George Lee's blog

很唐突的問句

2008-07-02T21:03:00.002+08:00

今天和朋友吃完飯，準備搭捷運回家放個東西再出門。就在南京東路口上，遇上一個似乎是拿問卷的小姐。不過我不喜歡在這種事情上浪費時間，照慣例我是不會停步填寫或是聽他們說話的。

女子接近我，滿面堆歡，說道：「先生，請問你趕時間嗎？」
我搖搖手，說道：「不好意思。」穿身而過。
女子的聲音從背後傳來：「不好意思喔？你要去哪裡？」

我愣了一下，火氣馬上上來了，連頭也懶得回，繼續走。我還隱約聽到她最後一句話：「掰掰唷。」哼，我可真不想再見呢。

我搞不太懂。我要去哪是我家的事情，關妳屁事啊？難道我告訴妳我要去哪以後，妳可以替我決定我趕不趕時間、應該不應該留下來填問卷什麼的嗎？

我知道大家在社會上都是討一口飯吃，我也不想給人臭臉看。但是這麼白目的問題，根本就是把人當白痴看的問句，要不被人擺臉色也難吧。

flickr 創辦人夫婦離職

2008-06-19T18:03:00.003+08:00

知名相簿社群網站 Flickr 的創辦人夫婦，Stewart Butterfield 和 Caterina Fake，都已經或即將要離開 Yahoo 了。

其實這並不是什麼新聞，遠在去年年尾就不斷有馬路消息的傳聞出現。但是具有指標意義的人離開，多少還是有衝擊性的。這個消息最讓人感興趣的，還是 Stewart 寫的離職信。信件圖檔已經在網路上傳開，我把原圖貼在下面。真的很有 Butterfield style 啊 :p

另一方面，對 Yahoo 來說，隨著指標性人物的大規模離職，似乎也表示谷底的時刻終於來了。可以想見的是，等到黑夜過去，又會是另一個黎明。不過漫漫長夜總是比較難熬啊。1998 年的 Apple，和 96 年的 IBM，也是都走過這一遭的。

157 點的逆價差

2008-06-19T15:10:00.002+08:00

(原尺寸的圖在這裡)

好久沒看到這種景象了。大跌不怎麼令人意外，但是高達 157 點的逆價差卻著實不常見。在期貨市場的賣聲隆隆之中，也讓人再次見識到市場激情的特色。

一塊破紀錄，一塊送愛心~

2008-06-11T03:23:00.002+08:00

簡單又有意思的小活動。在四川地震逐漸從媒體消褪的現在，Recordcup 的這個小活動也許可以讓大家一邊玩疊疊樂，一邊放送自己的關懷與愛心。讓已經再螢光幕上消失的四川災民也還能感受到一些溫暖。

活動內容大概是這樣的，就是讓大家比比看，誰疊一元硬幣可以疊的比較高。你能疊多高，Recordcup 就捐多少錢給四川災民 (世界展望會專戶)。詳細情形可以看活動內容專頁。

Yahoo 終於開放通訊錄的 API 了

2008-06-05T03:59:00.003+08:00

等的好久啊...

以前 Yahoo Mail 剛推出 API 的時候，很多人都在紛紛詢問，到底要怎麼撈通訊錄的名單呢？當時的官方說法是，根本不提供這個 API。但是像是 flickr 的 friends finder 就很明顯有內部的 api 可以使用，也因此被不少人詬病說開放只開一半。

但是這方面的需求始終不少，所以很多人都用一些旁門左道的方式來撈 - 比方說把使用者的寄信匣中的收件人撈一次，可以得到類似通訊錄的效果。

現在開始終於不用走這些旁門左道啦。今天看到，Yahoo Addressbook 終於也開放了 API 可以讀取。以後如果要讓 user 互相匯入匯出使用者資料就方便多囉。

雖然是這樣，但是公告上面每天 5000 個 queries 還是實在有點小氣。大一點的網站，像是 LinkedIn 提供的功能，每個小時就不只 5000 個 queries 了吧？不過雖然小氣了點，至少隔了一年多 API 總是開出來了，也算是踏出了好的開始啊。

原始 blog post 在這邊。

Amazon EC2 提供更多 instance type

2008-05-30T18:55:00.002+08:00

今天看到消息，Amazon EC2 已經開始提供兩個新的 instance type，給 CPU 需求量較大的人使用。新的 instance type 分別是：

$0.2/hour，1.7G ram，5 個 EC2 computing units，32bit platform
$0.8/hour，7G ram，20 個 EC2 computing units，64bit platform

如果 application 是 CPU-bound 的話，也許新種的 instance type 會比較合用。不過我倒是比較希望看到，只要 $0.05/hour 的 mini-instance，這樣對 prototyping 比較合適 :p

Anyway，EC2 網站上也已經公告新的 instance type 了。

Yahoo 正式回應 Icahn 的公開信

2008-05-16T13:58:00.005+08:00

好戲果然就應該連播不停...

昨晚 Icahn 發表公開信，表明要發動 proxy battle 撤換 Yahoo 董事會以後，不到 12 小時，Yahoo 董事長 Roy Bostock 也發了正式的回應。

因為 Icahn 擺明他的目標就是要讓 Yahoo 重回談判桌跟微軟協商，Roy Bostock 在信中也指出，

「請容我提醒你，『現在』並沒有微軟、或是其他公司提出的購併提案。」

「你準備強迫 Yahoo 賣給一個前求婚者，而這家公司已經公開宣稱他們『繼續前行』。我們並不相信這符合 Yahoo 股東的利益。」

信中除了辯解和微軟協商的過程，表示雅虎並沒有一開始就拒人於千里之外以外，也不忘記強調，

「Yahoo 目前的十人董事會，包括 CEO 楊致遠，仍然是最能夠讓 Yahoo 股東權益最佳化的團隊。」

Bostock 為董事會的決策辯護是可以理解的。至於賣給微軟是對還是錯？這種問題當然沒有答案。Icahn 當然可以藉著逼使雅虎賣給微軟大賺一票，但是對楊致遠和 David Filo 來說則是情何以堪。但是，感情和面子是不能夠在資本市場上說服投資人的。雅虎過去四年的股價曲線實在不好，現在的董事會要怎麼讓投資人相信，雅虎可以憑藉一己之力力挽狂瀾，這才是當務之急的重點。

好戲連篇。我們就等著看這段，彷如 Oracle 和 BEA Systems 重演的戲碼吧。

[註] Bostock 公開回應的全文可以在這邊看到。我照引如下。

May 15, 2008
Dear Mr. Icahn:
We are in receipt of your letter with regard to your intention to seek control of Yahoo!'s board of directors.
Unfortunately, your letter reflects a significant misunderstanding of the facts about the Microsoft proposal and the diligence with which our board evaluated and responded to that proposal. A fair-minded review of the factual record leads to one conclusion: that Yahoo!'s ten-member board, comprised of nine independent directors along with Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang, remains the best and most qualified group to maximize value for all Yahoo! stockholders.
Conversely, we do not believe it is in the best interests of Yahoo! stockholders to allow you and your hand-picked nominees to take control of Yahoo! for the express purpose of trying to force a sale of Yahoo! to a formerly interested buyer who has publicly stated that they have moved on. Please may I remind you that there is currently no acquisition offer on the table from that company or any other party. That said, we have been crystal clear in our stance that we have been and remain willing to consider any proposal from any party including Microsoft if it offers our stockholders full and certain value.
From the beginning of the process with Microsoft, Yahoo!'s independent directors focused on one central goal: how best to maximize stockholder value. At all times directing this process, Yahoo!'s independent directors carefully considered Microsoft's initial unsolicited proposal, which was at the time valued at $31 per share. After considering input from its financial advisers the board unanimously concluded that Microsoft's proposal significantly undervalued Yahoo! and was, therefore, not in the best interests of the company or our stockholders. While we rejected this offer publicly on February 11, 2008, we could not have been more clear in that communication and in every subsequent communication, both public and private, that we were and are willing to enter into any transaction that would maximize value for stockholders and provide them certainty of value.
The record of our efforts to engage Microsoft in meaningful discussions is unequivocal. Following receipt of Microsoft's proposal on January 31, our board of directors has met over twenty times to review Microsoft's proposal and Yahoo!'s other strategic alternatives. Throughout this process our board kept an open mind and an open ear. Our independent directors met with several of our largest stockholders to solicit their views and to make it clear that Yahoo!'s independent board is fully committed to maximizing stockholder value. In addition, at the direction of our board, our management team met with many of our investors to provide insight into Yahoo!'s strategy and views on value.
Our board's openness also extended to Microsoft. Without reciting all of the contacts between us and between our advisers, the senior-most management of Yahoo! and Microsoft and the companies' respective financial advisers spoke on numerous occasions and met in person seven times. During those meetings, Yahoo! discussed its strategic objectives in search and display advertising monetization, its perspectives on operating strategy and integration in a transaction with Microsoft, its perspectives on transaction synergies, and other non-price deal terms. Because certainty of closing is a critical issue, we sought to understand Microsoft's thinking with regard to the regulatory issues associated with a potential transaction. In fact, at the board's direction, our lawyers on March 28 asked for additional information in this regard, information which was never forthcoming.
On April 15th, a meeting was held at Yahoo!'s request. At that meeting, which included our respective financial advisors, we made clear, once again, that we were open to a transaction with Microsoft. During those discussions, Yahoo! made a detailed presentation of its strategic and financial plan, its thoughts on integration and its view with respect to the potential synergies that could be achieved in a transaction, essentially laying the foundation for Microsoft to understand--and respond to--our board's conclusion that Microsoft's offer substantially undervalued the company. Following that meeting we also provided to Microsoft a list of key non-price deal terms that our board believed were critical items to be addressed in a deal to provide reasonable protections for our stockholders.
Throughout this period, Microsoft continued to state that it would not raise its offer, and even suggested that it could lower it.
Despite this failure by Microsoft to respond in any substantive way to any of Yahoo!'s requests, on May 2nd, the same day we first learned of Microsoft's apparent willingness to increase its proposal to $33 (although this oral "offer" was never delivered in writing and did not include details of a cash/stock mix), our board determined to continue discussions, instructing Jerry Yang to indicate to Microsoft that we would be prepared to enter into a transaction that valued Yahoo! at $37 per share and that provided reasonable certainty of value and certainty of closing. This was communicated to Microsoft in-person at a meeting in Seattle on May 3rd. With Microsoft's offer at $33 and Yahoo!'s counter-proposal at $37, Microsoft elected, within hours, to walk away from the negotiating table and informed us that they were "moving on," having never engaged further on price or any of the key non-price deal terms.
In short, Yahoo!'s board was at every point in this process prepared to enter into a transaction with Microsoft that would maximize stockholder value--and included certainty of value and closing. What Yahoo!'s independent board refused to do was to allow control of this company to be acquired for less than its full value.
That brings us to today. Our business is performing well as evidenced by our first quarter results. As we have publicly stated, our board continues to actively and expeditiously explore strategic alternatives to maximize stockholder value. None of the alternatives we are considering would preclude us from entering into a transaction with Microsoft or any other party.
We continue to believe that Yahoo!'s current board has the independence, the knowledge, and the commitment to navigate the Company through the rapidly changing Internet environment and to deliver value for Yahoo! and its stockholders.
We look forward to a productive dialogue.
Very truly yours,
Roy Bostock
Chairman of the Board

鉅子 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了

2008-05-16T00:36:00.007+08:00

雖然最近忙到翻掉，但是看到這麼戲劇性的東西，還是要寫一下當紀念的 :p

就在 Steve Ballmer 說微軟決定撤回對 Yahoo 的併購案之後，今晚 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了，發表了一封公開信。這位老兄好怒啊。他形容雅虎董事會

「躲在管理階層過度樂觀的財務預測後面，十分不負責任。」

他也說，

「微軟的提案十分慷慨，對雅虎的估價比公開求婚的前一天還要高出 72%。拒絕這個提議顯然是非常不理智的。」

實力雄厚的 Carl Icahn，除了開罵以外，也擺明他不是只有一張嘴而已。公開信中聲稱，他已經花了十三億美金買了雅虎五千九百萬股 (大約佔雅虎 4% 股權)。而且他正在向美國聯邦交易委員會提出申請，希望得到反托拉斯的許可，以便買下價值二十五億美金的雅虎股權 (大約 8% 左右)。

Icahn 表示不只贊成微軟的購併案，而且也打算提案撤換雅虎的董事會 - 他已經公開提了一個十人名單，希望能夠在七月三號的雅虎股東年會上面，取得多數董事席位。十人都是赫赫有名，除了他自己以外，還包括：

網路創業傳奇人物 Mark Cuban
Viacom 創辦人 Frank Biondi Jr.
New Line Cenima 的 CEO Robert Shaye
創投家 Adam Dell。啥？你不認識他？那你至少該認得他哥哥 Michael Dell 吧？

Carl Icahn 這些舉動的背後，和微軟的 Steve Ballmer 有沒有什麼默契或是私下的合作，是很耐人尋味的。不過這是楊致遠和雅虎董事會要擔心的事情了。我們只要負責看連續劇看不到的好戲就好了啊！ XD

話說回來，楊致遠接任 CEO 以後，風波總是不斷。他能夠有時間精力來做好公司重整的工作嗎？我很懷疑。光是應付微軟大巨獸想必就已經筋疲力竭了。現在又來一個 Carl Icahn，恐怕難得有一夜好眠了...

[註] Carl Icahn 是具有傳奇色彩的投資人。他以爭取股東權益聞名，令許多上市公司老闆聞之色變。最近的事蹟是投資摩托羅拉事件。他所投資的公司，通常伴隨著大規模的重整，包括經營階層的重新洗牌與裁員。
[註二] 公開信的全文在這裡可以看到。我照引如下：

SECURITY HOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT AND OTHER DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE SOLICITATION OF PROXIES BY Carl C. Icahn AND HIS AFFILIATES FROM THE STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. FOR USE AT ITS ANNUAL MEETING, WHEN AND IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION RELATING TO THE PARTICIPANTS IN ANY SUCH PROXY SOLICITATION. WHEN AND IF COMPLETED, A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND A FORM OF PROXY WILL BE MAILED TO STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT NO CHARGE AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'S WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SEC.GOV. INFORMATION RELATING TO THE POTENTIAL PARTICIPANTS IN A POTENTIAL PROXY SOLICITATION IS CONTAINED IN EXHIBIT 1 TO THE SCHEDULE 14A BEING FILED TODAY WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
                                Carl C. Icahn
                           ICAHN CAPITAL LP
                     767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
                          New York, NY 10153

May 15, 2008

Roy Bostock
Chairman
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Mr. Bostock:
It is clear to me that the board of directors of Yahoo has acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders and Microsoft. It is quite obvious that Microsoft's bid of $33 per share is a superior alternative to Yahoo's prospects on a standalone basis. I am perplexed by the board's actions. It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts. It is unconscionable that you have not allowed your shareholders to choose to accept an offer that represented a 72% premium over Yahoo's closing price of $19.18 on the day before the initial Microsoft offer. I and many of your shareholders strongly believe that a combination between Yahoo and Microsoft would form a dynamic company and more importantly would be a force strong enough to compete with Google on the Internet.
During the past week, a number of shareholders have asked me to lead a proxy fight to attempt to remove the current board and to establish a new board which would attempt to negotiate a successful merger with Microsoft, something that in my opinion the current board has completely botched. I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies. I have therefore taken the following actions: (1) during the last 10 days, I have purchased approximately 59 million shares and share-equivalents of Yahoo; (2) I have formed a 10-person slate which will stand for election against the current board; and (3) I have sought antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to acquire up to approximately $2.5 billion worth of Yahoo stock. The biographies of the members of our slate are attached to this letter. A more formal notification is being delivered today to Yahoo under separate cover.
While it is my understanding that you do not intend to enter into any transaction that would impede a Microsoft-Yahoo merger, I am concerned that in several recent press releases you stated that you intend to pursue certain "strategic alternatives". I therefore hope and trust that if there is any question that these "strategic alternatives" might in any way impede a future Microsoft merger you will at the very least allow shareholders to opine on them before embarking on such a transaction.
I sincerely hope you heed the wishes of your shareholders and move expeditiously to negotiate a merger with Microsoft, thereby making a proxy fight unnecessary.
    Sincerely yours,

CARL C. ICAHN

                          SLATE BIOGRAPHIES
Lucian A. Bebchuk
Lucian Bebchuk is the William J. Friedman and Alicia Townsend Friedman Professor of Law, Economics, and Finance and Director of the Program on Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Bebchuk is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Inaugural Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Network. Trained in both law and economics, Bebchuk holds an LL.M. and S.J.D. from Harvard Law School and an M.A. and Ph.D in Economics from the Harvard Economics Department. He joined the Harvard Law School faculty in 1986 as an assistant professor, becoming a full professor in 1988, and the Friedman Professor of Law, Economics and Finance in 1998. Bebchuk has written extensively on corporate governance, corporate control, and corporate transactions. He has published more than seventy research articles in academic journals in law, economics, and finance. Upon electing him to membership in 2000, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences cited him as "[o]ne of the nation's leading scholars of law and economics," who "has made major contribution to the study of corporate control, governance, and insolvency." He is the 2007-2008 President of the American Law and Economics Association, and a former chair of the Business Association Section of the American Association of Law Teachers. Bebchuk's recent writings include Pay without Performance: the Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation (Harvard University Press, 2004, co-authored with Jesse Fried), "The Case for Increasing Shareholder Power" (Harvard Law Review, 2005), "The Costs of Entrenched Boards" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, co-authored with Alma Cohen), and "The Myth of the Shareholder Franchise" (Virginia Law Review, 2007). Bebchuk has been a frequent contributor to policy making and public discourse in the corporate governance area. He has appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, the House Committee of Financial Services, and the SEC. He has published many op-ed pieces, including in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He was included in the list of "100 most influential people in finance" of Treasury & Risk Management and the list of "100 most influential players in corporate governance" of Directorship magazine.
Frank J. Biondi, Jr.
Since March 1999, Mr. Biondi has served as Senior Managing Director of WaterView Advisors LLC, an investment advisor organization. From April 1996 to November 1998, Mr. Biondi served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Studios, Inc. From July 1987 to January 1996, Mr. Biondi served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Viacom, Inc. Mr. Biondi is a director of Amgen Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., Hasbro, Inc., The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Seagate Technology. Mr. Biondi is a graduate of Princeton University and earned a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard University.
John H. Chapple
John Chapple is President of Hawkeye Investments LLC, a privately-owned equity firm investing primarily in telecommunications and real estate ventures frequently working in conjunction with Rally Capital LLC. Prior to forming Hawkeye, John Chapple worked to organize Nextel Partners, a provider of digital wireless services in mid-size and smaller markets throughout the U.S. He became the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Nextel Partners and its subsidiaries in August of 1998. Nextel Partners went public in February 2000 and was traded on the NASDAQ Exchange. In June 2006, the company was purchased by Sprint Communications. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. Chapple was the President and Chief Operating Officer for Orca Bay Sports and Entertainment in Vancouver, B.C. During Mr. Chapple's tenure, Orca Bay owned and operated Vancouver's National Basketball Association and National Hockey League sports franchises in addition to the General Motors Place sports arena and retail interests. From 1988 to 1995, he served as Executive Vice President of Operations for McCaw Cellular Communications and subsequently AT&T Wireless Services following the merger of those companies. From 1978 to 1983, he served on the senior management team of Rogers Cablesystems before moving to American Cablesystems as Senior Vice President of Operations from 1983 to 1988. Mr. Chapple, a graduate of Syracuse University and Harvard University's Advanced Management Program, has 26 years of experience in the cable television and wireless communications industries. Mr. Chapple is the past Chairman of Cellular One Group and CTIA-The Wireless Association, past Vice-Chairman of the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association and has been on the Board of Governors of the NHL and NBA. Mr. Chapple serves on the Syracuse University Board of Trustees currently as Chairman and the Advisory Board for the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. He is also on the Board of Directors of Cbeyond, Inc., a publicly traded Atlanta-based integrated service telephony company; Seamobile Enterprises, a privately held company providing integrated wireless services at sea; Telesphere, a privately held VOIP (voice over internet protocol) company based in Phoenix, Arizona; and on the advisory boards of Diamond Castle Holdings, LLC, a private equity firm based in New York City and the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs at University of Washington.
Mark Cuban
Since early 2000, Mr. Cuban has been the majority and controlling owner of the National Basketball Association franchise, the Dallas Mavericks. In 2001, Mr. Cuban co-founded HDNet, an all high-definition television network on DIRECTV that broadcasts high-definition sports, movies and other entertainment. Prior to his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks, Mr. Cuban co- founded Broadcast.com in 1995 and served as its Chairman of the Board until it was sold to Yahoo! in July of 1999. Before Broadcast.com, Mr. Cuban co-founded MicroSolutions, a national systems integrator, in 1983, which was later sold to CompuServe Corporation in 1990. Mr. Cuban is an active investor in cutting- edge technologies and various industries, including the entertainment industry.
Adam Dell
Since January 2000, Mr. Dell has served as the Managing General Partner of Impact Venture Partners, a venture capital firm focused on information technology investments. He also serves as Managing Director at Steelpoint Capital Partners, a private equity firm with offices in New York and California. From October 1998 to January 2000, Mr. Dell was a Senior Associate and subsequently a Partner with Crosspoint Venture Partners in Northern California. From July 1997 to August 1998, he was a Senior Associate with Enterprise Partners in Southern California. From January 1996 to June 1997 Mr. Dell was associated with the law firm of Winstead Sechrest & Minick, in Austin, Texas, where he practiced corporate law. Mr. Dell's investments include: Buzzsaw (which was acquired by Autodesk), HotJobs (which was acquired by Yahoo!) and Connectify (which was acquired by Kana Software). Mr. Dell has been a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. In addition, Mr. Dell currently serves on the boards of directors of the Santa Fe Institute, MessageOne and OpenTable. He also teaches a course at the Columbia Business School on business, technology and innovation and is a contributing columnist to the technology publication, Business 2.0. Mr. Dell received a J.D. from University of Texas and a B.A. from Tulane University.
Carl C. Icahn
Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and a director of Starfire Holding Corporation, a privately-held holding company, and chairman of the board and a director of various subsidiaries of Starfire, since 1984. Since August 2007, through his position as Chief Executive Officer of Icahn Capital LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P., and certain related entities, Mr. Icahn's principal occupation is managing private investment funds, including Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund II L.P. and Icahn Partners Master Fund III L.P. Prior to August 2007, Mr. Icahn conducted this occupation through his entities CCI Onshore Corp. and CCI Offshore Corp since September 2004. Since November 1990, Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. Icahn Enterprises L.P. is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Mr. Icahn was chairman of the board and president of Icahn & Co., Inc., a registered broker- dealer and a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, from 1968 to 2005. Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and as a director of American Railcar Industries, Inc., a company that is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing covered hopper and tank railcars, since 1994. From October 1998 through May 2004, Mr. Icahn was the president and a director of Stratosphere Corporation, the owner and operator of the Stratosphere Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which, until February 2008, was a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P. From September 2000 to February 2007, Mr. Icahn served as the chairman of the board of GB Holdings, Inc., which owned an interest in Atlantic Coast Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of The Sands casino in Atlantic City until November 2006. Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board and a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. Mr. Icahn has served as a Director of Cadus Corporation, a company engaged in the ownership and licensing of yeast-based drug discovery technologies since July 1993. In May 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of Blockbuster Inc., a provider of in-home movie rental and game entertainment. In October 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of WestPoint International, Inc., a manufacturer of bed and bath home fashion products. In September 2006, Mr. Icahn became a director of ImClone Systems Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, and since October 2006 has been the chairman of the board of ImClone. In August 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company, and since September 2007 has been the chairman of the board of WCI. In December 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products, and since January 2008 has been the chairman of the board of Federal-Mogul. In April 2008, Mr. Icahn became a director of Motricity, Inc., a privately-held company that provides mobile content services and solutions. Mr. Icahn received his B.A. from Princeton University.
Keith A. Meister
Since March 2006, Keith Meister has served as Principal Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P., a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Since November 2004, Mr. Meister has been a Managing Director of Icahn Capital LP, the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages third party private investment funds. Since June 2002, Mr. Meister has served as senior investment analyst of High River Limited Partnership, an entity primarily engaged in the business of holding and investing in securities. Mr. Meister also serves on the boards of directors of the following companies: XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications company; WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company; Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products; and Motorola, Inc., a mobile communications company. With respect to each company mentioned above, Carl C. Icahn, directly or indirectly, either (i) controls such company or (ii) has an interest in such company through the ownership of securities. Mr. Meister received an A.B. in government, cum laude, from Harvard College in 1995.
Edward H. Meyer
Mr. Meyer serves as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Road Advisors, Inc., an investment management company. From 1970 to 2006, he served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Grey Global Group, Inc., a multi-billion dollar global advertising and marketing agency. Mr. Meyer serves as a Director of Harman International Industries, Inc., Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc., National CineMedia, Inc. and NRDC Acquisition Corp. Mr. Meyer holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.
Brian S. Posner
Brian S. Posner is a private investor. From 2005 through March 2008, he served as Chief Executive Officer and co-Chief Investment Officer of ClearBridge Advisors LLC (and its predecessor company, CAM North America), an asset management company based in New York with approximately $90 billion in assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of Legg Mason Inc. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors, he was a co-Founder and the Managing Partner of Hygrove Partners LLC, a hedge fund company that was formed in 2000. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors and Hygrove Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager and an Analyst, first at Fidelity Investments from 1987 to 1996 and then at Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management from 1997 to 1999. At Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management he was a Managing Director and served as the Senior Investment Manager of the Value Equity Group, co-Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income Fund, and Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Institutional Value Fund and the Warburg Pincus Trust, Growth and Income Fund. Prior to the acquisition of Warburg Pincus Asset Management ("WPAM") by Credit Suisse Asset Management in July 1999, he was co-Chief Investment Officer, Director of Research, Chairman of the Global Asset Allocation Committee, and a member of the Executive Operating Committee at WPAM. At Fidelity Investments, he was the Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Equity Income II Fund from 1992 to 1996 and the Fidelity Value Fund from 1990 to 1992. He also managed the Select Life Insurance, Select Property Casualty Insurance and Select Energy Portfolios. From 1987 to 1990, he was an Oil, Insurance, and Financial Services Analyst. From August 2000 to April 2003 he served on the Board of Directors for Sotheby's Holdings, Inc. He currently a member of the Board of Trustees at Northwestern University and the Board of Visitors for the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences at Northwestern University. Mr. Posner received his undergraduate degree in history from Northwestern University in 1983 and his M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1987.
Robert K. Shaye
Robert Shaye is Co-Chairman and Co-CEO of New Line Cinema. As the Founder of New Line Cinema and a filmmaker himself, Robert Shaye has spent more than 40 years developing and distributing films that reflect a wide array of cultural movements, creating new paradigms for the motion picture business, and most importantly, entertaining millions of moviegoers. Since he founded New Line in 1967, Shaye has guided the company's growth from a privately-held art film distributor to one of the entertainment industry's leading independent studios and a veritable box office force. He has been involved in such films as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Rush Hour, Austin Powers and Seven. A University of Michigan graduate with a degree in business administration and a J.D. degree from Columbia University Law School, Shaye is also a Fulbright Scholar, member of the New York State Bar, and serves on the Board of Trustees of the Motion Picture Pioneers, and the American Film Institute.

非官方的 Amazon EC2 persistent storage

2008-05-13T15:44:00.005+08:00

我還滿好奇的，NetApp 怎麼還沒倒啊？

大家都知道，Amazon 提供的 webservices 搭配起來可以多強多猛。EC2 + S3 + SQS + SimpleDB 簡直就是無敵。但是問題在 EC2 的 instance 上面，沒有可靠的儲存裝置可以使用。S3 雖然很保險，可是操作 S3 沒有辦法像操作 filesystem 那樣方便，而 S3 的 latency 也不允許一層 FUSE 的介面操作。

上個月 Amazon 公佈說，將來會開始支援 persistence storage 了。你可以動態要求任意大小的單位容量 - 小從 1 GB 大到 1TB - 而且還不限制單位數目。也就是說你可以輕輕鬆鬆要好幾個 1TB 的儲存單位，放置你想放的東西。還支援 snapshot 備分到 S3 上面，達到更強固的備分效果。Amazon 的 Jeff Barr 也在他們官方的 blog 上面貼了一篇簡單教學，告訴你應該怎麼操作。

聽起來很棒對不對？真的是很棒。可惜現在 API 還沒有正式上線。這段時間如果覺得需要 persistent storage 的人，就只能自己硬幹了。... 可是我沒想到這年頭還真的有人這麼熱血！XD

今天在這邊看到一篇文章，是一篇完整的 howto，用 DRBD、LVM、Heartbeat 等元素組出來一套建構在 EC2 上面的「persistent storage」。雖然說是 persistent 但是畢竟不如 Amazon 官方製作的一般，可以完全獨立於 EC2 instance 以外。但是大部分功能都已經很齊備了，諸如 failover、redundancy、snapshot 等功能一應俱全。雖然建構起來頗費工夫，但是對於已經需要上線運作 (換句話說沒空等 Amazon 官方 release 的 solution)、又很擔心資料完整性的人，倒是很適合的。

話說回來，等到 Amazon EC2 官方版的 persistent storage 上線以後，還有多少人要買 NetApp？XD 這年頭買 NetApp，根本已經完全不符合成本效益了。

基本功果然很重要...

2008-05-02T13:39:00.004+08:00

話說今天聽說一個跑了一陣子的 shell script 出了點問題，於是抽空跑去看了一下。沒想到看到的是這樣的東西 @_@

#!/bin/sh
mon=`date -d "-1 day" "+%m"`

if [ $mon = 01 ]; then
mon='Jan';
elif [ $mon = 02 ]; then
mon='Feb';
elif [ $mon = 03 ]; then
mon='Mar';
elif [ $mon = 04 ]; then
mon='Apr';
elif [ $mon = 05 ]; then
mon='Mar';
elif [ $mon = 06 ]; then
mon='Jun';
elif [ $mon = 07 ]; then
mon='Jul';
elif [ $mon = 08 ]; then
mon='Aug';
elif [ $mon = 09 ]; then
mon='Sep';
elif [ $mon = 10 ]; then
mon='Oct';
elif [ $mon = 11 ]; then
mon='Nov';
elif [ $mon = 12 ]; then
mon='Dec';
else exit;
fi

yesdate=`date -d "-1 day" "+%d/$mon/%Y"`

後面就是拿 $yesdate 繼續去跑 script 需要做的事情。當然，任何人都看的出來，問題就出在上面紅字的月份上面，把 May 打錯打成 Mar 了。

苦笑了一下，我把上面這一大段 script 改成：

yesdate=`date -d yesterday "+%d/%b/%Y"`

一行就好了。

本來的 script 難道不能 work 嗎？不是的，當然可以跑。只要把打錯字的地方修一下就好了。但是本來的作法又繁瑣又容易出錯。binutils date 本身就提供的功能何必算的這麼辛苦？

基本功，果然很重要。不管是哪個版本的 Unix，不熟 binutils 是很容易出包、或多走冤枉路的。

[Note] 這邊的 date 參數是給 GNU 版本的 date 吃，和 BSD family 的 date 不一樣。

SNG 車就可以紅線停車嗎 @_@

2008-04-30T16:08:00.002+08:00

我知道這是雞蛋裡挑骨頭，SNG 車臨時要找好的停車位來停放確實是不太可能的。但是我們一般市井小民也是會有急事，也有需要臨時停放的時候啊。為什麼 SNG 車就可以停紅線，我們停紅線就要被開單拖吊？@_@

今天經過仁愛路和杭州南路交叉口的時候，不知道這裡是不是有什麼事情，一堆 SNG 車和警察。

TVBS 和民視在立場上可能完全不同，但是紅線違規倒是非常合作的。

中天和東森當然也在附近啦。

中天和東森也是紅線停車喔。是真的，有圖有真相。

還有三立的 SNG 也在附近，不過藏的太遠了我懶得跑過去拍了...

商標終於下來了

2008-04-30T16:04:00.001+08:00

看來果然跟傳言差不多，USPTO 申請到核准差不多是半年...

據說專利申請更費時，不過這個就沒申請了，沒法子驗證速度到底有多快...

世界處處有溫情

2008-04-29T20:13:00.002+08:00

今天，本來想拿新的信用卡去展望會新資助一名兒童。填好授權書，傳真到展望會以後，打電話過去確認時，卻聽到我意想不到的答案。

「抱歉，我們現在國內的受助童都已經有資助人了呢。你要不要把款項改撥為助學金呢？」

稍微詢問以後才知道，原來展望會在國內只能資助四萬名受助童 (限額的原因我就沒多問了)。其他需要幫助的人們，展望會就只能用其餘的款項來協助。如果真的想等國內資助人的名額，可能得等一年半載才有名額空出呢。

聽到了雖然有些錯愕，但是還是很高興。原來台灣也不是這麼冷冰冰的地方，人間還是處處有溫情的。

520 之後，油電價一次漲足？

2008-04-20T16:33:00.004+08:00

每次聽到這種說法，我都忍不住想笑。

油電價漲足或許立意是良好的。因為他們「要消除民眾的預期心理」。不要讓民眾以為之後價格還會繼續漲。聽起來好像不錯。

但是問題在於，漲多少才是「漲足」？

大家都知道，這波通貨膨脹是因為原物料上漲開始引起的。各種基礎商品都在上漲的時候，所有相關的物料也都跟著上漲。不管是做麵包的麵粉、養豬的飼料、生產器械的金屬，或是用在運輸的油料，通通都漲。所以油電價當然也必須跟著漲。

但是問題來了。政府怎麼知道商品市場會漲到哪裡？如果他們不知道高點何在，又怎麼知道漲多少是「一次漲足」？

我還記得大約十年前，原油期貨一桶大約才 20 美金。那時候有些分析師認為，原油庫存不足，油價即將上漲。漲到哪裡？「大概是 $25 - $30 之間，」他說。少數分析師那時候說會漲到一桶 $50，被大家認為是不可能的「天價」。

現在呢？一桶破百不說，還漲到 $115 去了。誰知道高點在哪裡？

最近許多原物料期貨，包括穀物、貴重金屬都出現大幅回檔。因此商品期貨泡沫化的言論又開始發酵。但是大家沒想到的是，基礎商品的特性和一般商品不同。一般市場上，如果麵包缺貨，工廠只要多生產一些麵包拿來賣就好了。如果今天有什麼網路商機，幾個人租幾台電腦就可以開始做網路生意。但是如果今天石油不夠怎麼辦？鉛礦不夠怎麼辦？

你不可能憑空變兩桶石油出來，不是嗎？從探勘油礦、發現蘊藏，到實際開採出來的時間，一般預計是十五到二十年。包括鉛礦金礦等金屬，也多半如此。你覺得穀物生產會比金屬快嗎？反正多種一些就好了對不對？對不起，世界上沒辦法短時間產生這麼多可耕地。生產力的提升必須藉助品種改良才行。菲律賓的國際稻米研究組織估計，新品種的稻米從開始研究到可以商業量產，時間大約是十年到十五年。好像快不了多少，對不對？

那在商品還沒生產出來的時間內，會發生什麼事情？根據簡單的經濟學供需原理，大家會針對這些必須品爭相提高價格搶購。於是價格就會被不斷推高。

那麼，我們 520 以後要漲多少才是漲足？當然，技術上並不困難。原油現在一桶 $115 左右，你可以大幅高估，比方說拿一桶 $500 來估算，那大概就可以「確實的消除民眾預期心理」了。但是這種作法絕對會被批評為橫徵暴歛，而且對政治人物來說絕對是票房毒藥，是不太可能實行的。不過，捨此之外，有什麼其他估價方式可以「一次漲足」？我還真的滿好奇的。

到現在，我每次想到「520 之後，油電價一次漲足」這種說法，都還是會忍不住想笑。

達賴喇嘛為什麼支持奧運？

2008-04-20T15:56:00.006+08:00

前陣子就想寫，只是這陣子實在太忙。看到這種發言，不知情的人大概會以為達賴喇嘛不是鄉愿就是瘋子吧。

西藏出了這種事情，全世界都罵中共罵的要死，簡直是負面 PR 的極致表現。瞬時之間，奧運聖火成為過街老鼠人人喊打，各國領袖也都對是否參加奧運開幕躲躲閃閃避而不談，唯恐惹麻煩上身。

那為什麼達賴喇嘛居然還可以說，他支持北京政府辦奧運？為什麼他還要特別說他不追求西藏獨立？講難聽的，人家事不關己的都比你還激動、比你還替你的人民生氣了，你怎麼還一副慈悲為懷、中共打我左臉我右臉就貼給你打的樣子呢？

其實道理很簡單，因為達賴了解中共政權的處境。中共花了無數的時間，好不容易營造出中國從百餘年來屈辱的歷史中重新站起的形象。這股力量的巔峰，就是奧運的舉行。這種時候，中共領導人如果膽敢對西藏問題讓步，他的領導位子就很有可能動搖。達賴心中或許是希望獨立的，畢竟從歷史觀點來說，藏人和中原文化實在關係不深，只是從清朝以後就「隸屬」於中國罷了。但是西藏要怎麼獨立？中共和西藏流亡政府的領導人必然都理解，戰火絕對是有害無利。但是相同的，他們也知道如果西藏試圖獨立，那麼兵爭無法避免 - 即便中共領導人明明知道這對國家利益有損無益。因為如果他們坐視西藏獨立還不採取軍事行動，就無法面對國內的政治壓力。

這股政治壓力有多強、多不理性？只要看最近他們的反法示威、阻止人民去家樂福購物的情景就能夠理解了。而這種民族主義情緒的普及，從公安單位的默許也可以窺知一二。

請不要誤會，我並不是在替北京政權的領導人開脫，我也相信他們絕對不是茹素念經的善男信女。但是我想指出的是，即使他們心中知道使用暴力對國家利益有害，無論他們心裡有多不願意訴諸武力，但是只要西藏追求獨立，那麼武裝行動是必然的結果。同樣的，有任何阻撓奧運的障礙的話，他們也會不計代價的掃除─不管副作用有多猛烈。鎮壓西藏暴動只是一個最近的例子。再猛烈的副作用，對他們來說，都比不上喪失政權可怕。天安門事件就是前車可鑒啊。

達賴支持奧運、不追求藏獨的聲明，是不能夠被一般年輕藏人所理解的。但是這也是他有苦難言的地方。在現實環境底下，要怎麼追求人民利益的最大化，是很不容易的。要讓全民都可以體諒理解，更不容易。「民可使由之，不可使知之」，或許就是這樣吧。

Gmail uploader 好像很糟...

2008-04-10T01:01:00.003+08:00

今晚拿了 Google Email Uploader 想來把一些以前的信件往 Google Application 上面丟，沒想到跑起來慢的要死不說，居然還有這個 screenshot：

473 封信裡面舊友 829 個 error。這還滿強的嘛... @_@

flickr 開始支援影音了

2008-04-10T00:49:00.004+08:00

傳言已久的 flickr video 終於推出了。雖然如此，但是只允許 90 秒長度的限制、只有 pro member 能夠使用，加上沒有類似 jumpcut 編輯影片的功能，看來影響力十分有限。

但是對我來說，保存自製的 memorable videos 剛剛好合適。也許這才是 flickr 的用意吧。隨文附貼一個當年 HeatoN 小槍局逆轉、一人幹掉強敵 4k 一整隊的經典場面。大家可以看看影片撥放的效果。

另外，我抱怨已久的 flickr uploadr，也終於推出新版了，當然新的 uploadr 也支援影音。不過我還沒測試中文問題到底這版修好了沒... 試了這麼多版其實也沒什麼信心了 *_*

[Update] 看來 3.1 版終於修好了。

商務印書館要印行文淵閣四庫全書了

2008-04-04T00:43:00.002+08:00

機會難得，可惜價格不斐。

今天收到商務印書館的信，說是他們準備重印四庫全書。目前開放預購，預購期間到五月底為止。寶貝幫我打了打算盤，整套預約起來是 158 萬元。這價格可真不便宜，現在我是買不下去的。不過看到這種幾乎是 reprint 版本的，實在很心動啊... 雖然沒有標點符號看起來會很吃力，可是裡面許多典籍，市面上其他地方可再也找不到了呢。

有興趣的人可以到他們活動網頁看看，上面還有目錄以及第七冊第十冊內頁 pdf 檔，可以下載觀看。

預約不滿 20 套商務印書館就不能印了，想來他們辦這活動也沒什麼特別利潤可言。有能力又有興趣的朋友，就支持一套吧。

Amazon EC2 推新版，包含 static IP 和機房選擇

2008-03-28T01:21:00.002+08:00

Amazon EC2 確實便宜大碗，但是之前最為人所詬病的，就是必須用 CNAME 或是 dyndns 的方式來指定 domain name。今天收到信，現在 Amazon 推新版的 EC2 API，終於提供了 static IP 的功能，還讓人可以自由選擇自己的 instance 要開在哪個機房的 cloud 中。

雖然機房位置可以選的並不多，static IP 也只提供一組，不過已經是不小的進步了。

詳細資訊可以看：

市場期望的三通效應，恐怕要失望了

2008-03-26T00:05:00.007+08:00

至少是暫時失望的。

馬英九當選了，股市紅盤慶祝，外資買股瘋狂。翻開報紙，股民一片歡欣雀躍，許多人說，「不怕套牢，反正現在的套不是套，台股要等著上萬點了！」

(假想一下可能的對話...)

真的是這樣嗎？為什麼台股要上萬點了？

「因為兩岸要三通了啊。」

那為什麼三通以後，台股就會上萬點？

「你好笨喔，我跟你說啦，等我們跟大陸三通以後，大陸的觀光客都會來，然後台灣的企業都可以過去投資，對台灣當然是好的啦。台灣大賺其錢以後，台股不上萬點也難哪！」

那為什麼大陸願意跟我們三通？就算是三通以後，大陸的觀光客跑來的話，我們有哪些旅遊景點招待他們？我們交通幹線可以容納大量的觀光客嗎？如果容納不下，來的觀光客數目受到限制的話，對經濟又有什麼幫助呢？

「...」(默然以對)

請不要誤會，我不是反對三通。我也覺得三通早通比晚通好。但是，大陸人又不是笨蛋，憑什麼你說不通就不通，你說通就馬上通？為什麼李登輝、陳水扁加起來讓大陸吃了十二年的閉門羹，現在大陸卻要做這個球給馬英九？大陸政府也不是不知道台灣在等著賺他們的錢，幹嘛要把錢送給台灣賺，不順勢多凹一些政治籌碼？

那如果三通刺激台灣經濟之路不會那麼順遂的話，股市要怎麼瞬間飛躍萬點大關？更不用說即使三通以後，觀光客來台灣的交通住宿是否能夠容納等配套問題了。

[註] 今天寫這篇，是因為收到 stealth 轉寄一篇陶冬寫的文章。我查了一下，原文應該出自這裡。不過大陸網站在台灣看難免比較慢，我把原文照引如下。基本上的立論我是很同意的：台灣對三通和三通所造成的經濟前景太樂觀了些。

台灣市場對總統選舉過度樂觀

　　經濟與政治難分家，在兩岸關係上更是如此。

　　台灣民眾矚目於三月二十二日的總統大選，希望政局的改變，能夠帶來經濟的轉運，帶來兩岸關係的轉機。台灣經濟的轉型，以及最終收入與就業的改善，很大程度上取決於兩岸關係能否走出死胡同。今年一月立委選舉後的股市急升，反映出市場求變的心態和對轉型的信心；三通股一馬當先，則反映市場對兩岸關係迅速改善充滿期望。

　　總統府易主，是對過去八年行政政策的一種了結，可能帶來新的思維、新的政策、新的希望。如果馬英九當選，更會帶來近年罕見的行政、立法上的一致，無疑有利於新政策的推出、執行。

　　無論馬英九還是謝長廷當選，筆者認為兩岸關係都會揭開新的一頁。台灣海峽兩岸即使沒有蜜月期，也會有一個觀察期、適應期，雙方在觀望中調整，在調整中試探，在試探中適應。「聽其言、觀其行」，應該是北京的既定立場。適當地伸出橄欖枝，是自然的，但是指望北京熱烈擁抱台北新政權，則是天真的、不現實的。其實北京對馬英九並不信任。馬英九並非連戰，與中國既無淵源，又少共鳴，其過去之所言、所行，令北京有一種說不清的不安。謝長廷也非陳水扁，北京對謝的務實求變是有期待的，但是以「觀其行」起勢也在所難免——陳水扁當初也曾承諾「四不一沒有」。

　　世界上沒有免費的午餐。台灣如果認為只要自己願意打開大門，大陸便會奉上黃金白銀，則未免過於天真。在北京眼裡，三通在二十年前是橄欖枝，十年前意味著通商，今天則等於送錢。兩岸之間長期進行著單向交流，台灣源源不斷地向大陸輸送著資金、技術、人才——心甘情願地，並從中獲利。

　　今天所謂三通，是大陸資金、遊客進入台灣，基本上是大陸給台灣實惠，為台灣經濟輸血。這層互動的主導者是中國政府，而非大陸的企業或遊客，很難不打上政治的烙印。三通是大陸的籌碼，經濟上的實惠必然和政治上的互動聯繫在一起，北京希望以此建立起兩岸之間長期的、不可逆轉的良性互動和政治穩定。在沒有做到這一點前，打雷估計多過下雨，大方針易定，細節落實則可能大不易。

　　說到細節，台灣政府中瞭解大陸、瞭解北京政府的人才奇缺。多少年來政府之間缺少起碼的溝通渠道，對於不同政府部門背後的利益淵源更是知之甚少。如此情況下，台灣與大陸打交道，便好像在黑屋內亂摸，不得要領。筆者相信，政府之間關於細節的談判，時間會拖得很長，一夜間成事更是不可能的。

　　香港於一九九七年回歸，真正受惠於「中國因素」則是二○○三年以後的事，是在香港歷經ＳＡＲＳ和政治危機之後的事。港府官員經常私下抱怨，與北京高官手握了，影照了，最高官員滿口表示合作，但是到了具體部門，香港官員連拍哪一個政府的門都不清楚，至於不同部門之間的利益糾葛則更是一無所知。換言之，上層的承諾難以落實到部門，至於項目細節的推進更是舉步維艱。港府官員至少花了五～六年時間，才摸出與北京衙門打交道的路數、竅門，雙方合作才變得順利。兩岸官場上所需要相互摸索的時間，只會更長不會更短。

　　台灣的金融業並不發達，大陸企業不會大規模利用台灣的資本平台。坊間寄以厚望的大陸資金大量湧入，筆者認為也難在近期成事。大陸的ＱＤＩＩ進入某市場前，必須與當地政府簽訂條約，在台灣主權定位這個問題上有繞不開的障礙，何況中國資金目前關心的是美歐市場。無論是主權基金還是巨型國企，筆者看不到它們入主台灣公司的強烈興趣。台灣缺少大陸資金最感興趣的要素——資源、金融、技術、品牌。

　　更重要的是，兩岸關係並不穩定，總統官邸的主人四年一選，天空的顏色隨時可能由藍變綠，大陸投資隨時可能因變天而進退兩難，因此在目前環境下很難指望中國政府在針對台灣的大型併購上大力倡導、積極推動。當然不排除個人熱錢流入台灣房地產，不過這也未必是短期的事。

　　比較現實的是旅遊業。台北小吃、故宮博物館、日月潭，對大陸遊客都有吸引力。不過除此之外的景點選擇好像並不多。台灣沒有香港的繁華塵囂、布吉的海灘陽光、巴黎的文化情調，台北之外的城市與大陸二、三線城市相比其實差別不大。

台灣目前每日允許一千名大陸遊客入境，一年的上限為卅六萬五千人，這與香港、澳門每年各自接納二千萬以上大陸人士相比，實有天壤之差。以目前的入境上限，大陸遊客對台灣ＧＤＰ的真正拉動，不會超過○'○五％。即使上限向上加十倍，對經濟的實質貢獻其實也十分有限。

　　面對大陸遊客入台的商機，台灣似乎炒作多、想像多，不過實際動作並不多。旅遊業要做的不僅是建幾家酒店，而可能需要在旅遊服務業作許多功夫，要設立面向大陸遊客的購物中心，推出生態、海洋旅遊，打造充滿台灣風清的民俗節目。海洋公園、廣東道、星光大道的變化，折射出香港旅遊業在吸引大陸遊客上所作的努力。經濟轉型，不僅是政府立場上的改變，同時必須伴隨著民間的努力、調整和創新。

　　台灣這塊招牌必須珍惜，旅遊業的準備務必充分。第一步走得不好，口碑不佳，則以後步步受制，香港迪斯尼盲目自大，準備不足所產生的前車之鑑，不可不察。

　　三月二十二日可能是台灣經濟出現轉機的一日。但是，經濟轉型需要時間，更需要努力，三通實難一蹴而就。市場似乎將總統大選當成台灣經濟轉型的速效藥，股市更偷步向上。在筆者看來這種觀點過度樂觀，甚至有些天真。

新台幣兩天連升 4.4 角

2008-03-25T18:18:00.003+08:00

總統大選選完，台股開跳空慶祝行情是完全可以理解的。跳空開 524 實在太高於是逐漸殺低，也是可以理解的。外資匯入台灣導致外匯市場爆量也是可以理解的。

但是昨天先升 3.2 角，今天再升 1.2 角，兩天內連升 4.4 角，這會不會太兇悍了啊 @_@

圖片取自鉅亨網

聽說有的交易員會接到央行的關切電話，不過市場流言，總是聽過就算了。話說回來，新台幣這樣爆天量升值，雖然出口商會苦哈哈，不過對一般民眾來說，或許也可以稍抵一些輸入型通膨造成的影響吧。

不過，背負著這麼多內外資的期待，未來面對的國際市場又如此險惡，新政府能不能成功 deliver 競選承諾，倒是難說的很。看來蕭萬長，接下來幾年可不輕鬆了。

那消逝的精神氣蘊，哪裡去了？

2008-03-22T02:41:00.009+08:00

前些日子逛書店，買了本章詒和的「往事並不如煙」。早先我知道她的書很賣座，也聽說風評極佳。但是當初認為不合我的脾胃，未曾翻看就略過了。這次逛到，隨手翻閱，只覺得文筆清爽，十分流暢，寫的又是近代人物的事跡。於是買了回來，沒想到展卷便不能罷手...

當初看這本書的時候，只單純的認為是時代人物的側寫。沒想到在作者筆下，不只是刻劃出人物的背影，還有背影後面的時代，以及受到時代影響的各個人物的精神氣質。作者文筆無疑是極好的，不只記述著各人的事跡，還把人物特質和精神氣度都讓我們一覽無遺。文章要寫其人其事，並不如何為難，難就難在怎麼傳述其心其道。作者在自序中所說的，

「提筆的那一刻，才知道語言的無用，文字的無力。它們似乎永遠無法敘述出一個人內心的愛與樂、苦與仇。」

我相信絕對是肺腑之言。六個故事，絲絲入扣，緊密相連。篇篇讀來都令人垂淚嘆息。有時感動的叫人落淚，有時卻又驚懼的讓人心寒。蕩氣迴腸，斯是謂也！

很多人看完這本書，或是翻閱這本書的時候，得到的共同印象都是，章詒和勾勒出來的是「那個時代貴族的風範」。甚至這本書的牛津版，書名也叫「最後的貴族」。但是我看到的卻是，精神高潔的人怎麼遇上時代的動盪衝擊，以及在巨大威權的陰影之下，逐漸被消磨殆盡的氣質與氣蘊。不論是位高權重的史良、寧鳴而死的儲安平、閒逸風流的張伯駒、還是慷慨仗義的康同璧，每個人物都有獨特的氣魄，也在時代的巨變當中，或被迫扭曲變形，或一死以保氣節。這是時代的悲劇，但也是人性的光輝聖潔展露無遺的時刻。與其說這本書是在敘述貴族的生活，我更寧願說這是一本追慕前人情操風範、精神氣蘊的書。

我們看到，那消失了的精神氣蘊，彷彿就此不再出現。但是展卷讀來，他們鮮活的人格和情操又好像歷歷在目。中國大陸經歷了無數的運動和十年的文革，人物的精神氣質當不復存。但是台灣當年號稱是中華文化的保存者，可在國民黨的一黨專政之下，也容不得特異獨行的閒雲野鶴。兩岸之間，或許也是 1949 年以後又一次的國共合作吧。

所以說，不要以為，書中的慘狀只會出現在 1957 年以後的中國大陸。現在的台灣，隨著總統大選的逼近，人的精神氣質也越來越蕩然無存。你說我貪腐要出選舉奧步，我說你的支持者不是人。反對一中共同市場的就是支持貪污腐敗的綠軍，反對公投對目前執政黨失望的就是準備投降大陸的藍軍。在一片交相指責謾罵當中，我覺得國民黨和民進黨都越來越像共產黨了。

非友即敵，只要是批評我的就是敵軍陣營，先打成黑五類再說。

我為前人逝去的精神氣蘊嘆息不已，也對現在人格精神蕩然默然搖頭。什麼時候，我們才能夠重新見到，那屬於中國文人的，溫煦如玉的氣質？什麼時候，我們才能夠重新見到，那屬於中國士人的，清勝冰雪的情操？

我還抱著希望，雖然我在一片黑夜之中，還沒見著一絲曙光。

中西文化的差異在知識份子上的表現 - 看李遠哲、李敖、以及大學校長

2008-03-16T19:51:00.011+08:00

2000 年的李遠哲，以「向上提升」的呼籲成了陳水扁進入總統府的臨門一腳。

為什麼李遠哲能夠有這種號召力？為什麼一個學者的影響力這麼大？

2005 年四月六號，李敖在立法院質詢時，痛罵當時備詢的幾位大學校長，說他們沒有資格做第一流的知識份子。他用「在水肥裡面分贓」形容各個校長的不問世事。為什麼李敖可以這麼理直氣壯？又為什麼各個校長認為是李敖的不對，不應該出口罵人，紛紛表示無法忍受這種羞辱？

這些小節，雖然好像無傷大雅、不甚重要，但是又好像總有說不通的地方，常常縈繞在心頭難以索解。

讀書樂在偶有所得。今天我終於覺得對這一切，有了合理完美的解釋。根本原因都在中西文化的不同，呈現出來的不協調感。讓我試著把想法寫下來看看。

眾所周知，自古以來中國知識份子的使命就在於「經世致用」，儒家的最終使命也在於能行王道。孔子周遊列國，為的是行道；孟子也說，

「如枉道而從彼，何也？且子過矣！枉己者，未有能直人者也。」

道，是不能夠「枉」的。大儒顧炎武也說過，

「君子之為學，以明道也，以救世也。」

中國傳統是由學術指導政治，由政治指導學術是不被允許的。﹝北宋王荊公變法，自撰《三經新義》為科舉標準，飽受抨擊即為顯例。﹞從這個脈絡看來，李遠哲當時以他中研院院長、國內學術龍頭的身分，發表這種宣言，是有相當作用的。人民或許無法全部都感受到細膩深刻的傳統文化，但是古者遺風尚在，人民在混亂的時代，很自然會期待有知識份子的登高一呼，然後自動的起而相隨。於是 2000 年的臨門一腳，完全順理成章了。

而如果知識份子沒有辦法承擔世道的責任，在傳統文化是會被嚴厲譴責的。這也是為什麼魏晉南北在後代會被譏為「清談誤國」。明朝東林書院創辦人顧憲成也曾痛斥王陽明的徒子徒孫，說他們：

「水間林下，三三兩兩，相與講求性命，切磨德義，念頭全不在世道上。」[1]

明末顧允成則說的更直接：

「吾嘆夫今之講學者，恁是天崩地陷他也不管，只管講學。」[2]

2005 年李敖的質詢，也頗就有這樣的味道。他怒罵前台大校長陳維昭的時候，他說：

「你說台灣大學當年對殷海光教授不好，給他聘書卻不讓他上課；可是當法院傳你作證時，妳可以以台灣大學校長的身分站出來維護台灣大學當年被迫害的教授時，你卻不敢出席！... 為什麼該有道德勇氣的時候，你不敢站出來？ .... 今天陳校長已經做了十二年的臺大校長，在台灣社會風氣這麼壞的時候，你有沒有以學術領袖的地位出來說句公道話？你不肯講。你們埋頭做學術研究的時候，台灣大學的學術排名又如何？當教育部長亂搞時，你們幾個大學校長有沒有站出來說話？教育辦得不行時，你們應該要站出來！」[3]

這段話，不是和前面顧允成的話很像，足以互相輝映嗎？顧允成指責當時學者的話，和李敖罵大學校長的話語如出一轍。顯然是因為他們對學者有相同的期待！話鋒一轉，李敖繼續說到：

「我要告訴你們，人格偉大、敢跟政府對幹、敢拒絕教育部長、敢把我們良知的話散佈出來、敢到法庭作證，這些都是大學校長應該有的風骨。... 當年蔡元培在五四運動時，就是個校長，是個匹夫，但他能抵抗一個時代，不是嗎？你們這些校長有那麼好的學問，可是你們在人格上、在肩膀上太軟弱了。」[4]

這段話讀起來，不就是典型傳統社會對士人的期許嗎？對蔡元培的讚美也正是對傳統文化的褒獎！因為在傳統文化價值中，學術的尊嚴不容踐踏。「用之則行，舍之則藏」，如果不能行道的話，那麼也應該辭職明志，避免做個「小人儒」！

不過，既然李敖這樣大義凜然，那為甚麼各個大學校長聽了以後，還會不以為然，認為李敖羞辱太過，無法忍受？

這部份就涉及中西文化的不同。認真詳追起來，或許會涉及價值系統的根本差異。不過粗略的來說，西方文化自古以來，道德價值是憑依於宗教的。世界是由神所創造，那麼越能理解世界運作的奧妙越能榮耀神與讚美祂的偉大。社會對於科學家的期待，則在於他們完成專業本分，而非由他們完成其他社會使命。我們現今的大學校長，多半曾經留學海外。雖然對於西方文化未必體會十分深刻，但是多少應當受到這種價值系統的影響。這也是為什麼，當李敖理直氣壯怒目橫眉大罵的時候，校長們仍然會覺得自己受到委屈、李敖屈人太過了！

這並不是說誰對誰錯的問題。重點在從哪個價值觀看待。只是我們可以觀察出來，中國的傳統文化，在清朝末年受到刺激產生激變，激盪至今猶未平息。看李遠哲、李敖、和幾位大學校長身上的表現，也多少可以了解，這是我們仍然處在文化長時間過渡期會發生的現象。

那麼，要到哪一天，才會有新的價值體系在其中產生，而這新的文化價值體系又會是什麼樣子呢？

縈繞在心頭的問題，今天少了一個，又多了一個。

參考資料：
[1] 余英時，《知識人與中國文化的價值》，頁 185
[2] 同上
[3] 李敖，《李敖議壇哀思錄》，頁 178 - 179
[4] 同上，頁 180

微軟推出類似 Amazon SimpleDB 服務

2008-03-10T16:30:00.003+08:00

企業形象果然很重要啊...

今天看到一篇 blog post，是在講微軟推了新的服務來跟 Amazon 的 SimpleDB 打對台：SQL Server Data Services, SSDS。稍微看了幾眼，推的東西跟 SimpleDB 真的很像：他在背後綁著微軟 SQL Server ，前端開個 web service api 給你操作，讓你省 DBA 的功夫和金錢。

為什麼說企業形象很重要呢？

因為我發現那篇 blog post 是在 3/7 寫的。可是這幾天國內可都沒聽說什麼人在講這回事。別說其他人，你聽到微軟出這個 solution 會很振奮嗎？你會覺得微軟這個 solution 對你很有幫助、讓你很放心嗎？

SSDS 網頁上面並沒有標價，目前是 free beta。但是每個人聽到的第一個反應都是：「那微軟要收多少錢？」戒心十足。

企業形象果然是很重要的啊。

stealth 的總統選舉得票率估計

2008-03-06T03:11:00.003+08:00

強者 stealth 寫了一篇這屆總統選舉的得票數推估。寫的滿仔細的，也很有趣。除了對廢票數以及投票率我有點意見以外，其他倒是還好。文中假設馬謝得票比例約為六四分配，由此來推估選票結果，這部份就不知道和目前民調結果是否有差異了。

不過表格部分受限於 editgrid 好像沒有呈現的很好。建議要看詳細資料或是美觀版面的話還是抓 pdf 版本的好了 :p