Red Sox Reality Check

All-Stars Inside the Numbers

2009-07-10T20:57:00.002-04:00

Nobody said that statistics constitute the sole criteria for determining either value or selection to the All-Star team. Consider the following table:

WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) reflects the pitcher's ability to prevent baserunners from reaching. K/BB (strikeout to walk ratio) tends to predict future ERA even better than current ERA. More dominant pitchers tend to have low WHIP ratios and higher K/BB ratios.

Two of the above pitchers achieved All-Star selections on the 2009 American League squad. Which two? Pitcher A ties for the most innings, has the best K/BB ratio and an ERA sub 4. He doesn't make the team. Pitcher D with a K/BB ratio well under 2 and an ERA almost half a run higher does.

Pitcher A, Jon Lester.
Pitcher B, Josh Beckett.
Pitcher C, Brad Penny.
Pitcher D, Tim Wakefield.

There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain.

All-Star Sox

2009-07-05T14:18:00.002-04:00

Major League Baseball announced the All-Star selections today, an amalgam of selections among fans, players, and managers.

Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay got voted onto the team. Pedroia, the reigning MVP, checks in statistically behind Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill, but the feisty second baseman got the love. Bay, newly minted as a US citizen, gets the nod in left.

Player voting brought Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon to the AL pitching staff, and manager selection added Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield's selection is his first, during a remarkable career.

Wakefield finished third in Cy Young voting in 1995
He is the Red Sox career start leader.
Won ten games or more ten times.
MLB career 140th in wins
MLB active 7th in wins
71st all-time in strikeouts
35th active in adjusted ERA+
7th all-time in most hit batsmen
Has led the AL in both losses (15) and home runs allowed (35) in a season
On two World Series winners
Surrendered the walkoff homer in the ALCS championship game in 2003

Congratulations to the locals selected.

All-Star Break Ahead

2009-07-03T21:29:00.002-04:00

Baseball has the best of the All-Star games, although for me the game changed after interleague play. I'm not too concerned about how many Sox players get selected or not, although I'm sure that contractually some probably have All-Star bonus clauses. If you make ten million dollars a year, should you be rewarded additionally if you perform TO expectations? Hey, that's what contract negotiations represent.

All that acknowledged, the Sox should focus on playing good baseball into the break. A strong homestand would help keep Tampa and Toronto in the rearview mirror. The Yankees are always the Jason Voorhees of the AL; you can never eliminate them.

From an overall performance status, the 'best' players on the Sox have been Youkilis, Bay, Papelbon, and Beckett. A lot of players have exceeded expectations including Varitek, Green, and much of the bullpen. To an extent Jacoby Ellsbury has also improved, as he's no longer easily 'defeated' by the hard stuff inside.

What Sean Casey emphasized tonight reinforced the organizational goals - consistency, professionalism, and effort. Mark Kotsay's at bat in the bottom of the eighth illustrated the 'tough at bat', as he worked the count long enough so that he could get a hittable pitch.

Red Sox Nation has changed since 2004 and especially since 2007. The fans expect success and 'the breaks', as opposed to waiting for the "piano from the sky" to fall and land on them. Surely, it doesn't always work out; baseball's vicissitudes ensure surprises. But no longer a priori do we anticipate the worst outcome.

As I've said many times, every game brings you something unexpected, the leads lost or deficits overcome, heroics or errors, baseball genius and faux pas. Half the players running off the field with only two outs? Happened this week. A nine run lead squandered and a four run ninth inning deficit erased back-to-back? This week.

Have a pair of World Series victories lifted the sense of urgency for fans? While some might argue that interest remains maxed out, I believe that the 'performance anxiety' overhang really has changed. Some things don't change, the rivalries, the 'our boys' mentality, and the intensity within the ballpark. But to paraphrase the Southwest Airlines ad, "the angst? It's off."

Three Month Observations

2009-06-30T21:18:00.003-04:00

As we approach the All-Star break, maybe we can analyze the good, the bad, and the ugly about the 2009 Red Sox.

The Good.

Locking up Lester, Pedroia, and Lester was a key move by the Sox
The Sox seem to have the key ingredient (pitching) to deal with the tectonic shift away from performance-enhancing drugs toward more speed and defense
Jason Bay has proven himself to be an elite player, capable of beating up on the dogs and cats and the lions and tigers.
The Red Sox bullpen is the best in their modern era.
The front three of Beckett, Lester, and Penny give the Sox a chance to win 70 percent of their games...or more.
Nick Green has far outperformed expectations.
Jacoby Ellsbury continues to mature as a player, and is on pace to set a Red Sox stolen base record
Jason Varitek has maintained his defensive skills and had a mean reversion to offensive productivity, although June wasn't his best
Tim Wakefield, may he make the All-Star team, but maybe getting voted on by the fans would be best.
J.D. Drew is 21st in the AL in OPS. He's above Ian Kinsler, Adam Jones, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, and Carl Crawford to name just a few.
Terry Francona continues to be the Sox' version of Walter Alston.
Has ANYBODY caught Tim Wakefield better than George Kottaras?

The Bad.

Injuries are still out there. Mike Lowell has plenty of heart, but not enough hip. All of this makes the versatility of Kevin Youkilis even more critical.
Daisuke Matsuzaka's non-excellent WBC adventure has been the skunk at a garden party.
David Ortiz's first two months were beyond forgettable.
The Amica pitch zone shows that the umpiring isn't too special.
Julio Lugo's range suffered early, but to his credit, he hasn't been a distraction.

The Ugly.

Dustin Pedroia's haircut
John Henry and Mark Teixeira won't be bosom buddies.
The weather in June. Boston fans get three months of decent weather, except June fell off the map this year.

Second half musings.

Will the Sox be able to get another bat?
Clay Buchholz.
Where does Jed Lowrie fit into the picture? Is he better than Green now?
Can Big Papi return to a 20 HR, 90 RBI, .250 season?
If John Smoltz pitches like tonight, he will be a factor.
Tampa still makes me a little nervous.
Who will be next user outed?
My dream World Series? The Red Sox and the Giants. The Giants fans deserve it, and they've got the pitching.

And in the category of "you never see that", half the team runs off the field with only two outs in the bottom of the sixth. Well, almost three outs. It didn't take "Bull from Night Court" Masterson to get the final out.

Opportunity Knocks; Are We Ready?

2009-06-21T21:22:00.002-04:00

Baseball and life. Sometimes the season doesn't turn out the way you thought it would. As we approach the halfway point in the season, the Red Sox have the second best record in baseball. How the hell is that possible?

David Ortiz has only recently begun to hit, while the offensive core of the team, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia has fallen off a bit lately. The only players who have outperformed expectations offensively are Jason Bay and Nick Green. Jason Varitek had a great start, and now the jury has gone out offensively.

Among starting pitching, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny have overachieved, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have resumed their expected trajectory, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has suffered through any player's worst nightmare.

The obvious answer becomes the excellence of the bullpen. They have held leads, closed victories, and allowed the team to stay close in others. Recently, with short starts, the bullpen has shown a little fraying around the edges.

Management's overarching direction remains drafting and developing pitching, with bargain/risk oriented acquisitions like Penny and John Smoltz. The Sox have top-flight pitching prospects in Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly, and Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden are not far behind.

Unfortunately, the acquisition and training of the next generation of power hitters hasn't proven as consistent, making some nameless signings and/or power trade essential.

But we ask, the 2009 Sox, how good are they? In the post-steroid era, we're seeing a falloff in the overall speed and power throughout the game. Maybe the games haven't been quite as volatile, but I'm ready for a return to pitching and small ball, supplemented by an occasional three-run homer.

Keeping Faith

2009-06-20T20:06:00.002-04:00

The manager's job never gets any easier, arbitrating among egos, streaks, the vicissitudes of baseball, and personal problems that we will never know. What affects a player, illness or injury, frustration, depression, or personal problems?

How a player gets treated also depends on the alternatives? Consider the choices:

Jason Varitek versus George Kottaras
Daisuke Matsuzaka versus John Smoltz
Julio Lugo versus Nick Green
J.D. Drew versus Rocco Baldelli

Each pairing has a 'starter' paired against a challenger. Let's avoid Matsuzaka for last...

Jason Varitek handles the pitching staff and calling the game. His offense has exceeded last year's performance, but lately he too suffers from "the dwindles." His June numbers are .154/.298/.256/.554. Whatever he tried in April and May seems to have evaporated in June. His left-right statistical differential is huge. Nobody (as far as I know) screams, "sit the old man down". The alternative doesn't sound that attractive either.

Nick Green has simply supplanted Lugo at shortstop. Lugo played the role of Wally Pipp, except Green and DiMaggio's only commonality remains letter G in their last name. So far Lugo has played the good soldier, and even produced in light duty. Their potential replacement, Jed Lowrie, won't make anyone forget Cal Ripken either. In other words, the amplitude of the discussion stays low.

J.D. Drew has yet to emerge in his third Sox season. Season one brings memories of a grand slam against the Tribe in the postseason and a decent World Series. Last year, he excelled in June, but didn't make anybody forget Babe Ruth. Aside from the megabucks he earns, Drew doesn't incite passion among Sox fans. He hustles, keeps to himself, and again the alternative, either Rocco Baldelli or innumerable "not ready for prime time" minor leaguers doesn't solve the problem.

All of which brings us to Daisuke Matsuzaka. No monetary consideration comes into play. He has a no-trade clause, the only one on the team. Almost nobody can muster an argument for Matsuzaka, but I'd recommend they let him use his approach and let the chips fall. Viable alternatives enhance the 'difference' with Matsuzaka, because the Sox have choices:

Five man rotation with Beckett, Lester, Penny, Smoltz, and Wakefield
They have two additional starters that fans don't cringe at the possibility, Buchholz and Masterson, and another back burner possibility in Bowden.
The guy most likely not to have a month-to-month lease has become Brad Penny, who has quietly seen his value skyrocket in the past month. His ERA has fallen each month, his K/BB ratio looks good at 2, and his June ERA is 2.70.

We don't have to make excuses for Dice-K, who we know to be a tireless worker, whose biggest fault emerged as his loyalty to his company over The Nation. He could be injured or just mentally out of sorts. Let's not forget that he won 18 games last season amidst our "what have you done for me lately?" mantra.

Sox fans know that the "too much pitching" problem always works itself out via performance changes, injury, or other Acts of God. With that in mind, patience might sound corny, but the best answer.

Long but Exciting

2009-06-12T23:32:00.002-04:00

Not many thirteen inning baseball games can hold your attention, but the Sox-Phils marathon did tonight. The game had a number of highlights, twists, and turns, and hair-raising moments for the Hose.

John Lester became the first Sox left-hander to have three consecutive ten strikeout games. We're including Babe Ruth here, Mel Parnell, Bruce Hurst, Bill Lee, and Rogelio Moret, too. Lester's brilliance got lost in the shuffle.
Six Sox pitchers gave up five hits in thirteen innings.
Dustin Pedroia went 0-7.
David Ortiz played first, but won't win any Gold Gloves.
Nick Green made a pretty 6-3 double play against the speedy Jimmy Rollins.
Ramon Ramirez moved down the pecking order surrendering a ninth inning titanic game-tying homer to Ryan Howard. It happens.
Dave Roberts noted (correctly) that the Sox had lost momentum and energy; the Sox promptly rallied.
Justin Masterson surrendered (almost) the game-winning three run homer in the 12th. It was foul...by a hair.
The Sox pushed across three runs in the thirteenth, courtesy of an Ellsbury single, a Nick Green sac fly, and mixed in, a single by (crickets) Julio Lugo. Good job.
Daniel Bard, he of the 99 mph fastball, struck out the side in the ninth, earning his first save, with a walk and hit batsman mixed in. Cripes, who wouldn't be afraid of hitting against a guy who has that kind of stuff, and variable idea where it's going.

The Sox have the second best record in the majors, after the Dodgers.*

About the only thing I didn't see tonight was (another) coyote in my backyard.

Saturday's All Right

2009-06-06T22:30:00.002-04:00

Quick hits:

John Lester was magnificent in a 2-hitter, with a perfect game for 6 1/3 innings. He had better stuff than he no-hit the Royals with last year, with a couple of different styles of curveball, the hard cutter, a turnover sinker, and touched 98 on the gun. He lowered his ERA to 5.06 with the complete game. Would the Sox consider realigning the rotation to have him pitch Thursday on four days rest against the Yankees?
Jason Bay had a key 2-run RBI single after a lengthy at bat to break the game open in the fifth inning.
David Ortiz hit the Pesky Pole for his 2nd dinger of the season and hit the ball hard a couple of times. Francona grabbed the big guy and encouraged him to take a recognition of the "Curtain Call". I'm sure Ortiz isn't looking for extra face time right now.
Julio Lugo is frustrated with his playing time. Most Sox fans are equally frustrated by his playing time.

Free Range Chicken

2009-06-05T20:51:00.002-04:00

Anybody watching the Red Sox tonight has to wonder how long the Red Sox can stick with this formula...

Julio Lugo gets no jump in either direction and clearly his inability to make plays at short hurts the team. Brad Penny wore the victim's hairshirt tonight and the frustration sits on his sleeve like a dank mist. Yes, Lugo sustained an injury, but if he can't get the job done, he must sit. Fielding aside, Lugo hasn't confused anyone with the 1983 Cal Ripken at the plate either. The Sox have contractual obligations to Lugo whether he rides the pine or wets the bed at short.

Nick Green holds no fascination for me. Getting an everyday shortstop who makes plays should occupy Theo Epstein's thoughts 24/7. This has become unwatchable, a slow motion train wreck with your best friends aboard.

Sox Milestones

2009-06-02T22:22:00.004-04:00

Julio Lugo. (crickets)

Daisuke Matsuzaka tossed a vintage 'dental extraction' victory, throwing a million pitches in five innings for his first win.

A bullpen parade featuring Delcarmen, Okajima, Ramirez and Papelbon iced the victory, although the Papelbonian ninth sweated out Sox fans, as he loaded the bases with none out before fanning the side.

NAME

Pitcher A	24	0	2	0	0	0	8	23.1	14	6	2	9	24	9.26	0.0	0.99	2.31
Pitcher B	22	0	0	1	13	0	0	23.0	22	6	3	11	28	10.96	0.0	1.43	2.35

Obviously, pitcher B has a lot more saves, but Okajima (Pitcher A) has pretty good stats relative to Papelbon, who does it closing.

David Ortiz...had the hat trick tonight...he didn't look quite as disconsolate though. Gerry Callahan's axe required surgical removal from Ortiz before the game. The former Chelmsford gridiron legend did the ultimate hatchet job on Ortiz in the Herald today. If you removed the passive voice from Callahan's column, you could tweet it.

Jacoby Ellsbury continued his solid hitting with a pair of hits and an intentional walk.

Where's the Excitement?

2009-06-01T20:47:00.002-04:00

"Chicks dig the long ball." Well, maybe it was just the synthetic testosterone.

The Sox have proved a bit frustrating because they simply have failed (at times) to play the best fundamental baseball. The Minnesota series proves the point. The Sox have far more talent (and payroll than the Twins), yet the Twins' execution and solid play earned them a split.

What's with all the hip labrum disease? Is this something newly found (Lowell, A-Rod, Delgado and more) or a new phenomenon?

Hooray for Jacoby Ellsbury's working to hit the ball on the ground/line drives instead of homerun swings for popups.

Can we find some superior fielding shortstop like A-Gonzo?

Maybe Lester and Beckett have found the answer. No substitute for a live arm, right Daniel Bard?

Remarkable how supportive Sox' fans are for David Ortiz. There's no way to plug a player into a meter and say "he's lost it."

Can you believe that Jason Varitek has a higher OPS than J.D. Drew? It's true.

I thought I saw a Red Sox catcher throw out a runner recently. Carl Crawford, be afraid, be very afraid. Justin Masterson held the runner on second by hitting him, unintentionally.

You can NEVER have too much pitching. If you had ten great starters, then you'd still find a way to have them injured, suspended, or otherwise unavailable.

Back to back carpet series. That, Martha, is not a very good thing.

Stripes: Earned, Changed, Defined

2009-05-25T17:16:00.002-04:00

Stripes. A movie, animal skin, or something else?

Terry Francona has earned his stripes with a pair of World Series titles in five seasons. His success follows excellent players, supporting his veterans and promoting youth, keeping problems in-house, and maybe a little luck. Nothing wrong with that.

Zebras. That is, umpires. I think the calls on the bases are as good as ever, but the strike zone has begun to resume pre-Questek dimensions, with the outside corner not yet of Glavinesque proportions but getting there. Two consecutive replay days for homers for the Sox, but the locals went 0-2, although no way we could bellyache on the former, and we couldn't really tell on the latter.

Do you have to change your stripes sometimes? The Sox are facing numerous stripe-rearrangement questions?

Do they need another DH bat? Even when healthy, is Mark Kotsay the answer if Big Papi continues to struggle or has an injury?
Should Big Papi move down in the lineup? (Absolutely)
Do we have a shortstop controversy? Neither Lugo nor Green are going to make anybody forget Ozzie Smith. Green has a fielding percentage at shortstop of .922, with a mediocre range factor. Lugo has a fielding percentage of .931, and his failures to reach balls and turn double plays have affected at least two games. Neither is getting the job done in the field consistency, notwithstanding Green's sliding catch recently.
Closer. Jonathan Papelbon seems to be getting 'pigeon-holed' as a one-pitch pitcher. He certainly has a 'plus' fastball with command, but we're also talking American League. He doesn't throw sliders to left-handers and the splitter is pretty much the club in the bag these days.
Announcer. Jerry Remy get well soon, but Dave Roberts is a natural, easy to listen, obviously has an encyclopedic baseball knowledge, and works well with Don Orsillo. I just wish Dave would reduce the 'knocks' about fifty percent.

Promotional Considerations

2009-05-23T13:13:00.003-04:00

I really liked what I saw of Junichi Tazawa in Spring Training (on television). He had an aggressive style, coming after the hitters, with a fastball with good movement and a better breaking ball than Daisuke Matsuzaka. He threw strikes.

Tazawa went to AA Portland, and what has he done lately? Let's focus on the appearances in May.First, I like to look at WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and K/BB ratio, that predicts ERA better than previous ERA itself.

In five May appearances, Tazawa has pitched 28 innings, yielding 21 hits, with 7 walks and 28 strikeouts. He has allowed five earned runs, with the WHIP ratio of 1.00 and the K/BB ratio of four.

No doubt the Sox are working on fastball command and secondary pitches, but it looks like Tazawa has already achieved dominance at AAA. Next stop Pawtucket. Obviously, we don't know Taz' support system (interpreter) et cetera, but the Sox need to assess his abilities against better competition.

Pop!

2009-05-20T21:39:00.001-04:00

Red Sox Nation got a spiritual boost tonight with a two run homer provided by David Ortiz, his first of the season. Speculation raged over steroids, injury, or age discrepancy, but Ortiz, with tremendous support from Red Sox fans, delivered a blast into the centerfield camera.

Ortiz has been one of the most popular, if not the most popular Sox player for years, and fans shared Terry Francona's angst over Big Papi's struggles at the bat. He had gone from nightly hero to Mighty Casey almost overnight, with lunging, futile swings.

Meanwhile the Sox, who usually struggle against new pitchers teed off for five homers, a pair by Jason Varitek, and one apiece by J. Bay, Mike Lowell, and Papi.

Not Rocket Science

2009-05-13T22:04:00.002-04:00

With four starters with ERAs over six (Lester, Beckett, Penny, and Matsuzaka), one has to scratch his head and wonder how the Sox have stayed close in the AL East. The Sox are 21-12 and only a game out.

But it's not difficult. Offensively, the Sox are second in the AL in scoring, about 5.7 runs per game, and the pitching is tenth in the AL in ERA. The Sox are sixth, however, in strikeouts to walks, and Red Sox data shows that K/BB ratio predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Still, more telling is the Red Sox bullpen, that is third in ERA at 3.20 and leads the AL in saves with 11. With the AL overall bullpen ERA at 4.54, that's quite a differential.

This has translated into a 6-4 win-loss record in one-run games (good, not great) and their overall record exceeds their expected record using baseball's Pythagorean Theorem.

Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Jonathan Papelbon have ERAs of 0.52, 0.52, and 1.20 respectively, allowing four earned runs in 49 2/3 innings. They have allowed only 33 hits and 22 walks with 42 strikeouts.

Certainly, we can't expect the bullpen to have the collective success they've enjoyed so far, but consistent offense and superior relief have allowed the Sox to survive mediocre starting pitching.

Ray Ban?

2009-05-10T20:16:00.002-04:00

Happy Mother's Day! The pink bats, pink wristbands, and breast cancer ribbons are out.

The Sox play the Rays in the Game of the Week, and the Sox managed to keep Carl Crawford from stealing...as he scores from first on a two-out single by Pat Burrell. Crawford scored despite not running hard all the way...as I presume he thought Burrell's wall-ball was bound for the Monster Seats.

It's a big outing for Josh Beckett and the Sox, as Beckett has struggled and Matt Garza has looked like Bob Gibson circa 1967 for the Rays.

Before a national television audience, Terry Francona had the 'sense' to put Julio Lugo on the pine. Lugo's defense has been sorry so far this season...but he didn't pick up an error for his miscue yesterday. Unfortunately, Nick Green's defense hasn't been great either.

Hope is a four-letter world.

Sox Celebrate Press Dinner

2009-05-09T22:36:00.002-04:00

Tonight Washington congratulates the Press on their stewardship of journalistic integrity in covering the White House.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox took the roasting at the hands of the Tampa Bay Death Rays. It was another Kazmir sweater for the Sox as the Rays pounded the locals 14-5. The good news was that a slaughter rule deficit never came into play.

A lot of guys had roles in the afternoon no-delight, particularly Julio Lugo, who continues to play Superman at shortstop, handling baseballs like kryptonite. The difference between Jed and Julio? There's no 'D' in Julio. Jeff Bailey misplayed a pickoff into an error as well, although not costing the Sox a run.

The sacks were loaded more often than Professor Irwin Corey for the Rays, and the Sox exchanged the Friday Red uniforms for waving white flags.

The Rays did show a little mercy, as Carl Crawford (three) had more hits than stolen bases, and didn't add to his stolen base or strawberry totals. Every starter for the Rays had at least one hit, making their mothers proud even before their day.

Good news? Rocco Baldelli went yard for the first time as a Sox, and Javier Lopez had a scoreless inning, after yielding a run in the seventh. Fortunately, Lopez didn't have any fielding 'testers'.

Seriously, baseball is about your 'body of work', not solely one loss here or there. Today was one of those "John McKay" days, when if Terry Francona were asked about the execution of his team he could answer, "I'm in favor of it."

Better luck tomorrow...and Happy Mothers' Day to all.

Changing Face of K's

2009-05-07T20:40:00.001-04:00

Hat tip to son Conor...the numbers guy...a.k.a. "The Big Brain"

Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons between 1945-1996: 5
Number of instances of 30 year olds having 300+ K seasons since 1997: 9

Pedro once (the year he was God)
Schilling 3 times
Johnson 5 times

Also note that the 2001 D-Backs, in addition to Schilling and Johnson, had Luis Gonzalez's 57 homer year, Jay Bell (2 years removed from his 38-homer season which came at age 34), Matt Williams...

Player (age that year)	Strikeouts	Year
Sandy Koufax+ (30)	317	1966
Mickey Lolich (30)	308	1971
Nolan Ryan+ (30)	341	1977
Mike Scott (31)	306	1986
Nolan Ryan+ (42)	301	1989
Curt Schilling (30)	319	1997
Randy Johnson (34)	329	1998
Curt Schilling (31)	300	1998
Randy Johnson (35)	364	1999
Pedro Martinez (27)	313	1999
Randy Johnson (36)	347	2000
Randy Johnson (37)	372	2001
Randy Johnson (38)	334	2002
Curt Schilling (35)	316	2002

Something is different?

Three Rules

2009-05-07T20:02:00.003-04:00

My opinion on baseball or the Red Sox certainly isn't any better than yours. The only difference is that you may not have a forum to discuss your opinion. As we approach the quarter of a season mark, here are some thoughts and observations.

I still have concerns about the Red Sox starting pitching, particularly when Tim Wakefield has been the "ace" of the staff. Yes, Lester is coming around, Beckett hasn't had full command, Daisuke is still on rehab, and Penny hasn't consistently shown he can win in the AL. Masterson is really better in the pen, as he has issues the second or third time around.
The bullpen looks pretty solid, though.
Jason Varitek's 0.791 OPS is something we can live with, particularly when he has reduced his strikeout percentage to 18%. Has he lost something defensively? That's not clear.
Losing Youkilis' bat simply hurts.
Great to have beaten the Yankees five straight, but they're like Jason Voorhees...hard to put down.
Two of the three major offensive powers in MLB (A-Rod, Manny, Pujols) have now made steroid perp walks or the equivalent. Is that eye black or a black eye, sir?
Are they afraid of Pedroia's power, or just working him outside?
Has Carl Crawford become the Red Sox' new Lou Brock?
Has Joe Giardi lost his mind? Is Tim Bogar the Sox' secret weapon?
Many people are telling me they're tired of the Sox-Yankees marathons.
Haven't heard anything about Bob (The 26th Man of the Yankees) Watson giving Joba Chamberlain a warning about plunking J Bay...
I'm looking forward to seeing how Dave Roberts does as an analyst.
But we all want Jerry Remy getting better ASAP.
Not many guys have great nicknames like "Mudcat".
Longer-term, the Sox have no solution behind the plate.
Nick Green or Julio Lugo? Maryann or Ginger?
Not many pitchers of note have been outed on steroids. Cleaner or sneakier.
Manny Pacquiao. The real Manny?
Three rules to remember: HAVE FUN, GET IT DONE, DON'T BE A JERK. These were the motto of my late brother-in-law Michael Egan. He never violated his rules. May the Sox adopt them as well.

Monday Randoms

2009-04-27T20:29:00.002-04:00

When was the last time the Sox won ten in a row to move into second place? Maybe 1967. On that interesting note, let's try some random thoughts.

The NBA's gone to plus minus in assessing contribution. Maybe the newspapers could introduce that for starting pitchers and catchers. Too random?
A Yankee fan took umbrage to my comment that Kevin Youkilis might be the Sox version of Paul O'Neill. Evidently, he viewed O'Neill as the New York version of Mother Teresa. Did she beat up water coolers?
Ramon Ramirez has been pretty effective...is he just wild enough to be scary?
Cliff Lee looks like he's got the kryptonite so far tonight.
Jacoby Ellsbury is on a 90 steal pace. With Scott Boras as his agent, will we know him as the Ellsbury Dough Boy?
David Ortiz still isn't making great contact. Does Papi need an eye check, or a wrist check?
Julio Lugo is back. I'm kinda good with Nick Green for now. Don't rush it, eh?
Tim Wakefield's biggest liability is the running game.
The Rem Dawg is in fine form this year.
Jason Varitek is still only hitting .216, but it's a hard .216, with a slugging percent of .510.
I still hate that damned drum at the Jake.
Do knuckleballers need pitch counts?
Mike Lowell has been a revelation at the plate this season.
Jason Bay...has he found a home in left. Let's hope so.
Good article today on the fairly dramatic increase in Papelbon's pitches per inning this season...a sign of diminishing dominance or just a statistical aberration.
Jeff Bailey has been tracking a few fly balls tonight like they were radioactive.
Will Ellsbury have enough cachet to compete for a Gold Glove this year?
The median attendance in baseball this season is 28 thousand and change. Last season it was 31 thousand and change. Too bad the Bureau of Labor and Statistics doesn't incorporate it into their economic calculus.

Yikes

2009-04-27T06:33:00.001-04:00

"Instant Classic" that Lasts Forever

2009-04-25T00:46:00.000-04:00

First, I am a Red Sox fan, tracing my Sox roots back to the Yaz era that began in the early 60's. I've suffered though Mantle, Maris, and Ford, the dark days of Hector Lopez, The Stick, Roy White, and the resurrected Bombers of Reggie Jackson, BillyBall, and the Jeter era...and of course the Frustration of the New Millenium.

I remember Felix Mantilla, Jim Pagliaroni, and when Schilling was Chuck, not Curt. Culpability meant Ray Culp's location not two hundred million dollar payrolls.

So the Sox victory tonight brings their deficit to 64-68 over the past seven plus seasons. Still, watching these games brings plenty of time pain, as they almost never last less than four hours (4:21 tonight), as though swinging at a first pitch strike is a crime and you get paid time and a half for a full count.

Okay, so maybe extra innings gives some legitimacy to a four hour game tonight, but not by that much. If you love crisp baseball, you will find only annoyance in Sox-Yanks contests. John Lester and Joba Chamberlain must have combined for, oh, 800 pitches (actually 205) in their combined 11 1/3 innings. Pitch counting mercifully got both teams into the bullpens.

Mark Teixeira mostly got the silent treatment in his pinstripe debut. Before the game his press conference offered no raw meet and all the intensity of an episode of Mr. Rogers. Sox fans administered polite indifference more than rowdy rancor. Could respect actually be creeping into a rivalry more remembered for brawls than hat tips?

The Sox first run was a thing of booty, with Ellsbury singling, getting balked to second, and scoring on a steal of third/passed ball as Molina either got crossed up or butchered a curve, and Joba Chamberlain covered home plate as though he was approaching a mine field. Had he tagged Ellsbury with his glove instead of his backside, it might have been a close play. So before the two hitter had made an out, Ellsbury had turned a single into a run with his speed and Yankee charity.

Evidently Chamberlain must have gotten a love letter from Bob Watson, as he omitted his customary beanballs for Kevin Youkilis. Or he was again so wild that he was incapable of aiming the "purpose pitch". Is Chamberlain hurt? He doesn't look like the same guy as he throws mostly low 90s now.

Derek Jeter is starting to look old...although no doubt still carries himself with the dignity of a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Fans got 'treated' to Javier Lopez getting out of a bases loaded no out jam, courtesy of his own wildness, of course. If you can breathe and throw lefthanded, you too can be a LOOGY (lefty out of the bullpen guy) and make 1.25 million dollars. Jesse Orosco, where are you?

I must have seen Mariano Rivera pitch fifty times against the Sox, and he wasn't the same guy either. He now has an even dozen blown saves against the Sox. The cutter is now 91-92, still well-located, except for the hanger that Jason Bay deposited in the Monster Seats for a two-out game tying ninth inning shot.

The Sox wore their Friday night softball red shirts tonight, after wearing their Earth Day greens Wednesday with green hats. MLB properties knows no shame.

Sox fans took umbrage at Paul O'Neill's antics like "water cooler abuse" after a strikeout, and Yankee fans have the same anti-hero in Kevin Youkilis, the Sox version of O'Neill. Youkilis was part of the game tying and game winning rallies, finishing with a walkoff homer.

And Randy Newman haters ("Short People") got their comeuppance as Dustin Pedroia had a monster defensive game for the Sox.

And the rambling, stream of consciousness, Thomas Wolfe style? Could anyone who watched this mind-numbing "instant classic" not write this way?

Ancient Rivalry Renewed

2009-04-23T22:02:00.002-04:00

The Red Sox ride a seven game win streak into a weekend series with the Yankees, who have played well since their 22-4 destruction by Cleveland.

The Sox showcase Lester, Beckett, and Masterson while the Yankees counter with Joba "the Hut" Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte.

The first game of the series pits teams with identical 9-6 records tied for second place behind Toronto. Chamberlain pitched brilliantly in one start against the Sox last season, and Lester shutout the Yankees at the Stadium. Chamberlain has a propensity for head-hunting, with Kevin Youkilis the object for his disaffection. Yankee lackey Bob Watson ought to consider dropping a dime to Chamberlain with some reminders of the impact of the "purpose" pitch, using Tony Conigliaro and Kirby Puckett as tragic examples of baseball meeting heads.

Mark Teixeira (double 'e' before 'i') makes his pinstripe debut at Fenway Park leaving disaffected Boston suitors for a steamer trunk full of Benjamins. Like Willie Sutton, Teixeira simply knew "that's where the money is."

The Sox and Yanks are tied for fourth in offense, with both having scored 84 points in 15 games. The Red Sox have a team ERA of 4.14 while the Yankees (largely secondary to that 22 run outing) check in tenth at 6.02. The Bombers are second in fielding percentage in the AL while the Red Sox are ninth.

Early season punch for the Sox has come from Youkilis, J.D. Drew, and Jason Bay, combining for 10 homers, 35 runs scored, and 30 RBI. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Nick Swisher have also produced 10 homers, 27 runs scored, and 34 RBI.

The Sox come in with starting shortstop Jed Lowrie on the DL, but otherwise reasonably good health, while the Yankees miss perennial All-star A-Rod on the DL following hip surgery.

Boston and New York split the season series last year, the Yankees led 10-8 in 2007, and 11-8 in 2006.

Sox fans should expect the usual playoff atmosphere when the Gothamites invade Fenway, although the Sox probably eagerly await their first trip to the new palatial Yankee Stadium.

Baseball 2009: Early Impressions

2009-04-19T09:42:00.003-04:00

Maybe it's too soon to make overarching judgements about the 2009 baseball season, but we all have our early impressions.

Is the offense better around the league or the pitching worse?
Break up the Marlins?
Balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium.
The Red Sox pitching may not be nearly as good as we thought.
Fortunately, the Yankee pitching may not be as good either.
Maybe Zack Greinke (ERA 0.00 after three games) IS the real deal.
You knew Tim Lincecum wasn't going to keep getting lit up forever.
Lou Groza's five field goals and a Browns touchdown were too much for the Yankees.
Kansas City. First place.
Does Gary Sheffield's 500th homer (25th guy to do it) get a steroid asterisk?
Some think Bob Watson still acts in the Yankees' interest.
The New Look Giants have a record like the 2008 Giants.
Manny continues to hit (and field) like Godzilla.
Anybody wondering whether the balls are juiced?
Johan Santana sure looks good. Should that surprise us?
Are the Orioles trying to keep Matt Wieters from reaching free agency earlier by keeping him down on the farm?
Speaking of catchers...Joe Mauer...get well soon.
Ryan Ludwick is on a 180 plus RBI pace (yeah, it's early)
Is Tampa crazy for keeping David Price at Durham?
The best team in the AL East (by run differential) by a lot...is Toronto.
Think that Roy Haladay has anything to do with that?
The worst team by run differential? The Yankees. Okay, so an 18 run defeat yesterday caused that.
Major league attendance figures? Eyeballing 'em...they're down. The median 2008 attendance was 31K and change. So far, it's 29 and change.

Glove Story

2009-04-18T08:25:00.004-04:00

The Red Sox came back from an early nil-7 deficit to beat the Orioles last night. But was that the story?

Sure the Sox got some timely hitting, Dr. Longball from J Bay and J.D., and outstanding relief pitching. But wasn't the Woes defense the major contribution?

Jeremy Guthrie certainly could claim non-support, particularly with Aubrey Huff doing a Doctor Strangeglove imitation at first and Adam Jones not confusing anyone with Andruu Jones in center.

Certainly the Mothers' Day Miracle comes to mind in Sox comebacks for the nouveau Sox fan. For the slightly older, there was the playoff rally in the ill-fated 1986 playoffs against the Angels with the Hendu homer off Donnie Moore.

But for the long of tooth, in the Impossible Dream season of 1967, the Sox came back from an 8-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Angels, winning, if I recall, on a Jerry Adair homer. Adair would later have a key contribution (again with memory fading) in the sixth inning five-run rally against the Twins in the season finale. I believe he scored the tying run on a Yaz single.The point of all this being, that 'corporate memory' doesn't mean yesterday's news.