Real Estate from the Heartland, Lincoln’s Hometown

Economy Slams Springfield Illinois Housing Market

2008-12-08T06:11:00.003-06:00

The housing market in Springfield Illinois is known nationally as one of the most stable in the United States. Home of the state capitol, and with a primarily white collar employment base, significant swings are seldom experienced.

Following four consecutive years of exceeding four thousand closed home sales annually, The Capital Area Association of Realtors member brokers report a significant swing. If Springfield Illinois is a benchmark for stability, this doesn't bode well for the state or nation. The national economy, the stock market plunge eroding 401k's, and bail out mania at the federal level is dampening consumer confidence in this historically stable market.

Preliminary sales figures reported for November 2008 show a drop of 113 home sales closed, down by a whopping 35.7%. Sales pending were down by 95, or by 30.9% which isn't good news for December or January closings.

An oddity in home sales trends appeared during the second half of 2008. Sales pending contracts have declined every month in 2008. Following a 14% drop (-62) in sales pending in August, closed home sales were reported up by 2.9% (+9 sales) in September. September sales pending fell 15% (-54) but October closed sales were up .7% (+2). Then October sales pending fell another 15.5% (-50).

The question of this oddity, home listings going under contract falling by double digits while closed listings the following month increasing, didn't make any sense. Reality stepped in, and the correction arrived in November with the largest year over year monthly decline in closed sales (-113/-35.7%). The 30.9% (-95) drop in sales pending have the Springfield housing market slowing to a crawl.

This is bad news for home builders, and home sellers that must sell. In addition to fewer buyers in the market, these home sellers continue to contend with record levels of inventory for sale.

The flip side of this coin is that this is great news for home buyers. With the Fed combating the slowing national economy by lowering interest rates, the bond market has finally responded, and 30 year mortgage rates are at lows seen only once since the 1960's. The 30 year rates have ranged between 5.125% and 5.5% the past two weeks.

Record inventory of homes for sale for this time of year, incredibly cheap interest rates, and the smallest demand for homes in seven years all add up to be a great time to buy a home.

The challenge for home sellers in the Springfield Illinois housing market to get sold is the greatest since the high interest rate years of the late 1970's and early 1980's. If you or someone you know must sell a home during these extremely difficult market conditions, call 217-652-7653 to register for the free Home Sellers Seminar.

There will be two seminars for home sellers. The first will be January 15, 2009; the second February 12, 2009. The seminar runs from 6:00pm to 9:00pm at The Capital Area Association of Realtors office building on Robbins Rd. Hosted by Fritz Pfister of RE/MAX Professionals. Reservations are required. Seating is limited to the first 50 registrants.

Fritz Pfister is a licensed real estate broker with over 21 years service as a full time Realtor.

Attitude and Spirit Are the Solution to the Economy

2008-11-17T04:25:00.003-06:00

In my opinion the news this week is telling us the attitude of the American consumer, and it's not good. Reported today in the SJR Marketplace section (11-15-08) is that retail sales fell by the largest amount on record. What grabbed my attention was the decline was greater than the decline following the attacks of 9-11-01. Are the problems the American consumer faces today greater than on 9-11?

Consumer spending is the fuel that drives the economy. The ripple effect as businesses cut inventories due to lower demand from consumers, results in job losses in the production sector. Fewer jobs means fewer home buyers at a time when there is a near record number of homes for sale.

Money Magazine named the top 100 cities to live in the country this past week. Springfield Illinois was not on the list. However the report stated that the number of jobs in Springfield grew by 5% between 2000 and 2007. Kind of reminds me of those turtles featured in the ad promoting high speed Internet.

It appears from these reports that the economy will continue to slow down. How should we react to this reality? I for one will continue to do the best job I can to help local home sellers get sold, and local home buyers find the right home at a fair price. I choose not to be part of the slow down.

This is what I recommend each of you do. Whatever your chosen profession, be the best you can be. Productivity will be key to turning this economy around. Productivity begins with your attitude.

We continue to see the effects of the slowing economy in all areas, private and public. Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes reported this week that due to falling tax revenues the state is behind $4 billion in payments to state vendors, which could increase to $5 billion by March, and that it is taking 20 weeks to pay a bill once received. Lord knows how long the billing was held before reaching the comptrollers office. As a result many health care providers are now refusing medicaid patients.

This impacts the local economy as service providers and vendors for the state go unpaid, and must borrow to make payroll to continue to stay in business. This may likely lead to additional job cut backs for these vendors, if not entire business failures. It's hard to stay in business when your client doesn't pay.

The impact of the slowing economy is showing in the local housing market. I reported here last week that in spite of home listings going under contract falling by double digits three straight months, closed sales were holding steady. The falling sales pending are apparently catching up as closed sales the first half of November are down by over 31%.

So far this year the number of closed home sales is down by 12.2%, or by 439 home sales. This is tracking for around 3500 home sales following 4 consecutive years that surpassed 4000 annually. This is not a collapse, however it is painful to hundreds of home sellers.

Do not be dismayed! Opportunities abound for families in the market to buy a home. The inventory of homes for sale stands at 1875 today, a six and a half month supply as we enter the historically slowest selling season of the year. Do you think serious home sellers aren't prepared to deal with you?

The opportunity for home buyers that desire to buy new construction is the best in years. The Springfield Illinois market is on pace for 220 to 230 new home sales in 2008, down nearly 33% from the high of 339 set in 2005. The 168 listings of new construction available for sale today represents an 8.6 month inventory. The opportunity to make a deal with a home builder has never been better!

Yes these are tenuous economic times, however we shall survive, and might I suggest there will even be those that thrive. I choose to be in the thrive category. I hope you make the same decision. If we all collectively decide to do our best at our chosen professions, to be as productive as possible, then the local economy can prosper.

With Veterans Day occurring this past week I am reminded of a commander during the Korean War. With 300 troops, low on ammunition, in below freezing temperatures, and surrounded by over 10,000 Chinese soldiers, what did this commander say to his troops? "They can't get away from us now!" Or the commander during the time of the Battle of the Bulge when surrounded and vastly outnumbered by the Germans when the Americans received an ultimatum of surrender now or everyone dies. What was the American commander's response? "Aw nuts!"

That's the American spirit in action. We face far less daunting challenges. "Opportunity can't get away from us now!", and "Aw Nuts" let's get to work!

This is economic war. With the proper attitude, the rekindling of the American spirit, and dedication to be the best you can be, prosperity for all can be achieved. In this regard President elect Obama is correct, the economy will be saved from the bottom up. It is up to each of us individually as to how we will react to the circumstances of today. What do you choose to do?

Home Sales Springfield Illinois October 2008

2008-11-05T06:07:00.003-06:00

Could the local housing market be hitting bottom, leveling off, and posing to rebound? There are several indicators that seem to point in that direction.

Member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS report 283 closed home sales in October 2008, down only 4 from October 2007. Only 420 new listings were added to the inventory compared to 523 in October of 2007. Through November 3, new listings are down by 579.

Closed home sales up slightly in September, for only the second time in 2008, followed by near dead even sales in October, could be the start of a good trend. If closed sales hold steady, and the number of homes being listed continue to decline, then the imbalance between buyers and sellers will return to more normal levels.

The number of closed sales in October is surprising following sales pending in September falling by 63, or -17.5%. Yet closed sales are off only by 4? Hard to explain.

Let's see if that trend continues because sales pending fell in October by 57 or -17.7%. I can't explain how home listings going under contract can fall double digits and closed sales remain level.

With the election of Barack Obama, there could be an uptick in consumer confidence. The negative press on the economy by the main stream media which was biased heavily toward Obama, just may start running more balanced and positive stories regarding the economy. With consumer confidence at near record lows, a positive press would be welcomed.

Springfield Mayor Tim Davlin believes Springfield will benefit from Obama's election. Although Davlin doesn't know Obama's stance on earmarks, he has commented that Texas, and Florida sure haven't suffered the preceding eight years.

Mayor Davlin says he will place a plaque where Obama stood to announce his candidacy at the Old State Capitol building. Hopefully that will help attract tourists. Too bad Blagojevich is closing our historical sites or Springfield could really be poised for increased tourism dollars.

Regardless, it appears the Springfield Illinois housing market may be looking at a rebound, and a more level playing field between buyers and sellers.

Reprint of Veterans Day Salute 2005 before you vote 2008

2008-10-27T06:59:00.001-05:00

The day this is written is November 11, 2005, Veterans Day. This week I digress from real estate to honor those who make it possible to even have a real estate market, and the quiet enjoyment of home ownership.

Thank you to all veterans past, from the trenches and mustard gas of WWI, to the WWII greatest generation that served unselfishly to free nations and mankind, to the Korean troops who when surrounded on all sides and outnumbered 100 to 1 said "They can't get away from us now!", and to the veterans of Viet Nam, who so bravely and honorably served yet had their mission ruined by a biased liberal media, and dishonest service members. Thank you all, you are appreciated.

However the message today is for those who currently serve. The American Family is behind you, is proud of you, believes in your mission, and will see you through. Pay no attention to the politicians that call your commander in chief a liar without evidence, who tout intelligence was manipulated to obtain permission to go to war, and pay no attention to the liberal press and media blasting these false messages daily to the American people. Pay no attention to polls that say your president has lost support for you and the war. Pay no attention because the silent majority is not counted in these polls.

Today and everyday I pray for your safety, and for your victory over terror. Pay no attention to the biased media attempting to influence America to their view, the silent majority despises them for their actions. The media, and liberal politicians will do and say anything for their own personal gain, they care for nothing other than power, and duty is a foreign concept to them.

To you who serve today, thank you for rising above the din of the liberal media, the selfengrandizing liberal politician, and answering the call to duty. The terrorists are evil and have taken a vow to kill Americans, their families, and their values of freedom and democracy. Yours is a noble mission.

To you in the silent majority, understanding what is at stake, the very survival of democracy and freedom, it is time to be heard. Let those who serve today know of your love, honor, respect, and support for them.

To you who continue to obstruct and subvert the effort toward victory, either form your elected positions, or liberal media, I say stand down this Veterans Day as we salute those who serve out of duty, and not for personal gain, as you selfishly do whenever you attack the mission of brave and noble Americans in service.

To you who serve today, Thank You, and God Bless you. You are appreciated by more than the silent majority. Ask your fellow veterans who have seen the gleam in the eyes of an oppressed man, woman, or child experiencing the first taste of freedom, and know with your victory, the children of tomorrow can have that gleam in their eyes.

Veterans Day Tribute 2007, Reprint Before You Vote 2008

2008-10-27T04:41:00.003-05:00

Veterans Day 2007. This is a tribute to our veterans, and to those who serve today.

The Greatest Generation of the 20th century saved democracy from the evils of Nazi fascism, and the Imperial conquest of Japan. This generation born in the teens and 1920's grew up during the great depression. They knew first hand real hardship. When called to duty they did so without hesitation. Hundreds of thousands made the ultimate sacrifice, while millions returned home victorious. Most never spoke of the war. They did their duty fulfilling their role in preserving democracy, freedom and their nation.

The Korean veterans fought against great odds, and an Army many times its size. They secured the freedom of South Korea and established a barrier to the advancement of communism. The Korean veteran added to the rich history of the United States of America as the country that has fought and died to free more people in the world than any other country in the history of mankind.

Next the Viet Nam war. Once again our brave young men and women answered the call to duty. This was a new era that brought a war home to the living rooms of America through television. As all wars are hell, this divided the nation and great opposition to the war resulted. Still the brave served with valor until funding to continue the war was cut off by the liberal party in control of congress. These veterans did not return to parades in celebration of victory. Still these veterans returned home content in the fact they had served their country and performed their duty. Victory would have been theirs had they been permitted to do so. Like the greatest generation most did not and do not speak of their war time experiences.

However a few spoke out, only to be discovered to be fabricating stories of atrocities as they falsely accused their fellow servicemen. This was done to garner support to oppose the war, and for personal gain. One such person who put personal gain, and power ahead of duty and country would be nominated for the presidency of the greatest country on earth. His election was lost in part due to brave veterans coming forward to tell the truth and expose the lies.

Today we have a generation of new heroes serving America. They were not born into hardship as those in the Great Depression, or grow up during the social upheaval of the 1960's. This generation was born into a society of prosperity, and without a draft requiring their service. Those serving today are true volunteers, and patriots that recognize the threat to our very existence posed to our great nation by radical Islam. This generation witnessed an attack on our homeland taking the lives of thousands of innocent civilians. This was and is a new type of enemy, one without uniform, humane consciousness, sworn to the death to see to the destruction of our country, until the world is ruled by Islam.

Similar to the Viet Nam war these heroes serve within a 24 hour news cycle, with cameras on the ground, playing into the hands of the opposition to the war at home. The opposition to the war is supported again by the liberal American party with the complicity of a liberal main stream media. Members of this party once again falsely accuse American heroes of atrocities through their congressmen, have their actions compared to Nazi's and communists by one of their senators, have sponsored 56 resolutions against their mission, the liberal party openly talks of immediate withdrawal supporting defeat, of appeasement through diplomacy with madmen, have their president of the United States Senate declare the war lost, have their Speaker of the House of Representatives say there is no light at the end of the tunnel to the war, hoping for the failure of the mission, falsely accuse their commander in chief of lying, say their commander on the ground betrayed us, desire to provide enemy combatants with rights of American citizens while accusing these heroes and their president of torture against an enemy that takes no prisoners, who mutilates and decapitates captured Americans.

Why does the liberal American party oppose the mission? Solely to regain power. Their goal is to capture all three branches of government in the next election. Power above all; mission, country, or security. On Veterans Day you will see these liberal politicians at ceremonies under the pretense of supporting the troops, when their ulterior motive is the defeat of the troops in the field. One of their congressmen is on record stating, if things go well (in Iraq), that would be bad for our party. Party over country?

Yes this is the greatest generation of the new century, to have the vision to see the danger posed to their beloved country, way of life, freedom, and still continue to serve because they know there is light at the end of the tunnel. They provide the light, while the enemy on the ground, and the opposition at home provides the darkness. Yet they rise above the din to the higher calling, and continue to sacrifice and serve.

As the liberal party calls for the defunding of the war, they know this is not Viet Nam. It won't be visions of overloaded helicopters rising above an embassy for America to turn its back on their allies in retreat, with the enemy rolling in, to imprison and annihilate millions, content to stay within their borders no longer posing a threat.

Those who serve today know they must provide the light at the end of the tunnel, for if the liberals succeed in defunding this war, this is an enemy that will not be content to remain within their borders, they have no borders. This time America would not only be deserting their allies again to certain death and annihilation, but would also leave an enemy sworn to our destruction, in control of an oil rich, war funding country from which to plan and launch attacks, with a radical Islamic madman as a neighbor already in the process of developing nuclear weapons. Yes the stakes are catastrophically higher today, and that is why these volunteers continue to serve, against an enemy on the ground, and against the liberal opposition that chooses to ignore the danger for the sake of power. That is why this is the greatest generation of this century. They are heroes in every sense of the word.

To those that serve today, under circumstances as no other generation in history, may God grant you victory and safe passage home. May the enemy and all those that oppose your success, suffer the defeat they so rightly deserve.

Today I say thank you and God bless you to all veterans, and especially to the Greatest Generation of this and the past century. Gods speed.

By Veterans Day of 2008 the future, and security of our country will have been charted. I speak of the American liberal party which is today's Democrat party. The party of my parents has been hijacked by the radical left and no longer stands for the values of Roosevelt, Truman, or Kennedy. Politics used to stop at the waters edge. Reid, Durbin, Pelosi, Murtha, and their com padres place their personal gain, and the desire for power above the best interests of the United States of America. Ask Senator Lieberman. They are a disgrace to our heritage.

This tribute is made in the memory of Tom Healy, and Jerry Cooper class of 1967 Kenton Sr. High School, Kenton Ohio. Viet Nam veterans both.

How the Presidential Candidates Economic Plans Will Impact the Housing Market

2008-10-23T04:46:00.005-05:00

Time to get serious about choosing our next president with the election a mere twelve days away. Who are you voting for and why? In my opinion the housing market will be impacted by the plans of who is elected. Based upon their campaign pledges, here is what to expect.

McCain promises not to raise income taxes on anyone, and has proposed corporate, and capital gains tax cuts that will help struggling companies to keep, and hopefully add jobs. McCain promotes more drilling of domestic oil, and the building of nuclear power plants. On taxes and energy McCain will allow you to keep more of the money you earn to be spent as you choose.

Obama famously said last week he wants to "spread the wealth around", with his proposal to raise income taxes on families and small businesses earning over $250,000, and he will redistribute that wealth to 95% of American workers by cutting their taxes. This seems more of a promise being made to get elected than what may occur if elected. The Brooking Institute, the Wall Street Journal and many other studies show the numbers don't add up.

Pelosi and Reid are reported to already have legislation written to rescind the off shore drilling bill recently passed in Congress. Obama says he's for nuclear power if the waste can be properly handled. This is code for no nuclear power plants. The Navy, France, and other countries recycle their waste. This is an empty argument to pacify environmental extremists. Just as we get relief from $4 a gallon gas the supply would be artificially lowered again which would result in a return to higher prices.

Obama also proposes raising corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, and wants to implement windfall profits taxes on oil companies. The only problem is, corporations don't pay taxes with their money, they use yours by raising prices. Higher prices would not be welcome during a financial downturn, it would only make the downturn more intense.

The Obama plan could be devastating for job creation. Although Obama claims over 95% of small businesses won't see a tax increase, that proves to be a false claim according to The Small Business Administration with records indicating over 50% of small businesses earn in excess of $250,000. In 2007 small businesses were credited with adding over 300,000 jobs while big businesses shed jobs. Under Obama's plan taxes would go up on the only sector creating jobs.

The direction of the country, the economy, the value of your home, and the ability to sell your home will be directly impacted by these tax, and energy policies. The socialist wealth redistribution plans of Obama will stifle investment, cause job losses, and seriously reduce tax revenues to the federal government. To raise taxes during a financial crisis does not make any economic sense, it's like siphoning gas from your own tank, and expecting to travel farther.

The current slowdown in our local housing market, and the national housing market would be exacerbated if Obama wins, and it looks as if he may. Any home seller that gets an offer from a serious buyer should consider taking the offer while they have the opportunity.

Both candidates plans increase spending after accounting for their proposed spending cuts, and tax proposals. In other words continued deficit spending. This week congressman Barney Frank said deficit spending would have to take a second seat to new spending, and there are plenty of rich people we can tax later to recover that money. Unconscionable in my opinion, however clearly states the Democratic Party's new plan. Spend then tax.

When you are deciding who to vote for keep this in mind. If Obama wins, and attacks the very businesses that are creating jobs, taxes the rich ($250,000 and up), and promises to give you a tax cut, even if you aren't paying any income taxes; the old saying "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is" will come into play. It can't be done without causing massive job losses, or raising taxes on more than just those earning over $250,000.

If Obama wins, and Democrats control the Senate, and House be prepared for sweeping changes to the left, and an unchecked power to do as they will. The citizens of Springfield, and of Illinois know the economic catastrophe caused in Illinois as a result of Democrats controlling all three branches of state government. It will occur on a much grander scale nationally.

The bottom line is the housing market will be severely impacted. Real estate is, has been, and always will be a supply and demand commodity. When supply is greater than the demand, the very conditions we experience today in Springfield, Illinois, and across most of the nation, we call that a buyers market. Fewer jobs means fewer buyers. More taxes means less money available to be spent on job growth, job retention, goods and services. Looks like we'll be in a buyers market for an indefinite period of time should Obama win, and implement his campaign promises.

The housing market in Springfield, Illinois, and across the nation will not automatically turn into a sellers market if McCain is elected. In Illinois there is a long road ahead due to the paralysis in state government. McCain will most likely be facing the most liberal congress in history, and will struggle to implement any of his plans. That, in my opinion would be better than no checks and balances whatsoever. At least the housing market will have a better chance for recovery.

Bailout Will Harm Responsible Homeowners

2008-10-04T07:52:00.004-05:00

What a week. Where to begin? As you know a massive government bailout was passed this week with the goal of saving the economy. Today's front page headlines in the SJR "Bailout is coming, but will it work?" Good question. In my opinion the headline should have been "Bailout coming, was it necessary?"

The bailout represents much more than the $857 billion dollars of your tax money pledged to be spent to save the economy. Once again irresponsible earmarks were attached to the plan to bribe congressmen to change their votes. Rum distilleries in the Virgin Islands get $20 million, wooden arrow makers get $8 million, and corporations get a $300 per employee write off for employees that ride bikes to work.

The pilfering of the treasury for these earmarks is not what I'm referring to. Read the last paragraph quoting Barney Frank in the article. To quote: "Congress will tackle next year; overhauling housing policy and financial regulation in a legislative effort compared to the New Deal". Welcome ladies and gentlemen to America's new and improved socialized housing market.

I will bring you up to speed when I have read the bailout bill housing clauses. Reported so far is a homeowners protection clause, that will establish an expanded bureaucracy to help people in foreclosure save their homes. In other words a bureaucrat will tell banks to adjust interest rates, and lower principal on loans. The bill also gives bankruptcy judges the same power.

Ninety five percent of Americans pay their mortgages on time. What this bill does is to reward people for defaulting on their mortgages, with paying down their principal with your tax dollars, and giving better rates than responsible mortgage payers can receive. In the name of helping an infinitesimal number of homeowners defrauded by predatory lenders, this bill throws out the baby with the bath water.

Do you think rewarding bad behavior will encourage or discourage more bad behavior? Hey, I don't have to pay my mortgage, I'll just go to the local housing administrator and he'll have the evil bank that locked me in the basement and beat me with a rubber hose until I signed a mortgage I couldn't afford, reduce what I owe and lower my interest rate. Hey I might even end up with some extra beer money with the lower payment. Before you decide to stop paying your mortgage in hopes of the housing administrator shaking down your bank, you'd better be sure your political affiliation matches the administrators!

Was this bill necessary? In my opinion, no. If the financial markets were in such bad shape why are Citigroup and Wells Fargo fighting over Wachcovia? Why did Warren Buffet invest billions in Goldman Sachs, Why did Bank of America buy WashMu? In other words there were strong companies, and weak companies. The market would have sorted this all out without government intervention spending hundreds of billions of your tax dollars.

Why the crisis? Why the rush? Could it be because the government caused this mess? Absolutely. Investor's Business Daily has chronicled the genesis of the meltdown. What you are paying for in this bailout is a failed social engineering project. In an attempt to get as many low income families mortgages, the government created this mess.

Mix in a helping of corruption, and fraud at the governmental political plumbs called Fannie-Mae and Freddie Mac and you have the perfect storm. Hundreds of millions of dollars were paid to political operatives with no mortgage lending backgrounds to manage these entities. Millions of dollars were made in campaign contributions by Fannie Mae. The very politicians in charge of oversight were bought off. Those that ran Fannie Mae and headed the oversight committees should be investigated for fraud, tried, and convicted.

What happens? The very ones responsible for this fraud carried out against you the taxpayer, are now going to be in charge of the financial markets, and housing markets "New Deal". God help us all.

Yesterday the American housing market was socialized by the government. What will happen to the value of your home as a result? Probably not much for the short term, however when banks are ordered by bankruptcy judges, and local housing administrators to take losses so people can keep their homes, those losses will be made up elsewhere. Namely higher profit margins to absorb potential losses. In other words, higher payments for the responsible home owner.

What other negative consequences will you as a homeowner suffer as the result of this government action? Only time will tell, but big brother will have a say.

It is my hope and prayer that every congressman, and senator that voted for this ill advised bill be voted out of office. It is tragic that both presidential candidates voted for this white elephant.

In the name of saving the economy the government is now imposing itself upon one of America's most valued liberties, home ownership.

Wait a couple years comrade and I'll see you at the commune!

Bailout or Help Out?

2008-09-27T07:41:00.002-05:00

What drives the economy? Consumer spending. Does consumer confidence affect consumer spending?

When the president of the U.S. holds a prime time speech and announces that the financial markets are on the verge of collapse that would throw the economy into deep recession, what does that do for consumer confidence?

The president has requested a $700,000,000,000 bailout of Wall Street financial institutions by recommending the government purchase mortgage backed securities, with unknown value, from these firms. The president states failure to act quickly will lead to recession.

How does the congress respond? Heads of banking committees in the house and senate, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank propose a plan for the bailout. To quote economist Dr. Walter Williams, this is like calling an arsonist to put out a fire.

How did these financial institutions get to the point of collapse? Our government. We now know that in 1999 Secretary of Housing Andrew Cuomo in response to Clinton administration directives, ordered Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac to make 50% of all loans to low or middle income families. They went so far as to change lending requirements that lenders had to count unemployment checks, and welfare payments as income to qualify for a loan. The goal was to put as many low income families into home ownership as possible. Who could be against that?

We now know the Bush administration attempted to reform the regulations on these quasi government companies 12 times. The most aggressive was the reform act of 2005. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd blocked the legislation, with the help of some Republican legislators. To paraphrase Frank in 1995, the problems are exaggerated, these institutions are not in trouble. Now we want these two to oversee a bailout, and reform?

Frank and Dodd failed the American people in historic fashion, as has President Bush for not getting the reforms passed.

This is important because what has been proposed by the president and the Democrats won't correct the problems that created this mess. Failure to do so will lead to a future meltdown. How many of you believe throwing your hard earned tax dollars at Wall Street will solve the problem? How many of you want to live through this again?

Thank God for the Republicans in congress for putting the brakes on this insane bailout proposal, by proposing a free market solution. The proposal is to create a Federal Insurance fund to cover these bad mortgages, that will accomplish the same goal of the $700,000,000,000 Wall Street welfare check that you would pay for.

In my opinion a free market solution in lieu of the presidents, and Democrats plan to bailout Wall Street firms, adding nearly a trillion dollars to our debt, is much more desirable.

Here's why. Did you notice what happened to the price of oil this past week? The biggest one day increase in history, taking the price for a barrel of oil well above the $100 mark again.

What caused this run up in price? The threat that the president's proposal could become reality, which certainly would save Wall Street financiers, however would devalue the dollar seriously at a time the dollar was rebounding in strength. Investors ran from the stock market to commodities once again. Another reason the president's plan is wrong headed, dangerous, and should be defeated in congress. Not only will your tax liability increase, the cruel tax of higher fuel prices would be worse than ever.

The Democrats sure seemed to be in a hurry to pass the presidents plan with some quid pro quo attachments. Do you think Frank and Dodd want this to be swept under the rug as quickly as possible?

Why haven't the Democrats passed a plan yet? They have a majority in both the house and senate. The president is in agreement, there's no veto threat. Why not move forward with the bailout? Because 80% of Americans are against the plan, and the Democrats don't want to go back to the campaign trail during recess to face an angry constituency.

Americans are fed up with our dysfunctional, corrupt, wasteful, and ineffective government. That is why the taxpayers may be saved from the arsonists called upon to put out the fire.

The value of your home is at stake. The ability to sell your home when you need or want to is at stake. Time to get our economy rolling again, time to restore confidence in government, by finally saying no to the miscreants who want you to pay for their social engineering project gone bad. Call or e-mail your senators and congressmen today. Tell them if they vote for a bailout instead of a help out, you'll vote them out.

August Slump in Springfield Illinois Real Estate Sales

2008-09-08T06:00:00.004-05:00

Simply stated, August stunk for the local housing market in Springfield Illinois. Closed home sales down 17.5% by 73. Sales pending down 17.1% by 76. Median sale price down 1.7% by $2000. The average sale price down 2.6% by $3493.

Through the first eight months of 2008 closed sales are down 14.1% by 409. One month was up, one even, and six of the eight months sales declined.

For the year sales pending are down 13.6% by 490. The median sale price has fallen to dead even with 2007. The average sale price is up 3.8% by $4744.

The inventory of homes listed for sale continues to run at record levels with 1970 available today. That represents a 6.4 month supply of homes for sale at the current pace of sales.

There you have it, straight forward with no sugar coating. This is the slowest housing market for selling a home in the Springfield Illinois market since 2001, following four years of record setting sales.

What if you must sell your home? You had better do your homework, hiring an experienced agent who has proven marketing systems, and one who will be honest with you about price. The inexperienced agent will struggle with pricing, the agent needing a listing will tell you what you want to hear, and 99% of the agents won't know enough to recommend a pricing plan.

The homes that are priced the best for their condition, location, and amenities will sell. The others will have to wait until 2009. Of course there are exceptions to every rule, there will be a few lucky home sellers, which reminds me what car dealers say; there's a butt for every seat.

With consumer confidence lagging due to high prices, especially at the gas pump, and grocery store it sure doesn't help when the media continues to poison the well.

Thank God only 25% of people now receive their news from print media. The Business section of today's (9-6-08) State Journal Register would make you think it's 1929 with people jumping from the ledges!

Here's what I refer to: main headline, huge and bold; "Foreclosures not contained". Read the story. You'll notice the story includes people behind on their payments lumped in with actual foreclosures.

What a crock. And publishers wonder why newspapers are becoming extinct? Slanted reporting with an agenda is not what people want to read. What happened to objective journalism?

Oh there's more, second largest headline; "Jobless rate climbs to 6.1%, unemployment hits five year high". The truth it is, however nowhere will you read; "following five years of record low unemployment", or "unemployment less than half of other countries". Purpose driven reporting maybe?

Oh, there's more; small side article with bold but tiny header; "Oil price falls to $106.23". Read the article. The lowest price since April. This is good news folks. Why has the economy struggled? The pull back in consumer spending due to families paying the cruel tax of higher gas, energy, and food prices.

No where will you read about falling interest rates. With a record number of homes for sale, home prices trending down, and falling interest rates, now is a great time to be a buyer of Springfield Illinois real estate.

If the local paper had an inkling of desire to help the economy the main story should have been; "Falling gas prices and interest rates good news for consumers!".

This economy will rebound when people can keep more of their hard earned dollars to spend on something besides filling up their cars with gas, paying through the nose at the grocery checkout, paying the electric bill, and the soon to come natural gas bill. Who can blame families for pulling back? Some can't afford to buy anything else, while those who can afford to, don't. Negative headlines and slanted stories exacerbate the perception all is bad.

So congratulations SJR, in my opinion you are part of the problem, certainly no part of any solution to a slowing economy. The September 6 edition is proof positive.

If the State Journal Register continues to do everything they can to create a negative psychology within the economy, then they will be contributing to their own demise! Adios print media.

This is a shame. I enjoy reading the paper with my morning coffee. At least when there is objective journalism.

The Price of Oil and Price of Your Home

2008-07-30T04:48:00.002-05:00

Friday's edition (July 25) of the SJR reported the increasing unemployment numbers, the falling home prices nationally, and the June home sales for The Capital Area Association of Realtors. Not much good news to be found in those articles, because that's the way it is. A reality check if you will.

Then today the headlines on page one state gas can easily return to $4 a gallon. You can connect the dots here pretty easily. High gas prices lead to higher food prices, less consumer spending, sending unemployment up, home sales down, and home prices down.

Research Professor Bob Podlasek of Bradley University confirmed what I have stated is the reason for high gas prices, to quote the professor; "We are in a short supply situation right now. When supply is down, prices go up. It's as simple as that."

I have stated here that as gas, food, and utility prices go, so goes the economy. That means everything if you are a home owner. Whether you will be able to sell your home when you need or desire to sell. What the value of your home will be. As the professor stated about gas prices, the same is true for your home. If the supply is high, and we are at record levels of homes for sale, and demand is weak, sales have slowed to a pace not seen locally since 2002, your value goes down. It is as simple as that. A reality check.

The upcoming presidential election will have a major impact upon gas, utility, and food prices, all which will directly impact the value of your home, and the ability to sell your home.

Here are the stated positions. Barack Obama says he is against additional drilling, and nuclear power plant construction. He wants to raise taxes to fund "green industries" to develop alternative energy sources to oil. Obama has also stated he is not opposed to high fuel prices, he just wished they hadn't risen so rapidly. He would have preferred a more gradual increase.

This plan will do nothing to increase the supply, and therefore will keep prices high. The result will be diminished disposable income, as families pay a greater portion of their earnings in higher gas, utility, and food prices. This will lead to less consumer spending, higher unemployment, and inflation leading to higher interest rates. This will result in fewer home buyers with diminished buying power, and the value of your home will fall.

John McCain supports drilling offshore and building nuclear power plants.

This plan will not bring relief in the short term because it will take two to three years to see the increased supply arrive at the market. However futures traders will hesitate to drive up prices with an impending increase in the supply of oil.

The building of nuclear power plants will stabilize electric rates, and drilling where currently prohibited will access a reported 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas deposits that will lead to stabilized home utility costs.

I would propose to add the following. Immediately approve all refinery expansion permits that have been stalled by environmental groups. Trim the seven year application process for new refineries to 60 days.

Open drilling in ANWR, offshore, and in the continental U.S.

Eliminate the 35% corporate tax on oil producing companies that explore and discover oil in these now prohibited areas.

Eliminate the Federal 18 cents per gallon gas tax.

Replace the gas tax at the pump with a 10% sales tax on oil producers for oil delivered to U.S. refineries. Impose a 35% sales tax on oil placed for sale on the world market.

Retain 25% of those tax revenues for infrastructure improvements now paid for by the federal gas tax.

Retain 5% of those tax dollars to provide grants to the science departments at every University and College in the U.S. for research into a viable replacement for oil as an energy source.

Keep 1/2% of those tax dollars in a pool to pay a bonus to the science department that succeeds in discovering or inventing a viable, affordable alternative fuel to oil.

The race would be on just as when Kennedy said we'll put a man on the moon. Oil companies will race to deliver more oil, and science departments will race to discover a viable replacement fuel. We all will win.

The reality is that our economy, the jobs of working families, the values of their homes, the ability to sell their homes, industry, transportation, and prosperity is dependent upon oil. Affordable oil. Like it or not, that is the reality. Oil is to the economy as oxygen is to our body.

We have the resources available to increase the supply of oil, natural gas, and build nuclear power plants in an environmentally friendly way, until the altruistic day environmentalists dream of when oil is replaced as our primary source of fuel.

This November you will get to vote. You can vote for a plan that responds to the economic reality of today, or you can vote for an altruistic plan that ignores economic reality. Your choice. You can vote for higher prices or you can vote for lower prices. It is as simple as that. A reality check.

The Impact of New Construction Upon The Housing Market, Springfield Illinois

2008-07-20T07:02:00.004-05:00

Real estate in Springfield Illinois in 2008 is experiencing a slowdown for the first time since the 1990's. What is interesting is the impact new home sales have upon the housing market.

Remember following 9-11 how the Fed began lowering interest rates to boost economic activity? When mortgage rates became seriously low in 2002 the local housing market, including new construction took off.

In this medium sized market sales of new homes jumped 14% in 2003 to 291 sales. In 2004 new home sales increased by 8.9% to 317. The boom continued into 2005 with 339 new home sales, up 6.9%. The number of new home sales has fallen every year since, however none more pronounced than during 2008. In fact new home sales are running 32% behind the record year of 2005.

The median sale price for a home in The Capital Area Association of Realtors as reported by member brokers to the MLS in 2002 was $89,900. The median sale price has risen every year, excepting 2006 when the median retreated by only $1000, and stands at $105,000 through the first six and one half months of 2008. This $15,100, 16.7% increase in the preceding 6.5 years may be changing course due to weak demand overall, however more so in new homes.

The price of new construction began to rise with hurricanes Katrina and Rita spiking demand for building materials. Now comes the record high price for oil driving up oil based building materials used in infrastructure, and homes.

You could build a home in Springfield Illinois in 2002 for around $80 a square foot, and purchase the building lot for around $375 a front foot. Extremely affordable for any real estate market, especially with interest rates approaching record lows.

Today the lot cost would be around $600 a front foot, and the square foot price can easily exceed $130 per foot. In other words a 2000 square foot home on an 80 foot lot in 2002 would have cost around $190,000. Today it would be closer to $300,000.

During the rise in the overall market median sale price, the cost of new construction supported the price of existing homes. That is changing. The median sale price in the first quarter of 2008 rose an astonishing 5.8% while sales fell 19%. The second quarter experienced a meager .93% increase in the median sale price while sales fell 12.7%.

The reasons? Falling demand, record supply, and builders with unsold inventory lowering prices. There is now a three tier home pricing structure evolving within the market.

The custom home. Examples would be the Springfield Area Home Builders Association Showcase of Homes 2008 where one 2450 square foot home with an additional 1350 feet finished in the basement is selling for $469,900.

The new construction spec home, with 2512 Centennial Drive as an example. This 2356 foot ranch home with an additional 1371 square feet finished in the basement has been lowered in price to $299,900. Granted the home on Centennial Drive doesn't have all the added amenities of a showcase home, however a $170,000 price differential is substantial.

The existing home is the third tier, and it is under pressure from new homes where the builders have lowered prices to move inventory. Most prospective home buyers will buy new if there isn't a significant difference between the existing home price.

Where new homes once supported higher existing home prices, excepting custom homes, new home prices will force down the price of existing homes. At least until the inventory of unsold homes is greatly reduced. With the current economic environment, that probably won't happen any time soon.

In 2005 a total of 4182 homes were sold by Realtors which included 339 new homes. Turned out to be a record year for both. In 2007, 4024 homes were sold including 287 new homes. The year 2008 sees new home sales down by 20.9% and on pace for 230 sales. Overall home sales are down 14% and on pace for around 3400. A far cry from the 4024 last year.

Along with declining numbers in sales will go prices. At least that's the current trend. Will it be a precipitous decline in prices? Are you kidding? This is Springfield Illinois real estate where we defy the odds! The current trend will have prices down by 1 to 3% by years end.

The impact new construction can have upon a housing market is on display through this little historical snapshot within Springfield Illinois real estate.

Source of data, The Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS, and does not reflect all market activity, for example custom home sales or builder spec homes sold without the assistance of a Realtor, and fsbo's of existing homes. It is estimated that 90% of all home sales involve a broker.

Dog Days Between Holidays For Housing?

2008-07-13T09:26:00.005-05:00

Welcome to Springfield Illinois, a home good enough for Abe Lincoln, but not good enough for Rod Blagojevich. Then again Lincoln wasn't the product of a modern Chicago political machine that has nothing but disdain for Springfield, and downstate.

The governor continues his quest for political retribution by cutting, and transferring state jobs out of Springfield. A friend commented he believes the governor is guilty of committing economic terrorism upon Springfield. Hard to dispute. The bottom line is the governor and his policies not only have the state ranked as the 39th best state to do business, he's single handed depressing the real estate market.

I can hardly believe Illinois ranks as high as 39th with the Gross Receipts Tax proposing, sell the Lottery, quadrupling business/personal fees, bond selling, fund sweeping (rob Peter to pay Paul), health care for everyone (including illegals), with party machine Blagojevich at the helm. He can't find the wheel, but he is at the helm.

Live by the sword, die by the sword. For decades the state has been Springfield's number one employer. The bright side is that if Blagojevich eliminates those jobs through continued economic terrorism, the good people of the community will rebuild creating private sector jobs, relieving the community from dependency upon state government. This will be a painful transition, however the transformation will be worth the effort. Economic freedom.

With the fourth of July behind us, and the slowest second quarter in home sales since 2002, will the local housing market rebound? Doubtful with so many jobs on the line, and in the hands of the governor. Not to mention the malaise generated by the Presidential election.

There may not be a rebound, however neither will there be a crash. The first half home sales remain on pace to surpass those years prior to the record setting years. A Springfield Illinois real estate market that is good by historical standard.

The primary challenge is the negative perception of the market. With a record (for this date) 1980 homes listed for sale with Realtors, people see for sale signs everywhere. This is giving the false perception that homes aren't selling. True, it is taking longer to sell, the median sale price is back to the historical norm of +2.1%, more listings will fail to sell than will sell, however homes are selling.

This translates into tough times for home seller's, but opportunity time for home buyers. Interest rates remain extremely low while inflation rears its' ugly head. How long will these low rates be available in conjunction with record numbers of homes for sale? Only time will tell.

The one thing for certain is that home buyers have the ultimate market conditions to purchase a home. Let the Dog Days begin. The Springfield housing market will be just fine.

Home Sales Springfield IL. 2008

2008-07-02T05:01:00.005-05:00

This is a preliminary report for home sales in one of the nations most stable real estate markets for the month of June, second quarter, and first half of 2008. The numbers will change slightly as member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors have through July 3 to report sales for June. Don't expect any significant changes.

The one trend that stands out is the median sale price, which fell in June by $250 or a mere two tenths of a percent from June 2007. The second quarter increased $500 or less than one half percent to $107,500 over 2007. The first half of 2008 median sale price is up $3000 to $105,000 or by 2.9% over 2007. The reason this stands out is this represents a marked slowdown in the rising median sale price. This probably is the result of fewer sales, and record inventory.

Closed home sales for June stand at 361 at time of report or down 21.5%. Anticipate a few more sales to be reported, with a decline of 90 to 95 home sales or a 19 to 20% drop from June 2007.

Closed home sales for the second quarter are down by 164 or by 13.1%. The slowest second quarter this decade. With sales pending off in June don't expect a rebound in closed sales in July.

Closed home sales for the first half of 2008 are down by 322 to 1755 or by 15.5%. Final numbers will probably finish at 1760 to 1765 closed home sales. Following the expiration of 101 listings the past 48 hours, the number of homes listed for sale stands just under 1900. Clearly a greater than 6 month inventory of homes for sale.

Sales pending fell by 80 or by 16.8% in June; by 173 or 11.7% in the second quarter, and by 364 or 13.6% in the first half of the year. With the tougher lending standards, tightening appraisal values, and a home seller's greatest nemesis the home inspection, approximately 20% of sales pending fail to close.

The slow down in the Midwest's best market in 2007 is indicative of the recent pull back in consumer spending resulting from high fuel prices which is causing the price of just about all consumer products to increase. Just ask the auto industry, or Starbucks.

With a complete lack of leadership from the Democrats in the State, and in the U.S. Congress don't expect any price relief at the pump anytime soon. Yesterday the Dem's Harry Reid continues to do nothing to help increase production of oil by standing with the environmentalists by saying oil and coal make us sick. Oil and coal make the economy healthy Senator Reid. Lower fuel prices would bring down food and other consumer prices, and create jobs.

This is 2008 where production and use of these energy sources can be done in an environmentally safe way. Ask any miner that wants a job, a working single mom, or construction worker what their opinion is. Senator Reid would rather starve the miner, his family, and see you pay more at the pump. For Democrats to say they stand for the working man is mere rhetoric, their actions harm the working man. All for personal political gain. Time for Reid to go, or start acting in the best interests of the people.

The people of this country better wake up to the fact that the Democrats will destroy the economy in favor of promoting climate change (a/k/a global warming) for political gain, because they are owned by environmental extremist's lobbies and philosophy. This is nothing more than promoting a Socialist movement to gain control over your lives. It has nothing to do with the environment.

In my opinion the people of America had better kick the Democrats (and any Republican) under the bus that supports extreme actions due to the fallacy of climate change, over the price of gas/food/energy you pay, crippling the economy. Time for a return to common sense, and practical programs that will lower the price of gas/food/energy.

Enough of the liberal feel good environmental political correctness, and put people above political ambition.

News, Home Sales Springfield IL., and the Fourth of July

2008-06-28T07:24:00.003-05:00

OK, the news this week continued to dump salt in the wounds. Oil surpassed $140 a barrel on Friday, consumer confidence reported on Wednesday sank to record lows, automobile sales continue to fall, home prices were reported down in every major metropolitan market, the governor announced the relocation of the IDOT Department of Traffic Safety out of Springfield to Harrisburg, AFSCME rallied at the capital to protest the lack of a fair contract, and Blagojevich announced 1.5 billion in cuts to the budget if his nemesis Madigan didn't come back to Springfield and pass his cockamamie bond floating, fund sweeping, lottery leasing, capital plan, and budget that merely mortgages the future once again.

Other than that, how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?

As promised last week I will be watching the end of month home sales for June. Expect home sales in the local market to be down double digits in June, in the second quarter, and in the first half of the year.

The inventory of homes for sale remains at record levels for this time of year with 1962 homes available for sale with local Realtors today, not counting for sale by owners, and builders.

Sure doesn't sound like much to be happy about. That is where you would be wrong. Sure we are going through an economic downturn brought on by higher oil prices driving up the cost of just about everything, and we have to deal with a governor who obviously doesn't like Springfield, and a bloated federal government that causes more harm than good.

But this upcoming week we will celebrate the Fourth of July, and the birth of the greatest nation ever known to mankind. Sure our governor is incompetent, but we live in a nation where we have the freedom to say so. Sure the economy has seen better days, but we still have air conditioned homes, refrigerators and pantries stocked, and outdoor grills at the ready to celebrate with family and friends. It may cost us a little more in gas to get wherever we shall travel, however we have the freedom to travel wherever we desire.

Maybe there are record numbers of homes for sale, maybe you're having difficulty selling a home, at least you have a home, live in a country with the freedom to own a home, and a country with the highest level of home ownership in the world. A country where the majority of those considered poor own a car, and a TV set, where grocery stores brim with thousands of products.

You live in the most generous nation in the world as many give freely of their own to help those without, hungry, and suffering from natural disaster. Here and around the world.

Yes we have lots to be happy about, the freedoms that we enjoy, that many take for granted, are being protected this very day by an all volunteer military serving throughout the world. To those serving today, thank you for all you do, for your service, and your sacrifice. Thank you to all the families of those serving who will have an empty seat at the table while a loved one serves away from home this 4th of July.

Yes we have been blessed as no other country in the history of mankind. So this fourth of July, forget the temporary troubles we endure, we are Americans and we will overcome these obstacles and any obstacle that is placed before us, set aside those concerns, and be happy to count the blessings and freedoms you experience every day in this country.

God bless you all, God Bless America, and God Bless those who serve around the world today. Have a Happy Fourth of July!

Selling Your Home In a Bear Market

2008-06-22T06:42:00.005-05:00

The recipe for slow growth is firmly in place. Take evaporated disposable income going toward everyday necessities like food and, gas, mixed with a dash of higher unemployment, dysfunctional government, inane energy policy, high taxes, pulled pork (earmarks), and you will get a heaping helping full of wait and see stew.

This is the wealthiest country on earth, and there's plenty of money to be spent. The average family is pulling back out of necessity, the upper middle income folks are sitting tight, and the wealthy wait to see if their earnings will be stolen through confiscation by Obama to pay for more government bureaucratic entitlement failures. These are the primary sources of uncertainty, and the pull back in consumer spending.

If you must sell a home you can take heart, people still need a place to live. There will be homes selling, just not in the numbers most markets are accustomed to seeing. Who will sell, and who won't?

This is Springfield Illinois where the market was spoiled with over 4000 homes being sold annually for the preceding four years. This is a new year which has home sales on pace for about 3400. This is not a crash, more of a return to more normal levels of sales. The challenge is the number of homes for sale, continuing to set records. There are more homes listed for sale today, 1974, than will have sold during the first six months of 2008.

This is called competition of the highest order; fewer buyers, more sellers. The result? Unlike the robust years of the recent past, low offers, short appraisals, stricter financing requirements, longer time on the market, and a lower sale price to list price ratio are the norm. Not to mention foreclosures and short sales.

So how does one successfully sell their home in these bear market conditions? Know the holy grail of home selling; price, condition, and agent selection. These are the deal makers, or deal breakers. Experience is often overrated, however not when selling a home under these conditions. An agent that has experienced buyer markets is infinitely better suited to advise you on the primary components of getting sold; price, and condition.

My advice is to hire the best agent and company in your market. That would be an agent with a proven sales record, with top quality Internet presentation, and marketing materials. Ask to see samples. Trust but verify agent's, and company's claims.

Establish a pricing plan before you list your home. This market is changing faster than a teenage girl's mood. Knowing where you are going with the price at prescribed times while on the market, will increase your chances of selling threefold. How do I know? Since introducing my pricing plan strategy, three times as many of my listings have sold and closed as the average of the top twenty five agents in the market. There are 690 agents.

Have your home inspected, and make repairs before you list your home. Offer a copy of the inspection report to financially approved home buyers that show interest, then sell 'as is'. This eliminates the opportunity for buyers to leverage more money from you following their inspection. Buyer's want their own inspector? No problem, give the buyers first right of refusal to write an offer while they have the home inspected. Seven days should be sufficient. Then negotiate the sale price of your home. Once.

There is a plethora of information available regarding preparing a home for sale. Let me make it easy for you. Everything you do is to create a sense of cleanliness, and spaciousness. If flooring needs replaced, replace it. Walls need painting, paint them. Use the 'I would' rule; if anything causes you to pause and think, 'should I do this?', I would.

Do you have to give your home away in order to sell? No. You just need to be better priced than your competition.

Do you need to make your home like new? No. Just so your home shows better than your competition.

Do you have to hire the best agent/company in the market? No. Just one better than your competitors hired.

It's like the fellow who was slowly reaching for his shoes while camping with a friend when they spotted a bear heading toward their campsite. The man's friend said; you can't out run a bear. The man replied; I don't have to out run the bear, just you.

Springfield, IL. Housing Market Undergoing Slowdown

2008-06-18T05:06:00.003-05:00

It appears that the local housing market is slowing down from the activity experienced during the preceding four years when the Capital Area Association of Realtors member brokers posted over 4000 home sales each of those years. The current pace of sales in 2008 would produce around 3400 home sales. A fifteen percent decrease, however not a crash.

There are a number of economic factors causing the slowdown, and will impact future sales. Stagnant to falling job growth is a major contributing factor however there is more.

On April 20 I reported here that at that time the biggest threat to the housing market was barely being mentioned; inflation. Today's (6-14-08) SJR reports the sharpest increase for inflation in the past six months. The time is near for my prediction to come to fruition, the Fed can not stand idly by while inflation soars, and the value of the dollar falls. The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates sooner rather than later to stave off inflation, and to prop up the value of the dollar, which would bring the price of oil down, because oil is traded in dollars.

The Federal government in its infinite wisdom doesn't calculate the cost of energy and food when reporting the rate of inflation. How many of you budgeted at the beginning of the year, anticipating that gas prices would be over $4 a gallon, and planned for a 10% increase in the cost of your groceries? If you did, come see me, I need your soothsayer abilities to help predict home sales.

The crux of the matter is the average household is numb from skyrocketing prices in gas and food. The increases in food costs are directly attributable to the higher fuel prices. Now to add to rising prices comes major flooding in America's breadbasket. The loss of crops will drive food prices even higher.

The stock market is said to be a portend-er of future economic activity, and has built into today's prices of stock foreseeable future events. The same is true for mortgage lenders and investors. Mortgage interest rates have begun to creep upward in anticipation of the Fed raising rates, and to remain financially profitable.

Housing sales continue to be slow across the nation, in other words fewer buyers means fewer loans on which to make a profit, resulting in mortgage lenders increasing the spread between what they pay for money and what they charge to loan the money.

Higher mortgage rates have two important impacts upon any housing market; fewer buyers with weaker purchasing power, which leads to lower home prices.

This year will prove to be as challenging to sell a home as any during the past 14 years. Why? On average only one in seven homes listed for sale will sell in a month.

If you must sell your home, for you to have success, you must have the best condition, best price, and best agent.

You should also be prepared to negotiate more, because the average sale price to list price ratio is 95.7%, the lowest in a decade. During the sellers market the ratio approached 98% of asking price.

You need to be prepared to be on the market longer, the average days on market to contract in 2008 is 87 days, and that's for the current listing period only. Counting previous time on the market the cumulative days to contract exceeds four months, and that's only for those that have sold and closed.

As mentioned earlier, about 3400 homes will sell this year. Your odds of selling during a month are one in seven. However you can get sold if you hire the right agent, and the right company that has the experience and market proven systems that are getting homes sold. This is no time for amateur hour.

If you must sell your home don't dally; higher interest rates, which makes home selling more challenging, is around the corner if not at your doorstep.

If you must sell your home in 2008, you can have success. However there are only two ways you can succeed, do it right, or take your chances and hope to get lucky. Which will you choose?

May Home Sales, Politics, and Policy

2008-06-10T15:02:00.004-05:00

Here are the (preliminary) final numbers for May home sales as reported by the broker members of the CAAR MLS. These numbers may change slightly as agents may be tardy on reporting within the required time frame mandated by the MLS.

Good news. Home sales rebounded from a dismal performance in April. The 401 closed home sales in May were off by only 3 from May 2007. Additional good news is the median sale price increased by 2.6% over May of '07.

The not so good news is that pending listings were down by 98, or by 19.7% which means June closings look to be down. The days on market for sold listings from last May were up to 82 days. The number of home listings continue at record pace with 1965available for sale today, not counting homes for sale by owner or by builder.

Through the first five months of 2008 closed home sales are down by 223 or by 13.7%, while sales pending are off by the same 13.7% however by 303 pending listings. Average days on the market are up to 89 days.

Opposite what one would believe with sales down, record numbers of homes for sale, and days on the market taking longer for those selling, the median sale price was up 4.79% the first five months of '08 over '07.

Friday June 6 was not a good day on the economic front. Unemployment rose to 5.5%, the stock market fell 394 points, and the price of oil surged to a record $140 a barrel. The good news is that many experts predict that oil prices are in a bubble that will burst. This is one time I hope the experts are right.

Hopefully the American people will get so infuriated with their congressmen and senators for being the primary cause for oil prices, that they all start a flood of calls to D.C. demanding our government allow drilling of our own oil reserves now, and provide regulatory relief to oil companies that are stuck in the bureaucratic mud of D.C. attempting to build refineries that would increase gasoline production.

Thank God the senate defeated the global warming legislation that would deal a death blow to the economy. The only problem is both presidential candidates support this legislation that would render the largest tax increase on business in history. If you believe prices are high now, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Just as the American people rallied together in protest of the Amnesty legislation for illegal immigrants, we can only hope the people will rally to stop the insane energy policies, and moronic global warming legislative initiatives. Otherwise you can kiss any hope of a good economy, and recovery in the national housing market good bye.

All indications are that Democrats will increase their numbers in the congress and senate, and that they have a good chance to win the presidency. I don't believe the best interests of the country will be served by one party controlling all three branches of government.

Recent history shows that when the Republicans controlled all three branches, spending increased one trillion dollars mushrooming the national debt. This has caused the Republicans a great deal of harm and loss of trust to govern among the public, and rightfully so.

All one has to do is look to Illinois where Democrats control all branches of government to see what a dysfunctional, spend happy, power drunk one party rule can cause.

The threats to the economy in the state are significant with the legislature passing a budget billions of dollars in the red with their vote buying, entitlement growing, spending proposals. I fear the state of Illinois is but a small sample of what would happen when the entitlement promising Obama gets elected, creating grave damage by government to the private sector.

The best hope for the American people would be the failure of Democrats to either win the White House, or gain 60 votes in the senate. The result would be gridlock. When government can't pass legislation, only then will we be safe.

I am asked regularly how long will the housing market be in a slowdown? My answer; as long as we keep electing people that believe in bigger government, higher taxes, more regulation, more entitlements, and pander to environmentalists over the good of the country, which means there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

Tenuous Times in Illinois Housing Markets and Why

2008-05-11T09:38:00.004-05:00

There's no question the pace of home sales has slowed from 2007. The Capital Area Association of Realtors member brokers report closed home sales year to date are down 16.6% to 1079 from 1295 last year through May 9. This does not mean the market is crashing. This is the first measurable slowdown in over a decade, however this is not a natural cyclical slowdown, it is the result of governmental policy.

Home listings going under contract are down by 7.6% from a year ago this date to 508. April activity was brisk which means closed home sales in May will show a rebound, although will come in slightly below May of 2007. Sales pending the past week were below 100 for the fourth consecutive week. On only 4 occasions this year did weekly sale pending listings eclipse 100. An unusual occurrence in the Springfield housing market during Spring.

The biggest challenge is the surging inventory of homes for sale which stands at 1850 home listings available for sale today. Another record for this date. It has taken four months and nine days to close 1079, which means there is a 7.37 month inventory of homes for sale.

In my opinion the biggest factors for the slowdown in sales are 1. anemic job growth, 2. the high cost of gas/food/energy, 3. the constant press reports emphasizing the negative 4. the utter lack of confidence in the inept Blagojevich administration, who now proposes moving more state jobs out of Springfield.

Regrettably there are no quick fixes for any of these problems. Jobs and Blagojevich go hand in hand. The state is Springfield's largest employer, and in my opinion Blagojevich is determined to harm our local economy due to our elected officials voting for recall, in order to reward legislator's districts that voted against recall.

The press will not change because if it bleeds it reads. The energy crisis has been brought on over decades due to the governments blocking of nuclear power plant construction, refinery construction, and the blocking of drilling in government owned lands that would increase our supply of oil. Don't expect any fast action by the Federal government. Our elected officials are owned by environmental lobbies who's good intentions are causing more harm than good for the people it was intended to help.

The reality of the situation, Blagojevich in office three more years, special interest groups owning the Federal government, and the negative press will cause our housing market to remain in a slow cycle for the next couple of years. Local home sellers are experiencing the most challenging market in which to get sold, since the high interest rate years of the 1980's.

In spite of all these negative forces working against Illinois home sellers, many will have success. However only if they approach the sale of their home in an educated, business like manner. Price, condition, and agent/broker selection will all become more critical to selling during the next several years.

Home Sales April 2008, Springfiled IL., Blagojevich Impact

2008-05-04T05:38:00.004-05:00

Welcome to real time real estate. Preliminary numbers are in for the local housing market for April of 2008. As predicted here, based upon March sold pending contracts, member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS report closed home sales were down from April 2007.

With one business day remaining for brokers to report, the 321 closed home sales are down by 64 or by 16.6% from 385 in April of 2007. Expect those numbers to change slightly when the final numbers are reported. For the first time in months the median sale price slipped by $1000, or by 1.04% to $95,000.

The time it took for a home to get sold in April was up to 89 days from 78 last April. The cumulative days on the market are substantially higher when including time on the market during a previous listing period when there was no sale, to an estimated 148 days on the market.

Through the first four months of 2008 closed home sales are down 224 or by 18.4% to 989, days on the market are up to 92 from 79, and the median sale price is up to $97,000, from $94,900 or by 2.2% compared to January through April 2007.

Last week we shared with you that consumer spending, and job growth would be the reasons for any slow down, or pick up in home sales this year. There was a sliver of good news this week with the unemployment rate falling to 5%, consumer spending up fractionally in March, and first quarter GDP growth of .6%. This means we were close, but no recession.

The not so good news was consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since 2003. Low consumer confidence doesn't bode well for consumer spending. I believe the tax rebates will help, however most will go into gas tanks, to grocery stores, and on credit cards. However extra money and good weather usually pick up people's spirits.

Last week we reported Springfield had a net increase of 163 jobs in 2007, not nearly enough to put a dent in the record inventory of homes for sale. Yesterday the governor announced plans to relocate 148 employees from IDOT's traffic safety division to Southern Illinois. This would be a devastating blow to the local economy, and to the families that will be uprooted.

This could add more homes for sale within the local market, when there are 1801 homes listed for sale today, a record for this date. Only one in four listings have sold this year, there is noticeable downward pressure on home prices, it is taking longer to sell, and job growth is already anemic. Yet we remain one of the best housing markets in the Midwest.

If the governor is successful in relocating these 148 jobs and families, these families will have to sell their homes during very tough market conditions, exacerbating their personal dilemma.

With over 600,000 square feet of vacant office space in Springfield, you'd think the governor and IDOT could leave their expensive lease and move to more affordable space in Springfield. This is another example of changing the way we do business in Springfield as promised by this governor during his campaigns.

Regrettably for the families affected by this proposal, for the community of Springfield, and for the people of the state of Illinois, in my opinion all are having to suffer the consequences of the most inept, and possibly the most corrupt leadership in the history of the state, and that's saying something in Illinois.

How are you all enjoying the; "change the way we're going to do business in Springfield", promised by Blagojevich? I guess voting for change, for the sake of change, has its' perils.

Although recall legislation failed this week, there will be a recall in 2010. Hopefully the damage to the state caused by this administration can be repaired in a reasonable amount of time. Hang in there folks, brighter days lay ahead.

Danger on the Horizon for Housing Markets

2008-04-20T07:55:00.005-05:00

Have you ever heard the saying; out like a lamb, in like a lion? The Springfield Illinois housing market, one of the most affordable and stable in the nation, reported to be the best in the Midwest in 2007, is rebounding following a dismal first quarter. However there is trouble on the horizon, and not just for the Springfield housing market, all housing markets.

Following lamb like activity with home sales down 29% in March, and down 19.4% for the first quarter, April is coming on like a lion. The first three business weeks have posted the first back to back weeks of over one hundred home listings being reported sold pending by The Capital Area Association of Realtors MLS.

This historically resilient housing market which has bucked national trends, just may be on the road to recovery. However there are threats to the economy that may derail this market and others. Government actions.

A meeting of top executives representing the top 20% financial institutions, are reported by the AP to declare the most immediate threat to the economy is the credit crisis and the weak housing market. Fair enough. The executives then declared the next biggest threats to the economy are the possibility of tax increases, and legislation that would interfere with free trade.

Both Democrat presidential candidates have said they would allow the Bush tax cuts to expire which would raise taxes on all Americans by 1.2 trillion dollars. Included in the Bush tax cuts was the capital gains tax reduction to 15%. This tax cut is credited for the boom in commercial real estate development, and business investment. The raising of the capital gains tax would deal a devastating blow to the economy.

Both candidates pandering to the left wing base of the party to secure nomination are proposing 1 trillion dollars in new spending for expanded government programs such as universal health care, college for all, and other entitlement programs. Both say they will tax the rich to pay for the programs. Pure socialism through wealth redistribution, and punishment for hard work and success.

Both candidates now argue over who can renege on free trade agreements faster than they can retreat from Iraq. The truth is exports accounted for 40% of all economic activity in 2007. These top executives fear trade restrictions will destroy the markets for U.S. goods which will cause massive unemployment and industry failures.

The danger to all housing markets is weak demand, causing fewer sales, lower prices, and more foreclosures due to both the loss of jobs, and reduction of income through higher taxation.

Housing markets are already suffering from changes in lending standards which will cause short term pain by decreasing the number of qualified buyers, however will lead to long term stability.

Housing markets suffer from buyers that are losing disposable income to record high fuel prices, which in turn are driving up the price of food. The average family won't be shopping for a new home with their incomes under attack by these price increases. Add in loss of more revenue through tax increases, loss of jobs if markets for our goods are cut off, and the housing slump of today will seem like a walk in the park.

It also was reported this week that Americans have borrowed 1.2 trillion dollars against their home equity. Should the Democrats win the presidency and harm the economy with their proposed economic actions, millions of home owners will see the value of their homes fall well below the amount borrowed.

This too will negatively impact the housing market. Millions of families won't be able to sell because they will owe too much. No taking job transfers, or a move up or down. They'll be stuck. Unless they walk away, when they no longer desire to pay for something that's not worth it anymore, as we witnessed thousands doing in 2007.

In spite of the calamitous tax and trade policies being proposed, the greatest threat is barely being mentioned; inflation. The American people are only fooling themselves if they don't believe the energy crisis isn't fueling inflation. It's apparent every time you shop at the grocery store.

The Federal Reserve is playing a game of chicken with inflation by keeping interest rates low, hoping to stimulate the economy. This can not, and will not last.

The nail in the housing market coffin will be higher interest rates following the attack upon American families disposable income by gas/energy/food prices, tax increases, and job loss due to governmental interference in free trade.

The solutions are available to avoid this catastrophe. Don't elect anyone against free trade, or who says they will raise taxes. Get serious about the energy crisis. Start by opening government land (and sea) for drilling oil, relax regulations on refinery construction, nuclear power plant construction, and eliminate ethanol subsidies along with farm subsidies.

We have created a food crisis at home and abroad due to foolish governmental actions, we must undo those with responsible governmental actions.

The nation is at a crossroads with the upcoming election. The economy, your job, your standard of living, your liberty, your way of life will be determined by the outcome. Choose wisely.

Springfield Illinois Housing Market Slows

2008-04-06T05:50:00.002-05:00

Last week I shared with you the danger involved in basing your decisions upon the housing market reports released during the week, because it was dated information, about a month after the fact. Deciding the actions you should take if you are about to list a home based upon that report would be like trying to decide what to wear today by looking at a month old newspaper to see the weather forecast.

The Springfield housing market is slowing. March home sales fell by 104 sales or by 29.2% to 252 from last year. Home listings going under contract fell by 99 or 20.3%. Sales pending today stand at 98 fewer than last year on this date or down by 18.4%, which means April will probably be down from last year.

The first quarter of 2008 experienced closed home sales falling by 161 or 19.4% from 2007, for the fewest home sales in a first quarter since 2001. The 991 home listings going under contract were down by 209 or 17.4%. Both the March slowdown, and quarterly slowdown is unfamiliar territory for this normally stable housing market.

You will hear when the official report comes out at the end of the month that the silver lining is the median sale price and the average sale price was up. That my friends is of little consolation to those that have not sold. One hundred percent of nothing is nothing.

You will also hear that the number of new listings entering the market is also down. The 1361 home listings taken in the first quarter were down by 218 or 13.8% from 2007. This is good news, however due to the falling number of sales, the 1755 home listings available for sale today are the most ever for this date, up by 138 or 8.5% from a year ago.

Overall there is currently a 7.6 month inventory of homes listed for sale. Homes listed between $50,000 and $75,000 have the least with a 3 month inventory, while the $300,000 to $400,000 have the most with an over 16 month inventory.

It was reported this week by the SJR that building permits fell in 2007 in Springfield to their lowest level since 1984. Many of the homes in the $300,000 to $400,000 range are new construction. The Springfield Area Home Builders Association Showcase of Homes this summer will be held at Savannah Pointe with developer John Klemm reporting prices starting at $300,000, creating even more competition for builders with homes already on the market at those prices.

The one price range that really stands out to me is the $75,000 to $100,000 range, the perennial biggest sales range by far. For the first time since I began tracking sales for Let's Talk Real Estate the inventory of homes for sale between $75,000 and $100,000 exceeds six months.

Why is that important? This is the most popular price range for first time home buyers, the most important buyer in any housing market. Without first time home buyers purchasing first time home sellers listings, the first time home seller can't purchase at the next level, and so on. That's why you see the largest inventory in history. Not enough move up buyers, or job growth bringing in new buyers to the market.

There you have it, our market is officially in a slowdown. Let's count our blessings, we've had four great years where the rest of the state and nation tanked. Even with our slowing market we are not in the tank. But people that must sell their homes better be aware of the market conditions if they want to sell.

During the first quarter the CAAR member brokers added 1361 new listings to the record 1604 available to begin the year. The 690 agents in the MLS sold and closed 667 home listings. In other words one in five home listings sold.

I anticipate the low interest rates at near 30 year lows will spark demand, and activity will pick up as it does normally in the second quarter. Even at that only one in three home listings will sell in the second quarter. Regardless the 1755 homes listed for sale today exceeds the 1247 sold in the second quarter of 2007. Expect an additional 1800 to 2000 home listings to come to market between now and the end of June to compete with current sellers.

If you must sell your home, you'd better not make any mistakes in the three areas that determines whether a home sells or doesn't sell; price, condition, and agent selection.

If you have not selected an agent to market your home during this most competitive market in a decade, it would be an honor to interview for the job. My selling systems are proven the most effective of all agents or teams in the MLS this decade. We are here to help, and serve you. We are honored and humbled when selected from among the hundreds of hard working Realtors serving this market. Call 652-7653 to schedule a private interview.

March Home Sales Lackluster in Springfield Illinois

2008-03-30T10:12:00.002-05:00

Many times I have reported that prime time to sell a home in Springfield IL. is between Valentines Day and June 30. That has been as predictable as forecasting what the Chicago Cubs will do in any given year. Not so this March. Perhaps this means the Cubs have a chance?

The member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors reporting to the local MLS saw January sales off over 27%, followed by a 2.1% increase in February, while March is shaping up to see the fewest number of homes sold since 2002. The meager 200 closed home sales through March 28th are down 24.8% from last March.

The number of home listings sold pending are down for the month as well, and are standing 11.4% below last year on this date. This indicates April home sales may very well be off from last year. Combine that with 1745 homes listed for sale, a record high for this date, and you instantly realize the difficulty home sellers face in 2008. Fewer buyers, more competition.

The first quarter will finish behind Q1 2007 for the sixth consecutive quarterly decline in the number of homes sold in the Springfield market area. The bright spot in the market is that the median sale price is up 4.9% on those homes selling. I contend that this doesn't mean prices are rising, especially when considering the median sale price stands below $100,000 today. Ask any of the dozens of builders, and scores of home owners with homes listed above $300,000 if prices are rising. Many are about to celebrate their first or second anniversary of being for sale.

In spite of all the above, Springfield remains the best housing market in the Midwest. This is due primarily to the stable employment base with state government, and medical as primary employers. Affordability remains among the best in the state and country. Interest rates continues to fuel demand.

The Springfield market has proven to be resilient. Perhaps the slow start to the year portends good times ahead.

Clarification of Chicago Tribune Housing Report

2008-03-22T07:57:00.003-05:00

On Monday the tenth of March the Chicago Tribune published a front page story in their business section reporting Springfield as the best housing market in the Midwest. I had the honor to be interviewed for that story along with fellow RE/MAX agent Betty Shuster.

There is some clarification required about the story. Wow, was I surprised to read in the story the Tribune reporting Springfield home prices were up 14.4% in 2007 from 2006, thus laying the claim to the fourth best appreciating city in the U.S. and the best housing market in the Midwest. Those numbers were never discussed during my interview.

Here's the clarification. The Tribune received those numbers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The methodology used by NAR is different from that used by the Capital Area Association of Realtors (CAAR). The criteria for NAR includes multiple associations of Realtors. Their definition of Springfield includes all of Menard, Sangamon, and Macoupin counties. NAR only counts stand alone single family homes.

CAAR includes condos, single family attached homes and the service area covers all of Menard, and Sangamon counties, and parts of Morgan, Christian, and Macoupin counties. So clarification point number one is the type of property, and the geographical areas are different between CAAR and NAR for reporting purposes.

Clarification point number two is extremely significant, the numbers from NAR were fourth quarter comparisons, not the entire years of 2006, and 2007.

By using different property types, and geographical areas, combined with the fact that the comparison was quarterly not annual, which went unreported, added up to a lot of confusion. That's why you can always count on the most current and accurate reporting on the housing market right here. Everyone clear on the housing reports now?

No? Regardless it was great to see a positive story about our housing market in the Tribune. Thanks also to Tim Landis and the SJR for a follow up story locally. The main point is that NAR and CAAR do report comparing apples to apples, it is when you compare NAR to CAAR you are comparing apples to oranges.

Truth is our median sale price did increase from $99,000 in 2006 to $104,500 in 2007, an increase of 5.5%, something 90% of the housing markets in the country wish they could report. You can see why some folks would be confused when reading Springfield prices were up 14.4%. Price is one of the three most important ingredients to successfully selling a home. Please don't over price your home based upon the NAR report, falsely believing Springfield prices are shooting up like a rocket. Those homes that are selling are up, however not as much as the story reports.

Taking a look at 2008 may get you dizzy, like riding a roller coaster. January down, February up, March down. I believe the combination of falling interest rates mixed with a little sunshine, and home sales will be up again. As long as we aren't on one of those roller coasters that does a loop de loop, home sales will be just fine.

March has been anything but normal. Closed sales are down 21%, sales pending are down 16%, and the median sale price through the first three weeks of March is at $87,700 compared to $107,900 in March of 2007. These numbers will improve as local Realtors work through the end of month closings.

Fortunately my market tested, and proven selling systems are ahead of last years pace having helped 17 home sellers either close or go under contract in 2008. This unique selling system is actually proving more effective in the buyer's market than the level and seller markets of the past. Don't be surprised by that, we are constantly improving our systems to match market conditions. Probably the reason why The Pfister Success Team selling systems have led to 40% more closed home listings than any other agent or team in our market this decade. Proof is in the pudding folks.

If you are preparing to sell your home in 2008 call 652-7653 and reserve a seat at the Free home seller seminar April 3, at The Crowne Plaza Hotel beginning at 6pm. Or simply call 652-sold for a private interview, my listing inventory is selling, and now has room for more home sellers that are serious about getting sold. It would be an honor to serve your family.

May you have a Blessed and safe Easter weekend, from Fritz and Kristie Pfister, Denny Pryor, Keith Haynes, and Amy Mason of the Pfister Success Team at RE/MAX Professionals.

Current Events Negative Impact Upon Housing Market

2008-03-16T06:21:00.003-05:00

Wow, what a week in the news; Eliot Spitzer, Geraldine Ferraro, Tony Rezko, Jeremiah Wright, and gas prices jumping to record highs.

What impact do these people and events have upon the housing market? Plenty. Experts were surprised this week to learn that the predicted increase in retail sales in February never materialized as retail sales fell .6% percent. What drives the economy? Consumer spending. It appears the higher cost of energy and food is causing the American consumer to pull back on non-essential spending. Something we predicted here on January 5th, that this could happen. Well it has happened.

Consumer confidence has been shaken with this sharp rise in gas prices. In my opinion the sleazy political stories about Spitzer and the Democrat Party primary campaign are not exactly confidence boosters. Low consumer confidence combined with eroding disposable incomes will impact home sales. If consumers are pulling back on small purchases, what do you think they are doing about large purchases?

This year is going to impact the economy and your pocketbooks in a hugely negative way unless Americans wake up and take positive actions on two fronts; energy and taxes. In my opinion governments, local, state or federal don't have a money problem they have a spending problem. We have high costs for energy due to the failure of our government to implement meaningful energy policies, bowing to the desires of the environmental and tourist lobbies.

Although revenues to the state have increased at twice the rate of inflation the past five years, senate Democrats are proposing a 2% increase in the income tax, and an increase in corporate taxes that will be passed along to you through higher prices. On the federal level both Democrat candidates will allow the Bush tax cuts to expire raising taxes on families of four, earning $50,000 a year, by over $2000. Simultaneously both candidates are proposing about one trillion dollars in new programs. When will people say enough is enough about bloated government, higher taxes, and overspending?

When will the American people say enough is enough as they dig into their pockets paying $3.50 a gallon for gas? When people learn the truth about why gas prices are so high. Share the following five reasons why gas, and energy prices are so high with everyone you know. Please ask them to call their congressmen, senators, and state officials.

Reason number one why gas prices are high; taxes. The people of Illinois should be in complete revolt against their dishonest, dysfunctional government that takes 19 cents a gallon every time you fill up. That money is intended to maintain, and build transportation infrastructure. Where does the money go? Into nanny state, feel good programs like kids care where 54,000 children have been enrolled, costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars, and half the kids enrolled are from illegal immigrant families. When will the state realize that by putting the gas tax into infrastructure improvements, where it was supposed to go in the first place, that those improvements would attract new businesses to the state, creating more jobs, so people could work, and accept personal responsibility to pay for their own kids care? The Feds add their tax, then Illinois charges sales tax on top of the price of gas and the two motor fuel taxes. Reason number one your gas prices are high; taxes, federal, state, local, and sales taxes.

Reason number two your gas prices are high is due to environmental and tourism lobbyists buying votes of those who write energy laws. We have billions of barrels of oil in Alaska, the continental states, and offshore. Will you feel better the next time you fill your tank because some toad did not lose its habitat, while you have to scrimp at the store to feed your kids? The next time you vacation in Florida or California you can be ecstatic not to see oil derricks miles offshore affecting your view of the horizon. Today you'll only have to pay $50 per person each plane trip in fuel surcharges. We need to capture our own resources lying beneath our feet instead of importing oil from dictators and terrorists.

Reason number three why gas prices are high is the environmentalists have made building refineries all but impossible, and even fight the expansion of existing refineries. BP is attempting to increase the size of the Wood River refinery by 50%. Environmentalists always show up in larger numbers at hearings and meetings, than do supporters. This is an eight billion dollar proposal that will double production capacity, and create hundreds of good paying jobs. Become involved and attend the hearings and meetings in support of refinery expansion. The application at Wood River is now over a year old. Due to the lack of refining capacity, we now import gasoline, sheer economic madness!

Reason number four why you are paying high energy bills is because environmentalists have blocked the building of nuclear power plants because they say the plants are not safe. The U.S. Navy has powered nuclear submarines since the 1950's without an accident, and even the French produce 80% of their electrical power from nuclear plants. Time to start getting serious about nuclear energy, let your elected officials know.

Reason number five why energy costs are high is environmentalists blocking the use of clean coal technologies. The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal deposits. Hundreds of local miners are unemployed. Clean coal technology could add tremendous numbers of jobs for the miners, to power plants employees, and provide a substantial boost to our electrical production capabilities. Environmentalists have blocked these efforts. Time to get serious about clean coal technologies, call your representatives and tell them you believe a miner and his family are more important than toads.

Ladies and gentlemen the well intended environmentalists are the real reason why your gas prices are so high, not the greedy oil companies our main stream media and liberal politicians want to make you believe. Keep electing liberals and you have no grounds to complain about the cost of gas, because you voted for toads and owls over workers and their families, and it is costing you at the pump. The technology exists to take advantage of our oil, natural gas, and coal reserves in an environmentally safe way.

What does this have to do with real estate? Everything. This election year will determine if we are to become serious about lower taxes, responsible spending, and realistic energy policy. Allow the politicians to raise your taxes, and to remain dependant upon foreign oil, and the value of your home will plummet, because the majority of folks won't be able to afford to buy a home. It's simple; demand will fall when families already impacted by more stringent mortgage lending policies pay more at the pump and the store. The fewer the buyers, the fewer homes that sell, and at lower prices. If there was ever a perfect example of the laws of supply and demand it is the skyrocketing price of food as ethanol producers consume corn meant for the food supply.

Here's the truth if you elect politicians that want to raise taxes who are in bed with the environmentalists. The average family of four will pay $2000 more in federal income taxes, $1000 more in state income taxes, will pay more for goods and services when Illinois corporations pass along corporate tax increases, will pay $4 to $5 a gallon for gas, will pay hundreds more at the grocery store, and will pay hundreds more to heat and cool their homes.

Ladies and gentlemen elect either Democrat candidate president, and let the state legislators raise the income and corporate taxes, and the average Illinois family won't be buying any houses. They'll be lucky to keep the home they have as a result of the unintended consequences of feel good liberal policies and politicians.

The 'Fritz' Guide to Common Sense Real Estate Decisions 2

2008-03-09T07:07:00.003-05:00

The housing market has changed with the exception of the mistakes home sellers make every year. Here are a few tips if you must sell your home. This advice comes from over twenty-one years service as a full time Realtor. The tips/advice are actually more than that, they are universal truths. Violate these truths and see what happens during the sale of your home.

There are only three components to a successful sale of a home; price, condition, and marketing.

1. Price. Nobody knows what any home will sell for until a buyer lays the money on the table. With a record number of homes for sale that you will be competing against, the price of those homes is more important than what similar homes have sold for. Those buyers are out of the market. Nobody is right about price all the time, that's why you need a pricing plan before you enter the market.

Universal truth, the largest number of buyers you will ever have to appeal to will be the first day on the market. You will get more showings the first two to three weeks than the next ten combined. Price your home fairly according to the competition, if you have not received an offer after two to three weeks adjust the price. This may seem like a short period of time, however it is the time frame of the market. Ignoring these time frames leads to additional months on the market.

Following your first price adjustment, if you have not received an offer between the sixth and eighth week, adjust your price again. All the buyers that were available on day one through the eighth week have eliminated your home from their priority list. After the eighth week on the market you will be waiting for new buyers to enter the market. This leads to an extended time before selling.

2. Condition. You have one opportunity at a first impression. Remember that buyer will be comparing your home to all others, you are not the only dog in the hunt.

Homes in the best condition, homes preinspected by a licensed inspector, homes offering a warranty sell faster and for more money.

You can watch all the TV programs you want about preparing homes to sell. Let me make it easy for you. Clean sells. Spacious appearance sells. Use the 'I would' rule, if something causes you to pause and think; should I do this? I would.

3. Marketing. The more buyers there are for a product, the more valuable that product becomes. The Realtors in your community are the best at marketing homes to attract the greatest number of buyers. All others, far less.

Just a few tips; open house, newspaper advertising, and homes magazines account for about 3% of all sales. Don't be fooled by the agents that promise you these services, they are using them as listing tools to get you to sign the listing. You will be disappointed.

The Internet is the new classified. Hire a broker without a top notch presentation of your home online, and you will be disappointed.

Hire the best agent/broker you can find and you will be half sold. Don't be fooled during agent selection, it is the most important decision you will make. Hiring the agent that tells you the highest price or lowest fee will almost certainly doom you to failure. Things are not as they appear. Overprice, no sale. Lowest fee, fewest services.

Best wishes for a successful sale in 2008.