Credit Score USA.org

PTSD

2009-09-10T21:56:00.000-07:00

I found this fascinating quote today:

September 05, 2009 KANSAS CITY, Mo., Sep 5, 2009 (UPI via COMTEX) — Two U.S. researchers say dogs appear to be helpful to soldiers and former soldiers suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. (source: Psycport.com) – RSS and News widget on Feedzilla.com Share and Enjoy: thesweetmagnolia.com, thesweetmagnolia.com-anxiety, Sep 2009

You should read the whole article.

The Great Recession

2009-09-10T21:45:00.000-07:00

I found this fascinating quote today:

September 07, 2009 Sep. 7–The longest recession since World War II has wreaked havoc on consumers’ personal finances and thrown millions out of work. (source: Psycport.com) – News widgets and RSS feeds on Feedzilla.comShare and Enjoy:thesweetmagnolia.com, thesweetmagnolia.com-anxiety, Sep 2009

You should read the whole article.

google0a0098e3d76b0095.html

2009-05-15T12:29:00.002-07:00

google0a0098e3d76b0095.html

2009-05-15T12:29:00.001-07:00

google0a0098e3d76b0095.html

Economy Booming Again? Seriously?

2009-04-17T10:59:00.000-07:00

by Mike Larson

It's hard to find anyone who's still bearish on the economy or the market these days. Listen to the average pundit on CNBC and this is what you'll hear:

The credit crisis? It's over! Quit worrying.

The real estate mess? Fixed! No problem.

The economy? Rebounding. The worst is behind us.

The markets? They're headed to infinity and beyond! Better get on board.

I've talked about the credit crisis a few times in previous Money and Markets columns. And no less an authority than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes we've only acknowledged $1.29 trillion of the $4 trillion in total global credit losses to date. That means we're not even a THIRD of the way through the process.

In the real estate arena, we're seeing tentative signs of life in some hard-hit markets. But it's the distressed, "fire sale" stuff that's moving. Inventory levels remain high, and foreclosures show no sign of abating. In fact, foreclosure filings hit a new record high of 341,000 in March — a gain driven by rising unemployment, falling home prices, and the expiration of several, temporary state and industry moratoriums.

And that's just on the RESIDENTIAL front!

Commercial real estate is suffering, too. In fact, General Growth Properties, the second-largest mall operator in the U.S., just filed the biggest real estate bankruptcy in U.S. history.

The COMMERCIAL real estate business is in full-scale meltdown mode. Prices are plunging, vacancies are soaring, and rents are dropping. Office tenants recently vacated a whopping 24.9 million square feet of space, the most since the 9/11 attacks. And General Growth Properties, the second-biggest mall operator in the U.S., just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company is buried under $27 billion in debt, and its bankruptcy is the largest EVER seen in the commercial real estate industry.

It's (still) the Economy, Stupid!

But it's the economy that could be the weakest link here. Several companies have come out and said that business isn't getting any worse. Some of the earnings reports I've read talk about how conditions are now simply horrendous, rather than Armageddon-like.

But does that mean things are getting better? Is the economy really ramping up? Is the worst really behind us? I find that hard to believe. Just consider what we learned this week ...

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The consumer is still on the ropes! Retail sales plunged 1.1 percent in March. That was a huge swing from the 0.3 percent gain in February, and much worse than forecast.

No matter how you slice and dice the numbers (exclude autos, exclude gas, etc.), you still come to the same conclusion: The consumer is on the ropes and not in the mood to blow his dwindling paycheck at the mall. That's unlikely to change anytime soon, not with the level of continuing jobless claims now running at more than 6 MILLION — the highest in U.S. history.

The amount of factory space being used fell to 69.3 percent — its lowest level ... EVER!

Factories are sitting idle! Industrial production dropped 1.5 percent in March. That was far worse than the 0.9 percent dip that was expected and the 14th decline in the past 15 months. Capacity utilization — the amount of available space that's actually being used — fell to 69.3 percent. That's the lowest level in the 42 years the government has been keeping track!
Deflation is far from dead! The Federal Reserve has been pumping money into the economy like mad to offset deflation. But so far, it doesn't seem to be working out that well. The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 1.2 percent last month, much worse than the forecast for a flat reading.

On a year-over-year basis, wholesale prices are now falling at a 3.5 percent rate. That's the deepest rate of deflation recorded in this country since January 1950! In addition, consumer-level deflation came in at 0.4 percent, the most since 1955.

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Garden Variety Recession ...
Or Something Else?

Many Wall Street investors are operating under the assumption that this is a garden variety recession. They're saying that the modicum of "less worse" news we've seen is a harbinger of "recovery." They expect consumer spending to resume its normal pace, factories to ramp production back up, and everything to be hunky dory by year end.

This recent rally will be very sharp, relatively short-lived, and ultimately, doomed to fail.

But if this is a much deeper economic decline ... one driven by the biggest bout of debt destruction and deleveraging this country has seen since the Great Depression ... that's a different story. In that case, the Fed's reflation efforts will fail. At best, the economy will muddle along. At worst, it will slip even further down the rabbit hole. And stocks will ultimately head lower.

I don't have a perfect crystal ball. But I believe the risk of a Japan-style economic stagnation is much higher than the traditional Wall Street pundit thinks it is. And I believe this recent rally smells more like the bear market variety — very sharp, relatively short-lived, and ultimately, doomed to fail. So I most certainly wouldn't be chasing it.

Until next time,

Mike

About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

The future of Auctions

2009-04-09T22:42:00.000-07:00

Alarming News: Bank Losses Spreading!

2009-03-30T08:50:00.000-07:00

MONEYANDMARKETS»

Monday, March 30, 2009

YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET

[«] Money and Markets 2009 Archive

View This Issue On Our Website [»]

Alarming News: Bank Losses Spreading!
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

For the first time in history, U.S. banks have suffered large, ominous losses in a giant sector that, until now, they thought was solid: bets on interest rates.

In a moment, I'll explain what this means for your savings and your stocks.

But first, here's the alarming news: According to the fourth quarter report just released this past Friday by the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), commercial banks lost a record $3.4 billion in interest rate derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in that category.¹

And here's why the losses are so ominous:

Until the third quarter of last year, the banks' losses in derivatives were almost entirely confined to credit default swaps — bets on failing companies and sinking investments.

But credit default swaps are actually a much smaller sector, representing only 7.8 percent of the total derivatives market.

Now, with these new losses in interest rate derivatives, the disease has begun to infect a sector that encompasses a whopping 82 percent of the derivatives market.²

Thus, considering their far larger volume, any threat to interest rate derivatives could be far more serious than anything we've seen so far.

Meanwhile, time bombs continue to explode in the credit default swaps as well, delivering another massive loss of nearly $9 billion in the fourth quarter.

And remember: These represent the aggregate total for the entire banking industry, after netting out the results of banks with profitable trading.

Why This Crisis Could Be Nearly as
Bad as the Banking Crisis of 1929-31

Yes, I know the standard argument: In 1929, bank regulation and depositor protection was primarily run by state governments. Now, with the FDIC, the OCC, and more direct Federal Reserve intervention, it's far more centralized.

But offsetting that strength are serious weaknesses in the banking system that did not exist in the 1930s:

• In 1929, there were fewer giant banks. They controlled a smaller share of the total market. And they were generally stronger than the thousands of community banks around the country. Today, by contrast, the nation's high-roller megabanks dominate the market.

• In 1929, derivatives were virtually nonexistent. Not today! U.S. banks alone control $200.4 trillion; and it's precisely in this dangerous sector that the megabanks dominate the most.

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According to the OCC's Q4 2008 report, America's top five commercial banks control 96 percent of the industry's total derivatives, while the top 25 control 99.78 percent. In other words, for every $100 dollar of derivatives, the big banks have $99.78 ... while the rest of the nation's 7,000-plus banking institutions control a meager 22 cents!³

This is a massively dangerous concentration of risk.

The large banks are exposed to the danger that buyers will vanish, markets will suddenly become illiquid, and they'll be unable to unload their positions without accepting wipe-out losses. Has this ever happened? Unfortunately, yes. In fact, it's the primary reason they lost a record $3.4 billion in the last three months of 2008.

The large banks are exposed to the danger that, with exploding federal deficits and new fears of inflation, interest rates will suddenly surge, delivering a whole new round of even bigger losses in the months ahead.

Worst of all, the five biggest banks are exposed to breathtaking default risk — the danger that their trading partners could fail to make good on their gambling debts, transforming even the best winning trades into some of the worst losers.

Here's our chart on these risks, updated to reflect the new data just released on Friday:

Specifically, at year-end 2008,

Bank of America's total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital;
Citibank's was 278 percent;
JPMorgan Chase's, 382 percent; and
HSBC America's, 550 percent.⁴

What's excessive? The banking regulators won't tell us. But as a rule, exposure of more than 25 percent in any one major risk area is too much, in my view.

And if you think these four banks are overexposed, wait till you see the super-high roller that the OCC has just added to its quarterly reports: Goldman Sachs.

According to the OCC, Goldman Sachs' total credit exposure at year-end was 1,056 percent, or over ten times more than its capital.

The folks at Goldman think they're smart, and they are. They say they can handle large risks, and usually they can. But not in a sinking global economy! And not when the exposure reaches such stratospheric extremes!

Major Impact on the Stock Market

In the 1930s, the banking crisis helped drive the economy into depression and the stock market into its worst decline of the century.

The same is happening today. Whether the nation's big banks are bailed out by the federal government or not, the fact remains that they're jacking up credit standards, squeezing off credit lines, and even shutting down major segments of their lending operations.

And regardless of how much lawmakers try to arm-twist banks to lend more, it's rarely happening. With scant exceptions, bank capital has been reduced, sometimes decimated. The risk of lending has gone through the roof. And many of the more prudent borrowers don't even want bank loans to begin with.

Those credit shortages, both acute and chronic, have a big impact on the economy and the stock market. Moreover, unlike the 1930s, banks themselves are publicly traded companies whose shares make up a substantial portion of the S&P 500.

The big lesson to be learned: Don't pooh-pooh comparisons between today's bear market and the deep bear market of 1929-32.

From its peak in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials Average fell 89 percent. Compared to the Dow's peak in 2007, that would be tantamount to a plunge of more than 12,600 points — to a low of approximately 1500, or an additional 81 percent decline from the Friday's 7776.

Even a decline of half that magnitude would still leave the Dow well below the 5000 level, which remains our current target.

Does this preclude sharp rallies? Absolutely not! From its recent March 6 bottom to last week's peak, the Dow has already jumped a resounding 21 percent in just 20 short days. And the rally may still not be over.

But this is nothing unusual. In the 1929-32 period, the Dow enjoyed even sharper rallies, and those rallies did nothing to end the great bear market. My father, who made a fortune shorting stocks in that period, explains it this way:

"In the 1930s, at each step down the slippery slope of the market's decline, Washington would periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around.

"President Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.' And often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30 percent on the first round, 48 percent on the second, 23 percent on the third, and more.

"Each time, I sought to use the rallies as selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky banks."

Your approach today should be similar. Specifically,

Step 1. Keep as much as 90 percent of your money SAFE, as follows:

For your banking needs, seek to use only institutions with a Financial Strength Rating of B+ or better. For a list, click here. Then, in the index, scroll down to item 13, "Strongest Banks and Thrifts in the U.S."
Make sure your deposits remain comfortably under the old FDIC insurance coverage limits of $100,000. The new $250,000 per account limit is temporary and, in my view, not something to rely on long term.
Move the bulk of your money to Treasury bills or equivalent. You can buy them (a) directly from the U.S. Treasury Department by opening an account at TreasuryDirect, (b) through your broker, or (c) via a Treasury-only money market fund. For further instructions, click here and review sections 1 through 3 — "How to Buy Treasury Bills or Equivalent," "How to Use Your Treasury-Only Money Fund as a Bank," and "How to Set Up a Single, Safe Account for Nearly All Your Savings and Checking."

Important: You may have seen some commentary from experts that "Treasuries are not safe." But when you review their comments more carefully, you'll probably see they're not referring to Treasury bills, which have virtually zero price risk. They're talking strictly about Treasury notes or bonds, which can — and probably will — suffer serious declines in their market value.

Step 2. If you missed the opportunity to greatly reduce your exposure to the stock market in 2007 or 2008, you now have another chance. And the more the market rises from here, the more you should sell.

Step 3. If you are still exposed to stock market declines, seriously consider inverse ETFs, ideal for helping you hedge against that risk. (For more background information, see my 2007 report, How to Protect Your Stock Portfolio From the Spreading Credit Crunch.)

Step 4. If you have funds you can afford to risk, seriously consider two major profit opportunities in the months ahead:

To profit handsomely from the market's next decline. The best time to start: When Wall Street pundits begin declaring "the bear is dead." They'll be wrong. But their enthusiasm can be one of the telltale signs that the latest rally is probably ending.
To profit even more when the market hits rock bottom and you can buy some of the nation's best companies for pennies on the dollar. The ideal time to buy: When Wall Street is convinced the world is virtually "coming to an end." They will be wrong, again. But that kind of extreme pessimism could be one of your signals that a real recovery is about to begin.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

¹ For the banks' $3.42 billion loss in interest rate derivatives, see OCC's Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities Fourth Quarter 2008, table at the bottom of pdf page 17, "Cash & Derivative Revenue," line 1. As you can see, that was 7.2 times larger than the previous record — the fourth quarter of 2004, when the nation's banks lost $472 million in interest rate derivatives.

² See OCC table at the bottom of pdf page 11, "Derivative Contracts by Type." In it, the OCC reports total U.S. bank-held derivatives of $200,382 billion at year-end 2008. Among these, the single largest category is interest rate derivatives, representing $164,404 billion, or 82 percent of the total. In contrast, credit derivatives are only $15,897 billion, or 7.93 percent of the total. Within the credit derivative category, the OCC reports (page 1, fourth bullet) that nearly all — 98 percent — are credit default swaps, which have proven to be the most toxic and damaging category of derivatives so far. But they represent only 7.77 percent of all derivatives (7.93 percent x 98 percent).

³ OCC. In Table 1, pdf page 22, "Notional Amount of Derivatives Contracts."

⁴ OCC, table at bottom of pdf page 13.

About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
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Dangerous Unintended Consequences

2009-03-23T11:14:00.000-07:00

Dangerous Unintended Consequences
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

I've just returned from Washington, DC, where I held a press conference at the National Press Club and a round-robin series of meetings with members of Congress ... with more to come this week.

Let me first tell you what I told them. Then, I'll explain what I think you should do about it ...

Why Banking Bailouts, Buyouts, and Nationalizations
Can Only Prolong America's Second Great Depression
And Weaken Any Subsequent Recovery
(Edited Transcript of Press Conference Presentation)

The Fed Chairman, the Treasury Secretary and Congress have now done more to bail out financial institutions and pump up financial markets than any of their counterparts in history.

But it's not nearly enough — and, at the same time, it's already far too much.

Two years ago, when major banks announced multibillion-dollar losses in subprime mortgages, the world's central banks injected unprecedented amounts of cash into the financial markets.

But that was not enough.

Six months later, when Lehman Brothers and AIG fell, the U.S. Congress rushed to pass the TARP, the greatest bank bailout legislation of all time.

But as it turned out, that wasn't sufficient either.

Subsequently, in addition to the original goal of TARP, the U.S. government has loaned, invested, or committed $400 billion to nationalize the world's two largest mortgage companies ... $42 billion for the Big Three auto manufacturers ... $29 billion for Bear Stearns, $185 billion for AIG, and $350 billion for Citigroup ... $300 billion for the Federal Housing Administration Rescue Bill ... $87 billion to pay back JPMorgan Chase for bad Lehman Brothers' trades ... $200 billion in loans to banks under the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility (TAF) ... $50 billion to support short-term corporate IOUs held by money market mutual funds ... $500 billion to rescue various credit markets ... $620 billion in currency swaps for industrial nations ... $120 billion in swaps for emerging markets ... trillions to cover the FDIC's new, expanded bank deposit insurance, plus trillions more for other sweeping guarantees.

And it STILL wasn't enough.

If it had been enough, the Fed would not have felt compelled this week to announce its plan to buy $300 billion in long-term Treasury bonds, an additional $750 billion in agency mortgage backed securities, plus $100 billion more in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac paper.

Total tally of government funds committed to date: Closing in on $13 trillion, or $1.15 trillion more than the tally just hours ago, when the body of this white paper was printed.

And yet, even that astronomical sum is still not enough!

Why not? Because of a series of very powerful reasons:

First, most of the money is being poured into a virtually bottomless pit. Even while Uncle Sam spends or lends hundreds of billions, the wealth destruction taking place at the household level in America is occurring in the trillions — $12.9 trillion vaporized in real estate, stocks, and other assets since the onset of the crisis, according to the Fed's latest Flow of Funds.

Second, most of the money from the government is still a promise, and even much of the disbursed funds have yet to reach their destination. Meanwhile, all of the wealth lost has already hit home — literally, in the household.

Third, the government has been, and is, greatly underestimating the magnitude of this debt crisis. Specifically,

The FDIC's "Problem List" of troubled banks includes only 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. However, based on our analysis, a total of 1,568 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure with assets of $2.32 trillion due to weak capital, asset quality, earnings, and other factors. (The details are in Part I of our white paper, and the institutions are named in Appendix A.)

When Treasury officials first planned to provide TARP funds to Citigroup, they assumed it was among the strong institutions and that the funds would go primarily toward stabilizing the markets or the economy. But even before the check could be cut, they learned that the money would have to be for a very different purpose: an emergency injection of capital to prevent Citigroup's collapse. Based on our analysis, however, Citigroup is not alone. We could witness a similar outcome for JPMorgan Chase and other major banks. (See Part II of our white paper.)

AIG is big. But it, too, is not alone. Yes, in a February 26 memorandum, AIG made the case that its $2 trillion in credit default swaps (CDS) would have been the big event that could have caused a global collapse. And indeed, its counterparties alone have $36 trillion in assets. But AIG's CDS portfolio is just one of many: Citibank's portfolio has $2.9 trillion, almost a trillion more than AIG's at its peak. JPMorgan Chase has $9.2 trillion, or almost five times more than AIG. And globally, the Bank of International Settlements reports a total of $57.3 trillion in credit default swaps, more than 28 times larger than AIG's CDS portfolio.

Clearly, the money available to the U.S. government is too small for a crisis of these dimensions.

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Fourth, but at the same time, the massive sums being committed by the U.S. government are also too much:

In the U.S. banking industry, shotgun mergers, buyouts, and bailouts are accomplishing little more than shifting their toxic assets like DDT up the food chain.

And the government's promises to buy up the toxic paper have done little more than encourage banks to hold on, piling up even bigger losses.

But the money spent or committed by the government so far is also too much for another, relatively less-known reason: Hidden in an obscure corner of the derivatives market is a unique credit default swap that virtually no one is talking about — contracts on the default of United States Treasury bonds. Quietly and without fanfare, a small but growing number of investors are not only thinking the unthinkable, they're actually spending money on it, bidding up the premiums on Treasury bond credit default swaps to 14 times their 2007 level. This is an early warning of the next big shoe to drop in the debt crisis — serious potential damage to the credit, credibility, and borrowing power of the United States Treasury.

This trend packs a powerful message — that there's no free lunch; that it's unreasonable to believe the U.S. government can bail out every failing giant with no consequences; and that, contrary to popular belief, even Uncle Sam must face his day of reckoning with creditors.

We view this as a positive force. We are optimistic that, thanks to the power of investors, creditors, and the people of the United States, we will ultimately guide, nudge, and push ourselves to make prudent and courageous choices:

1. We will back off from the tactical debates about how to bail out institutions or markets, and rethink our overarching goals. Until now, the oft-stated goal has been to prevent a national banking crisis and avoid an economic depression. However, we will soon realize that the true costs of that enterprise — the 13-digit dollar figures and damage to our nation's credit — are far too high.

2. We will replace the irrational, unachievable goal of jury-rigging the economic cycle with the reasoned, achievable goal of rebuilding the economy's foundation in preparation for an eventual recovery.

Right now, the public knows intuitively that a key factor which got us into trouble was too much debt. Yet the solution being offered is to encourage banks to lend more and people to borrow more.

Economists almost universally agree that one of the grave weaknesses of our economy is the lack of savings needed for healthy capital formation, investment in better technology, infrastructure, and education. Yet the solution being offered is to spend more and, by extension, to save less.

These disconnects will not persist. Policymakers will soon realize they have to change course.

3. When we change our goals, it naturally follows that we will also change our priorities — from the battles we can't win to the war we can't afford to lose. Right now, for example, despite obviously choppy seas, the prevailing theory seems to be that "the ship is unsinkable" or that "the government can keep it afloat no matter how bad the storm may be."

With that theory, they might ask: "Why have lifeboats for every passenger? Why do much more for hospitals which are laying off ER staff, for countless charities that are going broke, or for the one in fifty American children who are now homeless? Why prepare for the financial Katrinas that could strike nearly every city?"

The correct answer will be: Because we have no other choice; because that's a war we can and will win. It will not be very expensive. We have the infrastructure. And we'll have plenty of volunteers.

4. Right now, our long-term strategies and short-term tactics are in conflict. We try to squelch each crisis and kick it down the road. Then, we do it again with each new crisis. Meanwhile, fiscal reforms are talked up in debates, but pushed out in time. Regulatory changes are mapped out in detail, but undermined in practice. Soon, however, with more reasonable, achievable goals, theory and practice will fall into synch.

5. Instead of trying to plug our fingers in the dike, we're going to guide and manage the natural flow of a deflation cycle to reap its silver-lining benefits — a reduction in burdensome debts, a stronger dollar, a lower cost of living, a healthier work ethic, a better ability to compete globally.

6. We're going to buffer the population from the most harmful social side-effects of a worst-case scenario. Then, we're going to step up, bite the bullet, pay the penalty for our past mistakes, and make hard sacrifices today that build a firm foundation for an eventual economic recovery. We will not demand instant gratification. We will sacrifice our lifestyle today to assume responsibility for our future and the future of our children.

7. We will cease the doubletalk and return to some basic axioms, namely that:

The price is the price. Once it is established that our overarching goal is to manage — not block — natural economic cycles, it will naturally follow that regulators can guide, rather than hinder, a market-driven cleansing of bad debts. The market price will not frighten us. We can use it more universally to value assets.

A loss is a loss. Whether an institution holds an asset or sells an asset, whether it decides to sell now or sell later, if the asset is worth less than what it was purchased for, it's a loss.

Capital is capital. It is not goodwill or other intangible assets that are unlikely to ever be sold. It is not tax advantages that may never be reaped.

A failure is a failure. If market prices mean that institutions have big losses, and if the big losses mean that capital is gone, then the institution has failed.

8. We will pro-actively shut down the weakest institutions no matter how large they may be; provide opportunities for borderline institutions to rehabilitate themselves under a slim diet of low-risk lending; and give the surviving, well-capitalized institutions better opportunities to gain market share.

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig recommends that "public authorities would be directed to declare any financial institution insolvent whenever its capital level falls too low to supports its ongoing operations and the claims against it, or whenever the market loses confidence in the firm and refuses to provide funding and capital. This directive should be clearly stated and consistently adhered to for all financial institutions that are part of the intermediation process or payments system." We agree.

9. We will build confidence in the banks, but in a very different way. Right now, banking authorities are their own worst enemy. They paint the entire banking industry with a single broad brush — "safe." But when consumers see big banks on the brink of bankruptcy, their response is to paint the entire industry with another broad brush — "unsafe." To prevent that outcome, we will challenge the authorities to release their confidential "CAMELS ratings" on each bank in the country. And we will ask them to reverse the expansion of FDIC coverage limits, restoring the $100,000 cap for individuals and businesses.

Although these steps may hurt individual banks in the short run, it will not harm banks in the long run. Quite the contrary, when consumers can discriminate rationally between safe and unsafe institutions, and when they have a motive to shift their funds freely to stronger hands, they will strengthen the nation's banking system.

I am making these recommendations because I am optimistic we can get through this crisis. Our social and physical infrastructure, our knowledge base, our democratic form of government are strong enough to do so. As a nation, we've been through worse before, and we survived then. With all our wealth and knowledge, we can certainly do it again today.

But my optimism comes with no guarantees. Ultimately, we're going to have to make a choice: The right choice is to make shared sacrifices, let deflation do its work, and start regenerating the economic forces that have made the United States such a great country. The wrong choice is to take the easy way out, try to save most big corporations, print money without bounds, debase our dollar, and ultimately allow inflation to destroy our society.

This white paper is my small and humble way of encouraging you, with data and reason, to make the right choice starting right now.

What You Must Do Now

There followed a vigorous debate and some of the most unique questions I've had the honor to answer in many years. (I'll share them with you when I have the transcript.)

In the meantime, here's what I recommend you do:

Step 1. As soon as you have a chance, take a look at our white paper on the banking crisis.

Step 2. In Part II (where I list a few big banks) and in the appendix, where I have all the rest of the banks and thrifts we believe are at risk of failure, make sure yours is not on it.

Step 3. If it is, I recommend shifting to a stronger institution, regardless of the size of the bank or the size of your account.

Step 4. For our list of the strongest banks in the U.S., plus instructions on where to find even safer havens for your money, see our free report available to all Money and Markets members.

Step 5. Most important, stand by for my appeal for help! I can't do this alone. I will need your support, and I'll explain exactly how soon.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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The Banking Industry's ProblemsAre Solved!

2009-03-13T09:51:00.000-07:00

Eureka! The Banking Industry's ProblemsAre Solved! by Mike Larson

Who knew it would be so easy? Who knew we could solve the banking industry's collapse by simply changing how we account for assets. Eureka! Problem solved!
That seems to be the conclusion Wall Street came to earlier this week, judging by the reaction to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments at the Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday. During that speech, Bernanke weighed in on "mark to market" accounting, saying the following:
"The ongoing move by those who set accounting standards toward requirements for improved disclosure and greater transparency is a positive development that deserves full support. However, determining appropriate valuation methods for illiquid or idiosyncratic assets can be very difficult, to put it mildly. Similarly, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the appropriate levels of loan loss reserves over the cycle.
"As a result, further review of accounting standards governing valuation and loss provisioning would be useful, and might result in modifications to the accounting rules that reduce their procyclical effects without compromising the goals of disclosure and transparency. Indeed, work is underway on these issues through the Financial Stability Forum, and the results of that work may prove useful for U.S. policymakers."
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's recent comments suggest "modifying" accounting rules might help the banking system.
What Bernanke did is shift ever so slightly toward the position of the banking industry's apologists. These lobbyists, assorted policymakers, and pundits (including folks like Steve Forbes, who wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal the other day), are arguing — once you cut to the chase — the following ...
The problem with the banks isn't all the crappy securities and loans they're loaded up with.
It's not that they took on too much excessive risk, lending against assets whose value is plunging.
It's not that they funded asinine private equity deals, stupid commercial construction deals, and dumb home purchases.
It's that they have to mark their book of securities made up of these bundled loans to market. And they argue that the prices they could get for those securities in the markets are "artificially" low — or in some cases, that there is NO market for them.
If only they could avoid marking those assets to market, or use their super- duper net present value and cash flow MODELS — which, surprise, surprise, say the "real" value of those securities is higher — then the banking system would be fine. We could all go back to the wonderful world of yesteryear.
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There's just one problem ...
Pretending Something's Worth More Than It Is Doesn't Change Reality!Look, the problem isn't that there's NO market for these bad securities. The problem isn't that the prices are "artificially" low. The problem isn't how we account for these assets. The problem is that the industry doesn't want to acknowledge that today's prices are the REAL prices.
There are tons of bidders out there for this crappy paper ... at the RIGHT price. Vulture funds, hedge funds, private equity investors: They're all raising billions and billions of dollars to scoop up cheap real estate, inexpensive bundles of mortgage backed securities, and distressed buyout loans.
But sellers don't want to admit reality. They're not hitting the buyer's bids. They're hanging on to the garbage securities, hoping against hope that they won't have to sell at the true market prices. And the government is busy trying to figure out ways to prop up the price of the garbage rather than forcing banks to take their medicine now, even if it means the result is that they have to temporarily be nationalized or put into receivership.
There are plenty of buyers for bad paper — but too few sellers willing to hit buyers' bids.
I understand why this is occurring: Policymakers are afraid of mass insolvencies. So they're trying to figure out how to do something akin to the early 1980s use of Regulatory Accounting Principles (RAP), which papered over insolvencies in the Savings & Loan industry.Of course, papering over the problem didn't mean it went away. No surprise, then, that the unofficial nickname for RAP used to be Creative Regulatory Accounting Principles; you can figure out the acronym yourself.
Worse, many of the S&Ls that were granted forbearance were also allowed to try to grow their way out of insolvency. They increasingly gambled on new ventures, especially commercial real estate, to do so. Result: They eventually blew up anyway — at a much LARGER cost to U.S. taxpayers.
This strategy of delay, stall, and hope has another more recent analog: It's exactly what we saw in the early days of the housing market downturn. Sales VOLUME dried up, while the SUPPLY of homes for sale surged.
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Yet reported median prices didn't decline. I lost count of how many people asked me: If the market is so bad, why aren't prices falling? I answered that fewer and fewer buyers were paying inflated prices, holding up the median.
But the huge build up in supply and dramatic fall off in the sales pace meant it was just a matter of time. The TRUE, underlying market value of U.S. homes was declining; it just wasn't being acknowledged by most sellers yet. Sure enough, the numbers eventually took a dramatic turn for the worse. It's kind of like those old Road Runner cartoons, where the coyote runs over the cliff but doesn't start plunging until he looks down.
It was just a matter of time before the true, underlying market value of U.S. homes sharply declined.
My Prescription: Deal with the Problem Head On!
The longer the industry tries to push out the day of reckoning ... and the longer Washington pretends the problem is accounting rules (or even worse, short sellers, who also were cast as the latest bogeyman for the banking sector) ... the longer this recession is going to drag on. It also increases the chance we end up like Japan, with zombie institutions consuming more and more government dollars even as the economy stagnates.
Think I'm crazy? Then consider this: If institutions just bit the bullet a year or two ago, and unloaded all this crappy paper at the then-available prices, they would be in clover today. They would have gotten much higher prices for these assets.
But they followed the delay, stall, and hope doctrine — and instead of learning from that mistake and changing course, they're STILL making the same mistake today. They're still saying their modeled prices are the "real" prices and that anyone who suggests otherwise doesn't know what he's talking about. They say if the accounting procedures are modified, and the regulators forebear, everything will be fine down the road.
That strategy didn't work for the S&Ls in the 1980s. It didn't work in Japan in the 1990s. It hasn't worked so far this time around. And I don't think it will work in the future.
Until next time,
Mike
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Major Meltdown Imminent! Your Escape ...

2009-02-23T18:04:00.000-08:00

Red Alert: Major Meltdown Imminent!
Your Escape ...
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

The nation's largest banks are so close to collapse and the world economy is coming unglued so rapidly, a major Wall Street meltdown is now imminent.

Specifically, it's now increasingly likely that virtually all of our forecasts of recent months could come to pass in a very short period of time, including ...

Stock market crash: A swift plunge in stocks to about 5000 on the Dow, 500 on the S&P 500 and 900 on the Nasdaq ... or lower. (For our reasons, see "Stocks to fall AT LEAST another 40%!")
Corporate bankruptcies: A chain reaction of Chapter 11 filings or federal takeovers, including not only General Motors and Chrysler, but also Ann Taylor, Best Buy, Jet Blue, Macy's, Saks Fifth Avenue, Sears, Toys "R" Us, U.S. Airways and even giants like Ford or General Electric.
Megabank failures: Bankruptcies or nationalization not only of Citigroup and Bank of America, but also JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. (See my January issue, "Megabanks Could Fail Despite Federal Aid.")
Nationwide epidemic of small and medium-sized bank failures: Outright FDIC takeovers, with little prospect of nationalization. (I'll give you a link to our free guide with a more extensive list in a moment.)
Insurance failures: State takeovers of companies like Ambac Assurance, Bankers Life and Casualty, Conseco, FGIC, Medical Liability Mutual, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance, Nuclear Electric Insurance, PMI Mortgage, Standard Life of Indiana and many others. (Our free guide also contains a more extensive list of insurers.)
Cities and states: An epidemic of defaults by thousands of cities, states and other issuers of tax-exempt municipal bonds.
Stock market shutdowns: Trading halts on major, big-cap stocks ... plus on-again, off-again exchange shutdowns, making it increasingly difficult for investors to liquidate their holdings at any price.
Credit market deep freeze: A virtual shutdown in all debt markets except U.S. Treasuries. An avalanche of selling — and virtually no buyers — for corporate bonds, commercial paper, asset-backed securities, municipal bonds and all forms of bank loans.
Government bond collapse: A steep decline in the price of medium-and long-term government securities, as the U.S. Treasury bids aggressively for scarce funds to finance a ballooning budget deficit.

Shocking? Perhaps. Avoidable? No.

Nor am I alone in anticipating this rapid unraveling of the economy and financial markets. This past Friday, at a Columbia University dinner reported by Reuters ...

George Soros said the financial system has effectively disintegrated, with the turbulence more severe than during the Great Depression and with the decline comparable to the fall of the Soviet Union, while ...
Paul Volcker said he could not remember any time, even in the Great Depression, when things went down so fast and quite so uniformly around the world.

Both recognize that we're in a new era of chaos. What's the landmark event that separates us from the past era of relative stability?

According to Soros, it's precisely the same event we forecast in 2007 and the same event we have repeatedly highlighted here in Money and Markets: The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. (See "Dangerously Close to a Money Panic," December 3, 2007 and "Closer to a Financial Meltdown," March 17, 2008.)

That was the final straw that punctured the already imploding bubble. And it was the first major domino that set off the chain reaction of events now careening out of control: The collapse of consumer credit markets ... surging unemployment ... and now, a new set of even larger financial failures looming.

The Raging Debate Right Now Is How To Prevent
A Banking Collapse: To Nationalize Or Not To
Nationalize. But It's A Moot Point.

Based on the analysis we presented here in August 2008 ("The Next Big Failures") ...

Based on the frank recognition of the catastrophe by Soros and Volcker on Friday ...

And based on the trillions in government bailout funds already spent, lent or guaranteed ("The Obama Stimulus: Truth and Consequences") ...

The fact is that the banking collapse has already occurred!

So the relevant question is not "How can we prevent it?" Instead, it's "How can you protect yourself from the inevitable fallout?"

Washington and Wall Street, however, are either too cowered or too confused to give you the answers you need.

They won't tell you which banks are the most likely to fail or which ones are the most likely to survive.

They won't offer you alternative safe havens for your money.

They won't even guide you to publicly available information provided by the U.S. Treasury Department itself.

In August of last year, Mike Larson and I took steps to fill that gap. As a public service, we invited readers to attend our 1-hour video, the "X List," later making the recording widely available on the Web and attracting over 100,000 viewers.

In the video, we shocked the financial community by forecasting the failure of Citrigroup, Wachovia, Washington Mutual and others; and unfortunately, today, less than seven months later, most of those forecasts have come true.

More importantly, we gave you specific instructions in the video on exactly where to find true financial safety, how and why. If you didn't attend, or you didn't act on our recommendations, you're fortunate in that you still have the opportunity to do so now.

But With The Latest Dramatic Events,
You're Clearly Running Out Of Time! So
Here's What I Suggest You Do Immediately ...

First, whether you've seen it before or not, invest a short hour of your time to watch our "X List" video. Given the urgency of this crisis, we have put it back online; and despite the dramatic changes that have taken place since, the advice remains 100% valid today.

Second, refer to the edited transcript of the first half of the program, which I'm providing below with my latest comments.

Third, download our free survival booklet, which we've just updated — my gift to you, conveying both my gratitude for your sincere interest and my concern for your financial safety.

In it, you'll find step-by-step instructions on how to buy Treasury bills, what to do with your 401k, how to get rid of risky stocks, how to find a strong bank, how risky is your insurance company, plus more.

Fourth, in the guide, be sure to check our handy lists covering the weakest and strongest banks and thrifts, the weakest and strongest insurers, plus select U.S. brokers.

Fifth, join us online THIS WEEK for our next landmark video event. Here are the facts:

Time: Thursday, February 26, 12 noon Eastern Time

Subject: 11 Laws for Bear Market Success

For more information: Click here

For free registration: Click here (Unless you sign up ahead of time, it will be impossible to attend.)

Now, here's the annotated transcript of the first half of the "X List" ...

The "X List": The Next Big Failures
Original Edited Transcript of
First Half of August 2008 Program
[With My Current Comments in Red Type]

Martin Weiss: Big banks and brokers have announced massive losses, with much more to come.

But government regulators generally make it difficult for average citizens to figure out which banks or brokers are the weakest and which are the strongest ...

The FDIC maintains a watch list of troubled banks that are likely to be among the next to fail, but it's strictly confidential.
The SEC keeps tabs on the nation's privately held brokerage firms, but makes it difficult for you to get the critical data you need to evaluate their finances.

Today, we're going to tell you what Washington won't, unveil our own "X List" of institutions and name the banks we feel are the most or least vulnerable to financial difficulties. Then, we're going to answer your questions, live.

It's the first time these lists are being released. And it's the first time we are taking live questions from viewers online. But the seriousness of the situation warrants these special steps. Every dollar you earn, save or invest could now be at stake.

Just look at what's happening all around you. The recession is still in its early phase. But already, we have one of largest bank failures in history, IndyMac Bank, and the largest brokerage firm failure in history, Bear Stearns. What will happen as the recession deepens? What will happen now that the mortgage crisis is spreading beyond subprime mortgages to the far larger market for prime mortgages?

My friends, this crisis is not over, not by a long shot.

All this raises urgent questions for you — as a saver, as an investor, and if you run a business: How safe is your bank? How safe is your broker? What would happen to your money and your investments if your bank or broker failed?

No one has all the answers, but we do have the data to provide most of the important answers.

And joining me today is Mike Larson, one of the few analysts who warned us ahead of time about the disaster that was — and still is — at the heart of this crisis: The real estate and mortgage crisis. It was thanks to Mike's research that our Safe Money Report laid out, many months ahead of time, the precise events that are unfolding today, step by step, play by play.

Mike, let's get straight to the heart of the matter. You, me and the Weiss Research team have been hard at work assembling our "X List," starting with the U.S. banks that, based on our research, are the most likely to run into financial difficulties.

Mike Larson: Correct. Here it is ...

[My current comment: Citibank has been downgraded to D+ by TheStreet.com. Plus, I have added Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase to the list. Meanwhile, most of the above institutions have now failed, been bought out or bailed out. All have suffered massive declines in their share price or the shares of their parent companies. And all should be avoided by both investors and savers.]

These banks are listed with the largest at the top.

Column B is TheStreet.com's Financial Strength Rating, which covers capital, asset quality, liquidity, earnings and more. This is a key input in helping us form our opinion, but not the only input.

Beyond their rating, we are also looking at the credit risk the largest banks are taking with their derivatives, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — big bets on top of big bets. That's in Column C. Plus, I've drilled down into their mortgage exposure (not shown in the table).

But before we jump into this, I have two important caveats:

First, don't assume that everything you hear or read is true — whether good or bad. Specifically, do not lower your guard just because officials tell you "everything's fine and dandy." And, by the same token, do not rush to act based on rumor.

[This is especially true today in early 2009. The U.S. Treasury Secretary would have you believe that the government can prevent a collapse with the newest, still-to-be-revealed bank bailout plan. Others say that the crisis will be resolved by nationalizing the largest banks. But at best, all that Washington can do is postpone the inevitable, which, in the final analysis, will deliver massive losses to millions of citizens who take no protective action.]

Second, no one can predict with certainty the failure or survival of a particular company. Everything we say here today is about the relative probability of a failure or survival, based on diligent research.

Martin: Most people think that "big" means "safe." So the first shock to most people reviewing this list is going to be the simple fact that some of the nation's very largest banks and thrifts could be vulnerable to financial difficulties: Citibank, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, HSBC.

Mike: Citigroup is on the list because of three factors: Its main banking unit has a C- financial strength rating. It has large exposure to the credit risk of derivatives. Plus, it has a big exposure to mortgages — $198 billion.

Wachovia is in a similar situation: It made the fatal mistake of buying the nation's largest and most aggressive mortgage lender — Great Western Financial — at the worst possible time. And it's also got some serious exposure to derivatives.

Washington Mutual, the nation's largest thrift, has a D+ rating and is loaded with mortgage exposure.

HSBC has a D+ rating. Plus, it has an exceptionally large 721% of its capital exposed to the credit risk of derivatives. In other words, for every single dollar in capital, HSBC is taking a credit risk of $7.21 with trading partners in derivatives, according to the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency.

This bank also made a big blunder, similar to Wachovia's, with its purchase of Household Finance, which is loaded with household and consumer loans that are going bad.

Martin: Mike, we're getting questions pouring in from all sides — via instant messenger on my computer and from our Customer Care representatives who are feeding us live questions from customers. Here's a question which summarizes what many readers think about the idea of big banks failing:

Q. Everyone I speak to says that big banks like a Citigroup could never fail. The government would never, NEVER let it happen. What is your response to that?

Martin: Our mission here is not to speculate about what the government may or may not do. Our mission is to present the facts and evaluate each bank on its own merits.

Mike: We had a similar question that came in earlier from a Safe Money subscriber who has money in Wachovia. He asks:

Q. As long as the government is going to keep my bank alive, why should I care? What difference is it going to make to me?

Martin: When a bank goes under, the government steps in, finds a merger partner or takes it over. This can be a quick process. But sometimes it may not be. We see three possible situations:

Situation #1. You're an insured depositor. You've got savings or checking accounts with the bank and they are under the FDIC insurance limit. Run through that situation first.

Mike: You will get your money back. If the FDIC runs out of money, it has the authority to borrow up to $30 billion more from the U.S. Treasury, plus another $40 billion beyond that from the Federal Financing Bank. And even if it maxes out that credit line, Congress would probably approve more.

Martin: But before things get that far, we would have to revisit this question and make a rational decision at that time, whether or not you should rely on FDIC insurance.

Mike: Right. For now, suffice it to say that at this time, the reliability of FDIC insurance is not an issue.

[Today, less than seven months later, FDIC insurance is still functional. However, as the federal deficit balloons toward $2 trillion, as larger financial institutions collapse, and as government resources are stretched beyond any reasonable limit, the viability of depositor insurance is bound to come into serious question.]

Martin: Situation #2. You're a shareholder. You own stock in a failing bank. In this case, it doesn't matter much what the government does. If the FDIC takes over the bank, like it did with IndyMac Bank recently, shareholders are wiped out. If the Federal Reserve steps in to keep the bank open, shareholders are probably still wiped out.

Mike: Either way, if you own shares in a weak bank, our recommendation is to get the heck out. One word of caution: When a bank's stock is falling, it's not a good sign. But remember — just because a bank is losing money and its stock is going down doesn't mean the bank is failing and your deposits are in jeopardy. What you do with your stocks and what you do with your deposits are two separate decisions.

[This is still true. But crashing share prices have emerged as an important factor in a financial institution's demise. Last week's plunge in the shares of Citigroup, Bank of America and General Electric, for example, are telltale warning signs that must not be ignored.]

Situation #3. You're an uninsured depositor. You have deposits with a bank that are over and beyond the FDIC insurance limits, or you've bought bank bonds or bank debentures. In most bank failures, you will suffer losses. And even with the so-called "too big to fail" banks, you could suffer losses as well.

Martin: Correct. We don't really know how government rescues will pan out. They may decide to cover certain groups of creditors but not others.

Mike: Exactly. So our recommendation is very simple: Do not count on the government to cover uninsured deposits or bonds.

Martin: Let me sum up, then: Avoid bank stocks. Keep your deposits under the FDIC insurance limit. And beyond the FDIC insurance, don't count on the government to protect you no matter how big the bank may be.

We'll take more questions in a moment. Let's move on now to the other banks on this list.

Mike: SunTrust Bank — a super-regional, concentrated in the Southeast, also with a marginal rating. It has large exposure to construction loans and commercial mortgages in a region that's likely to get hit very hard by the real estate crisis.

Plus, here are two Ohio banks that we feel are also in danger: National City Bank and Huntington Bank. Weak ratings. Large mortgage exposure.

And here are three more: First Tennessee Bank, Sovereign Bank in Pennsylvania, and E*Trade Bank in Virginia. All bad ratings. All with huge mortgage exposure.

Martin: Once we get down into this middle tier — large regional banks that are not necessarily critical for the national financial system — then the question arises: Would the Fed also try to keep these banks afloat? We don't have a firm answer to that question, do we?

Mike: No, we don't. The fact is, no one knows. But it seems less likely that the government would pull out all the stops to save these middle-tier banks.

Martin: Here's another question we got earlier via email. Leon asks:

Q. I have two 6-month CDs with Horizon Bank in Austin, Texas, rated B-, with five months to go, and I'm over the FDIC limit. Should I withdraw early and pay the penalties? Or should I stick it out?

Martin: Leon, before I answer your question, for everyone's benefit, let me review for you the ratings scale:

A = Excellent
B = Good
C = Fair
D = Weak
E = Very weak
+ = the upper third of each grade range
- = the lower third of each grade range

And based on these ratings, here are the guidelines we think you should follow. If your bank is rated ...

B- or higher, you should be OK where you are, in most circumstances.
D+ or lower, that's a red flag. Seriously consider moving your money elsewhere.
C+, C or C-, consider it a yellow flag. When we have the data, especially with large banks, we check for other dangers as we did with Citigroup, Wachovia and HSBC. If you can't do that, monitor the rating periodically to make sure it has not been downgraded to the D range.

And if you're shopping for a new bank or thrift, favor those with a rating of B+ or better.

Now, let me answer your question more directly: Your bank was a B-, right? OK. So that means there should be no rush to abandon your bank. But you're over the FDIC limit. So to be on the safe side, I'd reduce your bank balance to below the FDIC limit. That gives you the double protection I think you need.

Mike: We've had a lot of questions that go like this:

Q. I have a CD for only $50,000, which is fully insured by the FDIC. So why should I care about the bank's safety rating? As long as my money is insured, what difference does it make? Even if the bank has a lousy rating, so what?

Martin: Let me describe a real situation and then you can form your own opinion ...

Several months ago, a bank in California submitted its financial report to the banking regulators. Based on that report, it merited a safety rating of E- — the lowest possible rating and a clear warning of failure. So customers of that bank could have also asked the same question you have: "Why should I care?"

I'll tell why: Because the name of that bank was IndyMac, and it failed. You should care because you don't want the inconvenience of waiting on line for your money, even for a single day. You should care because, no matter how orderly the process may be, you don't want to have to hassle with bank officials telling you to "please be patient."

Plus, here's another important reason you should care: The FDIC's responsibility is strictly to get you your money back. The FDIC has no obligation to honor the special deals or the special features on your checking account. It has no obligation to honor credit lines or anything else you may have liked about your bank.

Mike: These pictures are depressing. Can we talk about the positive side now? The fact is that there are still many strong banks all over the country, and they're not hard to find. Consider this list, for example ...

Martin: Actually, the fact that they're not so big may be helping them stay out of trouble — away from derivatives, away from the "too big to fail" syndrome that might make them complacent about risk.

Mike: They have solid capital. They take fewer risks. And they're better positioned to ride out this crisis. These are all the large banks and thrifts in the country (with $10 billion or more in assets) that have a rating of B+ or better.

Plus, there are a lot of smaller ones that are not on this particular list. The list we're sending out right after this event has many more.

Martin: What about Dime Savings in Brooklyn, New York? Back in the 1970s and 1980s, when hundreds of banks and S&Ls were failing everywhere, I remember Dime Savings stood out as one of the safest. Is that still true today?

Mike: Yes, it is. It has an A- rating, which is excellent. But it has about $4 billion in assets, and the cut-off for this list was $10 billion.

The strongest among these top 10 is the smallest: Washington Federal Savings & Loan in Seattle, Washington. Since they're listed from largest to smallest, it's at the bottom of the list. But it's got the highest rating — an A+. Like in school grades, there is no higher rating than that.

Martin: So even if it gets stuck with some bad mortgages, even if it loses money, it has the capital — its own deep pockets — to cover those losses.

Mike: Correct. Here's a larger bank with an excellent rating: Deutsch Bank Trust Company Americas, based in New York City. Strong capital. Low risk profile. And here's another one in San Antonio, Texas (Frost National Bank). Also an A-, with $13 billion in assets. Or if you live in Hawaii, you're in luck because you have First Hawaiian — also a strong bank with an A- rating, also $13 billion in assets.

Martin: Plus, I notice there are quite a few B+ banks. Like I said earlier, if you're starting a new banking relationship or you're thinking of moving from an unsafe situation, seek to do business with banks that have a rating of B+ or better. And as you can see just from this list of banks with $10 billion or more in assets, there are quite a few to choose from.

Mike: Martin, there's an instant message on your computer that we have a question coming from the Weiss Research Customer Care Department.

Eva Kaplan: Hi, my name is Eva and I work for Weiss Research in the Customer Care Department. We have a lot of questions coming in about banks and about brokers. Here's one which is generic:

Q. What's the best place to put $10 million and keep it safe?

Martin: With that amount of money, we recommend mostly short-term U.S. Treasury securities. You can open an account online with the Treasury using your Social Security number — no bank or broker between you and your money. Another approach is to have your bank or broker buy them for you at the regular Treasury auction. They'll charge you a fixed fee. But if you're investing $10 million, it shouldn't make much of a difference.

Plus, for maximum convenience and liquidity, you can invest in a money market mutual fund that buys exclusively Treasuries or equivalents with your money. Here's the key: No matter where or how you buy them, the U.S. Treasury securities themselves are guaranteed by the U.S. government with no limit. It doesn't matter if you invest $10,000 or $10 million, you enjoy the same unlimited guarantee from the U.S. Treasury Department.

The downside risk we see is the decline in the U.S. dollar. But to offset that downside risk, taking all your money out of the dollar and abandoning the safety of U.S. Treasury securities is not the solution. Instead, we feel the solution to the dollar weakness is to allocate some of your money to investments that go up when the dollar goes down.

Eva: Martin, can I follow up on that question? Some of our customers are saying:

Q. In your writings, you and your team talk a lot about "the collapse of the dollar." If the dollar is truly collapsing and Treasury securities are denominated in dollars, aren't you, in effect, recommending an investment that's collapsing?

Martin: I think we sometimes overuse the word "collapse," and I'm guilty of that as well. For example, if the dollar is falling sharply in the foreign exchange market, we say "the U.S. dollar is collapsing," just like we'd say "the Dow Jones Industrials is collapsing."

But that doesn't mean the dollar or the Dow are going to vanish and suddenly be worthless. The U.S. dollar will continue to be a viable currency for many years to come. Besides, we're not asking you to trust the U.S. government for the next 30 years with a Treasury bond — only for the next three months or less, with Treasury bills and other short-term Treasuries.

For the balance of the transcript, click here.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Washington's Day of Reckoning

2009-02-02T15:20:00.000-08:00

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

If you read just one of my Money and Markets issues this year, make sure it's this one.
You will not hear what I'm about to say from our nation's leaders. Nor will it pour forth from talking heads on Wall Street.
They are still driven by their zeal for bigger campaign contributions or the lust for fatter year-end bonuses.
My sole mission is to help you preserve your wealth and your income — to set you free from escalating worries about how deeply this great crisis could threaten your financial security.
That done, you can actually use this massive global crisis to grow your wealth, even while millions of other investors could lose nearly everything.
My New Warning
Some will say that the new warning I'm about to give you is too outrageous; too extreme. But they've said the same about nearly every other warning I've issued in recent years:
In 2005, with real estate values still soaring by double digits each year, almost everyone was urging you to buy homes, commercial properties, real estate stocks and REITS mutual funds.
But we warned that the housing bubble was about to burst, and that real estate investors would have their heads handed to them. We begged you to sell and get your wealth to safety.
If you heeded our warning, you didn't lose a penny as real estate cratered.
In 2007, almost everyone — including Fed Chief Ben Bernanke — was swearing that the crisis would be "contained," only impacting the niche of subprime borrowers and lenders.
In contrast, we warned that the bloodletting would spread like wildfire to America's largest banks ... and we implored you to speed-dial your broker to sell every bank stock in your portfolio.
If you heeded that warning and sold as we instructed, you didn't lose a penny as they plunged as much as 100% in value.
In 2008, most pundits swore on a stack of Bibles that the trillions of dollars Washington was throwing at this crisis would miraculously end it; and Wall Street urged you to buy stocks they claimed were selling at "bargain" prices.
But month after month, as Washington unveiled one new handout scheme after another, we told you that they didn't have a snowball's chance of ending the crisis ... and we urged you to sell ALL stocks in order to preserve your wealth.
If you heeded those warnings, you didn't lose a penny as the Dow suffered its worst one-year decline since 1932.
And now, as we put the first month of 2009 behind us, we are nearing Washington's great day of reckoning. On the not-too-distant horizon, we can already begin to see ...
The end of Washington's futile attempts to stop the explosive collapse of the U.S. economy and stock market ...
The end of the slow-motion disintegration we've seen in corporate earnings, stocks and bonds, plus ...
The end of the slow, incremental rise in unemployment.
And just beyond that horizon, don't be surprised to see ...
A massive collapse in the economy and stock market, triggering a tidal wave of bankruptcies, despair and even homelessness ...
A massive, global cleansing of the debt that caused this crisis ...
And, provided we avoid some major pitfalls, the first step toward rebuilding the foundations upon which our economy can grow for generations to come.
Before Washington's day of reckoning, the American people think that government resources are abundant and even unlimited; after the day of reckoning, those resources suddenly become scarce, often non-existent.
Before the day of reckoning, it's widely believed that the government has the power to prevent, end, delay or cushion this crisis; after, it's finally recognized that the government's actions merely deepen, aggravate and prolong the crisis.
Before, the government remains committed to doing everything it can to fulfill the people's belief; after, it begins to abandon its rescue efforts, allowing the economy to fall on its own weight.
Suddenly, government omnipotence is replaced by government impotence; generous largesse is replaced by miserly penny-pinching.
The Reason: Most of Washington's Big Credit Lines Will Be Severed!
If you or I spend hundreds of thousands more than we earn each year ... and then borrow nearly every penny we need to pay our bills, it's called "insanity." When Washington does it, nobody bats an eyelash.
Even before this new phase of the crisis burst onto the scene, Washington was living far beyond its means — spending hundreds of billions more than it earned each year; then borrowing hundreds of billions just to pay its bills.
Now, it's much worse. Due to massive federal bailouts, plunging tax revenues, and surging social costs, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts Uncle Sam will have to borrow $1.2 trillion in new money to fund its deficit this year, the worst of all time.
And that's assuming:
no major decline in the economy,
no $900 billion stimulus package, and
no "bad bank" plan or other bank rescues.
The reality is that just ONE of these three new burdens to the federal budget could double the already-exploding deficit.
Washington may have to borrow $2 trillion, even $3 trillion.
Right now, Uncle Sam's sources of funds to finance its folly are already showing signs of drying up; and therein lies the limit to our government's power to finance a recovery.
Why can't Washington simply print the money it needs to pay all its bills and finance bailouts to its heart's content? Because the mere FEAR of the consequences would turn Washington's creditors away and make it even more difficult for it to raise the funds it desperately needs to
meet debts coming due,
cover payroll, and
keep the government operational.
The key: It's already hard enough to persuade creditors to lend Washington funds even in the absence of inflation. If they get wind of money printing and foresee inflationary consequences — on top of the bankruptcy of America's largest institutions — it could become virtually impossible for Washington to borrow all the money it needs.
The U.S. Treasury's #1 Creditor: "We've had it!"
A bond market collapse is already under way.
Global investors are already growing skeptical that too many government agencies, corporations, states, counties and cities will be unable to make good on the interest and principal they're promising to pay.
And since December 18, we have already seen a sneak preview of what could lie ahead: A massive plunge in the price of Treasury bonds.
That price decline, however, is just ONE symptom of Washington's coming day of reckoning. Another is the sinking confidence in U.S. investments around the world.
Some prime examples:
Last Wednesday, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, China's Premier Wen Jiabao laid the responsibility for this global crisis squarely on Washington's doorstep: The financial crisis, he said, is "attributable to inappropriate macroeconomic policies and their unsustainable model of development characterized by prolonged low savings and high consumption; excessive expansion of financial institutions in blind pursuit of profit."
The implication: A major, across-the-board reassessment in China's investments in the U.S.
Last year, China ended all new investments in a number of U.S. companies.
Also last year, China dumped $26.1 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds — just in the five months ending November.
Major investors in Japan, Russia, Western Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America — whether politically aligned with the U.S. or not — are also showing signs of slowing down, stepping back, or even pulling out of U.S. investments.
Fast forward to Washington's day of reckoning and you will see how the bailout game could end:
On that day, Washington will have to either pay rates of interest that wound paralyze, and virtually KILL the economy ... or it will have to slash and even abandon its bailout efforts.
Ultimately, it will have no choice but to step aside and let failing companies fail ... collapsing industries collapse ... and sinking markets sink.
The carnage will be traumatic and terrifying. But it will also be the beginning of the end of the crisis. Once trillions in toxic debt are swept away, America will finally be ready to lay the foundations upon which this economy can grow for decades to thereafter.
In the meantime, though, if you thought 2008 was a nightmare, brace yourself. The months ahead are likely to be far more brutal than anything we've seen so far.
Keep up to 90% of your money safe, following the specific instructions I have laid out here so often.
Plus, if you've been worrying about securing a recession-proof, depression-proof source of income and profit opportunities in this crisis ...
Or if you've been hoping for a strategy that gives you the bona-fide power to add thousands of dollars per month to your family's bottom line ...
We've just posted a full report that introduces you to all that and more.
The deadline is this coming week. So I suggest you act promptly.
Good luck and God bless,
Martin
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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U.S. recession knows no borders

2009-01-27T07:59:00.000-08:00

U.S. recession knows no borders by Tony Sagami

President Obama and the Democrat-controlled Congress are on a multi-trillion dollar spending spree to keep our economy from slowing even further.
Whether all that spending will revive our economy is yet to be seen. However, one thing is very clear —
Our recession is spreading across the Pacific Ocean to the booming Asian economies.
The United States has become a nation of consumers. And countries that make all the doodads, toys, clothes, and other consumer goods we can't seem to go without are seeing their economies slow to a snail's pace as we buy less and less.
As U.S. consumers buy less and less, many Asian countries are seeing their exports slow to a snail's pace.
The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released their GDP data for 2008. And it turns out that the Chinese economy expanded by 6.8% in the last quarter of 2008 — the weakest quarterly year-over-year growth rate in seven years!
And for the year as a whole, the Chinese economy grew only 9%, way down from the 13% growth rate in 2007.
The reason for the slowdown is simple: Exports are way down ...
China's exports tumbled 2.8% in December, the most in nearly a decade. To put that in perspective, China enjoyed a 21.7% increase in exports during the fourth quarter of 2007. And for all of 2008, exports were up by just 17.2%, a huge drop from 25.7% in 2007.
I also pay a lot of attention to electrical output. That's because this statistic is an extremely accurate indicator of overall economic growth (or lack thereof). And in the fourth quarter China's electrical output was 6% below the same period in 2007.
Now, you may be telling yourself that a 6.8% economic growth rate is nothing to sneeze at. You're right — we'd do cartwheels for that type of economic growth in the U.S. — but the circumstances in China are very different.
You see, a population of 1.3 billion means that tens of millions of new workers are entering the workforce every year, especially as migrants from the poor interior cities move to the coastal cities looking for factory and construction jobs.
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So while 6.8% growth would be great in the U.S., a growth rate of 6.8% is almost like a recession to China.
On top of that, China is also facing pressure from President Obama to allow the yuan to rise in value. Timothy Geithner, Obama's pick for Treasury Secretary, said that "China is manipulating its currency."
Nevertheless, the last thing China can afford is to allow its currency to rise and make its exports more expensive. So I foresee that the currency-valuation issue will probably turn into some sort of political battle down the road, threatening to make things worse for both the U.S. and China.
No doubt, China's slowdown is going to affect more than just its own economy. And the steepness of this slowdown is likely to have a significant impact on much of the rest of Asia, which relies heavily on demand from China.
In fact, it is already causing ...
Slumps in Three Major Markets:
Slump #1 — Japan ...
The Japanese Finance Ministry reported that Japanese exports plunged by a faint-inducing 35% in December from the year before. For an export-dependent country like Japan, that is a kiss of corporate profit death.
Sony, for example, reported its first annual loss in 14 years last week. It also announced 8,000 layoffs and the closure of 10% of its manufacturing plants around the world.
Slump #2 — South Korea ...
Samsung reported its first ever quarterly loss. And it warned that it expected the cell phone market to drop by another 5% or 10% in 2009.
South Korea's economy contracted a painful 5.6% last quarter — twice as bad as had been expected. The problem? China is South Korea's biggest export market. And exports to China are nose diving.
Case in point: Korean electronics giant Samsung reported its first ever quarterly loss. The $674 million loss was a whopping two times larger than the Wall Street crowd was expecting.
The big problem, by the way, was cell phone sales. Furthermore, Samsung warned that it expected the cell phone market to drop by another 5% or 10% in 2009. So if you're a Motorola or Nokia shareholder, you might want to re-think the wisdom of holding on to a company in a shrinking industry.
Slump #3 — Australia ...
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd warned last week that the slowdown in China will chop $3.3 billion of business from the Australian economy.
He went on to say, "And that means a massive five billion dollar fall immediately in Australian exports, just because of China alone, and with a consequential impact on Australian jobs."
In fact, Australian mining giant BHP Billiton is closing a nickel mine and cutting 6,000 jobs around the globe because of weaker demand from China, the world's No. 1 consumer of metals.
I could go on:
Singapore, Taiwan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and China's other Asian neighbors are all feeling the same economic pinch.
What's important is that things are going to get worse before they get better. I'm not just talking about the U.S., either.
What You Should Be Doing Now ...
I think U.S. dollar-denominated assets will get clobbered the most. So use any rallies to sell stocks and reduce your exposure to equities.
As the U.S. recession sends a financial tsunami from sea to shining sea, there are five moves you might consider to protect your wealth and profit from the chaos ahead ...
Use any rallies to sell stocks and reduce your exposure to equities. Raise cash!
I think U.S. dollar-denominated assets will get clobbered the most. I expect U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to be among the worst performing assets in the world. I would avoid them like the plague!
Our politicians are spending money like there's no tomorrow. And that means a whole lot of inflation is in our future. So make sure your portfolio includes some inflation hedges, such as gold and timber.
If you're very aggressive and have some speculative money you can afford to put at risk, take a look at either long-term put options (also known as LEAPs). Or consider inverse exchange traded funds, such as the ProFunds Ultrashort FTSE/Xinhau China 25 (NYSE:FXP). This ETF is designed to move twice the inverse of the daily performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index. In other words, for every 10% the index drops, the ETF is meant to go up 20%. Of course, the opposite can happen: If the index rises 10%, the ETF could drop 20%.
Get ready to become a big, big buyer. The economic picture will get uglier. But the best time to buy is when nobody wants to! And don't forget that stock markets historically bottom 6-12 months before the economy does.
My Asia Stock Alert subscribers have already implemented the above strategy and are calmly waiting for the buying opportunity of a lifetime. I hope you will be ready to do the same.
Best wishes,
Tony

About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Home Video Security System

2009-01-23T23:54:00.000-08:00

Home Video Security System
A Wireless Security Camera Makes Video Surveillance Easy, Portable and Cost EffectiveWith a wireless security camera, the walls have eyes. You can easily monitor the safety of your home or business without the complications of a wired camera system. A wireless security camera system lets you observe various rooms or locations in your home or office.The Security Camera GuideSecurity cameras are the most popular home security products. There are many home security companies that sell different types of security cameras. There are dummy cameras, wireless cameras, digital cameras, hard-wired cameras, and more. There are a variety of home security cameras for you to choose from.Wireless Home Security Cameras - Home Security Without The HassleWireless security cameras are quickly becoming the most popular commodity for security camera enthusiasts or those that simply need an added touch of security without the hassle of wires. Sometimes security needs a little discrepancy, and that's where wired security cameras fall short, and wireless cameras pick up.Discount Wireless Security CamerasIf you are concerned about the security of your home or business, a great aid in keeping your home or business secure is a surveillance camera or a multi-surveillance camera system. There is a large variety of surveillance cameras available that vary in design, price, capabilities and features. If you want to install a security camera in a hard to reach area where it is difficult to put a camera that has cables, a wireless security camera is perfect for you. Wireless cameras have no cables to deal with and their only limit is their range. Wireless cameras are convenient and usually easy to install.Understanding The Basic Styles Of A Security CameraWhen shopping for a security camera, it is important to have a basic understanding of the different styles of cameras, as well as the different modes. There are currently three main body styles: bullet, dome and box.Different Types of Hidden Security CamerasSpy on your nanny, your kids, or even your spouse!! Protect your home or business with a hidden security camera.Night Vision Security Camera - Do You Really Need One?A night vision security camera may sound like something our law enforcement officials would only use, but it is more commonly used by home and business owners than you might think. The question is, do you really need one?Why Buy A Wireless Security Camera?Protect your home and family with a wireless security camera!Design Your Security Camera System For Your NeedsAre you thinking of getting a security camera system for your home or business? Be sure to have a design that fits your specific needs. A camera set-up for a home will be quite different than a system for a business. Here's some tips in getting the right system for your situation.Low Light Security Camera Tips To Know Before You BuyThere are few things you should keep in mind when selecting the right low light security camera for your needs. How do you know your camera will perform in low light situations? Each camera has a specification known as the camera Lux rating or Minimum illumination rating.Why You Need A Home Security Camera And Selecting The Best One For Your NeedsWhen considering a home security system do not discount the importance of a good surveillance camera. Having a surveillance camera is a good way to scare of potential intruders.Fake Security Camera BasicsFake security cameras, also known as dummy cameras, are an imitation of a real security camera. Fake cameras are used to fool burglars and scare them away, as they look eerily similar like a real camera. Fake cameras are a very considerable option since they are quite cheap and available in half the cost of an original real camera.Security Camera SystemSecurity surveillance cameras are now available in different models and in different price ranges. Wireless security system is known as the most cost effective security system now available in the market. CCTV security surveillance system or close circuit television security system is fast becoming an integral part of the present day security system.Bolting A Safe To The GroundAn article in today's newspaper talked about how thieves stole a safe from a home. The safe was quite substantial in size but apparently, the burglars had enough time and the tools to remove the safe. The burglars obtained over $100,000 in cash and savings bonds.How to Protect Your Property and Your FamilyWhen it comes to alarm systems, you have a lot of choices. There are many different types of alarm systems on the market today and there are also many different components that make up an alarm system. You may choose to get a simple, bare-bones type model which will have fewer "extras" or you may choose an alarm system with all the bells and whistles.Luxury Jewelry Safes - The Perfect Home For Your ValuablesIf you rely on hiding places to secure your most valuable possessions, then you should consider a luxury safe for your home. These are not the ugly gray boxes that come to mind when thinking about a safe, but are decorative accouterments that will add decor as well as security to your home.Safes And Vaults For Your HouseFor precious possessions and vitally important documents, the optimal safeguard against burglary and fire is a safe-deposit box at your local bank. But most of these safe-deposit boxes are too small for bulky objects, and too inconvenient for frequently used items like financial records and computer disks. The best way to protect such articles is to store them in a safe in your residence that is burglar and/or fire resistant.Home Security Systems Help Prevent BurglariesThe mere presence of a home alarm is often enough to deter a would be burglar. Establishing a well built level of protection around your home is the best way to keep your home safe.Choosing a Burglar Alarm SystemsBurglar alarms are more needed now then ever. Statistics today show that a burglary occurs every 14 seconds. So why put your house at risk of being burgled instead of doing something now and getting a good, solid home burglar alarm system installed?

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Where have our leaders gone?

2009-01-22T11:52:00.000-08:00

Where have our leaders gone?

Released on: January 21, 2009, 4:25 am
Press Release Author: Anonymous-received as a forwarded email
Industry: Media
Press Release Summary: Where have our leaders gone? The only person I know who may be able to police and oversee the gigantic amounts of tax payer dollars being wasted and put into a defunct auto manufacturing industry is Iacocca and they are afraid to ask his opinion - they already know his answer!
Press Release Body: Remember Lee Iacocca, the man who rescued Chrysler Corporation from its death throes? He's now 82 years old and has a new book, 'Where Have All The Leaders Gone?'.Lee Iacocca Says: 'Am I the only guy in this country who's fed up with what's happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder! We've got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we've got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can't even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, 'Stay the course.'Stay the course? You've got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned, 'Titanic'. I'll give you a sound bite: 'Throw all the bums out!' You might think I'm getting senile, that I've gone off my rocker, and maybe I have. But someone has to speak up. I hardly recognize this country anymore.The most famous business leaders are not the innovators but the guys in handcuffs. While we're fiddling in Iraq , the Middle East is burning and nobody seems to know what to do. And the press is waving 'pom-poms' instead of asking hard questions. That's not the promise of the 'America' my parents and yours traveled across the ocean for. I've had enough. How about you? I'll go a step further. You can't call yourself a patriot if you're not outraged. This is a fight I'm ready and willing to have. The Biggest 'C' is Crisis! (Iacocca elaborates on nine C's of leadership, with crisis being the first.) Leaders are made, not born. Leadership is forged in times of crisis. It's easy to sit there with your feet up on the desk and talk theory. Or send someone else's kids off to war when you've never seen a battlefield yourself. It's another thing to lead when your world comes tumbling down.On September 11, 2001, we needed a strong leader more than any other time in our history. We needed a steady hand to guide us out of the ashes. A hell of a mess, so here's where we stand.We're immersed in a bloody war with no plan for winning and no plan for leaving. We're running the biggest deficit in the history of the country. We're losing the manufacturing edge to Asia, while our once-great companies are getting slaughtered by health care costs. Gas prices are skyrocketing, and nobody in power has a coherent energy policy. Our schools are in trouble. Our borders are like sieves. The middle class is being squeezed every which way. These are times that cry out for leadership.But when you look around, you've got to ask: 'Where have all the leaders gone?' Where are the curious, creative communicators? Where are the people of character, courage, conviction, omnipotence, and common sense? I may be a sucker for alliteration, but I think you get the point.Name me a leader who has a better idea for homeland security than making us take off our shoes in airports and throw away our shampoo? We've spent billions of dollars building a huge new bureaucracy, and all we know how to do is react to things that have already happened.Name me one leader who emerged from the crisis of Hurricane Katrina. Congress has yet to spend a single day evaluating the response to the hurricane or demanding accountability for the decisions that were made in the crucial hours after the storm. Everyone's hunkering down, fingers crossed, hoping it doesn't happen again. Now, that's just crazy. Storms happen. Deal with it. Make a plan. Figure out what you're going to do the next time.Name me an industry leader who is thinking creatively about how we can restore our competitive edge in manufacturing. Who would have believed that there could ever be a time when 'The Big Three' referred to Japanese car companies? How did this happen, and more important, what are we going to do about it? Name me a government leader who can articulate a plan for paying down the debt, or solving the energy crisis, or managing the health care problem. The silence is deafening. But these are the crises that are eating away at our country and milking the middle class dry. I have news for the gang in Congress. We didn't elect you to sit on your asses and do nothing and remain silent while our democracy is being hijacked and our greatness is being replaced with mediocrity. What is everybody so afraid of? That some bonehead on Fox News will call them a name? Give me a break. Why don't you guys show some spine for a change?Had Enough? Hey, I'm not trying to be the voice of gloom and doom here. I'm trying to light a fire. I'm speaking out because I have hope - I believe in America. In my lifetime, I've had the privilege of living through some of America 's greatest moments. I've also experienced some of our worst crises: The 'Great Depression,' 'World War II,' the 'Korean War,' the 'Kennedy Assassination,' the 'Vietnam War,' the 1970's oil crisis, and the struggles of recent years culminating with 9/11.If I've learned one thing, it's this: 'You don't get anywhere by standing on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to take action. Whether it's building a better car or building a better future for our children, we all have a role to play. That's the challenge I'm raising in this book. It's a "Call to Action" for people who, like me, believe in America'. It's not too late, but it's getting pretty close. So let's shake off the crap and go to work. Let's tell 'em all we've had 'enough.'Make your own contribution by sending this to everyone you know and care about. It's our country, folks, and it's our future. Our future is at stake!!
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Last Nail in the Coffin

2009-01-12T12:03:00.000-08:00

Last Nail in the Coffin by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

The government has just released one of the most shocking federal budget reports of all time.
Even if you overlook the gaping holes in their economic assumptions, it's obvious the federal deficit is going to deliver a punch below the belt of the economy.
And once you unveil the shaky assumptions, it's equally obvious the deficit could be the last nail in its coffin.
First, Look at the Government's Own Shocking Numbers!
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that ...
The 2009 federal deficit will be $1.186 trillion! Even after adjusting for inflation, that's more than the combined cost of the Vietnam War ($698 billion) and the Korean War ($454 billion) ... 4.6 times more than the entire S&L bailout of the 1980s ... and 5.5 times larger than the Louisiana Purchase:
In sheer dollars, the 2009 federal deficit will shatter every record deficit of every nation in history.
Even in proportion to the larger U.S. economy, the 2009 deficit will represent 8.6% of GDP — more than four times the average under Bush, nearly seven times the average under Clinton, and 1.4 times the post-World War II record of 6% under Reagan.
After you factor in the additional deficit spending and tax cuts proposed in the Obama stimulus package, the deficit will surge to 10% of GDP.
Federal spending will reach 25% of GDP — the highest level in American history outside of World War II. But during World War II, most of the money was spent on war-related production, creating entire new industries and keeping millions of Americans in uniform or on the job. In contrast, most of the 2009 deficit spending will be for corporate bailouts, unemployment benefits, Social Security and Medicare.
Already, in the first quarter of fiscal 2009, the federal deficit has ballooned to $485 billion, an unprecedented increase of 353% compared to the previous year. If it continues to grow at that pace, it will make all the above estimates look small by comparison.
This is not a fictional scenario conjured up by a gloomy economists with a murky crystal ball. Nor does it represent a third-party diatribe against Democrats and Republicans. It accurately represents the actual numbers just released by the nonpartisan CBO on January 8.
Second, Take a Closer Look At Their Assumptions!
Beyond the traditional budgetary smoke and mirrors, here are just some of the holes in their estimates:
1. The CBO implicitly assumes that the debt crisis is largely behind us — no more big bank failures, no more GMs or Chryslers, no more international debt defaults and no Wall Street meltdown. But the very size of its own deficit projection — reaching 10% of GDP — makes that assumption highly questionable.
2. The CBO assumes that federal revenues will remain relatively stable at 17.6% of GDP, only slightly below the 18.3% historical average. That means there can be no depression, no unemployment disaster, no tsunami of corporate red ink and no plunge in federal tax revenues.
"Just make believe those events can never happen!" goes the rationale.
What about the government data showing that the unemployment disaster is already here? "Largely ignore that, too," seems to be the underlying theme.
3. The CBO assumes that the economy will recover after 2009, and the government will get most of its bailout money back. For the TARP program, for example, the assumption is that the cost will be only 25% of the total amount loaned or invested. The remaining 75%, it figures, will be paid or earned back.
In theory, perhaps. In practice, current trends show that the only realistic hope the government might have of recouping its original investment is by providing even more bailout money to sustain the companies it already has on life support.
At Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, portfolio losses are far larger than anticipated when they were first bailed out last year.Reason: Prime mortgages, which make up the bulk of their portfolios, are now defaulting at much higher-than-expected rates.
At Citigroup, the government has committed to an additional $20 billion on top of the initial $25 billion the bank received initially. Plus, Citigroup also has received a government backstop for up to $306 billion in loans and securities backed by mortgages. But here, too, the government's liabilities and losses are bound to be larger than anticipated.Reason: The bank's portfolio is stuffed with home mortgages, credit cards and other consumer loans that are highly exposed to surging unemployment.
We see the same pattern at AIG, General Motors, Chrysler and nearly every major corporation the federal government has bailed out so far: More good money after bad!
Ultimately, the government will either have to write off most of its bailout investments or wind up nationalizing the companies, draining more taxpayer money for a longer period of time.
Third, Consider theInevitable Consequences!
Based strictly on the official estimates of the 2009 deficit, any economist not on drugs must conclude that, in the coming months and years ...
The federal government will have to borrow more money than at any time in history ...
To raise that money, it will have to shove aside individuals, businesses, local governments and virtually all other borrowers, scooping up most of the funds available in the already-tight credit markets ...
By crowding out other borrowers, it will sabotage its own efforts now underway to restore private credit markets ...
It will put great upward pressure on interest rates — and ironically ...
It could bring on a new, more virulent debt crisis that deepens and prolongs the economic decline.
Fourth, Don't Forget the Big Impact This Can Have on You!
The official budget estimates are sending you the same message I've been giving you: You must brace yourself for America's Second Great Depression.
Any saver or investor who does NOT take protective action could be making a fatal mistake.
My recommendations are unchanged:
Recommendation #1. Keep as much as your money as safe and as short term as possible.
Recommendation #2. Despite the low yield, I recommend short-term U.S. Treasury securities for up to 90% of your money.
Recommendation #3. Despite apparent "bargains" now available in stocks and real estate, use any rally or recovery to get out of BOTH as fast as you can.
Recommendation #4. Don't dump your assets at any price. Sell in a deliberate, disciplined pattern. But do not delay! The time to move to safety is right now.
Recommendation #5. Learn how to build up an alternative source of profits and income, a core subject of our emergency briefing this coming Thursday at noon Eastern Time. Click here to sign up.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Millions of Loans Modifications ComingHundreds of thousands, if not millions, of loan modifications may be soon under way. The government is considering a plan that would help 3 million homeowners avoid foreclosure. The plan would include loan modifications that would lower their interest rate for five years. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than 4 million homeowners were at least a month behind on their mortgage in June and 500,000 had started the foreclosure process so some type of plan is desperately needed. Some banks have already started allowing borrowers to modify their existing loan. JP Morgan announced last week that they are starting a new program to stem the number of foreclosures and they will not put any homes in foreclose for the next 90 days while they implement the plan.JP Morgan's program will also include Washington Mutual and EMC clients, which they acquired earlier this year.Bank of America will start loan modifications Dec. 1 that are expected to cover about 400,000 loans previously held by Countrywide.I look forward to the help borrowers will receive under these loan modifications.

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Biggest flood of red ink the world has ever known

2009-01-09T08:59:00.000-08:00

The biggest flood of red ink the world has ever known by Mike Larson

How much is $1.186 trillion — or $1,186,000,000,000, written out the long way?
• It's more than the inflation-adjusted cost of the Vietnam ($698 billion) and Korean Wars ($454 billion).
• It's more than the Louisiana Purchase ($217 billion) and the Savings and Loan bailouts ($256 billion).
• It's greater than the 2007 Gross Domestic Product of all but 13 other countries in the world.
• It's equal to $3,881 for every man, woman, and child in the U.S.
• It could buy 189,760,000,000 bushels of wheat at recent prices. 26,893,424,036 barrels of oil. Or 1,581,333,333,333 cans of Diet Coke at my trusty vending machine in the break room.
Why do I bring this up? Because that $1.186 trillion figure is the projected 2009 deficit, according to the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
And it is downright scary.
These Numbers Are Big — Really Big!
That $1.186 trillion is such a large number — so out of control — that it's hard for most of us mere mortals to process it. Suffice it to say ... It's the biggest flood of budgetary red ink any country has ever seen in world history. And it makes last year's $455 billion deficit look like chump change.
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It's not just the absolute number, either ...
The projected 2009 figure is equal to about 8.3% of U.S. GDP. That tops the post-World War II record of 6% set in 1983.
Still not worried?
Then get a load of this:
The CBO estimate doesn't even include any potential stimulus package from Congress and the Obama administration.
We haven't gotten the final details of the stimulus plan. But it could cost anywhere from $675 billion to $1 trillion. That means the ultimate 2009 deficit could end up being larger by 60% ... 70% ... 80% ... or more!
Is the red ink a short-term problem, one that will soon go away? Not according to the CBO. Scroll through the agency's report — "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019" (available at: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook.pdf) and you'll come to a nifty table on page 23.
It projects red ink as far as the eye can see: An ADDITIONAL $3.135 trillion from 2010 through 2019.
Source: CBO
Two possibilities could bail us out of this black hole of debt:
Congress and the incoming administration could really clamp down on spending going forward to stem the tide of red ink.
Or the stimulus plan could manage to completely offset all the credit, real estate, and economic problems, thereby leading to a windfall in tax receipts.
Both are highly unlikely ...
And if neither scenario comes about, this country's finances are going to be blown to hell for years and years to come.
Consequence-Free Borrowing Forever?Not Bloody Likely
Now if you're the type of person who believes consumers, corporations, or even sovereign nations can borrow money they don't have ... and spend far beyond their means ... for all eternity, then you can stop reading right now.
The amount of money Obama will need in 2009 scares the bejeezus out of me.
There's absolutely nothing to worry about.
But if you're like me, and you think numbers like $1.186 trillion are so far off the charts that they HAVE to have consequences, then you should be downright scared!
The government is already selling record amounts of debt at auction, day after day, week after week.
This week alone, Treasury sold $8 billion in 10-year TIPS and $24 billion in four-week bills on Tuesday ... $30 billion in 3-year notes and $35 billion in 70-day cash management bills on Wednesday ... and $16 billion of nominal 10-year notes on Thursday. And there's no end in sight.
Total net issuance could approach a mind-boggling $2 trillion by year's end!
At some point, investors are going to balk at all this issuance. They're going to choke on the massive amount of U.S. paper spilling out of Washington. They'll demand higher yields to buy our debt, driving bond prices down and interest rates up, just as I warned in my December 5, Money and Markets column, "The Biggest Bubble of All: Long-term Treasuries?".
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Heck, the day of reckoning could already be upon us ...
Thirty-year Treasuries plunged more than 3 points on New Year's Eve ... another 2 30/32 on January 2 ... a whopping 5 16/32 on January 5 ... and another 1 28/32 on January 7. They've lost almost 13 points in a virtual straight line, while yields on 10-year notes shot up from 2.25% to 2.5%.
My advice remains the same: Short-term Treasuries are fine as a place to park your keep safe money. But stay the heck away from long-term U.S. debt.
Until next time,
Mike
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Looming Collapse of Russia, China and more

2009-01-05T11:32:00.000-08:00

Looming Collapse of Russia, China and more ... by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

I hope you've had a great start to your New Year!
At the same time, however, I trust you are not counting on the latest holiday rally in the stock market — or the most recent incarnation of the Obama rescue package — to transform 2009 into a positive year for the economy.
The reasons: In addition to the massive wealth destruction I told you about two weeks ago and the continuing debt collapse I've been warning you about for many months now, the overseas engines of global growth are also collapsing.
This does not negate my long-term view that certain overseas economies offer great future opportunities. But it does represent a major short-term threat to U.S. investors, U.S. companies and the U.S. economy as a whole.
The undeniable reality: The debt crisis that first appeared in the U.S. subprime mortgage market ... then precipitated a Wall Street meltdown ... and has now driven the American economy into its sharpest decline since the Great Depression ... has now spread to the entire world.
It is driving the economies of Western Europe and Japan into an unprecedented tailspin. It threatens the economic — and potentially political — stability of Russia, China and several emerging market nations. And it's setting the stage for a global depression of epic dimensions.
Here are some of the most vulnerable major economies ...
Russia Smashed by Oil Price Collapse
Never in modern history has the success or failure of a major emerging economy been so dependent on one single commodity! And never before has that commodity fallen so far and so fast as Russian crude oil!
Russia does have other resource and revenue sources. But in just the past six months, Urals crude, Russia's primary export blend, has plunged from a high of nearly $141 per barrel to a low of a meager $32.34 — a 77% crash that's pounded Russian stocks like a sledgehammer and sliced through the Russian economy like a serrated sickle.
The big dilemma: To balance its federal budget, Russia must get a minimum of $70 per barrel for its crude oil. But at $32 and change, it's getting less than HALF that amount. The entire country is losing money hand over fist.
No wonder Russia's stock market has plunged 72%, forcing 25 separate stock exchange shutdowns!
Transneft, the Russian oil transporter, is down from $2,025 in January 2008 to a recent low of $270. Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly, has lost more than two-thirds of its market capitalization since May. Meanwhile, Lukoil fell from a May peak of $113 to a recent low of $32.
Russia's oil-driven real estate bubble is also collapsing. That's why Russian construction and real estate giant Sistema-Hals lost more than 94% of its value last year alone ... why PIK Group, another major construction giant, collapsed by 96% ... and why the entire RCP Shares Index of Russian developers has sunk 92% since its record high in June 2007.
Ford, Renault and Volkswagen are halting production at Russian assembly lines. Unemployment is likely to surge to 10% and beyond. Massive amounts of foreign capital are fleeing the country.
In a desperate attempt to stem the tide, the Russian government has devalued the ruble 11 times since November, and thrown a quarter of its foreign currency reserves at the raging debt crisis. But it's still not enough. Russia's primary source of revenues — energy exports — is in shambles; and unless crude oil prices could somehow DOUBLE in a big hurry, Russia's economic and financial decline cannot end.
Standard & Poor's has cut Russia's long-term debt rating for the first time in nine years, citing dangerous outflows and a "rapid depletion" of currency reserves. And more downgrades are in the offing. Even a major debt default is not unthinkable.
The biggest danger: Political upheaval and social unrest.
Even before this crisis, Russia's middle class earned less than $500 per month. Now, with the devastating plunge in oil revenues already in place, those numbers are falling to even lower levels. For a nation with a cost of living that rivals that of the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the last thing the Russian people needed was a depression. Yet that's exactly what they're getting.
I visited Russia last year before the collapse in oil prices. I spoke to a variety of professionals and people on the street. And I stayed with friends who work in government jobs.
From everything I had read, I had anticipated signs of greater prosperity. Instead, I was surprised to see how little average citizens had benefited from the recent years of rapid economic growth.
Yes, they have more access to a wider variety of goods that were scarce during the Soviet era. But most professionals — such as teachers, doctors, nurses and government employees — are still living on the edge of poverty.
Equally surprising is the popular disgust and disdain for the government. Public opinion surveys and press reports may indicate broad support for the Kremlin's foreign policy, and they seem to be accurate. But support for domestic policies is another matter entirely.
My view: Any major disappointment with respect to pocketbook issues could lead to major political changes, the outcome of which is largely unpredictable.
China Far More Vulnerable Than Expected
China's extraordinary expansion of the past decade fueled booms in global trade, commodities and emerging markets. It was a major growth engine that turbo-charged Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and even Japan.
Now, however, that engine is grinding to a screeching halt. Indeed, when historians look back to major pivot points of this global economic crisis, they will undoubtedly point to the abrupt end of China's boom.
Many of us assumed that because China's economy was growing so quickly — at a breakneck pace of 10% or more per year — it could easily afford to slow down by a few percentage points and still be in far better shape than most other economies.
But now I seriously question that theory. Indeed, more often than not, companies, industries and entire nations that enjoy the biggest booms are also vulnerable to some of the biggest busts. Instead of a mere slowdown, as many still seem to expect, China's economy could suffer a wholesale collapse.
Exports, which still represent two-fifths of the Chinese economy, are already sinking fast. And the domestic economy, much of which depends directly or indirectly on the revenues flowing from exports, is also beginning to sink.
Warning signs are everywhere: Stocks, down 60% just in the last 12 months; imports, down 17.9% in November alone; foreign investments to China, off 36.5% last year.
In response, the government has slashed interest rates and pledged a $582 billion stimulus package. But that's mere pocket change compared to China's trillions in vulnerable exports. Moreover, it has done little to help millions of small- and medium-sized businesses which are already shutting down and laying off millions.
A big problem: 45% of the Chinese government bailout is earmarked for the cement and housing industry. Meanwhile, cash-flow problems are sweeping through the entire economy, downing airlines, manufacturers and property companies.
Airlines like China Southern and China Eastern, for example, have been losing money hand over fist. China's auto sales are plunging. Its shipbuilding industry is in a tailspin. And its real estate market is collapsing.
Next, expect surging unemployment ... mass reverse migrations from urban centers to the countryside ... spreading popular unrest ... and a major challenge to authority. Chinese leaders have already admitted that an economic downturn would test their ability to govern. Now, that downturn is here — and the ultimate test, on the near horizon.
Meanwhile ...
India, also heavily dependent on foreign demand for its goods, is suffering its worst export slump in recent memory. Overseas shipments plunged 12.1% in October and another 9.9% in November, forcing companies like Tata Motors, India's biggest truck maker, and Hyundai Motor to cut output, fire workers and shut down factories.
Brazil, which was growing at a record pace until the third quarter, has suddenly frozen in its tracks. Much of the foreign money it counted on has vanished, leaving acute capital shortages in its wake. Auto sales have gone dead, leaving biggest-ever inventories of unsold cars. Credit, abundantly available just a few months ago, is now gone.
Japan has been slammed by its worst recession since World War II ... with stock prices plunging to new 18-year lows ... industrial output suffering the largest monthly drop since records were kept ... Toyota reporting its first loss in 70 years ... layoff victims filling tent parks ... and worse.
Everywhere from Argentina and Mexico to Australia, New Zealand and even the once-rich Middle East, the worldwide debt crisis, the bust in commodities and the sharp slowdown in global trade are transforming massive booms into instant recessions.
It's happening fast and it's accelerating. Government rescue programs aren't nearly enough to turn the tide. And it's another key reason you must approach 2009 with great caution.
Stick with safety. Don't veer from the course I have laid out for avoiding the dangers. Wait for the truly big price declines ahead before reinvesting!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Five Fearless 2009 Predictions

2008-12-31T16:44:00.000-08:00

Five Fearless 2009 Predictions by Tony Sagami

2008 has been a very difficult year for investors. And most are eager to put it behind them while hoping for a better 2009.
I don't have a crystal ball. But I believe there are five powerful trends that can destroy or enrich your portfolio next year ...
Powerful Trend #1 — The U.S. Stock Market Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower ...
I don't believe we've seen the last of the exploding, financial time bombs.
What's more, I expect:
Real estate prices will continue falling,
Unemployment will continue rising,
Our economy will continue contracting, and
Our stock market will reflect the deterioration of those long-term, systemic economic woes.
The Dow could tumble several thousand more points before it hits bottom.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is below 9,000. And I believe the Dow could lose SEVERAL THOUSAND more points before it finally bottoms.
Your opportunity: Selling on strength is my #1 recommendation for 2009. That means taking advantage of rallies to pare back your U.S. stock holdings.
Powerful Trend #2 — The U.S. Dollar Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower ...
The cost of bailing out our county's financial institutions alone will be at least $5 trillion. And that's just the beginning of the trillions of dollars in loans, grants, guarantees, and other programs being cooked up!
So our politicians have a whole lot more spending to do. Those humongous spending plans, combined with our already swelling budget deficits, make the U.S. look like an irresponsible spendthrift to the rest of the world.
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Smart international investors do not want to hold what will become devalued dollars. And one of the best moves you can make is to diversity into non-dollar denominated assets.
Your opportunity: Consider international bonds funds, such as the Prudent Global Income Fund (PSAFX) or the T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund (RPIBX).
Powerful Trend #3 — Interest Rates Are Headed Higher. A Lot Higher ...
Inflation always has been, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon where too many dollars are chasing too few goods.
The Treasury Department will need to crank up its printing presses to an unprecedented speed to pay for all the commitments Washington is making.
Our national debt is $10.6 trillion and going up by $3.49 billion a day. That's $34,723 in debt for each and every U.S. citizen.
To pay the interest on this debt and finance even more massive bailout plans, Hank Paulson will order the Treasury Department to crank up its printing presses to an unprecedented speed.
The consequences: At some point in the near future, the flood of newly created dollars is going to send inflation and long-term interest rates to the moon.
Your opportunity: Consider inverse bond funds that actually increase in value when interest rates are rising, such as the Rydex Inverse Gov Long Bond Strategy Inv Fund (RYJUX) or the ProFunds Rising Rates Opportunity Fund (RRPIX).
Powerful Trend #4 — Commodity Prices, Including Energy, Will Be Higher 12 Months From Now ...
I used to spend $100 filling up my full-size SUV. So I appreciate falling energy prices as much as anybody. But I don't expect low prices to last for long.
Energy prices will resume their upward spiral as worldwide demand outpaces supply.
The growing emerging market economies and the other supply/demand factors that sent oil prices to $150 earlier this year are still in force today. Perhaps not at the previous gangbuster pace, but certainly at a pace that is enough to steadily push commodity prices higher over time.
Your opportunity: The price of natural resource and energy stocks are down — way, way down. And companies with solid, tangible assets will be among the best performing stocks to own in the coming years.
That's why this is the time to start accumulating shares in commodity kings like Barrick Gold (ABX), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), CNOOC Ltd. (COE), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Cameco (CCJ).
Powerful Trend #5 — Asian Markets Are Headed Lower. But Will Bounce Like A Superball ...
I don't care what part of the world you pick — Europe, North America, South America, or Asia — the short-term outlook is not good. The long-term outlook varies greatly around the globe.
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And right now, it's the brightest in Asia in general, and China in particular, where I expect the rebound to be very powerful.
The Chinese economy is a multi-decade story. And there will be plenty of 'ten baggers' to be found amidst the beaten down diamonds.
Your opportunity: Take advantage of any dips to add quality Asian stocks — like New Oriental Education (EDU) and China Mobile (CHL) — to your portfolio.
The bottom line of my end-of-the-year message: Success in 2009 will require both caution and guts ...
Caution to keep your portfolio intact and to raise cash whenever possible. And the guts to buy when things seem the worst.
Best wishes for 2009!
Tony
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Happy New Year's Eve. What a year, eh?

2008-12-31T16:38:00.000-08:00

Blood in the Streets by Sean Brodrick
Happy New Year's Eve. What a year, eh? Speculation causes a massive market collapse ... gold prices soar ... leading bankers fail ...
But I'm not talking about today's market woes!
I'm talking about the Panic of 1873.
That was a panic that makes our current market downturn look like a tea party. And there's a good lesson for today's investors to learn from those hard times.
It Was Bad in the U.S., But in Europe ...
The Panic of 1873 makes our market downturn look like a tea party.
Here in the U.S., the Panic of 1873 (which started in 1869) was a combination of railroad speculation, a run on physical gold, and brand-name bank and brokerage houses failing.
Across the pond, in Europe, it was much, much worse. And it gave one of the world's most legendary capitalists the chance to make a fortune for himself and his friends.
I'm talking about Baron Nathan Rothschild. Rothschild was a respected French investor who became the stuff of legend during the financial crisis.
It was a terrible time. A building boom ended with a mortgage bubble bursting. This was followed by a swoon in the prices of many industrial commodities. There was even an energy crisis of sorts — an outbreak of equine influenza (horse flu) saw many forms of transportation temporarily grind to a halt.
Europe fought the Franco-Prussian War, which ended in defeat for France. Emperor Napoleon III was captured, and the French government collapsed. The economic woes combined with military defeat allowed socialists to seize control of the French capital. Paris was turned upside down, and mobs ruled.
And that's when Rothschild told his clients ...
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It Was Time To Buy
The story goes that a panic-stricken investor turned up at Rothschild's office and exclaimed, "You advise me to buy securities now? NOW?! The streets of Paris run with blood."
Rothschild, calm as ever, answered, "My dear friend, if the streets of Paris were not running with blood, do you think you would be able to buy at the present prices?"
There is a second part to Rothschild's quote — one that is perhaps even more impressive: Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.
Rothschild proved to be quite prescient. French bankers were able to fund a counter-revolution. And the investments that Rothschild and his friends made doubled in value ... and then went higher!
While many U.S. banks failed in the Panic of 1873, we got off lightly compared to Europe. The global depression lasted until 1879. And the end result was the center of gravity for the world's credit shifted from Europe to the U.S.
Fast-Forward To Today
We've seen a building boom end with a mortgage bubble burst. And we've seen the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index of Raw Industrials, a gauge of the cost of 22 items including scrap copper, cotton and hogs, and a good indicator of economic health, fall off a cliff.
It's down a staggering 39% from its peaks to its lows, as factory production fell 7.3% through November.
Now, though, the CRB Raw Materials Index looks like it's starting to hammer out a bottom. Once a bottom is in place ... the Index could go a LOT higher.
Are Things Bad? Yes!
There are parades of bad news up and down Wall Street and Main Street ...
On Wall Street, the easiest way to get your hands on truckloads of government bailout dollars is to own a bank. Heck, you won't even have to tell the Treasury what you do with the money!
And if you don't own a bank, you could go from being chairman of the Nasdaq to setting up a hedge fund so secretive that your closest friends don't know you're ripping them off for tens of billions of dollars.
On Main Street, manufacturing has slumped to its lowest level in 26 years ... employment has dropped to a six-year low ... retail sales are plummeting. In fact, many experts expect a whopping 25% of U.S. retailers will go bankrupt in 2009.
Problems are rippling around the world, too ...
In Japan, industrial production has taken a header — down 8.1% in November from October.
Even China has caught the recession flu. In Dongguan, where many of Santa's gifts are really made, nearly half of the 3,800 toy factories have closed or plan to shut down. China's steel production has dropped by 12%, and electricity demand is down 9.6%.
Yep ... things are bad. And things in this downturn seem to be going at lightning speed compared to previous economic hard times ...
For example, in the last five months, base metals have fallen in price, on a percentage basis, more than they did during the entirety of the Great Depression!
The question now is: Are we close to blood in the streets ... the time when Rothschild would advise buying?
I'll give you my opinion on that in a bit. First, an important difference between now and the panic of 1873 ...
The Loosest Money Policy Possible.The Long-Term Effects Are Horrific!
In 1873, the U.S. moved to the gold standard, which meant it stopped minting silver dollars altogether. This reduced the domestic money supply, which hurt farmers and anyone else who carried heavy debt loads.
Today, by contrast, we have the loosest money policy possible ...
The U.S. Federal Reserve recently cut its target for overnight interest rates to — zero to 0.25% — its lowest level on record dating to July 1954 — and said it would likely keep it at "exceptionally low levels for some time."
In addition, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have been handing out cash by the hundreds of billions to every Tom, Dick and Citibank who drives by with a sob story.
The long-term effects of that free and easy money policy are horrific!
Through December, Washington had already spent or pledged $8.7 TRILLION. As a result of all the bailouts for banks, automakers and other new federal outlays, our nation's budget deficit is expected to reach $1 TRILLION in 2009.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg ...
The Grandfather Economic Report series calculates that America now owes a total debt (including government, household, business, financial sector, etc.) of $53 trillion. That's $175,154 for every man, woman and child in the country, an increase of $33,781 per family of four over last year.
However, that's longer-term. In the short-term, that easy-money policy could be just what the doctor ordered for an ailing economy.
Sure, it looks like consumers, who power 70% of America's economy, are in a power dive. But we've also been lucky that oil prices have been falling like Wile E. Coyote, and gasoline prices are tumbling, too. That puts more money in consumers' pockets.
While the Grinch may have stolen Christmas, on an inflation-adjusted basis, consumers spent 0.6% more in November than they did the month before. Disposable income also rose on an inflation-adjusted basis, by 1%, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in October.
Plus homeowners have rushed to refinance their loans to cut costs or switch from adjustable-rate mortgages to fixed-rate loans. Recently, mortgage applications jumped to the highest level in five years.
My point is that things may not be as bad as they seem. Maybe we have much worse to come. Or maybe we are near the point where Baron Rothschild would tell his clients to buy.
So when that time comes, what should you buy?
Here Are Three Ideas ...
1) Gold Miners. Gold, with its historic outperformance during times of trouble, is looking better and better. Sure, I've been pounding the table about gold for some time now. And it's been zig-zagging higher. And "buy" signals on select gold stocks are flashing on my board like holiday lights.
2) Oil Companies. Say what? Why buy oil when many analysts are predicting $25 oil in 2009? My reason is simple: Enjoy the cheap oil, because it won't last. We've seen oil prices plunge about 73% in six months. That has never happened in history before — ever.
The current price of crude signals that something is very out of whack in the oil markets. And I can tell you what the effect is: Projects that cost more than the current price of oil are being taken offline — slowly at first. But the process could quickly start to cascade.
That should quickly bring supply and demand in balance. And if prices go higher, we can always bring more production online, right? Maybe.
But the kind of black swan event we've seen in oil markets leaves long and deep scars in the conservative psyches of oilmen. That's why I think it's going to be a while before anyone goes after new deepwater wells that cost $80 a barrel.
So who will profit from this? Major oil companies with lots of cash.
That brings me to my third recommendation ...
3) Big Companies With Lots Of Cash. For smaller industrial firms that relied on seasonal demand and outside capital, the Panic Years of the 1870s put them in one heck of a bind.
As capital reserves dried up, so did their industries. Who thrived? The large companies with guaranteed contracts and the ability to force deals on their suppliers and vendors.
Baron Rothschild would tell you to make the most of troubled times.
Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller had enough capital reserves to finance their own continuing growth. Both bought out their competitors at fire-sale prices.
And today, large, well-capitalized companies could be the way to go.
Indeed, these are tumultuous times. Yet I'm sure that Baron Rothschild would tell you to make the most of them.
I wish you all the best for 2009.
Yours for trading profits,
Sean
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Stress of Shopping For Holiday Gifts

2008-12-29T10:28:00.001-08:00

Three More Year-End Steps for Greater Wealth

2008-12-27T18:19:00.000-08:00

Three More Year-End Steps for Greater Wealth
by Nilus Mattive

First off, I want to take this opportunity to wish you a very happy holiday season! I hope you find plenty of time to celebrate with your friends and family. And I look forward to helping you have your most prosperous year ever in 2009.

Speaking of which, last week I gave you two year-end financial moves to consider. And today I want to show you three more terrific ways to either get tax breaks now or in the New Year.

#1. If you're donating to charity take note ...

An important law has been extended through 2009. Individuals age 70½ and older can still directly transfer up to $100,000 a year from an IRA to qualified charities without having to count those distributions as taxable income. Plus, the transfer still counts toward that person's minimum distribution.

I also want to point out that you do not have to have the money in hand to donate for a 2008 write-off! You can charge your gift this year and it will still count. It doesn't matter if you pay the bill in 2009. Similarly, a check mailed in 2008 counts for 2008.

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#2. Get the maximum amount of money into tax-sheltered vehicles ...

Given the amount of cash being doled out to failing companies ... the myriad problems with Social Security ... and Obama's plan to undertake massive infrastructure projects, you can bet that taxes are only going one way from here on out — UP.

As I mentioned last week, the Roth is a great option. But so are other plans.

For example, if you have self-employment income, I heartily recommend you investigate Solo 401(k) plans. These accounts allow you to sock away very generous amounts of money — as much as $46,000 in 2008 ($51,000 if age 51 or older!). Wow!

Whatever you do, take a little time to research ALL the tax-sheltered accounts that are available to you and your family. Consider not just retirement plans but also education savings accounts like 529 Plans and Coverdell accounts.

Use tax-sheltered accounts to keep as much of your money away from Washington as you can!
Add it all up and you'll be amazed at how much money you can legally keep away from federal, state and local governments (at least for a decade or two).

#3. Do NOT remove money from retirement accounts if you don't have to ...

I know the impulse to pull money out of your accounts might be strong right now. And some of Obama's possible moves in 2009 might make it even easier for you to do so. For example, he has suggested allowing workers to withdraw as much as $10,000 from a retirement account penalty-free.

But I do not think such a move would be wise unless you absolutely must have the money for an emergency. You would still have to pay taxes on the withdrawal, and would miss out on tax-sheltered compounding.

If anything, I am hoping that one of Obama's other proposals comes to pass — a temporary suspension of required minimum distributions for retirees. That would allow some people to keep more money away from the tax man ... just the kind of holiday gift us investors hope for!

Best wishes and happy holidays,

Nilus

P.S. If you didn't sign up to receive the Gala Dividend Superstars 2009 Annual Forecast Issue, it's not too late! This very special 12-page issue just went to press today, and I've decided to extend the deadline to get it at a very special price. Click here to get your copy right now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Michelle Johncke, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau and Leslie Underwood.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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Big Bucks Home Business

2008-12-22T11:39:00.000-08:00

Big Bucks Because You Have an Internet Home Business

It seems that Dr. Suzanne has really done her
homework (especially for YOUR benefit!)

First she correctly determined that according to Forrester Research
(which is perhaps the most powerful & accurate online research
database to date!) "health-related" products and
information is by far the most sought after things anywhere online.

Nope! -- Despite what you might have thought, "sex,"
"porn," and "UFOs" are NOT the most searched for
items on the Internet (but "health stuff" is hands down!)

Second, Dr. Suzanne's "Top Secret Fat Loss Secret" shook
the entire World with its release recently - and she's even made a
special lead-capture page that you also get central to this amazing
site!

Simple: because Dr. Suzanne's affiliates are making millions right
now with what is perhaps one of ClickBank's HOTTEST products (and
this same product is the central seller at your new health e-Biz
site!)

Third, the site you get also acts as a "database" that
never stops growing so that you get 10,000's of customers you can
continue to sell to over and over again other things!

Why is this important?

Again, very simple: anyone who's wise online knows that
"backend" sales are chief to making long term and extra
profits!

Dr. Suzanne's NEW "Health Biz In a Box" complete and
fully-operational website you get for next to nothing contains an
electronic "Automatic Sales Manager" (like a salesman
robot - Ha!) built-in that works to upsell to your list over and
over again so that you enjoy additional "automatic"
income!

Fourth, Dr. Suzanne health-biz site also includes a complete
health-related products Shopping Mall so that your site visitors
stopping by are likely to buy at least 1 to up to 90 additional
products creating instantly for you up to over a dozen other income
streams!

This way you get the "most bang for your buck" so to
speak!

As if all this weren't enough, the fifth (and perhaps the very best)
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site and guides your site visitors (like a tour guide) through your
entire site and what it has to offer!

Dr. Suzanne carefully tested the site both WITH and WITHOUT
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"Rachel" boosted sites sales by as much as 396% (meaning
nearly 4 times as many sales!)

Dr. Suzanne believes that having the spokesmodel adds credibility as
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much higher "conversion-to-sales" ration at large.

And ALL these amazing features stand to make YOU very, very rich as
you get all of them with your own "Health Biz In a Box"
website!

If any of this floats your boat, then I highly recommend you get
over to:

...and because rumor has it that Dr. Suzanne may put a ceiling on
the number of these Internet "health-biz" sites she's
giving out in order to avoid everyone having one and risking market
saturation.

Already people securing theirs have had nothing but great things to
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"I'm so happy with mine! ... Having this site professionally
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As you can see by these people's comments, everyone grabbing their
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I guess I should have added above that not only do you get all the
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