Betdaq & Betfair Racing Trader - £1k-£100k

For the record

2009-02-05T08:04:00.000-08:00

Week 51 - Crack open the champagne!

2008-12-19T09:04:00.000-08:00

Well it's done. I have finally made it past the finish post. This week was just fine and I comfortably made the required amount of £120 without too much bother. What a great feeling it is to have completed the mission. The year has flown by! It just goes to show you that with the right tools and advice it is still possible to achieve good results.

I know some old time traders pour scorn and say it's no longer possible but I hope this has given everybody renewed vigour in their quest to make it pay. If you are focused and know what you are doing, it is possible. I wouldn't say that this suits everybody and some people just wont have the skills or mindset required, but it's certainly a great opportunity. Give it a try, I don't think we have seen the end of this opportunity just yet!

So there you have it, from a starting bank of £1000, or £2000 if you count the top up I needed to use stakes of £1000, I have lifted that to 100 times the starting amount in just under a year. I've prepared the deposit and withdrawal information from Betfair and scanned the first cheque I drew down of £50k. I'll need a little more time to get to £100k net of the premium charge but when that is complete in a couple of weeks time I'll post up that cheque of £50k as well. That should round off the challenge nicely. I'll be trading next week apart from the two days where there is no racing, but I probably won't bother posting the results now that the challenge is complete. Over the Christmas break I'll think about what to do for next year.

As for the £100k I now need to decide what to do with it. Any suggestions, sensible or daft, welcome. I had hoped to put more money into the market, but with my current trading style that seems impossible.

Have great Christmas everybody and thanks for your support throughout the year!

Week 50 - Agonisingly short

2008-12-17T01:33:00.000-08:00

I tried really hard last week to finish things off but, mainly thanks to the weather, I fell just short. In fact it was agonisingly short, only £119! So by the time you read this I should have succeeded in going past my target in the first few days of week 51. I'll be able to confirm next week.

It's Just as well as there is only really one week left in the year. In week 52 there is a full card on Monday, not much on Tuesday, then it's the Christmas break so no chance to trade then. I'll be looking to keep my nose clean in week 51 and not make any serious mistakes. If I do that I'll be able to report 'task complete' next week.

Week 49 - Tough

2008-12-11T12:34:00.000-08:00

How I wish I could have blasted through my target this week. It looks like it's going to drag into the Christmas period. Week 50 isn't looking great either! I hope I am not losing it just before the finish line.

I emailed Betfair and got them to confirm my deposits and withdrawals so that's all tidied up. I have the screenshots as well as the confirmation spreadsheet from Betfair. I also found my scan of the first withdrawal that I did on my account in the middle of the year. All I need to do now is wait for the total to rise a bit and then I can do the last withdrawal on the account for this challenge.

I did bump into a problem this week that I hadn't considered. The screenshots you see each week are the totals taken by looking at the 'betting profit and loss' section on my Betfair account. This total includes comission but not the premium charge! As a result my gross profit for the year will, errr.. should, go past the £100k mark but my net profit probably will not. I hadn't thought of that! For the sake of completeness I'll declare it a success on a gross level but continue to trade for a bit to reach £100k net. At that point I can draw down the last £50k, well that's the plan anyway.

Week 48 - Inching closer

2008-12-02T08:38:00.000-08:00

Another step closer to the £100k, but this week was a struggle and required a lot of effort. I am moving forward nicely and still on target before the year ends.

I've been thinking about how to close out the total. I posted up early on the amount deposited to Betfair and the method used, so I think I've come up with a way to round things off. I am sure if I email Betfair they will be able to confirm all deposits and withdrawals from the account. When I reach the total I will draw down the remaining amount to £100k and put the details up on the blog for you all to see. I think that's a neat way to close out the blog.

At the moment it looks like my reach for the final total will drag into Christmas so I may not be able to pull all the stuff together till early in the new year. The reason, I'll draw the last payment from Betfair by cheque so I can copy and put that up here for you.

I am still pondering what to do for next year. I'll trade for sure, but I need to think of something more original than the current blog in my opinion.

Week 47 - So, so close now......

2008-11-25T01:38:00.000-08:00

That week felt like I was much more in control of things and I've added another step towards the £100k. I am just £6k short of the magical amount now and there are only five weeks left in the year. I need an average of £1.2k a week to breech my target inside the year.

The year has flown by and I am already starting to think about what I do next, any ideas are welcome! I think it interesting to see the sort of comments that have appeared on the blog over the year. Some people are very encouraging whereas some are downright rude! There is also quite a lot of scepticism as well. That's a shame, as I am very grateful for the opportunity to have a crack at achieving the £100k and very humbled by the support and advice I have been given to achieve this.

I think you should be reflective when you look at the numbers I have been achieving. In total they look great but in fact they are made up from lots of little bits. I've 'gambled' on many many thousands of races this year to get this far and it seems to me that if you are prepared to put in the effort it's not impossible to get something out of these markets. Even if you average £1 a race, I think there are probably somewhere in the region of 10,000 races a year, so it doesn't take a massive leap of imagination to get even a small total.

I hope I have a couple of good weeks to take the pressure off else I'll be trading over Christmas to reach the total. Wish me luck!

Week 46 - Yuck!

2008-11-25T01:35:00.001-08:00

That was the toughest week for some time. On the Tuesday I had a difficult day and even resorted to trading on the dogs to top up a pretty poor total for the day. I didn't really have any luck, things never went my way, the racing was poor quality and the weather was rubbish. Other than that a good week! I hope I see a return to form next week.

Week 44/45 - Slow but steady

2008-11-12T14:46:00.000-08:00

Please excuse the lack of an update. With the early finish to the racing I have been catching up on my social life a bit and showing people I also do things other than sit behind computer all day watching the horse racing!

To be honest, there hasn't been a great deal to talk about also. Things are bumping along without any drama's and the racing is now settled into the winter pattern so, even without weather interruptions, things are slower now any how. The last two weeks are above my the target total I need, so things are looking good.

So far this week thoug, it's been a mare. With the Betfair API problems being the main cause of this. I suspect I will post a very low total next week with the majority of the results reliant on results towards the end of the week. Good luck out there, it's been a tough week.

Week 43 - Race to the finish

2008-10-31T11:38:00.000-07:00

A steady but unspectacular week last week and things seems to progressing well. If I can manage an average of £1.5k per week I will hit the £100k before the year is out, way ahead of where I expected to be. I am really focused on trying to get there. I guess that over the year I have really found my feet and confidence! I am still a little nervous about my new strategy but it does seem to be working and I am more at ease about it. I haven't experienced any major set backs with holding positions for longer at the moment. I am waiting for that moment though! For meantime I'll actively choose to take on more risk.

Week 42 - Risk and reward

2008-10-24T07:06:00.001-07:00

Something curious has happened to my trading. It was an accident as well I will admit. When the premium charge came into being I decided to try and trade off elements and create some arb type positions to improve my commission paid. That didn't really work but what I noticed was that by using larger stakes and holding positions in the market for longer I was getting filled a lot more than using my old style of trading.That didn't work all the time though and sometimes it would move against me. But overall the positive values outweighed the negatives.

Getting used to using the larger stakes also gave me the confidence to raise stakes and to my surprise using those larger stakes I am doing better. Using bigger stakes and waiting for fills has created very rocky profits though. Some days are very poor but other days are outstanding. The effect of all of this overall is to boost by weekly total. Its a slightly more hair raising way of doing things but remarkably it seems to be working. I will stick with this method for the time being.

I guess that I will have good weeks like this one, where things generally go in my favour, but I also expect I will have a shocker at some point. I think the reason it works is because I am taking more risk and therefore at the end of the week I am getting more reward. I don't need many good weeks now to end up hitting by total but I must admit I didn't think it would involve a change in strategy. I hope I am not making a mistake.

Bet Angel for Betdaq

2008-10-17T05:17:00.000-07:00

Bet Angel is available for Betdaq. You can register here http://www.betangel.com/main/betdaq.php

Year so far

2008-10-14T02:50:00.001-07:00

Week 41 - Objective set

2008-10-14T02:31:00.001-07:00

I've been looking at the numbers and after last week I am just over £80k for the year, less semi random Betfair charges in the last couple of weeks and going forward. So I am within touching distance of the £100k. With 11 weeks left in the year this means I need to hit around £1.5k a week to achieve my target in the year. I think that's a definite possibility, so that is what I will be aiming for. I'll push hard to get that and then I'll have to think about the next target.

I continued with the same tactic I had last week but it didn't work so well and that was a problem, but I am confident if I push on I should be ok. I am guessing things will be a bit quieter at this time of year. The races don't seem anywhere near the same quality suddenly so I am bracing myself for a lower totals, well that and the additional charges. What on earth are Betfair thinking about?!?!?! On that note I have started trading already on Betdaq and it's going well, the markets seems perfectly tradable, the volumes seem to be rising as well. Vive la revolution!

I think the interesting thing about the Betfair premium charge is that they are now taking a huge chunk of money off of me and what do I have in return? Oh, that'll be nothing sir, not even a statement of charges!

Week 40 - Back with a bang

2008-10-10T13:32:00.000-07:00

After a bit of a sabbatical to try and work out some new strategies I am back. I thought I would be clever and try and arb between Betdaq and Betfair to work up some commission points but something odd happened. When I put positions on, it turned out a lot of them moved into profit anyway in both directions. I quickly realised that by closing out and repeating I may add to my total and that's what happened. I also had another problem, I kept winning on Betfair and losing on Betdaq. This doesn't work now as Betfair will take 20% of my winnings despite the fact I am trying to rebalance the position. So I have abandoned that strategy. I squared off my positions on Betdaq and will have to go back to the drawing board.

So I've had a very lucky week but, of course, Betfair are going to take £1k for that. I am still astounded that they have introduced such a charge.

Week 38 - Excellent way to finish

2008-09-23T05:23:00.000-07:00

Well not finished as such but end of an era, with Betfair refusing to back down on the premium charge. I think this will force us to do several things, use other exchanges, fiddle with the commission we earn and also probably work harder to earn the same amount. I still think its very strange that any business can turn around to their most successful and most likely largest customers and say, 'Ok it's not fair that you are doing well, we want 22.5% of your earnings for no risk and nothing in return'. Quite simply one of the strangest business decisions I think you will ever see.

The excuse they have offered doesn't seem to stack up, unfortunately I don't think you will get any opposing views from an employee though, after all it's their job at risk. Betfair have said they need more money to recruit new customers, I've been told they just dropped their bounty for new referrals to £10 from £25. Therefore the new customer line doesn't appear to stack up with actions, will it just drop into increased profits? Out of principle I will aim to move as soon as the conditions are right. I just can't believe they have alienated their customer base so effectively. Also only 0.5% of customer being affected, I just can't see that. Maybe my view is distorted?

I'm taking next week off, gathering my thoughts and will return the following week. I can't believe that Betfair want £400 out of that total.

Week 37 - More like the norm

2008-09-16T08:33:00.000-07:00

After last week were I felt I couldn't put a foot wrong I returned to more mortal performance levels. In fact it was a little frustrating from time to time. Given the available racing, it wasn't a terrible performance. With the evening racing reverting to some all weather tracks I have got a bit of my life back. It's great to be able to go out in the evening again and the weathers looking up as well.As we exit the flat season and go into the jumps I am expecting future weeks to bounce around this level subject to what it is on and my general performance.

I am still pondering over the fact that from next week I would owe Betfair at least an additional £227 on this total. Sorry Betfair but your business proposition is just shot to bits, I thought you were an exchange?!?!?!? A lot of the time I ask for prices on the 'exchange' therefore I am adding liquidty to your model. I don't manipulate prices or take advantage of fast pictures or anything, I make a geniune contribition. You are telling me and plenty others to stick it and also adopting a model that is unlike any exchange I have ever seen. Does the new york stock exchange ask day traders to contribute if they make a profit? Such a thing would be totally absurd. If it really, truely, only affected 0.5% of your customers how come you didn't contact them individually. All I received was a bulk email into my inbox. 0.5% of customers, I don't think so!

While we await new tools we will have to stick with Betfair but I am starting to familiarise myself with Betdaq already. It looks like the odds increments are smaller there, that will impact how I trade. As soon as the tools start appearing then I will be spending at least some of my time on Betdaq while the whole site gets used to this mercurial shift in the market. Eventually I hope to be full time on Betdaq. As for next week I am quite tempted to not trade at all on Betfair, I sort of hope others will do the same.

Paddy Power advertisment

2008-09-10T10:59:00.000-07:00

Seeing red, well Purple actually

2008-09-09T08:24:00.000-07:00

Listen I've got a deal for you, you give me 20% of your profits and in return I will give you err... nothing. Have we got a deal? Thought not.

OK, it's not that bare, but if you are Betfair, apparently we do have a deal. With two weeks notice, If you are a consistent winner you Betfair now want you to contribute 20%+ of your profits to their pot. Consistent winner to Betfair means more than £5k a year by the looks of it, actually £5k for 60 weeks, unless you have lost are huge chunk in commission to them. Basically Betfair don't want you to win any longer.

Obviously as a winner this will eat a chunk into my potential profits, so what am I going to?

Well one thing I wont do, as I suspect is the same for others, is to sit around and do nothing. I face an easy choice. Give away 20% of my gains for nothing in return or work on ways to reduce this. Investing up to 20% of my profits to find an alternative is obviously a sensible solution so that's on the cards. The first thing I did was to sign up to Betdaq. OK I can't trade there at the moment but it will only be a short amount of time before tools start appearing to use there. Speaking to somebody at Betdaq it looks like these are on the way already. I recommend you also sign up to Betdaq ASAP. Betdaq is poor in comparison to Betfair but if any liquidity starts to move then it will transform that exchange. I suspect that will happen and I will do my bit to make that happen.

I also have a large cash balance in Betfair which I earn no interest on, so I have drawn down all but the necessary amount. Betfair will lose a fair chunk in lost interest on that and I will gain that now. Over the course of a year this would be 5%.

If Betfair had gone for an extra 5% to a total of 10%, then I think I would have shrugged my shoulders. If they are facing problems that need to be addressed and clearly stated that, then everybody in the market would probably stomach it and move on. 20%+ though is such a significant move that it is enough to push people over the edge.

For the blog it could have interesting consequences. I am going to experiment with a couple of ways to generate commission at no cost. That will completely mess up the weekly totals and make a nonsense of them. I'm not sure after the 22nd of September if I will be able to post up an sensible results due to this, so Betfair may well have ended the blog promoting Betfair! I'll only know for sure when I start doing this. Till then I'll carry on as normal.

Personally speaking, I don't think Betfair have fully thought through the full consequences of their actions. They say they have done their math, but judging by the response in the press and community they seem to have misjudged the move. At best it paints Betfair in the light of a company that is no longer interested in people that win, the dream that the entire company was built on.

Week 36 - A curious week

2008-09-09T07:25:00.000-07:00

As we drift, excuse the pun, into the jumps season, the opportunities shrink and I was expecting my totals to decline. As it was, last week just seemed a breeze for some reason. I never really felt troubled and had few losses. I reckon I earned more on average per race than I have at any time of the year. Very strange, I am sure there must be some underlying reason for it but I can't explain it myself. I think I'll drop an email to my mentor and they can explain.

Anyhow it was a very satisfactory week and much better than I expected. I guess it goes some way to compensate for the poor week I had recently. Whether this run continues is another thing but here's hoping! I hope you had a good week despite the dreadful weather. I hope we get a better run this week.

Week 35 - Confidence restored

2008-09-04T06:33:00.001-07:00

That's better. The return of more 'normal' days, i.e. not called off due to the rain, meant things went a lot better for me last week. In fact, it felt like a breeze. I hope next week is the same as that would make me feel a lot more optimistic about the month.

The reason I want to feel more optimistic is because we are now at the point where we head into less meetings. I am not expecting any fireworks and I suggest you reset expectations as well. To try and get some really big totals when there is less on is not realistic.

With less opportunities on the horse racing front I did mess around with the Soccer last week. Mess around is the best way to describe it, I am still some way from deciding what I want to do.

Week 34 - Worst week yet

2008-08-29T13:52:00.000-07:00

Yuck, that was a very messy week for me. The trouble at York seemed to really upset the markets, or at least my efforts in them and I really couldn't pull things together.

I felt confident that I could get something from York so when the meeting fell to the weather I wasn't really sure what would happen with the other race meetings or to the re-arranged races. I was pretty much at sixes and sevens for most of the week and decided to end it in style by losing four races in a row at Windsor and shedding nearly £100 in the process. On a positive note, my average per race wasn't too bad but the lack of opportunities didn't do me any favours.

The annoying thing about last week was that the evening racing pretty much comes to an end now and therefore I am expecting my weekly totals to fall away as we head into winter. I can't quite remember what happened last year around this time but I am pretty sure it wasn't a breeze. Any how, week 35 is proving much better so I look forward to writing about that early next week. I hope you all fared a bit better than I did last week.

Week 33 - Better than expected

2008-08-20T14:29:00.000-07:00

Well that week went better than I expected. It didn't feel very comfortable but it seemed to be ok in the end. I guess there are several ways to skin a cat! I never felt in control of many days but all is well that ends well, so I can't complain. Nothing really outstanding to report or to comment on but this will be one of the last weeks that I can do the evening racing so my range of opportunities will shrink from week 35 onwards. I am expecting my totals to start to decline now.

I am posting this as the York meeting disintegrates in the water that is flooding the course so with this and other meetings being abandoned I am expecting a very poor week. Hopefully I can report something useful for the next week. It seems a little bizarre that I am probably going to have my worst week of the year in the summer!

Week 32 - Some good runs

2008-08-13T02:47:00.001-07:00

Last week was quite curious. Quite often you have a constant battle with the market and your P&L is littered with losses from one source or another but last week I hit my highest strike rate of the year for some reason.

I wasn't doing anything special it just turned out that most things I did worked or that I was able to pull a small victory out of the jaws of defeat. Despite that I didn't add signficiantly to my weekly total as while I didn't lose that often, I didn't exactly have any major results either, just steady progress. Overall I managed to hit a 90% strike rate last week which is well above the 70-80% I would normally expect. I fear that while I had a good run last week it is quite likely it could reverse at any moment! Whatever happens I don't think I'll see 90% again as that is well above average and I can't immediately explain why that happened last week so my expectation is for a return to more normal levels this week.

Week 31 - Jumps season knocking on the door

2008-08-05T11:12:00.000-07:00

Another steady week but I notice this week that the card is starting to think out. This can only mean the jumps season is just around the corner. There will be evening racing in the winter but its probably only going to be the all weather tracks and at best one an evening from Wed through to Fri. I'll have to change stance a little and get a bit more focused when we switch back to this pattern. At the moment I am being pretty picky which races I do, I probably can't afford to miss a race in the winter?

The football season is almost upon us so I may play around again with a few strategies. My usual stance on playing around seriously is to use a separate account. I don't mind losing money when I am trying to find something that works but I don't want to suffer the psychological damage you can get with a ruined P&L. So for that reason I will set up or use another account to test things.

The Olympics are just on our doorstep now so I will have a look at that, but I have no idea what to do on it. I'll have a poke around anyhow so I can try and work out if there is anything interesting in there.

Good luck for next week.

Week 30 - Sizzling summer

2008-07-31T12:28:00.000-07:00

The summer this year has been a bit of a revelation f0r me. There is so much racing on its been much easier for me to pick and choose what I do. I guess, in hindsight, that it was pretty obvious but I think it may change my style going forward. In the winter there isn't that much on and a lot of it seems low quality, I have to dig deep to pull something out of it. It seems sensible to take it easier in the winter and go for it in the summer. Unfortunately the summer is the only time the weather is decent enough to go out and do things, like enjoy yourself! Maybe I should move to the other side of the world and trade from there instead.

Any how another good week.