Twin States Weather Blog

New WTOK Weather Blog

2007-05-23T15:27:00.000-05:00

This blog site will no longer be updated. The WTOK Weather Blog is now being hosted from a server at our station and you should update your bookmarks with this link:

http://70.89.78.165/WXBlog/pt/blog/

The blog is not gone... just has a slightly different look and a new home!

New Blog!

2007-05-16T21:29:00.000-05:00

I have just posted a new blog on the main page. Some of you were saying that you could not see the pictures, well that problem has been fixed. Tonight I discussed Wednesday's rain and the current drought status. Please check out the new blog at wtok.com, click on Inside WTOK, scroll down to blogs, and then on the right you will see weather blogs.

Current Radar/Rain Totals:

2007-05-16T06:18:00.000-05:00

(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning and will continue to develop as the cold front moves in from the east.

* As of 8:00 AM:

Meridian - Key Field: 1.99"

NAS Meridian - McCain Field: 1.07"

* Feel free to share your rain totals with everyone. Leave your rain totals in our comment section!

Heavy Rain Over Eastern Mississippi:

2007-05-16T04:20:00.000-05:00

* A band of thunderstorms this morning will move out of Eastern Mississippi and into Western Alabama. Nothing severe with these storms but we are getting a nice soaking of these storms. Nice to hear that rain pounding against the roof here in the studio downtown at WTOK. Be careful out and about this morning as water will pond on some of the roadways in downtown Meridian and across the Twin States.

* We are expecting another round of showers and storms later today as the cold front moves across Mississippi and Alabama

New Blog!

2007-05-15T21:29:00.000-05:00

Per upper management we will be posting blogs at a separate location, and this current blog will be completely removed from the website. The new blogs are easy to find. Just go the the main page wtok.com and click on Inside WTOK, from there select the blog option. You should be able to see different blogs posted by different departments, and of course our blog is located under WTOK Weather Blogs. From now on, I will be posting at this link. Thanks for reading.

RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY!

2007-05-15T17:20:00.000-05:00

During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving through East Mississippi and West Alabama which brings good and bad news. I like being positive so let's start with the good news. This cold front will be bringing decent rain chances to the area; furthermore, I am forecasting at least 60% coverage. So with 60% coverage, some folks may see little or no rain but we will take what we get. A few storms may briefly become strong to severe; however, those should be isolated. A few storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall; however, this event will not be a drought buster, and rain does not return to the forecast again until the middle to end of next week. Now for the bad news; if we do not get at least some decent rain amounts across the area Thursday will pose a fairly high fire threat. On Thursday, humidity across the area will be considerably lower behind the cold front; furthermore, combine that with very breezy northerly winds at 10-20 miles per hour and you have got a high fire danger. Now Meridian is under a burn ban so of course you can't burn inside the city; however, you need to exercise extreme caution even if your area is not under any kind of ban. My advice for the next few days, just stay away from outside burning.

Also of note, East Mississippi and West Alabama are now experiencing an extreme drought which is one category worse than the severe drought we were experiencing. I will have more on this in tomorrow's blog.

God Bless

More Smoky Haze & Isolated PM Storms Today:

2007-05-15T04:39:00.000-05:00

* Very warm and humid this morning as I write this about 4:40AM... The haze has stuck with us all night and it has mixed with fog this morning so be careful out and about this morning.

* We are expecting another day of that smoky haze just like we saw on Monday across the Twin States with partly cloudy skies. Again with daytime heating we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms pop by late afternoon across the area. These storms form, don't move much, rain themselves out and send out mini-outflow boundaries, and another storm will pop. These storms can pulse up to briefly be severe but usually quickly weaken. (Just like the storm in Smith County yesterday)

* Still watching the progression of a cold front working southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. Models indicate rain amounts of around 0.25 to 0.50". There will be a slight cool down behind the front with highs dropping into the lower 80s by late week and the weekend and upper 40s by Friday and Saturday morning.

* Models are showing another frontal boundary stalling out across the Twin States around the 24th of the Month which could bring another round of some showers and a few thunderstorms.

* Drought: Crunching the numbers this morning show we are -2.26" of rain for the month of May and we are still hurting at -16.52" for the year so far. The US Drought Monitor and the Palmer Drought Severity Index still place the Twin States area under a severe stage drought.

* Fire Danger: The cooler air behind the front will lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated into the weekend. A reminder as Newscenter 11 reported yesterday, the city of Meridian has been once again placed under a burn ban.

* Tropics: The GFS long range model out about 16 days (around the 30th of May) still shows a "system" in the South Central Gulf of Mexico. The last few model runs have been persistent in showing this feature. Of course I still note that far out on these forecast models is "voodoo land" and will probably change... but having said that, it will be something to watch the next week or so to see if models hold onto this "system." Interesting to note, this comes about the time we get ready to officially start the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 1). If the system were to develop (pending no other formations prior to that) it would take the "B" name on the list which this year is "Barry."

* More on the forecast here in a little less than an hour on Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition and the normal Good Morning Meridian. Trent Hughes is back tonight with the evening shows at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00.

Current Local Radar:

2007-05-14T17:55:00.000-05:00

(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this late afternoon and evening. These storms should begin to end after sunset.

Smith Co. T-Storm Warning Cancelled:

2007-05-14T17:50:00.000-05:00

* The Severe T-Storm Warning for Smith County has been cancelled. The NWS indicates the storm has weakened below severe limits....

Severe T-Storm Warning: Smith County

2007-05-14T17:16:00.000-05:00

* The NWS in Jackson has issued a Sever Thunderstorm Warning until 6:15 PM for Smith County in Central Mississippi

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705142210.wuus54.html

A severe thunderstorm was near Raleigh moving northwest at 10 mph. The storm will affect Raleigh, Burns, and White Oak.

Mixed Bag In The Weather...

2007-05-14T16:30:00.000-05:00

... with a smoke and haze, a cold front with some rain chances, elevated fire danger later at the end of the week and weekend and "Barry" possibly forming in the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico late this month...

* A lot happening today in the weather. As I right this at around 4:30 isolated storms have popped in spots across Eastern and Central Mississippi and Western Alabama. These will pop up and not move much and will rain themselves out.

* Smoke/Hazy: Surface winds are blowing from the southeast and east (see my blog below) and are pulling smoke from the fires in South Georgia and Northern Florida over into our part of the world. Southeasterly winds will continue to pull smoke from the wildfires over Southern Georgia and Alabama into Eastern & Southeastern Mississippi and Western and Southwestern Alabama until the front kicks our winds to the north later this week. The smoke will cause very hazy conditions across the Twin States. There is a very slight chance of an isolated afternoon storm today.

* Cold front and somewhat better rain chances: A moderate cold front will work southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. There will be a slight cool down behind the front for the end of the week and weekend as the front will bring relative humidity down. This also will increase the fire danger threat for the late week and weekend. Models indicate rains from around 0.25 to 0.50"...

* Fire Danger: Despite the rain chances for midweek, cooler and dryer air will move into the Twin States late week and this weekend and will dry out the moisture that fell and lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated. I should note the city of Meridian has once again been placed under a burn ban (see the news section of http://www.wtok.com)

* Tropics: If you read my blog from this morning about a "system" at the end of the month... not much chance. The GFS 12Z model still shows a system of some sort moving into the Southern Gulf of Mexico around the 29th and 30th of the month. Models have this feature moving northward right now. I will say we don't want to see anything major but a tropical depression with some good heavy rain would really make a dent in the severe drought for our area. I will note that models this far out are out in "voodoo land or the weather boonies" so it will be interesting to watch how this pans out. You can check things out to by checking out the models at the NCEP website at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

The 0z and 12Z (7pm & 1PM CDT) GFS runs are the longer range models (going out 16 days). Click on the 4 panel charts and just choose a day and time in the left column. Once the page opens, surface precipitation forecasts are in the bottom left hand box of the 4 panels... just something for you to check out as well. These are the models we meteorologists look at every day for forecasting. There not always practical... but then again the science of meteorology is not either.

* We'll talk more about the forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00PM... and back bright and early from 5:30 - 7:00 AM Tuesday morning on Good Morning Meridian.

Smoke and Hazy Skies Over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama:

2007-05-14T14:25:00.000-05:00

Afternoon Visible Satellite Image

19Z Surface Wind Contours
(Note the winds are flowing from South Georgia and North Florida across South Alabama and into Southeast, Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama.)

* Skies are very hazy and smoky over the Twin States this afternoon as you may notice if you are out and about today.

* The Mississippi Forestry Commission reports no fires in the area. The smoky and hazy skies are coming from the fires over Southern Georgia, Northern Florida, and a fire in the Florida Panhandle just across the Perdido River from Baldwin County, Alabama in Escambia County Florida... not to far from Pensacola. Winds out of the southeast this afternoon are pulling the hazy and smoke into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama... so if you have respiratory issues you may want to remain inside this afternoon.

* Just in from the Newscenter 11 newsroom... The City of Meridian has been placed once again under a burn ban. There is more on the story on our news section of our website at www.wtok.com

Could "Barry" Be Making An Appearance Late This Month?

2007-05-14T10:12:00.000-05:00

(Click to Enlarge)

* I didn't catch this earlier this morning looking over the forecast models until I did another look later this morning. This is a snapshot of the OZ (7:00 PM last night) GFS model run. Take note of the very bottom middle of the image. If this model is accurate it shows a tropical system coming across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico toward the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Now I will say this is at the end of the forecast model run (the GFS goes out 16 days and this is day 16 on the model) and this far out is out in the "weather boonies."

* One thing to note: This is on May 30th.... The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st.

* Now if it were to get to tropical storm status, it would take the name of "Barry" on the list. We already saw our "A" storm "Subtropical Storm Andrea" last week that amounted to nothing.

* Just something interesting to keep an eye on the next few weeks. I'll have to see if the 12Z model later this afternoon still picks up on this system...

Rain Chances By Midweek:

2007-05-14T04:13:00.000-05:00

* Another warm day is setting up for the Twin States as a weak high pressure dominates the weather for the area. Daytime highs will hit the upper 80s and lower 90s today. There is a slight chance of very isolated thunderstorms today.

* A decent rain chance (about a 50% chance) comes into the forecast by Wednesday as a front works into the Twin States. Once the front passes, daytime highs will drop into the lower and middle 80s with lows by Friday and Saturday morning making it into the upper 40s.

Come On Rain!

2007-05-12T16:12:00.000-05:00

"The day is not over yet." This is what my Chief Meteorologist in Alexandria likes to say when it comes to receiving rainfall. So as we continue to try and get that 40% coverage, I do see a few showers and thunderstorms mainly just to the north of our viewing area. Like yesterday, any storms that get going may briefly become severe with hail and wind being the main threats not to mention heavy downpours. I understand there have already been a couple of warnings across North Mississippi and North Alabama. Even though I am working in Alexandria at the moment, thanks to the internet it is easy for me to keep up with what's going on across East Mississippi and West Alabama. Stay tuned to Newscenter 11 for the latest in breaking weather updates from Rob, and of course Chris will be keeping the blogs up to speed and I will chime in if necessary.

God Bless

Current Radar:

2007-05-12T15:24:00.000-05:00

(Click to enlarge and hit refresh to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the Twin States this afternoon. Some storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels at times. Stay with us for updates. Rob Hart will have the latest on Newscenter 11 on the television side and both of us here on the blog.

Severe T-Storm Warning - Pickens Co.

2007-05-12T15:05:00.000-05:00

* The NWS Birmingham has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Pickens County in West Central Alabama until 3:30 PM. The storm is for the most part out of the WTOK viewing area... as our viewing area only covers the southern part of the county and the storm will not affect you. The storm will affect the northwestern part of the county... just east of Columbus along US 82.

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0705122002.wuus54.html

Warning Cancelled!

2007-05-11T18:59:00.000-05:00

The severe thunderstorm over Choctaw County has now weakened to below severe limits. However, the storm still may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning!

2007-05-11T18:51:00.000-05:00

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Choctaw County, Alabama until 7:15 p.m. Here's the text:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...* UNTIL 715 PM CDT* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARAGON...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WATER VALLEY THROUGH 655 PM CDT... ISNEY BY 710 PM CDT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

Radar Update!

2007-05-11T18:40:00.000-05:00

Here's the text on the storm over Choctaw County from the National Weather Service in Mobile.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY...AT 636 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASTRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PARAGON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH.THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WIMBLY...GILBERTOWN...CHAPPELL HILL...LOU AND SOUWILPA THROUGH 715 PMCDT.THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUDTO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULDDOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEKSHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOWLYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVEREDROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A Few Storms Are Developing!

2007-05-11T14:24:00.000-05:00

Skies have been sunny through most of the day so far, but cumulus clouds are beginning to bubble up. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing down in Wayne County, mainly along and south of Hwy. 84. However, I am still forecasting activity to increase late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Even though I am only forecasting 30% coverage, where the storms to pop up they may produce locally heavy rainfall because they will be slow movers. Stay tuned for more updates.

Quick Update!

2007-05-10T21:36:00.000-05:00

Radar is showing most of the area drying out; however, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms are continuing across some of the area. One small shower has popped up just to the east of Meridian, and another small cell has popped up in eastern Winston County. The activity will continue to diminish as we get later into the night, but don't be surprised if you ear a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple of hours. We will get the scattered showers and thunderstorms going again on Friday especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Have a good night!

God Bless

Radar Update!

2007-05-10T20:07:00.000-05:00

We have seen a few showers and thunderstorms build across the area late this afternoon and evening; however, this activity should begin to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An outflow boundary has pushed off from the storms to our north, and as this boundary moved into eastern Mississippi a few showers and thunderstorms have developed. Think of an outflow boundary as a mini-front. I was out on my lunch (supper) break when the outflow came through Meridian, and even though it did not produce any rain we did get a nice cooling breeze. In our viewing area, the heaviest rainfall has occurred in Winston County around Louisville and points north. Radar estimates are showing between 1-2 inches have fallen across central Winston County. Other spotty showers and thunderstorms produced some heavy downpours around Quitman late this evening. We should see more scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and into Saturday as well.

What is a subtropical storm?

2007-05-09T20:45:00.000-05:00

The official start of hurricane season is June 1; however, our first named storm of the season did not feel like waiting until June. The low pressure that has been spinning off the coast of Georgia was named Subtropical Storm Andrea earlier today. As of the 8:00 p.m. E.S.T. advisory, Andrea was barely moving and remained very disorganized. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 miles per hour, and motion to the west or southwest is expected over the next 24 hours. This system is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, but it will continue to produce large swells and breezy conditions across parts of the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coastlines. If this system remains together long enough it would most likely make landfall along the northeast Florida coast; however, storm impacts should be very minimum. Now some folks are thinking just because we have a storm forming this early in the season that it is going to be a bad hurricane season; however, that is not the case so don't give in to the propaganda. On the other hand, with La Nina phasing back in we may see an active season, and hurricane experts are forecasting this season to be above normal as far as tropical cyclone formation goes. Of course you can count on Newscenter 11 to keep you ahead of the 2007 hurricane season.

Now what is a subtropical storm? Here's a good explanation from the National Hurricane Center. A subtropical cyclone is a non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

I hope this helps in your understanding of a subtropical system.

God Bless

2007 Hurricane Season Starts Early:

2007-05-09T11:15:00.000-05:00

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...NORTHEAST
OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH.  A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALONG THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. 
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

Twin States Weather Blog

***New WTOK Weather Blog***

New Blog!

Current Radar/Rain Totals:

Heavy Rain Over Eastern Mississippi:

New Blog!

RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY!

More Smoky Haze & Isolated PM Storms Today:

Current Local Radar:

Smith Co. T-Storm Warning Cancelled:

Severe T-Storm Warning: Smith County

Mixed Bag In The Weather...

Smoke and Hazy Skies Over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama:

Could "Barry" Be Making An Appearance Late This Month?

Rain Chances By Midweek:

Come On Rain!

Current Radar:

Severe T-Storm Warning - Pickens Co.

Warning Cancelled!

Severe Thunderstorm Warning!

Radar Update!

A Few Storms Are Developing!

Quick Update!

Radar Update!

What is a subtropical storm?

2007 Hurricane Season Starts Early:

New WTOK Weather Blog