KY3 Political Notebook

Week 45: Nixon's Grade

2009-11-22T18:49:00.003-06:00

NIXON'S WEEK 45 GRADE: B

Republicans believe they caught Gov. Jay Nixon in the cross-hairs last week when he announced deals to freeze tuition rates at Missouri's public colleges and universities in exchange for what was billed as a "modest" five percent budget cut. In a 2007 letter to then-Gov. Matt Blunt urging him to veto MOHELA legislation, Nixon called tuition caps contained in the bill "far more fuel for political sound-bytes than actual protection for students and their families." It was certainly a jarring statement to read after seeing Nixon trumpet a freeze on campuses around the state. While the GOP will gladly launch the hypocrisy charge, there wasn't any significant signal that lawmakers would torpedo the agreement -- whether they believe there are dogs and ponies involved or not. Public Policy Polling (PPP) has the Governor at a 42% approval rating, which is lower than previous SurveyUSA polls. Compared to his colleagues in other states, PPP views that as solid footing, but it certainly doesn't merit bragging rights. Odd that more respondents weren't sure of their opinion of Nixon than those who disapprove. An even higher percentage of conservatives (38%) couldn't render a judgement. One number that should jump out to Team Nixon is slumping support in the Ozarks. Just 35 percent in Southwest Missouri approve, but the 38 percent undecided shows that improvement is attainable, even in a gloomy economic environment.

Wardell Breaks With Pack on Earmarks

2009-11-22T18:04:00.001-06:00

The most recent Republican candidate to enter the 7th District Congressional primary is also the first to openly defend the federal earmarking process.

Michael Wardell said he would not take a pledge to refuse all earmarks if elected to Congress and chastised his GOP rivals for "grandstanding" on the issue.

"The reality is that not all earmarks are pork," Wardell said in a statement. "Contrary to popular belief, earmarks do not increase government spending and my opponents should know better," he added.

Wardell's comments come after Billy Long announced he signed an anti-earmark pledge with the conservative group, FreedomWorks last week. In early October, Sen. Jack Goodman signed a similar pledge with the Citizens Against Government Waste, that urges reform of the system.

Wardell said a "no earmark" pledge went too far.

"I support FreedomWorks and the idea behind the Earmark Pledge, but I believe the language 'no earmarks' is too broad," Wardell said.

"Since earmarks are a mere two percent of the federal budget, it makes more sense to focus on eliminating the waste and inefficiencies in entitlement spending, which comprises more than 30 percent of the federal budget. Simply put, we have bigger fish to fry," he said.

Wardell said eliminating earmarks would limit the taxpayers' ability to lobby how the federal government spends money in the 7th District.

"It would also eliminate any money coming back to the district, leaving it all in D.C. Not a rosy proposition," Wardell said.

"We shouldn’t spend $211,509 for olive fruit fly research to be performed not in the USA, but in Paris, France for example; but spending money for Corneal Wound Repair, tissue repair and burn treatments, and improvements to the Route 60 Bridges over the James River is money well spent," he added.

"But based on my opponents’ statements, their core belief is that helping our Vets that have sustained eye injuries from battle and burns from combat are unworthy of help or ensuring the vital link from the Springfield area to Branson is maintained is unnecessary," Wardell went on.

Wardell said the earmarking issue was an example of how some of the top candidates in the primary are "pandering to the conservative base in a knee-jerk fashion."

"It’s easy to be a glib grandstander on hot-button issues when you’re a candidate for Congress. It’s another matter altogether when you’re actually in Congress working within the framework of our constitutional system. Members of Congress have the option to submit an amendment to remove an earmark from a particular bill for a documented up or down vote. So let’s dispense with the hyperbole, let’s get real," he said.

Wardell, Long, Goodman are vying for the 7th District GOP nomination with Sen. Gary Nodler, Greene County prosecutor Darrell Moore, instructor Jeff Wisdom and Mike Moon.

Dems Clear Initial Healthcare Hurdle

2009-11-21T20:36:00.004-06:00

ONWARD
The U.S. Senate votes 60-39 in a rare Saturday evening session to proceed with debate on historic healthcare legislation after the Thanksgiving break.

Strict Party Line Vote -- Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio was absent
Sen. Claire McCaskill AYE, Sen. Kit Bond NO
Three Democrats voted to move debate along, but still expressed concerns with details of the legislation, including a government-run public option

WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN, Robert Gibbs:
"Tonight’s historic vote brings us one step closer to ending insurance company abuses, reining in spiraling health care costs, providing stability and security to those with health insurance, and extending quality health coverage to those who lack it. The President looks forward to a thorough and productive debate."

Excerpts from SEN. KIT BOND's floor speech:
"Move over, Bernie Madoff. Tip your hat to a trillion-dollar scam. It's filled with costly budget gimmicks and asks the people of America to spend over two trillion dollars on proposals that will heap a mountain of debt on their children and grandchildren."

"It’s the economy, stupid . . . the majority doesn’t seem to be paying attention . . . The bill before us is the crowning achievement of the drive to destroy our economy and our future . . . Instead of debating how to create jobs, we’re debating a bill that will takeover one-sixth of our economy and probably kill jobs. We’re like a mosquito in a nudist colony — so many targets, we don’t know who to hit."

LLOYD SMITH, Missouri Republican Party:

"Claire McCaskill has turned her back on Missourians. Despite a recent poll showing that two-thirds of Missourians do not support the Obama-Pelosi takeover of our health care system, McCaskill joined her liberal colleagues to support a bloated 2,074 page bill that will do nothing to lower health care costs for Missouri’s families. She chose the massive tax increases, Medicare cuts, and onerous regulations of an out-of-control government over real common-sense reform. What little was left of McCaskill’s reputation as a fiscal watchdog has been forever destroyed."

***
The Atlantic's Health Care Reform Debate TWEET List

Why a non-partisan health economist says the Senate bill "bends the cost curve" HERE

Cracks in the Democratic coalition HERE
AND: Senate Dems looks for three weeks of debate in December . . . look toward a mid-January vote

"Come, Take A Stand"

2009-11-20T23:59:00.004-06:00

TEA TIME RETURNTH
The Branson Tea Party Coalition holds a "peaceful Constitutional rally" Saturday at 11 a.m. on Highway 76 in Branson.

The one-hour roadside demonstration will be held on the Highway 76 Strip in the area stretching from The Apple Tree Mall all the way to Fall Creek Road.

The roadside demonstration will be followed by a Speakers’ Forum/Tea Party Rally from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m next to the Dick Clark American Bandstand Theatre at 1600 W. HW 76.

Organizer Eric Farris tells participants to bring signs with messages "of your concerns regarding the outrageous and questionable actions of our elected leaders." Farris urges demonstrators to keep the messages "civil, sincere, and appropriate for public viewing."

More information can be found HERE.
***
On Saturday, the U.S. Senate is due to hold an initial vote on healthcare reform legislation in a move that will test the appetite for proposals that could extend medical coverage and slash insurance costs. The procedural vote will determine if Democrats have the 60 votes needed to move the legislation forward.

Moore Riding High In Early Primary Poll

2009-11-20T20:49:00.003-06:00

"Interesting . . . but means nothing"

"PROBABLY" in race until the end

7th District GOP Congressional candidate Darrell Moore said late Friday that a new poll showing him ahead in the primary race to replace Roy Blunt was encouraging, interesting and basically meaningless.

"This poll is interesting, but right now it means nothing," Moore said. "It's clear we have high name recognition and support to go along with it," he added.

In a poll of 301 likely primary voters, the Wilson Research Strategies survey found that Moore has a leg up on most of his competitors among "decided" voters and "all voters."

Among those decided, the Greene County prosecutor takes 26 percent, tying Joplin Sen. Gary Nodler. Among all voters, Moore and Nodler are knotted again at just 16 percent. Forty percent of all voters remain undecided.

The poll was taken Nov. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 5.6 percent.

While the horse race numbers are largely meaningless this early in a scrambled and crowded 7th District contest, the data does show Moore as a significant force, despite being outraised financially and arguably ignored by most of his opponents.

Moore has the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio -- 27 percent to 2 percent.

The poll, paid for by the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC, also oddly includes Greene County Circuit Clerk Steve Helms as a potential candidate. Helms has not yet announced a candidacy. It includes Mike Moon, but does not include college instructor Jeff Wisdom or Nixa businessman Mike Wardell.

Reached Friday night, Moore said he had not seen the poll. But when read the results, he said it was "too early" to draw any real conclusions from the numbers.

"Most people really haven't focused on it. It's encouraging. I haven't even been down to Joplin to campaign yet. And this may be the year, that grassroots and getting your people out to vote, actually makes the difference," he said.

Moore is competing in a seven-way GOP primary with auctioneer Billy Long, State Sens. Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler as well as Wisdom, Moon and Wardell.

Asked if he would stay in the race through primary day, Moore hedged just a bit, adding a slight caveat. "At this point, the answer to that is yes. I would be happier if we could raise some more money," he said.

"I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

He said no one has approached him about getting out of the race.

Moore raised about $28,845 during the last fundraising quarter, but as of September 30th, only had $11,144 left to spend.

But Moore seems convinced money won't determine the 7th District contest.

"If money won every election, Mitt Romney should've been the nominee of the Republican party last time," Moore said. It also should be noted that in his first race for prosecutor in 1998, Moore said he was outspent by double digits in both the primary and the general election.

Moore would not disclose his fundraising goal for the 4th quarter but said, "I don't think we'll have to spend $400 or $500-thousand dollars."

Occupied with two upcoming trials, Moore said his campaign will ramp up its visibility and spending in March.

"We will not be able to run as much TV as the others. But I think we'll have enough media to remind people. I don't have to build name recognition and a record of public service, like the others," he said.

"TV is great, but if people don't know you, if you don't have the soldiers working, it won't carry the day," Moore added. "I'm not out to raise the most money, but I don't think we have to."

Skelton Not Happy With Terrorist Trial in NYC

2009-11-20T20:19:00.003-06:00

IKE . . . TO THE RIGHT

House Armed Services Committee chair Ike Skelton broke with the Obama administration on trying the men accused of plotting terrorist attacks in U.S. criminal courts.

"As a former prosecutor, I am not yet convinced that the right decision was made in these cases, nor that the presumption in favor of federal criminal trials over military tribunals for these detainees should continue," Skelton wrote in a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates asking for a full briefing on the decision.

The Hill has posted Skelton's entire letter.

REUTERS notes: "It has been mostly Republicans who have been critical of Holder's decision, questioning whether it will be easier to get a conviction in a criminal court rather than a military one because some of the evidence was obtained through coercive interrogations and probably cannot be used."

Hartzler Continues District Tour Saturday

2009-11-20T20:01:00.004-06:00

Republican Congressional candidate Vicky Hartzler continues her 2-day tour of the district Saturday with stops in Camdenton, Marshfield and Lebanon.

On Friday, Hartzler made a dozen stops, including in El Dorado Springs, Greenfield and Lamar.

***COVERAGE of her Nevada stop HERE
"Ike was one of four deciding votes on Cap and Trade, which will increase costs on everyone. This district deserves better leadership than its getting now. It's time for him to go," Hartzler is quoted saying, according to The Fort Scott Tribune.

HER SATURDAY SCHEDULE:

8:00 AM Dunn Bros Coffee, 3218 W Edgewood Dr #1300, Jefferson City
9:30 AM Lake Area Clinic, 948 E Hwy 54, Camdenton
10:45 AM Dairy Queen, 912 S Ash St, Buffalo
12:00 PM Ziggie's Café, 1321 Spur Dr, Marshfield
1:30 PM Dr. Benny Thomas' office, 215 North St, Waynesville
2:30 PM Radio Shack, 430 S Jefferson Ave, Lebanon
4:15 PM Tator’s Family Restaurant, Hwy 54 and 254, Hermitage
5:30 PM Rick's Lincoln Inn, N Hwy 65, Lincoln
7:30 PM Warrensburg
8:45 PM Broadway Grill, 111 SW 12th St, Oak Grove

Community Colleges Get A Cut & Freeze As Well

2009-11-20T14:12:00.003-06:00

Missouri community colleges have agreed to the same deal that Missouri's 4-year public institutions signed off on earlier this week -- a tuition freeze in exchange for a 5 percent cut to their budget.

The 5.2 percent reduction amounts to an $8 million dollar budget cut.

If approved by the state legislature, for the second year in a row, in-state students and their families won’t see tuition or academic fees rise by a penny.

Prior to last year’s freeze, tuition at Missouri’s public four-year colleges and universities increased by an average of 7.5 percent a year over the past decade.

PPP Poll: Matt Blunt Could Hurt Dad's U.S. Senate Chances

2009-11-20T13:18:00.003-06:00

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM BLUNT SPOKESMAN RESPONDS --

"HIGHLY MISLEADING"

Matt Blunt is Missouri's least popular Governor during the past 25 years, and voters could hold that against his father in the 2010 election cycle, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

A survey of the state's Governors found that just 29 percent of respondents chose Matt Blunt as their favorite state leader.

Blunt's father, Congressman Roy Blunt will likely face another candidate with a family legacy, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, next year in nationally tracked race for U.S. Senate.

But Carnahan appears to have a leg up on genetic coattails.

Former Gov. Mel Carnahan, Robin's father, was chosen by 32 percent of respondents as their favorite. Only former Gov. John Ashcroft is more popular, according to the survey.

"Matt Blunt clearly was not a popular Governor, and that could hurt his father next year. Carnahan's father on the other hand seems to be generally well remembered. It will be interesting to see how much those things matter next year in a race that's likely to be closely contested," writes PPP in a blog entry.

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM: Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer called the data "highly misleading."

"The poll shows Governor Blunt is Missouri's third most popular governor and conservative icon John Ashcroft is the most popular governor. The fact that a Democrat poll finds John Ashcroft is the most popular governor ought to be concerning to Democrats," said Chrismer.

A poll released earlier this week showed Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Blunt in the race for U.S. Senate.

Meanwhile, 42 percent approve of the job Gov. Jay Nixon is doing, according to a separate poll taken.

"In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers. Nixon is one of only four Governors PPP has polled on all year with a disapproval rating under 30% (the others being Jack Markell of Delaware, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and Pat Quinn of Illinois," writes PPP in a blog entry.

"The 33% of voters with no opinion of him is unusually high though, an indication that he may need to do more to step up his visibility across the state," PPP writes.

Blunt Wants Investigation of AIG's TARP Money

2009-11-19T20:53:00.003-06:00

Congressman Roy Blunt is urging the Financial Services Committee to schedule a hearing to examine a report that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was unprepared to deal with bailout money AIG received last year.

Blunt said the committee must investigate before legislation regarding further AIG-style bailouts are considered.

From BLOOMBERG: The inspector general’s report “paints a devastating picture of government regulators ill-prepared to deal with the failure of complex financial institutions like AIG, and who failed to fight for what was in the best interest of the taxpayers," Blunt and Bachus said in the letter today.

"Without a hearing to fully explore the decisions that led to the bailout of AIG and its counterparties, we are concerned that efforts to extend and expand TARP, as well as legislation currently being considered by the Financial Services Committee to codify a permanent bailout authority, will only lead to many of the same mistakes that have cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars," reads Blunt's letter.

Cook Pushes Skelton Seat From "Likely" to "Lean"

2009-11-19T20:24:00.003-06:00

King political prognosticator Charlie Cook has switched his ranking for Missouri's 4th Congressional District race from "a likely Democratic seat" to "a lean Democratic seat" in 2010.

The move is minor, and still favors Rep. Ike Skelton. But it's also significant for Republicans who believe they're gaining momentum against a longtime incumbent who hasn't had a competitive race in years.

From THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT:

"Either Republican currently running, former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler or state Sen. Bill Stouffer, will be Skelton's best-funded opponent ever. Each of them possesses a six year state legislative record for Skelton to pick apart, but if voters here are angry at Obama, they will want to talk more about Skelton's votes for major Democratic initiatives," writes Cook.

"Skelton is an institution whose traditional overwhelming crossover appeal will make him tougher to beat than other senior Democrats. Plus, conservative voters here will be able to send Washington a message in the competitive Senate race if they choose. But the district's deep conservatism gives Republicans' "time for change" message room to grow," Cook concludes.

Republicans point to Skelton's recent opposition to the House healthcare bill as evidence he's worried about the turbulent political environment.

***

PLUS: SKELTON LAUNCHES NEW CAMPAIGN SITE

The Skelton campaign unveiled a new website Thursday that includes "new online organizing tools and social networking capabilities." CLICK HERE.

Long Takes Earmark Pledge

2009-11-19T14:06:00.005-06:00

7th District Congressional candidate Billy Long signed a pledge with FreedomWorks to not support earmarking if elected to the U.S. House next year.

"So many politicians have a habit of breaking their word, telling their constituents one thing while doing another. They know that nobody will hold them accountable as long as they keep their stance undocumented and out of the press. I am signing this pledge so that my stance is on the record for voters to see at any time and I encourage other candidates to do the same," said Long in a statement Thursday. "I want people to know what I believe, and I want them to know that I am not afraid to stick to my guns. Wasteful earmarks are driving up our national debt and a wasting people’s hard earned money that they pay in taxes," he continued.

FreedomWorks, headed by former House Majority Leader Dick Army, is one of the largest and most influential groups in the conservative movement.

***

Back in June, I reported for POLITICO about how most of the main candidates aiming to replace Congressman Roy Blunt were distancing themselves from the earmark practice.

WHERE THE OTHERS IN THE 7th STAND ON EARMARKS:

GOODMAN: Hasn't sworn them off, but has set criteria for accepting earmarks.

UPDATED @ 8:18 PM: Goodman's campaign notes the Senator signed the Citizens Against Government Waste earmark pledge in early October. "My Spending Restriction and Reform Act will include an immediate moratorium on all earmarks until the federal spending process can be fixed, an across the board freeze on all federal spending and a balanced budget amendment," Goodman said in a statement.

NODLER: Said projects he advanced would go through normal committee process, but made no explicit pledge.

MOORE: Called them secretive, made promise not to accept them.

WISDOM: Opposed to all earmarks

Hoeman To Take Plunge Against Dixon

2009-11-18T21:37:00.003-06:00

Springfield physician and school board member Michael Hoeman will formally announce his candidacy for State Senate Monday, setting up a likely general election battle with Republican Rep. Bob Dixon.

District #30 incumbent Norma Champion is vacating her seat in 2010 due to term limits.

Hoeman, a Democrat, plans his announcement for 11:30 a.m. in the Frisco Room of the Library Station on 2535 North Kansas Expressway.

In a statement, Hoeman said "quality health care and a quality education are critical to the future success of the Springfield area and Missouri. These topics, along with working to secure a brighter economic future for Missourians were key motivators in making this decision to announce my candidacy."

By most accounts, Hoeman was not the Democratic Party's first choice to run for the open seat. The party had hoped to recruit State Rep. Sara Lampe. After Lampe signaled she was eyeing a future statewide candidacy, the party courted former Greene County Library Director Annie Busch. When Busch decided against a run by early summer, Democratic leaders turned to Hoeman.

***

Hoeman first told The Notebook he was seriously considering a candidacy on June 24th.

Purgason "Encouraged" By Public Policy Poll

2009-11-18T20:37:00.004-06:00

Longshot U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Purgason said he's encouraged by a new Public Policy Polling survey that shows his support in double-digits and noted that Congressman Roy Blunt's high unfavorable numbers in the Ozarks exemplify the problems of the Republican Party's frontrunner.

The poll, conducted between November 13 and 15th, shows Purgason trailing Blunt, 53% to 16%in a primary match-up. But in a potential general election match-up, as a candidate that 75 percent of the state doesn't know, Purgason only loses to Democrat Robin Carnahan by seven points.

"When you work grassroots, you start by planting seeds," Purgason said in an interview with The Notebook Wednesday night.

"WE'RE GOING TO BE ON DEFENSE"

"Polls don't have much affect on me. I have my basic core values and that's what I'm going to do no matter the poll, but I think it's encouraging," Purgason added. "I think what it tells you is that there's a strong anti-incumbency mood out there and that's what I've been seeing as I travel the state. The two parties are so blurred in their leadership."

Purgason pointed to Blunt's 38% favorable rating in the 417-Ozarks area code. "Those aren't very good numbers. We haven't even seen the negative attacks on Congressman Blunt yet. The bridge to nowhere, the TARP bailouts, the cash for clunkers. We're going to get into a fight that we don't have to have. We're going to be on defense," he said.

In the Ozarks, voters are divided over Blunt's favorability, 38%-38%. Carnahan's favorability in 417-land is 26%. Purgason's is only 10 percent.

"NOT IN THIS FOR A DEAL"

But in all of the crosstabs of the data, Purgason's biggest obstacle is name identification. Three-quarters of the state's potential voters don't seem to have enough information to render an opinion on him.

Purgason acknowledges that fundraising has been a challenge. "It's tough to do. Until filing opens and people know I'm serious, people are trying to figure out if I'm serious about this. I've had people say, what are you holding out for? But I'm not in this for a deal."

Asked about potential fundraising opportunities, Purgason said he has been in touch with the conservative Washington, D.C. based group, The Club for Growth. But he seemed hesitant about attempting to tap into money from interest groups outside Missouri.

"If a pro-second Amendment or pro-life group or conservative group wanted to give me money, I would accept it. I don't have any problems taking money from people who agree with my core values. But I really have a problem with so much money coming from Washington into Missouri races," Purgason said, adding that he knows he's "a little nieve."

"Look at all the outside money in the Blunt campaign. I would like to stay away from all that," he said.

When pressed, Purgason said he would accept the Club for Growth's backing if offered. "I would like to have their help, I'm just not thrilled about going to Washington to get it. And I can't afford the plane ticket right now," he said.

But the Caulfield State Senator realizes the only way he'll become a real threat for the GOP nomination, is if he's able to raise some cash.

At the end of the September, Purgason reported raising only around $11,000, with just $1,067 on hand to spend. He reported a total of about 20 contributors.

"I honestly think if I had half the money either of them had," he said, referring to Blunt and Carnahan, "I could win this race."

Rupp Rips Nixon Higher Ed Deal

2009-11-18T20:25:00.000-06:00

"Dog & Pony Show"

SLAMS DEAL AS 'UNWISE and PREMATURE"

Sen. Scott Rupp blasted Gov. Jay Nixon's plan to freeze tuition at colleges and universities as a "dog and pony show" that's already enshrined in state law.

"It does nothing but re-affirm the tuition cap the legislature passed two years ago," Sen. Rupp said in a statement Wednesday, referring to Senate Bill 389. "A bill he was opposed to becoming law at the time," he added.

"If we were to base next year’s tuition limits off the Consumer Price Index defined in state for the last 12 months, we would find that the CPI has been -.2 percent. Although we won’t know the final CPI for this year until January, based on this current CPI number for the last 12 months, higher education couldn’t raise tuition unless they remit 5 percent of their state appropriations," Rupp said.

"I am disappointed that the governor has negotiated an agreement prematurely that has the potential to tie the hands of the Legislature and keep them from doing what is in the best interest of the taxpayers. This is especially alarming when economic indicators suggest that the CPI will probably be negative if not flat for the next year. If that is the case, then publicly funded higher education institutions could not raise tuition anyway under state law - unless they pay back 5 percent of their appropriations to the state. I hope this unwise and premature side deal will not force massive cuts on the mentally challenged and children with developmental delays, as it gains nothing in return other than a reinforcement of state law that the Legislature passed two years ago," he added.

***

Gov. Nixon's office did not immediately respond with a comment.

More on Nixon's proposed agreement HERE.

"A Lead As Thin As November Ice"

2009-11-18T14:07:00.006-06:00

"In some ways, George Bush's lead is as thin as November ice."

--Dan Rather on Election Night 2004

Take the relentless ads by the League of Conservation Voters targeting Roy Blunt and the cadence of criticism building against Robin Carnahan for her silence on specifics . . . and toss it all out.

After ten months of early posturing and positioning, Public Policy Polling is here to report that nothing much has changed in Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race.

In January, Public Policy Polling gave Carnahan a immeasurable 1 point advantage. And in its latest survey, Carnahan maintains the same statistically insignificant lead. One point. 45-44, Robin.

At first glance, this has to be positive news for the Blunt camp. In this case, the tie goes to the battered. Blunt has had more to overcome in the first ten months and has sustained more fire from his foes.

"It is significant that the race is tied given the fact that Robin Carnahan's liberal allies have already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in false and negative TV and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt," wrote Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer in an memo sent to media outlets Wednesday.

"Since April, six attack ads have aired including one paid for by environmental extremists that was airing while this poll was taken. These false attacks have been made without paid response by the Blunt campaign, the GOP or any group. These type of results give us reason for great optimism but this represents only a snapshot in time," Chrismer added.

Conveniently enough, there are plenty of other mixed signals in this poll -- enough to give every side something favorable to point to.

Carnahan holds a 10-point lead over Blunt on her favorability rating. Forty percent see her positively, compared to just 30 percent for Blunt. Yet Blunt wins independents handily, 44%-32%. That's partly, perhaps, because 58 percent polled say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that’s made this race highly competitive."

The most glaring portion of the poll is the GOP primary race, where the unknown, underfunded, often ignored Sen. Chuck Purgason is polling 16 percent against Blunt.

Sure, Blunt holds a 53%-16% advantage, as expected. But why, after Blunt cleared the hurdles of two credible Republican threats (Sarah Steelman, Tom Schweich), is a third -- Purgason -- polling in double-digits.

It's likely his votes are coming from the populist right, the section of the party that is fed up with bailouts, cash for clunkers and deficit spending. But 16 percent is a fair chunk of the GOP primary vote for a guy that's mostly been ignored by his opponent and the media.

Even more striking, is that Purgason polls pretty well against Carnahan, being that it's 11 months from the general. PPP has Purgason trailing the Secretary of State by just seven points (42%-35%) in November.

And you could make the argument that while much less known, Purgason carries much less baggage than Blunt, who can expect a barrage of negative ads to attack everything from his lobbyist ties to his bailout votes to what he had for breakfast while George Bush was president.

Chrismer said "we believe we are in an even better position than this poll suggests. But even this Democrat firm is showing this is a very close race."

But another political consultant tells The Notebook, "This is a really bad environment for Democrats right now, but Robin is still doing well in light of that. That's a good indication of the strength of Robin as a candidate, the weakness of Blunt, or both, depending on one's viewpoint.

A very close race -- But we didn't need a poll to tell us that.

PPP surveyed 763 Missouri voters from November 13th to 15th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%.

Cape Girardeau GOP Chair Targets Sowers Donor

2009-11-17T20:33:00.004-06:00

"SOWERS' CHARACTER HAS BEEN REVEALED"

". . . POORER AND POORER ON EMERSON'S WATCH"

The chairman of the Cape Girardeau County Republican committee is targeting 8th District Democratic Congressional candidate Tommy Sowers for accepting money from a wealthy contributor who wants to send stimulus money to China.

Cappy McGarr donated $4,800 to Sowers' Congressional campaign, and he's also behind an effort to tap stimulus dollars to go towards a U.S.-Chinese wind energy project in Texas.

But some have concerns that stimulus money would be used to buy turbines and other components made in a Chinese plant.

In fact, McGarr himself said the project would create 2,800 jobs -- of which 15% would be in the U.S. "The rest would flow to China," reported The Wall Street Journal.

And recently Sen. Kit Bond wrote, "There is bipartisan concern that the Obama administration is using U.S. taxpayer dollars to fund green jobs in China and other foreign countries."

But Voss made the case that McGarr's donation to Sowers reflected on his character.

"I'm sure Cappy supports Tommy Sowers because they would both rather America chase a future in wind energy than invest in real, affordable resources like oil, natural gas, clean coal and biofuels that create American jobs. That's their choice. But to make China the beneficiary of American tax dollars is just plain wrong, and yet another reason why the "stimulus" stinks," wrote Cape Girardeau GOP chair John Voss in a release Tuesday.

"Tommy Sowers can keep the SNL funny money, and I am sure he will savor whatever crumbs executives on Wall Street toss his direction. But the real Tommy Sowers' character has been revealed from his associations with people like Cappy McGarr, who are taking stimulus money and shipping it to China," Voss went on.

The Sowers campaign called the attack "desperate" and linked it to Rep. Jo Ann Emerson.

"This is the type of desperate attack you would expect from a career lobbyist that knows she has a true challenger for her seat. What she doesn't want to talk about are the thousands of jobs she has sent overseas from the district due to her trade votes, the current economic crisis she actively enabled by her lack of oversight, and the millions of dollars in special interest contributions that have driven her votes for the last 12 years," said Sowers spokesman Jonathan Feifs.

"The people of Southeastern Missouri have gotten poorer and poorer on Emerson's watch, and all she seems to be interested in is attacking the individuals that support Tommy Sowers's campaign," Feifs added.

A Freeze For A Cut

2009-11-17T20:22:00.004-06:00

A tuition freeze coupled with a 5 percent cut -- That's the deal that's been hammered out between Governor Jay Nixon and 4-year public colleges and universities in Missouri.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

It would be the second straight year students and parents see no tuition or fee increase.

The Governor also said he'll have to cut higher education spending by about 5 percent, or $42 million dollars, for the 2011 fiscal year.

Gov. Nixon made the announcements in St. Louis and Springfield Tuesday.

"Over the past ten years, tuition in Missouri increased by an average of 7.5 percent a year. We have worked to buck that trend. And together we're making it happen," Nixon said.

OTHER REACTION:

MSU President Michael Nietzel: "This is really great that students in Missouri will be able to say they have not faced a tuition increase for a second year. I doubt whether there's any other state that's going to be able to say that."

MSU Senior Mindy Dilley: "Me, personally, my family helps me pay for it and I always feel like I'm kind of a burden on them, so this is amazing."

MSU Professor George Connor: "The costs at the university aren't going down and they're not staying flat, so ultimately the university is losing money."

House Speaker Ron Richard: "We appreciate the Governor’s tuition proposal and will put it through the normal process, along with any other budget recommendations from the Governor."

House Budget Chair Allen Icet to KBIA: "We really don't know the 2011 budget picture that well. Although I would say most people would anticipate, and I would be one of those, that the revenue picture for 2011 will be worse than what it is in 2010." But Icet told the Kansas City Star, "the legislature is apt to accept it."

***

PLUS: THE VID

Asked If He Expects To Continue Deals Throughout His Term:

"We're Doing These One At A Time"

AND: Could Better Economy Lead To Tuition Hike?

*WATCH IT*

Blunt, Bond Meet With Ozarks WWII Vets

2009-11-17T19:33:00.006-06:00

Sen. Kit Bond and Congressman Roy Blunt met in Washington, D.C. Tuesday with dozens of World War II veterans taking part in the inaugural "Ozarks Honor Flight."

The Ozarks Honor Flight is part of a non-profit organization that flies World War II veterans – free of charge – to the Nation’s capital to visit the World War II Memorial.

Above: Former Springfield City Councilman Ralph Manley poses with Blunt.

Below: Ky3 Anchor Steve Grant, who is traveling with the Honor Flight, is seen with Sen. Kit Bond.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 5 REPORT HERE

More Coverage & Information about the Flight program HERE

Schweich Explains Fundraising Advantage

2009-11-17T19:13:00.000-06:00

Republican candidate for Auditor Tom Schweich says his fundraising advantage over Rep. Allen Icet is fueled by "rank and file Republicans. But Icet says it's due to former Sen. John Danforth's rolodex.

*WATCH CLIPS ABOVE*

"It's not coming from PACs, it's not coming from other politicians like some of my competitors. It's coming from rank and file Republicans," said Schweich.

"One of his main assets, if you will, is John Danforth," responded Icet. "Sen. Danforth has a great rolodex."

BOTH Schweich and Icet have been concentrating their efforts on Springfield. Schweich said he's been to the Queen City between 10 and 15 times already. Icet said he's been to Springfield as many as three times in one week.

Wardell Adds Southeastern Consultant to Campaign Team

2009-11-16T23:32:00.004-06:00

A campaign consultant with ties to the southeastern U.S. has signed on to advise the 7th District Congressional campaign of Michael Wardell.

Wardell announced Monday that Tim Baker of Capitol Strategy Group, will serve as a strategic adviser.

Baker served as Georgia Congressman Max Burn's chief of staff and helped him raise millions of dollars for his election campaigns. Baker also has experience in the field working for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Read more of Baker's bio HERE.
***
Baker is likely advising without pay since Wardell hasn't yet raised any significant campaign funds. Wardell was the 7th candidate to jump in the 7th District GOP primary, which includes candidates Billy Long, Sen. Gary Nodler, Sen. Jack Goodman and others.

"They Don't Want Allen to go Anywhere"

2009-11-16T23:10:00.000-06:00

Republican candidate for state auditor Allen Icet pointed to House leadership as a reason why he's not relinquishing his Budget Committee chairmanship during the 2010 legislative session.

"It's one of those why change horses in the middle of the stream kind of thought. And, if you were to talk to the House leadership, the Speaker of the House, the Majority Floor Leader, I would be fairly certain that they will tell you in no uncertain terms, 'They don't want Allen to go anywhere,'" Icet said in an interview last week.

*WATCH ICET & SCHWEICH ABOVE*

"They want Allen to stay right where he is because they need those four years of experience to get through the fifth year," Icet said.

ON THURSDAY: Icet's GOP primary opponent, Tom Schweich said the decision was one Icet needed to make. But after a back-and-forth, a day later, Schweich was encouraging Icet to abandon the chairmanship.

Schweich Thursday: "You'll have to talk to Allen about that. That's a personal decision he has to make . . . The question is will it create an appearance of impropriety . . . That's really not my decision at all."

Schweich Friday: "There is no way an appropriations or budget chair running for higher office can avoid the appearance of impropriety while accepting contributions from lobbyists and special interests who have business in the budget process . . . I encourage him to do the right thing and step down as budget chair while he pursues the office of state auditor."

Palin Dishes to Oprah, Then On To The Ozarks

2009-11-16T17:12:00.004-06:00

Sarah Palin will sign copies of "Going Rogue" at the Borders bookstore in Springfield on Dec. 2nd at 10 a.m.

But there are some rules and constraints.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 5 REPORT HERE

SARAH's RULES:

Signing will take place between 10 a.m. and noon
There's a limit of 2 books per person
She'll only be signing her name, no personalization
Tickets will be provided for line-standing
Photos will not be permitted at the signing table
Security will perform coat & bag checks

"She'll be here starting to sign at 10 o'clock. The store will open at 7 o'clock. Lines form either at 7 or prior to that, which we expect prior to that 7 o'clock time," said Borders general manager Gary Selby.

***
PLUS: College of the Ozarks tells Ky3 News it was a mutual decision to keep media out of Palin's speech later that evening. The college says no recording devices will be permitted, but that media can attend if they have a ticket.

Sounds Like A Challenge . . .

Missouri Unemployment Drops

2009-11-16T16:14:00.003-06:00

Down to 9.3%

SIGN OF STABILITY A BRIGHT SPOT FOR NIXON

Missouri's unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a point to 9.3 percent in October, keeping the Show-Me State's jobless rate about one full point below the national average.

Nationally, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent last month. This is the eighth consecutive month that Missouri's unemployment rate was lower than the national average. The state's total nonfarm payroll increased by about 4,000 jobs.

"The October unemployment percentages suggest that Missouri’s job market continues to stabilize while demonstrating what independent economic sources have already been reporting about the health of our state’s economy," said Gov. Jay Nixon in a statement. "We are encouraged by these improving indicators and determined to move forward in creating good-paying jobs and continuing to work to secure investment in Missouri."

The Department of Economic Development cited a Moody's Economy.com report that Missouri was one of 11 states showing signs of emerging from the national recession.

The Most Intriguing Palin-Oprah Clip

2009-11-16T14:48:00.009-06:00

Sarah Palin told Oprah Winfrey that she could understand why a woman would contemplate an abortion in certain circumstances.

Palin, who opposes abortion, writes candidly in her new book "Going Rogue" about those thoughts, and Winfrey brought them up in their interview, which aired Monday.

"It was easy to understand why a woman would feel that it's easier to just do away with some less than ideal circumstances, to do away with the problem," Palin said, while reiterating her opposition to abortion.

Palin said she did not so much consider an abortion herself, but rather could understand why a woman would "go down that road."

*WATCH THE EXCHANGE ABOVE*

FULL OPRAH-PALIN INTERVIEW AIRS ON KY3 @ 4 P.M.

KY3 NEWS COVERAGE @ 5 &6