scrapple

Eagles Trade for Peters

2009-04-18T08:00:00.004-04:00

eagles trade for one of the top left tackles in the league. needless to say, i'm very happy with this move. on paper, adding this one anchor piece to the line makes this the best o-line they've had heading into a season. they have size, youth, and versatility like i haven't seen in previous o-lines, and two guys who are top 3 at their positions.

my brother and i were talking a couple of months ago and this was the move i was hoping the birds would be able to pull off. i'm ecstatic that they did.

a large portion of the eagles fanbase will be urging the birds to trade for anquan boldin as well. i'm not sure that is such a great idea. first, he's a good wideout, but not a difference making wideout. i don't think you bring a guy like that in and overpay him, it screws up your teams entire pay structure (if you need an example, just take a look at how many bad contracts the sixers have).

i'd gladly give a one and a three for larry fitzgerald, but i wouldn't give a one and a three for boldin. they're not in the same class. if the eagles do go after a receiver, the best one out there is braylon edwards. he's no larry fitzgerald, but he's better than both boldin and roy williams.

Sad Days for Eagles Nation

2009-03-01T13:34:00.003-05:00

i gotta admit, this is hurting worse than i thought it would. i'm usually able to react pretty clinically whenever a favorite player departs -- reggie white, seth joyner, allen iverson, charles barkley, steve carlton, eric lindros (i know i'm in the minority) -- but this has been tough to handle.

some more brian dawkins videos:

Farewell to Brian Dawkins?

2009-02-28T00:29:00.003-05:00

profootballtalk.com is reporting that brian dawkins has signed with denver. brian dawkins is my all-time favorite eagle and it will be odd to see anyone else lining up at safety for the birds.

odder still will be seeing him in a denver uniform at the linc (denver is one of the home opponents this season).

all good things must come to an end, i guess. i enjoyed watching you play mr. dawkins, and it was a pleasure rooting for you. i wish you only good fortune as you move onto your new team!

UPDATE: the inquirer is reporting this morning that the dawkins deal is not done and that he may still be talking to the birds

If Eagles Fans Had Done This...

2009-01-15T12:19:00.004-05:00

it would be a lead story on the national news

here are giants fans smashing up a porsche in the parking lot after seeing their team lose

and when they're finished with that one, they move onto the next car

not the first time, here's how giants fans celebrated the superbowl win earlier this year

ever hear a peep about this crap in the media?

Divisional Playoff Game Thoughts

2009-01-11T19:28:00.005-05:00

what a freaking game today. it was ugly, it was physical, it was wonderful. to go on the road for the second week in a row and take it to the defending champs. phew! what a thoroughly enjoyable run this team is having.

there were many good performances today, but i think the big difference between these two team was QB play. i have no doubt that if you swapped manning and mcnabb, you'd be looking at a giants win right now. mcnabb may not have the physical tools he did when he was younger, but he's playing better than he has in a long time.

today wasn't a very good day for him statistically but he made all the plays the eagles needed to win. he made a number of clutch throws -- especially the stunning 3rd and 20 pass to avant -- but the play that stood out to me was a short pass to kevin curtis for the first down late in the third quarter just after carney missed a 47 yard field goal. the eagles had just gotten the ball back and needed a nice long drive to take some time off the clock. on first down around mid-field, the play call was a quick slant to curtis on right. the giants called for a zone blitz with justin tuck dropping into that passing lane -- the exact right defense for the play. i'm not sure how, but mcnabb saw tuck dropping into that lane and double clutched, waiting for curtis and tuck to run by each other and then threw a dart for a 15 yard catch and run. most QBs throw it right into tuck's belly on that play, heck i've seen don throw it right into a defender's belly in that exact situation before. maybe you can't read too much into a single play, but i'm impressed that he appears to be still growing and learning as a QB.

other thoughts:

- kudos to the coaching staff. they went with a balanced approach in the first half -- lots of running followed up with deep drops looking for a big play -- but the giants were getting way too much pressure on mcnabb and the offense was completely out of sync. the second half was a completely different story -- pass, pass, pass, pass -- but mostly quick drops and underneath routes. halftime adjustments.

- love that we continue to see the QB sneak! how about the difference between a mcnabb sneak and a half-hearted manning sneak?

- the defense played a terrific game today but they sold out to stop the run and there were guys running free in the secondary. thankfully, eli manning was the opposing QB and almost all of those guys were missed badly.

- bunkley and patterson were simply awesome today -- especially on those two stuffs on 4th and short.

- does asante samuel exert some sort of gravitational pull on footballs? asante, my apologies for thinking that the biggest difference between you and lito was your ability to stay healthy/play in pain. you're twice the corner that lito ever was. also, i really enjoyed how you ran the pick back right at eli, even though eli obviously had no desire or intent to get in on the tackle.

- the play mix today was 45 called passes and 23 called runs -- 66% passing

- fox flashed back-to-back stats during the game -- apparently the giants and eagles were ranked first and second this year in points scored during the last 2 minutes of the first half. did everyone see that? how do we reconcile that with the notion that the eagles suck at the 2 minute drill? is it possible that my contention that there are no teams who are "good" at the 2 minute drill is accurate? what causes that disconnect? i'm not sure exactly, but i don't think anyone can complain today, the 2 minute drill at the end of the first half was a thing of beauty.

- footballoutsiders are feeling pretty good about themselves today. the eagles finished at the top of their ratings this year (first time ever for them and first time ever for a wild card team). makes a lot more sense now than at the end of the regular season.

- thank goodness eli manning still stinks. this myth that's been growing about him ever since he happened to be on a team that won a superbowl has been annoying.

- andy opened himself up for a lot of criticism when he continued to pass (and pass downfield) with the lead. lot of guts andy.

- does anyone think that playing on the road has been good for this team? that the pressure of winning in front of the home crowd might have made the birds play a little tighter?

next up, the cardinals. eagles open up as 3.5 point favorites on the road...

E-A-G-L-E-S.... EAGLES!

JC Romero Thoughts

2009-01-07T11:27:00.005-05:00

most of philadelphia is up-in-arms about the "injustice" of jc romero being given a 50 game suspension for "unknowingly" taking banned substances from a supplement he bought at a GNC.

i can certainly understand where people are coming from, because i was thinking the same way until i looked at the product he purchased. some facts, as reported, that would lead you to side with jc are:

- this product wasn't on the banned substances list

- jc asked multiple nutritionists if the ingredients in the supplement were ok to take

- jc asked the trainer if the supplement was ok to take (trainer said he didn't know)

- jc asked the union if it was ok to take (union said it was ok)

based on these widely reported facts, i initially thought that the suspension seemed unfair -- that he never intended to violate the drug policy and that he took the "supplement" in good faith.

then out of curiosity, i googled the product he supposedly took. here is the first google link that came up:

http://anabolicminds.com/store/1347.html

it's not a popular stance, but i'm on record as saying that i think this whole notion of cheating makes no sense to me. if a grown man wants to take something that makes him a better player -- thereby increasing my entertainment -- so be it. (note: i understand the argument that allowing pros to take steroids encourages kids to take it. it's potentially the only valid reason to ban the stuff.)

however, for good or bad, the rules are in place... and it's clear to me that romero's intent was to artificially boost his testosterone levels via these "supplements". so while in his mind, he may not have technically violated the doping restrictions. to me, his intent to circumvent the spirit of the rule is clear.

here is some text from the advertising for the "supplement":

We undertook the due testing to prove to ourselves that this product had the ability to stimulate testosterone levels beyond even the range of upper normal - indeed it stimulates levels well into the supraphysiological range.

i don't know. sounds like steroids to me.

Wild Card Game

2009-01-04T17:40:00.000-05:00

in case anyone is online during the game

Characteristics of Winning Teams (2004-2008)

2009-01-02T17:02:00.005-05:00

following up on the previous post, here are the regressions for team stats over the last five seasons. whereas last time, i listed tried to eliminate duplicates (e.g. attempts and attempts per game) and limit the list to only the variables i thought were important (e.g. i removed 4th down conversions and pcts). this time, i thought it would be best to just post all the data so everyone can make their own assessments.

i've done a little more formatting than i typically do on this minimalist blog due to the increased amount of data.

so just to recap, the following tables display the correlation coefficient between all of the basic team stats from nfl.com over the last five seasons and the number of wins earned by the team that generated those stats.

cells highlighted in yellow represent a correlation coefficient between .5 and .65.

cells highlighted in orange represent a correlation coefficient between .65 and .8.

cells highlighted in red represent a correlation coefficient greater than .8.

not sure exactly what this tells us, but here are some initial observations:

- clearly the strongest correlation for defense is to not get run on. not to "stop the run" necessarily (though obviously forcing 3 and outs would limit the number of rushes against), but the number and percentage of carries against were the strongest relationships on either side of ball.

- against the rush, the aggregate stats (attempts, total yards, number of 1st downs) appear to correlate much stronger than the efficiency stats (avg/YPC, 1st down pct)

- against the pass, the reverse is true as the efficiency stats (avg/YPA, QB rating) show much stronger correlation than the aggregate stats (completions, yards, 1st downs)

- on offense, we see a similar pattern with aggregate stats mattering for rushing (attempts, number of TDs, number of 1st downs) and efficiency stats mattering for passing (QB rating, avg/YPA, 1st down pct)

- i continue to be shocked how little YPC seems to correlate to the win totals of the teams

- turnovers showed a much stronger correlation with the broader data set

here are a couple of scatterplots to show you how recent eagles teams compare against the league over the last five seasons.

first wins vs. point differential for the whole league over the last five seasons. the last five eagles teams are shown as large red points. this is a pretty obvious relationship, but it's interesting to see just how much this year's team has underperformed relative to their overall point differential (point differential has a .917 correlation with wins).

next is one of the stronger offensive stats -- percentage of passes that result in a first down. this had a correlation coefficient of .601.

Characteristics of Winning Teams

2008-12-30T15:09:00.002-05:00

somehow, brian burke and i ended up independently writing about establishing the run on the same day. he looked at whether or not running the ball early/more really does tend to wear down a defense using the premise that if a defense really was wearing down, you'd see yards per carry increase as the number of runs increased -- that the YPC would be higher for the 30th carry than the 1st carry. turns out that conventional football wisdom may be wrong about this as well.

in fact, if you look at his graph, it actually looks like it has a slight downward slope -- that the early runs tend to be more effective than the late runs. though that could be impacted by other factors, e.g. teams that have a 40th carry are probably protecting a big lead forcing the other team to stack the line trying to get the ball back.

so, i wanted to take a look at what team stats correlated strongly with winning this season -- it's been done before, but i may be the first to do it with this year's numbers. here is what i came up with (correlating the following stats for each team with that team's number of wins this season):

Stat	Corr
PF	0.692
PA	-0.784
Net Pts	0.909
TO	0.430

so this basically makes sense, points scored correlates pretty well with the number of wins, but not as strongly as points against (defense wins championships, you know). though neither of them as strongly point differential, validating what we already know -- that you need both offense and defense to win. interestingly, turnover differential isn't that strong of a predictor.

here are some of the individual offensive and defensive stats (from nfl.com)

Category	Stat	Corr	Category	Stat	Corr
TotOff	Yds/G	0.561	TotDef	Yds/G	-0.726
TotOff	Yds/P	0.477	TotDef	Yds/P	-0.682
TotOff	3rd Pct	0.552	TotDef	3rd Pct	-0.480
TotOff	Pen	0.004	TotDef	Pen	0.192
TotOff	Pen Yds	0.029	TotDef	Pen Yds	0.178
TotOff	RunPct	0.373	TotDef	RunPct	-0.715
OffPass	CmpPct	0.488	DefPass	CmpPct	-0.405
OffPass	Att/G	-0.087	DefPass	Att/G	0.426
OffPass	YPA	0.483	DefPass	YPA	-0.689
OffPass	Yds/G	0.297	DefPass	Yds/G	-0.424
OffPass	1st%	0.652	DefPass	1st%	-0.580
OffPass	20+	0.169	DefPass	20+	-0.378
OffPass	Sck	-0.473	DefPass	Sck	0.562
OffPass	QBRate	0.561	DefPass	QBRate	-0.594
OffRush	Att/G	0.547	DefRush	Att/G	-0.775
OffRush	Avg	0.149	DefRush	Avg	-0.532
OffRush	Yds/G	0.484	DefRush	Yds/G	-0.722
OffRush	1st%	0.201	DefRush	1st%	-0.509
OffRush	20+	0.301	DefRush	20+	-0.591

some interesting stuff here. for the 2008 season, there were only five offensive team offensive stats that correlated fairly strongly with wins, they were (in order):

- percent of passes resulting in a first down
- total yards per game
- team QB rating
- third down conversion rate
- number of rushing attempts per game

of course, this doesn't tell us which of these factors are causative and which merely correlate, but here's how i interpret what this is telling us -- winning teams move the ball up and down the field via efficient passing games to score points and then protect them by running the ball.

there were lots of decent to good defensive predictors of success, the top 10 were (in order):

- rushing attempts per game against
- total yards against per game
- rushing yards against per game
- run/pass play mix against (more runs against = fewer wins)
- yards per pass against
- yards per play against
- QB rating against
- big rushing plays against (20+yards)
- percent of passes resulting in first down
- yards per rush against

a lot of these defensive stats overlap, but it's clear that stopping the run correlates strongly with winning. the question is, does stopping the run cause winning or does winning cause other teams to not run? it's not clear cut, but yards per rush against (i.e. defensive success against each running play) is a much weaker correlation than rushing attempts per game and total rushing yardage against which may indicate that that forcing teams to pass is slightly more important than stopping the run.

a few surprising things that conventional wisdom says are important, but don't in fact seem to correlate strongly with wins are:

- number of penalties (for or against)
- penalty yards (for or against)
- offensive rushing yards per carry

Myth of Establishing the Run

2008-12-29T10:26:00.006-05:00

i'm on record as being a fan of the power running game and not a big fan of the worst coast offense, but this ongoing notion of needing to establish the run to win continues to baffle me. i keep hearing every tv and radio talking head pointing to yesterday's win as proof that you have to run to win. i just don't understand why this perception sticks in people's minds or how you can point to yesterday as proof that running leads to winning.

the game was won in the early part of yesterday's game -- game over at 17-3. let's review the eagle drives leading to that point.

drive 1
1 run for 2 yards
4 passes for 27 yards
drive ends on westbrook fumble

drive 2
4 rushes for 29 yards
2 passes for 3 scramble yards
drive ends in FG

drive 3
2 rushes for 8 yards
2 passes for 59 yards
2 QB sneaks
drive ends in TD

drive 4
2 rushes for 8 yards
1 pass resulting in sack
drive ends in punt

drive 5
5 runs for 6 yards
6 passes for 65 yards
drive ends in TD

totals for first five drives
14 called runs leading to 53 yards -- 3.8 yards per play
15 called passes leading to 145 yards -- 9.7 yards per play

i know people are looking at that at the number of called plays and thinking "see that's balance", but the runs were not meaningful in building that 17-3 lead. that lead was built entirely on 2 big plays -- mcnabb scramble and pass to buckhalter and mcnabb floating a ball over tight coverage to desean jackson.

just for sh*ts and giggles, let's compare the playcalling for this game to the first five real drives of the washington game.

drive 1
2 rushes for 2 yards
4 passes for 13 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 2
3 rushes for 16 yards
3 passes for -3 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 3
1 rush for 4 yards
3 passes for 13 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 4
1 rush for 2 yards
2 passes for 7 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 5
not counting since end of first half
2 rushes for 11 yards
drive ends at halftime

drive 6
2 rushes for 10 yards (though the birds also ran an end around called back for holding)
4 passes for 6 net yards
drive ends in fumble

totals for first five real drives
9 rushes for 34 yards (10 called rushes) -- 3.8 yards per play
16 called passes for 36 yards -- 2.25 yards per play

was playcalling mix or establishing the run really a meaningful difference in these two games? doesn't seem like it to me.

yes, the eagles called a few more runs in the dallas game than in the washington game, but the real difference was execution in the passing game. correlation does not necessarily mean causation.

forget what the talking heads are telling you. if the eagles are to win in the playoffs, they must execute consistently in the passing game.

UPDATE: i didn't come up with this notion and my rudimentary analysis above is not intended to prove that passing is more important than running, my intent is only to counter the popular current theme that the eagles won "because the playcalling was more balanced". however, here are some links that cover the topic in more detail:

- usatoday - myth #1
- cnnsi.com - myth #1
- nytimes
- benjamin alamar - passing premium puzzle
- aaron schatz - myth of the run

finally, there is brian burke (i've linked to these before and they're definitely a lot to digest but worth a read). brian covers the topic across three posts finally concluding (correctly i believe) that to think about it as run vs. pass oversimplifies the analysis. we need to determine what each team happens to be good at and determine the proper mix accordingly (similar to my contention that it isn't what kind of play a team calls, only that it is successful).

Game 17 Thoughts

2008-12-28T19:16:00.004-05:00

happy holidays eagles fans!

did anyone out there have hope that the ending to the season would shake out as well as it did? i certainly didn't.

despite the devastating loss to washington last week, despite the maddening inconsistency all season, despite the hideous tie to the bengals, this eagles team is heading in the playoffs playing as well as any team in football... really. to do it in dominating, humiliating fashion while simultaneously knocking the cowboys out of the playoffs, well that's just icing on the cake --

how 'bout them cowboys!

as much complaining as we've done and conclusions as we've (probably prematurely) drawn, the bottom line is that the birds (our birds) are entering the playoffs playing as well as any team in football -- peaking at the right time -- and set to compete against what is overall a pretty weak corps of playoff competitors.

woo hoo!

some thoughts:

- i love the addition of the QB sneak to the offensive repertoire (finally). just the threat of it makes a big difference in how the defense has to game plan in short yardage.

- many thanks go to the oakland raiders for knocking off the jon gruden coached buccaneers. for all of you eagles fans out there hoping to dump big red so we can grab gruden, please try to remember that everything you find frustrating about andy reid's philosophy and offense you'll get double with grudog

- i don't think this game impacts whether mcnabb is back or not -- if the eagles don't win the superbowl, i believe they'll trade mcnabb while his stock is still high -- but i do think it does impact the fate of reid. if they lost today, i think it's possible that banner/lurie would have taken personnel decision-making away from reid (which is what i'm hoping for and will explain when i finally get around to posting part three of where do we go from here). reid's coming back in full force folks, get used to the idea and learn to live with it.

- how good can this defense be? it's small, but as we saw today, if they play with the lead they can be simply devastating.

- i know andy's always talking about being able to "throw fastballs", but this team sure does have a lot of pass rushers. cole, howard, abiamiri, clemons and can all get to the qb pretty quickly. the single biggest reason the giants won the superbowl last season is because of their ability to generate passrush with their line. i'm definitely not suggesting that his crew is even worth comparing to strahan, umenyiora, et al, but they definitely seem to be peaking at the right time.

- samuel seems to be getting some heat, but i don't get it. i think he's playing as well (or better) than any corner i've seen on the birds since i've been watching. his hands may not be as good, but from what i saw this season, he's in better position against receivers when the ball arrives more consistently than eric allen or troy vincent were. the guy is damn good, and the difference between samuel and sheppard is much bigger than i expected coming into the season.

- how good can quinton mikell be? coming into this season, i was very worried about the future of the safety position (post-dawkins), but with mikell playing this well and as much promise as demps has shown, seems like the safety position is stocked pretty well looking forward.

- did dawkins play himself into another contract with his pro-bowl season? i think it's possible, but i doubt it unless he's willing to take a "below market" contract. of all the players that have played for andy reid, i believe dawkins is far and away the best one. however, he's not the player he once was, and while he can still create some chaos when he's in attack mode, the eagles rarely leave him in single coverage anymore. he's not the do-everything superman he once was, and i highly doubt the eagles will give him another big contract. i think the emergence of mikell and the development of demps plays a big factor here as well.

- chris gocong is starting to get it. i've been surprised at how patient jim johnson has been with him (usually by now he'd be calling the guy out in the press ala gaither, darwin walker, trent cole early in his career), but jj must continue to see potential in him and i think we're starting to see why they continue to give him some rope. there have been some plays that gocong has made over the last few games that really made him stand out to me. two examples: 1) i don't recall the game situation, but in the giants game, gocong took on brandon jacobs solo, stopped him dead, picked him up off the ground and spun around threw him about two yards backwards. it sticks in my mind because i rarely see jacobs stopped in his tracks by one guy let alone manhandled the way he was. 2) in the cleveland game, cleveland ran some sort of misdirection off the wildcat formation with their punt returner cribbs taking the snap. the entire defense flowed left, while cribbs ended up going to the defense's right with a wide open field. gocong was lined up on the other side of the field and somehow ran all the way across against the flow of traffic and caught cribbs from behind keeping it to something like a 12 yard gain.

i'm excited as heck for the playoffs and i definitely don't want to put the cart before the horse, but (knocking on wood) the eagles match up pretty well against the other teams in the playoffs.

2005 steelers, 2007 giants, why not us?

Eagles Fans Truly "Legendary"

2008-12-18T21:00:00.004-05:00

eagles fans pelting of santa claus with snowballs in 1968 is such an oft referenced story that it has literally reached urban legend status. snopes.com (urban legend de-bunking site) now has an article providing all of the facts you'd ever want to know about that defining moment for eagles nation.

Philadelphia's nickname may be "The City of Brotherly Love," but sports fans in that metropolis are notorious for a lack of fraternal affection: According to reputation, Philadelphia fans love a winner (who doesn't?) but will mercilessly turn on any players or team that don't live up to expectations, no matter how brilliant their past performances. No single image sums up that reputation more succinctly than the claim (as expressed in the examples cited above) that fans in Philadelphia once booed and pelted with snowballs that most inoffensive, beloved, and benevolent of figures, Santa Claus himself. The claim is true, although the potentially mitigating circumstances under which the incident occurred typically go unmentioned.
at least snopes bothered to give you the whole story instead of a sensationalized soundbite

Game 14 Thoughts

2008-12-16T09:04:00.002-05:00

i walked into last night's game thinking that i wouldn't be satisfied unless the birds won by 20 points... and the birds delivered a 20 point win. and yet i can't help but feel a complete lack of satisfaction about last night's win. maybe my expectations are too high. maybe i'm seeking perfection where it's unreasonable to seek. i can't tell exactly, but the only thing i can really say is that i find this team maddening. simply maddening.

i should probably be smacked for being underwhelmed about a 30-10 victory. really. the eagles covered the 14 point line, and even before you consider style points, 20 point victories are pretty rare in the nfl.

so i should have no basis for being disappointed about a 20 point victory -- the exact margin of victory i was seeking prior to the game -- and yet i am.

why am i disappointed? i can't identify one single factor that's driving this, but here are a few thinking points:

- due to some combination of injuries, lack of talent, poor coaching the browns were clearly not in a league with the birds last night. while the game was never in doubt at any point, the birds never really put them away. there was no kill shot. they built a big lead, but it was workmanlike and took more effort than it should have. the birds could, and more importantly, should have put the brown away in the first half. but didn't.

- donovan mcnabb looked like the best QB in the league last night between the 20s. he was throwing darts into very tight spots last night. as soon as the team crossed the 20, not so much? why does this happen? is it donovan? is it the playcalling? is it the o-line?

brian burke, who runs the advanced nfl stats blog, thinks that differences in QB red zone performance vs. non-redzone performance are random... and if you look, mcnabb underperformed in the red zone in 2007, but his 2008 red zone stats are pretty consistent with other parts of the field.

- the eagles had two turnovers at the goal line. two turnovers at the goal line against the woebegone browns. this is not an insignificant thing. why did the eagles call a fake wildcat pass? it was a completely unnecessary play. sometimes it's like andy can't help himself. most people complain that he is not creative enough. in fact he is too creative! just play football. why take risks when the risks are unnecessary?

- crossing the goal line. what is it with players on this team dumping the ball before crossing the goal line? there needs to be accountability. they wouldn't get away with this crap if belicheat was the coach.

the bottom line is the bottom line, and yes, this was a win, a dominant win even. however, it didn't leave me with a feeling that all is well. possibly the biggest reason why that disappoints me is that there is no great team in the nfl this year. if they could just get their heads on straight, why couldn't this eagles team be the one that gets hot at the right time -- ala 2005 steelers and 2007 giants?

other thoughts:

- what did the replays look like on the westbrook dive at the end of the first half? did the ball cross the plane? why was there no review? it looked like the eagles were expecting the ref to stop the clock for a review that never came.

- the o-line pass protected incredibly well last night. best i've seen all season. i'm sure a lot had to do with the opposition, but if they can protect like that moving forward, this team can go very far.

School Board Shenanigans?

2008-12-03T09:31:00.003-05:00

this isn't about sports, but it's what has been occupying my time and energy recently

let's pretend that there was a school district somewhere that was thinking about taking all of the children who live within a one-mile radius around a school and bussing those children to another school several miles away so that other children could be bussed in to attend in their place. can anyone envision a scenario where this makes logical sense (unless you're one of those people working to displace)? i sure can't.

yet that is exactly what is happening in Lower Merion, where the school board is not only thinking about doing this, they actually proposed a redistricting plan that would essentially take a community of walkers and turn them into bus riders.

“Why would they do this?” you might ask. “What’s the logic behind a move like that?”

“Is it for fairness?” – not really the children involved already face the longest commute times for both elementary and middle school to schools other than the ones to which they are closest

“Is it for environmental reasons?” – i’m not sure, but i suspect converting 200 walkers into bus riders isn’t exactly what I’d call “green”

“Is there a cost savings?” – doubtful as the district will now have to add bus capacity to service those 200 additional riders

“Why would they do it then?”

there are a number of factors involved (political, demographic, wealth), but unfortunately logic and fairness seem to be lacking. the bottom line is that the district decided that adding 10 minutes to the commute of one community (the wealthier one where the children already walk to elementary school and attend their closest middle school) was more burdensome than turning over another community (the less well-to-do one that chooses and values its walking lifestyle and whose children already face the longest commutes for both elementary and middle schools) and forcing them onto a bus.

shame on you, Lower Merion school board. shame on you.

Where Do We Go From Here? part 2

2008-11-21T09:50:00.008-05:00

feedback from part 1:

On the flip side, I don't believe that only "football people" like Andy Reid, John Madden, and Howard Eskin know the real score. I used to believe in experts and insiders when I was really young. Life teaches otherwise. At some point you realize that we're all pretty clueless deep inside.

Is it really that difficult TMG? Really? None of us can postulate logically why this team is underachieving? God bless your eternal optimism, but 5-4-1 ain't good, it's average, which is exactly what type of team they have.

wow, there is a lot packed into these two paragraphs.

Re: "football people" and whether or not we can postulate logically why this team is underachieving.

my statement that we can't truly identify the real problems as outsiders isn't based on our lack of football knowledge or that the football insiders are the only ones who can make a valid assessment. it's more fundamental than that. as outsiders, we don't know what the plan for each play was, so it's simply speculation (or postulation as bumble notes) about what the true nature of the breakdown is. let's take two examples:

- on a play earlier in the year, jason witten catches a pass down the seam for a touchdown with brian dawkins trailing. after watching the play live and on replays, it sure looked to me like dawkins should have been responsible for witten and looked slow and tenative in reacting to witten's route. subsequent interviews by dawkins and JJ indicated that dawkins was covering for a teammate who had blown his assignment. so what was the real breakdown there? was it what we saw as outsiders? was it what was revealed in the interviews? were the interviews intended to shield a once great player on the downside from critcism?

- on a critical third down a few games ago, the eagles faced 3rd and about 9 yards. mcnabb dropped back to pass and threw short to a receiver for a gain of about 7 yards, forcing a punt. whose fault was that? was the play designed to throw short, counting on deeper routes to clear out the middle allowing the receiver to gain the extra yardage after the catch? was the original intended receiver covered forcing donovan to check down? did donovan make a terrible read and throw to the wrong guy? was the play call predicted by the defensive coordinator?

i don't doubt that we can all identify when a team is playing well or when they aren't and i don't doubt that we can objectively or subjectively look at players and evaluate whether or not they can play. i do doubt that we can identify what the real micro problems are regarding things like: playcalling, assignment breakdowns, and game tactics.

what we can evaluate effectively are macro problems: team consistency, in-game strategy, time management, and player development.

ed is right that insiders aren't the only ones who are capable of assessing properly, however, it is often true that insiders are the only ones who possess all the information necessary to make a valid assessment.

Re: believing in experts. i tend to disagree. there definitely are experts in the world who know what they're talking about. what undermines the notion of experts is the fact that some/most people who hold a title or position that would classify them as an expert, aren't truly experts. truly being an expert means you have a combination of training, experience, and critical thinking ability that enables you to accomplish things that most people couldn't even dream of doing -- in the world of sports/medicine, i consider james andrews (the ACL doctor) to be one of those people. most doctors, football coaches, college professors, etc. have training and experience, but most also do not combine it with enough critical thinking ability to be true experts.

Re: 5-4-1. i didn't say that 5-4-1 was good. my statements were -- "5-4-1 is not terrible" and "they are close to being a good team". i think both of those statements are true simply because the football team has a winning record. i'm not disagreeing that the team is playing like sh*t, but doesn't the fact that they're playing like sh*t and they still have a winning record indicate something? you can't have a winning record and have: a terrible coach, a terrible defense, a terrible staff, a terrible QB, a terrible o-line, a terrible d-line, and terrible/injured running backs. something has to be going right. right? i mean take emotion out of it. if you take 5-4-1 at face value, you'd say that's a team in the upper part of the middle of the league. if you add the context that the team is like terribly, you'd probably lay the "underachieving" label on them. so my point is really, that from an objective standpoint (taking my dislike for the worst coast offense and finesse football out of it), that the eagles continue to be close a good football team and the stats indicate a potential upside exists.

with that context in mind, i think i've come to this conclusion about the eagles (and it runs counter to my previous opinion on andy as a drafter, but is in-line with some of the other comments).

it's all the talent. this team simply does not have enough talent across the board and that lays on the head of andy reid the GM... (part 3 coming, i'm breaking this up for time availability reasons, not as an attempt to be dramatic)

BTW - $10 tickets for sixers games in november and december. i'm heading down to tonight's game with my son.

Where Do We Go From Here? part 1

2008-11-19T09:00:00.003-05:00

eagles nation is all riled up. everyone has opinions on what needs to be done to "fix" the problems and make the eagles a contender again, and while that is cathartic, none of us really have any clue what the real problems are. i have my own opinions, but i think a productive start to thinking about next steps is first reviewing the situation -- as always, i'll try to set aside the fact that i hate the worst coast offense and andy reid's finesse approach to football and stick to facts.

the eagles are 5-4-1 and they play in the toughest division in football. while i am horribly disappointed that they got held down and *ssraped by the giants and then threw up another clunker against the horrible bengals, their record right now is not terrible. repeat, 5-4-1 is not terrible. it's terrible only in relation to the expectation that people had coming into this season -- that the eagles would be very good and a likely playoff team.

statistically, the eagles breakdown like this:

- total offense - 6th
- points scored - 6th
- penalties committed - 6th (interesting to note the giants are terrible here... if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin' at work perhaps?)
- penalty yards - 11th
- turnover diff - 14th
- third down pct - 24th

- total defense - 7th
- points against - 8th
- penalties against - 16th
- penalty yards against - 23rd
- third down pct - 4th

- total DVOA - 3rd
- offensive DVOA - 11th
- pass offense - 10th
- rush offense - 19th
- yards per drive - 14th
- points per drive - 7th
- TDs per drive - 10th
- INTs per dirve - 9th
- defensive DVOA - 5th
- pass defense - 9th
- rush defense - 3rd
- yards per drive - 5th
- ST DVOA - 18th
- QB - 7th/7th
- RB - 18th/19th
- WR - 22nd/2nd (baskett)
- TE - 15th/3rd (celek)
- OL - run blocking 21st, pass blocking 8th
- DL - run stuffing 8th, pass rushing 3rd

- nfl efficiency - 1st

ok, so the eagles offense stinks on 3rd down, the wideouts suck, and the o-line can't run block. we knew all those things already, but overall, this is the resume of the pretty good team. (also, before people start latching onto it, 3rd down success rate does not tend to correlate highly year to year. last year, the eagles were top 10 in 3rd down conversion pct).

so what does this tell us? by itself, not much unfortunately. one thing it does show is why the eagles think they're pretty close to being a good team -- it seems that they are. so why does their record continue to lag behind their stats? i have a couple of theories...

Game 10 Thoughts

2008-11-17T14:40:00.004-05:00

aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Ready for End of Andy Reid Era

2008-11-10T14:31:00.000-05:00

is andy reid a bad coach? looking at it objectively, the fact that he has a .620 winning percentage after 9+ seasons seems to indicate no. the fact that many of us consider this 5-4 team a failure also indicates no. expectations are high for big red, and rightfully so -- he's set his own bar pretty high.

he makes some head scratching mistakes and isn't a dynamic thinker, but in order to compile the record he has, he's done more good things than bad. no, the question is not whether andy reid is a good coach or a bad coach -- he is a good coach.

discussing that issue takes the focus away from the real issue --andy reid is fundamentally not a good match for this team or for this fanbase or me. i've written plenty of times about my dislike of the worst coast offense, but it goes even beyond that. this is a finesse team, built with finesse players on both sides of the ball. losing is one thing, getting embarrassingly manhandled several times a season is a completely different beast. i can't stand a team that gets physically overmatched.

why is the team built like it is? why is this big red's philosophy? it almost seems like the andy reid/jim johnson combo is trying to build artificial handicaps for themselves. andy reid is a good evaluator of talent (as we've discussed here, here, here, here, and here), but i'm really starting to think that he believes that size is not a talent.

many sports have weight classes. want to know why? because a good big guy always beats a good little guy. a good big guy probably beats a great little guy. in order for the little guy to win, he has to be much better than the big guy. it's a fact of life. why then do the eagles insist on building a middleweight team to compete for the heavyweight title?

i touched on it a bit in my game 9 thoughts, but here are some comparisons:

Position	Eagles	Giants	Redskins	Cowboys
RB	5-10 / 203	6-4 / 264	5-11 / 223	6-0 / 221
WR	6-0 / 186	6-5 / 232	5-10 / 200	6-3 / 218
WR	5-10 / 175	6-3 / 203	5-10 / 190	6-3 / 220
TE	6-3 / 258	6-6 / 253	6-3 / 249	6-5 / 266
DE	6-3 / 270	6-5 / 274	6-4 / 252	6-7 / 299
DE	6-2 / 250	6-5 / 265	6-4 / 266	6-4 / 305
DT	6-0 / 292	6-4 / 306	6-4 / 320	6-3 / 300
DT	6-2 / 306	6-4 / 317	6-3 / 311	6-4 / 298
S	6-0 / 210	6-1 / 215	6-2 / 213	6-2 / 206
S	5-10 / 203	6-2 / 210	6-0 / 200	6-5 / 208

these are taken from each team's official website. i've listed some of the positions that stick out to me, i'm not omitting positions that run counter to my point, just trying to keep the list manageable.

the eagles field the smallest player at their position almost across the board -- and several of the eagles players are overstated. i know this is very common in professional sports, but the eagles have more reason to do it than others because they field midgets all over the field. goodness knows i enjoy watching midgets as much as the next guy, but not on my professional football team! i've highlighted in red the positions where guys are listed bigger than they appear or have mysteriously grown an inch or two in their 20s and 30s.

i know that the eagles believe that speed wins games, but why can't they get full sized fast guys? seriously, did the giants look any slower than the eagles last night? (though who could tell because our guys were on their backs all game).

i'm ready for the end of the andy reid football era not because he is a bad coach, but because his philosophy and style are making me start to lose interest in professional football. with andy reid, winning is the only enjoyment you get out of watching a game. by design, the fans get nothing else.

andy doesn't let you in on what he's thinking. andy doesn't address reasons why things are happening. andy chooses to play the infernal worst coast offense. andy chooses to field a team giving up inches and pounds at almost every position on the field.

those are all his choices and are his choices to make. however, he has to lie in the bed that he makes. if he's going to choose to build a boring team and display a boring public persona, he must understand that winning and losing will be the only criteria. you can get away with some extra losses if you are entertaining. by design, andy's teams cannot.

i'm not ready to watch another rebuilding effort -- and that is where we are headed with the eagles loading up for the kevin kolb era -- led by andy reid. i can't take it anymore.

his teams lack size and physicality on both sides of the ball -- even his superbowl team was a finesse team. his offense bores me to death. i'm ready to move on -- and remember, this is coming from a fan who is constantly accused of being a reid apologist. i'm ready to move on.

Game 9 Thoughts

2008-11-10T09:26:00.004-05:00

we need to discuss coaching and the andy reid era in general, but i'll separate that into its own post.

this one will be solely devoted to the horrible slow death we watched again last night. redskins, giants, pretty much any power running team. the only reason the eagles managed to stay in that game is because of mcnabb. his final numbers weren't terrific, completing less than 50% of his passes, but those were also skewed (once again, sigh) by the number of hideous drops. mcnabb made plays to try to win this game and almost no one else on the team did. if you swapped the QBs, this would have been a blowout win for the giants. mcnabb in his prime with a real running game would have been scary.

- what the fudge jj? against dallas, you leave brian dawkins in single coverage against me-o at the goal line. slant -> TD. last night, you leave dawk in single coverage against burress. slant -> TD.

- bunkley was getting pushed around again last night, but he definitely gave it all he had. i saw pretty consistent effort from him. unfortunately, he's our "big" defensive tackle where on most teams, he'd be the small, quick guy.

- brian westbrook is a spectacular player, but not a great one. great running backs get you consistent yards, especially after first contact. westbrook has gotten bigger and stronger, but he does not gain significant yardage after first contact. since you can stand him up and stop him in his tracks once you get one hand on him, he's not suited to being an every down back. what is leroy hoard doing these days?

- trent cole was literally picked up and thrown to the ground on the third and long play where the eagles forced the first giants punt of the night. literally picked up and thrown to the ground. not by a double team. by one guy. not just knocked off his feet. picked 12-18 inches off the ground and thrown down on his side.

- their starting wideouts are 6-5 and 6-3. our starting wideouts are 5-9 and 5-11. that's not why we lost, but does anyone see a running theme here?

- chris gocong has physical tools, but is still too tentative and doesn't play "downhill". he runs into tackles rather than running through tackles. by now he should be getting more comfortable in this defense. where is the high motor guy we saw in his college films? high motor defensive end becomes tenative linebacker, not a surprise. the giants moved kiwanuka back to d-line as an injury replacement, but also because he sucked as a linebacker.

- this isn't why they lost the game, but in a key sequence of plays. the manning over the los pass was overturned (for people who saw this on TV, was there really indisputable evidence he was behind the line?) , demps was facemasked on the ensuing kickoff but didn't get the call, and jacobs wasn't facemasked on the next possession but that was called.

- anyone else notice that cole hamels came out wearing an aj feeley jersey? burrell came out wearing 5, which makes sense, but hamels chooses 14 over 36 or 20? great pitcher, odd guy.

Game 8 Thoughts

2008-10-31T10:32:00.000-04:00

a slow start to the game, which wasn't a complete surprise considering next week's measuring stick game against the division leading giants. it took a while for the team to get in sync, but once they did, the game was never in doubt.

- mcnabb's day in a nutshell -- terrible start, hot middle, conservative end. he's streaky, we all know that, but westbrook or no westbrook, if mcnabb isn't on, the offense goes 3 and out. he ended the day 28/43 for 349 with 2 TDs and 1 INT, which isn't shabby at all, but it definitely could have been better. still, if there is such a thing, i'd rather have him save his A game for the hated giants.

- dawkins looked old and awkward trying to tackle koren robinson, but ended up with a solid game overall, breaking up a couple of passes and making some hits. he can still make plays when he gets there in time.

- middle of o-line still getting stuffed on short yardage

- i don't want to kick him while he's down after taking one for the team, but brent celek made a number of catches yesterday that lj probably would not have made. in addition, celek protects the ball better, so i didn't get the usual lj smith agita when celek turned around ran downfield. i don't know how good he's going to get, but honestly, he is already better than littlejohn ever was.

H-U-G-E game looming against the giants folks. the birds opened up as a 3 point favorite but it seems like people are already betting the giants. the line hasn't moved, but the eagles -3 is listing at +105 on sportsbook.com. mid-season home game. put up or shut up time birds!

Various Thoughts on Phillies

2008-10-30T11:38:00.003-04:00

don't have a lot of time today, so i'll just throw out some things kicking around in my head

- charlie manuel -- i think his ability to bench rollins (reigning league MVP) without tearing apart the team or losing rollins was a significant contribution to this championship. the day he pulled that move off, he won me over as a fan forever. how many other managers could have pulled that off? bobby cox? maybe torre? certainly not bowa or leyland. in addition, virtually every button he pushed in the playoffs was the right one. it was uncanny.

- pat gillick -- i took some heat last season when i mentioned that gillick is one of the biggest reasons why i got my love of baseball back (that he had turned a sour and grumpy team into a team that genuinely enjoyed each other and the game), and i stand by that. he may not have made a ton of big ticket moves during his time here, but boy did he fill the roster with guys who got the job done.

- head wade -- head is going to get some credit for the nucleus of this team, but there is no chance that the phillies would have one a series if head was still the GM. first of all, head wouldn't have been in houston to give away brad lidge for nothing. second, there is no way that head would have given away bobby abreu for nothing (which i still maintain was critical to changing the team personality). third, head could never have assembled this pitching staff, and pitching is the biggest reason why the phillies won this title.

- jamie moyer -- instrumental to helping cole reach his potential. another move head would likely not have made.

- cole hamels -- did cole mention that his wife just turned 30? cole is what, 24? is there a story there? was she his babysitter as a kid or something?

- jimmy rollins -- thank you to whoever got jimmy to stop swinging for the fences every at bat. big difference between falling off balance and over home plate after every swing and his balanced line drive swing.

- this core is young enough that they should be contenders for 4-5 more seasons!

- hopefully this opens the floodgates and some of the other teams start winning. the 1980 phillies were part of the golden age of philadelphia sports. dare we hope for the start of another golden age? am i being greedy?

- the heads up play by chase utley should go down as one of the greatest postseason defensive plays ever

wow. i can't stop smiling.

At Last Our Long Regional Nightmare is Over!

2008-10-30T09:41:00.002-04:00

philadelphia phillies -- 2008 world series champions

feels pretty good to say.

Pinch Me

2008-10-26T23:48:00.001-04:00

up 3 games to 1 with hamels coming up? is this really happening?

Jamie Moyer!

2008-10-26T02:00:00.002-04:00

the combination of a clutch start by jamie moyer and some really good fortune (perfect umpire assignment and a miraculous fly-out that was a home run off the bat) has the phillies leading two games to one in the world series. wow!

how is it possible that they're leading this series when the team is 1 for 953 with runners in scoring position with the 1 being an infield single that didn't actually score a run? that has to be a good sign, right? it can't continue forever.

ryan howard finally starting to look like he's getting his timing back.

jimmy rollins finally starting to take good swings and no longer taking huge off-balance hacks.

carlos ruiz staking an early claim for world series mvp.

keeping my fingers crossed, but things are looking ok so far. i mean, the phillies haven't even played well yet.

i'm not even that upset by the bad call on the crawford bunt because i feel like it only evened out the fact that the rays didn't score two on the longoria non-homer. how the heck did that ball not go out of the park?

three am and i'm too wired to sleep... go phillies!

World Series!

2008-10-22T15:46:00.003-04:00

huge game tonight. if the phillies are to win this series, i believe hamels must win tonight's game. it feels odd to say that considering it's only the first game of the series, but the nights that hamels pitches will be the only games of the series where the phillies have the better starter on the mound. (you could argue that myers is more talented than shields, but he certainly hasn't pitched better than shields).

i think the phillies definitely have a shot at this, but they have to get off to a good start tonight.

go phillies!