Birding Forecast - National

2008-09-13T10:39:00.001-04:00

Looking for the current Birding Forecast? Go to the Mid-Atlantic Forecast by David LaPuma.

stalled irruptives, poor riparian

2008-01-18T08:26:00.000-05:00

The promising push of montane invasion species in the West evident during the fall seems to have either stabilized or fizzled. Still some areas with above-average numbers of Cassin's Finches and Red Crossbills, plus Red-breasted Nuthatches, but greater numbers and species diversity (e.g., corvids) seems to have fizzled.

There has also been a stall in the southern and eastern movement of many irruptives (Bohemian Waxwings, Pine Grosbeaks, crossbills, redpolls) in the East since right around Christmas Day. We'll need to wait to see if there is another push in February, as often happens.

But winter owls seems decidedly meager this year.

Lastly, perhaps as a result of prolonged drought conditions in parts of the West, riparian habitats in California and the Southwest seem to have substantially fewer wintering birds in many of them. People have commented on the decidedly low numbers of such usually common species as "Audubon's" Yellow-rumped Warblers.

Paul Lehman

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast late Nov. rarities

2007-11-29T07:03:00.000-05:00

In 2007, we seem to have had a good run of rarities between Cape May County and central New England beginning the weekend of November 17-18. In the Cape May region alone there's been the Lesser Nighthawk, Bullock's Oriole, up to 98 Cave Swallows, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, White-winged Dove, plus the Barnacle Goose, a late Least Flycatcher and Rose-breasted Grosbeak. Add to that, an Ash-throated Flycatcher and Cave Swallow at Brigantine NWR, more Cave Swallows along the state's northern coast, and Sandy Hook's assemblage of Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, and, perhaps rarest of all for late November, a Great Crested Flycatcher. On Long Island there's been 1-2 Ash-throats, perhaps 4 W. Kingbirds, Pink-footed and Barnacle Goose, several Cave Swallows, with additional Ash-throats in Queens and Staten Island. More Cave Swallows in Connecticut (and a continuing Common Ground-Dove), Rhode Island's first Bell's Vireo plus a few Cave Swallows, and Massachusetts has had Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Fly, W. Kingbird, W. Grebe, several Cave Swallows, etc.

So, the peak period of the western passerines this year--particularly involving the largest numbers of Cave Swallows and Ash-throats--has occurred late in the month, about two weeks or so later than the usual peak-period for these species around mid-month. Chance?? A mild month?? Well, there were two good weather events in the latter half of the month that may have facilitated the run of birds: two warm low-pressure systems that tracked east and northeast through the area each followed by sharp cold fronts, one system just before the weekend of Nov 17-18 and the next one which brought us our mild Thanksgiving Day (and day before). And voila, following those two systems, we've had the best rarity influxes of the fall!

Eastern Irruptives Progress

2007-11-10T08:06:00.000-05:00

Through early November, here's a brief summary of the progress of various irruptive species in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states:

Although Northern Saw-whet Owls are in fairly good numbers, no signs yet of the northern owls, and Northern Goshawks and Rough-legged Hawks are being seen in UNremarkable numbers. It is a good year so far for Northern Shrikes throughout much of New England, with a few birds now south to northern New Jersey. Everyone knows about all the Red-breasted Nuthatches, and it has been excellent for widespread Purple Finch numbers, and good for Pine Siskins. The heavyweights include large numbers of Bohemian Waxwings already locally in upstate New York and northern New England, with a few south to n. Massachusetts; Pine Grosbeaks are well represented also in northern New York and northern New England, with a few south to n. Massachusetts; Evening Grosbeaks are scattered everywhere south through New England, with some morning fly-overs as far south as southern New Jersey; and Common Redpolls are scattered in small groups south to Long Island, with several singles south also to southern New Jersey. Crossbills, however, seem to have gone largely elsewhere, although a few Reds have been seen, including several in southern New Jersey (but where they may have originated from a possible stealth population in the state's Pine Barrens). There had been earlier talk of a possible flight of chickadees, and a large flight of Blue Jays, this fall, but so far there doesn't appear to be obvious signs of those, at least not here in the coastal mid-Atlantic. (Yes, there are small flocks of migrant Blue Jays flying by, but the numbers are not exceptional.)

--Paul Lehman

Hurricane Noel remnants tracking up off East Coast

2007-11-03T13:07:00.000-04:00

As the remnants of Hurricane "Noel" have become "extra-tropical" and currently (Saturday) track north-northeast well off the Atlantic Seaboard, there rises the question of what interesting avian events it might produce. Given it is so far offshore off the mid-Atlantic states, however, with mostly wrap-around north winds paralleling the coast, I'd guess that it will produce little south of southern New England. Strong northeast winds late Saturday may well drive a number of seabirds toward shore in Cape Cod Bay and points north. And with the storm forecast to make landfall in Nova Scotia (and presumably later move across PEI/w. Newfoundland) those areas might well receive some interesting migrant passerines from the south--at least those areas immediately to the east of the track of the storm, which will get southerly winds as the storm approaches. A late-season hurricane which tracked offshore from the eastern U.S. but then struck the Atlantic Provinces and then headed east all the way to the Azores and western Europe a couple years ago deposited all sorts of interesting species in those latter regions, including good numbers of Laughing and Franklin's Gulls, Yellow-billed Cuckoos, Chimney Swifts, and Barn Swallows. We'll see if Noel was too far east or not to suck up such landbirds and transport them northwards.

--Paul Lehman

Friday/Saturday storm, Cave Swallows, reverse migrants

2007-10-28T16:52:00.000-04:00

The warm sector of the Eastern storm on Friday and Saturday had a long fetch to the due south, all the way to Florida and beyond--tapping in to mild air and moisture all the way to include remnants of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Before the cold front swung through late Saturday, some of us discussed what might turn up along the East Coast in its wake, and we included such Florida-originating species such as Gray Kingbird, or species from even farther south such as austral migrant Fork-tailed Flycatcher. Also, seemed like a good flow to bring back reverse migrants from Florida and the Southeast. Once the winds switched to northwest on Sunday and pushed birds back to the coast and down to peninsula tips such as Cape May, we might see what turned up.

Classic November storms with large warm-sector, conveyor-belt fetches to the southwest, all the way to places such as Texas, are what likely help transport large numbers of Cave Swallows, small numbers of Ash-throated Flycatchers, and other rarities and late, reverse migrants north and northeast to the Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic. This latest storm instead had a more due-south fetch right along the Eastern Seaboard. But a Cave Swallow turned up at Cape May on 28 October nonetheless, although it may have been a bird that came up several days earlier, as there have been a couple Caves already a few days ago in Ontario. An adult male Summer Tanager in Cape May on the 28th could well have been a reverse migrant that came back north along the Atlantic Coast from somewhere in the direction of Florida in the warm sector, ahead of the cold front.

--Paul Lehman

Autumn 2007, so far....

2007-10-19T11:06:00.000-04:00

So how "good" has the autumn of 2007 been, coast to coast, for the number of regular migrants and rarities?? I guess I'd say "so so".....so far. While there were some good neotropical migrant passerine flights at various sites in the eastern half of the continent during September and the beginning of October, those flights seemed relatively few. Now that October is half over, we are getting flights of the shorter-distance migrants--such as sparrows, kinglets, Yellow-rumpeds, etc.--and these flights have tended to be more reliable and impressive the past decade or so in many regions.

As for rarities this fall, other than the exceptional season in the Bering Sea region, it seems to be also a "so so" year to date. Yes, there have been some exceptional rarities, such as the Green-breasted Mango in Wisconsin, the Cassin's Kingbird on Long Island, Sulphur-bellied Flycatcher in nw Florida, the overall Buff-breasted Sandpiper "mini-invasion," the THREE Arctic Warblers in southern California, Common Rosefinch on the Farallones, etc. But even in a mediocre year, there are always some great fall vagrants found. AND, in many parts of North America, the BEST time for far-flung rarities is the last week of October and first half of November; so we haven't even quite gotten to prime time yet!

--Paul Lehman

Siberian Express???

2007-10-02T23:54:00.000-04:00

The term "Siberian Express" in the bird world has been used to describe years in which an unusually large number of Asian/Alaskan species appear in southern Canada and the Lower 48 States. So far, the fall of 2007 has been SUPER for Asian strays turning up on the Bering Sea Islands (e.g., Gambell, St. Lawrence Island and St. Paul, Pribilof Islands), with some good results in the western Aleutians (Shemya Island) as well. However, it is a LONG way from the Bering Sea to the U.S. coast of Washington to California, and there is nothing to guarantee that the birds that have occurred so far this autumn in Alaska will translate into a bumper crop of same farther to the south and east. Typically October and early November is the prime time for such Asian strays to occur in places like California, so we'll have to see how this month plays out. Even in a NON-Siberian Express year, there are often a few Red-throated Pipits, a few juvenile Sharp-tailed Sandpipers, and one or two rarer Asian/Alaskan passerines found, so the occurrence to date of a few of those does not signify a Siberian Express year--at least not yet.

--Paul Lehman

more irruptive forecasts

2007-09-26T13:07:00.000-04:00

In previous postings I mentioned the widespread movements of Red-breasted Nuthatches going on since mid-summer, and more local, recent flights of Purple Finches. More recently, out West, some Mountain Chickadees have been turning up in atypical/lowland locations. Forecasts of winter finch and related species movements in Ontario and elsewhere in Canada suggest that it might also be a very good late fall and winter for southward wandering Pine Grosbeaks, Evening Grosbeaks (if any still exist in the world!!; recent sighting already in West Virginia), and redpolls. Due to a food failure in Canada, Blue Jays are expected to have a major fall flight year in the East. Other possibilities for later irruptions southward in the East due to limited food supplies include Boreal Chickadee and Bohemian Waxwing.

--Paul Lehman

the Bering Sea -- California connection?

2007-09-15T10:47:00.001-04:00

Since 1999 I have been spending over a month every fall at Gambell, St Lawrence Is., in the northern Bering Sea, with sporadic, shorter visits before that. During years here with very high abundance of Red-throated Pipits and japonicus American Pipits during late August and September, there has followed a month later a major flight of these same two species down the Pacific Coast, mostly in California and Baja. "Poor" years here have meant poor years in California. So far the corelation has been good most every year. This year has been only so-so for those two species here: about average or perhaps just slightly below. (Although the season is not over yet!) So, if the correlation holds again, there will be only a few individuals here and there along the Pacific Coast (again, mostly in coastal California) between late September and early November, not a huge slug!

However, in contrast, there already has been a veritable invasion of Arctic Warblers in southern California, with 3 birds there during the past week or so. There were only two or three previous California records! And while three individuals does not exactly an invasion make, this fall here in the northern Bering was only barely average for this regular fall "trans-Beringian" migrant, which is recorded here at Gambell in moderate numbers in autumn as it heads back west from Alaska nesting areas to Southeast Asia for the winter. But maybe folks on the West Coast should be on the lookout this fall for Willow Warblers (given there have been three this year at Gambell so far)...!! It HAS been a very good fall to date this year for Asian landbirds out here in the Bering Sea region, so we'll see if there is any sort of "Siberian Express" event this fall along the West Coast.

--Paul Lehman

Major Cold Front in East

2007-09-15T10:42:00.000-04:00

A strong cold front followed by a large area of cool high pressure is sweeping east and south and will envelop most of the eastern half of the country from the eastern Great Plains eastward over this weekend (September 15-16). Undoubtedly there will be sizable movements of migrants, first in the Midwest, then farther east. One question is how long the winds will remain northwest (preferable) versus turning north to northeast (not as good in some areas, though still good in others). Temperatures are supposed to rebound fairly quickly at the beginning of next week. So get out fast!

R-b Nuts galore, Hurricane Peripheries

2007-09-06T22:20:00.000-04:00

In response to my previous posting about Red-breasted Nuthatches on the move, I heard from a few folks who mention that R-b Nuts are well represented in the lowlands of eastern Washington (and with a few Pygmy Nuts in the western Washington lowlnds, which is very unsuual), and that Red-breasteds have vacated the Colorado Rockies and are all over many lowland areas east of the mtns. there.

The news of a weak (Category 1) hurricane moving up the coast of western Mexico, and the remanants perhaps dumping copious rainfall on Arizona, has spurred mention here of which seabird species might be most likely to turn up there, if any. Generally, the species that tend to be displaced the farthest out from the center of the storm are Magnificent Frigatebird and Sooty (and perhaps Bridled) Terns. In contrast, the tubenoses tend to be found only much closer to the actual track of the storm.

Paul Lehman

Buff-breasts, Red-breasteds, and Purples

2007-09-02T10:52:00.000-04:00

Greetings from the Bering Sea, where highlights the past week include North America's second Willow Warbler here at Gambell on St. Lawrence Island, North America's fourth Marsh Sandpiper at Adak Island in the central Aleutian Islands, and the re-finding of the Brown Hawk Owl (first North American record) at St. Paul Island in the Pribilofs.

Several species are appearing in better-than-average numbers in parts of the Lower 48 as of late:

Buff-breasted Sandpipers, a very rare to casual fall migrant in the West, is making a relatively good showing along the Pacific Coast this year, and with also one bird inland in AZ.

Red-breasted Nuthatches have been on the move in parts of the East for many weeks now, with increasing numbers in many regions, and with odd birds having turned up well outside the nesting range already starting back in July.

Purple Finches are in unusually large numbers already in coastal Maine, so be on the lookout for this species to possibly occur in large numbers in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic this autumn.

--Paul Lehman

and from the Bering Sea....

2007-08-25T11:06:00.000-04:00

Greetings from a large rock (100 miles long) known as Saint Lawrence Island--and from the very northwest tip at the village of Gambell, where I am now residing for 6 weeks. But even here I am plugged in to all sorts of weather websites, birdingonthe.net, etc., and will be sending out periodic national birding forecasts--even though I feel like I am as far away as possible but still considered "national"! (The northeast tip of Russia is only 50 miles from here and can be seen easily on a clear day.)

So far it has been mild here--mild for the northern Bering Sea, that is--with temps consistently in the low to mid- 50s. That will undoubtedly change soon!

An interesting mix of oddball birds during the past few days here, with a Brown Shrike and Pechora Pipit from Asia, and a wandering "Western" Flycatcher and Purple Finch from well inside Alaska or beyond.

A cold front heading for the East Coast in the Lower 48 should produce some decent numbers of migrants over the next couple of days in the East, especially coming on the heels of a prolonged unsettled period.

Paul Lehman

Cool Front Approaching for Weekend

2007-08-17T07:20:00.000-04:00

A major cool front is sweeping through the Great Lakes region and should be through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend--with cooler daytime temps, much cooler nights, and lower humidities. Plus NW winds! So Saturday and Sunday have the potential of having a good early-season push of landbird migrants, perhaps including some of the early-season specialties such as empidonax flycatchers and maybe such goodies as Cerulean, Blue-winged, Golden-winged warblers, etc. Any good migrants trap might work, but particularly Cape May, of course! In contrast, the front might clear out many accumulated shorebirds and some other summering waterbirds.

--Paul Lehman

Big Flight in Progress

2006-04-24T12:15:00.018-04:00

BIG FLIGHT IN PROGRESS RIGHT NOW - 10:00pm Monday...FALLOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG FRONT

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