The Many Rantings of John

The 25 Most Quotable Quotes of 2007

2008-02-02T07:54:00.000-08:00

Here they are, after careful consideration (and probably more work than I intended), I have assembled the 25 Best Quotes of 2007:

25. "I can't tell dreams from truth." -Marketa Irglova, speaking what we all feel, in Once

24. “Spider-Pig, Spider-Pig. / Does whatever a Spider-Pig does. / Can he swing / from a web? / No he *can't*, / He's a pig. / Look out! / He is the Spider-Pig!” -Homer Simpson with America's newest icon in The Simpsons Movie

23. "“Yep. I'm very passionate about Italian food. In fact, um, I'm in love with Italian food.” -Jim Halpert, making a metaphor of his love for Pam, on The Office

22. "“Over the last week, I have listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.” -Hillary Rodham Clinton, getting her groove back in The Granite State

21. "“I can't keep doing this on my own with these... people.” -Daniel Day-Lewis, losing his humanity in There Will Be Blood

20. "“My point is...a penis when seen in the right context is the most wonderful sight for a woman. But when seen in the wrong context it's like a monster movie.” -Michael Scott, appreciating women, in The Office

19. "“My money is on a Freudian pizza.” -My best friend, trying to explain why I always have weird dreams

18. "“When someone gives you odds like 10,000 to 1, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I'm gonna be a very rich dude.” -Kevin Malone, describing one of the vortexes of my personal hell, in The Office

17. "“I gave them their happiness.” -Vanessa Redgrave, making our jaws drop, in Atonement

16. "It's not enough you love blow and I love puff." -Amy Winehouse, crooning a drug reference I don't understand, in "Back to Black"

15. "Because deep down, you know you deserve to be punished, don't you Mr. Potter?" -Imelda Staunton, finding the devil wears pink chiffon, in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

14. “Hello, I'm Tom Hanks. The US Government has lost its credibility so it's borrowing some of mine.” -Tom Hanks, brilliantly lampooning on at least five different levels, in The Simpsons Movie

13. “I love you. I'll wait for you. Come back. Come back to me.” -Keira Knightley, making us swoon, in Atonement

12. "What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?” -Javier Bardem, making us bite our lips, in No Country for Old Men

11. “You’re not making the rules, you used to when you did this, you don’t do this anymore, elections have consequences.” -Barbara Boxer knocking out Jim Inhofe as the CHAIR of the Environment and Public Works Committee

10. “Just imagine the fan fiction.” -J.K. Rowling, outing Albus Dumbledore

9. “I'm not suprised. Pam is the office mattress.” -Angela Martin, spouting her always hilarious hypocrisy, on The Office

8. “I saw “Wedding Crashers” accidentally. I bought a ticket for “Grizzly Man” and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Cause that’s the thing about bear attacks…they come when you least expect it.” -Dwight Schrute, sharing his wisdom, on The Office

7. “Could you double-check the envelope?” -Martin Scorsese, finally winning his Oscar

6. “Once I'm officially regional manager, my first order of business will be to demote Jim Halpert. So I will need a new number two. My ideal choice? Jack Bauer. But he is unavailable. Fictional. And overqualified.” -Dwight Schrute, describing his perfect Assistant to the Regional Manager, on The Office

5. “She’s Alexis, big as Texas, she knows what it’s like to be both sexes.” -Kenny, rapping rhapsodic, about his boss, in Ugly Betty

4. “We only said goodbye with words.” -Amy Winehouse, shedding her sorrow in song, in "Back to Black"

3. "“And my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your milkshake, I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!” -Daniel Day-Lewis, finally falling over the edge, in There Will Be Blood

2. "You can't stop what's coming.” -No Country for Old Men giving Tommy Lee Jones (and all of us), a universal truth.

1. “The scar had not pained Harry for nineteen years. All was well.” -J.K. Rowling, closing the door, in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Heath Ledger (1979-2008)

2008-01-22T16:07:00.000-08:00

"There ain't never enough time, never enough..."

Remember to Dream

2008-01-10T19:08:00.000-08:00

While growing up, I was often one for dreaming-fancifully staring out the windows and staring off into space, wondering what the world beyond my own quaint little town was like. Oftentimes, these daydreams occurred whilst staring at the pages of a book or a magazine, and one in particular, a Life magazine about exploration and man’s quest to become one with nature, would surely jut me into the farthest reaches of space and sea, of jungle and mountain.

These images are flying forward today with the death of Sir Edmund Hillary. Truth be told, I knew little about Sir Edmund outside of his fateful journey one half-century ago. He was a politician but not a particularly successful one (John Glenn would surely beat him in that arena), and a Knight of the Garter (possibly Britain’s highest honor). But to know Hillary was to know his accomplishment, and few in the 20th Century could boast such a feat as to reach for the heavens on earth, or at least the “nearest thing to heaven” to quote Deborah Kerr.

One has to wonder, with the dwindling number of explorers in the world, where the next generation will come from, and where will they go? Where are the Edmund Hillary's, the Neil Armstrong's and John Glenn's, the Thor Heyerdahl's and Jacques Cousteau's? Where are those individuals who will reach into the depths of nature and not try to conquer it, but instead shoot to solve its mysteries? In this age of digital, well, everything, and the stress on the small, do the world’s citizens still want to reach for the stars? I pray that the imagination still thirsts for the grand and quixotic, and I’d like to think that this generation of men and women, those who discovered the world (and beyond) anew in the 1940s-1960s, are not the last to want to go into the depths of the natural unknown.

So tonight, before you head into the cozy enigmas of the unconscious, take a look at the world surrounding you, whether it be the stars in the heavens or the ground below you (or, in my case, the heaps of snow blocking the street), and take a long hard look at the beauty of nature, perhaps even allow yourself to imagine yourself, to wonder and think and pretend. After all, Everest, the Poles, the Moon: they too just began as dreams.

Supporting Actress Smackdown 1990

2007-09-29T20:48:00.001-07:00

For those of you who love the wonders of actressing on the edges, Stinkylulu's Supporting Actress Smackdowns need no introduction. This month, Stinkylulu tackled the lovely ladies of 1990, and yours truly is one the panelists. Make sure to head over there and discuss Oda Mae Brown, Marietta Fortune, Karen Hill, Myra Langtry, and Stands With a Fist (seriously, has there ever been such variety in the names of the supporting ladies?)

I, who have to admit I wasn't greatly impressed with the film output of 1990, will readily proclaim that my favorite of the ladies was Ms. Annette Bening, turning in one of her (to date) three Oscar-nominated performances. Bening's delicious con artistl in The Grifters was a true delight, and a nice throwback to the supporting actresses who have populated the film noir genre (my personal favorite film genre). When I first started looking into Bening's perf, I kind of figured that noir, like most genre pieces, would have largely been ignored in this category. Boy was I wrong! Roles as diverse as Angela Lansbury's floozy maid in Gaslight to Cathy Moriarty's childlike bride in Raging Bull have been recognized by the little golden guy. Winners, as Bening illustrates, are far less common; only Claire Trevor's lush mistress in Key Largo has come out on top of the category.

And yet, as any Oscar watcher knows, nitpicking must ensue when discussing Oscar's rather fickle choices. And when it comes to film noir supporting actresses, Oscar's dismissal of Marlene Dietrich in Touch of Evil was one of his biggest mistakes. Granted, 1958 was a year filled with snub miscalculations (Jimmy Stewart and Orson Welles were not included amongst the Best Actor lineup), but Dietrich's snub is particularly grating because she does so much with so little screentime. She can't be onscreen for more than ten minutes, but she flies to mind when I think about the film. The ladies of The Grifters (particularly Anjelica Huston) seem to have borrowed a bit from the world-weary Tanya; each has a history that is alluded to in the film more than actually viewed, leaving the plot largely in the hands of the male protagonists. Dietrich's whisky-worn vocal timbre indents each line-reading, and her eyes and eyebrow raises with Welles show that she's the only true equal to Hank Quinlan in the film. While Charlton Heston may be able to one-up Quinlan due to circumstance, Dietrich's Tanya is his equal, and therefore her place at the stunning conclusion of the tale seems fitting.

Unlike Touch of Evil, Bening's Myra is not the equal to Huston's Lilly Dillon, but she is definitely her only challenge in the film. The real genius to Bening's performance is that one is never quite sure how much this woman is capable of; whilst we know that Huston has a lot of tricks up her sleave, the enigmatic, seemingly bubbleheaded Myra doesn't show her cards, leaving the audience and her co-grifters guessing what she would do for success. Sometimes this is a bit problematic (at times, I wonder if even Bening herself knew Myra's intentions), but as a whole this is a wildly entertaining performance, and a grand counterpart to Huston's epic turn.

I personally would have handed both Dietrich and Bening Oscars in their respective years, but what about you? Head over to the Smackdown and voice your opinions on the actresses of 1990's edges!

TV's Trek to the Big Screen

2007-09-24T19:10:00.001-07:00

Sex and the City is one of those shows that somehow managed to be as beloved in my world as the movies that I obsess about on an almost second-by-second basis. I think it might be the whole saga of the show-seriously, the soap operatics of this show on paper must seem a tad bit obscene, and yet with characters as brave and strong as Carrie, Miranda, Charlotte, and Samantha to fall in love with, everything seems to give over to a believable reality. Countless hours I have spent curled up with these fabulous ladies, obsessing over which one of them I'm most like (Charlotte, to the point where people I hardly know have insinuated I have a bit of Ms. York in me) to the countless string of Jimmy Choos the ladies click-clacked all up and down Lex. And yet, their recent movie news has got me thinking: which of my other favorite television series needs to get itself to the big screen?

Some of the movies that I would list have already (successfully) made their ways to the big screen (South Park and The Simpsons). Almost certainly the one that I most long for onscreen, and yet wouldn't happen in a million years, would be having my most beloved of teenage shows, Ally McBeal, return to the screen. I know that Calista Flockhart is on another hit television series on ABC (Brothers & Sisters, and yes, you should be watching it), Jane Krakowski is likely hoofing it up on Broadway, and Courtney Thorne-Smith is demeaning her worn, but sharp personality opposite Jim Belushi, but really, it's time these actors lawyered up and gave me what I've been waiting years and years for-a return to the courtroom. Hell, I'd settle for simply an office meeting and a show tunes medley down at the bar (with dancing baby in tow). Alas, David E. Kelley's best series won't be seeing the big screen anytime soon, so can I at least send out a plea-release the DVD's in a Region 1 version! I can't stand my lack of Ally anymore!

If Ally seems a pipe dream, perhaps a more believable fantasy would be the recently offed series Gilmore Girls coming back to me. Yes, yes, I know that it just went off the air, but I'm still in denial that I won't be able to see my Lorelai and Rory again. I'm specifically keeping my Tuesday nights busy at the moment, so as to not notice that my girls are no longer traipsing to town meetings and having disfunctional love lives. The movie could perhaps have Luke & Lorelai once again preparing for the wedding, with Emily barging in and Rory finally making a decision between Jess, Dean, and Logan. CW, you owe me this-the fact that you made me say goodbye to my girls in a season without its genius creator Amy Sherman-Palladino is unforgivable; this would make everything right.

What about you? Which TV shows do you want to see on the big screen?

William Wyler: A Director of Few Words

2007-09-23T14:36:00.000-07:00

I've been thoroughly been enjoying the many entries in the William Wyler blog-a-thon that Goatdog has so graciously put together, so I thought that I would add my two cents on one of Hollywood's most accomplished auteurs.
To think of William Wyler, one will inevitably think of actors, and the myriad of performers he has left his brand upon. Picking one of them seemed a Herculean task-how does one pick between the star-is-born (both on-and-off-screen) antics of Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl, the crushed naivety of Olivia de Havilland in The Heiress, the mannered perfection of Greer Garson’s Mrs. Miniver, Audrey’s joyous vacation in Roman Holiday or the wounded veterans of The Best Years of Our Lives? I couldn’t possibly pick between the bunch, but one thing struck me about each of these films when I first thought about them. The wordless, haunting and effective scenes that first came to mind when I thought about the movies; Wyler, more than hardly any other mainstream director, knew the power and effectiveness of a quiet moment.
Recall, perhaps The Best Years of Our Lives. Is there anything in Myrna Loy or Fredric March’s performances that is as telling as those haunting glances they give each other showing a sense of lost intimacy and fear that it has forever been lost in a blood-washed field across the ocean? Or perhaps Cathy O’Donnell’s mingled looks of compete adoration and desperation as she undresses the love of her life?
Best Years may in fact be Wyler’s most emotional film (I mean that as a high compliment), but each of his films have that moment where the heart soars or crumbles or thumps, and each of these scenes are largely wordless. Olivia de Havilland’s horrifying ascent up the stairs (and obvious descent into a black depression she will never retreat from) is all about her determined, moon pie eyes and strong lower lip. Greer Garson’s steely face as she’s being robbed is a harried, steely pierce that shows the audience that she’ll be able to survive anything, even as she’s being held captive.
Wyler’s characters also tell their heartbreak with little more than a curt sentence or fake smile. Streisand’s stone-faced gazes at her Nicky show that she knows that she’ll never be this happy again, and it could so easily slip away. Laurence Olivier captures the eternally hungry character of Wuthering Heights, exhibiting his complete misguided devotion to Catherine with hardly a word, but more a vengeful array of huffs and darting eyes.
To conclude this laundry list of moments, I should probably present my favorite, that being the final scene of Roman Holiday. Wyler’s script is largely relegated to anonymous members of the press corps, coming to grab a last moment with Princess Audrey before she leaves behind Rome, and yet Wyler spends most of his camera time balancing between the delicate beauty of Audrey Hepburn and the chiseled beauty of Gregory Peck. Hepburn’s face shifts only slightly through the scene, and yet the audience is able to experience a gamut of her emotions, ranging from confusion at first to betrayal to adoration and finally true heartbreak. As Audrey Hepburn turns around and gives her one true love a gaze, her heart broken, all that she can do is smile a wide grin, covering up the internal tears. A less capable director would have shown the beginnings of tears, but Wyler doesn’t saturate the scene, instead letting it simmer. He’s already hit every emotional button, now all that is left is to fade to black. It’s a near flawless moment from a director who more than once flirted with silent perfection.

Ask and ye shall receive...

2007-09-14T06:12:00.001-07:00

Apparently, this has turned into the magical wishing blog. I asked last week asked for Jeanne Shaeen and Mark Warner to both run for the U.S. Senate, and lo and behold, within the last 24 hours both Mark Warner and Jeanne Shaheen have announced their intentions for the U.S. Senate, thus insuring the Democrats have an incredibly good year in the Senate in 2008. And, since the blog fairies are now granting me my wishes here, I'd like an Oscar for Kate Winslet, an Emmy for Kelly Bishop, Al Gore to retroactively win the 2000 Presidential Election, and possibly a pony.

Love at the Movies: A Guessing Game

2007-09-13T07:15:00.000-07:00

The fifty most romantic lines from my fifty favorite movie romances-do you know where they're from?

1. "We'll always have Paris."
2. "Of course, you idiot. I always wear it; I've always worn it; I've always loved you."
3. "I'll never let go Jack, I will never let go."
4. "I wish I knew how to quit you."
5. "No, I only know that I love you."
6. "I'll tell you one thing, Fred, darling... I'd marry you for your money in a minute."
7. "Tale old as time, true as it can be, barely even friends, then somebody bends, unexpectedly."
8. "Your girl is lovely Hubbell."
9. "Let's never come here again because it will never be as much fun."
10. "My husband and son are on that train. I want to get on that train. Did you hear me? I want to get on that train."
11. "I'll give you the moon, Mary."
12. "Rome! By all means, Rome. I will cherish my visit here in memory as long as I live."
13. "This is a story about...love."
14. "It was the nearest thing to heaven."
15. "Love is too weak a word for what I feel - I luuurve you, you know, I loave you, I luff you."
16. "I still sometimes dream that I'm the mother of your children."
17. "Well, first of all, the two hundred pairs of eyes aren't focused on me. They're focused on you. And the answers are Sydney Ellen Wade, and because she said yes."
18. "I've already wasted my whole life. I want to tell you with my last breath that I have always loved you. I would rather be a ghost, drifting by your side as a condemned soul, than enter heaven without you. Because of your love, I will never be a lonely spirit."
19. "I went from being all alone to being a fiancee, a daughter a granddaughter, a sister and a friend."
20. "My heart is, and always will be, yours."
21. "And don't forget, I'm also just a girl, standing in front of a boy, asking him to love her."
22. "Take me with you, Peter. Take me to your island. I want to do all those things you talked about."
23. "Edelweiss, edelweiss, every morning you greet me; small and white, clean and bright, you look happy to meet me."
24. "Oh Scottie, don't let me go."
25. "And would you dare to say, 'let's do the same as they.' I would, would you?"
26. "The most beautiful sound I ever heard-Maria, Maria, Maria."
27. "Oh Dexter, I'll be yar now, I promise to be yar."
28. "You're my knight in shining armor, don't forget it. You're going to get back on that horse and I'm going to be right behind you, holding on tight and away we're going to go, go, go!"
29. "I've grown accustomed to her face."
30. "Mrs. Robinson, you're trying to seduce me."
31. "Longing. Longing for a wave of love that would stir in me. That's what makes me clumsy. The absence of pleasure. Desire for love. Desire to love."
32. "How could I have known that murder could sometimes smell like honeysuckle?"
33. "I sacrificed three years for you. How could you love him after only three days?"
34. "Oh Jerry, let's not ask for the moon; we have the stars."
35. "Some day, they'll go down together, they'll bury them side by side, to a few, it'll be grief, to the law, a relief, but it's death for Bonnie and Clyde."
36. "Say it again, it keeps me awake." "I love you."
37. "He smashed all the lightbulbs with the heel of my slipper." "And you let him? Didn't run, didn't scream?" "Actually, I was sorta thrilled by it."
38. "Meet me in Montauk."
39. "I'd like to see you with your pants off, Mr. Reed."
40. "This is the night, it's a beautiful night, and they call it belle notte."
41. "Perhaps he knew, as I did not, that the Earth was made round so that we would not see too far down the road."
42. "The moon is reaching for me."
43. "It was like coming home, only to no home I'd ever known. I was just taking her hand to help her out of a car and I knew. It was like... magic."
44. "Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again."
45. "Charlie, that's a nice name."
46. "I just want to find a fish who isn't afraid of my dark chocolate layer... and of course she'd have to love my cookie too."
47. "Now it isn't that I don't like you, Susan, because, after all, in moments of quiet, I'm strangely drawn toward you, but - well, there haven't been any quiet moments."
48. "Can you see now?" "Yes, I can see now."
49. "No I despise you myself, for allowing myself to love you once."
50. "This is not life, Will. It is a stolen season."

How many can you name? And which lines/films should have made the list?

Jane Wyman, 1914-2007

2007-09-10T15:48:00.000-07:00

Apparently death comes in threes, or so the adage goes, as one of those last remaining greats of Hollywood's Golden Age has passed away. Jane Wyman, who passed away today at the age of 93, was possibly best known for two non-movie related items, first being her marriage to future President Ronald Reagan and the second would be her stint on Falcon Crest. However, her film career was easily enough to distinguish her on her own. My first filmic date with Ms. Wyman was in Pollyanna, as Aunt Polly, and then as the girlfriend role in The Lost Weekend. Wyman would receive four Academy Award nominations, for The Yearling, Johnny Belinda, The Blue Veil, and Magnificent Obsession. If you want to get involved with her filmography, those four would be a great way to start. And of course, she is also extremely well-known for her wry and clever Oscar speech, where, after winning for playing a deaf-mute in Johnny Belinda, "I won this award for keeping my mouth shut, so I think I'll do it again now." If only today's actresses could be so clever. So, RIP to Angela Channing, Aunt Polly, Orry Baxter, and Belinda McDonald-you will be missed.

Oh, and in a plea to all of my favorite celebrities, keep eating your vegetables. This has been an awful summer for my favorite entertainers passing away.

Time for a Senate Update

2007-09-09T06:03:00.000-07:00

It's been a while since I've ranked the 2008 races for the Senate, so here are some updates on the five most competitive seats (the number one seat is the one most likely to switch at this point).
1. Virginia: Republican Sen. John Warner's (Liz Taylor's ex for all those people who read this blog for the film content) recent retirement was far more damaging to the Republicans than the entire Larry Craig and Thomas Ravenel scandals combined. Warner, probably the most beloved senator amongst his fellow senators, easily held this seat for the Republicans, and would have again in 2008. However, with his retirement, Gov. Mark Warner, the popular former Democratic governor, has been making heavy hints that he will run, and as the most popular politician in the state (his approval ratings when he left office were over 70 percent), he will be damn near impossible to beat. Warner is popular enough that his support and his investment in his own state party have led to Democrats holding the governor's mansion and winning a Senate seat in 2006. To compound that, Republicans appear to be headed toward a bitter primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. And, proving that the GOP is in truly dire straits, Davis's House seat is also likely to head to the Democrats as well.

2. Colorado: It's been months since Sen. Allard has retired, and the candidates are now set, and as is traditional of 2007, it seems as if it's bad news for the Republicans. The Democrats have received their first choice, Rep. Mark Udall, whereas the Republicans are stuck with their primary loser in 2004, Rep. Bob Schaffer. Both of them are solidly liberal and conservative, respectively, which in traditional Colorado would mean that Schaffer would be headed toward a win, but the recent trend toward the blue that Colorado has been doing means that Udall should have an edge (particularly if the presidential candidate targets Colorado, which he/she most certainly will). This should be tight, but right now it appears as if the Democrats have a real edge.

3. New Hampshire: This seat could very easily skate up to Number 1 or 2 in the next month should the Democrats manage to get their dream candidate, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen has been toying around with running for months, and while she seems like she'll get in, her dragging her feet up until this point has Democrats nervous. Should she run, she could very easily beat one-term Republican Sen. John Sununu; she's been defeating him by twenty points at the polls and New Hampshire has had the sharpest turn blue in the last few years of any state in the country. If Shaheen doesn't enter, the Democrats could still win this with either Mayor Steve Marchand or Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett, but it will be much tougher and divert attention from races listed below.

4. Minnesota: This race will be decided more in the Democratic Primary than in the general election. Norm Coleman has to be sitting at home and praying that the Democrats nominate comedian Al Franken. Should they do this, one has to assume that first-term Sen. Coleman has an edge over the comedian, especially considering that Minnesotans have "celebrity fatigue" due to the horrible tenure of Gov. Jesse Ventura. However, if millionaire attorney Mike Ciresi is the nominee, the Democrats will probably have the edge, particularly since this is a presidential election and Minnesota has the longest current run of picking Democrats for the White House (every single D since 1972).

5. Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith is the last remaining Republican West Coast senator, since Slade Gorton lost in 2000. Smith had somewhat of a pass in 2002, but in a presidential year, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley should be able to get the money to run competitively here, particularly since DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been fundraising something fierce. Smith would in a normal year have a distinct edge here, but the combination of a strong Democratic climate, plus the Democrats possibly having easy wins in Virginia and New Hampshire (particularly if they tie up things early and they have money to pour into this race) means that this could very much be a tossup.

6. Nebraska: This was the big, bad news of the weekend for the GOP. Two-term Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) announced that he would be retiring, thus setting up a free-for-all in the typically Republican Cornhusker State. Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the frontrunner, on the condition that former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns gets into the race (though that could cause Johanns to explain his participation in the Bush administration). The Democrats wouldn't normally have a shot, but former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey, a beloved icon of Nebraska politics, is considering a run for this seat, and that would automatically make him the frontrunner. Should he run (Kerrey's a maverick-there's no way to tell if he'll actually get in), he'll become the frontrunner for the seat, and thus giving the Democrats another seat that they could fairly safely hold. If Kerrey isn't in the race, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb will be the nominee.

7. Louisiana: The first (and only) Democratic seat on this list, Sen. Mary Landrieu has been the GOP's number one target for the entire duration of this cycle. However, it would be one thing if Landrieu was competing Rep. Richard Baker or Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, but instead there is no challenger announced against Sen. Landrieu. State Treasurer John Kennedy, who just recently joined the Republican Party, could be the candidate to take on Landrieu, but he will face flip-flopping charges, particularly since he was a left-of-the-middle Democrat. Additionally, Kennedy could face a primary challenger from a more conservative Republican. All-the-while, Landrieu is stockpiling campaign funds a plenty, and, as the Republicans' only target, she'll be getting a lot of support from her fellow Democratic incumbents.

8. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is a two-term incumbent with incredibly high approval ratings. In a normal election, she wouldn't be anywhere near this list. However, she is a Republican in a state that hasn't gone for a Republican for president since 1988; the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, particularly with money from the DSCC being shovelled here, MN, and OR all means that Sen. Collins will be in for a tough reelection. This is particularly true since the Democrats have recruited their number one choice for the seat, Rep. Tom Allen. If the climate continues, Allen could take this in an upset, but Collins is the most formidable of the four blue-state GOP senators.

9. Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens is a legend in Alaska, and hasn't had a tough election since 1968, but his current FBI probe has been costing him in both loyalty and and in his invincibility. It seems as if he might be getting a primary challenge from a myriad of challengers, though former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman or St. Sen. John Binkley both appear to be the highest profile challengers. Even if Sen. Stevens makes it through the primary, there is still Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), son of former Rep. Nick Begich, who is the toughest potential Democratic challenger that Stevens has ever had.

10. North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole had one of the worst tenures as the NRSC Chairs in recent memory, and is noted as one of the worst campaigners in the Senate (note her horrid candidacy for president in 2000). Luckily for her, she is from a fairly conservative state, particularly because she has been one of Bush's biggest supporters. However, since her SurveyUSA polls are teetering in the low 50's and polls have shown her before 50 percent against two state legislators (St. Sen. Kay Hagan and St. Rep. Grier Martin), one has to assume that this is definitely on the Democrats to watch list.

States also considered for this list: South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson's Democratic label could be a problem in the conservative Mount Rushmore State, Idaho, where Sen. Larry Craig's recent scandal could have an effect on the race, and Oklahoma, where St. Sen. Andrew Rice will be hoping to turn Jim Inhofe into the next Jim Bunning/Conrad Burns.

Madeleine L'Engle Finds Her Wrinkle in Time

2007-09-09T05:52:00.001-07:00

Growing up, I was not that into children's literature. I was all obsessed with taking on those classics of literature with a capital L; Dickens, Austen, and the Brontes were a mainstay on my bookshelf. So, during my junior year, I decided to investigate all of the classics of children's literature, and bar none, one of my favorites were the books of Madeleine L'Engle. A Wrinkle in Time, A Wiind in the Door, A Swiftly Tilting Planet, Many Waters, and An Acceptable Time, all of the books of the Time Quintet, are marvelously in-depth works of literature for any age, and well worth a trip to your local library or B&N. The author, Madeleine L'Engle, passed away on September 6th (not a good summer for entertainers I love), and with this, she has left a gaping hole in the world of letters.

A Plea to Jeanne and Mark

2007-09-06T20:38:00.000-07:00

Dear Jeanne and Mark:

I know that you both have done wonderful things for your states. You have served with distinction, and were both excellent governors. Ms. Shaheen, you are a master campaigner, and did wonders for the Gore & Kerry campaigns. Mr. Warner, you have managed to almost single-handedly revive the flailing Virginia Democratic Party and given the Dems a governor's mansion and a Senate seat. Now, I'm going to ask you both for one more favor. Please, oh please, run for the U.S. Senate seats in your states. The country needs you-the Democrats currently have a razor thin margin in the Senate that basically depends on how Joe Lieberman feels that week. The education, environment, and well-being of the country could hinge on whether or not you continue your excellent service to the country. You both would be superb senators, and I, along with the rest of the Democratic community, am begging you to run for these seats.

Much love and hope to see you at the ballot box,
John

RIP to a Legend

2007-09-05T23:14:00.000-07:00

The world has lost one of its greatest artists, and one of the finest singers of all-time (and one of my personal favorites). My love affair with opera made me want to investigate all sorts of opera stars, but there was a soft spot for the one whose voice made me want to open my own in hopes that I could produce the heaven that he was bringing to my ears. When the King of the High C's hit his signature note, I would collapse in amazement and imagined this must be what that angel chorus would sound like. Alas, I couldn't ever reach the beautiful notes that the master could hit, but that didn't stop me from constantly listening to him. He costars were varied and consisted of everyone from Joan Sutherland to Barry White, but most importantly, he sang beautifully opposite his fellow tenors Jose Carreras and Placido Domingo. Luciano Pavarotti, who died on September 6, 2007, was and is one of the finest entertainers in the history of the medium of opera, and I will sorely miss him.

Please, whether you're a devoted fan or new to Pavarotti or the world of opera, please investigate some of these links-if it's your first or 1000th time hearing them, they still have a magic that is unsurpassed. There's of course Ave Maria, La Donna e Mobile, a performance of the Norma Trio in two parts with the equally glorious Dame Joan Sutherland and Marilyn Horne, a Three Tenors rendition of You'll Never Walk Alone, and not one, but two versions of Nessun Dorma.

Happy Birthday Ingrid Bergman!

2007-08-29T12:35:00.000-07:00

Growing up, I was always a little jealous of my dad for being born on August 29th. Me, the only cool person born on my birthday was Harmon Killebrew (and I wasn't really into baseball). But my dad, he shared a birthday with none other than one of the greatest actresses of ALL-TIME, the lovely and beautiful Ms. Ingrid Bergman. Bergman may not have had the bravado of Bette Davis, the sauciness of Kate Hepburn, or the pixieish Hepburn, but she was a steady, lovely force in all of her films, and is one of the most determined, introverted actors I've ever seen.Here are five other facts about myself and my longtime love of Ms. Ingrid Bergman:

1. Ingrid Bergman is currently ranked fourth in my list of favorite female actors (outranked by only the Hepburns and Meryl).

2. Bergman gives my favorite performance in my favorite film, Casablanca.

3. Ingrid was not related to Ingmar Bergman, which I thought when I was growing up, though they did a film together called Autumn Sonata; it is the most glaring omission in my Ingrid viewings.

4. When asked about who is the best-lookiing actress in all of film history, I always say that Rita Hayworth was the sexiest, and Ingrid Bergman was the most beautiful.

5. Bergman, though one of the most-honored actors in all of film history at the Oscars, was not even nominated for what I consider her finest performances-that of the tortured and resilient Ilsa Lund in Casablanca and the persecuted Alicia Huberman in Notorious.

Laura, My Love

2007-08-15T13:38:00.000-07:00

There are a few things that I do on a daily basis. Shower, check my email, utter the phrase "Oscar-winning." You know, the usual. And, of course, there is nare a day where I don't think about one of my all-time favorite movies, the one to the left. Laura is one of the finest things that I have ever had the pleasure at viewing (cinematic or otherwise). Simply put, I don't think there is a movie that I am in love with more than Laura. Casablanca is my favorite, The English Patient is the one I'm most passionate about, but I long for Laura. The mystery, the wit, the stylish direction and production, I can't get enough. It's the best film that Alfred Hitchcock never directed. And that cast, from the smoky Gene Tierney to the lugheaded Vincent Price to the "neanderthal" Dana Andrews to the stony Judith Anderson to the monument to verbal venom, Clifton Webb, there's a sumptuous feast of thespian antics in this film. Simply mentioning this movie puts me into a trance-I'll just sigh, go off into my beautiful Preminger world, with a whisper of, "Laura."

And, though Oscar never seems to get these things right, the fact that he had both Laura and Double Indemnity to give a trophy for in 1944, and yet it was Going My Way that swept the trophies still irks me.

The Worst of the Best

2007-08-09T07:41:00.000-07:00

I remember the very first Best Picture nominee that I ever had the privilege to see. It was Seven Brides for Seven Brothers, and I fell in love with it, watching it in my living room. Since, then I have explored many, many, many different films that Oscar seemed to flirt with, and this morning, after catching my favorite director's (Mr. Orson Welles) take on one of my favorite novels (The Magnificent Ambersons), I now can boast of seeing my 200th Best Picture nominee.

This journey has taken me on some wild adventures, from a bar in Morocco to a falling castle called Xanadu; from the windswept deserts of Arabia to the snow-covered peaks of Brokeback Mountain (and everywhere in between), and many of my favorite films managed to be shortlisted by Oscar (indeed, I recently noticed that my personal Top 10 favorite movies were all recognized by the Gold Man himself).

However, on this journey, Oscar has not always held up his end of the bargain by giving me the "best." Instead of going through the ten times Oscar most got it right in honor of this special day, I've decided to take him to task a wee bit for the following ten films. These are, in my opinion, the worst films that have been nominated for Best Picture that I have seen (hopefully the next 250 or so will have nothing in common with them). Before I start, honorable mentions should go out to Gladiator and Doctor Doolittle, who just missed this list.

10. Ghost (1990)
Unlike the atrocious doctor above, 1990 as a whole is a terrible year at the Oscars. If you subtract the beautiful GoodFellas, you’re left with some truly atrocious movies (seriously, why was this the first Best Picture lineup that I finished watching?) This romance, a turgid piece of tripe, may seem sweet and lovely in your memories, but that’s only because the Righteous Brothers’ rich melodies have clouded your mind. This is a truly awful movie-Demi Moore and Patrick Swayze’s earth/heaven romance is a love story between two dreadful actors, both of whom have the combined charisma of my coffee table. Even Whoopi Goldburg, attempting comic relief with mixed success, can’t save this bloated ship. Watch another romance, and pray that this inexplicable Box Office champ goes the way of Patrick Swayze’s career.

9. She Done Him Wrong (1933)
If Mae West were somehow reincarnated, and started to do Vaudeville on Broadway, she’d be selling to sell-out shows, and I’d be lining up to buy a ticket. As a standup comic, she’s like a trampy, insanely busty, oversexed Bob Hope; her schtick is predictable as dirt, but still manages to gain an endless stream of laughter. However, when it comes to this movie, she should have to stuck to the stage. Even the presence of a young Cary Grant can’t save this movie from being an incredibly dull farce. West’s classic one-liners aside, this is a messy screwball romance that is so forgettable I needed to check my crib notes to find out some of the key plot points.

8. Gangs of New York (2002)
Daniel Day-Lewis, stand aside, partially because you’re performance in this film, though a little hammy at times, is the only saving grace from making this hit the top five, and partially because you scare me to death in this movie. Marty Scorsese, a man who has made some of the finest, grittiest dramas of the last thirty years, proves that no one is perfect with this D-Grade historical epic, complete with atrocious acting from the usually reliable Leonardo DiCaprio and the always horrendous Cameron Diaz, along with a storyline that manages to be revenge tale, coming-of-age-story, historical epic, and romance, though never really becoming successful in any of these undertakings. Since this film, Scorsese has made two of the decade’s best, but after this atrocity, we had these filmic apologies coming.

7. A Thousand Clowns (1965)
Like Number Eight, this is a film that’s so dull, I had to check a couple notes to figure out some plot points, but unlike Number Eight, I just watched this movie a month ago. Its crime is also slightly worse in the way it presents truly annoying characters in a likeable light, and expects the audience to somehow relate to the “misunderstood soul” of Jason Robards, the spazzy Barbara Harris, and the precociously dull Barry Gordon. Even in a role that somehow won Martin Balsam an Oscar, the film can’t latch onto a character of much substance (Balsam seems to be playing Martin Balsam-not a bad role, but not of a stretch). Balsam, Robards, and Harris were all magical in Breakfast at Tiffany’s, Julia, and Nashville, respectfully. Perhaps they would have been better served storing up their magic and my memory wouldn’t vaguely recall this schlocky issue film.

6. The Green Mile (1999)
Leave it to Oscar in a year that seemed to revolutionize film for the next Millennium, when movies were exploring every facet that seemed imaginable, to select the really super-important-Stephen-King-prison-epic-starring-Tom Hanks-and-a-bunch-of-other-people-who-aren’t-important-enough-to-have-names. Seriously, this movie from its opening scenes is a both predictable and hokey. Who didn’t think the actual killer would be revealed, or that the scary giant wouldn’t in fact be a sweet saint. Michael Clarke Duncan beat Christopher Plummer for a nomination for this? This was nominated when Toy Story 2 and The Talented Mr. Ripley (amongst dozens that I could list in exasperation) didn’t receive a mention in the top category. Someone should have been punished for this, and unfortunately, it was the viewer.

5. Awakenings (1990)
Robin Williams is a funny guy, and not a bad actor when he puts his mind to it. Anyone who disagrees can check out his performance as the Genie in Aladdin, a comic tour de force if there ever was one. So why is it that when Oscar comes a-calling, he always seems to be putting in the most maudlin tales imaginable? The hopeless dreck of Good Will Hunting's crying-in-your-beer tale is really rather awful. Even worse, however, is this movie about comatose patients reawakened by a miracle drugs. A plot so predictable and overdone you have expect Cliff Robertson to show up screaming, "I've already done this!!!" Williams is mundane, De Niro chomps on the waiting room furniture, and in the end, even the moments that are supposed to be tear-wrenching have no effect whatsoever. All in all, a rather stiff and overdone tale.

4. Braveheart (1995)
I have not always hated Mel Gibson, I'll admit it right now. There was a time, growing up, I thought this Aussie could be good for a few laughs, and though I haven't seen it in years, I remember distinctly enjoying the mindless fun of films like Bird on a Wire. That said, when he wants to be "artistic" and "dramatic," he's a dismal failure. The Passion, with its violence for violence sake, would certainly have made this list, if Oscar hadn't had the good taste to leave it off of its shortlist. Unfortunately, the Academy didn't show the same good taste with this tale of William Wallace. The acting is abysmal (sorry Mel, but you are not Laurence Olivier), the script is ridiculous, and a few watchable fight scenes to not make up for a lack of proper story arc and acting. In a year with films as beautiful as Sense and Sensibility, Toy Story, and Babe, it's a shame that Oscar had to go with Mel's bloody failure.

3. Airport (1970)
I have thusfar been able to avoid The Towering Inferno, which I fear may be even worse than this horrid disaster flick (Oscar had an odd fetish for nominating star-studded disaster flicks in the 1970s). However, this is bad enough. Despite the presence of certified thespians Jean Seberg, Helen Hayes, Burt Lancaster, George Kennedy, and Jacqueline Bisset, this film can't help but fall into the rut of every single other disaster film, and is filled with schmaltz. Lancaster's tendency to overact several characters has never been more on display, and Hayes is totally wasted as a paint-by-numbers elderly woman. Only Maureen Stapleton is worth watching, as she steals every scene she's in; however, when the stench off the rest of the film is this strong, this is unfortunatley petty theft.

2. The Godfather, Part III (1990)
I was tempted to put this at Number One, but I figured giving this the top slot would be unfair, considering part of its failure is that it can't compare with its far more talented predecessors. The film, however, doesn't even come close to deserving an Oscar nod (not even in one of the worst years for the lineup that I've ever seen). I mean, Pacino and Garcia are fine, but Talia Shire takes her hysterics from Part II and amps up the volume, and most unfortunately, there is Sofia in the middle. Sure, she made up for it thirteen years later with one of the best films of the decade, but man did she have a lot to make-up for; that death scene is just horrid (and no, I don't mind ruining that one-save yourself and resist the urge to watch this and instead catch one of the first two flicks). A film truly worthy of its awful reputation.

1. Crash (2005)
And speaking of reputations, Roger Ebert's completely took a hit with me after he called this film the best flick of the year. I seriously would have considered it for the worst of the year list-when the best performance of your film is turned in by a woman whose in the film for three-four minutes (that you'd be, Devine Ms. Loretta), you have problems. It isn't just that the film simplifies racism to the simplest of stereotypes, it's also that it puts together a really awful, risk-free script, and presents a series of characters two-dimensional, you half expect them to fall over and reveal they were just cardboard cutouts.

And there you have it, the worst of the best. If, however, you want to enjoy the best of the best, do yourself a favor and investigate Nick's Flick Picks where Oscar-viewing is championed and it is accompanied by witty, incisive observations of the films that the Golden Guy loved the most.

Senate Time Capsule

2006-11-08T19:51:00.000-08:00

Well, it seems that the Democrats have won back the U.S. Senate, and much congratulations have to go out to all of the new senators, as well as those that have been reelected.

Two years ago, one wouldn't have expected any sort of race for George Allen, Mike DeWine, or Lincoln Chafee, and yet they will soon be collecting unemployment. Which is why this exercise may seem silly, but I want a Senate Outlook Chart that I can mock myself for in two years, so here's a preview of what to look for two years from now.

It should be noted that this will be a much easier cycle for Democrats, as there are more Republicans up for reelection than there are Democrats. This is why you will hear that Republicans will have trouble taking back the Senate in 2008.

1. Colorado-No state in the last four years has best illustrated a state that Democrats can turn purple: it's given the Democrats the governor's mansion, a Senate seat, two House seats, and both chambers of its state legilature. This will be a top target in more than one way in 2008-expect the Democratic nominee for president to be gunning for its nine electoral votes, the Democrats will continue gunning for CO-4, and of course this seat. Rep. Mark Udall is already running for this seat, and his tenure in the House, plus his golden last name, make him a good candidate here. Wayne Allard may run for reelection, or could potentially retire. Allard's not very popular, but only Bill Owens would guarantee any sort of victory for Republicans in an open seat. Either way, Udall will be a major player in the battle for the Senate 2008.

2. New Mexico-If Pete Domenici retires, this becomes a marquee race that NM politicos have been talking about for years: Rep. Tom Udall (yes, another Udall-I believe they are cousins) will take on moderate Rep. Heather Wilson. The Dems best candidate would be Gov. Bill Richardson, who would even be able to defeat Domenici, but Udall is a good follow-up. If the statewide races of 2006 (which went almost exclusively blue) are any indication, Wilson could be in trouble, but she's a legendary campaigner and will definitely give Udall a run for his money.

Update: Domenici has announced that he will run again, which I still think could change (remember Jeffords and Nighthorse Campbell). However, if he does run again, this race starts to drop for a while. The Dems won't be able to get Udall, but Schumer will likely target Gov. Bill Richardson or Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who would be better candidates than Udall. Also, if those two fail, he may try the retiring Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron.

3. Louisiana-If there's one Democrat who is accustomed to close races, it is Sen. Mary Landrieu, who happens to be one of the few Southern Democrats still left in the U.S. Senate. There are two factors that are both terribly hurting and potentially helping Mary Landrieu. Hurting her terribly is Hurricane Katrina, and the question mark of whether or not black voters have dissipated to the point where this is a state that will be impossible for Democrats to win in. The goverenor's race will provide some clue. Helping her is the fact that her top opponent, Rep. Bobby Jindal proved before that he has trouble being elected statewide. Expect to hear a lot more on this race later.

4. Minnesota-Norm Coleman has the same problem and blessing of Mary Landrieu. He is in a state that recent trends show will make it damn near impossible for Republicans to win statewide. Coleman isn't popular, and will be seriously overshadowed by the well-liked Amy Klobuchar. However, I can't figure out who will run agaisnt him. Mike Hatch will consider it, but he's the Bobby Jindal equivalent in Minnesota-he just won't be able to win. Lori Swanson, Rebecca Otto, and Mark Ritchie are now the Dems rather impressive bench, but they were just elected to their positions, so they're likely out. Senate Leader Dean Johnson lost reelection, For. Auditor Judi Dutcher just lost the Lt. Governor race, and the House bench features a novice (Tim Walz), two partisan liberals (Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison), and two aging House chairmen (Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar). The Dems are going to need to find another Klobuchar lying around: perhaps they'll go with popular mayor R.T. Rybak, a female from the House leadership like Connie Bernardy or Ann Lenczewski (who is pro-life), or risk it with the waiting-in-line Betty Mccollum? Once those questions are answered, then we'll know about the challenge to Coleman.

5. New Hampshire-If this past cycle showed anything, it was that New England Republcians are an endangered species, and one-term Senator John Sununu has to be shaking in his boots. This is one of those races where it all comes down to one candidate: if fantastically popular governor John Lynch runs against him, he will start the race a severe underdog. Otherwise, Sununu would have to be favored. Expect a Draft Lynch movement to begin soon. Sununu has spent his first term keeping a well-balanced, moderate record, and will be able to honestly run as a centrist.

Update: Lynch claims that he won't be running for this seat. Granted, he could go after Gregg's seat in 2010 (that may be smarter, as, if Sununu loses in 2008, he'll likely retire). That severely limits the Democrats for 2008, as their best candidate is Jeanne Shaheen, who lost in 2002 (anyone know the last time a Senate rematch changed a seat)?

6. South Dakota-Like Sununu, this is a race that depends all on one governor, in this case Mike Rounds, the popular Republican incumbent. If Rounds runs against Tim Johnson in his quest for a third term, this will be the barn-burner of the cycle. However, if Johnson can avoid the Rounds challenge, he should be able to cruise to victory ala Stephanie Herseth this cycle.

7. Oregon-Gordon Smith is moderately popular, but Dems seem on a quest to purge blue states of Republican senators, and this certainly would be toward the top of blue state Republicans. John Kitzhaber, the former governor who remains popular, would be a fine candidate here, and would make this a tossup instantly. However, if Kitzhaber stays out, Smith will have a major advantage, as he is well-liked not only by the public, but also by fellow Sen. Ron Wyden (D).

8. Maine-I include this not because Collins is unpopuar, or, to be honest, all that vulnerable (she isn't). I put this in because Collins had stated in the past that she would only serve two terms in the Senate, and she may retire to become governor of Maine. If this happens, the Republicans have no bench in this state to run a candidate, and Rep. Tom Allen, the very liberal congressman who has been waiting patiently for one of the twins to leave office, will cruise to an easy victory here, giving another New England seat to the Democrats.

9. Virginia-John Warner is not going to lose. Despite Virginia's clear friendliness to vote Democratic as of late (Warner, Kaine, and Webb can attest), Warner is an institution in the state. However, if he decides that this is the time to retire, all eyes will be on For. Gov. Mark Warner, who will begged and pleaded with to run for the seat (Kaine would be a very strong, but definitely second place, choice). For the Republicans, Rep. Tom Davis has been waiting patiently for his turn at the Senate. Mark Warner would be the recruit of the cycle, and don't think that Chuck Schumer, who may chair the DSCC again, isn't already thinking about what committee slots he could dangle in front of his face.

Update: Rumors are swirling fast and hard that Warner will retire this cycle; if Schumer drafts Mark Warner to run here, consider it the biggest draft win of the cycle, the equivalent of Bob Casey, Jr. last cycle-otherwise, the Dems will have a slightly harder time picking this seat up.

10. Montana-Two things about this race could skyrocket it or push it into safe territory. If Max Baucus retires, Rep. Denny Rehberg will run for this seat, and this seat will in all likelihood be perched at number one for the rest of the cycle. However, if Baucus stays in office, he may be the only person who could take on a Rehberg challenge. If Rehberg doesn't challenge, this will drop off the top twenty, and Baucus will be as safe as can be.

11. Michigan-One of the Dems most vulnerable seats that became a lot less vulnerable after the latest election-Levin will likely run for reelection, and, as can be witnessed by Stabenow's recent strong win, the Dems have a stronghold with their incumbents. If Levin does retire, the Dems are scrapped; Granholm just won a tough reelection, which will make the bid for a Senate seat so soon seem opportunistic, John Cherry, her Lt. Governor, has been invisible most of this career, and Bart Stupak's the only congressman who could make a legitimate claim on this. Meanwhile, the Republicans have Rep. Candice Miller, Attorney General Michael Cox, and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. All in all, the Dems better pray that Levin stays in office.

12. Arkansas-I put this in, but I think in the next round, this will drop dramatically. Huckabee seems intent on running for president, and Pryor is more popular than Lincoln. Plus, Republicans just missed out on all four statewide offices, so their bench is completely tapped. The only reason this seat is so high is that if the GOP truly wants to regain the Senate, they will have to look at red state Dems like this.

13. New Jersey-Lautenberg, if he knows what's good for the Dems, would retire this cycle. The Dems could not be in a better position to pick up this seat: Bob Menendez just clobbered Tom Kean, Jr., the Republicans best candidate, and there's a great bench in Reps. Pallone, Andrews, and Holt. The Republicans have Charlie Cristie, the only GOP member who could actually win in New Jersey. As it is, though, Lautenberg will win, have a ten-point instead of the should-be twenty point victory, and New Jersey will continue to have two of the lowest-approved Senators.

14. North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole should have no trouble, should she stay in office, and avoid one candidate: Gov. Mike Easley. Sen. John Edwards won't run here, but I suspect Easley could be coaxed into it. Expect Chuck Schumer to go here, especially if New Mexico can't yield a candidate of quality.

15. West Virginia-Once again, expect a chorus of, "Shelley Moore Capito! Shelley Moore Capito!" Had the Dems not won back the Senate, Rockefeller would have retired and this would have been yet another Southern state that elected a Republican. However, Rockefeller will continue on, chairing his committee, and the Dems will win this again (and Moore Capito will have to wait...and wait...and wait).

16. Iowa-It's technically a red state, but I suspect that will be changed in 2008 (especially after the Culver/Braley/Loebsack/Boswell punch of 2006). Harkin won't retire now that he's a chairman, and though Republicans could put up defeated gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jim Nussle or Rep. Steve King, this will be an uphill fight for the GOP.

17. Delaware-I include this only because, should Joe Biden retire and Rep. Michael Castle run for the seat, the GOP could pick this up. Should Castle retire or Biden announce his reelection, this will drop easily out of the Top Twenty. As it is, I'll keep it simmering, seeing what seats may rise into the Top Twenty. FYI, if Biden does retire Treasurer Jack Markell or Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (his son) will be the frontrunners for the Dems.

18. Mississippi-Thad Cochran's at the top of the retirement lists, and while I can't imagine that the Dems could ever pick up a Senate seat in Mississippi, Atty. Gen. Mike Moore has been so bragged up through the years, I'm kind of curious to see what sort of margin he would receive. The Republican frontrunner would be Rep. Chip Pickering, but purportedly Rep. Roger Wicker, especially in the minority, doesn't want to sit around and crown Pickering, so we could be looking at a primary.

19. Oklahoma-In normal situations, Republicans wouldn't have a prayer of losing a federal race in Oklahoma, but if the Dems could convince Drew Edmondson or Brad Henry to run here, and if Inhofe lives up to his potential, we could see a Conrad Burns/Jim Bunning situation here. The Republicans lose (or almost lose) because of a truly awful incumbent.

20. Alaska-Only if Ted Retires will we see anything wrong here. However, Ted looks to be running again, so I'll just wait for another race to enter the Top Twenty. Look for this to drop next time.

New Senate Outlook

2006-10-22T07:36:00.000-07:00

The Senate list is getting tighter, more efficient-the Top Four are getting further and further away from the Republican's hold, and the next four are getting tighter and tighter together. Anything after Number Nine will be a HUGE upset, but considering the volatility of this year, I wouldn't doubt a surprise could happen.

1. Pennsylvania-Santorum seems to have faded into oblivion, and Bob Casey, Jr. has started to outraise the incumbent. This will probably be the Democrat's favorite moment of the night, defeating the poster child of the Religious Right. (1)

2. Montana-Burns is starting to gain, but Tester appears solidly over 50 percent. Burns only hope would be in that Bush has a net positive in Montana, one of the few states he can claim that over. (2)

3. Ohio-The Republicans are bailing out of Ohio, and insiders state that DeWine is down by double digits at this point. (3)

4. Rhode Island-Whitehouse has opened up a solid single digit lead over Chafee, and the national Republicans aren't even mentioning him in ad buys at the moment. What with Shays and Chafee potentially going down, could this cycle be the death of the New England Republican? (4)

5. Missouri-Claire McCaskill has started airing the most powerful ad of the cycle, featuring Michael J. Fox in an advanced state of Parkinson's Disease. This could be a make-or-break moment among independents, so look to see public opinion. (5)

6. Tennessee-Ford has done absolutely everything right in this race: kept his negatives down, made his Republican look on weak on almost every issue, and basically run the most flawless campaign of the cycle. If this race was in Michigan or Washington, it would be a done deal at this point. The only thing helping Corker is that guaranteed 47 percent that a Republican comes with in Tennessee. (6)

7. Virginia-I said last time that this could be one of the races that picks up if the challenger starts shooting forward. Jim Webb is that candidate. Allen, like Corker in Tennessee, starts this race with a guaranteed 47 percent. If the momentum continues, Allen will lose, but he only has sixteen days to catch up-will there be enough time? (8)

8. New Jersey-If momentum continues, the Republicans will have given up possibly their best shot of the cycle. Had Liddy Dole adopted Tom Kean's campaign earlier, they could have made Kean the boy wonder of the cycle. Instead, Menendez defined Kean and this is slowly becoming out-of-reach for the Republicans. Now, I won't say this is in stone for the D's (particularly because Menendez often let's his mouth start yapping), but at the moment, the most vulnerable D-seat is looking less and less vulnerable. (7)

9. Maryland-Polls range from being in the MOE to being a solid lead for Cardin. Either way, it's looking more and more like the Democrats will come home once more in Maryland to help oust the Republicans. Let's just hope that when Babs Mikulski retires, the Democrats put up someone more exhilerating than Cardin. (9)

10. Michigan-Stabenow's seat is suddenly becoming more and more in play, and I think if this was September instead of October, the Republicans would start pouring money into this race, but at this point they are only able to go on defense in VA, MO, and TN. (11)

11. Nebraska-I put this one next because Ben Nelson holds this seat on some sort of borrowed time. The Democratic wave will make him win, but I suspect he'll start stockpiling for 2012, when he'll have to go up against presidential race. Republicans are probably kicking themselves for not forcing Johanns, Nelson, or Heinemann into this race. (12)

12. Washington-Cantwell has done it-the National Republicans are dropping out of this race, Cantwell has a solid lead, and the wave will carry Cantwell into a second term. I'd recommend, if she wants to hold this seat for years to come, she should start connecting more with the voters ala Patty Murray. (10)

13. Arizona-The wave is the only thing keeping this on the table. This may end up being the Democrats one that got away, as Pederson probably won't be able to top 45 percent at this point. (13)

14. Nevada-The biggest mover on this list, not just because Carter has officially topped 40 percent, but because Gibbons scandal can't help Ensign in this race. One has to wonder how many scandals Ensign can juggle without falling. (18)

15. Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar seems inevitable at this point, as Mark Kennedy seems to be running one of the worst campaigns I've seen. The real question here is whether or not Minnesota, after the very blue 2004 and what could be another very blue 2006, has simply returned to its liberal roots (thus damaging severely Norm's chances in 2008). (14)

16. Vermont-Sanders continues to slide into the easiest open seat race of the cycle. (15)

17. West Virginia-Byrd, considering the current climate, would have been the Republicans' smartest investment, but they didn't give to Raese early enough this cycle to do any good and Byrd will be orating on the Senate floor for (god-willing) another six years. (16)

18. Connecticut-Lieberman's going to win, so let's hope that Reid et al. are planning on handing him a key committee assignment to keep him from migrating to the other side. (17)

19. Florida-Harris continues to sound like a better-looking Alan Keyes. Even in Florida, Keyes couldn't win, and Harris won't either. (19)

20. Hawaii-I'm moving this up more because Akaka, who may be wounded amongst moderates from the primary, lost a major newspaper announcement. He won't lose, but he probably may stay below 60 percent. (20)

House Race Outlook

2006-10-15T09:40:00.000-07:00

Here they are again, ranked from most likely to change to least likely. There are no new entrants this week (though if I had a list of forty, there would be several more very vulnerable Republicans seeping into it)

1. Arizona-8: Does anyone think that Graf can win? He's getting no bounce from the McCain endorsement, and Giffords basically has office space lined up. (1)

2. Texas-22: The ethical debate is going to help Lampson dramatically. Sekula-Gibbs's clock is ticking over trying to get her name out there... (5)

3. Pennsylvania-10: Sherwood's in the middle of a huge ethical scandal, and suddenly his opponent Chris Carney has opened a dramatic lead. This is the Dems to lose at this point. (3)

4. Florida-16: Tim Mahoney is leading in the latest polls, but the NRCC is spending a mint trying to hold this (possibly out of fear that Mahoney will turn into Melissa Bean). (2)

5. Indiana-8: The latest round of polls, another week of Ellsworth double-digit leads. Hostettler just this week started to campaign on television. (6)

6. Colorado-7: O'Donnell is closing the gap, but is it enough? Ritter's coattails could help here, but will the marginality of this district help at all for the GOP? (4)

7. Ohio-18: One of the biggest jumps this week, mainly because Joy Padgett has yet to gain a lead, despite having weeks to gain notoriety (err, name recognition). Bankruptcy and Ney floating into the news again only helps Space. (12)

8. Indiana-2: Donnelly continues to cruise to reelection in what has to be the oddest race of the cycle. (7)

9. Iowa-1: Polls are starting to align again for Democrat Braley, but Whalen seems to be able to turn the campaign very nasty. (8)

10. New York-26: Reynolds does not appear to have recovered from the Foley scandal, and Davis has yet to make any mistakes. (9)

11. Pennsylvania-6: The Murphy/Gerlach race isn't the lock that it used to be for the Democrats, but the reality is that this will go to whomever wins the House. If the Democrats win it back, it'll be Lois Murphy. If the Republicans hang on, it'll be Gerlach. (10)

12. Indiana-9: Unlike Donnelly and Ellsworth, Baron Hill is a known commodity and that makes this slightly more difficult for the Democrats. This is definitely third in Indiana, but the unfavorable conditions for Democrats there won't help Sodrel. (13)

13. Pennsylvania-7: Though the aftereffect of the Weldon scandal isn't completely known, my guess is that it won't be good. Look at what happened to Don Sherwood, Joy Padgett, etc. and you can see why Joe Sestak is so happy. (16)

14. Ohio-15: Every major pundit is starting to write off Deborah Pryce, and I don't know why-it seems like the best type of tossup. However, pundits tend to know these things, and Pryce certainly isn't gaining from the Foley scandal. (14)

15. Connecticut-2: It seems fitting that this is at fifteen-it's the seat that no one can gage. If the Democrats have any sort of wave, I'd suspect that this gets swept away. Otherwise, Simmons is a consummate campaigner. (11)

16. North Carolina-11: Rep. Charles Taylor is not doing well against Shuler in the light of the Culture of Corruption coming back to light. (15)

17. Connecticut-4: I was preparing to write this seat off until Chris Shays started to say more stupid things than Tom Reynolds. This was looking like a race that simply favored Shays because he's the incumbent, but now that there's a reason to vote him out of office... (26)

18. New York-24: Arcuri's getting good press over Meier, and no Republican is safe this cycle in New York. (19)

19. New Mexico-1: This will be one of the most fun seats on Election Night. One could make plausible arguments about either woman being ahead, and this may be the definitive bellwether district. (17)

20. Florida-22: Clay Shaw is in a mildly Democratic district that could fall as it neighbors the Foley district. Klein's a great campaigner, but Shaw's done this before. (18)

21. Florida-13: I'm guessing that this goes the same way as Shaw, as it has about the same reason to switch. Jennings is the real deal as a candidate, and Vern Buchanan is a bad campaigner. (20)

22. Illinois-6: If the Hastert angle of the Foley scandal resonates anywhere, it will be in this district. Duckworth is the one with all of the momentum, but will Roskam be able to sit on top of the GOP advantage? (21)

23. Wisconsin-8: Kagen appears to have all of the heat in this race, and if the Democrats win here, they'll easily be taking back the House. This is getting more and more on people's radar screens, and is a true tossup. (25)

24. Minnesota-6: If Wetterling's going to get in, will it be because of Foley's scandal or the burgeoning coattails that Amy Klobuchar is drawing? Every poll that shows that Kennedy is losing by double digits won't help Republican turnout in the most Republican district in Minnesota. (24)

25. Ohio-1: This doesn't have the same marquee value as Ohio 15 and 18, but for Republicans in Ohio, can Republicans rest on their laurels? (22)

26. Kentucky-4: Ken Lucas has stumbled a bit in the last couple of weeks, and unlike Ohio or Pennsylvania, there's no new races to get the vote out here. (27)

27. Washington-8: Both national parties are poring money into this race, and Burner is rising, but is it too late? (28)

28. Pennsylvania-8: In an odd move, a PA Republican is getting better buzz than a PA Democrat. Apparently, Fitzpatrick is running a fairly effective ad campaign. (23)

29. Virginia-2: Phil Kellam was headed to Congress before the assault charges, but Thelma Drake has to be breathing a lot easier at this point and praying that George Allen doesn't say anything stupid again. (29)

30. Connecticut-5: If this is a true wave, Nancy Johnson's effective campaign won't be able to work. Otherwise, Chris Murphy better start gunning for 2008. (30)

Five Ups, Five Downs

2006-10-13T07:24:00.000-07:00

On the rise:

1. New York Democrats: Spitzer, Clinton, and Cuomo are all cruising to a massive reelection. Tom Reynolds is falling faster than Superman coated in kryptonite. All of this adds up to vulnerable Republicans: it appears, according to a recent string of polls, it may be more than just NY-24 and NY-29: Sue Kelly, Peter King, and John Sweeney are all very vulnerable.

2. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives: Republicans have scaled back their ad wars in districts like Alan Mollohan's and John Spratt's, and once vulnerable Democrats are turning into safe bets for reelection. This also includes Charlie Wilson in Ohio-6, who may the easiest reelection of any candidate who was written off at some point in this cycle.

3. Claire McCaskill: McCaskill hit a historic and pivotal point in her campaign this last week: she cracked fifty percent in a poll, and in SurveyUSA no less! While it is still too soon to race this anything but a tossup, if this continues, it may join Rhode Island and Ohio as a race that everyone's calling a Tossup but is leaning to the Democrats.

4. Nancy Johnson-Another poll, another Johnson lead-Murphy just doesn't appear to be gathering enough traction this cycle, all of which is making it look like one CT Republican will be returning in November. Murphy better be hoping that Johnson retires in 2008, as that may be his only shot at winning this seat.

5. Mike DeWine-I list him not because he's leading in any polls, but because the Republicans are rumored to be spending $10 million to try to keep DeWine in the Senate. If you ask me, this would be smarter spent in New Jersey or Missouri, but to each his own.

On the fall:

1. Chris Shays-Just when he was cruising to a difficult, but increasingly certain reelection, he says one of the least intelligent comments of the cycle, saying that unlike Teddy Kenneddy, Mark Foley didn't kill anyone. There are no polls out right now, but it appears as if Shays calling a U.S. Senator a murderer won't help his race in liberal Connecticut.

2. Angie Paccione-The Democrats have started to pull money out of this race, which can only spell a loss for Paccione.

3. Curt Weldon-Already in a tight race, he's now in his own lobbying scandal. This could not have had worse timing for Weldon, who may have just used his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

4. Patrick Murphy-Apparently Mike Fitzpatrick's latest ad is a doozy, and Murphy could be labeled too young and inexperienced at this point.

5. Vern Buchanan-He's sinking his money into the race, and yet Jennings seems to have pulled a very real lead at this point in the wake of the Harris/Foley train wrecks.

New House Outlook

2006-10-10T18:49:00.000-07:00

Here is another take on the Top Thirty. Just one sentences here (check out my previous post for any more in depth analysis). (The previous rank is in parantheses)

1. Arizona-8: Giffords continues to cruise over Graf. The McCain endorsement just doesn't help. (1)

2. Florida-16: Ain't no way that Mark Foley's name is going to help Joe Negron. The Republicans basically should throw in the towel here. (NEW!)

3. Pennsylvania-10: Another scandal-plagued incumbent, Sherwood looks destined for failure to Carney. (21)

4. Colorado-7: Despite a closing of the gap, the fact that Bill Ritter will win here over incumbent Beauprez spells disaster for O'Donnell. (3)

5. Texas-22: Sekula-Gibbs needed a massive amount of money that the National GOP won't give her. (2)

6. Indiana-8: Ellsworth's law enforcement credentials could be a big help in this race. (7)

7. Indiana-2: Joe Donnelly continues to lead Rep. Chris Chocola in one of the most unexplainable races of the cycle (9)

8. Iowa-1: The Zogby poll still throws me, and until the Dems counter, I'll be dropping this race. (4)

9. New York-26: If any member of the House leadership is going down, it will be Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has ran an absolutely abysmal apology campaign (NEW!)

10. Pennsylvania-6: Lois Murphy has started to air ads, and appears to be following the Debbie Stabenow method of flooding the airwaves in the last four weeks. It could work... (6)

11. Connecticut-2: Those most conservative ads are going to hurt Rep. Simmons in this highly partisan atmosphere. (8)

12. Ohio-18: Basically, Joy Padgett is stewing in a sea of corrupt names: now she has to deal with Hastert, Boehner, and Foley to go along with Bush, Taft, and Ney. (17)

13. Indiana-9: The sudden demotion is brought on by an only two point lead for Hill over Sodrely in the latest SurveyUSA poll (5)

14. Ohio-15: Almost every pundit is writing this with Kilroy having an advantage, and the drubbing of the House leadership can't help Pryce (16).

15. North Carolina-11: Again, scandal can't help incumbent Taylor against Shuler. (18)

16. Pennsylvania-7: The NRCC spent a solo weak of spending just against Sestak instead of Murphys squared. That says something about the competitiveness here (26).

17. New Mexico-1: This has actually been an improvement week for Madrid (good polling), but the top fifteen suddenly became more competitive (12).

18. Florida-22: Shaw was running a good campaign, but now he has to tackle the Foley scandal (19).

19. New York-24: Arcuri had a non-scandal last week, but not all press is good press, and in a race this close, everything matters (10).

20. Florida-13: Polls show a wounded Vern Buchanan (R) losing to Christine Jennings (D). The stench of both current incumbent Katherine Harris's Senate campaign, along with neighboring district FL-16 with Foley makes Jennings a white hot candidate right now. This is the only district not directly associated with Foley that's been added this time (NEW!)

21. Illinois-6: Tammy Duckworth has an uphill battle against a non-scandalized GOPer in this red district, but she's kept it microscopic. (20)

22. Ohio-1: Anyone in Ohio should be troubled right now, and that includes Steve Chabot (24).

23. Pennsylvania-8: Will the Rendell/Casey landslides be able to bring the three Philly suburbs along with it? (13)

24. Minnesota-6: The Foley scandal has apparently helped Wetterling close the gap, but will she have the extra oomph to get that final five percent? (25)

25. Wisconsin-8: The gay marriage ban may ultimately elect Gard, but right now Republicans are doing horribly in open seats (27)

26. Connecticut-4: A big demotion, but Shays may be too liberal to lose, and Lieberman is clearly not helping things for the Democrats (11).

27. Kentucky-4: Lucas made a derogatory comment about gays, which isn't the best way to fundraise with liberal donors (14).

28. Washington-8: Dave Reichert still has the edge in this moderate WA district (22)

29. Virginia-2: The Phil Kellam battery scandal will likely sink his candidacy: I'm waiting for polls to back this up (15)

30. Connecticut-5: This is one of the nastiest campaigns of the cycle. Let's not remember what happened to Johnson in 1996 because of links to the GOP leadership (29).

I chose NY-26 and FL-16 to add for obvious reasons-the Foley scandal basically gave the Democrats these two seats. FL-13 is just a hunch, but polls appear to be backing me up.

Here's why I dropped these three:

Georgia-12: With all the money being spent saving Republican incumbents, I doubt that they'll have much left over to pick up this risky venture.

Vermont-AL: Rainville's links to the GOP leadership, however remote, kill her chances in this liberal year/district.

Colorado-4: This was sitting at number 31, I swear, and could still turn.

Five Ups, Five Downs

2006-10-10T17:39:00.000-07:00

Here's a look at five ups and five downs in this year's elections

Who's Up:

1. Amy Klobuchar-Republicans may spin it any way they want, but both national parties backing out of this race can only spell Senator Amy Klobuchar come November.

2. Second/Third Tier Female Democrats Challenging Republican Men-If the Foley scandal helps anyone, it's women runnning against Republican men. I'm thinking of people like Vic Wulsin, Nancy Boyda, Linda Stender, and Ellen Simon, amongst others, who will receive a three-four point increase because of this.

3. George Allen-There's no doubt that he's taking a little bit of a lead now in Virginia, and with only four weeks left, the DSCC better hope that their ad campaign is effective.

4. Christine Jennings-Somehow she's come out of nowhere and may be able to make Katherine Harris's follies plus Mark Foley's scandal turn into a win for her come November. The polls show she's not to be underestimated.

5. Patty Wetterling-Her opponent doesn't believe in global warming, and the Foley scandal is the complete antithesis to her lifetime of public service on behalf of children.

Who's Down:

1. Lincoln Chafee-The Republicans are funding in OH, TN, and MO for the next four weeks; this doesn't bode well for Linc, who was counting on national Republican money. Is the Democratic wave just too strong for him to hold up in super blue RI?

2. John Baldacci-One Democratic incumbent will go down come Election Night-the irratic nature of Maine voters and his near tie right now make him a prime candidate.

3. Ned Lamont-Lieberman has an almost insurmountable lead right now, and the DSCC won't spend a dime supporting Lamont when the likes of Ford, Menendez, and McCaskill need it more.

4. Dick DeVos-The latest bunch of polls show that Granholm has started a just outside the MOE lead. Her charisma may pull it out over his businessman like style.

5. Tim Pawlenty-Suddenly, this race has Hatch leading and everyone's shifting this to tossup categories. Ill feelings for Republicans can't help in still fairly blue Minnesota.