-THE CUNNING REALIST-

One Hell Of A Gamble

2008-08-21T00:03:00.007-04:00

I've watched the Bush presidency very closely. I've watched McCain closely for the last decade or so. And I either know or know a decent amount about a lot of the people advising him on foreign policy. And in terms of the physical safety and future of my wife and two sons, let alone the country, I would much prefer four more years of the Bush presidency to a McCain presidency.

A few weeks ago I wrote:

If that sort of psychological trauma explains our great national shrug, it has important implications -- not only for where one might want to live, work, own property, raise kids, and certainly invest money and keep savings, but for where it's safe to do so.

So obviously I agree with Josh, especially as a fellow New Yorker. I don't think this space is known for hyperbole or hysteria, so I'll put this as tactfully as possible: if McCain wins, the uneasiness quotient associated with living in or near high value targets like major cities should rise considerably. And I'm not referring to threats from dirty bombs or planes flying into buildings. You know, October 1962 is getting to be a long time ago. How many of our current political and military leaders remember it? How about the public? Or the freshly-minted, self-styled "geopolitical experts" and the ruddy-cheeked warblogger set? In the fall of '62, would the latter have been cranking out chest-beating missives in downtown DC or leafy Beltway suburbs? Or would they have long since beat a hasty retreat to undisclosed locations and mountain redoubts, of course after first making sure their own personal hideaways were well outside any potential blast radius or fallout cloud path?

During the presidential campaign in 1980, I was in junior high school. I have vivid memories of a Social Studies class in which we debated whether or not Ronald Reagan was a "warmonger." That was one of the major issues of that election. I've tried to balance my concern about McCain's recent posture with that perspective, but I don't think there's much of a comparison. At this point McCain seems more like Nixon during his dark days, when aides were so worried about his unpredictability that they chose not to wake him one night during an apparent Soviet provocation.

All the warning signs on McCain are there, easy to see. How many voters remember crouching under their desks during grade school duck-and-cover drills is another matter.

The Next Treasury Secretary?

2008-08-19T10:41:00.008-04:00

Sen. Phil Gramm: "If this is the bust, the boom was sure as hell worth it. You agree with that, right?"

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan: "Certainly."

-Congressional hearing, July 2001

Mickey Mouse Economics

2008-08-18T01:48:00.002-04:00

A McCain economic advisor visits Disneyland and says we can't be in a recession because, hey, the line to get into the haunted mansion was really, really long! One wonders if that sort of rigorous analysis led to this screamfest a few years back. A more recent look at this guy's record is here.

The New Pharaohs

2008-08-15T00:02:00.006-04:00

An Egyptian national here in New York passes on some chatter from home. Apparently Cairo is buzzing about a wave of Iraqis snapping up property at some of the city's tonier addresses and in the nicest suburbs. Strangely, the new arrivals often have two things in common: suitcases full of crisp dollars, and employment experience with U.S.-funded "reconstruction projects" in their home country.

Hopefully not a scene to be repeated in places like Baku and Yerevan in coming years...

Bring Pantyhose

2008-08-13T02:53:00.009-04:00

Time to get intimately familiar with everyday life in our latest vital national interest. A few excerpts from some ground-level reports, both good and bad.

Corporate expat in Tbilisi, 12/07:

Pollution index: Unhealthy: Pollution in winter months hangs around, and the wind in spring brings lost of dust and pollen.

Is it a good city for gay or lesbian expats? A definite no-no.

Are there problems with racial, religious or gender prejudices? Yes. The Othodox Church here is prejudiced against any other form of Christianity. Although attacks have been carried out on other Christians in the past, this does not happen at the moment. However, it would be wise to be discreet, especially if you are a missionary. Several of my friends find the Georgians to be xenophobic. They are definitely proud of their country.

What difficulties would someone with physical disabilities have living in this city? It is even difficult for able- bodied people. You need to hold your kids' hands when walking along/crossing streets. You'll encounter crazy drivers and open man-holes.

What fast food and decent restaurants are available? Cost? If you like junk or are not particular—i.e., local heavy food, pizzas, bland steaks covered with cheese, etc.—there are loads of restaurants. However, if you like good quality food, eat at home.

What type of automobile is suitable to bring (or not to bring) because of rugged terrain, lack of parts and service, local restrictions, carjackings, etc? So if you have an accident (which is very likely if you drive a lot here, because Georgians drive fast, don't respect traffic rules and mostly don't have decent tires or brakes) it is your fault. If you have an accident, you are not to move your car (even if no one is hurt and you are holding up the whole of Tblisi traffic) until the police come. But what the heck, it will still be your fault. And the Georgian will never be insured. So get yourself and the car insured, too.

Are local trains, buses, and taxis safe? Affordable? Taxis and buses are not safe because of dangerous driving. Taxis are not so affordable if they see you are a foreigner (as with most things here…it is very frustrating – you are good to pay…). Expect to break down or be very delayed on long distance buses/ vans. Of course, pickpocketing is rife.

Size of expat community: Not big enough, in a country like this, to be vibrant.

Morale among expats: Many arrive high. It doesn't last though – unless the other option was worse.

Are there decent job opportunities for expats on the local economy? If you are well qualified, you might get a job with one of the foreign aid agencies. Otherwise, don't waste your time looking. Even if you want to do charity work or personal charity work, it can be a bit depressing. It is the first country I have been to where, even if you give to the max, people have a way of making you fee guilty not to have done more.

Any health concerns? What is the quality of medical care available? Stay well. Don't come if you know you need medical attention or if you have a problem that might get worse. Medical care is Soviet style – all façade if you have money and scary if you don't. IN the last three years, five of my colleagues' family members have been misdiagnosed for serious things by the most well-equipped clinics.

Can you save money? Depends on whether you want to want to have all the quality comforts of home or go without them. In any case, although some Georgians will welcome you into their homes, most consider that you are the ideal ATM.

Knowing what you now know, would you still go there? Make that a no, definitely no. I did not know that the schools were so bad. Nor did I know that, as soon as you start talking money, it's always up to you to pay, since you are the foreigner. Nor that you get ripped of with such high rents. That there is always a problem with something. And it gets on my nerves that these people are so lazy. Ministries, local schools, and shops open at 10:00 a.m. What country in the world can afford to do that? Certainly not Georgia.

Any other comments: In my opinion, most people who say they like it here:
- have only been here for one year or less
- are Georgians or are married to a Georgian
- are single men without a life elsewhere
- are families who are better off here than back at home
- are people who only live life in their own expat ghetto
- are those who don't have the guts to admit that they were wrong to come, or
- are people with a purpose to help Georgians, i.e., missionaries.

Expat teacher in Tbilisi, 12/07:

Is it a good city for gay/lesbian expats? If you are a discreet lesbian, then yes. An openly gay man would have trouble.

Do you drive on the right hand side of the road or the left? Hah Hah Hah. You drive on whatever side the road some psycho is not currently bearing down on. Expect to shift lanes often, owing to drunkards and cows.

Items you would ship if you could do it again? Movies and pantyhose. Pantyhose are outrageously expensive.

Morale among expats: I can only speak for myself. I had a wonderful time. Don't expect a Western life, and meet the locals. Embassy morale is famously low, with lots of curtailments and unhappy people. Everyone else seems to enjoy it here.

Are there decent job opportunities for expats on the local economy? A lot of low-pay teaching jobs. Don't work at the embassy if you want to stay sane. It's a very toxic place.

Any health concerns? What is the quality of medical care available? Dentistry is superior and affordable if you know where to go. Medical care is known to be atrocious.

Quality pet care available? Adequate. This is the land of feral animals, so pet sentimentality is regarded as bizarre.

Knowing what you now know, would you still go there? In a heartbeat. Lovely people, beautiful country, quite a mess, but a fascinating mess.

Post report, U.S. Embassy, 2/07:

Is this a good city for families/singles/couples? This is not a good place for singles. There are too few good venues for nighttime entertainment, and those few close down for the summer months during vacation season. Single women are not at all happy here, but a few persistant single men find it tolerable, yet lacking.

Is it a good city for gay/lesbian expats? I would not think so, due to the conservative Orthodox culture in Tbilisi.

Are local trains, buses, and taxis safe? Affordable? No, no, and somtimes. The Red Cab service is generally considered the safest cab service. Taxis are the source of many sexual assualts against Western women, and trains/mini-buses are the sources of many robberies and pickpockets. Stay away from public transportation if at all possible. Drive your own car or hire a trusted driver.

Interesting/fun things to do: Visiting historic churches, wine tasting, and tourism in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

What comments can you make about using credit cards and ATMs? I would not do it if not absolutely necessary, but then stick to the ATMs at the Marriott, Sheraton, and US Embassy only. For safety's sake, DO NOT use one on the street outside, whatever you do.

What unique local items can you spend it on? Georgian wine is the best in the world, but nothing else here is worth its price.

Student in Tbilisi, 11/06:

What fast food and decent restaurants are available? McDonald's has obviously plagued this city, although there are many other fast food places that are cheaper and better. There are many very good restaurants here: these include a few Chinese restaurants, some Italian restaurants, many Georgian restaurants, some Russian restaurants, etc.

How much of the local language do you need to know for daily living? Quite a lot. Basic Georgian and/or Russian are essential here for people that actually want to do something.

Morale among expats: Although there are many foreigners here, there are very few that actually go out and enjoy the culture. Many foreigners are incredibly ignorant of the local culture and extremely paranoid. Many of them are convinced that the local population wants nothing more than to steal their money and hurt them in some way. Those are the foreigners that enslave themselves in their huge houses behind 3-metre walls and only leave to go to work. In reality, there is no real danger in this city; it is safer than most Western cities.

Entertaining/social life: There is an amazing opera here which has concerts and theater plays at least once a month. There are many extremely talented musicians in Georgia, and it's quite easy to find a café with good live music. Apart from that, there are many cultural events throughout the year.

Knowing what you now know, would you still go there? Yes, I believe I'll return many times in the future.

"Sweet"

2008-08-12T01:30:00.006-04:00

A commenter on Robert Pelton's site sizes up the Russia-Georgia conflict:

Sweet – this should create about 1500 contractor jobs, I have already heard from one recruiter.

Apparently Iraq's carcass has been picked clean. On to Georgia for the next adventure and payday!

Gratuitous Headline Of The Year Award

2008-08-12T00:47:00.002-04:00

Did a double-take on this one when I saw it -- thought it might be a spoof.

Georgia

2008-08-11T03:22:00.006-04:00

Not much worthwhile commentary out there from what I can see. Two notable exceptions are here and here. A commenter on the latter's site mocks the initial, predictable narrative: "The Brave Plucky Georgians Cruelly Crushed by the Russian Bear." While there are signs the conflict may move closer to that storyline if it continues, the Johnny one-notes won't deserve any credit for their insight.

Regarding Johnny one-notes, does McCain really want to make this a "3 a.m. phone call" issue? This sort of event emphasizes the need for flexibility, coolheadedness, and restraint. I didn't think anything could make me grateful for our current leadership at this point, but it seems pretty even-keeled compared to McCain's predictable act (to be fair, the president apparently had other things on his mind). Are we to expect that McCain, if he wins, would get less dogmatic as he approaches his eightieth birthday? In Washington there's a fine line between doctrinaire and dangerous, and it's solely a function of job title.

By the way, could there be a more appropriate coda to Condi Rice's tenure? Where would we be right now if she wasn't a renowned expert on the region?

They Doth Discredit Too Much

2008-08-07T02:53:00.019-04:00

If you've paid close attention during the past few years, you might have noticed a recurring Bush administration theme: a strange obsession with "conspiracy theories." Some examples (and yes, these are just some):

Any government that tries to pick and choose its terrorist friends will be regarded by us as a supporter of terrorism. We expect nations to speak the truth about terror. They shouldn't encourage malicious lies and outrageous conspiracy theories concerning the attacks of September the 11th.

-President Bush 11/10/01

Were the coalition to step back from the June 30th pledge, many Iraqis would question our intentions and feel their hopes betrayed. And those in Iraq who trade in hatred and conspiracy theories would find a larger audience and gain a stronger hand.

-President Bush 4/13/04

When some in the Muslim world incite hatred and murder with conspiracy theories and propaganda, their words are also heard - by a generation of young Muslims who need truth and hope, not lies and anger.

-President Bush 6/29/04

The militants are aided, as well, by elements of the Arab news media that incite hatred and anti-Semitism, that feed conspiracy theories and speak of a so-called American "war on Islam"...

-President Bush 10/6/05

Q: I'd like to know what's your reaction to people who say that the major driving force for your interest in Africa is oil and that, you know, what you are trying to do, essentially, is to shift the focus from Saudi, with first your relationship between Saudi and U.S. now, to Africa. Now, how much of that --

A: Saudi Arabia?

Q: Yes. So I'd like to know how much of that is actually for instance, in your interest in Africa?

A: Well, conspiracy theorists about everywhere, I guess.

-President Bush 7/3/03

If you've been in politics as long as I have, you get used to that kind of technique where you lay out a conspiracy and then force people to try to prove it doesn't exist.

-President Bush 8/21/07

I always feel a genuine bond whenever I see Senator Clinton. She's the only person who's the center of more conspiracy theories than I am.

-Dick Cheney 3/6/04

That said, we do believe that in some quarters there is a tendency to allow the spewing of propaganda that most -- propaganda and conspiracy theories -- that are not helpful and not true.

-Condi Rice 11/8/01

And many more are fed a steady diet of hateful propaganda and conspiracy theories that twist American policy into grotesque caricatures.

-Condi Rice 8/19/04

The antidote to this radical vision is democracy, justice, and the freedom agenda. This agenda offers empowerment as an alternative to enslavement. It offers participation in place of exclusion. It offers the marketplace of ideas to counter the dark world of conspiracy theory.

-Stephen Hadley 10/31/05

There is a conspiracy theory out there that there was some protracted negotiation, or that this was information that was in a clandestine way being forced into the speech by various factions of the administration. It's simply nonsense.

-Dan Bartlett 7/22/03

Two speeding tickets, July '64 and August '64, $10 fine, Houston traffic court. Two collisions, July '62 and August '62, $25 fine, Houston traffic court. I'm just amazed by the kinds of conspiracy theories that some have chosen to pursue.

-Scott McClellan 2/12/04

Conspiracy theories do nothing to help the Haitian people move forward to a better, more free and more prosperous future.

-Scott McClellan 3/1/04

Q: Scott, I know we talked about this earlier, but can you give us your reaction to the move by Democrats to challenge the result in Ohio?

A: Sure, and we did discuss it earlier. I think the American people spoke very clearly on election day. And the election is behind us. The American people now expect their leaders in Washington to focus on the big priorities facing this country, and to act on those priorities. It is time to move forward, and not engage in conspiracy theories or partisan politics of this nature.

-Scott McClellan 1/6/05

That's an interesting conspiracy theory. The President nominated her because he believes she was the best person to fill the position and based on the consultations he had with members of the Senate, who said he should look outside the court.

-Scott McClellan 10/27/05

And I think what we have going on here is that the 100-hour congressional agenda is faltering, and in that vacuum, that they've decided to fall back on what is a tried and true tactic of theirs, which is creating grand conspiracy theories that have no basis in fact.

-Dana Perino 4/25/07

Q: What about the timing of all this? Again, it was just Thursday that the Vice President, Hayden admitted the United States had used waterboarding against some of these suspects. And then, lo and behold, Monday the DOD announces they're going forward on these cases.

A: I can see conspiracy written all over your face, but there was none.

-Dana Perino 2/11/08

Q: Ari, there's a lot of concern around the world, the administration has been so eager to find weapons of mass destruction that we might be so eager as to plant it. Is there any plans to allow U.N. inspectors back into the country in order to increase --

A: Well, one, that entire notion is nothing but nonsense. It's stuff of conspiracy theories and I don't deal in that.

-Ari Fleischer 4/10/03

The comment by Ari Fleischer just above is interesting in light of the new report by Ron Suskind on what happened later in 2003 (related, be sure to read this post by Phil Giraldi). But the one at the top of the list, Bush's comment about 9/11, struck me at the time as particularly strange. I found it incongruous and jarring, almost "beneath" the presidency. Since then we've learned about various illegal, false-flag deceptions considered and/or carried out during this administration, the latest of which to become public is in Suskind's book. Like a prostitute-visiting politician who zealously champions family values, it's becoming clear that conscious guilt drove the overall effort to discredit "nuts." (The common language used by different press secretaries merely reflected the guilt-based, best-defense-is-a-good-offense anxiety of the principals.)

To be clear, and to save the comments section from death by a thousand batty 9/11 links, I mean this a bit less "conspiratorially" than it sounds. But is there a point at which serious people acknowledge a need to re-examine literally everything that's happened during the past seven-plus years?

One Hundred Billion Mark Nation

2008-08-06T18:33:00.008-04:00

I didn't think this post from a couple of days ago would need updating so soon. But via Ron Suskind's new book, the false flag list just got longer. This part of the story stuck out to me:

In his book, Suskind writes that Tenet gave Rob Richer, the CIA's former head of the Near East division and deputy director of clandestine operations, the fake letter during a fall 2003 meeting. Suskind quotes Richer as saying, "George said something like, 'Well, Marine, I've got a job for you, though you may not like it.'"

If true, it answers any remaining questions about the reasons for this bizarre ceremony, which took place twelve months later.

We'll see where this goes. So far the reaction has been underwhelming. I'm beginning to think if we learned tomorrow that an asteroid was about to destroy the planet, the story would come in a sleepy third to Paris Hilton and breaking news on Beijing's air quality. If Suskind's revelation elicits little more than a national and congressional yawn, Thomas Mann probably explained it best:

The market woman who demanded in a dry tone "one hundred billion" mark for a single egg had lost during inflation her ability to be amazed at anything. Since that time nothing was so mad or so atrocious that it could have caused any awe in people anymore.

Again, inflation is simply a symbol for any period of profound institutional failure to which the public becomes inured.

If that sort of psychological trauma explains our great national shrug, it has important implications -- not only for where one might want to live, work, own property, raise kids, and certainly invest money and keep savings, but for where it's safe to do so. No doom and gloom or Reynolds Wrap chapeau needed, just a basic historical perspective. As readers of this space know, that perspective has been enormously profitable during the past few years. And since history shows that economic events often precede and determine important political, social, and military ones, the latter three could get "interesting" from here -- and, depending on whether history repeats or merely rhymes, possibly calamitous.

Greatest Hits

2008-08-06T04:24:00.010-04:00

On anthrax there are a lot of them. Post or email your favorites. A few are below, and they run the gamut from amusingly amateurish to dangerously deceptive. This isn't an exercise in "archive gotcha." To varying degrees these words helped build the pre and post-invasion case for war, and during the past week there's been a distinct lack of retractions, revisitations, and mea culpas. Also, as Glenn Greenwald notes, the issue of where some in the media got their false Saddam-implicating info is an important one.

The leading supplier suspect has to be Iraq...the government has to do everything possible to destroy the anthrax threat at its state-sponsored source.

-Wall Street Journal 10/15/01

The discovery in a Florida office building of anthrax--the Iraq-favored biological agent--may be all the explanation we need for why the administration is beginning to warn that actions could be required against "other states."

-William Kristol 10/9/01

And Iraq is the only nation in the world, other than the United States and Russia, to have developed the kind of sophisticated anthrax that appeared in the letter sent to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. What will it take for the FBI and the CIA to start connecting the dots here? A signed confession from Saddam?

-Robert Kagan and William Kristol 11/19/01

"Nobody has the expertise and has any motive to attack the U.S. except Saddam to do this. This is Iraq. This is Saddam...Probably this is the first wave."

-Khidhir Hamza aka Saddam's bombmaker 10/22/01

Let me share with you my theory as to why American Media, parent company of The National Enquirer, The Star, and other tabloid magazines, may have been targeted by Osama bin Laden's anthrax-wielding henchmen.

-Jonah Goldberg, National Review, 10/15/01

Americans are now evenly divided on whether we should have toppled Saddam. Continued U.S. casualties will only increase those doubts. Yet no doubt would exist, if the public understood that Iraqi intelligence was intimately involved in the 9/11 attacks and that the military grade anthrax sent to Senators Leahy and Daschle almost certainly came from an Iraqi lab.

-Laurie Mylroie, National Review, 11/24/03

Letters accompanying the attacks stated, "Death to America. Death to Israel. Allah is Great." Nevertheless, investigations have focused on domestic sources since the anthrax was in some cases highly sophisticated and weaponized. The fact that the Kay report mentioned Iraqi anthrax-production capabilities could point in another direction, if the "domestic perp" premise can be overcome. (It is comparable to the premise that the D.C. sniper had to be a disgruntled, white, right-wing Christian—a bad working assumption that ignored the obvious.)

-James Robbins, National Review, 5/3/04

A constellation of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the 9/11 hijackers dabbled in anthrax was apparently put aside while the Bureau mulishly pursued its theory that a lone-wolf scientist perpetrated the attacks — a theory whose premise has been undermined by the forensic determination that the anthrax was not scientifically weaponized.

-The Editors, National Review, 11/27/06

Back Into The Memory Hole?

2008-08-04T14:43:00.006-04:00

That's how some would like it. With the death of Bruce E. Ivins, named as a suspect in the 2001 anthrax attacks, reports indicate that the government may mark the case "closed." But Ivins's death raises more questions than it answers. Glenn Greenwald performs a public service by asking some important ones here and here. Read the full posts if you haven't already. This entire episode is crying out for a full-scale, public inquiry.

As Glenn notes, it's important to remember the role the anthrax attacks played in the "case" against Saddam. A retrospective of the efforts by the usual suspects to link Iraq to the attacks would take a lot of ink. But this one, at the 1:05 mark, is both relevant and frightening:

If the allegations against Ivins are true, that makes at least three false flag operations contemplated and/or executed while this administration has been in office (though of course there's no evidence the administration had anything to do with the anthrax attacks). The others were Bush's prewar proposal to paint U.S. aircraft in the colors of the U.N. in hopes that Saddam would fire on them, and the post-Hormuz discussion of building replica Iranian boats and staging a confrontation. Throw in the Niger forgeries if you want. Of course these are the ones we actually know about. There's been a lot of speculation about war crimes and legal consequences, but I think prosecution, if it happens, is just as likely to be for this sort of misconduct. Remember, stuff like this almost always stays secret for decades. Usually the public has to wait for a guilty conscience in old age or a shredder-cheating document discovered in dusty archives (a well-known example of the latter is here). It's rare for these things to come out while the principals are alive, much less still in office. That bodes well for future disclosures.

But you have to wonder what it will take. It's scandalous that no one in Washington with subpoena power seems to think any of this is worth looking into. If at this point you don't understand that there are some truly malevolent actors out there willing to do literally anything to "wake up" the American public -- up to and including leaving a suitcase or backpack full of nastiness in the middle of a U.S. city -- you're either willfully ignorant or dangerously naive. Of course the message to developing nations, particularly ones with valuable natural resources, is protection by any means possible. False flag deception is a bit riskier when the target country possesses the ultimate deterrent.

Normally the best defense against all this is in a nation's character, in an innate ability to avoid what Haffner called "a million-fold nervous breakdown" -- a lack of national gullibility, collective coolheadedness under "attack," and skepticism about elected demagogues and disdain for their media mouthpieces. Which explains a lot about the past seven-plus years, unfortunately.

Dangerous times.

Outeat Them Back To the Stone Age

2008-08-01T03:59:00.010-04:00

Rush Limbaugh got some attention this week for this:

People apparently, supposedly, according to Drive-By Media reports, for the last two months, three months, have been showing up at automobile dealerships and trying to trade in their SUVs and other automobiles that are, quote, unquote, gas hogs, 'cause they can't afford 'em anymore with the tipping point price of gasoline now reaching four bucks per gallon. So we here in America, the most prosperous, the most advanced, the freest, greatest potential, the most amazing collection of human beings in the history of collections of human beings, we are getting rid of our SUVs and pickup trucks, and we are in the process of downsizing to driving bubbles with wheels, lawn mowers with wheels, battery powered cars and so for forth, what are they doing in China?

What are the ChiComs doing -- while we move ourselves back to the Stone Age -- well, at least in that direction. China's most popular car is an SUV. SUV sales in China are exploding...How does it make you feel that Zhang Linsen has a big Hummer with nine speakers blaring as he pulls out into a four-lane road with so much smog he basically can't see the car in front of him, and you are trading in all of your cars and trying to go out and find basically a lawn mower.

Excess means progress. Anything else -- in this case the traditional and erstwhile American virtues of thrift, prudence, and temperance -- represents "the Stone Age." This almost demonic obsession with consumption has infected the highest levels of policymaking in recent years. In a speech in early 2001, Robert McTeer, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said, "If we all join hands and go buy a new SUV, everything will be all right." In 2005 his successor, Richard Fisher, said:

Where would the world be if Americans did not live out their proclivity to consume everything that looks good, feels good, sounds good, tastes good? We provide a service for the rest of the world. If we were running a current account surplus or trade surplus, what would happen to economic growth worldwide and what would be the economic consequences? So I think we are doing our duty there.

It's one thing for gluttony to be an individual right, cherished as much as freedom of speech. It's quite another for it to be a rite of patriotism. And it's still another for it to put us in direct conflict with other nations that profit from and/or reject the monetary policy that piggishness requires.

This is the latest tremor from an increasingly unstable fault line that runs beneath conservatism. It's not just about SUV's. It's about a way of life that encompasses things as basic as nutrition and eating habits (be sure to read this typically insightful Larison post). Is "green" a fad? Do organics and sustainability represent a secular trend, a return to a pre-bubble national mindset? By the time it waddles away from the all-you-can-eat buffet, conservatism -- at least part of the movement -- may be the last to find out.

Accountability Watch

2008-08-01T02:10:00.004-04:00

Military discipline isn't exactly my bag, so I don't know if this represents a new approach or merely a return to pre-Bush standard operating procedure. But we spent years bemoaning the lack of accountability under Rumsfeld, so let's acknowledge the welcome change that's taken place under Robert Gates. Nukes mistakenly get flown across the country on your watch? Your aircraft carrier gets taken out by a fire and needs $70 million of repairs after some sailors smoke in a prohibited area? Guess what: your career's over. A novel concept.

"Always Needs A Shower"

2008-07-30T02:33:00.007-04:00

Almost one year ago I wrote about a website called the International Sex Guide, which features reports from men who have used prostitutes around the world. That post, with some graphic details about the sex trade in Iraq, is here (it might not be appropriate for office reading). I checked in to see what those debonair charmers have been up to. Here's a post about the Green Zone dated June 20, 2008:

The 215 Apartments, now that its June its best in the evening, Just walk around have a chi and look for eye contact, you'll know if there approachable. Depending on who you work for and your freedom of movement means alot, hang around Karata Gate (11) just outside or the walk in over the bridge. The chinese resturant is operating, I stopped for a beer the ladys are old, way past there prime but supposedly some locals can be had, order a beer and ask the lady about a massage and she will take your phone number Iraqna or Asia cell no MCI.

If you have access to the Palace Pool, Salsa and Karaoke are good nights, look for the L3 ladies sitting together thier is one that looks like an old Cleopatra, stop and chat. Freedom Pool is good on those same nights but you have to be charming with the Ex-Pats.

Prices vary it could be anywhere from 20 to a 100 usd depend on where and what you hook up with. I can't give specifics (I may have to pony up the $20 bucks for PM priveledges) but a girl from the outside is almost definitly semi-pro and usually a lot of fun and always needs a shower.

Relax and have fun with it you can hook up look at all the marriages taking place and you know most of them will be left behind.

Scuttledbutts?

2008-07-29T03:44:00.004-04:00

Barry Ritholtz posted some commuter-train chatter from a couple of Merrill Lynch employees. A quick contribution: I know a senior exec at Merrill who's worked there for a long time. His area is totally unrelated to the mortgage debacle, and his desk is a money-maker. I saw that he just created a listing on LinkedIn, a career networking site for professionals.

If there's one person I wouldn't expect to contemplate a job change or especially to use a site like LinkedIn, it would be him.

"Buyers Arrived While The Body Was Still Inside"

2008-07-26T03:33:00.005-04:00

This story via a reader. Does Alan Greenspan still have mirrors in his house? Fewer bailouts and more prosecutions, please.

According to news reports, the company foreclosing on the home was PHH Corp. of Mount Laurel, N.J. On its website, the company lists UBS prominently as a "new client." Phil Gramm, vice-chairman at UBS, might want to ring up his firm's new business partner to get a field report on the "mental recession."

Growing Gills

2008-07-23T07:46:00.010-04:00

I took this photo the other day in New York. Not on some forgotten sidestreet in the south Bronx, not north of 125th, but right in the middle of Manhattan. I passed him, as others did, and kept walking for a minute or two. Then, remembering this incident, I went back to see if I should call an ambulance. By that time the police had arrived. One of the cops asked someone how long he'd been there. The answer: "From earlier today."

During the past couple of years, I've posted several times (presciently, it turns out) about New York City's growing quality of life problem. At this point it's undeniable: from the explosion in panhandling and homelessness, to the traffic congestion, to a mass transit system that's embarrassingly decrepit and disgusting and bursting at the seams. To be sure, New York has always had "issues" even in the best of times. But the city is also a national bellwether, ever more so as the financial industry supplants manufacturing as this country's raison d'être. So the above scene reminded me of the debate in the second video clip here. Bernie Sanders's point, while obviously simplistic, is valid. No, you don't see people prostrate in the streets and ignored by passers-by in Stockholm, Oslo, or Helsinki (and we don't need to spend any time on why that's the case). But nor do you see it in dozens of other large Western cities, some of which rank higher on this list than any city in the U.S. And I may be wrong, but I bet you don't see it in central Beijing either.

Aside from the larger debate about capitalism and utilitarianism, there's a more immediate political issue. If conservatism aspires to be anything more than a debating society, it needs to stipulate that levees and bridges must be maintained and people cannot lie in the streets in broad daylight in the major cities. When Jonah Goldberg advised New Orleans residents to "grow gills" during the early hours of Katrina, it wasn't just bad burlesque. It represented the ceding of responsibility for government's most basic functions to the Left. To do this permanently, either expressly or via the de facto effect of economic policies, would be a terrible mistake. And, ideologically at least, it's unnecessary. Hayek in The Road to Serfdom:

... there are two kinds of security: the certainty of a given minimum of sustenance for all and the security of a given standard of life, of the relative position which one person or group enjoys compared with others. There is no reason why, in a society which has reached the general level of wealth ours has, the first kind of security should not be guaranteed to all without endangering general freedom; that is: some minimum of food, shelter and clothing, sufficient to preserve health. Nor is there any reason why the state should not help to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance in providing for those common hazards of life against which few can make adequate provision.

Those of us who spent the past few years calling out the Titular Right didn't do so because we like taking long, warm showers with Democrats. It wasn't hard to see that the Republican claim on conservatism would discredit it and eventually lead to higher taxes, bigger government, and interference in free markets. The flawed economic policies imploded, and we got the latter two. The taxes will come next. This will be the legacy of the current administration and its enablers.

Recent events suggest that capitalism sometimes needs to be saved from itself. Looking at photos like the one above, it's hard not to think the same about conservatism.

Summertime, And The Blogging's Not Easy...

2008-07-22T01:37:00.005-04:00

Had a couple of things I wanted to get to, but light posting to continue for now.

Foolish Consistency

2008-07-17T03:07:00.005-04:00

From the statement of the FOMC on June 25, when it kept the fed funds rate at 2%:

"The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year."

From Ben Bernanke's prepared testimony this week, just thirteen business days later:

"Inflation seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term."

Look, this insanity has to stop. Was he asked about this on Tuesday or Wednesday? I didn't catch the full sessions, but I'd bet my last American peso that he wasn't. It's clearer every day that the Fed is in serious need of oversight and reform. Have you ever read the minutes of an FOMC meeting? There's more accountability on one of those muffled surveillance tapes from the Ravenite Social Club. There are no names or faces at Fed meetings. Except for indicating at the end how each member voted, the minutes are a stream of "some participants felt" and "others were concerned." If the Fed won't keep minutes that conform to basic corporate or even small-town standards, Congress or the GAO must sit in on all meetings and issue a separate report. Give an independent monitor an office next to Bernanke's, with full access to anything that happens in that building.

While we're on the subject of Fed reform, how about restricting the ability of Fed chairmen to collect huge paychecks from Wall Street when they leave? It's amazing this hasn't been done already. Do you know how much money Alan Greenspan has made from the same firms that flourished during his monetary munificence? In a world of accountability he might be keeping a low profile right now, or even having some quiet preliminary chats with a Stan Brand type in case things in this country really go south. Instead he's depositing fat checks. Bernanke will do the same one day, unless Congress takes away his future "bailout bonus" right now.

"Ready For Anything" Nation

2008-07-14T00:03:00.012-04:00

A few thoughts on the GSE situation. Unlike most of what's happened during the past seven-plus years, there's enough blame to go around for both Republicans and Democrats. If you don't know how institutionalized Fannie and Freddie have become, here's a good, basic article from over the weekend. I've posted before (most recently here) about the exigencies of the "system" and how the government's ability to both guarantee and bail out depends on the primacy of the dollar. Any country that rejects that primacy creates unpleasant consequences, and that constitutes an existential threat to the system. Keep it in mind over the next few months. Remember, statists hate consequences, especially when culpability is clear.

I think right now the main danger is that the current bunch (yes, including Bernanke) knows it will be gone soon, so expediency could determine policy even more than it has during the past few years. In January, with oil at $100, I wrote:

I think years from now Bernanke will be seen as a temporary cut-out, an Arthur Burns mini-me, a front man for expediency, someone to damn the monetary torpedoes and then get the hell out before some Very Serious People (who no doubt quietly shifted their own savings into euros and gold long ago) announce that no, that didn't go well, but we've found a Volcker-type to come in and clean things up.

That outcome's looking increasingly likely. But if you think inflation's a problem now, wait until you see what happens to the dollar and therefore the cost of living if we breezily embark on some massive new expansion of government liabilities. The dollar has already factored in part of this, so the worst effects might not be felt right away. But down the road -- after January 20, 2009, obviously -- it would be devastating.

Next, the "ownership society." The debacle with housing, Bear Stearns, and the GSEs has redefined the concept. You mean you didn't hedge your savings against inflation and the socialization of risk by speculating in real estate, or by owning stock in Fannie (or Bear Stearns or other financial firms) and deftly selling before the collapse? Well, too bad. This is what an ownership society is, or at least becomes when fiscal and monetary policy go awry. You'd better dutifully play along with the charade on the way up, because you'll definitely be included on the way down.

Related, if you're one of those strident advocates of "fixing" Social Security via private accounts (as is McCain, and others on the Right who were strangely silent about the financial market turmoil last week) you've got some 'splainin to do. This mess exposes the folly of building an even higher government backstop in the name of ownership society. And let's not kid ourselves: if Social Security funds were invested in the common stock of Fannie or Bear Stearns or the raft of other financial firms currently in trouble, what effect would that have on Washington's definition of "too big to fail"? Since the mid-90's, the Federal Reserve has proven itself unable to resist the pressure to take extraordinary measures to boost the stock market. That's part of the reason we're in this mess. On a political, economic, social, and perhaps most importantly a spiritual level, do we really need the financial markets to become an even greater national priority, and for the Fed to expand its role as the Keeper of the Flame of National Purpose? Why not a stock market ticker on every street corner, continually flashing "Your retirement money guaranteed by the federal government." Or maybe "Bubbleamus, ergo sumus" -- which, if I remember my verb conjugations from seventh-grade Latin, should roughly translate as "We bubble, therefore we are."

Finally, does anyone else find the lack of national outrage about all this a bit unsettling? It's almost a serene, sedated acceptance. Maybe after seven-plus years it's outrage fatigue. Maybe the pain's not bad enough yet. Or maybe democracy's simply working as it should, and people will vote calmly in November to throw the bums out. I'm not sure what I expected in terms of outrage. But in a week that saw oil wink at $150, one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, and media speculation about a doubling of the public debt with a bailout of Fannie and Freddie, I didn't expect to hear a top economic advisor to one of the candidates claim that it's all in our heads. I do think that if things get bad enough, eventually there will be calls to prosecute the policymakers -- both elected and appointed -- responsible for this mess. War crimes or something else might be the proximate cause for that prosecution, but economic collapse, if it happens, could create an environment in which the public demands it. Electoral victory shouldn't confer the unfettered right to run a country into the ground.

But if "sedated acceptance" explains the absence of pitchforks, that has ominous implications. Thomas Mann described the effects of inflation on a nation's collective psyche, but his observations arguably apply to any period of profound institutional failure to which the public becomes inured:

The market woman who demanded in a dry tone "one hundred billion" mark for a single egg had lost during inflation her ability to be amazed at anything. Since that time nothing was so mad or so atrocious that it could have caused any awe in people anymore.

In Crowds and Power, Canetti argues that economic chaos causes a society to place less value on human life:

The natural tendency afterwards is to find something which is worth even less than oneself...It is not enough to take over an old contempt and to maintain it at the same level. What is wanted is a dynamic process of humiliation. Something must be treated in such a way that it becomes worth less and less, as the unit of money did during the inflation. And this process must be continued until its object is reduced to a state of utter worthlessness. Then one can throw it away like paper, or repulp it.

Sebastian Haffner on what happens when sedated acceptance meets Canetti's dynamic process of humiliation:

Everything takes place under a kind of anesthesia. Objectively dreadful deeds produce a thin, puny emotional response. Murders are committed like schoolboy pranks. Humiliation and moral decay are accepted like minor incidents. Even death under torture only produces the response 'Bad luck'...The result of this million-fold nervous breakdown is the unified nation, ready for anything, that is today the nightmare of the rest of the world.

The woman selling eggs in the market starts to look abroad. I don't think you can blame "the rest of the world" for watching us right now with a very wary eye -- and not just for currency reasons.

On Top Of The Situation

2008-07-11T13:06:00.004-04:00

Overtime-related kudos to be handed out again on Monday morning? More on this grand debacle over the weekend, hopefully.

Turning Pop Culture Upside Down

2008-07-11T03:09:00.004-04:00

If you missed it, the June 30 issue of TAC has a good cover story on the natural link between conservatism and healthy eating. Of course, no political philosophy has a sole claim on this subject -- check out how many reader comments this New York Times piece inspired. But as the TAC articles explain, the "culinary culture" and its associated rituals dovetail with traditional conservatism in some basic ways.

Small Town News

2008-07-11T02:43:00.002-04:00

The Telluride Daily Planet in Colorado reports on the town's recent music festival:

Aside from dozens of parking violations and some illegal camping, there were few flare-ups of trouble, said Telluride Chief Marshal Jim Kolar.

“Despite the larger crowds, there was much fewer acting out,” he said.

A 17-year-old kid on mushrooms was arrested after a fight erupted when he fondled a married woman, Kolar said.

They Hate Us For Our Freedom

2008-07-09T01:39:00.006-04:00

Via a reader, a post on another blog:

Sunday, a Hasidic woman scolded me for inappropriate behavior in her neighborhood. I was running up Bedford toward Williamsburg, following a part of the marathon course I often branch from to go over the bridge into Manhattan for a longer run. That day I elected to just do a fairly mindless 35 minutes out and back, a route I don’t have to think about.

It was warm and I dressed in fairly traditional summer running attire: shorts, jog bra and a baseball cap, a far cry from the traditional attire of this conservative religious sect where the women don wigs and hats and long dark dresses.

By the time I turned onto Bedford, I was feeling pretty good. My iPod was dishing out tunes that make me dancingly happy and I was starting to feel the effects of the runners’ high, moving at a speedy clip and jogging about in place when traffic lights held me up. I’d just hit my half-way point and turned around when she stepped toward me on the sidewalk, shook her finger and said, with a disapproving frown, “you can’t go like that through here.”

My first feeling was embarrassed sheepishness. It’s not like I was unaware of the neighborhood’s demographic, and in her eyes I was practically naked. It was disrespectful, probably, for me to prance, flushed and happy, along this avenue of Hasidim with my navel showing. I wouldn’t have dreamed of baring even my ankles in parts of Jerusalem.

But then a bit of defensiveness kicked in. This is not Jerusalem, it’s New York freakin’ City, and to the best of my knowledge I can “go like that” anywhere I damn well please. I’m not sure what’s on the books legally as far as lewdness and public attire, but I’m pretty sure a jog bra and baggy shorts are well within reason.

This isn't an isolated incident for that area of New York; I've heard variations of it over the years. In addition to my full support of a woman's right to wear skimpy jogging attire, I wonder how many breathless updates and flashing sirens we'd see from the Titular Right if, instead of a Jewish community, this sort of overt intimidation took place in a Muslim one. "See? Paris and London appeased them, and now it's happening right here in New York City!"