New Philippine Revolution

Martial Law declaration of Mrs. Arroyo an abuse of Executive Power

2009-12-05T09:50:00.002+08:00

What are the conditions existing that justifies the declaration of martial rule? Under Section 18 of Article 7 of the 1987 Constitution, it is clearly stated that:

"The President shall be the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines and whenever it becomes necessary, he may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion or rebellion. In case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it, he may, for a period not exceeding sixty days, suspend the privilege of the writ of Habeas Corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law."

The provision is very clear and under our jurisdiction, its construction should also be clear---martial law can only be declared if there is an existing condition of "lawless violence, invasion or rebellion." The Supreme Court in many instances, particularly those rulings when Mrs. Arroyo declared a "state of emergency" in Metro Manila at the height of anti-Arroyo rallies, says that such conditions should be "existing" rather than pre-emptory or "perceived".

In the case of Maguindanao, Mrs. Arroyo clearly exceeded her exercise of powers.

Executive Order 1959 is not a judicious exercise of emergency powers granted to her by the Constitution because at the time she so declared it, there was no existing condition of lawless violence, insurrection nor rebellion (or coup d'etat) in Maguindanao. The Armed Forces of the Philippines has already neutralized the Ampatuans. The principal masterminds of the brutal Maguindanao massacre have already been arrested, put under custody and their private armies disarmed and neutralized.

What is quite evident with this declaration is this--the discovery of a huge cache of arms and ammo bearing the markings of the DND-PNP inside the Ampatuan mansions. NPR already wrote about this in previous posts and is the first to report of this huge cache of arms in most of these mansions inside the Ampatuan compound.

Likewise, even government itself, in its numerous press statements, says that the situation has been placed under control, following the previous declaration of a state of emergency.

Clearly, E.O. 1959 is NOT really meant to contain a condition or situation in Maguindanao. Rather, the purpose was simply to use it as a threat, to impress upon the political enemies of Mrs. Arroyo that she is still in control and that she still can use this power against those who will undermine her position as President.

Remember that a few days prior to this, Metro Manila was placed under "blue alert" by the Armed Forces despite the absence of a military intelligence report even indicating that the capital was under serious threat. "Blue alerts" are only availed of, when there is a basis, like an imminent attack from the enemies of the state.

That is the main goal. And what is the tactical objective?

The tactical objective is simply obfuscate the discovery of these huge cache of government assets. E.O. 1959 is meant to protect the Powers-That-Be that allowed such assets to be given to a warlord such as the Ampatuans.

It is meant to silence the Ampatuans and those who know why such a huge pile of government arms and ammos fell into the hands of a brutal warlord clan.

It is likewise a pre-emptive move aimed at confusing the situation and diverting attention from the seriousness of this issue.

Clearly, this discovery is more than enough proof that high government and military officials are involved in cuddling and taking care of the Ampatuans. This is prima facie evidence that DND, AFP and PNP officials colluded with the Ampatuans and supplied them with arms and ammos.

And this definitely happened right under the noses of former DND secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro who earlier claimed in his statements that his administration was "clean" and "devoid of corruption". How will Teodoro explain this now?

Three things:

1. E.O. 1959 is more of a political act than a direct and judicious response to a condition of lawless violence, invasion or rebellion.

2. E.O. 1959 is a clear abuse of powers granted to Mrs. Arroyo under the 1987 Constitution. The action was meant to suppress adverse public opinion arising from the discovery of a huge cache of arms and ammonition by the AFP inside the compound of a political ally.

3. E.O. 1959 should be condemned because it is a diversionary tactic at the expense of a Power than should not be trifled with.

The message is clear---E.O. 1959 is Mrs. Arroyo's way of declaring war against her political enemies; a threat meant to impress her enemies that this power still resides with her and will be used to perpetuate and protect her and her gang's interests whenever threatened.

To those who want change--be prepared for the long haul. This diminutive megalomaniac will not stop. Mrs. Arroyo will not fade away peacefully. She will not give up power that easily.

And the elections, clearly, is threatened by the very actions of this megalomaniac.

Democracy is threatened.

Martial Law declared in Maguindanao...Metro Manila soon to follow?

2009-12-05T09:06:00.000+08:00

Under the 1987 Constitution, martial law can only be declared if there is an existing condition of "insurrection, revolution or coup d'etat". Martial law, as an available power to the State, is exercised only when the security of the state is threatened. When a serious condition of lawless violence pervades in some or a particular area of the archiepelago, the Chief Executive, acting as the Commander-in-Chief, has the power to declare martial rule.

Mrs. Arroyo signed last night Executive Order 1959 placing the entire province of Maguindanao under martial law. This is the first time that Mrs. Arroyo exercised the full extent of the powers granted to her under the Constitution.

The question really---is Martial law necessary in Maguindanao?

In signing the order, Mrs. Arroyo used as reason the massacre which members of the Ampatuan clan allegedly committed against their political enemies. Press secretary Cerge Remonde said it was the government's answer to the cries for justice to the victims.

After surrounding the Ampatuan's mansions and confiscated a huge cache of AFP-supplied arms and ammos, Mrs. Arroyo deemed it wise to declare martial law.

Local government secretary Ronnie Puno did not know it. And surely, it might have been the reason why Presidential Adviser on Political Affairs Gabby Claudio immediately tendered his resignation. His scoliosis might have affected him so much after learning that Mrs. Arroyo intends to use the Maguindanao massacre issue as basis for her to flex her political muscle.

Why was martial law declared when the AFP already neutralized the threat? Was it to whitewash a possible investigation as being called by Senator Rodolfo Biazon, after the AFP discovered a huge cache of high-powered firearms bearing the DND-PNP mark?

Was it to shield the DND from possible complicity in arming a warlord such as the Ampatuans? Was Martial law the possible tactic employed to keep the Ampatuan's mouths shut?

Or, was Mrs. Arroyo and Defense secretary Norberto Gonzales using the issue as foil in an apparent attempt to implement their version of "God Save the Queen"?

A few days before this, the entire National Capital Region was placed under "blue alert", signalling a possible or imminent attack despite the absence of a clear intelligence report as basis for the alert level declaration.

These acts by the State are suspicious and should be a serious cause of alarm.

More than these overt acts, clearly, Mrs. Arroyo again abused her powers granted to her. It is clear that Mrs. Arroyo's declaration is just to show her political enemies that she is still in power and is still a major political force to contend with.

Liwanag ay ingatan

2009-12-05T01:12:00.000+08:00

Alagaan mo at huwag pabayaan
ang ningas ng kandila sa iyong kamalayan
sabihin mo sa hangin--tigil!
at sa kandila'y--teka muna
huwag ninyong papatayin ang liwanag
na aking tangan.

sa pagpunta mo sa kanayunan
sa pag daan mo sa mga kalunsuran
nawa nama'y iyong paka-ingatan
ang tangan mong kaliwanangan.

huwag ariing katotohanan
ang nasusulyapan mong karangyaan
makapanlinlang iyan kaibigan
hindi ganyan ang lipunan.

sa mga panahong ikaw ay napanghihinaan
sa mga panahong tila kay bagal ng katarungan
palakasin mo ang iyong kamalayan
higpitan mo pa ang iyong pananampalataya
darating din ang tagumpay
makakamtan din ang ipinagsikhay!

tagumpay, ang, masa,
sa, maliit, na, sisidlan,
ng mailap, na, pag-asa,
kudlit, lang, tayo,
sa, malawak, na,
uniberso, ng, katotohanan.

dire,diretso,tawid sa bagang progreso
walang ibang daan kundi rito
sa mga nananaginip ng
pagbabago.

kutitap ng mga anghel sa dilim ng gabi
tila nakapagpapa-aya sa sarili
sa martsa ng mga Bagong Katipunero
tumitining ang taghoy ng mga Bagong Tao!

halina't kitilin ang mga malulupit na ala-ala
i-abot mo ang iyong mga kamay, at halina
sa dakong kinaroroonan ng mga banal
tayo ay mag-astang hangal
at masusumpungan natin
ang pagiging sakdal.

Dalawampung dipang libingan sa Maguindanao

2009-12-05T00:58:00.000+08:00

Sa mainit na sikat ng araw, sumigaw ang mga biktima ng katapalansanan.
Hinarang sila ng mga kawatang suot-suot ay tanda ng kapangyarihan.
Ininguso ang mga baril sa kanilang mga mukha.
Ilan ay iginapos na parang tuta.
ang iba'y hinubaran ng kahihiyan
at halinhinang pinagsamantalaan.

sa isang sibilisadong lipunan, gayong karahasan ay nangyayari lamang sa kadiliman
ngunit sa isang nayon na kontrolado ng taong animal, asahan nang walang halal.

pinitpit ng backhoe ang kanilang mga sasakyan
pinutakti ng bala ang kanilang mga katawan
lahat sila'y di na makilala
dahilan sa bistay ng bala.

sa dalawampung dipang libingan
animnaput dalawa ang natagpuan
mga biktima ng salot sa lipunan
ngala'y Andal Ampatuan.

dating maliit na mayor lamang
ng isang baryong hindi nga kilala
ipinagpakilala sa mga kawatan ng pamahalaan
ni Simeon Datumanong na kaaanib ng pangulo
sa partido pulitikal.

sumipsip hanggang sa tumaba
ang lisang ngalan ay Andal Ampatuan
nangako na magdadala ng boto
sa pangulong walang panalo.

sinupalpal ng kamatayan ang mukha ng mga Maguindanaoan
isinailalim sa kalupitan at kawalang katarungan ang lupain ng mga bayani
isinugal ang karangalan ng mga Bangsamoro
kapalit ng kapangyarihan at saklaksang salapi.

lisa ngang naturingan,
lumaki na rin sa kasisipsip sa kaban ng bayan
kuto nang umusbong kapagka kalaunan,
naging warlord ng Maguindanaoan.

lahat ng bayan sa lalawigan, inangking parang pamilya
lahat ng barangay ipinangalan sa mga nasirang Ampatuan
lahat na rin ng kalsada, Ampatuan ang naka-marka
pati na siguro hangin, Ampatuan na rin ang nagdadala.

sumikip ang mga baga ng lahing Maguindanaoan
ilan sa kanila'y nagpasyang kitlin ang kahibangan
sa ilan na ito'y kamatayan ang naging kapalaran
sa ilan nama'y pilit idinaan sa halalan.

lahat sila'y matatagpuan
sa dalawampung dibang libingan.

kalayaan, o kalayaan, kailan matatagpuan?
sa bansang puno ng mga Ampatuan?
sa anumang dako ng kapuluan
mayroong taong kasing bangis
ng isang Ampatuan.

Ilang dalawampung dipang libingan
ang naroroon pa sa kanayunan
Ilan ring dalawampung dipang libingan
ang nakatago sa mga kalunsuran?

Halos isang daang kapwa ko dyornalista
ang itinapon ng estadong maka Ampatuan
sa mga dalawampung dipang libingan.
Ilang libo na ring aktibista
ang nakalasap ng lupit
ng estadong astang Ampatuan?

Lalaon din, sabi ni Ted Failon
na sisikat ang Araw ng Katarungan
ang sulong ginagamit sa mga bukirin
ang siyang magsasalba sa atin.

Sa ilalim ng Kadiliman
sa Siyam na Taong walang Paraluman
darating ang Araw ng Katarungan
kikitlin din ang estadong Ampatuan
at uusbong mula sa mga
dalawampung dipang libingan
ang mga Bagong Pilipinong may kapayapaan.

Patricio Mangubat
Disyembre 5, 2009
Tondo Maynila

Labanan ang Kahibangan, Y.O.U. ang lalaban!

2009-12-04T21:14:00.002+08:00

Hibang na ang taumbayan dahil sa gutom. Mahigit 40 milyong Filipino ang kumakalam ang sikmura, samantalang bilyong bilyong piso ang winawaldas ng mga alipores ni Arroyo. Mas matindi ang kagutumang pang kaluluwa, dahilan sa nawalan na talaga ng hiya ang mga taong pamahalaan.

Ang daan ba ay pagpapahinuhod ng maluwanay sa mga gahaman at mga hinayupak na magnanakaw sa administrasyong Arroyo? O, ipamukha sa kanila ang kalupitang naging karakter na ng kanilang pamamahala?

Kausap ko ang aking mga kapwa nangangarap ng isang Magandang Umaga at isa lamang ang naging sagot—kitlin ang kahibangan sa pamamagitan ng pagtayo at pakihamok.

Kung walang tatayo, kami sa Young Organizers’ Union (YOU), ang tagapagmana ng pakikibaka ng Young Officers’ Union (YOU), ang tatayo. Puputulin namin ang aming pagmamasid at sisimulan ang pakikihamok.

Kahiya-hiya sa mga susunod na henerasyon kung ang kasalukuyang mga nakababatid ng problema ngunit nananatiling tuod ay walang gagawin kundi ang magsulat at magbasa. Itigil na ang labanang pluma at simulan ang totoong pakikihamok.

Makikihamok kami sa larangang panghalalan.

Ikakalat namin ang mensahe ng pagbabago sa taumbayan.

Ipamamahagi namin ang liwanag sa kabila ng kadiliman sa mga kanayunan at kalunsuran.

At sa paglawak ng liwanag, darating ang Bagong Umaga!

Mabuhay ang mga Anak ng Bayan! Mabuhay yaong naghahasik sa Liwanag.

May bagong Pag-asang darating
Sa kanilang mga dumaraing.

Sa mga liblib na kanayunan at sa
mga madidilim na pasilyo ng kalunsuran
dadagundong ang tinig at yapak
ng mga Bagong Katipunerong
may dalang Liwanag.

Magkakaroon ng ilaw mula sa sulo ng aming mga puso
Magniningning ang mga sulok ng kapuluan
ng sanlaksang Liwanag.

Yaong mga ulila ng mapamuksang pamamahala.
Yaong mga inalisan ng katarungan
Yaong sadlak sa kagutuman.
Yaong walang kapayapaan.

Tugunin ang hamon ng Kasaysayan
Ipagsanggalang ang Taumbayan
Kunin ang sulo at makihamok
Bagong Pamahalaan ang iluklok.

Kakain ang mga api ng tatlong beses isang araw.
Kikitlin ang mga gahaman ng kanilang kinabubuhayan.
Iiral ang Kapayapaan sa lahat ng dako ng kapuluan.
May Bagong Umagang tiyak ang pagdating!

Come 2010, a President Estrada, an Estrada as Senate President and an Ejercito as Speaker

2009-12-04T20:42:00.003+08:00

There are those who refuse to see what's before them for lack of knowledge or simply want to close their eyes to the truth.

Come 2010, if the people decide, then, we will have a Joseph Estrada as president, his legitimate son, Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President and an illegitimate son, JV Ejercito, as Speaker. Talk about an Estrada restoration, this one is for the Guinness book of World Records.

And we condemn the Ampatuans for being warlords when we face the possibility of just one family dominating our entire country and dictating our very future for six years.

If Manny Villar wins the presidency, then, I see a repeat of the despised Arroyo regime. Imagine a president having his son in Congress and having an ex-Congresswoman as First Lady? What are the chances of his son being elected Speaker of the House while Villar sits as president? Likely, yes.

This is also the case of Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, who wants to field his mother as Congresswoman of Tarlac, replacing his wife, the lovely Nikki Prieto-Teodoro. A mother and son tandem ruling the government?

How about the case of Noynoy Aquino? Should he wins, he will have a Councilor in Valenzuela as first lady?

Worst if we elect former president Joseph Estrada. Imagine a scenario where Erap sits as president while his son, Jinggoy Estrada serves as Senate President. That is not far-fetched since Jinggoy enjoys top spot as a senator in all surveys. If Jinggoy clinches the no. 1 position as Senator in this elections, we may have to contend with the possibility of an Estrada as Senate President.

If Estrada dies due to old age or disease, and efforts are made to discredit the vice president, then, another Estrada replaces the old one. Cute. :-)

Don't forget that another son, JV Ejercito, is gunning for the Congressional seat of San Juan, while his mother, Guia, is poised to win the mayoral post which JV will vacate come June 2010.

Come 2010, that would surely bring the entire Philippine House down---an Erap for president, a Jinggoy for Senate President and a JV Ejercito for Speaker. If all of them wins, then, we literally have a dynastic family ruling the entire Philippine political system. This is the surest way for us to have our very first Constitutional monarchy---an Estrada one, at that. Wow!

So you think that Erap has the moral authority to demand the Arroyos not to seek elective posts when all of his family are involved in this elections?

Besides, we saw how the Estradas abused their power when they occupied Malacanang. And we all know that Estrada is what, as Ebdane says, "utak pulbura" (meaning a war-freak), then, we can say that Estrada can be likened to an Andal Ampatuan.

Probably yes. Imagine, Ejercitos dominating the political system, armed with guns and their bullies, again.

And this is simply not too different when you ask me about Bangon Pilipinas presidential bet Eddie Villanueva. Villanueva has a son for a Congressman whom reports say will run as a legislator in Bulacan. Another Villanueva sits as mayor in one of the towns in Bulacan too. Should Eddie wins, then, we have a possible repeat of an Arroyo-like regime.

So, who do we choose?

The worst evil is elect an Estrada. The least evil, is, I think, vote for a Noynoy who will simply not allow a repeat of the Kamag-anak Incorporated that dominated his mother's administration. Or, will he really not allow this?

I say go for a JC delos Reyes. Oh, by the way, a JC win would translate into a Gordon? Wala na talaga.

Kay Nicanor Perlas na lang tayo.:-0

Good elites, bad elites

2009-12-04T20:26:00.000+08:00

Is elitism really a scourge in this country? Not quite, says Joey de Venecia III. There are families which have carved dynasties that benefitted the people. Example would be the Binays of Makati City, the Osmenas, and other familiar names in Philippine politics.

What is contemptible, says Joey in his latest press statement, is when families such as the Arroyos dominate the political scene with impunity. Hence, says Joey, all opposition parties should repulse another attempt by the Arroyos to perpetuate themselves in power.

Okey, so what I gathered so far is, there are elites who are essentially good because they serve the people well, and there are those whose passion and desires are simply for self-aggrandizement. Accepted.

Now, I ask myself---what was the cause why families such as the Arroyos can actually perpetuate themselves in power without even, nay, feeling nauseous for doing so? Simple question nets a very simple answer--because existing laws allow them to. For those who study politics, politics is not an ethical nor a moral game. It is a game played by those whose desire is simply get and maintain themselves in power. Period. If the rules of the land say that you can actually field your wife, your brother, your sister, your mother, your father and your in-laws while you youself hold an elective post, you can do so because of the absence of an enabling law against political dynasties.

To change all of these, we must address the root cause of such---either enact an enabling law against political dynasty OR simply build transformative and responsible politics. The former is doable; the latter, we have a long way to go.

But of course, it is easy to say this, given that we are just saying what is possible or doable and what are not doables.

The next question that we need to answer is this---are our elites desire to simply do what is right? Probably, no. As I said, politics is not and will never be ethical simply because the way to power is not a moral struggle.

If the elites don't desire to correct the wrongs wrought by their inability to create or craft an enabling law, then, the only way to do this is eradicate the very system they use to perpetuate themselves in power. This is doable but possible, no. For the very levers of the system prevent outsiders from actually causing a breakdown of the system.

One example would be the process of elections. Elections is designed as the democratic means towards equalizing the political spectrum. How can elections be used as an effective deterrent against political dynasties when it is not as credible as we hope it is?

There are, however, models that counter this, one of which is what happened in Isabela, where Grace Padaca defeated the Dys. Or that of Pampanga when a priest, Ed Panlilio, gave the Lapids and the jueteng lords some beating. These models are, of course, local, not national. Will there be a time when nationally accepted political dynastic families crumble against weaker opponents? Possibly not doable under a self-perpetuating system of political patronage.

End Elite Hold in Politics, UN experts urge Filipinos

2009-12-04T09:41:00.000+08:00

Do we need foreigners to tell us that we need to stop elite rule in this country?

Two United Nations experts, Philp Alston and Frank la Rue said that massacres such as the one which happened in Maguindanao are preventable if we put adequate measures that prevent elite control over the political system. Let me reproduce what the Inquirer published today on this:

GENEVA — Investigations into the deaths of 57 people in an election-related massacre in southern Philippines must be the start of a major reform process in the country, two United Nations human rights experts said on Wednesday.

The two experts called for the “effective” prosecution of those behind the killings and an end to manipulation by the elite of the country’s election process.

The authorities must also put in place immediate measures to prevent similar murders in the run-up to elections next May, said the experts, who report to the UN Human Rights Council on extrajudicial killings and on freedom of expression.

“The premeditated killing of political opponents, combined with a massive assault on the media, must be tackled at various levels that go well beyond standard murder investigations,” declared the two experts, Philip Alston and Frank La Rue.

The massacre took place in Maguindanao province on Nov. 23 in the Philippines’ deadliest ever election-related crime. The killings were blamed on members of the Ampatuan family, whom President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has in the past called valuable political allies.

Threat to democracy

Alston and La Rue said the inquiry “must be followed by effective prosecutions of all those responsible for the killings.”

But the massacre should also spark extensive reflection “on the elite family-dominated manipulation of the political processes and the need to eliminate such practices in order to assure the future of democracy in the Philippines,” they said.

The two UN experts—Alston from the United States and La Rue from Guatemala—said any broad inquiry into the country’s political system would have to focus on how to improve protection for journalists, 30 of whom died in the massacre.

Even more urgent was the creation of a task force to prevent more election-related killings.

“There is every indication that the run-up to the May elections will sound the death knell for many political activists,” the two added.

UN intervention

In Manila, journalists said Philippine media groups might ask the United Nations to intervene in the probe of the massacre.

“We’re considering all options, including asking the UN rights body to step into the massacre,” Melinda Quintos de Jesus, executive director of the Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility, told reporters, adding the local press must “not drop the ball to allow the suspects to get away with the murders.”

Int’l press group’s mission

International press groups were also sending a mission to the Philippines to look into the massacre.

Around 15 delegates from groups like the International Federation of Journalists, the Southeast Asian Press Alliance, and the Committee to Protect Journalists were expected to arrive in Manila this weekend, according to National Union of Journalists of the Philippines (NUJP) board member Rowena Paraan.

“This shows that there is international attention on the incident, as it should be. The trip will also be an expression of solidarity with local journalists,” Paraan said.

Paraan said members of the media would march on the Don China Roces Bridge (formerly Mendiola) on Dec. 9 as part of the Global Day of Action for the slain journalists.

In a report released Thursday, a fact-finding team that went to Maguindanao observed that police had handled evidence poorly, leading to its possible contamination.

“There was little or no consideration given to preserving the evidence. There was little or no consideration given to avoid the contamination of the crime scene,” the report said.

The group said the vehicles used by the suspects in stopping a convoy carrying journalists and relatives of a clan opposed to the Ampatuans were still unaccounted for.

“Investigators said the suspects also used a Nissan Frontier pickup with police markings. One such police vehicle issued to the Maguindanao police is still unaccounted for. This jibes with claims by (witnesses) that police vehicles were involved in the blockade,” the team said.

"Culture of fear and silence’

The killings have stoked fear among students in some areas of Mindanao.

Fr. Edgardo Tanudtanud, OMI, director of the Catholic Educational Association of the Philippines (CEAP) for Central Mindanao, cited a recent incident in which several students, out of fear, canceled their participation in a march for peace in Cotabato.

“It has created a culture of fear and silence among the people, including the students, Christians and Muslims alike. But that fear did not stem from that massacre incident alone, but because of the history of violence in the area,” Tanudtanud said.

In a statement, the association of 1,272 member schools, colleges and universities said: “This mass murder ... has showcased the extent corrupt individuals are willing to go in order to arrogate the power to themselves.”

Msgr. Gerry Santos, president of the CEAP, said the group was demanding long-term solutions to the decades-old conflict that had forced Maguindanaoans to live in fear and subhuman conditions.

“We ask the government to dismantle private armies and put an end to the anarchy of clans in the region,” Santos said. Reports from Reuters, Alcuin Papa and Tina G. Santos.

METRO MANILA PLACED ON BLUE ALERT--Oplan August Moon on?

2009-12-03T17:25:00.000+08:00

DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY INTELLIGENCE REPORT RELATING TO A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF VIOLENCE, Mayor General Reynaldo Mapagu, chief of the AFP National Capital Region (NCR) Command placed the entire Metro Manila under BLUE ALERT.

Mapagu, A MEMBER OF PMA CLASS 1978, said that he has activated all his units and has coordinated with his mistah, PNP Director Roberto Rosales, head of the PNP National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO) to closely monitor movements on the ground.

"Blue alert", the second highest alert, is only hoisted when an attack is deemed "imminent."

Mapagu said he raised the alert level in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from supporters of beleaguered Maguindanao governor Andal Ampatuan. Today, thousands of troops surrounded the compound of the governor, possibly as a foil against those who would try to protect the governor from arrest. The governor is being blamed for the massacre which killed 62 people in one of history's worst election-related violence.

This "blue alert" is VERY SUSPICIOUS since Mapagu himself ADMITS that there is NO report even indicating that the capital is under serious attack or reports which show that groups are threatening or even planning to stage attacks.

Suspicious also since the AFP NCRCommand is the ANTI-COUP FORCE of the Arroyo administration.

Is Mapagu over-reacting or he's playing his part of the Game of the Generals?

No Proclamation Scenario sa 2010 Elections

2009-12-03T15:49:00.000+08:00

Lumiliwanag na ang tunay na hangarin ni Ginang Arroyo sa kanyang pagtakbo bilang Kongresista ng Pampanga---alisan ng anumang dignidad ang Tanggapan ng Pangulo upang hindi ito magamit ng kanyang mga kalaban laban sa kanya sa sandaling umalis na siya sa puwesto.

Maliwanag din sa lahat ang scenario ng "no-proclamation", kung saan tanging mga kinatawan lamang sa mga distrito ang papaupuin at pipigilan ang pag-upo ng bagong Pangulo, bise at mga senador. Para kay Arroyo, nakataya ang kanyang sariling kaligtasan sa planong ito.

May basehan ba ang ganitong scenario? Oo. Tanungin ninyo ang Comelec.

Sa isang automated election, mauunang lumabas ang resulta ng mga nanalong kandidato sa mga lokal na puwesto, at kabilang dito ang resulta sa mga tumakbo bilang kinatawan. May kaunting katagalan ang paglabas ng resulta para sa mga pambansang posisyon dahilan sa kinakailangan pa itong sertipikahan ng samu't-saring political parties sampu ng kanilang mga kinatawang abogado.

Sa isang scenariong halos walo ang kakandidato, magiging magulo ito sapagkat isa o dalawa kaya sa mga kumandidato ang mag kwestyon sa resulta ng isang automated na halalan, malalagay na sa tiyak na panganib at alanganin ang buong proseso ng halalan.

At hindi pa man sa pampanguluhan, daan daan din ang nagsampa ng kanilang kandidatura bilang senador. Isa man o higit pa ang magkwestyon sa resulta, tiyak na kaguluhan ang magiging resulta.

Liban pa rito ang posibilidad ng paglala ng peace and order sa mga lugar tulad ng Mindanao, CAR, Nueva Ecija, Isabela at mga tradisyunal na hot spost. Dahilan sa kulang o di sapat ang panahon sa pagtuturo ng tamang paggamit ng optical counting readers o mga makina sa pagtanggap ng balota, maaaring mabalam ng husto ang resulta para sa pambansang posisyon.

Sa sandaling hindi pa makapagdeklara ng nanalong pangulo at lumampas ito sa itinakdang panahon sa pagbubukas ng Kongreso, maaaring ito ang siyang maging pinakamabilis na kaparaanan upang itayo at i-deklara ang Speaker bilang siyang transitional president.

Sang-ayon sa Konstitusyon, ang nararapat tumayo bilang halili o transition ay ang Chief Justice. Ito ay kung hindi punan ang posisyon ng Speaker. Alalahaning sa Mayo 2010 retirado na ang Chief Justice sa katauhan ni Reynato Puno. Sa gayong estado, mayroong kapangyarihan si Ginang Arroyo na magtalaga ng isang ala-Hilarion Davide na tatayo lamang bilang rubber stamp ng Arroyo mafia. Hindi ito malayong mangyari sapagkat sa panahong iyon, kinikilala pa rin si Mrs. Arroyo bilang Pangulo.

Neto---kahit saan mong anggulo tignan, magiging magulo ang eleksyon sa Mayo, palatandaan na kung nais ng taumbayan ang isang mahinusay na transition of power, kailangang kailangang palitan ang kasalukuyang Pangulo ng bansa at tiyaking ang susunod na halalan ay magiging patas at may katahimikan.

Kris, Willie and Manny Pacquiao endorsement will not affect candidate's chance of winning, according to Pulse Asia

2009-12-03T14:40:00.001+08:00

According to the October survey of Pulse Asia, endorsements made by third parties will not affect the chances of an electoral bet. Endorsements will just, at most, affect the choice of just 11 percent of the electorate.

In fact, third party endorsement may even affect the political chances of the candidate.

Based on the survey by Pulse Asia, Kris Aquino attracts 45% of voters, higher than what Willie Revillame can do at 37%. Yet, this high rating as far as endorsements are concerned is not translate-able to votes. If Kris Aquino endorses someone, 49% of voters will not follow her lead, while 58% of voters will not be swayed by a Revillame endorsement.

Now, some say that if you're endorsed by Manny Pacquiao, you'll surely win? That's not the case. In fact, a Pacquiao endorsement would even harm your chances of winning.

Pulse Asia learned that 71% of the electorate will not follow Pacquiao's endorsement--only 21% will.

What if Mrs. Arroyo endorses you? Is it true that Arroyo's endorsement is a "kiss of death"?

Yes. If you're endorsed by Mrs. Arroyo, you'll surely earn the ire of 79% of the electorate and ONLY 15% will follow your lead.

What about the so-called "Erap Magic"? Is it still there?

Based on the survey, Erap's magic is now a myth.

If Erap endorses you, you'll alienate 59% of the electorate.

* the survey was made last October 22-30, 2009, with around 1,800 respondents.

Manny Villar personifies Gloria Arroyo

2009-12-03T07:56:00.000+08:00

For the nth time, Senator Manny Villar failed to again honor his previous commitment to the people--that after filing his Certificate of Candidacy, he will start joining presidential debates. Last night, ANC held a presidentiable forum and Villar, not even his shadow, was there.

For somebody whom reports say is very serious in his campaign for the presidency, Villar's action is not just condemnable---it shows Villar's lack of responsibility. Binabastos ni Villar ang taumbayan. Villar is mocking us. Villar just disrespected the Filipino People.

Villar's actions also reinforce the belief that he will just be using his billions just to get elected.

We cannot elect someone who does not respect us. Villar just showed that he is no different from Arroyo.

And it's days after he filed his CoC, yet, we don't even know what Villar is fighting for. We don't know his platform. Aside from motherhood statements that he is for the People and he wants to fight the scourge of poverty, what else Mr. Villar?

We don't know where Villar positions himself when it comes to the RH bill.

We don't know what Villar would do with the secessionist and insurgency problems.

We simply are in the dark as to what Villar will do with private armies.

And we simply don't know how Villar will actually help the poor, whom he claims to belong to.

Is Villar afraid to cross swords with the witty Noynoy Aquino? Is he afraid that he will lose his "mystique" when other contenders expose his lack of an indepth knowledge about the ills of this Nation?

It is very dangerous to elect such a man into office, who thinks that everything is for sale, and who thinks that he is not accountable to explain himself before the very people he wants to serve.

Mrs. Arroyo just committed subversion by design

2009-12-02T22:54:00.001+08:00

When Mrs. Arroyo filed her Certificate of Candidacy, she was, in effect, communicated something serious. Mrs. Arroyo's act was a subversion of the very institution which she took refuge for the past nine years and which lent Constitutionality to her illegitimate dictatorship.

Mrs. Arroyo and her minions know that they will be smearing the very name and essence of this institution which we know as the Office of the President. They know that this is the first time that a Chief Executive, the Commander-in-Chief, at that, will be doing an act which many term as a "debasement" of the Institution of the Executive.

This act is not just a show of spite against detractors nor was it a purely egotistic act by a diminutive megalomaniac. No. It has a purpose. And the purpose is simply charter change.

That singular act of filing the CoC, shows you how determined and how strong the will of Mrs. Arroyo and her minions is in achieving their strategic objective. The objective is render the Office of the President useless in the scheme of things. In fact, the real goal is strip the Office of the President of real Power and shift it to the Prime Minister-ship.

By abandoning the presidency and leaving it for the Opposition and other political forces to fight it out, Mrs. Arroyo and her minions just formalized the real and serious effort at cha-cha. Mrs. Arroyo wants to strip the Office of the President bare, without real power to prosecute her or her mafia of crimes against the People. That's the most logical thing to do for somebody who fears prosecution---make this Institution weak and toothless and rob it of real power.

Come 2010, the Presidency will just be a crown encrusted with fake jewels. For real power or the loci of State Power will eventually lie in the Prime Minister's office.

That's why the cost of this act, is nothing compared with the possibility of achieving real victory in the end. This debasement of the Office of the President, of rendering the entire Republic as a laughing stock of the entire civilized world, is nothing compared with the stronger chance of making charter change a law come 2010. Being ridiculed is momentary. Yet, being in power is stationary.

The Opposition is expected to win the elections, not the entire war. For the Arroyo administration, the war is a Power Struggle. The Opposition's sights is on the Presidency, which they consider as a crown jewel. Arroyo's sights is set on Congress since she knows that in a post May 2010 scenario, Congress acting as a Parliament, will exercise real power than the Presidency. In the struggle between an elected president and a strong Congress, it is Congress that usually wins.

For nine years, that was not the case, since the Executive used all the liberties and all the freedoms that she can use under the old Charter. The very act of filing that CoC has shown us how Arroyo made the old charter her tool to achieve her strategic goal. By using these liberties afforded by law, Mrs. Arroyo just subverted the very Institution which she sits as Chief Executive in order to turn it around and make it stand on its head.

Now, the Chief Executive has "sacrificed" herself by wittingly diminishing her stature (not Power) and waiting for the right time to further diminish the Office which she holds and shift its power to Congress. It will not surprise us to see Mrs. Arroyo holding the Spectre of State Power while the one who spent so much just to get elected as president, languish and wail when he realizes he holds an empty bag.

Sapat na Ginang Arroyo; huwag mong antaying mapuno ang salop ng taumbayan

2009-12-02T21:36:00.000+08:00

Hindi na nagpatumpik-tumpik pa si Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita hinggil sa pagkandidato ni Pangulong Arroyo bilang kongresista sa Pampanga---hangad ni Mrs. Arroyo na mabago ang Konstitusyon at kanya itong pamumunuan sa sandaling hirangin siya bilang kinatawan ng kamara.

Ayon kay Ermita, ilang beses nang nabigo si Mrs. Arroyo. Ilang beses nang mapurnada ang balaking ito ng mga kalaban ng pamahalaan. Umaasa aniya si Mrs. Arroyo na mababago ito sa sandaling matapos ang eleksyon sa Mayo 2010.

Sa direktang pag-aming ito ni Ermita, direkta din dapat ang sagot sa problemang ito na ang pangalan ay Arroyo---nararapat na ipamukha ng taumbayan kay Ginang Arroyo sampu ng kanyang mga alipores na sapat na ang siyam na taon niya sa kapangyarihan. Sapat na ang ipinagkatiwalang oras at panahon ng taumbayan sa kanyang bangkaroteng pamahalaan. Sapat na ang bilyon-bilyong pisong ninakaw niya pati ng iba pang mga kawatan sa pamahalaan. Sapat na.

Kung hindi mapahinuhod si Ginang Arroyo sa kanyang kahibangan. Kung magpapatuloy siya sa kanyang balaking ipahiya ang Tanggapan ng Pangulo at kung ipagpapatuloy niya ang kanyang gahamang pamamahala, walang ibang paraan kundi maipagkaisa ang taumbayan, at bago pa man ang halalan, kitlin ang mga pangarap na ito sa pamamagitan ng isang nakapangyayaring rebolusyon.

Sa mga nagnanais ng bagong umaga---panahon na upang aminin natin sa ating mga sarili na hindi halalan ang sagot sa ating mga suliranin kundi bago pa man tayo gumastos ng isang kusing, bago pa man pormal na isagawa ang halalan at bago pa man natin simulan ang demokratikong pagbabago--aminin natin ang kahalagahan ng rebolusyon.

Sa pagsampa ni Mrs. Arroyo sa halalan, binigyang diin niya at halaga na hindi halalan ang tatapos sa kahibangang may tatak at markang Arroyo. Matatapos ang kahibangan sa pamamagitan ng puwersahang pagpapatalsik sa kanya sa puwesto.

Panahon na upang ang mga Bagong Pilipino sa Bagong Henerasyon ay magsitayo at magsipanindigan tungo sa tunay na Pagbabago.

Rebolusyon, hindi muna eleksyon.

Hustisya muna bago halalan.

Gordon leads the Transformers

2009-12-02T12:07:00.000+08:00

Good that Senator Richard "Dick" Gordon threw his hat unto the presidential derby. Gordon has the guts, the wit and the PR savvy-ness. He probably has the vision to see this country thru dark times. And he may, probably, split middle class support for Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar.

The bad thing though, he aligned himself with the self-professed Sheriff of Nottingham, the great egoist, MMDA chairman Bayani Fernando. Let's brace ourselves for the worst if Bayani gets elected.

Imagine if Gordon gives him the MMDA or the DILG. Bayani will fight the informal settlers, the poor and the down-trodded. Instead of fighting for their rights, Bayani will spearhead the likes of Palparan in further making their lives difficult.

Yet, the VNP seems to be in the right direction. They have the right vision. They probably lack resources but, who knows? Maybe they'll be able to hack it against the likes of billionaire Manny Villar, the necropolitician Noynoy Aquino, the militarist with a beautiful wife Gibo Teodoro or the arthritis-free Joseph Estrada. Who knows? We need a kicker. And it may be Gordon.

Umurong si David laban kay Gollum, este Gloria

2009-12-02T11:09:00.000+08:00

Isa ako sa mga naniwala (naloko?) ni Prof. Randy David nang tumayo siya't nagsabing kakalabanin niya si Gng. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sakaling tumakbo itong Congresswoman sa second district ng Pampanga. Kilala si David bilang isang aktibistang propesor at lider ng mass movements. Sa tono at asta ni David, mukhang seryoso itong kakalaban kay Arroyo sa sandaling magsampa ito ng CoC.

Nagsampa ng CoC si Arroyo. Atras naman si Randy David. Bastos, ni hindi nagbigay ng dahilan kung bakit tumakbong bahag ang buntot.

Ni hindi man lang nagbigay ng dahilan kung ano ang naging dahilan bakit bumigay at dali-daling sumakay ng kanyang motorsiklo't nagtago.

Noon, nag-asta pang motorcycle rider for change. Yun pala motorcycle rider for loose change.

Masamang sabihin dahil kaibigan ko ang kanyang anak, pero, nagkaroon kaya ng pag-uusap sa pagitan ni David at Gloria? Batid nating magkaibigan ang dalawang pamilya bago magkasira.

Magkano kaya...o ano kayang posisyon ang kapalit?

Kumbaga mas may bayag ang isang Electronics Engineer, isang Felimon Serrano kumbaga sa umastang champion ng masang si Randy David.

Kaduda-duda ang kanyang pag-atras. Hindi aniya siya sanay sa pulitika samantalang sa kabila ng kanyang pagiging isang propesor sa sociology, panay panay ang pamumulitika ni David.

Nang bata pa si David, tumakbong student council chairman yan sa ilalim ng social democrats, isang grupong alang direksyon kundi ang akademya. Talo sa mga ND (National Democrats).

Kilala si David noon sa U.P., hindi bilang Marxista kundi isang dilawang Sosyalistang walang bayag.

Sa mga nakaraang EDSA (uno at dos), pumusisyon itong si David at para sa ano? Para ba ang kanyang asawa ay makakuha ng pwesto sa gobyerno? Gayun nga siguro.

Wala talagang aasahan sa mga taga-Lubao. Manggagamit.

Sa laban kay Gollum, walang ibang dapat asahan kundi ang lakas ng Sambayanang Pilipinong sawa na sa kalokohan at kagahaman. Gyera ang kapalit sa sanlaksang panggagantyo ng duwendeng taga-Lubao.

Can't get enough of the Cayetanos, Pimentels and Estradas?

2009-12-02T08:44:00.000+08:00

The problem with us Filipinos, especially those in power, is that we think that politics is a profession. Let me say this---politics is NOT a job nor a profession--it was created purposely to serve the interests of the majority.

There is a mistaken notice in these parts that politics is a job. No.

Look at the Cayetanos. Pia and Alan Peter Cayetano serve as senators. Alan Peter's brother, Renren, serves as councilor of the lone district of Taguig, their hometown.

Today, Alan Peter's wife, Lani, will file her COC for mayor of Taguig. Lani will abandon her Congressional post and Renren will replace her in Congress. So there. Taguig, it seems, is Cayetano's fiefdom.

Senator Aquilino Pimentel wants to retire and has fielded his daughter Atty. Gwen Pimentel to run for the Senate under the Nacionalista Party. Should Koko wins his electoral protest case against Senator Migz Zubiri and Gwen also wins, there would be two Pimentels serving as Senators.

Another example is the Ejercito-Estradas. Loi gave way to Jinggoy who is now running for re-election. Should Joseph Estrada, the clan patriarch, wins the presidency, two Estradas will occupy both the legislative and the executive departments. Erap's common-law wife, and the mother of JV Ejercito, is running for the mayoral post in San Juan.

So, if we hate the guts of the Ampatuans in Maguindanao who practically control one province, don't be shocked. This dynastic phenomena happens everywhere.

In Ilocos Sur, Cong. Eric Singson is retiring. He will be replaced by his son, Owen. Imelda Marcos, of course, has filed her CoC to replace Bongbong Marcos for Congress.

Same goes to Mrs. Arroyo who will replace Mikey, her son, as Second District representative in Pampanga. Mikey will go against Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio. Mikey's brother Dato Arroyo is seeking a second term in Bicol, while his aunt, will again run for Congresswoman either under the same partylist or thru legislative district.

In Quezon City, Mayor Sonny Belmonte guns for Congress while his daughter runs for the vice mayoral post with Vice Mayor Bistek Bautista.

Valenzuela is Gatchalian territory. Sherwin guns for another crack at the mayoral post, while his brother seeks re-election as Congressman for the district.

Ampatuans seek refuge yet the State wants its own rido

2009-12-02T07:59:00.000+08:00

ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan, thru his legal counsel, Sigfrid Fortun, filed a petition asking the Supreme Court to stop the Department of Justice from arresting members of their clan. The Ampatuans say the DOJ has no right to arrest other members of their family without a warrant of arrest.

Ironic is'nt? That a supposed member of the family which placed the Philippines as one among many in the unholy gallery of the most violent countries in the world, is demanding a legal right.

I ask Zaldy---when your brother and father masterminded this gruesome massacre and your men arrested members of your rival clan, their supporters and members of the media without a warrant, did you listen when they protested?

Did you even lend a sympathetic ear when they probably asked you to spare their lives? Obviously, you did not. Police already dug up 62 cadavers, most of them rotted, mangled, and brutally and savagely killed. Men, women and children were massacred.

Zaldy, your brother did not need a warrant of arrest when he and his men stopped the victims' convoy and forcefully snatched them away from their cars. No warrant was shown. Yet, with impunity, your brother reportedly ordered their gruesome deaths.

The only language brutes know is violence. Those who resort to violence do not have the right to demand an imposition of any law.

Bongbong Marcos--a sure winner for the Senate

2009-12-02T06:42:00.000+08:00

Former First Lady Imelda Marcos also filed her bid yesterday for the Congressional district post which her son, Bongbong Marcos occupies. As you know, Bongbong is running for a Senate post. By filing her CoC, the Marcoses just wanted to maintain their influence over the entire North.

The Marcoses are still a force to reckon with in the North. Their influence spans provinces. Ilocanos respect Ferdie, the former strongman and that respect transcends political boundaries.

And surely, the Marcoses are still respected by thousands, even millions of our fellow Filipinos throughout the entire country.

Demonizing Bongbong would not affect his chances, not a bit for the Senate. Bongbong, I believe, has a very strong chance, not just because he enjoys a familiar political brandname for a surname but because for the past few years he has proven his worth as a legislator.

Admit it--many of our fellow Filipinos still admire the Marcoses. Despite their excesses when they were in power, the Marcoses are perceived to be least corrupt than the Arroyos. People hate Arroyo's guts because Arroyo, they believe, rank far inferior in terms of intellect and service to the people than the late strongman, yet show a more unquenchable thirst for power.

And why, despite the bad publicity heaped upon the Marcoses by those who fought them, does the North and the entire Nation still feel that everyone owe them a lot of favor?

Simple---during Marcos' time, people felt safer than living in a pseudo-democratic society such as this one being run by Arroyo.

Now, those who say that Bongbong deserves to be at the Senate because he espouse nationalist causes during his stint as a legislator also has a point. Bongbong, if you will, is an improved Ferdie. I would not be surprised though if, by 2016, we elect him as president. Bongbong has the same charisma as his father and boasts of the same wit and eloquence that marks a Marcos.

And as they say, the sins of the father should not be a burden of the son.

Priest blasphemed when he likened Gloria Arroyo to Jesus Christ

2009-12-02T06:22:00.000+08:00

Fr. Roland Moraleja was one of 22 priests who concelebrated the mass in Lubao Pampanga yesterday. The mass was given for Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who formalized her bid for the Congressional seat in Lubao, her hometown. What made Moraleja particularly interesting was when he likened Arroyo's descent from power as "like Jesus Christ".

Seemed like Moraleja got a huge amount of donation or he's probably aspiring for a government post for him or for one of his relatives when he said this. Or, probably the sight of gold or the promise of it made Moraleja's tongue sweeter than honey.

Or Moraleja totally forgot his biblical history or was absent when he was supposed to attend it.

That scene where Moraleja gave that blasphemous comparison was a scene out of the movie " 300". Before the Greek King went out to wage war against the King of Persia, he went there to consult the Oracle. Leprous priests keep the Oracle and people give huge sums of gold for them to know what the Gods intend.

Or that scene in the bible where both Sadducees and Pharisees meet and heap praises on the King of Judah, despite His majesty's many sins, that includes, adultery.

Or maybe Moraleja just committed blasphemy and he unwittingly did it. The worst sin, the Bible says, is when you lied and you lied knowing that you did.

Supreme Court just lost moral authority

2009-12-01T22:05:00.000+08:00

The Supreme Court just gave Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and others like her, the legal weapon to counter negative comments against them keeping their posts while running as candidates. Surprising, Arroyo filed her Certificate of Candidacy (CoC) the same day the Highest Tribunal released a Resolution on the issue. Obviously, the palace had a-priori knowledge of such a favorable decision coming from a supposedly "independent" organ of government.

When Arroyo declared her candidacy, shouts of support were heard, mostly school children invited (or coerced) by their teachers in the affair. As they say, listen to the shouts of babes. Yet, in politics, babes don't count since they don't vote. For a diminishing asset though, even babes count.

What is relevant to note though is how certain elite groups within the State are somewhat slowly exercising their power like how the mafia does things. For example, this "surprising" decisions from the Supreme Court, first on the matter of early campaigning and second, on incumbents keeping their posts while campaigning. The first definitely gives incumbents some time to entertain their constituencies which have probably expressed disatisfaction over their rules and the second, of course, again, favors the status quo. Seems like the SC has just lost its moral authority.

And in a society where morality has been relegated to the backburner, hope for change seems to dim as we approach 2010. Where do we set our sights on? Where in the world can be we get justice?

Exclusive: SENIOR AMPATUAN TO BE ARRESTED TOMORROW

2009-12-01T20:45:00.000+08:00

Military and police elements will arrest Maguindanao governor Andal Ampatuan Senior tomorrow.

Ampatuan Sr. is being tagged as the mastermind or the brains behind the dastardly massacre of 57 people in Sharif Aguak in Maguindanao.

Military officials are now in the area and has secured the Ampatuan compound. Armed elements are now in the scene and will forcefully remove Ampatuan Sr from his house if he resist arrest.

Military intelligence say heavily armed men are guarding the beleaguered governor inside his fortified mansion. These men, who also took part in the massacre, vowed to die for Ampatuan sr.

Mrs. Arroyo files her bid for Congress

2009-12-01T08:50:00.000+08:00

Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is filing her Certificate of Candidacy for Congressman today, validating earlier fears that the next administration will just be a transitory one.

It seems that the strategic end-game is charter change.

And it will happen, since Congress already passed a law calling on the election of members of the Constitutional Convention come October 2010. A measure has already been enacted appropriating a budget for this.

Now, if we are headed towards charter change by October of 2010, why are we doing this messy business of electing a president by May 2010? Why are we so a-gog in electing someone to replace Mrs. Arroyo when the role of the next will just be transitory?

For one, there will actually be a very good legal question on this.

For example, if we shift to a parliamentary setup and a Prime Minister is elected among his peers, who will be more powerful---the president who is elected at large, or the Prime Minister who is elected by the representatives of the People?

In our jurisdiction, the Supreme Court puts greater emphasis on those elected by vox populi. So, it should be the President. The question really is--come 2010 and beyond, who will have the power to appoint key positions in government---the Prime Minister or the president? Who will have a nominal role?

Now, on the realm of possibilities, this is possible. The question really is--how strong is the composition of the Senate by 2010? If the end-game is charter change, the only institution strong enough to serve as the last bulwark of democracy is the Senate. If we elect those who favor charter change by 2010 to the Senate, then, this might yet be realized by next year.

For us to repulse this plan by Mrs. Arroyo, the opposition has to get 200 seats in Congress, dominate the Senate and win the presidency. Tough order right?

From today up to May, expect fireworks from differing camps to heat the election derby up. Expect more Maguindanao massacres, since the military continues to tolerate armed groups and private armies.

Maguindanao: From Warlord to Warlord

2009-11-28T08:35:00.000+08:00

Buluan vice mayor Toto Mangundadatu successfully filed his Certificate of Candidacy for the gubernatorial post in Sharif Aguak Maguindanao. This came a few days after the massacre which led to the killing of his wife and 61 others (latest update on the Maguindanao massacre: 62 people killed). Accompanied by former defense secretary and now presidentiable, Gilbert Teodoro, Mangundadatu says the filing is just one small step towards the liberation of the Maguindanaoans. " This is freedom day" says Mangundadatu.

It probably was freedom day, since the Central Government has decided to place the entire ARMM under the DILG and the government is slowly dismantling the Ampatuan evil regime.

If you look at it though, it was probably "freedom day" for the Mangundadatus, but NOT the Maguindanaoans. The Mangundadatus can claim "freedom" because the government is doing what they failed to do---dismantle and neutralize their political enemy.

What would happen in Maguindanao is true to the rest of Mindanao should a peace pact is signed---the transfer of power from a non-Muslim hegemon to a Muslim warlord.

If Mangundadatu wins, it will just be a transfer of power from a warlord to another warlord. And that is not the solution to the Mindanao problem. For the people of Maguindanao will still be enslaved by powers controlled by the Central Government.

The only time that the Bangsamoros can really claim "freedom" is the day they, the Bangsamoro People, defeat these warlord clans, put them all in jail and establish an Independent Democratic State. If the Bangsamoros create their own Bangsamoro Islamic Liberation Army and pacify these areas controlled by armed and lawless elements, then, that would surely be Freedom Day.

I have one advice to our fellow Muslim brothers and sisters in Bangsamoro land---turn towards Allah SWT. Allah will give you peace. Struggle under Allah SWT's banner.

The Maguindanao Massacre and the Bangsamoro Struggle for Freedom

2009-11-28T08:11:00.000+08:00

Local Government secretary Ronnie Puno now heads the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) under the Executive Order signed by Mrs. Arroyo placing the entire region under a State of Emergency. The decision was based on the potential security implications of the Maguindanao incident.

This so-called "takeover" of the national government of ARMM shows one thing--it proved that the 1993 Peace Agreement is a failure. This action by the government shows that autonomy is not the best governance model for the Bangsamoros.

The best solution to the Mindanao problem is LEAVE THE BANGSAMOROS ALONE. LET THEM SEPARATE FROM THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES AND GIVE THEM THEIR OWN STATE.

By giving them their own state, they will be able to take care of themselves. They would try to resolve problems among themselves.

However, a True State status should not be GRANTED but EARNED by the Bangsamoros through struggle. There is no other way.

If self-rule emanates from a ceremonial grant from the National Government, it would just lead to violence because leadership obviously would just be transferred from a non-Muslim hegemon to a Muslim warlord hegemon.

This was obviously the game plan of the administration. The Ampatuans and the Mangundadatus were given enormous powers and influence by the palace to counter-act Bangsamoro civil society and the MILF-MNLF. If the peace pact is signed, the Ampatuans would have played a major role in the new Bangsamoro Republic.

If this happens, then, all hell would break loose. A civil war would surely happen since Bangsamoro civil society would have to fight these traditional warlord clans and their armed militias for power. The Bangsamoro struggle, therefore, would not end with a peaceful resolution of the conflict thru the bargaining table.

In fact, the peace process is just one step towards the true liberation of the Bangsamoro People.

Yet, I believe that should a civil war do break out shortly after the signing of a peace pact, it would be brief, provided that, indeed, the Philippine military is honest enough in dismantling those private armies and militias.

But, will the AFP do this? No.

Mindanao is a property being claimed by various interests. And Mindanao happens to be a strategic interest by the military.