second townhouse. So our equity position increased by about 60,000 for a grand total increase to about $250,000 versus the $150,000 in the stock market RESP's This is the truth what people and financial planners don't tell you.

To summarize the analysis in the paragraph above:

- for the RSP option, over the same 10 year period of investing the same $10k per year for a total of $100,000 plus $30,000 less tax paid, plus a gain of $20,000 we would have a grand total of $150,000

- over the past 10 years we invested $60,000 with a net gain of $90,000 plus the $40,000 we continued to save from year 6 to 10 plus the $60k in equity increase we would have a grand total of $250,000

The above analysis is 'real life' no BS, just the facts.

The downside to real estate investing is that there would have been tenants to deal with and maintenance and other issues, but this analysis is very real and very accurate. Some of my clients will say, just buy REIT's and get the best of both worlds, how many of you did that?

Now, back to the RESP's and RSP's that I sold last Friday, the main reason I did it was to be able to sleep at night and to stop having to listen every hour to 680 for financial market updates etc. and reduce my stress level.

The other reason I had the nerve to do it was that I finally found a solution of where to put our investments. RBC has a market linked GIC where the initial contribution is guaranteed and the teturn is equal to 40% of the value that the TSX 60 index increases over the same period. RBC get's 60% of the gain (big surprise! LOL). So, if the TSX 60 index increases 100% over the next 10 years then our RSP increased 40% At least we can't lose any more than our initial investment and I can now sleep!

This was a very long post, but I wanted you to get a general idea of our thinking and why we sold our RSP's and RESP's and got out of the stock markets with our retirement funds. This may only be a temporary solution while we live in such turmoil and I may go back into the market's with our RSP's in the future, but this is what we are doing now.

As an aside, we've opened up an account at TD/CT that will allow our future RSP's to be in mortgages, we will give this a try and see how it goes, just another option that many don't know exists.

My plan is now to contribute future RSP's to bond funds and save enough every year to purchase a townhouse and hold for 10 years until retirement.

Only time will tell!

I wish you all the best!
Mark

Average single family residential home prices increase for past decade

2009-11-09T04:24:00.000-05:00

This graph illustrates the average single family residential prices in the GTA over the past 10 years. There has been a clear trend for the past decade that prices have increased every year.
Enjoy
Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

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CRA and Moving expenses

2009-11-08T04:24:00.000-05:00

I hope that you find that this article is interesting and will give you some insight into some of the items to consider when moving. This will also give you some of the expenses that are deductible.

This is another in a series of articles meant to help and educate you with regards to real estate.

It’s important to know that not all moves will qualify for such tax relief. The tax rules provide that, where a taxpayer moves to be at least 40 kilometers closer to his or her place or work (for example, a taxpayer who moves from Toronto to take a job in Regina), most moving costs will be deductible from employment or business income earned at the new location. The 40- kilometer distance is measured using the shortest route normally available to the traveling public, which inmost cases would mean the distance by road. Also,moving to be closer to work doesn't have to mean moving to a new company; a job transfer to another city while continuing to work for the same employer will qualify, assuming the 40- kilometer criterion is met.

Spring is typically the busiest season for real estate sales and, consequently, the time when most moves take place. Selling one’s home and moving qualifies as one of life’s more stressful experiences, but it’s an experience that most families will go through at least once. In addition to the upheaval of leaving behind a home, a school, and a neighbourhood, the financial outlay associated with moving can be considerable. While our tax system can’t do anything to help with the non-financial costs of moving, it does, in some circumstances, minimize the financial hit by providing a deduction from income for moving expenses incurred

The list of expenses that may be deducted is fairly comprehensive, but not all moving related costs are deductible. Under the Canada Revenue Agency' administrative policies, as outlined in its Form T1-M, Moving Expenses Deduction (available on the

CRA Web site at http://www.craarc.

gc.ca/E/pbg/tf/t1-m/t1-m-08e.pdf), the

following are considered eligible moving expenses:

• traveling expenses, including vehicle expenses,meals, and accommodation, to move the tax payer and members of his or her family to their new residence (note that not all members of the household have to travel together or at the same time);

• transportation and storage costs (such as packing,hauling, in-transit storage, and insurance) for household effects, including items such as boat sand trailers;• costs for up to 15 days for meals and temporary accommodation near either the old or the new residence for the members of the household;• lease-cancellation charges (but not rent) on the old residence;• legal fees incurred for the purchase of the new residence, together with any taxes paid for the transfer or registration of title to the new residence;• the cost of selling the old residence, including advertising, notarial or legal fees, real estate commissions, and any mortgage penalties paid when a mortgage is paid off before maturity; and• the cost of changing an address on legal documents, replacing driving licenses and noncommercial vehicle permits (except insurance), and utility hook-ups and disconnections.It sometimes happens, especially where, as is now the case, the real estate market is slow, that a move to the new home has to take place before the old residence is sold. In such circumstances, the taxpayer is entitled to deduct up to $5,000 in costs incurred related to the maintenance of that residence while it is vacant and efforts are being made to sell it. Specifically, costs including interest, property taxes, insurance premiums, and heat and utility expenses paid in relation to that residence may be deducted.It may seem from the foregoing that virtually all moving-related costs will be deductible; however,there are some costs that the CRA will not allow to

be deducted, as follows:

• expenses for work done to make the old residence more saleable (i.e., home-staging costs, furniture or art rental charges, cleaning costs, etc.); deduct them from income earned in subsequent years.• any loss incurred on the sale of the old residence;• expenses for job- or house-hunting trips to another city (for example, costs to travel to job interviews or meet with real estate agents);• expenses incurred to clean or repair a rental residence to meet the landlord’s standards;• costs to replace such personal-use items as drapery and carpets; and• mail-forwarding costs.To claim a deduction for any eligible costs incurred,supporting receipts must be obtained. While the receipts do not have to be filed with the return on which the related deduction is claimed, they must be kept in case the CRA wants to review them .Anyone who has ever moved knows that there are an endless number of details to be dealt with. In some cases, the administrative burden of claiming moving-related expenses can be minimized by choosing to claim a standardized amount for certain types of expenses. Specifically, the CRA allows taxpayers to claim a fixed amount, without the need

for detailed receipts, for travel and meal expenses

related to a move. Using that standardized, or flat rate,

method, taxpayers may claim up to $17 per meal, to a maximum of $51 per day, for each person in the household. Similarly, the taxpayer can claim set per-kilometer amount for kilometers driven in connection with the move. The per-kilometer amount ranges from 49.5 cents for Saskatchewan to 66 cents for the Yukon Territory. In all cases, it is the province or territory in which the travel begins that determines the applicable rate. These rates were in effect for the 2008 taxation year – the CRA will be posting the rates for 2009 on its Website early in 2010, in time for the tax-filing season.

Any moving-related expenses can be deducted from employment or self-employment income (but not investment income or employment insurance benefits) earned at the new location. Where a move takes place late in the year, it’s possible, especially where the move is a long-distance one, that such expenses will exceed income earned at the new location during the calendar year. In such cases, it's possible to carry forward the excess expenses and deduct them from income earned in subsequent years. Generally, these rules apply to moves made from one location to another within Canada. While it’s possible to deduct expenses arising from moves

from Canada to another country, from another

country to Canada, or between two locations outside of Canada, the rules governing deduction sin such situations are far more restrictive.

The rules governing the deduction of moving expenses are outlined in some detail on the CRA’sT1-M form, and any questions not answered by that form can be directed to the CRA’s individual enquiries line at 1-800-959-8281.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

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Conditional offers and Banks selling under Power of sale

2009-11-06T01:11:00.000-05:00

I had another email inquiry with good questions about POS properties and thought I would share it with you.
Mark

Hello Mark;
I have been following your listings for the last couple of weeks now, and have read most of your information on the ins and outs of PofS shortfalls / opportunities and have a quick question on the list price. Where does this number come from? Is it negotiable?
Also are home inspections possible? or better still home inspection reports already completed available to view? Will a bank do a mortgage pre approval based on a Pof S. property?

At any rate. I am getting closer to finalizing my separation agreement and will be buying shortly thereafter and need to ensure I am not wasting my time studying Pof S.
Any feedback would be helpful.
thanks

Hi BW,

Thank you for your real estate inquiry. These are all very good questions!

The list price is typically market value and often true market value, read about both here:
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-of-Sale-True-Market-Value.htm
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/market-value-real-estate.htm

Yes, you can do a home inspection. The bank does not want any problems before or after the closing, they just want the property sold and off their books, thus they will often accept offers conditional upon home inspection. But, if you are in a competing situation, the bank will likely accept the highest non-conditional offer. This is understandable.

Yes, they will also accept a conditional upon financing offer, but again, if you are in competing offers, the best offer will often be accepted before a conditional offer. Thus, you need to get your financing in order ahead of time.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or if there is anything else I can help you with.

Thank you again for contacting me and I will do my best to help you with your real estate needs,

Mark

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October GTA Real Estate Reports Strong Growth in sales

2009-11-05T08:04:00.000-05:00

This is the October report for TREB for the average prices and the number of sales, both were very strong last month.

TREB Reports Strong Growth in October MLS Transactions

TORONTO, November 4, 2009 - In October 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,476 sales, up 64 per cent from October 2008. The average price for October transactions was $423,559 – up by 20 per cent compared to the same month last year.

Year-to-date sales, at 74,721, were up nine per cent compared to the first ten months of 2008.

Average price, at $392,264 was up by almost three per cent. "After a short dip in the winter, the average home price in the GTA has rebounded because sales have been high relative to listings," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Watch for listings to rebound in 2010 as home owners react to the strong sales and price growth experienced in the latter half of this year."

"Strong sales growth has occurred across many property classes – from price ranges that would attract first-time buyers to luxury properties selling for over one million dollars," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "The highest rate of sales growth in October was experienced for properties selling for over $750,000. In contrast, luxury home sales declined at an above-average rate last year."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

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Financial markets and the possibility of a crash! Series

2009-11-05T02:25:00.000-05:00

Fourth in a series of articles about our financial markets here in Canada

...of this past "crash".There were bailouts, injections of large amounts of cash, by both Banks and private individuals.Interestingly enough, there was no Government intervention. The Fed's felt that the prevailing markets could best be served if left to their own devices.

Although many felt that this was the cause of the Great Depression, noted economists, both today and then,state that this may just have been a contributing factor, however, all agree it was not the cause.
Seems just like today, except the Government did the bailouts.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

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Financial markets and the possibility of a crash! Series 3

2009-11-04T03:25:00.000-05:00

Third in a series of articles about our financial markets

Quite probably, also as was the term Credit Crunch which was liberally used.And we think we invented everything.

Oddly enough, there were many rich investors on a ship on which J.P. Morgan had an office onboard, with a wireless connection to their NY office.

These investors who held huge positions on margin, when they left Southampton were rich, however when they arrived in NY they were wiped out,although they had been trying to sell all the way on their return voyage home.

Many of these people lost as much as $20 Millions each and one of the investors in NY offered and finally did put up $25 Millions of his own Capital, only to lose it.

Being somewhat entrepreneurial, he had saved some cash and bought back the $250.00 shares for 20 -30 CENTS EACH and held onto them.

His son was interviewed from his Long Island home a few weeks ago. Apparently, they have kept the fathers spoils of war, as they are not living in abject poverty.

The moral of the story could be: Hold Nortel and Bre-x, they just may come back

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
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Real Estate Market Market Trends 2009

2009-11-03T08:33:00.002-05:00

This is the latest press release from RE/MAX regarding the housing market in Ontario Atlantic Canada, all good news, of course!

Enjoy

Mark

Luxury housing sales edge higher as purchasers take advantage of buying opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Canada, says RE/MAX

Mississauga, Ontario (November 3, 2009) - Luxury homes sales continue to accelerate as economic recovery takes hold in major markets in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Upper End Report found that momentum is building in St. John's, Saint John, Halifax-Dartmouth, Ottawa, Kingston, Greater Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, and London as purchasers realize that the best buying period in recent history is about to come to a close. Sales are already on par or ahead of last year's levels in 50 per cent of cities surveyed, while the remaining markets are set to reach 2008 figures by year-end.

"Twelve months of healthy home buying activity have clearly been crammed into five short months," says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. "It's hard to believe that the transition in the market began in May. We've seen steady upward momentum since that time, with solid year-over-year gains posted each and every month."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
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