Nick's Twins Blog

Joe Mauer: AL MVP

2009-11-24T00:00:00.002-06:00

When Joe Mauer's first swing of the 2009 season sent a ball sailing over the left field wall in the Metrodome, one got the sense that this was going to be a special year. Mauer missed the entire month of April due to a back injury, but in a way that might have been a blessing because his absence made local fans all the more appreciative of what he brought to the table once he finally was able to take the field. Even with a month's worth of missed games, there is no taking for granted what Mauer was able to accomplish this season, and fortunately the BBWAA voters saw it the same way as they awarded the Twins catcher with his first American League MVP award yesterday.

It had been widely assumed that Mauer would capture this honor ever since he batted .354 in September/October to put the finishing touches on a dazzling season and help launch his team to an improbable postseason berth, but yesterday it became official. Mauer becomes the fifth Twins player to win an MVP award, and the second in the past four years.

By now you're probably familiar with the numbers, but let's break them down again quickly. Mauer hit .365/.444/.587, leading the league in all three categories to capture the so-called "Sabermetric Triple Crown." He overcame a historical lack of power by bashing 28 home runs -- more than double his previous career high -- and drove in 96 runs while scoring 94 times. He walked more than he struck out (76/63). He hit .377 against right-handed pitchers and .345 against lefties. He posted a 1.067 OPS with runners in scoring position. It was a remarkable offensive season from just about any angle, and he did it all while putting in over 900 innings at the most demanding defensive position on the field. And while one can use the missed time early in the season as a mark against him, it's worth noting that Mauer was essentially an iron man after coming off the DL, resting less frequently than he ever has in the past and even catching both games of a crucial double-header late in the year. Even though he missed the entire month of April, Mauer played in 138 games and made 606 plate appearances; over the four seasons prior, he had averaged 131 games and 566 plate appearances.

Anyone with a working brain would have recognized Mauer as the AL's best player this year regardless of how the MVP voting results played out, but nevertheless it was quite encouraging to see Mauer place first on 27 of the 28 ballots while Mark Teixeira and his league-leading RBI total did not get one first-place vote. The ability of the BBWAA voters in this instance to look past traditional stats that tell you less about the performance of an individual player and more about the performances of his teammates, as they did with the Cy Young voting, represents refreshing progress.

Of course, the one downside to Mauer's capturing this award is that it will do nothing but strengthen his case at the negotiating table. And that is where our attention must now turn, because the Twins No. 1 priority at this point should be making sure they get their MVP locked up long-term.

Wrapping Up the Week

2009-11-20T00:00:00.002-06:00

Haven't gotten a post in since Monday, so let's touch on the past week's developments quickly...

* The BBWAA has pleasantly surprised me this week by electing deserving winners for both league's Cy Young Awards, uncharacteristically looking past relatively unimpressive win totals and awarding Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum for their fantastic bodies of work in the '09 season.

Greinke, who had a historically great season, was the clear-cut class of the AL this year, and any concerns that the voters would lean toward the gaudier win totals of less deserving candidates like Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia were erased when Greinke captured all but three first-place votes and won in a landslide. The NL picture was a bit less clear, and I was pretty torn between Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, but ultimately Linecum's huge strikeout totals and 2.48 ERA caused voters to overlook his weak 15-7 record. Adam Wainwright, who looked to many like the presumptive winner due to his league-leading totals in wins and innings pitched, surprisingly finished third.

With the quality selections in these categories, the much maligned BBWAA is starting to build up some good will among modern-thinking baseball analysts and fans everywhere. Of course, that could all be erased if Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols aren't announced as MVPs next week.

* Results for this year's Manager of the Year voting were also announced this week, and on the AL side, Ron Gardenhire finished just behind winner Mike Scioscia to notch his fifth second-place finish in eight years as Twins manager (there's also a third-place finish mixed in there). When pondering Gardenhire's candidacy for this award in late October, my conclusion was as follows: "I don't know if Gardenhire excelled more than any other American League manager this year -- Mike Scioscia and Ron Washington both did excellent work -- but he certainly deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Manager of the Year award." So, obviously I think Scioscia was a deserving candidate and I'm happy he won. The fact that Gardenhire recorded his sixth top-three finish in eight seasons since becoming Twins manager, though, only strengthens my perception that he is viewed much more highly around the country and around the league than he is here in Minnesota, and that he's probably a better manager than a lot of local fans give him credit for.

* Thrylos98, who authors the Tenth Inning Stretch blog, has been claiming on his Twitter account to have inside info on a developing blockbuster deal between the Twins and Marlins that will bring Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco to Minnesota.

Around the end of the regular season, Thrylos made a vague mention of a major move on the imminent horizon for the Twins, and after the J.J. Hardy trade was completed he claimed that this was the move he'd been referring to all along. Of course, that statement doesn't really jive with reports that the Twins started talks with the Brewers only 10 days before the Hardy trade was consummated, so you can color me skeptical. There's no way in the world I believe the Twins have the pieces (that they'd be willing to move, anyway) to reel in a marquis package like Uggla and Nolasco, but if such a swap actually goes down, I'll officially start referring to Thrylos by the nickname "Scoop."

* On Tuesday night, Seth Stohs had third base prospect Danny Valencia as a guest on his weekly podcast. An amusing moment came midway through the interview when Valencia took an opportunity to call out one of his harshest online critics.

"That guy, I don't know his name, he goes by TT," said Valencia. "It just seems like he doesn't like me, it's kind of unfair, but you know I guess it comes with what we do. TT, if I can make you like me man, let me know if I can get you on my side. I hate to read all the bad things you say about me, but we'll see what we can do."

Readers of this blog might recognize that name, as TT frequently engages in lengthy debates in the comments section here and also runs his own blog, Granny Baseball. I found the quoted portion of Seth's interview quite humorous given that I've always felt that TT has been far too critical of Valencia without any legitimate reason. In fact, just this week, when making his recommendations for additions to the Twins' 40-man roster on his blog, TT astonishingly skipped over Valencia while pointing out that the Twins seem high on the third baseman "despite his struggles at AAA last year." That seems like a rather absurd spin on a 758 OPS in a 24-year-old's first stint at the Triple-A level, and of course it's not difficult for any objective observer to see why the Twins are high on Valencia given his .299/.354/.480 hitting line in the minors and the relatively success he has experienced at every level, but it's hardly surprising to read that from TT.

Perhaps a personal appeal from the player himself will soften our friend's stance on Valencia. Somehow I doubt it.

By the way, make sure to check out Seth's podcast from Tuesday night here if you haven't had a chance. Aside from the interview with Valencia, who comes off as a real good kid, Seth also chatted with Steve Singleton, who just yesterday finished up a solid run in the Arizona Fall League.

* Finally, when you get a chance, make sure to check out the newest promising blog dedicated to the Twins and Minnesota sports at large, Undomed.

Mythical Joe Crede

2009-11-16T00:00:00.002-06:00

As the offseason gave way to spring training last year, rumors began to spring up regarding the Twins' interest in free agent third baseman Joe Crede. From pretty much the moment this speculation began, I took a stance against signing Crede, pointing out that with his troubling injury history and Tony Batista-esque career hitting line, his potential for plus power and defense were unworthy of a large financial investment.

The Twins ended up signing him, though they waited out agent Scott Boras until the price dropped to a reasonable $2.5 million guarantee plus incentives. At that type of minimal monetary commitment, even I couldn't take major issue with the signing. Still, I warned fans to keep their expectations for Crede in check, noting that when healthy enough to be on the field, "Crede should be able to provide strong defense from the hot corner while popping a few big home runs, but he is also likely to make a lot of outs."

When I did a preseason position analysis for third base, I projected that Crede would post a .255/.300/.425 hitting line with 12 homers and 50 RBI, anticipating that he'd hit around his career line while missing a sizable portion of the season due to injury. As it turned out, the prediction was accurate and the earlier Batista comparison was apt, as Crede hit .225/.289/.414 (Batista hit .236/.303/.388 with the Twins in 2006) with 15 homers and 48 RBI before having his season ended after 90 games due to yet another back injury. Of course, Crede was much better defensively than Batista, making this a much less disastrous experiment, but I nevertheless felt vindicated to see my warnings about Crede come to fruition almost precisely.

And so, when it came to light last week that the Twins may have interest in bringing Crede back on another incentive-laden one-year deal next season, I was somewhat appalled to see that the reaction from Twins bloggers and fans was overwhelmingly supportive. Are you kidding me?!

It seems to me as though the perception that Crede was a quality player for the Twins this season and would be a palatable option going forward into 2010 is predicated on a number of myths. Let's take a shot at dissolving these right now.

Myth No. 1: When accounting for defense, Crede was an overall positive contributor to the 2009 Twins.

This is a favorite argument amongst my fellow bloggers and stat-heads, and the go-to statistic when trying to support this one is WAR (or Wins Above Replacement), a metric featured on FanGraphs that attempts to quantify a player's contributions to a team while accounting for both offense and defense. According to this stat, Crede was worth 1.9 wins to the Twins in the '09 season.

Now, it's not in my nature to try and dismantle progressive baseball statistics, and I certainly don't think WAR is without it's value, but in the case of Crede I don't think it provides an accurate assessment of what can be expected going forward.

FanGraphs acknowledges that Crede was a liability at the plate, but according to UZR he was worth 12.5 runs over a replacement-level player in the field. Since UZR makes up the defensive side of the WAR equation, that big defensive boost completely accounts for his positive rating. Now, I like UZR as a defensive metric, but even its most avid supporters acknowledge that one year's data in isolation cannot provide a particularly accurate picture of a player's fielding acumen. Extrapolated over 150 games (UZR/150), the stat suggests that Crede's defensive performance would have been worth 23.4 runs this past year. He's a good fielder, but he's not that good. Crede's career UZR/150 is 10.2, so unless you believe that he magically took an enormous step defensively last year at the age of 31, it seems clear that the numbers over that 84-game sample are exaggerated and that expectations going forward should be adjusted accordingly.

My other problem with WAR's calculation is that it gives the same positional adjustment to a third baseman as it does to a center fielder. I don't really buy that the two positions carry the same defensive importance under normal circumstances, and I certainly don't believe that's the case on a Twins team that allows a higher percentage of fly balls than any other big-league club.

Regardless of what WAR and Crede's overstated UZR tell us, his quality defense at third simply doesn't outweigh his poor performance at the plate.

Myth No. 2: While not great, Crede's offensive output was significantly better than the rest of the players who filled in at third base in 2009.

On the surface, this statement seems obviously true, but it's really not. Crede hit .225/.289/.414 (703 OPS) this year, while all other Twins' third basemen hit .273/.339/.349 (688 OPS). That gives Crede a very modest offensive edge over the rest of the misfits who were trotted out to third in his absence this year and, depending on how you weigh AVG/OBP vs. SLG, perhaps not much of an edge at all.

There's a perception that hitting some home runs can completely make up for a dreadful on-base percentage, but that just isn't true. Which brings us to our next myth.

Myth No. 3: Crede did his job, which was delivering big hits and driving in the core hitters from the middle of the Twins' lineup.

There's no denying that Crede had some big, memorable hits this year. That fact probably feeds the perception that he wasn't a major offensive liability. But, by making outs more than 70 percent of the time behind the team's best hitters, Crede killed A LOT of rallies. He batted .198 with runners in scoring position.

Overall, Crede hit .225 with a .289 on-base percentage. Despite his ability to hit the ball out of the park on occasion, his slugging percentage fell below the league average for a third baseman. He was a bad hitter in 2009, and next year he'll be another year older and coming off another back surgery, while the Twins will be moving into a new park that doesn't figure to be a whole lot kinder to right-handed power hitters than the Metrodome was. I don't think the smart money is on his improving significantly.

Myth No. 4: Signing Crede again is a low-risk move and doesn't really carry any downside.

This is the biggest misperception, for me. Nick Punto is set to make $4 million next year and it has been made fairly clear by the Twins brass that he'll be starting somewhere in the infield in 2010. If Crede is re-signed, then Punto will be your starter at second base and it's unlikely that another infielder will be added to the club. So, if Danny Valencia isn't ready when Crede goes down (you'll excuse me for not using the word "if" at this point), we're looking at Tolbert or Harris at third base with Punto at second. Isn't that precisely the situation we'd like to avoid?

If the Twins are willing to sign Crede to a deal that can reach $5-7 million or so in attainable incentives, that means they must be prepared to spend that money. It has to be accounted for in the budget. If they're willing to spend that money, why not just go ahead and guarantee it to one of the many second basemen on the market who are better than Crede and far more likely to remain healthy? This would potentially provide the team with the legitimate No. 2 hitter it has been looking for while sticking Punto at third until Valencia hopefully overtakes him at some point.

There's something about Crede that enamors fans. But once you look past the myths and dig deeper into the numbers, you'll find that he's far from an ideal solution and that there are much better options available if the Twins want to field a quality infield group.

If several months pass without Bill Smith taking action on the infield situation and things stand the same in late January as they do now, then fine, sign Crede to another one-year incentive-laden deal. But I would consider that scenario a failure on the part of Smith and the Twins front office. There are too many opportunities on the market right now to settle for Joe Crede.

Missed the Mark

2009-11-13T00:00:00.002-06:00

In analyzing possible targets for the Twins this offseason, I'm starting to realize that I've been perhaps overly positive. J.J. Hardy? Great acquisition! Carl Pavano? Bring him back! Adrian Beltre? Great fit! And don't forget about my sleeper free agent second baseman, Jamey Carroll!

Lest I start to look like anything other than a nay-saying curmudgeon, let's spend today's post talking about a player that I think the Twins should most definitely avoid. Ironically, it's a guy that I advocated very strongly for them to bring in just last offseason.

That's because last offseason presented the perfect opportunity to make a play for Mark DeRosa. A right-handed batter, he was coming off three consecutive strong seasons, had only one relatively cheap year left on his contract, was capable of playing multiple positions where the Twins were thin, and was being made available by the Cubs for -- as it would turn out -- a pretty darn low price.

The Indians ended up swooping in and acquiring DeRosa in return for three marginal pitching prospects. He hit quite well for the Indians over the first half of the season before being sent to St. Louis to finish up his campaign with the playoff-bound Cardinals. Now, DeRosa becomes a free agent and the Twins will once again have the chance to move on him.

Things are different, though. He'll turn 35 in February and he's starting to show marked signs of decline. DeRosa skidded after being traded to the Cards last year and finished the season with a 757 OPS -- his lowest figure since 2004. Perhaps more alarming is that DeRosa's defense seemed to drop off the charts; he'd posted excellent UZR numbers at third base in 2007 and 2008 but this year finished at -8.7 there, and he's never rated well at second base.

Another fact to keep in mind when contemplating DeRosa is that he needed wrist surgery at the end of the season. The injury was likely a significant factor in his late-season decline, but there's no guarantee that he'll bounce back even after surgery, considering his age.

DeRosa's right-handed stick and ability to play second, third and left field make him a desirable fit for the Twins at a quick glance, but a deeper look tells us that this is the wrong time to be signing him to a multi-year deal -- which he'll certainly be seeking this winter. Getting DeRosa a year ago would have been a wise move that would have made the Twins a better team in '09. But the Twins missed their window, and at this point the best idea is to simply pass.

Is Beltre the Final Infield Piece?

2009-11-11T00:00:00.003-06:00

In his last contract year, Adrian Beltre hit .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs and 121 RBI for the Dodgers, finishing second in the National League MVP voting. He ventured into free agency for the first time that following winter as a 25-year-old third baseman with elite defense and a 794 career OPS coming off a breakout year. After flirting with numerous clubs, he ultimately signed a five-year deal with the Mariners worth $64 million.

Beltre's five years in Seattle were a let-down. He never came close to approaching that amazing final season in Los Angeles, topping out at 26 homers while failing to bat better than .276 or slug better than .482 during his tenure with the M's. This past season was his last before again becoming eligible for free agency, and it was a far cry from his walk year with the Dodgers. Beltre posted a 683 OPS -- his lowest figure since he played in 77 games for the Dodgers as a 19-year-old back in 1998 -- in a season that was marred by injuries, including one of the most cringe-inducing I've ever heard of.

And so, Beltre enters free agency for the second time this winter under vastly different circumstances than his first forray into the open market. He's got much to prove after seeing his production decline dramatically this past year, but he remained a quality player during his first four seasons in Seattle and some team will likely pay a relatively high price to see if he can regain that form -- or perhaps show some semblance of the ability that he flashed during that final season in LA. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted that that team would be the Twins.

The thought is fairly tantalizing. In Beltre and J.J. Hardy, the Twins would boast a tremendous defensive left side of the infield capable of combining for 50 home runs. Beltre's 14.3 UZR in '09 suggests that his defense did not slide along with his offense. Like Hardy, Belte's right-handed stick would play well in the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup and there's plenty of reason to believe that his offensive production will increase once he escapes the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco (he consistently hit better on the road than at home during his time with the Mariners).

If he's back to full health and effectiveness, Beltre would be a perfect fit for the Twins. But finding out whether he'll be able to return to that level is a risk -- even beyond the aforementioned gruesome injury, he has undergone surgery on both his shoulder (twice) and thumb within the past year -- and it won't be a cheap one at that. Beltre is still only 30 years old and with his pedigree of hitting for power while playing outstanding defense at the hot corner, he's bound to draw numerous suitors on the free agent market, especially considering that his tough '09 campaign knocked his free agent status down to Type B. Bill Smith has already taken a rather significant gamble by investing on a player coming off a down year in Hardy; is he willing to do so again by trying to outbid other clubs for Beltre?

My guess is no. I doubt the Twins really even have the money available to make a legitimate offer on Beltre, especially considering their professed need for help in the rotation. But I think he'd be an excellent final piece to the infield equation, adding another dynamic right-handed bat to the lineup while rounding out an exquisite defensive infield by allowing Nick Punto to slide over to second and to the ninth spot in the lineup. Sure, the signing would carry some risk, but Smith has shown no aversion to taking gambles thus far and the upside of a Hardy/Beltre pairing on the left side would easily outweigh the potential downside of such a move.

Bringing Back Pavano

2009-11-10T00:00:00.003-06:00

The Twins are currently amidst a two-week window of exclusive negotiating rights with internal free agents before the market opens on November 20. During that span, the team will have the opportunity to lock up Orlando Cabrera, Carl Pavano, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede and Ron Mahay before other teams can begin to make offers. From that group, we can already basically write a few names off. The trade for J.J. Hardy essentially closes the door on Cabrera, who will find offers to play shortstop elsewhere. Mahay is unlikely to return, with the bullpen picture for next season looking somewhat crowded as is. Redmond apparently wants to keep playing somewhere next year, but the smart money is against that team being the Twins. Crede could conceivably be brought back, but Bill Smith is almost certain to spend the winter months searching for better options before making a decision like that.

Which leaves us with Pavano. Smith has done nothing to hide his interest in retaining the veteran starter, who posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts for the Twins after being acquired from the Indians on August 7. The notion of re-signing Pavano doesn't seem to raise a lot of excitement amongst fans, but re-upping his contract might prove be the team's most reasonable method of ensuring that a reliable veteran arm is present in the 2010 rotation.

Pavano's overall numbers this season understandably don't get people into a lather. In 33 starts split between Cleveland and Minnesota, he went 14-12 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.38 WHIP -- thoroughly mediocre numbers. However, there are a few things that make Pavano an intriguing bet for next season.

For one thing, underlying statistics suggest that Pavano pitched better than those base numbers would indicate. His xFIP for the season was 4.17. Compare that to Scott Baker (4.46), Kevin Slowey (4.46), Nick Blackburn (4.78), Francisco Liriano (4.78) and Brian Duensing (4.97). Pavano gave up a lot of hits this year, but his BABIP of .330 was 22 points higher than his career average and 31 points higher than the major league average. Should that figure drop next season, he figures to do a great job of limiting baserunners given his outstanding control.

That outstanding control is something that cannot be ignored when analyzing Pavano. He ranked second among all American League starters in walks per nine innings with a rate of 1.76. His K/BB ratio of 3.76 ranked fourth in the AL, with Cy Young contenders Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander the only starters to sport better marks.

Of course, Pavano doesn't fall into that Cy conversation because he's just more hittable than those other elite hurlers. That's always been the case with Pavano; he's not dominant. Like Baker and Slowey, he falls into the mold of quality starting pitchers who limit walks and post respectable strikeout rates but give up a fair number of hits and a fair number of home runs. Keeping Pavano does not solve the Twins' need for a dominating power pitcher at the top of the rotation. But solving that particular issue will be a lot more difficult than some seem to realize.

Given the Twins' budget constraints, signing a John Lackey in free agency is out of the question. So here are the three viable methods of attaining a power arm that can serve as the team's ace next season:

1) Trade for an established top-of-the-rotation starter, like Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson. These two names were mentioned by Joe Christensen in his Star Tribune article yesterday. Such a move would not be characteristic for this franchise, and I'm very skeptical as to whether they have the pieces to pull of a blockbuster trade of this magnitude anyway. Not likely.

2) Sign a high-risk/high-reward free agent starter with injury concerns, such as Rich Harden or Erik Bedard. Harden's name has been very popular among Twins fans, but what people need to realize is that plenty of clubs around the league need pitching help and the Twins aren't the only ones who are going to think to themselves, "Hey, Harden's value is probably down due to his injury concerns, maybe we can get a good deal on him!" I'm all for signing a high-upside pitcher one a make-good short-term deal, but many of these starters are going to end up signing for more than people think. And once you get beyond a certain point of guaranteed money, these types of signings just stop being a good risk for a team with the Twins' budget constraints.

3) Hope that Francisco Liriano regains his second-half 2008 form. Liriano is the only pitcher in the organization right now with a history of pitching up to the level of a bona fide big-league ace. Even as one of his biggest supporters, I have a hard time trusting him to return to top form any time soon after his disastrous 2009 campaign.

Relying on any of those three options is a major gamble. Pavano is a pretty safe bet, though. He seemed to put any injury concerns behind him this season by racking up nearly 200 innings of work without issue. He fits right into the Twins' strike-throwing mold and seemed to have a positive impact on the hometown club after coming over via trade. While I wouldn't put much stock into it, team officials may take note of the fact that the Twins' team ERA was 4.67 prior to Pavano's arrival and 4.15 after he joined the rotation. It also certainly doesn't hurt that he was absolutely dazzling in his ALDS start against the Yankees.

So, the only remaining question is one of price. Prior to this season, Pavano hadn't put together a full season at the major-league level since 2004, so last winter he was forced to settle for a make-good one-year deal (the kind described in Option No. 2 above) that guaranteed only $1.5 million. He ended up earning close to $5 million with incentives, and he'll surely be looking for a raise next year. In my offseason blueprint, I suggested that the Twins bring Pavano back on a two-year, $12 million deal, hoping that his desire to return to Minnesota and the comfort of a multi-year deal might convince him to settle for a relatively modest raise in salary. He could try venturing into free agency in search of a larger gurantee, but one healthy year doesn't erase all his past injury concerns, and the fact that his actual numbers weren't all that great should play against him.

In the aforementioned Star Tribune article, Christensen quoted Smith as saying "if there's a veteran starter or two that's a good fit for us, then we'll proceed accordingly," and concluded that the Twins' GM might be tipping his hand regarding his offseason priorities. Even though Pavano is merely a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, bringing him back should be a priority. Engaging in the difficult task of uncovering an ace with limited resources can come afterward.

Wasting No Time

2009-11-09T00:00:00.004-06:00

Any concerns I had that Bill Smith and the Twins would become complacent in addressing lineup holes this offseason after enjoying a successful overall season offensively in 2009 were quickly assuaged on Friday morning when the club announced that they'd traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. As a relatively young shortstop who remains controllable for two more years and who has historically hit for power while playing great defense, Hardy seemed destined to be a hot commodity this winter after Milwaukee had made clear that he'd be available. Smith wasted no time in taking the 27-year-old infielder off the market, completing a swap just as the Yankees were parading through New York City to celebrate their World Series victory -- still only two days old.

That the Twins were interested in Hardy comes as no huge surprise. He's a very logical fit for this team and was in fact the very top player listed among our potential trade targets in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. Here's what I wrote about Hardy there:

Age: 27 (DOB: 8/19/82) | Contract Status: Arb Elig
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI
With the free agent market for shortstops looking exceedingly thin and the Twins lacking any legitimate prospects at that position, it appears that the only way to make a meaningful upgrade might be through a trade. Teams generally aren’t willing to part with capable young shortstops that are competent at the dish and in the field, but Hardy may be an exception. He is coming off a dismal offensive year, but he had averaged 25 homers and 77 RBI in the two seasons prior and he’s only 27 years old. Plus, he rates quite well defensively. The Brewers have a major-league ready SS prospect in Alcides Escobar, so they may be willing to deal Hardy even though his value is down. They’d likely seek big-league ready pitching in return.

Here's a more in-depth scouting report on Hardy, courtesy of Kyle Lobner from the Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball (you can also read a take on the trade from that blog here):

The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.

A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.

Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.

You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.

Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.

Many were surprised that the pitching-starved Brewers didn't move Hardy in return for a young starter (I had suggested Glen Perkins, whose name may or may not have come up in these discussions depending on who you listen to), but Gomez fills a need as well. With Mike Cameron departing, the Brewers were looking for another strong defensive center fielder, and they'll hope that with regular playing time in 2010 he can start to realize his offensive potential while tracking down everything between left and right.

Reaction to this trade from Twins fans has been overwhelmingly positive, and with good reason. As mentioned in my writeup from the Handbook and in Lobner's report, Hardy had been an excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979.

The loss of Gomez is being downplayed by many who have grown tired of his mental mistakes and offensive ineptitude, but his departure is not insignificant. Twins' pitchers allowed the highest fly ball percentage of any team in the majors this year, and that doesn't figure to change significantly next season. In trading Gomez, the Twins seem to be committing to an outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, which represents an incredibly vast downgrade from the Span/Gomez/Cuddyer alignment. Hardy is a better defensive player than anyone the Twins trotted out at shortstop this season, but given the nature of this pitching staff, swapping out Gomez for Hardy will likely lead to an overall drop in defensive proficiency.

Of course, Gomez's slick glove doesn't do much good when he's stuck on the bench, and Gardenhire seemed to have made up his mind on which young outfielder he was going to commit to by the end of the year. In September and October, as the Twins made a furious dash for the playoffs, Young started in the outfield 26 times; Gomez only eight. For better or for worse, Gomez had become the fourth outfielder on this club, and any time you can trade a reserve player for a starting shortstop you've done pretty well for yourself.

Hardy is a nice addition with the potential to provide serious power from the bottom of the lineup (or perhaps the No. 2 spot, if Gardenhire feels so misguidedly inclined) while likely upgrading the team's defense at one of the most important spots on the field. Gomez's departure also seemingly finalizes the club's outfield situation, effectively putting an end to the tired Gomez vs. Young debates. Second base and third base remain uncertain, along with at least one spot in the pitching rotation, so Smith's work is hardly done. But, less than a week into the offseason, he has already gotten a running start on his work for this pivotal offseason. Meanwhile, he has very quickly put to rest any worries that he'd be sitting on his hands as the team prepares to defend its AL Central title in the first year at Target Field.

Smith deserves credit for this bold, aggressive move. Even if it does mean that one of my very favorite Twins players will be suiting up across the border next season.

Twins Trade Gomez for Hardy

2009-11-06T11:29:00.005-06:00

Bill Smith made his first big offseason splash today, sending Carlos Gomez to the Brewers in return for shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was a suggested trade acquisition in my offseason blueprint. The deal swaps two players who both saw their value drop with rough seasons in 2009, though surely Hardy has proven more at the major-league level.

My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.

I'll have plenty more analysis of the move, and a more thorough breakdown of Hardy, on Monday.

The Importance of Foresight

2009-11-05T00:00:00.004-06:00

The Twins have enjoyed an impressive run of sustained success over the past nine years. Only once during that span (2007) have they posted a losing record. And if there's one lesson to be taken from the '07 team, it relates to the pitfalls of complacency.

In 2006, the Twins boasted a rather impressive offense. Joe Mauer won his first batting title, Justin Morneau captured the AL MVP award, Michael Cuddyer enjoyed a career year, Luis Castillo excelled at the top of the lineup in his first season as a Twin, and Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto delivered strong offensive contributions after taking over the left side of the infield midway through the season. All told, the Twins led the American League in batting average and surpassed the 800-run threshold that team officials seem to consider the bar for a successful offensive season.

Content in his lineup's quality production, Terry Ryan remained relatively inactive on the offensive side during the following offseason. This proved highly detrimental, as the Twins' offense suffered a massive slide the next year. The team's OPS+ dropped from 103 to 93, pushing them from above average to solidly below, and their average run output dropped from 4.94 to 4.43.

One could hardly have expected Ryan to predict that the production of Morneau would drop so significantly, or that both Mauer and Cuddyer would battle injuries for much of the year, or even that Punto and Bartlett would regress so dramatically after seemingly putting together breakout campaigns in '06. Yet, with a little foresight, Ryan could have better prepared the team for these types of circumstances. Entering the season with a useless Rondell White as a starter and with the offensively challenged Lew Ford and Jason Tyner as the team's top backup options in the outfield was pretty clearly a recipe disaster, leaving little margin for error amongst the offense's core. Ryan certainly had the right idea in signing Jeff Cirillo as a backup option for Punto at third base, but the aging Cirillo proved incapable of filling in at third on a regular basis and Ron Gardenhire seemed unwilling to pull the struggling Punto out of the lineup for prolonged periods of time anyway.

The 2009 season bears some similarity to that '06 campaign. Several members of the lineup's core -- Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Denard Span and Jason Kubel -- enjoyed absolutely phenomenal offensive campaigns, and the team's impressive late run at a playoff spot was once again boosted by unexpected late contributions from infielders who took over new spots and rose to the occasion. Smith must now learn from the past and avoid the complacency that led to the 2007 club's demise, because if just one or two of the lineup's core players battle significant regression or injury problems next year, the holes that surround them in the lineup could be magnified significantly.

Fortunately, Smith doesn't have to deal with deciphering the illusions present on that 2006 team. Despite his strong finish, Punto's overall numbers were terrible, and one would have to be out of their mind to think that Tolbert looks like a legitimate full-time major-league third baseman. There's also a clear hole in the outfield and no obvious candidate to start at shortstop unless Orlando Cabrera is re-signed (which in itself is an unsafe bet considering his age and declining production).

Given that the Twins ranked fourth in the league in offense this past season while averaging over five runs per game and ranked fourth-to-last in team ERA, one could logically conclude that improving the pitching staff should be Smith's chief focus during this offseason. I'm not sure that's the case. With guys like Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser returning from injury next year, and with the defense hopefully taking some steps forward, I think the team's run prevention is bound to improve even without significant outside reinforcements (particularly if Carl Pavano is brought back). Meanwhile, I see lots of room for regression on the offensive side of the ball, because it's tough to expect all five of the aforementioned "core" offensive players to repeat what they did during the 2009 season -- especially considering that three of those players have somewhat troubling injury histories.

Adding solid depth and filling lineup holes with adequate supporting players could go a long way toward protecting the Twins against the type of drop-off that struck that 2007 team. If the 2009 unit enters the season with a starting infield that consists of Tolbert, Cabrera and Punto, this lineup could be in serious trouble should Mauer's back act up or Kubel's knee give out.

***

Oh, and congrats (I guess) to the Yankees, who won the World Series in six games. Who could have seen that coming? :-)

Not Always Such Sweet Sorrow

2009-11-04T00:00:00.002-06:00

When Bill Smith took over as Twins' GM back in 2007, he wasted no time in completing his first roster purge, removing Josh Rabe, Luis Rodriguez, Lew Ford and Tommy Watkins from the 40-man roster just weeks after the regular season came to an end. I lauded the move at the time, noting that Smith was immediately "trimming the fat" and creating space on the roster for more useful players. Terry Ryan had a tendency during his years as GM to allow marginal players to occupy valuable roster spots for entirely too long, so this initial move by Smith seemed to bode well.

Indeed, Smith has subsequently shown a willingness to part with players, even if doing so reflects poorly on his earlier judgment. This was displayed perhaps most prominently when the Twins cut the disappointing Mike Lamb midway through the 2008 season despite having him signed through '09, forcing the club to eat millions in remaining salary. This offseason, we've already seen the organization part ways with Philip Humber and R.A. Dickey, and yesterday the team outrighted Brian Buscher from the 40-man roster.

It's no secret that I've always had a soft spot for Buscher; I certainly think he can serve a purpose if used correctly and I wouldn't have minded him as the left-handed side of a third-base platoon this past year. He's a patient hitter who makes good contact and often provides quality at-bats off the bench. Yet, he's not a strong defender at third base, doesn't have the speed to pinch-run and can't hit left-handed pitching. There's no denying that there are much better uses for a roster spot than a player with a skill-set as limited as Buscher's. There's a chance he could remain with the organization, but I suspect he'll look to get a fresh start elsewhere and I wish him the best if that's the path he chooses.

The goal now, as always, is finding a superior player to fill Buscher's spot on the 40-man roster. There was some thought yesterday that the Buscher move would serve as the prelude to an acquisition of Akinori Iwamura, who sources in Tampa Bay had reported was on the verge of being traded. Midway through the afternoon, though, it was revealed that Iwamura was headed to the Pirates. That scratches one high-ranking option off our list of potential upgrades at second base for the coming season.

In any case, Buscher's departure leaves an open spot on the 40-man roster, and a few more could open up in the near future depending one what happens with impending free agents Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, not to mention others like Buscher who are candidates to be outrighted.

The Defense Rests

2009-11-03T00:00:00.001-06:00

In diagnosing the issues with the 2009 Twins, many people often point to the pitching staff. That's reasonable; the Twins ranked fourth-to-last in the American League with a 4.50 team ERA -- that includes an ugly 4.84 ERA for the starters. Given how promising the team's young rotation looked a year ago, this nearly across-the-board regression is obviously a rather large disappointment that shrouds this group's future in doubt. But, it is important to note that Twins' pitchers are not totally to blame for the drop-off in run prevention. These guys were not generally getting a lot of help from their defense.

The Twins ranked third-to-last in the majors in team UZR during the 2009 season -- only the abysmal Royals and Mets rated worse. The defensive metric -- widely considered to be one of the most accurate -- suggests that the Twins' defense cost them more than 36 runs over the course of the season. The Twins had been below-average defensively in 2008 as well, but that negative figure is more than double the mark from the previous season. The reasons for the plummet? There are plenty of culprits. Carlos Gomez played in center field less; Denard Span played there more. Jason Kubel started playing the outfield more often. Orlando Cabrera was a regular at shortstop for two months. Joe Crede couldn't stay in the lineup consistently. Alexi Casilla had a terrible year defensively.

The Twins have a long-standing reputation as being a strong defensive club, mainly because they don't commit many errors. But they haven't always lived up to that reputation, and they certainly didn't this year. If he wants to get better results from his pitching staff next year, Bill Smith would be wise to keep team defense in mind as he reconfigures his roster. Fortunately, strong defenders tend to be undervalued assets in free agency as well as in trades.

When the Mariners traded away J.J. Putz and a pair of other players in a blockbuster three-way deal last winter, few people viewed Franklin Gutierrez as the gaudy centerpiece of a hefty return package that also included Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera. However, Gutierrez was quietly one of the league's most valuable overall players this season, playing absolutely stellar defense in center field (20.9 UZR) while posting a solid 764 OPS with 18 homers, 75 RBI and 16 stolen bases. Gutierrez was no small part of the reason the Mariners led the majors in UZR, which itself was no small part of the reason they led the AL in team ERA.

It's tough to find players like Gutierrez who can be quality contributors on both sides, but certainly those are the guys Smith should be focused on getting into his lineup. At the very least, though, he should make sure the defense that lines up on Opening Day next season is one that the Twins' starters can count on to make plays behind them.

Foul Ball!

2009-11-02T00:00:00.001-06:00

No new post for today, but I thought I'd share a picture of my Halloween costume. I'm sure Twins fans will need no explanation.

Birthday Wishes and a New Contest!

2009-10-29T00:00:00.001-05:00

Since I know Bill Smith reads this blog and is wondering what I'd like for my birthday (today is the big 2-4), a contract extension for Joe Mauer and a new second baseman would suffice. Oh, and if he wants to throw me a few tickets to the Target Field opener next year, that'd be dandy, too.

Speaking of Smith and the Twins' offseason, I'd like to direct everyone to TwinsCentric.com, which is hosting a new contest that allows you to predict just how exactly the Twins' brass will handle the upcoming offseason. The rules are simple: head to TwinsCentric.com, click on the contest link beneath the main image on the front page, fill in your predicted 2010 roster and payroll estimate in the appropriate fields (of course, figuring out the salary figures and available free agents/trade targets will be extraordinarily simple if you have a copy of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook handy), then click submit. You can track your projected roster throughout the offseason, along with those of other participants, and the team/payroll that most closely resemble the actual results on Opening Day 2010 will receive a fabulous prize! Submissions are due by the final out of the World Series, so hop to it!

Also, I appeared as a guest on the Fanatic Jack podcast last night. You can check that out here.

That's all I've got for today. Probably no blog update for tomorrow, so I wish everyone a happy and safe Halloween weekend.

Ron Gardenhire: AL Manager of the Year?

2009-10-28T00:00:00.001-05:00

There are two general points of view when it comes to Ron Gardenhire.

Most people outside of Minnesota seem to feel that he's one of the game's best managers, a man who consistently gets the very most out of his players and puts the Twins in a position to contend year in and year out. When a Twins game is nationally broadcast, you almost always hear the announcers fawning over Gardenhire. Fellow managers and baseball people across the league consistently speak very highly of him. Joe Posnanski -- who I think is one of the very sharpest baseball minds in the country -- has repeatedly opined that the Twins' manager is the best in the game. Gardenhire had placed among the top three finishers in the Manager of the Year voting five times in his seven years as a manager entering this season.

Many people within Minnesota who follow the Twins closely, on the other hand, seem to feel that Gardenhire is a terrible manager who holds the team back year in and year out. Fans rail on him for his bullpen management. Bloggers rip him for his stubborn loyalty to bad players. It seems that every week during the baseball season there are multiple columns in the local newspapers in which scribes question Gardy's tactical decision-making.

Logically, it would seem that the group that follows the team closely and gets an intimate perspective of how the manager operates would provide the most accurate portrayal of that manager's job aptitude. However, I don't think that's the case here. I feel as though many hardcore Twins fans get so worked up over Gardenhire's flaws that they are unable to fully appreciate the man's full body of work -- an eight-year tenure which now includes seven winning records and five division championships.

The most recent of those AL Central titles stands as perhaps the most impressive, all things considered. By mid-September this year, the Twins sat several games out of first place with numerous key players on the shelf. The starting first baseman -- who had been a crucial contributor during a first half in which he'd posted MVP-caliber numbers -- was done for the year with a back injury, as was the team's slick-gloved, power-hitting third baseman. Three-fifths of the season-opening rotation had lost their starting jobs, due to either injury or ineffectiveness (or both). The team was relying largely on mediocre minor-leaguers and relatively underwhelming trade acquisitions to scrape by. Most fans had given up on the club, and it would have been tough to blame the players themselves for packing it in and beginning to concentrate on next year.

But, they didn't. The Twins rallied to win 16 of their final 20 regular-season games to draw even with the first-place Tigers and force a one-game tiebreaker at the Metrodome. There, in a hard-fought extra-innings battle, the Twins emerged victorious, capping off one of the most improbable late-season comebacks in franchise history. Plenty of credit rightfully goes to the players who stepped up and carried the team during this impressive late stretch, but it's tough to overlook the man who piloted the ship.

Without a doubt, Gardenhire has his flaws. As a person who has watched the team regularly during his entire tenure, I'm not ignorant to those flaws. But what people around here don't seem to realize is that every manager has flaws. Yes, Gardenhire is too stringently adherent to traditional closer usage when it comes to utilizing Joe Nathan. Yes, he's too stubbornly fixated on having a middle infielder batting in the second spot in the order, regardless of whether that player's offensive proficiency qualifies them for such an important duty. Yes, he's overly loyal to the players he deems "scrappy." Yes, he lets his obsession with veteran presence put younger and more talented players at an often unfair disadvantage. But these are flaws that plague many of the game's managers. We've seen the skipper of each team in the playoffs this year make questionable decisions. There's no denying that Gardy is largely able to succeed in spite of his downfalls.

For whatever reason, people around here seem quick to criticize Gardenhire but hesitant to credit him for the things he does well. During almost every game I hear people complaining about the way he operates the bullpen, but the Twins finished fourth in the the league in bullpen ERA and sixth in WHIP this year despite sporting a corps of relievers that -- early in the season -- looked like it was going to be a complete disaster. In fact, Gardenhire's bullpens consistently rank among the league's best, and I would argue that managing relievers is actually one of his greatest strengths. It's easy to play the "coulda shoulda woulda" game during the season and point out individual instances where Gardy perhaps could have more effectively utilized his bullpen arms, but again I encourage you to step back and consider the overall results.

Gardenhire is also liked and respected by his players, which is no small thing. He keeps the clubhouse loose and and avoids infighting. It's worth noting that, despite his troubled past, Delmon Young has had essentially zero publicized negative incidents since coming to Minnesota. Orlando Cabrera, who was reportedly run out of Chicago last year after run-ins with his White Sox teammates and manager, was praised as a clubhouse staple here after coming over. Players enjoy playing for Gardy and they seem to stay motivated and focused.

A manager's effect on the outcomes of ballgames tends to be overrated. Gardenhire made some tactical decisions that helped the team this year and some that hurt it. But, in the end, his players came together for him and made a huge push, winning game after game late in the season to capture the division title.

I don't know if Gardenhire excelled more than any other American League manager this year -- Mike Scoscia and Ron Washington both did excellent work -- but he certainly deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Manager of the Year award. Even if local fans are too blinded by his downfalls to admit it.

Quick Notes

2009-10-27T00:00:00.001-05:00

Just some brief jottings on a couple different topics for today...

* Last week I was featured as part of the "Blogger Nine Innings" Q&A series for Jesse Spector's Touching Base blog at New York Daily News Online. I made sure to take advantage of the opportunity to be profiled in a New York publication by preaching the need for a salary cap in baseball and labeling Derek Jeter the game's most overrated player.

* Participating in the Venezuelan Winter League, Twins catching prospect Wilson Ramos is currently hitting .407 with five homers, six doubles, a triple and 21 RBI in 54 at-bats for the Tigres de Aragua. Before you get too excited, it's worth noting that hitters tend to dominate this league, but Ramos does lead all qualifying VWL batters in home runs (tied), RBI and OPS. Quite encouraging, but not quite enough so to make me very comfortable heading into the 2010 season with an unsigned Joe Mauer.

* Speaking of Mauer, Joe Christensen reports that the catcher was named Twins MVP yesterday by the local chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. File that under "Unsurprising." Hopefully this is just a prelude to the real deal, which will be announced in late November.

* Make sure you check out our friend Andrew Bryz-Gornia's new Twins blog, Off the Mark.

* And, for good measure, my World Series pick: Yankees in six.

Very Comfortable

2009-10-26T00:00:00.003-05:00

Last week, John Bonnes sat down with Twins general manager Bill Smith for an interview about the upcoming offseason. The interview, which serves as an addendum for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook (if you've already purchased a copy, you'll be receiving the interview transcript in full, and of course you'll also get the entire interview included if you buy a copy from this point forward), covered a variety of topics, but today I'm going to focus on a particular portion of the conversation that lasted only a few seconds but may have provided one of the most compelling takeaways.

The Twins have a number of issues to tackle this offseason, but one pretty clearly rises above all others, and that's sorting out the Joe Mauer situation. The likely AL MVP and franchise cornerstone has just one year remaining on his current deal, and could become unaffordable to the Twins if he's able to venture into free agency next winter. I wrote a lengthy essay covering this topic for the Handbook, and ultimately concluded -- as I'm sure most fans have -- that working out a contract extension with Mauer during this offseason is absolutely imperative and should rank as Smith's No. 1 priority.

It was a topic that needed to be broached in the TwinsCentric interview, but Smith has been extremely tight-lipped when the matter of Mauer's contract has come up over the past few months. Seemingly realizing this, Bonnes was very cautious in approaching the subject during the interview, opening his line of questioning by saying, "I'm not sure how much I really want to get into this, but I want to ask a little bit about the Mauer extension." Smith quickly interjected, stating that Bonnes "may want to get into it deeply, but I'm not going to."

And so, John rerouted. "Well, let me ask one question that's not really about the contract," he said. "If an extension doesn't get done by spring training, do you feel comfortable going into next year with Mauer as a walk-away free agent?"

"Well, he's a player signed through 2010," Smith retorted.

Bonnes pressed on. "But for instance, Santana was a player signed for the next year as well..."

Finally, Smith relented and answered the question. "If we think Joe Mauer wants to stay here long-term, yes, we feel very comfortable going into next year."

It could be that Smith responded in this manner only to avoid backing himself into any sort of corner. Still, "very comfortable"? I wrote extensively in my essay for the Handbook about the perils of entering next season without a new contract for Mauer. His impending free agency would serve as an extremely unwelcome distraction as the team tries to build positive public sentiment in Target Field's inaugural season. And, of course, if Mauer makes it to the end of the year without an extension, the New Yorks and Bostons of the world will be able to jump into the bidding, which could put the Twins in a highly precarious position.

So, if indeed the Twins feel that Mauer wants to stay here long-term, it's hard to imagine that they'd actually be comfortable entering next season without a new deal in place. Which brings us to the other question raised by Smith's comment: what if the Twins don't get the sense that Mauer wants to stay?

Being a rather timid St. Paul native with countless ties to this area, it seems highly unlikely that Mauer would be opposed to forging a long-term deal with the Twins. But I suppose it is possible that he has his sights set on the huge money and increased national exposure that would come along with a move to a larger market. Or perhaps he doesn't feel that the Twins will ever be willing to take the steps needed to win a championship. It was a combination of those factors that seemingly fueled Johan Santana's desire to move elsewhere.

If the Twins get the sense that Mauer would like to test the free agent market, one has to believe Smith would not be "very comfortable" at all entering the 2010 season saddled with the risk of losing his star catcher at the end of the year for only a pair of draft picks, and the general manager essentially admitted that fact by including that big old "if" in his answer.

Rational vs. Emotional

2009-10-21T00:00:00.004-05:00

At times, the two sides of one's brain conflict when contemplating a certain decision. In marketing, there's a great debate over whether customers are more likely to stick with the company that offers the lowest prices (rational) or the company that forms a deeper long-term connection by offering stronger customer service (emotional). For the record, things seem to be shifting in the latter direction.

Which, oddly enough, brings me to Orlando Cabrera. He's an impending free agent whom the Twins will need to make a decision on in the near future. The rational side of my brain tells me there's no way he should be brought back. He'll turn 35 in less than two weeks. He's shown clear signs of decline defensively (the former Gold Glover posted a horrendous -9.9 UZR this season and earned the nickname "Cabrerror" by committing 11 errors in 57 games with the Twins).. And his .313 on-base percentage was a major liability in the No. 2 hole, where Ron Gardenhire seems fully committed to playing the shortstop whenever he's in the lineup.

These are all major red flags for anyone looking at the game with an analytical mindset. Yet, there's something deep inside me that -- for whatever reason -- likes having Cabrera on this team. While I fully believe that the notions of clubhouse chemistry and clutchness and veteran leadership are overrated to a degree, it's not so easy to downplay the positive impact that Cabrera had on the team after being acquired at the trade deadline. Coaches praised his attitude, teammates credited him with helping them become more comfortable, and fans embraced his gritty play and determination. Even though he encompasses a number of qualities I dislike in a ballplayer -- namely, playing poor defense at an important position and failing to reach base at an adequate rate while batting at the top of the lineup -- I can't deny that I enjoyed watching Cabrera play. It also didn't hurt to finally get some power from a middle-infield spot; Cabrera slugged .430 while with the Twins, which certainly stands out for a club that hasn't received a slugging percentage over .400 from the shortstop position since 2001.

Ultimately, I caved in to the rational side of my brain and opined that the Twins should let Cabrera walk this offseason. But I can't say I'd be all that furious if the Twins let their emotional side win out and bring him back on a one-year deal.

My Offseason Blueprint

2009-10-20T00:00:00.002-05:00

The following is featured in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, and you can check out that document in order to see how I came up with the payroll figures and to read more about some of the names listed. But I thought I'd post this here to rev up the conversation about potential moves for the Twins this offseason. Agree? Disagree? What would you do?

***

1) Let free agents Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Joe Crede and Mike Redmond walk.

2) Re-sign free agent Carl Pavano for two years, $12M.
This might be a conservative estimate for what Pavano could command after he proved himself healthy and relatively effective during the 2009 season, but he did settle for only $1.5M plus incentives this past season so a two-year deal averaging $6M might be palatable, especially since he seemed to enjoy playing with the Twins. He adds much-needed veteran depth to the rotation and is a strike-thrower in Rick Anderson’s mold.

3) Reach arbitration agreements with Boof Bonser ($900K), Matt Guerrier ($2.8M), Francisco Liriano ($2M), Pat Neshek ($750K), Carlos Gomez ($1.5M) and Brendan Harris ($1.1M).
These are the median salary agreements we’ve estimated. They might be a little conservative or aggressive in some cases, but for the most part this should give an idea of what to expect.

4) Non-tender Jesse Crain.
Crain recovered from some early struggles to come back strong late in the season, but he will be expensive in arbitration and is the odd man out in a suddenly crowded bullpen picture.

5) Trade Delmon Young for prospects.

Young’s big late-season offensive push may have upped his value, making this the perfect time to deal. I’m not convinced the power he flashed over the final weeks of the season is for real,
and the Twins need to settle on three outfielders so they don’t have the same playing time issues next year. See what you can get for Young and cut ties.

6) Trade pitchers Glen Perkins and David Bromberg to Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.
Perkins had a rough year but maintains value as a young left-handed starter with major-league experience and a strong minor-league track record. Bromberg is one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects who finished the 2009 season in Single-A. It’s a steep price, but Hardy’s young and arbitration eligible so he won’t come cheap even coming off a down year.

7) Sign free agent second baseman Placido Polanco for two years, $9M.
Unlike shortstop, the free agent market for second basemen is deep this year so players won’t have a ridiculous amount of leverage. Polanco is 34 so he’d likely have to settle for a short-term commitment, and he’s a great contact hitter with a sterling defensive reputation who Ron Gardenhire would love to throw at second base and in the two-spot in the order.

8) Sign Mike Sweeney for one year, $1M.
Sweeney signed a minor-league deal with the Mariners last year where he enjoyed a solid season, and says he wants to return for another year. He seems like a good fit with the Twins, where he can take some DH at-bats against lefties, spell Justin Morneau at first on occasion and serve as a pinch-hitter.

9) Give Joe Mauer eight-year, $150M extension.
The same deal mentioned in my essay earlier in this book. The deal wipes away the 2009 season of Mauer’s current contract and starts anew. The annual salary is a shade under $20M, which is less than he’d be able to get in free agency, but the hope is that the security and comfort provided by the length of the deal sway Mauer.

2010 Opening Day 25-Man Roster:

STARTING LINEUP

C: Joe Mauer ($16M)
1B: Justin Morneau ($14M)
2B: Placido Polanco ($4.5M)
3B: Brendan Harris ($1.1M)
SS: J.J. Hardy ($5.5M)
LF: Denard Span ($450K)
CF: Carlos Gomez ($1.5M)
RF: Michael Cuddyer ($8.5M)
DH: Jason Kubel ($4.1M)

(Approx $54M)

BENCH

C: Jose Morales ($450K)
IF: Mike Sweeney ($1M)
IF: Nick Punto ($4M)
OF: Jason Pridie ($450K)

(Approx $6M)

ROTATION

SP: Scott Baker ($3M)
SP: Carl Pavano ($6M)
SP: Kevin Slowey ($450K)
SP: Francisco Liriano ($2M)
SP: Nick Blackburn ($450K)

(Approx $12M)

BULLPEN

CL: Joe Nathan ($11.25M)
RP: Matt Guerrier ($2.8M)
RP: Jon Rauch ($2.9M)
RP: Jose Mijares ($450K)
RP: Pat Neshek ($750K)
RP: Boof Bonser ($900K)
RP: Brian Duensing ($450K)

(Approx $19.5M)

TOTAL 2010 PAYROLL: $91.5M

SUMMARY:
The payroll rises drastically, by about $20 million. Arbitration raises, along with Mauer’s new contract, have taken their toll, and you’ve got to pay to upgrade the paltry production in the infield. While this is a major payroll leap, the Twins seemed headed for a $90 million payroll around this time back in 2007, at which point they boasted a $71M payroll after having increased spending for three straight years. Twelve major-league teams had a payroll over $90 million in 2009, and with their brand-new stadium the Twins should be joining that upper half in spending.

This lineup has the potential to be a significant improvement over the 2009 unit, but much depends on Hardy bouncing back. That’s a better gamble than getting adequate regular production from Punto or Alexi Casilla (who opens the season in the minors). People surely won’t be excited about the prospect of Harris and Punto splitting time at third, but the upgrades in the middle-infield should offset this and hopefully Danny Valencia will be ready to take over at some point during the season. Jason Pridie serves as a defensive replacement and pinch runner while Punto returns to his super sub role. The bullpen features three or four reliable late-inning guys (depending on how Neshek looks); Bonser and Duensing are available for long relief and are potential options to step into the rotation should anyone stumble or get hurt.

A Po$itive Trend

2009-10-16T00:00:00.004-05:00

We were led to believe that the Twins would ramp up spending in the years leading up to the opening of Target Field, but that hasn't exactly been the case. After having their payroll peak at $71 million in 2007 (the year after the stadium was officially approved), the Twins saw that figure drop to $56 million in '08 and then rise modestly to about $65 million on Opening Day this year.

The gradual budget incline hasn't happened as we might have expected, but that doesn't mean the Twins aren't showing signs that they'll be willing to open up to the wallet a bit more as they prepare for the big revenue boost provided by their new stadium. There are examples everywhere you look. That $65M opening-day budget has risen rather dramatically over the course of this season through the additions of Orlando Cabrera, Carl Pavano, Ron Mahay and Jon Rauch. In the case of Rauch, the Twins even took on several million dollars in extra salary for next season, which is rather uncharacteristic of them. The team also splurged big on the international market for the first time I can remember, snatching up the top Dominican prospect with a bonus exceeding $3 million while also tabbing a handful of other spendy high-profile foreign teenagers. Beyond all that, the Twins went well over-slot to get their first-round draft pick, Kyle Gibson, signed. Add it all up and we see a very positive trend as we move forward into the new era of Twins baseball -- this team is willing to spend.

In his well-written article previewing the Twins' offseason for the Star Tribune on Tuesday, Joe Christensen surmised that, without taking on any additional salary or re-signing any eligible free agents, the Twins' payroll will bump up to about $78 million next year. John Bonnes, who was a bit more conservative in his arbitration estimates, has that number closer to $75 million. Either way, you're looking at an increase of $10 million or more in payroll without any offseason maneuvering. If we start factoring in contract renewals for guys like Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano or an extension for Joe Mauer that would increase his 2010 earnings, that payroll increase just continues to escalate. Even with projected revenue increases of around $25 million in the new stadium, one can hardly expect payroll to suddenly rocket past $100 million. The space for free agent signings and added salary via trade may somewhat limited, even though the team has begun showing an increased willingness to spend.

This will be something to keep in mind as we launch into the offseason discussion. Undoubtedly we'll get started on that next week. Of course, you can get a jump-start here...

Following Up on Tuesday's Post

2009-10-15T00:00:00.004-05:00

I expected that my post on Tuesday would be controversial. Any time one complains about the nature of Major League Baseball's uneven payroll structure, there are bound to be numerous dissenters. What I didn't expect was that Rob Neyer would feature the post on his blog and send a swarm of peeved Yankees fans over here to spout their disapproval.

Of course I'm glad that Neyer saw fit to bring up the discussion over at this SweetSpot blog, and it was nice to see some outsiders voicing their opinions in the comments section here, even if the majority of those opinions basically boiled down to me being a whiny, know-nothing moron from a fly-over state (I <3 NY!).

What disappoints me is that many of these people seemed to miss the central point of the original post. Perhaps that's my fault for not clearly conveying that point. With that in mind, there are a couple key aspects of argument that I'd like to re-emphasize today:

1) This is NOT just about the Twins and Yankees.

I used the Twins and Yankees as examples because I had just gotten done watching a three-game playoff sweep in which the Yankees threw three starting pitchers who made a combined $36 million this year (compared to three Twins' pitchers who made less than $5 million combined) while sporting a lineup whose 2-through-4 hitters earned a combined $72 million -- more than the Twins' entire payroll.

The general sentiment from Yanks fans seemed to be that I was unfairly singling out the Yankees and/or pouting because my team had just lost. Neither of those things were true.

The Yankees are the most prominent example of baseball's imbalanced financial field, given that their payroll is 33 percent higher than any other team, but the same issues apply to any large-market team that holds a marked advantage when it comes to signing free agents, internal players, draft picks or international talent. For the most part, the revenue advantages of these free-spending teams are far more correlated with the size of their market than the quality of their fans or the devotion of their ownership. It's simply unfair that they should be rewarded with a substantial competitive advantage as a result of where they play.

And this isn't whining. I fully expected the Twins to lose, and they lost. I was frustrated when the Yankees bought three of the top free agents last offseason, I was frustrated watching them win 103 games this season largely as a result of that spending spree, and I was frustrated watching them pound an understandably less stacked team in the first-round of the playoffs. My ranting post was the culmination of plenty of pent-up annoyance with baseball's current system, and the fact that it appeared in the aftermath of this playoff sweep is only because I deemed the timing appropriate.

In truth, the Twins probably aren't the greatest example to illustrate my argument, given that they've enjoyed relative success over the past eight years and could have probably defeated the Yankees in this series if not for some bad breaks and terrible baserunning blunders (which our friends from out east were so eager to point out -- repeatedly). But don't tell me that this team would not be in far better shape if they had an extra $100 million in payroll to throw around. Which brings me to my next point:

2) Higher payroll does not guarantee success, but there is no denying that it provides a distinct inherent advantage.

I can't believe how much energy some people spent trying to produce evidence proving that the Yankees' giant payroll doesn't actually provide them with a meaningful advantage. It is not debatable. If spending more did not make a team better and increase its chances of winning, then the Yankees would not run up a $200 million payroll, and other large-market teams wouldn't spend well over $100 million to assemble their rosters. No one has ever claimed that spending a certain amount of money guarantees wins or World Series titles -- and the Yankees have proven that over the past decade -- but there's no question that having the ability to employ significantly more high-paid players provides an advantage. The best players eventually command the most money, and while baseball's system does keep all players relatively inexpensive in their early years, it's damn near impossible to have a roster stacked full of superstars who haven't yet hit arbitration or free agency. It is not, however, hard to have a roster stacked full of superstars when you can flex a $150-$200 million budget.

One can debate how much of an advantage is gained by perpetually sporting a payroll that is more than twice the size of your opponents, but it's simply ignorant to try and argue that this isn't an advantage.

3. This argument should not have anything to do with the Pohlads.

Many, many people pointed out that the Twins' ownership is one of the wealthiest in sports, and that if they really wanted to they could outspend the Yankees in payroll outright, paying for Target Field in its entirety and bailing out the automobile industry while they're at it. But, in the same breath, many of these same people were quick to argue that baseball is a business.

Don't those two statements run somewhat contradictory to one another? If baseball truly is a business, how could anyone expect an owner to put more into their product than they're getting out of it? Look, I was never a big fan of Carl Pohlad and by no means was as a defense of him or the way he operated this franchise. But it's perfectly fair to expect a team in a smaller market's expenses to be commensurate with its revenue, regardless of the owner's worth, and it's also worth noting that most owners of small-market clubs don't have as much money as the Pohlads, which brings me back to my initial point: this ain't about the Twins. It's about baseball, and all of its overshadowed and unfairly disadvantaged small-market clubs.

To close today's post, I would like to highlight two examples from Tuesday's 50-comment maelstrom which I felt most thoughtfully and eloquently supported the two sides of this debate.

The first, which falls into the anti-cap category, comes from an anonymous commenter:

The beauty of baseball is that the very best teams (regardless of payroll) end up playing .630 ball, and they end up playing a bunch of .530 - .600 teams in the playoffs. Unlike the NBA or the NFL, the best teams don't make it to the championship series every year simply because their advantage of the other teams in the playoffs is marginal, and baseball is a game of funny bounces.

Yankees / Twins was hardly a walkover, and it ultimately came down to the Twins making Little League baserunning mistakes and their $11 million closer spitting the bit. Yes, the Yankees had a better team top to bottom and a larger margin for error, but just by the nature of baseball the lesser team had a legitimate chance to win.

In the big picture, MLB wants NY, Boston, LA, etc. to have the very best teams. Successful teams in the largest, most affluent markets = maximum ticketing, concessions, merchandising, TV, and radio revenue + greater global branding opportunities. Common business sense says you probably want 20 million happy fans in New York than 1 million in Kansas City.

But for those niche markets, devise the "AL Central" and "NL Central" where you let a less talented team with a worse record into the playoffs every year. That way, every fan can dream every spring.

But make sure you institute a "Wild Card" so that you get an extra large market team into the playoffs every year while giving niche market teams another hope to grab onto.

The only way to guarantee that this works and to maximize MLB revenues is to make sure you DON'T have a salary cap. What's wrong with that?

The second comes from Bill Lindeke, who probably did a better job of summarizing my argument than I did in one long-winded post and several meandering rebuttals in the comments section:

Nick... I'm a long-time reader of your blog. I fail to understand why people aren't getting your rather obvious point. I suppose the ideology of fandom is that owners are philanthropists, paying players out of personal or civic pride.

The fact is that, unlike other pro sports, baseball has a very imbalanced financial landscape. The reason Yankees fans are so annoying is that they (willfully) blind themselves to this fact.

We all see what we want to see, but the massive payroll discrepancies in baseball are a crying shame. The vast majority of teams have no real shot at winning in the playoffs most years. The fact that baseball still manages to keep a semblance of competitiveness is a testament to the inherent strength and beauty of the game.

(Incidentally. the same argument about inequality would hold true for the Mets or Cubs even though they're consistently mediocre. If all the big-market teams had decent management, baseball's uneven playing field would be truly intolerable, condemning Pittsburgh, K.C., Baltimore, and the rest to lifetimes of baseball purgatory.)

And, just for good measure, I'll republish this doozy, which I think portrays me very accurately:

awwwwww, boo hoo hoo. I'm a sad sack twins fan named Nick who cant seem to understand baseball economics and the idea of "fair" are not a mutual concept. I guess the twins should have just not even showed up bc I mean it was such a foregone conclusion that the big bad yankees would beat them and not even have to swing the bat. The yanks just show up and teams tremble at their massive salaries and just give up. boo hoo hoo. In the words of a great comic book master.....WORST.....BLOG....EVER.

Overreactions

2009-10-14T00:00:00.001-05:00

Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse had an article in yesterday's paper laying out his offseason plan for the recently eliminated Twins. The first two steps on his list (both plastered on the title of the column): Trading Joe Nathan, demoting Carlos Gomez.

My problem with Reusse's suggestions isn't so much that they are unreasonable; one can make an argument that this is the right time to move Nathan and it's certainly fair to say that Gomez needs some more time in Triple-A. My problem is that I fully believe Reusse -- like many other Twins fans -- is basing his current convictions on the small sample size provided by the past week's playoff series against the Yankees. Had Gomez batted .400 and made a game-saving catch during the series, or had Nathan pitched lights-out in his two appearances, I sincerely doubt we'd be seeing the columnist clamoring for their dismissal from Minnesota. That's not a good way to make personnel decisions.

Many people are frustrated with the handful of players who are perceived to be heavily responsible to the Twins' defeat. In particular, I've seen plenty of folks directing vitriol at Nathan, and the "Trade Nathan" bandwagon seems to be gaining steam on numerous fronts. But it's important to keep in mind how heavily the deck was stacked against the Twins and many of their players in this series. Yes, Nathan blew an opportunity for the Twins to even the series on Friday night by blowing a two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. But it's not like he gave up a walk-off grand slam to David Eckstein. Nathan was facing the heart of baseball's best lineup in a hostile stadium. He walked one of the league's elite offensive players -- a likely top three MVP finisher -- and then gave up a home run to one of the most accomplished hitters in baseball history. It was tough, but it happens, and Nathan was hardly the only closer to struggle in the first round of this postseason.

It sort of astonishes me that this unfortunate turn of events has so quickly caused fans to sour on a guy who turned in a 2.10 ERA and 11.7 K/9 rate while notching 47 saves this season. Are people really forgetting that there was a stretch this year where Nathan went 24 straight appearances without allowing a run? That he was the steady rock for much of the year in an often erratic bullpen? He seemed to wear down at the end of the year, yes, but Nathan can still pitch and his contributions this season were absolutely elemental to the team's success. He remains one of the game's very best closers in spite of some rough patches against an offensive juggernaut in New York.

Laughably, Reusse's candidates for replacing Nathan are Jose Mijares -- who was playing over his head for much of the year and who looked worse than almost any Twins reliever over the final week -- and Pat Neshek -- who hasn't thrown a pitch since early 2008. If Twins fans are annoyed now by having a mostly dominant closer who gives up a couple runs every now and then, I hate to think how they'd react to the number of ninth-inning leads that would slip away under that inferior pairing. It's almost like we've become spoiled around these parts; Nathan has been so good for much of the year that any team he gives up a lead it gets blown wildly out of proportion. An outside observer would have no trouble noticing that Nathan was one of the very best in the league this year at converting slim ninth-inning leads into victories, just like he has been in past years. It is unfortunate that a couple of his rare misfires had to come at such inopportune times, but no pitcher is perfect.

The Twins have performed terribly in the postseason ever since 2003. This understandably causes fans to grow exceptionally frustrated when they are forced to suffer through another quick first-round exit. But understand that while Nathan did blow that Game 2 save and subsequently allow a couple crucial insurance runs across in Game 3, he was facing a powerhouse offense that any pitcher is liable to get nailed by. Understand that while Gomez struggled at the plate and made a costly baserunning error, he was just a kid who'd barely played over the past month, in over his head on the biggest of stages and in the harshest of environments. Understand that while Jason Kubel looked completely overwhelmed at the plate in this series, he drew unfavorable starts against two tough left-handed pitchers along with one of the league's best right-handed strikeout pitchers. That while Nick Punto committed a rather inexcusable error on the basepaths, he had been a key contributor over the rest of the series.

There's a tendency to dwell on the negatives at a time like this, but the Twins did hold their own in that series, largely thanks to some stellar contributions from Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. The challenges those players faced should only be magnified by the struggles experienced by some of their teammates, and those strong performances should not be forgotten.

The time will come during this offseason to make many important decisions about the future of this ballclub. But don't let the disappointing outcome of a three-game series shade your viewpoint on these decisions too much.

Baseball's Crooked Playing Field

2009-10-13T00:00:00.002-05:00

A week ago, the Twins and Tigers played out their respective regular seasons in a thrilling 12-inning tiebreaker at the Metrodome that ultimately ended in a walk-off victory for the Twins. The historical contest was everything a baseball game should be: two evenly matched teams battling one another to the bitter end in a high-stakes, must-win affair. Both the Twins and Tigers had their own sets of strengths and flaws, forcing each team's manager to engage in a lengthy chess match in an effort to work around his roster's weaknesses and put his best players in position to step up and deliver.

The Yankees/Twins ALDS match-up was a different story entirely. The Twins were severely overmatched from the start in this series, because the Yankees are a far, far better team. And that's not because their roster is more smartly assembled or because they are a more well-coached group of players. It's because a nearly unlimited payroll has allowed them to construct what is essentially an All-Star team. Each player in the Yankees lineup is a quality hitter and a legitimate home run threat. Their pitching staff is star-studded. Their bullpen is lethal.

But it's not difficult to see why this Yankees team is so dominant. Just look at who New York's big contributors were in this ALDS series. In Game 1, the Yankees received a dominant start from C.C. Sabathia, who they purchased for $161 million during the offseason. In Game 2, they got another strong start from A.J. Burnett, another spendy offseason rotation addition. That game ended when Mark Teixeira, their $180 million first base acquisition from the past winter, hit a walk-off homer. And the Yankees' biggest offensive game-changer throughout the entire series, Alex Rodriguez, is an admitted steroid user who made $32 million this season. In the end, the Yankees beat up on a far lesser team and got exactly what they paid for during the offseason: a trip to the ALCS with a World Series berth likely to follow. As we are all surely aware (especially after listening to the TBS announcers ogle over them for the entirety of the series), the Yankees are a great team. But, is that really anything for them or their fans to be proud of?

Major League Baseball's failure to create a remotely even playing field is rather egregious, and I think it's pretty sad that at this point it is widely accepted. The Yankees' $201 million payroll is about 33 percent higher than that of the next closest team -- the Mets -- and more than three times that of the Twins.

Whereas focusing their funds in certain areas forces small/medium-market teams to live with weaknesses in other areas, the Yankees are able to spend at will, filling nearly every position with star-caliber players. Whereas small/medium-market teams necessarily must occasionally let in-house talent walk when it gets too expensive, the Yankees are able to retain any player they want to (imagine how differently this series may have shaken out if the Twins still had Torii Hunter and Johan Santana). Whereas small/medium-market teams must build by drafting wisely and uncovering hidden gems on the interational scene, the Yankees are able to flex their financial muscles by plucking prospects whose signing bonus demands put lower-payroll teams out of the picture and by throwing heaps of cash at all the top international talent.

MLB has taken measures to keep big-market teams from gaining too large an advantage over their smaller-market counterparts, but these efforts have fallen laughably short. Without a draft slotting system, an international draft or a salary cap (or at least a luxury tax system that actually gets meaningful results), the big-market teams have pulled away and gained a massive competitive edge. The Yankees are making a mockery out of baseball's system by piling up a $200 million payroll and buying up all the top players on the free agent market.

Obviously, having a massive payroll does not automatically ensure outstanding results. The Mets ranked second in the majors in team payroll this year and were miserable. The Yankees, prior to this ALDS sweep, hadn't won a postseason series since 2004. People point to the fact that baseball has crowned eight different World Champs in the past nine years as some sort of proof that the system is sound and that the league features plenty of parity, but there is no denying that being able to outspend your opponent threefold provides a massive inherent competitive edge. That's just not right.

The Twins have overcome their budget constraints and have enjoyed more sustained success than almost any other small/medium-market team over the past decade or so. They have consistently posted winning records, they've made the playoffs five times in the past eight years, and they gave the Yankees a run for their money in this most recent ALDS series. But the fact remains that the Twins went 0-10 against the Yankees this year and were outhomered 6-0 by New York's cash-soaked lineup during this past series. People look at the Twins' epic struggles against the Yankees over the past eight years or so -- particularly in New York and in the postseason -- and they talk about how the Twins are mesmerized by the Yankee mystique. I'm not sure I buy that. The Twins are just consistently getting beat up on by much better teams. The Yankees don't make the same type of fundamental errors as the Twins in these games because they have better players. That's what money buys you.

As a fan of the Twins, I feel the burden of this remarkable payroll disadvantage, so I can't even imagine how much heavier that burden must weigh for fans of teams like the Royals and Marlins, who've not been lucky enough to escape from the doldrums.

The token response to these complaints is that life isn't fair. Well, baseball isn't life, it's a game. And it sure as hell ought to be fair.

Quick and Painful

2009-10-12T00:00:00.002-05:00

It was tough watching the Twins trudge dejectedly off the field after last night's 4-1 loss, which completed an ALDS sweep for the Yankees and officially ended the Twins' 2009 season. Not just because the Twins lost the series -- I expected that. And not even because they failed to win a single game -- I pretty much expected that.

It was tough because the Twins gave themselves enough opportunities to make a series out of it. Much like their three-game set in New York during the regular season, the Twins were swept in this series but hardly laid down for the Evil Empire. After being soundly defeated in a first game on Wednesday that hardly anyone could have expected them to win, the Twins pitched well enough and collected enough hits to take both of the next two games. But given the inherent disadvantages the Twins faced in this series, they stood no chance of overcoming the Yankees with all of their terrible baserunning blunders, the brutal work from their seemingly depleted closer, and their complete lack of execution with runners aboard (32 runners stranded over the three games). We can talk all we want about Phil Cuzzi's unspeakably horrendous call on the left field line on Friday night, but the fact is that the Twins are ultimately responsible the fate that fell upon them. I do wonder if having had their repeated fundamental lapses on display for the entire nation over the past week or so will put a dent in the commonly held notion that the Twins are a sound fundamental team that does all of the little things.

I'm disappointed by this outcome but not at all surprised, and given the spectacular end to the regular season I do feel like this 2009 Twins team gave me my money's worth. I'll have further analysis of this series and of the Twins' season as a whole over the remainder of the week, so be sure to check back. Within the next few weeks I'll also start diving into discussion of issues facing the team during the offseason. You can get a jump start on that conversation now, though, with the perfect offseason companion, which I invite you to read about below.

***

Back in July, I joined forces with John Bonnes (the Twins Geek), Parker Hageman and Seth Stohs to develop an eBook called the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer. This was very much an experimental project, but the results were encouraging. The product generated a lot of good buzz and I'm extremely appreciative of everyone who bought a copy or supported our efforts in any way. But there were two central problems with the Deadline Primer. The first was that neither me or my TwinsCentric partners had much experience with designing and marketing something like this so there were a number of rough patches. The second -- and more troubling -- issue was that the Twins simply don't have a history of being real active at the trade deadline, so people had a hard time getting excited and shelling out money for an extensive write-up on the topic.

That second issue was one we had foreseen, and unsurprisingly it was one of the main areas of negative feedback we received. It was completely understandable. That's why I'm extremely excited about our newest venture, the TwinsCentric 2009-10 Offseason GM Handbook. Not only does this book cover a lengthier period of time where the Twins are much more likely to be highly active participants, but the product itself is built around a unique and fun concept that I think people will really enjoy.

The basic premise of the GM Handbook is that rather than simply providing an outlook for the next several months while predicting what Bill Smith and the Twins will probably do or what we ourselves would do, it actually puts you as the reader in the position of general manager. You are provided with a schedule of key offseason dates, a comprehensive breakdown of the team's payroll outlook, an incredibly thorough organizational depth chart, a listing of arbitration-eligible players, a collection of potential trade candidates, an overview of the entire free agent market position-by-position, and a whole lot more. With all this information at hand, you can either draw your own conclusions about the direction that the front office will take or you can create a personalized offseason blueprint. How would you fix the problems facing this team as they move forward into a new stadium while remaining within a reasonable budget? This book gives you all the information you'll need to come up with your answers, rounded out by plenty of opinion and analysis from us dopes.

Smith and the Twins have a tough task ahead of them over the next few months. If you're not content to sit back and see what they do, perhaps you'd like to formulate your own ideas. The GM Handbook provides an excellent resource for this endeavor, and of course picking up a copy will provide some much-appreciated support for your local Twins bloggers. If you'd like a sneak peek, you can download a free 61-page preview (a little over one-third of the book) at the TwinsCentric website.

Thanks to everyone for your support this year, and I look forward to continuing the discussions and debate throughout the offseason.

Time To Regroup

2009-10-10T00:00:00.001-05:00

For a multitude of reasons, last night's game was absolutely one of the worst I can remember watching. Joe Nathan chokes away a two-run ninth inning lead, Carlos Gomez makes an unbelievably stupid baserunning error, the offense strands 17 baserunners, and an umpire makes one of the most inexcusably awful calls I have ever seen in a baseball game.

The Twins had every chance to sneak out of New York with a win, but they continually threw away opportunities, repeatedly handing breaks to a team that already holds just about every imaginable advantage in this playoff series.

As I tweeted in the wake of this disheartening loss: "Tuesday's game reminded me of everything I love about baseball. This series is reminding me of everything I hate about it."

All the Twins can do now is regroup and hope to win one back in their home park on Sunday. That won't be easy, as I'm sure this loss stings worse than any most of these guys have experienced.

I'll finish by repeating the front-page headline on FoxSports.com after the game, which accompanied a photo of Mark Teixeira: "Simply Clutch." Yeah, that must be it.

ALDS Game 2 Preview: Twins @ Yankees

2009-10-09T00:00:00.001-05:00

Physically worn down and emotionally exhausted after having arrived in New York at 4 a.m. the previous night in the wake of their spectacular regular-season finale against the Tigers, the Twins went into Yankee Stadium on Wednesday evening and were predictably served a beat-down in Game 1 of this ALDS Series. Despite the momentum they've gained over the past few weeks, it was tough to imagine the Twins finding a way to hang with the Yankees in that game considering all the factors playing against them, from the aforementioned fatigue to the lopsided pitching match-up to the hostile environment.

The Twins will enter Game 2 tonight facing slightly less disadvantageous circumstances. They've had a full day to rest and recuperate. Rather than sending out Brian Duensing, owner of nine career major-league starts entering this postseason, the Twins will bring Nick Blackburn, who has established a reputation as a big-game pitcher. The Twins will also be facing the erratic A.J. Burnett rather than dominating lefty C.C. Sabathia.

Of course, the Yankees still hold a considerable edge entering tonight's game. It's still being played in their home park. They still have a far superior lineup and a far superior bullpen. The pitching match-up still favors them, because despite the fact that he leads the league in walks and wild pitches, Burnett has notched 195 strikeouts in 207 innings this season while holding opponents to a .247 average. The Twins' starter, meanwhile, could have some problems on his hands.

Blackburn was lights-out for the Twins down the final stretch, posting a 1.65 ERA and 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his final four starts, all Twins victories. With his outstanding performances in must-win contests against the Tigers and Royals during the final week of the season, he's a huge part of the reason the Twins find themselves playing right now. But Blackburn remains a contact pitcher with a middling ground ball rate, and over the course of his career he has been a much worse pitcher on the road than under the Metrodome roof. He held his own in a start at Yankee Stadium earlier this year, allowing four runs over 7 2/3 innings, but this is a lineup that could give him some real problems. He gave up more hits this year than any other AL pitcher and these Yankees hitters tend to punish guys that pitch to contact, as evidenced by their .307/.361/.521 hitting line against finesse pitchers (defined as pitchers who strike out or walk less than 24 percent of batters faced, which is certainly a category that Blackburn falls into).

Blackburn is already gaining legendary status in Minnesota as a guy who steps up and delivers on the big stage, but the deck is really stacked against him tonight. He'll need to be on top of his game and commanding his cutter with expert precision in order to suppress this powerful New York lineup, and in a packed Yankee Stadium that will be a tall task indeed.

Burnett is a fireballer with filthy stuff but he is beatable. The Twins will likely need to push several runs across to defeat this offense in their home park, so we can only hope they're up to the challenge. Obviously, this is a game they'd really like to win because coming home down 2-0 and on the brink of elimination would be a dreadfully dire situation.