The Auto Prophet

The End Of Saab?

2009-11-24T22:53:00.003-05:00

Bad news for Saab fans today. Koenigsegg, like Penske with Saturn, backed out of the deal, leaving GM with another brand it doesn't want.

Perhaps Geely will look at it, since it is rumored that they are leading the bidders for Volvo.

A great place to go for Saab discussion is Saabs United, the home of Steve Wade, the definitive Saab Blogger, who formerly blogged at Trollhattan Saab. Swade thinks GM will probably try to sell to another buyer, because they have a lot invested in Saab, and can use the cash.

The dismantling of GM sure is ugly.

How To Convert .WTV Files (For Free)

2009-11-22T02:40:00.002-05:00

Windows 7 Media Center records TV shows into a file format called ".WTV".

I found that you can convert these to .WMV format using the free Windows Movie Maker Live from Microsoft. Then, it can be played on many other devices.

Google Chrome's Secret Plan

2009-11-20T12:43:00.001-05:00

Google is making news this week unveiling a prototype of its new OS, which is basically a stripped down Linux based wrapper for their Chrome browser. As part of the Q&A, Google stated that other browsers (such as Opera or Firefox) won't run on Chrome OS.

One of the reasons the Google is developing Chrome and the Chrome OS isn't widely discussed, but I think it is fairly obvious.

Google makes it's money from advertising. You can't get an ad blocker for Chrome. And you won't be able to run Firefox on Chrome OS. What Google is doing is ensuring that people will have to see advertising, by luring us in with slick, lean, and fast applications.

Buick Manual? NFW!

2009-11-20T12:35:00.001-05:00

Amazing news. Buick may start selling a Regal in the U.S. with a manual transmission. I'm blown away.

This is definitive proof that GM is serious about shifting Buick's image, which it badly needs to do. Currently, Buick="old".

Nothing says "young" like 3 pedals on the floor.

Aptera Death Watch?

2009-11-19T10:26:00.001-05:00

Should we start an Aptera Death Watch, TTAC style?

Not yet, but maybe soon.

Aptera's difficulties in getting financing, which is very much like Tesla and Fisker's struggles to stay alive, underscores the point that making vehicles is a very tricky business. It is capital intensive, requires high efforts, and demands a very high quality product. The car buying public will not accept a vehicle that is not reliable, day in and day out, for over 100,000 miles. If you design and build something that is just a little off, you get hammered.

The venture capitalists of the world know this. They look at the financial history books and see numerous companies which tried to start up to build a better car, and then faded out. Tucker, Bricklin, DeLorean, and so on.

Building a car isn't like building an iPod (not to minimize the excellent engineering behind the iPod). You can't just jump in with fresh ideas and be successful.

Republicans Hate GM, Democrats Heart Toyota

2009-11-17T10:57:00.001-05:00

Jalopnik asks, "Why Do Republicans Hate American Automakers?", and talks about how some Republican pols are badmouthing GM and Chrysler, including recent presidential election loser John McCain.

Anecdotally, however, I can tell you that many Republicans are solidly "buy American" types, from a variety of different backgrounds. There are rural farmers and hunters who love their full size American trucks. There are patriotic war veterans who won't drive any "Jap" cars. And, believe it or not, there are even Republicans who are pro-UAW (though a minority, for sure).

I have personally noticed that there are lots of liberals who drive non-UAW assembled vehicles with pride. Many times I have noticed a car (in metro Detroit, no less!) sporting stickers such as "Obama", "End This War", etc., and as often as not, this car is a Toyota or Honda. It seems the liberals don't necessarily love the American auto makers either, at least not when it comes down to choosing a car to own.

When was the last time you saw an NRA sticker on a Prius?

Housekeeping

2009-11-16T13:10:00.001-05:00

Google Ads are now gone. They were cluttering up my blog, and though they were paying a little, it wasn't a significant amount. Enjoy.

GM's Repayment Plan

2009-11-16T12:25:00.003-05:00

In today's news, GM is going to begin repaying its government loan.

Sort of.

Most of GM's government debt, which came from the TARP, was converted to ownership in the New GM. So the government loans that GM is going to start repaying are only $6.7 Billion out of about $50 Billion it received in total.

GM is sitting on a cash pile of $42.6 Billion, according to the news story. That cash is essentially all bailout money, as GM is not yet generating net profit. So GM is going to use bailout money to pay off a bailout loan. Then, when the New GM sells stock, we the taxpayers will hopefully gain back some of the rest.

Hope. The watchword of the Obama administration.

Don't Boycott GM

2009-11-15T23:33:00.000-05:00

I have talked to a few people, and read many more on web forums, who will not buy any GM or Chrysler products because they took a government bailout. Some of these folks also want to stick it to the UAW, who they see as the reason for GM and Chrysler's destruction.

This attitude is self defeating.

The taxpayer money has been spent, and the best (and only) way to recover it is for GM and Chrysler to be successful. A profitable GM will be able to service its outstanding TARP loans, and provide a stock value which will repay the government. Refusing to buy GM cars, while emotionally satisfying, only works against GM's success, and the repayment of the taxpayer loans.

As for the UAW, it is true they fought hard and were successful in the past at winning extremely generous benefits for their employees. But it was the automaker's management which was a negotiating partner, and didn't have the fortitude to keep things more reasonable, even if it meant strikes and nasty public relations. The UAW was doing it's job, fighting for its members. Expecting otherwise is like expecting the wolf to go easy on the sheep.

But with the collapse of the domestic business, and bankruptcy of 2 of the 3 UAW automakers, the UAW woke up in a hurry. The UAW leadership, under Ron Gettlefinger, pushed hard on the rank and file to agree to multiple rounds of contract renegotiations.

If the Detroit 3 can't survive going forward, it is not because the UAW workers are being overpaid. From here on out, "it's the product, stupid".

Mini Review: Dell Vostro 1520 Laptop

2009-11-10T22:03:00.006-05:00

I ordered a Dell Vostro 1520 from Dell Small Business. It was a screaming deal, $499 after a $50 coupon, stackable with their promotion.

Unfortunately, I hated the laptop, and returned it after two days.

The screen was nice. The processor fast. Windows 7 was great. The problem was, the keyboard was just awful. It had a lot of flex, and my fingers seemed to bounce off of it when I typed. On top of that, the keys rattled when you typed, with a high pitched sound, it drove me nuts.

Now I need to figure out if I want to try a Latitude (more money) or a Studio. Anybody have any advice for me? Who makes a laptop which is reasonably priced and has a solid keyboard?

Ford's New Inflatable Seat Belt

2009-11-05T14:45:00.002-05:00

Update: Wes Sherwood of Ford Safety PR has left answers to my questions in the first comment. Thanks Wes!

Ford unveiled a new inflatable rear seatbelt design today. (There's a neat video here.)

This looks like a pretty good idea, but I do have some questions. If any Ford safety or PR people are reading, please chime in.

What happens if you use one of these belts to anchor an infant seat, using the belt instead of LATCH anchors? Will the expanding baloon damage the infant seat?
Why not use these on the front, too? Seems like front passengers could benefit as well.
Will they trigger in a minor accident? Can they be repaired, or will they be expensive to replace, like airbags?
Will accessories such as seatbelt positioners, or fuzzy seat belt covers defeat or interfere with the balloon?

Open Question To Chrysler/Fiat

2009-11-05T14:22:00.001-05:00

A question for Chrysler: why are you going to keep building the Jeep "Pavement" Compass? How does this product advance your brand? You can barely sell any of them (8,498 YTD). The only Jeep model which sells fewer is the bloated Pavement Commander.

Don't replace it with a Fiat in 2012. Kill it now. Nuke it from orbit. It's not a Jeep. It's not even close.

Exotic Car Sighting

2009-11-01T21:55:00.003-05:00

This evening, MI northern 'burbs. Can you name it? (sorry, a little blurry, I don't often shoot photos in my car)

Will GM Pay Us Back?

2009-10-30T11:05:00.001-05:00

This is a big question these days, and many observers say "no". According to Rasmussen, most Americans don't expect GM to be able to pay back the loans. I think the taxpayer is basically screwed here. Even if there is a successful IPO, there is no way that the new GM will be worth as much in stock as the Old GM at its peak.

What could a valuation of the New GM be? According to Dartmouth's Anant Sundaram, the government share could about $26 billion. You can see his analysis here.

So if there is an IPO, and the government gets $26 billion for GM, the U.S. Government will get a return of about 0.60 on the dollar ($50.7B loaned, $8.8B remains as debt, so $42.7B put in as equity)

Mosler For Pres? Heh.

2009-10-30T08:22:00.001-05:00

Warren Mosler, hedge fund manager and supercar builder, may be running for President. One of Mosler's proposals is a national 30mph speed limit, to save fuel and reduce accidents. Yes, that's 30mph. Read it here.

Good luck with that.

Gettelfinger On Marchionne

2009-10-27T07:31:00.001-05:00

This morning on Paul W. Smith's morning talk show (AM760), Ron Gettelfinger was a guest. Paul W. tried to extract comments from Gettelfinger about Fiat's leaked plans to kill off some badly noncompetitive Chrysler and Dodge products, and the risk that this plan may hold for UAW employment. Gettelfinger, as carefully spoken as ever, did not take the bait, and openly praised Sergio Marchionne instead. Approximately:

"We have a close working relationship with Sergio Marchionne. He has his arms around the car industry. He understands what the buying public wants."

Gettelfinger then went on to say, as he often does, that he won't comment on "rumors and speculation". "The newspapers, they want to sell their product. And you know how they have been doing lately".

Besides a resistance to attack Fiat based on an unpublished plan, Gettelfinger's response may indicate that there is less danger to UAW interests in Fiat's plan than the media is inferring. For example, perhaps Fiat plans to build more Fiat/Alfa cars here using UAW labor, and that the plants will be re-tooled rather than shut down.

Paper: LEDs Not As Cool As You Think

2009-10-26T13:52:00.001-05:00

According to a paper published in an IEEE journal, LED lamps can run hotter than equivalent fluorescent lamps. Where florescents may dissipate 73-77% of their output as heat, the LEDs tested wasted 87-90% of their output! Source here.

LED lighting has a long way to go.

Car Buying Advice

2009-10-26T12:43:00.001-05:00

A friend of mine is working on a purchase of a new vehicle. She called me in terror the other day and said "they told me I should get paint protection, and rust proofing, and an extended warranty, and I wasn't sure so I said 'ok' let me think about it". I told her to call the salesman back and cancel all of it.

You don't need rust proofing. Cars today are designed to survive 150,000 miles or more, including salty road winters. Just make sure to wash your undercarriage once in a while, you'll be fine.
You don't need paint sealant. The car is clearcoated at the factory. If you park it outside a lot, put on some Rain-X or Turtle wax, that will do the trick.
You don't need an extended warranty. Today's cars are as reliable as ever. These are really just insurance policies, which means that mathematically, you will on average save money by self insuring. That's because the cost of the policy is the average pay-out per customer + profit margin.
You don't need a pre-paid service contract. Your car won't need much more than oil and tire rotations for the first 30,000 miles, and after that, you should be taking it to your neighborhood service shop (I like my local Midas,myself, and Firestone has been good to me also). Dealer service rates are substantially higher, on average, than independent shops.

The one item I told her to consider, if it would maker he sleep better, was the road hazard warranty,which is insurance against wheel damage. At $350, it was cheap compared to the price of a new wheel/tire, and Michigan's pothole roads are wheel destroyers. I myself have trashed 2 wheels in the last 3 years.

Tell the dealer to keep the locking wheel nuts, the scotch guard, and everything else that didn't come from the factory (unless you like overpaying). Learn the phrase, "No thanks, I want just the car".

Video: OnStar Calls Hennessey

2009-10-24T22:53:00.002-05:00

Tuner Hennessey Performance was testing a 700HP Cadillac CTS-V, and after pulling 0.99g, got a call from OnStar. "Vehicle Event Detected, Connecting To OnStar Emergency"

Internet COTY Voting

2009-10-22T08:35:00.001-05:00

The "Internet Car Of The Year" awards are open for the final voting, here.

My picks:

Car: Camaro SS. The return of a muscle car icon, with sharp styling (though poor rear visibility) and vicious performance. Yes, the Taurus SHO is good, but it is a $40,000 Taurus. The Shelby is also a wicked muscle car, and faster than the SS, but also quite a bit more expensive. Bang for the buck, Camaro is the winner.

Truck: Ford Raptor. One. Bad. Ass. Truck. The Chevrolet Equinox is a well executed product, but it doesn't inspire lust. Same goes for the Audi. If you drive on of these two down Woodward Ave, no one will notice. Drive a Raptor, and little kids will point and jump up and down.

Will GDI kill HEV?

2009-10-19T14:56:00.001-05:00

As things currently stand, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles ("HEV" as opposed ot plug-in hybrid vehicles, or "PHEV") cost approximately $3,000 more than an similarly equipped gasoline vehicle, although the actual hardware cost may actually be more.

However, a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine, with turbocharging, such as GM's Ecotec (Chevrolet Cobalt SS) or Ford's Ecoboost (Taurus SHO) costs only about $750 more than its naturally aspirated counterpart.

When you down-size from a power equivalent naturally aspirated engine, you gain about 20% in fuel economy by going to turbo direct injection. The hybrid fuel economy improvement is typically around 40-50% EPA combined.

As GDI type engines become more common, consumers will have to choose between a system that offers half of the fuel economy benefit for one quarter the cost. If gasoline continues to be affordable (say, sub-$4.00), and Congress doesn't enact large tax incentives for HEVs, I don't see large scale adoption of HEVs until their costs come down dramatically.

I know that I, for one, would choose GDI over HEV in the current market. GDI doesn't force you to sacrifice cargo space because of batteries, and doesn't make the car heavier. It doesn't give you the strange feel of regenerative braking. And it gives you lots of fun-to-drive torque very quickly.

GM Marketing Backfire?

2009-10-14T15:40:00.001-05:00

So after a few weeks of voting, GM's TheBestCarWins.com web site has the following results:

Fuel Efficiency: Toyota (Prius, not Land Cruiser)
Safety: Volvo
Quality: Toyota (sans zip ties)
Performance; BMW
The Best: BMW

So what was the point? Everyone can see that GM's brands aren't the winners. What did GM gain?

May The Best (Golf) Car Win

2009-10-14T15:27:00.001-05:00

Oops.

If you type in "May The Best Car Win", you might wind up here. Not GM.

No Zip Ties For Buick

2009-10-14T15:13:00.001-05:00

From Fritz Henderson's recent web chat:

15:24

[Comment From Ray Wert ]
Will Buick seek to add white, plastic floor mat zip-ties in a bid to look more like Lexus?

15:24

Fritz Henderson: not going to get into this.

Heh.

Viper's iPhone Remote Start System

2009-10-13T09:01:00.002-05:00

Viper (maker of car alarms and remote starters) sent me a PR kit for a new system which will allow you to remote start your car with your Apple iphone.

It looks neat, because you can start your car even if it isn't within direct line-of-sight; the system communicates between the iphone and the car over the cellular network.

However, there are a couple of things I wonder about. First, the cost: after the first year, it costs $30/year for service. Is that worth it? Not to me, when I can have a service-fee free line-of-sight remote starter.

Secondly, I wonder about the safety implications of being able to remote start your car without being near it. All remote starters have a cut-off timer which kills the engine if you don't come and open the car within a certain amount of time, typically about 10 minutes. But without being able to see your car, you have no idea if there is some unsafe situation where you wouldn't want to be starting a car.