Day Trading the Emini - Simple as 123

Easy Pickings

2006-10-11T15:15:00.001-05:00

Hi Guest's and Students...

Easy pickings today...you just had to be patient, and remember set-up's and Strategies that we see everyday.

We had more trades today in the Hotcomm room in a long time...they are better at seeing these set-up's in anticipation -- that way they pull the trigger without emotions playing such a big part of being a day trader. Just look at the chart and I'm sure you will see what we recognized as simple as 123 set-up's.

10:30 Reverse which included the MA Strategy
A 1-2-3 top formation that we call an " M " Pattern. This was in the time zone where in the last two years the ES has pulled back. It was a piece of cake -- like taking candy from (whomever).
We had a great lesson on trading the triple tops...just by looking at the color of the candles, and then before we knew it we got the same pattern going back the other way...how simple was that lesson.

The chart shows most of the trades we took today...check out our room and see what your missing.

Your Thoughts...

Prosper,

Marsh

Just a thought...

He who believes ... is strong; he who doubts ... is weak. Strong convictions precede great actions.

Day Trading Workshop for July

2006-07-03T06:55:00.000-05:00

Marsh is trying to be in the Hotcomm room every Monday for at least
a few hours. Guests are welcome!

Also, by request Marsh will be hosting a short workshop with a
VERY special guest on July 10-12th on Advanced Trading Techniques.

PowerTrade techniques that keep it simple with minimum risk.
Learn how to trade Gaps, trade against the trend, and learn how to
take low risk trades using our fast Stochastics and MACD.

Special guest on Wednesday - Lavender will share her charts and
remarks...learn how to be a gunslinger...and minimize your risk.
This workshop is not for newbies...experienced traders or those who
have attended my workshops and know the 40 things you need to know
to make safe to make low risk trades.

Cost $150.00 (No refunds)

Where: Hotcomm Room - RELAY:123Students
Time: 9:20 - 12:30 ET all 3 days and we will stay on Wednesday
till I drop. Password will be provided the night before the
Workshop.

To reserve your place, please go to http://www.simple-as-123.net/

A wonderful July 4th to you all!

-Marsh
Day Trading the Emini - Simple-as-123

-------------------------
How To Do The Impossible
-------------------------
You can do just about anything if you make up your mind to. How
much you actually achieve depends largely on:
1. Desire
2. Knowledge
3. Persistent effort
4. Ability
If you are lacking the first three factors, your ability will not
balance out the lack. So concentrate on the first three and the
results will amaze you.

March 2006 mini Workshop Chart

2006-03-28T09:00:00.001-05:00

Well the best we could do yesterday was power trades...we never had the magic numbers, but we kept the trades to a minimum risk of only 1/2 to 1 point.

Check out the chart: http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/3-27-06Workshop.png

The Open Gap Strategy was to small to trade...but I wanted you to notice, if we have a gap down it has a tendency to continue down for a few minutes at the open; most of the time. The bigger the gap the more it seems to move.

The Gap Strategy...where we look for the gap to get filled does not require a size...but I do like the gap to be about 3 or 4 points.

On a gap down the strategy calls for the high of the first 10-minutes as a target for your entry...look for white candles across the board.(the Dow and Comp). We managed a point out of that trade this morning.

The next thing we looked at was the 30-Minute Breakdown at 10:55 ET...it ended up being a small 1/4 point loss, it just took to long, and it looked like the market was just going to stall.

We had two nice W formations as you can see on the chart today...and the number 4 point of the W had developed a blip...that is a big clue we were going to get the reverse. We talked about taking the trade the second time through the number 3 point because we had no muscle (no magic numbers)...and we did get 1 full point out of that strategy.

The second W was a beautiful W, but it was to close the FOMC meeting and we decided we would just pass on that trade. But it was a beautiful perfect W.

How To Do The Impossible

You can do just about anything if you make up your mind too. How much you actually achieve depends largely on"
1. Desire
2. Knowledge
3. Persistent effort
4. Ability
If you are lacking the first three factors, your ability will not balance out the lack. So concentrate on the first three and the results will amaze you.

Your thoughts about the workshop, criticisms, good, bad or indifferent would be helpful. The room will be open tomorrow, use the same password: bingo

The next workshop will be on Wednesday, same time set up but you will receive a different password Tuesday evening.

Marsh

March 2006 mini Workshop Chart

2006-03-28T09:00:00.000-05:00

The Gap Strategy...where we look for the gap to get filled does not require a size...but I do like the gap to be about 3 or 4 points.

The next thing we looked at was the 30-Minute Breakdown at 10:55 ET...it ended up being a small 1/4 point loss, it just took to long, and it looked like the market was just going to stall.

The second W was a beautiful W, but it was to close the FOMC meeting and we decided we would just pass on that trade. But it was a beautiful perfect W.

How To Do The Impossible

Your thoughts about the workshop, criticisms, good, bad or indifferent would be helpful. The room will be open tomorrow, use the same password: bingo

The next workshop will be on Wednesday, same time set up but you will receive a different password Tuesday evening.

Marsh

W Formation

2006-01-30T20:25:00.000-05:00

Hi Rynn...

I thought about you when I saw that W formation forming. I asked myself would he or wouldn't he take this trade.

I would not have taken it first time through because we did not have stoch's in the right position...and number 2, we had 2 red candles in a row...it just felt like it was not going to make it. If you did take the risk and you could withstand the emotions, it never pulled back below the #4 point, and it would have paid off. I can't stay in a trade that long for sure. Of course the magic numbers helped propel the ES to close on the bullish bias that we are accustomed to.

Even though W formations are very consistent...we don't have to take the risk, or stay in a trade that long. We can look for something with a little less risk.

I think one could take the risk on the BO of the Triangle after the 3 o'clock reverse failed.

So, to answer your question...You never have to just take the risk, you will miss some of these...if you have MOM, and stoch's in the perfect position (Oversold) it should just take off. On this particular W the stoch's had pulled back and then moved up to give you a clue that it might work...but how do you handle the emotions?

Your thoughts of my email?

Marsh

More emini Workshop Commentary

2006-01-30T20:19:00.003-05:00

Hi Students and Guest's...

Wild Friday and I missed all the fun.

If I was going to analyze my chart at the end of the day, this is what it would look like...and without the benefit of the TradeLog. Some comments about the first hours high: After the first hour (10.30) you would add 3 or 4 points to the high and low to get a feel for the range for the day. Not that it can't keep going, but just not likely...only you will know this if you keep track of the data over a long period of time.

Gaps...

Small gaps don't seem to matter all that much...so I don't pay much attention to them if there less that 4 points. Having said that...If I see the magic numbers and moving with stochastics I would give them some serious thought. Like that Blip pattern at the open.

A student pointed out you may have to look at the 24 hr. session to see if Stochastics is really in the right position at the open...he may have something there; lets watch it the next week or so. Please try to understand what is going on during the reversal time zones. Reports -- To reverse or not to reverse is the question.

Your Thoughts,

Marsh

Thought for the day...

Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.

Friday's e-mini Workshop

2006-01-30T20:19:00.001-05:00

I hope you learned something from today's price action...Yeo asked me if this was momentum while in the workshop while we were waiting for a pullback; to clarify my answer...because I said we really have not had a 25 point back to the upside, and that we did not have MOM...we had the ES, Mega bearish from the get-go, now that's MOM. Magic Numbers rule...

Give me some feed back on what you perceived from that momentum...and why you couldn't pull the trigger after the 10:00 o'clock did not reverse...nor the 10:30 time zone.

This should be a good lesson on trying to use the MA strategy after the first hour.

-Marsh

Thursday's eMini Class

2006-01-20T06:31:00.002-05:00

Hi Students and Guests...

Interesting day for a Thursday...we were in a descending channel most of the morning, and then we started to get a crossover on the fast MACD, and Stoch's was shooting straight up...I expected the 12 o'clock flop, but nooooo!

Now that is a big clue...we got the magic numbers at 12:15 and they were moving -- that is another big clue. Now for the risk that was pretty spooky; the Stochastics looked overbought, but the MACD looked good, TRIN was bullish, the 15-minute MACD was still looking up hill, and the TICK was moving up to the 800's. So with the odds in our favor, and having the magic numbers and moving with only 1 point of risk...you would look to pull the trigger, and look for the 1-1/4 point, or more. You could also try to incorporate the MA strategy into this trade because of the magic numbers and the momentum was growing. And don't forget the previous gaps we looked at this morning on the 15-min. chart...gaps get filled sooner or later.

If you take the high of the first hour and add 3 -- 4 points to extend the range, it gave you some room to take a trade at the high of the day...as I mentioned in the workshop this morning...Remember it's high risk trading at the high or low of the day? We needed that extended range to give us the confidence and momentum rules.

One more thought...anyone contemplate being a Contrarian late in the day? A quad top + and the move below the MA.

Your thoughts...

Marsh

Marsh is back!

2006-01-10T12:56:00.000-05:00

Good news! After several operations and a course of chemotherapy, Marsh is feeling well enough to spend some time in the Paltalk and Hotcomm rooms. You can visit him there if you want to listen in as he trades the emini....of course in Hotcomm you get to see his desktop and charts in real time too.

Marsh has also indicated he is up to taking another class later this month, from Jan 16th to Jan 25th. See the schedule below:

(Please note that many have already put their names down to reserve a spot. Since space is limited, they will get first preference, and after that it will be on a first come, first served basis).

Monday, January 16th 9:15am - 11:30am EST
The Basics, and over 40 things you need to know to make safer lower risk trades. Set-up - Hotcomm, Charts, and answer questions.

5-Min. ES candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average. If you're using a chart service that allows you to set up more than one indicator�use Stochastics set at 8, 3, and 3, called Classic Stochastics� (Note that quote.com allows only %K and %D, set them at %K 8 and %D at 3).

5-Min. $COMPX candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average.

5-Min. $INDU candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average.

15-Min. ES chart with the MACD

Trade Log (If you don't use a Trade Log you will lose!)

Trading with the trend (The trend is your friend till it comes to an end)

How to place your orders - Bid and Ask (Learn how to cut down slippage.)

6 Reversal zones�maybe even 8.

A bullish bias�

Tuesday, January 17th 9:25am - 11:30am EST
What to expect on Turn around Tuesday

Looking for a Strategy that fits your personality�

Open Gap strategy�the night traders 24hr session

Gap strategy�using a 10-minute ES chart

Double Tops and Bottoms

10 o'clock reverse

First hours High and Low - How it affects the day

Reversals�what to be wary of

Pivots - if you want to know where and how to use them

Wednesday, January 18th 10:25am - 2:30pm EST�

Afternoon Strategies�how they are different

12 o'clock hop or flop

That move to the low during the doldrums - risk to reward breakouts. When to use caution in the afternoon

2:15 Late afternoon Breakout - How to recognize the set-up

The Bond Boys�Strategies - M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.

A bullish bias Continued on next page�

Thursday, January 19th 9:25am - 11:30am

Staying out of the chop ( Looking for a channel)

12 o'clock hop or flop

Reversals�or just pullbacks

Strategies - Gaps, M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.

Review of what we need to know

Choppy bias

Friday, January 20th 11:45am - 2:45pm EST
Advanced Trading Techniques

Understanding trading day personalities

Emotions you never knew you had

That second high of the day�maintaining that low risk trade.

Trailing Stops�when is the best time to use them

Late Afternoon Breakout�2:15

The Bond Boys

A bullish bias

Monday, January 23rd 9:25am - 11:30am EST�

Now we know what to expect�right!

Identifying 11 Price Patterns

Blips�using those candlesticks

8 possible reversal time zones�How can we tell?

Momentum�do you get it?

A bullish bias

Tuesday, January 24th 9:25am - 11:30am EST�

Why it's not working for you

Controlling frustrations

How to stay focused

1:25 reverse or pullback�how can we tell?

Trading in a Channel

Choppy, and narrow channel

Wednesday, January 25th 9:25am - 12:00 noon EST�

Review afternoon Strategies

12 o'clock hop or flop

That move to the low during the doldrums - risk to reward Reversals to look out for in the afternoon

The Bond Boys�Strategies - M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.

3 o'clock reverse�

A bullish bias Times and dates subject to change�

We will spend at least 3 days of the last week of the month on any make-up classes you may have missed.

Those signing up for the Hotcomm classes will also get 17 pages of articles that have not yet been added to the trading manual.

Make sure you do your homework. If you will take the time to study you will learn to feel the pulse of the market, and make confident trading decisions.

Classes are $250.00 per month for the whole month's series. Go to http://www.simple-as-123.net/class-schedule.html to sign up.

A few tidbits..

2005-08-10T08:17:00.000-05:00

A few tidbits...

I don't really pay any attention to pivots...Time Zones are a priority to me.

I have a very strict set of guide lines on high risk trades...like my Open Gap Strategy, and also the Gap Strategy. My first real opportunity to make a low risk (even though it's a Power Trade) is the 10 o'clock EST reverse. After the first hour we have the 10:30 reverse, and the 30-Minute Breakout.

There are some very repetitious movements that occur almost everyday...I do like to trade them when I get the set-up; they are the 12 o'clock hop or flop, and the ES likes to move toward the low of the day between 1 and 2 o'clock.

Technical analysis is really quite simple, and easy to learn, and with over 15 basic patterns to look for during the day...we always have something to analyze.

The Simple-as-123 concept almost gets lost with all that I just mentioned...but I think about it everyday when I'm looking at these elements...After the first hour I want the market to be in sync (Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P) I want the Dow to be moving above 25 points and the Naz above 10 and both to be moving...If I'm not near a reversal time zone I pull the trigger if I'm on the right side of the track (Trading with the trend.) Can't remember the last loss when that happens...give it your best shot; remember I'm just looking for 1 -- 1-1/4 points...and the opportunity to trail, and not risking ever more than two points.

I believe the basics -- the 40 things you need to know will make any system, or method better...most of these are just common sense that are often overlooked; and that is why traders make simple mistakes.

There are some simple concepts that help us make some of these rules worthwhile...

The high and the low of the day occurs after the first hour...+ - 3 or 4 points.
Be cautious trading at the High and Low of the day...need a confluence to do so.
After the high or the low of the day have been made...look to be a Contrarian.
Wait for the turn...(when the trend is changing, we need the MA and Fast Stoch's to cross) to make a safe trade.
Count candles and look for a set-up when Stoch's are at extremes.

Sounds like a lot...but not when you study the chart and observe these traits everyday.

All Power Trades today

2005-06-22T19:08:00.000-05:00

And they said June was a tough month...All Power Trades, and patience is all it takes.

1. Open Gap strategy...it worked
2. Gap strategy...it worked
3. 10:30 Reverse...it worked
4. 30-Min. Breakout...it worked
5. " W " pattern...break even or if you risked 2 points...it worked
6. And how about our...1 -- 2 o'clock move...O'yea!
7. " W " pattern Breakout between 2 and 3 o'clock...it worked

The last trade was also in that zone when we want to be a contrarian...3 attempts to make new lows and then you get that bullish bias going in the late afternoon...just like what we talk about in the workshops.

All PowerTrades...but you can learn these techniques, right?

Marsh

Quote for the day...
He who believes ... is strong; he who doubts ... is weak. Strong convictions precede great actions.

Inclining wedge

2005-06-08T23:27:00.000-05:00

Hi Students & Guest's...

12:15:14 {Marsh} Inclining wedge...it's a bearish pattern 12:15:51 {Marsh} anticipate the 1 -- 2 move

This was a note I posted in the Hotcomm room today...

This was a good illustration of an Inclining Wedge...see attachment.

What a ride if you went short on the second candle below the MA on that blip (reversal pattern) and at a time when the ES likes to move toward the low of the day...patience, patience, and something will come along and make your day, out of lousy morning session. Hey... ya gotta love it.

Thanks to those who sent me an email today...I appreciate your thoughts; and your insight trading the eMini S&P.

All of you new students...please participate in the workshop. I can't help you unless you communicate. There are no dumb or stupid questions...only answers.

Roll over tomorrow...

Your thoughts...

Marsh

Quote for the day...

Patience is power. Patience is not an absence of action; rather, it is "timing"; it waits on the right time to act, for the right principles and in the right way.

Fulton J. Sheen -- Clergyman

M and W Patterns

2005-04-29T12:30:00.000-05:00

You hear me talk about the W and M pattern almost everyday...this is not the best illustration but will do for now. Note: When the number 4 point is higher than the number 2 point it's a lower risk pattern. Some call these patterns 1, 2, 3 Bottoms. If it looks like a W and acts like a W it must be a W...look for the opportunity to use a trailing stop.

Check out the chart: http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April28-05WPattern.gif

Marsh

Thought for the day...

Don't forget it's much harder if you don't know what you're doing...

Comments on Wednesday 4-27-05

2005-04-29T12:27:00.000-05:00

Hi Students, and Guest's...

I have just a few comments about trading on the 10:30 bar...I let that bar close off, then I look to see if it's a reverse or a continuation. This is also the time when we would look for the 30-Minute Breakout. Pretty hard to catch a long candle because of the previous 4 candles and as I mentioned in the room a 4 or 5 candle will more than likely turn red and even retrace the long candle. After a retrace I look for a pullback to see if I can enter with a confluence. At 11 o'clock we were watching a tight W pattern form, and if you took the trade at the #3 point or used a point or point and 1/4 above and let the market come to you, would have been a safe trade; also the Gap Strategy would also let you take that trade. I did not see the opportunity to trail that trade...so taking 1-1/4 point for a target to exit and looking for a fish hook, or red candles to stay in the game as long as possible.

Next opportunity was that -- I wanna be a Contrarian in the afternoon...and you see a triple top during the time when the ES likes to move toward the low of the day, it had potential, and you would try to plan in anticipation to get short. Second candle below the MA looked good but would have ended up stopping you out.

Next anticipation to be a seller was at the 3:00 reverse, it turned out to be tough also...we had a blip, but the next candle when you would look to pull the trigger turned white, if you took the trade it worked, but would have been frustrating sitting on that trade for 15-minutes.

I don't recommend trading in the last hour...3:30 is my cut off, with few exceptions. Overall was a tough bullish bias kinda Wednesday and at no time did we ever have a confluence. Note -- when we have the TICK at or above 1000 you will probably see the market turn, so be cautious taking a trade unless you have a good eye on resistance or red candles on the D or N. The TRIN really should be in your favor or at least moving in your direction.

Check out the chart: http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April27-05WedBull.gif

Any thoughts?

Marsh

Quote for the day...

Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish.

-- John Quincy Adams

Blips

2005-04-29T12:03:00.000-05:00

Blips are a reversal type pattern that work well when they show up at a reversal time zone. Try to find a confluence when taking the trade...Note - if you see this pattern and you are just above/below the MA it may give you the opportunity to pull the trigger and not be on the right side of the MA...just look for MOM.

Check out the chart:
http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/AprilBlips.gif

Marsh

Quote for the day...

"The battle that never ends is the battle of belief against unbelief."
- Thomas Carlyle

Comments from Monday, 4-25-05

2005-04-29T11:59:00.000-05:00

Hi Students, and Guest's...

Moved too far, too fast...end up with the sideways channel for most of the day.

The Breakout (breakdown for Elliott) just before 3 o'clock looked like it would be a winner, and was, if you took the risk...but this is what I saw and it kept me from taking that trade...It was just 5-Minutes till 3 o'clock. making it very risky after being so bullish most of the day...I wanted to be a Contrarian and did not think it would move much further down, and did not have stochastics where I wanted it. The better trade was the 3:25 -- 3:30 reverse off of the blip.

If you make a mistake, find out why...

Don't dwell on your mistakes or setbacks, learn and grow from them, and then move on. Never let your mistakes defeat or discourage you. Be prepared to take risks.

Check out the chart: http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April25-05BullishMon.gif

Any thoughts?

Marsh

Thought for the day...

Always define your risk, and then you don't have to worry about it.

June 2005 Workshop Schedule.

2005-04-26T09:58:00.000-05:00

June Workshop Schedule

This is the last regular class Marsh will be holding... ever!

We take the mystery out of Day-Trading. All of this takes place in real-time using HotComm and Live Market Conditions. You get to see how we put it all together – It’s really Simple-as-123.

Wednesday, June 7th 9:20am – 11:30am EST - The Basics, and 41 things you need to know.

Set-up: I recommend Labware Charts easy set-up. For info go to www.Labwarecharts.com ask for a free trial while you are taking the Workshop.

1. 5-Min. ES chart with the 10-period simple moving average. If you are using a chart service that allows you to set up more than one indicator…use Stochastics set at 8, 3, and 3, called Classic Stochastics. (Note that quote.com has only the 8 and 3).
2. 5-Min. $COMPX chart with the 10-period simple moving average.
3. 5-Min. $INDU chart with the 10-period simple moving average.
4. 15-Min. ES chart with the default MACD – 12 – 26 - 9
5. Trade Log (If you don’t use a Trade Log you will lose!)
6. Trading with the trend (The trend is your friend till it comes to an end)
7. How to place your orders – Bid and Ask (Learn how to cut down slippage.)
8. 6 Reversal zones…Maybe even 8. 9. Fast 5-Min. MACD settings – 22 - 50 - 5 10. A bullish bias…

Thursday, June 8th 9:25am – 11:30am EST - A consolidation or choppy kind of day

1. Looking for a Strategy that fits your personality…
2. Open Gap strategy - the night traders 24hr session
3. Gap strategy - using a 10-minute ES chart
4. Double Tops, Bottoms, and Blips
5. 10 o’clock reverse
6. 30-Minute Breakout
7. First hours High and Low – How it affects the day
8. How to use fast Stochastics and fast MACD
9. Pivots – if you want to know where and how to use them
10. Expect the Market to continue or move sideways

Friday, June 9th 11:45am – 2:45pm EST - Advanced Trading Techniques

1. Understanding trading day personalities
2. Identifying 15 Price Patterns
3. Trader Killer
4. Emotions you never knew you had
5. Late afternoon Breakout
6. The Bond Boys
7. Trailing Stops - when is the best time to use them
8. A bullish bias

Monday, June 12th 9:25am – 11:30pm EST

1. How to look at the reversals for a trade
2. Blips - using those candlesticks
3. 8 possible reversal time zones - How can we tell?
4. A new and powerful price pattern (200 simple Moving Average)
5. Momentum…do you get it?
6. Review the Study Guide
7. Bullish bias

Send me your trades via email and I will analyze them for you. I will need your TradeLog of course, and your strategy...long or short, time of entry, target, and exit. If you use HyperSnap or some other screen capture tool, you can send me your chart. Focus on your emotions...the ones you never new you had. Use good risk management, and for goodness sake be patient.

Tuesday, June 13th 9:25am – 11:30am EST

1. Turn Around Tuesday
2. 11:15 Reverse – A new Reverse to think about
3. Handling frustrations in a sideways channel
4. Trade all day – How to recognize the set-up
5. Strategies – M/A, Breakouts, first hour’s high and low.
6. Look for the ES to retrace Mondays move
7. Choppy bias

Wednesday, June 14th 10:25am – 3:00pm EST

1. Afternoon Strategies – Late Afternoon Breakout
2. 10:30 reverse, how to recognize the set-up
3. 12 o’clock hop or flop
4. That move to the low during the doldrums – risks to look out for in the afternoon
5. 2:15 Late afternoon Breakout – How to recognize the set-up
6. The Bond Boys - Strategies – M/A, Breakouts, first hour’s high and low.
7. A bullish bias

Thought for the day...

If you really want to get better, you have to practice perfectly...that is, with attention and intention. Attention is keeping your mind on what you are doing while you are doing it. And intention is having a definite purpose that will give meaning to all your effort.

Thursday, June 15th 10:25am – 1:30pm EST

1. Why it’s not working for you
2. Controlling your Frustrations
3. How to stay focused
4. 1:25 reverse or pullback - how can we tell
5. Sideways bias

Friday, June 16th 9:25am – 3:30pm EST - Advanced Trading Techniques

1. Understanding trading day personalities
2. Emotions you never knew you had
3. Late afternoon Breakout
4. The Bond Boys
5. Trailing Stops - when is the best time to use them
6. A bullish bias

We will spend the 19th and 20th working on solving problems, and on any make-up classes you may have missed. Make sure you do your homework. If you will take the time to study you will learn to feel the pulse of the market, and make confident trading decisions.

Example of Labware Charts - easy set-up and free tools.

World News

2005-04-20T16:34:00.000-05:00

Newbies, don't make this way too difficult...we don't really care about what is going on in the world. The price action after the first hour will set the stage. Keep this simple, go with the flow, trade with the trend, look for the Magic Numbers.

True, sometimes the market will move too far too fast too soon, and you may not be able to catch the train; but this is where you have to really focus, and when in doubt stay out.

When doing your homework, you are going to be checking for reports that are posted on Econoday, or whatever briefing service you may be using, and check out the night-session for support and resistance points before the open...the main thing is to be patient, and use discipline when you see an obvious set-up.

Anticipate the 30-Minute Breakout...use the tools and methods to keep you safe, and never risk more than 2 points...if you see that you would have to risk more than two points, stay on the sidelines. Remember we don't really want to risk anything...so if it does not go your way in 5-minutes look for a profitable exit or breakeven, or a smaller loss.

We have 15 price patterns to draw from...find a strategy to fit your personality; learn all of it's idiosyncrasies, and those subtle little nuance's that are big clues...90% of time you will need mom to make a safe trade.

Prosper,

-Marsh

Thought for the day...

You must take responsibility for everything in your life. Make yourself go beyond where you think you can go...there is no compromise in the rules, we must not give in to our weaknesses. It's knowledge from past experience, that gives you confidence to make the right decisions.

A question from April 15th, 2005

2005-04-20T16:25:00.000-05:00

Question:

Hi Marsh ...I did this Friday and wonder what you thought about it. When I looked at the W forming I thought it would not work because we were mega bearish but coming of a triple bottom and broke above ma, small risk, I thought well it just might b-o, but if not I would take a small profit, which I did. Then I saw the M working off DT and got in when it broke below MA, and mega bearish I did not wait for W to b-o, or the M, I entered early but with what I felt a very small risk but alot of rewards. Any thoughts ?

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April15-05Friday.png

Answer:

That was my way of thinking...it was just too bearish. I thought it might be the place when on a Friday it likes to make a run for it...my plan was to take it second time through and had my finger on the trigger and the candle turned red...the M went with the trend and I was done for the day so I did not take it. I think it would have been a piece of cake though.

-Marsh

Some Observations from Thursday April 14th

2005-04-20T16:07:00.000-05:00

Hi Students and Guest's...

Very interesting day, and also very profitable...these were the opportunities we looked at in the open Hotcomm room today; patience really paid off again like yesterday. I really expected a retracement today; but you just have to go with the flow. We started downhill in a Descending Channel...and the market was pretty bearish with the Magic Numbers close at hand.

1. At 9:50 we noted a TT...set-up for the 10 o'clock reverse, and early 30-minute BO.

2. 10:25 -- 10:30 Reverse...very nice set-up and we noted the long shadow; a big clue. If you took this PT...my advise was the candle above the blip or second candle above the MA...both would have worked.

3. Descending Channel -- We had the DT at the top of the descending channel...this is a set-up to trade with the trend in a descending channel. Also had the 30-Minute Breakout (breakdown for Elliott) second time through. Very close to 12 o'clock so I thought it best to wait and see if it was going to Hop or Flop. It did try to Hop, but in the last 12 months or so...it would stall and most of the time moved lower. When we got the 2 nd candle below the MA and risking less than 2 points looked very promising...Exit at support or use a tight 1 point stop.

4. Next we had the breakout (breakdown for Elliott), and set-up with the trend during that 1 o'clock move we talk about everyday -- it was at major support at 1170.00. I was asked how to take that trade and we decided we would take it the 2 nd. time through or use the 1 point below support and let the market come to you. Both worked. Nice trade Rynn!

5. I was through for the day...but if you want to be a Contrarian the DB looked very enticing at 1:35.

Any thoughts or questions about today -- if not I will see you in the open Hotcomm room tomorrow morning for about an hour or so. Friday has a bullish bias...and I will still be looking for that retracement.

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April14-05Thur.png

Marsh

Loosen up Pilgrim...

Tomorrow is the most important thing in life...Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something form yesterday.

John Wayne (1907 -- 1979) Actor

Some observations on April 12th, 2005

2005-04-20T14:22:00.000-05:00

Hi Students, and Guest's...

Some observations while in the open Hotcomm, and Paltalk room this afternoon.

I told everyone I did not think the report of the FOMC would cause very much volatility... WRONG! I'm not sure it was the minutes or not...the fact remains you don't want to be in a trade at or near a report of any kind. Wait for the bar to close.

Don't yell at me about the old saying --"Don't be long at 2 o'clock -- but maybe at 2:05."

Two problems while trading at or near the low of the day...it was at support, and trading at the low of day is very high risk...best to let it break the support, and use one of the 3 techniques to take the trade.

When you want to take that high risk trade you better have a confluence. Both MACD's were uphill. I was asked where I thought the market might go...my answer was I did not know, but take a look at the 15-Minute MACD for direction.

The breakout of the trading range was caused by the report or some news...but with the direction from the MACD's and having the second candle above the MA with the risk being back down below the MA...looked like an opportunity to me...and you had mom, and the possibility of a trailing stop, and protecting your entry. Caution as you approach the 3 o'clock reverse.

How about the 30-Minute Breakout at the high of the day...same problem as trading at the low; risky and would have been resistance for the breakout of the trading range...once again if you weren't in the Breakout trade and wanted to take the 30-Minute Breakout of the high, just use the same technique, as at the low of the day.

For PowerTraders -- the Open Gap Strategy trade had mom...or very close to it, it would have worked. 10 o'clock reverse...and you can see why I let that 10 o'clock bar close off, did not reverse but was a continuation of the open trend.

After the first hour there was the 30-Minute Breakout (Breakdown for Elliott) with the second candle below the line and a good opportunity...A lot of mom to push it down...the doldrums was just that the doldrums...and on a Tuesday we get that sideways channel we so often see.

Newbie's...new students, tell me about trading in the Red Zone?????

Tell me about trading in the Red Zone? And the TICK, and the TRIN, and how about those Magic Numbers when your anticipating a trade????

This one will just gnaw at you...because you would have had a breakout line on top and below that narrow channel...looking for that breakout, and taking the trade with the second candle above the MA, and you're going to say I coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April12-05TuesFOMC.png

Don't let it frustrate you...it's a good lesson.

Marsh

While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.

- Henry C. Link

April 2005 Workshop - comments on today's class

2005-04-04T20:06:00.000-05:00

I felt the Workshop went pretty well once we got the charts squared away.

Let's review what we saw together...and some of you stuck around till the afternoon session which was awesome.

* No 10 o'clock Reverse...early 30-minute BO (BD for Elliott)
* 10:30 Reverse Blip type pattern...I have 2 arrows showing what the opportunities were, and the risk.
* Beautiful Blip at 11 o'clock in the green zone...risking only 1 point and not taken out till 12:30 or 1 point which way your emotions led you. I would have gotten out at breakeven...hey! I'm fearful.
* 12 o'clock flop and 30-Min BO...(I know Elliott --- give me a break...inside joke folks.) It stopped on another type blip pattern telling us to look for a reverse.
* W pattern formed on the next move down off of a TT (Triple Top)...and in a zone that we expect it to move toward the low of the day. The W pattern had two opportunities that I pointed out. The first opportunity was of the blip type pattern during the 1:25 -- 1:35 Reverse...beautiful set-up just when your looking for the bullish bias opportunity and wanting to be a Contrarian. If you missed the first opportunity then you could take the breakout of the number 3 point on the W...just do the math if incorporated the Moving Average Strategy. By the way we had another 30-Min. BO on that W pattern to the downside...did you see it?
* After that last attempt to make to make a new high I suggested to once again become a Contrarian but we just ran out of day-light.

Your Thoughts...

Marsh

Quote for the day...

Not everyone can win all the time; obsessing about winning adds an unnecessary layer of pressure that constricts body and spirit and, ultimately, robs you of the freedom to do your best.

Questions to Emini Students

2005-03-17T11:01:00.000-05:00

In the last couple of weeks I've asked this question to whom ever was in the Paltalk and Hotcomm rooms;

1. What is the concept of day-trading Simple-as-123?

I was really surprised when no one could give me the correct answer.

2. What is your strategy for day-trading using this method?

I got some answers...a strategy here and there; but not a clear concise answer regarding the method.

3. My next question really floored me...how many of you have a plan (Like a Business Plan)? Some of you who I know have such a plan was not present at the time I asked.

I did not get an answer...not one.

4. How about this one...what is a reasonable expectation or goal for the day?

Answers like...as much as I can; 10 -- 12 points, I don't really know.

And then I asked how many contracts or trades are you going to make in a day?
I don't know, why?

1 contract, 2 contracts, 100 contracts...
No more than 3 trades a day...

Oh you read my manual I see. But most did not have a clue.

Now you know why 90% are likely to fail, or never get it. Here is my suggestion if you don't have a plan -- make one, at least try or ask. If you don't have a strategy then start with the 30-Minute Breakout on a 5 or 10-Minute chart using a 20-period Moving Average...just follow the concept and the rules for the set-up.

Well good luck...Prosper,

Marsh

Emini Day Trading Questions and Answers

2005-03-08T21:27:00.000-05:00

==========================
1. What strategies are using now?
=============================
Mainly the 30 minute B/O , and I look for after the first hour MA trade.

This is what I would have recommended for you also. Good choice if you are having problems. Here is a suggestion for now...only have a 1 point target; maybe 1-1/4.
===================================
2. Are you keeping a diary of your trades?
===================================
Yes, I keep a good one up until 11:30 then back again at 1:30 until 3:30

I'm not talking about a TradeLog here. I'm talking about your diary of wins and losses. That will give you the answers to your trades.

This Time Zone is highly recommended also...that's if you have experience papertrading it for a year or two...Not for Newbie's. You are missing the best time in this zone though...go back and look a few charts and you will see the opportunities that pop up betweent 1:00 -- 2:00. Very repetitious.

And it can take off right at 1:00 and of course stall or reverse at 1:25 -- 1:35. If you wait till after 1:30 you will miss them. Of course I don't recommend trading in the doldrums for newbie's; you know that. But you have a lot of experience. This zone will also give you many 30-Minute breakout trades.

I would recommend taking any 30-Minute breakout any time you see it with Mom...I don't have to tell you what you need take the trade; you are well versed on what we look for to make any safe trade.
======================
3. Are you PowerTrading?
======================
Power trading in the sense that I don't always have magic numbers (but they are close or moving in that direction).
==================================================
4. What is your anticipation when you pull the trigger...1-1/4 or more?
==================================================
My goal is 2 trades a day for 1.5 points each.

Like I said, lower your target...till I find out more about your trading diary.
==============================
5. How are you managing your risk?
===========================
I am using Stratergy Runner now and I have tried a few times with a stop that auto starts at 1.5 and advances 25 for each .25 price moves in my direction. I have not been able to trust myself with a market order stop. You know I should get out here but I see something on the chart that "makes " me think it will go in my direction. Okay...does not make me happy, but I guess I can live with it...

I recommend market orders using the Bid and Ask routine. It's not rocket science. ======================================================
6. When you analyze your trades...what seems to be the problem?
======================================================
My analaysis tells me most time I should be more patient on entry and wait on second time through for example.

Ther ya go...you answered your problem. Behavior modification...don't do that anymore.

I hate to admit it but my original trainning still gets in my way.

You need to focus on what we know works...use your disipline, follow the rules.

For example the 30 b/o trade was taught to me to cancel order if not filled by 10:10 (and we know(I think) it best not to enter trade until 10:10).

I am not recommending trading the 30-Minute Breaout till after the first hour. We can talk about this somemore after I ask you some more questions about your trading diary.

10:30 trade was based on open price at 10:30 and enter market (basically) +/- 2 points.Then the next trade was at 1:30 , but NEVER go short between 1:30 and 2:00

I have never said, nor written about not going short at 1 o'clock that I know of...in fact I recommend it for advanced students.

and then at 2:00

I have said many times not to be long at 2 o'clock but may be okay at 2:05.

go long or short off high or low of that 30 minute bar , but cancell order if not filled by 2:15.

All of your trades will be filled in less than 3-seconds...then when in your trade you would look for a profitable exit if you have reached your target in 5-Minutes ... if not then start to look for a profitable exit or breakeven trade and never losing more than 2 points...ever!

There were more trades (3:30) trade and most all these were what they said had were high probability trades

I agree...and if you just look for 1 point they should work...I don't recommend trading in the last hour unless you are an advanced trader though. Remember this...you are only taking 30-Minute Breakout trades, till you get this turned around...Right?

Plus he taught to let the market take you out of the trade

I only suggest let the market take you out if you are in a mega bullish or mega bearish trade and you are using a trailing stop...

and sometimes in the past I have risk and lost 3 or more points per trade. I remember my first big loss with him was what he calls a Negative Noon Balloon Trade. This is where the 1:30 to 2:00 bar is a down bar and the 2:00 open is less by 1 point than the 1:30 open. On this day the YM (mini dow) and NQ and ES all had NNB so I "called" and placed an order with them (he was my broker too) and he said it was setting up so good to sell 3 contracts with a stop above high of day (the usual stop for that trade) so that day I lost 4.5 points per contract. So maybe that explains the "brain cloud" I have.

Like I say all the time...most can't follow a method or system even if they wanted to. You have to forget his stuff, or follow it. If you like this method, then follow the rules.

Hope this give you all some insight if you are also having problems.

http://www.support-and-resistance.com/article1.html

Day Trading the Emini - Simple as 123

Easy Pickings

Day Trading Workshop for July

March 2006 mini Workshop Chart

March 2006 mini Workshop Chart

W Formation

More emini Workshop Commentary

Friday's e-mini Workshop

Thursday's eMini Class

Marsh is back!

A few tidbits..

All Power Trades today

Inclining wedge

M and W Patterns

Comments on Wednesday 4-27-05

Blips

Comments from Monday, 4-25-05

June 2005 Workshop Schedule.

World News

A question from April 15th, 2005

Some Observations from Thursday April 14th

Some observations on April 12th, 2005

More Questions and Answers

April 2005 Workshop - comments on today's class

Questions to Emini Students

Emini Day Trading Questions and Answers