The Peerless Prognosticator

From Within

2009-07-13T13:54:00.003-04:00

Bruce Boudreau moves up from Hershey to Washington in 2007...

Bob Woods wins the 2009 Calder Cup with Hershey, gets promoted to assistant coach for the Caps...

Mark French is an assistant on the 2009 Calder Cup winners, gets promoted to head coach for the Bears...

Troy Mann, who has connections to both Boudreau (played for him when Boudreau was at Mississippi) and Woods (was a teammate of his with Mississippi), is named the Bears' new assistant coach under French.

John Walton has the details on the new Hershey bench boss and his assistant.

Development Camp -- Day One

2009-07-13T13:34:00.005-04:00

And…they’re off!

It’s Day 1 at Capitals Development Camp. Players, bloggers, twitterers, uh…coacherers. It’s nice to have hockey in July. If you’re looking for deep insights or comprehensive breakdowns of the performances of the young charges, well… we ain’t got ‘em. Not today. We have pics and a few comments…

One of the interesting subplots in the morning session was the frequency with which Joe Finley (6’7”, 229) was matched against Mathieu Perreault (5’9”, 165) in one on one situations. One might have thought that Perreault would skitter and dart and turn Finley inside out. Such was not the case… at least not too often. We’d rate the morning a draw between these two.

Speaking of Perreault, he was the special object of Coach Bruce Boudreau’s affection on one occasion when Perreault spent a little too much time hanging onto the puck trying to do everything himself. Perreault ended up shooting the puck into goalie Braden Holtby’s pads. Boudreau took him aside and explained how he’d never beat him that way (with a good-natured expletive tossed in for appropriate adjectival emphasis).

For Day 1, at least, it seems a bit like a stripped down affair in one respect. The Caps brain trust now seems to know what they want and how they want it, and there was a lot of situational action with teaching moments from Coach Boudreau interspersed. For the moment, there seems to be a bit of hesitancy – of not wanting to stand out by making a mistake – among the boys, but Boudreau and newly minted assistant Bob Woods were giving encouragement to guys in groups and individually.

But Boudreau did appear to offer a warning of sorts (at least, if our hearing wasn’t too poor) with respect to being in shape and what awaits in September when the stakes get higher. Knowing what took place at last year’s rookie camp before the vets arrived, this was no idle warning. As if to give the guys a taste, he conjured up an oldie, but a goodie, to close the morning session – what players refer to as a “bag skate,” in this case, from the near boards to the far boards and back, far faceoff dot and back, hash marks and back, etc., with one cycle added to each shortened distance, until the guys did six repetitions of near hash marks and back.

We won’t be at the afternoon session, but we’ll try to pick up things tomorrow. For the time being, some snaps of the morning action (click for larger images)…

Ten Games That Mattered In 2008-2009, Part III

2009-07-12T19:38:00.005-04:00

Here we are with another three-fer in the look at games that mattered in 2008-2009, a trio of games against a pair of traditional rivals, calling back memories of old Patrick Division scraps…

Washington at Philadelphia, March 12, 2009

The result: Capitals 2 – Flyers 1

The background: The Flyers were on a nice run – 10-4-1 since losing the first game of February to Boston. The streak included a 4-2 win over the Caps in Washington, keeping alive a streak of not having lost to the Caps in regulation this season (2-0-1). There were a couple of competing subplots to this on the Caps’ side of the contest. On the one hand, Washington was having a difficult March – they had lost four in a row to start the month before squeezing out a 2-1 overtime win in Nashville. On the other hand, that win in Nashville was the Caps’ fourth road win in a row. Which Caps team would show up was the question.

Why it mattered: The Flyers were very possibly a team that the Caps would have to face in the playoffs. If there was a time for a message – that the Caps could compete and do so on Flyer ice – this was the time. It was hardly a dominating performance, and not even an especially good road game in terms of style. The Caps were outshot, 36-30. They lost 32 of 48 draws. They were outhit 24-18. But they got goals from Brooks Laich and Alex Ovechkin, and they got one of the best performances of the year from Jose Theodore in goal (35 saves on 36 shots).

The takeaway: It was the first time since March 6, 2001 that the Caps had won five straight road games. For a team that spent five straight years not winning more than 15 road games (until winning 20 in 2007-2008), it was an important statement that they could win on the road and in a difficult place for opponents to do so. The Caps would go on to win 21 games on the road for the season, tied for second most in club history (22, 1983-1984).

New York Rangers at Washington, April 18, 2009

The result: Rangers 1 – Capitals 0

The background: The Capitals were, if not a prohibitive favorite, then certainly a solid one to eliminate the Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. However, the playoffs are at least as often as not a goaltender’s time of year. A hot goalie can steal a series, as any Caps fan of long-standing can attest. The flip side of that is that if a goalie is not on his game, the margin of error is so small in the playoffs that winning a series becomes iffy at best. Both sides of the coin were on display in Game 1 of the opening round series – Henrik Lundqvist stopped 32 of 35 shots for the Rangers, while Jose Theodore managed only 17 saves on 21 shots for the Caps in a 4-3 Rangers win. Given that Theodore limped into the playoffs, allowing three or more goals in four of his last five regular season games against bottom feeders Tampa Bay, the Islanders, Atlanta, and Florida, it was an ominous sign and raised the possibility of a change in goal for Game 2.

Why it mattered: Bruce Boudreau rolled the dice, to the surprise of the Verizon Center crowd, sending Semyon Varlamov out for Game 2. It was a calculated gamble. Varlamov had only six games of regular season experience, but in five starts he was 4-0-1 and did not allow more than two goals in any of them. Still, the playoffs are a different animal, but here to, Varlamov had some experience to draw on. In 22 playoff game appearances for Lokomotiv Yarloslavl in Russia over two seasons, he had a 2.00 goals against average and five shutouts. At the highest level at which he played before the NHL, he was successful in a playoff setting. And the gamble paid off in this one, even though the Caps did not win the game. The Rangers scored on their second shot of the contest – Ryan Callahan converting a two-on-one – but would add no more. Varlamov stopped 23 of 24 shots overall, and if not for the brilliance of his counterpart, Henrik Lundqvist (who stopped all 35 shots he faced for the shutout), would have been a winner in his NHL playoff debut.

The takeaway: Varlamov added to the evidence that his brief experience – wildly successful as it was – was no fluke. It was the sixth straight start in which he allowed two goals or fewer (a streak that would grow to nine before this series was over). And if the Caps hadn’t yet stopped the bleeding in this series, at least they gave evidence that momentum – something they showed they could capture when things looked like they could take a gruesome turn in the regular season – was once more bending in their direction.

New York Rangers at Washington, April 28, 2009

The result: Capitals 2 – Rangers 1

The background: The Caps had not won a seven-game series since defeating the Philadelphia Flyers in the Patrick Division semi-finals in 1988. Coincidentally, the Capitals won that series after fighting off a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7. So it would be in this game, the Caps riding the unexpected goaltending of Semyon Varlamov (five goals allowed in four games and two shutouts) to force the deciding contest. After winning Games 1 and 2, the Rangers’ offense went silent – five goals (two of those scored after the competitive portion of Game 6 ended after the Caps built a 5-1 lead through two periods) and 2-for-21 on the power play. The spice added to this game was the return of John Tortorella behind the Ranger bench. Tortorella took a seat in the stands after earning a one-game suspension for having squirted water into the Verizon Center crowd in Game 5 and tossing a water bottle over the glass into the stands. Six times the Caps had played in a Game 7, and in no such instance had they allowed fewer than three goals. Would Varlamov succumb to the curse of Game 7?

Why it mattered: All year, the Caps showed an ability to come back in games, even from multi-goal deficits. In this one, things started ugly… the Rangers registered the first five shots on goal, including a breakaway by Nik Antropov in the first minute. Caps fans might be forgiven if the beginning of this game looked like too many deciding playoff games from the Caps’ past. It got worse when Antropov snapped the puck past Varlamov in the game’s sixth minute on that fifth shot by the Rangers. But Varlamov shut the door on the visitors after that to allow the Caps to get their legs under them. Then fate, being fickle and heretofore not a Caps fan, smiled on the home team. Nicklas Backstrom carried the puck down the left wing and left it for Alexander Semin at the top of the faceoff circle. Semin wrong-footed a wrister than hit the shaft of the stick of a diving Ryan Callahan, then the puck hit Callahan again as it was going by, fluttering under Henrik Lundqvist’s glove and over his left pad to tie the game. You’d search a long time to find a goal like that scored by the Caps in a deciding playoff game. After that it was a goaltender’s game – again, the sort the Caps never could find a way to win when it mattered in the playoffs – but it was two different sorts of performances by the goalies. Lundqvist was peppered frequently by the Caps (22 shots in the last two periods), while Varlamov had to fight the tendency to lose focus with so few shots thrown his way (seven in the last two periods). Would Lundqvist blink, or would Varlamov let one slip by between yawns? It was a blink late in the third that decided things, when Sergei Fedorov scurried down the right side, slammed on the brakes, used defenseman Wade Redden as a screen, and rifled a wrist shot over Lundqvist’s glove on the short side for the winning margin.

The takeaway: For only the second time in Caps’ history, they won a Game 7. For the first time in Caps’ history, they allowed fewer than three goals in a Game 7. For the first time a long time, dating back to the 1998 playoff run to the Stanley Cup final, fans could say that it was the other team that faced the hot goaltender in a deciding game (well, the series, actually). For the first time since that playoff run 11 years ago, the Caps won a playoff series of any sort. And there was more than a whisper comparing Semyon Varlamov – 4-2 in the series, 1.17 GAA, .952 save percentage, and two shutouts – with Cam Ward (a rookie who led the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup in 2006) and Ken Dryden (a first year player – he would be a “rookie” the following year – who led the Montreal Canadiens to a Stanley Cup after playing in only six regular season games in 1971).

A Major Announcement! A Major Announcement!!

2009-07-12T12:17:00.003-04:00

So sayeth the NHL...

MEDIA ADVISORY

WHAT:		The National Hockey League will make a major announcement concerning a special event

WHEN:		Wednesday, July 15 @ 2:00 p.m. ET

WHERE:		Fenway Park Yawkey Way Boston, MA 02215 This event also will be simulcast on NHL Network and streamed live on NHL.com

NOTE:		Media should enter via the media entrance at Gate D, located at the corner of Yawkey Way and Van Ness Street. Doors will open at 1:00 p.m. ET. In the event of rain, media should still enter via Gate D and proceed to the State Street Pavilion. ...gee, can you guess what it might be?

Ten games that mattered in 2008-2009, Part II

2009-07-11T13:59:00.013-04:00

We would be remiss if we did not acknowledge that Reed-CK over at Capitals Kremlin has already penned a compilation of the top-ten games of the year, and it would be hard to quibble with the games he picked. But we're going to plug along here, because we're fighting off a bit of a cold, and we just don't want to stop in the middle of this. So, let's look at another three-fer of games that mattered this past season...

Washington at Montreal, December 13, 2008

The result: Capitals 2 – Canadiens 1

The background: Montreal came into this game having been undefeated in regulation against the Caps on home ice in the last five games at Bell Centre. The teams were also tied in standings points (37). For the Caps, it was the back end of a back-to-back, their fifth such set of games in a month. They had split the previous four. But the Caps won the first half of the back-to-back leading into this game, and it was a night of note. The previous night was the night that Brett Leonhardt was tapped to take warm-ups and pull baseball cap duty until Semyon Varlamov could get into town from somewhere in Texas, where the Hershey Bears were playing. Well, given the Caps injuries in goal, this night might just as well be the night when Varlamov would make his own debut on the ice.

Why it mattered: Varlamov did, in fact, get the call in this one, and except for one iffy goal was perfect. He made 32 saves on 33 shots (not including one save by the crossbar mid-way through the first period), and many of those saves were of highlight quality. There was also the matter of Michael Nylander scoring the game-winning goal, one which he scored late in the third period to break a 1-1 tie on a ricochet off Montreal goalie Jaroslav Halak while falling backward at the side of the net.

The takeaway: Hope. On the one hand, that the Caps investment of a first round pick in Semyon Varlamov would pay the sorts of dividends in the long term that they did in this game. He showed why he was a first round pick, displaying the sort of acrobatic athleticism that allowed him to cover ground (or ice) that few goaltenders could. And, there was Nylander, who scored his first goal in almost two months. Maybe this would be the spark – a somewhat ugly goal – that would get him out of his funk.

Washington at New York Rangers, December 23, 2008

The result: Capital 5 – Rangers 4 (OT)

The background: The Caps were fat and happy heading into the holiday break. They had won seven of eight games since dropping a 5-4 decision to Florida to open the month. But then they went to Philadelphia, played their best period of hockey of the year (25 shots in the first period and utter domination of the home team), but ended up getting splattered across the South Philly pavement after they failed to score in that first period and lost, 7-1. Now, they would head to Manhattan, another inhospitable venue.

Why it mattered: The Caps had shown an ability to come from behind, evidenced by the 4-3 win over Pittsburgh in October, when they spotted the Penguins three goals. But when the Caps fell behind the Rangers, 4-0, early in the second period, watched as Jose Theodore was pulled for a gimpy Brent Johnson (who clearly looked as if he was having physical problems), then saw Theodore go back in (he would give up that fourth goal early in the second), it looked like it would be a Grinchly Christmas for the Caps. But then… Alex Ovechkin spun and threw a puck at the net from the left wing half wall late in his shift. The puck looked as if it changed direction several times before settling over goalie Henrik Lunqvist’s shoulder to at least get the Caps on the board. But later… Tomas Fleischmann scored in the early in the third to make things interesting… then Viktor Kozlov snapped a wrist shot past Lundqvist… then Ovechkin stole a deflected pass at the Ranger line, settled the puck, and broke in alone on Lundqvist, potting the puck and tying the game. When Shaone Morrison scored the unlikely goal in overtime (it was his first of the year, and his first dating back to February 26^th, also a game winner), it was another reason to think no lead was safe against the Caps.

The takeaway: Momentum. There is no telling what the effect on the Caps might have been had they been pasted by the Flyers (after that amazing first period) and the Rangers right before the holiday. But the fact is, this game propelled the Caps into a seven game winning streak, what would be their longest of the season.

Washington vs. Detroit, January 31, 2009

The result: Capitals 4 – Red Wings 2

The background: The Capitals hadn’t had a test like this since facing San Jose in November, a test they flunked. And, they were having some trouble getting traction as far as momentum goes. After their seven-game winning streak starting with the comeback in over the Rangers, the Caps lost three in a row, won three in a row, then lost a pair in a row coming into this game. Detroit was missing some parts, too, as Henrik Zetterberg (groin) and Tomas Holmstrom (back) sat this one out with injuries, and Chris Osgood took the day off in favor of Ty Conklin. Still, it was the Red Wings, and the Caps weren’t such a hot team coming in.

Why it mattered: Big time. The Caps traded goals with the Red Wings in the first period (Ville Leino for the Red Wings late in the period, followed by Viktor Kozlov a minute later) and in the second period (Mike Green for the Caps late in the period, followed by Johan Franzen two minutes later). But then, it became the Alex Ovechkin show. Ovechkin scored goals 76 seconds apart in the third period. Big players step up in big games, even on a Sunday in January. And, with the win, the Caps tied the Red Wings with 31 wins on the season.

The takeaway: Momentum II. The win – on the last day of January – served as the right way to move into February, where the Caps went 9-3-1, including wins in New Jersey and in Boston, and against Pittsburgh. But there was another sort of “momentum” that started with this game. Nicklas Backstrom came into this one on a four-game pointless streak (his longest since a five-game streak in October). But starting with this game, in which he had a pair of assists, he would go 7-19-26, plus-4 in his next 21 games, failing to register a point in only three of them.

Hail! to the Victors Valiant...

2009-07-10T20:49:00.007-04:00

...Hail! to the conquering heroes
Hail, hail, to Michigan...

From whence Mike Knuble and today's signing, Brendan Morrison, hail.

Knuble played four years with the maize and blue, ending in 1995, where in 157 games he was 103-72-175 with 238 penalty minutes. Morrison wore the Michigan colors for four years, ending in 1997, where in 155 games he was 102-182-284, with 159 penalty minutes. Morrison won an NCAA champsionship with the Wolverines in 1995-1996, and capped his stay in Ann Arbor by winning the Central Collegiate Hockey Association Player of the Year award and the Hobey Baker Award in 1997.

...but as a former Spartan, they might call it maize, but we still call it "corn."

Ten games that mattered in 2008-2009

2009-07-10T12:50:00.003-04:00

Since we're sitting here in the throes of summer, waiting for development camp and pondering the latest signing (elsewhere) of free agents, we thought we'd provide some fresh leftover reading material -- a look back at the 2008-2009 season and ten games that mattered in the course of things. Some are wins, some are losses (some of them grisly), but all have something to take away from them. We won't cover them all at once, but we will cover them chronologically. Here is a three-fer to get you started...

Washington at Atlanta, October 10, 2008.

The result: Thrashers 7 – Capitals 4

The background: Opening Night. Atlanta was coming off a disappointing year, finishing 14th in the 15-team Eastern Conference, unveiling a new slogan, “Become One in Blueland.” The Caps were coming off a disappointing finish to a spellbinding season that saw them rise from worst to first in the Southeast Division and a three-seed in the playoffs, where they lost to Philadelphia in the opening round. But it was a different Caps team in one important respect. The goalie who led them on a sprint to the finish, going 11-2-0, 1.63, .936, with two shutouts in the process, signed a contract with Chicago. The Caps were left to pursue a “Plan b,” signing Jose Theodore to a two-year deal. Theodore would open for the Caps on Opening Night.

Why it mattered: Theodore was shelled, giving up four goals on 17 shots in 29:30 of play before being relieved by Brent Johnson (who took the loss after the Caps tied the game late in the second period). Everything that the Caps could be – good and bad – was on display. The Caps spotted the Thrashers a 3-0 lead, but tied the game at four in the second, but… they gave up three goals in 2:10 in the third period to provide the final margin. The Caps were a grisly six-for-nine on the penalty kill, the nine shorthanded situations faced being as bad as the poor percentage of success, but… David Steckel potted a short-handed goal to get the Caps back within one after falling behind 3-0. Mike Green had a three-point night (2-1-3), but… he was on the ice for the first two Thrasher goals.

The takeaway: For a team now employing a goaltender for whom the consensus seemed to be that he lacked consistency, this was just about the worst start imaginable.

Washington at Pittsburgh, October 16, 2008.

The result: Capitals 4 – Penguins 3

The background: A Capitals-Penguins game is always special for the teams and their fans, but the addition of an Alex Ovechkin-Sidney Crosby rivalry has only added to it, giving it national (in two countries) significance. And on top of that, these were two teams that many speculated would meet in the spring. The Caps had not won on Mellon Arena ice in regulation since a 4-1 win on December 3, 2002. The only player on the roster from that team was Michael Nylander, and he had two stop-overs (Boston and the Rangers) before returning to the Caps.

Why it mattered: This was a two-fer. First, there was the matter of being able to win on the road, in Mellon Arena. Then there was the matter of the Caps being able to crawl out of a 3-0 hole (all the goals scored on the power play) they dug for themselves only 21:51 into the game. And it wasn’t Alex Ovechkin leading the way – he would finish this game scoreless. The Caps got goals from Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin, Michael Nylander, and Boyd Gordon, and they got two-point games from Fleischmann, Semin, Nylander, and Eric Fehr to fuel the comeback. Boyd Gordon had the game-winner on a delayed-decision goal after he ripped one (well, as much as “Muffin” can rip one) that hit the back pipe of the goal and had it bounce back out fast enough to make it unclear whether the puck crossed the goal line in the first place. After more than two minutes of play continued, a replay showed that it did in fact count.

The takeaway: A game that the Caps fall behind early, on the road, against a formidable opponent, in which Alex Ovechkin didn’t have a point… and they win. There might be some resiliency in this team after all. And Sidney Crosby was a minus-3 for his trouble.

Washington at San Jose, November 22, 2008

The result: Sharks 7 – Capitals 2

The background: The Caps started a western part of a five-game road trip with a 10-4-3 record, but the west has not been generally hospitable to the Caps in the past. They split two games (winning in Anaheim before losing in Los Angeles) before heading to San Jose. The Sharks came into this game 16-3-1 and were 10-0-1 at home, where they had scored 41 goals in those 11 home games. This would be a game by which the Caps could measure themselves – a hot team widely expected to be on the short list of Stanley Cup contenders.

Why it mattered: If this was a test, the Caps flunked. But better such a test be administered now then late in the season. While the Caps had a good record coming in, they showed themselves capable of putting up the real stinker (the opening night loss to Atlanta, a 5-0 loss in Buffalo, a 5-2 loss to Los Angeles). But the Caps seemed to save these for lesser opponents; they showed an ability to compete well against better teams (the 4-3 win over Pittsburgh, a convincing 4-2 win over an up-and-coming Chicago team in the home opener, beating nemesis Roberto Luongo in a 5-2 win over Vancouver). But this was the biggest test of the season to date, and the Caps came out flat and had the look of a disinterested team.

The takeaway: If it was a lesson, it was a lesson apparently taken to heart. The Caps would lose their next game – at Minnesota – but would then snap off a 16-4-0 record in their next 20 games, giving up only 48 goals in the process, holding 12 opponents to two goals or fewer. And no one might have had to learn a tougher lesson on this night than defenseman Jeff Schultz. He was on the ice for the first three goals the Sharks scored (all in the first period) and five of the total of seven, finishing a minus-4 for the evening. But over his next 20 games, he was 1-2-3, +18.

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

2009-07-08T06:34:00.006-04:00

- Much has been made about President Barack Obama's remarks in Moscow expressing pleasure about the contributions of a certain Russian to American -- and specifically Washington -- culture. Well, here's a nod to Alexander Semin (98 goals in his last three seasons) and Semyon Varlamov (11-6-1, 2.49, .918, two shutouts in his combined inaugural regular and playoff season), a couple of up-and-coming Russians in D.C. We're pleased to have them here, too.

-- What's with the contracts for defensemen? First, Tampa Bay gives Mattias Ohlund a seven year deal (he'll be 33 years old on opening night). Now, the Flyers have given Chris Pronger a seven year contract extension ($34.7 million) that will keep him as a Flyer property until Pronger is 42 yearsold. And, the deal is front weighted. Seems the NHL has finally learned the NFL trick of adding useless years to the end of contracts to smooth the cap hits on big deals.

-- So Joe Sakic is hanging up his skates. We've always thought of him as sort of the Cal Ripken of hockey. If you see him once, you might be inclined to ask "what's all the hype about?" Flash has not been his stock in trade over a 20-year career. But if you see him often enough, you get it. His is the attention-to-detail and understated skill that wins hockey games and championships. He is, in the best sense of the word, a "winner." And, like Ripken, he's done it with one franchise, an unheard of accomplishment in this day and age. Your hall of fame plaque is waiting, Joe.

-- And if you're wondering what a Caps "plan" looks like when it matures, look at Detroit (which has been doing it for more than a decade -- an argument for patience). Guys are up for big contracts, but if they're not part of the core, the Wings wave goodbye. Ken Holland locked up Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Daysyuk, and Johan Franzen, who will be teammates at least through 2013-2014, when Datsyuk's deal expires. But Marian Hossa (12 years/$62.8 million with Chicago) and Mikael Samuelsson (three years/$7.5 million with Vancouver) are allowed to walk to make way for young guys coming through the system. Even Ty Conklin, a more than serviceable backup goalie (two years/$2.6 million with St. Louis), is bid adieu. To replace him, the Red Wings will see what Jimmy Howard can do, a goalie who has served a 187 game apprenticeship in the AHL awaiting his chance. And the Wings will see what guys like Jonathan Ericsson, Darren Helm, and Justin Abdelkader can do with more responsibility. The Wings don't rebuild, they reload.

Chops Broiled in Iowa

2009-07-07T13:51:00.006-04:00

One and done... to a crisp.

The American Hockey League has announced that the Iowa Chops -- rebranded to much fanfare one year ago today -- have been "involuntarily suspended" by the league based on an inability "to remedy certain violations of the provisions of the league’s Constitution and By-Laws." The Des Moines Register has more on the story...

"[AHL President and CEO Dave] Andrews declined to cite the specific violation, but the Des Moines Register reported last month that the club had used the franchise as collateral to obtain a loan in March 2008 from a North Carolina branch of Wachovia Bank. Records obtained from Polk County have disclosed the loan amounted to $1.99 million and was used to cover operating costs.Andrews has said such loans are not permitted under league rules."

The suspension ends any hope of a 2009-2010 Chops season in the AHL. Talk about your troubled franchises. They started operations as the Iowa Stars in 2005-2006 (transplanted from Louisville, where they were the "Panthers," an affiliate of the Florida Panthers). Since moving to Iowa, the Stars (which became the "Chops" this past year) have had affiliations with the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Anaheim Ducks, the last of these ending this past May. When the new name was announced last July, team owner Kirby Schlegel noted that the new name "perfectly represents our vision of the new team... It illustrates Iowa’s agricultural heritage while also playing into the definition of ‘chops’, having nerve, resilience and staying power." Staying power appears to be one year, absent any corrective measures to restore the franchise to normal business operations.

It makes a Caps fan (not to mention a Hershey Bears fan) thankful for the stability and tradition a couple of hours up the road.

Perhaps as a function of the Iowa situation, the AHL is realigning its divisions. The new alignment has this look...

According to the AHL, Hershey will play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 12 times in the 2009-2010 season. Familiarity, as they say, breeds contempt.

Scratch Scratch Scratch

2009-07-07T06:48:00.004-04:00

The unrestricted free agent signing period in the NHL is hockey’s version of perverted hope. Just one more piece (or two or three or four), and your team can compete for a playoff spot or, be still my beating heart, a Stanley Cup championship.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t often work out that way. But it doesn’t stop some teams from going over the top with their signings. Every year, it seems, there is one signing (ok, at least one) that gets one to scratching their head – what are they thinking?

A couple of years ago, it was St. Louis – a team that finished 15 points out of the playoff eight in the Western Conference, lavishing Paul Kariya with a three-year, $18 million contract. Kariya, playing for a weak team that would finish worse off than it did in the year before he was signed by the Blues, would have a decent year, all things considered – 16-49-65, -10 – but was hardly a difference maker on a club that finished with 79 standings points (two fewer than in 2006-2007), good for 14th in the West. Not much return on that investment, and one could probably see it coming when it happened.

Last year, it was Wade Redden, once a promising defenseman for a strong Ottawa Senator team, but whose production slipped after fellow defenseman Zdeno Chara left the Senators for Boston. It made for another head-scratching moment when he was signed by the New York Rangers as an unrestricted free agent to a six-year/$39 million deal. While the Rangers held on late to secure a playoff spot (after a 10-2-1 October), Redden struggled to a 26-point season (his lowest point total since his second year, in 1997-1998) and a minus-5 (worst of his career), often earning the wrath of fans and news columnists in the Big Apple. It is a contract we’re sure the Rangers would like to unload at this point.

This year there are a number of candidates for top head-scratching deal. There is the five-year/$37.5 million deal signed by Marian Gaborik with the New York Rangers. Gaborik has played in 207 of a possible 328 regular season games since the lockout and is coming off a season in which he played only 17 games and had hip surgery. We can, however, understand the thin thread of logic on which this deal hangs. The Rangers finished 28th in scoring for the 2008-2009 season (2.44 goals/game) and amazingly, given the reputation for weak defense the Washington Capitals had, managed only 1.57 goals/game in the seven game opening round playoff loss to the Caps. Gaborik, when healthy, is perhaps one of the top-five offensive talents in the game.

However, a bigger head-scratcher might be the deal signed yesterday by Alex Kovalev with the Ottawa Senators. Although the term is agreeable for a 36-year old forward (two years), the $5 million a year seems more than a bit odd. In his four full seasons in Montreal, Kovalev topped 30 goals only once and topped 65 points only once. On an 82-game basis, Kovalev averaged 28-43-71, -2. But except for his big 2007-2008 year (35-49-84, +18, in 82 games), he had a rather disappointing stay in Montreal overall.

That Ottawa would spend so heavily on a player who isn’t likely to play on a playoff team in either of the next two years (especially if Dany Heatley is unloaded for prospects in trade), and to give him a $500,000 raise to boot, well... it's a head-scratcher.

There are other head-scratchers out there… Atlanta giving $4 million a year to a player who has yet to net 30 goals or reach 60 points in a season (Nik Antropov)… Tampa Bay giving a 33-year old defenseman (on opening night) a seven-year contract (Mattias Ohlund)… Toronto giving a player with one full season in the NHL (20-28-48, minus-8) a three-year/$8.7 million deal (Mikhail Grabovski).

You might have your own head-scratchers to add. This summer, be careful… you might end up bald from all the head-scratching you’ll do.

Happy Independence Day

2009-07-04T08:09:00.004-04:00

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States... And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

-- In Congress, July 4, 1776, The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen United States of America

Say WHAT?!

2009-07-02T14:58:00.004-04:00

In 1981, Joe DiMaggio gave his opinion to Sports Illustrated on the escalation of salaries in major league baseball...

"If I were sitting down with George Steinbrenner (to discuss a salary) and based on what Dave Winfield got for his statistics, I'd have to say, 'George, you and I are about to become partners.'"

That quote came to mind upon reading that Mikhail Grabovski was signed to a three-year/$8.7 million contract to re-up with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Next summer, Nicklas Backstrom is going to sit down with Ted Leonsis and raise the possibility of a partnership, if this is what a 25-year old with one full season played in the NHL (48 points) -- the only one he's spent in Toronto -- and barely 100 games of NHL experience is getting.

The Meaning of Knuble

2009-07-02T07:52:00.006-04:00

OK, so the Caps got a right winger with size and a nose for the net. That's descriptive, to a point. But inserting Knuble into the Capitals lineup has, one would think, quantitative meaning. It does.

First, that "nose for the net" thing. If you look at the Caps at 5-on-5 last year, only Eric Fehr (among right wingers) shot the puck from a shorter average distance (29.5 feet) than Knuble (30.0 feet). If Fehr is the right wing in waiting -- the guy expected some day to be that winger with a nose for the net -- he's going to have a good role model to observe in Knuble.

Then there is the matter of Knuble being a capable first-line right wing, a replacement for the departed Viktor Kozlov. Kozlov was a player of considerable skill, a skill that too often went unexpressed. In 148 games with the Caps, Kozlov (skating largely with the top line, matched with Alex Ovechkin and either Nicklas Backstrom or Sergei Fedorov) went 29-66-95, +19. In his last two seasons, Knuble played in all 164 games and went 56-46-102, +2, playing along side of talent that arguably didn't match what Kozlov played with.

How Knuble might feast in this environment, though, is reflected in shots. Kozlov was and probably is a better, smoother puck handler. His ability to lug the puck into the offensive zone under control and maintain possession was a valuable commodity. The flip side of that, however, is that Kozlov really didn't shoot the puck that much (certainly not much for a player of his skill level). His 3.18 shot attempts-per-game (shots on goal, shots blocked, shots missed) was only sixth among forwards on the team. On the other hand, Knuble averaged 3.65 shot attempts per game last year (15 percent higher than Kozlov). Part of this difference is ice time (Knuble averaged about 2.5 minutes more in average ice time than Kozlov), but Knuble's presence might take some of the pressure off of Alex Ovechkin from having to launch (not that he's against this sort of thing) the 9.9 shot attempts-per-game he had last season.

Then there is the power play and the man Knuble is likely to replace here. That would seem to be Brooks Laich, and that could be a win-win. Here is why. Knuble is adept at planting himself in the goalie's line of vision and capitalizing on tips and rebounds. He was fourth among Flyer forwards last year in power play scoring last year, third in goals (11-9-20). Laich was also fourth in power play scoring among forwards, third in goals (9-15-24). What Knuble's addition can do is provide Laich with opportunities on the second power play unit -- presumably against weaker penalty killers -- to perform the same role, parking in front and collecting loose change. It's worth noting here, too, that Knuble's 11-9-20 compares favorably to Kozlov's 2-13-15 on the power play.

There is the matter of Knuble's post-season production, or lack of it. It has been mentioned as a drawback to this signing. In 41 career post-season games, he is 8-11-19, -9. Fair enough; that's not exactly lighting it up. On the other hand, Kozlov -- whose roster spot Knuble assumes -- was 4-8-12, -6 in 35 career post-season games. Not much difference there. But here's the thing. Kozlov was a slow starter. In his first five appearances in the playoffs, he was 0-6-6, -11 in 21 games. He was 4-2-6, +5 in 14 games this past post-season with the Caps.

Knuble's path is similar. In his first four appearance in the playoffs (with the Red Wings and Bruins), he was 2-3-5, -7 in 17 games. In three playoff appearances with the Flyers, he was 6-8-14, -2 in 24 games. Not as large an improvement as Kozlov, perhaps (although one might always question if that was a one-shot wonder for Kozlov), but steadier.

There is also the matter of consistency. In his four years with the Flyers, Knuble played in all 82 games three times. He averaged 28.5 goals a year. If you take his 2006-2007 season, in which he missed 18 games, and convert his 24 goals scored to an equivalent 82-game pace, then his four seasons with the Flyers had goal totals of 34, 31, 29, and 27. There is the hint of a downward trend there, but it is also rather consistent.

And, with that goal scoring, he's accurate. In his four seasons with the Flyers, he never had a shooting percentage worse than 15.0 percent. In the last four seasons, only one Cap has bettered 15 percent more than once (Alexander Semin, who has done it twice).

Knuble brings attributes and skills that the Caps simply haven't had and that they have desperately needed -- size (and an inclination to use it), an ability to score from in close, consistency, reliability. We read that he has been a model teammate in Philadelphia, which can't hurt in a locker room where chemistry seems to be an essential ingredient to success.

Is Mike Knuble worth the extra $300,000 a year that he will be paid above that which Viktor Kozlov was paid? Today, in the beginning of July, you'd have to say he was a bargain. But grades don't get handed out before the first day of class, either. This deal works if, all other things equal, the Caps go further in the playoffs than they did this past season. But right now, Knuble looks to be the right fit for this team to achieve precisely that aim. He is that "next tier" of free agent that seems more often to make a difference than the guys who grab the headlines on the first day of signings.

The Only Commentary on Free Agents You'll Ever Need

2009-07-01T12:17:00.021-04:00

As it happens (or as it happens we hear about it)...

The Sedins re-sign with Vancouver for 5/$30.5M apiece.

Caps impact (1 being a gnat landing on Don Cherry's ass, 10 being Sidney Crosby traded to Washington): 1.5

- Oh, please, like they were going anywhere. This crap happens every year somewhere. Will so-and-so pillar of the franchise, who grew up in it, take off for greener pastures? This year, in stereo (you remember that, don't you?).
***

Dwayne Roloson is "testing the market."

Now, wouldn't Jose Theodore look great in blue and orange?
***

Mattias Ohlund to Tampa for 7/$26.25M

Caps impact: 4

Makes Tampa Bay marginally more difficult to play against, but the Lightning need a lot of help in a lot of places, and the term will kill them. Seven years? For a guy who will be 33 years old on opening night? Even if the contract is heavily front loaded (as Darren Dreger is blogging at TSN), it seems a bit much.
***

Radek Dvorak re-signs with Florida for 2/$3.4M

Caps impact: 2

$1.7 a year for what amounts to a 35-point-a-year player seems a bit much, but maybe Florida had to do something after moving Bouwmeester, and all in all the term and dollars seem manageable. We're guessing they'll have to do a lot more, though.
***

Colton Orr to Toronto for 4/$4M

Caps impact: 1

Brian Burke signs tough guy... call CNN. Maybe Ottawa can sign Donald Brashear so he can beat the snot out of Orr six times a year. Not seeing where this is worth almost a doubling of pay (he was a $537,000 cap hit last season).
***

Florida re-signs David Booth for 6/$25.5M

Caps impact: 4

Booth is a nice player, even for $4.25 million a year. His points scored progression has gone 10-40-60 in his three seasons. He might not be a "core" player in the same way a Backstrom or a Green is in Washington, but he is a "foundation" player that a team can build with. Better to sign a home-grown for this money than import talent.
***

Craig Anderson to Colorado for 2/$3.6M

Caps impact: 4

Tomas Vokoun has been the man in Florida for the past two years, but Anderson gave the Panthers 48 games of solid goaltending -- he might have been every bit as good as Vokoun. Certainly he was as efficient over his fewer appearances. Moving him out of the Conference raises the question of who backs up Vokoun. We can't imagine he'll provide as much solid relief as did Anderson.
***

Matt Walker to Tampa Bay for 4/$6.8M

Caps impact: 5

The "impact" here might be on any arbitration for Shaone Morrisonn. Last year, with Chicago, he was 1-13-14, +7 in 65 games, 0-2-2, -4 in 17 playoff games. Morrisonn was 3-10-13, +4 in 72 games, 0-1-1, +1 in 14 playoff games.
***

Ty Conklin to St. Louis for 2/$2.6M

Caps effect: 1

Nothing to see here as far as the Caps are concerned. But Jimmy Howard had better be ready; he'll be backing up a 37-year old in Detroit (Chris Osgood) who didn't have the best of regular seasons.
***

Marian Hossa to Chicago for 12/$62.8 million

Caps effect: 4

Hossa has an odd way about him in terms of follow-up. First, he bolts Pittsburgh to join the team he lost to the Cup finals, then he loses with his new team to the team he left. Now, he leaves Detroit for the up-and-coming division rival. He will be 41 when this deal is over, if it lasts that long. And, the deal is very heavily front loaded -- $59.3 million of it paid in the first eight years ($7.41M/year) according to TSN (updated for new numbers). But Chicago had cap space aplenty, too. It's risky paying this kind of money and term for a talented player, but one who just happens to have seen his points drop from 100 a couple of years ago in Atlanta to 66 and 71 the last two years. Then again, it might just guarantee Chicago a spot in the Cup finals (where Hossa has appeared in the past two seasons... and lost). He's the big prize in this free agent class -- the other blocks should start to fall into place.
***

Dwayne Roloson to the Islanders for 2/$5.0 million

Caps effect: 3

Guess they weren't bringing Joey MacDonald back. Guess they're thinking Rick DiPietro won't be back (for opening night, at least). He's an upgrade to any goalie who played more than one game with the Islanders last year. But he's a patch. Besides, everyone will be watching Tavares, anyway.
***

Mike Knuble to Washington for 2/$5.6M

Caps impact: 7

A right winger who can score. According to NHL.com, the Caps had 37 goals in 250 man-games out of the right wing position last season. Knuble had 27 in 82 games. He's had at least 20 goals in each of the last six seasons (62 of his 165 goals in that span scored on the power play). And, he is the only top-six forward the Caps have who can reliably plant himself at the doorstep to collect rebounds. Is he the best forward in this class? Not by a long-shot. But this is about something the Caps don't address first in a draft, where they go (or so they say) for the best available player. This signing is need, pure and simple. The money is a bit higher than expected, but it is still a value signing.
***

Donald Brashear to New York Rangers for 2/$2.8M

Caps impact: 5

Oh, the irony. Brashear joins the team he done wrong in the playoffs (twice) to earn a six-game suspension. He replaces one of the guys he wronged -- Colton Orr (with whom Brashear was involved in a pre-game altercation). And, he gets a raise and a two-year deal on top of it. Will it matter? Well, it will be interesting to see Brashear playing the Caps four times (if he dresses for all of them). His toughness will endear him to coach John Tortorella. His production on the fourth line won't. You'd have to think this is his last big payday (he'll be 37 on opening night). It's a big one, given his job description.
***

Scott Niedermayer re-signs with Anaheim for 1/$6.0M

Caps impact: 1

Major yawn. It was Anaheim or nowhere, but losing Chris Pronger attached some more urgency to this signing, even with Ryan Whitney starting the year there and a decent prospect in Luca Sbisa coming in on defense.
***

Joel Ward re-signs with Nashville for 2/$3.0M

Caps impact: 1

Not bad for an late blooming (28 years old) undrafted free agent to grabbed the first rung of the ladder with the Houston Aeros in the AHL, then went to Minnesota as a free agent, then to Nashville... as a free agent. He had a nice year with the Predators last year (17-18-35, +1 in 79 games). Is it a bit much for a player with only one full NHL season? Maybe, but it's also rewarding one's own.
***

Brian Boucher to Philadelphia for 2/$1.85M

Caps impact: 3

A low-risk signing. He's familiar (103 career games for the Flyers from 1999-2002), he's competent (12-6-3, 2.18, .917 in San Jose last year). Given Philly's goaltending situation, he might get at least that many decisions next season. Alex Ovechkin might start practicing trick shots.
***

Jaroslav Spacek to Montreal for 3/$11.5M

Caps impact: 3

Montreal -- on paper -- should never have finished eighth in the East last year. But they did, and they were likely to lose defenseman Mike Komisarek (they did, later, to Toronto). They needed something to plug a hole. Spacek is certainly a competent defenseman playing in 205 games with the Sabres over the last three years (22-76-98, +29 in that span). But he's not going to have the physical edge Komisarek had.
***

Nikolai Khabibulin to Edmonton for 4/$15M

Caps effect: 2

Well, $3.75 million a year for four years for a goalie who was an unmitigated bust in his first two years of a big contract in Chicago is a bit surprising, but Edmonton didn't have a lot of choices. With Dwayne Roloson gone to Long Island and Jeff Deslauriers looking like the last man standing between the pipes, well... enter The Bulin Wall. He might end up being this coming season's Jose Theodore, even after a big year in Chicago... in the walk year of his big deal with the Blackhawks (convenient how that works out).
***

Erik Cole re-signs with Carolina for 2/$5.8M

Caps effect: 5

Cole was 16-11-27, minus-3 in 63 games with Edmonton last year (three of the goals came in a hat trick against the Caps on January 13th). Then he was sent back to Carolina, for whom he played 418 games before heading to the Canadian prairie. He finished 2-13-15, plus-3 in 17 games. You'd have to think (or like to think, if you're a Hurricane fan) that Cole knew where "home" was and signed on the dotted line. The Caps aren't going to like seeing him six times next year.
***

Scott Clemmensen to Florida for 3/$3.6M

Caps effect: 5

A little surprising he'd land here, given the job he did as an emergency number one replacement for Martin Brodeur in New Jersey last year (25-13-1, 2.39, .917). He comes in behind an established goalie in Tomas Vokoun, but might even be an upgrade to the departed Craig Anderson in a backup role (if his 2008-2009 season wasn't a fluke). Last year was the first in six seasons that he appeared in more than 13 games. He'll get more than 13 games in Florida, but he wouldn't seem likely to be the number one there, either.
***

Ian Laperriere to Philadelphia for 3/$3.5M

Caps effect: 6

It's as much that Laperriere didn't come to Washington as it is he ended up on a team the Caps are likely to battle for a playoff spot. The Caps needed a physical edge, and Laperriere might have provided it. He will do it for Philly for the seemingly cheap price of $1.17 million/year.
***

Michael Rupp to Pittsburgh for 2/$1.65M

Caps effect: 3

This looks like the sort of "under-the-radar" sort of acquisition that is making a reputation for Ray Shero. He will not contribute much by way of offense, but he will be a physical presence in the lower half of the forward lines.
***

Hal Gill to Montreal for 2/$4.5M

Caps effect: 4

The Canadiens needed to fill a physical hole with the departure of Mike Komisarek. The question will be whether Hal Gill is going to be that guy. Gill has -- or perhaps more accurately, had -- an ability to use his size to stifle more offensively skilled players such as Jaromir Jagr -- when he was with the Caps, for instance -- or even Alex Ovechkin, to a degree. But Gill is getting some age on him, too. Still, he stays in the conference, and the Caps will have to deal with him four times a year for the next two years.
***

Kent Huskins re-signs with San Jose for 2/$3.4M

Caps effect: 1

Another of those "do right by your own" sorts of deal, one supposes. It might be a little surprising -- $1.7 million a year -- for a guy who didn't play last year after December 31st (33 games altogether). He did have a fine 2007-2008 year for the Ducks, so they've seen close-up what he can do.
***

Mike Cammalleri to Montreal for 5/$30.0M

Caps effect: 4

Not that the Caps were likely to splurge on a big name FA center, but Cammalleri was one that some fans might have envisioned in a red sweater. But now he gets to skate in Verizon Center twice a year, anyway. Montreal sure isn't being shy about signings. But they seem to be shrinking in the process.
***

Greg Zanon to Minnesota for 3/$5.8M

Caps effect: 4

Could be another of those that has a market-setting effect for a guy like Shaone Morrisonn for the Caps. More of a stay-at-home type who would be a pretty solid addition wherever he ended up.
***

Mike Komisarek to Toronto for 5/$22.5M

Caps effect: 3

Now Toronto gets even more difficult to play against. Pavel Kubina was the only defenseman the Maple Leafs had last year passing for a defenseman with an edge, and that wasn't going to work for Brian Burke (in fact, Kubina wasn't going to work for Burke -- he was shipped to Atlanta in a deal that had another edgy defenseman -- Garnet Exelby -- going to Toronto). If you discount Jay Bouwmeester as a defenseman moved in a trade, Komisarek might have been the top defenseman who was likely to change teams (that is, not including Scott Niedermayer).
***

Steve Sullivan re-signs with Nashville for 2/$7.5M

Caps effect: 1

Maybe a bit of a surprise that he's staying in Nashville, but it seemed fitting for one of the better stories carrying over from last year when Sullivan returned from almost two years lost to injury to play well in 41 games and win the Masterton Trophy. And he remains one of the great steals in trade. The two picks Nashville gave up to get him from Chicago -- Ryan Garlock and Mike Blunden -- have played a total of ten NHL games (all by Blunden, none since playing one in 2007-2008).
***

Samuel Pahlsson to Columbus for 3/$7.9M

Caps effect: 2

Another one of those guys that some Caps fans might have thought would look good skating on F Street. Pahlsson seems like a very good fit for the Blue Jackets -- the sort of defensive forward who will do well in a Ken Hitchcock system.
***

Mathieu Garon to Columbus for 2/$2.4M

Caps effect: 2

Perhaps might influence the market for backup goaltenders in terms of the sort of compensation a Brent Johnson might get. Garon has fallen quite far since posting a 31-26-3 record for Los Angeles in 2005-2006. Since then, he's played in 32, 47, and 19 games a season.
***

Marian Gaborik to New York Rangers for 5/$37.5M

Caps effect: 5

If a healthy Gaborik skated for the Rangers in the first round of the playoffs, the Caps wouldn't have advanced. But the operative word there is "healthy." Gaborik is coming off of hip surgery (he's had surgery on each hip in each of the past two seasons). And, he goes from skating on the nice ice of Minnesota to the parking lot that is the Madison Square Garden surface. Good luck with that. Over/under on the number of games Gaborik plays -- 40. Odds on being healthy for the playoffs -- even. In the end, this is going to look like the typical Ranger checkbook signing... a lot of hoopla in the beginning and a lot of disappointment in the end.
***

Brian Gionta to Montreal for 5/$25M

Caps effect: 3

Montreal goes smaller still, and to more skill again with the addition of Gionta. Gomez, Cammalleri, Gionta -- they'll fly around the ice, and probably won't get pushed around as much as one might expect for players of such diminuitive stature. They're all pretty sturdy on their skates, or at least elusive. For Montreal, the calculus is now simple... Gomez + Cammalleri + Gionta > Kovalev + Koivu + Tanguay? On paper, it looks that way. But when you factor in the liability in contract dollars and term, it's still a risk. If any of these guys stumble, it's the wrong town for that sort of misstep.
***

Chris Neil re-signs with Ottawa for 4/$8.0M

Caps effect: 3

The sort of forward with an edge that the Caps might have needed stays in Ottawa, but at that price and term? Too many years (Neil is only 30, but plays a style that might result in breakdowns -- he missed 22 games last year) and too much money. Would he have been worth, say, four years and $9.0 million here? Don't think so.
***

John Madden to Chicago for 1/$2.75M

Caps effect: 3

It gets him out of the conference, at least. This is likely to affect the Devils more than the Blackhawks, where Madden was a mainstay as the embodiment of the Selke-class defensive-forward. His numbers might have suffered some as the NHL changed its style coming out of the lockout (he is minus-20 in four seasons since the lockout, compared to plus-50 in the four seasons preceding it), but he is still a guy who can match up against the other team's best offensive player effectively. He is perhaps not as consistently able to do it, though.
***

Martin Havlat to Minnesota for 6/$30.0M

Caps effect: 1

Huh? OK... last year he played in 81 games for Chicago and put up 77 points. He might be the most gifted offensive player in this free agent class (with apologies to Hossa and Gaborik). But his injury report reads like an episode of "House." Since the lockout alone... hamstring, shoulder, ankle, groin, shoulder, groin, shoulder, "lower body." Before last year, Havlat played in 109 of a possible 246 games over three seasons coming out of the lockout.
***

And there endeth the first day. There are a lot of names still out there, and while the Caps seem unlikely to add any of them to their roster, it should still be entertaining. We're going to be busy the next few days with other commitments, but we'll try to sign on and babble about this stuff some more as time allows.

Happy shopping all you junior GMs.

Oh Yeah, and NHL Free Agency, Too

2009-07-01T06:51:00.003-04:00

If you tire and grow weary of the non-stop NHL feeding frenzy that today's opening of the unrestricted free agency signing period promises, just remember that other things happened on this date. For instance...

-- It is the birthdate of Samuel D. Riddle, in 1861. He was the owner of the famous race horse, Man o' War.

-- Charles Laughton was born on this date in 1899.

-- Cosmetics founder Estee Lauder was born on this date in 1908.

-- Famous shoe collector Imelda Marcos was born on this date in 1930.

-- Speaking of fashion, famous television cross-dresser Jamie Farr was born on this date in 1934.

-- Dan Aykroyd was born in Ottawa (this being a hockey sort of day) on this date in 1952.

-- Lady Diane Spencer was born on this date in 1961.

-- And guys...Pamela Anderson -- another Canadian -- was born on this date in 1967.

Some other things that happened on this date...

-- The first intercollegiate baseball game was held in 1859. Amherst defeated Williams, 66-32. Guess they hadn't gotten around to that "mercy rule" thing just yet.

-- In 1898, Teddy Roosevelt and his "Rough Riders" charged up San Juan Hill.

-- In 1899, the Gideons were founded by three traveling businesmen. The first Bibles were placed at the Superior Hotel in Iron Mountain, Montana, in 1908.

-- Walter Johnson no-hit the Boston Red Sox, 1-0, in 1920. Seems Washington did have pitching once upon a time.

-- Bulova Watch Co. was the first customer for a paid network television commercial, in 1941. The price?... nine bucks.

-- In 1943, withholding from pay checks was initiated.

-- In 1963, The Beatles recorded "She Loves You."

-- In that same year, the U.S. Postal Service introduced its "Zone Improvement Plan." You know it as the "zip code."

-- In 1972, "Ms." magazine began publishing.

-- In 1987, WFAN (New York City) became the first 24-hour all-sports radio station.

Just a few of the things July 1st is famous for, other than NHL free agency. And to all you folks north of the border....

Christmas in July

2009-06-30T08:29:00.003-04:00

Christmas Eve.

You’d think, anyway. It is the day before the unrestricted free agency signing period begins, and all across North America hockey fans will go to sleep to dream of sugar daddy GM’s stuffing their approved NHL-logo stockings with free agent goodies.

You’d be better off wishing for coal.

Below we show you a table of all the NHL players who earned at least $6,000,000 last year (salary, not cap hit, according to the NHL Players Association):

46 players earning an average of $7.1 million last year. Quite a collection of talent. A lot of them earned that money as a product of signing a contract as a free agent with a new team, lured away by the promise of riches and offering the promise of success for their new teams and their fans. That list of big-money players who were signed away by another team to get that paycheck looks like this:

We interpret this pretty narrowly. These aren’t “trade and sign” guys, these are guys who were signed away to big contracts without intervening personnel actions. We've tried to weed those guys out. We're looking at the straight-up, sign the player away from another team sort of player. We are left with 17 players making an average of $7.0 million. Still a formidable lineup. But the object of the exercise is to win a Stanley Cup, and the object of the July exercise is to sign talent that will get a team to that goal. So, of this group, who has hoisted a Cup since signing their big deal?

Now we’re left with a very short list. Three players who earned an average of $6.3 million last year. But it gets better. Consider Sergei Gonchar and Brian Rafalski. Both are defensemen, both signed big contracts with new teams (Gonchar having been signed away from Boston in 2005, Rafalski from New Jersey in 2007). But both did so with teams -- the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings – that signed home-grown talent to larger deals before they won a Cup. Pittsburgh signed Sidney Crosby to a five-year, $43.5 million deal in 2007 (before winning a Cup in 2009), while Detroit signed Nicklas Lidstrom a two-year, $15.2 million deal in 2006 (before winning a Cup in 2008).

That leaves us with one big bucks free agent – Scott Niedermayer – who stands as the centerpiece of a Stanley Cup champion, the 2007 Anaheim Ducks. But even here, the conclusion isn’t all together cut and dried. Jean-Sebastien Giguere was signed to a big deal (at the time) after the 2002-2003 season (Giguere isn’t “home grown, either, having been drafted by Hartford in 1995, but he had been with the Ducks for three years before his big payday).

Here is the point. Unrestricted free agent – at least at the top end of the pay scale – is the single most overrated aspect of personnel management and talent acquisition. The Stanley Cup being a rare commodity – there is only one champion crowned a year – we would expect that there would be a lot of failure if winning the Cup is the criterion for free agent signing success. But to have this many players – 17 – signed away to big contracts and one Cup to show for it (unless you count teams that also signed home-grown talent) begs the question, is all this hype over the next big signing worth it?

But hey, what other entertainment will a hockey fan have in the first week of July?

Bedtime Snacks... And the Dreams They Beget

2009-06-28T11:52:00.004-04:00

Ugh...

Really, no more anchovy and pineapple pizzas before bed, especially after looking up and down the draft results...

But then again, I had slept in just a little while longer, I might have had this one dreaming about recent Capitals drafts...

Looking Back at a Six Pack of Drafts...To Look Forward

2009-06-28T09:21:00.005-04:00

So… the Caps have added seven players to their stable in the 2009 draft, and for a team that relies as heavily on the draft as the Caps purport to do, it’s time to take a moment and look at what this draft -- and those preceding it -- will yield.

We use the future tense there, because we’re thinking about five years from now, when the kids selected yesterday will be the men making contributions. Five years from now, we will be looking forward to the 2014-2015 season, and we could be looking at a Caps team that employs a lot of draftees. That would be the hope, anyway. So, if we look at the past half-dozen drafts, starting with the haul of talent picked in 2004, we would have the following first and second round picks (with a couple of lower picks sprinkled in) playing regularly (or occasionally) for the Caps…

You could add to this a number of players who would be no older than their early 30’s…

Eric Fehr (29 when the 2014-2015 season ends, 2003 draftee)
Tomas Fleischmann (31)
Boyd Gordon (31, 2002 draftee)
Brooks Laich (32)
Alexander Semin (31, 2002 draftee)
David Steckel (33)
Milan Jurcina (32)
Shaone Morrisonn (32)

Yes, that makes 30 players. But then again, not all will be here – some could leave hockey (or the NHL), others might be traded, some might be stuck (so to speak) in the minors, and there are those who could leave for free agency. The point is that the Caps have embarked on a path, and they have walked it resolutely. But there are holes, too. Even adding Fehr, Fleischmann, Laich, and Semin to the list, it seems light (or at least uncertain in depth) in skill wingers. There are considerable question marks at center, despite Anton Gustafsson’s pedigree and Capitals management’s ebullient commentary on Marcus Johansson.

The Caps have a core – winger (Ovechkin), center (Backstrom), defenseman (Green), and – we hope – goaltender (Varlamov/Neuvirth). The draft can fill in around that; it is the conveyor that will keep feeding talent (if the scouting department does its job) for years to come. But like George McPhee said with respect to the other legs of the player personnel triad…

"There wasn't a lot of [trade talk] that went on here. There may be more of that next week and closer to camp. We're not going to force anything. The season doesn't start until October… We've got guys internally who can do it. We'll just see what's out there. If there's a player out there that can help our club, we'll be interested. Just don't expect us to go out and commit to a big or long-term deal in free agency. We've seen that movie before."

The trick -- when you depend on the draft for skill -- is using trades and free agency to fill in the holes, to find the role players, to find those spark plugs that can ignite a long Stanley Cup run.

The draft part looks – on paper – pretty strong, and that will feed the core as time goes by (again, we hope). But it seems there is work to be done over the next 15 weeks or so until that opening night in October. The fun is just beginning.

Mr. Looking Up At Everyone Else

2009-06-27T13:56:00.006-04:00

In the National Football League, he is called, Mr. Irrelevant. He is the last player taken in the draft. On the rare occasion, Mr. Irrelevant has his place in the sun. Marty Moore (New England Patriots) and Jim Finn (New York Giants) have played in a Super Bowl.

In the NHL, the odds are long on the last pick taken to make it in the show. Since the entry draft was established in 1979, only eight players taken last have played in an NHL game, and only three of them have played in more than 100 NHL games (Kim Johnsson leading the pack with 679 NHL games played). Paul Maurice, taken last in 1985, did not make it as a player, but he's had a productive career as an NHL bench boss.

This year, it is Petteri Simila, a goaltender from Karpat-Jr. out of the Finnish junior league, taken by Montreal. Like a lot of goalies taken in this draft (six of them are 6'4" or taller), he's got some size -- 6'6", 189. He'll need to have the sturdiness such size suggests, because he's looking up at everyone else. Good luck to him and to all the draftees.

So...How'd We do?

2009-06-27T10:07:00.007-04:00

Well, really good for the first five picks...

After that, not so good. But we did have 25 of our 30 picks actually taken by someone in the first round. We suspect that's a pretty good batting average.

Day One

2009-06-27T09:44:00.003-04:00

Well, It’s the day after Christmas for draft geeks, and it’s time to survey the damage as the suits proceed to the second round. What happened?

We were not surprised that when the suspected Dany Heatley and Phil Kessel deals failed to materialize, the media in attendance jumped on the oldie-but-goodie, “Chris Pronger to somewhere (in this case, Philly)” possibility. The trade that was consummated will be hailed as a “blockbuster,” we suppose (actually, a "mega deal" in Montreal). It’s not, although it does address needs for both teams. In that respect, it could be “win-win”… to a point. Pronger fills an immediate need (although the way a Jay Bouwmeester deal might have…now that would have been a blockbuster), but not the need for the Flyers. That would be an NHL goaltender, seeing as how Martin Biron and Antero Niittymaki are free agents (and probably not the goaltending the Flyers would need to be a Cup contender anyway). Anaheim jettisons a big contract and gets younger.

Gary Bettman came to the podium and stood as a long introduction in French was given. Rough translation…”Welcome, hockey fans. Behind me is the Commissioner – feel free to boo (they boo). Yes, yes, boo your lungs out. And you, Mr. Commissioner… on behalf of all hockey fans, let me just say… you suck! (crowd erupts in applause, Bettman beams, not having a clue).” Upon which, the Commissioner, in perfect unaccented French oozes to the podium and says, “Muhr-see bow-coo…bone swahr.” I felt as if I was at a Truffaut film festival.

And then there was Bettman at the podium flanked by Henri Richard and Yvon Cournoyer. You remember the end of the movie Caddyshack? When Al Czervik is flanked by his henchmen? I half expected Bettman to say, “Moose, Rooco…help the judge find his checkbook.” But seriously, Richard looked as if he still could play (or at least was looking for someone to check), while Cournoyer looked sort of like the great character actor Cecil Kellaway...

Then it was time for the show… Garth Snow, his face a mask of emotionless plaster slow walked to the podium, giving nary a hint of who he would pick – John Tavares? Victor Hedman? Matt Duchene? Charles Wang? Then scout Mario Saraceno provided the required French introduction and noted that 10,000 fans were at Nassau Colisseum…no doubt the biggest crowd of the year there. And the winner of three fun filled years as a New York Islander is (drum roll please)….

John Tavares!

As the arena welcomed the latest player of the century to the podium, we were left to wonder… was Garth Snow wearing inflated shoulder pads under his suit coat?

After that, the needle on the suspense meter fell precipitously, despite the intrepid efforts of the folks doing the pick-by-pick play-by-play on television. There’s a trade! Wooooo! Pronger to Philly! It’s official! President Obama will comment on the deal at nine o’clock! But we were wondering about something else…

“snack buckets?”

What was up with the buckets on the team tables stuffed with Frito-Lay products? Why not just have buckets of peanuts and have the team personnel hurl the shells to the floor? Or maybe have Brian Burke and Bryan Murray hurl them at each other.

The rest of the evening had a rather dull patina of sameness to it… make a pick, wait for the hugs, follow the victim – uh, draft pick – to the podium, get the handshake (why was Bettman saying, “great job” to all the picks? Congratulating them on not tripping on their way to the stage?), put on the jersey and hat, pose for pics…NEXT!

Versus could have shown a documentary on putting side view mirrors on Ford’s at the assembly plant.

We’ll have more to say about the Caps’ pick/picks later, but we do want to ask… did someone kill George McPhee’s goldfish just before he went to the stage? I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an angrier looking McPhee. Maybe he had a deal that went south at the last moment, but that was not a happy camper stomping to the stage. The pick – Marcus Johansson – seemed an afterthought, and it broke the land speed record for shortest time spent on stage making a pick. No French intro, no thanking the Canadiens and their fans, no – ugh – congratulations to the – ugh – Stanley Cup champion Penguins. Just, “the Capitals pick Marcus Johansson, now let me get the hell outta here.”

As these things go, it wasn’t bad. It was rather quaint, in fact. None of the over-the-top production that is the NFL draft with Breathless Berman and Kinetic Kiper. None of the Roman Coliseum look of Emperor Stern and the NBA draft (cue the trumpets!). None of the strutting and preening among the draftees that those drafts seem to have developed. Just a bunch of well-scrubbed kids and their folks thrilled to be there and a gaggle of suits standing on the stage with jerseys and hats, scared out of their wits that they’ve just placed their livelihoods at the mercy of a bunch of 18-year olds.

Trade the Pick, George!

2009-06-26T06:58:00.007-04:00

Since the Caps are drafting in the 24 slot this evening, we thought we would take a look back down the road at what the 24th pick has yielded over the past 30 years. Well…here it is (click on the image for a larger version):

Not a hall-of-famer in the bunch, although one might argue to keep and eye on Daniel Briere and Mike Richards. We also looked at NHLers of note picked within five slots after the 24th pick. Frankly, that looks like a better pool of players, although yes…we are looking at up to 150 picks that came later – bigger pool, better chance of finding someone who actually contributed. But it is a more impressive pool, nonetheless. You could cobble together a decent team with the likes of Joe Nieuwendyk, Scott Mellanby, Martin Havlat, Zigmund Palffy, Brenden Morrow, Teppo Numminen, Steve Staios, Mike Richter, and the like.

But there are three players in the first 21 of these 24th-overall picks who did not play a game in the NHL. Five more played fewer than 50 games.

As for performance, if you look at the 20 forwards selected at 24th-overall, their careers average slightly more than 200 games with 100 points. The six defensemen average about 230 games over their respective careers with about 50 points. The goalies are decidedly mediocre overall -- .500 win-loss percentage, GAA around three, save percentage around 90 percent. Decent, on average, but there haven’t been many “stars” selected in this slot.

We keep looking at those players selected shortly thereafter, though, and wonder whether it would be better for the Caps to move the pick.

Which species has the shortest memory of any primate?

2009-06-25T14:03:00.003-04:00

The media!

OK, it's a trick question. The media aren't primates.

But here's the point. We have been perusing the hockey blogs, columns, news reports, and such over the past few days, and there is, well..."buzz."

"What sort of buzz," you ask? Well, there is the matter of whether the Islanders will really take John Tavares with the first pick, or if Garth Snow will listen to his inner muse and take Matt Duchene.

Then there is the usual chatter about how there will be this, that, or the other "BLOCKBUSTER" trade made at this draft (it's a hardy perennial).

Or the one where so-and-so is desperately working the lines to move up two... five... ten spots up the draft order and will offer up his entire bucket of selections through the 2014 draft if only he can have the number one overall pick.

We just have one question for the folks who perpetrate and perpetuate these sorts of story lines...

HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MINDS?

Every year we go through this, and every year the media forgets what they should have learned the previous year -- general managers of major professional team sports franchises are among the most risk-averse creatures on the planet. Big moves mean big risks, and how often are they made? You remember them because they are so rare and stand out so starkly against a backdrop of dull gray sameness.

Garth Snow is going to be called up to the podium to recite the name he's been practicing in front of his bedroom mirror for a month -- "John Tavares." Islander fans will cheer, Snow will sigh the sigh of relief that he didn't screw up (until and unless, of course, Tavares turns out to be a dog...then Islander fans will rise as one and shout, "ya shoulda took Duchene, we knew it all along!").

The only "blockbuster" in evidence this weekend will be the store selling videos (are they still around?). They might even have copies of the Penguins' march to the Stanley Cup.

And no one is leaping from 21st to 1st by moving a fist full of picks, prospects, and other prizes to pick Tavares (or Duchene, or that Hedman kid). We're not going to see the NHL equivalent of Mike Ditka trading his whole draft -- plus picks in the following draft -- for Ricky Williams (now there's a cautionary tale).

It'll be a nice, quiet draft, just like it is most every year...

...except for that buzzing.

It's all in the name...

2009-06-25T12:01:00.004-04:00

Drafts in any sport have many entertainments. There is the suspense in seeing who will be drafted, which young prospect your favorite team will pick, the wheeling, the dealing, the squealing when the picks are made. But there are often a number of young men at these events whose names just conjure a whole other set of mental images. And at the NHL draft, which is as global an event as such things get, there are some names that fairly leap off the page. For instance...

Brayden McNabb, D (Kootenay/WHL) . A perfect fit for Philly. They’d have another McNabb to boo. If the Phillies could find a “McNabb,” they could have 365 days of McN-abbuse to heap upon their sports teams. Philly heaven.

Linden Vey, RW (Medicine Hat/WHL). Wonder how early in life he picked up the nickname, “Oy?”

Matthew Tipoff, RW (Bellville/OHL). Wrong sport, son. Shouldn’t you be in the gym for the opening, well...tip off?

Andrej Nestrasil, RW/C (Victoriaville, QMJHL). Sounds like a nasal decongestant. When tree pollen has you stuffed up…”Nestrasil.”

Max Tardy, C (Duluth East (HS-MN). Better send a driver for him so he’s on time.

Evan Bloodoff, LW (Kelowna/WHL). Sounds vaguely like a spot-remover, doesn’t it?

Ondrej Havlicek, C (Czech-JR). Meet Matthew Tipoff.

Joonas Hurri, D (Pelicans Jr./Finland-JR). Now, if he could be paired with Uppan Slowdown.

Jakub Ciger, C. (Martin Jr./Slovak-JR). So, he shoots just wide, and the play-by-play guy goes, “close, but no…”

We mean no disrespect to these young men, they just happen to have names we'd like to hear called this weekend. For these young men (and we kid because we love) and all those who are a part of this weekend’s festivities, may it be the times of their lives.

For Your Mockification -- The Peerless' 3rd Annual Draft Mocknostications

2009-06-23T20:52:00.003-04:00

And now, we bring you what all of you have been waiting for…

The 3rd Annual Peerless Draft Mocknostications

While we are a practicing member of the Bloggerhood of Hockey Bloggers, we cannot claim to have seen any of the fine young men who might be selected in this draft in actual hockey action. We are hard pressed to spell their names correctly (yeah… spell “Paajarvi-Svensson” without looking it up). But this will not keep us from sounding authoritative and certain in our conclusions, no matter how batty they might be… sort of like Don Cherry, without the weird suit coats. So, without further introduction…

Once more, in a tradition carried down from the ages, the clock strikes 7:00 pm on Friday. Gary Bettman will be greeted by throngs of adoring fans adept at masking their cheers as boos. The Commissioner will slither to the podium, clear his throat, flick his forked tongue once… twice… and announce… “with the first overall pick in the 2009 National Hockey League entry draft, the New York Islanders select…

1. New York Islanders -- John Tavares, C. Oshawa Generals/London Knights, OHL (60 games, 58-46-104, 54 PIMs)

Former picks at (1): Rick DiPietro (2000), Denis Potvin (1973), Billy Harris (1972)

What do the Islanders need?... Divine intervention. That’s not far from the truth. In terms of immediate needs, the Islanders have some talent on the blue line (Mark Streit and…) and at right wing (Kyle Okoposo and…). Everywhere else, it looks really grim. For the Islanders, there is no “draft for need,” since they need everything. Tavares will step right into the lineup, probably as their top line center, on opening night. He can’t help but be a shot in the arm. The Islanders did not have a center with as many as 40 points last year. Shoot, they didn’t have a forward with 40 points.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning – Victor Hedman, D. Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik, SEL (43 games, 7-14-21, 52 PIMs)

Former picks at (2): none

What do the Lightning need?... A brain. Last year, the Lightning made a lot of noise by ordering up a bunch of checkbooks and almost going through the whole lot of them. And that makes one wonder if, having lost the lottery to pick first, they would trade this pick (we did say they needed a brain?). If you’re a Caps fan, you hope they do, because they almost certainly won’t get value comparable to what Hedman offers down the road. Hedman isn’t likely to have quite the immediate impact Tavares has (will the Lightning front office have enough brains to recognize they need to be patient?), but he might be the more valuable player in the long run.

3. Colorado Avalanche – Matt Duchene, C. Brampton Battalion, OHL (57 games, 31-48-79, 42 PIMs)

Former picks at (3): Curtis Leschyshyn (1988,Quebec Nordiques)

What do the Avalanche need?... a fuller cupboard. What happened to this franchise? So good for more than a decade, the fall was hard and fast, and it isn’t as if there is a deep prospect pool waiting to step up. For the Avalanche, it’s back to basics – building strength down the middle. And this is a team that did not have a 60-points scorer last year. Duchene might not step in right away, but he won’t be long in moving up the ladder.

4. Atlanta Thrashers – Evander Kane, C. Vancouver Giants, WHL (61 games, 48-48-96, 89 PIMs)

Former picks at (4): none

What do the Thrashers need?... Better luck. This will be, if they don’t trade it, the sixth top-five pick in the Thrashers’ history. The others were Patrik Stefan, Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, Kari Lehtonen, and Zach Bogosian. Of that group, only Kovalchuk and Heatley could be said to have fulfilled any significant portion of the potential such a top pick suggests, and Heatley achieved his in another city (we’ll wait on the matter of Bogosian). In any case, the Thrashers have had a poor batting average with high picks. And now, Evander Kane. Kane might not step in right away, either, but his jump to the Thrashers might be faster than Duchene’s. Atlanta had four players with 50-plus points last year. Two of them – Slava Kozlov and Todd White – will be at least 35 at season’s end next year, and Ilya Kovalchuk might not even be a Thrasher at the end of the year. Kane could be on the fast track to the big time.

5. Los Angeles Kings – Brayden Schenn, C. Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (70 games, 32-56-88, 82 PIMs)

Former picks at (5): none

What do the Kings need?... Time. More than any team in the top five, the Kings can keep one eye on need while looking for the best player available. They had eight players 25 or younger who skated at least 40 games last year. Jonathan Quick tended goal in 44 games and won’t be 24 until January. The Kings look to be pretty deep in prospects at lower levels. This pick might have gone to the Scrabble triple word score from Sweden, and the Kings having selected fellow Swede Oscar Moller in 2007 might have lent weight to that view. But Moller had experience in North American hockey before the draft, having skated with Chilliwack in the WHL in the season leading up to the draft. The Kings will look west again, not east.

6. Phoenix Coyotes – Jared Cowen, D. Spokane Chiefs, WHL (48 games, 7-14-21, 45 PIMs)

Former picks at (6): none)

What do the Coyotes need?... Stability. You can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a story concerning the Coyotes and their ownership situation or potential relocation or financial woes. This was a team that was five games over .500 as late as January 20th (and they pancaked the Red Wings, 6-3, to get there). They finished the season 12-20-2 and have spent the off-season wondering where they’ll be this time next year. And into this maelstrom will be deposited young Mr. Cowen, who represents the real wild card of the top 20 or so picks. He had a serious knee injury in January, and that could be what makes him a wild card here. Otherwise, he seems to have the physical tools -- 6’5” and 220 or so pounds. Even with the injury, he seems to be the highest rated defenseman in this draft not named “Hedman,” and the Coyotes could probably use some beefing up on defense among their prospects.

7. Toronto Maple Leafs – Zack Kassian, RW. Peterborough Petes, OHL (61 games, 24-39-63, 136 PIMs)

Former picks at (7): Luke Richardson (1987), Russ Courtnall (1983)

What do the Leafs need?... A couch. Yeah, a couch… In places other than Toronto, there seems to be a perception that Maple Leaf fans have a sense of entitlement – deluded at that – that they are the Yankees of the north, the gold standard of hockey (in Toronto there seems to be a morbid, “what other ways can we find to suck” attitude). When did they win a Stanley Cup last, again? That speaks to a lack of patience, that somehow, if they just add a part or two, they’ll be right back in contention. Well, they drafted fifth overall last year, and now they go seventh. The Leafs need lots of parts. Kassian is a stretch here, seeing as how the consensus seems to think he’s a 10-20 pick. But we suppose one has to remember who is doing the picking here, too. Kassian seems like a player Brian Burke would like, more so than the smaller, if more skilled forwards who would be available here.

8. Dallas Stars – Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D. Leksand-IF, Swe II (39 games, 3-14-17, 32 PIMs)

Former picks at (8): Richard Matvichuk (1991, Minnesota North Stars), Derian Hatcher (1990)

What do the Stars need?... More than you might think. The Stars haven’t drafted in the top ten since 1996 (Richard Jackman, for those keeping score). It speaks to the strength of the organization over the last decade-plus. But that era seems to have come to an end. What’s worse, the team – reflecting its consistently low draft position – doesn’t seem to have a lot of high-end prospects in the pipeline, especially on defense. And that’s where Ekman-Larsson comes in. OEL was a plus-44 in 39 games. Sure, this was done at the second level of hockey in Sweden, but he also won’t be 18 years old for another month.

9. Ottawa Senators – Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, LW. Timra IK, SweJE (50 games, 7-10-17, 4 PIMs)

Former picks at (9): Brian Lee (2005)

What do the Senators need?... Juice. Last year, the Senators finished 23rd in the NHL in scoring. An odd thing, given that the Senators employed Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley. But there it is. The Senators don’t have any scoring depth, and they might be losing Heatley – who has requested a trade – before too long (perhaps at this draft). And it isn’t as if there is much by way of scoring forwards in the prospect pool. Picking Magnus Triple Word Score could help the Senators start stocking up some offense-oriented forwards for the day (soon) when Heatley might be gone and the day (maybe not long after) when Alfredsson will be gone.

10. Edmonton Oilers – Ryan Ellis, D. Windsor Spitfires, OHL (57 games, 22-67-89, 57 PIMs)

Former picks at (10): none

What to the Oilers need?... A quarterback. The Oilers got respectable offensive production from its blue line last year – four defensemen had at least 30 points, and all of them were “plus” players. But Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky will be 33 at the end of next year. Denis Grebeshkov is an arbitration eligible free agent. And there doesn’t seem to be a lot in the system as far as offensive defensemen go. Ellis was the OHL defenseman of the year in the OHL this past season and led all defensemen in assists and total scoring (with a plus-52 to go along with it).

11. Nashville Predators -- Jordan Schroeder, C/RW. University of Minnesota, NCAA (35 games, 13-32-45, 29 PIMs)

Former picks at (11): none

What do the Predators need?... great balls o’ fire. Nashville has something of a reputation that followed the Caps around in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s…defense-first, scoring where they can get it, competent goaltending. What might surprise some folks is that since the lockout, the Predators were in the top half of the league in scoring for three years running (5th in 2006-2007) before tumbling to 24th last year. And looking at the forwards, there is potential there down the road, but there would seem to be room for a kid who comes out of a big-time program with as much skill as Schroeder seems to have displayed.

12. Minnesota Wild – Nazem Kadri, C. London Knights, OHL (56 games, 25-53-78, 31 PIMs)

What to the Wild need?... A new attitude. The Wild play before sellouts every night. What they haven’t done is play an especially high-energy style of hockey. That might change now, with Todd Richards taking over behind the Wild bench. Since the lockout, the Wild have seen their offensive production slip slightly, but consistently, from an average of 2.76 goals per game in 2005-2006 to 2.61 goals per game last year. In that time, they have not been ranked higher than 18th in scoring. And this is a team that employed Marian Gaborik (occasionally) over that time. Unfortunately, the prospect pool for the Wild does not seem conducive to a more offensive style of play. The Wild could use more depth in skill. Kadri would appear to provide that.

13. Buffalo Sabres – Scott Glennie, RW. Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (55 games, 28-42-70, 25 PIMs)

Former picks at (13): Marek Zagrapan (2005), Drew Stafford (2004), Philippe Boucher (1991), Joel Savage (19988), Larry Playfair (1978)

What do the Sabres need… XXL. What do the following prospect forwards have in common – Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe, Tim Kennedy? All are 5’9” or shorter, and none weigh more than 170 pounds. The new NHL is more accommodating than its predecessor in tolerating players lacking size, but Buffalo could use more of it up front. Glennie will bring more size, and without sacrificing a solid two-way game, if his press is to be believed.

14. Florida Panthers – John Moore, D. Chicago Steel, USHL (57 games, 14-25-39, 50 PIMs)

Former picks at (14): none

What do the Panthers need?... That Ponce de Leon guy to show up again. The Panthers had seven defensemen last year who played in at least 68 games. Four of them are 30 or older. Three of them – Nick Boynton, Karlis Skrastins, and Jassen Cullimore are unrestricted free agents. And then there is the big free agent prize – Jay Bouwmeester – who looks to be moving somewhere. There is some talent in the pipeline, but there are holes that will need to be filled.

15. Anaheim Ducks – Louis Leblanc, C. Omaha Lancers, USHL (60 games, 28-31-59, 59 PIMs)

Former picks at (15): none

What do the Ducks need… OH-fense. Ryan Getzlaf will play another dozen years and probably have a Hall of Fame worthy career. But last year the Ducks didn’t get much out of the center position after Getzlaf, and it appears to be a shortcoming in the prospect pool, too. Leblanc could fill a need and be the best player here. Besides, for a guy who sounds like he might have written the great Western novel, he has to go west, right?

16. Columbus Blue Jackets – Drew Shore, C. USA-U18, USDP (62 games, 17-32-49)

Former picks at (16): none

What do the Jackets need?... “C” doesn’t just stand for Columbus. No center with the parent club had as many as 50 points last year. Derick Brassard will be such a player at some point, but for the time being he has to come back from a shoulder injury. In the system, Columbus seems thin in this area. Drew Shore is not thin – at least he won’t be when his frame fills out.

17. St. Louis Blues – Jeremy Morin, LW. USA-U18, USDP (46 games, 26-22-48, 99 PIMs)

Former picks at (17): Marek Schwarz (2004), Barrett Jackman (1999)

What do the Blues need?... Not much. Prospect-wise, that is. The Blues are fairly well off at most positions in terms of prospect depth. A winger wouldn’t hurt, especially on the left side. The Blues can afford to look at needs in terms of 3-5 years down the road as much as “best player available.” Morin would get to measure himself against his favorite player (Patrick Kane, according to the NHL.com scouting report) who has Morin’s favorite goal celebration.

18. Montreal Canadiens – Dmitry Kulikov, D. Drummondville, QMJHL (62 games, 12-50-62)

Former picks at (18): Kyle Chipchura (2004), Matt Higgins (1996), Brad Brown (1994), Gilbert Delorme (1981), Norm Dupont (1977), Bruce Baker (1976), Paul Reid (1964)

What do the Canadiens need?... “D…D-D-D-D.” The Canadiens have five, count ‘em, five unrestricted free agent defensemen (Schneider, Bouillion, Dandenault, Komisarek, and Brisebois). Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik have two years left on their respective deals, but Markov will be 31 at the end of next season, and Hamrlik will be 36. Their prospect system seems short on that specie of player, at least in terms of filling all those potential holes down the road.

19. New York Rangers – David Rundblad, D. Skelleftea HC, SEL (45 games, 0-10-10, 8 PIMs)

Former picks at (19): Lauri Korpikoski (2004), Stefan Cherneski (1997), Bruce Buchanan (1968)

What do the Rangers need?... A good slap. That not generally being the object of the draft (although a lot of Ranger fans might line up for the opportunity to bestow one upon the genius who hung $11.5 million in cap hit for two defensemen – Wade Redden and Michal Roszival – of dubious value around the team’s neck), the Rangers might have to settle for a defenseman who might provide some blue line pop down the road. Despite his numbers, Rundblad is said (at least in the scouting report quoted at NHL.com) that “he has a very good…right-handed shot.”

20. Calgary Flames – Landon Ferarro, RW. Red Deer Rebels, WHL (68 games, 37-18-55, 99 PIMs)

Former picks at (20): Denis Gauthier (1995), Miles Zaharko (1977, w/ Atlanta Flames)

What do the Flames need?... Some polish. Calgary has something of a reputation for hard-nosed play, and there appear to be a number of prospects at forward who can fill that role. What the Flames seem to lack in the longer term is higher-end skill. That’s might be difficult to get as the draft moves into the lower half of the round, but Ferarro reads like a guy who can fit in the Calgary mold, yet still provide a bit of a skill upgrade.

21. Philadelphia Flyers – Robin Lehner, G. Frolunda, SWE-JR (22 games, 3.05, .916)

It doesn’t seem to be a big draft for goaltenders, but there has been only one year in this decade when a goalie wasn’t selected in the first round (2007). Philadelphia, which seems to have a long history of treating goaltenders as if they were a big pile of steaming Cechmanek, needs to address a real shortcoming in their organization. The Flyers do not have a certain NHLer in their system.

22. Vancouver Canucks – Stefan Elliott, D. Saskatoon Blades, WHL (71 games, 16-39-55, 76 PIMs)

Former picks at (22): Curt Fraser (1978), Jeff Bandura (1977)

What do the Canucks need?... It’s the letter that comes between the “C” and the “E,” as in “defence.” Sami Salo and Willie Mitchell will be 35 and 33, respectively, at the end of next season. Mattias Ohlund is an unrestricted free agent. The prospect pool looks deep at forward; at defense, not so much. A lot of mock drafts have Elliott going here. Hey, why not?

23. New Jersey Devils – Calvin DeHaan, D. Oshawa Generals, OHL (68 games, 8-55-63, 40 PIMs)

Former picks at (23): Nicklas Bergfors (2005), Jeff Christian (1988), Ricard Persson, Craig Billington (1984)

What do the Devils need?... Some “O” for the “D.” No Devil defenseman not named “Niedermayer” has scored as many as ten goals in a season since 1994. Yeah, in New Jersey, defensemen play defense. They got a grand total of one goal out of their defensemen in the first round series of the playoffs. Of course, a player picked here isn’t going to solve that problem next year (or the year after that, or the year after that), but the Devils don’t have anyone who would seem to address that issue anywhere in their system, either.

24. Washington Capitals – Jacob Josefson, C. Djurgartens IF Stockholm, SEL (50 games, 5-11-16, 14 PIMs)

Former picks at (24): Errol Rausse (1979)

What do the Caps need?... Something to fill those donut holes. After Nicklas Backstrom, name a center – on the parent roster or a prospect – who immediately comes to mind as a top-two line sort of player three or four years down the road. The candidates are of the “well, maybe” sort, if that (that includes last year’s edition of Swedish center – Anton Gustafsson). Reading a scouting report on Josefson… “He is a very good two-way player. He has a very good responsibility for his defensive duties. He's more a playmaker, a guy who sees the ice really well, creates a lot of scoring chances with his passing skills. He's very good with the stick and very good in traffic because he is an excellent stickhandler. He's a smooth passer with very soft hands”… he sounds like another Swede picked three years ago.

25. Boston Bruins – Chris Kreider. C. Andover, HS-MA (26 games, 33-23-56)

Former picks at (25): Kevyn Adams (1993), Mark Howe (1974)

What do the Bruins need?... “D”…for “depth.” Kreider is almost too good a pick here. A native of Massachusetts, attends Andover, will matriculate to Boston College. And that last part suggests this as something of a high-risk/high-reward pick. Kreider isn’t heading off to BU until the fall of 2010. Is his performance at this level a bit of a mirage? Reading the scouting reports, it seems to be a concern, but not enough of one to suggest that he has anything but a lot of talent that is just undeveloped.

26. New York Islanders – Peter Holland, C. Guelph Storm, OHL (68 games, 28-39-67, 42 PIMs)

Former picks at (26): Zigmund Palffy (1991)

What do the Islanders need?... everything…well, except for a number one center. They just drafted one in John Tavares. Doesn’t mean they still don’t need help at the position.

27. Carolina Hurricanes -- Simon Despres, D. St. John Sea Dogs, QMJHL (66 games, 2-30-32, 74 PIMs)

Former picks at (27): none

What do the Hurricanes need?... binoculars. They need to look a fair way down the road and think about what their blue line might look like 3-5 years from now. Frantisek Kaberle, Niclas Wallin, and Joe Corvo are UFAs after next season (all will at least 33). Dennis Seidenberg is a UFA now. So, after Joni Pitkanen and Anton Babchuk (who they have to re-sign as an RFA), who is in the wings, so to speak? It doesn’t seem a deep prospect pool.

28. Chicago Blackhawks – Carter Ashton, RW. Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL (70 games, 30-20-50, 93 PIMs)

Former picks at (28): Rene Badeau (1982), Steve Ludzik (1980), Tim Trimper (1979), Michael Archambault (1970)

What do the Blackhawks need?... patience. Last year, the Blackhawks picked Kyle Beach, a winger who might have been the biggest of the high-risk/high-reward picks in that draft, given his reputation for volatility. A player like Ashton brings similar size, if not the potential problems. This would be the counterpoint to the longer odds (with potential for bigger payoff) that Beach was last year.

29. Detroit Red Wings – Carl Klingberg, LW. Boras HC/Vastra Frolunda HC (18 games, 6-3-9, 2 PIMs)

Former picks at (29): Niklas Kronwall (2000), Jeff Sharples (1985)

What do the Red Wings need?... not to upset the apple cart. They’ve been a well-oiled machine for a decade or more, so why do anything different? In this case, they’ve done well employing Swedes, and they’ve done well (some might say surprisingly well) employing Swedes who can hold their own physically (Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen).

30. Pittsburgh Penguins – Jordan Caron, RW. Rimouski, QMJHL (56 games, 36-31-67, 66 PIMs)

Former picks at (30): Jim Hamilton (1977), Bernie Luckowich (1972)

What do the Penguins need?... a good swift kick in the… OK, that’s the Caps fan in us talking. The Penguins have lived off the product of epic suckitude in the early part of the decade, the sort of which saw them pick fifth, first, second, first, and second over a five year period ending in 2006. Now, they have to keep it going with picks at the other end of the round. Two years ago, the picked Angelo Esposito at 20, sent him to Atlanta as part of the Marian Hossa deal, then watched Hossa head to Detroit. Last year, they didn’t have a first round pick (again, a product of the Hossa deal). Now, they draft 30th. And they still could use wingers.

And there you have it, the last mocknostication you'll ever need. And, as always, don't use these picks for cash wagering... unless you plan to share the winnings.