The DiaTribe

A Lazy Sunday with Manny’s Wish List

2009-11-22T10:56:00.002-05:00

Inching closer and closer to Turkey Day with the tasks of the weekend revolving around getting the house ready for what promises to be a holiday season full of house guests, let’s get going on a Lazy Sunday with Manny Acta’s Christmas List, some roster decisions, and the latest Top Prospect rankings…and with that, we’re off:

Leading off, Manny Acta has been sitting down with anyone and everyone who will listen to him at any time that’s agreeable to them, talking about the team he inherited and what the 2010 team might look like. It seemed as if you can’t turn on the TV or the radio without seeing or hearing Acta this past week and, while he’s hit on a myriad of topics in a number of different mediums, the most informative piece cutting through the white noise that usually comes in these interviews comes (not surprisingly) from Anthony Castrovince, who sat down with the new Tribe skipper and the rest of the beat reporters over some Margherita pizza from Pickwick and Frolic.

Before getting into the meat of the conversation, does anyone else find it funny that Acta intimates that he had the exact same Margherita pizza from Pickwick and Frolic during his interview with the Indians? For some reason, I can’t get the image out of my head of Chris Antonetti walking into the room with a handful of menus, asking everyone what they’re in the mood for and with the decision to go with the Margherita Pizza from Pickwick coming after a long debate.

Maybe that’s just because things happen around here (and I would have gone with Pickwick’s Angus and Chorizo Meatloaf if I’m getting food from there…but I’m a meatloaf kind of guy), but visualizing the debate over what to have for lunch while Acta’s conducting his interview with the Indians strikes me as funny, if only putting it into the context of every other office lunch that happens every day.

Nevertheless, the topics of conversation over some pie (covered in no semblance of anorder, other than the order that I want to address them) start with the idea that the Indians are entertaining the idea of bringing in a veteran catcher, despite the fact that they seem to be overflowing with catchers on the 40-man roster. One of those names could be taken out of that mix (Mr. Show Pack) although AC reports that “Acta said that Shoppach is still in the Indians' plans at this moment.”

The fact that they’re even entertaining this notion should be the final stroke on the writing on the wall that ShopVac is not in this team’s plans, immediate or long-term, and while I’ve seen this talk of adding a veteran catcher to “handle the pitching staff” before, I’ll ask again – aren’t the catchers on the 40-man roster the SAME guys who have caught these young pitchers throughout their Minor-League careers? Between Toregas, Gimenez (although he’s probably no more than an emergency catcher now…although that doesn’t mean that he still doesn’t know these pitchers), Marson, and Santana, wouldn’t there be some credence in allowing these pitchers to mature to MLB throwing to battery mates who know their strengths, weaknesses, game plans, and personalities?

Instead of going out and getting a veteran catcher, how about developing a viable back-up catcher of our own for the league minimum to serve as a sounding board for these young pitchers? With that in mind, take a quick look at an absolutely fascinating Q & A with Dave Huff and Lou Marson from David Laurila at B-Pro that sheds a little light on the pitcher/catcher relationship and how it develops as players get to know each other. If that’s not enough for you and you’re still talking about adding that wisdom that a veteran catcher brings…um, isn’t that what the Indians brought Sandy Alomar here for, to impart some of the knowledge that he’s gleaned over the years as an MLB catcher onto his young charges and onto the pitching staff?

With Sandy and his infinite wisdom that fueled all of that 1990’s glory, what’s the point of going out and getting a veteran backstop on a team that has FOUR catchers (three if you don’t count Shoppach, five if you count both Shoppach and Gimenez) on the 40-man roster, all seemingly “ready” (and I use that term loosely) for MLB?

As a quick aside on Sandy before getting into the rest of the Acta conversation, here’s how the Indians were allowed to get Sandy out of Queens, as Sandy essentially asked the Mets to go to Cleveland and the Mets (with Shapiro’s good buddy Omar Minaya calling the shots) acquiesced. If I may make a suggestion as to what Alomar can do now that he’s had his wish granted to return to the organization, it would be to put Sandy in Santana’s back pocket in Goodyear and leave the two of them alone to discuss the ins and outs of being an MLB catcher.

Speaking of former Indians and transitioning to the oft-stated need for Utility IF that Acta alludes to, I think I have the perfect solution for bringing back a slick-fielding ex-Indian very highly regarded in the organization that is currently available on the Free Agent market.
The answer to the question on everyone’s mind is…John McDonald!

No, I’m not kidding and I ask you to consider the following if we’re talking about improving the 2010 team and not just re-living the glory days of the 1990’s (whether or not the rumors of Alvaro Espinoza’s return have been brilliantly exaggerated), in terms of what type of skill set both McDonald and another certain former Indian would bring to the 2010 club:
Johnny Mac – TOR – 2009 (Age 34)
.258 BA / .271 OBP / .384 SLG / .655 OPS in 156 plate appearances over 73 games

Omar Vizquel – TEX – 2009 (Age 42)
.266 BA / .316 OBP / .345 SLG / .660 OPS in 195 plate appearances over 62 games

Sure, this is a little tongue-in-cheek, but it’s done so more to point out that a certain segment of the fanbase is clamoring for the return of Omar (who looks to be going to the South Side), whose performance last year was on par with that put forth by John McDonald in Toronto. I’m not averse to great memories and embracing the history of the Indians, but if we’re talking about a player that’s going to get one start a week while serving as a defensive replacement, pinch runner, and a bat off the bench, signing McDonald (for what would be significantly less than Vizquel’s looking for) makes more sense than a return to the North Coast for Omarvelous.

If you’re looking for a versatile Futility IF who isn’t going to be expected to be much more than a RH complement to Valbuena until Donald is ready and essentially be a defensive replacement at that time, why not Johnny Mac?

Realistically, they shouldn’t even be spending money on a Utility IF and should be combing over the Minor-League FA list and seeing if a guy like Chris Burke could handle the workload until Donald is ready. We’re not looking for Chone Figgins here to play everyday at four different positions or Jose Oquendo to play every position, just someone who falls somewhere between Mike Rouse and Jamey Carroll (yes, Jamey Carroll is the ideal player that I’m putting out there) in terms of performance.

Taking a deeper look at that MiLB FA list and changing the subject completely, would there be any thought of taking a shot at Chad Cordero on a Minor League deal?

Even though Acta said that he’s “very happy with what we have” in the bullpen, if the Indians (hopefully) have learned anything in the past few years, it’s that there can never be too many bullpen arms to throw up against the wall. There is a connection between Acta and Cordero, as Acta was Cordero’s manager in Washington while Cordero saved 66 games in 2006 and 2007 (while posting an ERA+ of 127 over those two years) and there would be some familiarity there for Acta and Cordero. If Cordero can recover from his injuries that have shelved him for the better part of two years, having him as a potential option in the 2010 bullpen or even a reclamation project for the latter part of 2010 isn’t as bile-inducing as spending significant money on a FA pitcher like…I don’t know a Braden Looper or Todd Wellemeyer or someone other suspect for the rotation.

Really, why spend a couple million dollars on the lesser lights of starting pitchers in the FA class if they’re no more of a sure bet than a guy like Chris Capuano, also a MiLB FA, or look to make a move for that arm because, as Acta says in the AC piece, “We might still [get a pitcher], because you have to cover yourself. You can never go into Spring Training short on pitching.”

If we’re talking about arms, why not take a look at the arbitration-eligibles from the Marlins as they have a history of dealing their arbitration-eligible players? Guys like Matt Lindstrom or Ricky Nolasco (listed as a potential trade candidate in this piece from Matthew Pouliat of NBC Sports in a FANTASTIC series analyzing Free Agency) could possibly be had from Florida for the right package of young (and, more importantly, cheap) players.

Jumping off from the mention of Nolasco and staying with the aforementioned Pouliat piece, he does project an interesting group of pitchers that he identifies as potential “trade candidates”. If we’re going with that idea of a trade to supplement the rotation by UPGRADING it and not simply adding an arm in there to eat innings in front of the youngsters, the ones that could be available (ignoring the Roy Halladay stratosphere and the Kei Igawa depths) that stand out include Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), Edwin Jackson (Tigers), Ricky Nolasco (Marlins), Jonathan Sanchez (Giants), Zach Duke (Pirates), Aaron Harang (Reds), Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Manny Parra (Brewers), John Maine (Mets), Kevin Correia (Padres), Andy Sonnanstine (Rays), Collin Balester (Nationals), Kyle Kendrick (Phillies), Ian Kennedy (Yankees), and Jo-Jo Reyes (Braves).

How many of those guys are legitimately “available” and not just the subject of conjecture by a baseball writer is up for argument, as is whether some of them represent much of an upgrade over what the Indians already have in-house. But there are some names in there that could certainly represent an upgrade AND be names that would still be in the rotation in 2011 and beyond. If you want a list of players that the Indians should be looking at instead of perusing former Indians on the FA list or looking for the next Carl Pavano, there’s what the list should look like…

As for the other “need” addressed by Acta, a RH bat who can play some 1B and (while they’re not saying it out loud) complement Hafner at DH if he still can’t play every game, I hit on this a while back, but those pickings are slim and none and if the idea is to not unnecessarily spend money on a non-vital part of the team, give that RH bat role to Andy Marte and just be done with it.

Moving away from Acta’s Magical Media Tour, the big news of the week came with the roster decisions made and the impact of those decisions on potential Rule 5 draftees. As usual, Tony Lastoria is on the whole matter like white on rice. One of the players not rostered by the Indians will join Tony and I for a special Sunday edition of “Smoke Signals” as we’ll welcome in LHP Chuck Lofgren after hitting on all of the pertinent topics starting at 9:30 tonight.

Speaking of young players, rostered and non-rostered, here is the latest from Kevin Goldstein’s “Future Shock” at Baseball Prospectus, which lists the Top 11 prospects in the Indians’ organization (actually, Goldstein goes as deep as 15) as Goldstein provides a tremendous summary for each.

Portions of the article are pay content, but let me just quickly summarize (though it doesn’t do justice to the depth of the piece) that Goldstein sees an organization deep in talent and thinks that Santana is a likely perennial All-Star, that Chisenhall is a sweet-swinging 3B with 20-25 HR potential who could be the Opening Day 3B in 2011 (when The Chiz would still only be 22 years old), that Jason Knapp will be full healthy when pitchers and catchers report and figures to form 1/3 of the triumvirate of power arm stable (with Alex White and Nick Hagadone) that should be floating around Kinston and Akron this year, and that Asdrubal Cabrera (listed 2nd to Santana under “Top Talents 25 and Under) is a “future star”.

I’ll leave you with that bit of optimism because the holidays are a time for joy…at least as soon as I can finish moving items up and down from the attic in anticipation of another holiday season here at The Reservation.

Tomahawks from a New Bench

2009-11-17T21:32:00.006-05:00

While everyone attempts to erase the events of Monday night on the lakefront from their memories, let’s fire a few tomahawks off to cover the latest happenings on The Reservation with a more complete coaching staff, more projections, and some Must-See-TV...let ‘em loose:
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The Indians’ coaching staff continues to be filled out as Sandy Alomar, Jr., Scott Radinsky, Tim Tolman, and Steve Smith join Tim Belcher on the Tribe bench as the new First Base Coach/catching coordinator (Alomar), bullpen coach (Radinsky), bench coach (Tolman) and Third Base coach/infielder coach (Smith). Following along the idea that the staff would be populated by internal options (Radinsky to join Belcher) and external candidates (Tolman, Smith, and most recently Alomar); the Indians’ coaching staff is starting to get fleshed out.

In terms of the most recognizable name added to the big-league staff, the name of Sandy Alomar, Jr. obviously tugs at the heartstrings, as memories of “Sandy the Player” cannot be ignored, nor can his place in Indians’ lore. The announcement came as a bit of a surprise as it had been previously reported that Sandy was on the Mets’ coaching staff and that he was essentially “off-limits” to the Indians in terms of him simply making a lateral move to another organization. Regardless of how it went down, Alomar joins the staff to…well, stand at First Base and do what Luis Rivera did for…I don’t know, must have been a few years, and to handle the coaching of the catchers.

While his First Base coach duties figure to be pretty forgettable (quick, tell me who the First Base Coach was during the run in the 1990’s), his mentoring of the young catchers is where Alomar hopefully makes an impression. Given that Carlos Santana is likely to be the Indians’ everyday catcher by the middle of the season, one would have to think that Alomar’s main job will be to tutor Santana into becoming a complete catcher instead of simply a hitting machine with unpolished receiving skills and a propensity for (as Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein called it) “histrionics” behind the plate that didn’t sit too well with opponents. A long time ago, on a coast far, far away from Cleveland, Alomar was a similarly hyped young prospect who translated his promise to MLB success, a transition he can hopefully impart on Santana.

While the emotional attachments are terrific for some (and I could be wrong but I’m not anticipating a flood of the phone banks at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario tomorrow morning based on this news), let’s hope that those emotional strings did not play the largest role in Alomar’s hiring. Re-living and relishing the past only gets one so far, so it remains to be seen if “Sandy the Coach” rivals “Sandy the Player” in terms of organizational impact. While that impact may be a hard thing to measure and at the risk of sounding heartless, “Sandy the Coach” is the only one that I care about going forward because the 1990’s were great times for Indians’ fans...but I’m more interested in creating memories and not just remembering them.

After Alomar, the name that most people have likely heard of belongs to Scott Radinsky, who climbs one rung up the organizational ladder to preside over the Indians’ bullpen after serving as the AAA pitching coach in Columbus. He comes with a resume built on his time as a reliever in MLB and an apparent ability to rectify mechanical problems, something he did most notably with Stomp Lewis in 2008. While his results of returning a pitcher to their past successes were not universal when sent down to AAA (Rafael Perez in 2009 being the obvious example), he now has a chance to do his tinkering at the big-league level in an attempt to maximize the arms that project to the 2010 bullpen.

Most of the pitchers that figure into the 2010 bullpen are pitchers that he’s coached already (Wood and Chris Perez being the exceptions) and with his area of expertise (at least from his playing days) having to do with relieving, the time is right for him to ply his craft at the big-league level and perhaps allow some of the other MiLB pitching coaches in the organization (like Akron’s Ruben Niebla) to climb that organizational ladder to the next rung. While it could be argued that Radinsky is getting this gig a year too late, his familiarity with the arms on hand (and his success with them) should allow the name Chuck Hernandez to drift away into the wind.

Beyond Alomar and Radinsky, the other new coach with a history with the Indians organization is Tim Tolman (mistaken by some for Red Forman from “That 70’s Show”), as Tolman was the Indians’ Minor League Field Coordinator from 2003 to 2006. What a “Minor League Field Coordinator” does is not my area of expertise, but Tolman should have some level of familiarity with the organization while providing that “fresh set of eyes” that many desired in John Farrell in that Tolman was around for the period of building the team that competed in 2005 and 2007 and left only when offered the position of Third Base Coach in Washington in 2007.

Interestingly, Tolman was Manny Acta’s manager in Burlington (the Astros’ Single-A affiliate) in 1991, Acta’s last year as a player and Tolman’s first year as a minor-league manager. Thus, the two are intimately familiar with each other as Tolman also served on Acta’s staff in Washington, though not as Acta’s bench coach. The thought was out there that Acta’s bench coach would be someone with managerial experience with someone like Acta’s former bench coach in Washington, Pat Corrales, perhaps fitting that bill…except that Corrales retired last year because of health issues. Regardless of whether anyone can even articulate what a bench coach does (other than handing in lineup cards and playing devil’s advocate to the manager), I’m inclined to give Acta the benefit of the doubt in terms of knowing what type of personality he wants on the bench to be the yin to his yang in handling game situations.

Speaking of types of personality, it would certainly seem that the Indians netted themselves someone who would projects a fiery personality in new 3B coach/infield instructor Steve Smith, formerly of the Phillies, among others. A quick Google search not only finds this marvelous picture but also this beautiful bit of reporting following a three-game suspension that he took in 2007:
“Do I think [three games is] harsh? Yeah,” Smith said. “They explained it was because I came out on the field. That’s one day. The other two days are for my history. I’ve been thrown out a few times over the years.”

With the Rangers last season, Smith was suspended for five games for arguing a call with umpire Brian O’Nora. Mark Teixeira was called out on a play at the plate, and Smith ran in to argue, inadvertently spitting some chewing tobacco in O’Nora’s eye.

Though unintentional, Smith received a five-game suspension. The three games Smith got for Sunday’s incident were equal to the punishment levied to Cubs hitting coach Gerald Perry, who got into an altercation during Saturday's game between the Cubs and Padres.

Smith feels he was misunderstood. He believes that umpires consider the suggestion of disrespect objectionable and subject to ejection.

”They make it sound coaches just have to sit there and take it,” Smith said. “When an umpire is cursing me out, and all I said was, ‘We got it,’ and he threw me out. He couldn’t wait for me to even move. You can’t breathe.”

Who said this team needs a little hell, fire, and brimstone after the monotony of the last seven years?
Enter Steve Smith, with the only question being what uniform he’s going to wear so we can all roll around the corner of Carnegie and Ontario with base coach helmets and wads of tobacco tucked away in our lips.

But I digress, the one name that still seems to be missing from the coaches appointed is quite obviously Torey Lovullo, who most assumed would find a spot among Acta’s staff after he was given the opportunity to interview for the managerial position and paying his organizational dues. The hirings of Smith (3B Coach/Infielders) and to a lesser degree Alomar (1B Coach/Catchers) likely removes any possibility that Lovullo joins the Indians’ coaching staff in any capacity. The only as-yet-unnamed position to be filled is that of the Hitting Coach and Manny Acta stated on WTAM on Tuesday morning that he was had recently been to Venezuela (where Jon Nunally is the hitting coach for Caracas in the Venezuelan Winter League) to interview “internal candidates” for the job.

Whether Nunally gets the Hitting Coach gig, Lovullo remains on the outside looking in and may be looking at a return trip to helm the Clippers in 2010 unless the Indians find another spot for him in the organization (one that would be seen as a promotion) or if he finds himself outside of the organization after being passed over for the newly named coaching staff.
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Last week, the Bill James 2010 Handbook projections became fodder for discussion and a new week brings a new set of projections – this time from CHONE, who provides his 2010 projections, even if it is only for hitters at this point. His projections are not far off from those of Bill James (shown under BJ2K10), that I’ll put up there again for comparison’s sake:
Catcher
Lou Marson
CHONE
.251 BA / .339 OBP / .347 SLG / .686 OPS with 3 HR in 291 AB over 110 games
BJ2K10
.280 BA / .372 OBP / .360 SLG / .732 OPS with 1 HR in 150 AB over 49 games

Kelly Shoppach
CHONE
.229 BA / .322 OBP / .422 SLG / .744 OPS with 14 HR in 301 AB over 101 games
BJ2K10
.249 BA / .333 OBP / .465 SLG / .798 OPS with 19 HR in 381 AB over 113 games

Carlos Santana
CHONE
.243 BA / .332 OBP / .390 SLG / .722 OPS with 8 HR in 313 AB over 122 games
BJ2K10
.270 BA / .356 OBP / .419 SLG / .775 OPS with 16 HR in 503 AB over 128 games

First Base
Matt LaPorta
CHONE
.268 BA / .341 OBP / .467 SLG / .808 OPS with 18 HR in 422 AB over 133 games
BJ2K10
.266 BA / .334 OBP / .468 SLG / .802 OPS with 20 HR in 451 AB over 121 games

Second Base
Luis Valbuena
CHONE
.258 BA / .326 OBP / .393 SLG / .719 OPS with 8 HR in 387 AB over 131 games
BJ2K10
.257 BA / .323 OBP / .399 SLG / .722 OPS with 9 HR in 366 AB over 103 games

Jason Donald
CHONE
.241 BA / .307 OBP / .353 SLG / .660 OPS with 5 HR in 348 AB over 116 games
BJ2K10
Not available

Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera
CHONE
.285 BA / .355 OBP / .411 SLG / .766 OPS with 7 HR in 470 AB over 138 games
BJ2K10
.294 BA / .358 OBP / .421 SLG / .779 OPS with 9 HR in 582 AB over 157 games

Third Base
Jhonny Peralta
CHONE
.257 BA / .326 OBP / .406 SLG / .732 OPS with 16 HR in 579 AB over 151 games
BJ2K10
.269 BA / .336 OBP / .424 SLG / .760 OPS with 16 HR in 531 AB over 146 games

Andy Marte
CHONE
.262 BA / .315 OBP / .443 SLG / .758 OPB with 15 HR in 409 AB over 127 games
BJ2K10
.258 BA / .320 OBP / .452 SLG / .772 OPB with 6 HR in 155 AB over 65 games

Outfield
Grady Sizemore
CHONE
.276 BA / .373 OBP / .493 SLG / .866 OPS with 24 HR in 525 AB over 130 games
BJ2K10
.272 BA / .369 OBP / .484 SLG / .853 OPS with 25 HR in 574 AB over 144 games

Shin-Soo Choo
CHONE
.280 BA / .368 OBP / .456 SLG / .824 OPS with 15 HR in 472 AB over 135 games
BJ2K10
.293 BA / .383 OBP / .467 SLG / .850 OPS with 19 HR in 583 AB over 156 games

Mike Brantley
CHONE
.273 BA / .349 OBP / .358 SLG / .707 OPS with 3 HR in 377 AB over 129 games
BJ2K10
.268 BA / .342 OBP / .335 SLG / .677 OPS with 4 HR in 526 AB over 130 games

Trevor Crowe
CHONE
.255 BA / .331 OBP / .371 SLG / .702 OPS with 5 HR in 364 AB over 116 games
BJ2K10
.260 BA / .335 OBP / .360 SLG / .695 OPS with 3 HR in 311 AB over 93 games

Designated Hitter
Travis Hafner
CHONE
.259 BA / .353 OBP / .449 SLG / .802 OPS with 18 HR in 410 AB over 112 games
BJ2K10
.275 BA / .385 OBP / .495 SLG / .880 OPS with 16 HR in 309 AB over 98 games

Don’t ask me how “at-bats” or “games played” is determined (or whether the math on it even works out), but anyone else notice that CHONE is the second set of projections that have Andy Marte putting up better numbers in 2010 than Jhonny Peralta?

CHONE is not nearly as bullish on Hafner or any of the catching options as Bill James is, and these projections should be taken as just that (which historically look on the low side every time they come out), but it’s interesting nonetheless to see what an unbiased projection of the 2010 offense looks like.
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Winding it down, Manny Acta appeared on “More Sports & Les Levine” on Monday night, when most everyone was getting ready for the event on the Lakefront, listening to the blathering of the ESPN talking heads prior to kick-off while Acta was on MS&LL.

If you did miss it, here is a little highlight clip with Acta hitting on how every team is looking for starting pitching “unless you can just go out and buy two starters every year” (in a nice dig at the Evil Empire), why Sizemore is likely to lead off (high OBP regardless of strikeouts and to allow Brantley to ease into the lineup) at least to start the season, attempting to explain the enigma that his Jhonny Peralta, how he thinks that putting an emphasis on winning in Spring Training could be a solution to a better start to the season, why the “wide open” nature of the AL Central (which is just as good as saying mediocrity of the division) was one of the things that lured him to Cleveland, his preference for a set line-up, and his optimism on Hafner’s health.

The clip (only 6:20, so worth a listen) gets across Acta’s affable personality and his optimism for next year and while he doesn’t say anything different than what was heard from the former manager, it does come from a new voice. If anything can be taken from the interview, it is that “new voice” that Acta brings that will hopefully breathe new life into a club that had become moribund and listless.

Finally, MLB Network is currently running their “30 Clubs, 30 Recaps” series during their “Hot Stove” show throughout the month of November and the Indians go under the microscope of Reynolds, Leiter, and Heymann on Wednesday, November 18th at 6:00 PM. If you miss it and forget to set the DVR, it will replay on MLB Network at 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM on Wednesday.

After what transpired on Monday night on the lakefront, thinking about Spring and the Indians may be a welcome transgression as you pull your “ALOMAR 15” jersey out of the back of the closet because I know you weren’t still wearing it…were you?

Lazy Sunday Around the Central

2009-11-15T09:28:00.004-05:00

Another weekend on the North Coast, another 50-plus degree Sunday with no NFL to ruin my day and take away from the majesty that is Fall in Cleveland, even if we are in mid-November and simply living the dream with this recent weather. Nevertheless, it is Sunday and it’s time to get down to brass tax by hammering out a Lazy one before heading out to the park with The DiaperTribe to work on that curveball…I’m kidding, maybe. Whether I’m kidding or not, let’s get loose on a Lazy Sunday:

With very little happening around the Wigwam, outside of Buster Olney’s not-so-shocking “revelation” (Insider only) that the Indians would listen to offers for Kerry Wood and that with the glut of closers on the market, the Indians aren’t going to get much for Wood unless they “eat some money” on his deal, maybe we’ll take this in another direction to whirl around the Central, if only to check in on what the off-season is looking like for the rest of the division.

As a nice introduction to this trip around the Central comes from SI.com’s Cliff Corcoran, who dips his toe into the shallow pool that is the AL Central, with his take on the outlook for the Indians in 2010 not looking too far off what many feel:
With a new manager in place, the Indians are loaded with prospects, many of whom have already been rushed to the majors due simply to the lack of viable alternatives, and will spend the next couple of seasons sorting through their booty in an attempt to turn all that raw talent into a winning ball club.

Sounds about right as, unless something major happens this off-season (and adding a utility infielder, even if his name is Omar, doesn’t count as “major” or even as a good move given his age and his struggles against LHP, despite the goodwill it would create for PR), the Indians are likely going with the team as it’s presently constructed, having made their major moves in July of this past year. The “booty” from those moves will have be developed and turned into a “winning ball club”…but that’s old news.

Despite the opinions on the Indians’ chances for contending in the AL Central in 2010 ranging from “eh…maybe I could see it if EVERYTHING goes right” to “not bloody likely”, looking around the rest of the Central, it should come as no surprise that the division looks to be weak (and maybe weaker that 2009, in fact) and there for the taking for nearly any team…no, not you Kansas City.

As for the biggest news of the off-season pertaining to the AL Central, it’s been reported by more than one media outlet that the Tigers are looking to shed payroll in a big way…and fast:
Owner Mike Ilitch, whose liberal spending for downtrodden Detroit bolstered the Tigers in tough times, now finally appears ready to cut back. Tigers people told competing GMs they'd be willing to listen to offers for center fielder Curtis Granderson, pitcher Edwin Jackson, perhaps third baseman Brandon Inge and others in an effort to curtail their payroll only a year before several big contracts will expire. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski doesn't call it a fire sale. But one competing GM said, "I feel sorry for them." Sounds like some sort of sale.

In case you’re wondering what “several big contracts” look like, consider who the Tigers will be paying in 2010 and what dollar amounts will be doled out to each:
Cabrera - $20M
Magglio - $18M
Guillen - $13M
Bonderman - $12.5M
Dontrelle - $12M
Robertson - $10M

Excluding the Miggy deal (as he’s the only name on that list that even comes close to justifiably cashing those checks), that’s $65.5M for three pitchers who aren’t likely to be in the rotation or anywhere near the back-end of the bullpen, and two players who are both around 35 years old whose numbers have steadily declined in each of the last two seasons nearly to the point of mediocrity.

Counter that with the news that the Tigers are looking to move the 29-year-old Granderson (owed $23.75M under his current deal through 2012 with a $13M option and a $2M buyout in 2013), the 26-year-old Jackson (arbitration eligible, but under club control for the next two years), and the 32-year-old Inge (owed $6.6M in 2010, the final year of his deal), and it would seem that the Tigers are in a definite transitional phase here.

While moving Granderson and Jackson certainly look short-sighted given the team’s lack of a suitable replacement for either and could have been blown out of proportion in an obviously slow MLB news week, the decisions made in Detroit this off-season are going to go a long way in determining not only what the team will look like in 2010, but more importantly past 2010 when a lot (but not all) of those bad contracts come off of the books.

If you’re pegging the off-season in Detroit as potentially franchise-changing, what can be said about what figures to be happening in the Twin Cities, as the team is ready to move into a new ballpark for 2010 and is looking to lock up their hometown hero, their best player Joe Mauer past 2010, his final season under contract with the Twinkies?
How’s that for a watershed off-season?

The Twins have already been active with their addition of JJ Hardy (who figures to get a raise from the $4.65M he earned last year through the arbitration process in the hopes that he can improve on his .659 OPS from a year ago in Milwaukee) and by picking up the $10.5M option on Michael Cuddyer, a move seen by ESPN.com’s Rob Neyer as a confusing move in a long line of “double-standard” contracts from the Twins:
But the Twins have a history of overspending on decent players while complaining about the high price of truly great players. Remember, it was just a year ago that they couldn't afford Johan Santana but quite happily blew $9 million on Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. And if they're not able to keep Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the long term, their money mismanagement is simply going to drop them from contention.

As for the Mauer situation, it unquestionably represents Priority #1 in Minnesota, but as Buster Olney points out, the Mauer negotiations (handled by Mauer’s agent Ron Shapiro, who represented Cal Ripken, Jr. and Kirby Puckett, two of the last superstar players in MLB who remained with one team throughout their career…who also happens to be Mark Shapiro’s dad) could be the litmus test for baseball and the growing disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots”.

On that very topic and into the Windy City, there was an interesting quote from White Sox GM Kenny Williams concerning what he sees as “tiers of teams” and how each “tier” is able to approach the Free Agent market:
"There are actually three or four different free-agent markets. There’s the Yankees, Red Sox, both LA teams, the cubs. Then there’s probably that secondary market where we probably fall in. Then there’s a tier below us - smaller markets, competitive teams that want to go for it in this particular year. Then you have some of the poor-market teams where they’re trying to piece things together.
Some teams can’t walk in the door and say, OK, we’re going to compete with the White Sox. If we want that player, you’re not getting him. And then...last year, I told (Cashman), 'I like Sabathia.' He said, 'You’re not getting him. I’m getting him.'"

That’s all well and good, but if I’m not mistaken, Williams traded for Jake Peavy and claimed Alex Rios on a waiver claim in the second half of last year. In consummating those deals, Williams added the following numbers to his payroll:
2010 – $19.7M ($10M for Peavy, $9.7M for Rios)
2011 – $28M ($16M for Peavy, $12M for Rios)
2012 – $29M ($17M for Peavy, $12M for Rios)
2013 – $16.5M or $34.5M ($22M option for Peavy or a $4M buyout; $12.5M for Rios)
2014 – $12.5M (Rios only)
2015 - $1M or $13.5M (Rios option buy-out amount and cost of picking it up)

Williams correctly asserts that the White Sox are likely on that “2nd tier” of teams, but it is interesting how Williams’ apparent strategy for getting around this inability to compete with the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox on the open market is to be an inordinately aggressive risk-taker on the trade market and on players like Rios, in the hopes that he can build his team with talent (and I use that term loosely with Rios) that may be high-priced, but is talent already under contract when acquired.

As for the Royals, after the Mark Teahen to the White Sox deal, GM Dayton Moore said, “Our motivation behind this deal — and any deal that we make this winter, is to acquire as many zero-to-three service-time players as we can. That was certainly what we did here.” It’s actually not a bad strategy if you are where the Royals are as an organization (and not all that different from what the Indians did the last two summers), but they have to hope that the zero-to-three service time players they acquire in this new grouping of youngsters does better than those that have played a role in the past five to ten years.

It sounds almost absurd to say, but the clock is already ticking on the Royals to contend with Zach Grienke still at the top of their rotation. He’s signed through the 2013 season and the Royals would have to hope to take advantage of having one of the best LHP in MLB at some point during his tenure there. If the players that they’ve drafted in the past few years or have recently acquired fall into the John Buck/Mark Teahen category of average MLB players, you have to start to wonder what direction they take with Grienke as he is undeniably their most valuable asset. If the Royals don’t improve appreciably in the next year or two, you would have to think that they would consider moving Grienke to net multiple young players. In one sense, it could probably even be argued that the time to entertain offers for Grienke may be coming faster than Kansas City wants to admit as the Royals are pretty far removed from contention (and I should point out here that they had an identical record to the Tribe last year) and the haul that Grienke would net them would certainly put their rebuild on the fast track…or at least faster.

Moving away from the Central and back to the North Coast, John Perotto of Baseball Prospectus puts The BLC on his 2009 MLB All-Star Team as the best RF in MLB this past year:
Right fielder: Shin-Soo Choo, Indians. His season was the classic case of a tree falling in a forest, as he finished with 5.8 WARP1, a .309 EqA, .300/.394/.489, 20 homers, and 21 steals. Yet it seems no one heard it amidst the Tribe's disastrous 98-loss campaign.

The “tree falling in a forest” line hurts…it’s appropriate, but it does hurt.
It doesn’t change the fact that SS Choo is seen as the BEST by ANY RF in MLB and that he’s under club control until the end of the 2013 season. Assuming his military obligation in South Korea REALLY isn’t an issue, there’s a tangible goal for this off-season – buying up Choo’s arbitration years and maybe even his 2014 FA year to keep The BLC in an Indians’ uniform.

As for the idea to put Hot Carl Pavano back into an Indians’ uniform, didn’t his 2009 performance price him out of the Indians’ plans (hopefully…fingers crossed) in that some team is going to give him a multi-year deal, even if “multi-year” means two, that he doesn’t justify?

Plus, take a closer look at the quote by Chris Antonetti from the piece that generated the “Pavano as an option for the rotation” talk without the noise from Pavano’s agent regarding the Indians’ “interest”:
“We appreciate the job Carl did for us. He continued to pitch well for the Twins. We’ll have to see what Carl’s expectations are.”

His “expectations” (or at least those of his agent) are that Pavano’s going to be looking for a multi-year deal because he just did his one-year/prove-himself deal and he’s ready to get back into the multi-year deal business. Knowing that the Twins have an interest (allegedly), isn’t the agent just trying to create that “second suitor” for Pavano (real or imagined) to get the best deal for his client?

That’s all well and good for Pavano in terms of him getting the deal he wants…as long as the announcement of that deal doesn’t take place at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. If Carl Pavano is the baseline from which the Indians should be looking to improve their rotation, bringing him (or anyone else like him) in on a deal, particularly a multi-year deal, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense if you’re talking about an innings-eater whose only going to be eating innings that could be going to some of the young arms. If a pitcher brought in, he should represent an appreciable upgrade from the arms already in-house and should be figured on being a contributor to the team past 2010 and into the next “window” of contention…that is “scheduled” for 2011 and beyond. Terry Pluto asserts that the team “will probably add a veteran starter/reclamation project in the Carl Pavano mode”, but let’s hope that the motivation for doing so is not based on the idea that they can potentially flip said “veteran starter/reclamation project” in July of 2010 after that player has taken 100 or so innings that could have gone to the likes of Dave Huff or Aaron Laffey, two players that still could figure into the post-2010 plans.

As for potential Free Agent adds (though that doesn’t seem too likely) on the North Coast that would represent an upgrade (assuming health), here’s a list of the “10 Riskiest Free Agents”, which include SP Rich Harden and SP/RP Justin Duchscherer…and even those guys are likely to find deals more attractive than what the Indians are likely to be offering.

Things remain quiet on The Reservation these days and are likely to stay that way, outside of the random coaching hire announcements and the 40-man/Rule 5 talk (which Tony Lastoria has been and will be all over) that should fill out November. With that in mind, it’s time to head off to the park on a gorgeous Fall day in Cleveland to see if a nearly-3-year-old can throw a cut fastball.

Projection Screen

2009-11-10T16:29:00.003-05:00

In the midst of looking at all of the “who, what, where” of next year, I thought it might be interesting to pass along the first 2010 projections that have emerged for Indians’ players. The projections, which will be the first of many from various sources, are compiled each year by Bill James (who I’m assuming you know by now even if it’s just because he works for the Red Sox, but you can watch this “60 Minutes” piece as a nice intro) among others, for The Bill James Handbook 2010, which is now available from ACTA Sports…no relation to the Tribe skipper, I think.

Regardless, the wonderful folks over at FanGraphs take a number of the player projections that come out prior to each year to put on their marvelous site in an attempt to put all of the information in one place for your easy perusal. Being sick as I am (and not interested in reading about which members of the 2010 Free Agent Class will be donning the pinstripes soon…besides Lackey, of course) , I thought I would take it a step farther and consolidate it into an even easier format to see how the folks at The Bill James Handbook saw things shaking out in 2010 on the North Coast.

Please keep in mind that these are all projections, courtesy of The Bill James Handbook 2010 and Fangraphs, but here’s what one source sees happening for our beloved Erie Warriors in the coming season:
Catcher
Lou Marson
.280 BA / .372 OBP / .360 SLG / .732 OPS with 1 HR in 150 AB over 49 games
Kelly Shoppach
.249 BA / .333 OBP / .465 SLG / .798 OPS with 19 HR in 381 AB over 113 games
Carlos Santana
.270 BA / .356 OBP / .419 SLG / .775 OPS with 16 HR in 503 AB over 128 games
I'd like to see if I can find a way to let every other MLB team see this projection for Mr. Show Pack for informational purposes when discussing his imminent trade. Perhaps I could get one to Milwaukee (who could be looking to move Dave Bush as he attempts to get healthy) or to Philadelphia (where perhaps Kyle Kendrick, who seems to have fallen out of favor, might be pried away in a package) or to any other NL team for whom 19 HR from the catching position would start the sounds of trumpets blaring.

The big projection here (and maybe anywhere on the roster) though?
Carlos Santana, who the folks at Bill James see playing in 128 games (which actually sounds about right in that he’d be in Cleveland in mid-May or thereabouts, particularly when you see the 49 games for higher-projected-OBP-than-SLG Lou Marson) and doing more than holding his own, considering the average line for an AL catcher in 2009 was .253 BA / .315 OBP / .406 SLG / .721 OPS and the average line in the NL was even worse.
The Carlos Santana Era is close…get excited.

First Base
Matt LaPorta
.266 BA / .334 OBP / .468 SLG / .802 OPS with 20 HR in 451 AB over 121 games
While an .802 OPS would not exactly punch LaPorta’s ticket to the Midsummer Classic, it would represent the highest OPS for anyone on the 2009 Indians’ team with more than 400 AB not named SS Choo. Taking a look at this projection (20 HR particularly) and combining it with the projection for Santana, are you starting to see the future here a little bit?

No, neither is going to step in and immediately post an OPS over .900 or even anchor the 2010 lineup, but given their age and their potential, the hope is there for each to develop into mainstays of the lineup, with the foundation being poured in 2010.

Second Base
Luis Valbuena
.257 BA / .323 OBP / .399 SLG / .792 OPS with 9 HR in 366 AB over 103 games
While Jason Donald is not included in the projections, the fact that Valbuena’s projected number of games totals 103 would seem to indicate that the folks at The Bill James Handbook believe that Valbuena is going to see some time on the bench against LHP. Who his “platoon” partner would be (if it is, in fact, a straight platoon or just one that sees Valbuena get days off against tougher LHP) remains to be seen, but the projected line from Valbuena, who will just turn 24 at the end of this month, is fine by me.

Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera
.294 BA / .358 OBP / .421 SLG / .779 OPS with 9 HR in 582 AB over 157 games
The first disappointment among the projections comes for Asdrubal, who the folks at Bill James see as ripe for a slight regression, with lower numbers nearly across the board, even if they’re only slightly lower than his 2009 totals. The reason that this projection comes as a disappointment is that it presents the case that Cabrera is what he is as a hitter and that he’s not at the precipice of taking that next step into becoming an elite offensive threat at SS. Don’t get me wrong, the projections are far from abysmal, particularly for a SS (where the MLB average OPS in 2009 was .714), but for a player who turns 24 this week and has shown flashes that he can turn into a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter, these projections are a splash of cold water on expectations.

Third Base
Jhonny Peralta
.269 BA / .336 OBP / .424 SLG / .760 OPS with 16 HR in 531 AB over 146 games
Andy Marte
.258 BA / .320 OBP / .452 SLG / .772 OPB with 6 HR in 155 AB over 65 games
Again, these are just projections…but while the good people at Bill James see a slight uptick for Peralta from his 2009 season, they certainly don’t hold out much hope that he’s close to returning to his pre-2009 form and assert that better power numbers will be put up by Andy Marte, whose HR number projected out over the same amount of AB projected for Peralta comes to 20. It might be a good time to mention that the difference, in terms of salary, between these two players in 2010 figures to be about $4M.

Will Peralta improve with a full off-season of knowing he’s playing 3B under his belt and out from under the eye of The Atomic Wedgie and will Marte put up decent numbers, again out from under the eye of The Atomic Wedgie? Out of all of the players that figure to have a new lease on life on a team not managed by Eric Wedge, these two stand to benefit the most from a new voice in the dugout. Whether both remain to hear that new voice in the dugout…well, that’s a whole different story.

Outfield
Grady Sizemore
.272 BA / .369 OBP / .484 SLG / .853 OPS with 25 HR in 574 AB over 144 games
Shin-Soo Choo
.293 BA / .383 OBP / .467 SLG / .850 OPS with 19 HR in 583 AB over 156 games
Mike Brantley
.268 BA / .342 OBP / .335 SLG / .677 OPS with 4 HR in 526 AB over 130 games
Trevor Crowe
.260 BA / .335 OBP / .360 SLG / .695 OPS with 3 HR in 311 AB over 93 games
A couple of positive projections here, with the idea that Grady Sizemore will return to being Grady Sizemore in 2010, with numbers that resemble his 2007 season and with the assertion that The BLC is certainly the real McCoy. While Sizemore’s numbers tend to go along with the idea that a “next step” for him as a hitter may not ever be attained, a 25 HR-21 SB while playing stellar defense is a nice first step back from his lost 2009 season. As for Choo, the projections (29 players in the AL had an OPS of .850 or better last year, including Choo) are pretty much in line with what his 2009 looked like, if slightly lower, cementing his validity as a middle-of-the-order-presence.

Brantley’s numbers look like those of a young player still adjusting to a new league (and certainly not one who is ready to assume a lead-off spot), but not far off what he did in his stint with the parent club in 2009. The projection calls for Brantley to swipe 48 bases in those 130 games, walk more than he strikes, and to notch 21 doubles, so the “low-at-first-glance” number shouldn’t prevent excitement as Brantley won’t turn 23 until next May. Trevor Crowe on the other hand, with a similar projection, turns 26 next week and no longer elicits much more than cursory consideration as a 4th outfielder.

Designated Hitter
Travis Hafner
.275 BA / .385 OBP / .495 SLG / .880 OPS with 16 HR in 309 AB over 98 games
At what point does that projection stop looking good?
All of those numbers look great…until you see the AB and the games played. I’m not going to pretend to know how Bill James and his crew come up with these projections or what role injuries play in that equation, but this unfortunately may be what we’re looking at from Hafner for the next couple of years – solid production, provided on an inconsistent basis.
Maybe the great surprise comes in 2010 with Hafner, further removed from surgery and ready to play everyday; but I’ve been holding my breath for that day one for too long now already.

Starters
Justin Masterson
4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 151 K, 74 BB in 171 IP
Jeremy Sowers
4.44 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 81 K, 48 BB in 150 IP
Dave Huff
4.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 106 K, 45 BB in 143 IP
Fausto Carmona
4.56 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 96 K, 59 BB in 152 IP
Aaron Laffey
4.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 92 K, 60 BB in 157 IP
Carlos Carrasco
5.20 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 40 K, 19 BB in 45 IP
Since Jake Westbrook did not qualify for the projections in The Bill James Handbook, that’s what we’re looking at for the starting rotation, listed in descending order of projected ERA. The projections for Masterson, Sowers (surprise!), and even Huff are mildly encouraging, particularly when Masterson’s K numbers look so high and Huff’s WHIP and K/BB look so solid. Certainly I would think that most people would take three pitchers with ERA’s under 4.50 in next year’s rotation. Problem is, those may be the ERA’s at the top of the rotation and not from the middle to the back of the rotation.

Obviously, the projections are not sparkling for Carmona or Laffey, with both looking at K/BB rates that…well, frankly look like the worst-case scenario for each and Carlos Carrasco’s projection looking like he is not ready for MLB. Maybe Westbrook comes back and fronts the top of the rotation as a healthy and effective innings-eater, but that’s just another “maybe” in a rotation that looks to be full of them, based on these projections or otherwise.

Bullpen
Kerry Wood
3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 62 K, 24 BB in 56 IP
Chris Perez
3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 76 K, 37 BB in 63 IP
Tony Sipp
3.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 44 K, 17 BB in 35 IP
Joe Smith
3.94 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 28 K, 15 BB in 32 IP
Rafael Perez
3.72 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 51 K, 20 BB in 58 IP
Jensen Lewis
3.89 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 75 K, 31 BB in 74 IP
Jesse Ray Todd
3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 38 K, 12 BB in 42 IP
Jose Veras
4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 44 K, 21 BB in 44 IP
I’m not going to say…no, don’t jinx it…I swear, I’m not going to be the one to say it.
OK, that bullpen looks pretty good for 2010 based on those projections. Cue the frogs, the name of Tommy John, the lice, pulley ligaments, the flies, shoulder issues, the livestock death, TINSTAPP, the boils, evoke the ghost of Brodzoski (The Close), the hail, the locusts and so on and so on. At some point, a bullpen that looks halfway decent entering a season has to actually perform to some semblance of that promise (and not just two to three guys pitching out of their minds, as was the case in 2007)…doesn’t it?

All told, what are we looking at from the projections in The Bill James Handbook 2010, courtesy of Fangraphs, for the Erie Warriors? About what we see with our eyes, in that the projections put forth the idea that the team will have a good and developing offense, shaky starting pitching, and a (knocking on anything that resembles wood) bullpen full of power arms.

How those factors figure to change before the start of Spring Training next year, in terms of trades, potential adds via the Rule 5 draft or perhaps even via Free Agency, may change; but if the Indians are essentially going with their current roster into 2010 (and most indications lean this way) the projections shown above ring true with about the team that most people see on paper today – a team with a burgeoning young offense that is likely to be held back by the limitations and questions in the starting rotation.

An Indian Summer Lazy Sunday

2009-11-08T09:00:00.003-05:00

As Indian Summer has descended on the North Coast and fresh off a clam-bake last night (that boasted lobsters and growlers of Christmas Ale) let’s get rolling right into a Lazy Sunday so raking duties can be completed quickly and enjoyment of a 70 degree day in November can be maximized. With that, and attempting to shake the Christmas Ale out of my system, we’re off:

With the Yankees winning their 27th World Series and with everyone having an opinion on what exactly the championship means in the context of Yankee lore, current Yankee players, and MLB in general, I’m reminded (not surprisingly) of a line from “Seinfeld”.
If you’ll remember the episode when a married couple (played by Debra Messing and Cary Elwes) approaches George, Jerry, and Elaine at the coffee shop, the conversation ends awkwardly after George tells than wife that she “coulda done a lot better than” her husband. It sets into motion a whole number of story lines, but the wonderful line as the stories played out that always stood out to me was when George visits the wife (now broken up with her husband), attempting to take his comment back with the woman telling him, “Sometimes you don't know how you're really feeling about something until a person like you comes along and articulates it so perfectly.”

Since we all have a pretty good idea of what this Yankees’ championship feels like and how frustrating and gut-wrenching it is, I thought I would pass along the piece that realizes the situation and “articulates it so perfectly”, almost to the point that it just can’t be improved upon. Not surprisingly, it’s from Joe Posnanski and I implore you to read it. Print out a copy and read it and share it with every baseball fan you know or forward the link to those same baseball fans. I would re-post the whole thing if I thought that was the best use of this space, but if you do nothing else today…read this article.

The piece is well-thought-out and cogent and gets to the crux of why baseball may be a beautiful game, but why the current state of MLB may make you want to throw up.
Again, read it because in the immortal words of James Carville, after staring open-mouthed at Frank the Tank, “…that was perfect”.

Moving onto The Reservation, the big news (and trust me, “big” is a relative term) of the week (other than the revelation that Kirk Gibson was among those interviewed for the managerial gig and that Raffy Betancourt may be one of those Type A Free Agents that nobody wants to forfeit two draft picks for) is that Tim Belcher was named the new pitching coach, with his previous duties within the organization stated thusly:
The 48-year-old Belcher spent the past eight seasons as a special assistant in Cleveland's baseball operations. He worked extensively with pitchers at each level of the Indians' Minor League system and worked closely with the Major League pitching coach during Spring Training. He also doubled on the scouting side by giving advance reports on Major League teams.

It does seem strange for a team that has had a difficulty seeing minor league pitching success translate to MLB pitching success to hire someone who “worked closely with the Major League pitching coach during Spring Training”, particularly given the slow starts of everyone not named CP Lee for the last two years. But maybe there’s something tangible that Belcher offered in an organizational interview in terms of how he would take each of these specific Indians’ pitchers that he’s familiar with and use a certain strategy to maximize talent. Belcher has been part of the inner circle of the Indians (an inner circle that once included Bud Black in a nearly identical role and John Farrell in a different role) for nearly 8 years now, so he’s not an unknown quantity at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario in terms of his opinions on players already in the organization or pitching philosophy.

Belcher likely had a hand in the decisions made over the summer, particularly in the additions that the Indians made to the pitching ranks via trade (and, outside of Ant Reyes, I can’t remember a time before this summer the Indians added arms via trade), considering that he was a forward scout for the club and his input was almost certainly considered in the additions of Masterson, Carrasco, and the like. As reader Richard Sheir pointed out, “Shapiro’s career is on the line now and you go with people you trust when the stakes are highest” and whether that’s a good thing or not remains to be seen, but the fact that he’s impressed both those that have known him (Shapiro, etc.) and those that just met him (Acta) mean that there’s something he brings to the table that impresses.

All of that being said, nobody really knows whether Belcher will succeed and it can be debated as to what he did in the organization and why Fausto hasn’t been fixed with him already in the organization or why certain players have not been able to make that leap to MLB success with him as an available sounding board, just as it can be wondered how much input he had in the day-to-day coaching of the pitching staff, or if these tasks even fell under the umbrella of his still unclear day-to-day duties. It quickly becomes a circular argument, but if I can make a suggestion to Belcher that would endear him very quickly to hearts across the North Coast, here it is – fix Fausto and get one or two of these young guys (perhaps this guy, who you probably were watching in Lehigh Valley in mid-July would be a nice start) to develop into more than back-end-of-the-rotation fodder in short order while cobbling together something that resembles a consistent bullpen.
There’s your task, Mr. Belcher…good luck.

The hire from the Indians Front Office to the dugout as a first-time MLB pitching coach had me searching out the coverage associated with the announcement three years ago in Boston when John Farrell was named the Sawx’ pitching coach. Most interesting is this quote from the man who is not the Indians’ new manager in terms of making the transition from a Front Office role (and realizing that Belcher’s role with the Indians was different than the one that Farrell held) to the dugout:
“The newness to the position will be the in-game information and information given to Tito,” Farrell said. “In terms of evaluation and giving recommendations to individual pitchers, in this [former] role, that has been done on a daily basis. Whether it's with a young guy in the system or a guy making the transition to the Major Leagues, those relationships and that communication has been ongoing for the last five years.”
--snip--
“The way to communicate that is through a detailed or consistent framework that gives each pitcher a consistent starting point that's very routine-oriented and team-based so that their consistency and day-to-day approach will play out on the field,” Farrell said.

Sounds great…just like everything that was said on Friday, right?
Putting it into practice is what Farrell has been able to do in Boston (the talent at his disposal hasn’t hurt either) and whether Belcher is able to do the same (without the luxury of an in-house Beckett and Lester, among others) is something that will play out over the next couple of years…yep, years.

And therein lies the rub with these coaching hires that are unquestionably important to maximize the talent on hand – that there’s really no way for one to quantifiably assert that Belcher will be a good pitching coach or that he won’t. That uncertainty can be applied to any of the coaching hires that are yet to come as the as-yet-unnamed coaches are sure to be disparaged for a lack of acumen because of a lack of perceived progress by some player in the future, as that’s just the nature of the beast. Just ask oft-maligned former hitting coach Derek Shelton (who was a favorite whipping boy, particularly at the beginning of the 2008 season), who took all of 16 days to find another MLB hitting coach gig for a team that figures to be better than the Indians for the foreseeable future.

Staying on the topic of the coaching staff, seeing as how it was reported on Tuesday that “Indians manager Manny Acta would like to name a pitching coach and infield coach first” and with Tim Belcher now in the fold, isn’t it pretty obvious that those were two of the positions that were going to be filled internally? Let me know when it’s time to say, “Torey Lovullo…come on down” to manage the infielders and take on some role as a base coach, then turn our attention to other names that we know little about and whose resumes are sure to be pored over unnecessarily to fill the positions of bench coach, hitting coach, outfield coach, bullpen coach, and catchers’ coach.

Regarding those last two roles, there was a little blurb reporting that the Indians have an interest Sandy Alomar, Jr., possibly for one of those aforementioned positions. Of course, there is the whole matter of Alomar being a member of the Mets’ coaching staff perhaps standing in the way:
Alomar has been added to the Mets' big-league staff after serving two years as their bullpen catcher and catching instructor, but his job hasn't been finalized because of other changes on the staff. One of those changes included the firing of Alomar's father, Sandy Sr.
--snip--
Going from one similar coaching job to another is seen as a lateral move, which may prompt the Mets to keep him.

Generally, coaches do not make lateral moves so it remains to be seen what comes of this, but let’s all remember that adding Sandy Alomar, Jr. to the coaching staff does not bring back the days of 1995’s “Wahoo, What a Finish” or of 1997’s “A Sock-Cess Story”. I can’t imagine that people would legitimately go to games or have different feelings about the 2010 Indians based on whether Alomar was the bullpen coach…but I’ve been wrong before.

In essence, adding a guy like Sandy (or seeing if Charles Nagy is interested in filling the Special Assistant to Baseball Operations post recently vacated by Belcher) is fine with me as long as the main reason that he’s getting the gig has nothing to do with the fact that he was the player for the team in the 1990s. If the wisdom that Alomar brings to the role sets him apart from the other available prospective coaches…terrific, bring him in. If the fact that he hit a HR in the 1997 All-Star Game plays a role in the decision, color me uninterested.

Changing gears, in case you were thinking that Jhonny Peralta could be trade bait for an arm this off-season, I direct you to the trade of JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez that was consummated this week. While I like the deal for the Twins in that it upgrades their offense significantly with a player under their control through the end of 2011, it sheds some light on what the market for Peralta might look like…and it’s not too pretty.

Take a quick look at how Evan Bruell summed up the trade for The Hardball Times:
At first, I was incredulous over this deal, believing Hardy should have been shopped for a pitcher. While I still feel the Twins come ahead in the deal, I've come to realize that shipping Hardy out for a bat is actually rather logical. It's far easier to get a position player in a deal than a pitcher, especially ones of like talent. Even if Gomez is the equivalent of a 5.00 ERA pitcher, the latter comes with a higher price tag.

Admittedly, the sentence of interest was bolded by me, but is anyone else interested in using this logic to justify NOT getting an arm in a deal that would involve Peralta, particularly considering their current needs?

That of course, is pitching…the key to 2010 and beyond. While the man in charge of making sure that the pitching on hand (and perhaps to come) has been identified, whether or not he succeeds in his task isn’t an answer that’s going to crystallize quickly, or even be agreed upon.

So, while Tim Belcher pores over tape to rectify Fausto’s mechanics, I’m going to enjoy a beautiful NFL-free day in the best location in the nation on a November day that just doesn’t happen in Cleveland.

Forward Thinking – Rounding out the Offense

2009-11-04T21:48:00.005-05:00

With the off-season about to officially start, let’s resume where we left off…oh, about three weeks ago and get back to looking at the Indians’ roster as it is currently constructed and what those pieces and parts might look like for 2010. After the initial trip around the infield as Part I of the look forward, let’s cast our gaze past the dirt of the infield to the green grass of the outfield and to the rest of the offense.

Whereas the infield alignment looks mildly settled and before getting into the muddy waters associated with the pitching staff, let’s take a look at what is inarguably the strongest portion of the team (the outfield) as well as taking on the ongoing mystery revolving around The Artist Formerly Known as Pronk.

Left Field
The revolving door that has been LF for the Indians (Cordova, Lawton, Crisp, Dellichaels, Francisco…and that’s avoiding the likes of Magruder, Wil Cordero, Broussard and your boy Garko, the erstwhile LF) since the “halcyon” days of Dave Justice and Richie Sexson has remained a now decade-long issue for the Indians with none of the parenthetical principals previously listed ever distinguishing himself long enough to be considered a long-term answer. Sure, Lawton was serviceable (if overpaid) and Coco had some good years in the mid-2000s, but Coco’s OPS since leaving Cleveland is .719 (85 OPS+), so even he can’t legitimately be considered a potential long-term answer for the riddle that has plagued LF at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario since the late 1990s.

Into that fray steps Mike Brantley, a 22-year-old whose OPS+ of 85 in his brief stint with the Tribe in 2009 matches the number put up by Crisp in the last four years. Sample size difference to be sure (Crisp – 1,667 plate appearance; Brantley – 121 plate appearances), but Brantley’s performance in Cleveland (which doesn’t look that much different than what his former fellow Brewers’ farmhand Alcides Escobar did as a 22-year-old in a comparable amount of AB this year) gives the first glimmer of hope in a long, long time that the quandary of LF may finally be solved.

Truthfully, as late as August in 2009, I was ready to let Brantley start the 2010 season in Columbus. While subscribing to the idea that Brantley didn’t look like he was ready for everyday MLB action (his OPS in Columbus was .711), I believed that the 2010 season could start with LaPorta in LF and Marte or Brown or a FA at 1B, with Brantley at the ready to come up to MLB at some point in 2010, a little more seasoned and a little more ready for MLB pitching.

But, not even getting into the fear that Matt LaBomba may not be able to start the season on the roster as he rehabs his injuries, if Brantley is going to be the LF of the Future, maybe it’s time to make the Future and the Present meet. That is, if Brantley’s going to be the LF on the team when it is supposed to hit this next window of opportunity and since no other more compelling options are available (put that hand down, Trevor), perhaps it’s time to do in LF what the Indians have been so reticent to do in recent years. This off-season might be the right time to tell Mike Brantley that he’s the starting LF for 2010 and give him every opportunity (along with a long leash) to prove himself, with the comfort and familiarity of knowing that he’s going to be in the lineup every single day.

But wait, isn’t this from the same guy that said that Carl Santana should start the 2010 season in AAA because the Indians aren’t really playing for anything in 2010 and managing the service clock of their top prospects should be considered?

Yeah, that was me…but the fundamental difference between Santana and Brantley is that Mike Brantley finished nearly a full season in AAA in 2009 after a full year in AA in 2008 and has the taste of from his late-season call-up to MLB to fall back on. Asking him to REMAIN in MLB after two full seasons in AAA and AA is a completely different animal than Santana making the jump from AA to MLB with no stops in between, particularly for a catcher. That’s not to dismiss Santana as a 2010 option, only to differentiate the circumstances surrounding the two of them when the team leaves Goodyear next April.

Whereas Santana’s promise is unquestioned, he still has yet to play at any level above AA and Brantley’s cup of coffee in MLB last year confirmed what had been said about him as a prospect. The on-base skills apparent in his MiLB numbers (career MiLB OBP of .387) were on display in his 121 plate appearances for the Indians in 2009, boasting a respectable .358 OBP while manning LF. The power certainly wasn’t there (.348 SLG) in Cleveland, though it never really has been (career .369 MiLB SLG) and for a player like Brantley, whose game is getting on base and utilizing his speed, the power is secondary, particularly when you consider his age and his bat-to-ball ability.

Besides the lack of power, one aspect of Brantley’s game that did create some concern and (unlike the lack of pop, which was known) flew in the face of what he had done in MiLB was the fact that Brantley posted 19 K to 8 BB in 121 plate appearances for the Tribe after actually walking more than he struck out in the Minors (190 MiLB K to 258 MiLB BB). Again a small sample size applies, but more importantly, this doesn’t look to be too much different than what Brantley has done throughout his Minor League career during his first exposure to a new level

Going right down his Minor League numbers, you can see that Brantley’s first month or two at a new level often resulted in more strikeouts than walks, but that the numbers went decidedly in the other direction as the season went on and as adjustments to a new level of pitching were likely made:
2009 – Columbus (AAA)
April – 14 K, 7 BB in 69 AB
May through August – 34 K, 52 BB in 388 AB

His entire 2008 season was spent in AA Huntsville (in the Brewers’ organization) where he notched 50 BB to his 27 K, but when Brantley was first promoted from Single-A to AA in June of 2007, the adjustment period of that first month or so is again apparent:
2007 – Huntsville (AA)
June – 10 K, 8 BB in 59 AB
July through September – 18 K, 27 BB in 156 AB

Even in 2006, when he had his first taste of Single-A ball, the trend can be seen again:
2006 – West Virginia (A)
April – 8 K, 5 BB in 56 AB
May through September – 43 K, 57 BB in 307 AB

While this doesn’t represent a major concern, it will be interesting to see how Brantley makes his adjustments to MLB, considering that the level of pitching is unmatched and is light years ahead of anything he’s previously seen. That adjustment period (which may or may not come) is another reason that Brantley should be considered the LF from Day 1 of 2010. He’s experienced MLB for the first time and should now be given every opportunity to adjust to it, in light of no other viable alternatives (Crowe…why is your hand still up) and to see if he can finally stop the revolving door that LF has been from spinning.

Center Field
In light of all of this overly exhaustive analysis, let me just sum up the outlook for 2010 at this position with three words – get healthy, Grady…please.
OK, maybe four words.

Seriously though, what can reasonably be expected of Sizemore?
According to Terry Pluto, he’s “nearly 100 percent recovered following elbow and hernia surgery”, putting to rest the notion that the Indians were doing long-term damage to their very own Vinnie Chase (who certainly doesn’t look like recovering from the injuries have caused him to have any less fun) as he played through pain down the stretch in 2009.

But even if his healthy social calendar remains filled and his arm and g-g-g-groin injury (sorry, I have to link that as often as possible) are now close to 100%, what can be expected of Grady?

Before getting into that, let’s not forget what Sizemore accomplished last year despite his injuries as he ended up ranked 5th in AL in OPS among CF (behind Torii Hunter, Marlon Byrd, Denard Span, and Adam Jones) with the injuries, this after finishing in the top 2 among all CF in ALL OF MLB in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Even in 2007 (his down year), he was 5th in MLB in OPS among CF, so 2009 certainly represented a disappointment.

Do those rankings in OPS represent an elite CF?
Absolutely, but what’s disappointing about Grady’s 2009 season is that it looked to be a potentially defining year of his career in terms of whether he stayed on the steady path he was on or whether he finally experienced the break-out season that many have predicted for him. Instead, it remained mired in mediocrity (because of the injuries) and broke up this little spell of consistent production that he’s compiled since becoming the everyday CF:
2005 – 123 OPS+
2006 – 132 OPS+
2007 – 122 OPS+
2008 – 128 OPS+

2009 was supposed to answer whether those numbers represented what Grady was and what he figures to be or whether he still was on that “Duke Snider/Barry Bonds path”, where a jump in production is seen as a player matures into his late 20’s. Certainly the disappointment of 2009 remains just that, but how he comes out in 2010 (his age-27 season) will start to answer some questions as to whether Grady belongs among the elite in all of MLB, regardless of position, or just among the elite CF in MLB. Being “just among the elite CF in MLB” is nothing to sneeze at, but the potential for Sizemore to become more than what we’ve seen has certainly always seemed to be there and 2010 should be his opportunity to attain that potential.

On a team in which he’s one of the veterans and one of the “known” quantities, the leadership reins that Grady seemed ready to take in the second half of 2008 needs to found once more.

Right Field
In 2008, SS Choo finished 5th in the AL in OPS (at .946) among players with 350 AB or more. This year, using the same criteria (350 AB or more) he finished 16th in the AL in OPS by finishing with an OPS of .883.
That’s 5th and 16th in the AL in consecutive years in OPS.

Want to know how many players ranked in the Top 20 for each of the last two years using that 350 AB mark as the minimum in the AL in terms of OPS?
Eight – Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, JD Drew, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Justin Morneau, and Big League Choo.

In a season of disappointment, The BLC proved that his 2008 season was no fluke and his consistency in 2009 all but guarantees that he’ll be patrolling RF for the Indians for 2010 and likely beyond as the likelihood of the Indians buying up some of his arbitration years (2011, 2012 and 2013) increased as the season wound down.

Designated Hitter
Rather than intoning some variation of “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner” and making jokes about albatrosses around necks, let’s focus instead on Travis Hafner and what he legitimately figures to bring to the batter’s box in 2010. Of course, the first question relevant to that topic is not what he figures to bring to the batter’s box, but instead how often he figures to be in the actual batter’s box in 2010.

After the cloak-and-dagger affair regarding Hafner’s injuries and what exactly the issue was/is (and if anyone can get a definitive answer on this, I’m all ears), the rhetoric from the offices at Carnegie and Ontario that Hafner is now a year-and-a-half removed from his surgery and that he is getting healthier sound eerily similar to what we’ve heard for about two years now. Pardon us if we’ve grown a little tired of waiting for Pronk to re-appear, but from the time that Hafner came back from a stint on the DL on June 5th of 2009, he posted a pedestrian line of .273 BA / .352 OBP / .455 SLG / .806 OPS…but that’s not the most disconcerting part about those 77 games that he played to finish the season. No, that would fall to the fact that he started in 6 consecutive games twice from the beginning of June on, once in mid-July and once in mid-August. Outside of those two 6-game stretches, Hafner did not appear in the lineup on an everyday basis, despite the fact that his physical exertion was confined to simply swinging.

How often will Hafner play this year…75% of the games, 80%?
Does anyone even want to venture a guess?

More importantly, in that percentage of games that Hafner doesn’t figure to play in because of rest needed or for whatever reason, who figures in for those at-bats at DH?

Would the Indians be content to simply let everyday players take days at DH, opening spots in the lineup for what would figure to be the bench (Crowe, Marte, Donald, Toregas, Gimenez, etc.) ostensibly taking those AB?

With the additional news that LaPorta will be out until 4 to 6 months (which means February at the earliest, April at the latest and Opening Day 2010 is April 5th…ahem), is it more feasible that the Indians go out and get that 1B/DH type to fill in at 1B and spell Hafner when he needs a break?

I suppose the Indians could find some AB for the guys like Marte or Jordan Brown, who figure in (somehow) as 1B/DH/etc. options, but would the Indians consider signing a veteran bat (preferably RH) to add to the mix?

The pickings are undeniably slim, and looking at this list, I can’t say that a name really jumps out as even a reclamation project who could sit on the bench and wait for random AB…Matt Stairs, anyone? Eric Hinske? Kevin Millar?

Seeing as how there’s no chance that signing one of those guys is the best use of available assets or playing time, we’re back to the idea that the Indians have to hope that Hafner stays relatively healthy and effective enough while healthy (he did have a .910 OPS when he went on the DL at the end of April this past year) that he doesn’t become a middle-of-the-order “presence” who weighs down the lineup instead of anchoring it. If Hafner still needs his rest, the AB probably go to Marte or Crowe or Jordan Brown (assuming any or all of them are on the 2010 roster), giving the starters a day to DH.

If Hafner is “healthy” and continues to post an OPS around .800?
Wake me up at the end of the 2012 season so I can contribute a portion of the $2.75M necessary to buy out his 2013 option.

Bench
From the likes of Wyatt Toregas (until Santana arrives), Jason Donald (assuming he’s not the starting 2B), Chris Gimenez (still having value…just not as anything close to an everyday player), Andy Marte (still RH and still cheap), Jordan Brown (although a LH bat on a team that is flush with them may preclude his presence on the roster) and Trevor Crowe (who needs to show that his speed and defense are for real as a 4th OF), the Indians have the makings of a potentially strong, if inexperienced bench that should fill out the roster for the league minimum. None of the players figure to legitimately force their way into plans (except Donald), but most of these players have played the part-time role in MLB already and the success of the 2010 season certainly doesn’t hinge on any of their performances.
__________

The uncertainty around DH and the “wet behind the ears” look of the bench shouldn’t diminish the fact that the Indians, led by their outfielders’ continued maturation, should be a good offensive club in 2010. It will not always be smooth sailing as young players adapt to MLB (like Brantley) or attempt to re-capture former success (like Sizemore and Hafner), but the combined efforts of the offensive pieces in place should put the Indians in position to win a number of games in 2010.

Whether the 2010 pitching can keep them in that position to win games is an entirely different story…

Timing Up a Lazy Sunday

2009-11-01T09:01:00.003-05:00

After hitting two kids’ Halloween parties in the afternoon, then traipsing around West Park last night with the only 2-year-old in a Santa costume (yes, the DiaperTribe was dead-set on that costume selection since Labor Day), followed by the lamentations associated with the fact that the aforementioned 2-year-old does not grasp the concept of the “extra hour of sleep” that everyone looks forward to when the clock “falls back”, let’s get loose on a Lazy Sunday before needing that “extra hour of sleep” catches up with a vengeance, probably around 1 PM or so today…nothing else going on then, right?

With nothing really happening on The Reservation (unless you count the not so surprising news that Torey Lovullo wants to be a MLB coach instead of going back to Columbus, that somebody named Tim Tolman, or maybe Red Forman, could be on the coaching staff, and some various roster housecleaning issues), let’s go back to the events of Wednesday night, when CP Lee basically acted like he was pitching against the Royals on a random weekday night in May (I mean, did you see this…he’s just toying with them) while all of the North Coast cried into their Dortmunders that were meant to dull the pain.

But the pain was there, assisted by the FOX graphic showing the 2009 post-season records for both Lee and Sabathia accompanied by pictures of each still donning Chief Wahoo, with the title “You Still Have LeBron” delivering the final knockout punch to an unwitting city that once again was forced to come to grips with their second-class status.

It seemed that everyone had an opinion on the match-up between CC and CP and most of them were painful to read and difficult to ignore, but the ones of note (not surprisingly) that took the “big-picture” view, instead of just taking potshots at Cleveland, came from some natives of the North Coast, well-versed in the pain of being a fan of Cleveland sports. To that end, and on that notion of “second-class status”, my fellow South Euclid native Joe Posnanski offers a tremendous piece on the Game 1 match-up of Lee and Sabathia from the perspective of the disparity in MLB:
This is the hard reality of the World Series. It is not a celebration for everyone. Year after year, it is also a time for fans of losing teams to see their old stars, and remember the promise, and think about what might have been, had ownership been a little wiser and had a little more money to work with.
--snip--
The Indians never really got to cash in on having developed two of the best left-handed starters in baseball. Baseball is funny that way: For teams without big payrolls the key is not just developing good players: The timing is also crucial. In the last eight years or so, the Indians have had young versions of Sabathia, Lee, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp, Fausto Carmona ... all of whom at one point or another looked like future stars.

Some became stars, some did not, but the Indians have an overall losing record over those eight seasons and on Wednesday night Indians fans are left with their noses pressed against the restaurant front window, left standing in the rain while their old heroes Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia try to set the tone for this World Series.

The bolded sentence was done by me and is perhaps the most troubling part of the whole issue at hand. But before getting to that, and allowing the “noses pressed against the restaurant front window” analogy presented by Posnanski to sink in, here’s another terrific piece by Jay Levin at Let’s Go Tribe (posting at Yahoo) analyzing the situation in great detail and with tremendous insight, casting an eye towards the situation in Cleveland, how it relates to MLB in general…and that issue of “timing”:
As a tandem, that's all Indians fans ever got out of Sabathia and Lee — one nice season in 2005, and 10 dazzling but poorly timed weeks in 2008. As individuals, each guy delivered a Cy Young season, plus a couple other really good seasons. Sabathia never delivered anything in the posteason, however, and Lee never even got there. Should we blame the pitchers for not being at their best when we needed them most? Should we blame the team for not better capitalizing on their stellar seasons when they happened?

While that “timing” thing is still a major factor (and it’s the one that I addressed to a lesser degree in the context of the 2008 season specifically), you can’t ignore the disparity between the “haves” and the “have-nots” in MLB, despite the fact that the GM of the Indians didn’t take the opportunity of the publicity created by the situation to point out that different teams in MLB are playing on different fields in a piece from Bill Madden of the Daily News:
“I just can’t dwell on what might have been,” Shapiro said by phone from Cleveland. “It is what it is. I’ve known one of those guys (Sabathia) since he was 18 years old, when we signed him, and the other one (Lee) since he was in Double-A ball, and I care deeply about both of them as people. That’s what this game is really all about. The people. I just know we weren’t going to be able to re-sign CC and I’m better off with LaPorta and Brantley than I would have been with just draft picks for him. It was the same with Cliff. Keeping those guys was never going to be an option and still be able to have a competitive club around them with our resources.”

Of course, Shapiro’s not going to say that the Indians developed a plan to build a team around their tremendous starting pitching (on display for other teams on Wednesday night) and that their efforts to attain a World Series championship within their “window” of 2005 to 2009 fell short due to a variety of factors, some self-inflicted, some injury-related, and some created by the economic climate of MLB…but maybe he should have.

Perhaps it would have come off as sour grapes or would have opened himself up for second-guessing his own decisions instead of focusing on the issue at hand. But as reader Aaron Newman astutely asked, “Why is the leader of an alleged small market team not taking the opportunity to directly point out the inequalities of the MLB salary structure on a national basis while he has a temporary national platform. Why aren’t Shapiro and Paul Dolan saying to the national media that it is wrong and unfair that the MLB economic structure forced the Indians to part with two Cy Young award winners?”

Regardless of whether we should have, the conjecture that Clifton Phifer Lee could become the 5th pitcher in MLB history to sign a deal worth more than $100M at the age of 31 (assuming the Phillies rip up his 2010 option and give him a new deal this off-season), not long after Carsten Charles signed the richest deal ever given to a pitcher, in terms of overall dollars as well as annual salary, is it any wonder why Indians’ fans are lamenting the current situation, wondering why nobody seems to be taking up the cause of the “little guy”?

Two pitchers that made their MLB debut for Cleveland are about to make up 1/3 of the pitchers in MLB history to have ever signed for $100M and Indians’ fans are left to look at the “layers” of arms now in place beneath the parent club and hope that some of those arms become effective before the impact hitters (which looks to be in place or at least close) creep closer and closer to not being Indians anymore.

And…coming full circle now…THERE’S the timing thing again, as the Indians cannot change the current economic structure or what’s been done to date at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario to put them in their current situation. Nor can they change too drastically the hand of cards they currently hold, so they need to somehow make sure that the window of opportunity that may be ahead of them doesn’t close prematurely as it did in July of 2008. Not unlike most of MLB, the Indians need to hope that the pitching in place arrives with the hitting or else the vicious cycle starts all over again, with the pain and the regrets washing over the North Coast.

After years of waiting for the arrival of a “homegrown” ace, the Indians have developed three (remember Colon?) whose time in Cleveland overlapped for the better part of a decade, only to see them leave Cleveland without bringing a World Series trophy to the North Coast during their stay. Now not unlike most MLB teams, the Indians find themselves hoping that from among a group of arms that look to be slated to fill out the 2010 rotation, many of whom look to be middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation arms (not that those aren’t needed as well), there is one or two of these young players that emerges to become the top-of-the-rotation starter that seems to be lacking.

Masterson, Rondon, Huff, Carrasco, Laffey, Hagadone…
Maybe (actually that’s a big MAYBE) one or two of them takes that step to the next level, but if they do…when?

When do any of those young arms legitimately project as front-of-the-rotation starters, after adjusting to MLB and developing the comfort level that it took Sabathia a solid six seasons to figure out to legitimately be called an “aCCe”? It took Cliff Lee five years and one demotion to the minors to hit this current stride, so how long can this team wait for its youngsters to do the same, in light of the current economic conditions and the fact that the clock is already ticking on players like Sizemore and Choo (who Rob Neyer asserts is not much less valuable than Ryan Howard), who are inching closer to Free Agency or the trades from Cleveland that precede it?

If we’re talking in terms of “hope” that some of these arms do pan out, it’s irresponsible not to couple that with the “fear” that they won’t and that the window that the Indians seem to be looking at, with solid offense and defense and (gulp) maybe even a bullpen with power arms, is going to be undermined by the growing pains of a young starting staff. Obviously, the Indians realize this fact as Shapiro states in the Daily News piece linked above that “for us next year, starting pitching will tell the tale.” And while you could probably replace “next year” with “the next few years”, the development of the internal arms and the reaction of the Front Office to that development is going to determine the immediate future of the Indians.

Don’t take this to mean that the Indians should go out and sign John Lackey or look for another Carl Pavano for next year to “take that shot” in 2010 as the maturation of these pitchers and answering questions about the in-house options is probably the most important aspect of 2010 in terms of a sustained run of contention past 2010. Allowing a new coaching staff and a couple “fresh sets of eyes” sufficient time to deal with the pieces already in place and make judgments and adjustments likely preclude anything major from being done immediately, but the understatement of the year that “starting pitching will tell the tale” gets to the reality of the situation the Indians face and will continue to face.

That situation is the current economic climate that the Indians (and most of MLB teams) need to attempt to formulate that “perfect storm” once again necessary for small market teams to contend. Their pitching needs to mature and excel as their position players are still mid-stride in their development to keep the principals (all while avoiding injuries) in place for a period of time where contention (not only in the Central, but all of MLB) allows them to make that run (or runs) until it all gets torn down again and the building blocks go in place again. If the maturation of the pitchers ends up on a different arrival time than the peak of the position players, it’s likely that we’ll be looking at the offensive players leaving as the pitchers finally are ready to compete in MLB, just like we just saw the pitchers leave as the position players are ready to emerge.

While we wait for answers as to whether the pitching in place can arrive and succeed while the Indians’ offensive talent remains in Cleveland won’t be known for a good amount of time. Until those answers arrive however, all Indians’ fans can do is watch their two former aces duel it under the bright lights of the World Series, complain about the variety of factors that led to that Fall Classic match-up and hope that brighter days are coming, while attempting to push the fear that brighter days aren’t coming out of their minds.

What Should Have Been

2009-10-27T22:15:00.004-04:00

The nightmare is upon us as CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees in Game 1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, boasting their own former Cy Young Award winner in Clifton Phifer Lee. The pain of seeing these two former teammates battle each other will come soon enough, but the fact that these two ex-Tribesman front rotations for participants in the World Series is enough to wonder what happened to the Indians’ team that still boasted both of them on their roster.

Two short years ago, the Indians were one game away from the World Series and while the turning point came in Game 5 of the ALCS, one can’t help but wonder today what might have been had the 2007 ALCS hadn’t ended differently. It’s not a question that is reserved for just Tribe fans this week as Sabathia admitted last week to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that “I still can’t believe what happened… I mean, we just have to win one more game. Just one game. And we would not have only gone to the World Series, but I'm sure we would have won it. I still think about that.”

“What happened” was what happened throughout the 2007 post-season as CC was not able to defeat the Red Sox that night as his 2007 post-season would finish on that October night with a 1-2 record brought about by a 8.80 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP in 3 starts.
But that (as well as mentioning that CP Lee’s 2007 post season record doesn’t exist as it’s neither here nor there) gets away from the crux of the issue at hand.

That issue is that it can be argued that the loss to the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS should not have represented the end of the line for the assembled talent as the pieces and parts that made the run down the stretch in 2007 and made the playoff push at the end of the season was nearly identical to the team that would break camp to start the 2008 season. The performance of that team in 2008 is perhaps what should be examined at length (instead of “just one game”, as important as that game was with everything out there for the Indians to go to the World Series) and it goes back to another CC quote in terms of the 2008 club as he told Nightengale in the aforementioned piece that “with the young guys we had, I was sure we’d be back. I really thought we’d be together for a long time. But once we got off to a slow start, things changed so quickly. Now, the only guy really left is (center fielder) Grady (Sizemore). It’s weird.”

“Weird” is not the word that most Indians’ fans would use to describe the sequence of events for the organization from Game 5 in the 2007 ALCS to where the Indians sit today, with a new manager and a nearly completely different set of players. There are other choice words that could probably better articulate how Tribe fans feel about the shocking slide into rebuilding, but when asked what he would tell fans in Cleveland about the Game 1 match-up, pitting Sabathia and Lee, CC just flashed that mega-watt smile that we all keep reading about and said…wait for it…”I don't know what to tell them. It's not our fault.”

While we can sit and debate whether the fall-off was tied directly to the disappointment of the starting pitching in Game 5 of the ALCS, it’s brings up the pertinent question as we sit and wait for the FOX coverage of Game 1 of this World Series to bring about ulcers and groans across the North Coast.
That question of course is - whose fault is it?

Whose fault is it that the promise the shone so brightly at the beginning of 2008 has been reduced to barely a flicker, where contention in 2010 seems unlikely and contention beyond that is dependent upon too many variables to count?

If you’ll remember, the 2008 season started with essentially the same team that finished the 2007 season in a flurry of success:
Lineup
Victor Martinez
Ryan Garko
Asdrubal Cabrera
Jhonny Peralta
Casey Blake
Franklin Gutierrez
Grady Sizemore
Jason Michaels
Travis Hafner

Starting Rotation
CC Sabathia
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Jake Westbrook
Paul Byrd

Back-End of Bullpen
Joe Borowski
Rafael Betancourt
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis

Joe Borowski…Jason Michaels…I know, blame it on those guys.
But with that assembled group of players, THAT team had a record of 37-51 on July 7th, a solid 14 games out of 1st place, a game and a half behind the Royals in the AL Central further than halfway into the season. Again, that would be the team WITH CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, two pitchers who would end the season among the top four starters in terms of ERA+, healthy and starting 40% of the games over an 88-game stretch.

You want a period of time that killed this organizational window of winning, there it is – an 88-game stretch with both Sabathia (fresh off a 2007 Cy Young season) and Lee (working on a 2008 Cy Young season) going two times every turn through the rotation. As easy as it would be to say that the one game in October of 2007 killed the Indians, as they were constructed, a more complete explanation comes over that set of games that comprised over a little over half of the next season.

CC says that the state the Indians find themselves in and the fact that the two starting pitchers for Game 1 of the 2009 World Series is not “their fault” and it’s hard to argue that when you look at the numbers of Sabathia and Lee when CC was traded to Milwaukee on July 7th of 2008:
CC Sabathia – 6-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts
Cliff Lee – 11-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 17 starts

The team was designed to be built on starting pitching and it was, if you remember the 44 1/3 scoreless inning streak by the strong rotation (which by that time included an effective Aaron Laffey), so what went so horribly and irreparably wrong in those 88 games that forced the Indians to make a decision on Sabathia, beginning the quick organizational descent?

Obviously, some injuries to the rotation played a role (with Carmona and Westbrook both ailing that year), but the 2008 Indians boasted two of the best pitchers in MLB in the first half and still could not climb out of the cellar in a very weak AL Central in 2008.
So really, what went wrong?

It was a topic that was delved into back after the CC trade in 2008 in the “Things Fall Apart” series with some blame being placed on the bullpen, and specifically the struggles of Betancourt, Perez, and Lewis – all thought to be legitimate options when (not if) Borowski ran out of gas. Additionally, some blame was placed on the offense’s inability to make up for the lost offensive output brought about by injuries to Victor and Hafner, most notably in terms of the regressions of Gutierrez, Cabrera, and Garko as they struggled to fill the offensive void. Finally, blame was placed on the Indians’ strategy to stand pat in the off-season leading up to the 2008 season, as the Front Office’s decision to remain content and to rest on the success of the 2007 season and assume that player development would progress without hiccups and the overall success of the team would continue.

Wherever the final blame is placed (and it could certainly be spread around pretty evenly), the notion that the Indians could have made some changes to start the season – like waiting for the still-injured Choo to take over for Michaels (or Francisco), moving Grady to LF and Gutierrez to CF…or moving Blake to 1B, Peralta to 3B, Cabrera to SS, and finding a 2B, or even starting the season with Blake in LF, Marte at 3B and with the rest of the alignment in place – does not hide the fact that the past cannot be changed.

Perhaps some blame can be placed on the current structure in MLB that forces teams like the Indians to confront reality before they want to and make decisions based on their future, sometimes at the expense of the present. As Casey Blake stated in the Nightengale piece, "they had to make a decision…either stick with this group or start over again. Just one game changed the direction of that organization.”

While his presumption that “one game changed the direction of that organization” may be little dramatic, there’s no question that the direction of the organization was permanently changed by the time that Blake was moved to the Dodgers. Between Game 5 of the ALCS in 2007 and Casey going to Hollywood, the Indians needed to face their reality in terms of their situation in – they knew CC was leaving at the end of the 2008 season for the most money and the Indians had to decide what to do with him in terms of the realistic expectations for their future.

Should the Indians have “stuck with that group”, despite the fact that the team was 14 games under .500 in the month of June, with the likelihood of making the playoffs being slim and none?

Regardless of that answer, all that’s left is the regret and bitterness towards that three-month stretch that slammed shut the Indians’ window of contention, as the 2009 team followed the path laid out by the first three months of the 2008 team and the franchise was irreparably changed. As the frustration of knowing that the players that made up that 2008 team were unquestionably talented, but simply did not win, descends like a gray cloud on Wednesday night when the first pitch is thrown, realize that the Indians’ fortunes did not change in Game 5 of the ALCS on that October night…but it was certainly the beginning of the end.

Time for Some Acta

2009-10-25T21:14:00.002-04:00

The managerial game of musical chairs found one man standing as Manny Acta, impressive in front of the cameras in Cleveland and lauded by baseball men for his knowledge and passion of the game despite his difficulties in the situation in Washington, has been named the Indians’ new skipper in a surprising turn of events (in terms of timeframe) that ended with Sunday’s announcement.

While the Indians may not have planned on naming Manny Acta as their new manager just yet, news that the Astros offered Acta a two-year deal with an option for a third year forced the Indians to spring into action to trump Houston’s offer to land Acta in Cleveland. His three-year deal with an option for a fourth with the Tribe put away any idea that Houston was his preferred landing spot (or “dream job”), regardless of ancillaries involved, because he had grown up in the Astros’ organization.

The timeframe seemingly forced upon the Indians essentially removed Don Mattingly from consideration (if everything written about him in the past two weeks as the heir apparent in LA didn’t already) and one would have to think that Bobby Valentine either confessed a lack of interest, or such a lack of interest was picked up from his press conference, that his candidacy was no longer considered serious.

Acta brings an interesting resume to Cleveland with his strengths as a bilingual communicator known for developing young players being balanced against his unquestionably poor record in the nation’s capital (one that got worse in each of his 2 ½ seasons) and the fact that the Nationals improved after he was fired at the All-Star break of the 2009 season.

He brings a new energy to a team in need of it and, more importantly, a fresh perspective as he comes from outside the status quo of the Indians’ uniformly uniform organization. While he subscribes to some of the same basic philosophies as the Front Office, the application of those philosophies on the specific set of players he’s been hired to manage will ultimately determine if his record in Washington was an aberration or the start of a pattern.

Truthfully, like any coaching hire, nobody really knows what to expect as Acta was unquestionably in control of his press conference with the assembled media and said all of the right things about all of the right people at all of the right times. How he goes about achieving all of those things – like fixing Fausto and getting some consistency out of Peralta – is where his baseball acumen will have to show, and quickly.

Getting a read on him and making a snap judgment about whether he’s the right man for the job borders on folly, but some clues about him and his strategies should begin to emerge with the first order of business – naming a coaching staff. The construction of the staff (according to the Front Office when this process started) is up to the newly named manager, and Acta has made it clear that he would have no problem bringing along coaches that are familiar (and successful) with the current batch of Indians – a category that the AAA troika of Columbus manager Torey Lovullo, Columbus hitting coach Jon Nunnally, and Columbus pitching coach Scott Radinsky all fall under.

Whether any or all of them eventually comprise any part of his coaching staff remains to be seen as it’s a certainty that he’ll look to bring in coaches he’s familiar with and with whom he’s coached in the past. Just taking a look at the coaches that surrounded him in Washington brings forth names from his 2006 hiring like Rick Aponte, Pat Corrales (yes, Pat Corrales for those of you DYING for a former Tribe manager to be in the dugout), Jerry Morales, Mitchell Page, Tim Tolman, and Randy St. Claire. Some of those names are still gainfully employed in Washington, at least until a new manager is named, but it puts forth the idea that some of the coaching hires (as important as they are) may be names that are simply names to most Tribe fans. Regardless of this fact, the proper mix of coaches familiar with the youngsters on the Indians and those that Acta is comfortable with that can lend a new perspective on players, young and old, is what Acta needs to achieve.

How he attempts to put together a coaching staff as the first step to maximizing the young talent in place on the North Coast and to make contention in 2011 a reality is where Acta will be judged in the very near future as his impressive press conference and demeanor will earn him only so much goodwill in lieu of results.

The time for talk is over and the time for Acta has begun in Cleveland.

A Lazy Sunday with the Candidates

2009-10-25T09:07:00.004-04:00

Realizing that CC and Clifton Phifer are looking like they’re heading towards each other at ramming speed for the World Series and the articles have started on how painful that is for Indians’ fans; but seeing as how I prefer not feeling nauseous on Sunday mornings and promising that I’ll have some thoughts on that later in the week, let’s keep focused on what’s happening at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and worry about what could have been (or is it what should have been) for later in the week when we all have our heads in the garbage cans watching CC face CP Lee in the Fall Classic.

With that horrific scenario pushed back into the recesses (get back there!), let’s get loose on a Lazy One we return to the managerial candidate race in this election season (well, kind of) with Torey Lovullo sitting down in front of the assembled press corps on Friday.

In case you missed Lovullo in front of the cameras and microphones, the current Clippers’ manager wasted no time in attempting to put to rest the notion that he’s just an organizational soldier, waiting for his chance as another former Tribe AAA manager did in 2002.

To wit:
Some players sent down told Lovullo they had lost confidence after being yanked in and out of the lineup or moved from position to position.
“I like to get a lineup and try not to change it,” Lovullo said. “I'm big on team chemistry. I want players to know I have their back, that they can play relaxed and comfortable. ... But I expect an effort every day. This team can look different, act different and play different.”
--snip--
“The biggest challenge to an AL manager is knowing how to run a bullpen,” Lovullo said. “You try and put guys in a role in which they are comfortable.”
Lovullo thinks he can get the team to start better than the 11-21 record it had by mid-May.
“The last few days of spring training, you have to change the mindset and prepare as if it is already opening day,” Lovullo said. “I'd like to take the team on a three-day trip, like we were going on the road.”

Boy, other than REALLY trying to establish himself as a different person than Wedge (hey Eric, did you catch the license plate of that bus you just got thrown under with the “yanked in and out of the lineup or moved from position to position” line, among others), Lovullo certainly came in and hit all the high points:
Stability and development…check.
Improving the performance of the bullpen…check.
Better starts to the season…check.

Obviously, these are all just words and Lovullo attempting to say the right things, but it would certainly seem that Lovullo came into the situation with a pretty good handle on what the Indians were (and weren’t) looking for and was attempting to distance himself (at least publicly) from Wedge. There had to be a part of Lovullo that knew that he was seen by some (perhaps even some whose last name is “Dolan”) as Wedge Part II or simply an internal option and that differentiating himself from the former manager was the astute way to play his situation, particularly in front of the cameras and the microphones.

Maybe everything rolls Lovullo’s way (in terms of Acta, Valentine, and Mattingly all opting to go elsewhere or stay put), but I still believe that Lovullo finds himself in the Indians’ dugout in 2010…just not as the manager.

Of course, outside of those four candidates there seems to be a new wrinkle with the inclusion of Ron Roenicke in the mix. However, anyone else catch this snippet from Paul Hoynes in an article covering Lovullo’s interview?
The interview process…started with at least 10 candidates – including Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke who didn’t make it past the first round – and is now down to the final four.

Admittedly, I emphasized the part in bold, but that was written AFTER the report in the LA Times was picked up by multiple media outlets and is even mentioned in the AP story on ESPN that, “Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly and Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke are expected to be brought in next week for interviews”. Despite that, Hoynes seems to assert that the finalists are still four and that Roenicke WAS a candidate who did not make the cut.
So…is he another finalist or isn’t he?

Regardless if he is or not, if you want a bit of background on Roenicke, he did a Q & A with Baseball Prospectus a while back and gets into what the duties of a bench coach actually entail (something that a lot of people probably don’t know for as much talk as there is to “just go get a bench coach of a successful team”) as well as articulating some of his baseball philosophies. He hits on his thoughts on aggressiveness on the basepaths (an Angels’ hallmark, which he thinks doesn’t fall into the category of “overaggressive”), his thoughts on platooning young players, and how his shortcomings as an MLB player have allowed him to have a greater appreciation of the “little things”.

Roenicke is an interesting option (again, if he is an option) as he would certainly represent an outside opinion and a different way of thinking than the one that the Indians have subscribed to under the Mark Shapiro-Eric Wedge regime. Roenicke could offer that breath of fresh air to implement strategies and assert ideas that may be foreign to the straight-line thinking currently in place to the benefit of the team.

Speaking of foreign, is anyone else still baffled by this Valentine press conference?
If you’ll remember, he said “I can tell you I don't know about the American League, I don't know about the (AL) Central, and I don't know about the Indians, but I sure as hell am willing to learn and spend about 28 hours a day, if necessary, to know everything I could possibly know.”

Isn’t this the same guy that is covering and analyzing the MLB playoffs for the Worldwide Leader and has been since the end of September?

Are you telling me that Valentine claimed to the Cleveland media that he knew nothing about the American League or that he had watched a generation of baseball players on TV…and ESPN simply handed him the analysts’ chair on their set, figuring he could put in some of his “28 hour days” to catch up two weeks earlier or that he would be able to just watch these games and impart his limitless baseball knowledge onto the baseball population despite not knowing about the American League?

Valentine sits in Bristol and talks about baseball with the likes of Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, and Buster Olney as a paying job and he took THAT angle when addressing the media, not even attempting to show that he’s done any research on the Indians to…you know…see if it might be a situation, player-wise, that he would want to walk into as a manager?

Maybe that’s it…that’s it not a situation he wants to walk into, but wants to get his name out there as a candidate for when the Mets or some other high-profile team needs a manager, so they know that Bobby V’s back on the menu. Maybe it’s an act, maybe he just doesn’t care, or maybe he doesn’t feel that he needs to justify his candidacy to a group of writers whose opinion he cares so little about that he couldn’t care less.

For all we know, he nailed the interview with the Indians’ brass and simply wasn’t in the mood to make himself look good in front of people who aren’t making the decision whether or not to hire him. Terry Pluto’s comment that Valentine “had a knack for remembering names and getting a sense of what the Indians are about, despite his public claims not to know much of the Tribe or the Central” would certainly support that idea.

What makes Bobby Valentine tick has remained an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded by mystery since his time in Texas and Cleveland may have just received their first taste as his true interest in the job remains up for debate, if only for the tangled web that he cast in his brief time on the North Coast.

In terms of true interest, the speculation is growing that Don Mattingly may be using the Indians’ interest to make sure that a power transfer in Los Angeles goes a little smoother than it did in New York, in terms of Torre handing him the reins:
The interest in Mattingly on the part of Washington as well as Cleveland might solidify Mattingly's status with the Dodgers. The current plan appears to be for him to take over for iconic manager Joe Torre after the 2010 season. It would seem to be a long shot to think he'd give up the Dodgers -- a storied franchise where his middle son is a minor league player -- to jump to a rebuilding situation in Cleveland or Washington.

This isn’t rocket science when you think about the fact that Mattingly was burned in NY, where he was assumed to be the heir apparent before Joe Girardi got the job and is simply leveraging his “interest” in the Cleveland and Washington job to show the Dodgers that he’ll leave unless he’s given a clearer picture (particularly clearer than the one that happened in NY) as to what happens when Torre retires.

As to the question of Mattingly’s readiness to be an MLB manager, Rob Neyer has some thoughts prompted by a piece from Matthew Pouliot (one that goes a little outside the lines in terms of evaluating Mattingly in the context of his family issues), with Neyer asserting that:
The more substantive point is that Mattingly has never managed a baseball team; the closest he's come is one season as Joe Torre's bench coach. The New York Yankees knew Mattingly better than anyone, and after his one season in that role, he was passed over in favor of Joe Girardi as Torre's replacement. Since then, he has served as Torre's (and the Dodgers') hitting coach.

Mattingly might be a great manager right now, if given the chance. But these stories -- big name with little or no managerial experience gets the big job -- rarely have happy endings, and often the sad ending comes quickly. If Mattingly really wants to manage, he should volunteer to return to the minor leagues and learn how to run a 25-man roster. But considering the pay cut he'd have to take, I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

Neyer’s second sentence (the one in bold) is the one that I can’t get past, in that the Yankees had EVERY good reason to give Mattingly the job (a Yankee legend on Torre’s staff as his bench coach who was universally well-respected) and didn’t. Obviously, the availability and track record of Joe Girardi in Florida played a role, but anointing the beloved Don Mattingly as the new manager of the Bronx Bombers seemed at once to be a foregone conclusion when Torre left. Seeing as how he was a finalist for the job, why is he not managing the Yankees today?
Is it really just the lack of managerial experience?

Back to that managerial experience idea, Manny Acta remains the one candidate who possesses some time as an MLB skipper (albeit inauspicious) and who came across as impressive to the media (not that they’re making the decision), something he likely did in front of the Indians’ brass as well. However, as always, there’s a “but”…as Acta (as expected) has officially been named one of the four finalists for the job in Houston – the job he referred to as his “dream job”.

If you’re looking for a leader in the clubhouse (at least to me), I’m thinking that Acta looks like the most logical fit. While a total outsider like Valentine makes sense on many levels, there remains the idea that Mark Shapiro has created this new “window of opportunity” with the trades of this summer and that the dismissal of Wedge put him in the crosshairs of being the next on the firing line if things continue to go awry. With that in mind, what would the introduction of a complete wild card like Valentine mean? Couldn’t it result in Shapiro and a guy like Valentine not meshing with the end game being Valentine’s dismissal and Shapiro’s claim that Valentine never fit in, without the Indians getting a proper read on where the shortcomings in the organization lie?

The simple fact is that this managerial selection will have as much bearing on the future of Mark Shapiro as GM of the Indians as it will the longevity of any of these candidates’ future with the Indians, so if Acta comes with the credentials, the image, and the backing of baseball people that assert that he was in an untenable situation in Washington – enough to satisfy Shapiro that he’s the pick to win in Cleveland (with Acta putting forth the idea that he would look at internal candidates like Lovullo, Columbus hitting coach Jon Nunnally, and Columbus pitching coach Scott Radinsky to build his coaching staff), then Acta should be the guy.

However, that selection should be made with the understanding that the Indians’ Front Office is hiring the guy that they feel fits in best with what they have in place and any continued failures by the product on the field will no longer be able to be chalked up to deficiencies in the dugout, but up to the offices at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as well.

As for the players that figure to be led by any of these guys, Adam Van Arsdale at LGT has a nice write-up on some of the young players that may play a role in the 2010 season, notably Mike Brantley and Carlos Santana, putting forth the idea that those two prospects are quite certainly the real deal.

On the topic of offensive upgrades emerging from within, the aforementioned Santana was also the topic of discussion recently at The Hardball Times, as was Matt LaPorta.
Carlos Santana
The 23-year old switch-hitter has emerged as an elite catching prospect with a major league ready bat. He spent the entire 2009 season with the Akron Aeros of the Eastern League (Double-A) putting together an an eye-popping line of .290/.413/.530. His plate discipline is also advanced beyond his age.
--snip--
Santana will likely hit for a solid average and decent power numbers, in the range of 20-25 home runs. His real value will be in his ability to draw walks and reach base. I think we can expect a batting line in the range of .280/.375/.450 in the future.

Matt LaPorta
Matt LaPorta is one of the game's top power-hitting prospects, despite his somewhat disappointing 2009. LaPorta's prime is coming on fast, and his strong plate coverage and natural home run swing are too much to ignore. He still has the ability to turn into a superior middle-of-the-order hitter, and he is one of my very top fantasy breakout players for 2010.

Some answers should start to emerge this week as to who will be given the chance to develop these players pertaining to Acta in Houston, the actual level of interest for Valentine and Mattingly, and whether other candidates (like Roenicke or even Clint Hurdle) have in fact entered the mix. For now, answers are scarce and opinions and questions remain prevalent as this four-ring circus of a managerial search rolls on.

Mailing in the Tomahawks

2009-10-22T22:16:00.004-04:00

With the second interview completed, with Bobby V…um, not exactly “nailing it” and the third interview (Lovullo) scheduled for Friday, let’s get into the latest and greatest (relatively speaking) on the Indians’ managerial search as we release some Tomahawks:
__________

With Bobby Valentine really mailing in the “meet-the-press-greet-the-press” portion of his interview, let’s take a look at some of the real beauties dropped on his “desire” to lead the Tribe:
"This is an opportunity to manage a major-league team with a group of major-league class people. I'd almost have to ask why wouldn't I want the opportunity? . . . It's one of the best ballparks in the world. They asked me at ESPN, "Why do you want to go there?"
"Why wouldn't I?"
--snip--
"I think I'm being asked to be part of a baseball culture, to be part of a process that might be lasting, might be special. I like special."

Hey Bobby, thanks for showing up with your charming generalities and non-descript stories told with a smile…I would maybe look at buying in Bristol.
__________

Comparing Valentine’s presser with that of Acta, is there much of a question which prospective manager came across as better prepared, more confidence-inspiring, and (frankly) more interested?

Regardless of that, as well as Manny Acta presented himself in his press conference, you can almost already hear the critics howling at Acta, if he were in fact named manager, as a losing organization picking a loser. Whether that’s valid or not, the Nationals’ record in 2009 was 26-61 (.298 winning percentage) under Acta and 33-42 (.440 winning percentage) after he left, which certainly causes some concern as to his ability to maximize talent.

However, while it’s easy to fall into the trap of looking at Acta in Washington (particularly his record) and simply dub him a “loser” without much hope that he could find much more success in Cleveland, I’ll direct you to a comment made by Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan in a recent online chat.

The Q & A looked like this:
buffum (Austin TX): Acta or Valentine?
Joe Sheehan: Acta. He's the next Terry Francona.

I’m not sure if the next Jon Lester or the next Kevin Youkilis can come along with this “next Terry Francona”, but it sounds like the beginning of a plan to me.

Also, if somebody could shed some light on who this astute question came from, it would be much obliged.
__________

Of course, the corollary to Acta’s situation is that he’s also a candidate in Houston and Ken Rosenthal thinks that Astros’ owner Drayton McClane may attempt to make this interesting if he senses a competition with the Indians for the services of Acta:
Acta not only is a finalist for the Indians, but also a leading candidate for the Astros. The Indians are not likely to alter their process because of the Astros' interest. But Astros owner Drayton McLane might react to the Indians' pursuit.
The competition for Acta is reminiscent of the battle between the Rangers and Orioles for Phil Regan after the 1994 season. The Orioles' interest in Regan only intensified after club officials learned that Regan also was a target of the Rangers and their new general manager, former O's exec Doug Melvin.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos, fearing he might lose Regan, would not let him leave Baltimore without a contract. McLane is the same type of owner that Angelos was then — intrusive, competitive, prone to impulse.
--snip--
Acta, who began his career with the Astros and spent 16 years in the organization, told reporters that rejoining the team would be "too good to be true." The Indians, however, are a far more stable operation.

Now there’s speculation (admittedly wild speculation at that) that the Blue Jays may express an interest in Acta because of his connection with some of the principals in the new Toronto Front Office:
If Manny Acta doesn’t get the Cleveland Indians managing job, I wouldn’t be surprised if he figures in any reworking of the Toronto Blue Jays coaching staff. Never mind that new Jays assistant GM Dana Brown worked with Acta in Montreal and with the Washington Nationals; Acta is also known to Alex Anthopoulos and Tony LaCava.

Suddenly, somebody’s looking like the belle of the ball with a full dance card to boot…
__________

If Acta could have a destination other than Cleveland this off-season, it seems that Don Mattingly may be keeping his address as Jon Heyman asserts that there is an understanding in place to keep Mattingly in Chavez Ravine as the heir apparent to Joe Torre:
So while no one is saying it officially, the Dodgers are one team that truly has a manager in waiting. (According to Torre, the wait will be one more year, as he reiterated to SI.com that it's his intention to make 2010 his last year as Dodgers manager.)
--snip--
Mattingly said he believes Torre when he says he intends to make 2010 his last season managing the Dodgers. "He's not as leverage-the-media guy," Mattingly said. "But nobody knows the future."
Mattingly understands the future isn't guaranteed to anyone. But his looks pretty secure in Dodger blue.

Could we suddenly be looking at a “always the bridesmaid, never the bride” situation emerging here?

I suppose if anything can be taken from these possibilities, it’s the fact that at least we’re looking at guys other teams are interested in and are targeting managerial candidates that other teams feel just as strongly about. To that end (and to bring this around to a couple of names NOT on the “finalist” list), when was the last time you heard of an interview for Hargrove when a managerial position (or even a coaching position) arose in the past…how about Tony Pena?
__________

With Acta perhaps going to Houston and Mattingly perhaps staying put, is it any surprise that it looks like Clint Hurdle may now be entering the picture? Since I’m losing track, would Hurdle represent Plan D, or are we already on E?
Actually, I think it’s F…

Whatever letter we may find ourselves on, it would seem that Hurdle has entered the mix and perhaps for no other reason than to have an option in case everyone else bails out. How serious a candidate Hurdle should be considered remains to be seen; but if you don’t like the difference between the Nationals’ record with Acta and without Acta, you’re not going to like this:
Colorado Rockies - 2009
18-28 (.391 winning percentage) under Hurdle
74-42 (.638 winning percentage) after he was fired

If Hurdle gets into the finalist stage of the process (hopefully having more to say than that he has no idea who the starting third baseman might be), I’ll get into the ins and outs of Hurdle; but until then, we’ll just call him “Plan F”.
__________

Two managerial candidates have finished their interviews, with one coming across well-prepared and interested and the other coming across as “above” the process and assuming that he could sit before the microphones and charm his way into the job.

More are on the way, but whether some of the aforementioned candidates (of the ones on the plane from the NLCS) see the Indians as their first choice may dictate the Indians’ “selection” as much as anything.

Then There Were Four

2009-10-20T22:28:00.004-04:00

In light of the recent machinations having to do with the Indians’ managerial search, I’m going to put the “Forward Thinking” series on hold until this search for a skipper starts to wind down or until information slows down on it. Obviously, the most recent happenings at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario have to do with Manny Acta going in front of the assembled press as part of his candidacy as a “finalist” for the job.

How much can really be gleaned from Acta’s words remain to be seen (although it certainly sounds like he did his homework and talked in the “we” and “us” sense when discussing the team) , but it does appear as if there are four candidates that are finalists for the Indians’ managerial position – Acta, Bobby Valentine, Torey Lovullo, and Don Mattingly.

Since the topic of Manny Acta has already been touched upon a few times in this space (a smart baseball man in a bad situation in Washington who may be pining for the Houston job over the one in Cleveland) , let’s hit on the other names on the list that apparently fill out the Indians’ pickings for their new skipper.

The name on the list that has the most MLB experience as a manager (because Acta is second in that category with…gulp… 2 ½ seasons as a MLB manager among the four) is Bobby Valentine. The same Bobby V that comes through on your “Baseball Tonight” (and I say “your” because I stopped watching that show years ago) and the one who has often been portrayed as an egomaniac, an attention hog, and a lightning rod for criticism out in front of the cameras and microphones talking as much about himself as his team. We all remember when he came back to the dugout as the Mets’ manager in disguise and laugh about it, but the episode serves as a microcosm of what you get with Valentine – a manager driven to succeed (almost blinded by that drive) who is all too willing to allow himself to become the focus in lieu of all else.

Valentine is certainly the antithesis of what the Indians dugout has looked like as “even-keeled”, “vanilla” and “robotic” are never words that you’ll see associated with Bobby V (and could you imagine The Atomic Wedgie in this scenario), but lest we get lost in the winds associated with the hurricane that is Bobby Valentine, you have to get back to the actual task at hand and ask the pertinent question – can he win with the Indians?

Since it’s been more than a few years since Valentine has managed on American soil, it’s easy to forget that Bobby V. is not just a mustachioed cartoon character, at home smiling in front of the bright lights of the TV. No, prior to all of that, Valentine was a young manager in Texas who went 581-605 from 1985 to 1992, finishing with a winning record in 4 of the full 6 seasons he managed. While his teams in Arlington only finished better than 3rd in the AL West once and never won a pennant, they were constantly in contention – often up against the “Bash Brothers’ Era” in Oakland. Interestingly, Valentine was fired from a team that had a winning record (45-41) and contained the collected young offensive talent that would eventually mature (with some chemical help) into a juggernaut as his 1992 team boasted Pudge Rodriguez (20), Juan Gone (22), Dean Palmer (23), Ruben Sierra (26), and Rafael Palmiero (27).

After his dismissal from Texas and after spending some time in Japan, Valentine was hired in Queens in 1996 and compiled a 536-467 record over his tenure there, during which he compiled a winning record in all 5 full seasons he managed. While he never won the NL East there (Bobby Cox and the Braves had a monopoly on that), he did win the NL Pennant in 2000, only to lose in the Subway Series to the Yankees.

Interestingly, when asked by the NY Times a few years back about what went wrong with the Mets, Valentine offered this explanation:
I thought we went outside too much. The key word was building, and I think after we got to the World Series, then we just wanted to create. We just wanted to pluck it out of the sky and have it. I thought we lost our mode of what made us pretty good - that we were a good team, we were going to build our own players and add a few pieces.

Sound like a philosophy that falls in line (in theory) with that of a team you know…“build our own players and add a few pieces”?

Of course, after Valentine was dismissed by the Mets, he returned to Japan and now finds himself occupying an ESPN chair, trying to get back into the mix as a MLB manager. Does he see a job like Cleveland as a stepping stone to getting back into the spotlight or does he just want to get back into MLB? If it’s the latter, you would have to assume that Valentine will do what he has always done in the MLB – win consistently, his way.

The question with Valentine (other than the fact that he made $4M last year in Japan and may be looking for substantial compensation to return to managing) is whether the Indians want to put up with the histrionics associated with having Valentine calling the shots and taking the spotlight from the team. Or is that exactly what the Indians need – a manager to take the spotlight, to generate some flavor from the dugout, a little Bobby V?
Perhaps…but at what price, both monetarily and in terms of the spotlight?

Outside of Valentine, the most intriguing candidate is Don Mattingly, who comes with instant credibility from his playing days and, more recently, from his success as the hitting coach for the Dodgers as he has assisted in the development of the young offensive talent in Chavez Ravine. However, he has no managerial experience of any kind and as nice as some memories may be of Donny Baseball as a player, the Indians would be handing the reins to a team whose biggest issue is pitching to a hitting coach who has never handled a pitching staff at any level. Truthfully, the best argument that I can make on Mattingly’s ability to handle a pitching staff is that both he and Mike Scioscia were in the greatest Simpsons’ episode of all time – “Homer at the Bat”.

It’s true that Mattingly was supposed to be the heir apparent in NY and was Torre’s bench coach in 2007, but his resume looks to be missing some key ingredients that should be contained on a cover page. Of course, Mattingly could build a coaching staff around him to surround himself with more experience, but Mattingly’s situation in Los Angeles (with Torre) is more reminiscent to me of John Farrell’s in Boston. Mattingly has coached high-priced talent in high-exposure markets in the past and, while his stated intentions that he wants to be a manager could ring true, one has to wonder if the specific situation in Cleveland is the one that he wants to cut his managerial teeth on.

Perhaps he wants a challenge and wants to get out from the shadow of Torre, but his lack of experience and a realization that he may be sitting in the proverbial catbird’s seat in SoCal, waiting for Torre to hang it up, may prevent Mattingly from committing fully to coming after the Indians’ job too hard.

As for Torey Lovullo, as nice as an MLB managing prospect as he might be, he simply has too much of the stink of Eric Wedge Part II on him to legitimately be considered a candidate, particularly one that the Dolans have to sign off on.
Remember this from last week:
Aren't we really just waiting for the final 3 to be Lovullo (with the explanation that they wanted to hire from outside the organization, but that Lovullo's interview was SO impressive that he made the final list)…

Lovullo probably has a spot on the Indians’ 2010 coaching staff and the Indians are doing him a favor by introducing him as a final candidate to put him on the greater MLB radar; but if Lovullo’s the final selection, it likely means that the Indians have been turned down by the other three or any other names that might emerge.

If you’re looking at the known candidates as a whole, I’d say that Acta and Valentine would have to be considered the most compelling choices among the four, based on experience and bringing the total package to the table, though neither comes without worries (Acta in Washington) or warts (Bobby being…well, Bobby). Acta’s interest in the Houston job and the fact that Valentine can sit in Bristol if the financial package offered is not to his liking could put Mattingly on the map to take the job.

With the list of “finalists”, we’re getting closer…to what I’m still not quite sure.

A Managerial Lazy Sunday

2009-10-18T11:24:00.002-04:00

With so very little being known about the only real relevant topic this Sunday that wasn’t hit on earlier in the week – that is, the Indians’ managerial search – let’s take a quick look at what information IS actually being revealed as to which candidates the Indians are considering for their post of skipper. Sitting in my father-in-law’s office in Milwaukee, surrounded by Packer Green and Gold, it’s time to get loose on a Lazy Sunday:

Starting off with Terry Pluto, who seems to have the most inside knowledge of the names being bandied about by the organization, he reports that the candidates that he knows were part of the phone interview process were Manny Acta, Bobby Valentine, Travis Fryman, and Torey Lovullo. Since Pluto writes that “of the in-house candidates, Fryman has the best chance to make the final five”, it’s pretty safe to say that anyone that had fears that Torey Lovullo would be Wedge Part II can ease their troubled minds.

Who else is on that list that was involved with the phone interview process?
Those bench coaches that had been mentioned in the past (Roenicke, Wotus, etc.) don’t show up, but Pluto does put forth the notion that names that were NOT included on the list would be Mike Hargrove, Tony Pena, Buck Showalter, and Phil Garner, slipping in the strange addendum that “Hargrove could end up being a bench coach if the team hires a younger manager.”

Reading too far into this (obviously), anyone else find it interesting that the two names that Pluto mentions (one being a managerial candidate, one not being a managerial candidate) would actually set up a Fryman as Manager, Grover as Bench Coach dynamic in the Indians’ dugout?

Fryman as Manager, Grover as Bench Coach, eh?
Let me think about that one…and direct you to the interview that Fryman did with Baseball Prospectus last August where he talks about himself as a manager and specifically how he was trying to help Lonnie Chisenhall make the transition from SS to 3B, a move Fryman made for the Tigers as a young player.

Interesting in that piece is the discussion on Chris Chambliss, who Fryman valued as his manager as a young player in the Detroit farm system. Chambliss was obviously hitting coach for the Yankees’ teams of the late ‘90s and has held various hitting coaching positions since then (NYM, CIN). He is currently the manager of the AAA Charlotte Knights (White Sox affiliate), so if the concern is there that Fryman may be inexperienced for a big-league managerial job, maybe filling out the staff with veteran coaches like Chambliss and Hargrove (both former Tribe players) is how the coaching staff gets filled out to blend some veteran savvy with Fryman’s relative inexperience.

The one name that is unquestionably out there and seems to be getting a good deal of attention is Manny Acta, who may be looking at the Indians’ job as a fall-back to the job he’s interviewing for in Houston, who had this to say to the assembled Houston press corps about the prospect of managing the Astros:
"It would be too good to be true," Acta said. "It's amazing because as I mentioned I owe them everything, including my wife. I met her while playing in the Minor Leagues for them. That being said, I understand what the process is all about. They have to do what's best for the Astros, and I'm happy to be part of it."

Wouldn’t it be nice to hear a managerial candidate for the Tribe come out and say that?
Pipe down there, Grover…

Seriously though, Acta responded to the criticism that he was unqualified to manage again based on the struggles of his team in Washington thusly:
"I learned that rebuilding is tough, rebuilding is cruel and can be grueling, but those are the types of jobs that go to people like me," Acta said. "Obviously, you're going to ask one of those big-time managers to do one of those jobs, but we have to get our foot in the door. We did it and it was a tremendous experience and we can use that going forward."
Sound about what you would imagine the Indians’ brass heard in Acta’s phone interview?

Back to square one then, it seems like the names that did get interviewed (or at least the ones we seem to know about) fall in line with what we’ve been hearing. While the list of candidates is supposed to be parsed down to five this week for the sit-down interviews, we’ll have to see if the veil of secrecy lifts at all from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Based on the tea leaves and on the coverage of various candidates, guys like Acta and Fryman are likely to make it through to the next round, with the probability of a couple of surprises (meriting a “who’s that guy” at first mention) could be included as the Indians try to find the right fit.

Maybe more will come out about the managerial search (and hopefully no more surprise surgeries are mentioned) in the next week, but until then we’ll all keep sitting, waiting, and wishing for happier days to arrive.

Tomahawks Coming from Gray Clouds

2009-10-15T12:46:00.004-04:00

Some kind of off-season so far, eh?

This week alone has seen John Farrell passing on being interviewed for the managerial job, adding Matt LaPorta to the list of those who have gone under the knife, and the feeling that a CC vs. CP Lee in Game 1 of the World Series coming closer to a reality. With those things in mind (and with snow in the forecast for Friday), let’s release just a few tomahawks to recap the events of the week:
__________

The big news of the week is John Farrell’s withdrawal from consideration for the post of Indians’ manager, which had been dissected and pored over probably more than it should have been (admittedly by me, among others) in the past few weeks, meaning that the assumed top candidate for the job of skipper is not a candidate at all. While it had been reported by various outlets, Farrell’s statement to the PD removes any thought that his previously-reported disinterest was a smoke-screen or a deflection of attention while the Red Sox were still in the playoffs.

For Farrell, it represents the third time that he has declined to be interviewed for open managerial positions (the Royals and Pirates were also declined in years past) and the reasons for Farrell to resist what would look to be a job promotion (pitching coach to manager) remain a mystery. As I wrote here last week, there could be any number of reasons for Farrell not to accept a chance to become an MLB manager for an organization that he’s intimately familiar with and (apparently) remains close to.

Whether he has been promised the managerial position in Boston, or isn’t interested in returning to Cleveland because of concerns about their current situation or Front Office, or that he’s seen how green the pastures are on a team with a seemingly unlimited payroll and talent already in-house and with more on the way and isn’t interested in scratching and clawing into contention every couple of years, the fact that stands alone, without mystery, is that he’s not going to be the next Indians’ skipper.

While his disinterest had been reported by various media outlets, his withdrawal is surprising because the “criteria” laid out by the Indians last week for a new manager seemed to list Farrell’s resume, with the idea that the Indians were describing Farrell because…he was who they wanted and could go down the list of “criteria” when he was named to hang the “Mission Accomplished” banner.

If you’ll remember what they’re looking for from the recap of the presser, once you got past the broad generalizations from what they were looking for (a “good communicator”…as if they would be looking for anything else), you saw that the specific attributes that were mentioned essentially described what Farrell would seemingly bring to the table.

To wit, from the press conference and how each relates to Farrell:
8. A big point is to "understand the uniqueness of our situation and how essential young players are to us." This means that the new manager must be strong in player development, especially helping move from the minors to the Majors as fast as possible -- and then helping the players deal with trials and challenges of staying and improving in the Majors.

Understanding the uniqueness of the Indians situation…like, say serving as team’s Director of Player Development from 2001 to 2006 so he’d be pretty aware of the “situation” and would have some experience in developing young players?
That type of “understanding” with a strength in player development?

9. Experience of being a big league manager is "helpful, but not a necessity."

MLB managing experience “helpful, but not a necessity” ruled out that candidate HAS to be a former manager, which Farrell is not.

10. The Indians will have "no pre-conceptions" when it comes to experience, but it will take "a special guy to be considered without Major League experience as a coach and/or manager."

Wouldn’t a “special guy” be someone who cut his teeth in the Indians’ organization, but may be lacking in coaching/managerial experience outside of being a pitching coach for three years in Boston.

11. The Indians also believe they will have the financial resources to hire the candidate of their choice. They say that money should not prevent them from finding the manager they want.

Financial resources available seemed to imply that compensation and a healthy paycheck were thought to be prerequisites to lure Farrell, but that the Indians would not allow money to be a factor in excluding a candidate.

15. A real emphasis will be place on handling and developing the bullpen. The Indians are open to new ways of doing it, given their struggles with the bullpen in 2006, 2008 and 2009.

Regardless of what this EXTREMEMLY specific attribute may say about the handling and development of a bullpen by the previous regime, Farrell presided over the bullpen with the 2nd lowest ERA in 2009, the 7th lowest ERA in 2008, the lowest ERA in 2007…so yeah, that fits.

While the “fit” seemed to be there in terms of their expectations and the assumed candidate, Farrell’s announcement removes any shadows of any doubts that he’s remotely interested and the Indians find themselves looking at a list of candidates for manager…a list that no longer contains John Farrell.
__________

As for the names that are on the list, the only name that has been confirmed in connection to actually interviewing for the job has been Manny Acta, who is also allegedly interviewing in Houston for the open Astros’ job.

At first glance, Acta makes little sense if you’re looking strictly at the performance of his teams (73-89 in 2007, 59-102 in 2008, 26-61 in 2009 when he was fired) in Washington, but let’s remember what a couple of notable MLB managers had on their resume from their first managerial stint before dismissing Acta as a non-factor:
Terry Francona in 4 years in Philadelphia (1997-2000): 285-363
Joe Torre in 5 years with the Mets (1977-1981): 286-420

Maybe that’s picking just a couple of instances of managers who took some time to find their footing (not to mention the right situation in terms of talent) and other managers find success at different times and with different organizations, but it speaks to the idea that past success (or failure) does not guarantee results of either kind in terms of managers.

That’s not to say that Acta simply needs to be put in a different situation to succeed, but this interview with him, completed after the surprisingly good 2007 season as Nationals’ manager, paints the picture of a dynamic young manager who would represent a change in attitude from the dugout from what has resided there since 2002.

In terms of how he fits the Tribe’s criteria (from above), he’s been exposed to managing young players in Washington, has managerial experience (also from the World Baseball Classic), and has experience in handling and developing a MLB bullpen as his 2007 bullpen in Washington actually posted the 4th lowest ERA in the NL with a group of players that very few outside of the Beltway have ever heard of. Granted, his 2008 bullpen was 14th in ERA in the NL, but it goes back to the question of what a truly great managerial candidate looks like.

Is Acta a compelling candidate?
I suppose at some level, but as nice as it would to find the next Mike Scioscia or Joe Girardi, the candidates named from here on out are likely to elicit the same type of response as the mention of Manny Acta.

Do the names of Bob Brenly (who may or may not be interested in leaving the Cubs’ broadcast booth and has said in the past that he probably wouldn’t take a job with a rebuilding team but that “things can change”) or Clint Hurdle or Bobby Valentine or Tony Pena REALLY get you that much more excited about the outlook for the 2010 season?

Maybe they do for you, but the “meh” factor is rising for me…
__________

Far from a “meh” reaction is my astonishment to the news that Matt LaPorta underwent surgery on his hip and (less importantly) his big toe, meaning that he’s likely to miss the start of Spring Training, with AC even putting the atrocious thought that “his situation might be comparable to that of Travis Hafner this year” to let the water out of my perpetually half-full glass.

The timeframe that’s being given for LaPorta’s return is 4 to 6 months, which would come somewhere between mid-February and mid-April and, considering that the first game is on April 5th, let’s all hope for the 4 month recovery time.

As a quick aside here, does anyone remember Wedge’s quote when the hip injury cropped up, as LaPorta was attempting to score from third against the Tigers?
“The pain is still in there,” Wedge said. “We think he just tweaked it when he turned for home there.
“I'll tell you what happened. I guarantee you it's from him moving from the outfield to the infield. It's happened before. You're using different muscles at first base. You're doing a lot more squatting, a lot more bending. I'm sure that had something to do with it.”

Seriously, that is how the injury was initially explained…putting the idea that “using different muscles at first base” left his hip to be more open to injury.
Or was more open to a “tweak”?

Certainly the surgery (on an injury that occurred in the September 22nd game in Detroit…after which LaPorta started 9 of the 12 remaining games on the schedule) would suggest more than the idea that he “just tweaked it when he turned for home there”. Is anyone else getting tired of these “surprises” in terms of surgeries or should we suspend any additional “squatting” and “bending” from players’ usual activities?

Why is it that the players that have now gone under the knife (with the exception of Sizemore) were actually the top performers in 2009, or at least projected some hope for 2010? Asdrubal, Chris Perez, and LaPorta actually looked to be strengths of the team in 2009, with very little concern that recovering from an injury (OK, we knew about Perez’s foot for a while) would affect their performance in 2010.

Where’s the news that Peralta was battling a hip injury all year or that Rafael Perez had issues with his left elbow or that Fausto had difficulty with a loose bone and a cyst on his foot?

Wouldn’t all of that make you feel better about the 2009 performances of those players, not the news that two of the best players on the team (Grady and Asdrubal), the best power hitting prospect on the team (LaPorta) and the possible closer-in-waiting (Chris Perez) will all be coming off of not just injuries, but injuries that required surgery, for the 2010 season?

Alas, the gray clouds that usually settle over the North Coast from November to March have arrived early and are hanging low over the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.

Forward Thinking – Around the Diamond

2009-10-13T22:03:00.004-04:00

As the managerial search continues, but with little actually being cleared up in terms of John Farrell’s interest or what other names are legitimately involved, let’s start to take a look towards what the Indians may be looking at in terms of the makeup of their 2010 roster and what questions face the club this off-season.

As usual, I’ll break this thing down a little bit, if only to get into it as deep as I want to and so I don’t unleash some 10,000 word monster in one fell swoop on your unsuspecting consciousness. Starting off with the infield (with the outfield/DH and pitching staff yet to come), with a look at how the Indians look today, in mid-October, in terms of how the club looks to shake out for next season.

Catcher
When addressing the issue of catcher, the Indians are looking at their first year without Victor Martinez as their Opening Day catcher since Vic began the 2004 season behind the dish. The one-time assumed heir apparent, Kelly Shoppach (particularly after his 2008 season), does not seem to be in line to ascend to the starting position. That is, he wasn’t used like a starting catcher in 2009, as ShopVac started 4 consecutive games only twice during the 2009 season (once from May 31st to June 3rd and once from August 19th to August 22nd), this a season after he posted a .272 BA / .364 OBP / .570 SLG / .934 OPS line after being installed as basically the everyday catcher on June 9th of 2008.

Whether the drop in Shoppach’s production was a by-product of the infrequency of his use or the rest of MLB adjusting to him may never be answered, but the mitigating factor in Shoppach’s unlikelihood to become the Indians’ 2010 everyday catcher is his contract status. Shoppach is entering his second year of arbitration, after being on the books for $1.95M last year, with the assumption that he will be due another pay raise, if only by the design of the salary arbitration process. For Shoppach, his usefulness drops proportionally to the raising of the number on his contract and if he’s due for another pay raise with the idea that less expensive options are available to keep the area behind home plate warm for Carlos Santana’s ascension, the writing certainly seems to be on the wall for Shoppach.

What would the Indians do with him?
It’s possible that they non-tender him, though I would imagine that the Indians could extract something of value for him, if only on the basis of his 2008 season. There should be no shortage of NL teams looking for some sort of upgrade at catcher (NYM, CIN, HOU, MIL, etc.) not to mention a certain team in New England whose veteran catcher’s usefulness has also declined proportionally to his increased paycheck. Perhaps the idea that Boston may be looking for a catcher to complement Victor could be balanced with the idea that they may be looking for compensation for hiring their current pitching coach. Regardless of where Shoppach ends up (or if the Indians can net anything for him), it does seem that his time with the Indians is coming to an end.

If we’re working off the assumption that Show Pack is not long for the Cleveland Indians, Blue Lou Marson looks to be the aforementioned adequate placeholder, as a high-OBP, low-SLG with some defensive skills, who can effectively hold down the fort behind the dish until Carlos Santana emerges from AAA. Marson’s 2009 season in Cleveland looked much like his MiLB career as (in an embarrassingly small sample size of 52 plate appearances) he posted a .346 OBP and a .386 SLG, which are not far off from his career MiLB totals of a .369 OBP and a .386 SLG. Perhaps Marson is a Jason Kendall-type catcher (and there are worse things to have than a Kendall-type catcher, particularly at a league minimum salary and under club control) or maybe he’s more. He certainly was more than a throw-in in the Lee deal and is likely to receive the bulk of the catching time in Cleveland until Santana is ready.

Some have compared Marson’s situation to that of Josh Bard, circa 2003, designed to play the role of place-holder until the talented youth (Santana for Marson, Victor for Bard) arrives, making him expendable for trade. In terms of backing up Marson to start the season, it’s likely that Wyatt Torregas fills that role, though he does not look to be a long-term viable back-up catcher by virtue of his offensive struggles as he has a career MiLB OPS of .739 and he’ll be 27 in December. That being said, he could easily play the 40-man roster game filling in where he would need to until his options run out.

The real player in the whole catcher story is obviously Carlos Santana, whose status as the Indians’ top prospect is unquestioned as he posted a .290 BA / .413 OBP / .530 SLG / .943 OPS in Akron after posting a cumulative .999 OPS in 2008. For the second straight he year he walked more than he struck out and figures to start the season in Columbus in 2010 with the idea that a call-up to Cleveland will not be far away.

Some have argued that Santana should start the 2010 season as the everyday catcher to quicken his adjustment to MLB and allowing him to be “finished off” against the best possible competition. However, if Santana is the catcher of the future, the Indians should manage his service time clock in a season that they aren’t likely to contend him, allowing him to start the season in AAA for a time to delay his Free Agency year by a full year by keeping him out of the Cleveland lineup until his Super-2 status is not in question.

Speaking of Santana (at least in a round-about way of getting back to him), reliable sources have refuted claims made by WEEI reporter Rob Bradford and furthered here on Sunday that the Red Sox offer of a “mega-trade” for both Lee and Martinez “eclipsed” those that were allegedly on the table particularly that a “mega-deal” between the two teams “would be a proposition that would start with Clay Buchholz and only get richer”.

According to a source connected to the team, talks between Cleveland and Boston did, in fact, bring the possibility of moving Lee to Boston with the Indians asking for Clay Buchholz in a one-for-one deal for Lee. The Red Sox passed on the offer, according to the source, of a straight-up Lee-for-Buchholz swap and Boston countered with a proposal that would have sent Clay Buchholz to the North Coast for Carlos Santana. The Indians declined the Red Sox offer that brought Santana into the mix (I told you I'd get to Santana) and the talks involving Buchholz between the two teams ground to a halt.

As the recounting with the new information on the trade process from the Indians’ side shows, Santana is a coveted commodity in MLB and Indians’ fans will find out why sometime in 2010.

First Base
As confusing as the catching situation is, with one player likely on his way out, one player likely to serve as a placeholder, and one player representing the future, the situation at 1B for 2010 looks to have finally moved past that point of endless transition. That is, the days of seeing Ben Broussard and Ryan Garko, with a sporadic appearance by an Eduardo Perez seem to be over as the notion that the 1B for the Indians will be just “good enough” has given way to the idea that the Indians finally have their 1B-of-the-future occupying the same locker as their 1B-of-the-present in Matt LaPorta.

That idea could be…wait for it…delayed if the Indians decide to start LaPorta in LF with Mike Brantley starting 2010 in Columbus, with some amalgamation of Andy Marte and Jordan Brown (assuming either is even still in the organization) playing 1B until Brantley returns from AAA to moves LaPorta back to 1B. If you’re asking me though, perhaps it’s time to put LaPorta at 1B full-time from Day 1 (while acknowledging that his usefulness as a LF may be more attractive) and allow him to play every day at 1B.

The reason would be consistency, as we all know how LaPorta was mishandled during his first stint with the Indians, then thrived at the plate after being given consistent AB in his second trip to Cleveland. From the time he arrived for his second go-around, LaPorta posted a line of .273 BA / .315 OBP / .489 SLG / .805 OPS with 12 Doubles and 6 HR in 39 games (which breaks down to a 50 Double / 25 HR season over a whole season), while flipping between LF and 1B for the parent club.

Unfortunately, LaPorta logged only 181 AB in a season that was lost by mid-June as the Indians’ top prospect that played the same position as a 1B and a LF that would be traded as spare parts in July. Why he wasn’t up in MLB to play everyday in May could eventually be seen as a bullet point on the list of failures of Eric Wedge as the Indians’ manager (hell, it was seen as a mistake back in May), but nevertheless his future with the team remains bright if his immediate position remains (somewhat) in question, while his long-term position of 1B seems rather clear. How quickly he assumes his spot at 1B figures to be answered by factors unrelated to him.

Another reason for LaPorta to play 1B from Day 1 in 2010 would be the reality that the alternatives past him are essentially Andy Marte, a 3B, and Jordan Brown, who may be moved to LF...and that assumes that both players (who both turn 26 this off-season) stay in the organization through the off-season as both could fill the bill of “depth” but perhaps not much else.

Second Base
Heading into 2010, Luis Valbuena looks to be the 6th Opening Day 2B for the Indians since the departure of Robbie Alomar after the 2001 season and his arrival to Cleveland portends that he may finally represent the end of a long search for a viable 2B for the organization. As a 23-year-old getting his first extended look at MLB, Valbuena posted a respectable line of .250 BA / .298 OBP / .416 SLG / .714 OPS with 25 doubles in 398 plate appearances while never looking overwhelmed at the plate and supplying steady defense from the 2B position.

His age (he’ll turn 24 in November) and his consistency at the plate are the cause of some optimism for Valbuena and his long-term prospects as a 2B, but his 2009 usage and performance do not come without concerns. Of Valbuena’s 398 plate appearances, only 40 came against LHP (he posted a .661 OPS against LHP in that small sample), an obvious reaction to his career MiLB splits:
Valbuena MiLB vs. LHP – .241 BA / .319 OBP / .311 SLG / .630 OPS
Valbuena MiLB vs. RHP – .282 BA / .361 OBP / .447 SLG / .808 OPS

Knowing that then, how long of a leash should Valbuena have against LHP in an attempt to adjust to facing them and (hopefully) improving against them so he becomes less of a liability against LHP? His long-term viability as an everyday player seems to be tied into his ability to hit LHP (allowing him to play without concern for the handedness of the opposing pitcher) and how much latitude the Indians allow him in 2010 to make those adjustments certainly will be interesting to watch.

It will be interesting to watch because it would seem that the Indians netted what looks to be the RH complement to (or perhaps even straight-up competition for) Valbuena in the Lee deal in their acquisition of Jason Donald. Lest anyone forget because of Donald’s injury that sidelined him after the trade, he is a now-25-year-old infielder (one year older than Valbuena) who was rated as the 69th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America and 48th best by Keith Law entering this season. While his injury unquestionably would preclude him from making those lists after this season, the talent does seem to be there with Donald. His health going forward may affect how quickly he factors into the parent club’s plans, but his career MiLB numbers would seem to present an obvious complement to what the Indians have in Louie the Fifth:
Donald MiLB vs. LHP – .284 BA / .394 OBP / .429 SLG / .823 OPS
Donald MiLB vs. RHP – .282 BA / .356 OBP / .434 SLG / .790 OPS

Interestingly, looking at Donald’s body of work, his consistency, and his right-handedness in a potentially LH-hitting heavy lineup, it’s not inconceivable to figure that the Indians could open up 2010 Spring Training with Valbuena and Donald fighting for the everyday 2B job with the “loser” essentially becoming Jamey Carroll’s replacement as a Utility IF as both Donald and Valbuena's ability to play 2B, SS, and 3B mirror Carroll's defensive repertoire, coming at a much lower price tag in 2010. The notion is out there that Carroll could be re-signed to fill the role that he did to such critical acclaim in 2009, but the inclusion of Jason Donald in the Lee deal and his ability to play all of the positions that Carroll did certainly suggests otherwise.

Shortstop
In a season of disappointments, one of the only shining lights that consistently burned brightly for the 2009 Tribe was that of their 2B…I mean SS, Asdrubal Cabrera. Still not 24 (OK, he will be 24 next month), Asdrubal finished the year with the 3rd highest OPS (.799) among AL Shortstops, behind only Jason Bartlett’s otherworldly .879 and Jeter’s .871. He tallied the most doubles (42) among all AL Shortstops at the plate and his glove (finally at his natural position) looked like everyone expected it to in the field after a brief sojourn at 2B.

With the adjustment period of 2008 behind him, Cabrera established himself as perhaps the best overall SS in the AL under the age of 35 and as a likely perennial All-Star from the middle of the diamond. His emergence as a hitter and a fielder should have a steadying influence on the team, whose strength up the middle (with Asdrubal and Grady and Santana eventually) could be the backbone that the organization finds themselves in need of.

There’s no question that there are many questions facing the Indians in 2010 – who will be playing SS everyday for them every day (finally) doesn’t figure to be one of them as the performance of and the potential around Asdrubal Cabrera remained a bright spot in an otherwise dark season.

Third Base
From an unquestioned bright spot of the season, let’s turn to one of the deep disappointments of the season as Jhonny Peralta regressed to the point that his long-term viability as a part of the Indians’ organization is far from assured. Now a 27-year-old full-time 3B, Peralta has now compiled a career OPS of .756 (OPS+ of 97) and the promise of his 2005 season is a distant memory. But what does all of that mean for Peralta going forward as he’s coming off of his worst season as a professional while playing a position that generally produces some power after posting a SLG of .375 in 2009?

Were his mid-season position change and his obviously strained relationship with lame-duck manager to blame for his regression?

Those are the questions that the Indians need to answer before making a decision on whether to go forward with Peralta as the 3B for 2010. They need to project what Peralta could do with a full off-season of preparing to play 3B and (hopefully) without a manager that calls him out for a perceived lack of effort. If they feel that he can improve (even marginally) for 2010, holding onto him this off-season makes sense if only because the obvious ready-to-step-in replacement simply doesn’t exist internally for the club.

As well as Andy Marte played in Columbus in 2009, he didn’t play one inning as a 3B for the parent club in 47 games – a pretty startling fact and a good indication that the team was attempting to get Peralta untracked at 3B as much as anything else related to Marte. Maybe Marte plays the role of the backup 3B and 1B while providing a RH bat off of the bench with the idea that he could step in if Peralta were to be moved at some point during the 2010 season, but Marte’s performance in MLB after being promoted did nothing to put forth the idea that Marte is a legitimate option for everyday use in 2010.

Of course, the other mitigating factor with 3B is the fact that Peralta’s owed $4.6M in 2010 and if the idea exists that Shoppach and Carroll are replaceable for cheaper alternatives who may come close to their level of production, why shouldn’t that axiom apply to Jhonny?

Could the Indians get by with the “production” from Marte in Peralta’s absence until the 3B-in-waiting is ready for MLB? That 3B-in-waiting would be Lonnie Chisenhall, but the 20-year-old Chiz just spent all of 24 games in AA this year, meaning that the optimistic “Carlos Santana-esque” path to the big leagues would put his ETA closer to 2011…and that’s assuming that everything continues to break his way.

All told, it’s likely that the Indians hold on to Peralta through the off-season, keeping Marte around as his back-up with the idea that Peralta could always be moved at the Trading Deadline (assuming he boosts his trade value in the first half of 2010), because moving him now would be selling low on a player who may simply need a “Wedge-free” off-season to concentrate on 3B in the hopes that he can find the player he once looked to be.

If you can believe, the infield actually represents one of the more known areas of the team, with most of the assumed pieces already in place or not far off. That being said, much can change from the perceived make-up of the infield in mid-October to its actual alignment in April of 2010.

A Lazy Sunday Around the Horn

2009-10-11T09:13:00.003-04:00

As the off-season begins in earnest and with the only real “news” coming out of the corner of Carnegie and Ontario is that Asdrubal and Hurricane Perez had minor surgeries, let’s get off on a Lazy Sunday before a Fall trip to the pumpkin patch/apple orchard for some apple cider becomes necessary by halftime of a certain NFL game.

And with that, we’re off:
Starting at the top, Anthony Castrovince presents a nice look ahead, putting a nice little bow on what may be coming. The “look forward” portion is something that I’ll attempt to flesh out a little more in the coming weeks, but AC’s presentation is a good primer.

As for looking back, there is a piece that appeared earlier this week that recounts the story of how the Victor trade to Boston became a reality. It’s an utterly fascinating piece, offering a look inside the process, by WEEI’s Rob Bradford, spotted by hawk-eyed reader Al Ciammaichella:
The Red Sox and Indians started talking more, with the focus on a mega-trade that would send both Martinez and starter Cliff Lee to the Red Sox for a package of players, eclipsing what the Sox were offering for Toronto’s Roy Halladay, San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez or Seattle’s Felix Hernandez. It would be a proposition that would start with Clay Buchholz and only get richer.
But as the days got closer to the July 31 deadline, the Indians decided to split up the two players and trade them separately to maximize their prospect return. And when Lee was sent to Philadelphia with a week to go in July, the Sox were left to focus on Martinez.
--snip—
As much as the Red Sox wanted Martinez, they also realized that too much interest only was going to drive up the price, so they took a 24-hour-or-so break from calling the Indians. In the meantime, the Sox started heating up their pursuit of two players atop the wish list, Hernandez and Gonzalez. They both were long shots, but with a decent idea of what it would take to get Martinez, the Sox could take some shots elsewhere.
The Sox’ instincts and intel were correct — after seeing the shock-and-awe transactions fall through, it took a phone call lasting just a few minutes to consummate the deal for the team’s new catcher (and without Reddick). The cost to the Sox was steep, since Masterson was regarded by the organization as at worst a legitimate late-inning relief option, while Hagadone is considered to have legitimate closer's stuff, and Bryan Price, the third pitcher included in the deal, has a premium (albeit somewhat raw) arm.

The whole piece is worth your time as it certainly presents the Victor situation clearly, particularly when you remember the timeframe of that final week before the Trading Deadline, where signals from the Indians were mixed at best as to whether they were seriously considering moving Lee and Vic.

What part of that little synopsis of the trade jumps out at you though?
How about this:
The Red Sox and Indians started talking more, with the focus on a mega-trade that would send both Martinez and starter Cliff Lee to the Red Sox for a package of players, eclipsing what the Sox were offering for Toronto’s Roy Halladay, San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez or Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.
--snip—
The Indians decided to split up the two players and trade them separately to maximize their prospect return. And when Lee was sent to Philadelphia with a week to go in July, the Sox were left to focus on Martinez.”

I know that you read that once already, but parse through that for a second. The Red Sox were offering a package for both Lee and Martinez that “eclipsed” their offers for Halladay, Gonzalez, and Hernandez.
Remember what Boston was allegedly offering for King Felix?
The Seattle Times reports that, according to sources, the Red Sox offered a list of eight players, from which the Mariners could choose any five in exchange for Felix Hernandez. The list reportedly included:
Clay Buchholz
Daniel Bard
Michael Bowden
Justin Masterson
Nick Hagadone
Josh Reddick
Yamaico Navarro
Felix Doubront

Now, figure that Masterson and Hagadone came over in the Martinez deal (with Price)… and balance through the idea that the Red Sox offer for including Lee with Martinez ECLIPSED picking 5 of the names you see above.

So if Masterson and Hagadone are 2 of the 5, that would leave the Indians to pick 3 from among Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, Reddick, Navarro, and Doubrant at the very least, because the Red Sox offer for both Lee and Martinez was BETTER than the one listed above.

Maybe it didn’t shake out like that and maybe the names were not necessarily the same or the offer for Hernandez was overstated, but knowing what the Indians got from both the Phillies and the Red Sox for Lee and Martinez and knowing that this offer may have been, in fact, on the table (or even an offer that “eclipsed” this), the Indians better hope that Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp don’t fall by the wayside while the likes of Buchholz, Bard, and Bowden become principal members of the juggernaut that is the Red Sox going forward.

Mark Shapiro, if it wasn’t already obvious…you’re on notice.

This brings us to an absolutely phenomenal piece from LGT’s Jay Levin (which wraps up their “Fire Everyone” series) that puts the Tribe GM under the microscope. “Fire Shapiro” presents an interesting paradox as Jay points out that Shapiro is certainly not without his strengths, but finds himself in the position he does today because of an over-reliance on the processes in place and not enough of a dissenting voice to balance an overwhelming cohesion in the organization.
…the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.
--snip—
Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do.

Levin identifies some significant pieces of the Front Office that are no longer here (Jay mentions Farrell, Neal Huntington, and Tony LaCava…to which I would add Mike Hazen, the current Director of Player Development in Boston, a position that he has ascended to from 2006, when he admitted that he thought he would be a in Cleveland for a long time until the Red Sox came calling) and suggests that the Indians became weaker when each left, leaving the Indians to scramble to keep the pipeline full…and not just in terms of players.

Moving back into the nothingness of the managerial search, Jon Heyman offers much of the same that we’ve been hearing:
Bobby Valentine is the name most prominently mentioned as a candidate for the Indians job. But Indians people say they have a long list. Red Sox coach Brad Mills could be a candidate. Makes sense, his son, Beau Mills, was a high draft choice of theirs recently. Indians and Red Sox executives are close, and the Indians originally targeted Boston pitching coach John Farrell, who decided to remain in his current job.

Is anyone else confused by Brad Mills “making sense” as a candidate because the Indians drafted his son? Does that mean if the Indians drafted Ron Roenicke’s son recently that he would “make sense” as a candidate?
I’m fine with the argument that Mills is a respected bench coach for a successful team, but justifying his candidacy with the fact that his son is a former 1st Round Pick of the team and a current AA 1B doesn’t exactly make a compelling case.

Staying with the managerial circus (and refuting what Heyman writes), anyone else catch this little aside from Hoynes this week when listing managerial “candidates”, which looks a lot like the last time he listed “candidates”:
If Farrell, Boston's pitching coach, is still in the picture, he'll be a strong candidate. ESPN.com reported that he removed himself from consideration. If he did, it's news to the Indians.

That was admittedly bolded by me for emphasis, but is Hoynesie slipping in little clues that the Indians have not, in fact, been told by Farrell that he’s removed himself from consideration?

More importantly, is this what I’ve come to on an October morning…looking for hidden meanings in Paul Hoynes’ articles?

Moving on, if you’ve watched any of the MLB playoffs, you’re aware that (other than the umpires making quite a…ahem…name for themselves) it’s been more than a little painful to watch because of the ex-Indians (who, it should be noted DID NOT win when they were together as a team before the trades to start the 2008 season and, to a lesser degree, to start the 2009 season, making this idea that “breaking up the band” was a premature and short-sighted decision not forced by the performance of the players on the field) leading their new teams in the Divisional tilts. Regardless, my fellow TCF writer Steve Buffum lays out another reason it’s been just as difficult to watch the coverage of the playoffs…or at least difficult to listen to them with an imagined conversation that actually doesn’t stray too far from reality.

Finally, and apropos of absolutely nothing related to the Indians though it does keep us at “64 and Counting”, Vince Grzegorek recounts his experience at a try-out for “American Idol”, during which he “auditioned” by singing…wait for it…“Bernie, Bernie” in full Browns’ attire in the end zone of the Dawg Pound.

If nothing else, we’re a week closer to having a new manager for the Indians, which could be affected by the outcome of today’s Red Sox-Angels game…so I guess that’s something.

Managerial Merry-Go-Round

2009-10-07T14:11:00.004-04:00

Realizing that looking back at the steaming carcass of the 2009 season is just too sickening, let’s officially start this off-season by looking only toward the future. I suppose a “Season in Review” could be done, but I’m not sure that any new ground is going to be broken by reminiscing about the days that we’ve already pored over and that we’re all happy to move on from.

With that in mind, and with assurances that a full-blown look ahead is forthcoming, let’s tackle first things first and roll around with the latest on the assembled alleged possibilities for manager for 2010.

The obvious lead candidate, John Farrell, remains “uninterested” according to numerous sources, which continues to strike me as odd as the opportunity would seem to be right in Farrell’s wheelhouse. That is, the opportunity has arisen to become a manager in MLB, going back to an organization where he’s familiar with all of the principals (and certainly seems to be tight with everyone) and is familiar with many of the players from his days as Farm Director, in the city that his family lives in.
Again, I know that this is harping on old news, but doesn’t this just seem like too much of a perfect fit for Farrell to simply pass on with nothing more than a prepared statement?

Maybe he's that comfortable in Boston and knows how good he has it with a successful franchise with a bright future playing for a committed fan base, but from an outsider's perspective, you would think that a chance to manage in the town where you live (think Sweet Lou in Tampa) and where you get along with everyone would be the ideal opportunity to ascend to the manager’s chair, if that is his aspiration.

Of course, there’s the possibility that Boston has told him to stick around until Terry Francona decides that he’s going to head upstairs to draw a less stressful paycheck, with the idea that Farrell is the manager-in-waiting. Perhaps Farrell sees some dysfunction in the Indians' organization that he’s not interested in entering. It’s just as possible that he sees the payroll disparity in MLB and isn't interested in going back over to the “have-nots” side after tasting the goodness on the “haves” side of MLB...who knows?

All told though, there has to be a compelling reason for him NOT to go back to work with guys he respects and grew up with in an organization that is offering him a promotion from his current spot. Maybe it’s a combination of a lot of those possibilities listed above, or maybe it’s just a smoke screen to get attention away from himself while the Red Sox are in the playoffs with the idea that he’ll re-enter the fray after Boston’s 2009 season is over.

At this point, we just don’t know…and while Farrell’s interest remains shrouded in mystery (and even that bit of information on the timeline of naming somebody new can be taken a number of ways), one thing is for sure in the managerial search. That is that you can cross Fredi Gonzalez off your “list” (again, if you actually have a tangible “list” somewhere) as he’s sticking in Florida, which is really too bad from the perspective of an Indians’ fan.

If you remember (or even if you don’t), Gonzalez was one of the three finalists for the job that Wedge was awarded in 2002, along with Wedge (obviously) and Joel Skinner. At the time, Gonzalez was a manager in AAA and a former bench coach in Atlanta and has now gone on to prove that he is adept at developing young (or cheap, depending upon what you want to call it) in Florida, winning 87 games this year with a $36M payroll.

What is that we heard about the criteria for the new manager…an ability to develop young talent?

While Fredi certainly has proven that (and would have already been on the Tribe radar from the process in 2002) in Florida, his availability is no longer feasible and we’re back to square one if we’re crossing Farrell off the list as well.

The only other names mentioned in printed reports have been those of AAA manager Torey Lovullo and Bobby Valentine, who both seem to fall under the umbrellas that the Indians are NOT supposed to be interested in. That is, they’ve said they’re looking to hire outside of the organization (scratch Lovullo) and the intimation is that they’re not looking for a retread manager (scratch Valentine)…much less a “retread” manager like Valentine, who made $4M last year in Japan.

What other names are out there?
I’ve read cases for Tony Pena and Larry Bowa (among others) as managers that would instill a spark or some accountability to an organization that has been lacking it, as well as the idea that Manny Acta deserves another shot after being railroaded out of Washington for no other reason than that he had been dealt a bad batch of players. There’s merit to most of the arguments in favor of guys like that (although good luck to the Indians if Acta is the pick, selling the fan base on a manager with a career .385 winning percentage, as unfair as it is to judge him solely on that), but is anyone else coming up with that guy that elicits the “WOW” factor in this hire?

Aren’t we really just waiting for the final 3 to be Lovullo (with the explanation that they wanted to hire from outside the organization, but that Lovullo’s interview was SO impressive that he made the final list), some random MLB bench coach (take your pick, really), and a former manager like some of those names listed above – none of whose mention garners more than a shrug and an “I suppose I could get behind that hire”.

Isn’t that kind of where we’re at, just expecting the “yeah, that sounds about right” reaction to this hire with the idea that the new manager’s name isn’t Eric Wedge producing the most excitement?

The Wheel of Potential Managers seems to be spinning…where it lands seems to be anyone’s guess.

The Last Lazy Sunday With a Wedgie

2009-10-04T08:39:00.004-04:00

As the nightmarish 2009 season mercifully comes to an end today, and having written just about everything possible about what’s gone irreparably wrong, let’s cast our eyes forward (again) and take a look at the latest and greatest in the rumor mill regarding the managerial search for the Tribe.

It’s a bit of a wild ride…so buckle up:
The newest bit of information comes via ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, who reports that “John Farrell, the pitching coach for the Boston Red Sox, has removed himself from consideration for Cleveland's managerial opening, according to sources…Farrell has indicated to the Indians that he will not be a candidate. Farrell, 47, is nearing the end of what is his third season as Boston's pitching coach.”

Yep, that’s right…according to Olney, Farrell has “removed himself from consideration”, which comes only a day after SI.com’s Jon Heyman reported that Farrell was “such a strong candidate he may at the moment be the whole list” in the greater context of why Farrell perfectly fit the bill:
Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell is believed to be at the top of the Indians' wish list to replace Eric Wedge as manager. In fact, Farrell is seen as such a strong candidate he may at the moment be the whole list.
Farrell appears to be the perfect man for the job. Beyond being Boston's very successful pitching coach, he pitched for the Indians and worked in their front office. He is also an intellectual heavyweight who should mesh well with GM Mark Shapiro, a Princeton man.

Suddenly, in this cloak-and-dagger world of smoke screens and - we’re still just talking about managing a MLB team right - differing stories are coming from different sources. So what is to be believed?

Has Farrell REALLY pulled his name from the list or is it simply what he has to do at this time as the Red Sox pitching coach to remove any potential distractions during the Red Sox post-season run?

Perhaps Farrell has legitimately and definitely told the Indians that he isn’t interested now and won’t be interested at any time this off-season, but isn’t he just saying pretty much what he’s supposed to say?

Sure, we’d all love if the brilliant exchange imagined by Anthony Castrovince between the assembled beat writers and John Farrell was how things worked on this…and remember, this is FICTIONAL:
Our brains fried from a season of watching bullpen implosions, chasing down trade rumors and, most recently, waiting for the gauntlet to fall on Eric Wedge, Hoynes and I began to invent a dream scenario -- the type of scenario that, if you spent 100 years covering Major League Baseball, would never take place. It goes kind of like this:
Us: "Hey, John."
Farrell: "Hey, great to see you guys! Since you're here, I might as well tell you that I'm 100 percent interested in the Indians' job. In fact, I just got off the phone with Mark Shapiro. I start Tuesday."
Us: "Awesome. What's your Opening Day rotation?"
Farrell: "Westbrook, Carmona, Laffey, Masterson, Huff."
Us: "Great! Anything coming down the pike this winter?"
Farrell: "We're trading Wood on Dec. 10."
Us: "Good to know. Any word on the Press Tour schedule?"
Farrell: "Yep, I've got it right here. I'll see you Jan. 15 in Ashtabula."
Us: "Sounds good."
Somehow, it never works out this way.
That’s gold, AC! Gold!

Maybe Farrell doesn’t have an interest, maybe he does…
Regardless, I don’t think that there’s much doubt that he’s the most obvious and likely best candidate, for reasons already laid out and discussed at length on this week’s “Smoke Signals” (during which Tony mentioned that you could cross Red Sox 1B Coach and former Akron manager Tim Bogar off your list…if you’re keeping such a list), and this new “revelation” that he’s not interested is one that I’m having trouble parsing through.

Perhaps it’s because Farrell seems like such a perfect fit – to the point that Justin Masterson recounted the story of his arriving in Cleveland this week, saying that “the first question I got when I got here was, ‘How’s my boy John Farrell doing?’ ” Masterson said. “That was from everyone.” – that I’m having trouble separating my hope that Farrell is simply giving lip service that he’s not interested from the reality that he may, in fact, not be interested for reasons known only to him.

If he’s not interested, the parallels to the last managerial search may start to get eerie if you remember this piece, written when Eric Wedge was named Tribe skipper on October 22nd:
Anaheim pitching coach Bud Black was Shapiro's No. 1 candidate when the regular season ended. When Black withdrew from consideration before the start of the World Series, Shapiro turned his attention to Wedge.

Wait…an initial front-runner with past ties to the organization, now the pitching coach for a successful franchise, turning the Indians down prior to the postseason?

Is history repeating itself, and if so, who is this year’s Eric Wedge if Farrell is this year’s Black and does indeed pass on being considered?

Really, nobody knows…maybe a guy like a Joey Cora (who interests me only if some sort of “blood feud” were to start with Ozzie Guillen for leaving him to join a divisional rival) makes that list; but at a certain point, it all becomes a list of names that may or may not even be under serious consideration

For those of you who are still in the “Bring Grover Back” camp, here’s a little tidbit from Ken Rosenthal as to how that return to past glory is working in Toronto:
The Blue Jays' rehiring of manager Cito Gaston last season started out as a feel-good story, a link to the franchise's back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and '93.
A mere 15 months later, the mood inside the Jays' clubhouse has turned decidedly sour.
The players are fed up with Gaston and do not want him to return next season, according to multiple major-league sources.
“It's nearly a mutiny right now,” one source says. “He has lost the entire team.”
--snip--
Once the team started losing, Gaston became impatient with his players, sources say. The players, in turn, began tuning him out.

While it looks like Gaston will live to manage another day in Toronto, with Jays’ GM JP Ricciardi getting his walking papers this weekend, the description of Gaston’s second stint in Toronto serves as a reminder that reputation takes a manager only so far in a clubhouse…particularly a clubhouse that doesn’t contain any of your former players.

Maybe Olney’s correct in saying that Bobby Valentine is going to get an interview, in the piece that “removes” Farrell from consideration, but Valentine’s name is just going to be one of many that we’re going to start hearing as rumor and conjecture reign.

One name that I haven’t heard mentioned in connection to taking the job is that of a 34-year-old up-and-coming MiLB manager who has compiled a 391-315 record in the Minors as a manager and whose recent AAA team went 87-57, a year after the AA team he managed went 91-51.
Oh, wait…that was the resume of Eric Wedge, on October 29th of 2002.

Ahem…is this season over yet?

Atomic Fallout

2009-10-01T15:35:00.001-04:00

After continuing the tradition of going to the last game of the season (what can I say, some people enjoy the Home Opener, I enjoy the Home Closer) and watching the corner of Carnegie and Ontario come as alive as I’ve seen it in months as Masterson racked up the K’s in Game 2 of the twin-bill, it’s time for a little post-mortem on the events of Wednesday as the Indians “dismissed” Eric Wedge and his coaching staff.

While Wedge and his coaching staff will remain on board to lead the team in the final few games in Boston, the commendations of Wedge as a man have begun in earnest with the notion that his managing the team through the end of the season (when he knew his fate for quite some time) serves as a reminder that Wedge is, and always has been, a stand-up guy, never prone to throwing any tantrums while restraining from throwing anyone under the bus and never making excuses or placing blame at a desk that was not his own.

All of this is very true and there’s no question that Wedge is an honorable man who has the respect of the players and the organization for being a good soldier in the midst of some very trying times. However, in all of these fond farewells and misty-eyed memories, let’s not lose sight of why this was coming and actually overdue.

Not to step on a man when he’s unquestionably down, but the dismissal of Wedge yesterday has little to do with his honor or his temperament and has everything to do with the performance of the team since the end of 2007 that he was charged with managing.
After the magical run of 2007, let’s remember that the Indians stood at 37-49, 12 games back in the AL Central on the 4th of July in 2008, just past the halfway point of the season.

A season that had started with such promise had (for a myriad of reasons) gone south quickly and three days after the 4th, CC would be on his way to Milwaukee as any and all thoughts of contending in 2008 were out the window with the idea that the pieces that remained, with some additions, would attempt to re-enter the AL Central race in 2009.

As we all know, 2009 began with the idea that the Central remained winnable, despite obvious warts on the Indians’ pitching staff. Once again the Indians scuffled out of the gate into the middle of the summer to the point of (just to keep with that arbitrary date of Independence Day) again sitting 12 games back in the AL Central with a record of 33-49 on July 4th of this year. The trades began again, this time with more than just the reigning Cy Young Award winner punching his ticket out of town, and the hope that existed in the Spring of 2008 had completely evaporated.

More than anything else in Wedge’s tenure, the slow starts of the last two years that essentially deep-sixed those seasons by July, leading to the rationale behind the trade of CC and not quite as obvious rationale behind the trades of Lee and Victor, served as his downfall. In the face of high expectations (perhaps unfairly high in hindsight), Wedge’s teams stumbled to the middle of the season each year, forcing the Front Office to take action with either their pending Free Agents (CC) or to weigh the financial realities of the team against the likelihood that a quick rebound was possible (CP Lee and Vic) for contention in the coming years.

Now, is it fair to heap the blame completely on the shoulders of Wedge and assert that he alone, is responsible for the slow starts and the decisions prompted by the slow starts?

Certainly not, though his fingerprints are at the scene of the crime and when a team underperforms and does not meet expectations (whether those expectations were fair or not), the manager is going to be first in line to get blamed. That’s simply the way that things are done in MLB, and really all pro sports. If a team is in need of a change, the change is made with the manager or the head coach with the idea that a new field general can execute a different and more successful strategy with the same troops.

Is it fair to heap the blame on Wedge solely and think that his departure is magically going to put this team where it was after the 2007 season?
No, but in the hierarchy of the organization, the manager finds himself a rung below those in the Front Office and, given that Wedge is Shapiro’s first real hire as a GM, he’s used up “Get Out of Jail Free” card and the onus is now on Shapiro. With that being said, the fact is that Wedge’s time as manager had come and has now passed and the next head on the chopping block is unquestionably that of Shapiro…or at least it should be.

The troubling aspect of the whole handling of the end of Wedge’s tenure (and the one where Shapiro’s fingerprints abound) is the way that it was strung out from mid-summer to this week as most assumed back in June (or July at the very latest) that Wedge would not be the manager in 2010 and the last three months of the season were an exercise in futility as virtually nothing was accomplished and any positives that could have come out of the season were overwhelmed by the long walk to the execution chamber by the manager.

This is what was written here on July 6th of this year:
A chance to acknowledge that this team is headed down the wrong path by sending a message that poor results won't be tolerated in the name of “stability” and a chance to make a turn off of that wrong path has just been missed. As a result, we find ourselves on this same lonely path, accompanied by a dead man that we still find walking with us.

Isn’t that precisely what happened as the season continues to drag on, with Wedge STILL managing the team through the end of the season?

What was gained by letting Wedge play out the string?
What momentum is there towards 2010?

The fact is that nothing was gained and there is no momentum as the performance of the team from the beginning of 2008 to today, with the moves made by the Front Office reacting to that performance is the reason for where the organization finds itself where it is.

How much of that can be blamed on an honorable guy who honored his commitment and how much of it was simply playing the cards that were dealt to him?
We’ll begin to find out that answer, but the sense that an opportunity to win after the 2007 season was missed and the freefall that the Indians found themselves in after cannot be ignored. One man has walked the plank for the missed opportunity and the ensuing freefall, and the line behind him is starting to form unless this ship gets turned around in a hurry.

The Atomic Bomb Finally Drops

2009-09-30T12:26:00.002-04:00

With news that should come as a surprise to no one, The Atomic Wedgie and his coaching staff have been dismissed. While they will continue to lead the team through the season finale in Boston and there will be much more to come, the Eric Wedge Era has come to a close in Cleveland.

Managing Expectations

2009-09-29T22:52:00.006-04:00

As the calendar days pass away and the zero hour draws closer for the Indians’ manager, it’s finally not too early to talk about the direction that the Indians figure to take in their search for a new skipper of the Good Ship Tribe. A new manager is coming…but what kind of manager should the Indians be targeting – a “fresh set of eyes” to add to an organization grown stale, an experienced hand (perhaps even from the Indians’ past) to bring the group of young players assembled to a level of contention, or somebody from within who would be familiar with the group of said young players with the idea that he would further their development through familiarity and consistency?

Before getting into all of that, let’s firmly establish that the 2010 team that this new manager will be leading is not likely to contend in 2010. Yes, perhaps some things break right for them, but to introduce the new manager with any expectations that 2010 is anything more than a hopeful launching pad past next year is doing the new manager a major disservice by burdening unreasonable goals in front of him. The fact is that…yes, the Central is “winnable”, but that would hinge on the development of the young starting pitching in place for the immediate future.

Maybe we should start there, given that the lineup and bullpen seem (relatively) settled for the short term and the starting pitching would seem to be the indicator of the team’s success, or lack thereof for 2010 and beyond. With that in mind, perhaps there’s something to the idea of bringing aboard a new manager with a pedigree in pitching (regardless of what history says about pitching coaches’ inability to succeed as managers), particularly in the development in young arms.

I know, do we really want a pitching coach to be the manager, or wouldn’t the description above fall under the umbrella of what a…you know…pitching coach should do?

No question, but this organization has fallen short recently of developing home-grown arms that consistently succeed at the MLB level and if the expertise that can be brought to the young pitching staff comes from the manager’s chair as well as from that of the pitching coach, perhaps that’s what the organization needs to get back on track with their prudent (if ill-executed) plan to rely on starting pitching as the pillar of the team.

Obviously, if you’ve been paying attention, you know who fits the very profile that I’m describing as he’s the name that’s been constantly attached to the Indians’ managerial post from the time the embers grew hot under Wedge’s seat – John Farrell.

But wait, you say, doesn’t Farrell have a clause in his contract that precludes him from interviewing for a managerial position until after the 2010 season?
Technically, yes…but there’s this from the Boston Globe:
There’s been much-ado about a clause in Farrell’s contract that prohibits him from taking a managerial job before 2011, as first reported by Foxsports.com. Is it really a big deal? “All it does is create a compensation opportunity for the Red Sox,’’ said one league official. In other words it’s very much like a player with a no-trade clause. It’s negotiable. Farrell has been loyal to the Red Sox and reportedly agreed to have this clause included in his revamped deal that makes him, according to one industry source, the “highest-paid or tied with the highest-paid’’ pitching coach in baseball (with St. Louis’s Dave Duncan). Farrell is likely to stay. However, if Cleveland fires manager Eric Wedge, the Indians are likely to gauge interest by Farrell, who lives in Cleveland. The Cleveland option could be appealing to Farrell, who has had some serious family issues recently, and the Sox are not likely to stand in his way. As part of Farrell’s deal, the Sox are in a good position to receive a player as compensation if Farrell leaves. Sox GM Theo Epstein will not discuss Farrell’s deal, but he did indicate that no team has approached the Sox about employing one of their coaches

True – it says, “Farrell is likely to stay”…but…you’re telling me there’s a chance!

Obviously I’m kidding and not content to simply place all of my managerial eggs in one basket, although I do like the idea of a pitching coach of a successful team who is familiar with the Indians’ organization (former Farm Director), but a few years removed from being IN it with the idea that he would bring a “fresh” set of old eyes to a situation in need of more than a kick start.

However, this is not a one-horse race (I think) and if we’re not boxed into looking only at Farrell, what are the Indians really looking for?
Is it really just something different or somebody that’s not Eric Wedge?

The prevailing sense that fresh blood is needed to reinvigorate the team (and the fan base) seems to be the overwhelming sentiment here, particularly from a Front Office that may or may not be convinced that firing Wedge is the right strategic move. If that is the case, that logic would seem to preclude the promotion of current minor-league managers Torey Lovullo or Mike Sarbaugh, whose ascent to the captain’s wheel would basically be construed as the idea that nothing is wrong with the organization, per se, and that promoting from within is a way to continue on with business as usual at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario…just with a new name on the back of the manager’s jersey.

Given the comments of the Dolans and the groundswell of negativity currently surrounding the regime (some of it brought on by sticking with Wedge, and others, too long), I can’t imagine that anything resembling a continuation of the status quo is going to find much footing.

But it raises an interesting question as to why exactly a move is being made - is that the Dolans are simply trying to pacify the fan base?

If they are, maybe the hires for manager and the coaching staff would just be to add Sandy Alomar as Manager, Omar Vizquel as First Base Coach, Tony Pena as Bench Coach, Charles Nagy as Pitching Coach, and so on and so forth to see if people will buy tickets to cheer for Sandy when he comes out to change pitchers or cheer Omar when he runs out to the First Base Coach box.

Is the nostalgia for the 1990’s that great and that pervasive that anyone really thinks that the best candidates for the job are such because they played on an unquestionably great team in this town 15 years ago?

Is PR the greatest factor?
While it may be for some, putting names in the dugout from the 1990’s does not exactly bring the 1990’s back and, at a certain point, the novelty of it wears off as nostalgia and goodwill certainly factor in as tickets need to be sold and public perception plays a role here, but shouldn’t a track record of player development and finding a person perfectly suited for this particular situation play a role here?

To that end, finding the person perfectly suited for this particular situation, reader Richard Sheir has made the compelling argument to me that Mike Hargrove should be handed the reins to this runaway stagecoach, with the idea that the goodwill that his hiring would bring to the team would buy them some time to mature into a contender as Grover is both accustomed to the local media and adored by them, if for no other reason than the fact that he represents the halcyon days of the “Era of Champions”. His argument continues that Hargrove’s experience with shepherding the teams of the 1990’s from the developmental stage to their AL Central domination will give the Indians’ organization what it needs most from the fanbase – patience – with his track record of presiding over a winner in Cleveland allowing people to buy back into what the Indians are selling.

As I said, it’s about the best argument that I’ve seen for Hargrove being considered to take up his place again in the Indians’ dugout, but a question quickly arises. That is, if Grover is going to get the job, shouldn’t it be because he’s ready for such a challenge, based on the on-the-field circumstances as the first criteria with any goodwill and nostalgia being just icing on the cake? To me, the relevance of what Grover did AFTER he left Cleveland has more bearing on what he did in Cleveland as he was brought into both Baltimore and Seattle to accomplish what he did in Cleveland, and what he would be asked to do again in Cleveland, to develop a group of young players into a perennial contender.
That development did not occur in Baltimore or Seattle under Hargrove:
2000 Orioles: 74-88
2001 Orioles: 63-98
2002 Orioles: 67-95
2003 Orioles: 71-91

2005 Mariners: 69-93
2006 Mariners: 78-84
2007 Mariners: 45-33

Of course, the other relevant factor with Hargrove is the circumstances of him leaving he Mariners in 2007 in the middle of the season because of what he called “losing his fire”, which could be code for a myriad of reasons for him to step down. But in a game like baseball, where quitting in any fashion and for any reason is never forgotten (fair or not), Hargrove’s exit calls into question (again, fair or not) about his purported readiness to lead men once again and likely moves him out of reasonable contention for the managerial position…as does his 467-582 record since leaving the Indians, tasked with exactly the job that the Indians are looking to accomplish starting in 2010 at both of those stops.

Now, some of Grover’s struggles in Baltimore and Seattle can be traced to the players that he was hired to manage…but that double-edged sword can be wielded just as easily when you point to his success in Cleveland, when he was asked to handle a lineup full of likely Hall of Famers and potential Hall of Famers.

That gets down to the next point of looking for this new manager as you have to wonder what past results really indicate in terms of what can be expected from a manager. Who would have thought that the 2001 Indians’ organization would boast back-to-back World Series managers by the end of the decade in Terry Francona (Special Assistant to the GM in 2001) and 2001 Tribe Manager Charlie Manuel?

Certainly neither manager’s first stint indicated wild future success as Francona’s first stint as a manager in Philly ended disastrously, never finishing above .500 in four years and with Ol’ Cholly…well, I’m not going to say he “quit” as manager in Cleveland.

Is past MLB success a necessity to succeed again in the Bigs, or is it really just a matter of finding the right voice at the right time…with some great players to go along with the situation?

The landscape is filled with names that we’ve all heard of that have won in some fashion or another and find themselves on the outside looking in on the 30 spots to manage an MLB team. The names get thrown around every off-season, with additions made every year after the batch of after the season firings. We’re going to hear them in connection to any and all job openings – Bob Brenly, Clint Hurdle, Davey Johnson, Willie Randolph, Larry Bowa, Phil Garner, etc. There’s a list that even has Indians’ ties in one way or another – Buddy Bell, Buck Showalter, Grady Little, Tony Pena, Jim Riggleman, etc.

Any of those names legitimately get your blood moving?
All of them have had successes and failures and have managed MLB teams…but does that mean that any of them are ready to move into the Indians’ specific situation and succeed?

Nobody knows, just like nobody knows if that list of guys actually in coaching who have not been MLB managers, but have Indians’ ties falls under that umbrella of being the “right guy” for the job. Do the likes of Travis Fryman, Ellis Burks, Robby Thompson, Sal Fasano, Joey Cora, Chris Chambliss, or Dave Clark (all former Tribe players thought to be “manager material” at one point or another…without even mentioning Sandy and Omar) really get you excited? Throw out the necessity to be an ex-Indian and guys like Ron Roenicke (the Angels’ bench coach) jump out with the idea that the Indians can find the next Joe Maddon – somebody who is NOT that “yes” man, who does not represent a continuation of the status quo…the one that we “enjoyed” from June to today.

There you have 21 names that could be the next Indians’ manager or could just as easily never even hit the Indians’ radar. Unfortunately for us, there is not the “hot NFL assistant” coach pool in MLB, with the idea that particular coaches prove themselves ready for the next step through success of their particular unit, or former coaches sitting on the sidelines waiting for right opportunity. In baseball, it remains a crapshoot…where Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa remain the exceptions to the rule and not the rule.

With all of that in mind, if you’re asking me and twisting my arm for an answer, I’d like to see some combination of freshness and stability (if that’s even possible), by realizing the situation that this organization is in very clearly in that they have a good number of talented, but young, players who need to develop as a group to shorten the “re-build”, “re-load”, whatever timeframe. If you’ve been following along at all, I think it’s pretty obvious that the “freshness” that I speak of then goes along with the idea that Farrell represents the best option for manager in that he’s a known quantity in the Indians’ Front Office who has now spent a sufficient amount of time away from Cleveland in one of the most successful organizations to lend insight to his old stomping grounds. His familiarity with players from his days as Farm Director, and as an opposing pitching coach could lend invaluable insight as he could bring in new ideas without asserting himself too strongly into the organization, with the built-in respect from the Front Office that no other candidate would offer.

That “stability” could come from the coaching staff and, realizing that the construction of a coaching staff is often a manager’s task and the input of the organization in filling out a coaching staff remains to be seen, an important aspect of that development should come from filling out the coaching staff with guys like Mike Sarbaugh, who has proven himself to be effective with many of these young players (making the playoffs in 5 of his 6 years as a MiLB manager, winning his respective league in three of those years) and Scott Radinsky, who has plied his trade on young pitchers for a few years now, often fixing problems that the parent club has been unable to correct.

Beyond the likes of Sarbaugh and Radinsky and even Lovullo (Farrell’s teammate on the 1993 California Angels), he could bring new voices, if not new eyes, with people already in the organization like Ellis Burks or Travis Fryman lending their insight to players they’re familiar, but not exposed to on an everyday basis.
The way it breaks down looks something like this:
Manager – John Farrell
Bench Coach – Travis Fryman
Hitting Coach – Ellis Burks
Pitching Coach – Scott Radinsky
1B Coach – Mike Sarbaugh
3B Coach – Torey Lovullo
Bullpen Coach – Sal Fasano

Regardless of who the Indians’ manager figures to be (and if it’s true that Bud Black was their first choice in the winter of 2002, you see that the pattern could be there for them to hit on the pitching coach to become manager this time…assuming the price is right), 2010 is a rebuilding year that ideally serves as the jumping off point for the next stage of this franchise’s history. The young talent in place needs to developed by coaches used to handling and developing young talent and not adverse to the growing pains associated with that development.

With the idea that pitching is the key to the success of the next incarnation of the Indians and with the concept that Farrell’s long history with the Indians and recent history with the Red Sox make him ideally suited to helm the development of the Indians in 2010 and beyond.

An Atomic Lazy Sunday

2009-09-27T07:17:00.003-04:00

As the season has turned to the time for Clambakes and Oktoberfest from GLBC, the Indians’ season rolls right on and, as the final games wind down, the Indians’ season has little left of interest. When the season ends though…that’s a whole different story as reading the tea leaves long ago told us that the final game of 2009 would be The Atomic Wedgie’s last game as manager of the Erie Warriors. Not surprisingly, that very topic is the topic of the day (among others) as we roll off into a Lazy Sunday:

The eulogies have begun for The Atomic Wedgie, including this one from Shelly Ocker, with me lifting my season-long ban on linking Sheldon, just long enough for him to make the startling assertion that “regardless of whether Wedge returns next year, he will have made an impact in Cleveland. Only four managers have guided the Tribe longer than Wedge, who is fifth in wins (557) and is one of only four Cleveland skippers to win a postseason series.”

If you were looking for a legacy for Wedge, there it is from Ocker, being 5th in wins (failing to mention that he’s 4th in games managed) as an “impact” essentially because he was (and, yes…I’m using past tense already) manager for seven years. If Wedge’s fate is sealed (and even he seems resigned to that fact if you read his words here) and this is the best thing that Ocker can muster up in his eulogy (5th in wins without mentioning that he’s also 3rd in games lost…and only 24 losses behind Mike Hargrove, who managed nearly 200 more games), that’s not exactly the fondest farewell.

For a pretty good sense of why Wedge will find himself still drawing a paycheck, but not managing a big-league team in about 10 days, let’s refer to the Indians’ entry in Baseball Prospectus’ series of team obits, appropriately called “Kiss ‘Em Goodbye”:
The Indians have approached the last several seasons with an eye on contending. In three of those four years, though, they've stumbled out of the gate, dooming their chances of playing meaningful games after June. In the process, they've had to make deals, including shipping away the past two AL Cy Young winners. They've brought back some quality prospects, but it's clear that they're in no position to contend in 2010, mainly because they haven't had much success with their high draft picks in recent years. Given their penchant for underachieving on skipper Eric Wedge's watch, they're almost certainly better off with a new manager, too.

To that end (the “new manager” part that I admittedly bolded), AC comes correct and in full effect with a look as to why The Atomic Wedgie won’t be helming the good ship Tribe a week from now:
Though Shapiro has always backed Wedge publicly, the decision is ultimately believed to be in the hands of the Dolan ownership family. Team president Paul Dolan recently told reporters that Wedge's accomplishments over his full body of work in seven seasons at the helm are significant, but he also voiced dissatisfaction with the club's performance over the last two seasons and acknowledged that Wedge's popularity among fans is at a low point.
--snip--
Though player development is a primary focus in the season's second half, the club's 3-16 record in September can't possibly serve to strengthen the job security of Wedge or his coaches. Wedge held a team meeting with his players in Minneapolis last week -- a rare move for a club out of contention this late in the season -- in which he stressed the importance of finishing strong. The Indians proceeded to lose their next seven games.

Obviously, since the time that was written, losses in their “next seven games” turned quickly into 11games and this creep to the finish, not surprisingly, has taken the air out of the argument (that AC alluded to above) that Shapiro may have had in keeping Wedge, as SI.com’s Jon Heyman asserts:
Eric Wedge's chances to keep the Indians managing job are decreasing by the day. The Indians have now lost 11 straight, so it should be no surprise that GM Mark Shapiro is now being pressured to fire Wedge, according to people familiar with the Cleveland situation.
--snip--
Shapiro is believed to have had no intention to fire Wedge. But with the Indians having been outscored 71-30 in their 11-game slide, it's becoming increasingly difficult to make a compelling case to keep him as manager. His salary for 2010 is believed to be for $1.25 million, but the cash-strapped Indians saved about $15 million for next year with the trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.

Heyman ends the bit with his obligatory mention of John Farrell as a likely candidate to replace him, and I suppose it’s finally time to release a look at potential managerial candidates this week that go a little deeper than “bench coach experience a plus”.

Since most people have focused on John Farrell from Day 1 on this idea that Wedge wouldn’t be managing in 2010, perhaps now might be a good time to mention one name that will not appear on the list of prospective candidates that I’ll work up this week.

That name is…wait for it…John Farrell, who has a clause in his contract with the Red Sox that prevents him from interviewing for managerial positions until after the 2010 season, according to Ken Rosenthal:
The exact length and complete terms of Farrell's contract are not known, but he likely gave up his right to manage before 2011 in exchange for a like show of commitment by the Red Sox. Rival teams repeatedly have asked for permission to interview Farrell, sources said.

And…boom goes the dynamite.

Not sure if the Indians knew this and just never let it on or if this revelation by Rosenthal is just that – a startling revelation – or even if there’s an avenue around the clause. I suppose the pie-eyed optimist could say that his contract doesn’t mention anything about Farrell making a lateral move to another organization (like becoming a pitching coach for a certain former team of his), but I think it’s pretty safe to cross Farrell off the list of potential managers or coaches for the 2010 Tribe, given that a buy-out or an agreement with the Red Sox would have to be consummated.

Who does make that list? Stay tuned...
One name who may make that list (perhaps more as a potential coaching staff candidate than as a managerial candidate…though I have heard the argument for him to be the 2010 manager) is the subject of a very personal-interest story from SI.com’s Jeff Pearlman. Pearlman relays the amazing story of Sal Fasano as husband and father, recounting his struggle to provide for his family in light of health issues for his young son in an absolute must-read:
Two years ago, just when Fasano was thinking of finally retiring, his wife, Kerri, gave birth to the couple's third child, a boy named Santo. He was born with hypoplastic heart syndrome, a condition in which the left side of the heart is underdeveloped. “It was devastating, of course,” Sal says. “Your son is helpless, and there's not that much you can do.”

There was one thing Sal could do -- find a way to remain in the major leagues. Although baseball diehards who salivate over the perks of the game tend to speak of cathedral-like stadiums and million-dollar paychecks, of fancy travel and high-profile endorsements and red carpet fame, an element they tend to overlook is the major league health plan. If you are a ballplayer, and you spend so much as a second on a major league roster, you are entitled to a year of coverage that, says one major league executive, “takes care of pretty much everything you can think of.”

That's why, in 2007, Fasano was thrilled to spend 16 games with the Toronto Blue Jays. Last season, being called up by the Cleveland Indians in June was an answered prayer. “We need the coverage,” Fasano says, noting that, thus far, Santo has undergone two surgeries exceeding $1 million in costs. “Playing major league baseball is awesome. I love it, I enjoy it. But this is about my family first. About Santo.”

I don’t know how much a bullpen coach makes, but I would imagine that they’d be included in health coverage…so, is it time to start a grassroots movement for Sal Fasano to be a part of the Indians’ 2010 coaching staff?

Sticking with SI.com and changing gears a bit, here’s a look at the FA market this off-season (something the Indians shouldn’t be entertaining in the least, even if Paul Hoynes thinks they need a veteran catcher despite the fact that Toregas, Gimenez, and Marson have caught all of the principal options throughout their minor-league careers…not to mention the fact that Sal Fasano WILL be around) from Joe Sheehan, who concludes that, “if teams want to invest wisely, they should take this winter's free-agent budget and buy a 12-month CD. Next year's class could be a monster, with the possibility that Joe Mauer, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett and Cliff Lee will be available.”

While the names listed above certainly wouldn’t legitimately be in the Indians’ crosshairs, the idea of adding a piece in 2011 (and NOT this off-season) certainly starts to make sense when you figure that the contract of Westbrook ($11M), Wood ($10.5M, assuming his option doesn’t vest), and maybe Peralta ($7M option for 2011 that certainly looks unlikely to be picked up) all figure to be coming off of the books after 2010, if not sooner, as the chance of any or all of those three being traded mid-season in 2010 is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Thus, if we’re not figuring that the Indians will make no ripples in the Free Agent pool this winter, what can we get excited about in terms of adding players to the organization? Well, as the Indians’ dropped in the standings down the homestretch, the one thing that did climb for them (and could continue to climb) is their spot in the 2010 MLB Draft.

With the Nationals and Pirates unquestionably locked into the top two picks, the Indians look, right now at least, to be somewhere between pick #3 and #5 (unless Wedge has one last parting shot for the organization and inexplicably goes on a hot streak to drop them) in next summer’s draft. While this type of conjecture is usually reserved for the end of a Browns’ season (and while I try to figure out who the Mel Kiper-equivalent of this MLB draft thing is), I actually went out and found a 2010 MLB Mock Draft…no, seriously.

Remembering that the Tigers and the Royals found their aces in the top 6 picks of the amateur draft, I’m going to start following LSU’s Anthony Ranuando, Ole Miss’ Drew Pomerantz, and UNC’s Matt Harvey.

OK, maybe I won’t, but until the imminent firing of Wedge actually takes place…yes, it’s come to that.
Until then, where’s that Oktoberfest?

Three Months Later

2009-09-24T13:05:00.003-04:00

After regrettably spending Wednesday night at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario and seeing a listless, lifeless team that has unquestionably quit on a manager whose fate is already sealed, I thought that I would re-post something that I wrote here exactly 3 months prior to last night’s shellacking at the hands of the Motor City Kitties.

The piece was written after the Cubs series in mid-June and, while I’m often loathe to simply re-post past pieces, the fact that nearly everything that the piece contains (with the exception of the idea that CP Lee and Vic would still be around in 2010) still rings true is a stunning indictment of allowing the status quo to continue when the status quo is so obviously flawed…the fact that there’s really not much to say about this team that hasn’t been said for months being another reason for the re-post.

It should be noted that the Indians’ record is 31-47 (.397 winning percentage) from the time that this was originally posted (when the Indians were 29-42, a .408 winning percentage) and while the make-up of the team from that time to today is unquestionably different, the results are unfortunately not.

Regardless, it’s interesting to read with “new eyes” after witnessing what we have (particularly in the past month or so) and to think that this was the pervasive feeling a full three months ago and it’s somehow gone downhill since this:
The Blame Game – 6/23/09
As Eric Wedge apparently lives to manage another day and voices on each side of the debate as to whether he is to blame (or how much blame can be placed on him) for the mess of the 2009 season on top of the 2008 season, the question comes rattling from the rooftops – who is to blame for the mess that the Indians find themselves in?

While the fickle finger of fate has blame resting on shoulders as varied as Wedge, Shapiro, Wedge AND Shapiro, the Dolans, and Luis Isaac (OK, I made that last one up), why does this suddenly feel like the climax of “Reservoir Dogs” where everyone is staring down the barrel of a gun, voices in the room rising, and the knowledge overwhelming all of us that this isn’t going to end well?

Starting with the man who must be feeling cold steel on his forehead with the events of the past week, how culpable is Eric Wedge for the hole that the Indians find themselves in?

At the top, let’s forgo the notion that the Indians have “quit” on Wedge as their current 6-game losing streak at the hands of the Brewers and Cubs included two 2-run losses and three 1-run losses, so it’s not as if the players are simply going through the motions and getting blown out on a nightly basis. Rather, look at the manner in which they lost those games in that they were outscored by a slim margin and if you believe (as I do) that a manager earns his stripes by winning these close games as opposed to losing them as strategy often plays a factor in close games or extra-inning games, you start to see where the frustration with The Atomic Wedgie is starting to boil over.

All season long, the Indians have found themselves in winnable games only to see the bats go silent or the bullpen explode at the worst possible times, resulting in the demoralizing come-from-ahead loss that has colored the Tribe’s 2009 season. Put away for a moment that this is on the players and their lack of execution (which is certainly part of the equation) and realize that a manager’s main functions in MLB are to fill out a lineup card which divvies up AB, to set a rotation, and to decide which relievers come into the game at which time.

Sure, there’s are daily questions that come up in terms of managerial decisions (a favorite quote of mine is that every man thinks he can do two things better than anyone else on the planet – grill a steak and manage a baseball team), but a manager’s job in MLB is essentially to put his best players on the field and to give those players the best opportunity to succeed in a given situation.

For a moment, let’s remove ourselves from the emotional train wreck of the past week and take a longer overview of the Indians performance under Wedge as a manager by analyzing how he’s stacked against a formula that actually exists to predict how many games a team should win and should lose (please not the “should” and realize that this is not a hard-and-fast formula) by taking the number of runs scored by a team and the number of runs allowed by a team. Created by Bill James (and tweaked a few times), it’s called the Pythagorean Winning Percentage and it’s used to take “luck” out of the equation.

Now, if we’re taking luck out of the equation, I’d like a quick answer on why exactly a formula that generally is off by only a couple of wins and losses from year to year (with one or two outliers) has these results for the Indians for the past 5 years, which would be the years in which the Indians did contend in the AL Central or were thought to be among the contenders when the season started:
2009 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
29-42 (29th of 30)
2009 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
34-37 (19th of 30)

2008 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
81-81 (17th of 30)
2008 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
86-76 (14th of 30)

2007 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
97-66 (1st of 30)
2007 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
94-69 (3rd of 30)

2006 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
78-84 (18th of 30)
2006 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
90-72 (5th of 30)

2005 Actual Record (rank among 30 MLB teams)
93-69 (5th of 30)
2005 Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage (rank among 30 MLB teams)
97-65 (2nd of 30)

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 4 out of the last 5 years (I’m not anticipating a HUGE turnaround this year) that the Indians have underperformed their Pythagorean Expected Winning Percentage, some of which happen to represent a pretty big disparity:
2009 – 5 more losses thus far
2008 – 5 more losses
2007 – 3 more wins
2006 – 12 more losses
2005 – 4 more losses

Obviously, the quick answer to why this is happening (without laying blame at any one person) is that a lousy bullpen can go a long way in losing a number of games that would otherwise be winnable, skewing the numbers to the negative.

But why is it, then, that Wedge keeps presiding over these horrific bullpens?

Is it really that the arms aren’t there to populate the bullpen to become effective as a unit or does usage of the available arms in the bullpen play a factor?

Want to know who the 4 best relievers are in the second best bullpen (ERA-wise) in MLB?
Mark Lowe – Age 26 – ERA+ 120
Miguel Batista – Age 38 – ERA+ 131
Sean White – Age 28 – ERA+ 234
David Aardsma – Age 27 – ERA+ 264

There’s the back end of the Seattle bullpen…are you telling me that those guys are that much more talented than the arms that have played a role in the Indians’ bullpen this year? Is it really just a case of getting guys who are cresting or is something more at play here?

I’m not going to pretend to know how to handle a pitching staff, but if the same guy is pulling the levers in the bullpen over a prolonged stretch and the pulling of those levers continually results in an explosion, isn’t there something to be questioned about the lever-puller, particularly when other teams are able to cobble together effective bullpens with cast-offs and young arms? I know that it’s probably unfair to simply say that Wedge is consistently pulling the wrong lever when it’s up to the players to execute, but unfortunately Wedge’s track record of handling usage for players (both pitchers and non-pitchers) has come under fire with the flame getting ever hotter this year.

Perhaps it’s the most recent issue, the handling of a particular OF being promoted earlier than expected this year only to sit on the bench while players whose track records where known and did not justify his prolonged absence from the lineup that has cast more doubt than ever before in terms of Wedge maximizing the talent available to him or, at the very least, putting his best talent on the field and putting them in the best possible situations for success. However, if we can throw doubt on the handling of LaPorta – which may be the tipping point in terms of the “attached-at-the-hip” relationship in terms of Shapiro making an option available to Wedge to improve the team and Wedge simply ignoring him for lesser players – doesn’t it suddenly (or maybe not so suddenly) become a questioning of every personnel move that he makes, where the focus of the magnifying glass grows hotter by the day?

And that’s where we stand now, unfortunately, as the news that a Wedge move may not come until after the season only allows this lost season to become an episode of “Cold Case” where we may not ever find out what happened and the longer the time gets between our last observance of any semblance of a season makes a recovery less likely. At a certain point, we just wish we could have it back.

Obviously, however, Wedge is not alone in his responsibility for the 2009 season and to simply lay the blame on his shoulders is folly. No, the issues go much deeper than that as Mark Shapiro is the man who oversaw the mishandling of personnel over the last few years, as Brendan Donnelly and Juan Rincon continued to see innings down the stretch last year and as Dave Dellucci arrived to the team this season to essentially take AB away from players that figured into the Indians’ future because Wedge apparently had more trust in a known quantity (even if not known for doing much good) than the development of players.

With the Indians, the buck ultimately stops at Shapiro’s desk as the Dolans have given him control of the baseball side of the team and, while maybe not always providing him with a payroll found in other larger markets, asked him to keep the product on the field competitive to a point that the playoffs was always a rational thought as each season began and to keep the flow of players coming to infuse the team with young talent.

To that end, Shapiro has not held up his end of the bargain, particularly this year where it was almost expected that the rotation would be a mishmash of players who would hopefully evolve into something effective by the time that Jake Westbrook returned. Or where it was expected that some of the players that were fighting to earn everyday AB to fall into the complementary roles that they should be finding themselves in.
Who among us counted Francisco and Garko as linchpins to the season?
How about Dellucci…Sowers?

Wasn’t the thought that if (that should be a big IF) the likes of Sowers, Francisco, Garko, and Pavano could hold on until the cavalry arrived from that the Indians could still compete in a very winnable division?

Regardless, the team wasn’t able to even hold ground in the Central and the player acquisition through the draft ultimately comes down as another culprit. Just as Shapiro is culpable for allowing Wedge to misuse and waste the players given to him, he bears just as much responsibility for “overseeing” John Mirabelli as he ran the draft from 2000 to 2007. As we sit here today, the pitcher drafted in those 8 years with the most wins (Sowers) for the Indians with 13 career wins also possesses a career ERA+ of 86 and the player drafted in those 8 years with the most HR (Garko) as an Indian with 48 now owns a .796 career OPS as a 28-year-old 1B.

There’s no question that mistakes have been made and as much as most of this was foreseen coming into the season (and exposed to the bone by injuries), the cupboard to me still doesn’t look as bare as most make it out to be. Pardon me while I put on these rose-colored glasses, but I don’t see the Indians suddenly entering a period of massive losing if only based on what the Indians lineup should look like at the end of July, with the current ages listed in parentheses below:
C – Martinez (30)
1B – LaPorta (24)
2B – Valbuena (23)
SS – Cabrera (23)
3B – Peralta (27)
LF – Brantley (22)
CF – Sizemore (26)
RF – Choo (26)
DH – Hafner (32)

Yes, the offense hasn’t been the problem this year and if you’ll remember, I was the one decrying the shortage in the bullpen and rotation as this season ground to a halt, but look again at that list above and see how the Indians have put themselves in this position, offensively at least.

The players acquired via trade include everyone listed above but Martinez and Peralta…every other piece of talent that the Indians should expect to be in their lineup some time after the All-Star Break came from elsewhere, and for whom?
Yes, CC and Colon…but also Broussard, Perez, Gutierrez, and Einar Diaz.
And, yes, the reason for that needed infusion of talent that was needed is directly related to a failure to acquire and develop young talent from within (which is precisely what we’re seeing bear out in the pitching staff), but if you’re talking about who’s acquiring that talent, you’re back to the GM whose moves to counteract problems (that truthfully shouldn’t have been problems in the first place) earn him some credit for the young talent on the offensive side of things. How he manages to do the same for the pitching side of things will likely determine his ultimate fate but the track record of overcoming obstacles (albeit self-inflicted obstacles) is there in terms of augmentation of the roster.

Ultimately, however, the culpability falls to Shapiro whose attitude of “trust us, we know what we’re doing” has come crashing around him as staying the course and sticking with people around him who seemingly do not know what they’re doing (or are some of the most historically unlucky people in history) have laid waste to the best laid plans.

If we’ve been told to trust, the statute of limitations on that has run out and the state of love and trust is moving to revolution as moves need to be made in this organization as the stability and the status quo that have run amok (and run in the wrong direction for too long) have taken us to the path that we now find ourselves upon.

Is it hopeless and are we readying ourselves for another 40 years in the desert?
I don’t think so, but a change in culture is needed and while that change may not go all the way to the top of the organization (yet), a message that the results of this season and last are unacceptable needs to be sent. If that means that Wedge is jettisoned, so be it with the idea that finding a suitable long-term replacement is not going to be as easy as simply picking up a phone in late June and seeing if Option #1 has some free time.

Change is needed and not just for change’s sake and every day that passes until a change (any change) is made makes the idea that 2010 becomes another rebuilding or re-loading year all the more obvious, where hopes and prayers take the place of known quantities and realities…because hopes and prayers are all we have now in the face of a very cold reality.

Now three months later, excuse me while I go get sick…and, of course, get ready to sit in the Mezz for Friday night’s game.

When “Pathetic” Starts With an “A”

2009-09-22T22:09:00.004-04:00

“The thrill is gone
It’s gone away from me
The thrill is gone baby
The thrill is gone away from me
Although I’ll still live on
But so lonely I’ll be”
--- BB King

As the end of the 2009 baseball season can’t come soon enough for Indians’ fans, there certainly seems to be a different aura around this final month of baseball than years past that fell into this same “lost season” category as 2009. It certainly seems that the cumulative effect of disappointing seasons in 2008 and 2009 have run the fanbase ragged and left most fans wondering if the season is still even going on.

Going back a few years, September baseball remained compelling (even if the season was essentially over) for baseball diehards, who remained relatively excited as the team played out the end of 2008 or 2004 or even 2003 (my inexplicable first year as an Indians season-ticket holder) as hope for the near future, or at least steps in the right direction, seemed to portend happier days ahead. While the assembled group that we’re watching finish up this season for the Tribe unquestionably has talent and merits excitement, even the most inspiring pieces and parts come with reminders of mistakes made and already carry a feeling of “what-could-have-been” with them.

Every LaPorta extra-base hit reminds us that he wasn’t in Cleveland in June, just as every fantastic play by Asdrubal at SS is a reminder that he inexplicably started the season at 2B, throwing the whole infield off kilter to start the season

Throw the new disappointments on top of the old ones and it’s nearly impossible not to view each start by Jeremy Sowers as a reminder that he was never able to translate the success of his 2006 into a permanent roster spot, or to allow every pitch thrown by Fausto Carmona to serve as a jarring reminder that 2007 may be further away for him than just two calendar years.

Even when trying to simply separate the day-to-day from the big picture, the fact that Kerry Wood’s BB rate has doubled from last year to this while his HR rate has tripled depresses enough. When you remember that he’s still wearing a $10.5M price tag for next year, the depression deepens.

Despite all of these reminders of frustration though, it seems like we’ve entered a new stage of viewing the Indians in this 2009 season. Anger, blame, and disappointment have passed (now a full six weeks past CP Lee and Vic being traded) and the whole bargaining process (you know the one that hyped up Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco being MLB- ready right now) has been exhausted…no, apathy has set in.

The sense that we just don’t care has coincided (maybe not so coincidentally) with this recent slide into the AL Central cellar and as the Browns’ season starts (at least the games are on TV, though will someone please let me know when they start “playing”) and the Cavaliers look to be poised for a deep run into the summer of 2010, the Indians have been pushed to the back of Northeast Ohio’s collective mind – even among those who found solace in positives from the second half of last year.

Perhaps not being able to find those silver linings among the clouds of gray that we’ve relied upon in years past is a result of the lesson that “past performance is not an indication of future results”, particularly in terms of projecting anything on the basis of August or September being our lesson learned and the wet blanket over the remainder of this season. Regardless (and maybe I’m alone…though I don’t think I am), the painful home stretch that’s occurring right now is doing nothing to elicit a buzz

Does this mean that all hope is lost for 2010?
Certainly not, as baseball remains a fickle muse and watching this team on a daily basis has been a reminder that the currently constructed team is a young team (even if it does contain talent) that is going to struggle to establish and maintain some level of consistency, with the idea that when that consistency is attained remains the great question.

The fact remains that the 2010 lineup is quickly coming into view, even if it’s not necessarily the one that leaves Goodyear, with the notion that the offense could represent one of the better offensive outputs once 2010 progresses (with Carl Santana not far off):
C – Marson
1B – LaPorta
2B – Valbuena
SS – Cabrera
3B – Peralta
LF – Brantley
CF – Sizemore
RF – Choo
DH – Hafner

Beyond the burgeoning offense, the bullpen has shown that the pieces may FINALLY be in place to cobble together an effective combination of relievers who have the capability to miss bats. Chris Perez looks like a future closer, just as Tony Sipp looks like a dominant late-inning LHP, as other arms may be emerging to allow the organization to fill a bullpen with internal options.

But the concerns about the rotation and the myriad of directions that every pitcher that figures into the rotation next year could take prevents any great optimism from emerging. While the offense and bullpen seem to have settled (or at least show signs of stability), the rotation remains the great mystery.

Realizing the importance of starting pitching (and particularly realizing that this whole “Plan” was designed to be built upon the bedrock of starting pitching), the optimism starts to die for this team. The fact is that I want to believe and I want to care about these meaningless September tilts…I really do.

But the reality that the atmosphere around the team is stagnant (a startling revelation when you consider the roster turnover of the season) is too pervasive to truly garner any excitement about the team that’s being trotted out there as the season winds down.

Is it related to the players or the disappointments associated with the past two years?
Maybe, as we’ve now been conditioned to bring our grain of salt with us…

Will the certain change in manager make a difference?
Probably, at least from a standpoint of perception that something is being done and that something will change. It’s likely that a long winter without nightly baseball games without looking at a disappointing team would help. Because at this point, as apathy persists and expectations hover in the depths, anything would help.

A Lazy Sunday Playing Out the String

2009-09-20T07:39:00.002-04:00

Losers of seven straight and now just one game ahead of the hapless Royals at the bottom of the AL Central, does anyone else find it amazing that this team continues to find itself sinking to new lows even now?

For a team that hasn’t shown signs of life with a stable full of rookies operating under a lame-duck manager, let’s take a quick trip around a Lazy Sunday before enjoying a beautiful Fall afternoon filled with football and outdoor activities and…maybe, just maybe some Indians’ baseball:

Starting off, SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a fairly succinct look at what occurred in 2009 for the Indians and what 2010 looks like. I’m not quite sure why he believes that, “They will still need to go out and get another innings eater after also sending Carl Pavano away in the purge, and the trades of Martinez and Lee should give them a few dollars to spend (it saved them $21 million between this year and next)”, but he presents a fair synopsis of where the Indians have been and where they may be going, concluding with the obligatory John Farrell for manager mention, which Paul Hoynes doesn’t seem to be on board with, asserting that bench coach experience may be at or near the top of Shapiro’s list of notable bullet points necessary on a new manager’s résumé.

Keeping it in the SI family, a couple of Tribesman make SI’s 2009 Overshadowed All-Stars team in the most recent print edition and it shouldn’t come as a surprise as to which two Ben Reiter picks:
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians The 23-year-old has blossomed in his first year as Cleveland's shortstop: He was hitting .313 with 63 RBIs and 16 steals through Sunday.
--snip--
OF: Shin-Soo Choo, Indians He's emerged as an all-around threat in his first full season as a major league starter, hitting .299 with 15 homers and 19 steals.

In a season with few bright spots, the two former Mariners stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the Indians’ players in terms of meeting and exceeding expectations on a team that didn’t have many players that hit either of those criteria.

On the topic of bright spots, and specifically The BLC, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick put together a list listing “Under-the-radar OF who’ve emerged”, Choo-Choo-Choosing a certain South Korean RF for the list:
Shin-Soo Choo, Indians (.393 OBP, 16 homers, 19 steals)
Choo's numbers have actually dipped a bit from 2008, when he posted a 1.038 OPS after the All-Star break. But he deserves credit for sustaining it over the long haul this season, without a lot of help.
--snip--
Choo's tools might not overwhelm you in a single viewing, but he's proficient in all facets of the game. He's developing into a 20-25 homer guy. He's improved against lefties. He's an instinctive baserunner, with 19 steals in 21 attempts. And he has 11 assists in right field to help offset seven errors.
He also plays with a quiet determination and toughness, and hangs in the box no matter who's pitching. Choo has been hit by a pitch 14 times, the fourth-highest total in the majors.
--snip--
"Cleveland did a really good job of evaluating," an AL scout said. "They always felt he was going to be this type of guy. I'm not sure the industry as a whole had him evaluated that high."

Also making Crasnick’s list is Frank the Tank, whose defense in the CF expanses in the Emerald City have certainly put him on the national map, thanks in part to his seemingly-nightly inclusion in “Web Gems”. While Franky is still struggling against RHP this year, posting a .678 OPS vs. RHP (and with the caveat that I think I’d still make that trade today given Louie the Fifth’s potential), it’s tough to see the 26-year-old smooth-fielding CF run down balls in a uniform that doesn’t read “Cleveland”.
Anyone else find it strangely compelling that Frank and The BLC make this list wearing the laundry of the opposite organizations for whom they made their MLB debut?

Why do I start with all of this (relative) good news?
Well, frankly…we need it right now, particularly given what we’re seeing on a nightly basis and in the box scores and as easy as it is to simply pile on, I’m going to try my best to see this barely-filled cup as half-full, if only for a little bit of this beautiful Sunday morning.

Because, trust me…there’s plenty of sobering news with today’s contribution coming by way of John Fraase’s “Waves of Arms”, which has an interesting look at how the performance of the AL Central rotations stack up in terms of starts that last 7 innings with fewer than 3 earned runs allowed. It goes a step past the old “Quality Start” with the moniker of the “Nolan Standard” after Ranger’s exec Nolan Ryan:
In Texas, Ryan and his staff have upped the ante. They have added an inning and deemed a Quality Start an effort in which a pitcher goes at least 7 innings and allows 3 earned runs or fewer. The industry wide accepted 6/3 QS is fools gold.

John analyzes the Indians’ totals (35 of the 145 starts), who contributes to those totals, and how they stack up against the rest of the Central:
Lee and Pavano accounted for 21 of the 35 total starts. And neither managed to stick with the team beyond 22 starts. The so-called “core” of guys whom the Indians will have to choose from internally for the 2010 rotation are Jake Westbrook, Carrasco, Masterson, Laffey, Carmona, Sowers and Huff. This group (not including Jake) made just 12/87, or 13.8% of their starts, a Nolan Ryan standard quality outing.
--snip--
Overall, the division in order from top to bottom goes like this:
Chicago: 47
Minnesota: 45
Detroit: 40
Kansas City 37
Cleveland 35

Realizing that pitching, and more specifically starting pitching, will determine how the 2010 season unfolds for the Tribe…this…this is not exactly anything on the bright or sunny side. It is fascinating research and sound conclusions, but it is not good (at all) for the 2010 Indians.

Of course we could always hope that the 2010 Tribe will be shined on by the same “Baseball Gods” that Joe Posnanski believes may have affected the Cardinals season this year:
The Baseball Gods have been good to St. Louis this year. The Cardinals came into the season with an ace who had not won a game in two years, a closer who not long ago was a middling starter, a starter who not long ago was a dominant closer, an outfielder at second base, a pitcher in centerfield and one superstar—the game's best player, really—who was coming off elbow surgery last October. They have since added a discarded legend, an unwanted middle infielder and a three-time National League All-Star who suffered a power outage in the American League. Picked to finish anywhere but first in the National League Central, the Cardinals probably will be the first team in baseball to clinch a division title, perhaps as soon as next week.

Then again, coaching and player development may have something to do with that and, not knowing whose going to be filling out the lineup cards (or doing any other sort of coaching for the Tribe next year), it all looks fairly unlikely to assume that type of “divine intervention”…particularly seeing what we’ve seen for the past few years.

From the JoePos file (and apropos of nothing Indians-related), he weighs in on the MVP “debate” and Ken Rosenthal’s assertion that the award shouldn’t just be handed to Joe Mauer…which it should.

Finally, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus took a look at which player in each organization saw their stock rise the most this season:
Cleveland Indians: Some teams wondered if third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall was truly worthy of a first-round selection last year, but he responded to the challenge of a High-A assignment with a .276/.346/.492 line for Kinston before finishing the year at Double-A, and finishing among the organizational leaders with 22 homers and 92 runs driven in.
Runner-Up: The Indians always had high hopes for 21-year-old Venezuelan righty Jeanmar Gomez, and their patience finally began to pay off as he put up a 3.43 ERA at Double-A Akron while flashing two above-average pitchers with his fastball/breaking ball combination.

Speaking of prospects and the future (and, really…isn’t that where we’ve been for a while), if we’re looking for silver linings in this lost season, the recent performance of the parent club has now put them in position to draft 5th in next year’s amateur draft, with the 5th overall picks from 2005 to 2008 being Ryan Braun, Brandon Morrow, Matt Wieters, and Buster Posey, all of whom made their MLB debut less than two years after being drafted.

Is that “silver lining” a reach?
No question, but so is the idea that they won’t be drafting lower than 5th the way they’re playing these days.