Market Anomalies

Pickens Plan Video

2008-07-18T09:05:00.001-06:00

Is the bull back?

2008-07-18T08:29:00.004-06:00

After two days of bullish trading or possibly the largest short squeeze in recent history, the market is looking bullish again. Citi reported a better than expected 2nd quarter loss that will hopefully rally the markets again today.

Energy is a continuing concern among investors although crude has backed off all time highs. Check out the "Pickens Plan" if you are interested in alternative sources particularly wind power.

Thanks Ragan for the lead...

Marketing and Charts

2008-07-14T18:20:00.004-06:00

I am a big fan of Seth Godin and I read his blog religiously. I recommend putting it in your favorites and reading it often. He is a marketing guru who has great ideas for any entrepreneur, business owner, executive or consultant. Every time I leave his blog my mind is spinning with ideas and strategies. This time was no different..

Seth's post on "three laws for great graphs" is a must read. KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid). His three simple rules to follow when making charts to use in a presentation are:

1. One Story
2. No Bar Charts
3. Motion

These rules are on point and should be used by everyone giving a presentation. Read the post and let me know what you think..

Interesting News

2008-07-09T16:13:00.003-06:00

-Google is testing a new application that will provide walking routes available on your computer or cellphone. The current Google maps application provides driving directions that may not be the shortest route for walkers or bikers due to one way streets, parks, and tunnels. Tourists traveling to major cities like New York will benefit the most from this application although Google will add a disclaimer saying "use caution when walking in unfamiliar areas," meaning "don't blame us if you get mugged." See the story here...

- It has been confirmed, Americans are criminals.. According to a report from Futuresouce Consulting one-third of consumers in the US and UK have made a copy of a DVD in last six months. This seems really high, but I found it on the Internet so it must be true. Check out the story here...

- Canadians are pissed that they have to sign a three year contract with Rodgers Communications to purchase a 3G iPhone. Apple is apparently behind the consumer or are mad abooout the bad publicity because they are diverting shipments to the UK meant for Canada and are not selling the overpriced plans at the Apple stores. Check out this story here...

Gaming Stocks

2008-07-09T11:54:00.004-06:00

Vegas has been taking a hit from the slumping economy and the rising gas prices. Weekend gamblers that make the trip from LA are dropping off and vacationers are searching for less expensive alternatives. Airlines are cutting flights and gas prices are getting more expensive everyday. Here are a few stocks to follow if you are thinking about rolling the dice or want a good short..

MGM Mirage (MGM)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Boyd Gaming (BYD)
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

5 Recession Proof Stocks

2008-07-02T09:42:00.002-06:00

The market is officially in the dumps. If you are still long the market here are 5 of my top picks to ride through this slow economy.

1. Coach (COH) - High-end retailers historically do not follow the market into recessionary times. With a P/E under 15 COH looks like a buy at this price. Coach is a staple of high end fashion and should fare well through the next few months.

2. Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) - Producer of natural gas in the US, CHK owns approximately 38,500 producing oil and natural gas wells. High oil prices are driving CHK high and should continue throughout the summer.

3. Nike (NKE) - Nike is a steal at the current price after taking a tumble. Less then impressive growth has put NKE on the hot seat with investors, but aggressive international growth and Olympic exposure should help this staple continue to grow.

4. PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - PepsiCo has continued to impress investors with outstanding growth and increasing market share. International growth along with domestic synergy will allow PEP to continue the impressive growth during a slowing economy.

5. Toyota Motor Co. (TM) - Toyota has continued to take advantage of the green movement. Green companies will prosper this summer as fuel prices continue to rise. I have been following TM for a few months and may pick up a few shares this week.

Shaq Freestyle on Kobe

2008-06-24T07:52:00.002-06:00

Gas Prices and Politics

2008-06-20T16:24:00.002-06:00

While driving home from work today I was listening to a Republican talk show. The topic was, of course, gas prices and the continued climb north. They were making the argument that the Democrats were happy that gas prices were hitting all time highs and putting the squeeze on Americans pocketbooks. This type of rhetoric is very common in a red state like Texas, and this is one of the less asinine viewpoints. I am somewhat neutral in my political views although I tend to lean more liberal. Like most republicans I believe in a free market (at least in theory), but I do not agree in big business getting rich at the cost of society and the environment. Now that you know my viewpoint back to the topic at hand.

The only reason Democrats would be happy that gas prices are increasingly more expensive is this may encourage society to turn to alternative fuel sources that are more environmentally friendly. Everyone should agree that we need to find an alternative fuel source to free ourselves from our dependency on foreign countries. Oil prices are ridicules, but increasing drilling is only a temporary solution that is simply going to delay the inevitable. The inevitable being an alternative fuel source.

It would be a shame if congress decides to lift the ban on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

Back to stocks for a second. I have one picks for each situation. If congress decides to lift the ban, buy some RIG. Here is their business summary from Google finance:

Transocean Inc. (Transocean) is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells. As of February 20, 2008, the Company owned, had partial ownership interests in or operated 139 mobile offshore drilling units. Its fleet included 39 high-specification floaters (ultra-deepwater, deepwater and harsh environment semisubmersibles, and drillships), 29 midwater floaters, 10 high-specification jackups, 57 standard jackups and four other rigs. As of February 20, 2008, the Company also has eight ultra-deepwater floaters contracted for or under construction. The Company’s primary business is to contract these drilling rigs, related equipment and work crews primarily on a day rate basis to drill oil and gas wells. In November 2007, the Company completed its merger transaction with GlobalSantaFe Corporation (GlobalSantaFe).

If congress does not lift the ban and oil prices continue to rise look for some action in the solar industries. My favorite here is FSLR. Here is their business summary from Google finance:

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules using a thin film semiconductor technology. Its solar modules employ a thin layer of cadmium telluride semiconductor material to convert sunlight into electricity. It has long-term solar module supply contracts (the Long Term Supply Contracts) with 12 European project developers and system integrators. Its customers develops, owns and operates solar power plants or sells turnkey solar power plants to end-users that include owners of land, owners of agricultural buildings, owners of commercial warehouses, offices and industrial buildings, public agencies, municipal government authorities, utility companies, and financial investors that desire to own large scale solar power plant projects

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Market Talk

2008-06-20T16:12:00.003-06:00

The markets are collapsing, yet people seem upbeat. I try to discuss economics with just abut everyone I meet. Trying to get a grasp on where we are headed and where we have been. Surprisingly the majority of people I speak to seam optimistic about the economic future of our country. We all know the markets are finicky and everything is cyclical, but we are not playing with monopoly money. I guess a loss is not technically a loss until you sell, but seeing huge unrealized losses in your brokerage account will make even the most experienced investor nervous. I am staying long in my portfolio and am going to try and ride this wave out, but it is very tempting to jump ship when the markets are steadily heading south.

The good news is the markets are closed for a couple of days! So relax and have a drink, we could all use one. Hopefully the markets will turn positive again on Monday.

Bush

2008-06-19T20:38:00.002-06:00

Fake??? Yes, but funny as hell! You can see more here...

Snoop Dog Country Song?

2008-06-19T09:39:00.002-06:00

The market has been in major pain this week with financials leading the way. I have made a few buys on the way down, but I am still very heavy in cash. Trying to stay away from the falling knife. You know things are going crazy when Snoop starts singing country.... If you are a bear congrats, bulls hang tight..

Comic Relief

2008-06-10T21:46:00.002-06:00

I may have found one of the funniest sites on the web! If you have ever worked in a cube, than you will truly appreciate MyLifeInaCube.com... Here is one of my favorites.

Apple Update

2008-06-09T14:01:00.003-06:00

Coming in early July! Apple introduces the new 3G iPhone with minor updates and a much lower price tag. The 8 gig iPhone will sell for $199 and the 16 gig will sell for $299 . That is about $200 less than the current price. The new phone will include a all black back and a flush headset jack. The iPhone will also have GPS which will allow for turn by turn directions.

Apple also announced a new version of Mac OS X that is sure to impress.

The stock took a dip upon the news, but bounced back before the close and is up in after hours trading.

Disclosure: Long AAPL

Romo Shoots 84 @ Torrey Pines

2008-06-07T22:06:00.002-06:00

I like Romo more everyday! Check out the story....

Apple does Vegas!

2008-06-06T13:36:00.002-06:00

A new apple store is being built in Las Vegas that could be the most extravagant apple store ever! The apple insider has the story here...

Brawl!! Red Sox Vs Tampa Bay

2008-06-06T12:59:00.002-06:00

MLB will likely take this down soon, but it is working for now. Have a good weekend!

OBAMA for President!

2008-06-04T22:16:00.002-06:00

Here is Obama's speech last night as he wins the democratic nomination on his way to becoming the president of the United States. What a great speech! Watch for yourself...

No more Hummers?

2008-06-03T07:35:00.003-06:00

GM has announced today that they are going to close 4 truck producing plants, in order to make more small cars. They also said that they will consider selling the Hummer Brand. Bloomberg has a great article here covering the story.

Google Vs. Yahoo!

2008-06-02T13:23:00.004-06:00

Yahoo! has been the standard finance search for as long as I can remember, but a lack of innovation has allowed Google to take over as the top financial site in my opinion. The Google/Yahoo competition is extensive to say the least. They are in direct competition in basically every category and Yahoo has been loosing ground to Google exponentially.

Here are the top 5 reasons I use Google Finance over Yahoo Finance...

1. No Ads... Google Finance is laid out very clean and clear with no ads. Yahoo Finance is covered with a ridicules number of ads, many of which will pop up or slide into your view causing vigorous cursing and yelling.
2. Clean and easy to use charts... Google Finance has great easy to use charts. You do not have to open a separate page to analyze the chart. Take AAPL for example. When you pull up the AAPL page you get the financials across the top with a basic 3 day chart. Simply drag the chart to expand or pick the timeline you wish to view. It works great, try it...
3. Everything is on one page... The financials, blog posts, news, related companies, financials, discussions, events, key stats & ratios, officers & directors, and a brief summary. Very convenient and very clean.
4. News linked charts... This is relatively new to financial sites and is one of my favorite innovations. This makes it very easy to understand the dips and jumps in a stock. Google has it, Yahoo does not.
5. Outside links... Google is the first to admit they can not do it all, so they link to Reuters and Yahoo Finance.

01/20/09

2008-05-23T12:46:00.001-06:00

Have a great weekend!

Belgium Bud?

2008-05-23T09:37:00.004-06:00

Anheuser Busch is up 8% today on news that InBev, a Belgium brewery, is in talks to purchase Busch for a reported $46 billion. A 9 dollar premium for shareholders who were holding the stock before the news was leaked. One report says that InBev would be willing to pay as much as $67 a share for BUD.

A struggling economy paired with rising commodity costs in a mature market has slowed sales growth for BUD recently. Buyouts and consolidations have been popular over the past few years among breweries. SAB and Miller, Molson and Coors, and Carlsberg/Heineken and Newcastle have all made deals in the past few years.

A weak dollar will likely encourage more foreign buyouts of US companies over the next year, but who is next?

Here are some of the best Bud Light commercials ever...

3G iPhone Confirmed

2008-05-20T10:22:00.002-06:00

According to Gizmodo the iPhone launch date has been confirmed for June 9th. Here is the news from Gizmodo:

We all suspected it, but now it is confirmed: someone very, very close to the 3G iPhone launch has told me that Apple will announce their new model at the WWDC Keynote on June 9th. The second-generation iPhone will be available worldwide right after the launch, and not at year's end, as previously thought. The new model will also herald new sales policies in some countries.

In Spain, for example, the 3G iPhone will be available for sale at the June 18th grand opening of Telefonica's megastore—an Apple Store-like shop located in the company's historical building in Madrid's Gran Vía— with nationwide availability the next day or after a few hours. The other European countries with iPhone availability will have similar launch schedules.

According to another source involved in the launch, the 3G iPhone will no longer be available at a fixed price point—at least in some countries, and its launch will also bring new sales policies, although these have not been completely specified yet.

The move is a logical step, since the iPhone has clearly solidified its position as the cellphone to beat during the last 12 months, and companies in the cutthroat European cellphone market need to use it as an incentive to capture clients aggressively.

This most probably means the new 3G iPhone will be integrated in the usual marketing systems of carriers, with point-based trade-ups, discounts for carrier switchers and other service-based subvention packages.

Apple store in Boston

2008-05-14T14:43:00.002-06:00

New Apple store in Boston looks pretty amazing. I may have to take a pilgrimage. Check out some pictures here..

HP to buy EDS

2008-05-13T09:46:00.002-06:00

Hewlett Packard (HP) announced today (leaked out yesterday afternoon) that they have struck a deal to purchase Electronic Data Systems (EDS) for 13.9 billion to strength it's service business. Here are details:

The companies' collective services businesses had combined revenue of more than $38 billion and 210,000 employees in fiscal 2007. The deal will more than double HP's services revenue, which accounted for $16.6 billion of the company's $104 billion in revenue in fiscal 2007.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based HP (NYSE: HPQ) is buying EDS for $25 per share, which EDS stockholders will receive for each share of common stock they hold at the closing of the merger, expected in the second half of this calendar year.

HP (NYSE: HPQ) said it intends to establish a new business group called EDS- an HP company, which will be based at EDS's existing headquarters in Plano, Texas. EDS Chairman, President and CEO Ronald Rittenmeyer will continue to lead EDS's operations following the deal's closing. EDS is a provider of consulting and technology outsourcing services.

So is this a good deal for shareholders? It depends who you are holding. EDS shareholders are probably getting the better deal, since the company has been pretty stagnate in a growing industry. Here is the prior year chart for EDS (it is pretty ugly). If HP has the corporate leadership to turn around the struggling service company than HP shareholders may see some benefit down the road.

Story of the Day

2008-05-12T16:01:00.002-06:00

This is almost unbelievable, but hilarious nonetheless. Thanks to Skeeter for the link.. I think it is fitting based on today's earlier post.

A 13 year old from Texas who stole his Dad's credit card and ordered two hookers from an escort agency, has today been convicted of fraud and given a three year community order.

Ralph Hardy, a 13 year old from Newark, Texas confessed to ordering an extra credit card from his father's existing credit card company, and took his friends on a $30,000 spending spree, culminating in playing "Halo" on an Xbox with a couple of hookers in a Texas motel.

The credit card company involved said it was regular practice to send extra credit cards out as long as all security questions are answered.

The escort girls who were released without charge, told the arresting officers something was up when the kids said they would rather play Xbox than get down to business.

Police said they were alerted to the motel by a concerned delivery clerk, whom after delivering supplies of Dr Pepper, Fritos and Oreos had been asked by the kids where they could score some chicks and were willing to pay. They explained they had just made a big score at a "World of Warcraft" tournament and wanted to get some relaxation. On noting the boys age the delivery clerk informed the authorities.

When police arrived at the motel they found $3,000 in cash, numerous electronic gadgets, an Xbox video console with numerous games, and the two local escort girls.

Ralph had reportedly told police that his father wouldn't mind, as it was his birthday last week and he had forgot to get him a present. The father, a lawyer said he had been too busy, but would take him on a surprise trip to Disneyland instead.

Asked why he ordered two escorts, Ralph said he thought it was the thing to do when you win a "World of Warcraft" tournament. They told the suspicious working girls they were people of restricted growth working with a traveling circus, and as State law does not allow those with disabilities to be discriminated against they had no right to refuse them.

The $1,000 a night girls sensing something up played "Halo" on the Xbox with the kids, instead of selling their sexual services.

Ralph's ambition is to one day become a politician.